WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Both Parties Showing Cracks After Government Shutdown + Top 5 Senate Seat Most Likely To Flip Parties

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<v Speaker 1>That's get sold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty

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<v Speaker 1>percent off. Hello there, Happy Wednesday, Welcome to another episode

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<v Speaker 1>of the Chuck Toodcast. They'd be probably the best way

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<v Speaker 1>to understand the initial reaction by those that are running

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<v Speaker 1>for office, those that are running in Democratic primaries, those

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<v Speaker 1>that want to be leaders within the Democratic Party versus

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<v Speaker 1>and why they have reacted the way they've reacted. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>You use in some ways you are what's your electorate?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you tell me you're electorate, and no, I'll

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<v Speaker 1>tell you your position on this shutdown. Right, And if

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<v Speaker 1>you're electorate, if it's an electorate where you're more worried

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<v Speaker 1>about the general the swing voter, you were probably on

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<v Speaker 1>the side of figuring out how to do a pause

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<v Speaker 1>in the shutdown. And if you were somebody who's got

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<v Speaker 1>to worry more about a primary voter, then you were

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<v Speaker 1>going to be emphatic against cutting this deal. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think the reaction is a reminder that this was not

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<v Speaker 1>about healthcare right. This was about taking on, finally confronting

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<v Speaker 1>Trump on something right. And the party Democratic Party hadn't

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<v Speaker 1>done any decent confrontation really. A few governors had in

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<v Speaker 1>trying to fight back on national Guard efforts and things

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<v Speaker 1>like that, but there hadn't been a real showdown between

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<v Speaker 1>the party and Trump, and the shutdown provided that. And politically,

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<v Speaker 1>in the last forty days, it energized the base of

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<v Speaker 1>the Democratic Party and they felt good about that energy,

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<v Speaker 1>and it because the elections went well last week, it

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<v Speaker 1>could it seemed to provide the confirmation you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of form of confirmation bias. Hey, this shutdown seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be working. Look at how well our candidates did.

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<v Speaker 1>Why give up this idea now when at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the day, you know, you know, things can turn

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<v Speaker 1>quickly if you're not careful. And already some pulling is

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<v Speaker 1>surfaced about how as this shutdown was impacting more and

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<v Speaker 1>more Americans, blame was starting to get shared more and

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<v Speaker 1>more between both parties. Yes, Republicans were taking the runt

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<v Speaker 1>of the blame yes, Mike Johnson and Donald Trump were

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<v Speaker 1>actually making it easier for Democrats to politically when the

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<v Speaker 1>shutdown by their own maneuvers and their own decision making there.

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<v Speaker 1>But ultimately, as I've stated in a few other places

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<v Speaker 1>that I've spoken in the last forty eight hours, there

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<v Speaker 1>is a large chunk of voters in the middle who

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<v Speaker 1>don't pay attention to day to day massinations, but that

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<v Speaker 1>will pay attention when the proverbial government toilet is clogged,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and not being able to travel around Thanksgiving

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<v Speaker 1>at a time when we have almost no choice but

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<v Speaker 1>to use their airplanes in order to get where we

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<v Speaker 1>want to get in a short weekend was a way

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<v Speaker 1>that you were suddenly going to start impacting people that

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<v Speaker 1>don't normally pay attention to the day to day machinations,

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<v Speaker 1>and that actually can become long term more politically damaging

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<v Speaker 1>than anything you think is going for you in the

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<v Speaker 1>short term. So that's my basic way to explain the

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<v Speaker 1>situation we're in. Now. What's funny here is leave it

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<v Speaker 1>to the Democrats that come across. As you know, they're

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<v Speaker 1>essentially divided over tactics. They're not divided over any issue.

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<v Speaker 1>They all believe in this healthcare issue. They all believe

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<v Speaker 1>Trump needs to be confronted. They all believe they've got

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<v Speaker 1>to shift their messaging to cost of living issues. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>So this is a party that is fighting over tactics.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, do they have the right leaders? They probably don't.

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<v Speaker 1>Just changing leaders change the debate on tactics. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if it really does, but I will say this,

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<v Speaker 1>once you have lost the trust of the people you're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to lead, you probably ought to leave, right, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>And and the best thing for the party would be

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<v Speaker 1>if Chuck Schumer went out on his own, not forcing

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<v Speaker 1>more groups to come out calling for his resignation and

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<v Speaker 1>all this stuff. But ultimately, I don't know if it changes.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you're still going to have a leader that's

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<v Speaker 1>got to be thinking about, Hey, there's the base wants

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<v Speaker 1>one thing, but you still got to appeal to swing

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<v Speaker 1>voters if you actually want to win enough seats to

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<v Speaker 1>actually be in charge of governing something. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>that tension would exist whether it was Schumer, whether Brian

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<v Speaker 1>Schatz is there, whether it's Chris Murphy, whether it's Amy Klobashar,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's Patty Murray. Right, we could come up you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think if you know, this is one of

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<v Speaker 1>those moments where if Schumer just decided in the next

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<v Speaker 1>week to sort of, you know what, all right, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not wanted here, I'll take a step back. My

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<v Speaker 1>gut is Patty Murray would replace him because she'd be

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<v Speaker 1>seen as a quote unquote caretaker majority leader. She's at

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<v Speaker 1>this point the senior most member of the Democratic Senate

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<v Speaker 1>and nobody would cross her right and she really has

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<v Speaker 1>the respect of sort of all wings of the party.

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<v Speaker 1>I think she'd be seeing the original mom and tennis shoes,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, as she ran as a sort of a

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<v Speaker 1>populist candidate of her day in nineteen ninety two when

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<v Speaker 1>she first came on the national scene. I think she

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<v Speaker 1>would be seen as somebody that would would be less

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<v Speaker 1>of a public face for the party. And in some

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<v Speaker 1>ways I think many Senators wouldn't mind that and would

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<v Speaker 1>likely embrace that. But let's be realistic. You may not

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<v Speaker 1>see any change in the short term. To me. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>while it's easy to cover this tactical split inside the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party because it's sort of easy to do, it's

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<v Speaker 1>easy to create a cable news segment on it. It's

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<v Speaker 1>easy to find people to criticize, you know, it's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of an easy debate to have. It's not really that

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<v Speaker 1>big of a divide because it's not over some sort

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<v Speaker 1>of fundamental ideology ideological disagreement, you know, where for instance,

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<v Speaker 1>like things with Mom Donnie, those are fundamental ideological disagreements

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<v Speaker 1>about you know, how involved government should be in the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>That's that's a larger divide that I think doesn't really

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<v Speaker 1>get dealt with in the Democratic Party until the presidential

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<v Speaker 1>primaries take shape. But I tell you, even as everybody's

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<v Speaker 1>focused on the dem divide here, don't take your eye

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<v Speaker 1>off the ball of a growing Republican divide. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that is coming. I think that right now, if you're

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<v Speaker 1>a Republican elected official in Congress, you should You're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out what do I do when the leader

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<v Speaker 1>of the party is not accepting reality. And Donald Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>inability to accept the reality that this economy sucks for

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of his supporters is going to cause a

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<v Speaker 1>much bigger problem for the Publican Party than anything the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party is going through at the moment, because ultimately,

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<v Speaker 1>because they're in the minority and because they're in the opposition,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean, they're going to have a unity

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<v Speaker 1>of message, They're going to have a unity of focus.

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<v Speaker 1>They may disagree on how to deal with Trump in

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<v Speaker 1>the moment, but they're not going to disagree on how

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<v Speaker 1>to court the voters in twenty twenty six. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>divide that I think that is not the case on

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<v Speaker 1>the Republican side of the aisle. As this economy weakens

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<v Speaker 1>for those without money and essentially with those about real savings.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's what we're seeing here right This is a

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<v Speaker 1>this is the very definition of a trickle down economy

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<v Speaker 1>where Donald Trump is hoping that the bang, the stock

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<v Speaker 1>market success is going to somehow trickle down and help

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<v Speaker 1>everybody else. There's not a lot of evidence that that

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<v Speaker 1>ever works. You can just go back one hundred years

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<v Speaker 1>and see how that worked out. The last time we

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<v Speaker 1>sort of tried to put together an economy where government

0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:03.360
<v Speaker 1>and big business fused itself together like it did in

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<v Speaker 1>the in the early parts of the industrial and the

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<v Speaker 1>industrial age. That didn't end well. We got a great

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<v Speaker 1>depression and then finally government decided, the people decided, hey,

0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:16.320
<v Speaker 1>they wanted government, they wanted more guard rails on big business,

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<v Speaker 1>more guardrails on the economy than what we had at

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<v Speaker 1>the time, and I have a feeling we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>end up in a similar situation where we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>have a downturn caused by what we're seeing, this fusion

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<v Speaker 1>of big tech and government, and that is going to

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<v Speaker 1>awake awoke in a bunch of people who are going

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<v Speaker 1>to want more guardrails put on our economy, necessarily leaving capitalism,

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<v Speaker 1>but something more akin to what the two Roosevelts fought for,

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<v Speaker 1>both Teddy and Franklin in their in their very different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>But I did get a lot of questions on the shutdown,

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<v Speaker 1>so I decided that before we get to the interview

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<v Speaker 1>that I would answer all the shutdown related q and

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<v Speaker 1>as in this part of the podcast, we'll have our

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<v Speaker 1>individual will it then I'll do my top five list

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<v Speaker 1>this week. It's where the top five Senate seats most

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<v Speaker 1>likely to flip. It's let's just say the top five

0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:19.200
<v Speaker 1>has changed. Just like in college football, what the top

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<v Speaker 1>five was at the beginning of October is a lot

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<v Speaker 1>different than what the top five is at the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of November. So goes my list of top five most

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<v Speaker 1>likely most vulnerable Senate seats in twenty twenty six. But

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<v Speaker 1>before we get to all that, and I'll do some

0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.720
<v Speaker 1>q and as on other topics that were not shutdown related.

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<v Speaker 1>So we'll begin with this. This comes from Tim, and

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<v Speaker 1>he asks, I don't understand why the Democrats are being

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<v Speaker 1>blamed for the shutdown. If the Speaker will not convene

0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:46.480
<v Speaker 1>the House, how can the Dems vote against it? Also,

0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.439
<v Speaker 1>if the Republicans control the House, why can't they just

0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:51.760
<v Speaker 1>vote to pass it? I think too many times that reporter.

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<v Speaker 1>Too many times reporters assume that people know the cause

0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:57.120
<v Speaker 1>of the most basic facts about an issue, or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>this was reported the beginning of the shutdown, so they

0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:00.800
<v Speaker 1>don't need to read it those facts. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>has helpful to remind people periodically of those basic facts.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks Tim, Tim, you're absolutely right. This is a pet

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<v Speaker 1>peeve of mine. I talk about this two new journalists

0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.440
<v Speaker 1>or those folks in journalism school where I remind people,

0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.440
<v Speaker 1>because I learned this from interacting with viewers during my

0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:20.760
<v Speaker 1>time at Meet the Press. Is how often a viewer,

0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.480
<v Speaker 1>particularly a first generation American, would come up to me

0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.160
<v Speaker 1>and say that they watched Meet the Press to sort

0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:30.280
<v Speaker 1>of understand how the American government works. And every time

0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.480
<v Speaker 1>I would get a response like that, it would remind

0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:35.480
<v Speaker 1>me that, hey, we're in the education business first, right,

0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.400
<v Speaker 1>that's first and foremost what a journalist is. They're educating

0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:43.880
<v Speaker 1>the public, and we shouldn't forget that. And you know,

0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.560
<v Speaker 1>I had a viewer one time, I think it was

0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:50.360
<v Speaker 1>somebody on social media one time respond you know, somebody

0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:52.760
<v Speaker 1>was lamenting the fact that people didn't know that there

0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:54.839
<v Speaker 1>were nine members of the Supreme Court or how all

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.480
<v Speaker 1>that worked. Somebody said, how often do you put it

0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:01.360
<v Speaker 1>in your stories? And I thought, you know, that person's right.

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:07.199
<v Speaker 1>We sometimes don't reiterate basic facts about government because we

0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.520
<v Speaker 1>go through this well, people already know that, or the

0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:11.959
<v Speaker 1>people that are paying attention to this story are already

0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.760
<v Speaker 1>going to know those things. And you're like, well, what

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<v Speaker 1>about the Joe demage. You know, there was a great

0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:19.800
<v Speaker 1>saying by Joe Demaggio. He used to say he played

0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:23.280
<v Speaker 1>hard every game because he thought that there might be

0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.040
<v Speaker 1>somebody in the stands who was coming to see him

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:29.800
<v Speaker 1>for the very first time. And guess what, there's somebody

0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.720
<v Speaker 1>reading your story. There's somebody listening to my podcast, there's

0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.360
<v Speaker 1>somebody you know, reading your commentary for the very first time,

0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:41.200
<v Speaker 1>and if they don't understand it, they're not going to

0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:44.480
<v Speaker 1>read you again, right, or they may not be as

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:47.319
<v Speaker 1>they may not follow the topic you're trying to get

0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 1>them to follow because you didn't help them understand how

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 1>it works. So I look, I believe in this. You know,

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.440
<v Speaker 1>I look at my college football writers. They spend a

0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:00.760
<v Speaker 1>lot of time explaining how the college football playoff works.

0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:03.480
<v Speaker 1>So college football fans all know how the college football

0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 1>playoff works. But it's not because they went out to

0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:07.560
<v Speaker 1>look for it. It's because the new stories and the

0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:11.439
<v Speaker 1>news commentators and ESPN in particular constantly wants to remind

0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 1>people how it works. Now they have an incentive, they're

0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.680
<v Speaker 1>trying to make a bigger deal out of it. Well,

0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 1>we ought to take that same premise there. So you're

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:25.200
<v Speaker 1>asking why did the Democrats get why should the Democrats

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.239
<v Speaker 1>get blaim to their shutdown? Well, it was technically Democrats

0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that withheld just enough votes where the continuing Resolution to

0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 1>keep the government open couldn't pass the Senate. Now in

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the House, Mike Johnson got a party line vote and

0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.840
<v Speaker 1>he passed the continuing Resolution in the House. So what

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 1>they did is he passed that bill and then they

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:47.880
<v Speaker 1>want to This is a case where the House wanted

0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:50.480
<v Speaker 1>to jam the Senate and they didn't want to. And

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 1>his thesis was, I'm not even going to come. I'm

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 1>not going to convene the House until the Senate deals

0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 1>with the bill that we gave them, and we gave

0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:00.560
<v Speaker 1>him a bill to keep the government open. It's up

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.880
<v Speaker 1>to them to get that bill passed. So this is

0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.559
<v Speaker 1>the whole the House passed its version. So no, you're right,

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 1>the House didn't didn't convene while the government was shut down.

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>But what Johnson's thesis was they didn't need to because

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.679
<v Speaker 1>there was no legislation. Now why else did he keep

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 1>him out, Well because he didn't want his members, you know,

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.040
<v Speaker 1>board showing up on cable TV saying things that would

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:29.160
<v Speaker 1>cause them political pain, etc. Etc. But it was also

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 1>a tactic, and this is something that happens. You know,

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.240
<v Speaker 1>there's always a joke in Congress that you know that

0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.280
<v Speaker 1>the real divide in Congress is not Democrats versus Republicans,

0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:41.160
<v Speaker 1>it's the House versus the Senate. And so you know,

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.720
<v Speaker 1>the House was essentially jamming the Senate and jamming John Thune.

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 1>So it's up to John Thune, who had fifty three

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Republican senators, actually fifty two because Rand Paul indicated he

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 1>was going to vote against this deal, he had to

0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.880
<v Speaker 1>go find eight Democrats. So in that sense, this is

0:14:55.920 --> 0:15:00.960
<v Speaker 1>why in theory, because it needed sixty votes when Democrats

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:06.120
<v Speaker 1>withheld their votes. Unless the Republicans are willing to get

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.000
<v Speaker 1>rid of the filibuster, which was something Donald Trump talked about,

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>then the only way the government could get reopened is

0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 1>if eight Democrats joined fifty two Republicans to reopen the government.

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 1>So I think what you're right about is every time

0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:27.720
<v Speaker 1>that the story was reported that would not be explained

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:31.200
<v Speaker 1>at the top, And I think it's a bad habit

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 1>professional journalists, particularly Washington journalists, have come. I always say

0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of times Washington reports for Washington or

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.800
<v Speaker 1>producers produce segments for producers. They don't think about sort

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 1>of are we educating somebody who's tuning in for the

0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 1>very first time, And you know, in that sense, I

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 1>think that's something that we all need to do better on.

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.480
<v Speaker 1>In this way, I love the podcast format where I

0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:00.240
<v Speaker 1>can feel like I'm not I don't have some sort

0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.960
<v Speaker 1>of time constraint where I have to take a shortcut

0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 1>on something because the main thing I need to convey

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.520
<v Speaker 1>needs a certain amount of time to explain, and I

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 1>don't want to take away from that by having to

0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:16.760
<v Speaker 1>explain the basics and yet not explaining the basics all

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.960
<v Speaker 1>the time. Is what makes politics inaccessible to people. And

0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:23.840
<v Speaker 1>I've always said my real goal, and I've had this

0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 1>goal ever since I entered journalism is and political journalism is.

0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 1>I love politics, and my job is to explain it

0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 1>in such a way that it's more accessible to people.

0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, there was another person who used to go

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 1>out of his way to talk about the Gang of

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 1>five hundred and made politics inaccessible and would claim that

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 1>politics was an exclusive club and only those in the

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 1>know understood it. Yeah, there's people that want politics to

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:54.120
<v Speaker 1>be that way, so that way they are not subject

0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:58.040
<v Speaker 1>to what the actual democracy wants, small d democracy wants,

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.040
<v Speaker 1>And so in that sense, I may populous when it

0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 1>comes to information, and I think we need to make

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 1>politics more accessible, more understandable, so more people understand how

0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:11.840
<v Speaker 1>much it's impacting their lives. I hope that helped you

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:18.880
<v Speaker 1>as to understand why in this case democrats had skin

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.719
<v Speaker 1>in the game. Here, there's a reason results matter more

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.560
<v Speaker 1>than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:29.080
<v Speaker 1>is America's largest injury law firm. For the last thirty

0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.239
<v Speaker 1>five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more

0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 1>than half a million clients. It includes cases where insurance

0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.200
<v Speaker 1>companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to get away

0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:41.760
<v Speaker 1>with paying as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.960
<v Speaker 1>back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:48.040
<v Speaker 1>client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a

0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company originally offered.

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.359
<v Speaker 1>That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty

0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:57.760
<v Speaker 1>six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars. So with

0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:00.159
<v Speaker 1>more than a thousand lawyers across the country, they know

0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:02.679
<v Speaker 1>how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured, you

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.120
<v Speaker 1>need a lawyer, You need somebody to get your back.

0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.320
<v Speaker 1>Check out for the People dot Com, Slash podcast or

0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:13.920
<v Speaker 1>now Pound Law, Pound five two nine law on your

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 1>cell phone. And remember all law firms are not the same,

0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.760
<v Speaker 1>So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free

0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:25.520
<v Speaker 1>unless they win all right. Next question comes from Brian

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:27.359
<v Speaker 1>in New England. Right, So, I can't help but notice

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.199
<v Speaker 1>all of the liberal political commentators seem to think they

0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 1>have lost the shutdown fight. Likewise, all of the conservative

0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:36.200
<v Speaker 1>political commentators believe they somehow won the shutdown fight, assuming

0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:38.719
<v Speaker 1>no last minute silliness by Senator Ran Paul. Yet all

0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 1>of the more moderate political commentators seemed to paint a

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 1>vastly different picture as to who won and lost, and

0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>most seem to think Democrats got most out of the shutdown.

0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 1>So this brings up a good question, how do you

0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.640
<v Speaker 1>win a shutdown fight? How do you know who won

0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 1>the shutdown fight? Can you even win a shutdown fight?

0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 1>Or is it really just a lose lose lose for

0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:56.480
<v Speaker 1>everyone involved? Or at the end of the day, is

0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 1>who won or lost a shutdown? All just vibes and

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:01.320
<v Speaker 1>fuzzy feelings? Anyway? To me, it kind of feels like

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:03.359
<v Speaker 1>the old whose line is at any Way? TV? Show?

0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.400
<v Speaker 1>Everything is made up and the points don't seem to matter. Well,

0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 1>look this is you know, if you really want to

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 1>wind me up, The entire shutdown process is a manufactured

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:19.360
<v Speaker 1>political circus. The idea that the that the most important

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 1>government on the face of the earth has a has

0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:29.240
<v Speaker 1>a bug in it that allows for parts of the

0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:32.359
<v Speaker 1>government to just simply shut down when there is a

0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 1>political dispute over funding levels. Is got to be one

0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:41.639
<v Speaker 1>of the dumber things anybody does. The idea that you know,

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:45.320
<v Speaker 1>I just think that the legal interpretations and I went

0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:47.240
<v Speaker 1>through this for those of you that wanted to go off,

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:51.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, I am, but let me just tell you,

0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:54.479
<v Speaker 1>I am furious that there is not a single effing

0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:57.359
<v Speaker 1>member of Congress in the center of the House that

0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 1>is rallying around the idea that we need to prevent

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.439
<v Speaker 1>shutdowns from ever happening again. It is absurd that we

0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:06.680
<v Speaker 1>are hiring people to be air traffic controllers and part

0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.359
<v Speaker 1>of the process is, hey, you know, every couple of

0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:11.359
<v Speaker 1>years there's going to be a political fight and you're

0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:12.880
<v Speaker 1>not going to get paid for about a month or two.

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:17.479
<v Speaker 1>Are you okay with that? What kind of circus are

0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:21.600
<v Speaker 1>we running here? I mean, that's just you know, deciding

0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:27.040
<v Speaker 1>to run to intentionally create a shit show government. It's stupid,

0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:33.400
<v Speaker 1>it's unnecessary, and it shouldn't be. It's dumb, it's it's

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:37.080
<v Speaker 1>and it all the only people that benefit from a

0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:40.240
<v Speaker 1>shutdown are elected officials who are trying to make a

0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:42.959
<v Speaker 1>name for themselves. You ask who wins in a shutdown,

0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 1>Individuals win, No party wins. Nobody likes the result of

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:51.639
<v Speaker 1>the shutdown at the end of the day, everybody collectively

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:56.120
<v Speaker 1>hates the process of it, right, But the winners are individuals.

0:20:56.680 --> 0:20:59.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, Ted Cruz, you know. So take the twenty

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:04.720
<v Speaker 1>thirteen shutdown. Republicans quote unquote are seen as having lost

0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:07.880
<v Speaker 1>that shutdown, right because politically they did. If it wasn't

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:10.160
<v Speaker 1>for the shutdown, Republicans would have won a governor seat

0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:12.800
<v Speaker 1>in Virginia that year, and instead Democrats won the governor seat.

0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:16.040
<v Speaker 1>So you could look at just sort of the tactics

0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:19.480
<v Speaker 1>and say, up, Republicans lost, and Ted Cruise was unpavable.

0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:22.919
<v Speaker 1>Yet Ted Cruz built a political following. Ted Cruz was

0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.560
<v Speaker 1>trying to run for president in twenty sixteen and build

0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:29.760
<v Speaker 1>a national following. So it worked for Ted Cruz. And

0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:33.680
<v Speaker 1>that's who these shutdowns are for. They're for partisan actors,

0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:38.280
<v Speaker 1>pure and simple, to try to make a name for themselves.

0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:40.840
<v Speaker 1>That's so the only people that have ever come out

0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 1>quote unquote ahead. Right. It becomes about who can raise

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:47.280
<v Speaker 1>the most money off of the silliness of the shutdown.

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.200
<v Speaker 1>And I'm sorry, I just think the idea that it's

0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:55.920
<v Speaker 1>a practice that is somehow allowed and the only the

0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:59.080
<v Speaker 1>only reason to have it is to figure out a

0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:01.400
<v Speaker 1>way to bring more at time tention to a funding dispute.

0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Guess what, perhaps we shouldn't put three hundred and fifty

0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:15.560
<v Speaker 1>million people in the crosshairs of a political disagreement over

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:21.680
<v Speaker 1>funding levels. That seems like a waste of a superpower's time.

0:22:22.600 --> 0:22:25.240
<v Speaker 1>It actually makes us more vulnerable as a nation on

0:22:25.359 --> 0:22:30.760
<v Speaker 1>national security. It is certainly a huge sign of weakness.

0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:36.520
<v Speaker 1>And again there's you know, so a responsible democracy and

0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:40.919
<v Speaker 1>a responsible government wouldn't put put us in a situation

0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 1>where we can just easily have a couple of people

0:22:45.560 --> 0:22:48.159
<v Speaker 1>decide that the government is just going to close its doors.

0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:51.879
<v Speaker 1>And then, of course we've exempted so many aspects of

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:55.200
<v Speaker 1>the shutdown that if the initial idea of the shutdown

0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:57.600
<v Speaker 1>was to you know, it was going to be so

0:22:57.720 --> 0:23:00.879
<v Speaker 1>painful that everybody wouldn't want it to be be for

0:23:01.000 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 1>more than a day or two. But when you take

0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:05.640
<v Speaker 1>away you know, when you decide, well, social security isn't

0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:07.200
<v Speaker 1>going to be a part of it, and we'll exempt

0:23:07.240 --> 0:23:09.639
<v Speaker 1>military pay, and we'll exempt this, and we'll exempt that.

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:13.159
<v Speaker 1>Then it becomes easier to do the political theater. So

0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 1>I have to say, I, as a as a voter

0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:18.320
<v Speaker 1>who would like to have less dysfunction in our politics,

0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:22.800
<v Speaker 1>am sorry that there's not a single elected member of Congress,

0:23:23.000 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Democrat or Republican currently advocating a no shutdowns bill. They've

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:29.879
<v Speaker 1>existed in the past, where are they now? Where are

0:23:29.880 --> 0:23:32.840
<v Speaker 1>they today? Instead, everybody wants to perform for the frickin'

0:23:32.920 --> 0:23:36.440
<v Speaker 1>basis of each party because of how stupidly we've gerrymandered

0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:39.159
<v Speaker 1>everything and our partisan primaries, all of those things, right,

0:23:39.200 --> 0:23:42.199
<v Speaker 1>we have, all of our incentive structures are for politicians

0:23:42.200 --> 0:23:47.040
<v Speaker 1>to only pay attention to the base. And it's just

0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:50.160
<v Speaker 1>so the people that hate this shutdown stuff the most

0:23:50.200 --> 0:23:53.840
<v Speaker 1>are the ones that aren't partisan activists. And it doesn't

0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:57.520
<v Speaker 1>seem like there's a single person in Congress that represents

0:23:58.760 --> 0:24:03.200
<v Speaker 1>the constituency that just doesn't want the goddamn toilet clogged purposely,

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:08.160
<v Speaker 1>and instead this is what we have. So I don't

0:24:08.160 --> 0:24:09.560
<v Speaker 1>know if I answer your question right, I don't think

0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:12.520
<v Speaker 1>anybody won the shutdown fight. And if you're wondering to me.

0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:18.439
<v Speaker 1>You know, it is one of those where the only

0:24:18.560 --> 0:24:20.879
<v Speaker 1>time anybody gains from it is if they're trying to

0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:24.360
<v Speaker 1>if it's somebody individually trying to build their own following

0:24:24.920 --> 0:24:28.160
<v Speaker 1>for some sort of national political purpose, you know. And

0:24:28.320 --> 0:24:32.080
<v Speaker 1>the best example of that Ted Cruise twenty thirteen, a

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:35.120
<v Speaker 1>shutdown that was seen as a loser but actually gave

0:24:35.240 --> 0:24:38.800
<v Speaker 1>Ted Cruz a constituency. All right, next question comes from

0:24:38.880 --> 0:24:41.200
<v Speaker 1>Kenny from Long Islanding Rights. My question for you is

0:24:41.200 --> 0:24:43.119
<v Speaker 1>about the deal that seems to have been struck. It

0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 1>seems to me that the Democrats traded their leverage for

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:46.920
<v Speaker 1>a campaign at the Republicans will not have to take

0:24:46.960 --> 0:24:50.240
<v Speaker 1>the tough vote, but will inevitably vote down the Obamacare subsidies.

0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:52.479
<v Speaker 1>And that's about it. It snap resumes, payments resumed, no one

0:24:52.520 --> 0:24:54.639
<v Speaker 1>gets fired. But all that is the standard course of

0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:56.479
<v Speaker 1>events for the end of a shutdown. The only thing

0:24:56.520 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 1>Senator Schumer seems to have extracted here is a tough vote.

0:24:58.720 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 1>Am I reading this correctly? If so so, why on

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:02.520
<v Speaker 1>earth would he have fought this hard and held out

0:25:02.520 --> 0:25:04.199
<v Speaker 1>this lung, only to give up and walk away with

0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:06.840
<v Speaker 1>nothing to show for it. Lastly, I agree and disagree

0:25:06.840 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 1>with your assessment about President Trump entering this lame duck era.

0:25:09.600 --> 0:25:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I agree that's the biggest takeaway for the shutdown resolution.

0:25:13.400 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 1>To me, though, it's not because of the defiance. It's

0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:18.280
<v Speaker 1>because they negotiated a solution without him in the Senate.

0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:20.959
<v Speaker 1>At least the President disengaged and made it easy for

0:25:21.000 --> 0:25:23.400
<v Speaker 1>this to play out, but ultimately Senator thuonstruck the deal.

0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:25.800
<v Speaker 1>I love the new format and I feel as though

0:25:25.800 --> 0:25:27.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm learning so much more about the inside game when

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.160
<v Speaker 1>it comes to politics. Thank you for the scoop, all right, Kenny.

0:25:30.160 --> 0:25:36.680
<v Speaker 1>I appreciate the construction constructive critique there on that front.

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:41.879
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting. I guess I could word it, you know,

0:25:41.960 --> 0:25:44.240
<v Speaker 1>and again I would word it differently. I don't think

0:25:44.359 --> 0:25:49.520
<v Speaker 1>there's a cave here. I think there is. I think

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:51.680
<v Speaker 1>Warnock said it. He said, if you're going to say

0:25:52.320 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 1>that the Democratic Party seems to care about those on

0:25:57.320 --> 0:26:00.560
<v Speaker 1>snap benefits more than the Republican Party cares about then

0:26:00.640 --> 0:26:02.920
<v Speaker 1>I think he said, guilty is charged, right, that that's

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:06.280
<v Speaker 1>not a And I think if you're you know, again,

0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:10.680
<v Speaker 1>a better leader and a better communicator would not have

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:14.520
<v Speaker 1>would not have signaled that this is over, would signal that,

0:26:15.000 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 1>you know what, I think we've We've gotten more people

0:26:19.600 --> 0:26:23.480
<v Speaker 1>aware of this healthcare issue. We're sorry that the President

0:26:23.520 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 1>wants to irresponsibly punish people that have nothing and weaponize

0:26:28.080 --> 0:26:31.800
<v Speaker 1>the FAA and all of this, and so we're not

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:34.480
<v Speaker 1>going to let them do that. So we're going to

0:26:34.520 --> 0:26:36.360
<v Speaker 1>take a pause in this over the next two months.

0:26:36.800 --> 0:26:39.760
<v Speaker 1>We're going to make sure people can travel for the holidays.

0:26:39.800 --> 0:26:43.240
<v Speaker 1>And come January, there's another vote to reopen the government

0:26:43.280 --> 0:26:47.119
<v Speaker 1>and there's Obamacare subsidies. Okay, so I don't think they

0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:49.480
<v Speaker 1>gave away any leverage. I think they still have leverage

0:26:49.520 --> 0:26:53.919
<v Speaker 1>in January to essentially shut down government again if they

0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:58.119
<v Speaker 1>want to, if these Obamacare subsidies don't get passed for

0:26:58.160 --> 0:27:02.760
<v Speaker 1>a year. I I think that there's going to be

0:27:04.920 --> 0:27:07.439
<v Speaker 1>a majority of the US House that votes for these

0:27:07.440 --> 0:27:10.439
<v Speaker 1>Obamacare subsidies. Not a majority of Republicans, but a majority

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:15.000
<v Speaker 1>of the House. I think you will see somewhere between

0:27:15.000 --> 0:27:18.159
<v Speaker 1>thirty and forty Republicans who do this. I think you

0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:22.760
<v Speaker 1>will see ten to fifteen Senate Republicans wanting to be

0:27:22.800 --> 0:27:24.919
<v Speaker 1>for this. So I think it's going to happen. I

0:27:24.960 --> 0:27:27.240
<v Speaker 1>think the results of the I mean, I think the

0:27:27.280 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 1>biggest impact on the healthcare subsidies was the twenty five

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:35.639
<v Speaker 1>election results. The fact that it was a romp, the

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 1>fact that cost the living issues and Democrats didn't even

0:27:39.320 --> 0:27:41.439
<v Speaker 1>have the healthcare issue yet and it was working for them.

0:27:41.480 --> 0:27:44.840
<v Speaker 1>We already know how well healthcare works as an opposition

0:27:44.920 --> 0:27:47.560
<v Speaker 1>issue when you're messing with it. We just saw it

0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:50.320
<v Speaker 1>in twenty eighteen that benefited the Democrats and back in

0:27:50.359 --> 0:27:54.440
<v Speaker 1>twenty ten when it benefited the Republicans. Anytime you mess

0:27:54.480 --> 0:27:56.639
<v Speaker 1>with the status quo of healthcare, the party messing with

0:27:56.680 --> 0:27:59.080
<v Speaker 1>the status quo gets punished. And in this case that's

0:27:59.119 --> 0:28:03.879
<v Speaker 1>going to be now Publicans. And so I guess I

0:28:03.960 --> 0:28:10.480
<v Speaker 1>don't accept the premise that they got rid of any

0:28:10.520 --> 0:28:14.159
<v Speaker 1>of their leverage. And I think this is why I

0:28:14.200 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 1>could argue, this is why Schumer should go, because he's

0:28:16.520 --> 0:28:19.200
<v Speaker 1>a terrible communicator and he couldn't communicate that they won.

0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:23.440
<v Speaker 1>They won if you want him, you know, and he's

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:27.560
<v Speaker 1>trying now, but he just doesn't have credibility with anybody anymore. Right.

0:28:27.680 --> 0:28:30.240
<v Speaker 1>It's like like I said, I keep comparing Schumer to

0:28:30.240 --> 0:28:32.960
<v Speaker 1>Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick. They used to have credibility

0:28:32.960 --> 0:28:36.399
<v Speaker 1>with the players they coached. Now they don't anymore. That happens.

0:28:36.520 --> 0:28:40.160
<v Speaker 1>It happens in every walk of life. It happens to

0:28:40.200 --> 0:28:42.600
<v Speaker 1>political leaders all the time. There's a moment when they

0:28:42.640 --> 0:28:45.160
<v Speaker 1>have uber leverage over the entire party, and there's moments

0:28:45.200 --> 0:28:47.880
<v Speaker 1>where nobody will listen to them. George W. Bush had

0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:49.960
<v Speaker 1>so much influence over his party for a period of

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:52.560
<v Speaker 1>time until he had no influence over his party for

0:28:52.600 --> 0:28:59.160
<v Speaker 1>a period of time. Right, it is political capital is elusive.

0:28:59.280 --> 0:29:01.680
<v Speaker 1>When you have it, you better spend it because if

0:29:01.720 --> 0:29:09.600
<v Speaker 1>you try to save it, it'll disappear. So I guess

0:29:09.600 --> 0:29:12.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm not I think they could have communicated this in

0:29:12.600 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 1>such a way where they could have been seen as

0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:19.520
<v Speaker 1>the adult in the room and not giving up their

0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 1>fight on healthcare because technically they've given themselves opportunities before

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:31.920
<v Speaker 1>the State of the Union in February to make this

0:29:33.080 --> 0:29:37.320
<v Speaker 1>a showdown vote one more time. All right, last question

0:29:37.360 --> 0:29:40.760
<v Speaker 1>comes from David Crowder, and then we'll get to the

0:29:40.760 --> 0:29:43.000
<v Speaker 1>interview with Joe Willett. I like your work in thoughtfulness,

0:29:43.000 --> 0:29:44.960
<v Speaker 1>Thank you saw your podcast is sam First Info in

0:29:45.040 --> 0:29:47.800
<v Speaker 1>j Jones came out in mid October Virginia begins early

0:29:47.840 --> 0:29:50.120
<v Speaker 1>voting mid September. You get my point. Second, the shutdown

0:29:51.120 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 1>argument pre pandemic. Some twelve millions participated in the bill,

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:57.880
<v Speaker 1>their subsidies remain with premium increases. It's not a big deal.

0:29:57.880 --> 0:30:00.000
<v Speaker 1>The big deal is the twelve million who enrolled post pandemic,

0:30:00.400 --> 0:30:03.560
<v Speaker 1>who did not qualify financially for pre pandemic for subsidies,

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:06.440
<v Speaker 1>they lose the subsidies. Is that disconnect worth shutting down

0:30:06.480 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>the government? I don't know. Seems like some form of

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:11.800
<v Speaker 1>the subsidy could be agreed upon. Finally, the tax breaks

0:30:11.800 --> 0:30:14.000
<v Speaker 1>that were scheduled to expire were extended. The differences the

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:19.800
<v Speaker 1>subsidies weren't scheduled to expire. It's all crap, David. You've

0:30:20.880 --> 0:30:26.520
<v Speaker 1>summarized the poor legislative process quite well, right. You know

0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:28.720
<v Speaker 1>the fact that we have such a dysfunctional way that

0:30:28.760 --> 0:30:32.440
<v Speaker 1>we make laws now, and we have such distrust of

0:30:32.680 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 1>the two parties that they there's always a weird poison

0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:39.520
<v Speaker 1>pills in different ways. Right. The subsidies they can't you know,

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:42.920
<v Speaker 1>did Democrats want those subsidies in perpetuity? They did? Could

0:30:42.960 --> 0:30:45.240
<v Speaker 1>they not get enough votes to get them without putting

0:30:45.280 --> 0:30:47.800
<v Speaker 1>some sort of time stamp on it. They couldn't. Ditto

0:30:47.840 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 1>with the with the tax cut, right, they couldn't. Trump

0:30:51.160 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 1>couldn't get it permanent, so instead he had an expiration

0:30:54.960 --> 0:31:00.400
<v Speaker 1>date on it, hoping that the expiration would serve as

0:31:00.400 --> 0:31:02.640
<v Speaker 1>a fear of a tax hike and then that somehow

0:31:02.680 --> 0:31:05.440
<v Speaker 1>would get people to renew them. The Bush tax cuts

0:31:05.480 --> 0:31:08.480
<v Speaker 1>worked this way, right, these ten year increments. We do

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:11.280
<v Speaker 1>this sort of funny business accounting when it comes to

0:31:11.680 --> 0:31:14.920
<v Speaker 1>the impact on the deficit, with these funny numbers with

0:31:14.960 --> 0:31:18.280
<v Speaker 1>the Congressional Budget Office and these estimates that are all

0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:22.640
<v Speaker 1>that are all just sort of make assumptions that nobody

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:25.280
<v Speaker 1>can assume when it comes to the actual state of

0:31:25.320 --> 0:31:29.800
<v Speaker 1>the economy. But we make these deficit projections in such

0:31:29.800 --> 0:31:35.520
<v Speaker 1>a way that it encourages these sort of false expiration dates. Right,

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:39.360
<v Speaker 1>some will have them, some will don't. They're usually time

0:31:39.480 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 1>to make it politically difficult to somehow not extend the deadline,

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 1>whether it's on a tax rate or whether it's on

0:31:48.080 --> 0:31:54.560
<v Speaker 1>a subsidy or whatever it is. So this goes to

0:31:54.640 --> 0:31:58.800
<v Speaker 1>the this is what you get when you don't have

0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:03.720
<v Speaker 1>a functioning committee process in Congress and not to get

0:32:04.040 --> 0:32:09.360
<v Speaker 1>really dorky here, But essentially when we totally polarized the

0:32:09.440 --> 0:32:14.560
<v Speaker 1>US Houses, which which really began sort of late eighties,

0:32:14.560 --> 0:32:18.680
<v Speaker 1>early nineties, right, and you know, there's those in the

0:32:18.760 --> 0:32:21.360
<v Speaker 1>right blame Jim Right and the Democrats, those in the

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:25.040
<v Speaker 1>left blame Nut Gingrids and the Republicans. I think I

0:32:25.120 --> 0:32:28.200
<v Speaker 1>think sort of there was. There was certainly power plays

0:32:28.240 --> 0:32:31.640
<v Speaker 1>that Jim Right made that New Gingridge then emulated and

0:32:31.680 --> 0:32:36.400
<v Speaker 1>took to took to an took even further that ultimately

0:32:36.440 --> 0:32:41.600
<v Speaker 1>destroyed the committee process and the destruction of the congressional

0:32:41.640 --> 0:32:46.080
<v Speaker 1>committee process both in the House and the Senate, is

0:32:46.160 --> 0:32:50.160
<v Speaker 1>why we get such poorly written legislation which used so

0:32:50.520 --> 0:32:54.320
<v Speaker 1>I think eloquently pointed out with the way you worded

0:32:54.320 --> 0:32:59.080
<v Speaker 1>your question, the fact that the question was a bit confusing.

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:01.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't put on you, I put on Congress because

0:33:01.960 --> 0:33:04.320
<v Speaker 1>this is how they legislate now, with these sort of

0:33:05.200 --> 0:33:08.800
<v Speaker 1>weird expiration dates. It's all designed to create sort of

0:33:08.920 --> 0:33:12.840
<v Speaker 1>political poison, almost almost like these these sort of delayed

0:33:13.160 --> 0:33:15.840
<v Speaker 1>bombs that suddenly explode and you have no choice but

0:33:15.960 --> 0:33:19.040
<v Speaker 1>to continue a policy that maybe you were never in

0:33:19.080 --> 0:33:22.040
<v Speaker 1>favor of. You know, Obama didn't want to Obama ran

0:33:22.080 --> 0:33:24.320
<v Speaker 1>on getting rid of the Bush tax cuts. Turns out

0:33:24.320 --> 0:33:26.160
<v Speaker 1>he couldn't get rid of them because of what kind

0:33:26.200 --> 0:33:28.960
<v Speaker 1>of impact it would have had on a number of

0:33:29.000 --> 0:33:31.880
<v Speaker 1>people seeing their tax bills go up, and he didn't

0:33:31.920 --> 0:33:34.520
<v Speaker 1>want to politically put himself in that situation. He had

0:33:34.520 --> 0:33:36.680
<v Speaker 1>made a pledge not to raise taxes on anybody over

0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 1>I think it was four hundred thousand dollars. So that's

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:47.880
<v Speaker 1>the new line that they drew on that. So ultimately,

0:33:48.560 --> 0:33:51.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, someday we're going to have a Speaker of

0:33:51.680 --> 0:33:55.400
<v Speaker 1>the House and a Senate Majority leader that actually wants

0:33:56.040 --> 0:33:59.719
<v Speaker 1>to make the legislative branch greade again. But until that

0:33:59.760 --> 0:34:04.960
<v Speaker 1>time comes, we're going to continue to have this poor,

0:34:05.520 --> 0:34:11.759
<v Speaker 1>horribly dysfunctional legislative process that we've now seen that for

0:34:11.880 --> 0:34:16.600
<v Speaker 1>many of you, feels like the normal way Congress works,

0:34:16.719 --> 0:34:20.560
<v Speaker 1>because trust me, this was not the intent. How Congresses

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:24.239
<v Speaker 1>worked the last thirty years is not the way that

0:34:24.400 --> 0:34:27.400
<v Speaker 1>Congress was intended to work in the previous two hundred

0:34:27.440 --> 0:34:32.719
<v Speaker 1>and twenty days. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is

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<v Speaker 1>get the discount. I'm telling you it's excellent, excellent, Brett.

0:36:09.280 --> 0:36:11.320
<v Speaker 1>It is that time I said every month I would

0:36:11.800 --> 0:36:21.359
<v Speaker 1>update my top five, top five, top top just a

0:36:21.400 --> 0:36:24.799
<v Speaker 1>reminder in October and the way I do this and

0:36:24.840 --> 0:36:27.160
<v Speaker 1>my ranks have been doing this since I wrote a

0:36:27.200 --> 0:36:30.400
<v Speaker 1>column called on the Trail back during my National Journal

0:36:30.440 --> 0:36:33.960
<v Speaker 1>dot com outline days, which was I like to order.

0:36:34.000 --> 0:36:38.279
<v Speaker 1>These races are most likely to flip parties, so not

0:36:38.560 --> 0:36:41.319
<v Speaker 1>in the toss up lean R lean D category, but

0:36:41.719 --> 0:36:44.719
<v Speaker 1>most likely to flip to least likely to flip. Obviously,

0:36:44.760 --> 0:36:47.359
<v Speaker 1>by keeping it to five, you know all of them

0:36:47.400 --> 0:36:50.000
<v Speaker 1>are going to be somewhat competitive races that crack the

0:36:50.000 --> 0:36:52.600
<v Speaker 1>top five. So to remind you, the last time my

0:36:52.719 --> 0:36:56.640
<v Speaker 1>top five was North Carolina one, Georgia two, Michigan three,

0:36:57.040 --> 0:37:02.320
<v Speaker 1>Main four, New Hampshire five. So the idea was I had.

0:37:03.160 --> 0:37:06.120
<v Speaker 1>The assumption was the open seat in North Carolina with

0:37:06.200 --> 0:37:09.439
<v Speaker 1>a big recruit there. North Carolina, Georgia's the Democratic health

0:37:09.480 --> 0:37:12.080
<v Speaker 1>seat of John Ossoff. Michigan, of course, the open seat

0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:16.319
<v Speaker 1>Gary Peters Democrat is vacating. Maine is Susan Collins, New

0:37:16.320 --> 0:37:21.560
<v Speaker 1>Hampshire is the Gene Shheen seat that she is vacating,

0:37:21.600 --> 0:37:26.040
<v Speaker 1>a Democratic seat there. So look my new top five.

0:37:26.080 --> 0:37:30.440
<v Speaker 1>In some ways, number one hasn't changed. The most likely

0:37:30.719 --> 0:37:34.680
<v Speaker 1>seat to flip is North Carolina. It is an open seat.

0:37:34.760 --> 0:37:37.400
<v Speaker 1>It is the one open seat, you know, one of

0:37:37.480 --> 0:37:40.600
<v Speaker 1>two open seats in the big seven battleground states. Right,

0:37:40.640 --> 0:37:43.920
<v Speaker 1>The big seven battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,

0:37:44.000 --> 0:37:47.880
<v Speaker 1>Nevada in sort of the sun belt, and Wisconsin, Michigan,

0:37:48.160 --> 0:37:51.080
<v Speaker 1>and Pennsylvania. And so when you look at the competitive

0:37:52.320 --> 0:37:55.919
<v Speaker 1>Senate map these days, there's actually, you know, the last

0:37:55.920 --> 0:37:59.279
<v Speaker 1>two cycles, they all seven of those states. I think

0:37:59.320 --> 0:38:01.319
<v Speaker 1>two cycles in a we either had seven for seven

0:38:01.400 --> 0:38:03.759
<v Speaker 1>or six of the seven with Senate seats this time, right,

0:38:03.760 --> 0:38:07.120
<v Speaker 1>we'd have nothing in Arizona, nothing in Nevada. There's one

0:38:07.160 --> 0:38:11.160
<v Speaker 1>seat in Georgia, one seat in North Carolina, nothing in Pennsylvania,

0:38:11.239 --> 0:38:13.799
<v Speaker 1>nothing in Wisconsin, and one seat in Michigan. So it

0:38:13.880 --> 0:38:16.799
<v Speaker 1>is the presidential battlegrounds. This happens to be the one

0:38:17.960 --> 0:38:20.800
<v Speaker 1>cycle where we have the fewest amount of Senate seats

0:38:20.800 --> 0:38:22.880
<v Speaker 1>in the presidential battlegrounds. But I think you still have

0:38:22.920 --> 0:38:25.920
<v Speaker 1>to put you know, I think what I learned from

0:38:25.960 --> 0:38:31.080
<v Speaker 1>the twenty twenty five elections, and again history being a guide.

0:38:31.960 --> 0:38:37.120
<v Speaker 1>Every time we've seen a route like this by one party,

0:38:37.880 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 1>we have seen that continue in the following even numbered year.

0:38:43.120 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 1>I am looking for the time. I mean, twenty thirteen

0:38:46.520 --> 0:38:49.120
<v Speaker 1>is one of the few exceptions where Democrats did well

0:38:49.120 --> 0:38:52.040
<v Speaker 1>in the off off year, but that did not translate

0:38:52.080 --> 0:38:55.160
<v Speaker 1>to twenty fourteen, which was not a good year for

0:38:55.280 --> 0:38:58.919
<v Speaker 1>Democrats in there. And again, right, there's a reason twenty

0:38:58.960 --> 0:39:01.319
<v Speaker 1>thirteen is the exception to every single one of these

0:39:01.360 --> 0:39:04.600
<v Speaker 1>trend lines we've been talking about with New Jersey and Virginia,

0:39:04.640 --> 0:39:08.279
<v Speaker 1>et cetera. And you know, certain things I think that

0:39:08.360 --> 0:39:12.080
<v Speaker 1>I took away from the off off years. One, Democrats

0:39:12.080 --> 0:39:15.600
<v Speaker 1>are ready to vote, and you know, the sheer, raw

0:39:15.800 --> 0:39:19.120
<v Speaker 1>number of votes that the Democratic candidate got in New

0:39:19.200 --> 0:39:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Jersey versus the Republican candidate continues to blow me away.

0:39:22.040 --> 0:39:25.120
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's the single most important statistic that

0:39:25.200 --> 0:39:27.400
<v Speaker 1>you need to understand coming out of these off off

0:39:27.480 --> 0:39:31.440
<v Speaker 1>year elections. Right, Jack Chitarelli, the Republican nominee for governor,

0:39:31.520 --> 0:39:33.920
<v Speaker 1>actually got one hundred thousand more votes than he received

0:39:33.960 --> 0:39:37.640
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty one. In twenty twenty one, that vote

0:39:37.680 --> 0:39:40.120
<v Speaker 1>total was good enough to only lose by three percentage points.

0:39:40.560 --> 0:39:43.600
<v Speaker 1>In twenty twenty five, where he got more votes, he

0:39:43.680 --> 0:39:48.279
<v Speaker 1>loses by thirteen percentage points. The Democratic candidate Mikey Cheryl

0:39:48.360 --> 0:39:51.520
<v Speaker 1>got four hundred thousand more votes than Phil Murphy got

0:39:51.560 --> 0:39:55.200
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty one. Okay, that tells you a whole

0:39:55.200 --> 0:39:57.759
<v Speaker 1>bunch of Democrats who didn't bother to show up in

0:39:57.760 --> 0:40:01.440
<v Speaker 1>twenty one decided to show up in twenty five. I

0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:03.520
<v Speaker 1>don't think I had anything to do with Mikey Cheryl

0:40:04.480 --> 0:40:06.920
<v Speaker 1>in jec Cheddarelly, and everything to do with the larger

0:40:07.040 --> 0:40:11.800
<v Speaker 1>national environment. By the way, we got that result on Tuesday.

0:40:11.880 --> 0:40:14.520
<v Speaker 1>If you recall the NBC News poll that came out

0:40:14.520 --> 0:40:16.680
<v Speaker 1>two days earlier that I am a big believer of

0:40:16.719 --> 0:40:19.320
<v Speaker 1>because I trust those two pollsters. They had a generic

0:40:19.360 --> 0:40:21.279
<v Speaker 1>ballot lead for the Democrats of eight points. It was

0:40:21.320 --> 0:40:24.280
<v Speaker 1>the largest lead that Democrats had going back to twenty seventeen.

0:40:24.320 --> 0:40:27.160
<v Speaker 1>Twenty eighteen cycle another pretty good cycle for Democrats. So

0:40:28.440 --> 0:40:30.120
<v Speaker 1>I throw all that in there in that my new

0:40:30.160 --> 0:40:35.520
<v Speaker 1>top five list is skewed a bit towards the Democrats.

0:40:35.560 --> 0:40:39.279
<v Speaker 1>So number one hasn't changed. That's North Carolina. It's not

0:40:39.320 --> 0:40:41.520
<v Speaker 1>going to change. But my number two has. I had

0:40:41.560 --> 0:40:44.799
<v Speaker 1>Georgia's the second most vulnerable seat. After seeing what we

0:40:44.880 --> 0:40:47.360
<v Speaker 1>saw with those Public Service Commission races where there was

0:40:47.360 --> 0:40:51.360
<v Speaker 1>no money spent and Democrats just generically won by a lot,

0:40:51.640 --> 0:40:57.960
<v Speaker 1>you've got a growing divisive Republican primary. I highlighted an

0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:00.440
<v Speaker 1>add a couple of podcasts ago where Derek Dooley, the

0:41:00.719 --> 0:41:03.200
<v Speaker 1>son of Vince Dooley, the former football coach of the Bulldogs,

0:41:03.920 --> 0:41:06.320
<v Speaker 1>that the super pack of Brian Kemp, the sitting governor,

0:41:06.920 --> 0:41:09.920
<v Speaker 1>was running an ad that sort of lumped in the

0:41:09.920 --> 0:41:13.600
<v Speaker 1>two Republican congressmen in the primary and asof as all

0:41:13.680 --> 0:41:16.759
<v Speaker 1>responsible for the shutdown. So you now know what kind

0:41:16.760 --> 0:41:19.480
<v Speaker 1>of campaign Dooley is going to run as the outsider

0:41:19.520 --> 0:41:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the anti Washington crowd. I think it's a smart place

0:41:22.680 --> 0:41:27.200
<v Speaker 1>to position himself at this point though, if Dooley is

0:41:27.239 --> 0:41:30.719
<v Speaker 1>the nominee, I think Osof's in bigger trouble. But if

0:41:30.760 --> 0:41:33.320
<v Speaker 1>Dooley is not the nominee, and so far he's still

0:41:33.600 --> 0:41:36.960
<v Speaker 1>the third place candidate, I think Osoff is a bit

0:41:37.040 --> 0:41:40.239
<v Speaker 1>safer than I preps. Look, he's still in the top five,

0:41:40.280 --> 0:41:44.680
<v Speaker 1>but he is not number two most vulnerable. I think

0:41:44.760 --> 0:41:46.600
<v Speaker 1>now you have to put in the second most vulnerable,

0:41:46.680 --> 0:41:51.360
<v Speaker 1>Susan Collins. I do move Susan Collins up into the

0:41:51.360 --> 0:41:55.200
<v Speaker 1>second slot there. I think when you see what the

0:41:55.239 --> 0:41:58.839
<v Speaker 1>Democratic turnouts was in the Northeast in general, you see

0:41:58.880 --> 0:42:03.520
<v Speaker 1>the fact that in some ways the strength of the

0:42:03.560 --> 0:42:08.000
<v Speaker 1>oyster farmer Graham Platner, the fact that his support is

0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:12.040
<v Speaker 1>holding and it's not hurting the Democrats. The fact that

0:42:12.160 --> 0:42:15.360
<v Speaker 1>Jay Jones got through what he got through in Virginia,

0:42:15.920 --> 0:42:19.320
<v Speaker 1>I think is only going to serve to reassure Platner

0:42:19.400 --> 0:42:23.040
<v Speaker 1>on there. The anti Schumer vibe, the anti establishment vibe,

0:42:23.040 --> 0:42:25.800
<v Speaker 1>seems to be much stronger than the anti character vibe

0:42:26.200 --> 0:42:31.400
<v Speaker 1>inside the Democratic Party right now. And you know Collins

0:42:31.520 --> 0:42:33.520
<v Speaker 1>is going to be defending a bunch of status quo stuff.

0:42:34.719 --> 0:42:37.640
<v Speaker 1>It is, you know, do I think if Janet Mills

0:42:37.680 --> 0:42:40.160
<v Speaker 1>is the Democratic nominee. Collins has a better chance of winning,

0:42:40.200 --> 0:42:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I do believe it or not, but I still think

0:42:44.160 --> 0:42:46.319
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be it's going to be a hard

0:42:46.360 --> 0:42:49.799
<v Speaker 1>time being an incumbent Republican running in twenty twenty six

0:42:50.239 --> 0:42:54.239
<v Speaker 1>with this likely economy that we're staring at and the

0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:59.640
<v Speaker 1>way Donald Trump is positioning the party's brand right, And

0:42:59.680 --> 0:43:02.080
<v Speaker 1>while Susan Collins is never going to be mistaken for

0:43:02.080 --> 0:43:05.640
<v Speaker 1>a Trump Republican, she's still going to have to carry

0:43:05.640 --> 0:43:08.720
<v Speaker 1>around some of that baggage, some of that baggage on tariffs,

0:43:08.719 --> 0:43:11.560
<v Speaker 1>some of that baggage on HEALTHCA. I mean, she's probably

0:43:11.600 --> 0:43:14.319
<v Speaker 1>going to be the loan Republican, you know, one of

0:43:14.400 --> 0:43:16.319
<v Speaker 1>now she won't be the loan Republicans. She's going to

0:43:16.360 --> 0:43:18.839
<v Speaker 1>be one of the lead Republicans trying to get these

0:43:18.840 --> 0:43:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Obamacare subsidies extended, because if they do not get extended,

0:43:23.160 --> 0:43:28.160
<v Speaker 1>she's done. She's completely done. Which is why I am

0:43:28.200 --> 0:43:30.719
<v Speaker 1>bullish that you will see a one year extension at

0:43:30.719 --> 0:43:34.120
<v Speaker 1>a minimum of these Obamacare subsidies, because I think there

0:43:34.200 --> 0:43:37.880
<v Speaker 1>is no senator that would be more vulnerable to a

0:43:37.920 --> 0:43:41.160
<v Speaker 1>decision not to do that than Susan Collins. So number

0:43:41.160 --> 0:43:48.719
<v Speaker 1>one is North Carolina. Number two is main Number three,

0:43:48.800 --> 0:43:50.840
<v Speaker 1>I am going to put Georgia. I still think that

0:43:50.920 --> 0:43:53.880
<v Speaker 1>there is certainly, you know, it is it is a

0:43:54.239 --> 0:43:59.440
<v Speaker 1>even state. We've still not seen, you know, a demo

0:43:59.600 --> 0:44:02.440
<v Speaker 1>until the PS elections. We hadn't see a Democrat win

0:44:02.480 --> 0:44:07.000
<v Speaker 1>a down ballot statewide contest in Georgia going back more

0:44:07.040 --> 0:44:12.200
<v Speaker 1>than ten years. But the entire political environment in Georgia,

0:44:12.200 --> 0:44:16.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if Georgia is indeed you know, I've been vacillating.

0:44:17.080 --> 0:44:20.200
<v Speaker 1>Was Georgia and anti Trump state or is Georgia simply

0:44:20.280 --> 0:44:23.960
<v Speaker 1>a swing state that demographics have been shifting over time.

0:44:24.680 --> 0:44:27.160
<v Speaker 1>And I think there's now more and more evidence that

0:44:27.200 --> 0:44:30.600
<v Speaker 1>this is a This is a realignment in Georgia. This

0:44:30.680 --> 0:44:32.680
<v Speaker 1>is the growth of the Atlanta suburbs, this is all

0:44:32.680 --> 0:44:37.319
<v Speaker 1>of those things that this is less about. And it

0:44:37.400 --> 0:44:41.400
<v Speaker 1>may be what we're seeing in the Atlanta metro areas

0:44:41.440 --> 0:44:44.120
<v Speaker 1>what we saw in Northern Virginia that went from being

0:44:44.320 --> 0:44:48.320
<v Speaker 1>an important pocket of voters for Virginia Democrats to becoming

0:44:48.360 --> 0:44:52.080
<v Speaker 1>the most dominant feature of the state and of the

0:44:52.080 --> 0:44:54.680
<v Speaker 1>politics of the state. And I think we're starting to

0:44:54.920 --> 0:44:56.840
<v Speaker 1>starting to see more and more of that in Georgia,

0:44:56.920 --> 0:45:00.200
<v Speaker 1>but I'm still going to put it. I'm still going

0:45:00.239 --> 0:45:03.000
<v Speaker 1>to put it right now in the third slot because

0:45:06.760 --> 0:45:10.360
<v Speaker 1>because of the fact that this time Osoff isn't going

0:45:10.400 --> 0:45:13.960
<v Speaker 1>to have be running with Rafael Warnock or a presidential campaign, right,

0:45:14.160 --> 0:45:18.359
<v Speaker 1>he's got to do this entire turnout operation on his

0:45:18.840 --> 0:45:22.719
<v Speaker 1>on his own there, So North Carolina one Main three,

0:45:22.880 --> 0:45:27.319
<v Speaker 1>Georgia Main two, Georgia three, number four on the less,

0:45:27.320 --> 0:45:30.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna put Michigan, so it drops down a slot

0:45:30.800 --> 0:45:37.719
<v Speaker 1>because I've jumped started Maine there. And look, I do

0:45:37.840 --> 0:45:40.759
<v Speaker 1>think Mike Rogers is he went down a weird road.

0:45:40.840 --> 0:45:44.359
<v Speaker 1>He decided to claim that somehow the twenty twenty four

0:45:44.440 --> 0:45:48.720
<v Speaker 1>election was rigged, that it or he's implying he's opening

0:45:48.760 --> 0:45:51.239
<v Speaker 1>the door to some conspiracy theories as to why he

0:45:51.320 --> 0:45:55.399
<v Speaker 1>lost in twenty twenty four. Boy, that's a long way

0:45:55.440 --> 0:45:57.960
<v Speaker 1>away from the Mike Rogers I first started covering when

0:45:57.960 --> 0:46:01.960
<v Speaker 1>he was in Congress. It's going to come as a surprise,

0:46:03.280 --> 0:46:05.880
<v Speaker 1>given that he doesn't really have any serious primary opposition.

0:46:05.920 --> 0:46:08.480
<v Speaker 1>The fact that he's going down this sort of Trump

0:46:08.520 --> 0:46:11.480
<v Speaker 1>grievance road on his twenty four election is a bit

0:46:11.520 --> 0:46:14.759
<v Speaker 1>of a head scratcher doesn't seem as if he needs

0:46:14.760 --> 0:46:18.359
<v Speaker 1>to be catering to that primary voter that enthusiastically. So

0:46:18.440 --> 0:46:21.000
<v Speaker 1>perhaps he really believes this, Perhaps he's going down this

0:46:21.080 --> 0:46:25.040
<v Speaker 1>rabbit hole. I don't think that's good politics for him,

0:46:25.760 --> 0:46:29.759
<v Speaker 1>but you know, he's still The reason I still give

0:46:29.880 --> 0:46:33.000
<v Speaker 1>him and why I think Michigan could be very competitive

0:46:33.040 --> 0:46:36.400
<v Speaker 1>is We're going to have a very messy Democratic primary.

0:46:37.080 --> 0:46:39.360
<v Speaker 1>Who knows who gets elected. Is that the super progressive

0:46:39.400 --> 0:46:44.840
<v Speaker 1>that gets elected is that the outsider, and lsied is

0:46:44.840 --> 0:46:48.239
<v Speaker 1>the progressive. McMorrow is the sort of outsider. Stevens is

0:46:48.280 --> 0:46:53.239
<v Speaker 1>the establishment candidate. They've all scrambled to be anti Schumer now,

0:46:53.239 --> 0:46:57.080
<v Speaker 1>even Stevens on that front. So that primary could get messy,

0:46:57.160 --> 0:47:00.800
<v Speaker 1>and it's an August primary, and it means that rogers

0:47:00.840 --> 0:47:04.160
<v Speaker 1>Is should be in a strong position. But I am

0:47:04.840 --> 0:47:07.160
<v Speaker 1>I do think that's a loser to go down the

0:47:07.200 --> 0:47:10.440
<v Speaker 1>conspiracy road in a swing state like Michigan. And then

0:47:10.440 --> 0:47:12.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm putting a new seat at number five. I had

0:47:12.560 --> 0:47:14.600
<v Speaker 1>New Hampshire in the top five before. No longer am

0:47:14.600 --> 0:47:16.720
<v Speaker 1>I putting New Hampshire there because I think the political

0:47:16.840 --> 0:47:20.680
<v Speaker 1>environment indicates that it's more likely another Republican health seat

0:47:20.760 --> 0:47:23.200
<v Speaker 1>is going to fall before a Democratic health seat. And look,

0:47:23.239 --> 0:47:25.440
<v Speaker 1>I think Johnson new is a much stronger candidate that

0:47:25.520 --> 0:47:29.960
<v Speaker 1>Scott Brown potentially in an open seat. But if the

0:47:30.040 --> 0:47:34.279
<v Speaker 1>wind is blowing left, New Hampshire goes with the wind right,

0:47:34.680 --> 0:47:36.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, you can still get elected as a Republican

0:47:36.640 --> 0:47:38.279
<v Speaker 1>in New Hampshire, which it needs to be in a

0:47:38.719 --> 0:47:42.399
<v Speaker 1>either even or good Republican year. I don't know if

0:47:42.400 --> 0:47:44.880
<v Speaker 1>this is a winnable race for any Republican Chris or

0:47:44.960 --> 0:47:48.120
<v Speaker 1>Johnson unhu. If the wind is blowing as strongly for

0:47:48.239 --> 0:47:51.520
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats in twenty six as it was blowing for

0:47:51.560 --> 0:47:55.120
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats in New Jersey and in Virginia in twenty five,

0:47:55.400 --> 0:48:01.239
<v Speaker 1>I can just tell you thatw it the odds are,

0:48:01.480 --> 0:48:05.720
<v Speaker 1>it's going to look more more like a blue state

0:48:06.880 --> 0:48:09.680
<v Speaker 1>in an environment like this than it will a swing state.

0:48:10.120 --> 0:48:13.840
<v Speaker 1>So my new number five is Shared Brown and Ohio.

0:48:14.600 --> 0:48:18.239
<v Speaker 1>John Houston is the appointed elected senator there. He's been

0:48:18.239 --> 0:48:21.120
<v Speaker 1>doing quite well in some of his union endorsements and

0:48:21.239 --> 0:48:24.399
<v Speaker 1>getting a few union endorsements at Shared Brown, and when

0:48:24.400 --> 0:48:29.440
<v Speaker 1>he was an incumbent senator would get. But if you

0:48:29.680 --> 0:48:32.920
<v Speaker 1>just shift, if you believe the electorate in general is

0:48:32.960 --> 0:48:34.839
<v Speaker 1>just going to be five points better across the board

0:48:34.840 --> 0:48:38.359
<v Speaker 1>for Democrats, like it was in Virginia. That basically makes

0:48:38.360 --> 0:48:42.160
<v Speaker 1>Ohio a coin flip. And what we learned about Shared

0:48:42.200 --> 0:48:45.040
<v Speaker 1>Brown in twenty four is he can run three to

0:48:45.120 --> 0:48:49.480
<v Speaker 1>five points ahead of the Democratic of the generic Democratic number.

0:48:50.000 --> 0:48:52.880
<v Speaker 1>He can't run eight or nine points ahead of a

0:48:52.920 --> 0:48:57.799
<v Speaker 1>Democratic presidential candidate. He's running in a midterm year. He

0:48:57.840 --> 0:49:00.200
<v Speaker 1>has had more success running in midterm years and he

0:49:00.239 --> 0:49:04.520
<v Speaker 1>has in presidential years. And he did win once in

0:49:04.560 --> 0:49:07.440
<v Speaker 1>a presidential year in twenty twelve, but he had that

0:49:07.840 --> 0:49:10.000
<v Speaker 1>Obama had a lot of wind at his back, and

0:49:10.040 --> 0:49:12.920
<v Speaker 1>that was quite helpful to him. In twenty eighteen, he

0:49:12.960 --> 0:49:17.799
<v Speaker 1>was able to win in a Trump year thanks to

0:49:19.360 --> 0:49:23.759
<v Speaker 1>a combination of a week Republican opponent, but also just

0:49:23.920 --> 0:49:27.400
<v Speaker 1>again it was a good Democratic year. So at this

0:49:27.560 --> 0:49:30.080
<v Speaker 1>point I put Ohio there. And this means three of

0:49:30.120 --> 0:49:33.960
<v Speaker 1>the five in my five most vulnerable are Republican held seats.

0:49:34.560 --> 0:49:38.160
<v Speaker 1>So if Democrats sweep the five hold for Georgian Michigan

0:49:38.440 --> 0:49:41.480
<v Speaker 1>and flip North Carolina, Maine in New Hampshire, they are

0:49:41.520 --> 0:49:44.319
<v Speaker 1>only one seat away from the majority. That's where this

0:49:44.360 --> 0:49:47.320
<v Speaker 1>top five list sits right now. That's this is why

0:49:47.640 --> 0:49:51.360
<v Speaker 1>if you want to mess around on the political betting markets,

0:49:53.680 --> 0:49:55.480
<v Speaker 1>one of the best early bets to make right now

0:49:55.480 --> 0:49:57.719
<v Speaker 1>because it's a sheriff stock, and then you could sell

0:49:57.719 --> 0:50:01.719
<v Speaker 1>that share before the results actually happen. Because if Democrats

0:50:01.960 --> 0:50:05.000
<v Speaker 1>succeed in good candidate recruits in Alaska, a good candidate

0:50:05.080 --> 0:50:09.360
<v Speaker 1>in Kansas, you may see them get six or seven

0:50:09.400 --> 0:50:12.560
<v Speaker 1>Republican held seats in the competitive category. Will they win

0:50:12.600 --> 0:50:18.040
<v Speaker 1>them all? No, But if they can put Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska,

0:50:18.120 --> 0:50:21.120
<v Speaker 1>they can put three of those five in play. In

0:50:21.160 --> 0:50:23.560
<v Speaker 1>addition to the three that I think they already now

0:50:23.600 --> 0:50:27.240
<v Speaker 1>have a either even or slightly better chance at flipping,

0:50:29.520 --> 0:50:33.879
<v Speaker 1>you suddenly have a path to the Senate majority. There

0:50:33.880 --> 0:50:39.440
<v Speaker 1>you go. The top five list this week North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan,

0:50:39.719 --> 0:50:43.560
<v Speaker 1>Ohio the five Senate states most likely to flip this month.

0:50:44.239 --> 0:50:49.919
<v Speaker 1>As far as the Chuck Podcast is concerned, having good

0:50:49.960 --> 0:50:54.040
<v Speaker 1>life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience.

0:50:54.239 --> 0:50:56.560
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0:50:56.560 --> 0:50:59.600
<v Speaker 1>have any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.

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<v Speaker 1>Other single mother now widow, myself sixteen, trying to figure

0:51:04.280 --> 0:51:06.239
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<v Speaker 1>lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy

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<v Speaker 1>should really think about it, especially if you've got a

0:52:28.040 --> 0:52:33.320
<v Speaker 1>growing family. All right, let's take a couple more questions

0:52:33.440 --> 0:52:39.520
<v Speaker 1>ask Chuck. None of these will be shut down related.

0:52:40.320 --> 0:52:43.800
<v Speaker 1>This one comes from a third generation Navy vet, John B.

0:52:44.080 --> 0:52:46.360
<v Speaker 1>From Saint Louis, and he writes, Hey, thanks for responding

0:52:46.360 --> 0:52:48.360
<v Speaker 1>to my question about the atomic bowl. All right, so

0:52:48.400 --> 0:52:51.239
<v Speaker 1>it's a not a first time long time, but at

0:52:51.320 --> 0:52:53.480
<v Speaker 1>least a second time long time. I'm a World War

0:52:53.480 --> 0:52:55.040
<v Speaker 1>Two and Cold War history buff, and I think it's

0:52:55.040 --> 0:52:57.719
<v Speaker 1>crucial to keep conversations about those times alive in our

0:52:57.719 --> 0:52:59.800
<v Speaker 1>modern discourse. We live in the shadow of those events.

0:53:00.000 --> 0:53:02.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering how America might have been different during the

0:53:02.360 --> 0:53:04.200
<v Speaker 1>past fifty years if we had not ended the draft

0:53:04.239 --> 0:53:06.240
<v Speaker 1>falling Vietnam. I think we could expand that to include

0:53:06.320 --> 0:53:10.120
<v Speaker 1>national service in general. Thoughts, John, you are scratching an

0:53:10.160 --> 0:53:13.719
<v Speaker 1>itch that I'm constantly dealing with I think, you know,

0:53:14.320 --> 0:53:19.200
<v Speaker 1>I think not having national service. I think national service

0:53:19.640 --> 0:53:26.960
<v Speaker 1>could be a huge advancement of trying to depolarize America, right, geting,

0:53:28.160 --> 0:53:32.839
<v Speaker 1>getting people, getting American citizens to believe that they have

0:53:32.920 --> 0:53:37.440
<v Speaker 1>to that part of your citizenship is to give a

0:53:37.440 --> 0:53:40.000
<v Speaker 1>little bit to this country and service. And it doesn't

0:53:40.040 --> 0:53:41.560
<v Speaker 1>have to be in the military. It can be a

0:53:41.640 --> 0:53:44.120
<v Speaker 1>variety of ways you can you can give. It could

0:53:44.160 --> 0:53:46.680
<v Speaker 1>be working, you know, in home health care for an

0:53:46.680 --> 0:53:49.920
<v Speaker 1>elderly parent without a close knit family. It could be

0:53:50.320 --> 0:53:54.319
<v Speaker 1>cleaning up rivers and streams. It could be teaching in

0:53:54.640 --> 0:53:59.520
<v Speaker 1>underserved communities that need more school teachers. It could simply

0:53:59.520 --> 0:54:03.040
<v Speaker 1>be two to ring, or it could be military service.

0:54:03.400 --> 0:54:06.520
<v Speaker 1>I think anything. It's why I think that in general,

0:54:06.719 --> 0:54:09.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, I'm speaking on Veterans Day here. In general,

0:54:09.440 --> 0:54:12.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm a big advocate of bringing as many veterans as

0:54:12.239 --> 0:54:15.560
<v Speaker 1>you can into the into the workforce, into any sort

0:54:15.600 --> 0:54:20.399
<v Speaker 1>of culture, because most military veterans, the experience of being

0:54:20.400 --> 0:54:24.120
<v Speaker 1>in the military exposed them to people that grew up

0:54:24.120 --> 0:54:28.080
<v Speaker 1>differently than them, people that worshiped different faiths than they did,

0:54:28.760 --> 0:54:31.120
<v Speaker 1>but they all learned how to have a common mission

0:54:31.120 --> 0:54:33.440
<v Speaker 1>and buy in some ways wearing the same uniform. They

0:54:33.480 --> 0:54:37.200
<v Speaker 1>realize when you wear the same uniform, you bleed the

0:54:37.200 --> 0:54:41.600
<v Speaker 1>same red blood. That hey, they're really the differences really

0:54:41.840 --> 0:54:46.399
<v Speaker 1>are all surface. They're not they're not very deep at all.

0:54:46.480 --> 0:54:50.040
<v Speaker 1>So not to sort of try to like, you know,

0:54:50.360 --> 0:54:55.319
<v Speaker 1>but for the good old days kind of mindset. I'm

0:54:55.360 --> 0:54:57.759
<v Speaker 1>a I'm a huge advocate of National service, and I

0:54:57.760 --> 0:55:02.200
<v Speaker 1>think it could be a again, you know, you know,

0:55:02.200 --> 0:55:03.960
<v Speaker 1>whether it's a way to pay for college. There's all

0:55:03.960 --> 0:55:07.040
<v Speaker 1>sorts of ways that you create sort of for every

0:55:07.120 --> 0:55:09.160
<v Speaker 1>year of national you know, maybe everybody has to do one,

0:55:09.200 --> 0:55:11.080
<v Speaker 1>and every extra year you give you get that much

0:55:11.120 --> 0:55:13.759
<v Speaker 1>more off of your tuition. But I think there's a

0:55:13.760 --> 0:55:15.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of ways, you know, or to trade school, whatever

0:55:15.719 --> 0:55:18.440
<v Speaker 1>you wanted to do it. Anything that we could do

0:55:18.560 --> 0:55:22.200
<v Speaker 1>to sort of get Americans from different walks of life

0:55:22.239 --> 0:55:25.080
<v Speaker 1>to have to have to give back for a period

0:55:25.080 --> 0:55:30.319
<v Speaker 1>of time only strengthens the fabric of this country. So

0:55:30.560 --> 0:55:34.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm a huge advocate, all right. Next question comes from

0:55:34.120 --> 0:55:36.359
<v Speaker 1>Chase little rock hocketsas and response to your question about

0:55:36.360 --> 0:55:38.400
<v Speaker 1>staying on the thirteenth floor in game day. If a

0:55:38.400 --> 0:55:41.040
<v Speaker 1>black cat crossed my path while I walked under a ladder,

0:55:41.080 --> 0:55:42.960
<v Speaker 1>on the way out of my thirteenth floor hotel room

0:55:43.120 --> 0:55:45.319
<v Speaker 1>in Fayetteville. I wouldn't have bat it an eye. This

0:55:45.440 --> 0:55:47.600
<v Speaker 1>razorback football season has already used up every ounce of

0:55:47.680 --> 0:55:50.160
<v Speaker 1>luck in the entire state. Bobby Petrino's come back to

0:55:50.239 --> 0:55:52.799
<v Speaker 1>or hit all the wrong notes, and honestly, Fayeville needs

0:55:52.840 --> 0:55:55.240
<v Speaker 1>a total do over, new coach, new schemes. I knew everything.

0:55:55.520 --> 0:55:57.560
<v Speaker 1>So at the college football job market heating up, which

0:55:57.560 --> 0:55:59.719
<v Speaker 1>openings do you think are the most tempting and who's

0:55:59.760 --> 0:56:05.919
<v Speaker 1>got the chops or luck to fill them? Go hogs eventually? Well, look,

0:56:08.160 --> 0:56:11.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, Florida is always the the It's one of

0:56:11.680 --> 0:56:13.640
<v Speaker 1>those that you think it should be a bigger power

0:56:13.640 --> 0:56:16.320
<v Speaker 1>than it is. Irony is that the history of Florida

0:56:16.360 --> 0:56:20.919
<v Speaker 1>football is actually quite mediocre. Right. They've really only had

0:56:21.200 --> 0:56:25.279
<v Speaker 1>two brief periods of success, one with Steve Spurrier, one

0:56:25.320 --> 0:56:27.680
<v Speaker 1>with Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow which really probably have

0:56:27.719 --> 0:56:31.400
<v Speaker 1>to talk more to Tim Tebow than urban Meyer, and

0:56:31.680 --> 0:56:35.440
<v Speaker 1>they've been mediocre report and every other you know, at

0:56:35.640 --> 0:56:41.520
<v Speaker 1>any other period. In theory, it should be a great

0:56:41.640 --> 0:56:43.640
<v Speaker 1>job to have. In theory, it should be a place

0:56:43.680 --> 0:56:47.160
<v Speaker 1>that you could become a powerhouse. It seems to be

0:56:47.200 --> 0:56:50.640
<v Speaker 1>a cesspool of micromanagers. Right. It's kind of like you

0:56:50.680 --> 0:56:52.919
<v Speaker 1>know what Auburn is. It's like, you know, it has

0:56:52.960 --> 0:56:56.040
<v Speaker 1>all the ingredients, but it's impossible to succeed because the

0:56:56.080 --> 0:56:58.600
<v Speaker 1>boosters are always going to get in your way. It

0:56:59.320 --> 0:57:02.360
<v Speaker 1>just trusts me from experienced mind me so on paper,

0:57:02.400 --> 0:57:05.960
<v Speaker 1>it's Florida, but you know, I'm a huge I think

0:57:06.160 --> 0:57:08.840
<v Speaker 1>Arkansas is a hidden I think Faetteville is a is

0:57:08.880 --> 0:57:12.239
<v Speaker 1>a is a hidden gem in the South. I think

0:57:12.280 --> 0:57:15.560
<v Speaker 1>it's one of the it's you know, it's it's going

0:57:15.640 --> 0:57:18.280
<v Speaker 1>to be the next Austin or Nashville. I think it's

0:57:18.320 --> 0:57:22.000
<v Speaker 1>a great place to live. I think that somebody's going

0:57:22.080 --> 0:57:24.600
<v Speaker 1>to crack that code. And when you have Tyson Chicken

0:57:24.640 --> 0:57:30.120
<v Speaker 1>money and Walmart money, the the you know, if the

0:57:30.480 --> 0:57:35.280
<v Speaker 1>if the university athletic program will invest in football, Arkansas

0:57:35.280 --> 0:57:37.600
<v Speaker 1>could be a great job. It is not clear they

0:57:37.640 --> 0:57:39.320
<v Speaker 1>want to invest in football as much as they do

0:57:39.400 --> 0:57:42.360
<v Speaker 1>basketball and baseball. That seems to be the be the

0:57:42.360 --> 0:57:47.480
<v Speaker 1>biggest problem there. I do think the Penn State job

0:57:47.560 --> 0:57:51.120
<v Speaker 1>is actually quite appealing to because there's such a loyal

0:57:51.160 --> 0:57:55.040
<v Speaker 1>fan base. You I actually think even though Franklin you know,

0:57:55.080 --> 0:57:58.640
<v Speaker 1>think about how long he survived without succeeding at the

0:57:58.720 --> 0:58:01.640
<v Speaker 1>tippy tippy top, which means fan base has actually a

0:58:01.640 --> 0:58:05.280
<v Speaker 1>lot more patience than it gets credit for. So that

0:58:05.320 --> 0:58:08.080
<v Speaker 1>would be a good one that I think you could

0:58:08.080 --> 0:58:14.800
<v Speaker 1>see quick success at and sustained success that and be

0:58:14.880 --> 0:58:18.080
<v Speaker 1>in a community that would be pretty comforting. I mean

0:58:18.400 --> 0:58:21.640
<v Speaker 1>you could turn you could definitely turn Happy Valley into

0:58:21.680 --> 0:58:25.040
<v Speaker 1>Tuscaloosa and have a Nick Saban like run there. And

0:58:25.040 --> 0:58:26.680
<v Speaker 1>that's probably the way I look at it. Where could

0:58:26.680 --> 0:58:28.480
<v Speaker 1>you have a Nick Saban like run where you might

0:58:28.520 --> 0:58:30.960
<v Speaker 1>go a decade and just be so dominant. I think

0:58:31.000 --> 0:58:34.680
<v Speaker 1>fills a place to do that. Think I think a

0:58:34.760 --> 0:58:36.960
<v Speaker 1>Happy Valley is a place to do that. I'm less

0:58:37.000 --> 0:58:41.640
<v Speaker 1>convinced you can do that in Gainesville, and I don't

0:58:41.840 --> 0:58:44.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think history shows you it's pretty difficult

0:58:44.400 --> 0:58:47.400
<v Speaker 1>to do. And I don't know if Virginia Tech can

0:58:47.440 --> 0:58:50.160
<v Speaker 1>be on that highest level right now. I don't know

0:58:50.200 --> 0:58:55.720
<v Speaker 1>if they have the financial backing to do that on

0:58:55.760 --> 0:58:59.160
<v Speaker 1>that front. All right, I'm gonna take one more question here.

0:59:00.840 --> 0:59:04.160
<v Speaker 1>This comes from john S and Millie Waukee. Of course,

0:59:04.200 --> 0:59:08.479
<v Speaker 1>everything I've learned about socialist mayors came from Wayne's World

0:59:08.520 --> 0:59:12.800
<v Speaker 1>the movie and Alice Cooper. But I digress. Diehard listener here,

0:59:12.840 --> 0:59:15.480
<v Speaker 1>just finish your podcast with rich Tawe. Fascinating. You answered

0:59:15.520 --> 0:59:19.200
<v Speaker 1>my past question about voters in Ozaki and Sheboygan County's

0:59:19.280 --> 0:59:21.720
<v Speaker 1>voting anti woman richest focus group confirmed my hunch some

0:59:21.800 --> 0:59:25.200
<v Speaker 1>voters dislike Trump, but voter form anyway likely because of Harris.

0:59:25.400 --> 0:59:27.040
<v Speaker 1>Have your thoughts on this changed at all, even if

0:59:27.080 --> 0:59:30.640
<v Speaker 1>the polling doesn't pick it up. Look, I think it's

0:59:30.680 --> 0:59:37.760
<v Speaker 1>pretty clear there was a group of voters that, you know,

0:59:37.800 --> 0:59:40.840
<v Speaker 1>that Harris couldn't appeal to. That I guess what you're

0:59:41.080 --> 0:59:45.560
<v Speaker 1>you know the better the question is that Joe Biden

0:59:45.720 --> 0:59:51.840
<v Speaker 1>did appeal to in twenty twenty. Yes, but I also

0:59:51.920 --> 0:59:56.040
<v Speaker 1>think it's pretty clear. You know, I think it's a

0:59:56.080 --> 1:00:00.200
<v Speaker 1>fair question about about whether it is heart. You know,

1:00:00.240 --> 1:00:03.200
<v Speaker 1>I think I think race is less of an issue.

1:00:03.200 --> 1:00:10.240
<v Speaker 1>I think gender was more of an issue. But it's

1:00:10.320 --> 1:00:15.600
<v Speaker 1>hard to disaggregate it because you had a poor economic environment.

1:00:15.640 --> 1:00:20.160
<v Speaker 1>She was defending the history of sitting vice presidents trying

1:00:20.160 --> 1:00:25.960
<v Speaker 1>to succeed unpopular presidents is pretty stark, right. You know,

1:00:26.720 --> 1:00:32.000
<v Speaker 1>Hubert Humphrey couldn't win with LBJ. But he came awfully close,

1:00:32.200 --> 1:00:35.640
<v Speaker 1>and neither could she. So it is I think it's

1:00:35.720 --> 1:00:39.919
<v Speaker 1>hard to find isolate the specific voter itself. You hear

1:00:39.960 --> 1:00:45.960
<v Speaker 1>it in there, but you'd have a better argument if

1:00:45.960 --> 1:00:49.800
<v Speaker 1>she lost with a better economic record. And I think

1:00:49.840 --> 1:00:53.560
<v Speaker 1>that that's, you know, it is. I still think there's

1:00:53.600 --> 1:00:55.600
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of choose your own adventure on this

1:00:55.800 --> 1:00:58.960
<v Speaker 1>that you can. You certainly hear it in there, and

1:00:59.040 --> 1:01:01.000
<v Speaker 1>you certainly hear it in the focus groups, and Rich

1:01:01.040 --> 1:01:07.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of described it. It is a hurdle, but I

1:01:07.600 --> 1:01:14.360
<v Speaker 1>don't think it's a brick wall. And but it becomes

1:01:14.360 --> 1:01:18.280
<v Speaker 1>a brick wall if you know, there's like this massive

1:01:18.280 --> 1:01:20.760
<v Speaker 1>economic downturn, right if if a whole bunch of other

1:01:20.800 --> 1:01:23.320
<v Speaker 1>stuff are going, it's sort of it is a factor,

1:01:23.400 --> 1:01:29.800
<v Speaker 1>not the factor on this front. So I think that that.

1:01:29.960 --> 1:01:35.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if we were seeing women struggle to win

1:01:35.280 --> 1:01:41.120
<v Speaker 1>governorships in these swing states, I'd be I would be

1:01:41.200 --> 1:01:44.440
<v Speaker 1>more persuaded. But you know, we look a look at

1:01:44.480 --> 1:01:50.280
<v Speaker 1>the state of Michigan. It's elected, you know, to two

1:01:50.360 --> 1:01:54.800
<v Speaker 1>term women governors in the last twenty years, in Jennifer

1:01:54.840 --> 1:01:59.040
<v Speaker 1>Granholme and Gretchen Wetmer, but they didn't support Kamala Harris

1:01:59.160 --> 1:02:05.120
<v Speaker 1>was that, you know, so I think that that it.

1:02:05.440 --> 1:02:09.360
<v Speaker 1>I think you can't dismiss it as a factor, but

1:02:09.480 --> 1:02:11.360
<v Speaker 1>I will. I am still going to dismiss it as

1:02:11.400 --> 1:02:15.000
<v Speaker 1>the factor, if that's fair, all right. So I'm going

1:02:15.040 --> 1:02:17.760
<v Speaker 1>to leave that there because guess what. I'll be back

1:02:17.800 --> 1:02:19.680
<v Speaker 1>in twenty four hours with another episode of the Check

1:02:19.680 --> 1:02:21.439
<v Speaker 1>podcast until we upload again.