WEBVTT - Trump’s Ukraine Plan Faces New Obstacles After Putin Call 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:07.040 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:13.000 This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.000 --> 0:00:17.639 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:22.560 and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business finance 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:26.279 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Weekdaily 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:31.480 Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:33.839 All right, everybody, we are getting ready to kick off 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:36.519 another year with geopolitics front and center. Now, keep in 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.320 mind that President Trump today saying quote, there has to 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.040 be a disarming of Hamas as he met with Israeli 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:44.960 Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo on this Monday. The 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.560 two did me to talk about the ceasefire in Gaza, 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.920 whose troubled opening months ago are stoking concern that regional 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.480 fighting could resume in the new year. We did see 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.560 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Israeli Prime 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.920 Minister talking about regional security, economic co operation, and the 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:04.200 fight against anti Semitism during that meeting today That came 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:05.520 from the State Department. 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.440 But it sounded like there was a handful of issues. 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.440 Vannie, I known you were covering the event when President 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.800 Trump made a few comments on this, but also a 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:15.520 lot of other things. The reporters asked about a lot 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:15.800 of things. 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.959 But it sounds like it's not quite done yet. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.679 No, And yeah, as you say, President Trump literally said, 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:25.080 there were five major subjects that we were discussing, and 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:26.800 the Gaza was one of those subjects and it was 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:28.840 a tough place. But you know, he wants to get 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.919 to phase two of that deal. But it doesn't seem 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:34.840 like Nanyao was comfortable moving off of phase one yet. 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.520 But of course Venezuela came out, Brussia, Ukraine a lot around. 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.679 So with that said, let's talk a little bit more 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:44.000 about that. 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:45.840 Yeah, well we'll talk about you know, that is certainly 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:47.800 on our radar. But let's get to also the war 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:51.560 between Russian and Ukraine. This is the other geopolitical issue, 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:53.600 if you will, that's certainly on our minds. It's getting 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:56.400 very close to the beginning it's fifth year. President Trump 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:59.240 held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier today. 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:00.960 That was according to the Light House, and that came 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.960 one day after the US leader met with his Ukrainian counterpart, 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:08.600 President Voladimir Zolenski. They talked about efforts to bring halt 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:12.080 to the Kremlin's war. President Zelenski said he asked President 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:15.200 Trump for US security guarantees lasting as long as half 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:18.280 a century to help deter any future Russian invasion. 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:23.480 We discussed all the aspects of the peace framework, which 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:27.280 includes and we have great achievements to any point piece 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:31.600 plan ninety percent degree and grade security guarantees, one hundred 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:35.040 percent degree in the US, Europe Ukraine security guarantees almost 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:39.920 degreed military you mensioned one hundred percent degree prosperity plan 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:40.919 being finalized. 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:45.560 That, of course is Ukrainian President Voldemir Zelenski. That was 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:48.720 yesterday after a meeting with President Trump. Hey, let's get 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.840 into this and what's going on with you the United 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:55.520 States involvement between the Russia and Ukraine war. Doctor Angelas 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:57.560 Stent is back with us. She's senior fellow at the 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.959 American Enterprise Institute, author of Putin's World, Russia Against the 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:04.000 West and with the Rest, a former national intelligence officer 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:06.600 for Russia and Eurasia. As we said at the National 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:10.560 Intelligence Council, she understands the situation so much. 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:11.960 Great to have you back with us. 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.720 Angela, I am shocked that we're going into or getting 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:18.760 very close to going into the fifth year of this war. 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:22.800 What are you seeing, if anything, that tells you we 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.240 are getting maybe closer to an end or not. 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:31.840 Well, we've had very furious negotiations going on now for 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:37.080 the past few months with Russia, between certainly a Stephen 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:41.000 Dkoff Jared Krishna meeting with Putin, and then with a 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:46.000 President's Landski meeting with President Trump meeting with European leaders. 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:49.240 We have two i think competing peace plans out there. 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:53.400 The twenty eight point peace plan which was leaked a 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:56.240 few weeks ago and which sounded as if it had 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.120 been largely written in Moscow, but it was a joint 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:03.000 US Russian peace plan. This would have been unacceptable to 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:05.440 the Ukrainians and really to the Europeans. 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:07.760 And then we now have apparently a. 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:11.600 Twenty point peace plan which was agreed between Ukraine, It's 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:16.560 European backers, and I think the United States, which cuts 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.080 back on some of the compromises. 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:21.479 That Putin was demanding that Zelenski make. 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.200 Zelensky yesterday of course did say that ninety percent had 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:27.600 been agreed, but I think it's the last ten percent 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:32.120 that's very problematic. Putin called President Trump before he met 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:36.400 President Zelenski. They've had another conversation, and I think the 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:39.159 Russians are going to string this along. But we still 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:43.520 have no real indication that Vladimir Putin is interesting in 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:44.480 stopping this war. 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:46.360 You know, angel, I feel like we've talked about this 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:49.440 so much, and you know it does sound like President 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.480 Putin he wants land. I mean, he got it the 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:56.080 first time that he invaded Ukraine, and he wants it 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.599 again this time around. Is there any chance he backs 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.560 off of it, because this is what seems to be 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:03.520 really a major sticking point. 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:06.440 Well, he wants the land, but the land is a 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:09.479 means to what he really wants, which is a subjugation 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.200 of Ukraine. So when he talks about we have to 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:14.520 get to the root causes. Yes, he would like the 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:17.400 whole of the Donbass region and is asking Ukraine to 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:20.800 give Russia land that Russia doesn't control, but that's just 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:22.960 a means to an end. It would make Ukraine more 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:26.720 vulnerable if the war breaks out again, and he wants 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:29.680 Ukraine to say that it's going to remain neutral, that 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:34.039 it's not going to join any Western alliance systems that's 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:37.320 what he really wants, and he's using the land question 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.480 and in a way to distract from what the broader 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:41.200 goals are. 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.000 How much is there a time constraint here, doctor Stener, 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.320 because you know there are elections, I mean, there's elections 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.160 coming up in Ukraine, and obviously at some point look 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.080 at the mid terms here, and then at some point 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.640 after that there may or may not be a change 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.760 of leadership. Is Putin focused on things like that. 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.880 Well, Putin's demanded elections in Ukraine, but of course there 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.719 can't be an elections in Ukraine unless the fighting has stopped, 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:07.240 and you have to have a ceasefire first, and Putin 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:09.680 has not agreed to a cease fire. Yes, we happened 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:12.960 in terms coming up here, and a majority of Americans 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:16.560 now and more Americans support Ukraine and are much more 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:20.280 wary about what Putin is doing, and that includes Republicans 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.600 not only in the Senate, but Republicans in the rest 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.479 of the country. So I don't think Putin feels any 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:30.400 time constraints, but the Ukrainians do because they are running 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:33.839 out of manpower. They do have manpower problems. They need 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:37.839 more weapons, and the US is selling weapons to the 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.880 Europeans who are then giving it to Ukraine that there's 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:44.400 not an infinite supply of those weapons. So and we 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:47.640 have winter coming up now it's already upon us. That 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.120 could be more difficult for the Ukrainians. The Russians are 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:55.640 bombing all of their energy infrastructure and depriving them of 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:57.040 heat and light and things. 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:57.760 That they need for the winter. 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.600 So I would say the Ukrainians under our under more 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.760 time constraints than the Russians are. But they're not losing 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.360 this war as the Russians claim they are, and they 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.480 have taken back some territory recently that the Russians claim 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:12.320 that they hold. But certainly Putin believes that time is 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:13.280 on his side. 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:17.680 The security proposal under discussion, it's apparently for a fifteen 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.160 year term. Zelenski wants that to be a lot longer, 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:21.840 perhaps as long as fifty years. 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.720 Will he get it, Well, we're. 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:28.000 Not really clear what those security provisions are. I mean, 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:32.080 Europeans are willing to provide troops to enforce any kind 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:34.440 of peace. The US has said that there'll be some 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:39.080 kind of backstop. They've talked about Article five type guarantees, 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:42.080 which is what NATO countries have, which means if one 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:44.640 NATO country is attacked, the rest of them were. 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:46.600 Considered that an attack on all of them. 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:49.400 But it's very hard to see how you get those 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:52.200 kind of guarantees if Ukraine isn't a number of NATO. 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.120 And again, you know, we could have a different government 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.280 in the United States, you can have different governments clearly 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:01.200 in Europe that from the elections coming up. 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.000 So I think a fifty year. 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:07.360 Guarantee is probably unrealistic, but one understands why Zelensky wants 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.880 it because you know this, as long as Putin's in power, 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:13.280 people like him, they're not going to give up on 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:14.440 subjugating Ukraine. 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.840 That said, they could be another reinvasion in the coming. 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.440 Years, Angela, Is it clear what the US position is? 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:24.760 Especially after President Trump was asked in the earlier press 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:28.800 conference when Benjamin Neett Yahu and he were together, President 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:30.640 Trump said he was very angry when he heard from 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:34.520 Russian President Vladimir Vladimir Putin about an alleged attack on 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.280 one of his residences. Again, allegations were not quite sure. 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:41.040 I believe Ukraine has maybe denied this, but I'm just curious, 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:45.040 is it clear where the US stands? Or is that 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:48.480 part of the negotiating tactic of being kind of friend 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:51.320 and foe and it changes maybe from week to week 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:51.960 or day to day. 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:54.960 Well, what's clear is that Trump wants to improve ties 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.560 to Russia. He's wanted to do that since they wanted 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:01.440 the second term. That he's offering the Russians economic incentives 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:04.040 which he thinks may bring them round. 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:06.679 He does want to bring the war to an end. 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:08.720 I think he genuinely wants to end the war, and 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:10.920 then he also wants to claim credit for it. 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:13.880 But you know, yesterday he said some things. 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:19.800 He equated the Russian bombing of Ukrainian civilian structures, energy 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:25.080 infrastructures with the Ukraine, the Ukrainians sometimes hitting Russian energy 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:29.000 installations and so. And then he also said yesterday that 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:33.760 Putin wanted Ukraine to succeed, which is a rather extraordinary 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:36.199 thing to say, since they've been making more on Ukraine, 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:38.000 you know, for nearly. 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:38.559 Five years now. 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.960 So I'm not sure what the US position is, but 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.760 I do think that Trump administration wants the war to end. 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:46.840 All right, ten or fifteen seconds, I'm not going to 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:48.280 ask you about the House on this, but do you 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.680 think we wrap up this war. Does it get wrapped 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:51.839 up in twenty twenty six? 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:53.840 Just quicktly? 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:54.560 I could? 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:56.480 I wish it could wrap up. I'm not sure that 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:57.079 it will. 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:01.760 Doctor Angelistan, thank you so much much. Doctor Anjela sent, 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.880 a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:08.960 of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the Rest. 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:10.520 Stay with us. 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:13.560 More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this. 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:21.000 You are listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch 0:10:21.080 --> 0:10:24.320 us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.520 Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.280 Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:33.880 Hey, we want to stay with all of the geopolitics 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.920 that continue to come at us. Henrietta Trace is with us. 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:40.440 She's Beta Partner's managing partner. She's also director of Economic Policy. 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:42.760 She also served in the US Senate as a tax, 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.679 banking and finance legislative assistant, so she understinks from the 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.080 understands the private and the public sector. 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:49.040 She's done a lot. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.720 Henrietta, good to have you back with us. I do 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.079 want to go domestic, but first I've got to go global. 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:58.319 The President's spending a lot of time on foreign affairs. 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:03.160 What is is this important in terms of the US 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:06.400 economic situation, the US business environment going forward? 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:10.920 You know, I think what's clear from that press conference 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:13.400 and what we saw from Zelensky's meeting today, and then 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:15.840 to tie it into China, as the President did earlier, 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:18.880 even on the China front, with all the three of 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.400 these instances, with the US trade deal with China, the 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:28.280 negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and the Gaza and Hamas 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:32.040 and Israel situation, is that there's got to be devils everywhere. 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:33.120 There's devil is in the. 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:35.559 Details, and we don't have any details. 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:36.920 There are no. 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:37.920 Hard and fast details. 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:39.319 The President wasn't able. 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:41.679 To give any of them, neither on the Abraham Accords 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:45.280 or as you just mentioned, on the West Bank. On timing, 0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:48.439 there's daylight between net Yahoo and Trump, and I think 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:50.960 there's a lot of daylight between Zelensky and Putin. 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:52.640 To say the very least, and there's a lot. 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:54.719 Of daylight between the US and China on just our 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:56.920 terms of trade deal. So I think it's pretty clear 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.280 that all this is going to drag into twenty twenty six, 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:02.680 and the President is extremely occupied with these issues. The 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.840 issue for the President and then therefore for the Republican 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:09.120 Party down ballot, is that Americans are not focused and 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.400 they don't even have in their top ten issues that 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:14.360 they care about foreign policy going into next year's mad 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:16.439 term elections. What is it to tie in the foreign 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.079 policy part? Is really interesting for the president to double 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.920 down like this on these issues which are obviously important 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:24.480 to him but are not making forward progress and don't 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.120 impact the US consumer war voter. 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:27.920 I love that you went there, and certainly for the 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:31.120 global investing you know audience, this can matter right in 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:34.320 certain terms of opportunities or relationships. But having said that, 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:36.640 when it comes to the midterms, which will also be 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:40.360 important to financial markets, and what more of the President's 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.320 agenda he can get done in the second half of 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:47.040 this second term for him, So this focus is surprising. 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.680 Do you think he shifts in the new year. I 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:50.760 think he tries to do both. 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:52.880 You know, he's tried to do both in the first year, 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:54.640 where he did the one Big Beautiful bill which was 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:58.000 very economically oriented three and a half trillion dollars in 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.600 deficit increasing tax cuts Prince of to corporations in twenty 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.280 five with some of it coming for individuals in twenty six. 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:06.599 I think the Republican Conference and the President feels like 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.400 they've done their job on the economy and now we 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:10.880 need to wait and let it work out. That's certainly 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:12.880 what they're hoping for going into next year. 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:14.440 The trade or. 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.360 Rather the tariff dividend that the President touts is four 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:19.760 hundred and fifty billion dollars of money he's not going 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:22.480 to get out of Congress to send home to the 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:26.920 American public, So there's not another physical package coming from DC. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.560 He has to keep an attention on other things while 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.400 touting the one big beautiful bill because there's not going 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:35.839 to be another piece of legislation that passes. 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:36.480 In twenty twenty six. 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:38.720 In my opinion, Hey, what that's going to keep the 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:39.400 issue a lot. 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:41.240 Well, And the other thing like just kind of blown 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:42.680 away by some of the notes that you guys shared 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.199 with our team. The most controversial view BETA has going 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.120 into twenty twenty six is that when Scotis rules on 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.199 those tariffs, that they rule against them, the President will 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.920 not quickly move to replace them with new authorities, as 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:57.080 he and his economic advisors insist. But he would say 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.640 that Scotus would be handing the president a domestic gift 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.560 by breaking down the tariffs, which equate to about eighteen 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:06.000 hundred dollars per house household at their current levels. 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.880 Do you expect Scots to strike them down? 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.079 Yes, I do, and I think I'm in a pretty 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.280 good company on that one. As you know, the courts below, 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.360 the Court of International Trade and the Court of Appeals 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:19.160 have both rejected it. My odds are sixty five percent 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:20.680 that the Supreme Court's rejected it. 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:22.920 I'm hopeful that they do it in the first quarter. 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.840 And get this binary event, three trillion dollars binary event 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.160 off our backs. But the single best thing that could 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:32.160 happen to this administration and again to Republicans down ballot, 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:35.600 is for the president to get the tariffs revoked by 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.760 the Supreme Court. He doesn't have to admit failure or 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:39.760 anything along those lines. 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:40.360 You can to say the. 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.360 Supreme Court won't let me do it, and then just 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:46.200 not migrate too. Three three eight or Balance of Payments 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:48.520 Authority or two thirty twos or three zero ones. They're 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:50.600 going to be threatened. But look at the ones that 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.960 have already been threatened and aren't yet on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors. 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:56.840 Where's the Critical Minerals investigation? It was supposed to be 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:58.960 released on the twenty seventh. It might be on the 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.760 President's desk, but he's clearly sitting on it. And that's 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.840 because he can't afford to have prices continue to rise 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.080 by imposing new tariffs, especially on those items. 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.880 So I think it's the best. 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.360 Case scenario for this president for the Supreme Court to 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.440 take the tarriffs down. That would clear the dominimus tariffs, 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:20.040 that would clear all the AIPA retaliatory tariffs, and give 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:23.320 the President the ability to take a more nuanced approach 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.280 to trade instead of the blunt. 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:26.640 Acts that was Liberation Day. 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.280 And I go one step further if I may, and say, 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:32.840 if he takes the opportunity to reimpose all these tariffs, 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.600 it's going to be so confusing for small and large 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.240 businesses alike. It will be the equivalent of Liberation Day 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.920 two point zero. You can't just swap them out, so 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:42.560 you know, prepare for equl forth again. 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:44.720 Well, that means it's going to be an interesting twenty 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.960 twenty six, no doubt about it. Whichever way it goes. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.480 Henrietta always enjoy getting some time with you. Henrietta Trey's 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:54.280 Vita Partners managing partner and director of Economic Policy joining 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:54.880 us here. 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:00.560 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen each 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.560 weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.480 and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:09.680 also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:13.160 York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.720 Well, from the fintech sector to the commodity space, we're 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.080 seeing a major pullback. Well, I would say, you know, 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.080 modest pullback really in gold and silver, but the two 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:24.040 medals did top records earlier this week. 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:25.360 I mean, they just went on a tear. 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.960 Here to break down the recent moves, Mike mcgillan, senior 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:32.840 commodity strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Mike, how much of 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:34.920 all of this was just pure speculation? 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:38.240 Just about all of it, I think, Vonnie, when you 0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:41.600 get to these extreme levels, particularly in thin markets, with 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.720 things like gold and particularly silver. 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:46.840 Silver is known as the Devil's medal for a reason. 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:48.920 But they're up so much this year. 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.480 Silver, as we've both you mentioned, we've noted a lot 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.360 it's the best year since nineteen seventy nine for both 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.400 of those medals, and history has proven when you rallied 0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:00.120 this velocity. My rule as a strategist, as I take 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.880 off that fundamental technical outlook, I switch over to a 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:06.320 money manager. I say, typically new long seat. These levels 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:10.119 do very poorly. So give you example. Silver settled nineteen 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.439 seventy nine at thirty two dollars and twenty cents an ounce, 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.359 and the first end of the year to close above 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:18.840 that level is this year, twenty twenty five. 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:20.600 It's been a long time, almost fifty years. 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.639 What's driving the trade and the selloff? Is it a 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:27.720 supplied demand metric? Is it investors looking to move assets 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:29.720 around a safe haven place. 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:31.359 Certainly when it comes to gold, what is it? 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:35.040 Because I know supply demand can often be a big factor, Mike, 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.680 when it comes to various commodities and precious metals. 0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:41.119 Well, certain hell, okay, certainly carol and silver it is. 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:45.359 But the narratives that they're using now for pulling up 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.120 silver have been around for years. We've all known about 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:51.439 the demand from solar and everything. But to me now 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:53.840 it's in that speculative access in stage. I think people 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:57.280 are realizing it's much more beneficial maybe to allocates to 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:01.120 some precious metals where there's only four versus cryptocurrencies where 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:03.880 there's twenty eight million. As a previous announcer frailed to mention, 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:07.560 there's a nonlimited supply of cryptocurrencies and there's only really 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.359 about ten major medals. So I still think they're going 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:12.200 to do well. The problems they've just gone too far. 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:14.440 So I like to compare to metals now. Was when 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:17.200 the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market in nineteen seventy nine. 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.119 We had a similar pink this year and cryptocurrencies with 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:25.359 mister Trump tilting over from antagonists to zealot and it's to. 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:26.239 Look forward to next year. 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.359 I think there's a good chance things like silver can 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.639 get down to fifty and up two one hundred. But 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:32.880 basically it's the top metal that can go down because 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:35.879 it went up too much, and even gold. Gold can 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:39.399 easily trade down blow four thousand and above five thousand. 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:41.040 But I think it's a top metal. 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.080 They can also drop a little bit, just because they've 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:45.080 gone up so much and there's so much in the 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:45.800 mainstream now. 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:48.000 Mike, a quick word on copper, because we had it 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:51.439 rallying above thirteen thousand dollars a ton in London overnight. 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:53.160 Now came weigh off that price. 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.120 But there are real concerns surrounding copper and its industrial uses. 0:18:56.200 --> 0:19:00.359 Right, yeah, so copper, the main thing is the apply 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.359 constraints this year, it's very rare. Is there going to 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:05.879 be that industrial demand from places like China which is 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:09.480 in a basically recessionary a deflation period. So I look 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.440 at copper as completely dependent on the stock market going 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:15.199 up again next year, and if US stock market drops, 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.320 copper will Tribby drop about twice as much. 0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:19.120 But Copple's also auto correlated. 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.040