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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from the test throwing.

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Speaker 1: Out song respect so we're sitting. It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That's all we see. Most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 1: to gamble, they go to winning. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: If you want to back, and we are underway. Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the Auction Network podcast presented by DraftKings. I am

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Speaker 2: your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by Brandon

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Speaker 2: Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week ten. You

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Speaker 2: will get to those bets shortly, but I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: through just two fun trends today that we're talking about

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Speaker 2: entering today's slate for this weekend. So favorites on NFL

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Speaker 2: trade deadline weeks. That's kind of what I was looking at.

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Speaker 2: I was looking at the last ten years of the

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Speaker 2: NFL trade deadline and those weeks specifically, just to see

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Speaker 2: if there's anything that kind of stood out. So favorites

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Speaker 2: since twenty twenty one, basically last five years twenty one

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Speaker 2: and thirty two against the spread NFL trade deadline being

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Speaker 2: so little bit bad of a trend there. The other

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Speaker 2: one I thought was kind of interesting was totals unders

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Speaker 2: sixty six and fifty two, but forty four and twenty

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Speaker 2: three sixty six percent since twenty twenty. And the most

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Speaker 2: interesting thing I found when kind of looking at these

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Speaker 2: specifically ten weeks is line movement, So when the spread

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Speaker 2: moves from the opening to the closing line away from

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Speaker 2: a team. So as an example, a team who's plus

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Speaker 2: seven and a half goes to plus nine or a

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Speaker 2: team who's minus five goes to minus three. They're actually

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Speaker 2: sixty percent against the spread and sixty two percent when

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Speaker 2: they're underdogs. So obviously that would be any game with

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Speaker 2: a line move which is a ton every time we

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Speaker 2: have these weeks. But for an example, someone like Atlanta

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Speaker 2: who is plus six and a half and was plus

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Speaker 2: four and a half or so on open that would

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Speaker 2: be an example. Or we have let's see another one here,

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. Who Tampa Bay was I believe minus four

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Speaker 2: and a half on the early even minus four now

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Speaker 2: down to minus two and a half. So you can

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Speaker 2: find all that data on the lines for opening closing

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Speaker 2: on Action Network. So that was number one. Brandon, do

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Speaker 2: you have any quick thoughts on just how to bet

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Speaker 2: these specific weeks with the trade deadline, because there is

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Speaker 2: movement early that kind of adjust some of these lines.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's it's tricky going with the data.

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Speaker 1: It's just like a tiny sample when you're going with

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Speaker 1: one week out of the eighteen each time. But it's

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Speaker 1: also not meaningful because like guys are getting traded showing

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Speaker 1: up on a new team. I think it to me

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Speaker 1: is probably more ad hoc where I'm looking and saying, okay,

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Speaker 1: you know, like we saw Brown's Jets, we see the

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Speaker 1: Jets trade away a couple of their stars. That line

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Speaker 1: flips from Jets minus two and a half all the

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Speaker 1: way to Brown's minus two and a half. So I

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Speaker 1: don't know that I necessarily want to just go with

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Speaker 1: a trend alone, but it's a good trend to alert

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Speaker 1: me to say, okay, well, what's happening when this happens. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this flipped five points across the zero, so it's not

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Speaker 1: quite the same five as otherwise, But what's the line

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Speaker 1: move here? Why did it move so much? And then okay,

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Speaker 1: what does history tell us when this has happened? And

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Speaker 1: I think I'd be curious, even though I said small sample,

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Speaker 1: I'd be curious to say, okay, what about when the

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Speaker 1: line moves, maybe like at least a field goal, or

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Speaker 1: like even though it's making the sample even smaller, maybe

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Speaker 1: it's making a bit more meaningful. Like for example, we

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Speaker 1: have Lions commanders this week, that was our look ahead

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Speaker 1: last week Lions minus three. That line is way higher now.

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Speaker 1: But that has nothing to do with the trade deadline.

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Speaker 1: That's because dadon Daniels got hurt. All the other guys

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Speaker 1: got hurt. So how can we kind of limit and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: what's happening to move these lines? Is it trade deadline specific?

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Speaker 1: And I think just generally, I'm always going into the week,

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Speaker 1: you know, just kind of pull back the curtain on

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Speaker 1: my picks. So by the time we record Thursday, I

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Speaker 1: already started, like Friday, Saturday last week with this next

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Speaker 1: week's lines, and I wrote down, what's the number before

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning, what's the number Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes multiple times during the day, You're always watching the

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Speaker 1: number moving because that's telling you information. It's telling you

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Speaker 1: who's betting sometimes, but it's telling you what are the

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Speaker 1: injuries shaping up? Sometimes those lines know the injury information

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Speaker 1: before you and I get the info, you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to discern what's happening there. So to me, trade deadline

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Speaker 1: line movement is just a little bit more piece of

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Speaker 1: that puzzle and to me a good reminder to watch

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Speaker 1: the lines and think about what that movement is telling

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Speaker 1: you before you make your decision.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. My only two other things is obviously that's the

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Speaker 2: closing line for that data. And also it's completely noisy,

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Speaker 2: like the trade deadline has, you know, tons of other

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Speaker 2: factors injuries this week to week, but interesting nonetheless, And

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Speaker 2: the second thing I wanted to bring up was I

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Speaker 2: found this kind of intriguing. So points no longer mean

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Speaker 2: a cover would be the way I would kind of

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Speaker 2: intro this, which is team scoring twenty four points or

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Speaker 2: more this season are covering at just sixty nine point

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Speaker 2: four percent. That would be the second lowest mark over

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Speaker 2: a full season since nineteen ninety. The lowest mark was

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Speaker 2: the pandemic season of twenty twenty, which probably just puts

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Speaker 2: this more into perspective. But I feel like this one

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Speaker 2: is more up your alley, like if you like a favorite,

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Speaker 2: and that's something I should actually look at, and I

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Speaker 2: can look at that this week if you better favorite

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Speaker 2: that favorite covers I wonder how often they go over

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Speaker 2: their team total, because I think that's something you would

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Speaker 2: look at in some of these favorites this week. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean we talk about this like each week. We

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Speaker 1: often come in here and there will be a couple

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Speaker 1: of these today where it's like, all right, well, man,

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Speaker 1: I really like the favorite here to win, but that

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Speaker 1: line it's a little bit too high. I wanted a

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Speaker 1: blow the three and it's a minus four instead, or

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Speaker 1: you know, we'll talk Bills Dolphins a little bit later.

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Speaker 1: I like the Bills a lot, They're in my pick six,

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Speaker 1: but it's like almost minus ten. Do I really want

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Speaker 1: to play a minus ten? I feel like, anecdotally, it

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Speaker 1: seems like a lot of sharp betters, especially even guys

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Speaker 1: on our own podcast, to their credit, start by betting

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Speaker 1: the underdog, and if there's not value on the underdog,

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Speaker 1: if it's like a Bill's Dolphins, then it's like, ah,

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Speaker 1: all right, I probably don't have a line here, which

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Speaker 1: is usually for a sharp better. I think in admission

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Speaker 1: of I don't really see much value on the underdog. Well,

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Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily mean there is value on the favorite,

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Speaker 1: but maybe even find a different way to play the favorite.

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Speaker 1: So I think your trend is a good version of Okay,

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Speaker 1: if I think this team scores a lot, but I

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Speaker 1: don't really want the back door open, maybe the Ravens, right,

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Speaker 1: the Ravens defense is scoring but leaving opponents to score

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Speaker 1: as well, that's a spoiler tripic. We'll get to maybe

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Speaker 1: go to team total instead then, And don't worry about

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Speaker 1: the other side, like think about Cowboys, think about the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: All right, I trust them to score in this matchup,

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Speaker 1: but do I trust them to stop anyone? All right? Well,

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Speaker 1: take that out of the equation, Like with the way

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Speaker 1: we have for so many things, Now think about what

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Speaker 1: is the thing I am most certain about in this game?

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Speaker 1: What's the angle I'm trying to bet? And traditionally, like

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Speaker 1: even a decade ago, it's just which team do I

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Speaker 1: like better? And that's how I'm betting, and not a

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Speaker 1: lot of options. But now you can really focus on, well,

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Speaker 1: why do I like that team better? What's the edge,

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Speaker 1: and what's the way I can bet that specifically? So

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Speaker 1: you see on this podcast particular, I don't give out

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Speaker 1: a lot of just straight sides of just like a

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Speaker 1: minus four or whatever. It's because like I'm still betting

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Speaker 1: those things. I'm still in like you know that the

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Speaker 1: contest where you pick five each week, all those things.

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Speaker 1: But I'm trying to hone in on. Okay, if I

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Speaker 1: think that, if I do think a team scores twenty

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Speaker 1: four or more, can I bet that differently? Is there

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Speaker 1: a better number out there? Is there a better sharper

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Speaker 1: angle to play? Can I bet it more aggressively to

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Speaker 1: get alonger odds, to try to pay out more? Is

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Speaker 1: there an escalator here? Is it a player prop? So

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Speaker 1: I think, just again pulling back the curtain on the process,

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Speaker 1: always be looking. I was scrolling through on DraftKings, looking

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Speaker 1: at all the options. There's a lot of ways to

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Speaker 1: bet these things, not just a side or total these days.

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Speaker 1: So as long as we can keep doing that, we

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Speaker 1: can keep looking all of our options.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're both sick. We look at a lot of

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Speaker 2: different places on the board when we're looking at this stuff.

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Speaker 2: But hey, before we move on, do not forget to

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Speaker 2: sign up for Action Pro for more real time pick

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Speaker 2: alerts from experts like Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire Action

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Speaker 2: Network team. Plus you can access our pro projections powered

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Speaker 2: by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just go

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Speaker 2: to actionnetwork dot com slash pro get twenty dollars off

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Speaker 2: the annual price with the promo code Pod twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: So don't miss out on the best bets at the

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Speaker 2: best prices. Visitactionnwork dot com slash pro use a promo

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Speaker 2: code pod twenty to get twenty dollars off a year

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Speaker 2: of Action Pro. All right, Week ten Best bets Tom.

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Speaker 2: If you want to tell some of these bets, look

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Speaker 2: for a quick slip link in the podcast and video description,

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Speaker 2: or go to actionetwork dot com slash bet now, b

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Speaker 2: et no ow bet now and all the bets from today.

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Speaker 2: We'll just be listed there. Click the link, it'll open

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Speaker 2: to your sports book, super easy. All right. Before we

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Speaker 2: get going, though, we have Brandon's pick six. So every

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Speaker 2: week now he's got a column. He's got a sixteen parlay.

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Speaker 2: I believe he's what are you? One for three? One

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Speaker 2: for two? I can't remember, but this week they'll tell

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Speaker 2: me a second. You've got six favorites, so what can

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Speaker 2: go wrong? What are you doing?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? One for three, we hit the first one. Then

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Speaker 1: we missed on a long shot, and then last week

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Speaker 1: we missed because my vikings messed up my own parlays.

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Speaker 1: So this week no vikings involved, and everything this week

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Speaker 1: is on Sunday. We've had some of the primetime games.

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Speaker 1: No primetime games on the swing either, just Sunday at daytime.

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Speaker 1: We'll start in the morning in Berlin, give me the Colts,

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Speaker 1: then early slate Bills and Bears, and then all three

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Speaker 1: games we only have three in the late afternoon slate.

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Speaker 1: We're taking them all Lions, Seahawks, and Rams. So it's

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Speaker 1: four bigger favorites, two shorter ones. The Rams and Bears

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Speaker 1: are a bit shorter. It's plus five to oh three,

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Speaker 1: and we're all wrapped up before Sunday Night football. And

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about why we're skipping Sundnight Football in just

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Speaker 1: a second. But it's about five to one in most

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Speaker 1: of those games. They all but one, I think come

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Speaker 1: back up again in our podcast. So the thing we

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Speaker 1: just talked about is kind of relevant here. I'm only

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Speaker 1: actually betting I think one of those teams on the

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Speaker 1: spread in our picks to come, but I'm betting four

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Speaker 1: of them in other different ways, just like we just

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Speaker 1: talked about, including a team total and some of those

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Speaker 1: other designs. So Sunday pick six Colts, Bills, Bears, Lions, Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: rams about five to one.

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Speaker 2: All favorites. Let's cash all right, Sunday night football time.

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Speaker 2: That is where we will start. So Steelers and the Chargers.

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Speaker 2: This one is a little bit tough. Like I just

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Speaker 2: feel like from a handicapping standpoint, there's a few different

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Speaker 2: angles can take you to both directions line sitting at three,

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Speaker 2: which is basically nothing. Game is in the Chargers though,

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Speaker 2: and there will be a lot of terrible talents, so

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Speaker 2: you don't this yours.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's in LA. But I think this might be

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Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh home game. Like you said, that's a point

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Speaker 1: that they had on here. We know how this is

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Speaker 1: with the Chargers, but the Steelers fans are always traveling,

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Speaker 1: so I think that the very least takes away most

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Speaker 1: of the home field advantage. I really like the Steelers here.

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus three for me and we'll play the money line.

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Speaker 1: So look, last week we talked about the Steelers, I

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Speaker 1: said I was sitting out the raw ross spot we

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Speaker 1: missed out. This was the raw raw yes spot of

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Speaker 1: the year. Steelers for six turnovers. They finally stopped that

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Speaker 1: huge Colts offense, clearly their best win of the season.

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Speaker 1: And what did they do TJ Watt and that defensive

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Speaker 1: front finally looking like they're supposed to all year, dominating

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Speaker 1: what had been the league's best offensive line to that point.

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Speaker 1: So now it's Chargers on the other end of the

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Speaker 1: spectrum for offensive line. Rayshawn Slater out for the season

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Speaker 1: before we started. Now Joe Alt is out for good.

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Speaker 1: McKay Beckton, the big free agent, he's out as well.

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Speaker 1: Their third tackle, the Slater replacement, Bobby Hart, he looks

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Speaker 1: like he's out. This is tinly a bottom of five

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Speaker 1: offensive line in the league, and that is really being

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Speaker 1: kind at this point. And it's up against tg A Lott,

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Speaker 1: Alex high Smith, Nick Herbig Cam Hayward. He's old but

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Speaker 1: still getting it done. This is really really rough timing

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Speaker 1: for all to go out right before this matchup. And

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Speaker 1: you've seen some of these numbers go around. You had

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Speaker 1: a similar one, I think in your article. Since the

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Speaker 1: Chargers drafted Joe Alt to be their star tackle. When

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Speaker 1: he plays at least fifty percent of their snaps, they're

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Speaker 1: fifteen to five seventy five percent win rate when he

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Speaker 1: is below that or missing two and five straight up.

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Speaker 1: So lots of noise there obviously, but as kind of

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Speaker 1: just telling you this Chargers team is going to the

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Speaker 1: wrong direction right now. They're struggling to run. They're missing

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Speaker 1: their top running backs. Pittsburgh now is top ten pass

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Speaker 1: defense by dv away, and meanwhile, Chargers run defense is

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Speaker 1: the weakest even on the field. They are twenty seventh

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Speaker 1: in dv away. Pittsburgh's quietly run the ball really well

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Speaker 1: this year. That's what Arthur Smith wants to do. Jalen

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Speaker 1: Warren keeps having a big games week after week and

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has been at his best when he gets

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Speaker 1: the ball out fast, and the Chargers are not great

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Speaker 1: at getting pressure. So I just like a lot of

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Speaker 1: the matchup stuff here for Pittsburgh special teams. Huge advantage

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Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh here, and we mentioned the home field thing

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Speaker 1: as well, maybe a flipped advantage there. So is this

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Speaker 1: a raw RAS spot for Tomlin? Yes and no so

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Speaker 1: Week five Ford as an underdog sixty eight percent for

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Speaker 1: his career covering the spread, But all my trends say

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Speaker 1: we want this at home. Well, probably not counting as

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Speaker 1: a home game. Here, we want Steelers after a big loss.

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Speaker 1: That's not the case. Here, they just want we like

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Speaker 1: a division game. That's not it. However, there is a

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Speaker 1: double down factor with the raw raw effect when the

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Speaker 1: Steelers are an under even after they just won as

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Speaker 1: an underdog. That's this one. Twenty five and two ats

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Speaker 1: in Mike Tomlin's career eighty percent cover rate, including eight

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Speaker 1: straight outright wins as an underdog. This is basically telling

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Speaker 1: us when the Steelers do the raw raw thing and

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Speaker 1: the line doesn't react, which this one didn't really react.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it should have, so I think it should have.

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Speaker 1: I think Steelers are the right side here. Plus three.

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Speaker 1: It's my favorite side of the week. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get a three and a half. I've been

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Speaker 1: watching it all week and it's closer to two and

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Speaker 1: a half at times, So I went wait around plus

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Speaker 1: one thirty on the money line. Not a lot of

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Speaker 1: juice there. I'm pretty happy with just the plus three,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, because we might just get like a

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Speaker 1: close loss or something. And then one last point in

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Speaker 1: the pick six article, I was give my extra point

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Speaker 1: start with that off the top here, Chargers to miss

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Speaker 1: the playoffs plus two to twenty five. This is a

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Speaker 1: rough spot. The Chargers face Pittsburgh and then Jacksonville. That's

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Speaker 1: really their top competition in the playoffs for probably one

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Speaker 1: last spot in AFC. I like Herbert, I like Herb,

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Speaker 1: but they can only do so much. Though FTN has

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Speaker 1: forty five percent to miss the playoffs for the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: that would be about plus one twenty we're getting almost

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Speaker 1: double that, so plus two twenty five. I think really

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Speaker 1: that is the money line quote unquote play here that

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Speaker 1: if the Steelers do win, that puts the Chargers playoffs

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Speaker 1: more in peril. So that's probably more my escalator play

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Speaker 1: Steelers plus three and then Chargers to miss the playoffs

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Speaker 1: plus two to twenty five.

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Speaker 2: To me, the pick comes down to the Chargers offensive line.

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Speaker 2: Like it's you could point at so many different units

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Speaker 2: and so many different things, but come Oni Vidal yards

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Speaker 2: after contact against the Titans of under two on twelve

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Speaker 2: Rushes kind of tells you what you need to know

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Speaker 2: about what he's running into on the line. And then

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Speaker 2: just think about this. So Chargers are nineteenth and twentieth

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Speaker 2: in rush EPA and success right, not terrible? Right? Like

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Speaker 2: you think about as a totality not terrible, but you

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Speaker 2: look at third most blown b lone blocks in the

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Speaker 2: past game and second most blown blocks in the run game.

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Speaker 2: They're basically making it harder on their running backs who

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Speaker 2: obviously you lose Harris, you lose Hampdon. Like things are

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Speaker 2: kind of going downhill there. So the question for me

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Speaker 2: is Herbert's covered five straight at night, He's ten and

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Speaker 2: three straight up as a favorite at night. But if

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Speaker 2: he has no protection, who cares? So that's kind of

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Speaker 2: the way I look at this one. So I agree

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Speaker 2: with you. All right, let's keep rolling here. Your favorite

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Speaker 2: team who stabbed me in the back last week, Ravens Vikings.

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Speaker 2: What are you doing in this one?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? So this is a great example of the thing

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Speaker 1: we talked about at the top. So I come into

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Speaker 1: this thinking, Okay, I like the Ravens. They feel like

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Speaker 1: the right side here, but it's Ravens minus four, maybe

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Speaker 1: even four and a half. That feels hefty even by

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Speaker 1: my numbers. That feels hefty even believing in the Ravens

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Speaker 1: this time of the season. So I'm pivoting trying to say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: how do I invest in the Ravens but not have

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Speaker 1: to pay over the key number. I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 1: the team total here, just like we talked about Ravens

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Speaker 1: over twenty six and a half on the team total,

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to an escalator. So here's how I

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Speaker 1: got there. Vikings offense, I think of the four units,

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Speaker 1: clearly the weakest. We can't know really what JJ McCarthy

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Speaker 1: is yet. Ravens defense not great, but certainly looks a

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Speaker 1: little better since cal Hamilton moved. They're getting a little healthier.

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Speaker 1: I don't know necessarily a lot what to expect on

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Speaker 1: that side, so this went have to worry about it.

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Speaker 1: So on the other side, Okay, what's the best unit

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Speaker 1: on the field then? Is it the Ravens offense or

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Speaker 1: the Vikings defense. We saw Lamar Jackson play Brian Flores.

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Speaker 1: It was a short week. We saw this a few

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Speaker 1: years ago and Flora is like blitzed a billion times

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Speaker 1: and it did not go well for Lamar, and the

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Speaker 1: rest of the season didn't go well because other teams

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Speaker 1: started copying it. Well, Lamar is pretty good against the blitz. Now,

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Speaker 1: we figured it out in the last couple of years,

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Speaker 1: and Baltimore's had extra arrest here to get ready for

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Speaker 1: this one, and Vikings pressure great last week, but hasn't

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Speaker 1: really been that consistent this year. The run defense has

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Speaker 1: not been great. They've been hurt by guys like Herbert

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Speaker 1: and Caleb Williams as scrambling quarterbacks. And we know about

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Speaker 1: Lamar against NFC. Lamar against coaches that haven't faced him before,

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Speaker 1: just a really tough ask for an opponent to face.

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Speaker 1: So if you want a side again, I think it's Ravens,

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Speaker 1: but I don't know about the number. I looked at

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Speaker 1: just Ravens first half. That was the play against Minnesota

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Speaker 1: last week. They're two and six against the spread, but

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Speaker 1: one of those wins was last week Lamar first half.

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Speaker 1: We know that's the way to go. But I like

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Speaker 1: team total because with Lamar, even this season, Ravens are

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Speaker 1: averaging just under thirty four points a game. They've had

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Speaker 1: at least twenty eight all five games. We only need

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Speaker 1: twenty seven. We hit her over Lamar. Ravens when he

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Speaker 1: plays have scored twenty eight or more nine straight games,

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Speaker 1: including since the start of last season. Baltimore's won fifteen

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Speaker 1: times regular in postseason, all fifteen times they scored at

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Speaker 1: least twenty eight points. So this to me is a

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Speaker 1: Ravens money line proxy. We don't have to pay the

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Speaker 1: steep money line price. We are getting a money line proxy.

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Speaker 1: This is when the Ravens win, they score twenty eight,

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Speaker 1: we're betting over twenty six and a half and we

380
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Speaker 1: have to pay the money line. Vikings are allowing twenty

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Speaker 1: six and a half points exactly this season against starting quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: They've feasted twice against backups. Otherwise this is basically right

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Speaker 1: at their number. And the Ravens are not an average opponent.

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Speaker 1: So in those fifteen Ravens wins since the start of

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Speaker 1: last year, they're averaging thirty four point three points a game,

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Speaker 1: thirty four points or more in just over half of those,

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Speaker 1: So a slight escalator here as well. Over thirty three

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Speaker 1: and a half Ravens team total plus two seventy at DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: and you just take the points and you need to

390
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Speaker 1: worry about will the Ravens defense show up? Can they

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Speaker 1: make some stops? Who cares? Look as a Vikings fan,

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Speaker 1: I hope they don't help the Vikings score one hundred

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Speaker 1: and I cash my bet any they can win one

394
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Speaker 1: hundred to forty, Well cash and get a Vikings when

395
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Speaker 1: this way, we can just focus on the thing that

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Speaker 1: we like past Ravens, team total over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all the families are getting along here on the favorites.

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Speaker 2: Earlier today we took Ravens first half money line and

399
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Speaker 2: the over in this game, both in the parlay, So

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Speaker 2: I think we're kind of all in the same direction here.

401
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Speaker 2: I'll say this, Ravens and Vikings this year thirteen and

402
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Speaker 2: three to the over combined, so they're on the right track.

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Speaker 2: This seems absolutely obvious to you, but I feel like

404
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Speaker 2: I should say it anyway. So expected points added just

405
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Speaker 2: when you look at the pass game this season, Lamar

406
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Speaker 2: is at plus twenty point six, Huntley plus five point seven,

407
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Speaker 2: Rush minus twenty three point two. If that just doesn't

408
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Speaker 2: tell you what he adds to the offense and why

409
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Speaker 2: you wile I think he was eighteen and six, I

410
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Speaker 2: believe team total over even entering the season, and we've

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Speaker 2: seen what he've done this year, so hard to go

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Speaker 2: against anything in this area. And I think last week,

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Speaker 2: like McCarthy's gonna play good, he's also just gonna play bad.

414
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Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get a little bit of both.

415
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Speaker 2: But I think in this environment you're gonna get points.

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Speaker 2: So let's keep rolling here, all right, Bills and Dolphins.

417
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Speaker 2: This line's large and it's just getting bigger. I saw

418
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Speaker 2: it around eight, eight and a half, now up to

419
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Speaker 2: nine and a half. I think it's gonna get probably

420
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Speaker 2: up to ten based off of everything we've seen, especially

421
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Speaker 2: when Phillipscutt sent out of town, things of that nature.

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Speaker 2: So what are you doing in this matchup?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? This is another one similar we talked about. I

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Speaker 1: want the Bills here, but how how do I bet

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Speaker 1: them without having to invest in such a high line.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, a lot of times on Sundays

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Speaker 1: you see like an eight eight and a half get

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Speaker 1: to nine and a half or ten. That's not even

429
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Speaker 1: necessarily because everyone's betting. That's teaser protection because you tease

430
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: six points down. Once it gets to nine and a half,

431
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 1: six down is still three and a half. It's still

432
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: above the three. So if you see a line in

433
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,640
Speaker 1: that range, you can probably bet on it rising because

434
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: eight or nine is not a normal outcome, but three

435
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 1: and four are in books. Would prefer to not give

436
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: you that option. I don't want any of those options,

437
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take a Bill's second half play minus

438
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: three and a half. We do not quite get below

439
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 1: the key number. But I'll tell you why second half.

440
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 1: I don't need to tell you too much about why

441
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 1: Buffalo versus Miami, like that's pretty self evident. This was

442
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: my first pick for the pick sixth this week. Buffalo

443
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: offense second in the league dvaway Miami twenty ninth. Defensively,

444
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: it's easy pickings and this has been not a rivalry

445
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 1: in the division. Bills have won seven in a row

446
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, fourteen out of fifteen average margin of

447
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: victory fifteen points a game. So maybe you just take

448
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 1: the Bills and they cover, because that's usually been the case.

449
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: Dapphin win really big Tua in his career one and

450
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 1: nine against Buffalo as many picks as touchdowns. But despite

451
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: all that stuff, Josh Allen against Miami in his career

452
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: seven seven and one ats. That's why we have to

453
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 1: bet spreads, not money lines. Okay, so that's full game though.

454
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 1: We always want second half with the Bills, especially when

455
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 1: it's a big spread. Second half numbers get really good,

456
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: and this season Miami second half two and seven against

457
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: the spread. They've hung around for half and then they

458
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: fall off and the Bills all of the second half

459
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 1: team six and two ats this year, and Josh Allen

460
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: for his career sixty seven percent second half cover rate.

461
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: If you are one hundred dollars better and you just

462
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: bet every Josh Allen game second half, he is by

463
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: far the most profitable quarterback in our system, and bet

464
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 1: Labs betters would be up about thirty two hundred dollars.

465
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: That's almost four x the next closest active quarterback. In fact,

466
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 1: you'll never guess this, Evan, which opponent do you think

467
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 1: Josh Allen has the best most profitable second half record

468
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: against any ideas?

469
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 2: Probably not the Jets. I guess it's probably the Dolphins.

470
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: It's the Dolphins. He's twelve and three ats in the

471
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 1: second half, even though he's five hundred ats full game

472
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: against Miami, twelve three second half by almost a full

473
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: touchdown a game. He's actually almost as profitable second half

474
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: against just Miami as any other active quarterback is like

475
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: in their career second half. That's how good he is

476
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 1: in the spot. So Bill's second half minus three and

477
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: a half, just a touch maybe on Bill's by ten

478
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 1: second half at two to one. That's kind of his

479
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 1: usual cover rate. I like this too, because you kind

480
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: of get multiple scripts here. Maybe it's a blowout early

481
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: and now they're just gonna run the ball and they're

482
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: gonna run out of Miami and put it away and

483
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 1: it's easy. Or Miami hangs around and Buffalo is like,

484
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: oh fine, okay, we'll try in the second half and

485
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: now we'll beat you. And either way you like it, Bill,

486
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: second half, play that way and then prop for Buffalo

487
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 1: as well. We talked a lot about Josh Allen. Just

488
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: now we'll just watched last weeks to the Chiefs. Don't

489
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: forget about James Cook, and James Cook is who you

490
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: want for props here. Miami run defense in losses this

491
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,919
Speaker 1: season average nineteen carries one hundred and nine yards to

492
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: the top running back on the opponent. Henry just had

493
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: one nineteen against them, Badal who you mentioned one twenty four,

494
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 1: Ricodoubtle two oh six. They've allowed at least eighteen carries

495
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 1: to lead a running back in all but one of

496
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: their losses one hundred and thirty six scrimmage yards per game,

497
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 1: and then includes James Cook earlier this season nineteen carries

498
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 1: one toh eight and a score, so a couple of

499
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: ways to play over seventeen and a half rushing attempts

500
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:33,360
Speaker 1: minus one sixteen. Again, that's sort of acting like hopefully

501
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 1: it Bills moneyline proxy. He shit that in five straight

502
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: Bills wins nineteen carries or more for Cook, they just

503
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 1: feed him. And he also in those five wins has

504
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: at least one hundred yards. He's averaging one to thirty

505
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 1: seven in those games. So one hundred yards for Cook

506
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: is plus one fifty five. One twenty yards is plus

507
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: three twenty. So I'll play a little bit on those

508
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 1: as well. Keep an eye out. Cook did show up

509
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: on the injury report this week, so obviously you want

510
00:25:58,560 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: to make sure that he's looking good to go.

511
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 2: Well.

512
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: I probably won't go too crazy with high end escalators

513
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: just because if they do get up, maybe they like

514
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 1: sit him a little bit and don't quite grind him

515
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,360
Speaker 1: into the ground as usual. But I like James Cook

516
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 1: kind of as a Bill's proxy. I like Bill's second

517
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 1: half as it Bills proxy. So second half minus three

518
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: and a half.

519
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 2: Yeah. The only stat I can even add to this

520
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 2: would be the fact that that second half number on

521
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, I just like putting a number behind it

522
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: because of how crazy it sounds since it started last year.

523
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: Twenty two and six seems absolutely ridiculous. But that is

524
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 2: Josh Allen and the Bills in the second half, and

525
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: then the fact with Cook on the overs. I mean,

526
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: Miami the last two point six yards after contact per

527
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: attempt tied for second wars in the NFL. The only

528
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 2: team worse the Bills. So I would sit there and

529
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: say to you, all right, but what about the other side.

530
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: But to me, like a chank can have a good

531
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 2: game in the short pass game and it not be

532
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: on rush. So I was considering things like both teams

533
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: that have a rushing touchdown like certain things to kind

534
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: of go, like, go with these trends of bad rush defenses.

535
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 2: But I think Miami can get it a few different ways.

536
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: But I agree with you with Cook, it's the right route,

537
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 2: all right. Speaking of bad rush defenses, you were going

538
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: to attack the bat and bat of this one, because

539
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 2: I feel like you do every single week and every

540
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: one of us has to. So what do you do

541
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: with Bears Giants? I think we know.

542
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want Bears running back overs and I'm coming

543
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: in with a vengeance because I wanted Bears running back

544
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 1: overs last week against the Bengals, and I came in

545
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 1: with all my Doandary Swift props and then he was

546
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: out and we missed out and Kaalamanangai ran all over

547
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: the Bengals for like one hundred and seventy six yards

548
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 1: on twenty six scores or twenty six carries. He probably

549
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: had twenty six scores the way. Yeah, this game I

550
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: find supremely annoying. I was very excited to bet the Bears.

551
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 1: They would have been. My favorite side of the week

552
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: is minus three Sunday morning and an all week long

553
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 1: and just slowly rising past the key. Now past four.

554
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: It's like four and a half, pushing five, even though

555
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: the Bears have a bunch of injuries on the report

556
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: as well. I really think this is a good matchup

557
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 1: for Chicago, but they have two two point wins already

558
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: this year. They had the Bengals come back in the

559
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 1: last second. The Giants have a lost by one and

560
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: by three. I can't really bet Bears at such a

561
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 1: high number. And I looked at second half Bears to

562
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: get under the key number. Giants are two and seven

563
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: second half. But again, why do I like the Bears

564
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 1: it's the one reason it's rushing. I like the Bears

565
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: to run all over this defense. The matchup I think

566
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: might be even better than it was last week. Giants

567
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: are dead last and run defense DVA, dead last and

568
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: run defense EPA per play like pick a stat. The

569
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 1: Giants are probably gonna be last in it against the run.

570
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: They got, you know, small pass rushers Dexter Lawrence has

571
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: not been as good this year, I think as healthy.

572
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: And it looks kind of blustery this weekend in Chicago

573
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: looks very windy, even a chance of kind of freezing

574
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 1: rain or snow. Sounds like run game to me. Think

575
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: the Bears will run all over this defense. And we

576
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: keep talking about this Evan. Since the bye week, Chicago's

577
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: run game has exploded three point eight yards of carry

578
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: before the bye, five point nine since then, over two

579
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: yards of carry, more one hundred and eighty seven yards

580
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: a game rushing, leading the league, their top four success

581
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: rate and ep per play rushing and even just some

582
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: of the matchup stuff. They prefer to run under center,

583
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: they prefer to do outside run. That's the spots where

584
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 1: the Giants numbers are the worst as well. So okay,

585
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: how do you play it then, because the big question

586
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: is Swift is back now, but Manongai was awesome? Which

587
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,959
Speaker 1: one do you play well? Both? In my opinion, Giants

588
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: have allowed fourth most fantasy points to running backs. Seven

589
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: runners already eighty one yards or more, and if you

590
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: look since the buye a week the Bears lost once.

591
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 1: Otherwise in their wins they've had a runner go for

592
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: fourteen for one oh eight, nineteen, one, twenty four, and

593
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: then twenty six, one seventy six last week. So I'm

594
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: gonna do both. DeAndre Swift, I almost said, Taylor Swift, No,

595
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: that's not this game. DeAndre Swift over fifty and a

596
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: half yards now, He's only over that four of seven

597
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: games this year, But I think that that's not totally

598
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,479
Speaker 1: fair because four of his games were before the bye,

599
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: before they kind of figured out this rushing attack. In

600
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: Bears win since the buye, he's averaged sixteen and a

601
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: half carries one hundred and sixteen yards. So I'll take

602
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: the over fifty and a half, but I'm gonna play

603
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: one hundred yards. It's nine to one, and I'm gonna

604
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: play one hundred yards in a Bear's cover. Those things

605
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: correlate to me, a Bears running well should get a win.

606
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: That's twelve to one. I still think Swift is the

607
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: lead guy for now, but I'm gonna play Manong Guy

608
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: as well, in part because maybe the Bears win because

609
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: they're they're or maybe the Bears run well and then

610
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 1: Manongai gets some garbage time runs. Maybe this is the

611
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: new you know, Sonic and Knuckles. Maybe this is the

612
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: thunder and Lightning combo and they both run. I think

613
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: that's probably more likely, but I think that playing Manonguy

614
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: covers us somebody's gonna run on Chica, the on the Giants.

615
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: So if it's not Swift, if he's not healthy or

616
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 1: not getting enough carries, it's probably Manung Guy. Or we

617
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 1: might hit both. We might actually get both runners playing well.

618
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: So Manonguy fifty yards plus one eighty and then just

619
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: a touch on one hundred yards at fifteen to one.

620
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,479
Speaker 1: I don't think so, but I hate to miss it

621
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: in case. He's just the guy breaking out right now.

622
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: And what's fun here is you got to shop around

623
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. We don't know who the right running

624
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: back is, and books don't know either. Different books are

625
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: pricing Manonguy Sharper, and some are pricing Swift Sharper. Well,

626
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: that's great because we can play at each book and

627
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: get both of them. Last time, both these guys were

628
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: healthy and a Bears win. Swift one hundred and eight

629
00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 1: yards fourteen carries, but Manonguy thirteen carries for eighty one yard.

630
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 1: They're both running really well. So last part here, I

631
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: think you can build some really fun parlays here. I

632
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 1: think you go Swift eighty yards, Manungai fifty yards. That's

633
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: plus eleven to fifty. You can also go here's one

634
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 1: that just hit in that last Bears win. Swift to

635
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: hit one hundred, Manungai to go seventy, and a Bears win.

636
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: It's sixty five to one. They just hit that parlay.

637
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: The last time both guys were on the field and

638
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: the Bears won a game. That was against the Saints,

639
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: who aren't any good. Hey, it's the Giants who aren't

640
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: any good. So I think you can play both of

641
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 1: those together. They sort of cover for each other. That

642
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 1: Bears are going to run is just a question of

643
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: which one. But I don't want to solve it. I'm

644
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: gonna let them figure it out and just play both

645
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 1: sides Swift and Manongaia.

646
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just gonna pile on because some of these

647
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 2: numbers just feel absolutely made up and ridiculous. Giants allowing

648
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: seventeen point four percent of runs to be explosive point

649
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 2: four percent above the median right now in the NFL,

650
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: which just it literally sounds unreal. And then opponents forty

651
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 2: broken tackles against the Giants, eight more than any other team.

652
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 2: Then you say to yourself, well, I mean when was that?

653
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 2: Well since Week four. They also have twenty seven, which

654
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: is most of the NFL. So however you look at this,

655
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 2: it really doesn't matter. This is like the best unit

656
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: recently versus a unit that haven't figured themselves out over

657
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: ten weeks. I would be shocked to see the Giants

658
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 2: stop the Bears on the ground, but we will see

659
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: what happens. All right, last game here before we get

660
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 2: to the lightning round, Sunday morning Football, it's sausage and eggs.

661
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: It's Germany Berlin game. Colts and Falcons. The heck you

662
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 2: doing here?

663
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: Yeah? Like usual, I'm gonna take the favorite here. Colts

664
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: minus six and a half. So we saw the big

665
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 1: you know, you mentioned the trade deadline the colt made

666
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 1: that big move this week training for Sas Gardner, Sauce

667
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: Kenny Moore in the nickel, and then once they get

668
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: back to our various word, that's going to be a

669
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: really tough cornerback trio and perfect timing to get a

670
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: little Sauce just some time with Drake London coming to

671
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: town or coming to Berlin as it were. So I

672
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: think that's a really good timing for that. I'm not

673
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: that thrown off with the Colts loss We've talked about

674
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: on the recap pod. I'm gonna give the Steelers some

675
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: credit for what they did, but six turnovers, sometimes the

676
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 1: football bounce is the wrong way on you. The Colts

677
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,919
Speaker 1: were still plus ten percent success rate in that one.

678
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: The offense did still move the ball pretty well, and

679
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: I think they will against Atlanta as well. So the

680
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 1: Colts defense, I think is a bit overrated, But now

681
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 1: they get Sauce Gardner and the Falcons offense is pretty inconsistent.

682
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 1: They're also missing maybe both guards in this game. One's

683
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 1: already ruled out, the other one is still questionable. They're

684
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: already missing last year's center and right tackle due to

685
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,720
Speaker 1: free agency and injuries. Just what has been a strength

686
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: of the team is badly faltering, and the Colts defensive

687
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 1: front has been pretty good this year. Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense

688
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: I think is a bit overrated. I've heard people call

689
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 1: them a top five defense. I don't think so. We've

690
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: seen them be that in a couple of games. But

691
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: they're really not good against the run. They're twenty fourth

692
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: in run defense Dvoway and this is not the team

693
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 1: that you want to be that against. This line offensive

694
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 1: line for the Colts, they get embarrassed last week by

695
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I think you're going to show up here

696
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: and Jonathan Taylor is going to have a bounce back game.

697
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: Atlanta built the defense around kind of small, speedy guys,

698
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: and in the right matchup, that's great, But if you're

699
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: getting mauled by the Colts, that's not great. So I

700
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: think it sets up well here again, another game with

701
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: a huge special team's edge towards Indy. I think a

702
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: big coaching edge as well. She and Steikin's the coach

703
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: of your favorite He's pulling all the right levers. We're

704
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: starting to get some real noise about Rahee Morris. Zach Robinson,

705
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator falcons are just all over the map

706
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: each week, and some of the trends back that up.

707
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 1: Steichen as a favorite sixty three percent cover rate, Raheem

708
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 1: Morris as an underdog forty four percent ATS. Morris is

709
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: also forty four percent against teams better than five hundred,

710
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: and then Daniel Jones against teams under five hundred sixty

711
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: three percent cover rate. So lots of trends like the

712
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: favorite here and went in doubt. You just take the

713
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 1: favorite international games. You've heard the stat on a bunch

714
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 1: of these, but take out the Jaguar games. They're basically

715
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 1: home overseas. Outside of that, international favorites twenty seven to

716
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: thirteen ATS sixty eight percent by about five points a game.

717
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: If you go totals of at least forty fours, we're

718
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 1: not messing with just kind of like little close, low

719
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: scoring games. Eighteen and six seventy five percent for favorites

720
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: on that one, and in those spots the underdog had

721
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 1: not won out right in the last twenty meetings until

722
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: Chiefs and Chargers in the opener this season, so it's

723
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:52,720
Speaker 1: a great spot for international favorites. It's still below seven.

724
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: I think this is a great teaser spot as well

725
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,479
Speaker 1: a few other teams. We'll talk about Seahawks in a while.

726
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: We talked about the Bills just a bit again. Lions.

727
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 1: I think if you want to do a teaser Colts

728
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: plus one of those fits as well, So Colts six

729
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: and a half and if you want a little escalator here,

730
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 1: I think team total is a good way to do it. Again,

731
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: Colts have scored at least twenty nine points and all

732
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 1: seven wins, and they are averaging thirty five point seven

733
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 1: points a game in those is at least thirty eight

734
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 1: and four of the seven, so thirty eight or more

735
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 1: Colts points at plus four forty in case they just

736
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: really hammer the Falcons and bounce back. Atlanta is kind

737
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: of slowly teetering. I don't think we've really noticed it

738
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: too much, but we're all gonna be watching on Sunday

739
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 1: morning and we might see it happen. So take the

740
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: Colts to cover and maybe a little bit on the

741
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 1: team total for an escalator.

742
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, whatever you do with India in this game, I

743
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 2: feel like you can have some fun with some Drake

744
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 2: London on the other side as well, there's some you know,

745
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 2: anti correlation to some positive Drake London and Indy's still

746
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 2: doing whatever they're going to do because I don't have

747
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 2: faith in Penis. I think Pennix anything that looks positive

748
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 2: on his side has been helped by what Drake London

749
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 2: has done. Especially when you look at some of those

750
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 2: touchdowns last week. I think that's more Drake London than

751
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 2: it is Michael Pennick's putting the ball where he should be.

752
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 2: That's my opinion. When you just look at some of

753
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,840
Speaker 2: these team total that Brandon likes in this one, so

754
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 2: favorites of six plus neutral last twenty years, averaging twenty

755
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 2: eight points per game. The Colts themselves as a favorite

756
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 2: since it started last year, averaging twenty eight points six

757
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 2: points per game. Now you look at Daniel Jones, He's

758
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 2: played in two overseas games, both with the Giants, scoring

759
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 2: seventeen and twenty seven. So I don't foresee him being

760
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 2: a pumpkin two weeks in a row, especially in this

761
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 2: spot with his team. So I think he gets it

762
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: back on track. I mean, after six turnovers you expect

763
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 2: something different as well. And here's the last part. I

764
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 2: think that will probably help. Indeed, fifteen of seventeen on

765
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 2: fourth down this year. So if you're looking for more points,

766
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 2: they should go for it in that percentage ridiculous, So

767
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:54,240
Speaker 2: they should continue drives as well. So Colts team total

768
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 2: wake up to some money.

769
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 1: Lightning raw thunder.

770
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 2: All right, lightning round, let's keep rolling here. So this

771
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:10,240
Speaker 2: one's great. I mean, we call them the Sad Cats

772
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 2: just because of the line and the situation. But this

773
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 2: one's crazy. So Saints Panthers line, I believe sitting at

774
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 2: five and a half. But I've seen some sixes as well,

775
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 2: so I can't imagine you're laying it with the Sad Cats.

776
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: Not a chance. This is our upset pick of the week.

777
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 1: We've been on a hot streak with our upsets Dolphins

778
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,760
Speaker 1: and Jets two weeks ago, these Panthers last week plus

779
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 1: seven to fifty. Now it's time to turn our back

780
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: and bet the other way. Saints plus two fifteen on

781
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: the money line. Let's get Tyler Shuck a first career

782
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 1: when look, you have the stat. Everyone has a stat,

783
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 1: the Panthers having a one as favorites in September twenty

784
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:52,280
Speaker 1: twenty one, a ten game losing streak longest since the merger.

785
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 1: And again, this is about the matchup last week, I

786
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,919
Speaker 1: like Carolina because they can run and stop the run.

787
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: That matched up well against Green Bay, who wanted to

788
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: be run heavy, and it was a beatable run defense.

789
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: It was a good underdog script. Well, now they're the

790
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: overdog and the Saints one strength is their run defense.

791
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,280
Speaker 1: The Panthers are missing or banged up at least their center,

792
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: their right guard, their right tackle. Now Ricodoudele also is

793
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 1: banged up, making jokes on Twitter about it probably gonna play.

794
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 1: But Carolina leads the league on inside runs. Saints are

795
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 1: top five EPA per play there. They're more weak outside,

796
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: and so I think that they really fit well what

797
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 1: Carolina wants to do. And now it's Carolina who's the

798
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: slow running team that you don't want to be as

799
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 1: the favorite. You want to be the underdog there. The

800
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 1: Saints run more inside as well. Carolina, we know how

801
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 1: good their run defense is way better outside. They're only

802
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 1: twenty ninth EPA per play on inside runs. Saints are

803
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: not running well at all all year, but maybe inside

804
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: they can find a little bit. This game total looks

805
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 1: under here, a lot of trends to the under. It

806
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 1: looks windy. It's a sub forty total. Again, that helped

807
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: us with Carolina last week. Now they're the favorite. You

808
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 1: want the underdog in that spot if it's a close, ugly,

809
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: low scoring game. And a couple trends for you. Underdogs

810
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 1: that scored sixteen or less in their last three games,

811
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 1: so all three games, sixty two percent cover rates since

812
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. So that's the Saints favorites that scored zero sixteen, sorry,

813
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 1: sixteen or less in their last three games, so the

814
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 1: same thing. But the favorites, they're only thirty three percent

815
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. So that's Carolina. And when you get

816
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: both of those, it's not very often. Four times since

817
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, but her underdog is three and one ats

818
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: they've won two of those and they have a one

819
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: point loss in the other. So all that is to say,

820
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: if neither team is scoring that much and it's all

821
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 1: going under we're probably gonna get like a seventeen to

822
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 1: sixteen sort of game, and let's give her underdog a shot.

823
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 1: So Tyler's shock and the Saints plus two fifteen, we'll

824
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:00,439
Speaker 1: see we're can keep her underdog streak row in here.

825
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. I tend to go against the changing of the

826
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,439
Speaker 2: roles which is kind of what you would have talked

827
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 2: about at the beginning of the handicap, which is a

828
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 2: team goes from like an underdog of four and a half,

829
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 2: five six, whatever it is, and then goes into the

830
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 2: role of a favorite on the other side of four

831
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 2: and a half five six. It's just it never usually

832
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,760
Speaker 2: goes well because it's too quick of a move based

833
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 2: off of public perception. And I think that's you know, Carolina,

834
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 2: you heard the stat last week, Carolina's five and four

835
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 2: underdog in all the games. Like, we're kind of changing

836
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 2: how we believe in this team, and I feel like

837
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 2: this is a little bit of a flip to the

838
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 2: other side. The one thing I will say, Saints have

839
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 2: been horrendous in the first quarter, Like at the end

840
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: of the first quarter, if this game is tight, I

841
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,439
Speaker 2: think you have to believe in New Orleans even more.

842
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 2: And honestly, if I see it's ten to nothing Carolina

843
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 2: at that point, I might look at a really large

844
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 2: number on New Orleans. That's just the way I'm going

845
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 2: to look at the game. No, Shaheed, with the trade,

846
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: Kamara's banged up, there is every reason to want Carolina.

847
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 2: But I'm just I'm a little hesitant. So I see

848
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 2: what you see.

849
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes sense to me. Should we go to

850
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: the Seahawks.

851
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 2: Let's do it? What do you got there, Arizona Seattle?

852
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 1: Yes, I really wanted Seattle here. We know. I've been

853
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: back in Seattle a week after a week and they're

854
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: under a touchdown. It's minus six and a half. I

855
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: really wanted this pick. I make it more like Seattle

856
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: minus eleven by my numbers. So this is why I

857
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: keep hammering this team. Five of seattle six wins this

858
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 1: year by a touchdown, But the one that wasn't was

859
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 1: Thursday night against these Cardinals that they dominated Cardinals at

860
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty three yards with only ten minutes left,

861
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: but then kind of goofy finish and the Cardinals end

862
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 1: up covering. It's a walk off field goal. Cards haven't

863
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: lost by more than four all season. And I've seen

864
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: a lot of people I trust on the Cardinals and

865
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: a lot of trends I trust on the Cardinals. So

866
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 1: I can't do a side. And the other thing holding

867
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 1: me back is this Cardinals defense. I'm starting to believe

868
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: in a little bit. Hunter Rallis's defense now top ten

869
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: in DBA Top ten against the pass, not that great

870
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,439
Speaker 1: in DVA against the run, but sixth by EPA per

871
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,919
Speaker 1: play against the run, and that I think is key

872
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: here because the matchup for me that holds me back

873
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: from taking Seattle. And I'm gonna get to Kenneth Walker

874
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: props here in a second. Seattle wants to run, they

875
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 1: want they're the fourth heaviest run team, but Arizona also

876
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 1: wants you to run, and I'm wondering if we're gonna

877
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: start seeing that from Seattle opponents. Seattle wants to run,

878
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: but isn't good at it. They're good at everything else.

879
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 1: We keep talking about special teams and defense and offense,

880
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 1: well passing offense, they're bottom ten rushing the football by

881
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 1: actual results. What they're doing is fake running and play

882
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 1: actioning out of heavy and trying to pass. But I

883
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: think Rales's defense is pretty stubborn and might not bend

884
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: and might not go light or go heavy to try

885
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: to match that, and suddenly Seattle might just stubbornly keep

886
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 1: running all game. So Kenneth Walker over rushing attempts. That's

887
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: the angle I came to because I like this two ways.

888
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 1: Either I was right, Seattle won and they probably ran

889
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: the ball some and it was Kenneth Walker, or I

890
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 1: was right, Seattle didn't cover. I trusted my instinct, but

891
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 1: they got caught in kind of an ugly low scoring

892
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 1: back and forth game because they kept running a Walker

893
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 1: into the line over and over unsuccessfully, and it let

894
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: the Cardinals hang around. So the line for Walker is

895
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:32,919
Speaker 1: twelve and a half rushing attempts. I'm gonna take the over.

896
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 1: Cardinals have allowed six straight running back one to go over.

897
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 1: That number that includes that game against Seattle. Walker had

898
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 1: nineteen carries that game. In fact, Sharboney had twelve, so

899
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 1: he almost went over as well. So the key here

900
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 1: is which running back again, Sharbone is consistent though pretty

901
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 1: much around ten or twelve a game. It's Walker who's inconsistent.

902
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,839
Speaker 1: If you play fantasy, trust me, you know that four

903
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 1: times this season ten or eleven carries, three times sixteen

904
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 1: to nineteen carries. So this is me banking on one

905
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 1: of those higher end ones. And look, I'm not betting yards.

906
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,240
Speaker 1: I don't really trust Walker to produce. The whole point

907
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: is that I think Arizona wants him to run and

908
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,240
Speaker 1: not produce. So this is not a volume rushing yards angle.

909
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 1: This is a volume attempts angle over twelve and a half.

910
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: Arizona last six games has allowed fifteen, seventeen, nineteen and

911
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 1: twenty one carry games to a running back one. So

912
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: let's take the escalator. At DraftKings eighteen carries is plus

913
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: three eighty twenty carries is plus six to fifty. Remember

914
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,320
Speaker 1: nineteen carries last time these teams played for Kenneth Walker,

915
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: so it fits the script. And just in case, twenty

916
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: four carries plus seventeen forty at DraftKings. Walker did do

917
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: that once each of the last two seasons. He's hit

918
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: that fiven a screw can be a workhorse. Probably Seattle's

919
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 1: going to be winning in that scenario, but hey, I

920
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: like Seattle will win this game anyways. I think they're

921
00:46:56,640 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 1: the better team. We probably need like a charbonnet, you know,

922
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: calf cramp there he sits out the second half or

923
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 1: something to get that one, but got to touch it.

924
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: Just in case, I think Kenneth Walker gets a lot

925
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: of the ball, even if that's what both teams want here.

926
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: So the only reason I disagree with you on anything

927
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 2: in this is I think his yardage is actually a

928
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 2: decent bed as well. The stat that I kind of

929
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 2: lean on. Here worst broken and mistackle percentage this year

930
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 2: on rush giants won, Okay, cool, Buffalo two, Yeah, makes sense.

931
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 2: Three is Arizona and four of the Jets. So in

932
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: my opinion, like I love the handicap. And then you

933
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 2: look back at the rush attempts. Here's his last six

934
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 2: games versus Arizona nineteen sixteen, seventeen, twenty six, twenty six,

935
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 2: twenty one. Now, listen, that was a different team without

936
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 2: a Charbona, and he was getting the rocket all the time.

937
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 2: So listen, I look at the last I believe it's

938
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: yet last five games, charbon Ay. I mean Walker has

939
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 2: out snapped Sharbona in four of those five games, So

940
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 2: to me, he's going to get the opportunities. So I

941
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 2: think you're right on that, and I think Arizona can

942
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,280
Speaker 2: be beat that area. So I think the rush attempt

943
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 2: may be safer, but I could see him breaking one

944
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 2: maybe a longest rush. I don't even know what that

945
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 2: number is, but I like the look on Kenneth one.

946
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 1: Sometimes, if the attempts are there, I don't mind mixing

947
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 1: in a yard's you know spot or two on the

948
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 1: escalator where because you can hit that one. Even if

949
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: you're wrong about the attempts, you might get one long

950
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 1: one that ends up covering and hitting the yards over anyway,

951
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 1: So I like kind of mixing it up, giving yourself

952
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: a few outs that way.

953
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here, Shanahan McVeigh, Rams Niners.

954
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 2: What is the angle you want in this beautiful match.

955
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take Pukinakua overs. So we already took

956
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,279
Speaker 1: Rams minus three on the hot read. Still love that,

957
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: but it's minus four and a half now, so we

958
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,240
Speaker 1: got our value. We don't want it anymore at that number.

959
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:50,760
Speaker 1: I still think this is a great spot for Rams

960
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: offense against what, to me is maybe the worst defense

961
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: in the league right now with all those injuries san

962
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: Fran number thirty one e paper play middle of the

963
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 1: field man. That's in beat for Shanahan of all teams, Like,

964
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: that's where he lives, attacking his middle of the field.

965
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:06,919
Speaker 1: But unfortunately that's where Puka lives too, so I think

966
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 1: he could eat Stafford, had a huge game against them

967
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: the last time they've played now usually with Puka, I

968
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 1: want receptions. I'm gonna play yards here and I will

969
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 1: tell you why. Receptions has been priced in already. Eight

970
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 1: receptions is minus one thirty for Nkua, so I don't

971
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: see a lot of value there. But the Niners have

972
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 1: allowed the seventh most receiver yards this season. Nkua had

973
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: eighty five last game against them on ten catches JSN

974
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 1: nine for one twenty four. I think a similar stylistic

975
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 1: receiver to Nakua and also the Niners. This is kind

976
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 1: of what we just talked about Walker. Niners are bottom

977
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:45,439
Speaker 1: ten against deep passes as well, not usually Puka's thing,

978
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: but if he gets even one deep pass, we might

979
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: get a chunk play in there and get some extra

980
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: yards that way too. So I wanted eight, nine, ten receptions.

981
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 1: That's where I started, but I don't see the value.

982
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: They're gonna play yards instead. One hundred yards is plus

983
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 1: one sixteen at DraftKings. So here's why. Puka in his

984
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 1: career fifteen games with eight receptions or more, he's ad

985
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: one hundred yards in eleven of those fifteen, so seventy

986
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: three percent. So this is kind of me saying, well,

987
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: I wanted eight catches, Well what happened. If he gets

988
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,399
Speaker 1: eight catches, he's gonna get some yards too, So I'm

989
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: gonna play the yards instead. In those games with eight catches,

990
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: he's averaging one hundred and twenty six yards a game.

991
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 1: He's got one hundred and fifty and six of them,

992
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 1: so about forty percent of those, So sprinkling on the

993
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 1: way up. One hundred and twenty yards at plus two

994
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 1: twenty three, one hundred and fifty yards is six to

995
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: one once the market goes up. If you like kind

996
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 1: of most receiving yards on the day or most in

997
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: the afternoon slate, he might be a candidate for that

998
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: one as well. Not going to be a huge price

999
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: because we already know Puka is good, but he's been

1000
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 1: great in this matchup and I like him again here,

1001
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 1: So yards for Puka this week, not receptions.

1002
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 2: The stat that kind of blew me away because we've

1003
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,240
Speaker 2: been talking about San Francisco's defense, especially the past defense,

1004
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 2: for a little while, but they're allowing six point three

1005
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 2: yards per snap as a primary defender, like the marriage

1006
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 2: is doing really, really terribly, and that's their worst number

1007
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty one. And the thing I wanted to

1008
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 2: make sure of when I was looking at Puca is

1009
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 2: first read percentage. So this year he's got a nine

1010
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 2: percent nine percent delta on DeVante in that category, so

1011
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 2: all good there. They are looking at him a ton

1012
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,439
Speaker 2: and since week four, that's fine. It's still a six

1013
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 2: percent delta and with that thirty five less routes and

1014
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 2: eleven more receptions. So the Rams they're playing very well,

1015
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 2: Stafford's playing very well. They're still looking for Puka. All

1016
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 2: makes sense there. So I like the angle and San

1017
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 2: Francisco's pass defense, like we talked about, pretty bad to me.

1018
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 2: This is the last angle forty nine ers in Rams

1019
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 2: have met fourteen times since twenty nineteen. The underdog is

1020
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: thirteen and one against the spread in those games. Kyle

1021
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 2: Shanahan is eight in zero if we are right, and

1022
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 2: San Francisco stays in this game and plays well, and

1023
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 2: it's just going to get way more opportunities than the

1024
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,919
Speaker 2: Rams blowing them away. That's my That's that's the way

1025
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,399
Speaker 2: I look at this. So I like the pookle. Look,

1026
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 2: let's keep rolling here, Browns and Jets. This is one

1027
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,280
Speaker 2: I just don't get it. Like you and I completely

1028
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 2: on the same page almost all the time. And you know,

1029
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:22,760
Speaker 2: you look at these picks and you say to yourself, okay,

1030
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 2: like you and I kind of think on the same

1031
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 2: wavelength a lot. It's just the way of handicapping, in

1032
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 2: the way of attacking certain statistical advantages. To me, I'm

1033
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 2: waiting on you. What do you think? Like, how are

1034
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 2: you betting this game? I want to hear it.

1035
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Browns Jets obviously just ugly, ugly game. Two tanking teams.

1036
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: They probably both prefer to lose. It looks rainy, it

1037
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 1: looks windy. We talked about the lineuplip. Everything in me

1038
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 1: says under under under, Like, what an ugly game? This

1039
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 1: is an under. We're taking the mind shaft. Nope, we're

1040
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 1: going the other way. Brown's Jets over thirty seven and

1041
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 1: a half, Browns Jets over escalat and we're taking it

1042
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: all the way out. So here's where we started. I

1043
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 1: looked at this as the hot read. I looked at

1044
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: it as the under. I'll be honest, because we know

1045
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 1: the stat both these teams are coming off the bye

1046
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: week and off the bye week double by usually means

1047
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 1: you want under. We just played that angle last week.

1048
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 1: But in that spot when the total is below forty,

1049
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,439
Speaker 1: the over is eight and two over the last two

1050
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 1: decades by almost a touchdown. When it's thirty eight or

1051
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 1: below like this one. The over is five and zero.

1052
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 1: Every one of those games at forty four points are

1053
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 1: higher average, almost fifty one points a game. Okay, now

1054
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 1: look five games and two decades, so we did not

1055
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 1: have much sample here, but we've taken a lot of

1056
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 1: these ugly unders. It's way easier to go over a

1057
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 1: low under because you take a low under, you just

1058
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,760
Speaker 1: need to turn the game off and not pay attention.

1059
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 1: Like it is stress every second of the game. Any

1060
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 1: score like it's zero zero, end of the first quarter,

1061
00:53:58,000 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 1: you're feeling great, and all of a sudden, one team's

1062
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 1: gonna touched it. You do the math, you're like, oh no,

1063
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 1: we're like right back and play again. We have stop

1064
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:06,840
Speaker 1: scoring here. You go over. You can get points in

1065
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,439
Speaker 1: a hurry. So I dig in a little bit more.

1066
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 1: Browns games thirty seven are higher. Not asking much, but

1067
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,919
Speaker 1: that's the line we're looking at here. All but three

1068
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 1: times this season in the Browns games, they've had forty

1069
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: four or more. Three times already they did have a

1070
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: fifty eight to the Browns. The Jets, meanwhile, they've got

1071
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 1: two games really bad that we unfortunately had to watch

1072
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 1: both of them. But otherwise forty or more all but

1073
00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 1: those two games, averaging fifty eight points a game. In

1074
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 1: those we've had a Jets game with fifty six. We

1075
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,239
Speaker 1: had fifty nine, we had a sixty six, we had

1076
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:44,959
Speaker 1: a seventy seven. There are points in these games sometimes. Now, look,

1077
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be able to convince you on the

1078
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 1: field about these offenses. They're terrible, But let me help

1079
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,839
Speaker 1: with the defenses. Jets defense ranks thirtieth. They haven't been

1080
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 1: good anyway, and they traded away Sauce and Quinnin Williams.

1081
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:03,280
Speaker 1: They benched Quincy Williams, and Brown's changed offensive coordinators. Tommy

1082
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:06,799
Speaker 1: Reese is the new play caller. Is he magic? I

1083
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:08,880
Speaker 1: don't know. But it can't get any worse. It can

1084
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 1: really only get better against a pretty beatable defense. And

1085
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 1: here's the key thing. Brown's defense, as good as they've

1086
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 1: been this year, have crazy home road splits this season.

1087
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 1: At home eleven points a game allowed by the Browns

1088
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 1: on the road thirty two and a half points a game.

1089
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:29,240
Speaker 1: And those are not slouches. At home. They faced Joe Burrow,

1090
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 1: Jordan Love that, the Dolphins and Mike McDaniel. This is

1091
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 1: not new either, if you look back two years ago,

1092
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:39,280
Speaker 1: the Browns had this amazing defense thirteen point nine points

1093
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: a game allowed at home, thirty one point three on

1094
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 1: the road. This is a consistent thing where at home

1095
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 1: the defense is amazing. On the road they are not

1096
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 1: doing well. Jets games are eleven and four to the

1097
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 1: over at their last fifteen. So we're going over this

1098
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 1: ugly game thirty seven and a half, and if it

1099
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 1: goes over, it might go a lot over. Let's pray

1100
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:05,240
Speaker 1: to the football gods that evan. This is the weird

1101
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:08,280
Speaker 1: game that shows up at the top of our rundown

1102
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 1: on Sunday nights, the thirty nine to thirty eight. Can

1103
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 1: you believe it? Who saw this coming? We saw it coming.

1104
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:17,160
Speaker 1: You're gonna be a escalator over forty three and a

1105
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 1: half plus two to twenty right below that key number.

1106
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 1: That one's reasonable enough, But we're not done there, not

1107
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:26,800
Speaker 1: even close. Fifty or more points plus three ninety fifty

1108
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:30,800
Speaker 1: six or more plus eight thirty sixty or more points

1109
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,879
Speaker 1: thirteen to one sixty six or more points twenty five

1110
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 1: to one. We've hit Jets games at those numbers this year.

1111
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 1: Let's get wild. We're just full contrarian here. I don't

1112
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: know either, but Jets, Brown's find me some points and

1113
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 1: let's go over.

1114
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 2: All I have to say is the Jets did keep

1115
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:54,359
Speaker 2: their offensive players and trade their defensive place exactly, so

1116
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,600
Speaker 2: maybe you're onto something there. I think the weather could

1117
00:56:57,680 --> 00:57:01,720
Speaker 2: lead to some Cleveland offense from Junkins. So what angle

1118
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:03,760
Speaker 2: I think? And I literally just looked this up while

1119
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 2: you were talking about this, Like if you did over

1120
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 2: forty and a half and Junkets to get two, you're

1121
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 2: up to about six to one. To me, that's something

1122
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 2: I could easily see. Like, if you're gonna have a rain, sloppy, windy,

1123
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 2: he's gonna get a ton of carries. He could get three,

1124
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 2: which he's done, I believe before he got to get

1125
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: two in that game.

1126
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 1: He did that in a super weather game the last

1127
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 1: time he got the three touchdowns we played it.

1128
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 2: So I feel like the angle is there to do

1129
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 2: a few fun things on the ground considerably what we

1130
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 2: just saw. But I can't wait for this one to

1131
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 2: be at the head of the rundown. It's gonna be

1132
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 2: like it.

1133
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 1: If we're right at all that we end up way

1134
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 1: over thirty eight points, then that also almost certainly means

1135
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 1: that the props for this game are right for the

1136
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 1: picking that you can go nuts on overs because touchdown odds,

1137
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 1: yardage overs like there's there's gotta be more to those

1138
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 1: as well, so you can probably build some fun same

1139
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 1: game parlays. If you like the over angle, like you're

1140
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 1: saying throwing Judkins, if you like Jets to score, maybe

1141
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 1: it's a brief game. Maybe it's Garrett Wilson can get creative,

1142
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 1: but let's see some points.

1143
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, Dylan Gabriel can't see Jerry Judy, So maybe it's

1144
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 2: the tight ends like Joker that's gonna get some yardage.

1145
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 2: All right, last game here, before we get to the

1146
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 2: look ahead, you're looking for some tight end love Bucks, Patriots.

1147
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:24,000
Speaker 2: What are you doing? Is it Aunt Henry?

1148
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 1: It's not Hunter Henry. I thought about Hunter Henry. I'm

1149
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 1: going with the other team here. I'm gonna take a

1150
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:33,800
Speaker 1: couple of bucks tight ends. I'm gonna play Payne Durham

1151
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:36,000
Speaker 1: for a touchdown at ten to one. So let me

1152
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:37,919
Speaker 1: talk about how I got there, and then the bet

1153
00:58:37,920 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 1: that I really love here. So I'll be honest, this

1154
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 1: is just a super fun game Bos Patriots. I was like, man,

1155
00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 1: I don't get to talk about this game. I want

1156
00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 1: to bet for this game. How do we get to

1157
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 1: talk about this game? So I was digging and digging,

1158
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 1: but it's just it's kind of a mess. Like the

1159
00:58:50,560 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 1: Bucks out of the bye week, but we don't have

1160
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: Godwin or Backy practicing yet. We don't know if they're

1161
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 1: gonna play. Patriots offense might be without Ramondre Stevenson again,

1162
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 1: looks like boot might now play, looks like the center

1163
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:04,920
Speaker 1: might not play. I don't have It's hard to get

1164
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:07,440
Speaker 1: a read in this game because so many guys might

1165
00:59:07,480 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 1: be missing, and the Patriots had the super soft schedule. Okay,

1166
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 1: well enter the Buccaneers coming out is kind of a

1167
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 1: big test against Todd Bowles is suddenly pretty good defense.

1168
00:59:18,480 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 1: And I just think there's a lot of interesting coaching styles,

1169
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:26,160
Speaker 1: interesting personnel groupings, a lot to like here. So a

1170
00:59:26,200 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 1: particular personnel grouping is what leads me to the angle.

1171
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 1: So both these teams defensively are great against base So

1172
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:36,439
Speaker 1: that's like one running back, one tight end. Both teams, though,

1173
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 1: prefer to not do that. They prefer to play in twelve,

1174
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 1: so that's two tight ends, one running back. Tampa in

1175
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 1: particular weeks one to five nineteen percent in twelve personnel.

1176
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 1: Last three games thirty nine percent, So more than double

1177
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 1: getting the tight end in the field. Why because Mike

1178
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 1: Evans is gone and all the receivers are hurt, so

1179
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 1: we need more tight ends on the field. So who

1180
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 1: are the tight ends? It's Kate Onen, we know that

1181
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 1: he always plays, but now it's Payne Durham. He's gone

1182
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: up for about a quarter the snaps to almost half

1183
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 1: the last three games. And get his stats on the year.

1184
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 1: No catches one target, that's it the whole year. My

1185
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:15,000
Speaker 1: man blocks all game long, at every second he can.

1186
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 1: But he's ten to one for a touchdown. The Patriots

1187
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:22,640
Speaker 1: allow the sixth most touchdowns to tight ends on the season,

1188
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:25,320
Speaker 1: and he's on the field half the game in a

1189
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 1: game that we think should have a lot of points.

1190
01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 1: Ten to one just feels a little bit too long

1191
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 1: on that one. But I'll be honest, I really really

1192
01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 1: just wanted Kate Odden props, and until like an hour ago,

1193
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 1: they weren't out there yet, but now they are. I

1194
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 1: put this last on the rundown because I needed the

1195
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 1: number to pop as we were recording, and now we

1196
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 1: got it. I wanted Kate Adden receptions. We're taking the escalator.

1197
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 1: Aughten is the only guy that catches passes. That's the

1198
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 1: whole point with what we just said of the parum

1199
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:56,480
Speaker 1: six catches the first four games, for atten last four games,

1200
01:00:56,760 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 1: five catches per game. At least for every single game,

1201
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 1: he's at least four catches eleven of his last twenty,

1202
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:06,439
Speaker 1: with a six, seven, eight, eight, and nine catch game

1203
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 1: in there. The Patriots allow the seventh most fantasy points

1204
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 1: to tight end. Eight times they've had a four reception

1205
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 1: tight end, including four in the last three games. They've

1206
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 1: allowed tight end reception games this season with eight, nine, ten,

1207
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 1: and ten. Now those are mostly split between guys, but

1208
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 1: the bucks don't split. If Durham does catch a touchdown,

1209
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 1: I can almost guarantee you it'll be his one catch

1210
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 1: that he makes. So I want onton. I want it

1211
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 1: over three and a half. Looks like it's over four

1212
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: and a half. I'll skip and go right to the escalator.

1213
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:42,280
Speaker 1: Seven catches plus three point fifty eight plus seven hundred

1214
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 1: nine for twelve hundred. I'm playing all three. And this

1215
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:48,800
Speaker 1: would have been much higher up on the rundown because

1216
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,480
Speaker 1: I really like this angle. But it just pops, so

1217
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 1: they'll get those in right away.

1218
01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 2: New England's allowed ninth most receptions to tight end, seventh

1219
01:01:57,480 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 2: most yards to tight ends. And the thing that I

1220
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 2: like about the Durham angle, you mentioned it with the formation,

1221
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 2: but also you just look at the tight ended up

1222
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 2: scored against New England a guy named Mitchell Evans Njoku,

1223
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 2: which okay, got it, but so did Fannin, so they

1224
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:15,040
Speaker 2: both scored. And then Tommy Tremble. I don't remember if

1225
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:17,560
Speaker 2: that was a Jatavian Sanders game as well, but to

1226
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: me your understanding with the names, I think anyone could

1227
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 2: kind of get into the end zone, especially a unknown

1228
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 2: tight end from the blocking side. So ten to one

1229
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,040
Speaker 2: hard to go against there, and I love it especially

1230
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 2: I don't think we're gonna expect God winning this game,

1231
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:35,520
Speaker 2: which just leads to more opportunity. So all right, let's

1232
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 2: go to the look ahead. Now, last week you're on

1233
01:02:38,840 --> 01:02:42,360
Speaker 2: Detroit minus three, which congratulations. If you get a backup

1234
01:02:42,400 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 2: quarterback every time you take a look aheadline and you

1235
01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:46,840
Speaker 2: get five points on the line, you're gonna be doing

1236
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:50,880
Speaker 2: really well. Carolina and Atlanta is the game you're looking at,

1237
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 2: So I'm just kind of interested in your thought process here,

1238
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:57,480
Speaker 2: because obviously we just took the Carolina side a little

1239
01:02:57,520 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 2: bit earlier, a different way. So how are you thinking

1240
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 2: about it next week?

1241
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 1: Let's look ahead, skim a shot.

1242
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 2: How about next week?

1243
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 1: I got my mindset, got my mindset. Yeah, so it's

1244
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 1: a little bit against my own pick earlier, but I'm

1245
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 1: gonna take Carolina here. It's plus three and a half

1246
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 1: at DraftKings, and really, I'll be honest the lines last week,

1247
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 1: you agreed that was one of my best look aheads

1248
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:24,959
Speaker 1: of the season. We love that we got a little

1249
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 1: lucky with the injury, but that was part of the

1250
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:29,200
Speaker 1: cap that Daniels was a risk. Again, this one's a

1251
01:03:29,240 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 1: little bit later. This is probably not my favorite look ahead,

1252
01:03:31,560 --> 01:03:34,840
Speaker 1: but it's one specific angle. It's that the Falcons, who

1253
01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 1: we just talked about a while ago, are coming back

1254
01:03:37,400 --> 01:03:40,240
Speaker 1: from Berlin with no rest, and you know I love

1255
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 1: the no rest after you come back from a national angle.

1256
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:46,720
Speaker 1: Teams in that spot have been tighter trailing in the

1257
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:50,640
Speaker 1: fourth quarter sixteen out of eighteen games now in this

1258
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: international series. So if the Falcons are tighter trailing in

1259
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,480
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, then I have to feel pretty good

1260
01:03:56,480 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 1: about a Panthers cover at three and a half, so

1261
01:03:59,040 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 1: matchup wise, I do think Panthers run defense against the

1262
01:04:02,320 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 1: Falcons should be pretty good. I make this by the

1263
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 1: line closer to a toss up, especially when you kind

1264
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 1: of add in maybe like a point for Carolina with

1265
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:15,160
Speaker 1: Atlanta's rest disadvantage. Here, these games usually are pretty close

1266
01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:17,320
Speaker 1: and the rivalryes. Seven of the last eleven are one

1267
01:04:17,360 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 1: score games, So getting three and a half, getting above

1268
01:04:20,680 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 1: the key number is the key here. And look, yes

1269
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:26,919
Speaker 1: I picked Carolina to lose, but they're supposed to beat

1270
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 1: the Saints, which would suddenly mean that they've won five

1271
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 1: of six and they're in the playoff race. I don't

1272
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 1: really buy it, but books might buy it, betters might

1273
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 1: buy it, and more importantly, Atlanta if they lose to Indy,

1274
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:42,320
Speaker 1: which I do think happens. They're on a four game

1275
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:45,840
Speaker 1: losing streak with no arrest back from Berlin, and I

1276
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:48,680
Speaker 1: think suddenly people are like, oh, I kind of thought

1277
01:04:48,720 --> 01:04:50,959
Speaker 1: Atlanta was the other playoff threat in this division. Maybe

1278
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:53,160
Speaker 1: it's Carolina and we're not getting a three and a

1279
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:55,880
Speaker 1: half after that, So this is really about the key number,

1280
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:59,440
Speaker 1: and it's about that rest disadvantage. Spot Panthers plus three

1281
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:01,200
Speaker 1: and a half, even though I know I picked them

1282
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 1: to lose a little bit earlier, so hopefully we get

1283
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:06,600
Speaker 1: maybe both of them. But Atlanta, go embarrass yourself Sunday morning.

1284
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:07,960
Speaker 1: Let's get this line to movie either way.

1285
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:10,919
Speaker 2: I like how you and I think differently, because I thought,

1286
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:12,800
Speaker 2: in my head, well, at least still get one of them.

1287
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 2: You wanted both of them. Well that's fine as well.

1288
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 2: All right, that'll dude. Here on the Action Our podcast

1289
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:21,920
Speaker 2: for our NFL WEE ten Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings.

1290
01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:25,760
Speaker 2: If you want instant notifications and action experts track their bets,

1291
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:28,560
Speaker 2: go to Action hour dot com slash Pro use a

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01:05:28,600 --> 01:05:31,000
Speaker 2: promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year

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01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:33,560
Speaker 2: of Action Pro. If you haven't yet, check out our

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01:05:33,600 --> 01:05:37,400
Speaker 2: new AI quick Slipbot on x just tag Playbook at

1295
01:05:37,440 --> 01:05:39,959
Speaker 2: Playbook and tell it to grab whatever bet you're looking

1296
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:42,439
Speaker 2: for and it'll create a quick slip link for you

1297
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 2: in a matter of seconds. And again, if you want

1298
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 2: to tell some of the bets we gave up today,

1299
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 2: make sure to look for the quick slip link in

1300
01:05:48,720 --> 01:05:52,080
Speaker 2: the podcast video description or go to actioneer dot com

1301
01:05:52,120 --> 01:05:55,320
Speaker 2: slash bet now. We will be back Sunday night for

1302
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:59,280
Speaker 2: NFL recap show that'll be live on Action O YouTube

1303
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 2: page shortly after Sunday night football and boy do we

1304
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 2: have a great game to preview. It is Eagles Cockeys.

1305
01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 2: We will have bets, we will have chats, we will

1306
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,600
Speaker 2: do everything we need to do to get you ready

1307
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 2: for that matchup. Thank you for listening, enjoy the slate,

1308
01:06:15,880 --> 01:06:33,920
Speaker 2: Good luck with all your bets this weekend your phone shots.

1309
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1310
01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1311
01:06:42,080 --> 01:06:45,200
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler