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Speaker 3: All right, everybody, we are getting ready to kick off
Speaker 3: another year with geopolitics front and center. Now, keep in
Speaker 3: mind that President Trump today saying quote, there has to
Speaker 3: be a disarming of Hamas as he met with Israeli
Speaker 3: Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo on this Monday. The
Speaker 3: two did me to talk about the ceasefire in Gaza,
Speaker 3: whose troubled opening months ago are stoking concern that regional
Speaker 3: fighting could resume in the new year. We did see
Speaker 3: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Israeli Prime
Speaker 3: Minister talking about regional security, economic co operation, and the
Speaker 3: fight against anti Semitism during that meeting today That came
Speaker 3: from the State Department.
Speaker 4: But it sounded like there was a handful of issues.
Speaker 3: Vannie, I known you were covering the event when President
Speaker 3: Trump made a few comments on this, but also a
Speaker 3: lot of other things. The reporters asked about a lot
Speaker 3: of things.
Speaker 4: But it sounds like it's not quite done yet.
Speaker 1: No, And yeah, as you say, President Trump literally said,
Speaker 1: there were five major subjects that we were discussing, and
Speaker 1: the Gaza was one of those subjects and it was
Speaker 1: a tough place. But you know, he wants to get
Speaker 1: to phase two of that deal. But it doesn't seem
Speaker 1: like Nanyao was comfortable moving off of phase one yet.
Speaker 1: But of course Venezuela came out, Brussia, Ukraine a lot around.
Speaker 1: So with that said, let's talk a little bit more
Speaker 1: about that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll talk about you know, that is certainly
Speaker 3: on our radar. But let's get to also the war
Speaker 3: between Russian and Ukraine. This is the other geopolitical issue,
Speaker 3: if you will, that's certainly on our minds. It's getting
Speaker 3: very close to the beginning it's fifth year. President Trump
Speaker 3: held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier today.
Speaker 3: That was according to the Light House, and that came
Speaker 3: one day after the US leader met with his Ukrainian counterpart,
Speaker 3: President Voladimir Zolenski. They talked about efforts to bring halt
Speaker 3: to the Kremlin's war. President Zelenski said he asked President
Speaker 3: Trump for US security guarantees lasting as long as half
Speaker 3: a century to help deter any future Russian invasion.
Speaker 5: We discussed all the aspects of the peace framework, which
Speaker 5: includes and we have great achievements to any point piece
Speaker 5: plan ninety percent degree and grade security guarantees, one hundred
Speaker 5: percent degree in the US, Europe Ukraine security guarantees almost
Speaker 5: degreed military you mensioned one hundred percent degree prosperity plan
Speaker 5: being finalized.
Speaker 3: That, of course is Ukrainian President Voldemir Zelenski. That was
Speaker 3: yesterday after a meeting with President Trump. Hey, let's get
Speaker 3: into this and what's going on with you the United
Speaker 3: States involvement between the Russia and Ukraine war. Doctor Angelas
Speaker 3: Stent is back with us. She's senior fellow at the
Speaker 3: American Enterprise Institute, author of Putin's World, Russia Against the
Speaker 3: West and with the Rest, a former national intelligence officer
Speaker 3: for Russia and Eurasia. As we said at the National
Speaker 3: Intelligence Council, she understands the situation so much.
Speaker 4: Great to have you back with us.
Speaker 3: Angela, I am shocked that we're going into or getting
Speaker 3: very close to going into the fifth year of this war.
Speaker 3: What are you seeing, if anything, that tells you we
Speaker 3: are getting maybe closer to an end or not.
Speaker 6: Well, we've had very furious negotiations going on now for
Speaker 6: the past few months with Russia, between certainly a Stephen
Speaker 6: Dkoff Jared Krishna meeting with Putin, and then with a
Speaker 6: President's Landski meeting with President Trump meeting with European leaders.
Speaker 6: We have two i think competing peace plans out there.
Speaker 6: The twenty eight point peace plan which was leaked a
Speaker 6: few weeks ago and which sounded as if it had
Speaker 6: been largely written in Moscow, but it was a joint
Speaker 6: US Russian peace plan. This would have been unacceptable to
Speaker 6: the Ukrainians and really to the Europeans.
Speaker 7: And then we now have apparently a.
Speaker 6: Twenty point peace plan which was agreed between Ukraine, It's
Speaker 6: European backers, and I think the United States, which cuts
Speaker 6: back on some of the compromises.
Speaker 7: That Putin was demanding that Zelenski make.
Speaker 6: Zelensky yesterday of course did say that ninety percent had
Speaker 6: been agreed, but I think it's the last ten percent
Speaker 6: that's very problematic. Putin called President Trump before he met
Speaker 6: President Zelenski. They've had another conversation, and I think the
Speaker 6: Russians are going to string this along. But we still
Speaker 6: have no real indication that Vladimir Putin is interesting in
Speaker 6: stopping this war.
Speaker 3: You know, angel, I feel like we've talked about this
Speaker 3: so much, and you know it does sound like President
Speaker 3: Putin he wants land. I mean, he got it the
Speaker 3: first time that he invaded Ukraine, and he wants it
Speaker 3: again this time around. Is there any chance he backs
Speaker 3: off of it, because this is what seems to be
Speaker 3: really a major sticking point.
Speaker 6: Well, he wants the land, but the land is a
Speaker 6: means to what he really wants, which is a subjugation
Speaker 6: of Ukraine. So when he talks about we have to
Speaker 6: get to the root causes. Yes, he would like the
Speaker 6: whole of the Donbass region and is asking Ukraine to
Speaker 6: give Russia land that Russia doesn't control, but that's just
Speaker 6: a means to an end. It would make Ukraine more
Speaker 6: vulnerable if the war breaks out again, and he wants
Speaker 6: Ukraine to say that it's going to remain neutral, that
Speaker 6: it's not going to join any Western alliance systems that's
Speaker 6: what he really wants, and he's using the land question
Speaker 6: and in a way to distract from what the broader
Speaker 6: goals are.
Speaker 1: How much is there a time constraint here, doctor Stener,
Speaker 1: because you know there are elections, I mean, there's elections
Speaker 1: coming up in Ukraine, and obviously at some point look
Speaker 1: at the mid terms here, and then at some point
Speaker 1: after that there may or may not be a change
Speaker 1: of leadership. Is Putin focused on things like that.
Speaker 6: Well, Putin's demanded elections in Ukraine, but of course there
Speaker 6: can't be an elections in Ukraine unless the fighting has stopped,
Speaker 6: and you have to have a ceasefire first, and Putin
Speaker 6: has not agreed to a cease fire. Yes, we happened
Speaker 6: in terms coming up here, and a majority of Americans
Speaker 6: now and more Americans support Ukraine and are much more
Speaker 6: wary about what Putin is doing, and that includes Republicans
Speaker 6: not only in the Senate, but Republicans in the rest
Speaker 6: of the country. So I don't think Putin feels any
Speaker 6: time constraints, but the Ukrainians do because they are running
Speaker 6: out of manpower. They do have manpower problems. They need
Speaker 6: more weapons, and the US is selling weapons to the
Speaker 6: Europeans who are then giving it to Ukraine that there's
Speaker 6: not an infinite supply of those weapons. So and we
Speaker 6: have winter coming up now it's already upon us. That
Speaker 6: could be more difficult for the Ukrainians. The Russians are
Speaker 6: bombing all of their energy infrastructure and depriving them of
Speaker 6: heat and light and things.
Speaker 7: That they need for the winter.
Speaker 6: So I would say the Ukrainians under our under more
Speaker 6: time constraints than the Russians are. But they're not losing
Speaker 6: this war as the Russians claim they are, and they
Speaker 6: have taken back some territory recently that the Russians claim
Speaker 6: that they hold. But certainly Putin believes that time is
Speaker 6: on his side.
Speaker 1: The security proposal under discussion, it's apparently for a fifteen
Speaker 1: year term. Zelenski wants that to be a lot longer,
Speaker 1: perhaps as long as fifty years.
Speaker 4: Will he get it, Well, we're.
Speaker 6: Not really clear what those security provisions are. I mean,
Speaker 6: Europeans are willing to provide troops to enforce any kind
Speaker 6: of peace. The US has said that there'll be some
Speaker 6: kind of backstop. They've talked about Article five type guarantees,
Speaker 6: which is what NATO countries have, which means if one
Speaker 6: NATO country is attacked, the rest of them were.
Speaker 7: Considered that an attack on all of them.
Speaker 6: But it's very hard to see how you get those
Speaker 6: kind of guarantees if Ukraine isn't a number of NATO.
Speaker 6: And again, you know, we could have a different government
Speaker 6: in the United States, you can have different governments clearly
Speaker 6: in Europe that from the elections coming up.
Speaker 7: So I think a fifty year.
Speaker 6: Guarantee is probably unrealistic, but one understands why Zelensky wants
Speaker 6: it because you know this, as long as Putin's in power,
Speaker 6: people like him, they're not going to give up on
Speaker 6: subjugating Ukraine.
Speaker 7: That said, they could be another reinvasion in the coming.
Speaker 3: Years, Angela, Is it clear what the US position is?
Speaker 3: Especially after President Trump was asked in the earlier press
Speaker 3: conference when Benjamin Neett Yahu and he were together, President
Speaker 3: Trump said he was very angry when he heard from
Speaker 3: Russian President Vladimir Vladimir Putin about an alleged attack on
Speaker 3: one of his residences. Again, allegations were not quite sure.
Speaker 3: I believe Ukraine has maybe denied this, but I'm just curious,
Speaker 3: is it clear where the US stands? Or is that
Speaker 3: part of the negotiating tactic of being kind of friend
Speaker 3: and foe and it changes maybe from week to week
Speaker 3: or day to day.
Speaker 6: Well, what's clear is that Trump wants to improve ties
Speaker 6: to Russia. He's wanted to do that since they wanted
Speaker 6: the second term. That he's offering the Russians economic incentives
Speaker 6: which he thinks may bring them round.
Speaker 7: He does want to bring the war to an end.
Speaker 6: I think he genuinely wants to end the war, and
Speaker 6: then he also wants to claim credit for it.
Speaker 7: But you know, yesterday he said some things.
Speaker 6: He equated the Russian bombing of Ukrainian civilian structures, energy
Speaker 6: infrastructures with the Ukraine, the Ukrainians sometimes hitting Russian energy
Speaker 6: installations and so. And then he also said yesterday that
Speaker 6: Putin wanted Ukraine to succeed, which is a rather extraordinary
Speaker 6: thing to say, since they've been making more on Ukraine,
Speaker 6: you know, for nearly.
Speaker 7: Five years now.
Speaker 6: So I'm not sure what the US position is, but
Speaker 6: I do think that Trump administration wants the war to end.
Speaker 3: All right, ten or fifteen seconds, I'm not going to
Speaker 3: ask you about the House on this, but do you
Speaker 3: think we wrap up this war. Does it get wrapped
Speaker 3: up in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 4: Just quicktly?
Speaker 8: I could?
Speaker 7: I wish it could wrap up. I'm not sure that
Speaker 7: it will.
Speaker 1: Doctor Angelistan, thank you so much much. Doctor Anjela sent,
Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author
Speaker 1: of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the Rest.
Speaker 4: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 2: You are listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch
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Speaker 3: Hey, we want to stay with all of the geopolitics
Speaker 3: that continue to come at us. Henrietta Trace is with us.
Speaker 3: She's Beta Partner's managing partner. She's also director of Economic Policy.
Speaker 3: She also served in the US Senate as a tax,
Speaker 3: banking and finance legislative assistant, so she understinks from the
Speaker 3: understands the private and the public sector.
Speaker 4: She's done a lot.
Speaker 3: Henrietta, good to have you back with us. I do
Speaker 3: want to go domestic, but first I've got to go global.
Speaker 3: The President's spending a lot of time on foreign affairs.
Speaker 3: What is is this important in terms of the US
Speaker 3: economic situation, the US business environment going forward?
Speaker 9: You know, I think what's clear from that press conference
Speaker 9: and what we saw from Zelensky's meeting today, and then
Speaker 9: to tie it into China, as the President did earlier,
Speaker 9: even on the China front, with all the three of
Speaker 9: these instances, with the US trade deal with China, the
Speaker 9: negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and the Gaza and Hamas
Speaker 9: and Israel situation, is that there's got to be devils everywhere.
Speaker 10: There's devil is in the.
Speaker 9: Details, and we don't have any details.
Speaker 7: There are no.
Speaker 9: Hard and fast details.
Speaker 7: The President wasn't able.
Speaker 9: To give any of them, neither on the Abraham Accords
Speaker 9: or as you just mentioned, on the West Bank. On timing,
Speaker 9: there's daylight between net Yahoo and Trump, and I think
Speaker 9: there's a lot of daylight between Zelensky and Putin.
Speaker 7: To say the very least, and there's a lot.
Speaker 9: Of daylight between the US and China on just our
Speaker 9: terms of trade deal. So I think it's pretty clear
Speaker 9: that all this is going to drag into twenty twenty six,
Speaker 9: and the President is extremely occupied with these issues. The
Speaker 9: issue for the President and then therefore for the Republican
Speaker 9: Party down ballot, is that Americans are not focused and
Speaker 9: they don't even have in their top ten issues that
Speaker 9: they care about foreign policy going into next year's mad
Speaker 9: term elections. What is it to tie in the foreign
Speaker 9: policy part? Is really interesting for the president to double
Speaker 9: down like this on these issues which are obviously important
Speaker 9: to him but are not making forward progress and don't
Speaker 9: impact the US consumer war voter.
Speaker 3: I love that you went there, and certainly for the
Speaker 3: global investing you know audience, this can matter right in
Speaker 3: certain terms of opportunities or relationships. But having said that,
Speaker 3: when it comes to the midterms, which will also be
Speaker 3: important to financial markets, and what more of the President's
Speaker 3: agenda he can get done in the second half of
Speaker 3: this second term for him, So this focus is surprising.
Speaker 4: Do you think he shifts in the new year. I
Speaker 4: think he tries to do both.
Speaker 9: You know, he's tried to do both in the first year,
Speaker 9: where he did the one Big Beautiful bill which was
Speaker 9: very economically oriented three and a half trillion dollars in
Speaker 9: deficit increasing tax cuts Prince of to corporations in twenty
Speaker 9: five with some of it coming for individuals in twenty six.
Speaker 9: I think the Republican Conference and the President feels like
Speaker 9: they've done their job on the economy and now we
Speaker 9: need to wait and let it work out. That's certainly
Speaker 9: what they're hoping for going into next year.
Speaker 7: The trade or.
Speaker 9: Rather the tariff dividend that the President touts is four
Speaker 9: hundred and fifty billion dollars of money he's not going
Speaker 9: to get out of Congress to send home to the
Speaker 9: American public, So there's not another physical package coming from DC.
Speaker 9: He has to keep an attention on other things while
Speaker 9: touting the one big beautiful bill because there's not going
Speaker 9: to be another piece of legislation that passes.
Speaker 7: In twenty twenty six.
Speaker 9: In my opinion, Hey, what that's going to keep the
Speaker 9: issue a lot.
Speaker 3: Well, And the other thing like just kind of blown
Speaker 3: away by some of the notes that you guys shared
Speaker 3: with our team. The most controversial view BETA has going
Speaker 3: into twenty twenty six is that when Scotis rules on
Speaker 3: those tariffs, that they rule against them, the President will
Speaker 3: not quickly move to replace them with new authorities, as
Speaker 3: he and his economic advisors insist. But he would say
Speaker 3: that Scotus would be handing the president a domestic gift
Speaker 3: by breaking down the tariffs, which equate to about eighteen
Speaker 3: hundred dollars per house household at their current levels.
Speaker 4: Do you expect Scots to strike them down?
Speaker 9: Yes, I do, and I think I'm in a pretty
Speaker 9: good company on that one. As you know, the courts below,
Speaker 9: the Court of International Trade and the Court of Appeals
Speaker 9: have both rejected it. My odds are sixty five percent
Speaker 9: that the Supreme Court's rejected it.
Speaker 7: I'm hopeful that they do it in the first quarter.
Speaker 9: And get this binary event, three trillion dollars binary event
Speaker 9: off our backs. But the single best thing that could
Speaker 9: happen to this administration and again to Republicans down ballot,
Speaker 9: is for the president to get the tariffs revoked by
Speaker 9: the Supreme Court. He doesn't have to admit failure or
Speaker 9: anything along those lines.
Speaker 7: You can to say the.
Speaker 9: Supreme Court won't let me do it, and then just
Speaker 9: not migrate too. Three three eight or Balance of Payments
Speaker 9: Authority or two thirty twos or three zero ones. They're
Speaker 9: going to be threatened. But look at the ones that
Speaker 9: have already been threatened and aren't yet on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors.
Speaker 9: Where's the Critical Minerals investigation? It was supposed to be
Speaker 9: released on the twenty seventh. It might be on the
Speaker 9: President's desk, but he's clearly sitting on it. And that's
Speaker 9: because he can't afford to have prices continue to rise
Speaker 9: by imposing new tariffs, especially on those items.
Speaker 7: So I think it's the best.
Speaker 9: Case scenario for this president for the Supreme Court to
Speaker 9: take the tarriffs down. That would clear the dominimus tariffs,
Speaker 9: that would clear all the AIPA retaliatory tariffs, and give
Speaker 9: the President the ability to take a more nuanced approach
Speaker 9: to trade instead of the blunt.
Speaker 7: Acts that was Liberation Day.
Speaker 9: And I go one step further if I may, and say,
Speaker 9: if he takes the opportunity to reimpose all these tariffs,
Speaker 9: it's going to be so confusing for small and large
Speaker 9: businesses alike. It will be the equivalent of Liberation Day
Speaker 9: two point zero. You can't just swap them out, so
Speaker 9: you know, prepare for equl forth again.
Speaker 3: Well, that means it's going to be an interesting twenty
Speaker 3: twenty six, no doubt about it. Whichever way it goes.
Speaker 3: Henrietta always enjoy getting some time with you. Henrietta Trey's
Speaker 3: Vita Partners managing partner and director of Economic Policy joining
Speaker 3: us here.
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Speaker 1: Well, from the fintech sector to the commodity space, we're
Speaker 1: seeing a major pullback. Well, I would say, you know,
Speaker 1: modest pullback really in gold and silver, but the two
Speaker 1: medals did top records earlier this week.
Speaker 4: I mean, they just went on a tear.
Speaker 1: Here to break down the recent moves, Mike mcgillan, senior
Speaker 1: commodity strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Mike, how much of
Speaker 1: all of this was just pure speculation?
Speaker 8: Just about all of it, I think, Vonnie, when you
Speaker 8: get to these extreme levels, particularly in thin markets, with
Speaker 8: things like gold and particularly silver.
Speaker 4: Silver is known as the Devil's medal for a reason.
Speaker 7: But they're up so much this year.
Speaker 8: Silver, as we've both you mentioned, we've noted a lot
Speaker 8: it's the best year since nineteen seventy nine for both
Speaker 8: of those medals, and history has proven when you rallied
Speaker 8: this velocity. My rule as a strategist, as I take
Speaker 8: off that fundamental technical outlook, I switch over to a
Speaker 8: money manager. I say, typically new long seat. These levels
Speaker 8: do very poorly. So give you example. Silver settled nineteen
Speaker 8: seventy nine at thirty two dollars and twenty cents an ounce,
Speaker 8: and the first end of the year to close above
Speaker 8: that level is this year, twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: It's been a long time, almost fifty years.
Speaker 3: What's driving the trade and the selloff? Is it a
Speaker 3: supplied demand metric? Is it investors looking to move assets
Speaker 3: around a safe haven place.
Speaker 4: Certainly when it comes to gold, what is it?
Speaker 3: Because I know supply demand can often be a big factor, Mike,
Speaker 3: when it comes to various commodities and precious metals.
Speaker 8: Well, certain hell, okay, certainly carol and silver it is.
Speaker 8: But the narratives that they're using now for pulling up
Speaker 8: silver have been around for years. We've all known about
Speaker 8: the demand from solar and everything. But to me now
Speaker 8: it's in that speculative access in stage. I think people
Speaker 8: are realizing it's much more beneficial maybe to allocates to
Speaker 8: some precious metals where there's only four versus cryptocurrencies where
Speaker 8: there's twenty eight million. As a previous announcer frailed to mention,
Speaker 8: there's a nonlimited supply of cryptocurrencies and there's only really
Speaker 8: about ten major medals. So I still think they're going
Speaker 8: to do well. The problems they've just gone too far.
Speaker 8: So I like to compare to metals now. Was when
Speaker 8: the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market in nineteen seventy nine.
Speaker 8: We had a similar pink this year and cryptocurrencies with
Speaker 8: mister Trump tilting over from antagonists to zealot and it's to.
Speaker 7: Look forward to next year.
Speaker 8: I think there's a good chance things like silver can
Speaker 8: get down to fifty and up two one hundred. But
Speaker 8: basically it's the top metal that can go down because
Speaker 8: it went up too much, and even gold. Gold can
Speaker 8: easily trade down blow four thousand and above five thousand.
Speaker 4: But I think it's a top metal.
Speaker 8: They can also drop a little bit, just because they've
Speaker 8: gone up so much and there's so much in the
Speaker 8: mainstream now.
Speaker 1: Mike, a quick word on copper, because we had it
Speaker 1: rallying above thirteen thousand dollars a ton in London overnight.
Speaker 4: Now came weigh off that price.
Speaker 1: But there are real concerns surrounding copper and its industrial uses.
Speaker 8: Right, yeah, so copper, the main thing is the apply
Speaker 8: constraints this year, it's very rare. Is there going to
Speaker 8: be that industrial demand from places like China which is
Speaker 8: in a basically recessionary a deflation period. So I look
Speaker 8: at copper as completely dependent on the stock market going
Speaker 8: up again next year, and if US stock market drops,
Speaker 8: copper will Tribby drop about twice as much.
Speaker 7: But Copple's also auto correlated.
Speaker 8: So I'm very worried that it's not going to be
Speaker 8: able to sustain these realities, particularly as you look at
Speaker 8: deflationary forces in China, is indicated by its ten year
Speaker 8: out yield about one point eighty six percent.
Speaker 3: I feel like Mike, we'd be remissed not to give
Speaker 3: you thirty seconds on crypto, having considering the conversation we
Speaker 3: just had and how it's say golf.
Speaker 9: Did you.
Speaker 3: I don't know, what are you thinking about when it
Speaker 3: comes to bitcoin in particular for twenty twenty six, and
Speaker 3: just got about twenty thirty seconds here.
Speaker 8: More likely to go to fifty and maybe lower than
Speaker 8: stay higher. It's another thing that's completely dependent on stock
Speaker 8: market going up, and it's probably indicating we're going to
Speaker 8: see more volatilely next year.
Speaker 4: All right, good to know, and I'm sure we'll be
Speaker 4: checking in with you a lot.
Speaker 2: Mi.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much, Happy holidays.
Speaker 3: He has senior commodity strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence joining us here.
Speaker 7: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us
Speaker 2: live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen
Speaker 2: on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: All right, everybody, we are back on Bloomberg Markets were
Speaker 3: across Bloomberg platforms, radio, TV, YouTube, Bloomberg originals.
Speaker 4: I'm Carol Masser with Bonnie Quinn.
Speaker 3: All right, Well, IPO's return kind of in a big way,
Speaker 3: maybe big with quotes, I should say ups us IPO
Speaker 3: volume excluding SPACs and closed end funds exceeding forty billion dollars.
Speaker 3: Those deals created twenty one new billionaires. However, many of
Speaker 3: them saw their wealth diminish afterward, and that plays into
Speaker 3: the share price. What happened after those new offerings. Dylan
Speaker 3: Sloan covers IPOs for us here at Bloomberg and he
Speaker 3: joins us right now in studio. Dylan, Let's talk about
Speaker 3: the good news, because we did see finally the IPO
Speaker 3: market open up.
Speaker 4: Were not at the record levels that we've seen in
Speaker 4: years past, but nonetheless we saw some activity.
Speaker 2: We did.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it started strong. Venture Global one of the first
Speaker 10: firms to debut this year. It was slated to be
Speaker 10: the biggest energy IPO for over a decade. They downsized
Speaker 10: that slightly, but again things got off to a hot start.
Speaker 10: Expectations really high. This was viewed as an administration that
Speaker 10: would be favorable to a lot of these big deals.
Speaker 10: We also closed the year with Medline just a few
Speaker 10: weeks ago, which was the biggest exactly biggest IPO worldwide
Speaker 10: this year, one of the largest medical health IPOs in years. So,
Speaker 10: you know, start and finish were strong. But again, yeah,
Speaker 10: there was a little bit of instability there towards the
Speaker 10: middle that I'm sure we're going too, all.
Speaker 4: Right, So we talk about it.
Speaker 3: Minted twenty one new billionaires are there still twenty one
Speaker 3: new billionaires that not exactly less.
Speaker 10: Exactly, we did see somewhat of a recurring pattern for
Speaker 10: a lot of these offerings. There was a lot of
Speaker 10: retail interests. For many of these, we saw a bunch
Speaker 10: of offerings and a lot of these buzzy sectors or
Speaker 10: the AI plays crypto, we would see these massive spikes
Speaker 10: in the first day or two of trading. We'd see
Speaker 10: this the you know, the economic value of insiders stake
Speaker 10: spiked to billions or multiple billions of dollars, and then
Speaker 10: often those games would you know, fall just as quickly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I always felt bad for the retail
Speaker 1: investor because on this they had got in beforehand, and
Speaker 1: how would you know, and you can't then they were
Speaker 1: completely I mean they would have lost a lot of money.
Speaker 10: On these exactly. And some of these ups and downs
Speaker 10: were really big. Newsmax is one in particular that we
Speaker 10: were looking at that was back in late March early April.
Speaker 10: Those shares gained, you know, twenty two hundred percent in
Speaker 10: the first two days of trading, massive spike. Chris Ruddy,
Speaker 10: the founder former New York Post journalists who said there's
Speaker 10: no money in journalism. Right, he was a billionaire multiple
Speaker 10: times over after that offering. But then again that was
Speaker 10: all gone just as quickly. Shares are now trading blow
Speaker 10: the IPO trading price, and like you're saying, yeah, it
Speaker 10: really was an up and down and a lot of
Speaker 10: people got burned on them.
Speaker 1: It leaves a really bad taste in the mouth. So
Speaker 1: what the outlook for the beginning of the year, because
Speaker 1: certainly and to the end of the year.
Speaker 4: We were did a deal.
Speaker 1: Today we're having deals in almost every single day at
Speaker 1: the end of this year.
Speaker 10: Yeah, a lot of the reporting that's been out there
Speaker 10: about the outlook for twenty twenty six is around some
Speaker 10: of these really big name deals for companies that have
Speaker 10: been private for a while. We're thinking SpaceX, that's one
Speaker 10: that Bloomberg has been reporting on extensively. You know, we're
Speaker 10: talking potentially about one point five trillion dollar IPO coming
Speaker 10: sometime next year, open Ai and Thropics, Stripe or some
Speaker 10: of these other really big names that have been thrown around.
Speaker 10: So that'll be a bit of a disconnect from this year,
Speaker 10: where it was a lot of these again smaller companies,
Speaker 10: many of them sort of holdovers, crypto companies, that had
Speaker 10: kind of waited it out during the crypto winter, and
Speaker 10: we're coming back to the public markets now after a
Speaker 10: few years, So that's something to definitely look at for
Speaker 10: next year. Of course, I'll still up in the air
Speaker 10: a little bit yet to be seen if any of
Speaker 10: those going through, but certainly could be big ones.
Speaker 3: The wrinkle I became billionaires this year. I mean, are
Speaker 3: there any among the could you guys break it down
Speaker 3: by IPO and some of those that became new billionaires,
Speaker 3: anybody who held onto their money throughout?
Speaker 10: Yeah, relatively few companies that I will note that. You know,
Speaker 10: even though some of these companies have did have that
Speaker 10: massive spike and then down, many of them are still
Speaker 10: trading out or above the offering price. So you know,
Speaker 10: for people who got in at the very beginning, they're
Speaker 10: doing okay. But I would say in terms of themes
Speaker 10: to break it down, Crypto's one that I've said a
Speaker 10: few times. That's when we saw Bullish a crypto exchange
Speaker 10: down about half from its opening price, Weebel another exchange
Speaker 10: down nearly ninety percent. It was a circle and Gemini
Speaker 10: to the crypto firms sort of who've lost a lot
Speaker 10: from their high water marks. The energy sector was another
Speaker 10: one where we had a few big names. Venture Global,
Speaker 10: which I mentioned at the beginning, Liquid natural Gas company,
Speaker 10: they're down a good bit from their IPO back early
Speaker 10: in the year. And then for me also this AI
Speaker 10: data center company recently down about seventy seven percent from
Speaker 10: their high water mark in October.
Speaker 3: So those themes you got to go to core Weave.
Speaker 3: Though we talked a lot about Corey this year, how
Speaker 3: that happened.
Speaker 10: It's been enoughing down for Chrorive, a real roller coaster,
Speaker 10: you know. Right after the offering, things were a little tepid,
Speaker 10: it wasn't entirely clear where it was going, but then
Speaker 10: we saw a really big run up later through the
Speaker 10: year as again they've become kind of increasingly more involved
Speaker 10: in that AI play and really kind of a poster
Speaker 10: child for a lot of these new neocloud companies that
Speaker 10: are popping up.
Speaker 4: But it's amazing you look at the numbers.
Speaker 3: So they're up changed since the opening IPO price in
Speaker 3: March twenty eighth, ap almost one hundred percent, are almost doubling,
Speaker 3: but since the high water mark they're down almost sixty
Speaker 3: percent exactly.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it has been a really big up and down
Speaker 10: and not instant for them. It's really kind of been
Speaker 10: over the course of the whole year. But that's one
Speaker 10: that's still playing out for sure.
Speaker 1: And then what about these stable coin companies and the
Speaker 1: you know, those those that whole area because we had
Speaker 1: Circle and that's sort of everybody's eyes popped when that went.
Speaker 10: Public, right exactly. That was one of those that saw
Speaker 10: a massive, massive gain right at the outset, and you know,
Speaker 10: it's down about seventy percent from the high water mark
Speaker 10: on June twenty third, but overall it's not actually doing
Speaker 10: that poorly. That's one of those companies where compared to
Speaker 10: the offering price, they're faring relatively well. You know, obviously
Speaker 10: there was a Genius Act passed over the summer which
Speaker 10: helped kind of solidify some of that the regulatory landscape
Speaker 10: around stable coins, which has been a tailwind for them.
Speaker 10: So it's one of those companies where, you know, it
Speaker 10: kind of depends which angle you're looking at it from.
Speaker 3: It's certainly something the administration has been very, very absolutely interested.
Speaker 1: In, and there could be some some more legislation tied
Speaker 1: to the Genius Act next year as well.
Speaker 4: Dylan, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: It's a fascinating beat.
Speaker 7: Love chatting to you.
Speaker 1: That is still on sloan covering IPOs for us right now.
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