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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're up for running a game so smoothe

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Speaker 1: so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 2: Sixting, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of find good, buddy, And

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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his

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Speaker 2: movements the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to of the wide eyed drill bibus, how

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Speaker 1: old earth pick that happens? Hello and welcome to another

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Speaker 1: episode of Wonder Goal, presented by the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am your host BJ Cunningham alongside my co host and

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Speaker 1: friend and in Dubundo. We have a almost full slate

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Speaker 1: of Premier League matches. Only Chelsea and brightoner off so

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Speaker 1: Chelsea can go play in the FIFA Club World Cup.

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Speaker 1: But it's an interesting slate. We don't have as necessarily

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Speaker 1: a big match. None of the top seven teams are

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Speaker 1: playing against each other. But there is one place we'd

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Speaker 1: like to start and it's Thursday afternoon at two forty

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Speaker 1: five Eastern time. Liverpool is hosting Lester at Anfield. Liverpool

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Speaker 1: is a minus three sixty favorite, Leicester sitting at nine

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Speaker 1: to one, and the draw at plus five point fifty.

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Speaker 1: This is an interesting match because Liverpool is obviously chasing

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Speaker 1: Manchester City in the Tider race, even though it seems

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Speaker 1: pretty much over unless City starts to stumble down the

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Speaker 1: stretch here. This is a big time revenge spot for

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Speaker 1: Liverpool coming off a defeat to Lester during the Festive fixtures.

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Speaker 1: Lester beat Liverpool won nothing at the King Power Stadium

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Speaker 1: during the Festive Fixtures, despite Liverpool completely dominating the match. Anthony,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna kick it to you first. I have a

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Speaker 1: few bets for this one. But where are you going

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool and Leicster?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Right now, we have a few question marks in

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Speaker 2: terms of who's going to be available, so we're recording

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Speaker 2: this on Sunday night. Senegal and Egypt played in the

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Speaker 2: Africa Cup of Nations final two day they will be

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Speaker 2: going back to Liverpool on Tuesday or Wednesday. That's Saudio

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Speaker 2: mone and most Sala, the two best players on those

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Speaker 2: two teams. They've just played a lot of soccer in

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Speaker 2: the last month, you know, not for Liverpool and you're

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Speaker 2: in club, said he doesn't know if they're going to

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Speaker 2: be available, and that makes a huge impact to this

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Speaker 2: line and to whether or not I can play at

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Speaker 2: this number. So right now, at three point five, which

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Speaker 2: is the current total, I will probably pass. But if

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Speaker 2: most Sala and Sadiomne are back in and the line

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Speaker 2: shoots up to three in a three quarters or four

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Speaker 2: goals like it did last time these two teams played

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Speaker 2: in December, it actually got up to about three point

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Speaker 2: eight three point nine issues between three point seventy five

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Speaker 2: and four, I'll be grabbing the under again. It's just

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Speaker 2: way too high. Understand how bad Lester's been. Since November thirteen.

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Speaker 2: They've allowed the two point two to three expected goals

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Speaker 2: per ninety on defense that is worse than every other

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Speaker 2: team in the league by three tenths of a goal. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool have been the best attack in the league two

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Speaker 2: point five expected goals created in that timeframe. So look,

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Speaker 2: I understand how bad this Lester defense is. They're still

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Speaker 2: very shorthanded in defense, but at a certain point there

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Speaker 2: is a bottom to this lesser defense. The talent suggests

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Speaker 2: they should be a below average defense, but not one

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Speaker 2: of the worst in the entire league, and so I

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Speaker 2: think if you know they're defending behind the ball and

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Speaker 2: not getting caught out in transition, they can be more effective.

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Speaker 2: And that's really what happened in the first meeting, and

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Speaker 2: that was at home. This is on the road, so

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Speaker 2: it's much much more difficult challenge to go to anfield

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Speaker 2: and do that for ninety minutes. But they did only

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Speaker 2: allow two point one expected goals in that game, and

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Speaker 2: that came despite allowing a penalty that was missed by

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Speaker 2: Masala as well. So really it wasn't like Liverpool created

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Speaker 2: a ton of chances. They dominated the match, probably deserved better,

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Speaker 2: but they weren't you know, three three and a half

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Speaker 2: expected goals, which is some of the numbers we've seen

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Speaker 2: this defense allow, allowing over four to Toddenham. So they

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Speaker 2: you know, they got wrecked by not Eam Forrest and

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Speaker 2: the FA Cup on Sunday. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: red flag for this Laser team. But I'm still gonna

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Speaker 2: lean towards the under if this gets a three, seven,

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Speaker 2: five or four, and I'll probably be playing it at

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Speaker 2: that point. But right now, too much uncertainty with Mo

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Speaker 2: and Mane and so I'm going to stay away right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned that the uncertainty of those two guys.

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Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. My I have no inside information

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Speaker 1: on this, but my guess is what's going to happen

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Speaker 1: is they'll probably both be on the bench and year

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Speaker 1: and Clapp will probably use them if needed. Obviously, Liverpool

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Speaker 1: brought in Luis Dias from Porto during the transfer window.

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Speaker 1: He him along with Diego Jota and Fermino. Liverpool has

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Speaker 1: plenty attacking talent up top now with those three guys

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Speaker 1: plus Harvey Elliott returned in the FA Cup this past weekend,

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Speaker 1: so the depth for Liverpool is there. I am going

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Speaker 1: to play Liverpool minus one and a half at minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five here, even if Sala and Mane are

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Speaker 1: both out or on the bench this less your defense

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Speaker 1: is so bad in that match obviously, you know, Liverpool

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Speaker 1: only created two point five expected goals, but they had

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Speaker 1: seventy four touches in Leicester's penaltary. That might be maybe

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Speaker 1: the biggest total of anybody this.

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Speaker 2: Entire was the most all season that a team each Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Crazy, when they have to play the big boys, it

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Speaker 1: really it gets really really bad. And against the top

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Speaker 1: seven teams in the league this year. They're allowing two

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Speaker 1: point four to six expected goals for match and two

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Speaker 1: point five big scoring chances per match. I think they

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Speaker 1: just allowed seven to Tottenham a few weeks ago, so

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Speaker 1: it's bad. Obviously, Johnny Evans is still out, so Daniel

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Speaker 1: Armatis have to play out of position at center back

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Speaker 1: alongside Cionka, which hasn't been working. Casper Schmeichel was really

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Speaker 1: starting to trend downwards. His post shot x G plus

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Speaker 1: minus is around minus three, so he's definitely not the

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Speaker 1: type of goalie that we saw when Lester One the

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Speaker 1: Premier League title. It's a really, really bad defense. In

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Speaker 1: Liverpool we talk about revenge spots. This is probably the

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Speaker 1: biggest revenge spot they're going to have all season because

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Speaker 1: they really should have won that match against Lester So

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Speaker 1: and it really took them out of the title race

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Speaker 1: against Man City and gave Pep Guariola side a huge advantage.

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Speaker 1: So I love Liverpool in this spot. Also, the loss

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Speaker 1: that Lester had in Nottingham Forest was even more concerning

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Speaker 1: because they played their A plus lineup. It was as

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Speaker 1: good as they possibly could have done, and they still

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Speaker 1: allowed Nottingham Forest to just thrash them on the counter.

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Speaker 1: So I love Liverpool in this revenge spot. I have

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Speaker 1: their spread projected at around minus two point four, so

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Speaker 1: even if Sala and Many are out, I don't think

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Speaker 1: that the loss of those two guys, especially with Luis

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Speaker 1: Dias coming in, makes up for the gap, getting it

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Speaker 1: down to one minus four and a half. So I'll

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Speaker 1: take the Reds minus one and a half at minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five. Let's kick it to Tuesday at two

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Speaker 1: forty five Eastern time. Newcastle, one of the richest clubs

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League now is hosting Michael's beloved died

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Speaker 1: Everton Toffees. Newcastle is plus one sixty, Everton sitting at

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Speaker 1: plus one seventy five in the draw at plus two forty, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: do you have anything for this relegation battle really at

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Speaker 1: this point in the season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know. Newcastle have made the biggest splash or

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Speaker 2: not splash, but the splash is they have the most

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Speaker 2: puddles of transfer editions. They added Bruno Guimars from France,

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Speaker 2: which I think is a pretty impressive signing when you

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Speaker 2: look at his ability to play the ball forward, his

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Speaker 2: ability to do some ball winning ball progression like he's

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Speaker 2: a very good all around midfielder and really somebody who

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Speaker 2: I think walks into the first team and really makes

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Speaker 2: a big difference for them. They also added Dan Byrne,

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Speaker 2: a really good ball playing center back who played at Brighton,

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Speaker 2: who can play fullback, he can play wing back. He's

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Speaker 2: really versatile, and I think those two editions, along with

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Speaker 2: you Chris Wood and Kieren Trippier, who have already been

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Speaker 2: added and who have already played for Newcastle, make this

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Speaker 2: team not one of the three worst teams in the

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Speaker 2: league anymore. So I actually think the Newcastle might see

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Speaker 2: an upticking performance because they now have a few more

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Speaker 2: players who are capable of playing the way that Eddie

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Speaker 2: Howe likes to manage, in the way that he wants

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Speaker 2: to play, and I think they're better than Watford, Burnley

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Speaker 2: and Norwich as currently constructed. With that being said, I

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Speaker 2: also think Everton you're getting pretty much the lowest point

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Speaker 2: you're going to get with Everton here. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: wrote dogs at Newcastle and so I'm not really willing

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Speaker 2: to play this either side because I think both teams

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Speaker 2: are a little bit undervalued right now generally speaking, in

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Speaker 2: the market and the number seems relatively close. I'd probably

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Speaker 2: make Everton a tiny favorite. But Everton also may not

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Speaker 2: have Dominic Calvert Lewin. He's questionable for this game. I'm

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Speaker 2: really excited to watch this match because of all the

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Speaker 2: new pieces we have. Frank Lampard of course joining Everton

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Speaker 2: as the manager. He plays a much more open attacking style,

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Speaker 2: at least he did at Chelsea, and he did it

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Speaker 2: you know in managerial John's past, and he was a

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Speaker 2: Derby county But we don't know, you know, what his

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Speaker 2: plan is here. What's he going to do with Delhi Ali,

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Speaker 2: What's he gonna do with Donny van de Bak, Two

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Speaker 2: players who in the right system I think can be

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Speaker 2: very successful for Everton, but I'm not sure how long

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Speaker 2: that's going to take. And I'm not sure, you know,

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Speaker 2: if they play really open, you know, their games are

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Speaker 2: gonna be really interesting. When Everton's been healthy this year,

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Speaker 2: they've been an average Premier League team. They've been right

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Speaker 2: around tenth or eleventh, so I don't think that they're

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Speaker 2: they're quite really in the relegation picture now that they've

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Speaker 2: added to the squad and they're getting healthier. But again,

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Speaker 2: I don't really want to bet them on the road

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Speaker 2: here against an improving Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for those wondering why Bruno ga Maras who has

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Speaker 1: been you know, he's been a big target for a

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Speaker 1: lot of the bigger clubs like Arsenal and Chelsea, and

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Speaker 1: a lot of clubs have been really after why he'd

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Speaker 1: joined essentially a relegation team. Well, Newcastle with all that

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Speaker 1: new money. They quadrupled his wages from Leone. So money talks,

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Speaker 1: it seems sometimes, But I do actually like Everton in

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Speaker 1: this spot. Frank Lampard, you know, he played a three

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Speaker 1: four three in the FA Cup match against Brentford on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: so you're not going to see any of the archaic

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Speaker 1: four four two s or four four to one ones

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Speaker 1: that we saw under Rafa Benitez. The big thing with

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Speaker 1: Everton is there obviously they're starting to get healthy. Donty

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Speaker 1: ca Lewin, like you said, is questionable, but with Lampard

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Speaker 1: playing a three four to three, it allows a lot

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Speaker 1: of their players, like with Charleston, to play in more

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Speaker 1: of their natural type of role instead of having to

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Speaker 1: play as a striker up top and the four to

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Speaker 1: four two, which is when he's normally a winger, or

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Speaker 1: at least that's how he played when he was at Watford.

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Speaker 1: Everton's probably gonna play a back line Michael Keane, Mason

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Speaker 1: Holgate and Urimina. I've already said it a million times

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Speaker 1: how much better Everton is when Urimina is back in

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Speaker 1: the lineup, adding Donnie Vanderbeek and Delhi Ali. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if they're going to feature in this

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Speaker 1: type match. They might come off the bench. Who knows,

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Speaker 1: they might start him. A lot of the new signings

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Speaker 1: around this past weekend started right away, so Everton might

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Speaker 1: throw them in in this type of match. Those two

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Speaker 1: playing alongside each other are very very interesting and I

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Speaker 1: think they could potentially work really well together. The biggest

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Speaker 1: thing with Everton, though we talk about it all the time,

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Speaker 1: they really struggle against teams that press them at a

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Speaker 1: high rate. Newcastle is not that team. They're dead last

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Speaker 1: and pass per defensive action. On the flip side, Newcastle

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Speaker 1: is the second worst team against pressure in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: while Everton is actually fourth in pressure success rates, So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot for Everton on

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Speaker 1: the road. We'll see how these new pieces for Newcastle

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Speaker 1: blend together. But as it stands today, I think Everton

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Speaker 1: is a better team than Newcastle, so I do make

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Speaker 1: Everton a small favorite in this one. So I do

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Speaker 1: like the topees drawn O bet at even money. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on on Tuesday to west Ham at the Olympic

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Speaker 1: Stadium taking on Watford. West Ham is minus two fifty five,

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Speaker 1: Watford sitting at seven to one and the draw at

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Speaker 1: plus four hundred. I don't have a lot for this match.

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Speaker 1: I do think that it's fairly priced. Watford obviously coming

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Speaker 1: off a zero or zero draw with Burnley this past weekend,

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Speaker 1: while west Ham needed a late declan Rice Skull to

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Speaker 1: beat a sixth tier side in the FA Cup so

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Speaker 1: they had to end up having to go to extra

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Speaker 1: time and ended up winning. I do think it's fairly priced.

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Speaker 1: West Ham obviously dominated Wattford the last time these two teams.

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Speaker 1: Matt created two point nine expected goals and I believe

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Speaker 1: one four to one. I have nothing this one. Do

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Speaker 1: you have anything for west Ham and Watford?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I have a lean toward Watford plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half. It's right now, it's at minus one thirty.

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Speaker 2: If that gets down to minus one ten one fifteen,

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Speaker 2: I'll be playing it. I don't really want to lay

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Speaker 2: the juice right now. I'm going to make the case

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Speaker 2: that west Ham is probably the most overrated team in

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Speaker 2: the league. Now, now that Chelsea's regressed, we have a

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Speaker 2: new target. At least I have a new target. And

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Speaker 2: I know that that hurts Michael and bj because we've

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Speaker 2: won a lot of money betting west Ham this year.

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Speaker 2: But they in the first two months of the season

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Speaker 2: had the fourth best expected goal difference in the league.

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Speaker 2: That was September October, first half of August, two and

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Speaker 2: a half months, the last two and a half months

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Speaker 2: November December January. There hasn't been a lot of soccer

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Speaker 2: in January, but what was played, they are tenth best

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Speaker 2: expected goal difference and they've been about thirteenth defensively. Now

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Speaker 2: you can say injuries play a part of that, and

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Speaker 2: they do. It looks like Kurtzoom is back now, so

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Speaker 2: that will improve the defense. But they're going up against

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Speaker 2: the Watford team who seems to be reinvigorated defensively by

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Speaker 2: the simplistic yet effective, apparently approach that Hodgson had Inurth.

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Speaker 2: You know, with the four to four two of course,

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Speaker 2: and they only allowed one expected goal and they kept

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Speaker 2: a clean sheet, which they had not done all season,

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Speaker 2: So you know, I think they're going to be inspired

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Speaker 2: defensively here. I think they're able to keep out a

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Speaker 2: west Ham attack that has run well above their expected

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Speaker 2: goals more than any other team in the entire league.

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Speaker 2: They have outperformed their expected goals. And McKell Antonio and

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Speaker 2: Jared Bowen and guys like that are not notoriously great finishers.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not really buying into the west Ham you know,

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Speaker 2: attack numbers that are seem to be due for some regression,

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Speaker 2: so I leaned toward Watford. You did mention it. The

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Speaker 2: last time these two teams played, which was not long ago,

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Speaker 2: it was the end of December, was a pounding for

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Speaker 2: west Ham. They really hit them quickly for a couple

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Speaker 2: of goals early in the first half and dominated the

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Speaker 2: rest of the game. Watford for the first twenty or

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Speaker 2: so minutes. I thought, really he was in that game

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Speaker 2: and again new manager. Now, I know they're on the road,

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Speaker 2: but I think this is a good spot for Watford potentially,

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Speaker 2: but again I need a better number to play it.

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Speaker 2: So right now, staying away.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Let's move on to the next match and my

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Speaker 1: most overrated team in the Premier League. Burnley is hosting

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Speaker 1: Manchester United at turf More at three pm Eastern on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Burnley is at plus five hundred man United a minus

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Speaker 1: one seventy road favorite, with the draw sitting at plus

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Speaker 1: three ten. All start here. I love Burnley in this

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Speaker 1: spot and these two teams met on December thirtieth, United

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Speaker 1: one three to one and one unexpected goals two to

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Speaker 1: two point eight. However, Burnley did not play their best

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Speaker 1: possible lineup in that match. Aaron Lennon started up top

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Speaker 1: with Chris Wood. Jack Cork was in the midfield. Wayne

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Speaker 1: Hennessy was between the pipes. This time around, It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot different. Wild Way Horse looked actually pretty

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Speaker 1: good in his debut for Burnley. Maxwell Corney has been

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Speaker 1: a revelation for them. He'll be back in the lineup,

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Speaker 1: and Nick Pope, obviously their best goalkeeper, is back in

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Speaker 1: goal along with Dale Stevens, who is a much better

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Speaker 1: midw old and vin Jack Krk. Basically all of Burnley's

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Speaker 1: issues this season have come away from turf More. They

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Speaker 1: actually have a plus one expected goal differential at home

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Speaker 1: versus a minus ten point eight expected goal differential on

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Speaker 1: the road. In fact, Burnley's defense is only allowing one

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Speaker 1: point zero eight expected goals for match at home this

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Speaker 1: season has not lost once by multiple goals. Typically with

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Speaker 1: Seanditch teams they allow eight ton of shots they try

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Speaker 1: to keep them low quality. This season is really no different.

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Speaker 1: We've obviously mentioned they haven't really been blocking shots like

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Speaker 1: they've been used to, but Burnley is dead last in

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Speaker 1: shots allowed per ninety but they're seventh in big scoring

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Speaker 1: chances allowed, so they're really improving in that aspect in

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Speaker 1: terms of holding teams to those type of low quality shots.

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Speaker 1: Manchester United, they're currently sitting in the top four with

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Speaker 1: a minus one expected goal differential. Since Ragnik took over,

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Speaker 1: United has played eight matches in the Premier League. They

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Speaker 1: put up a plus three point two expected goal differential,

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Speaker 1: but only one of those matches came against a top

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Speaker 1: seven side, and they have been horrific defensively away from home,

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Speaker 1: allowing one point eight XG per match. I think United

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Speaker 1: is way over valued here on the road. I only

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Speaker 1: have them projected around even money, so I love Burnley

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Speaker 1: plus one minus one twenty or better, and they might

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Speaker 1: just might be my favorite underdog this week. Do you

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Speaker 1: have anything for Burnley and Manchester United?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you pretty much laid out the case for Burnley

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Speaker 2: and I think that's a very fair case. And the

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Speaker 2: splits away home, I think are really a strong point

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Speaker 2: when you look at how bad United has been defensively

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Speaker 2: away from home compared to at home. You know, the

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Speaker 2: last few matches they played. I know they lost to

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Speaker 2: Middlesbrough in the Cup. Let's not get carried away with that.

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Speaker 2: It was a fun to banter them on social media

340
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Speaker 2: and to make fun of my friends who are United

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Speaker 2: fans after that performance, after the loss. But the performance,

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Speaker 2: I mean, if they had thirty shots and Rinaldo mister

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Speaker 2: penalty and Bruno hit the bar on an open net,

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Speaker 2: I mean they should have won that game. Going away

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Speaker 2: created a lot of expected goals, didn't if it didn't

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Speaker 2: take any of their chances. But they're actually showing sums

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Speaker 2: nds of improvement. I think they Their last two games

348
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Speaker 2: at home against west Ham and at home against Middlesbrough

349
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Speaker 2: are probably two of the three best games they've played

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Speaker 2: under Ragnik, and he's gotten a lot of the deadwood

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Speaker 2: out of the club, so I want to, you know,

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Speaker 2: long term, say they're going to be fine. But again

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Speaker 2: you mentioned the body of work, and I don't think

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Speaker 2: we can get stuck in recency bias because I keep

355
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Speaker 2: waiting for United to turn this around. They're so talented,

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Speaker 2: they have a lot of the pieces to make this work,

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Speaker 2: but they continue to not do that, and so I

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Speaker 2: also lean toward Burnley plus one probably wind up playing

359
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 2: Burnley plus one with you. I think the most interesting

360
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Speaker 2: thing here is the attack. And when they played at

361
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Speaker 2: United they actually scored a goal and created about one XG.

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Speaker 2: But really early in the game there was a lot

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Speaker 2: of dangerous counter attacks that didn't quite come off for

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Speaker 2: Burnley that almost resulted in shots. They almost scored on

365
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Speaker 2: a set piece. Again, United has really struggled defensively on

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Speaker 2: set pieces, and United has struggled in transition. Those are

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Speaker 2: two areas where I think Burnley can get at them.

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Speaker 2: Veghorst was fine. I thought two shots er point four

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Speaker 2: XG at home against Watford is not going to inspire much.

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Speaker 2: We have to see you get more of a sample,

371
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Speaker 2: of course, but you mentioned it with corn A him

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Speaker 2: getting four shots is pretty significant for a team who

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Speaker 2: doesn't get a ton of shots per ninety is pretty significant.

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Speaker 2: So I also lean joyed Burnley. But I just have

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Speaker 2: this feeling that United is going to turn a corner

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Speaker 2: at some point, and I'll be looking to see when

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Speaker 2: that's gonna happen.

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00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see. They schedule as a tad easy cone

379
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Speaker 1: up here for a few matches, then it gets pretty difficult.

380
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 1: One thing about United five point six expectacle is allowed

381
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Speaker 1: off of corners, but they've only allowed three, so some

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Speaker 1: type of negative aggression there. Obviously, Burnley has a ton

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Speaker 1: of big bodies now adding white horsed in there on corners,

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Speaker 1: so it'll be very interesting to see if United can

385
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Speaker 1: defend on those. But let's move to Wednesday, Manchester City.

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Speaker 1: It's taking on Brentford. Manchester City the biggest favor on

387
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Speaker 1: the board this week minus nine hundred, while Renford is

388
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 1: eighteen to one and the draw is sitting at plus

389
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 1: nine p fifty Ante. I'll let you kick this one off.

390
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 2: Michael is not here, but I imagine he will be

391
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Speaker 2: playing Brentford at eighteen to one. I just thought I

392
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:12,239
Speaker 2: would get that out of the way. We all know,

393
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Speaker 2: and the biggest thing here is the home and away

394
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 2: splits for the Bees. We've talked about it ad nauseum

395
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 2: on the show. They still exist. They're still pretty concerning

396
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,439
Speaker 2: in fact. I mean they played Man United, you know,

397
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Speaker 2: just two weeks ago, completely dominated them. Played Wolves. I

398
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Speaker 2: thought were they were a much better side in that

399
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 2: game for large stretches. They lost to one at home.

400
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:34,879
Speaker 2: Then they go on the road to Everton in the

401
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 2: FA Cup. Both teams played a pretty strong side. They

402
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 2: get wrecked. They go to Liverpool wrecked. They went to Southampton,

403
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 2: they got wrecked. So I'm playing under three and a

404
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: half because my numbers make me play it. My projection

405
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 2: is only three point one, so I'm going to play

406
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Speaker 2: the under three and a half. I also think City

407
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 2: could be in a sleepy spot. Brentford are a team

408
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 2: that I don't expect to just give in and get

409
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 2: pummeled because when we look at the numbers, how hard

410
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Speaker 2: they work off the ball when it comes to stuff.

411
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Speaker 2: You know, when you look at like ball recoveries second

412
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Speaker 2: defensively in ball recoveries seventh and passes per defensive action,

413
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: they press with intensity, they press and they win the ball.

414
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 2: They work hard wherever they play. But they've just had

415
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 2: no attack whatsoever on the road either, so I don't

416
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 2: know how they score here, and again City has kind

417
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: of had the handbreak on in the league lately. They're

418
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 2: just grinding out wins, you know, pretty much just seeing

419
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 2: it out. I don't think they have the league title

420
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 2: wrapped up because Liverpool have a game in hand they

421
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: still have to play, so it could be three in theory,

422
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 2: but I mean they're overwhelming favorites at this point. They

423
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 2: just need to win games. Only one point five xg

424
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,400
Speaker 2: against Southampton, only point seven against Chelsea, only one point

425
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 2: eight against Arsenal, only point eight against Brentford. They have

426
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Speaker 2: not been running up the score at all. Couldn't mean

427
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 2: they just decide to do it against Brentford, but I

428
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 2: think it's much more likely that doesn't happen. So under

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00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 2: three and a half minus one ten I played.

430
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. This is one of my

431
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 1: favorite players of the entire week. Brentford. When they met

432
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: Manchester City the last time, it was a really impressive

433
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 1: defensive performance for them. Obviously they were at home, but

434
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 1: only allowing City seventeen shot creating actions and twenty four

435
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,640
Speaker 1: touches in their penny area. That's the lowest output from

436
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: City offensively in any competition against anybody this entire season.

437
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,719
Speaker 1: So this Brentford defense is capable and they are still

438
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: have a chance to hold Manchester City. But you mentioned it,

439
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: Manchion City has the handbreak on. We're seeing them play

440
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: that slow, pragmatic type style where they just possessed the

441
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 1: ball a ton and the opponents half of the field

442
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 1: like we saw last season. They're dead last in direct

443
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 1: speed per opta or only around one point nine, which

444
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 1: Menzer's you know, meters per second. They're holding, on average

445
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: a little over sixty seven percent possession in Premier League matches.

446
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 1: So when they are holding that much possession, it obviously

447
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: allows their defense to put up just crazy numbers only points,

448
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 1: sixty six non penalty expected goes allowed for match and

449
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: only a total of thirteen big scoring chances this season.

450
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 1: So I agree with you, I don't see how Brentford

451
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 1: actually scores in this match. They're seventeenth and shots for

452
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 1: ninety second to last in box entries, going up against

453
00:21:58,400 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 1: the best defense in the Premier League and maybe the

454
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 1: world world. It's hard for me to see how Brentford's

455
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: really gonna get on the board here City could potentially

456
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 1: pick their score, but I have a hard time seeing

457
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 1: if they get up to nothing, if to just you know,

458
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 1: go full pedals in the metal here. So I my

459
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: projection is only two point seven goals for this one.

460
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: So Man City matches on average the season are only

461
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: averaging around two point nine expected goals and only thirty

462
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: five percent of their matches have gone over three and

463
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: a half goals. So I'm with you. I love under

464
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: three and a half goals. Let's move on to Norwich.

465
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: They are hosting Crystal Palace on Tuesday at two forty five.

466
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: Norwich is plus two fifty. Palace is a plus one

467
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 1: to fifteen road favorite, with the draw sitting at plus

468
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 1: two forty five. I'll start here. I like Crystal Palace

469
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 1: in the spot. I understand that they have not performed

470
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 1: well on the road compared to their performances at home,

471
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: but I'm not so sure this Norwich team is back

472
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 1: to being not one of the three worst teams in

473
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 1: the Premier League. Maybe Watford three to nothing before the

474
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 1: break on the Friday night Josh Sargent had a race,

475
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 1: but in my opinion, this is still the worst team

476
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. Even that match against Watford, Watford

477
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: actually won the expected goals about a one point one

478
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: two point seven Norwich, their offense, is still really struggling

479
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: to create high quality chances. They've only created over one

480
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: expected goal once in their last seven matches and they're

481
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 1: dead last in expected goals, shots for ninety and big

482
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 1: scoring chances. Now they have to go up against one

483
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: of the best defenses in the Premier League, Kristal Palace

484
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 1: line allowing one point one non penalty expect goals from

485
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: match and has allowed the second fewest big scoring chances.

486
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: When these two teams played last time, Crystal Palace went

487
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 1: up three to nothing right away in the first half

488
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 1: and kind of just rode out the match for the

489
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: entire second half. Norwich did create a few chances, you know,

490
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: with Chris Palace kind of just taking their foot off

491
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: the gas in the second half, but Palace was without

492
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 1: Connor Gallagher and Wilfrid Zaha for that match. So with

493
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: the Chrystal Palace offense that actually has really been improving

494
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: the last two months, ten point six expected goals in

495
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: their last seven matches, including two point two expected goals

496
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: against Pool right before the inter national break Palacetin's a

497
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 1: struggle when they play teams that will press them high

498
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: their fifteenth in offensive pass for defensive action, but Norwich

499
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 1: is dead last in pressure success right, So I think

500
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: this is a good spot for Crystal Palace, even though

501
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 1: they haven't performed as well on the road that they

502
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: have at home. I have them projected at minus one

503
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: zo six, so I like the value at plus one fifteen.

504
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: Do you have anything for Norwich versus Crystal Palace and.

505
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,239
Speaker 2: My numbers about right. Two teams I think are well

506
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 2: at least two teams that I think, generally speaking do

507
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 2: have some positive regression coming. The one interesting thing Norwich

508
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: have scored in three consecutive games, which is crazy because

509
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 2: they've only done that twice all year. The first time

510
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 2: they had a two one loss to Leeds, two one

511
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 2: win against Brentford they fired Farka and they had the

512
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 2: two to one win against Southampton. So now they've scored

513
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: in three straight. They beat Everton, they beat Watford, they

514
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 2: beat Wolves in the FA Cup. It's a pretty good run.

515
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 2: But like you said, a little fortunate to win all those.

516
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 2: They were due for a few games where they took

517
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 2: some chances that they probably didn't deserve to and Sergeant,

518
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 2: especially with his two goals against Watford, they get an

519
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 2: own goal in both games, so you know you're looking

520
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 2: at it and you're like, okay, are they really doing

521
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 2: any better? You look at the pass and penalty area,

522
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 2: You look at the possession stats, the passing numbers. Nothing

523
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 2: really suggests that anything has really changed. So I would

524
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 2: lean toward Palace if I had to, But I'm not

525
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: really enough value on the road for this number for me.

526
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. On Wednesday, your Tottenham Hot

527
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: Spurs are hosting Southampton at two forty five Eastern. Tottenham

528
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: is a minus one sixty favorite, Southampton at plus four

529
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: to seventy five, with the draw at plus three ten.

530
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 1: I don't really have anything for this match. My number

531
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 1: is pretty close to what it is when these two

532
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 1: teams met last during the festive fixtures. Southampton got a

533
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: red card and was able to hold off Spurs for

534
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: the entire match and get the point, don't I don't

535
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: have anything for this one? How are you feeling about

536
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: your Spurs?

537
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 2: I'll have a full preview of this match up on

538
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 2: the Action network dot com. We'll also have full previous

539
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 2: for every match in the midweek, so go read those

540
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 2: good analysis and hopefully we find some winners. But I

541
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 2: leaned toward the over here. I played over two and

542
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: a half in the first meeting and I think it

543
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: might have been my worst, one of my worst beats

544
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: of the year. I'd understand there was a red card

545
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,719
Speaker 2: that really threw things off, but really it was one

546
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: one heading into halftime. Spurs had an extra man. They

547
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 2: had two goals very controversially ruled off because of our

548
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 2: and I thought both were the wrong decision. With that

549
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: being said, Spurs attack and Southampton's attack are both two

550
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 2: teams that are on the list of teams you'd expect

551
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 2: to have a big offensive breakout coming. Tottenham did score

552
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 2: three goals at the weekend and what was I think

553
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 2: a very underrated performance. Nobody talked about it because it

554
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: was the cup, but Spurs and Brighton both played their

555
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: best team. Harry King got two goals, there was a

556
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 2: Flute goal in there that went Spurs way. Most importantly though,

557
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 2: and the reason I'm just leaning toward the over is

558
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 2: that the addition of Christian Romero back into the lineup

559
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: made the Spurs defense considerably better and made them look

560
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 2: sturdier at the back. Southampton scored on across and was

561
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 2: very dangerous on set pieces in the first meeting. I

562
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 2: think they can do that again. Of course, James Ward

563
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 2: Prow's best set piece taker in the entire league. Right now,

564
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: my projection has it at two point eight two goals,

565
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: so not a ton of value in the over two

566
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 2: point seventy five. But again with the regression indicator's pointing

567
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 2: the way they are for Tottenham, especially Harry Kane, seems

568
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 2: to be turning a corner potentially, but for the season

569
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: they're still only at twenty six goals scored despite almost

570
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 2: thirty two expected goals four and an attack. For Southampton,

571
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 2: they're running a little behind there too. They've been on

572
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 2: a bit of a hot finishing run themselves, so I

573
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: lean toward the over. I think this game's to be

574
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 2: pretty open yet again like it was the last time

575
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: back and forth, and the one big thing Southampton's defense.

576
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 2: They play in a defensive press and that makes them

577
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 2: vulnerable to when they do get broken open or beaten

578
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 2: over the top. They tend to have serious issues. If

579
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: the press is just a little off that leads to

580
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: huge chances. Well, Tottenham is the kind of team the

581
00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: way they've played under Conte and the way they played

582
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 2: in Mano last year, it's relatively similar in terms of,

583
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 2: you know, still being relying a little bit on long

584
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 2: balls over the top to Cade and so on. Well,

585
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: that's a way for them to absolutely attack this Southampton defense.

586
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 2: And Saints gave away the penalty and got the red

587
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: card in part because someone was in behind one of

588
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: them with the goalkeeper and they took him out. So

589
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to get in behind a

590
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 2: few times here, and if they're finishing, which we know

591
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 2: they're due to do, I think there's a good chances

592
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: goes over two point seventy five. But I'll have the

593
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: full righte up on the site as of Tuesday.

594
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually kind of leaning Tottenham here. I have

595
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: tot them spread projector right around minus one. I have

596
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: them projected minus one fifty five. The thing about Southampton

597
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: is there it looks like Alex McCarthy's going to be out.

598
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: Brosia looks like he's going to miss the match as well,

599
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: which obviously hurts Southampton. And as much as I hate

600
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 1: to admit a Tottenham has maybe been one of the

601
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: more impressive teams in the Premier League over the last

602
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: two months, and they're obviously trending the right way with

603
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: a lot of their attackers getting healthy. So I'll be

604
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: interested to see minus one is plus one fifteen right now.

605
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: I'm really really close to playing that. I want to

606
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: see potentially it'll tick up. I don't know, potentially get

607
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: a minus one at plus one twenty. But I'm laying

608
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: towards Tottenham, and i also have two point eighty five

609
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: goals projected for this match, so we're right on with

610
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: the projection of the overs. So I agree with both

611
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: those points, as you know, with the over and myself

612
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: potentially playing Tottenham minus one and one. Thing.

613
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: You know, this closed one thirty five one forty Spurs

614
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 2: on the road in December, so you know, you take

615
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: home field into account where Spurs have been considerably better.

616
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: You know, they played more home games than away games,

617
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 2: but they've been considerably better at home naturally, But that

618
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 2: doesn't really the swing in the line has not accounted fully.

619
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 2: Southampton's getting a bit of a bump, it seems in

620
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: the market. I don't can't imagine Spurs have been downgraded

621
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: so it seems that Saints have been upgraded. I'm not

622
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: really sure what the basis is for that. I know

623
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 2: they had a good result against City, but the performance

624
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 2: was again we saw City was pretty flat, so I'm

625
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 2: not really sure I'm buying into Southampton here either.

626
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the final game of Wednesday,

627
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: Aston Villa hosts Leads. I don't really have much for this.

628
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,479
Speaker 1: I think my projection is pretty close to what the

629
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: actual line is. Awstonville has their performances and the results

630
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: have been pretty good under Steven Gerrard, but you look

631
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: at the underlying metrics, they're really not that impressive. You know,

632
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: it doesn't really match up to what their actual results are.

633
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: I'm going to be passing on this one. Do you

634
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: have anything for aston Villa versus Leads?

635
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a lean toward Leads, and I have

636
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: a like on the under The two teams in the

637
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: league that have had the worst goalkeeping shot stopping wise

638
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: in the entire league are playing each other, and that's

639
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 2: Leads with Mela and somehow Anie Martinez. He of course

640
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 2: he had the howler against United. These two defenses are

641
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 2: both underrated, and I know Leads defense is awful, but

642
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: so much of their numbers, there's season long numbers that

643
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: are baked into what you know, my numbers and your

644
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: numbers go into and what we talk about total XG

645
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: and whatnot. So much of that is skewed by a

646
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: handful of games where they had to play the Academy,

647
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 2: especially when they had to play these awfully depleted lineups,

648
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: and they happened to run into their toughest part of

649
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 2: their schedule where they were getting Arsenal and City and

650
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 2: they gave up I think it was ten goals and

651
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 2: two games, and they ran into Liverpool who trucked them.

652
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 2: So they've had a weird run where they've gotten pasted

653
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: really badly by some of the Big six teams. But

654
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 2: if you look at the other results, they haven't been

655
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: nearly as bad. You know, they beat west Ham three

656
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: to two, they beat Burnley three to one, They were

657
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 2: very competitive at Chelsea and only lost because of two

658
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 2: penalties that went against them. They played a draw with Brentford,

659
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: and then if you go back to early in the

660
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 2: season we talked about it, they just weren't finishing any

661
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 2: chances despite the defense giving up and conceding goals. Like

662
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: it was last year. They just weren't finishing at the

663
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: levels they were last year. That's why they felt on

664
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 2: the table. Now we get Villa, who has been pretty

665
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 2: efficient in front of net despite not creating a lot

666
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 2: of chances under Gerrard, and I don't know how long

667
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 2: that's going to last. I know they added Catino. He's

668
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: pretty good, you know. Obviously he showed that in the

669
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 2: United game. They bosst it, but again they played Everton

670
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: in a great spot at home and only had point

671
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 2: seven expected goals and scored off a corner on a

672
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: header by Ammi Bundia, the smallest guy on the pitch,

673
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 2: So they really didn't create a ton against Everton, and

674
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: that was Everton in turmoil, who's been awful on the road.

675
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 2: So there's some concerning indicators. My numbers show value on

676
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 2: both the under and on leads. We'll get to why

677
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: I like leads a little bit later, but overall, I

678
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: think leads defense and Villa's defense are both underrated here.

679
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 2: This strikes me as as a pretty cagey affair, and

680
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: I don't think Villa is quite as or should be

681
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: quite as favorite as they are right now. Based on

682
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 2: my numbers, I've got them right around even money to

683
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 2: win Villa's performances. I mentioned this our last part, but

684
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: only around They're only creating around one expectacle per match

685
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 2: under Gerard. Obviously their defense is improved, but the offensive

686
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: numbers are really not there, though you'd expect based on

687
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 2: their results that damage agains Everton was interesting because Everton

688
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 2: didn't have a shot in the first half and obviously

689
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 2: aston Villa got the goal off of the corner, and

690
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 2: then Everton pretty much dominated the entire second half. So

691
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: I agree with you if aston Villa goes up early here.

692
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: Obviously it's scary whenever Leeds goes down to potentially maybe

693
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: play them live. But I do think that maybe there's

694
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 2: potential to play Leads live or potentially, like you said,

695
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 2: as an underdog.

696
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the final match. Thursday two forty five.

697
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: My Arsenal Gunners are on the road at Molineux against Wolves. Anthony.

698
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: I'll let you kick this one off first and then

699
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 1: I'll give my thoughts.

700
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, this Wolves luck box defense needs to stop. I mean,

701
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: this is ridiculous now and they conceded two goals against

702
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 2: Brentford last time out. They did concede a goal to Norwich,

703
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 2: but they have conceded sixteen goals from twenty seven expected.

704
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: I know we've talked about the Wolves attack a ton

705
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 2: and how they have all this regression coming, but this

706
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 2: defense has been unbelievable. Everybody keeps talking about how they

707
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 2: are this incredible defense, and they're a good defense, but

708
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: they're expected goals. Say they're about the sixth best in

709
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 2: the league, worse than Brighton, worse than Liverpool, worse than Chelsea,

710
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 2: worst than Spurs, worst in City and I'm really not

711
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: quite buying into the idea that Jose Saw is the

712
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 2: greatest goalkeeper of the world has ever seen. You know,

713
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: they don't concede a lot of big scoring chances, but

714
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: Arsenal is a team that kind of overwhelms you with shots,

715
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: not necessarily big chances, especially in the Lacazette being the

716
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,720
Speaker 2: way he is. They don't get a ton of huge chances.

717
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 2: They tend to, you know, get shots from everybody else,

718
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 2: the Martinelli's, the smith throws, the Oda guards and the

719
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,760
Speaker 2: soccers of the world. They don't really have one primary,

720
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: main big chance getter. So I think this sets up

721
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 2: again Wolves are now an overteam We've talked about this

722
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: on the pod to be a pretty open game that

723
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 2: features a bunch of chances at both ends. I still

724
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 2: have question marks about this Arsenal defense, which in and

725
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: of itself has been a bit fortunate as well. They've

726
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: only conceded twenty five goalspit over twenty nine expected allowed.

727
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 2: So I'm playing both teams to score minus one fifteen.

728
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 2: It's a little lower than I thought. I think this

729
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 2: is a competitive match. I lean toward Wolves, but again,

730
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: this defense is due to get pounded, like pounded pounded

731
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 2: at some point, and I think, you know, they've got

732
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 2: some games coming up against Big six teams. They got

733
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 2: lucky to not concede more to when they played both

734
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 2: Liverpool and City and consecutive games. Then they got Chelsea

735
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 2: in a weak lineup spot. They've got Tottenham, Arsenal Lester

736
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 2: west Ham the next four games after this Arsenal game,

737
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 2: and I think there's a big chance that those goal

738
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: numbers conceded start going way up.

739
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I should have mentioned it. Off the top. Arsenal

740
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: is a plus one twenty favorite on the road. Wolves

741
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 1: is sitting around plus two to fifty five in the

742
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 1: draw plus two twenty five. I hate this because I

743
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,959
Speaker 1: think Arsenal's overvalued in the market. Keller has this team

744
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 1: improving greatly the past few months. They've been playing so

745
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,320
Speaker 1: much better than they have at the beginning of the season,

746
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,240
Speaker 1: but this line, to me is it's a little crazy.

747
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: I understand the over performance from the Wolves defense, but

748
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 1: Arsenal's been really bad away from home this season, and

749
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 1: obviously a lot of that is due to the fact

750
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 1: that they got completely thrashed by both City and Liverpool,

751
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: but minus five point one expected goal diffrenchial allowing one

752
00:35:57,760 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 1: point eight expected goals per match on the road. That's

753
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 1: not good. And while Wolves, on the other hand, has

754
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: been incredibly solid at home in the Premier League, they've

755
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 1: only lost once in their last seven matches. If you remember,

756
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: Wolves lost their first three home matches of the season

757
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: to Tottenham in a match that was pretty even Manchester

758
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 1: United which they completely smashed them and lost one nothing,

759
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: and then gave up a penalty and a mistake to

760
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 1: Brentford and lost to nothing. Outside of that, in the

761
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: last seven matches, they've only lost once to Liverpool that

762
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: who scored at the death, but obviously should have won

763
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 1: that game based on how many expected goals they created.

764
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,959
Speaker 1: We've seen it in the past. Wolves tends to play

765
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 1: very compact. They don't really press above the halfway line.

766
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: Arsenal when they have to try to break down low blocks,

767
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: they tend to struggle a bit. If you look at

768
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 1: their matches against Burnley, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Brentford, Arsenal really

769
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: does tend to struggle against those teams that will play

770
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: low blocks, which I expect actually Wolves to do for

771
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 1: at least a large portion of this match. So, like

772
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 1: you mentioned, Arsenal gets a ton of shots, but the

773
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 1: low quality, and it's not like the type of chance

774
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 1: they get when they play teams that want to play open,

775
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 1: like for example, Leeds. Obviously that match was against the Academy,

776
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 1: but still when Arsenal gets to play open teams, they

777
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 1: tend to play a lot better. I don't know what

778
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:19,320
Speaker 1: to make of Wolves offense. I'm done trying to figure

779
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: out what if they're an over team, if they're going

780
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: to improve at some point. They create over two expected

781
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: goals against Southampton for the first time since September, and

782
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: they followed that up by creating point two expected goals

783
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 1: against Brentford on the road. Before the break, and they

784
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,919
Speaker 1: were shut out this past weekend in the FA Cup

785
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 1: by Norwich of all teams, and they played a pretty

786
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: strong lineup, so I do think Wolves gets a result

787
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 1: from this match. I think Arsenal is overvalued in the market.

788
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: I have this match projected really close to a pick them,

789
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 1: so I'm taking Wolves plus half a goal at minus

790
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: one thirty five. It pains me to bet against Arsenal,

791
00:37:55,680 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: but they're overvalued in the market here. I don't how

792
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 1: anybody can play Arsenal at plus one twenty on the

793
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 1: road against a really Obviously it's a defense. It's overperforming,

794
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 1: but you know, twenty seven expected goals in twenty.

795
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 2: They're still a good defense.

796
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: It's still really good.

797
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: Like it's yeah, I'm not saying I'm not saying Wolves

798
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 2: are some bad defense out here, but I'm just saying

799
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 2: that they have the fewest. I mean, you know, it's

800
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 2: just ridiculous not and it's not sustainable one over the

801
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 2: course of time. You can you can get lucky in

802
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 2: the short term where teams just don't take any of

803
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 2: their chances, and that's what's happened. On top of the

804
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 2: fact they're a good defensive team. But does anybody really

805
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,799
Speaker 2: think they're as good defensively as City that the numbers say.

806
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: I don't believe that.

807
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 1: No, no, yeah, what it is is basically they they've

808
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: conceded a ton of expected goals to really good teams,

809
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: which you could make the case that Arsenal is up there,

810
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't put Arsenal up in the level of

811
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: Liverpool or man City who created you know, Liverpool created

812
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 1: two point five and man City created three point five

813
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: and pretty much every other match they've held their opponent

814
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: under two expected goals, so a little bit that it's inflated.

815
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: But again, they're still running pretty hot and I I

816
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: really don't just don't know what to make a wolves

817
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: right now or what or what what this team is.

818
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: So I'm playing plus plus a half minus one thirty

819
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: five because they're good home performances in Arsenal tends to

820
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: struggle on the road. So, uh, that's it for the

821
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 1: slate of Premier League matches. As always, even though it

822
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 1: is only nine matches in the midweek, we will give

823
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: you an underdog that will probably painfully lose, just like

824
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: uh mind did this weekend.

825
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 2: Another goal.

826
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: That's four for me. I'm gonna I'm gonna go look

827
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 1: up I'm gonna go look up the stats afterwards, and

828
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 1: I'll put it out on Twitter to see how many

829
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 1: it is. But I think it's for underdogs. I've had

830
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 1: that have had a two goal lead and blown it

831
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 1: and and I think I ended up a lot of

832
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: them ended up losing too.

833
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 2: Which a lot of I know Roma and I remember

834
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 2: Van did it, Vanetsia did it. I can't remember there

835
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: were there was definitely an Internetsi in there lead uh, I.

836
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: Can't maybe it was athalatso I can't remember during the

837
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: mid week or maybe that was you. Well, i'll put

838
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: it out on Twitter, and we'll also put out our

839
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: records for the underdogs as well. We'll get the account

840
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 1: and then we'll do a nice audit of our records.

841
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: But this is the part of the podcast where Michael

842
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: usually warns you that these teams are underdogs for a reason.

843
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 1: Be careful with these because these two teams that were

844
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: about to give you we do think there's value on them,

845
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 1: but it's also they're not usually expected to win. But

846
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 1: we do think that the percentage chance of them winning

847
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 1: is better than what the market has them at and

848
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 1: That's ultimately what we try to do here on the

849
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 1: Action Network and on the Wonder Goal podcast is we

850
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 1: try to give you positive expected value bets. So Anthony,

851
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,959
Speaker 1: why don't you give the people your underdog for the week?

852
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Leeds plus three twenty. Leeds had a nice upset

853
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: win for me against West Ham a couple of weeks ago,

854
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: and they've been a generally underrated team. I think they

855
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 2: were overrated coming into the season. They struggled early in

856
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 2: the year, then they went through a period of injury

857
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: crisis where nobody was availed when they were quite poor.

858
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 2: But they're starting to turn the corner. They've had some

859
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: better performances. I think they're getting a Villa team here

860
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 2: who is pretty overrated. In attack, they've ridden their luck

861
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: a lot in terms of finishing chances when they're not

862
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 2: really creating a ton and this leads defense despite it

863
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 2: being poor. Generally has been unlucky in the sense that

864
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 2: their goalkeeper has vastly underperformed his expected goal numbers in

865
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: terms of shot stopping. Melie is an average Premier League

866
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,320
Speaker 2: keeper based on his overall data and his overall body

867
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: of work in this league. He was overperforming last year

868
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: now he's underperforming, you expect some regression there and so

869
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 2: I think Leads at plus three twenty are a pretty

870
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 2: good bet. I have him at plus two seventy. I

871
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 2: also project Villa some value on them to win or draw,

872
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,320
Speaker 2: and I also like the under so I think this

873
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,479
Speaker 2: is going to be a tight game, and at plus

874
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 2: three twenty, I'm willing to take a shot that Leads

875
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: will get a good result here and maybe even pull

876
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:54,240
Speaker 2: off an upset.

877
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: I love it. I'm going to go a team that

878
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,919
Speaker 1: has only won one match all year in the Premier

879
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: League Burnley plus five hundred at home at Turf Moore

880
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: against Manchester United. I think this is a good spot

881
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: for Burnley. They're going to play a much better lineup

882
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 1: than they did against United during the festive fixtures. Maxwell

883
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 1: Corney has obviously improved them a ton, while White Corse

884
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: had a good debut against Watford this past weekend. Nick

885
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 1: Pope will be in goal when he wasn't against United

886
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 1: the last time. I've already mentioned it. Basically all Burnley's

887
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 1: issues this season have come on the road minus ten

888
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: point in expected Goldiffrenchal on the road, but at home

889
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 1: plus one expected Goldiffrenchal and they're only allowing one point

890
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: zero eight expected goals per match. The Seandich teams they

891
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,359
Speaker 1: typically allow a ton of shots, but they keep them

892
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: low quality, and they're doing that not at the level

893
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 1: they have in the past, but at a pretty good level.

894
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: This season. They're dead last and shots lowed for ninety

895
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: but seventh in a big scoring chances allowed. Manchester United,

896
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: I believe is the most overrated team in the Premier League.

897
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 1: They have a minus one expected gold differential, but they're

898
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,359
Speaker 1: sitting in fourth place since Ragnick took over plus three

899
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 1: point two expected gold differential with only one match versus

900
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 1: the top seven, and they've been horrific defensively away from

901
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: home one point expected goals allowed per match, So I

902
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: think this is a good spot for Burnley to potentially

903
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: grab all three points. I only have Manchester I projected

904
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 1: at plus one oh four and Burnley around plus three fifty,

905
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 1: so I like the Clarits at plus five hundred. All right,

906
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 1: let's move on to our best bets for the midweek

907
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 1: Premier League slate. Anthony, where are you going?

908
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 2: We just talked about it. Wolves and Arsenal both teams

909
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 2: to score. Yes, at minus one point fifteen. Just went

910
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 2: into this at nauseum. But Wolves defensively have been the

911
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 2: luckiest team, not just in the Premier League but in

912
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: all of Europe. They've only conceded sixteen goals from twenty

913
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 2: seven and change expected, so they've been incredibly lucky. Part

914
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 2: of that has come from their goalkeeper, Jose Saw, who

915
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,760
Speaker 2: has been the best goalkeeper in Europe based on expected

916
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 2: goals allowed and actual goals allowed shot stopping wise when

917
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 2: you look at the post shot numbers. Also, teams are

918
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 2: just not taking their answers against Wolves despite creating plenty

919
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 2: of them, so there's a lot of regression coming for

920
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 2: this defense. Wolves attack also has some positive regressions still coming.

921
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 2: They're still underperforming. They're expected goals despite being a pretty

922
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 2: mediocre attack. But Arsenal has some weaknesses in transition defensively,

923
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: especially when they've been on the road where they have

924
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 2: not been nearly as good this season as they've been

925
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 2: at the Emirates. So I think Wolves, we'll get at

926
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 2: them and transition, they'll win the ball. They like to

927
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 2: press a good amount in their own half and they

928
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: have the pieces to be a good counter attacking side,

929
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 2: so I think they'll get one on the break. And

930
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 2: like I said, Wolves defensively are due to concede a

931
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 2: ton of goals here. Just looking at the numbers, it

932
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 2: is not possible to sustain what they have done in

933
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 2: the first two thirds of the season. So I'm expecting

934
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 2: a lot of regression. I'm expecting goals in this game

935
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 2: minus one to fifteen. Both teams to score.

936
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, I'm going to go Manchester City Brentford

937
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 1: under three and a half goals at minus one ten.

938
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: When these two teams met during the festive fixture portion

939
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 1: of the season, Brentford put up maybe the best defensive

940
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 1: performance against Manchester City all season long. The only allowed

941
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: City seventeen shot creating actions and only twenty four touches

942
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 1: in the penalty. That's the lowest output from City all

943
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 1: season in any competition. Manchester City is back to playing

944
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 1: their slow, pragmatic, possession based style of play that we

945
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: saw later towards the later of last season. They're averaging

946
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: around sixty seven percent possession in the Premier League. It's

947
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: really hard for me to see how Brentford is going

948
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 1: to score in this match. Holding that much possession. Brentford

949
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: is seventeenth in shots per ninety and nineteenth in box

950
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: entries in the Premier League. I only have two point

951
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:43,240
Speaker 1: seven goals projected for this one. On average, Manchester City

952
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: matches are averaging around two point nine expected goals and

953
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 1: only thirty five percent of their Premier League matches have

954
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 1: gone over three and a half goals. So I like

955
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 1: the price of under three and a half goals at

956
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: minus one ten. All right, that'll do it for another

957
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 1: episode of Wonder Goal. Make sure to subscribe to Win

958
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 1: or Goal wherever you get your podcasts. Leave the five

959
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 1: star review. Say something negative if you want to about us,

960
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 1: but just make sure that it's five star review. Download

961
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. Follow Anthony and myself for all

962
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: of our plays in the midweek and the weekends. Make

963
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,760
Speaker 1: sure to check out the actionwork dot com and previous

964
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 1: for every single Premier League match, along with my projections

965
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 1: and best bets. We'll be back on Thursday morning breaking

966
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: down the entire weekend slate across Europe. So for Anthony

967
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: and myself, see you all on Thursday mornings.