WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2022 NFL MegaPod Super Wild Card Weekend Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:14.120 Check it down, Man, Down Man, Thursday morning, January two. 0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:17.040 It is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod live from 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:20.800 the d Our home for the Megapod. Each and every 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:24.160 week it is wild Card weekend. It is the playoffs. 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:28.240 Gill Alexander pumped to be here. Mikey Palm, the vice 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:30.600 president Operations and Circuit Sports alongside here at the d 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.760 Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, b A. 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:38.519 And our rotating guests first return guests unless we consider Parlay, 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:41.519 who like did one and a half our first returning 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:42.880 guests of the year. We do. The all Stars in 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:45.080 the playoffs is Drew Densick from the Deep Dive and 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:48.520 at the Edge podcast. How are you doing, Drew? I'm 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:52.720 doing terrifically well. Very excited for this playoff field. Um, 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:54.360 I'm not as excited as a guy who runs a 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:58.840 sports book like Mike, because these lines, these lines look tight, 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:01.880 and I got a funny feeling. You're doing a pretty 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.600 decent handle with some two action this week. But interested 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:07.720 to hear your takes. Well, let's start with Mikey, if 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:11.319 you could the final thing on your contest, both Circle 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:14.560 millions and survivor what a year was for both of those. Yeah, 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:16.880 we can start with the millions. And you know, it 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:20.360 was interesting because two gentlemen, each with two entries, were one, two, three, 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:23.759 four going into the last week, and they chose opposite approaches. 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.840 Hannibal Barka, who had had the lead and was in 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:29.680 first and third and had been going same picks, right, 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.679 identical cards all the way along, took identical cards the 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:37.400 last week and did not did not do well derbify. 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:41.560 Tony Gordon, who was in second and fourth, chose to 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.120 go appo. He picked his five games and went Apple 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:45.760 and did the worst he could do three and two 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.200 and two and three and still still one and still one. 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:50.480 So I don't want to kill anybody, because I'm sure 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:52.520 Hannibal Barker did a lot better than I did, and 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:55.360 I'm sure he's a wonderful person, But like has anybody 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:57.760 talked him afterwards about it and said, why did you 0:01:57.800 --> 0:01:59.720 do it? That? Isn't that why you have two entries? 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:01.880 So I think that all these guys are going to 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.400 be here tomorrow night in the ballroom at the d 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:06.360 when we give out the checks and actually pay them 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.520 and do interviews and i'm i'm I'm going to get 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:11.400 a chance to interview all the million dollar winners on stage, 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:13.160 and I want to talk to Hannibal Barkett. I know, 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:15.600 PSI was pretty rough with him on Twitter about well 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.680 not you know, but he's he's right, He's right, and 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:20.840 you know because that's why you have two entries, right 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:22.760 if you especially if you played it same way for 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.960 seventeen weeks and then U The interesting thing is the 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.040 mad Russian goes five and oh the last week, and 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:31.000 he actually tied derby five. It went to the tiebreaker. 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.880 They both went sixty three and twenty seven. The first 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:37.000 tiebreaker was how many winning weeks out of eighteen did 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:39.160 you have derb if I had seventeen out of eighteen 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.480 and and and mad Russian had fourteen, So he won. 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:47.680 That's the only position. There's the tiebreaker, right, Everything else 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:49.720 just share if you tie from the spot. One follow 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:51.680 up question on Hannibal market, did either of the two 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:55.000 entries finishing the money so no, he finished third at 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:58.560 sixty two, he finished a half game back at sixty 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:02.720 seven and one for two seventy five, and then he 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:06.079 had another entry um that got in the top ten 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:07.720 as or all or something like that got money as 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.959 he got over three hundred thousand. Hannibal Mark Yeah yeah, right, okay, 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:13.760 and then derb if I got one million and then 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.800 fifty thousand. His other entry that went two in three 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.560 fell down a bit, but it is amazing and that 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.240 that's this side of it. The Quarterly. The quarterly winner 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:26.840 went twenty two and three to get singularly get the seventy. 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:29.040 You guys happy that you did the quarterlies this year 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.440 for Booby as well? The Booby I think that was 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:36.080 the best edition was doing the quarterly Booby Prize. Yeah. Absolutely, 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:38.040 But if you had to bed, even if you were 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.360 you had to make a decision. Let's say two weeks 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.360 into the quarter you're you know, two and eight, but 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:46.400 you're still like in the Hunt for the Top fifty, 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:50.200 do you go for right? It forces you. But Joe 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:51.960 is my dear friend. But I even said I had 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:53.600 him on a numbers game. I said him because he 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:55.680 said he goes. You know, I did the I got 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:58.160 one in four the first week of the quarterly. That 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:00.960 was trying to do well. But then once I had 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:02.680 the one in four, I tried to do bad and 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:04.680 I went oh and five oh and five, oh one 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:06.560 and fourth then and I'm like, how do you try 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:08.760 to do bad if you could if they picked the 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:12.280 opposite of their picks, But then if you're that I mean, 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.160 I understand, I love I love that he won, But 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.680 it's like, then don't you have to have some kind 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:19.680 of regret that if you were that good at being bad, 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.359 you could have been bye bye? It follows that you 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.159 could have been that good being good, right, So yeah, 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:27.039 but he just had a bad week, Gilly. So once 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:29.440 he had that bad week, he he he targeted the 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.039 other side. I mean, he was still trying to do 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.240 he was trying to pick winners both ways. He was 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.800 still using this process. Now unless you think you can 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:39.800 still win the big deal, the guy Jiggy Jack, that 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:42.320 was the clear winner of the Booby Prize for the season. 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:44.239 They had him on following the Money this Morning, Minchon 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.440 and Maddie. It's interesting he didn't decide to go for 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.320 the bottom until after week seven. He started out, he 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:53.400 started out three and two, then he had a two 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.440 and three, and then in week seven he went oh 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:57.520 in five and decided to go oppo his picks. In 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:59.520 the week A, the extually went three and two, but 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:01.760 then he in on a run of eight, eight and 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:05.359 thirty seven over the next week. But has anybody figured 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:07.400 out if he had gone thirty seven? And what do 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.839 you have made the top fifty? Have made the top fifty, 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:15.479 because that's what I would say, No, in the top fifty. Yeah, 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:18.040 the Booby Prize was was like being seventh, right, it 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:20.520 was a hundred thousand and something like that. It's so 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.560 hard to get in the top fifty once you have 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:24.679 a bad weekly that what did you end up? Todd 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.520 In you ended up with a one unforce I ended 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:32.560 up fifty and forty West West and too far out 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:34.440 of the money, right, and then West was telling me, 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:36.640 he goes, we we feel like we did everything right. 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.640 PAULI Howard finished one game out of the money. They 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:41.880 finished like tied for fifty eight or whatever it was. 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:47.200 Though you need tremendous luck. Does this make sense from 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:49.480 a game theory standpoint? Like there's two aspects. You want 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.720 winning picks, but you also want to be differentiated from 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:55.360 the field, right, And if you are winning picks are 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.159 also sort of consensus or at least kind of top 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:02.840 you know, just generally broadly picked going APO would give 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:08.800 you not very likely unlikely picked and also potentially losing. Right, 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.880 So there is you know, if you are picking kind 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:15.400 of you know, if in general you're with the with 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:19.640 the majority on your winning quote unquote, your high plus 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:22.080 TV picks and you go apo those, you should be 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:24.719 in the minority with your losing picksures she would have 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.200 a better chance at getting a Booby prize than landing 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:32.039 in the winning and all right, and all of that 0:06:32.120 --> 0:06:39.120 assumes you have the skill level right two to to 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.040 to like be able to manipulate that to do well 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:44.440 or to do poorly. Right, sure if I'm understanding, because 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:47.279 speaking as the guy who won the a t S 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:49.479 on this year podcast for the regular season, thank you 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.440 very much. I just want to say that if I 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.120 tried to get a five and oh I'm equally like Drew, 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.039 I could try and get a three and two and 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:57.600 I could not try and get a three and two. 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:59.000 And I could try and get it two and three 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:00.839 and I could not try and get like I Still 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.000 people who are are tanking are still using the games 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:07.440 they picked. Just get an opposite team. Right, here's a 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:09.200 good example, Like you got to get hot either way, 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:11.679 you got to get hot. Either way. Yeah. Yeah, But 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:15.280 but if you're going for the win and there is 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:18.640 an easy pick on the board because quarterbacks scratched and 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:22.800 you have seven points of wind value contest versus closing market, 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.960 when you're putting your picks in outside going opo that 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.080 no one is picking that you are going to only 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:31.200 people going for that are the people going for the 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.880 Booby prize. You're in a very small pool of people 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:36.920 who are getting your likely losers. So you can juice 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:40.720 your you can juice your pot losing more easily than 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:46.160 you can um differential yourself winning. But remember Gregor Richard 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:50.520 Baker talked about this last year, um saying in the 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:54.120 last five weeks they would go and play the opposite 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:56.440 of the state a line moves because they knew that 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.280 because they needed they had to make up games and 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:02.160 the lines. Well, obvious example was the Vikings right with Cousins, 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.560 and we had the most people ever picked the Packers 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:06.200 off the six and a half point difference in the 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.760 contest to the closing line people. You would you would 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:11.440 have taken the Vikings that week if you're trying to 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:13.920 make up ground. Yeah, that's a gift if you take 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:15.680 trying to go for the good booby price because you 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:17.840 were you were among ten people that pick the Vikings 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:19.840 millions is going to be the exact same next year, right, 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:21.800 there's no charge. Now, I don't think there'll be any changes. 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:24.880 Survivor maybe I don't know. And survivor, we had five winners. 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:27.560 Five I mean those that came out of the Sunday 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:29.800 after Christmas. They survived the last two weeks and so 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:31.920 one point two million. Three of the five got the 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.160 bonus for having used to one of the last year 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:36.040 Super Bowl teams, either the Chiefs of the Bucks the 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:40.520 last we did anyone do a spincter check on the 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.000 on the two guys with the Kansas City when I 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:49.000 was when down to put it in the Chiefs are 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:52.439 gonna lose. I I was with one of them, right, 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.880 because he was with Derek and I on Saturday watching 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:58.120 the game. Remember, he did not only not hedge, he 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:00.839 asked for an alternate line chief minus twenty and a 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:03.640 half plus two forty and he bet it. I mean, 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:06.000 what do you even like? What do you even say 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.160 to that? Like? Good for you? Because he said, I 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:09.640 don't know what you're doing. But all right, he did 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:12.720 not believe that he the hedgean was was bad juju 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.240 against your pick. He had saved Kansas City all year 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:21.560 for that spot. Bad Juju was very scientific. Now here's 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:23.200 what we do know. But we only know what they 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:26.000 bet with us, right, But we know he didn't. We 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:28.240 know the other guy that had Kansas City made a 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.240 money line bet on the Broncos with us. We don't 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:35.440 know what the guy with the Buccaneers did because he 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:37.360 may have hedged somewhere else, but he didn't do anything 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:43.480 with us. We know that, um, the player, the player 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:46.280 that had the Wolfdie guy made a significant hedge both 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:48.839 on the Giants plus the points and the Giants money line. 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:51.599 Giants shouldn't all five of those? I mean, this was 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:53.280 not like the Joe Peter came on the show with 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:56.280 twenty eight survivors left and talked about how is a 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.760 Wall Street guy, how he wanted to manipulate it so 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:01.959 we lose equity week after week after week. That's a 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.440 little more complicated. That's different. It's multi leveled. This is 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:08.480 the last week of the season. They all had five 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.200 big favorites. Isn't the play for all of them? Just 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:13.760 the underdog plus the points? End of story? That would 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.320 have been worked out perfect with the Broncos, right, I mean, 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:19.320 knew had the biggest scoop of all. But then on 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.920 Sunday they did bet the money line parley of their 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:28.520 opponents teams, right, yes, which was what Peter was doing 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:30.880 as well. Because they were already in the house with 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.079 the with the Chiefs, so they knew they were getting 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:35.040 a share line. It was a lot easier to figure 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:38.839 that out right. The math on that they got Lucky though, 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:40.640 because they didn't know before the season started that the 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:42.719 Chiefs were going to be on Saturday. They know, they 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:44.560 had no idea, but what a great break it was 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.040 for them that they got the game on Saturday. Did 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:50.000 they know Drew luck decided to be a regular quarterback Saturday? 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.839 Because I'm sure they was. I'm sure they were getting 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:56.440 a little bit nervous by the way that shoulder throw 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.959 was unbelievably bad. When, oh my god, Todd, I thought 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:02.200 the key though, was the roughing the punter. I thought 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.800 the crowd had already turned on Drew Lock after the 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:07.640 horrific first two drives, and the crowd was just the 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:09.640 roughing the punter changed the whole game. It got the 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:11.959 crowd back into the game, and then I just felt 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:13.719 that was good. I said, that's probably the putter is 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:16.079 gonna cost you one point five three million night, But 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.280 they get the whole game? Was that one play? Right? 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:19.920 What chances you have gone for two to go up 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:23.720 nine and that spot and a million? Never in a 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:25.760 million years. But let me ask you, because what was 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:28.640 the guy doing? What was the guy doing when they 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:34.080 were driving down there? Were you with him watching? He was? 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.240 Was he losing his money? At halftime? I moved a 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:39.319 little further away. Yeah, you can't. It's because I wanted to. 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:45.960 I just you know, I was reacting. Was he freak? 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:49.040 He was frustrated. It was very frun He was very 0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:51.120 frustrated that Lock was playing so well. That was what 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:53.839 he was most frustrated with. He said, where if you 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:58.840 could do an in game seven? He watched, He watched 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.840 every time we posted the end game the endgame numbers. 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.400 But you know he wasn't gonna bite. That was that 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:08.120 was his thing. That was his things. Yeah, what was 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:15.080 the best price he could have gotten? H Actually when 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:19.560 the when Denver was driving um, when Denver was driving 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:23.480 there before that fumble, they actually they actually were one 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.360 and a half point favorite in that spot. That was 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:28.600 the worst of it, right, that was the worst. That 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:30.920 was the worst of it. Think think of I mean, 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:32.880 but now that we have like some but he after 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.480 after the Chiefs went out ahead in the game, he 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.400 he actually had the number back up to where he 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.040 could have got off the twenty and a half, right, 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:40.800 because then I think the number was like eighteen or 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:43.280 nineteen and a half at that point. Yeah, to see 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.439 a question, what if somebody had Indianapolis Colt. Nobody had 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.320 them because they had all been used off. Can you 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:53.680 imagine if somebody had just think about that, you would 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.840 have lost your mind because they totally would have been Yes, 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:01.160 they totally. Yeah. Well if you just cover yourself with 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.560 the money line Jags with the tie in uh in 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.240 the in the Chargers game. Yeah, of course you're covering. 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:10.400 Everyone knows that cover Jagson's eyes the way to go. 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:14.360 It's easy. Oh my god. They bet that tie down here. 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:16.560 They bet the tie in that game down to eleven 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.640 and a half to one. Wow. The tie start was 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.720 a nine figure It was a nine figure sports book 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.880 um exposure for us and part of that for us. 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:28.400 How much was it for you guys? It would say 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:33.640 high six, high high six. That's just one place. Yeah, no, 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.440 I get it. So they all start out a hundred 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.920 seventy to one. Basically in that range, Tie is somewhere 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:44.600 between a hundred one. After the Colts lost, we moved 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.480 it down to thirty five to one because it came 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:48.199 into play and they bet it down to eleven and 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.640 a half. And you know what, the people that were 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:56.240 doing the Jags money line with the tie Parlay's right, 0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:01.760 that's a correlated parlay, but they were doing had one 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.480 for over I believe. But that shouldn't have been you know, 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.160 it's a sports book. Yeah, there's too much cause and 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:08.920 effect there. And by the way, I will go to 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:10.679 my grave. I don't want to do like thirty minutes 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:12.320 on this because we've done enough on radio about it, 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.439 but I will go to my grave thinking with the 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:18.200 Raiders that they slowed that pace down. It didn't look 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.120 like there was any urgency at all. And in the end, 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:25.080 whether Brandon's Daily called the time out or not, I 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.280 think the Raiders were just gonna do whatever the result 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.000 of that play was. If they got two yards, I'm 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:31.640 not so sure they kicked the field goal at the 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:35.240 end Let's say, by the way, what about Syrianni. Nobody 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.600 even said one thing about the risk of kicking a 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.960 field goal there. I still don't understand why you kick 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:45.360 a field goal there, because when you want to, I 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:48.120 don't care if they were thinking about that at all. 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.280 Here's a crazy no, here's a crazy question for you 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.760 about the bookmaking side of things. And the nine figure 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.760 liability that I brought up. Let's assume that that's right. 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.600 Let's hundred million dollars was a stick for the big 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.480 boys in the East Coast on this That's two weeks 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:06.880 of ad revenue. But they have been spending this fall 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:11.480 on NFL weekends. They're spending fifty million a weekend advertising. Okay, 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:17.680 So the liability is is two weekends of running ads. Okay. 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.560 If that's a national story, if it's like, oh my god, 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.960 the sports books lost a hundred million dollars on this one, 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.960 you know, doesn't that entice? Like everybody reads it and 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:28.680 they're like, well, I gotta get involved in this. Books 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.120 are making errors. I mean, like, is it even that 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:35.680 big of a deal, that bad of a thing being 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.840 on NFL games? True? Is there anybody left who's not 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:44.400 betting on NFL games in the world. I saw you 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.880 saw what they were given bonuses in New York. Apparently 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:51.280 there's apparently there's a there's there's customer acquisitions. They're just 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.480 trying to each other. They're just trying to steal each 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.040 other's customers. But I don't think there's anybody else who 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.240 doesn't know they're gonna have a sports book already. Is 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:01.200 it getting ridiculous? There's a commercial every seconds alright. How 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.280 they're working on that at the American Gaming Association just 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.640 had a big conference call yesterday about that, just like 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.520 the fantasy DFS thing when it started. You know that 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:15.840 the objection from the research um to the sports advertising 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:20.120 not necessarily the frequency of it, but the exposure to 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:24.320 to miners is the bigger objects I would imagine. So 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.120 from the research, here's another objection. If the girl from 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.520 the Lily commercials on one more time, I'm going to 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:38.840 kill myself. She's a world does the commercial have to 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.520 be it's on more than the than the gambling commercials. 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.880 So it's like if while you're there, Mikey, when you're 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.240 at the gaming place by the way, throwing the lily, 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:50.440 Lily can't be on more than one every three commercials 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.080 because she's driving me crazy. They're Toody, I gotta step 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:54.840 in here because Mike's gotta go. We gotta start with 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:58.040 this soap todd Our records for the regular season were 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:03.240 Jilly Ice with the regular season victory at twenty eight 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:06.000 and twenty six after a nice two and one, a 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.240 nice two in one week. He got hot late in 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:12.400 the season. His beloved organization, the Woof, he's covered for him. 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.840 He did have the Chargers in the Sunday nighter, and 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.520 then he did get quite fortunate in that Niners game. Um, 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:22.800 Mikey went, oh, I needed it too. I was with you. 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.359 I was very fortunate too. I did either of us 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:30.080 think that Jimmy g was going eight nine yards. I 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:32.400 didn't think I was doing it, and I needed him. 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.800 Mikey went, oh, in three h with the Philadelphia Eagles 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.560 that didn't really decide to play, very unfortunate in the 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:43.800 Rams Niners game that we just talked about, and the 0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:46.879 Chiefs minus ten, which we also talked about. So Mikey 0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:51.120 go and one. I went one and two and finished 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.720 at twenty two and thirty two. In the teaser category, 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:57.000 which is the ever more important category, went. Of course, 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.720 of course, I actually lost my teaser to go to 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:02.880 a leven in seven. Mikey one is teaser and one 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:06.119 of the most fortunate teaser wins in the history of 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:10.320 teaser wins when the Atlanta Falcons and and the Iceman 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:13.440 on fourth and ten somehow punched it in and he 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.520 got the Atlanta plus ten and a half. So he 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.719 goes ten seven and one on teasers. Gilly also with 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:22.520 a win at nine eight and one in teasers. So 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.120 now we continue the records. We continue the records. Yes, 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.320 we continue with all the records. That's right. So the 0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:29.920 questions are we doing three picks and a teaser again 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:32.040 this week? A lot of game three to three picks 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.160 in a teaser because there's six games drew your first 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:39.639 best bet, sir sider total. Oh Jesus, this card is 0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.640 so tough. I'm gonna go with the side. I'm gonna 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:48.720 take the l a rams here. Um, I've I don't 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.720 have a strong angle. I just know that there's only 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:53.720 one chance I will have in my life to fade 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:57.160 Cliff Kingsbury in his first ever playoff game and maybe 0:18:57.160 --> 0:19:00.359 his only ever playoff game. I do not believe even 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.440 the pieces around Kyler Murray. I do not believe in 0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:06.080 the coaching. Uh really on both sides of the ball. 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:08.440 I knows advance Joseph has made, you know, has made 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:10.800 have come He's come up with a couple of pretty 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:14.600 solid game plans this season. Um. But overall against this 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:17.080 Rams team that has so many players available in the 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:20.240 past catching uh and uh, you know Stafford at home 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.879 relatively comfortable confines there, I do think the Rams are 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.800 gonna be able to put up thirty points in this one. Uh. 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.280 And I don't love the ability for Kyler Murray to 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:34.159 play comeback mode if it comes to that. I'm not 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.440 buying the impact that J. J. Watt is gonna be 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.679 able to make after having missed the last ten plus 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:43.760 ish weeks. Uh. And realistically, this is the only game 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.159 that I see across the board that I think is 0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:48.800 lined like it's going to be a competitive contest. But 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:52.440 I have a long tail to the favorite covering with margin, 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.520 So I'll say Rams minus four unless you're gonna give 0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:58.360 me consensus three and a half. I know it's three 0:19:58.359 --> 0:19:59.840 and a half, only had a couple of spots, but 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.879 yeah for Aaron Shots, the founder of Football Outsiders, is 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:07.840 on the numbers game this morning. That is the one 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.440 favorite he likes as well, giving the points the only 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:14.639 favorite he liked. The only favorite he likes giving the points. Yeah, uh, 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.240