WEBVTT - DC Doesn't Have the Collective Will or IQ To Take on Big Tech, Galloway says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:33.599 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg I'm 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.080 ready pleased to say that joining us now from China 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.479 is k you Gin, London School of Economics and Political 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:43.440 Science professor joining us to discuss global trade. Professor, Great 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:45.080 to have you with us on the program. It is 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.239 some some soothing words from President She. Can it actually 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:54.640 materialize into real policy. It's great to be here. Thank you. Um. 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.400 I think that these words are necessary at this junction 0:00:57.480 --> 0:00:59.360 to the cool things down on me. At this point, 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:02.920 I eat China US has really trade frictions, not yet 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:06.679 ignited a trade war. What President She's also trying to 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.840 acknowledge is that given that China has benefited so much 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:13.080 from globalization in the last few decades, it is actually 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.840 time to give back to the global system. So I 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:19.400 think that is really good news in the pubic positive signal. 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.440 Looking at our reporting over the last twenty four hours 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:24.360 from the team at Bloomberg News, it seems if there's 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.880 a a point of tension, Professor, it's over the made 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:31.840 in China twenties five goals and the subsidizing of those 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:34.399 industries that China would like to excel at. Is that 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.040 going to be a red line for the Chinese in 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:40.679 these negotiations when they do officially start. I think that 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.160 these are kind of trigger points that have attracted a 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:47.920 lot of attention in China and has kind of, um 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:52.040 to some extent, irritated the Chinese government officials. So these 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:56.080 will definitely be points of of tension. Um. I think 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.800 what is clear is that despite the fact that President 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:03.120 she As announced to the world these kind of soothing words, um, 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:05.840 China is ready ready to stand, uh, you know, to 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:10.320 confront if necessary, rising trade tension, even a trade war. 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:14.400 I think that they are totally prepared for a contingent strategy. Professor. 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:16.960 Is there a an understanding on the Chinese side of 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:20.040 what the minimum condition of successes for the United States, 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:23.400 what the United States would like, what would actually equal success. 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:29.239 I think the perspective in China is that if the US, 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:34.679 particular President Trump's administration is ready to back off in 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:38.079 some of these very strong words that have been put forth, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:43.200 then China welcomes it, and that China would um prefer 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:47.800 to have talks and negotiations UM, the outcome of which 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:51.120 would depend, but I think that the preference is for 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.120 UH there you know, the US to UH to UH 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:56.720 to use the tension and then try to to follow suit. 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:02.000 Professor good morning, Tom Keene in New York. When I 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:04.320 when I look at the Chinese culture here in the 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:07.400 tapestry that they bring to these debates, it is a 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:11.720 timeline that is longer than any American timeline known. Is 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:14.080 the basic theme of the Chinese to wait all this 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:20.560 out um exactly. Very interesting that I think that the 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.480 Chinese perspective is that they are ready and prepared to 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:28.320 um to to deal with the rising trade engine, even 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:31.280 trade war, and they believe that it's a war of endurance. 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:33.799 And yet yeah, absolutely right, Tom. There's part of the 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:37.280 studies cultural, but also the fact that the government has 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:42.600 a horizon now with the term limit cancelations of indefinite horizons, 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:44.240 that they think that they will be able to wear 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:47.520 this out better than Americans. I mean, part of this 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.960 is their perspective of our president. They look do they 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:56.120 look at the president is a one off cultural event. 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:59.560 Do they look at the president? Is a change, is 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:03.040 a a moment in American history where this will be 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:07.200 consistently the American voice? Or is it? Is it something 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:10.640 more substantial than that. Well, I think this is actually 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:14.040 precisely the problem of this every four or eight years 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.440 and change of president, because they're trying to actually think 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.200 that they want to build a constructive and enduring good 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.920 relationship to the US. But that's not going to work 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.440 if you know, every four eight years there comes a 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:29.680 president that is willing to completely destroy what they have constructed. 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:34.360 So there is no consistency or constancy of that relationship. 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.480 And that's why it's very difficult for China US relations 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:40.080 despite the fact that it is the most central form 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:43.480 relations going forward. Sometimes, Professor, we take quite a simplistic 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.160 view of things and frame this tension through just one 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:49.760 data point, the trade deficit between the United States and China. 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.159 What is the prospect of actually a radicain in that 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:57.080 trade deficit anytime soon? Professor um So, I think that 0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:01.080 first of all, there is um consue on both sides 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.800 about the nature of trade deficits. Uh, this confusion little 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:08.440 bit fatal because so long as the Chinese people produce 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:10.760 more than it's able to consume, which I can see 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.400 in the foreseeable future, it is always going to run 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:16.640 a trade surplus. And similarly for the US. Of the 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.200 Americans don't raise their saving rate, it's always going to 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:22.000 raise the trade deficits. Though it's not just a bilateral 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:26.000 trade agreement kind of issue between the China and the US. 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:28.720 And we have also seen that Chinese you know, R 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:32.039 and B or the Chinese guardency has appreciated a substantially 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.600 in the last ten years, and the trade deficits has 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:39.200 reduced also substantially. UM and the Chinese have sent you know, 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:43.000 multiple high level officials uh to uh you know, to 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:44.880 to kind of ease the trade tension talk, and this 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:47.359 has not been enough. So now the Chinese people have 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:50.039 been kind of set up and actually the Chinese businesses 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:54.560 are putting putting pressure on the government to engage. For 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.600 our listeners, just turning again, the mood music really improving 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:01.239 overnight with the speech from the President of China. Futures 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:03.839 up by twenty eight points on the SMP five positive, 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.400 about two seventy six on the DOW. As we approach 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:09.200 the market open about two hours and twenty three minutes away. 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:12.640 Professor keep saying the mood music has improved because the story, 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.200 the sentiment around this speech gave a sort of a 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.320 considiatory tone from the President of China. But when I 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:20.800 look for real new policy or a suggestion that we 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:24.200 would get new policy, I see a president reiterating things 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:27.760 he said before. Is there anything new in this? Well, 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:30.200 I think you're absolutely right. I mean there is rhetoric. 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.839 When the Chinese government official puts together these very formal, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.760 you know, a kind of speeches and then those actions, 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:40.839 I think that the spirit for a greater openness is 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:43.480 certainly true. I think they're kind of commitment to open 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:47.680 China even more by importing more and giving back to 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:51.279 the global trading system and especially in terms of financial 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:54.200 services is certainly there. But the question is over what 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:57.159 time horizon tenders be reached. Is it really going to 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:00.080 be executed? Um, you know, in the time horizon that 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:02.559 is relevant? I think that is a very big question. Marker, 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:05.839 Preson jin thank you so much. Jin Uh with the 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:24.560 London School of Economics, Daniel Tannembam has without question the 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:29.000 oddest job at Price Waterhouse Cooper's b WC. And that 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:33.920 he's in the financial crimes unit with a huge history 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:38.840 of things like sanctions, but yet yet bringing to get 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.120 over to homeland security and and such, I just got 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:44.880 to go to an open question, Daniel Tannembam, and that 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:49.160 is what was your response when you saw a private 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:55.280 attorney have an FBI rate his home, his office, and 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:58.440 I believe where he was staying at the Loews Regency 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:01.880 hotel two blocks away from our office. How did you 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.440 respond when you saw those headlines yesterday? And it's a 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:09.120 fairly significant move by the Southern District of New York 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:13.320 by the FBI to move further on an attorney for 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.240 obviously a facially high profile individual. Philip Bump as a 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:21.080 wonderful explainer in the Post today where there was literally 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.000 a team within the team of the Federal Bureau of 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:30.560 Investigation to protect the client attorney privilege. Have you ever 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:35.520 seen this in your career, not in this high profile 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:37.800 of an instance. I mean, the barrier to entry to 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:41.160 obtain a warrant in a situation like this is significant. 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:43.200 I think people need to bear that in mind, given 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:45.839 the fact that a federal judge would have needed to 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:49.360 approve the warrant to allow this search to happen. So 0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:51.920 this wasn't just kind of a decision made by the 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:55.320 Special Council or even the U. S. Attorney for the 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:57.520 Southern District. There was a lot more that went into it, 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:01.720 including Mr Rosenstein at Corday. Let's move on to your expertise. 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.360 What is step two or step three or step eight 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:07.680 of sanctions? I mean, I guess we all get brea 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:10.920 cheese is a sanction item. Where do we go next 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:15.120 on sanctions if we sanction, well, if we're looking at Russia, 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.960 and I think the move that the Trump administration made 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.480 on Friday was by far the most significant since the 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:26.120 Russia sanctions came out. The Trump administration finally made good 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:32.839 on the congressionally requested mandate to designate oligarchs and businesses 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:37.720 close to president putin January thirty one. Around eleven fifty 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:40.720 seven pm. There was the first oligarch list that came out, 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:42.920 which was really nothing but the Fortune list of the 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.080 top one hundred wealthiest people in Russia. What came out 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:50.640 on Friday was significant. These are businessmen who actually are 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:53.600 part of the global economy, who have dealings with the 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:57.640 United States, that have global businesses. This was a significant designation. 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.680 What's fascinating about this and it it strikes me as 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:04.559 incredible when you have such a huge divorce between narratives 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:08.240 and reality. The reality is this administration has not actually 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:12.480 gone aboff and beyond what the previous administration did on Russia. 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.640 This is really quite strong stuff from this administration against Russia. 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:18.480 And it's not even just this. If you take the 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:21.120 action for the amount of diplomats expelled, it was greater 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:24.160 than any European country, including the UK, in terms of 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.720 how many diplomats from the Russian government were forced out. 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:30.400 So they've actually taken some fairly significant steps against Russia. 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:33.319 You don't hear much narrative outside of the actions and 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.960 the press releases coming out of Treasury, however, so let's 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.160 talk about what this ultimately means. They've sanctioned twenty four individuals, 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:42.400 fourteen companies, How does this actually play out, and what 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:44.559 are the kind of hotspots you're looking at. So the 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.160 simple rationale of what this means is all of these 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.840 individuals and entities and their assets in the United States 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:54.040 are considered blocked, so they cannot access them, move them, 0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:57.520 do anything with them. It also means that US businesses 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:01.360 um and US persons cannot do this with these individuals 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:04.559 and entities. Where this gets more complicated and where I'm 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.560 advising clients very specifically at the moment, is this is 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:09.920 not an exhaustive list. So if you look at these 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:12.359 oligarchs and you look at the list of entities designated, 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:15.160 this is not an an exhaustive list of their holdings. 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:19.160 Anything that these individuals own fifty cent or more is 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:23.160 also considered a block entity, meaning there's prohibitions and dealings 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:24.600 with them. So it's a bit of a go fish 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.839 exercise because you have to do the due diligence understand 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:32.040 beneficial owners of your clients to know who actually owns 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.199 these businesses in Russia and is it one of these 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.199 designated oligarchs. So for a lot of companies outside the 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.800 United States of America, now I would assume, and you 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:41.880 can correct me if I'm wrong, the bias will be 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.640 just to stop doing business with them full stop. I 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.439 mean you can't, it's Russia. It's not that simple to 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:49.480 just wind down. But the reason I asked down is 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.880 because for many multinationals outside of the the United States, they'll 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.160 be wondering whether these sanctions apply to them and whether 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:57.440 if they continue doing business with them, ultimately, what does 0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:59.360 it mean for doing business with the United States. So 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:01.880 that is of the questions, and the US has had 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:04.440 for some time what are called secondary sanctions, and that 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:08.240 basically is forcing foreign businesses with otherwise no US presence 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.680 to choose between doing business with the target of the U. 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.600 S Government or the United States. And I think that 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:16.199 is a point we may get to. It's also pretty 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:18.480 clear that this is just the first round of these 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.720 type of designations. There's likely going to be more to 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:26.000 come within this. Do the Russians fear sanctions or do 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:28.640 they just sort of yeah, yeah, yeah, whatever. The sentiment 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:31.160 in Russia's I understand it from my colleagues is this 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.400 is having an impact. Obviously, you look at what's happened 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:34.880 to the ruble, You look at what's happened to some 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:37.920 of the listed companies, some of which have lost in 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.000 value over the last few days, and the sixteen billion 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.120 dollars in personal wealth lost by some of the oligarchs. 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.040 This is having some bite to it. So this will 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.520 have an impact. What it means in terms of the 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:53.440 Russian response, both either positively in trying to wind back 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:57.800 some of the behavior that drove the package or offensively 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.480 against the United States, that's still unclear. Just take a 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.640 company like russol Tom owned by like Dea Pasco. They're 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:08.080 responsible for seven percent of global aluminium production. I mean, 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.320 it's huge. So you've now got this big immediate shortage 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.559 for aluminium supply for so many people. And if actually 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:16.960 if you look at the commodity market just briefly alumin 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:19.679 you're flipping into backwardation because the front end has just 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:23.040 shifted aggressively high. So there's some really interesting market bike 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.760 points that are taking place here, Dan, I think moving forward, 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:29.000 this isn't just about Russian sanctions off the back of 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.000 what happened in the election here in the United States, 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.600 and there's also a conversation around Syria, but it's it's 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.960 also crimea as well. This is like a huge parge 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.480 of issues that drove the designation to US just briefly 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:44.000 about how the Syria issue could actually escalate things even 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:48.280 further if there is continued pastoring by the Russian government 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.320 in terms of what they're calling fake news in the 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.720 attack that the Asside regime had placed upon its people 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.760 over the last few weeks. I think that does further exacerbated. 0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:00.679 I don't need to rub the storage is broken, it's 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.360 been out, but so Cana in a ferraud kozak out 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:05.960 of Istan will really right it up. And it goes 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.640 right to the complexities uh Dan Tannebon that you guys 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.559 have to work with. From Damascus, if you go two 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.280 hundred and sixty miles straight north almost a Turkey, you're 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:19.640 running into the old hate province, going back to like 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.680 World War One and Lawrence of Arabia and all that. 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.960 And there is a town called Afron, Syria which the 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.520 Turks have taken over and they're not going to give 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.440 it back even though Russia wants it. When you see 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:36.640 geo politics like that, how does that fold into the 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:41.720 financial threats and world of Russia. It all feeds into 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:45.720 trying to understand where and which you have interested parties 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.520 that may be prohibited from dealing with certain territories. So 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.560 where there's heightened Russian interest, these are provinces. These are 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.560 regions that businesses may want to avoid to ensure that 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.840 they don't get ensnared in any further sanctions issues themselves, 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:00.840 that they may not find themsel elves as the target 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.960 of a potential investigation. So really, I mean you need 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:07.400 to understand where you're doing business and where its sanctioned 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:11.320 parties or at least neighboring territories to sanction countries are 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:14.520 in operation to try and manage that risk. And John 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.160 the headline here from Mr Iurdwan. When the time comes, 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.400 we will return offering to its people, but we will 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.880 decide on its timing. And right, i'm que speaking of 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.040 our contention Turkish laa out to new weakness. Dollar Lira 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.440 record high, a new record high in dollar era. Not 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.560 a substantial move for the dollar against the Turkish leader 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:34.760 in the grand scheme of things, of just six tents 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.920 of one percent, but it's certainly a continuing bleed for 0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:54.240 that emerging market currency. In circuits home, this is the 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.800 interview of the day on Syria. Stephen Cookers of the 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.680 Council and Foreign Relations is he has done long and 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:08.000 hard thinking about Syria, about French Syria and the greater 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:11.080 in Near Middle East. Stephen Cooks thrilled that you're with 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.840 us today. Let me begin with an open question, what 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:21.960 will you listen for from President Trump and his General's Well, 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:23.880 First of all, thanks for having me on and I 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.760 think Uh, it's I think the President has been clear 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:33.800 in signaling that there is an American military strike uh 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.960 in the office. Um, he has said over again that 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.000 those who are responsible for this terrible chemical strikeer going 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:42.960 to pay a price. So now the question is what 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:47.360 does the Pentagon planning look like. Uh. We did fire 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:51.480 fifty nine cruise missiles at Syria not long after the 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:56.440 President took office. Uh, so it seems that they're going 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.440 to have to do something much larger because those fifty 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:02.320 nine cruising hadn't didn't do the job that it was 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.560 supposed to do, which was to deter the offsets from 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.800 music about the weapons. Again, your book False Dawn is out. 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.920 What is the false dawn right now for the Middle East? 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:15.600 What is the false dawn for the artificial borders of 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:20.640 the Mandate of nineteen two big games that became Syria. Well, 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:25.040 the false dawn is this terrible, horrible civil war that 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.040 has become a war tex of violence that has destabilized 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:32.639 both the Levant as well as parts of Europe. Uh, 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:38.920 and the the outflow of refugees from Syria has had 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:41.840 a tremendous impact on the politics in Europe. So it 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:45.120 is really tast this shadow or this false dawn. When 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.720 at the at the outset in March of two thousand eleven, 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:51.399 when Syrians rose up against the straw offset and the 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:54.560 idea was that he would fall in democracy would follow. 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:59.320 We have had actually tremendous amount of blood set and 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:03.919 signit the can political change um not just in the 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.800 greater Middle East, but stretching as far as Europe. Help 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:10.120 us with the response of the allies of Mr Asad, 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.560 Mike Allen and Jonathan Swan over to actually, as I 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.840 do think, do a nice job folks of partitioning. If 0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:17.960 we do a they do be. If we do see 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:21.240 they do d etcetera, etcetera. Does a pro like you, 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:26.320 Stephen Cook worry about the responses of these allies to 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:35.639 our surgical force. Yeah, that is in part an important 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:38.919 part of thinking about what our strategy should be in Syria. 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:43.760 It's not only how to respond to the actual event, 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:48.880 but then subsequently how the and his allies in turn 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.879 going to respond. And I think we are in a process, 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:54.400 we are testing each other, and we're at a rather 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:59.280 dangerous moment because the Russians have laid the ground work 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.520 for UH indicate saying that this is some type of 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:06.120 false black operation, an excuse to the United States UH 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.679 and its allies to take action against Syria, and we 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:14.919 are inching ever closer to a real complication. Let me 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.520 let me give credit to David Lawler over to Access 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.040 It wrote this smart article of the three Thrust Stephen 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:25.720 Cook to quote, if one idea hitting targets like joint 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:31.000 Russian Iranian bases or command and control centers, is that 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.720 even feasible? Now that's a real escalation from what we 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:39.120 saw with the previous tomahawk attack, isn't it. It absolutely 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:41.920 is an escalation. And there is a school of thought 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:45.919 in Washington that, um, you need to take this type 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:51.400 of action. The Russians UH are more capable than they 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.240 have been in the past, but not as capable. Clearly 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.600 don't match the United States, so that we could really 0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:59.880 send a message to them that they need to reig 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.919 in Charlotte and it would give us significant leverage in 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.920 any negotiation process. And I think that that I think 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:09.840 that's the position that makes sense. But we need to 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.520 keep in mind the tremendous risks associated with the first 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:15.719 day and the job. I can't imagine Stephen Cook your 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:18.040 first day in the job for Richard has it comes 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:23.639 on foreign relations. Imagine Mr Bolton, his national security advisor. 0:20:23.880 --> 0:20:26.960 Does he change the calculus of these choices or is 0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:30.639 he someone that's going to be a bystander to Pentagon choice. 0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:36.320 I think that that baster Bolton Long has a history 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:40.200 of being hawkish on both the Russians and Uranians. So 0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:44.600 I uh supposed that he's deeply involved in these discussions 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:49.359 and evaluating what types of military plans. I would imagine 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:53.800 that he is leaning more heavily towards sending a stronger 0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.880 message to the Russian recognizing that our capabilities are now 0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:00.440 remained greater than those are the Russians. Stephen Cook consolant 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:02.520 foreign relations. In the time we've got left with you, 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:05.840 I want to go back to your core abilities. And 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:08.119 this goes to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia with 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:12.040 Mr McCraw, and we look over at the old French Syria. 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:15.240 As I mentioned earlier, Folks, Damaskus two hundred and sixty 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.640 miles straight north to Turkey is a town in Syria. 0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:21.240 The Turks have taken over Alfred. They said, no, we're 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:23.399 not going to give it back. Help us with the 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:28.520 minority calculus of Western Syria buttter stuff against the Levan 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:32.080 and the Mediterranean. What does that calculus look like right 0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:36.560 now for these leaders and particularly soon He dominated Saudi Arabia. 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:43.879 This is the Syria problem has been UH forefront for 0:21:44.320 --> 0:21:49.080 the Saudias, primarily because Siria has had a long standing 0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:53.879 strategic relationship with Iran, and that has put Syria really 0:21:54.000 --> 0:21:57.320 in play. And the way in which other powers in 0:21:57.359 --> 0:22:00.080 the region have sought to use soon He's with and 0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:06.520 Syria pit them against the minority, but in power UH minority. 0:22:07.440 --> 0:22:11.480 The way in which the courage have been used by 0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:14.719 outside powers who are trying to advance their own interests. 0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:17.679 That is why we see this fragmentation. There is this 0:22:18.280 --> 0:22:22.080 central conflict that runs through the Middle East right now, 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:25.920 and that's between Iran and Saudi Arabia and being played 0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:31.119 out in places like Syria, in Yemen, less so in Iraq, 0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:36.240 also in Lebanon. So Um, I'm afraid even if the 0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:40.520 United States take some sort of muscular action in UH 0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:46.400 the region against the Syrians, this type of proxy conflict 0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.200 is going to continue over a period of time because 0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:53.160 Shoudis are not being killed and Iranians are not being 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:57.000 killed in large numbers. They're using others in their own 0:22:57.040 --> 0:23:03.040 conflict against each other. Then within French Syria, this oddity 0:23:03.119 --> 0:23:08.880 of Mr Assad and his Syria alloyed Syria and next 0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:13.760 door Lebanon. I mean, the adjacence ease here are extraordinary complex, 0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:18.280 aren't they They are indeed, Uh, And it has been 0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:22.800 a great mystery to many people why the violence in 0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:25.960 Syria hasn't spilled over in a big way into Lebanon. 0:23:26.400 --> 0:23:28.560 Part of that has part of it has to do 0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:32.320 with the fact that through much of this conflict, the 0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:35.719 Lebanese have not had a government. Uh. They do actually 0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:39.200 have a government now, but is dominated by his Blah, 0:23:39.200 --> 0:23:43.399 which is keeping a lid on my smid. But you 0:23:44.200 --> 0:23:48.600 mentioned French Syria. What we're seeing is a legacy of 0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:52.240 French colonial policy in this area that had sought to 0:23:52.359 --> 0:23:56.320 build up minorities at the extent of the Sunni community, 0:23:56.359 --> 0:23:59.320 that sought that it was their right to be in 0:23:59.440 --> 0:24:04.480 control in UH Syria and Lebanon. Um. As a results, 0:24:04.560 --> 0:24:08.120 you have an empowered alle white community in in Syria. 0:24:08.520 --> 0:24:14.200 The drews were built up specifically on the Marinite community 0:24:14.240 --> 0:24:17.639