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Speaker 1: That's get sold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty

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Speaker 1: percent off. Hello there, Happy Wednesday, Welcome to another episode

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Speaker 1: of the Chuck Toodcast. They'd be probably the best way

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Speaker 1: to understand the initial reaction by those that are running

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Speaker 1: for office, those that are running in Democratic primaries, those

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Speaker 1: that want to be leaders within the Democratic Party versus

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Speaker 1: and why they have reacted the way they've reacted. Right.

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Speaker 1: You use in some ways you are what's your electorate?

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Speaker 1: You know, you tell me you're electorate, and no, I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you your position on this shutdown. Right, And if

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Speaker 1: you're electorate, if it's an electorate where you're more worried

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Speaker 1: about the general the swing voter, you were probably on

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Speaker 1: the side of figuring out how to do a pause

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Speaker 1: in the shutdown. And if you were somebody who's got

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Speaker 1: to worry more about a primary voter, then you were

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Speaker 1: going to be emphatic against cutting this deal. And I

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Speaker 1: think the reaction is a reminder that this was not

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Speaker 1: about healthcare right. This was about taking on, finally confronting

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Speaker 1: Trump on something right. And the party Democratic Party hadn't

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Speaker 1: done any decent confrontation really. A few governors had in

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Speaker 1: trying to fight back on national Guard efforts and things

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Speaker 1: like that, but there hadn't been a real showdown between

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Speaker 1: the party and Trump, and the shutdown provided that. And politically,

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Speaker 1: in the last forty days, it energized the base of

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Speaker 1: the Democratic Party and they felt good about that energy,

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Speaker 1: and it because the elections went well last week, it

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Speaker 1: could it seemed to provide the confirmation you know, a

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Speaker 1: sort of form of confirmation bias. Hey, this shutdown seems

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Speaker 1: to be working. Look at how well our candidates did.

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Speaker 1: Why give up this idea now when at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, you know, you know, things can turn

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Speaker 1: quickly if you're not careful. And already some pulling is

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Speaker 1: surfaced about how as this shutdown was impacting more and

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Speaker 1: more Americans, blame was starting to get shared more and

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Speaker 1: more between both parties. Yes, Republicans were taking the runt

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Speaker 1: of the blame yes, Mike Johnson and Donald Trump were

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Speaker 1: actually making it easier for Democrats to politically when the

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Speaker 1: shutdown by their own maneuvers and their own decision making there.

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Speaker 1: But ultimately, as I've stated in a few other places

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Speaker 1: that I've spoken in the last forty eight hours, there

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Speaker 1: is a large chunk of voters in the middle who

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Speaker 1: don't pay attention to day to day massinations, but that

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Speaker 1: will pay attention when the proverbial government toilet is clogged,

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Speaker 1: you know, and not being able to travel around Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: at a time when we have almost no choice but

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Speaker 1: to use their airplanes in order to get where we

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Speaker 1: want to get in a short weekend was a way

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Speaker 1: that you were suddenly going to start impacting people that

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Speaker 1: don't normally pay attention to the day to day machinations,

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Speaker 1: and that actually can become long term more politically damaging

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Speaker 1: than anything you think is going for you in the

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Speaker 1: short term. So that's my basic way to explain the

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Speaker 1: situation we're in. Now. What's funny here is leave it

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Speaker 1: to the Democrats that come across. As you know, they're

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Speaker 1: essentially divided over tactics. They're not divided over any issue.

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Speaker 1: They all believe in this healthcare issue. They all believe

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Speaker 1: Trump needs to be confronted. They all believe they've got

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Speaker 1: to shift their messaging to cost of living issues. Right,

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Speaker 1: So this is a party that is fighting over tactics.

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Speaker 1: You know, do they have the right leaders? They probably don't.

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Speaker 1: Just changing leaders change the debate on tactics. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it really does, but I will say this,

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Speaker 1: once you have lost the trust of the people you're

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Speaker 1: trying to lead, you probably ought to leave, right, you know.

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Speaker 1: And and the best thing for the party would be

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Speaker 1: if Chuck Schumer went out on his own, not forcing

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Speaker 1: more groups to come out calling for his resignation and

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Speaker 1: all this stuff. But ultimately, I don't know if it changes.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're still going to have a leader that's

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Speaker 1: got to be thinking about, Hey, there's the base wants

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Speaker 1: one thing, but you still got to appeal to swing

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Speaker 1: voters if you actually want to win enough seats to

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Speaker 1: actually be in charge of governing something. So I think

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Speaker 1: that tension would exist whether it was Schumer, whether Brian

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Speaker 1: Schatz is there, whether it's Chris Murphy, whether it's Amy Klobashar,

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Speaker 1: whether it's Patty Murray. Right, we could come up you know,

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Speaker 1: and I think if you know, this is one of

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Speaker 1: those moments where if Schumer just decided in the next

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Speaker 1: week to sort of, you know what, all right, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not wanted here, I'll take a step back. My

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Speaker 1: gut is Patty Murray would replace him because she'd be

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Speaker 1: seen as a quote unquote caretaker majority leader. She's at

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Speaker 1: this point the senior most member of the Democratic Senate

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Speaker 1: and nobody would cross her right and she really has

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Speaker 1: the respect of sort of all wings of the party.

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Speaker 1: I think she'd be seeing the original mom and tennis shoes,

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Speaker 1: you know, as she ran as a sort of a

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Speaker 1: populist candidate of her day in nineteen ninety two when

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Speaker 1: she first came on the national scene. I think she

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Speaker 1: would be seen as somebody that would would be less

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Speaker 1: of a public face for the party. And in some

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Speaker 1: ways I think many Senators wouldn't mind that and would

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Speaker 1: likely embrace that. But let's be realistic. You may not

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Speaker 1: see any change in the short term. To me. You know,

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Speaker 1: while it's easy to cover this tactical split inside the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party because it's sort of easy to do, it's

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Speaker 1: easy to create a cable news segment on it. It's

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Speaker 1: easy to find people to criticize, you know, it's sort

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Speaker 1: of an easy debate to have. It's not really that

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Speaker 1: big of a divide because it's not over some sort

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Speaker 1: of fundamental ideology ideological disagreement, you know, where for instance,

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Speaker 1: like things with Mom Donnie, those are fundamental ideological disagreements

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Speaker 1: about you know, how involved government should be in the economy.

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Speaker 1: That's that's a larger divide that I think doesn't really

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Speaker 1: get dealt with in the Democratic Party until the presidential

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Speaker 1: primaries take shape. But I tell you, even as everybody's

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Speaker 1: focused on the dem divide here, don't take your eye

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Speaker 1: off the ball of a growing Republican divide. I think

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Speaker 1: that is coming. I think that right now, if you're

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Speaker 1: a Republican elected official in Congress, you should You're trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out what do I do when the leader

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Speaker 1: of the party is not accepting reality. And Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: inability to accept the reality that this economy sucks for

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Speaker 1: a lot of his supporters is going to cause a

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Speaker 1: much bigger problem for the Publican Party than anything the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party is going through at the moment, because ultimately,

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Speaker 1: because they're in the minority and because they're in the opposition,

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean, they're going to have a unity

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Speaker 1: of message, They're going to have a unity of focus.

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Speaker 1: They may disagree on how to deal with Trump in

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Speaker 1: the moment, but they're not going to disagree on how

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Speaker 1: to court the voters in twenty twenty six. That's a

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Speaker 1: divide that I think that is not the case on

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Speaker 1: the Republican side of the aisle. As this economy weakens

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Speaker 1: for those without money and essentially with those about real savings.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we're seeing here right This is a

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Speaker 1: this is the very definition of a trickle down economy

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Speaker 1: where Donald Trump is hoping that the bang, the stock

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Speaker 1: market success is going to somehow trickle down and help

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Speaker 1: everybody else. There's not a lot of evidence that that

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Speaker 1: ever works. You can just go back one hundred years

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Speaker 1: and see how that worked out. The last time we

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Speaker 1: sort of tried to put together an economy where government

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Speaker 1: and big business fused itself together like it did in

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Speaker 1: the in the early parts of the industrial and the

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Speaker 1: industrial age. That didn't end well. We got a great

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Speaker 1: depression and then finally government decided, the people decided, hey,

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Speaker 1: they wanted government, they wanted more guard rails on big business,

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Speaker 1: more guardrails on the economy than what we had at

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Speaker 1: the time, and I have a feeling we're going to

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Speaker 1: end up in a similar situation where we're going to

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Speaker 1: have a downturn caused by what we're seeing, this fusion

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Speaker 1: of big tech and government, and that is going to

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Speaker 1: awake awoke in a bunch of people who are going

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Speaker 1: to want more guardrails put on our economy, necessarily leaving capitalism,

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Speaker 1: but something more akin to what the two Roosevelts fought for,

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Speaker 1: both Teddy and Franklin in their in their very different ways.

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Speaker 1: But I did get a lot of questions on the shutdown,

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Speaker 1: so I decided that before we get to the interview

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Speaker 1: that I would answer all the shutdown related q and

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Speaker 1: as in this part of the podcast, we'll have our

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Speaker 1: individual will it then I'll do my top five list

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Speaker 1: this week. It's where the top five Senate seats most

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Speaker 1: likely to flip. It's let's just say the top five

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Speaker 1: has changed. Just like in college football, what the top

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Speaker 1: five was at the beginning of October is a lot

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Speaker 1: different than what the top five is at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of November. So goes my list of top five most

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Speaker 1: likely most vulnerable Senate seats in twenty twenty six. But

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Speaker 1: before we get to all that, and I'll do some

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Speaker 1: q and as on other topics that were not shutdown related.

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Speaker 1: So we'll begin with this. This comes from Tim, and

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Speaker 1: he asks, I don't understand why the Democrats are being

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Speaker 1: blamed for the shutdown. If the Speaker will not convene

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Speaker 1: the House, how can the Dems vote against it? Also,

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Speaker 1: if the Republicans control the House, why can't they just

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Speaker 1: vote to pass it? I think too many times that reporter.

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Speaker 1: Too many times reporters assume that people know the cause

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Speaker 1: of the most basic facts about an issue, or maybe

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Speaker 1: this was reported the beginning of the shutdown, so they

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Speaker 1: don't need to read it those facts. I think it

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Speaker 1: has helpful to remind people periodically of those basic facts.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Tim, Tim, you're absolutely right. This is a pet

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Speaker 1: peeve of mine. I talk about this two new journalists

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Speaker 1: or those folks in journalism school where I remind people,

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Speaker 1: because I learned this from interacting with viewers during my

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Speaker 1: time at Meet the Press. Is how often a viewer,

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Speaker 1: particularly a first generation American, would come up to me

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Speaker 1: and say that they watched Meet the Press to sort

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Speaker 1: of understand how the American government works. And every time

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Speaker 1: I would get a response like that, it would remind

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Speaker 1: me that, hey, we're in the education business first, right,

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Speaker 1: that's first and foremost what a journalist is. They're educating

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Speaker 1: the public, and we shouldn't forget that. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I had a viewer one time, I think it was

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Speaker 1: somebody on social media one time respond you know, somebody

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Speaker 1: was lamenting the fact that people didn't know that there

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Speaker 1: were nine members of the Supreme Court or how all

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Speaker 1: that worked. Somebody said, how often do you put it

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Speaker 1: in your stories? And I thought, you know, that person's right.

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Speaker 1: We sometimes don't reiterate basic facts about government because we

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Speaker 1: go through this well, people already know that, or the

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Speaker 1: people that are paying attention to this story are already

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Speaker 1: going to know those things. And you're like, well, what

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Speaker 1: about the Joe demage. You know, there was a great

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Speaker 1: saying by Joe Demaggio. He used to say he played

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Speaker 1: hard every game because he thought that there might be

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Speaker 1: somebody in the stands who was coming to see him

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Speaker 1: for the very first time. And guess what, there's somebody

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Speaker 1: reading your story. There's somebody listening to my podcast, there's

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Speaker 1: somebody you know, reading your commentary for the very first time,

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Speaker 1: and if they don't understand it, they're not going to

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Speaker 1: read you again, right, or they may not be as

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Speaker 1: they may not follow the topic you're trying to get

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Speaker 1: them to follow because you didn't help them understand how

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Speaker 1: it works. So I look, I believe in this. You know,

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Speaker 1: I look at my college football writers. They spend a

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Speaker 1: lot of time explaining how the college football playoff works.

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Speaker 1: So college football fans all know how the college football

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Speaker 1: playoff works. But it's not because they went out to

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Speaker 1: look for it. It's because the new stories and the

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Speaker 1: news commentators and ESPN in particular constantly wants to remind

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Speaker 1: people how it works. Now they have an incentive, they're

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Speaker 1: trying to make a bigger deal out of it. Well,

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Speaker 1: we ought to take that same premise there. So you're

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Speaker 1: asking why did the Democrats get why should the Democrats

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Speaker 1: get blaim to their shutdown? Well, it was technically Democrats

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Speaker 1: that withheld just enough votes where the continuing Resolution to

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Speaker 1: keep the government open couldn't pass the Senate. Now in

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Speaker 1: the House, Mike Johnson got a party line vote and

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Speaker 1: he passed the continuing Resolution in the House. So what

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Speaker 1: they did is he passed that bill and then they

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Speaker 1: want to This is a case where the House wanted

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Speaker 1: to jam the Senate and they didn't want to. And

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Speaker 1: his thesis was, I'm not even going to come. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to convene the House until the Senate deals

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Speaker 1: with the bill that we gave them, and we gave

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Speaker 1: him a bill to keep the government open. It's up

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Speaker 1: to them to get that bill passed. So this is

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Speaker 1: the whole the House passed its version. So no, you're right,

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Speaker 1: the House didn't didn't convene while the government was shut down.

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Speaker 1: But what Johnson's thesis was they didn't need to because

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Speaker 1: there was no legislation. Now why else did he keep

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Speaker 1: him out, Well because he didn't want his members, you know,

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Speaker 1: board showing up on cable TV saying things that would

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Speaker 1: cause them political pain, etc. Etc. But it was also

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Speaker 1: a tactic, and this is something that happens. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's always a joke in Congress that you know that

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Speaker 1: the real divide in Congress is not Democrats versus Republicans,

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Speaker 1: it's the House versus the Senate. And so you know,

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Speaker 1: the House was essentially jamming the Senate and jamming John Thune.

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Speaker 1: So it's up to John Thune, who had fifty three

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Speaker 1: Republican senators, actually fifty two because Rand Paul indicated he

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Speaker 1: was going to vote against this deal, he had to

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Speaker 1: go find eight Democrats. So in that sense, this is

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Speaker 1: why in theory, because it needed sixty votes when Democrats

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Speaker 1: withheld their votes. Unless the Republicans are willing to get

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Speaker 1: rid of the filibuster, which was something Donald Trump talked about,

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Speaker 1: then the only way the government could get reopened is

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Speaker 1: if eight Democrats joined fifty two Republicans to reopen the government.

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Speaker 1: So I think what you're right about is every time

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Speaker 1: that the story was reported that would not be explained

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Speaker 1: at the top, And I think it's a bad habit

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Speaker 1: professional journalists, particularly Washington journalists, have come. I always say

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Speaker 1: that a lot of times Washington reports for Washington or

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Speaker 1: producers produce segments for producers. They don't think about sort

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Speaker 1: of are we educating somebody who's tuning in for the

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Speaker 1: very first time, And you know, in that sense, I

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Speaker 1: think that's something that we all need to do better on.

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Speaker 1: In this way, I love the podcast format where I

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Speaker 1: can feel like I'm not I don't have some sort

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Speaker 1: of time constraint where I have to take a shortcut

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Speaker 1: on something because the main thing I need to convey

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Speaker 1: needs a certain amount of time to explain, and I

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Speaker 1: don't want to take away from that by having to

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Speaker 1: explain the basics and yet not explaining the basics all

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Speaker 1: the time. Is what makes politics inaccessible to people. And

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Speaker 1: I've always said my real goal, and I've had this

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Speaker 1: goal ever since I entered journalism is and political journalism is.

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Speaker 1: I love politics, and my job is to explain it

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Speaker 1: in such a way that it's more accessible to people.

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Speaker 1: You know, there was another person who used to go

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Speaker 1: out of his way to talk about the Gang of

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Speaker 1: five hundred and made politics inaccessible and would claim that

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Speaker 1: politics was an exclusive club and only those in the

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Speaker 1: know understood it. Yeah, there's people that want politics to

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Speaker 1: be that way, so that way they are not subject

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Speaker 1: to what the actual democracy wants, small d democracy wants,

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Speaker 1: And so in that sense, I may populous when it

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Speaker 1: comes to information, and I think we need to make

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Speaker 1: politics more accessible, more understandable, so more people understand how

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Speaker 1: much it's impacting their lives. I hope that helped you

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Speaker 1: as to understand why in this case democrats had skin

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Speaker 1: in the game. Here, there's a reason results matter more

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Speaker 1: than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan

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Speaker 1: is America's largest injury law firm. For the last thirty

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Speaker 1: five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more

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Speaker 1: than half a million clients. It includes cases where insurance

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Speaker 1: companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to get away

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Speaker 1: with paying as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought

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Speaker 1: back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one

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Speaker 1: client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a

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Speaker 1: staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company originally offered.

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Speaker 1: That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty

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Speaker 1: six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars. So with

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Speaker 1: more than a thousand lawyers across the country, they know

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Speaker 1: how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured, you

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Speaker 1: need a lawyer, You need somebody to get your back.

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Speaker 1: Check out for the People dot Com, Slash podcast or

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Speaker 1: now Pound Law, Pound five two nine law on your

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Speaker 1: cell phone. And remember all law firms are not the same,

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Speaker 1: So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free

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Speaker 1: unless they win all right. Next question comes from Brian

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Speaker 1: in New England. Right, So, I can't help but notice

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Speaker 1: all of the liberal political commentators seem to think they

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Speaker 1: have lost the shutdown fight. Likewise, all of the conservative

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Speaker 1: political commentators believe they somehow won the shutdown fight, assuming

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Speaker 1: no last minute silliness by Senator Ran Paul. Yet all

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Speaker 1: of the more moderate political commentators seemed to paint a

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Speaker 1: vastly different picture as to who won and lost, and

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Speaker 1: most seem to think Democrats got most out of the shutdown.

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Speaker 1: So this brings up a good question, how do you

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Speaker 1: win a shutdown fight? How do you know who won

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Speaker 1: the shutdown fight? Can you even win a shutdown fight?

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Speaker 1: Or is it really just a lose lose lose for

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Speaker 1: everyone involved? Or at the end of the day, is

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Speaker 1: who won or lost a shutdown? All just vibes and

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Speaker 1: fuzzy feelings? Anyway? To me, it kind of feels like

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Speaker 1: the old whose line is at any Way? TV? Show?

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Speaker 1: Everything is made up and the points don't seem to matter. Well,

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Speaker 1: look this is you know, if you really want to

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Speaker 1: wind me up, The entire shutdown process is a manufactured

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Speaker 1: political circus. The idea that the that the most important

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Speaker 1: government on the face of the earth has a has

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Speaker 1: a bug in it that allows for parts of the

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Speaker 1: government to just simply shut down when there is a

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Speaker 1: political dispute over funding levels. Is got to be one

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Speaker 1: of the dumber things anybody does. The idea that you know,

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Speaker 1: I just think that the legal interpretations and I went

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Speaker 1: through this for those of you that wanted to go off,

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Speaker 1: you know, I am, but let me just tell you,

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Speaker 1: I am furious that there is not a single effing

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Speaker 1: member of Congress in the center of the House that

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Speaker 1: is rallying around the idea that we need to prevent

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Speaker 1: shutdowns from ever happening again. It is absurd that we

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Speaker 1: are hiring people to be air traffic controllers and part

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Speaker 1: of the process is, hey, you know, every couple of

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Speaker 1: years there's going to be a political fight and you're

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Speaker 1: not going to get paid for about a month or two.

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Speaker 1: Are you okay with that? What kind of circus are

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Speaker 1: we running here? I mean, that's just you know, deciding

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Speaker 1: to run to intentionally create a shit show government. It's stupid,

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Speaker 1: it's unnecessary, and it shouldn't be. It's dumb, it's it's

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Speaker 1: and it all the only people that benefit from a

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Speaker 1: shutdown are elected officials who are trying to make a

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Speaker 1: name for themselves. You ask who wins in a shutdown,

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Speaker 1: Individuals win, No party wins. Nobody likes the result of

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Speaker 1: the shutdown at the end of the day, everybody collectively

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Speaker 1: hates the process of it, right, But the winners are individuals.

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Speaker 1: You know, Ted Cruz, you know. So take the twenty

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Speaker 1: thirteen shutdown. Republicans quote unquote are seen as having lost

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Speaker 1: that shutdown, right because politically they did. If it wasn't

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Speaker 1: for the shutdown, Republicans would have won a governor seat

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Speaker 1: in Virginia that year, and instead Democrats won the governor seat.

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Speaker 1: So you could look at just sort of the tactics

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Speaker 1: and say, up, Republicans lost, and Ted Cruise was unpavable.

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Speaker 1: Yet Ted Cruz built a political following. Ted Cruz was

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Speaker 1: trying to run for president in twenty sixteen and build

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Speaker 1: a national following. So it worked for Ted Cruz. And

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Speaker 1: that's who these shutdowns are for. They're for partisan actors,

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Speaker 1: pure and simple, to try to make a name for themselves.

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Speaker 1: That's so the only people that have ever come out

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Speaker 1: quote unquote ahead. Right. It becomes about who can raise

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Speaker 1: the most money off of the silliness of the shutdown.

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Speaker 1: And I'm sorry, I just think the idea that it's

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Speaker 1: a practice that is somehow allowed and the only the

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Speaker 1: only reason to have it is to figure out a

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Speaker 1: way to bring more at time tention to a funding dispute.

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Speaker 1: Guess what, perhaps we shouldn't put three hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: million people in the crosshairs of a political disagreement over

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Speaker 1: funding levels. That seems like a waste of a superpower's time.

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Speaker 1: It actually makes us more vulnerable as a nation on

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Speaker 1: national security. It is certainly a huge sign of weakness.

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Speaker 1: And again there's you know, so a responsible democracy and

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Speaker 1: a responsible government wouldn't put put us in a situation

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Speaker 1: where we can just easily have a couple of people

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Speaker 1: decide that the government is just going to close its doors.

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Speaker 1: And then, of course we've exempted so many aspects of

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Speaker 1: the shutdown that if the initial idea of the shutdown

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Speaker 1: was to you know, it was going to be so

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Speaker 1: painful that everybody wouldn't want it to be be for

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Speaker 1: more than a day or two. But when you take

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Speaker 1: away you know, when you decide, well, social security isn't

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Speaker 1: going to be a part of it, and we'll exempt

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Speaker 1: military pay, and we'll exempt this, and we'll exempt that.

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Speaker 1: Then it becomes easier to do the political theater. So

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Speaker 1: I have to say, I, as a as a voter

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Speaker 1: who would like to have less dysfunction in our politics,

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Speaker 1: am sorry that there's not a single elected member of Congress,

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Speaker 1: Democrat or Republican currently advocating a no shutdowns bill. They've

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Speaker 1: existed in the past, where are they now? Where are

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Speaker 1: they today? Instead, everybody wants to perform for the frickin'

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Speaker 1: basis of each party because of how stupidly we've gerrymandered

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Speaker 1: everything and our partisan primaries, all of those things, right,

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Speaker 1: we have, all of our incentive structures are for politicians

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Speaker 1: to only pay attention to the base. And it's just

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Speaker 1: so the people that hate this shutdown stuff the most

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Speaker 1: are the ones that aren't partisan activists. And it doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like there's a single person in Congress that represents

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Speaker 1: the constituency that just doesn't want the goddamn toilet clogged purposely,

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Speaker 1: and instead this is what we have. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know if I answer your question right, I don't think

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Speaker 1: anybody won the shutdown fight. And if you're wondering to me.

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Speaker 1: You know, it is one of those where the only

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Speaker 1: time anybody gains from it is if they're trying to

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Speaker 1: if it's somebody individually trying to build their own following

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Speaker 1: for some sort of national political purpose, you know. And

431
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: the best example of that Ted Cruise twenty thirteen, a

432
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 1: shutdown that was seen as a loser but actually gave

433
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz a constituency. All right, next question comes from

434
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 1: Kenny from Long Islanding Rights. My question for you is

435
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: about the deal that seems to have been struck. It

436
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: seems to me that the Democrats traded their leverage for

437
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: a campaign at the Republicans will not have to take

438
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: the tough vote, but will inevitably vote down the Obamacare subsidies.

439
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,479
Speaker 1: And that's about it. It snap resumes, payments resumed, no one

440
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 1: gets fired. But all that is the standard course of

441
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 1: events for the end of a shutdown. The only thing

442
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 1: Senator Schumer seems to have extracted here is a tough vote.

443
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: Am I reading this correctly? If so so, why on

444
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: earth would he have fought this hard and held out

445
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: this lung, only to give up and walk away with

446
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: nothing to show for it. Lastly, I agree and disagree

447
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: with your assessment about President Trump entering this lame duck era.

448
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: I agree that's the biggest takeaway for the shutdown resolution.

449
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: To me, though, it's not because of the defiance. It's

450
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: because they negotiated a solution without him in the Senate.

451
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 1: At least the President disengaged and made it easy for

452
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 1: this to play out, but ultimately Senator thuonstruck the deal.

453
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 1: I love the new format and I feel as though

454
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: I'm learning so much more about the inside game when

455
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 1: it comes to politics. Thank you for the scoop, all right, Kenny.

456
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: I appreciate the construction constructive critique there on that front.

457
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: It's interesting. I guess I could word it, you know,

458
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: and again I would word it differently. I don't think

459
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: there's a cave here. I think there is. I think

460
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: Warnock said it. He said, if you're going to say

461
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party seems to care about those on

462
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: snap benefits more than the Republican Party cares about then

463
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 1: I think he said, guilty is charged, right, that that's

464
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: not a And I think if you're you know, again,

465
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: a better leader and a better communicator would not have

466
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: would not have signaled that this is over, would signal that,

467
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 1: you know what, I think we've We've gotten more people

468
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: aware of this healthcare issue. We're sorry that the President

469
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: wants to irresponsibly punish people that have nothing and weaponize

470
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: the FAA and all of this, and so we're not

471
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: going to let them do that. So we're going to

472
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 1: take a pause in this over the next two months.

473
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: We're going to make sure people can travel for the holidays.

474
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: And come January, there's another vote to reopen the government

475
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 1: and there's Obamacare subsidies. Okay, so I don't think they

476
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: gave away any leverage. I think they still have leverage

477
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 1: in January to essentially shut down government again if they

478
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 1: want to, if these Obamacare subsidies don't get passed for

479
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: a year. I I think that there's going to be

480
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 1: a majority of the US House that votes for these

481
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 1: Obamacare subsidies. Not a majority of Republicans, but a majority

482
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: of the House. I think you will see somewhere between

483
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: thirty and forty Republicans who do this. I think you

484
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: will see ten to fifteen Senate Republicans wanting to be

485
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 1: for this. So I think it's going to happen. I

486
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 1: think the results of the I mean, I think the

487
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: biggest impact on the healthcare subsidies was the twenty five

488
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: election results. The fact that it was a romp, the

489
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: fact that cost the living issues and Democrats didn't even

490
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 1: have the healthcare issue yet and it was working for them.

491
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: We already know how well healthcare works as an opposition

492
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: issue when you're messing with it. We just saw it

493
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen that benefited the Democrats and back in

494
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: twenty ten when it benefited the Republicans. Anytime you mess

495
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 1: with the status quo of healthcare, the party messing with

496
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: the status quo gets punished. And in this case that's

497
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 1: going to be now Publicans. And so I guess I

498
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 1: don't accept the premise that they got rid of any

499
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: of their leverage. And I think this is why I

500
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: could argue, this is why Schumer should go, because he's

501
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: a terrible communicator and he couldn't communicate that they won.

502
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: They won if you want him, you know, and he's

503
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: trying now, but he just doesn't have credibility with anybody anymore. Right.

504
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: It's like like I said, I keep comparing Schumer to

505
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick. They used to have credibility

506
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 1: with the players they coached. Now they don't anymore. That happens.

507
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: It happens in every walk of life. It happens to

508
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: political leaders all the time. There's a moment when they

509
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: have uber leverage over the entire party, and there's moments

510
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: where nobody will listen to them. George W. Bush had

511
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: so much influence over his party for a period of

512
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: time until he had no influence over his party for

513
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: a period of time. Right, it is political capital is elusive.

514
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: When you have it, you better spend it because if

515
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: you try to save it, it'll disappear. So I guess

516
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: I'm not I think they could have communicated this in

517
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: such a way where they could have been seen as

518
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: the adult in the room and not giving up their

519
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: fight on healthcare because technically they've given themselves opportunities before

520
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: the State of the Union in February to make this

521
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 1: a showdown vote one more time. All right, last question

522
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 1: comes from David Crowder, and then we'll get to the

523
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: interview with Joe Willett. I like your work in thoughtfulness,

524
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: Thank you saw your podcast is sam First Info in

525
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 1: j Jones came out in mid October Virginia begins early

526
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: voting mid September. You get my point. Second, the shutdown

527
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: argument pre pandemic. Some twelve millions participated in the bill,

528
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: their subsidies remain with premium increases. It's not a big deal.

529
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: The big deal is the twelve million who enrolled post pandemic,

530
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: who did not qualify financially for pre pandemic for subsidies,

531
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: they lose the subsidies. Is that disconnect worth shutting down

532
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: the government? I don't know. Seems like some form of

533
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: the subsidy could be agreed upon. Finally, the tax breaks

534
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: that were scheduled to expire were extended. The differences the

535
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: subsidies weren't scheduled to expire. It's all crap, David. You've

536
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: summarized the poor legislative process quite well, right. You know

537
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: the fact that we have such a dysfunctional way that

538
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: we make laws now, and we have such distrust of

539
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: the two parties that they there's always a weird poison

540
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: pills in different ways. Right. The subsidies they can't you know,

541
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: did Democrats want those subsidies in perpetuity? They did? Could

542
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: they not get enough votes to get them without putting

543
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: some sort of time stamp on it. They couldn't. Ditto

544
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: with the with the tax cut, right, they couldn't. Trump

545
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: couldn't get it permanent, so instead he had an expiration

546
00:30:54,960 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: date on it, hoping that the expiration would serve as

547
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: a fear of a tax hike and then that somehow

548
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 1: would get people to renew them. The Bush tax cuts

549
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: worked this way, right, these ten year increments. We do

550
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: this sort of funny business accounting when it comes to

551
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: the impact on the deficit, with these funny numbers with

552
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 1: the Congressional Budget Office and these estimates that are all

553
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: that are all just sort of make assumptions that nobody

554
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: can assume when it comes to the actual state of

555
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: the economy. But we make these deficit projections in such

556
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: a way that it encourages these sort of false expiration dates. Right,

557
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: some will have them, some will don't. They're usually time

558
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: to make it politically difficult to somehow not extend the deadline,

559
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: whether it's on a tax rate or whether it's on

560
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: a subsidy or whatever it is. So this goes to

561
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: the this is what you get when you don't have

562
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: a functioning committee process in Congress and not to get

563
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: really dorky here, But essentially when we totally polarized the

564
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: US Houses, which which really began sort of late eighties,

565
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: early nineties, right, and you know, there's those in the

566
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: right blame Jim Right and the Democrats, those in the

567
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: left blame Nut Gingrids and the Republicans. I think I

568
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: think sort of there was. There was certainly power plays

569
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: that Jim Right made that New Gingridge then emulated and

570
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: took to took to an took even further that ultimately

571
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 1: destroyed the committee process and the destruction of the congressional

572
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: committee process both in the House and the Senate, is

573
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: why we get such poorly written legislation which used so

574
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: I think eloquently pointed out with the way you worded

575
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: your question, the fact that the question was a bit confusing.

576
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: I don't put on you, I put on Congress because

577
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: this is how they legislate now, with these sort of

578
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: weird expiration dates. It's all designed to create sort of

579
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: political poison, almost almost like these these sort of delayed

580
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: bombs that suddenly explode and you have no choice but

581
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: to continue a policy that maybe you were never in

582
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: favor of. You know, Obama didn't want to Obama ran

583
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: on getting rid of the Bush tax cuts. Turns out

584
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: he couldn't get rid of them because of what kind

585
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: of impact it would have had on a number of

586
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: people seeing their tax bills go up, and he didn't

587
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 1: want to politically put himself in that situation. He had

588
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 1: made a pledge not to raise taxes on anybody over

589
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: I think it was four hundred thousand dollars. So that's

590
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: the new line that they drew on that. So ultimately,

591
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 1: you know, someday we're going to have a Speaker of

592
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: the House and a Senate Majority leader that actually wants

593
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,719
Speaker 1: to make the legislative branch greade again. But until that

594
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: time comes, we're going to continue to have this poor,

595
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: horribly dysfunctional legislative process that we've now seen that for

596
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: many of you, feels like the normal way Congress works,

597
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: because trust me, this was not the intent. How Congresses

598
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: worked the last thirty years is not the way that

599
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: Congress was intended to work in the previous two hundred

600
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:32,719
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628
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Speaker 1: It is that time I said every month I would

629
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 1: update my top five, top five, top top just a

630
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 1: reminder in October and the way I do this and

631
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: my ranks have been doing this since I wrote a

632
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: column called on the Trail back during my National Journal

633
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: dot com outline days, which was I like to order.

634
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 1: These races are most likely to flip parties, so not

635
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 1: in the toss up lean R lean D category, but

636
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 1: most likely to flip to least likely to flip. Obviously,

637
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 1: by keeping it to five, you know all of them

638
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: are going to be somewhat competitive races that crack the

639
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: top five. So to remind you, the last time my

640
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: top five was North Carolina one, Georgia two, Michigan three,

641
00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 1: Main four, New Hampshire five. So the idea was I had.

642
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: The assumption was the open seat in North Carolina with

643
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,439
Speaker 1: a big recruit there. North Carolina, Georgia's the Democratic health

644
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: seat of John Ossoff. Michigan, of course, the open seat

645
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 1: Gary Peters Democrat is vacating. Maine is Susan Collins, New

646
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: Hampshire is the Gene Shheen seat that she is vacating,

647
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: a Democratic seat there. So look my new top five.

648
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: In some ways, number one hasn't changed. The most likely

649
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 1: seat to flip is North Carolina. It is an open seat.

650
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 1: It is the one open seat, you know, one of

651
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: two open seats in the big seven battleground states. Right,

652
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 1: The big seven battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,

653
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: Nevada in sort of the sun belt, and Wisconsin, Michigan,

654
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania. And so when you look at the competitive

655
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,919
Speaker 1: Senate map these days, there's actually, you know, the last

656
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 1: two cycles, they all seven of those states. I think

657
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 1: two cycles in a we either had seven for seven

658
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 1: or six of the seven with Senate seats this time, right,

659
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: we'd have nothing in Arizona, nothing in Nevada. There's one

660
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 1: seat in Georgia, one seat in North Carolina, nothing in Pennsylvania,

661
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: nothing in Wisconsin, and one seat in Michigan. So it

662
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 1: is the presidential battlegrounds. This happens to be the one

663
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 1: cycle where we have the fewest amount of Senate seats

664
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 1: in the presidential battlegrounds. But I think you still have

665
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: to put you know, I think what I learned from

666
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five elections, and again history being a guide.

667
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: Every time we've seen a route like this by one party,

668
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: we have seen that continue in the following even numbered year.

669
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 1: I am looking for the time. I mean, twenty thirteen

670
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: is one of the few exceptions where Democrats did well

671
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 1: in the off off year, but that did not translate

672
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: to twenty fourteen, which was not a good year for

673
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 1: Democrats in there. And again, right, there's a reason twenty

674
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: thirteen is the exception to every single one of these

675
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: trend lines we've been talking about with New Jersey and Virginia,

676
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 1: et cetera. And you know, certain things I think that

677
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: I took away from the off off years. One, Democrats

678
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: are ready to vote, and you know, the sheer, raw

679
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: number of votes that the Democratic candidate got in New

680
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: Jersey versus the Republican candidate continues to blow me away.

681
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 1: And I think it's the single most important statistic that

682
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 1: you need to understand coming out of these off off

683
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: year elections. Right, Jack Chitarelli, the Republican nominee for governor,

684
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 1: actually got one hundred thousand more votes than he received

685
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. In twenty twenty one, that vote

686
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: total was good enough to only lose by three percentage points.

687
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty five, where he got more votes, he

688
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: loses by thirteen percentage points. The Democratic candidate Mikey Cheryl

689
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: got four hundred thousand more votes than Phil Murphy got

690
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Okay, that tells you a whole

691
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 1: bunch of Democrats who didn't bother to show up in

692
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 1: twenty one decided to show up in twenty five. I

693
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: don't think I had anything to do with Mikey Cheryl

694
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: in jec Cheddarelly, and everything to do with the larger

695
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:11,800
Speaker 1: national environment. By the way, we got that result on Tuesday.

696
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: If you recall the NBC News poll that came out

697
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: two days earlier that I am a big believer of

698
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 1: because I trust those two pollsters. They had a generic

699
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: ballot lead for the Democrats of eight points. It was

700
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,280
Speaker 1: the largest lead that Democrats had going back to twenty seventeen.

701
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: Twenty eighteen cycle another pretty good cycle for Democrats. So

702
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 1: I throw all that in there in that my new

703
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: top five list is skewed a bit towards the Democrats.

704
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 1: So number one hasn't changed. That's North Carolina. It's not

705
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: going to change. But my number two has. I had

706
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 1: Georgia's the second most vulnerable seat. After seeing what we

707
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 1: saw with those Public Service Commission races where there was

708
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 1: no money spent and Democrats just generically won by a lot,

709
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: you've got a growing divisive Republican primary. I highlighted an

710
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: add a couple of podcasts ago where Derek Dooley, the

711
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: son of Vince Dooley, the former football coach of the Bulldogs,

712
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 1: that the super pack of Brian Kemp, the sitting governor,

713
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 1: was running an ad that sort of lumped in the

714
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: two Republican congressmen in the primary and asof as all

715
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 1: responsible for the shutdown. So you now know what kind

716
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: of campaign Dooley is going to run as the outsider

717
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 1: the anti Washington crowd. I think it's a smart place

718
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: to position himself at this point though, if Dooley is

719
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 1: the nominee, I think Osof's in bigger trouble. But if

720
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 1: Dooley is not the nominee, and so far he's still

721
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: the third place candidate, I think Osoff is a bit

722
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: safer than I preps. Look, he's still in the top five,

723
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: but he is not number two most vulnerable. I think

724
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: now you have to put in the second most vulnerable,

725
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 1: Susan Collins. I do move Susan Collins up into the

726
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: second slot there. I think when you see what the

727
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 1: Democratic turnouts was in the Northeast in general, you see

728
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: the fact that in some ways the strength of the

729
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: oyster farmer Graham Platner, the fact that his support is

730
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 1: holding and it's not hurting the Democrats. The fact that

731
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 1: Jay Jones got through what he got through in Virginia,

732
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: I think is only going to serve to reassure Platner

733
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: on there. The anti Schumer vibe, the anti establishment vibe,

734
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 1: seems to be much stronger than the anti character vibe

735
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic Party right now. And you know Collins

736
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 1: is going to be defending a bunch of status quo stuff.

737
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: It is, you know, do I think if Janet Mills

738
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 1: is the Democratic nominee. Collins has a better chance of winning,

739
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: I do believe it or not, but I still think

740
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 1: it's going to be it's going to be a hard

741
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 1: time being an incumbent Republican running in twenty twenty six

742
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 1: with this likely economy that we're staring at and the

743
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: way Donald Trump is positioning the party's brand right, And

744
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 1: while Susan Collins is never going to be mistaken for

745
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: a Trump Republican, she's still going to have to carry

746
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 1: around some of that baggage, some of that baggage on tariffs,

747
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: some of that baggage on HEALTHCA. I mean, she's probably

748
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 1: going to be the loan Republican, you know, one of

749
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 1: now she won't be the loan Republicans. She's going to

750
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 1: be one of the lead Republicans trying to get these

751
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: Obamacare subsidies extended, because if they do not get extended,

752
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: she's done. She's completely done. Which is why I am

753
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 1: bullish that you will see a one year extension at

754
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 1: a minimum of these Obamacare subsidies, because I think there

755
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 1: is no senator that would be more vulnerable to a

756
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 1: decision not to do that than Susan Collins. So number

757
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: one is North Carolina. Number two is main Number three,

758
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 1: I am going to put Georgia. I still think that

759
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 1: there is certainly, you know, it is it is a

760
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: even state. We've still not seen, you know, a demo

761
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 1: until the PS elections. We hadn't see a Democrat win

762
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: a down ballot statewide contest in Georgia going back more

763
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: than ten years. But the entire political environment in Georgia,

764
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: I mean, if Georgia is indeed you know, I've been vacillating.

765
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 1: Was Georgia and anti Trump state or is Georgia simply

766
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: a swing state that demographics have been shifting over time.

767
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: And I think there's now more and more evidence that

768
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 1: this is a This is a realignment in Georgia. This

769
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: is the growth of the Atlanta suburbs, this is all

770
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 1: of those things that this is less about. And it

771
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: may be what we're seeing in the Atlanta metro areas

772
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 1: what we saw in Northern Virginia that went from being

773
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 1: an important pocket of voters for Virginia Democrats to becoming

774
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 1: the most dominant feature of the state and of the

775
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 1: politics of the state. And I think we're starting to

776
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 1: starting to see more and more of that in Georgia,

777
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: but I'm still going to put it. I'm still going

778
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 1: to put it right now in the third slot because

779
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 1: because of the fact that this time Osoff isn't going

780
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: to have be running with Rafael Warnock or a presidential campaign, right,

781
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 1: he's got to do this entire turnout operation on his

782
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:22,719
Speaker 1: on his own there, So North Carolina one Main three,

783
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 1: Georgia Main two, Georgia three, number four on the less,

784
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put Michigan, so it drops down a slot

785
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: because I've jumped started Maine there. And look, I do

786
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 1: think Mike Rogers is he went down a weird road.

787
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 1: He decided to claim that somehow the twenty twenty four

788
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:48,720
Speaker 1: election was rigged, that it or he's implying he's opening

789
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 1: the door to some conspiracy theories as to why he

790
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 1: lost in twenty twenty four. Boy, that's a long way

791
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 1: away from the Mike Rogers I first started covering when

792
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: he was in Congress. It's going to come as a surprise,

793
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: given that he doesn't really have any serious primary opposition.

794
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 1: The fact that he's going down this sort of Trump

795
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: grievance road on his twenty four election is a bit

796
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: of a head scratcher doesn't seem as if he needs

797
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 1: to be catering to that primary voter that enthusiastically. So

798
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: perhaps he really believes this, Perhaps he's going down this

799
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 1: rabbit hole. I don't think that's good politics for him,

800
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 1: but you know, he's still The reason I still give

801
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: him and why I think Michigan could be very competitive

802
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 1: is We're going to have a very messy Democratic primary.

803
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 1: Who knows who gets elected. Is that the super progressive

804
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 1: that gets elected is that the outsider, and lsied is

805
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: the progressive. McMorrow is the sort of outsider. Stevens is

806
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: the establishment candidate. They've all scrambled to be anti Schumer now,

807
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: even Stevens on that front. So that primary could get messy,

808
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 1: and it's an August primary, and it means that rogers

809
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: Is should be in a strong position. But I am

810
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: I do think that's a loser to go down the

811
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 1: conspiracy road in a swing state like Michigan. And then

812
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: I'm putting a new seat at number five. I had

813
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: New Hampshire in the top five before. No longer am

814
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,720
Speaker 1: I putting New Hampshire there because I think the political

815
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 1: environment indicates that it's more likely another Republican health seat

816
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: is going to fall before a Democratic health seat. And look,

817
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 1: I think Johnson new is a much stronger candidate that

818
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: Scott Brown potentially in an open seat. But if the

819
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 1: wind is blowing left, New Hampshire goes with the wind right,

820
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: you know, you can still get elected as a Republican

821
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, which it needs to be in a

822
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 1: either even or good Republican year. I don't know if

823
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 1: this is a winnable race for any Republican Chris or

824
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 1: Johnson unhu. If the wind is blowing as strongly for

825
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: the Democrats in twenty six as it was blowing for

826
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: the Democrats in New Jersey and in Virginia in twenty five,

827
00:47:55,400 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 1: I can just tell you thatw it the odds are,

828
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:05,720
Speaker 1: it's going to look more more like a blue state

829
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: in an environment like this than it will a swing state.

830
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 1: So my new number five is Shared Brown and Ohio.

831
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 1: John Houston is the appointed elected senator there. He's been

832
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: doing quite well in some of his union endorsements and

833
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 1: getting a few union endorsements at Shared Brown, and when

834
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:29,440
Speaker 1: he was an incumbent senator would get. But if you

835
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: just shift, if you believe the electorate in general is

836
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:34,839
Speaker 1: just going to be five points better across the board

837
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 1: for Democrats, like it was in Virginia. That basically makes

838
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 1: Ohio a coin flip. And what we learned about Shared

839
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 1: Brown in twenty four is he can run three to

840
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: five points ahead of the Democratic of the generic Democratic number.

841
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 1: He can't run eight or nine points ahead of a

842
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 1: Democratic presidential candidate. He's running in a midterm year. He

843
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: has had more success running in midterm years and he

844
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: has in presidential years. And he did win once in

845
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 1: a presidential year in twenty twelve, but he had that

846
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 1: Obama had a lot of wind at his back, and

847
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: that was quite helpful to him. In twenty eighteen, he

848
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:17,799
Speaker 1: was able to win in a Trump year thanks to

849
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 1: a combination of a week Republican opponent, but also just

850
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 1: again it was a good Democratic year. So at this

851
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 1: point I put Ohio there. And this means three of

852
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: the five in my five most vulnerable are Republican held seats.

853
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: So if Democrats sweep the five hold for Georgian Michigan

854
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: and flip North Carolina, Maine in New Hampshire, they are

855
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 1: only one seat away from the majority. That's where this

856
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 1: top five list sits right now. That's this is why

857
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:51,360
Speaker 1: if you want to mess around on the political betting markets,

858
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 1: one of the best early bets to make right now

859
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: because it's a sheriff stock, and then you could sell

860
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 1: that share before the results actually happen. Because if Democrats

861
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 1: succeed in good candidate recruits in Alaska, a good candidate

862
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:09,360
Speaker 1: in Kansas, you may see them get six or seven

863
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: Republican held seats in the competitive category. Will they win

864
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 1: them all? No, But if they can put Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska,

865
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: they can put three of those five in play. In

866
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: addition to the three that I think they already now

867
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:27,240
Speaker 1: have a either even or slightly better chance at flipping,

868
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 1: you suddenly have a path to the Senate majority. There

869
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: you go. The top five list this week North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan,

870
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 1: Ohio the five Senate states most likely to flip this month.

871
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:49,919
Speaker 1: As far as the Chuck Podcast is concerned, having good

872
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 1: life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience.

873
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 1: I was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't

874
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: have any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.

875
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: Other single mother now widow, myself sixteen, trying to figure

876
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: out how am I going to pay for college? And

877
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 1: lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy

878
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 1: that we found wasn't a lot, but it was important

879
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: at the time, and it's why I was able to

880
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:18,840
Speaker 1: go to college. Little did he know how important that

881
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 1: would be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why

882
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Speaker 1: I am here to tell you about Etho's life. They

883
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Speaker 1: can provide you with peace of mind knowing your family

884
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Speaker 1: is an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast

886
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887
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Speaker 1: not months. There's no complicated process, and it's one hundred

888
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Speaker 1: percent online. There's no medical exam require you just answer

889
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Speaker 1: a few health questions online. You can get a quote

890
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892
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Speaker 1: get up to three million dollars in coverage, and some

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Speaker 1: policies start as low as two dollars a day that

894
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Speaker 1: would be billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five,

895
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,919
Speaker 1: Business Insider named Ethos the number one no medical exam

896
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Speaker 1: instant life insurance provider. So protect your family with life

897
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898
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos dot com slash chuck.

899
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,479
Speaker 1: Application times may vary, and the rates themselves may vary

900
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: as well, but trust me, life insurance is something you

901
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 1: should really think about it, especially if you've got a

902
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 1: growing family. All right, let's take a couple more questions

903
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: ask Chuck. None of these will be shut down related.

904
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 1: This one comes from a third generation Navy vet, John B.

905
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 1: From Saint Louis, and he writes, Hey, thanks for responding

906
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 1: to my question about the atomic bowl. All right, so

907
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 1: it's a not a first time long time, but at

908
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 1: least a second time long time. I'm a World War

909
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: Two and Cold War history buff, and I think it's

910
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 1: crucial to keep conversations about those times alive in our

911
00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:59,800
Speaker 1: modern discourse. We live in the shadow of those events.

912
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 1: I'm wondering how America might have been different during the

913
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 1: past fifty years if we had not ended the draft

914
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,240
Speaker 1: falling Vietnam. I think we could expand that to include

915
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: national service in general. Thoughts, John, you are scratching an

916
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 1: itch that I'm constantly dealing with I think, you know,

917
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 1: I think not having national service. I think national service

918
00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 1: could be a huge advancement of trying to depolarize America, right, geting,

919
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:32,839
Speaker 1: getting people, getting American citizens to believe that they have

920
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 1: to that part of your citizenship is to give a

921
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: little bit to this country and service. And it doesn't

922
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 1: have to be in the military. It can be a

923
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 1: variety of ways you can you can give. It could

924
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 1: be working, you know, in home health care for an

925
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: elderly parent without a close knit family. It could be

926
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 1: cleaning up rivers and streams. It could be teaching in

927
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 1: underserved communities that need more school teachers. It could simply

928
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 1: be two to ring, or it could be military service.

929
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 1: I think anything. It's why I think that in general,

930
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:09,360
Speaker 1: you know, I'm speaking on Veterans Day here. In general,

931
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 1: I'm a big advocate of bringing as many veterans as

932
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 1: you can into the into the workforce, into any sort

933
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:20,399
Speaker 1: of culture, because most military veterans, the experience of being

934
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 1: in the military exposed them to people that grew up

935
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 1: differently than them, people that worshiped different faiths than they did,

936
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: but they all learned how to have a common mission

937
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 1: and buy in some ways wearing the same uniform. They

938
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 1: realize when you wear the same uniform, you bleed the

939
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 1: same red blood. That hey, they're really the differences really

940
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 1: are all surface. They're not they're not very deep at all.

941
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 1: So not to sort of try to like, you know,

942
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: but for the good old days kind of mindset. I'm

943
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 1: a I'm a huge advocate of National service, and I

944
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: think it could be a again, you know, you know,

945
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: whether it's a way to pay for college. There's all

946
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 1: sorts of ways that you create sort of for every

947
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 1: year of national you know, maybe everybody has to do one,

948
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 1: and every extra year you give you get that much

949
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:13,759
Speaker 1: more off of your tuition. But I think there's a

950
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 1: lot of ways, you know, or to trade school, whatever

951
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:18,440
Speaker 1: you wanted to do it. Anything that we could do

952
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 1: to sort of get Americans from different walks of life

953
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: to have to have to give back for a period

954
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:30,319
Speaker 1: of time only strengthens the fabric of this country. So

955
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 1: I'm a huge advocate, all right. Next question comes from

956
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,359
Speaker 1: Chase little rock hocketsas and response to your question about

957
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 1: staying on the thirteenth floor in game day. If a

958
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 1: black cat crossed my path while I walked under a ladder,

959
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 1: on the way out of my thirteenth floor hotel room

960
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 1: in Fayetteville. I wouldn't have bat it an eye. This

961
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 1: razorback football season has already used up every ounce of

962
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 1: luck in the entire state. Bobby Petrino's come back to

963
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:52,799
Speaker 1: or hit all the wrong notes, and honestly, Fayeville needs

964
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,240
Speaker 1: a total do over, new coach, new schemes. I knew everything.

965
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 1: So at the college football job market heating up, which

966
00:55:57,560 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: openings do you think are the most tempting and who's

967
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:05,919
Speaker 1: got the chops or luck to fill them? Go hogs eventually? Well, look,

968
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 1: you know, Florida is always the the It's one of

969
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: those that you think it should be a bigger power

970
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,320
Speaker 1: than it is. Irony is that the history of Florida

971
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:20,919
Speaker 1: football is actually quite mediocre. Right. They've really only had

972
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 1: two brief periods of success, one with Steve Spurrier, one

973
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:27,680
Speaker 1: with Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow which really probably have

974
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 1: to talk more to Tim Tebow than urban Meyer, and

975
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 1: they've been mediocre report and every other you know, at

976
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 1: any other period. In theory, it should be a great

977
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 1: job to have. In theory, it should be a place

978
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 1: that you could become a powerhouse. It seems to be

979
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: a cesspool of micromanagers. Right. It's kind of like you

980
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:52,919
Speaker 1: know what Auburn is. It's like, you know, it has

981
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: all the ingredients, but it's impossible to succeed because the

982
00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 1: boosters are always going to get in your way. It

983
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,360
Speaker 1: just trusts me from experienced mind me so on paper,

984
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 1: it's Florida, but you know, I'm a huge I think

985
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,840
Speaker 1: Arkansas is a hidden I think Faetteville is a is

986
00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:12,239
Speaker 1: a is a hidden gem in the South. I think

987
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 1: it's one of the it's you know, it's it's going

988
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 1: to be the next Austin or Nashville. I think it's

989
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 1: a great place to live. I think that somebody's going

990
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 1: to crack that code. And when you have Tyson Chicken

991
00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 1: money and Walmart money, the the you know, if the

992
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: if the university athletic program will invest in football, Arkansas

993
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 1: could be a great job. It is not clear they

994
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 1: want to invest in football as much as they do

995
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 1: basketball and baseball. That seems to be the be the

996
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 1: biggest problem there. I do think the Penn State job

997
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 1: is actually quite appealing to because there's such a loyal

998
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 1: fan base. You I actually think even though Franklin you know,

999
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 1: think about how long he survived without succeeding at the

1000
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 1: tippy tippy top, which means fan base has actually a

1001
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 1: lot more patience than it gets credit for. So that

1002
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 1: would be a good one that I think you could

1003
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 1: see quick success at and sustained success that and be

1004
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 1: in a community that would be pretty comforting. I mean

1005
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 1: you could turn you could definitely turn Happy Valley into

1006
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 1: Tuscaloosa and have a Nick Saban like run there. And

1007
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 1: that's probably the way I look at it. Where could

1008
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 1: you have a Nick Saban like run where you might

1009
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 1: go a decade and just be so dominant. I think

1010
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 1: fills a place to do that. Think I think a

1011
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: Happy Valley is a place to do that. I'm less

1012
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: convinced you can do that in Gainesville, and I don't

1013
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 1: you know, I think history shows you it's pretty difficult

1014
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 1: to do. And I don't know if Virginia Tech can

1015
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 1: be on that highest level right now. I don't know

1016
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 1: if they have the financial backing to do that on

1017
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: that front. All right, I'm gonna take one more question here.

1018
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 1: This comes from john S and Millie Waukee. Of course,

1019
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:08,479
Speaker 1: everything I've learned about socialist mayors came from Wayne's World

1020
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:12,800
Speaker 1: the movie and Alice Cooper. But I digress. Diehard listener here,

1021
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 1: just finish your podcast with rich Tawe. Fascinating. You answered

1022
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 1: my past question about voters in Ozaki and Sheboygan County's

1023
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 1: voting anti woman richest focus group confirmed my hunch some

1024
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 1: voters dislike Trump, but voter form anyway likely because of Harris.

1025
00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 1: Have your thoughts on this changed at all, even if

1026
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 1: the polling doesn't pick it up. Look, I think it's

1027
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:37,760
Speaker 1: pretty clear there was a group of voters that, you know,

1028
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 1: that Harris couldn't appeal to. That I guess what you're

1029
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 1: you know the better the question is that Joe Biden

1030
00:59:45,720 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 1: did appeal to in twenty twenty. Yes, but I also

1031
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 1: think it's pretty clear. You know, I think it's a

1032
00:59:56,080 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 1: fair question about about whether it is heart. You know,

1033
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 1: I think I think race is less of an issue.

1034
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 1: I think gender was more of an issue. But it's

1035
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 1: hard to disaggregate it because you had a poor economic environment.

1036
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 1: She was defending the history of sitting vice presidents trying

1037
01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 1: to succeed unpopular presidents is pretty stark, right. You know,

1038
01:00:26,720 --> 01:00:32,000
Speaker 1: Hubert Humphrey couldn't win with LBJ. But he came awfully close,

1039
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 1: and neither could she. So it is I think it's

1040
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:39,919
Speaker 1: hard to find isolate the specific voter itself. You hear

1041
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 1: it in there, but you'd have a better argument if

1042
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 1: she lost with a better economic record. And I think

1043
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 1: that that's, you know, it is. I still think there's

1044
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 1: a little bit of choose your own adventure on this

1045
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 1: that you can. You certainly hear it in there, and

1046
01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 1: you certainly hear it in the focus groups, and Rich

1047
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:07,600
Speaker 1: sort of described it. It is a hurdle, but I

1048
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:14,360
Speaker 1: don't think it's a brick wall. And but it becomes

1049
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 1: a brick wall if you know, there's like this massive

1050
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 1: economic downturn, right if if a whole bunch of other

1051
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 1: stuff are going, it's sort of it is a factor,

1052
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: not the factor on this front. So I think that that.

1053
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 1: I mean, if we were seeing women struggle to win

1054
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 1: governorships in these swing states, I'd be I would be

1055
01:01:41,200 --> 01:01:44,440
Speaker 1: more persuaded. But you know, we look a look at

1056
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 1: the state of Michigan. It's elected, you know, to two

1057
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:54,800
Speaker 1: term women governors in the last twenty years, in Jennifer

1058
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 1: Granholme and Gretchen Wetmer, but they didn't support Kamala Harris

1059
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 1: was that, you know, so I think that that it.

1060
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 1: I think you can't dismiss it as a factor, but

1061
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: I will. I am still going to dismiss it as

1062
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 1: the factor, if that's fair, all right. So I'm going

1063
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:17,760
Speaker 1: to leave that there because guess what. I'll be back

1064
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 1: in twenty four hours with another episode of the Check

1065
01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:21,439
Speaker 1: podcast until we upload again.