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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Folk, to the Action Network podcast at UFC Betting

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Speaker 3: Preview presented by DraftKings. I'm your host Sean Zarrillo, joined

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Speaker 3: today by Billy Ward to help you break down a

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Speaker 3: thirteen fight card as of now, as always for UFC Seattle.

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Speaker 3: Give your best bets, favorite underdogs, top props, and more.

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Speaker 3: And if you'd like to tell some of the bets

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Speaker 3: that we discuss on today's show, make sure to find

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Speaker 3: the quick slippings folk in the podcast or radio description,

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Speaker 3: or visit Action network dot com slash bet now as

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Speaker 3: a as I said, at thirteen fight card as of

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Speaker 3: now from Seattle five pm prelims, main card at a

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Speaker 3: pm Eastern at the Climate Pledge Arena and no more

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Speaker 3: perfectly named arena for Seattle, Washington as of now the

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Speaker 3: thirteen fight card.

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Speaker 4: We always record these prior.

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Speaker 3: Toway ins and we tend to lose one fight at

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Speaker 3: every way and as of late but hopefully all thirteen

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Speaker 3: of these fights end up staying on the card. In

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Speaker 3: the main event Israel Atasania out about a BAYNUS one

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Speaker 3: fifty going up against Jeopifer at plus one thirty five

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Speaker 3: round middleweight main event. Is he seven years older, but

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Speaker 3: he is the bigger man two inches taller with a

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Speaker 3: five inch reach advantage. He's the more efficient striker throughout

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Speaker 3: their respective careers, also has faced superior competition relative to

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Speaker 3: Pifer seventy seven percent takedown defense. That is probably the

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Speaker 3: key stat in this fight. Because Pifer's only completed four

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Speaker 3: of his sixteen takedown attempts in the UFC, his best

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Speaker 3: path will be to try to out muscle and out

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Speaker 3: physical Isy early, try to get into the clench and

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Speaker 3: see if he can get Izzy down to the ground. Izzy,

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Speaker 3: we have seen knocked out twice in his past five fights,

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Speaker 3: also got dropped in another fight as well by Sean Strickland. Pifer,

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Speaker 3: you know, we've seen just lose the cardio completely in

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Speaker 3: the back half of his fights the main event against

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Speaker 3: Jack Hermants in the third round against Calvin Gaslam. So

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Speaker 3: I think Billy and I are of a similar mind

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Speaker 3: about this fight. We both like Easy to have more

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Speaker 3: success later on, but the early rounds could potentially be

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Speaker 3: dangerous for him. So I gave out a different bet

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Speaker 3: than what Billy has here. I think I prefer his angle.

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Speaker 3: I just wanted to give another option potentially for betting

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Speaker 3: this fight. That's the fight to start round four at

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty, and then also easy Live probably after

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Speaker 3: round two could be your best entry point, maybe even

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Speaker 3: after round one, but anytime after round one, with the

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Speaker 3: best inflection point potentially coming after round two or midway

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Speaker 3: through round two, because I do expect Izzy to have

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Speaker 3: the much better gas tank in the back half the

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Speaker 3: fight here. But unless he gets knocked out with an

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Speaker 3: overhand through the first three rounds, or unless he knocks

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Speaker 3: out Pifer with a head kick in the first three rounds,

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Speaker 3: I think this one goes at least fifteen minutes and

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Speaker 3: gets to the championship round. So, Billy, of a similar mindset,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you like easy Live too. Let me know

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Speaker 3: where you think we might get the best price on that.

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Speaker 3: And then in terms of your actual bet for this fight,

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Speaker 3: you're going with the same game parlay Audus Signia and

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Speaker 3: the fight to start round three is minus one ten.

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Speaker 3: Again I said fight to start round four is minus

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Speaker 3: one sixty. So considering we both like Izzy late, combining

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Speaker 3: him and getting minus one ten for the fight to

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Speaker 3: start round three, I think is a good approach. Where's

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Speaker 3: your price target on that bet? Where are you thinking

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Speaker 3: about entering live? And any other angles he got for

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Speaker 3: this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the current draftings SGP price on that is minus

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Speaker 1: one ten. I was kind of just clicking over turned

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Speaker 1: on the dynamic odds with Izzy and was trying to

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Speaker 1: get it roughly even money.

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Speaker 5: Now, that was about as close as you can get.

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Speaker 1: I don't see Datinia just knocking him out right off

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Speaker 1: the bat with the head kick or anything like that.

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Speaker 5: I think he's gonna play it fairly safe.

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Speaker 1: This is an interesting one for live stuff where it's

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Speaker 1: not it's not so much the cardio angle, although it's

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Speaker 1: not not the cardio angle, it's that I just want

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Speaker 1: some more information on Izzy because he's been you know,

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Speaker 1: a little bit unmotivated, a little bit lax in his

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Speaker 1: last couple of fights, and I think if Pifer has

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Speaker 1: any shot, it's going to be a quick knockout. I

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Speaker 1: designed is a much better overall fighter, right like skill

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Speaker 1: for skill, he is way better. The risk is does

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Speaker 1: he really care that much or is he just kind

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Speaker 1: of fighting out the last couple of fights on his contract.

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Speaker 1: I think he's had two hundred ish professional fights, counting

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Speaker 1: kickboxing and boxing and everything he's done, you can see

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Speaker 1: why the motivation might not be there anymore to fight

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Speaker 1: the number fifteen ranked middleweight after being a long serving

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Speaker 1: champion and all of that. So that's my concern. I'm

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Speaker 1: not even so much worried about getting a better price

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Speaker 1: on him as much as surviving the dangerous first few

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Speaker 1: minutes of Pifer just throwing big punches and seeing that

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Speaker 1: he looks quick, he looks sharp, he looks like he

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Speaker 1: cares and wants to be there. And if that happens

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Speaker 1: at the end of a round one and you have

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Speaker 1: to pay a little bit worse of a price than

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Speaker 1: his pre fight money line, I'll live with that, you know.

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Speaker 1: Or if he ideally he takes a couple of punches,

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Speaker 1: rallies back and then play for it, starts to look tired.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, so I'm not in. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: great pre fight entree point. I'm when I'm going to

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Speaker 1: try to get on is a I'm willing to pay

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Speaker 1: more juice to dodge the danger at the beginning and

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Speaker 1: gather more information.

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Speaker 4: Let's move on to the Cone main event and our

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Speaker 4: fight of the night.

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Speaker 3: Between Alexa Grosso and Macy Barbara Grosso plus one sixty

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Speaker 3: Barber minus one eighty five. Grosso does have a win

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Speaker 3: though in this matchup from twenty twenty one. She took

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Speaker 3: a unanimous twenty nine to twenty eight over Macy.

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Speaker 4: Barber in that matchup.

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Speaker 3: I didn't go back and look at what the line

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Speaker 3: was in that fight, but Barber is five years younger.

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Speaker 3: When that first fight occurred, she was twenty two. Grosso

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Speaker 3: was in her prime at twenty seven. Now, Grosso kind

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Speaker 3: of at the end of the prime age curve at

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Speaker 3: thirty two for woman's flyweight. Barbara just sort of entering

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Speaker 3: that prime age curve for the woman's one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty five pound division. She is the better grappler here.

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Speaker 3: I would expect her to force the issue, force the

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Speaker 3: fight into the clinch, look to get on top and

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Speaker 3: see if she's able to out physical Grosso as she

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Speaker 3: tends to do against most of her opponents. Barber, excellent

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Speaker 3: cardio and excellent physicality, is just going to keep pushing

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Speaker 3: forward until she's able to get the fight where she

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Speaker 3: wants it. Grosso is certainly the more technical fighter, but

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Speaker 3: the physicality, the strength, the power is all going to

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Speaker 3: be coming from the Barber's side, in my opinion, the

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Speaker 3: bigger cage, it does help Grosso. If this was in

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Speaker 3: the smaller cage, I'd be really confident about Barber's chances.

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Speaker 3: But even at about minus one point eighty I show

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Speaker 3: value on Barber's money line. You could also potentially combine

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Speaker 3: it in the same game parlay. It's minus one thirty

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Speaker 3: five with the over one and a half rounds. I

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Speaker 3: think that's an interesting angle just because Barber should have

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Speaker 3: more success later in the fight. In the second half

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Speaker 3: of the fight. I think she may even lose that

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Speaker 3: first round and you could find a better live entry

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Speaker 3: on her. But by the midway point of the second round,

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Speaker 3: I think she should be taking over, and it's possible

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Speaker 3: given the pace that she's going to push that she

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Speaker 3: could get Grosso out of there in the finals seven

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Speaker 3: and a half minutes of the fight. But fine with

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Speaker 3: the money line, Billy I know is as well. He's

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Speaker 3: on Barber here up to about minus two hundred. Billy,

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Speaker 3: you'll have a breakdown for this fight up on actionwork

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Speaker 3: dot com. What did you see in terms of the

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Speaker 3: matchup and aside for the money line, what else are

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Speaker 3: you looking at betting?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the biggest thing for me is that

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Speaker 1: that first fight was Barber's first fight back from tearing

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Speaker 1: many ligaments in her knee against Roxy Motor Fairy. I

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Speaker 1: say it, you know, anytime there's an option, I really

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Speaker 1: want to be fading fighters in their first fight coming

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Speaker 1: back from an injury and then taking them in their

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Speaker 1: next fight and getting a better price. And Macy's undefeated

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Speaker 1: since that, since that break from injury. She's also seemingly

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Speaker 1: through all the health issue, the you know, nondescript health

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Speaker 1: issues that she ran into and pulled out of the

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Speaker 1: Landfield fight.

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Speaker 5: She's making weight.

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Speaker 1: I guess we don't know she's made weight for this

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Speaker 1: fight yet, but made weight against Kariney Silva in her

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Speaker 1: last fight, won that fight pretty cleanly, despite Silva blatantly

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Speaker 1: following her a couple of times getting away with it,

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Speaker 1: and she was able to power through that, which made

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Speaker 1: me feel good. The biggest thing here stylistically, though, is

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Speaker 1: the ceiling for Grasso is kind of dancing around her

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Speaker 1: and doubling up on jabs and barely winning minutes on

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Speaker 1: the feet, and the ceiling for Barber is more power

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Speaker 1: on the feet or a takedown and then a bunch

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Speaker 1: of damage on the ground. She's really good at turning

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Speaker 1: takedowns into ground and pound and damaged. And there might

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Speaker 1: be some close rounds here, but the moments from Barber

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Speaker 1: just can be so much bigger than the jab jab

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Speaker 1: you know, teep or jab jab light right hand that

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Speaker 1: she's getting coming back at her. I actually wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: shocked if Barbara got a finish here. I was really

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Speaker 1: tempted to throw her in. It didn't get quite a

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Speaker 1: good enough price because I wasn't confident between ground and

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Speaker 1: pound versus mission. Kind of like we were saying with

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Speaker 1: someone last week. I'd be confident a finish comes on

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Speaker 1: the ground, but how she gets it on the ground,

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Speaker 1: it's harder to narrow down. So I took Barber minus

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Speaker 1: one seventy a little bit earlier in the week. Money

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Speaker 1: has continued to climb, come in on her and make

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Speaker 1: that price climb, as you alluded to, I'd be good

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Speaker 1: to minus two hundred. I don't hate the live angle.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not extremely confident that we'll get a better

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Speaker 1: price on Barber. If we do, by all means, I

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Speaker 1: would take it. I'm just not sure that that materializes.

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Speaker 3: Move on to our favorite underdog section for this week.

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Speaker 3: We've got a number that are going to bleed into

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Speaker 3: the prop section as well, but we do have one

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Speaker 3: consensus underdog that we'll get to you before we get there.

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Speaker 3: But let's start with a couple that I like. That's

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Speaker 3: Landscapson Junior at about plus two sixty against Chase Hooper.

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Speaker 3: Very interesting matchup here because Gibson is the better wrestler,

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Speaker 3: Hooper the better grappler. But if Gibson is able to

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Speaker 3: use his wrestling to deny Hooper's grappling and keep the

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Speaker 3: fight on the feed, I think plus two sixty is

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Speaker 3: going to look like a very wide money line. We

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Speaker 3: talked about gibsonbody made a short notice UCA debut against

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Speaker 3: Bobby Green, firm belt fighter but also the son of

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Speaker 3: a former UFC fighter and the steps on of Julia Budd,

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Speaker 3: former Bellator champion. I think he's extremely well trained. Not

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Speaker 3: sure how high his potential is as a prospect, but

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Speaker 3: the line does seem quite wide considering his skill set

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Speaker 3: relative to Chase Hoopers and in general, underdogs have just

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Speaker 3: been getting killed in the UFC this year, and I

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Speaker 3: feel like Normally this line would be closer to plus

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Speaker 3: two hundred or plus one fifty, and I feel like

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Speaker 3: we're getting a little bit extra tax juiced into the

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Speaker 3: Chase Hooper money line as people were probably looking to

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Speaker 3: parlay one of the more popular UFC fighters this weekend,

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Speaker 3: Billy Gibson against Hooper in the lightweight division. Did you

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Speaker 3: break this one down at any bets you like here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I was met a different podcast parents earlier in the week,

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Speaker 1: and I said that Hooper probably should win this one,

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Speaker 1: but I can definitely see how he doesn't because you

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Speaker 1: never feel good having money on Chase Hooper in a

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Speaker 1: standout fight, which could very well happen with Lance Gibson Junior.

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Speaker 1: So what I did is saw that you had a

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Speaker 1: Gibson underdog play in here and went and used him

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Speaker 1: in a ton of my DraftKings DFS lineups because it

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Speaker 1: is a horrible week to try to get achieve fighters

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Speaker 1: and I was kind of leaning that way, and then

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Speaker 1: I saw that you had it, so that will be

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Speaker 1: my exposure to Gibson.

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Speaker 5: It's just mainly all of those lineups.

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Speaker 1: And then last thing, this is an extremely niche reference

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Speaker 1: that like I'll be lucky if any listeners get but

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Speaker 1: Lance Gibson Jr. Looks exactly like a younger version of

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Speaker 1: the West Coast Rapper Merz.

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Speaker 5: So if anyone is a Merz.

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Speaker 1: Or Felt fan, google like Google imagearch Merz and lands

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Speaker 1: Gibson Jr. And I am not sure that there are

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Speaker 1: different people other than that Mers is like well into

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Speaker 1: his forties.

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Speaker 3: Not, hey, is it? It's not any rz Atti spell

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Speaker 3: you are sorry em yours? Yeah, I'm not not familiar

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Speaker 3: with Mers.

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Speaker 1: I came in the jewel freshed off at tool with

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Speaker 1: kids jumping on me as my bags into the floor.

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Speaker 5: I missed the spotlight, but I missed my wife born.

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Speaker 4: But no what the mic.

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Speaker 5: We might wind up fin the ridge from the spot

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Speaker 5: because they give me when I get home, you know.

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Speaker 4: But I do see the Landskipson Junior is much cooler hair.

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Speaker 3: I guess gives it. He gives us to keep it

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Speaker 3: tight because he's in a cage. He can't have people

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Speaker 3: falling on it. So if he had it out of

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Speaker 3: the out of the braids, they might look a little

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Speaker 3: bit more similar.

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Speaker 4: If you made the too right.

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Speaker 1: You don't want a bunch of dreadlocks that add two

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Speaker 1: or three pounds to the to the skett.

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Speaker 3: Is true, you may have to cut off the hair

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Speaker 3: if he ends up being close in weight as well.

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Speaker 3: I feel like Julia Budd kept her hair super tight too.

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Speaker 3: She's probably the one doing the breeding for Lance, so

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Speaker 3: that would make a lot of sense. Let's move under

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Speaker 3: a consensus underdog of the week, and this might even

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Speaker 3: be my best bet of the card. That's Adrian yan

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Speaker 3: Yees against Ricky Simone. We thought it was Yanes for

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Speaker 3: a long time, but he does pronounce it as though

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Speaker 3: there is a Tilda over the end, even though it

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Speaker 3: is not there. But yan Yees always been one of

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Speaker 3: my favorite fighters. I love his boxing. We haven't really

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Speaker 3: gotten to see him display the jiu jitsu very fully either.

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Speaker 3: That is his base, that's where he started at MMA.

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Speaker 3: Even though he has phenomenal hands, great boxing. The question

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Speaker 3: is whether he can wrestle with Ricky Simon heir because

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Speaker 3: some has been one of the more proactive wrestlers during

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Speaker 3: his UFC career, typically shoots about ten takedowns per fight,

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Speaker 3: but the activity level has been dropping in his recent bouts.

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Speaker 3: He's trying to swing for the fences a little bit

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Speaker 3: more against opponents it seems like he's gaining power as

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Speaker 3: he gets older, which is not not uncommon, you know.

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Speaker 3: I know that from baseball, guys like kind of gain

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Speaker 3: power into their young thirties. Other skills slips, speed slips,

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Speaker 3: but as you age, power does tend to improve. So

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Speaker 3: I'm not surprised to see Ricky Simone starting to knock

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Speaker 3: dudes out as he gets a little bit later in

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Speaker 3: his career. But Yanya is extremely durable. Simone extremely durable.

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Speaker 3: I think this one is probably going all fifteen minutes,

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Speaker 3: and I think judges are going to have to weigh

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Speaker 3: Simone's control and his takedowns against the boxing damage that

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Speaker 3: Adriane is going to land.

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Speaker 4: So I like this one to go all fifteen minutes.

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Speaker 3: As I said, Yanya is on the money line at

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Speaker 3: plus one thirty and his decision number at plus three forty.

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Speaker 3: I make that closer to plus two hundred. I believe

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Speaker 3: also the goes to the decision was a pretty solid

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Speaker 3: number as well. I feel like it might be like

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty or minus one seventy, and I make

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Speaker 3: it closer to minus two fifty. So I'm expecting a

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Speaker 3: close and competitive decision between these two. But Yanya is

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Speaker 3: to potentially get the nod on the striking damage in

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Speaker 3: the better boxing, Billy, do you see it playing out similarly?

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Speaker 3: Do you think these two likely fight to a competitive

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Speaker 3: decision and it's the damage against control that ends up

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Speaker 3: Gat getting laid same.

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Speaker 1: Dynamic I was mentioning with Barbara and Grosso, where you

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Speaker 1: know Ricky has to basically win every minute of a

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Speaker 1: round to eventually get the round where Yanyas can do

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Speaker 1: it much quickly, you know, in one or two big moments.

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Speaker 1: Ricky's him on the last fight he landed a takedown

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Speaker 1: in was against Cameron Smotherman, three takedowns, nine minutes of

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Speaker 1: ground control time, two strikes on the ground. He had

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Speaker 1: nine minutes of control time and landed two strikes with them.

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Speaker 1: So just one of those things where you can get

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Speaker 1: all those and get all that control. But ev Adrian

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Speaker 1: gets up and punches him three times on the feet

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Speaker 1: in the last minute of the round. He probably ends

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Speaker 1: up stealing the round back. And to your point about

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Speaker 1: the you know goes to a decision, Yanyas is like

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Speaker 1: minus one sixty minus one seventy on DraftKings in the

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Speaker 1: finish only money line, So they're telling us if there's

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Speaker 1: a finish, it's probably him, and we think a lot

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Speaker 1: of close rounds are gonna be tilted his way just

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Speaker 1: due to the style. So pretty easy underdog pick there.

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Speaker 1: And I will say I'm, you know, spoiling the article

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Speaker 1: for those gonna read it. But John Lonfranca took this

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Speaker 1: full preview for us this week and he's also on

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Speaker 1: adrianianyas you'll be able to read that Friday afternoon or

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Speaker 1: evening from John. So this is a rare three way

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Speaker 1: consensus underdog pick that we're all seeing the same way.

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Speaker 4: Love that.

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Speaker 3: Let's get onto a fight though where we are head

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Speaker 3: to head before we move on to the prop section.

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Speaker 3: Not necessarily had to head. But if I'm picking a side,

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Speaker 3: it would be opposite of you in the fight between

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Speaker 3: months for ab doom a leak and U s three

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Speaker 3: belle Gory a doom a leak about minus one twenty

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Speaker 3: Bellagoria closer to plus one ten. You want plus one

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Speaker 3: twenty or better though on belle Gory here if you're

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Speaker 3: gonna jump in a bet, so what did you see

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Speaker 3: in this match at Belgory sixty six months Sore six

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Speaker 3: to two with an eighty inch reach should be potentially

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Speaker 3: a very exciting striking fight. How did you break this

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Speaker 3: one down? And is plus one twenty like a firm

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Speaker 3: price target for you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, pretty firm.

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Speaker 1: That's been a weird one in terms of the line

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Speaker 1: movement because initially everything was going to Usree and it

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Speaker 1: looked like we're going to see plus money on Abdul Malik,

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Speaker 1: and then things kind of zigged and zagged back a

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Speaker 1: couple of times. I think there's more people know Manser

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Speaker 1: Abula Malik. They were on the same season the Contender series.

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Speaker 1: Abdula Malik has four fights in the UFC. Belgory just

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Speaker 1: has the one, so I think like there's just a

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Speaker 1: little bit more public recognition. But belle Gory beat Alex

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Speaker 1: Peda in a kickboxing match. He also lost to himployees

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00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 1: and now trains with Pejeda and Glover Tech share out

360
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Speaker 1: in Connecticut, clearly following that same game plan. But he's

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Speaker 1: getting to MMA younger. He's still only thirty three. It's

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Speaker 1: not super young, but you know, middleweight thirty three fights

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Speaker 1: into his UFC run is not horribly old or you know,

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Speaker 1: beaten up like Po ten was when he got here,

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Speaker 1: and I just don't trust Abdul Malik to grapple enough, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: he's got two takedowns in the UFC officially across four fights.

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Speaker 1: He's good at it, but he seems more interested in

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Speaker 1: winning exciting fights on the feet, and that's a really

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Speaker 1: bad idea against like a highly skilled and technical glory kickboxer.

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Speaker 1: So with all that said, I'm pretty firm I'm wanting

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Speaker 1: like plus one twenty or so on U three. He

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Speaker 1: might also be a good live piece if Abdul Malik

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Speaker 1: is going for takedowns early and doesn't get him, or

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Speaker 1: if he you know, shoves him against the fence and

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Speaker 1: just sticks them there for a minute or two. Not

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Speaker 1: a great plan in the big cage and over an

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Speaker 1: extended period, but he could win a first round with

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Speaker 1: some cage push and stuff and then give us a

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Speaker 1: better entry point. Do you have a price target on

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Speaker 1: Abdul Malik? Because that one has also moved a lot,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if you already put in a bat

382
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Speaker 1: or waiting for a certain number to come up on

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Speaker 1: that side.

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Speaker 3: I make a minus one forty, but that is an

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Speaker 3: initial projection. I still update these things one more time

386
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Speaker 3: after weighans you know, one final data point check. So

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Speaker 3: I may end up evening out in terms of where

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Speaker 3: it is. But right now I make a minus one forty.

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Speaker 3: I'd probably bet it up to minus one thirty, which

390
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Speaker 3: I think is about where the market is. I prefer

391
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Speaker 3: minus one twenty. You'd prefer plus one twenty. So I

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Speaker 3: think we're of a similar mindset. We just want opposite

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Speaker 3: sides of the fight. And again my projection might change

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Speaker 3: depending upon the new data points. And also you know,

395
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Speaker 3: when you're on the opposite fight side of a fight

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Speaker 3: that I don't have a particularly confident take in, I'm

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Speaker 3: going to size it small, if anything, so potentially a

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Speaker 3: small bet on Monsur for me here, potentially not, potentially

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Speaker 3: a bet for Billy if Belgarie gets to plus one

400
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,439
Speaker 3: twenty potentially not. But always like to break down the

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00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,200
Speaker 3: angles that we actually see on a given week before

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00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 3: we move on. Don't forget to sign up for Action

403
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,880
Speaker 3: Pro for real time pick alerts from experts like Billy Whirt, myself,

404
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 3: and our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access

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00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 3: our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive

406
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Speaker 3: year of Action Pro. Before we continue with Marioc, here's

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Speaker 3: a quick word for myself about our sponsor, DraftKings. The

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Speaker 3: crown is yours And with that we're going to move

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Speaker 3: on to the DraftKings Top props of the week here

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Speaker 3: on our UFC betting preview. So Billy's got a prop

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Speaker 3: that he's gonna give out in the Julian Rosa Larry

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Speaker 3: On Douglas fight, which is only available at DraftKings domestically.

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Speaker 3: That is the point spread at Julian Rosa plus five

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Speaker 3: and a half points at plus one seventy five. I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna go a step further once Billy's done with his analysis,

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Speaker 3: But Billy, I would imagine taking the point spread. Do

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Speaker 3: you think the finish equity is wayed more toward Rosi

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Speaker 3: here at nearly plus three hundred.

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Speaker 1: It's not that I think he's going to get a finish.

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Speaker 1: I just think he can survive this against Larry and Douglas.

435
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 1: I thought Douglas was great, like I rated him highly

436
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 1: coming into the Connender series.

437
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 5: He knocked out a guy who I really.

438
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 1: Didn't think much of in Camtigue in like thirty seconds,

439
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,719
Speaker 1: which doesn't tell us much. He is not some like

440
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 1: massive I'm going to finish you in the first round mauler.

441
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 1: The way that that fight implied, which I think is

442
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 1: why we're getting the price. Not so much on the

443
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,880
Speaker 1: money line here on Douglas, but in terms of the

444
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 1: markets all expecting a finish and then you extrapolate out

445
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,639
Speaker 1: from there, well, if Arosa can make it you know,

446
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 1: tough UFC veteran had like I think seventeen fights in

447
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: the UFC or something crazy like that, does a pretty

448
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 1: good job hanging in there. Has fought a much higher

449
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 1: level of competition if you can make it the whole way.

450
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: All he needs to do is convinced. I believe on

451
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 1: the plus seven and a half one judge that you

452
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 1: won one round to cover that, and we're getting plus

453
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: money on all of that. So like that angle of it,

454
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 1: you could go fight goes to a decision as well,

455
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 1: and I think get a better price. But then you're

456
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 1: cutting off the odds of Aroso winning inside the distance,

457
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 1: which again isn't hugely likely, but UFC veteran been in

458
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 1: their lunch, I believe it. Erosa is a Northwest area guy anyway,

459
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 1: This is kind of a home game for him. Not

460
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 1: one hundred percent sure on that, but somewhere out that area.

461
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: So all things considered, I expect him to out. Yeah,

462
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 1: Warren Yakima, Yakima, Washington, sorry to Washington natives. I don't

463
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: know if I'm saying that right, but all things considered,

464
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: I think the price should be closer. It would not

465
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 1: shock me if Douglas wins, you know, twenty nine to

466
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: twenty eight or thirty twenty seven on one of those scorecards.

467
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 1: But I don't have the guts to go full on

468
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: juicy j money line like you do. Tell me why

469
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 1: you think he's going to outright win this.

470
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the price is certainly overbaked, and I

471
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 3: think part of it is the fact that Eros has

472
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 3: been knocked out seven times in his career, and also

473
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 3: the brutal Contender series knockout for Douglas. But as you

474
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 3: point it out, Ros is the much more well rounded veteran.

475
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: I mean, he has some elite submission abilities, especially when

476
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: he's able to work his front choke. Series is the

477
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 3: hometown fighter as well, and I believe he's the bigger

478
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 3: man too. I just want to pull up the measurables here.

479
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 3: He is two inches taller with a two inch reach advantage.

480
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 3: Actually he's four inches taller, five inches taller, six to

481
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 3: one against five to nine with the two inch reach advantage.

482
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 3: Also southpag against Orthodox we don't always talk about it here,

483
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 3: but Southpauss typically South Pau against the Orthodox. South Paul's

484
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 3: went about fifty five percent of the time just by

485
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 3: nature of being left handed and giving the right handed

486
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 3: fighters different looks than they're typically accustomed to. So a

487
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 3: lot going for Julian ros in this matter, including the price,

488
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 3: which is nearly three to one. The difference in age

489
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 3: is about six years. That is the main concern for me.

490
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 3: Douglas just the younger, more durable athlete. But I do

491
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 3: show value both on a ROSA. I make his money

492
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 3: line about plus one eighty five, so plus two ninety

493
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 3: five certainly a bet down to about plus two hundred.

494
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 3: The point spread interests me too, but I'd actually probably

495
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 3: prefer to combine at Rosa in the over one and

496
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 3: a half rounds. I think the over one and a

497
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: half is plus one thirty five. He goes to decision,

498
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 3: also a value bet for me two. I think that's

499
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: north of three to one, and I make it closer

500
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 3: to plus two hundred. So completely agree with Billy both

501
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 3: on a Rosa as the point spread. Bet a Rosa

502
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: on the money line, and then the over one and

503
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 3: a half rounds, so that goes to decision being the

504
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 3: value sides of the total in this featherweight matchup. We're

505
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 3: gonna move on to another fight where I kind of

506
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: like the underdog, though I think the entry point for

507
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: Kyle Nelson is certainly live after round one because we've

508
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: seen Terrence McKinney have finish most of his opponents in

509
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 3: round one. Nearly all of his wins I believe, have

510
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 3: come in round one, except one which came a minute

511
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 3: into round two, and he should have a big physicality

512
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 3: advantage over Kyle Nelson here. He tends to run over

513
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 3: all of his opponents early, but we do see the

514
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 3: cardio and the physicality fade pretty quickly for McKinney. He's

515
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 3: the bigger man. Well, he's an inshorter, but he is

516
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 3: a two inch reach advantage and significantly more power, significantly

517
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 3: faster than Kyle Nelson. He's also the better grappler.

518
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 5: Two.

519
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 3: We see McKinney when he wants to, and he doesn't

520
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 3: do it often because he knows that it drains his

521
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 3: gas tank. But when he wants to, he immediately shoots

522
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 3: that takedown and is often able to get to the

523
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 3: back of his opponents pretty quickly and look to sink

524
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: in a rear naked choke. So well rounded, Terrence McKinny

525
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 3: a lot of ways of finishing opponents in round one,

526
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: but the gas tank after five minutes is absolutely tragic,

527
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: and I think Nelson after five minutes is worthy of

528
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: a live entry. Billy, you're gonna take McKinney with that

529
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: round one finish angle, the method you like him to

530
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 3: get it done with.

531
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 4: What would you specifically bet? And then are you coming

532
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 4: in with a live bet on Nelson if he's there

533
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 4: after five?

534
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 5: Yeah?

535
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: I mean it's every Terrence McKinney fight. He actually so

536
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: you said early in the second round. He has a

537
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: heel hook win early in the third round in twenty eighteen,

538
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 1: way before he made it to the UFC. Would love

539
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: to find video on that fight. I've actually tried a

540
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: couple of times. I'm not sure that it exists. I

541
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: just seeing Terrence McKinney go to a stool twice and

542
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: come back out and then he'll hook a dude just

543
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: seems impossible. Like I'm I'm almost wondering if it was

544
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: somebody else who had that fight and they like wrote

545
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: the results down wrong. That's not the Terrence McKinney we know.

546
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: Since he's been in the UFC, the longest he has

547
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: had a win last is two minutes and eleven seconds.

548
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: So he hasn't even won a fight in the second

549
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: half of round one.

550
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 5: He's capable of.

551
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: Losing early as well, but usually he loses late first round,

552
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: early second. So every Terrence McKinny fight, you can do

553
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 1: McKinney round one, or if you want to get fancy

554
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: dksgp McKinney and under half of around. He's never won

555
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 1: a fight in the second half of the round. And

556
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: then you got to be really quick on the live

557
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: betting against him or on his opponent, in this case Nelson,

558
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: because you might not get them going back to the stools,

559
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: or by the time they get back to the stools

560
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: McKinney had looked so horrible that he's then you know,

561
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: plus five hundred, and the guy you wanted to lie

562
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,479
Speaker 1: bet is minus eight hundred. So the correct option is

563
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: Kyle Nelson two ish minutes into the fight, or whenever

564
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: McKinney lands a punch or takedown that doesn't lead to

565
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: a finish, like if he has one moment, you go, okay,

566
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: is he finished? Nope, he's gonna survive. Get the bet,

567
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 1: and then you'll get a great price if you time

568
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: it perfectly. But easier said than done. Between the tape

569
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: delay and the fact that we're trying to do it

570
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 1: mid round.

571
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 3: Drafting is one of the few books that lets you

572
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 3: bet the point spreads. But also I don't see the

573
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 3: under half around SGPS everywhere. What was the payout on

574
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 3: McKinny in under half a round?

575
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 5: Well, I don't know. I did not actually look that

576
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 5: up yet here.

577
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stall just a second so i'll be able

578
00:26:55,960 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: to find it. It's not gonna be great because DraftKings

579
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 1: and everyone else knows, right, we know what's going on again.

580
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 5: Oh plus three forty.

581
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: Okay, it's better than I thought it would be because

582
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: that like there should be his money line, like he's

583
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: never done anything else. So yeah, I'm amending my bat.

584
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: Thank you for asking that question. Tarre's mcinnie and the

585
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: under half round SGP at plus three forty is that's awesome?

586
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 1: That's what you want to bet here?

587
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, you could have some of that pre fight and

588
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 3: then looked about Nelson live after two and a half

589
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 3: three minutes we saw even the Drew Dover fight, McKinny

590
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 3: trying to finish that fight, like completely gassed himself out

591
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 3: by the two and a half minute mark round one,

592
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 3: So it's really a question of how hard he goes,

593
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 3: how hard he has to go. We've never really seen

594
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 3: him try to pace himself or survive to a second

595
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: not survives to a second round, but like elongate the fight,

596
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 3: make sure he doesn't gas out. So maybe at some

597
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 3: point McKinney ends up doing that, but nothing to this

598
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 3: point is.

599
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 4: Really suggested that he will.

600
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 3: In fact, it was the bon Theime fight, I believe,

601
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,239
Speaker 3: where he tried to come out with a little bit

602
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 3: more of a measured game plan and ended up having

603
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 3: nothing for the second round and got finished. That was

604
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 3: two fights after the Dover fight. Yeah, he got finished

605
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 3: with flying k me in the second round, but the

606
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 3: first round I remember, he was not nearly as aggressive

607
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 3: in that fight, and he still kind of gassed out anyway,

608
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 3: and then yeah, it's that fight finished. He ended up

609
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 3: going right back through his old game plan. So we

610
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 3: have seen him try to be more measured. It didn't

611
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 3: really work. I'd imagine you get the same Terrence mckinniy

612
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 3: in this fight that you typically see.

613
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 5: You also, I'll jump in there.

614
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 1: They extended his contract like this was his last fight

615
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: and they've already signed him to an extended contract, which

616
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: if you're Terrence McKinney, You're like, oh, that is an

617
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: endorsement of how the way I've been doing things. And

618
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: now that the bonuses are one hundred K, you know,

619
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: Terrence McKinny is gonna be trying out, trying a little

620
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: bit harder. Never won a performance bonus, which is weird

621
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: to me for a guy who finishes all of his fights.

622
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: Early I would have said he had like four or

623
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: five if I wasn't looking at this right now. Good

624
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: time to get your first one is when it's one

625
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: hundred K instead of fifty though, So Terrence McKinney's going

626
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: to do Terrence McKinney's stuff. That's the only way he

627
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: knows how to be. And then we'll see, you know,

628
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: if that leads to a win or just him getting

629
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: finished in the second half of their.

630
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 3: On another reason why I'm glad they have the guaranteed

631
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 3: finishes bonuses now, I mean, he is the lightweight record

632
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: for quickst knockout against Matt Ravola. He made weight for

633
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: that fight, Like, why didn't you get a performance bonus

634
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 3: because Dana wasn't watching the prelims, Like it's it's terrible

635
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 3: the way they build that.

636
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: Back looking at what else was on the card too,

637
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: I don't maybe it just worked out in a way

638
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: that that's all sure correct, But yeah, that seems surprising.

639
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, when you go back through the history performance bonuses,

640
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: they tend to give them to the more popular fighters

641
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 3: who are already making more money anyway, not the fighters

642
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 3: who could actually use the money, who were fighting lower

643
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 3: down on the frems. That always bothered me. I'm glad

644
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: that finishes guarantee a bonus now, but also in the

645
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 3: guaranteed finish bonus era, it seems like fighters are fighting

646
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 3: more conservatively than ever. So I don't I expected, you know,

647
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 3: a ramp up and aggression of anything, and we've gotten

648
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 3: quite the opposite. And the number and relative number finishes

649
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six. Had our first good fight really

650
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty six, I would argue last week, and

651
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: we're already late here in March. It was quite a banger.

652
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 3: I'm already blanking on the names.

653
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 1: Mason Jones, Yeah, Ax solo real quick though. The event

654
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: where McKinney had his seven second knockout had Paul Craig

655
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: break Jamal Hill's arm and then like basically beat him

656
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: with his arm and also Brandon Moreno submit Davy Figgs

657
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: and the Comaine as the two so like that one

658
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: actually is kind of justified like a quick knockout school,

659
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 1: but that Paul Craig finished with legendary and very funny

660
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: Jamal Hill for like going out on his shield and

661
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: allowing that to happen, because if he just taps to

662
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 1: a regular arm bar, we have forgotten that fight.

663
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 5: But because of how it went down.

664
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 3: So almost knocks Paul Craig out on the ground with

665
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 3: one arm, that was it was an extremely funny ending.

666
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 4: The ref had to step in there because this is

667
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 4: arm was just kind of flopping around.

668
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 3: That was one of the grosser but also like in hindsight,

669
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 3: one of the funnier endings, just just just funny to

670
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: watch his arm flopping. I felt very bad for it

671
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 3: in the moment, but now that we know he's fine,

672
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 3: it was really gross. He looked like he had a

673
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: rubber arm. I'll just I'll never forget that image, like

674
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 3: in my head off him sitting in Paul Craik's guard

675
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 3: with his arm just kind of like dangling, like going

676
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 3: and like it was like helicoptering his arm is just

677
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: like helicoptering.

678
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 4: It looked like there was no bones in it. That

679
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 4: was disgusting.

680
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 3: It was like one of the worst things I've ever

681
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 3: seen that was arguably worse than the Widemin leg injury.

682
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 4: Widemin leg injury was horrific.

683
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: I think I remember the the broken arm for Jamal

684
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 3: Hill worse, don't. I mean, my wife can't even watch

685
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 3: UFC bouts anymore after the Wideman leg injury because that

686
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: happened during the heid of COVID when there were no

687
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: other sports on. So I feel like there were a

688
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 3: lot of people who don't normally watch UFC who were

689
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 3: tuning in who happened to see the Chris Wideman leg injury.

690
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 3: So I've kind of maintained that, aside from the Kevin

691
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 3: ware Louisville injury in the Final Four, that the Chris

692
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 3: Widman leg injury is like one of the most widely

693
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 3: viewed live sports injuries of modern times. I think there

694
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 3: were so many people tuned into that fight who normally don't,

695
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 3: And yeah, wife can't even wife can't even watch like

696
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 3: leg kicks or CAF kicks anymore. She cringes as they

697
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: happen because she's just waiting for it.

698
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 5: To happen.

699
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: So anyway, we'll move on to an old guy fight

700
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 3: like that chris My and Uriah Hall fight between Michael

701
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 3: Kis at minus six hundred and Nico Price at plus

702
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 3: four twenty hes at the local guy.

703
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 4: Could be his potential retirement fight.

704
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 3: Not necessarily sure about that, confirmed it okay, So a

705
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 3: big favorite in his retirement fight could be a double

706
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 3: retirement fight with Nico Price as well. Price, I believe

707
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 3: is not officially announced it, but I would have assumed

708
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: he would have retired a couple of years ago at

709
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 3: this point. Guess is the older man the much better

710
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 3: grappler here averages five takedown attempts for five minutes, has

711
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: completed nearly half them in his career, and Price has

712
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 3: given up half of the takedown attempts against him. So

713
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: you should see a pretty obvious path for Michael Kisa

714
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: to be able to get the wrestling. The question is

715
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: whether he's able to get to the back and finish

716
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 3: the fight. I do like him to do, so I

717
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 3: make his inside the distance ods about minus one eighty.

718
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 3: You can bet him at minus one fifty. He's never

719
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 3: finished the fight via TKO, so I'd imagine there may

720
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: be some motivation to go for the ground and pound finish,

721
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: but generally speaking, he's looking for the neck jokes to

722
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 3: end up finishing with. And I believe that is the

723
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 3: specific angle that you like for this fight, Billy. I'm

724
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 3: not sure if you able to find a line on

725
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 3: Kisa to win by dars, but that is how you

726
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: like him to finish the deco Price. So did you

727
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 3: find a number for that specific method prop and if not,

728
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: how are you plan it?

729
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 5: Yeah? Not yet.

730
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: Those usually go up pretty late. But I mean it's

731
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: been his achilles heel his whole career. Right's befallen the

732
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 1: dars like three times anytime he's doing commentary, somebody gets

733
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: threatened with the dars and everyone teases him about it.

734
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: How poetic would it be in your hometown. You've already

735
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: announced your retire and you're going out on top. You

736
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: finally slay the dars dragon, lock one up on Nico Price,

737
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: a guy who really can't grapple and doesn't have any

738
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: interest in learning how to do it, and you get

739
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: that dars choke, and you just get the monkey off

740
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: your back and go out with a big win performance bonus,

741
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: and then you just walk right over to the desk

742
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: and you call the comaane and main event, which is

743
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 1: really what I'm hoping he does. Just kick Bisbane or

744
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: DC or whatever out of his chair and just Kissa,

745
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: just take over, interview yourself in the octagon after you

746
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 1: know it'd be great. I'm a big Michael kiassa guy.

747
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 1: I like that he's retiring one of his last three fights.

748
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 1: Doesn't seem like he has to retire. To the point

749
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: on Price, I believe they announced he was cut, like

750
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 1: I think I got the roster tracker meet after his

751
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: last loss. But then when Kiyosa's original opponent fell through,

752
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: They're like, you want to do one more, Nico, We'll

753
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,959
Speaker 1: give you one more shot at it. He knows the time,

754
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 1: like he's not being brought in here to look good

755
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: against a home time beloved figure who's going out. He's

756
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 1: here to lose to retiring guy, just like he did

757
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 1: against Robby Lahler. So I don't think that Nico Price

758
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 1: will retire. I think we probably don't see him in

759
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 1: the UFC after this unless he pulls off a miracle.

760
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: Upset like your angle, anyone who heard me, I'm no

761
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 1: best barred with Jed mischue Jed is all about Kiyosa.

762
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: I get his first career knockout in his last career fight,

763
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: so that's a fun angle too.

764
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 5: That was as high as like plus twelve hundred.

765
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 1: So these are all just for fun picks for me,

766
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 1: But I want to have some interest in Michael Kiyoso.

767
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: It just seems like a great dude and retiring the

768
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: right way such that you can do that to slay

769
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: one of those one of those beats, either the knockout

770
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 1: or the Dars choke in his final fight.

771
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 3: So you're telling, I mean you goo prized by Dars

772
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 3: at two hundred to one or higher is probably the

773
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 3: actual play, considering Kiyosa always gets caught. Oh god, yeah, yeah,

774
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 3: I'm glad to hear Jed say that he likes the

775
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 3: Kisa knockout angle. That's why I was leaning towards the

776
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 3: inside the distance as opposed to Kisa by submission, even

777
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 3: though you have to pay substantially more juice for the

778
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 3: inside of the distance odds, it just does seem like

779
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 3: you want to get a t Ko stoppage on the

780
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 3: record before he ends up hanging them up. Any other angles,

781
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 3: by the way, you mentioning the Nico Price Robbie Lawler

782
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 3: fight remains one of the more suspect knockouts, one of

783
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 3: the more awkward quick knockouts I think in recent UFC memory.

784
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: I'm still not sure Price actually got KOed by that shot,

785
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 3: but no way to prove it.

786
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 4: No, we will ever be able to prove it. Billy.

787
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 3: We're gonna move on here to Navahos Sterling against Brunal

788
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: Lopez because I do have one prop here that I considered.

789
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 3: It's not one that I'm necessarily sure I'm gonna play

790
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 3: because it does seem very much like the Kisa fight

791
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 3: that they're setting up. Nava host Sterling is a minus

792
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 3: six hundred favorite to get a UFC knockout against Brunel

793
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 3: Lopez because Sterling, I believe you've had to pay minus

794
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 3: money two fights ago for him to win inside the distance.

795
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 4: I'm not sure what the price was last time.

796
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 3: I think has skipped it, but he just hasn't been

797
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 3: able to get it done at the UFC level. Did

798
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 3: finish his opponent on Contender Series. I believe this seems

799
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 3: like the UFC trying to hand him a highlight real care,

800
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 3: and if he's not able to do it, they may

801
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 3: start matching him up a little bit softer, or potentially,

802
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: you know, consider not matching him up softer, throwing him

803
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 3: against the wolves to see, like how good this dude

804
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 3: actually isn't giving him a significantly tougher matchup rather than

805
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 3: continuing to match him up soft and gift him wins.

806
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 3: So he hasn't gotten the knockout yet. I make his

807
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 3: decision prop about plus one eight I think, and you

808
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 3: can get as high as plus three twenty five on

809
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: Navo hoos Sterling to win by decision against brunol Lopez.

810
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts here? Do you think Sterling gets

811
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 3: the knockout? Do you trust Brunolpez to potentially survive here

812
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 3: and make it another decision win for Sterling?

813
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:42,439
Speaker 5: No, I like your prop here.

814
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: It's not that he's unable to get a knockouts that

815
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: he's just not going to force it. He's going to

816
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 1: take the most direct path to a win rather than

817
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: sell out trying to get a finished. For those who

818
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: don't know, Sterling trains with City Kickboxing. He has kickboxing background,

819
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 1: so he's you know, he's on the card because he's

820
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: the main event, right that came over together save money

821
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 1: on coach is whatever. He's outstruck opponents by more than

822
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 1: double in his UFC career accounting contender series, more than

823
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 1: two to one significant strike ratio. He's really good and

824
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 1: he's hard to hit, and he's just not gonna sell

825
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: out to try to finish you unless you're giving it

826
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 1: to him, right, unless you're leaving those counters open. Lopez

827
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: might be a guy who does it, but I think

828
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: Slash hope that they give him a tough opponent after this.

829
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 5: One way or the other. He's not super young.

830
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: He's coming up on twenty nine in the fall, so

831
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: getting into the prime has beat some lower level competition.

832
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 1: I'd love to see Sterling against don't know, abduam Maliks

833
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: middleway to say someone of that level, right, you know,

834
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 1: another young guy and that come up. Let's see what

835
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: we got here. But I think the decision is sharp.

836
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 1: Lopez should probably just try to wrestle and hope for

837
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: the best, try to spend his little time on the

838
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: feet as possible. Easier said than done. But he got

839
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 1: five takedowns two fights ago against a guy who's last

840
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: amends in AUE and doesn't have a mustache, so it

841
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 1: seems like you should be able to wrestle Navo's sterling

842
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: at least a little bit. So given the price that

843
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 1: we're getting, I think you put plus three twenty five

844
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 1: on the decision.

845
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 5: I think that's a really sharp blood.

846
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, you con bet that goes to the decision in

847
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 3: that fight potentially as well at a nice big plus

848
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 3: money number. Those are top props for this weekend's UFC card,

849
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 3: presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. We do have

850
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 3: a consensus. It's a final bet for me. It may

851
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 3: be a best bet for Billy, but a moneyline favorite

852
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 3: edge on Tyrell Fortune at about minus one thirty five

853
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 3: going against the Marching Tybera. Tybera in my model, an

854
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 3: extremely popular underdog selection this week. Everybody is familiar with

855
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 3: Marching Tybera. Everybody's probably won a bet our Marching Tybera

856
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 3: at plus money at some point. But he is forty

857
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 3: years old now. I didn't think he looked very good

858
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 3: in his recent fights either. He typically tends to survive.

859
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,839
Speaker 3: He tends like to play rope dope with opponents. Now

860
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 3: at this point of his career, he just gets beat

861
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: up in the first round and if he's able to

862
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 3: survive After five minutes. He leans on opponents, grapples them

863
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 3: a little, and he's able to take over. Fortune is

864
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 3: short notice here. I'm not fully sure about what his

865
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: gas tank looks like, but I do think given the

866
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 3: speed advantage, the athletics is an advantage, and just how

867
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 3: decrepit you know Tiber's physicality looks, especially in the first

868
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 3: five minutes of his fight at this point of his career,

869
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 3: I think Fortune likely finishes him rather quickly, but happy

870
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 3: to take the money line at minus one thirty five

871
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 3: in the event that we get another awful heavyweight decision here,

872
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: I make him closer to minus one fifty. I'd probably

873
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 3: bet him up to about minus one forty, but we

874
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 3: didn't go much pass where it is currently. Billy, is

875
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: this the best bet or final bet?

876
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 4: And where do you like Fortune up to?

877
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 1: It's a final bet, and in my notes I had

878
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 1: this one as Zarillo massed, meaning to myself, I noticed

879
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: that the money line is going towards Fortune, even though

880
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 1: most picks are on Tiber, which isn't even like a

881
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 1: thing I go out of my way to look for.

882
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: But when it's as drastic as it is here, I go,

883
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 1: oh yeah, yeah, but it's a guy coming into the

884
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 1: UFC who people don't know as well. He's like a

885
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: two time junior college national champion wrestler, that is Tyrell Fortune,

886
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 1: and Tiber just looks so slow against Anti Delia, and

887
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: the corollary to that is Delhia hasn't looked great since then,

888
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: so it tells us more about Tiber. At the time,

889
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: I was like, maybe Anti Delhi is just really that good,

890
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 1: and looking back on what we've seen since, I was like, no,

891
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 1: Tiber is just getting that slow, and he just doesn't

892
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: have the I'm gonna grapple easy button against a two

893
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: time national champion wrestler, and also not that short notice

894
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 1: of a fight he's had like three weeks or something.

895
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: Pretty much, this whole card is replacement opponents for somebody.

896
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 1: If you scroll down to the bottom of the typology

897
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,439
Speaker 1: that canceled and fizzled bouts, is like, as long as

898
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: the actual fights, this one isn't horrible. It's supposed to

899
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 1: be Tiber versus Walter Walker, which I would have loved

900
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 1: just because surely surely you can't heal hook Marcine Tiber

901
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 1: for your fifth one in a row. But yeah, well,

902
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: we'll see who they get Walter Walker instead. I like

903
00:41:56,600 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 1: Fortune similar price point. Also like overs here or Fortune

904
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 1: and over anything like that. If no one gets finished

905
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: in the first two minutes, they probably don't get finished

906
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 1: at all. It's just gonna be one of those heavyweight

907
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: lean on each other against the cage fights.

908
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 3: One other potential final bet that I was looking at

909
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 3: for this weekend is Casey O'Neil in a pick them

910
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 3: five minus one ten against Gabriella Fernandez. They're the same height. O'Neil,

911
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,280
Speaker 3: though has a three inch reach advantage, and she's also

912
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 3: four years younger. She's the more efficient striker, which I

913
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 3: was surprised to see. The significantly more efficient striker, and

914
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 3: she also has the better grappling control rates. I'm surprised

915
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 3: to find that this fight is around to pick them.

916
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,919
Speaker 3: I guess it's beag due to O'Neill's in activity. She's

917
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 3: only fought once in the past three years she had

918
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: multiple ACL tears. But I do think she is the

919
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 3: better grappler here and will ultimately prove that being able

920
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,439
Speaker 3: to put the fight where she wants to do, whether

921
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 3: that's keeping it standing or getting on top of Fernandez.

922
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 3: So minus one ten is where it is currently. I'd

923
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: probably take it up to about minus one twenty. Likely

924
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 3: not a significant bet, but taking King Casey O'Neill against

925
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 3: Gabrielle Fernandez, Billy, do you have any thoughts or takes

926
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:06,439
Speaker 3: on this fight.

927
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 5: Yeah.

928
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: Casey O'Neil is a considerably better, more skilled fighter. She

929
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: also alternates fights and ACL tears effectively. If you go

930
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: and look at her Wikipedia, it's like torn ACL one

931
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 1: fight O'Neill, non disclosed injury, one fight, O'Neil withdraws one fight,

932
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 1: and then she hasn't fought in almost two years because

933
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 1: she had another knee surgery. I don't know that it

934
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: was specifically ACL, but she posted something on Instagram about

935
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: knee surgery since we've last seen her.

936
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 5: One hundred percent should win. I'm just not getting involved in.

937
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 1: I don't want my money riding on Casey O'Neil's knees

938
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: at this point in her career. So we talked about

939
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 1: earlier with Barbara. Barbara had the one and figured it out.

940
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of studies on like women's

941
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: basketball and soccer players, the rate of knee injuries is

942
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 1: much higher than for men. He's anecdotally based on this card.

943
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 1: That seems to definitely also be the case in MMA,

944
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: because just between Barbara and O'Neil, I think there's been

945
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 1: more ACL tears the whole rest of the card combine.

946
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've done studies into it.

947
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: My sister unfortunately tore one ACL and then had a

948
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 3: compensation injury in her another other knee and made me

949
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 3: curious about why women hear their acls more. It's due

950
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 3: to like the hip positioning, the angle that it causes

951
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 3: on the knee that just men tear their MCLs more frequently,

952
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 3: women to their acls more frequently. It's just the physical

953
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 3: nature and the makeup of our bodies. Fascinating to look

954
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 3: into when I actually studied it and like figured out

955
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 3: why it occurs. But yeah, it's an unfortunate thing, and

956
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:36,280
Speaker 3: I mean it's probably going to limit Barber and O'Neill's careers.

957
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 3: Like that knee pain as you get into your thirties

958
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 3: is not going to improve. They have changed the method though,

959
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 3: for how they do the ACL repairs. They used to

960
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 3: graft it from you and then you eventually need like

961
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 3: a knee replacement anyway in your forties. Now they in

962
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 3: the past, like ten years or five years, they change

963
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 3: the method by which they do the ACL surgery, and

964
00:44:57,840 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 3: I think it like strengthens and is able to maintain

965
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: for a lot longer. So we have seen an upgrade

966
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 3: in ACL repair technology is the larger point there in

967
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 3: the past ten plus years. Learn that from talking to

968
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 3: my sister who's unfortunately Gona ended up needing new replacements

969
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 3: because she had it with the old method. So that

970
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 3: sucks if you had an ACL replacement before. They ended

971
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 3: up changing how they do it because it does seem

972
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 3: much sturdier now. A couple fights that we didn't get

973
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 3: to on this card though, women straway boat between Alexia

974
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 3: and Tanara and Bruna Brazil. Tyinara enters on an eleven

975
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,760
Speaker 3: fight winning streak since she lost to Brazil in twenty nineteen.

976
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 3: Bruno Bieder via standing eighteen, but Tayanara was just twenty

977
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 3: one years old at the time. Obviously remains the younger fighter,

978
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 3: but again closer to her physical peak, whereas Brazil is

979
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:46,399
Speaker 3: maybe nearing the wrong side of the divisional age curve.

980
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 3: I didn't have any bets here. I mean, Tanar is

981
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 3: a minus seventy fifty favorite The Questionabilly is whether or

982
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 3: not she finishes Brazil after Brazil got her the first time.

983
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 4: What do you think?

984
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was tempted to take Bruna Brazil point spread

985
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 1: based on you know, probably gonna be a grappling fight

986
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: she can get you only getting plus one forty at

987
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 1: DraftKings on that, so it's gonna pass. The only interesting

988
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: thing here is this fight was originally Nicole Kelliari versus

989
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 1: Carol Fourro, and it's sometime mutated into Alexa Tanna versus

990
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:19,320
Speaker 1: brun in Brazil Foro pulled out, Kalliari was then supposed

991
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 1: to fight Stephanie Luciano, Luciano pulled out, it was gonna

992
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 1: be Kelly Rivers Tayanara, and then Kalliari pulled out entered

993
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: Brune in Brazil. So like, I have no idea how

994
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 1: prepared either woman is for this fight, how long they've

995
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 1: known they're going to be on the card.

996
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 5: Just there's too many unknowns here.

997
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: If we were getting a big price on Brazil's point spread,

998
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: I go with it. I also will point out she

999
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: has alternated wins and losses and showing up on the

1000
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: Contender series, and it's coming off a loss. So the

1001
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 1: Brune and Brazil trend is on her side this time

1002
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 1: at plus five hundred, but it actually doesn't work that

1003
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 1: way even a little bit, so I'm staying away from this.

1004
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is not Mingshi or she Man. This is

1005
00:46:56,040 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 3: a much different and more difficult opponent. I feel you

1006
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 3: always have a bet on Ignacio Bohamondez, so surprised to

1007
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 3: see you didn't have a proper any angle on him

1008
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:08,320
Speaker 3: this weekend against Tuffiq Musaiav. He's the bigger man, sixty

1009
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 3: three seventy five inch reach. He's also eight years younger,

1010
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:14,439
Speaker 3: but we've seen him, you know, potentially get out worked

1011
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 3: by shorter guys who can mix in the grappling a

1012
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 3: little bit.

1013
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:18,799
Speaker 4: Musaiav.

1014
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if he's going to be able to

1015
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: get the takedowns, but he will reliably wrestle. We saw

1016
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 3: him land takedowns of Patresia Pitbull when they fought over

1017
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 3: and Risen. He's thirty six years old, so you know,

1018
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 3: Cardio the gas tank, if he does proactively wrestle, may

1019
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 3: not be there. And Bahamondez is coming in on short monus,

1020
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 3: which does alleviate those cardio concerns to a degree, so

1021
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,439
Speaker 3: no value for me, no projected value on either side

1022
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 3: of this fight. Bahamonda's about minus three hundred, Musaiah about

1023
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 3: plus two point fifty. Do you see any path for

1024
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 3: the underdog here, Billy.

1025
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 1: Like I want to say, they're both coming in on

1026
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 1: short notice, like this was a fight that got thrown

1027
00:47:58,840 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 1: together one.

1028
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 5: I'm both. I'm not one hundred percent sure on that.

1029
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:02,399
Speaker 5: Don't hold out.

1030
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,320
Speaker 1: I do have an angle it is I am doing

1031
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 1: my climb for the week. Is Nacio Baha Mondes minus

1032
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: three hundred? A little bit risk here for those who

1033
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,760
Speaker 1: don't follow Jedmschu's creation, it is trying to string together

1034
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 1: like twenty five minus five hundred wins in a row

1035
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 1: where you roll over the bankroll every time.

1036
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 5: No one does it.

1037
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:21,759
Speaker 1: It's impossible. You're not going to do it, especially in

1038
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 1: mma where crazy things can happen. But it is a

1039
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 1: ton of fun. And I'm restarting one since I was

1040
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 1: on his show this week, and it will be Baja

1041
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 1: Mondez just to get it going.

1042
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 3: Defite was supposed to fight Samuel Sanchez. Initially, Baja Mondez

1043
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:38,879
Speaker 3: was brought in is the replacement for Sanchez. He did

1044
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 3: not have an originally scheduled about on this card, So

1045
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 3: unlike the Tainara Brazil fight, which is a what are

1046
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 3: we both doing here? Fight because none of either of

1047
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 3: them were originally supposed to be on this card, this

1048
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 3: fight was originally Tofique's scheduled date. Baja Mondez is the

1049
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 3: recent edition, but he is a big favorite as well.

1050
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 3: That'll cover all thirteen fights on this week's card. Billion

1051
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 3: any final thoughts before we get out of here.

1052
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: No other than I guess watched the weigh ends because

1053
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 1: with all these short notice fights, there's going to be

1054
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 1: the rate of change is going to be higher than

1055
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 1: it normally is. And yeah, it'll be fun to see

1056
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 1: that bottom canceled and fizzled bout section on topology expand

1057
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: even further when somebody misses weight by four pounds because

1058
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 1: they just heard about the fight last week.

1059
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I believe there's already been seven canceled bouts on

1060
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 3: this card. The Tyber fight we didn't mention, but his

1061
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: opponent is coming in on short notice. Tiber was initially

1062
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 3: supposed to face Walter.

1063
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 5: Walter, Oh, you.

1064
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 3: Did mention that you had a hill hook, so that'll

1065
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:41,919
Speaker 3: do it for this week's UFC Betting preview. You can

1066
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 3: find more U betting content from both Billy and myself

1067
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 3: on Action network dot com or in the Action Network Gap.

1068
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 3: And if you'd like to instantly tell some of the

1069
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 3: bets that we discussed on today's show, look for the

1070
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 3: quick slip link both in the podcast and video description,

1071
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 3: or visit Action Nework dot com slash bet now. Don't

1072
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,280
Speaker 3: forget to download the free award winning actionworkap and signer

1073
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 3: for Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks and analysis.

1074
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 3: You don't get that thirty minute delay, fast of all,

1075
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: walk with all your bets this weekend, enjoy the violence.

1076
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 4: Thank you for listening.

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Speaker 3: See you back here next week on the Action of

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Speaker 3: Work podcast presenter by Drafting.

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Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 4: hundred Gambler