1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. When we had the 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: Bank of England this morning, I just wanted to point 8 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: out one thing. Uh, I love I never know what 9 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: to say bitcoin pricing per It's really per coin. Greg 10 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: just said per bit, which is funny, but a bitcoin 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: is made up of about a million bits, so I 12 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: was going with the old per token that could work. 13 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: Per token works also as as does per coin. Just 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 1: saying per coin it sounds there's an echo, you know, 15 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: but um, there are many, many, many bits in the 16 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: line of code that make up one. Speaking of a point, 17 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: it's per I'm gonna go with token down seven fifty 18 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: dollars or one point five, So there you go. All right, 19 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: let's check in with Megan Horneman, director of portfolio Strategy 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: at Verden's Capital Advisors. Megan, thanks so much for joining 21 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: us here. Just give us your thoughts of what we've 22 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: heard and seen and read from various central banks over 23 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: the past twenty four hours. How has that changed, if 24 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 1: at all, your outlook for next year. Um, it hasn't 25 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: changed our outlook. It wasn't a complete surprise what they did. 26 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: I mean, they kind of told us what they would 27 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: do when the Fed pivoted, when they dropped transitory last 28 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: week or the week before. I think what they're doing 29 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: is necessary. I think it's it's going to the Sometimes 30 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: that short term pain helps with the long term gain. 31 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: We need to get a little bit more aggressive about 32 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: pulling back some of these emergency measures. Quantitative easing, for sure, 33 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: we haven't needed that for some time now, we've been 34 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: at that emergency situation. So I do agree with what 35 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: they're doing there from the inflation standpoint as well, getting 36 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: a little bit more aggressive now saying potentially three rate 37 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: hikes next year. This is what the market wanted to hear, 38 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: and you're seeing that being reflected in the equity market. 39 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: If they had disappointed in coming out in any more 40 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,959 Speaker 1: debbish type of a tone, I think you actually would 41 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: have seen a very big different story on the equity markets. 42 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,519 Speaker 1: I think you would have seen them sell off because 43 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: there's that overwhelming fear that the FED maybe behind the curve. 44 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: And what they're doing right now is showing that they're 45 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: they're very um, observant of what's going on with the 46 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: inflation environment and ready to hit to do what they 47 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: need to do to tackle that. And um, do you 48 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 1: have faith that they'll be able to do that without 49 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: derailing economic growth? That's the that's the biggest question, right 50 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: what can we do? Also, I didn't mean to use 51 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: the word faith. I mean, you know, do you do 52 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: you expect that? Yeah? No, no, do not worry about that. Um. 53 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 1: So I think right now this is a very good step. 54 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: I'm I'm glad they got a little bit more aggressive. 55 00:02:57,280 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: The biggest thing that we will have to see in 56 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: the first half of next year to see if they 57 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 1: can successfully do this is, um, is there something that's 58 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: going to give? Will the demand side of it from 59 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: the consumers start to slow a bit? Um? Will that 60 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: help us catch up on the supply side of things 61 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: that may help alleviate some of the inflationary pressures in 62 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 1: the second half of next year. That time will tell. 63 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: With the consumer. We saw retail sales yesterday they were 64 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: a little bit disappointing. There is some evidence that the 65 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: higher prices from either the gas pump or the food prices, 66 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: this is starting to affect consumers. You're seeing it with 67 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: credit card debt pick up as well. So if we 68 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: see some poolback in that demand side of things, then 69 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: the FET is doing the right thing. It's doing its job. 70 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: I still think it's a little bit too early to tell. 71 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: Can we successfully land this economy in in Megan, So, 72 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: given that backdrop, are you suggesting to your clients in 73 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: that they focus on again some many cyclical names that 74 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: will I guess perform well in a reopening economy, or 75 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: kind of sticking with a tried and true big cap 76 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: growth names. Um No, we're still recommending to stick with 77 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: those cyclical type of sectors that will benefit from the 78 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: global recovery. These also are the areas of the market 79 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: that have lagged over the past six months by a 80 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: significant amount. They from evaluation perspective, they're more they're more 81 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: attractive than those large cap growth, mega cap tech type 82 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 1: of names. And keep in mind that a lot of 83 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:37,559 Speaker 1: these very expensive investments, whether you're looking at mega tech 84 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 1: or some of these momentum type of investments that you've 85 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: seen materialized in two. They've been hurt over the past week, 86 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: and that's been primarily because of the fact that the 87 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: easy money policy that has fueled some speculative, speculative types 88 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: of trades over the past year, that's going to be 89 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 1: fading in the two. So you're seeing some profit taking there. 90 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: You're seeing that today as well in seeing a rotation 91 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: back into those areas that actually have values that can 92 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: benefit from UM not only higher interest rates when you're 93 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: looking at financials, they can benefit from the resumption of 94 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 1: economic growth with industrials. So those are some areas that 95 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 1: we still focus on going into next year. Drum Pal 96 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: didn't seem terribly concerned about oh, Macron, although drinking havoc 97 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: in Europe, UM, how does that factor into your strategy? 98 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: So UM, we're going to deal with the different variants 99 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: of this virus forever. This this isn't going away. What 100 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 1: I would like to see INO is that we learned 101 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: to live with it as opposed to locking down. Right now, 102 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: we're still in that concern of lockdown phase. But if 103 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: we can learn to live with this and get through 104 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: these humps, because we will deal with more variants this, 105 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: Oh Macron. Apparently there is a knee jerk reaction at first. 106 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: That's because it's more transmissible, it's more dangerous. We're not 107 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: seeing that right now. Um, it is definitely I've it's 108 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 1: been more transmissible, but we're not seeing it necessarily increase 109 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: the Hospitalization's. The one thing that we think will be 110 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: a big focus in is therapeutics for for coronavirus. This 111 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: will help us to get further to that living with 112 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: it as opposed to locking down because of it. So 113 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a focus in two. 114 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 1: I'm not concerned at this point of Amcron's railing on 115 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: the economic recovery. All right, Megan, thank you so much 116 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: for joining us. Megan Hornham and director of Portfolio Strategy 117 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: of Verden's Capital Advisers, talking about locking down just coming 118 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: across the Bloomberg Terminal City tells New York, New Jersey 119 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 1: staffers to work from home again. So we'll see how 120 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: this plays out as a COVID nineteen continues and the 121 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: Amicron variant is the driver here. I want to bring 122 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: in Mark Douglas now, he is the president and CEO 123 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: at Mountain. He works with Ryan Reynolds to put out 124 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: ads like the one we saw over the weekend with 125 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 1: Chris Noth still alive and well and writing his Peloton. 126 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: Um bark talked to me about that fast turnaround. Did 127 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: you have any heads up that um, the sex in 128 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: the city, Uh, you know, death was going to happen 129 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: in the days proceeding. Um none, So we had no 130 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: head up, and Peloton had no head up, And we 131 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: learned about it just like everyone else by just watching 132 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: television and um, you know, in the basically on the show, 133 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: HBO essentially implies that exercise is not healthy. And because 134 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: one of the main characters missed the big dies and 135 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: so UM, Peloton had just become a customer with a service. 136 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: We new service we have we called Creative as a 137 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: subscription where we can just mobilize quickly to include Creative 138 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: and the media by and we actually on Saturday flew 139 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: to New York and Ryan is a chief creative officer 140 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: essentially UM with it with the team here, his team 141 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: and Mountains just wrote this ad and UM filmed it 142 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: and edited it and released it on Sunday. And I 143 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: woke up Monday to all this news. So it was 144 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: pretty amazing. Yeah, yeah, no advance about this whatsoever. Yeah, 145 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 1: that was extraordinary. And what kind of said to me 146 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: a little bit, Ryan, is we often talked to you, 147 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, often talked to you about you know, digital 148 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: ad tech, digital advertising. It's still the importance of a 149 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: good old TV ad can really generate a lot of buzz. Yeah, absolutely, 150 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 1: I mean it's something I say all the time. And 151 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: a Mountain Wars software platform and essentially um distribute television 152 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: media commercials on streaming media. But I always say, you know, 153 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: it's advertising first, mad you know, the age of Madmen, 154 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: all of that, it matters, and the message matters and 155 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: so um and this literally essentially proved it. I mean, 156 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: nothing beat just putting something and of consumers that is 157 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,839 Speaker 1: and attaining and watchable and and you know that that 158 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: they can really consume and enjoy. And that's exactly what 159 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: happened here. So it was. I can't stress how how 160 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:18,599 Speaker 1: unbelievable it was between Saturday and essentially Monday morning. It 161 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,079 Speaker 1: is pretty amazing. By the way, do people Mark, do 162 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: they often confuse you with Brian not yet, has not yet, 163 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: I've heard, but I was on CNBC with him. Well 164 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: maybe I shouldn't mention that on Blue Work the other day, 165 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: and I thought I was holding up pretty well. We 166 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: are platform agnostic, but you know, speaking of TV, and 167 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 1: Paul makes an interesting point, there's a lot of people 168 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 1: who still watch the boob tube, UM, but most of 169 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: us are going to see your ads on Instagram and 170 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: YouTube rather than television. Right, where do you get the 171 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: most exposure? Right? So, so from Mountains, we're basically just 172 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 1: how television is new it's on demand, it's streamed. UM. 173 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: That's where Mountains delivers the ad experience, the word performance 174 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: platform for streaming television UM, and any brand can come 175 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: to our website and sign up, you know, essentially use 176 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: our platform and reach consumers. So we we are not 177 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: on We obviously use social media ourselves, but our platform 178 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: is on streaming. It's on when you're watching ABC, or 179 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: you're watching the Bloomberg chatl on television or you know 180 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: any essentially involved the teaving networks in America. But not well, UM, 181 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: I think you know, we do have a ded we 182 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,599 Speaker 1: do serve an NBC. It sounds like we shouldn't be, 183 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: so I'll keep that in mind. Mark, give us a 184 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: sense of kind of how your conversations with your clients 185 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: have kind of evolved over the past couple of years 186 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: of this pandemic, is it How have they changed? If 187 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 1: at all, It's it's the main thing. It's all about results. 188 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that we're in kind of a 189 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: golden age of television. It's just so much great content. 190 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: I don't know anyone who you know, actively watches TV 191 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 1: who can literally keep up with all the shows that 192 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: are available on all the great content. Um. But for 193 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: the advertisers, what really matters, especially during the pandemic, is 194 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: they have to have provable results. And so that's kind 195 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: of been the big ship to see this big shift 196 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: going from brand advertising, UM, where companies just kind of 197 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 1: take a leap of faith in terms of results to 198 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 1: that spend so now kind of performance advertising and so 199 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: you know, Mountain we've jumped really into performance advertising space. 200 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: We may create a front and center by merging with 201 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: Maxim MEFA Bryant's company, and um, it's just been a great, 202 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: you know, kind of great journey in doing that. It's 203 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: fantastic content, and UM, it doesn't seem to me that 204 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: there are a lot of people as smart and good 205 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: looking as Ryan Reynolds. It seems unfair almost that did 206 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: you do you shign him with your deal? Do you 207 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: get a piece of him? I know Ryan is chief 208 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: creative officer of Mountains UM and obviously founded Maximum Effort, 209 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: and you know, I'm touching on just a small part 210 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: of his old career. UM. It's been amazing UM to 211 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: work with him and continues to be amazing, and he recently, 212 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: you know, kind of took a sabbatical from films to 213 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: just focus on building mountains and and the other things 214 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 1: he has going on. So it's UM, I feel privileged 215 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: to be able to UM have that kind of talent. 216 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 1: And you know, one of the things on going back 217 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: to Peloton and the ad that we put out this weekend, 218 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's almost an unfair advantage to have Ryan. 219 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: It's a chief grative officer and and the team UM 220 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: Maximum Efforts. It's now part of noun to see that, 221 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: So it's it's UM. Uh. You know, we're just a 222 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 1: big belief in creative as part of media and you know, 223 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: UM bad media, so we're it's just it's kind of 224 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: amazing to watch Mark. It's great having you on. I 225 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,719 Speaker 1: always love talking to you. Thanks so much for dropping by. 226 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 1: Mark Douglas there, president and CEO at Mountain. Interest rates 227 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 1: are on the rise. We saw the action by the 228 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: Beau the Bank of England today. We heard FED Chairman 229 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: Pal yesterday as he talks about accelerating tapering and then 230 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: raising rates next year and into three. What is a 231 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: fixed income manager to do? Where the opportunities in that 232 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 1: kind of environment. Let's check in them with a pro 233 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: Kevin Nicholson, Global Fixed Income Co c i OH. He's 234 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 1: also co head of Investment committee at Riverfront Investment Group. Kevin, 235 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. All right, given 236 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 1: what we now know from an interest rate perspective, what's 237 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: your outlook for My outlook for two is that we 238 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: should see the ten year move higher by year. In 239 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: our base case scenario is for the ten year to 240 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 1: yield two percent by the end of the year UM. 241 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: And as far as where we're looking for opportunities, UM, 242 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: we're going to focus on trying to get some higher 243 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: yields into the portfolio. We're going to look at high yield, 244 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: even though UM we would stay up at the higher 245 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: quality high yield at this juncture because as the FED 246 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: begins its tightening cycle, I think it will put some 247 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: pressure on some of the lower yielding companies out there, 248 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: but you think it's safe. But you think it's safe 249 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: to go back in the water now. I mean the 250 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: second half of November was rough, um, not just for 251 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: high yield, but for I G two and UM. Now 252 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: now you think uh investors will cotton too, that they're 253 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: gonna need some of that yield. Well, I think that. 254 00:14:58,160 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: I mean when you look at where treasures are heal 255 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: thing right now, I mean we have the tenure at 256 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: a one forty two, you're not really you're not keeping 257 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: up with inflation, and so you have to look at 258 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: a place that you're at least going to get closer 259 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: to it. Um. There's very few places in the in 260 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: the fixing income market that can keep up with inflation 261 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: at at current levels. A matter of fact, there's only 262 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: one place you can really go, and that's to the 263 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: tips market. UM. So from my perspective going into next year, 264 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: we have to continue to be underweight fix income. If 265 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: you're looking at it in a balanced portfolio, you're going 266 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: to continue to have your duration shorter because interest rates 267 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: are going up, so you don't want to, you know, 268 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: put more pressure on your portfolio. By having a long 269 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: duration in there at this point. So, Kevin, if I'm 270 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: searching for yield and I venture into the high old market, 271 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: what are some of the sectors, uh, that you guys 272 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: think will be interesting next year? I mean, if we're 273 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: going to continue to uh look at you know, your 274 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: consumer UM services more from like your financial m consumer 275 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: financial services, as well as we will look you know 276 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: in the high yell space at energy see where how 277 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: that goes. UM. Those are the probably the main UM 278 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: areas that we will look at going into the year. 279 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: And as if we get past this COVID uh you 280 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: know lockdown that we're seeing um transpire over in Europe, UM, 281 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: we will start also looking at some of your leisure 282 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: UM stocks more for the excuse me, bonds that are 283 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: more for the reopening is I guess el macron must 284 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: be one of the biggest worries other than the FED. Yes, UM, 285 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: I think that you know, I'm not concerned about on 286 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: the cron so much here in the US because they 287 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: don't think that we're going to shut down our economy again. 288 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: But when I look across the pond and you know, 289 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: work for fixed income ideas that are outside of the US, 290 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 1: I do indeed worry about Um. You know, I'm a 291 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: cron because they're tending to shut down. Their economies are 292 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: a lot faster than you know we're thinking about in 293 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: the US. I think we've learned our lesson and we're 294 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 1: just gonna live with it going forward. All right, you're 295 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,880 Speaker 1: not the first person to tell us that today, Kevin, 296 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: it seems to be a consensus for you. Kevin Nicholson 297 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 1: is a global fixed income co c i O and 298 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: co head of the Investment Committee at Riverfront Investment Group, 299 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: giving us his outlook for two as well as his 300 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 1: take on what we heard from Jerome Powell and the 301 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:48,959 Speaker 1: FED yesterday and uh, the current situation with the coronavirus. 302 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: As promise, we're gonna bring you Marcus show mur chief 303 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: economist at pine Bridge Investment, to talk about the hawk 304 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 1: is pivot first off and then um and then Marcus, 305 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: we saw the b o E actually go the whole 306 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: nine yards or almost I guess, fifteen basis point points 307 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: of an increase. What do you think about these central 308 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: banks getting more and more hawkish on inflation? They guys, 309 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: it's nice to be back on the show. Um, Yes, 310 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,360 Speaker 1: what a what a few days or two days here 311 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: for central bank watchers. I mean, we knew that this 312 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: would be busy when we saw the schedule that everything 313 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: was punching up here. The week for most people, I 314 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 1: guess shutdown for Christmas, but that would get so much 315 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: action probably was a little bit of a surprise. Um 316 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: yet the Fed clearly in a hawk ish pivot. The 317 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: Bank of England probably even more surprising and more confusing, 318 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: after disappointing expectations last month where they was supposed to 319 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: raise rate it didn't for kind of no really apparent reason, 320 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 1: and then this time with storing COVID cases again clouding 321 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: the economic out brogan p mind numbers this morning not 322 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: particularly exciting. They decided to do race rates. So I 323 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 1: think what we're having here's just an environment where central 324 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: bank communication has become very, very inconsistent. And I think 325 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 1: that's something that I would have thought as an economist. 326 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: I'm not a portformio manager, but as an economist, I 327 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: would have thought that would really impact financial markets and 328 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,880 Speaker 1: that we would start to pric in greater risk premiums. 329 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,360 Speaker 1: Again for central bank surprises, but so far they look 330 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 1: at the markets, none of that really is happening. Marcus, 331 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: what is your view of inflation as we head into 332 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:40,360 Speaker 1: the transitory term has been retired by the US FED chair, 333 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: But what is your view? Well, I mean, there is 334 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: the idea that inflation can be transitory was always just 335 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: out there to placate markets. I think the central banks 336 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 1: were just too afraid to suddenly talk about inflation as 337 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,239 Speaker 1: a problem, but that could mean the financial markets. That's 338 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: why they sort of came up with transiti aations. Never 339 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: transitory inflation is one of the worst economic trends that 340 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:11,199 Speaker 1: makes income inequality worse than anything else. Yes, we know 341 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: it's kind of good for debt because you know, if 342 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: you have a lot of phenomenal debt, higher inflation eats 343 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: a way that that amount of debt faster vality to 344 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: GDP over income. But with our pivot away from that 345 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: towards more income in equality related problems, inflation is really 346 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: really bad. It makes which people richer and poor people poor. 347 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 1: That's a huge problem. So that the fact finally pivots. 348 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: So this is not a big surprise. And we know 349 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 1: from previous inflation periods that even if it lasts only 350 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: twelve months or eighteen months, it has an impact. So 351 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: the call it. To have called it transitory at the beginning, 352 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 1: I think basically was an attempt by central banks to 353 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: play defense in an environment where they are so far 354 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: leaning towards excessive emergency stimulus that couldn't really dial back 355 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: that may that fast, so they rolled up this word transitory. 356 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: And the fact that they actually that Powell even used 357 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: the word let's retire that expression or made me really 358 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 1: cringe last time, because it meant it has served its 359 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: purpose and it took this purpose to confuse you all 360 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: or placate you all. But now we don't need to 361 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: do this anymore because we're ready to raise rate, so 362 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: we could retire in inverted commas that were transitory. Um, 363 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 1: I think it was never actually an honest description of 364 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: the inflation backdrop. You hate inflation almost as much as 365 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan did. He said he said inflation is as 366 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: violent as a mugger, as frightening as an arm drobber, 367 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 1: and as deadly as a hit man. What I've been 368 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 1: thinking about a lot lately, Marcus, is what it forces 369 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: investors to do, Especially with so much liquidity, so much 370 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: cash out there, you don't want to just leave it 371 00:21:55,280 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: in dollars and you know, have it being reduced by 372 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 1: a tent every year. Right, Um, you need to put 373 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 1: it to work, and when you need to put it 374 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 1: to work, that's when dangerous things can happen. Well, that 375 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 1: is true, but that isn't it exactly what we're doing, 376 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: or what investors are doing with the market is doing. 377 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: I mean, why would you buy at ten year bond 378 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 1: at one point four percent when the current inflation wright 379 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: is six And yeah, eventually we will get back to 380 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: one point four percent, but but who really believes that 381 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: over the next ten years inflation will ever be below 382 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: one point four percent so that you can average to 383 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: something that makes sense in terms of the novel returns 384 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: and interest in getting on that investment in a ten 385 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: year bond visa. The the inflation that will eat up 386 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: the investments you just made in that bond um and 387 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: a lot of money is still going into those markets, 388 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 1: a lot of money is sustaining those markets. It really 389 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 1: tells you have to be in equities, right. That's the 390 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: inflation story being housing all the assets that have some 391 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: inflation protection because that it reacts to nominal economic activity, 392 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: which is what equity markets are doing. That's what the 393 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: money is that's what the market the money is still going, 394 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: but it is not that that's what everybody is doing. 395 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: I'm surprised that we have not seen a greater reaction 396 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: in the bond market as a result of all this 397 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 1: inflation and the fact that the Fed is removing the 398 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,640 Speaker 1: policy support four bonds. Hey, Marcus, thank you so much 399 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: for joining us. Really appreciate getting your thoughts and perspective 400 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: here as we try to digest, uh, some of what 401 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: we've heard from the Federal Reserve yesterday in the ecb 402 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: UH and the Bank of England today. Marcus Schomer is 403 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 1: a chief economist for pine Bridge Investments, and Marcus was 404 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 1: just referencing kind of interest rates and again at the 405 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: ten year treasury here we are one point four three percent. 406 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: We have seen a flattening of the curve, but can 407 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: you look at that ten years still at one point 408 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 1: four three percent. A lot of folks I thought we'd 409 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: see a pick up, a rise in yields, just not 410 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 1: seeing yet. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 411 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts 412 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 413 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three and on Fall Sweeney. 414 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You 415 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio