WEBVTT - Cliff Notes: Are We Dodging a Recession, or Already in One?

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:11.840
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:15.840
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

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<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

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<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland.

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<v Speaker 3>Security, interest rates hit the highest level in twenty two years.

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<v Speaker 3>My lord, what does this mean for us as consumers?

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<v Speaker 4>Unfortunately, the prices of everything is going to go up.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll talk about the real estate pending bubble that we

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<v Speaker 4>have with real estate rental prices being so high. But

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<v Speaker 4>for those of us who are old enough to remember,

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<v Speaker 4>this may not be the end. I remember a time

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<v Speaker 4>when if you had like a five to eighty credit score,

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<v Speaker 4>if you paid for a mortgage, your interest rates could

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<v Speaker 4>be twelve or eleven percent.

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<v Speaker 5>I hope that we don't go that high.

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<v Speaker 4>De Fed's been pretty clear in their plan for the

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<v Speaker 4>last year and a half about what they want to do,

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<v Speaker 4>But I'm seeing people are starting to get a little

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<v Speaker 4>bit worried. We talked about it before, the average payment

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<v Speaker 4>of seven ninety for a new car. The rental market

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<v Speaker 4>is going up, mortgages are going up. Everything is just

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<v Speaker 4>going to cost more. So we have to be a

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<v Speaker 4>lot more effective in our planning and our spending as

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<v Speaker 4>interest rates go up.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 6>So, I mean for consumers, like you just said, Carl,

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<v Speaker 6>loans are going to cost more, credit cards are going

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<v Speaker 6>to the debt's going to be the interest rates are

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<v Speaker 6>going to be higher, and mortgage rates are going to

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<v Speaker 6>be higher. That's what it means, right straight up. That's

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<v Speaker 6>what this means with the interest rates being raised. But

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<v Speaker 6>on the other side, well, there's another thing.

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<v Speaker 5>That it means.

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<v Speaker 2>It means that we're further away.

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<v Speaker 6>From two percent, which is what betcha Pale has been saying,

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<v Speaker 6>like they want to get back to two percent. But

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<v Speaker 6>as we keep raising and keep raising and hopefully they

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<v Speaker 6>think like this will be there'll be a pause in September,

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<v Speaker 6>if not maybe a quarter, and then it's going to

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<v Speaker 6>be depending on the economic data, which is shown that

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<v Speaker 6>it may stop. We'll get to five and a half

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<v Speaker 6>percent and it'll stop there, which is further. But on

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<v Speaker 6>the bright side, if there is one, does that mean,

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<v Speaker 6>and I outpose this question, does that mean where recession

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<v Speaker 6>is off the table? Because that's what you know that

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<v Speaker 6>that's the other part of this. Right at the interest

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<v Speaker 6>rates get higher. Economic data is showing that, you know what,

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<v Speaker 6>there might be a chance for a soft lending and

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<v Speaker 6>maybe we don't go into a.

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<v Speaker 7>Recession which could cause.

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<v Speaker 5>A catastrophic event.

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<v Speaker 3>I think they already know that a recession is not

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<v Speaker 3>going to happen this year, so most economic analysts are

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<v Speaker 3>in agreement that we probably will not see a recession.

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<v Speaker 6>So then where when we talked about this in February,

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<v Speaker 6>when we're saying, all right, by definition, this should be

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<v Speaker 6>right two negative quarter does equal our recession? Did we

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<v Speaker 6>have to now change what definition is for a recession

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<v Speaker 6>right because they didn't really feel like one, because this

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<v Speaker 6>might have been the bullish recession we've ever seen.

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<v Speaker 5>I think they changed it to fifth the narrative that

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<v Speaker 5>was good at the time.

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<v Speaker 4>So like if a triple double is nine points nine

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<v Speaker 4>rebounds and nine steals, Jason Kidd may have the all

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<v Speaker 4>time record, Like, I think they adjusted it for what

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<v Speaker 4>was convenient for them to prevent panic.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think we should change the definition.

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<v Speaker 4>I think this would be like the Balco era of investing,

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<v Speaker 4>where it's like, hey, this one just didn't count, which

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<v Speaker 4>is interesting in the self and his interest rates go up,

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<v Speaker 4>its slows down spending for a lot of people. If

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<v Speaker 4>you ask anyone as we're out and about, I don't

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<v Speaker 4>think people feel more confident in the financial situation more

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<v Speaker 4>so now than they did two years ago. So I

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<v Speaker 4>don't know how they keep saying that the economy is

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<v Speaker 4>in such a great place when interest is going up,

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<v Speaker 4>like even like, for let's say, if you can rent

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<v Speaker 4>a full bedroom in New York, what's the cost to

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<v Speaker 4>rent that in New York now?

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<v Speaker 5>Eight thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>But you know what's so crazy is like going back

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<v Speaker 3>to the eye test and I was talking to more,

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<v Speaker 3>shout out to more and we were just having a

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<v Speaker 3>conversation from yeah from Royal and Ma shou out Tom

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<v Speaker 3>money bags in chat and we were talking and I

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<v Speaker 3>was a comedy bas no recession for him.

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<v Speaker 7>It's a fact. A few different people about.

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<v Speaker 3>The luxury apartment buildings in New York if interesting dynamic

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<v Speaker 3>was happening here, these luxury apartment buildings in New York.

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<v Speaker 3>And I've seen it happen in Atlanta as well, where

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<v Speaker 3>they're starting to look like.

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<v Speaker 5>Trap house boy.

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<v Speaker 7>Not even that.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just like you see a bunch of people just

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<v Speaker 3>in the lobby hanging out outside. A lot of dancers

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<v Speaker 3>are moving in, and I'm like.

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<v Speaker 5>Yo, ballerinas, Yeahsion is it?

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<v Speaker 3>Because yesterday I'm like, what are you like? Yo, it's

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of money out here, Okay, people getting money?

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<v Speaker 2>This is this is this is what I'm getting too.

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<v Speaker 3>Because I'm like, they can't be that many because they

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<v Speaker 3>have different programs to get people in. But I'm like,

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<v Speaker 3>everybody here can't be on the program, So how is

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<v Speaker 3>every how is these And it's not just one building.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a trend that's happening. And he was like, Yo,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a lot of money out here.

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<v Speaker 6>So that's what I'm getting too, right, Like, if we

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<v Speaker 6>look at consumer spending, it's pretty strong. So at some

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<v Speaker 6>point when is it not going to be strong? And

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<v Speaker 6>as far as like from an enterprise side, like, at

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<v Speaker 6>some point even when we look at some of these

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<v Speaker 6>earnings and we expected growth to slow down, right, we

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<v Speaker 6>expected revenue to be cut back, especially in the second

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<v Speaker 6>half of this year, but when we looked at the

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<v Speaker 6>rapporting from the second quarter, we're not seeing that. So

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<v Speaker 6>at what point where we see the effects of the

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<v Speaker 6>interest rates being raised? Is it the second half of

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<v Speaker 6>twenty twenty four, is it twenty twenty five's first quarter? Like,

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<v Speaker 6>at some point when will we see the effects? Because

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, you raise interest rates, it's going to take

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<v Speaker 6>time for it to kick in. But like to Shotty's point,

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<v Speaker 6>people are still spending and this isn't like PPP anymore,

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<v Speaker 6>Like this is something different.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, let me run off two stats real quick.

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<v Speaker 4>Yet of people in the US with equity has uh

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<v Speaker 4>the equities were worth less than it was two years

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<v Speaker 4>ago pre pandemic it was twenty seven percent and eighty

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<v Speaker 4>three point five percent of people ages twenty five to

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<v Speaker 4>fifty four are looking for work, which is two point

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<v Speaker 4>two million more than COVID. The truth is like it'll

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<v Speaker 4>start to be shown after whoever wins the next election.

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador

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<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with

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<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 1>are here illegally your next you will be fined nearly

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

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<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

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<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.

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<v Speaker 4>There's a lot of fear that if this is announced

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<v Speaker 4>before the next election, that Biden will be thrown out

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<v Speaker 4>of office. And I can totally understand why the Republicans

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<v Speaker 4>don't want Trump to get back in the Republican parties

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<v Speaker 4>and shambles and who they want to lead. The Santus

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<v Speaker 4>is having trouble. They don't want to back RFK, they

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<v Speaker 4>don't want Trump. The Democrats are stuck with Biden and

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<v Speaker 4>Hunter having fun in the white out White House office.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's a shit show across the political landscape in

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<v Speaker 4>terms of like the presidential race. But I think after

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<v Speaker 4>the new president is announced, then we'll start to see

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<v Speaker 4>what the real data is and how things are really going.

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<v Speaker 4>And yes, actually that stripper indicator for the ratio of

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<v Speaker 4>strippers that buy homes and properties is an actual index

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<v Speaker 4>to look at.

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<v Speaker 5>It really is.

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<v Speaker 4>So I know it's a lot of people get money,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's a lot of people who are out here hurting,

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<v Speaker 4>and I don't think that they're telling a real story

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<v Speaker 4>about the economy of what's going on. And I think

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<v Speaker 4>after the election the truth will start to come out slowly,

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<v Speaker 4>but surely.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, well, inflation numbers have gone down, right, I

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<v Speaker 6>mean when what you're speaking to the unemployment rate, from

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<v Speaker 6>what we've seen, it's been pretty low, certain portant, So

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<v Speaker 6>I mean it's kind of consistent, right If they're saying

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<v Speaker 6>like the first quarter of twenty twenty five, then that

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<v Speaker 6>would be after the presidential cycle, right, because the president

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<v Speaker 6>will be elected in twenty four of November. They don't

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<v Speaker 6>go into office in twenty five, So maybe that is

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<v Speaker 6>consistent and we will see that, right, because who wants

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<v Speaker 6>to have that on their tenure, on their resume, there

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<v Speaker 6>was a recession during your term, right, especially if you're

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<v Speaker 6>trying to be re elected, that definitely is not going

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<v Speaker 6>to help shany.

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<v Speaker 5>It's the point I know you want to bring upside.

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<v Speaker 5>Don't want this to be left out.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, well, I feel like, you know, it's a few

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<v Speaker 3>different things that's happening. It's interesting because, yeah, there are

0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:45.880
<v Speaker 3>people that are struggling, but the economy.

0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.040
<v Speaker 7>Itself is still healthy.

0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.839
<v Speaker 3>The stock market is booming, and you said, unemployment is

0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:56.719
<v Speaker 3>down reasonably, inflation has come down, the housing market is

0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.720
<v Speaker 3>still high. You know, it kind of slumped a little bit,

0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.360
<v Speaker 3>but it's it hasn't fallen off a cliff, and it

0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.080
<v Speaker 3>still places like Miami where it's just going crazy. Miami

0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.600
<v Speaker 3>is at a point I don't know how it can

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 3>Like Miami is at a point now where it's unstoppable,

0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:14.480
<v Speaker 3>and the way that they're developing, it's gonna look like

0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:17.120
<v Speaker 3>it's gonna look like Manhattan in five years. Like the

0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.080
<v Speaker 3>development that's happening in Miami and the money that's flowing

0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 3>into Miami right now is unbelievable. And it's still places

0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:25.400
<v Speaker 3>like New York where real estate is still high, and

0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:27.400
<v Speaker 3>rents are still high, and people are still living in

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:29.920
<v Speaker 3>Drake set up a whole residency in New York. I've

0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:31.480
<v Speaker 3>never really seen anything like they. Was in New York

0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.240
<v Speaker 3>for two weeks doing six shows. He sold out mass regard.

0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 3>I don't know why he just didn't do arenas.

0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 5>Well. He did four in Barklady, three in the Garden.

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.680
<v Speaker 3>But that's what I'm saying, like that's unprecedented. Like he

0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:43.680
<v Speaker 3>set up shop in New.

0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:45.520
<v Speaker 6>York to do Harry Styles the fifteen in a row.

0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.360
<v Speaker 7>Those tickets are not cheap. They're not They are not

0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:51.760
<v Speaker 7>twelve hundred dollars.

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 3>Two thousand, and he's selling out every single night. So

0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:59.200
<v Speaker 3>there's different things that's happening with this economy where I

0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:04.760
<v Speaker 3>don't think that it's to the point where you know,

0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 3>it is extremely.

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 2>Bad that they did it.

0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.240
<v Speaker 6>Interested in report on that, and this is why I

0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.160
<v Speaker 6>had to talk about Live Nation, because they were looking

0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:17.200
<v Speaker 6>at that the economic impact that some of these these

0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 6>tours are having it on these cities and the economy

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.560
<v Speaker 6>in general. Right when you got to tell Swift, who's

0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 6>doing her world tour and it's in the United States

0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.440
<v Speaker 6>and it's boost the economy of each city that she's in.

0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 5>Beyonce's doing the world tour.

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 6>Now she's in America doing it, and she's boost the

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.680
<v Speaker 6>economy right from a travel standpoint, from a hospitality standpoint,

0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 6>and from the revenue that's being in brought into the

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 6>arenas or these stadiums that they because they I shouldn't

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.200
<v Speaker 6>say arenas, they're doing stadium tours and attaches that are

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.280
<v Speaker 6>so these things are helping as well. I talked about

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.120
<v Speaker 6>the weekend before about what he's doing, and you just

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 6>mentioned Drake, So like all these tours happening, they're helping

0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 6>from a certain standpoint.

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 5>I know it's a small piece.

0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.120
<v Speaker 6>I think they brought in like five billion dollars over

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:59.559
<v Speaker 6>the course of the end of June and July, which is.

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:00.640
<v Speaker 5>A large amount.

0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.080
<v Speaker 6>But to the economy which is like over was it

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:07.040
<v Speaker 6>seventy trillion? It plays a part in it. It plays

0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:09.520
<v Speaker 6>his part in it. It definitely does. And I think

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 6>I gotta give Jill credit.

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 4>He said to that in a couple of years that

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.960
<v Speaker 4>a going to concerts will be like a super luxury item,

0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 4>and we're getting there now, Like drink tickets are not cheap.

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 4>Taylor Swift isn't cheap. When we tried to go to

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 4>that Harry Styles concert last year, I think the tickets

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 4>was twenty five hundred and couldn't get tickets who sold out.

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 5>Every date possible to be able to go.

0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 4>So I think those that are doing well are continuing

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 4>to do well.

0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.080
<v Speaker 5>But those who are not doing well and.

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 4>Those that have been lost the last four or five years,

0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.440
<v Speaker 4>I think this gap and the disparity is becoming so

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:46.520
<v Speaker 4>wide that it's going to.

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 5>Be hard to make up for it in a few years.

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 4>That's my concern. Yes, of course, there's always going to

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:54.720
<v Speaker 4>be people who make money. They're going to be high earners.

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.360
<v Speaker 4>It's that eighty to twenty rule, like twenty percent of

0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 4>the people are going to make an.

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.760
<v Speaker 5>Exordinant amount of money. Is not.

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 4>But I'm worried about that gap being so wide with

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.040
<v Speaker 4>the rise and rate even here in Houston, Like there's

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.360
<v Speaker 4>a lot of people who moved to Houston because it

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 4>was considered affordable, and now a lot of them are

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 4>also being priced out. So I think the gap is

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 4>a story that isn't being told. And every company seems

0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 4>to be adjusting to going the luxury route or premium

0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:23.760
<v Speaker 4>pricing which I've always been pro. But the lower end

0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 4>companies I was reading an article earlier. Amazon and Walmart

0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:30.440
<v Speaker 4>are now expounding, excuse me, expanding to India as well,

0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 4>following the footsteps of Apple. Zanna say said, congressing your win.

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 4>So I think India's economy is raising up and it's

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.880
<v Speaker 4>filling in that middle class gap that we lost, and

0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 4>we're really a luxury good, luxury service kind of market now,

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 4>and it's going to be bad for a lot of people.

0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:53.240
<v Speaker 7>All right, we'll mind to the situation.

0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:01.680
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member Romel Salvador accused

0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 1>of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with filming

0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some

0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:13.560
<v Speaker 1>of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J.

0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 1>Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States Secretary of

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 1>Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 1>at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred

0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 1>thousand illegal aliens.

0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:27.800
<v Speaker 2>Have been arrested.

0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>If you are here illegally, your next you will be fine.

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Nearly one thousand dollars a day. Imprisoned and deported, you

0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:39.720
<v Speaker 1>will never return. But if you register using our CBP

0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.600
<v Speaker 1>home app and leave now, you could be allowed to

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 1>return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:51.240
<v Speaker 1>America's laws, border and families will be protected.

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.480
<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,