Speaker 1: Check it down, Man, Down Man, Thursday morning, January two.
Speaker 1: It is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod live from
Speaker 1: the d Our home for the Megapod. Each and every
Speaker 1: week it is wild Card weekend. It is the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Gill Alexander pumped to be here. Mikey Palm, the vice
Speaker 1: president Operations and Circuit Sports alongside here at the d
Speaker 1: Todd Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, b A.
Speaker 1: And our rotating guests first return guests unless we consider Parlay,
Speaker 1: who like did one and a half our first returning
Speaker 1: guests of the year. We do. The all Stars in
Speaker 1: the playoffs is Drew Densick from the Deep Dive and
Speaker 1: at the Edge podcast. How are you doing, Drew? I'm
Speaker 1: doing terrifically well. Very excited for this playoff field. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm not as excited as a guy who runs a
Speaker 1: sports book like Mike, because these lines, these lines look tight,
Speaker 1: and I got a funny feeling. You're doing a pretty
Speaker 1: decent handle with some two action this week. But interested
Speaker 1: to hear your takes. Well, let's start with Mikey, if
Speaker 1: you could the final thing on your contest, both Circle
Speaker 1: millions and survivor what a year was for both of those. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we can start with the millions. And you know, it
Speaker 1: was interesting because two gentlemen, each with two entries, were one, two, three,
Speaker 1: four going into the last week, and they chose opposite approaches.
Speaker 1: Hannibal Barka, who had had the lead and was in
Speaker 1: first and third and had been going same picks, right,
Speaker 1: identical cards all the way along, took identical cards the
Speaker 1: last week and did not did not do well derbify.
Speaker 1: Tony Gordon, who was in second and fourth, chose to
Speaker 1: go appo. He picked his five games and went Apple
Speaker 1: and did the worst he could do three and two
Speaker 1: and two and three and still still one and still one.
Speaker 1: So I don't want to kill anybody, because I'm sure
Speaker 1: Hannibal Barker did a lot better than I did, and
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's a wonderful person, But like has anybody
Speaker 1: talked him afterwards about it and said, why did you
Speaker 1: do it? That? Isn't that why you have two entries?
Speaker 1: So I think that all these guys are going to
Speaker 1: be here tomorrow night in the ballroom at the d
Speaker 1: when we give out the checks and actually pay them
Speaker 1: and do interviews and i'm i'm I'm going to get
Speaker 1: a chance to interview all the million dollar winners on stage,
Speaker 1: and I want to talk to Hannibal Barkett. I know,
Speaker 1: PSI was pretty rough with him on Twitter about well
Speaker 1: not you know, but he's he's right, He's right, and
Speaker 1: you know because that's why you have two entries, right
Speaker 1: if you especially if you played it same way for
Speaker 1: seventeen weeks and then U The interesting thing is the
Speaker 1: mad Russian goes five and oh the last week, and
Speaker 1: he actually tied derby five. It went to the tiebreaker.
Speaker 1: They both went sixty three and twenty seven. The first
Speaker 1: tiebreaker was how many winning weeks out of eighteen did
Speaker 1: you have derb if I had seventeen out of eighteen
Speaker 1: and and and mad Russian had fourteen, So he won.
Speaker 1: That's the only position. There's the tiebreaker, right, Everything else
Speaker 1: just share if you tie from the spot. One follow
Speaker 1: up question on Hannibal market, did either of the two
Speaker 1: entries finishing the money so no, he finished third at
Speaker 1: sixty two, he finished a half game back at sixty
Speaker 1: seven and one for two seventy five, and then he
Speaker 1: had another entry um that got in the top ten
Speaker 1: as or all or something like that got money as
Speaker 1: he got over three hundred thousand. Hannibal Mark Yeah yeah, right, okay,
Speaker 1: and then derb if I got one million and then
Speaker 1: fifty thousand. His other entry that went two in three
Speaker 1: fell down a bit, but it is amazing and that
Speaker 1: that's this side of it. The Quarterly. The quarterly winner
Speaker 1: went twenty two and three to get singularly get the seventy.
Speaker 1: You guys happy that you did the quarterlies this year
Speaker 1: for Booby as well? The Booby I think that was
Speaker 1: the best edition was doing the quarterly Booby Prize. Yeah. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: But if you had to bed, even if you were
Speaker 1: you had to make a decision. Let's say two weeks
Speaker 1: into the quarter you're you know, two and eight, but
Speaker 1: you're still like in the Hunt for the Top fifty,
Speaker 1: do you go for right? It forces you. But Joe
Speaker 1: is my dear friend. But I even said I had
Speaker 1: him on a numbers game. I said him because he
Speaker 1: said he goes. You know, I did the I got
Speaker 1: one in four the first week of the quarterly. That
Speaker 1: was trying to do well. But then once I had
Speaker 1: the one in four, I tried to do bad and
Speaker 1: I went oh and five oh and five, oh one
Speaker 1: and fourth then and I'm like, how do you try
Speaker 1: to do bad if you could if they picked the
Speaker 1: opposite of their picks, But then if you're that I mean,
Speaker 1: I understand, I love I love that he won, But
Speaker 1: it's like, then don't you have to have some kind
Speaker 1: of regret that if you were that good at being bad,
Speaker 1: you could have been bye bye? It follows that you
Speaker 1: could have been that good being good, right, So yeah,
Speaker 1: but he just had a bad week, Gilly. So once
Speaker 1: he had that bad week, he he he targeted the
Speaker 1: other side. I mean, he was still trying to do
Speaker 1: he was trying to pick winners both ways. He was
Speaker 1: still using this process. Now unless you think you can
Speaker 1: still win the big deal, the guy Jiggy Jack, that
Speaker 1: was the clear winner of the Booby Prize for the season.
Speaker 1: They had him on following the Money this Morning, Minchon
Speaker 1: and Maddie. It's interesting he didn't decide to go for
Speaker 1: the bottom until after week seven. He started out, he
Speaker 1: started out three and two, then he had a two
Speaker 1: and three, and then in week seven he went oh
Speaker 1: in five and decided to go oppo his picks. In
Speaker 1: the week A, the extually went three and two, but
Speaker 1: then he in on a run of eight, eight and
Speaker 1: thirty seven over the next week. But has anybody figured
Speaker 1: out if he had gone thirty seven? And what do
Speaker 1: you have made the top fifty? Have made the top fifty,
Speaker 1: because that's what I would say, No, in the top fifty. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Booby Prize was was like being seventh, right, it
Speaker 1: was a hundred thousand and something like that. It's so
Speaker 1: hard to get in the top fifty once you have
Speaker 1: a bad weekly that what did you end up? Todd
Speaker 1: In you ended up with a one unforce I ended
Speaker 1: up fifty and forty West West and too far out
Speaker 1: of the money, right, and then West was telling me,
Speaker 1: he goes, we we feel like we did everything right.
Speaker 1: PAULI Howard finished one game out of the money. They
Speaker 1: finished like tied for fifty eight or whatever it was.
Speaker 1: Though you need tremendous luck. Does this make sense from
Speaker 1: a game theory standpoint? Like there's two aspects. You want
Speaker 1: winning picks, but you also want to be differentiated from
Speaker 1: the field, right, And if you are winning picks are
Speaker 1: also sort of consensus or at least kind of top
Speaker 1: you know, just generally broadly picked going APO would give
Speaker 1: you not very likely unlikely picked and also potentially losing. Right,
Speaker 1: So there is you know, if you are picking kind
Speaker 1: of you know, if in general you're with the with
Speaker 1: the majority on your winning quote unquote, your high plus
Speaker 1: TV picks and you go apo those, you should be
Speaker 1: in the minority with your losing picksures she would have
Speaker 1: a better chance at getting a Booby prize than landing
Speaker 1: in the winning and all right, and all of that
Speaker 1: assumes you have the skill level right two to to
Speaker 1: to like be able to manipulate that to do well
Speaker 1: or to do poorly. Right, sure if I'm understanding, because
Speaker 1: speaking as the guy who won the a t S
Speaker 1: on this year podcast for the regular season, thank you
Speaker 1: very much. I just want to say that if I
Speaker 1: tried to get a five and oh I'm equally like Drew,
Speaker 1: I could try and get a three and two and
Speaker 1: I could not try and get a three and two.
Speaker 1: And I could try and get it two and three
Speaker 1: and I could not try and get like I Still
Speaker 1: people who are are tanking are still using the games
Speaker 1: they picked. Just get an opposite team. Right, here's a
Speaker 1: good example, Like you got to get hot either way,
Speaker 1: you got to get hot. Either way. Yeah. Yeah, But
Speaker 1: but if you're going for the win and there is
Speaker 1: an easy pick on the board because quarterbacks scratched and
Speaker 1: you have seven points of wind value contest versus closing market,
Speaker 1: when you're putting your picks in outside going opo that
Speaker 1: no one is picking that you are going to only
Speaker 1: people going for that are the people going for the
Speaker 1: Booby prize. You're in a very small pool of people
Speaker 1: who are getting your likely losers. So you can juice
Speaker 1: your you can juice your pot losing more easily than
Speaker 1: you can um differential yourself winning. But remember Gregor Richard
Speaker 1: Baker talked about this last year, um saying in the
Speaker 1: last five weeks they would go and play the opposite
Speaker 1: of the state a line moves because they knew that
Speaker 1: because they needed they had to make up games and
Speaker 1: the lines. Well, obvious example was the Vikings right with Cousins,
Speaker 1: and we had the most people ever picked the Packers
Speaker 1: off the six and a half point difference in the
Speaker 1: contest to the closing line people. You would you would
Speaker 1: have taken the Vikings that week if you're trying to
Speaker 1: make up ground. Yeah, that's a gift if you take
Speaker 1: trying to go for the good booby price because you
Speaker 1: were you were among ten people that pick the Vikings
Speaker 1: millions is going to be the exact same next year, right,
Speaker 1: there's no charge. Now, I don't think there'll be any changes.
Speaker 1: Survivor maybe I don't know. And survivor, we had five winners.
Speaker 1: Five I mean those that came out of the Sunday
Speaker 1: after Christmas. They survived the last two weeks and so
Speaker 1: one point two million. Three of the five got the
Speaker 1: bonus for having used to one of the last year
Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams, either the Chiefs of the Bucks the
Speaker 1: last we did anyone do a spincter check on the
Speaker 1: on the two guys with the Kansas City when I
Speaker 1: was when down to put it in the Chiefs are
Speaker 1: gonna lose. I I was with one of them, right,
Speaker 1: because he was with Derek and I on Saturday watching
Speaker 1: the game. Remember, he did not only not hedge, he
Speaker 1: asked for an alternate line chief minus twenty and a
Speaker 1: half plus two forty and he bet it. I mean,
Speaker 1: what do you even like? What do you even say
Speaker 1: to that? Like? Good for you? Because he said, I
Speaker 1: don't know what you're doing. But all right, he did
Speaker 1: not believe that he the hedgean was was bad juju
Speaker 1: against your pick. He had saved Kansas City all year
Speaker 1: for that spot. Bad Juju was very scientific. Now here's
Speaker 1: what we do know. But we only know what they
Speaker 1: bet with us, right, But we know he didn't. We
Speaker 1: know the other guy that had Kansas City made a
Speaker 1: money line bet on the Broncos with us. We don't
Speaker 1: know what the guy with the Buccaneers did because he
Speaker 1: may have hedged somewhere else, but he didn't do anything
Speaker 1: with us. We know that, um, the player, the player
Speaker 1: that had the Wolfdie guy made a significant hedge both
Speaker 1: on the Giants plus the points and the Giants money line.
Speaker 1: Giants shouldn't all five of those? I mean, this was
Speaker 1: not like the Joe Peter came on the show with
Speaker 1: twenty eight survivors left and talked about how is a
Speaker 1: Wall Street guy, how he wanted to manipulate it so
Speaker 1: we lose equity week after week after week. That's a
Speaker 1: little more complicated. That's different. It's multi leveled. This is
Speaker 1: the last week of the season. They all had five
Speaker 1: big favorites. Isn't the play for all of them? Just
Speaker 1: the underdog plus the points? End of story? That would
Speaker 1: have been worked out perfect with the Broncos, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: knew had the biggest scoop of all. But then on
Speaker 1: Sunday they did bet the money line parley of their
Speaker 1: opponents teams, right, yes, which was what Peter was doing
Speaker 1: as well. Because they were already in the house with
Speaker 1: the with the Chiefs, so they knew they were getting
Speaker 1: a share line. It was a lot easier to figure
Speaker 1: that out right. The math on that they got Lucky though,
Speaker 1: because they didn't know before the season started that the
Speaker 1: Chiefs were going to be on Saturday. They know, they
Speaker 1: had no idea, but what a great break it was
Speaker 1: for them that they got the game on Saturday. Did
Speaker 1: they know Drew luck decided to be a regular quarterback Saturday?
Speaker 1: Because I'm sure they was. I'm sure they were getting
Speaker 1: a little bit nervous by the way that shoulder throw
Speaker 1: was unbelievably bad. When, oh my god, Todd, I thought
Speaker 1: the key though, was the roughing the punter. I thought
Speaker 1: the crowd had already turned on Drew Lock after the
Speaker 1: horrific first two drives, and the crowd was just the
Speaker 1: roughing the punter changed the whole game. It got the
Speaker 1: crowd back into the game, and then I just felt
Speaker 1: that was good. I said, that's probably the putter is
Speaker 1: gonna cost you one point five three million night, But
Speaker 1: they get the whole game? Was that one play? Right?
Speaker 1: What chances you have gone for two to go up
Speaker 1: nine and that spot and a million? Never in a
Speaker 1: million years. But let me ask you, because what was
Speaker 1: the guy doing? What was the guy doing when they
Speaker 1: were driving down there? Were you with him watching? He was?
Speaker 1: Was he losing his money? At halftime? I moved a
Speaker 1: little further away. Yeah, you can't. It's because I wanted to.
Speaker 1: I just you know, I was reacting. Was he freak?
Speaker 1: He was frustrated. It was very frun He was very
Speaker 1: frustrated that Lock was playing so well. That was what
Speaker 1: he was most frustrated with. He said, where if you
Speaker 1: could do an in game seven? He watched, He watched
Speaker 1: every time we posted the end game the endgame numbers.
Speaker 1: But you know he wasn't gonna bite. That was that
Speaker 1: was his thing. That was his things. Yeah, what was
Speaker 1: the best price he could have gotten? H Actually when
Speaker 1: the when Denver was driving um, when Denver was driving
Speaker 1: there before that fumble, they actually they actually were one
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite in that spot. That was
Speaker 1: the worst of it, right, that was the worst. That
Speaker 1: was the worst of it. Think think of I mean,
Speaker 1: but now that we have like some but he after
Speaker 1: after the Chiefs went out ahead in the game, he
Speaker 1: he actually had the number back up to where he
Speaker 1: could have got off the twenty and a half, right,
Speaker 1: because then I think the number was like eighteen or
Speaker 1: nineteen and a half at that point. Yeah, to see
Speaker 1: a question, what if somebody had Indianapolis Colt. Nobody had
Speaker 1: them because they had all been used off. Can you
Speaker 1: imagine if somebody had just think about that, you would
Speaker 1: have lost your mind because they totally would have been Yes,
Speaker 1: they totally. Yeah. Well if you just cover yourself with
Speaker 1: the money line Jags with the tie in uh in
Speaker 1: the in the Chargers game. Yeah, of course you're covering.
Speaker 1: Everyone knows that cover Jagson's eyes the way to go.
Speaker 1: It's easy. Oh my god. They bet that tie down here.
Speaker 1: They bet the tie in that game down to eleven
Speaker 1: and a half to one. Wow. The tie start was
Speaker 1: a nine figure It was a nine figure sports book
Speaker 1: um exposure for us and part of that for us.
Speaker 1: How much was it for you guys? It would say
Speaker 1: high six, high high six. That's just one place. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: I get it. So they all start out a hundred
Speaker 1: seventy to one. Basically in that range, Tie is somewhere
Speaker 1: between a hundred one. After the Colts lost, we moved
Speaker 1: it down to thirty five to one because it came
Speaker 1: into play and they bet it down to eleven and
Speaker 1: a half. And you know what, the people that were
Speaker 1: doing the Jags money line with the tie Parlay's right,
Speaker 1: that's a correlated parlay, but they were doing had one
Speaker 1: for over I believe. But that shouldn't have been you know,
Speaker 1: it's a sports book. Yeah, there's too much cause and
Speaker 1: effect there. And by the way, I will go to
Speaker 1: my grave. I don't want to do like thirty minutes
Speaker 1: on this because we've done enough on radio about it,
Speaker 1: but I will go to my grave thinking with the
Speaker 1: Raiders that they slowed that pace down. It didn't look
Speaker 1: like there was any urgency at all. And in the end,
Speaker 1: whether Brandon's Daily called the time out or not, I
Speaker 1: think the Raiders were just gonna do whatever the result
Speaker 1: of that play was. If they got two yards, I'm
Speaker 1: not so sure they kicked the field goal at the
Speaker 1: end Let's say, by the way, what about Syrianni. Nobody
Speaker 1: even said one thing about the risk of kicking a
Speaker 1: field goal there. I still don't understand why you kick
Speaker 1: a field goal there, because when you want to, I
Speaker 1: don't care if they were thinking about that at all.
Speaker 1: Here's a crazy no, here's a crazy question for you
Speaker 1: about the bookmaking side of things. And the nine figure
Speaker 1: liability that I brought up. Let's assume that that's right.
Speaker 1: Let's hundred million dollars was a stick for the big
Speaker 1: boys in the East Coast on this That's two weeks
Speaker 1: of ad revenue. But they have been spending this fall
Speaker 1: on NFL weekends. They're spending fifty million a weekend advertising. Okay,
Speaker 1: So the liability is is two weekends of running ads. Okay.
Speaker 1: If that's a national story, if it's like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: the sports books lost a hundred million dollars on this one,
Speaker 1: you know, doesn't that entice? Like everybody reads it and
Speaker 1: they're like, well, I gotta get involved in this. Books
Speaker 1: are making errors. I mean, like, is it even that
Speaker 1: big of a deal, that bad of a thing being
Speaker 1: on NFL games? True? Is there anybody left who's not
Speaker 1: betting on NFL games in the world. I saw you
Speaker 1: saw what they were given bonuses in New York. Apparently
Speaker 1: there's apparently there's a there's there's customer acquisitions. They're just
Speaker 1: trying to each other. They're just trying to steal each
Speaker 1: other's customers. But I don't think there's anybody else who
Speaker 1: doesn't know they're gonna have a sports book already. Is
Speaker 1: it getting ridiculous? There's a commercial every seconds alright. How
Speaker 1: they're working on that at the American Gaming Association just
Speaker 1: had a big conference call yesterday about that, just like
Speaker 1: the fantasy DFS thing when it started. You know that
Speaker 1: the objection from the research um to the sports advertising
Speaker 1: not necessarily the frequency of it, but the exposure to
Speaker 1: to miners is the bigger objects I would imagine. So
Speaker 1: from the research, here's another objection. If the girl from
Speaker 1: the Lily commercials on one more time, I'm going to
Speaker 1: kill myself. She's a world does the commercial have to
Speaker 1: be it's on more than the than the gambling commercials.
Speaker 1: So it's like if while you're there, Mikey, when you're
Speaker 1: at the gaming place by the way, throwing the lily,
Speaker 1: Lily can't be on more than one every three commercials
Speaker 1: because she's driving me crazy. They're Toody, I gotta step
Speaker 1: in here because Mike's gotta go. We gotta start with
Speaker 1: this soap todd Our records for the regular season were
Speaker 1: Jilly Ice with the regular season victory at twenty eight
Speaker 1: and twenty six after a nice two and one, a
Speaker 1: nice two in one week. He got hot late in
Speaker 1: the season. His beloved organization, the Woof, he's covered for him.
Speaker 1: He did have the Chargers in the Sunday nighter, and
Speaker 1: then he did get quite fortunate in that Niners game. Um,
Speaker 1: Mikey went, oh, I needed it too. I was with you.
Speaker 1: I was very fortunate too. I did either of us
Speaker 1: think that Jimmy g was going eight nine yards. I
Speaker 1: didn't think I was doing it, and I needed him.
Speaker 1: Mikey went, oh, in three h with the Philadelphia Eagles
Speaker 1: that didn't really decide to play, very unfortunate in the
Speaker 1: Rams Niners game that we just talked about, and the
Speaker 1: Chiefs minus ten, which we also talked about. So Mikey
Speaker 1: go and one. I went one and two and finished
Speaker 1: at twenty two and thirty two. In the teaser category,
Speaker 1: which is the ever more important category, went. Of course,
Speaker 1: of course, I actually lost my teaser to go to
Speaker 1: a leven in seven. Mikey one is teaser and one
Speaker 1: of the most fortunate teaser wins in the history of
Speaker 1: teaser wins when the Atlanta Falcons and and the Iceman
Speaker 1: on fourth and ten somehow punched it in and he
Speaker 1: got the Atlanta plus ten and a half. So he
Speaker 1: goes ten seven and one on teasers. Gilly also with
Speaker 1: a win at nine eight and one in teasers. So
Speaker 1: now we continue the records. We continue the records. Yes,
Speaker 1: we continue with all the records. That's right. So the
Speaker 1: questions are we doing three picks and a teaser again
Speaker 1: this week? A lot of game three to three picks
Speaker 1: in a teaser because there's six games drew your first
Speaker 1: best bet, sir sider total. Oh Jesus, this card is
Speaker 1: so tough. I'm gonna go with the side. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take the l a rams here. Um, I've I don't
Speaker 1: have a strong angle. I just know that there's only
Speaker 1: one chance I will have in my life to fade
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury in his first ever playoff game and maybe
Speaker 1: his only ever playoff game. I do not believe even
Speaker 1: the pieces around Kyler Murray. I do not believe in
Speaker 1: the coaching. Uh really on both sides of the ball.
Speaker 1: I knows advance Joseph has made, you know, has made
Speaker 1: have come He's come up with a couple of pretty
Speaker 1: solid game plans this season. Um. But overall against this
Speaker 1: Rams team that has so many players available in the
Speaker 1: past catching uh and uh, you know Stafford at home
Speaker 1: relatively comfortable confines there, I do think the Rams are
Speaker 1: gonna be able to put up thirty points in this one. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I don't love the ability for Kyler Murray to
Speaker 1: play comeback mode if it comes to that. I'm not
Speaker 1: buying the impact that J. J. Watt is gonna be
Speaker 1: able to make after having missed the last ten plus
Speaker 1: ish weeks. Uh. And realistically, this is the only game
Speaker 1: that I see across the board that I think is
Speaker 1: lined like it's going to be a competitive contest. But
Speaker 1: I have a long tail to the favorite covering with margin,
Speaker 1: So I'll say Rams minus four unless you're gonna give
Speaker 1: me consensus three and a half. I know it's three
Speaker 1: and a half, only had a couple of spots, but
Speaker 1: yeah for Aaron Shots, the founder of Football Outsiders, is
Speaker 1: on the numbers game this morning. That is the one
Speaker 1: favorite he likes as well, giving the points the only
Speaker 1: favorite he liked. The only favorite he likes giving the points. Yeah, uh,
Speaker 1: Mikey number one. You know, I like the under in
Speaker 1: the very first game on Saturday, the Raiders in the Bengals, Uh,
Speaker 1: it's going to be well. One is whether it's going
Speaker 1: to be cold to Zach, Taylor played this game very conservatively.
Speaker 1: When they were out here at a legion that game.
Speaker 1: I kept telling people, is they're running clock in this game,
Speaker 1: because it never seemed like the clock stopped. And and
Speaker 1: remember with five minutes to go, the score was in
Speaker 1: favorite the Bengals. It's misleading what happened at the end
Speaker 1: with the car turnovers and that, um, we're seeing money
Speaker 1: coming on the Raiders. Maybe it's a little Nevada bias
Speaker 1: here or West Coast bias with the Raiders on this game.
Speaker 1: But I think this number is too high. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, the Bengals haven't been able to win in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. They have a home game here. I think
Speaker 1: Taylor of plays it just as conservatively as he did
Speaker 1: the first game against the Raiders. I really like the
Speaker 1: first half under twenty four and a half more, but
Speaker 1: we don't have that option on this show. I'll take
Speaker 1: under forty eight and a half under. We're giving what
Speaker 1: a mench Ye, Well, I'm only doing I'm only being
Speaker 1: a mench because I like the same pick self surveying mench. Well, Mikey,
Speaker 1: I was trying to be honest. I think credit where
Speaker 1: I deserve credit is that your number one, that is
Speaker 1: my number one. Number one is also under forty nine.
Speaker 1: And Cincinnati against Vegas, Mikey made a lot of points.
Speaker 1: Another thing that basically, uh you know, bears out what
Speaker 1: mike he was saying was there were five drives in
Speaker 1: this game over five minutes, and there was a couple
Speaker 1: of six minute drives. It was a lot of mixing left,
Speaker 1: mixing right, mixing left, mixing right. There was just tons
Speaker 1: and tons of running and it was just a grinder game.
Speaker 1: It was a total grinder game. And like Mikey said,
Speaker 1: it got away at the end for final I just
Speaker 1: like it. I think also, Cincinnati is just gonna line
Speaker 1: up and it's gonna be cold too. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: like thirty degrees. Uh you know that that that cold
Speaker 1: weather doesn't really you know play for a real high
Speaker 1: scoring game in my opinion, So I I don't see
Speaker 1: any reason why Cincinnati won't just line up and try
Speaker 1: to push them all over the place like they did
Speaker 1: in the first game. So I'm going under forty nine
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Vegas. I had Eric Eager on this morning from
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focused Total nerd Fest on the numbers game
Speaker 1: this morning and Eric Eager dr Eager. He cited some
Speaker 1: Derek car stat were like under like freezing conditions. He's
Speaker 1: just got awful. So throw that into the mix of
Speaker 1: the Raiders in the Bengals. I didn't know they kept
Speaker 1: those kind of stats. My number one pick, Todd, brace yourself.
Speaker 1: The Pittsburgh Steelers, get out of you're off. You're kicked off.
Speaker 1: You know what. You're kicked off the mega pond this
Speaker 1: year and this is like the target for half of
Speaker 1: next season. You're also kicked off, So you can't just
Speaker 1: be kicked off. You're out, by the way, Thank you
Speaker 1: guys for doing the megapon last week. Thank you both
Speaker 1: very much. Uh Schwab Frank Schwab was a guest. He's terrific.
Speaker 1: I had him on prime time or we had him
Speaker 1: on prime time last night. Thanked him as well for
Speaker 1: doing and he was like, yeah, maybe next time when
Speaker 1: you're on week I could be on. I was like, sure, absolutely, Frank.
Speaker 1: Frank texted me at ten thirty last Thursday night and said,
Speaker 1: I hope you weren't upset. I disagreed with your pick
Speaker 1: of the chiefs. I said, of course not. It makes
Speaker 1: for it makes for a better megapod if we I mean,
Speaker 1: if we all agree, it sucks. He and I'm the
Speaker 1: first one to say, Mike these things, but he was
Speaker 1: excellent um on the hosting of the megapod last week. Mikey,
Speaker 1: we have to give you a tip of the hat thing.
Speaker 1: Thank I did it, John Fox like job he did?
Speaker 1: He really did. Didn't turn He didn't turn over the ball.
Speaker 1: He was a game manager and he did not turn
Speaker 1: the ball over. We got the points we were supposed
Speaker 1: to get and we got out with the nineteen sixteen victory.
Speaker 1: Did he go did he go on in an infective,
Speaker 1: rant laced rant about analytics or ran It was a
Speaker 1: nice meat sandwich of football analysis. I think it. What
Speaker 1: was it about forty three minutes, Todd, I mean it
Speaker 1: was there was some Frank Schwab said to me he said,
Speaker 1: Thank god I didn't go in three. I was so nervous.
Speaker 1: They weren't gonna let they weren't gonna let Mike. You
Speaker 1: just throw the ball all over the field, he said, Duncan,
Speaker 1: I took Pittsburgh plus thirteen. I know I'm only getting
Speaker 1: twelve and a half here now, I'm still taking it. Uh. Look,
Speaker 1: I know they suck football outsiders, as it was their
Speaker 1: twenty fourth ranked team dv O A. I'm still trying.
Speaker 1: I think you deserve the Actually, Todd is so nice today.
Speaker 1: I'm still trying to figure out how that big bend
Speaker 1: passed in the in the overtime, that fourth down play
Speaker 1: got to Ray Ray McLeod I have It's the most
Speaker 1: amazing Remember that. Remember that Kauai Leonard shot against the
Speaker 1: Sixers and games bounced off the front and then off
Speaker 1: the back. But even before it bounced off the rim
Speaker 1: three or four times. If you watch that replay, it's
Speaker 1: like the ball change direction in midio. I have no
Speaker 1: idea how that happened. That was that Ray Ray McCloud pass.
Speaker 1: I'm like, how did it looked like it was gonna
Speaker 1: land two yards in front of bed? Is like and
Speaker 1: somehow like it got to his ankles, and why is
Speaker 1: he even open? Unfortunately, ridiculous, simple pass. Here's the thing,
Speaker 1: the reason I took Pittsburgh ultimately is one I'm not
Speaker 1: as high on Kansas City as people. Although Tyreek did
Speaker 1: show up at practice yesterday, he was banged up with
Speaker 1: the heel um. But my thing is I subscribe to
Speaker 1: the Christie and Andrews theory about the Steelers, which is,
Speaker 1: and he's a lifelong Steelers fan. Two, which is, say
Speaker 1: what you will about the Steelers, and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of negative to be said, but they do have one thing,
Speaker 1: maybe as good or better than any other team, which
Speaker 1: is they have three or four unbelievable players on defense.
Speaker 1: T J. Watt, Minka Fitzpatrick, Cameron Hayward will throw Joe
Speaker 1: Hayden in as well, and there's something about just their
Speaker 1: presence that is enough to disrupt what the other team
Speaker 1: is doing in a very impactful way. And for me,
Speaker 1: that's enough to take the thirteen points. I'll take the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers drew number two. Oh boy, I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: back to the Raiders game. I'm gonna take the dog here,
Speaker 1: even at five and a half I think it's still value.
Speaker 1: I make fair price in this one four and a
Speaker 1: half assuming you have a fully healthy Joe Burrow, and
Speaker 1: I'm not entirely convinced you will. UM. There is a
Speaker 1: specific angle here against the offense for the Cincinnati Bengals
Speaker 1: looking as good as the market currently has priced them. UH.
Speaker 1: In general, they do well against defenses that are blitz happy,
Speaker 1: defenses that are aggressive, UH, and not necessarily against defenses
Speaker 1: that basically just put a ton of guys out in coverage. UH.
Speaker 1: And the Gus Bradley defense is somewhat predictable. I think
Speaker 1: we saw in the first matchup. It did limit Joe
Speaker 1: Burrow's ability to really kind of get going through the air,
Speaker 1: and I would expect similar output here, particularly given that
Speaker 1: this is an outdoor contest. Tee Higgins dealing with an
Speaker 1: injury as well. I think it's going quietly and talked
Speaker 1: about UM. And I know that Raiders defense was on
Speaker 1: the field a heck of a lot Sunday night, but
Speaker 1: that strush is absolutely violent. UH. And they're going up
Speaker 1: against a delightful matchup with the Cleveland past ob see
Speaker 1: Cincinnati passed pro. That's a UM, you know, bottom half
Speaker 1: of the league, maybe even bottom five, depending on whose
Speaker 1: rankings you're looking at. So, um, I think Burrow is
Speaker 1: gonna be under Darreuss here. I think the fact that
Speaker 1: he's not, you know, so much of his success, really
Speaker 1: I feel like has come. Um when you know he's
Speaker 1: making the hot read, he's uh, he's evaluating the blitz
Speaker 1: pre snap uh. And he's you know, he's utterly dissecting
Speaker 1: the defense because there's just too many good athletes in
Speaker 1: that among his positional players that can create separation in
Speaker 1: those you know, in those bang bang moments. Uh. And
Speaker 1: that's just hasn't ever really worked against the Raiders. You
Speaker 1: need to be more like a Pat Mahomes. You need
Speaker 1: to thrive out of structure to really put up points
Speaker 1: on this defense. And I don't see Burrow being able
Speaker 1: to do that. So I think this is a closely
Speaker 1: contested contest. I agree with both of your guys under plays. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I'll grab the Raiders here expecting them to keep
Speaker 1: it close. Um. Only I bet this at six earlier
Speaker 1: this week. Uh. And I had a conversation last night
Speaker 1: where I pooh poohed the six and five and a
Speaker 1: half being worth much. I was like, Oh no, don't
Speaker 1: worry about it. If I have, and it's not a
Speaker 1: huge deal. And then I was thinking, the Raiders have
Speaker 1: had some unbelievable overtime karma this season, unbelievable. And if
Speaker 1: they somehow, if the Bengals somehow score a touchdown to
Speaker 1: win in overtime and this land six, I'll be pretty disappointed.
Speaker 1: But despite all that, I'll still I'll take the five
Speaker 1: and a half with with the Raiders. All right, Raiders,
Speaker 1: By the way, how great is this weekend of football?
Speaker 1: I cannot wait? Do you like the format? Three? Two
Speaker 1: three one? Having having a show, having a show to
Speaker 1: do Monday night? Selfishly, yes, because we get a game.
Speaker 1: If I did not have a show, no, three, Yeah,
Speaker 1: three and three is the way to do it. You
Speaker 1: can't do the two three, I mean, come on, And
Speaker 1: I think, when do you guys anticipate opening all the markets,
Speaker 1: because we're not going to know the NFC man chips
Speaker 1: until then. So no. So that's so I figured this
Speaker 1: out this morning. I was doing some some thinking about
Speaker 1: it on the way into work. I'm like, why did
Speaker 1: they end up with the Rams and the Cardinals on
Speaker 1: Monday Night? The reason isn't because that's the five four game,
Speaker 1: and so by that kickoff, by the end of the
Speaker 1: Sunday night games, they will know every matchup already perfectly
Speaker 1: for the Division Round, except for the winner of that
Speaker 1: game gets to play the you know whoever they get
Speaker 1: to play moving forward, so they will be able to
Speaker 1: You could open the NFC markets at five o'clock on
Speaker 1: Sunday at the Cowboys game. They can announce all the
Speaker 1: schedule for the Division Round by the end of Sunday,
Speaker 1: so that in NFL I forgot the reading. So that's
Speaker 1: what also makes the Vegas Cincinnati games so interesting to
Speaker 1: me is because the Titans worst matchup next week, at
Speaker 1: least to me, is Cincinnati. That's the worst if the
Speaker 1: Raiders win that or if either the Patriots or let's
Speaker 1: say the Stealers one than the Titans like even with that,
Speaker 1: But that's why that by is. So it's not only
Speaker 1: the by The biggest thing is you don't have to
Speaker 1: play a game, but it's also that you get the receding,
Speaker 1: you know, and so you could end up with an
Speaker 1: even more ridiculous matchup come to Vision Round. So um,
Speaker 1: all all very interesting. Your number two. I will give
Speaker 1: you a full disclosure. I wouldn't bet anything else other
Speaker 1: than what I gave you. Um, I want to take
Speaker 1: the Rams, but I just you know, Matt Stafford's never
Speaker 1: won a big game. He's just it's just hard to
Speaker 1: get around the fact that the best victory of his
Speaker 1: career is over Hawaii and the Sugar Bowl. Um No,
Speaker 1: I mean it really, it's hard. That would be my
Speaker 1: next pick. Who could forget that. I'm gonna, I'm gonna.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a number I don't love, but I
Speaker 1: think this is a good matchup. I'll take the Bucks
Speaker 1: and lay the points just because, Look, the one thing
Speaker 1: you don't want to have against the Bucks is depending
Speaker 1: on a running game. And I mean, if you think
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts can drop back forty five times and beat you, okay,
Speaker 1: but I don't think so, because he can't run the
Speaker 1: ball on him. That's the one thing. They don't have
Speaker 1: a secondary They don't but you cannot run the ball
Speaker 1: on him, Hurts. We'll have to be good. I like
Speaker 1: Brady in the playoffs. I think this is the worst
Speaker 1: possible matchup for the Eagles, So I'll take the Bucks,
Speaker 1: though in life I would only tease them. I'll lay
Speaker 1: the points here on this show. By the way, I
Speaker 1: agree with you about Stafford. I was thinking, exactly, I
Speaker 1: want to take the Rams. I feel like the Cardinals
Speaker 1: are fading over the last five six weeks. It's a
Speaker 1: different Cardinals team. They're falling apart, and I'm thinking, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: let's take the Rams. But then in the back of
Speaker 1: my mind, I've got that Matthew Stafford in the back
Speaker 1: of my mind. There's something about that guy who's not
Speaker 1: to me, has never been a winner. Do you know
Speaker 1: that he's do we agree? Like no player has more
Speaker 1: pressure on him this week than matt than Matthew Stafford does,
Speaker 1: because of no player has more pressure on him this
Speaker 1: weekend of any player on any team than Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 1: Because of the fact that the Golf Stafford trade. He's
Speaker 1: supposed to be the difference, right, He's supposed to be
Speaker 1: the whole difference with that franchise. And if they crap
Speaker 1: out on Monday night, I would argue second, I would
Speaker 1: argue a clear second. Is Garoppolo Okay, yeah, yeah, But
Speaker 1: like even Wolfford, even Wolford one is first ever start
Speaker 1: for the Ramps, can't do it. That's right. Right. Um,
Speaker 1: I will say Stafford probably should have one playoff one.
Speaker 1: He should have beat the Cowboys when they picked up
Speaker 1: that flag. That was he should he should have beaten.
Speaker 1: You should have beaten Tony Romo's cowboys when they picked
Speaker 1: up that flag. Who could forget that? What was that?
Speaker 1: The game with that? That was the game before the
Speaker 1: des brand It was it was a linebacker, a linebacker
Speaker 1: for the Cowboys. I can't remember who it was, and
Speaker 1: they threw a flag and then they decided, yeah, right,
Speaker 1: it was like that. That's right. Um, all right, Todd
Speaker 1: number two, my number two is going to be the
Speaker 1: under forty six in the Steeler game. Um, I just
Speaker 1: think the first on in the first game, Kansas City
Speaker 1: scored on almost every single possession. They just went right
Speaker 1: down the field almost every single time. They were up
Speaker 1: twenty three to nothing. That happen, and the game still
Speaker 1: should not have gone should not have finished forty six.
Speaker 1: But there was like a fumble late that got an
Speaker 1: extra field goal, and that's why they ended up thirty six.
Speaker 1: That game should have gone under even with Kansas City
Speaker 1: scoring at will, and it was because Pittsburgh can't do anything.
Speaker 1: Now here's the thing. Gilly. I sort of agree with
Speaker 1: it can't be this easy, right now. I here's the
Speaker 1: thing there, It's it can't be that easy that you
Speaker 1: could just look at the board and go. Kansas City,
Speaker 1: of course, is going to kill them. They always kill them.
Speaker 1: And that's why I think you actually have have you
Speaker 1: know something here, because we've seen this a million times
Speaker 1: when it's so obvious, when it's absolutely obvious right in
Speaker 1: your face, it never comes in. So I'm thinking, well,
Speaker 1: how can the Steelers even in a stay in this
Speaker 1: game at all? It has to go under. I think
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh if they can figure a way to slow Kansity
Speaker 1: down just a little bit. I still don't think that
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh can score. I mean, look at the road games
Speaker 1: this year. They were down twenty nine to nothing against Minnesota.
Speaker 1: They were down a million to the Chargers and didn't
Speaker 1: deserve to be back in that game. There was like
Speaker 1: eight hundred games that the Steelers were down, like it
Speaker 1: was Ohio State against Oregon State. It was ridiculous. And
Speaker 1: they they got back in some of those games very nice,
Speaker 1: but they're not good enough. And I just think that somehow,
Speaker 1: um maybe they can slow him down. Like you said,
Speaker 1: we we do have. Look, we have a couple of
Speaker 1: ensers down there that really know how to stop people
Speaker 1: if we really need to get a big stop in
Speaker 1: a big you know, a big time situation in that.
Speaker 1: But that's more don in Hinesville when we get them
Speaker 1: yellow towels swinging and the people can't see you not.
Speaker 1: But now we're going down Arrow, I don't see it.
Speaker 1: I just don't see it. I'm just gonna help this
Speaker 1: final thirty one three under forty six, Thank you, thank you.
Speaker 1: Can I get an impression of what your reaction is
Speaker 1: going to be when the Chiefs are up and Tom
Speaker 1: linnelects to kick a field goal in the waning moment? No, no, no, when? When? When?
Speaker 1: This is what? Well, this is what he does every
Speaker 1: year he's he'll be down nine with four minutes to
Speaker 1: go and one time out or none left, and he'll
Speaker 1: punt on fourth and twelve. He does this at least once,
Speaker 1: he does that, at least once a year. Oh, he
Speaker 1: has to keep it in the On the other hand,
Speaker 1: on the other hand, maybe his finest coaching job in history. Well,
Speaker 1: the year how about the year with no no Roethlisberger
Speaker 1: when he had duck Hodges. That's that's hard to argue
Speaker 1: against that year, duck. So who's who's better than Mason Rudolph?
Speaker 1: By the way, and number number two for me a
Speaker 1: rare total for young Gil. You never played totals, never
Speaker 1: played totals. I think you all are playing the wrong
Speaker 1: game on the under Philadelphia Tampa Bay. For me, there's
Speaker 1: some weather involving. Yeah, forty six is what I'm saying
Speaker 1: right now. Or forty six and a half. What do
Speaker 1: you got, Todd? Forty six? Half half at each number? Alright,
Speaker 1: so Mike you make the call, O Tempily forty sixty
Speaker 1: five and a half. I have half. We'll give you
Speaker 1: because I see forty six and a half still too.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, go ahead, Actually no, I don't see. You're right.
Speaker 1: It's forty is rule though where I'm looking, So we'll
Speaker 1: give Here's first of all, I agree with what Mikey's saying.
Speaker 1: Phil Tampa Bay strength is their run defense. Philadelphia strength
Speaker 1: is their running game, number one running team in football.
Speaker 1: So it's strength against strength. Either Philadelphia is wildly unsuccessful
Speaker 1: against them, or they're unbelievably surprisingly successful and they actually
Speaker 1: do something. Either way that's great for my for my
Speaker 1: under because either the clock just churns or Philadelphia ain't
Speaker 1: scoring squat. And so here's the weather right now for
Speaker 1: Sunday at Tampa Bay, sixty eight degrees but eight percent
Speaker 1: precipitation and twenty three mile per hour winds which could
Speaker 1: get gusts of as high as thirty to thirty five.
Speaker 1: So that's the case. I like my under forty six.
Speaker 1: I will I will venture into the total waters and
Speaker 1: go under forty six in that game. And I'm quite frankly,
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that that total hasn't come down more. But
Speaker 1: maybe it's the maybe it's the Tom Brady short passing
Speaker 1: thing where everybody says that it doesn't matter Tom Brady,
Speaker 1: he'll still score fifty against him. But I'm gonna bet
Speaker 1: against that number three, Drew. I love that. I love
Speaker 1: what mine are greeted with nothing but silence. You guys
Speaker 1: are like that sounds like the dumbest thing I've ever
Speaker 1: It's not, it's just true. Go ahead, Sorry, No, I
Speaker 1: think I don't think you're honestly, you can probably still
Speaker 1: capture some line value on that, even though that's been
Speaker 1: good from forty nine and a half to forty six
Speaker 1: I bet you you flip that game on Sunday morning.
Speaker 1: You know, people get a taste of what's going on there,
Speaker 1: that could that could close and half UM last play,
Speaker 1: I'll go with the total as well. I know it's
Speaker 1: gonna be cold. I know Josh Allen has circulation issues
Speaker 1: in his does not bother me in the slightest. I
Speaker 1: like the over forty four in the Buffalo New England matchup.
Speaker 1: I see these two defenses as both slightly overrated UM
Speaker 1: in general inflated a bit by the week schedules that
Speaker 1: they played over the balance of the season. UH. And
Speaker 1: I think I look back at their UM second head
Speaker 1: to head and just the general aggressive nature that both
Speaker 1: coaches brought to that particular contest, I think speaks to
Speaker 1: what you can expect from game planning from UH. You know,
Speaker 1: from a coaching standpoint here, would you believe that there
Speaker 1: were ten fourth downs attempted in that Buffalo New England
Speaker 1: game that Buffalo ended up winning, and you would say, well,
Speaker 1: Buffalo got the lucky bounce right, Buffalo converted all the
Speaker 1: high leverage plays. I remember, you know Josh Allen scrambling
Speaker 1: for touchdown for fourth down conversions, and you know, hitting
Speaker 1: some lucky passes on fourth down. Well, amazingly, New England
Speaker 1: was four of six on fourth down, and that if
Speaker 1: I have five of six on fourth down in that game,
Speaker 1: which is something that I completely missed until I went
Speaker 1: back and rewatched, and ultimately I think you're um, you know,
Speaker 1: with the state is being relatively high, with both teams
Speaker 1: coming in with an aggressive approach, and and really likelihood
Speaker 1: that Buffalo is going to be able to get uh
Speaker 1: you know, to be able to sort of dictate this
Speaker 1: pace of play and the game state here, New England
Speaker 1: is likely going to have to play some catch catch up.
Speaker 1: I don't think New England's gonna be able to kind
Speaker 1: of institute a keepaway, um you know, run the ball,
Speaker 1: uh you know, possession type of approach here. Um, I
Speaker 1: bet into this at forty three. It's up to forty four.
Speaker 1: My fair on this one is forty seven, even considering
Speaker 1: the cold weather. So I think over forty four is
Speaker 1: a fair look for the third play of the day.
Speaker 1: Already had it written down same same, yeah. I I
Speaker 1: talked about this with them all yesterday. I think the
Speaker 1: number is suppressed a little bit because of that swirling
Speaker 1: win games at Orchard Park on Monday night, and that
Speaker 1: that relatively low score. But take a look at the
Speaker 1: second game, which was not great weather conditions, and there
Speaker 1: were no punts, right Andrew Drew reference to all the
Speaker 1: fourth now, no punts, no punts in the game. So
Speaker 1: I just think this number is too low. I think
Speaker 1: it could played into the into the mid twenties. And
Speaker 1: I think it's actually a little maybe a little bit
Speaker 1: too many points here. I think this is a field
Speaker 1: goal game, a very entertaining game. Looking forward to it
Speaker 1: on Saturday evening. You guys aren't afraid. And I think
Speaker 1: Drew said it before, but I want to hear him
Speaker 1: say it one more time. You know, it's supposed to
Speaker 1: be colder than any cold game in the history of
Speaker 1: cold games or something bullshit like that. What you're talking about,
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be really cold and cold and Buffalo.
Speaker 1: It is not cold and Minnesota. It's not negative ten.
Speaker 1: It's I'm sorry, sorry, it's gonna be balmy, my bed,
Speaker 1: Western and baldy and Buffalo. It's still gonna be damn cold. Mikey.
Speaker 1: They'll calm down. You're right, it's not gonna be seatt
Speaker 1: all against the vikings minus eight hundred. That's okay. Anyway,
Speaker 1: you're gonna be crying when it's cold and they're running
Speaker 1: the ball every five seconds. I honestly think that actually
Speaker 1: helps the over And I don't think we're gonna see
Speaker 1: a lot of longfield goal attempts right Like, I think
Speaker 1: we've got the recipe now. It's not going to be
Speaker 1: a ball control kind of a game. They're gonna go
Speaker 1: for it on fourth down if you're on your opponent's
Speaker 1: forty yard line. Um, you know, I think that leads
Speaker 1: to more more scoring, more touchdowns generally, as opposed to
Speaker 1: what we saw in that win game, where it was
Speaker 1: entirely ball control. But I don't hate it. It's not
Speaker 1: like I'm saying I like the under. I'm just saying
Speaker 1: I heard it's gonna be super damn cold. But anyways,
Speaker 1: my third okay, UM, here's the problem. I want to
Speaker 1: take Jimmy G to really do everybody. I know, that's
Speaker 1: a problem. I hate everybody like that. That's the problem.
Speaker 1: Everybody likes Jimmy G. They saw him go eighty nine
Speaker 1: yards to tie, which I still can't believe actually happened
Speaker 1: when I had niners plus to do an APPEND game.
Speaker 1: I still can't believe he did it. Uh, I just
Speaker 1: I just can't get there, especially when everybody loving it.
Speaker 1: I just can't do it. So now I'm forced to
Speaker 1: just find something ing, and I'm gonna go with a
Speaker 1: little coach that some people call the greatest of all time,
Speaker 1: a guy named Bill Belichick. And here's why I want
Speaker 1: to go with Bill Belichick. He's won a couple of
Speaker 1: Super Bowls. He's not too bad in Super Bowls. Uh.
Speaker 1: He's a guy that now you put him in a
Speaker 1: playoffs situation and he he knows he doesn't have the
Speaker 1: better team. He knows we all know he doesn't have
Speaker 1: the better team. But he's gonna get into his kitchen
Speaker 1: and cook up some you know, google losh for Mr
Speaker 1: for Mr Josh Allen. And I just think that four
Speaker 1: points in an NFL game with and I get Bill
Speaker 1: Belichick on my team, Um, it's a lot of points.
Speaker 1: You know. Granted, they were not the winner, they were
Speaker 1: not in that game. They did not deserve to be
Speaker 1: anywhere near the winner of that second game, I'll give
Speaker 1: you that. But the first game with the creative running
Speaker 1: every single down situation was quite kind of interesting. But look,
Speaker 1: it's plus four. If we're down ten late, we get
Speaker 1: the back door touch down we finished, we lose, and
Speaker 1: everyone goes home happy. So I'll take the greatest coach
Speaker 1: in the history of the National Football League in the
Speaker 1: freezing cold, even though it's gonna be balmy, and I'll
Speaker 1: take the Pats plus four. Yeah. I'm not gonna add
Speaker 1: anything more to that other than when the lines first
Speaker 1: came out, I immediately grabbed New England plus four and
Speaker 1: a half. It was all about Belichick figuring out a
Speaker 1: way to keep this close. That's my number three pick.
Speaker 1: I also bet the Niners, even though it's not one
Speaker 1: of my three official ones here. It troubles me tremendously
Speaker 1: that everybody loves each other, it really does. I got
Speaker 1: a note for you on that one. Yes, please, the
Speaker 1: Cowboys money is coming professional, the professional Cowboys money. And
Speaker 1: if you like the Niners, if you support Jimmy wait, wait, yeah,
Speaker 1: wait until he throws this first interception in the first quarters. Wait,
Speaker 1: don't wait that long. Don't wait that long. I mean, here,
Speaker 1: here's a here's a genuine, genuine opinion question, because I've
Speaker 1: been asking another smart can I get can I interrupt
Speaker 1: Mike's got a gotta go, so I just want to
Speaker 1: get my teaser. Yeah, Buck's Patriots game. You want no
Speaker 1: part of. I want no part of I want no
Speaker 1: part of Cardinals Rams because of Stafford concerns. Favorite that's
Speaker 1: gonna lose most likely any of them, any of them,
Speaker 1: any of them will go, any of them, but not
Speaker 1: not Cowboys. Okay, thank you, thank you, Mike Palm, everybody
Speaker 1: heading the odds on the worst Name show ever. Yeah,
Speaker 1: with them all show. Okay, what was the question, Drew?
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. So there was a lot of bally Hood
Speaker 1: reporting discussion about Jimmy got the injection at halftime made
Speaker 1: his thumb feel a lot better and he played a
Speaker 1: lot better obviously in the second half and over UM
Speaker 1: and he said, I believe the quote was something along
Speaker 1: lines of not gonna wait for halftime this time and
Speaker 1: get the get the thumb shot pregame UM number one?
Speaker 1: Does that give you any more interest incentive in getting
Speaker 1: involved with San Francisco? First half, it doesn't wear off
Speaker 1: at halftime. The he get worse as the game goes on,
Speaker 1: as the thumb starts, you know, the pain starts to creep.
Speaker 1: Because I believe I don't believe you're allowed to get
Speaker 1: two shots and maybe they to do this show every
Speaker 1: week and that's how painful it is for him. Um,
Speaker 1: that's an interesting question. I mean, my thing is this
Speaker 1: an Aaron again. Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders was on
Speaker 1: this morning. He he did a ran on his Twitter
Speaker 1: where it was like, here's what the cow here's what
Speaker 1: the Niners are good at, and the one thing that
Speaker 1: they're glaringly bad at is deep down field passing by
Speaker 1: their opponents. So it's like it's all laid out there
Speaker 1: for Dallas, like this is how you beat them, Just
Speaker 1: heave it down field kind of thing. But I do
Speaker 1: worry about like Dack's chemistry with those whiteouts right now
Speaker 1: doesn't seem like there's much to it. His most successful
Speaker 1: deep threat connection was with Gallup. Who's gone, Who's gone?
Speaker 1: By the way, do you guys look at Zeke Elliott
Speaker 1: and looks like he's running in slow motion? Yes, he
Speaker 1: just looks up of years now. But it's even worse
Speaker 1: than the last last part of the season. I feel
Speaker 1: like he's so slow, but that's running bikes. Man. Like
Speaker 1: we're just saying about the colds being knocked out of
Speaker 1: the playoffs, Like what's their window with Jonathan Taylor? Three years?
Speaker 1: Four years? I mean, you don't know, these got the
Speaker 1: running backs just when they fall, they fall off a
Speaker 1: cliff Man, but a fresh Derrick Henry for the Titans. Baby,
Speaker 1: let's goose. I love man. I can't wait. I have
Speaker 1: taken so much incoming from my Titans futures wagers this year.
Speaker 1: Let's get it done. Let's get it done. I know, Drew,
Speaker 1: I know they're all telling me I'm crazy. Well, I
Speaker 1: you're chairing for the Steelers. You want the Steelers knock
Speaker 1: knock the Chiefs out. I don't know why? Why why
Speaker 1: are they Why are they saying you're so crazy? Rabel
Speaker 1: is an excellent coach. You've got it good because it's
Speaker 1: not that bad. Because I'll tell you why. It's multi prone.
Speaker 1: Because analytic sites, let's take that have the Titans to
Speaker 1: this day, right, they have the Titans twentieth at Football
Speaker 1: Outsiders right, um, Pro Football Focus has an eighth. But
Speaker 1: my whole thing was very clear. Wait, this is when
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry went down, When A. J. Brown went down, specifically,
Speaker 1: when Derrick Henry went down, I said, look, they have
Speaker 1: beaten the toughest teams in the league already that part
Speaker 1: of their schedules behind them. The easy part is coming.
Speaker 1: They will be able to remain afloat. The bet here
Speaker 1: for both the a f C and the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: is not for them to win the Super Bowl, right
Speaker 1: because none of us knows who actually ends up winning it.
Speaker 1: But the point is that they remain afloat and get
Speaker 1: the number one seed. And if they get the number
Speaker 1: one seed, by the way along that arc, we'll get
Speaker 1: Julio Jones back, who by the way, hasn't meant shipped
Speaker 1: to them. We'll get a j Brown back who instantly
Speaker 1: made a huge difference if you remember in the second
Speaker 1: half of that primetime game. Um. And then by the
Speaker 1: time they get to week eight teen, or if they
Speaker 1: get that by even more comfortably, they'll get the buy
Speaker 1: and they'll play in a divisional round two home games.
Speaker 1: If they win that round, then they'll get Derrick Henry back,
Speaker 1: who's the unicorn of all unicorns. That's the bet for
Speaker 1: them to get the number one seat. And at that
Speaker 1: point you're set up perfectly and you let the gods
Speaker 1: determine what they determine. But that was the whole bet
Speaker 1: and that bet has come through, and so we will
Speaker 1: see now if it all works out. But it's set
Speaker 1: up perfectly. So wait, can you guys answer how modeling
Speaker 1: says that the Tennessee Titans are best team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: It's backwards looking and their last half of the season
Speaker 1: they didn't play anyone and they didn't do especially well
Speaker 1: not playing anyone, and so it's not you know, they
Speaker 1: didn't they beats when they got a j. Brown back,
Speaker 1: But remember they lost to the Texans. Beat the Texans
Speaker 1: the second time. Didn't they lose to some other clunker
Speaker 1: in there? You know, So yeah, there's you know, it's
Speaker 1: it's not it's not a strong case. For sure, the
Speaker 1: Steelers beat them, you know, I mean like they they
Speaker 1: they've had Patriots got the better of them, buy a
Speaker 1: long shot. Obviously that game Week one stinker against the
Speaker 1: Cardinals is still in the sample, so you know that's
Speaker 1: dragging them. Um, But yeah, it's they beat Miami thirty
Speaker 1: four to three, right that that that's the thing. They're
Speaker 1: there just to give you a point of comparison. So
Speaker 1: like the Packers that Football Outsiders are ninth. But the
Speaker 1: reason that their ninth is that they had the they
Speaker 1: had the Jordan's Love Game and the very first game
Speaker 1: of the season. If you look at their full season,
Speaker 1: so I'm not the way to d v o A,
Speaker 1: but the full season one. They had that first game
Speaker 1: of the season where they got clocked by New Orleans. Right,
Speaker 1: was that the game where jamis through five touchdowns with
Speaker 1: less than a hundred fifty yards passing? Right? And then
Speaker 1: they had the Jordan Love Game, and then there was
Speaker 1: one other I think was there another Jordan? I don't
Speaker 1: know it was those two. But if you take those
Speaker 1: two games out, they go from ninth to third. So
Speaker 1: that's why it's those kind of things that make people go,
Speaker 1: what do you mean ninth? By the way, you know
Speaker 1: what their number one team, one number one rated team
Speaker 1: that didn't make the postseason was, if I gave you
Speaker 1: ten guesses, Todd ten asked me again, Now, what's the question?
Speaker 1: What was? What was Football Outsiders number one ranked dvo
Speaker 1: A team for the year that did not make the postseason,
Speaker 1: that did not make the postseason. Yes, and I'll give
Speaker 1: you Chargers quicker. So it's so it's some kind of
Speaker 1: like quaker quicker, stop looking it up, quicker. Ul Colts
Speaker 1: at Denver Vikings at Seattle. There it is. You got
Speaker 1: it on the fifth Seattle eight. I couldn't believe that.
Speaker 1: That's crazy. And let me just one second. You guys
Speaker 1: said that Tennessee didn't beat anybody at the end of
Speaker 1: the year. I'm not sure here if I'm reading this correct.
Speaker 1: That okay, so real quickly, generally, their offensive efficiency from
Speaker 1: week eight through the through week seventeen, they only had
Speaker 1: They only had the one game against Miami where they
Speaker 1: were a little bit better than uh like neutral, and
Speaker 1: then the Houston Texans game they had a very solid
Speaker 1: offensive game, but mostly it was kind of turnover luck,
Speaker 1: fluky stuff that really supported them in a lot of
Speaker 1: these games. Defensive stuff that's not necessarily predictive. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I didn't have any receivers in a lot of those games,
Speaker 1: didn't they, Right, That's the thing. So I think I
Speaker 1: think the key really is though that like almost all
Speaker 1: of this stuff is backward looking and not and how
Speaker 1: you use it in a forward sense is a little
Speaker 1: bit You have to be a little bit conscientious. Like
Speaker 1: if you take their ratings from week three and they'll
Speaker 1: they'll own this, like I think they had after three weeks,
Speaker 1: the Panthers were like the number one d b O
Speaker 1: A team, right, and so like you know, you gotta
Speaker 1: you gotta, um, you know, but you know, to that
Speaker 1: point in the season had performed really well in three games,
Speaker 1: so backward looking you were saying, yeah, this team has
Speaker 1: done really well. So I'm saying that you can't. You
Speaker 1: have to take this stuff with a major grain of salt.
Speaker 1: If the if the Green Bay Packers are the ninth
Speaker 1: best team looking forward backward sideways north, south and east
Speaker 1: and west, that's wrong. The Green Bay Packers are not
Speaker 1: the ninth best team. Do you guys think that the
Speaker 1: ninth best team? No, but I'm just trying to explain
Speaker 1: why they are what they are. And yes, so can't
Speaker 1: the modeling fix that somehow? Not the way they do things,
Speaker 1: I guess is the answer, because it's taking every play. No, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's so that's the difference between the So like Dr
Speaker 1: Bob for instance, right, he who who picks games on
Speaker 1: a week to week basis, he will manually extract player
Speaker 1: play data that is meaningless, right, So like if there's
Speaker 1: kneel downs, you know quickly, which is what I always say, right, Um,
Speaker 1: so yes, it's a little different. It's in coming upon
Speaker 1: you to know exactly. That's why, that's why I always
Speaker 1: feel bad for Erin or I always feel bad and
Speaker 1: I love Eron he's my guy, but I always feel
Speaker 1: bad because people will immediately react to those numbers right
Speaker 1: without having two or three thoughts after that. They're like, oh,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? This is bullshit? And so
Speaker 1: but I did say, he did say to me this morning.
Speaker 1: He goes his worst case scenario, just in terms of
Speaker 1: a like feedback perspective and people going after him, is
Speaker 1: if the Titan, if the Patriots meet the Bills and
Speaker 1: then the Titans crushed the Patriots, He's got the Patriots
Speaker 1: four and the Titans twenty. So he will take a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of incoming for that if that happens. But
Speaker 1: I'm saying, doesn't he end up? That could very well
Speaker 1: end Yes, but he wouldn't he acknowledge that. Like a
Speaker 1: perfect example, the Chiefs are winning twenty three nothing against
Speaker 1: the Steelers in that game, the Chiefs second half, it's
Speaker 1: just it's it's it's it's completely doesn't make any sense whatsoever,
Speaker 1: and it's not football, So just throw it the hell
Speaker 1: out but he does would he would he agree with that? Agree?
Speaker 1: Super smart? Yeah, he's saying there's nothing, so there's nothing
Speaker 1: you could do. He just wants to say, look, all
Speaker 1: plays are all plays, and all plays are equal, and
Speaker 1: that's it, and that's the way we have to do it.
Speaker 1: Is that what he's basically saying. I don't want to
Speaker 1: put words in his mouth, but I don't think they're
Speaker 1: in the business of manu really extracting, right, They're just
Speaker 1: looking at the whole data set. Yeah, and they're they're
Speaker 1: trying to normalize everything with context of down and distance.
Speaker 1: Like they're giving you a ton of credit for converting
Speaker 1: a third and one with four minutes to play in
Speaker 1: your own territory because that adds a lot of wind probability.
Speaker 1: If you convert that third and one, if you gain
Speaker 1: two yards, like like, it's you know, a two yards.
Speaker 1: But even if you're winning thirty five seven at that point, No, no, no,
Speaker 1: for sure, it's all it's relative to game state, etcetera.
Speaker 1: But if you if you're yeah, if you gain if
Speaker 1: you get two yards on our first and ten in
Speaker 1: the first quarter means nothing. If you gain two yards
Speaker 1: on third and one in the fourth quarter with a
Speaker 1: in a one possession game in your own territory, that's huge.
Speaker 1: And so they're trying to kind of come up with
Speaker 1: a flat space where you know, everything everything that is
Speaker 1: conducted on the field has a relative way to kind
Speaker 1: of getting to the end result there, and it's you know,
Speaker 1: they're trying to also kind of wait it for opponents
Speaker 1: and take some of the lucky stuff out of there.
Speaker 1: Like I wouldn't be surprised at all with the Titans.
Speaker 1: You know, you remember their Sunday night football win against
Speaker 1: the Rams where that was that was Yeah, but you
Speaker 1: know on paper box score, you're like, wow, you know,
Speaker 1: huge dog goes into l a. Uh, it gets this
Speaker 1: huge win. Like when are people going to finally buy
Speaker 1: it into the Titans? I would bet you anything. Their
Speaker 1: model probably downgraded the Titans, you know, analytically based on
Speaker 1: that game because just because of the way it happened. Uh,
Speaker 1: And you know you break it down play by play,
Speaker 1: they were very lucky to win that game. They had
Speaker 1: a couple other thing like that as well over the
Speaker 1: balance of the season. Um, but then on you don't
Speaker 1: think that team, you don't think where would you put
Speaker 1: You just had to Drew Dinsit Goulash ratings. Yeah, they're
Speaker 1: like nine. They're like nine for me. All Right, I
Speaker 1: gotta step in, guys, because Drew and I gotta do
Speaker 1: a little minutes of tennis. So we have to do
Speaker 1: our teasers teasers, and so I could ask you what
Speaker 1: your favorite teaser of the week is, or I could
Speaker 1: just ask you another way, which is Tampa and who
Speaker 1: I'm not taking Tampa? What do you think of them apples?
Speaker 1: I'm scared of Tampa. I think there's something wrong with
Speaker 1: the team. And I know everything you guys said was true,
Speaker 1: and the whole running and all that other nonsense. I
Speaker 1: agree with you in all of it. There's something wrong
Speaker 1: with that football team. And I'm not sure what the
Speaker 1: deal is. You can't be losing to the Jets, and
Speaker 1: you can't get zero against the Saints and you can't
Speaker 1: just something is up. And even the Panthers game, they
Speaker 1: weren't really that impressive to me, so I'm staying away
Speaker 1: from I think Jalen Hurts has gotten a lot better also,
Speaker 1: but I understand why you can't take the Eagles. But okay, fine,
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Pats plus ten and I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: the Niners plus nine because I don't want to trust
Speaker 1: Jimmy g on the spread. But if you're gonna give
Speaker 1: me the extra six, I'll take the Niners. So give
Speaker 1: me the Pats plus ten and the Niners plus nine.
Speaker 1: And I'm telling you, it looks like something's wrong with Tampa.
Speaker 1: This is not the Tampa Bay we've seen of old.
Speaker 1: Something is wrong. I don't know what it is. What's wrong?
Speaker 1: He like, huge deal? I okay, whatever it is, something
Speaker 1: is up. I guess you know what, even if they
Speaker 1: even if they clean the clocks of the Eagles, who
Speaker 1: potentially just happy to be here, um potentially, you know,
Speaker 1: because Tampa Bay strengths match up exactly with the strengths
Speaker 1: of the Eagles. So this might not be a competitive game.
Speaker 1: And I don't lose, but don't lose faith. Stick with
Speaker 1: your pins, stick with your guns. Don't go and pick them, right,
Speaker 1: I won't. I won't know. You're you're business saying this
Speaker 1: is a bad matchup for the Eagles and Tampa. They
Speaker 1: might just coast because of the bad matchup. But the
Speaker 1: truth is it could still be. There's a problem with
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. And I really do think there's a problem
Speaker 1: with Buccaneers. I don't know what you guys think, but
Speaker 1: I think there's definitely a problem. Yeah. I think almost
Speaker 1: certainly there's gonna be some momentum to pick against them
Speaker 1: next week, be at the Rams, the Niners, the the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: whoever heads to Tampa. I think it's gonna be the
Speaker 1: hot side next week. All right, Drew, yours is Tampa
Speaker 1: and Chiefs. I'll be the square, don't mind. I don't
Speaker 1: mind the general case here teasing you know, getting across
Speaker 1: seven I think is getting across tenants seven for a
Speaker 1: team like the Chiefs seems uh, that seems advantageous to me. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't think that. I don't love the Chiefs to
Speaker 1: cover this number, um, but certainly um and the idea
Speaker 1: that the Steelers come back and either win or that
Speaker 1: this becomes a field goal type of game is pretty
Speaker 1: low likelihood in my By my opinion, I have I
Speaker 1: have the Steelers at about a fift chance to win,
Speaker 1: um and in the cases where they are losing, I
Speaker 1: have it over a touchdown by about seventy percent, So
Speaker 1: not quite a plus EV teaser leg. But there really
Speaker 1: isn't a second leg this week. Yeah, I'm I'm looking
Speaker 1: for a dance partner for Tampa Bay, and I settled
Speaker 1: on the forty Niners. So Tampa Bay and the forty
Speaker 1: niners for me, because surely Todd they can cover the
Speaker 1: teaser leg right, just nine, it's not that much. As
Speaker 1: as long as Jimmy g us and throw. No, as
Speaker 1: long as Jimmy g doesn't go all Jimmy g on
Speaker 1: us and we and we get at least a couple
Speaker 1: of Dallas drops of interceptions, will be fine as long
Speaker 1: as he gets his dabbit luck. You know, even though
Speaker 1: you took your taking your land, you're taking the points
Speaker 1: of the paths. You're not going to tease him out
Speaker 1: past You're not gonna tease him out to ten. Uh.
Speaker 1: Here's my thing. Scared, he's scared. I know why he's scared.
Speaker 1: Wait where I'm scared. No, it's scary. It's perfectly right.
Speaker 1: If I took tim if I took New England with
Speaker 1: the points, but I also took San Francisco with the points,
Speaker 1: they just ended up as my number four, right, I
Speaker 1: took them both, but the But I'm scared of my paths.
Speaker 1: Pick two. I'm scared. But you know what's what's the
Speaker 1: more valuable six point move through the four in the
Speaker 1: seven or through the seven in the ten? Right, is
Speaker 1: what you're asking yourself basically, Yeah, and so went with
Speaker 1: the Niners. Just one with the Niners. Watch it now.
Speaker 1: Of course the Patriots will come through, but the Niners. Well,
Speaker 1: all right, final two questions. Guys, Uh, six games? You're
Speaker 1: you're forced to bet five sides? What's the one you want?
Speaker 1: No part of? Drew Cowboys Niners to me is the
Speaker 1: most correctly priced game on the board. I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't want to bet any of these games, but I'll
Speaker 1: take the Steelers game. I don't want to bet the
Speaker 1: Steelers game because I I don't think anything's that easy.
Speaker 1: It's not that easy, and I don't want to take
Speaker 1: the Steelers, but I just don't believe you can just go, oh,
Speaker 1: Kansas City. Of course that's gonna win for me. I
Speaker 1: think it's the Rams and the Cardinals. Like I just
Speaker 1: there's no DeAndre Hopkins, maybe J J. Watt. But would
Speaker 1: it shock me if the Cardinals put up a performance
Speaker 1: and Matthew Stafford had that one horrible mistake and the
Speaker 1: Cardinals showed up at all, not at all, and then
Speaker 1: would it shocked me if the Rams be them handily?
Speaker 1: Not at all. I just want no part of that
Speaker 1: game none. It was between that and Philly Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: By the way, Todd, to your point, even though I
Speaker 1: think Tampa Bay could roll them, because that I could
Speaker 1: see that being a slaughter or close game. Also. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then the final question. We usually do it with
Speaker 1: the big favorites every week, who's the most likely to
Speaker 1: lose out right? Let's do it this way this time
Speaker 1: every game but the Cowboys because it's the shortest line.
Speaker 1: Who's the favorite you think is the most likely to
Speaker 1: lose out right? True? Cincinnati for me? Wow, Todd, I
Speaker 1: like your Raiders passion there, Drew. Well, see, here's the
Speaker 1: funny thing about that game, real quick, it's a it's
Speaker 1: a it's to me, it's a bimodal kind of deal.
Speaker 1: Either the Raiders win, you know, they're close, they hang,
Speaker 1: they win because they are a very resilient, tough team
Speaker 1: that has been through hell and back the season and
Speaker 1: still somehow in the playoffs. Or they or they get
Speaker 1: their doors blown off one of two ways. The big
Speaker 1: sports thing. Yeah, sorry, I'm sorry. What I was gonna
Speaker 1: say is you have the big thing in sports going
Speaker 1: for you that nobody believes in US thing which is
Speaker 1: a which is a gigantic thing in sports. And the
Speaker 1: Raiders have had nobody believes in us for how many weeks?
Speaker 1: Now in our rowny they're playing with house money. That's
Speaker 1: there's no doubt about it. I mean, what a story, right,
Speaker 1: incredible story, this team incredible. But they they played the
Speaker 1: tough by my numbers, they played the toughest schedule in
Speaker 1: the a f C. They had the most adversity there
Speaker 1: here with a with an interim coach for crying out loud.
Speaker 1: They did get a little quarterback luck, right, They got
Speaker 1: Nick Mullins followed by Drew Lock followed by Carson wentz
Speaker 1: Off of a week of COVID. So that one all
Speaker 1: four overtime games they played, they won all four overtime games.
Speaker 1: Say no more? Yeah, okay, but that makes sense. So
Speaker 1: that so the one, So the big, big favorite most
Speaker 1: likely lose out right for you, Cincinnati and Todd, who
Speaker 1: did you say Buffalo? I said that Bills, just because
Speaker 1: I think maybe Belichick can you know, come up with
Speaker 1: some kind of potion to figure out how to pull
Speaker 1: off shock wood shock you right, Buffalo. Buffalo would be
Speaker 1: mine by definition. If I can't choose Dallas, Buffalo would
Speaker 1: be mine as well. You guys are scaring me. I
Speaker 1: have the Bills in this in the high stakes Calcutta,
Speaker 1: so sweating. But what what kind of money are we
Speaker 1: talking here? High stakes? Like for the bills? Alright, I'm I'm,
Speaker 1: I'm out on a limb here in bills and rams um.
Speaker 1: But I was. I was happy with my beds um
Speaker 1: and uh, we'll see, We'll see how it plays out now,
Speaker 1: very very cool. Hopefully if the Bills lose, it's a blowoutlaws.
Speaker 1: That's all. Scoop scoop some something out of one of
Speaker 1: the side pots there. All right, gentlemen, can't wait six games?
Speaker 1: Cannot wait for this weekend? What a great country that
Speaker 1: we have this sport. So let me ask you a question.
Speaker 1: Are you can you wait? Or can you not wait? What?
Speaker 1: You can't wait? Right? You just keep saying I can't wait?
Speaker 1: So I was going to that. Really, that was the
Speaker 1: second time I said it. Yes, I can't stop saying it.
Speaker 1: I said, Wai twice. You said it earlier in the
Speaker 1: show as well, my friend. Yeah, that's the second time
Speaker 1: I said it. That's what I'm saying. I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, buddy, I I can't wait. Till Man
Speaker 1: can't say he can't wait for football, count for Todd
Speaker 1: wished them from his mom's cork attic and Pittsburgh p A.
Speaker 1: Drew did say from the Bet the Edge NBC Sports
Speaker 1: Bet the Edge podcast, which he does with Sarah Peerlman
Speaker 1: Wherever podcast distributed, and the Deep Dive podcast didn say Classic,
Speaker 1: which he does with Andrew Andy Molitor. Thank you, Drew
Speaker 1: appreciated as wait wait wait, and Lily from and literally
Speaker 1: from A T and T who is not fair that
Speaker 1: she got the smaller lollipop and Mikey Palmer, No, no, no, Lily, Lily,
Speaker 1: the lady and the little girl, the little girl. I
Speaker 1: love that girl all right, appreciate it. Good luck with
Speaker 1: all your bets this week at Wild Car Weekend. From
Speaker 1: all of us at the Megapod, thank you for listen.
Speaker 1: The b