WEBVTT - Smart Talks with IBM: AI & the Productivity Paradox

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Tech Stuff, a production from iHeartRadio. Today, we

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<v Speaker 1>are witnessed to one of those rare moments in history,

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<v Speaker 1>the rise of an innovative technology with the potential to

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<v Speaker 1>radically transform business in society forever. That technology, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is artificial intelligence, and it's the central focus for this

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<v Speaker 1>new season of Smart Talks with IBM. Join hosts from

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<v Speaker 1>your favorite Pushkin podcasts as they talk with industry experts

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<v Speaker 1>and leaders to explore how businesses can integrate AI into

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<v Speaker 1>their workflows and help drive real change in this new

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<v Speaker 1>era of AI, and of course, host Malcolm Gladwell will

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<v Speaker 1>be there to guide you through the season and throw

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<v Speaker 1>in his two cents as well. Look out for new

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<v Speaker 1>episodes of Smart Talks with IBM every other week on

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<v Speaker 1>the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts,

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<v Speaker 1>and learn more at IBM dot com, slash smart Talks.

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<v Speaker 2>Pushkin.

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<v Speaker 3>Welcome, Welcome, Welcome to Smart Talks with IBM.

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<v Speaker 4>Hello, Hello, Welcome to Smart Talks with IBM, a podcast

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<v Speaker 4>from Pushkin Industries, iHeartRadio and IBM. I'm Malcolm Gladwell. This season,

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<v Speaker 4>we're diving back into the world of artificial intelligence, but

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<v Speaker 4>with a focus on the powerful concept of open its possibilities, implications,

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<v Speaker 4>and misconceptions. We'll look at openness from a variety of

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<v Speaker 4>angles and explore how the concept is already reshaping industries,

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<v Speaker 4>ways of doing business, and our very notion of what's possible.

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<v Speaker 4>And for the first episode of this season, we're bringing

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<v Speaker 4>you a special conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>I recently said.

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<v Speaker 4>That down with Rob Thomas. Rob is the senior vice

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<v Speaker 4>president of Software and chief Commercial Officer of IBM. We

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<v Speaker 4>spoke to him in front of a live audience as

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<v Speaker 4>part of New York Tech Week. We discussed how businesses

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<v Speaker 4>can harness the immense productivity benefits of AI while implementing

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<v Speaker 4>it in a responsible and ethical manner. We also broke

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<v Speaker 4>down a fascinating concept that Rob believes about AI, known

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<v Speaker 4>as the productivity paradox. Okay, let's get to the conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>How are we doing good, Rob?

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<v Speaker 4>This is our second time. We did one of these

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<v Speaker 4>in the middle of the pandemic. But now it's all

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<v Speaker 4>such a blur now that us can figure out when

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<v Speaker 4>it was.

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<v Speaker 3>I know, it's hard to those are like a blurry years.

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<v Speaker 3>You don't know what happened, right, But.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's good to see you, to meet you again.

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<v Speaker 4>I wanted to start by going back. You've been an IBM.

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<v Speaker 3>Two years right, twenty five in July, believe it or not.

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<v Speaker 2>So you were you were a kid when you joined.

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<v Speaker 3>I was four.

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<v Speaker 4>So I want to contrast present day Rob and twenty

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<v Speaker 4>five years ago Rob. When you arrive at IBM, what

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<v Speaker 4>do you think your job is going to be?

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<v Speaker 2>It, your career is going?

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<v Speaker 4>Where do you think the kind of problems you're going

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<v Speaker 4>to be addressing are?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's kind of surreal because I joined IBM a

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<v Speaker 3>consulting and I'm coming out of school, and you quickly realize, wait,

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<v Speaker 3>the job of a consultant is to tell other companies

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<v Speaker 3>what to do. And I was like, I literally know nothing,

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<v Speaker 3>and so you're immediately trying to figure out, so how

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<v Speaker 3>am I going to be relevant given that I know

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<v Speaker 3>absolutely nothing to advise other companies on what they should

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<v Speaker 3>be doing. And I remember it well, like we were

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<v Speaker 3>sitting in a room. When you're a consultant, you're waiting

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<v Speaker 3>for somebody else to find work for you. A bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of us sitting in a room and somebody walks in

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<v Speaker 3>and as we need somebody that knows visio. Does anybody

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<v Speaker 3>know Visio? I'd never heard of visio. I don't know

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<v Speaker 3>if anybody in the room has. So everybody's like sitting

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<v Speaker 3>around looking at their shoes. So finally I was like,

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<v Speaker 3>I know it. So I raised my hand. They're like, great,

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<v Speaker 3>we got a project for you next week. So I

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<v Speaker 3>was like, all right, I have like three days to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out what visio is, and I hope I can

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<v Speaker 3>actually figure out how to use it now. Luckily, it

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<v Speaker 3>wasn't like a programming language. I mean, it's pretty much

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<v Speaker 3>a drag and drop capability. And so I literally left

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<v Speaker 3>the office, went to a bookstore bought the first three

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<v Speaker 3>books on Visio I could find, spent the whole week

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<v Speaker 3>in reading the books, and showed up and got their

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<v Speaker 3>work on the project. And so it was a bit

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<v Speaker 3>of a risky move, but I think that's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>you this well, But if you don't take risk, you'll

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<v Speaker 3>never you'll never achieve. And so does some extent. Everybody's

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<v Speaker 3>making everything up all the time. It's like, can you

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<v Speaker 3>learn faster than somebody else? Is what the difference is

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<v Speaker 3>in almost every part of life. And so it was

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<v Speaker 3>not planned, but it was an accident, but it kind

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<v Speaker 3>of forced me to figure out that you're going to

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<v Speaker 3>have to figure things out.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we're here to talk about AI, and I'm

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<v Speaker 4>curious about the evolution of your understanding or IBM's understanding

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<v Speaker 4>of my AI. At what point in the last twenty

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<v Speaker 4>five years do you begin to think, oh, this is

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<v Speaker 4>really going to be at the core of what we

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<v Speaker 4>think about and work on at this company.

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<v Speaker 3>The computer scientist John McCarthy, he was he's the person

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<v Speaker 3>that's credited with coining the phrase artificial intelligence. It's like

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<v Speaker 3>in the fifties, and he made an interesting comedy said

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<v Speaker 3>he said, once it works, it's no longer called AI,

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<v Speaker 3>and that then became it's called like the AI effect,

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<v Speaker 3>which is it seems very difficult, very mysterious, but once

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<v Speaker 3>it becomes commonplace, it's just no longer what it is.

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<v Speaker 3>And so if you put that frame on it, I

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<v Speaker 3>think we've always been doing AI at some level. And

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<v Speaker 3>I even think back to when I joined IBM in

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<v Speaker 3>ninety nine. At that point there was work on rules

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<v Speaker 3>based engines, analytics, all of this was happening. So it

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<v Speaker 3>all depends on how you really define that term. You

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<v Speaker 3>could argue that you know, elements of statistics, probability. It's

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<v Speaker 3>not exactly AI, but it certainly feeds into it, and

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<v Speaker 3>so I feel like we've been working on this topic

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<v Speaker 3>of how do we deliver better insights better automation since

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<v Speaker 3>IBM was formed. If you read about what Thomas Watson

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<v Speaker 3>Junior did, that was all about automating tasks, is that AI?

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<v Speaker 3>Well probably certainly not by today's definition, but it's in

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<v Speaker 3>the same zip code.

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<v Speaker 4>So from your perspective, it feels a lot more like

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<v Speaker 4>an evolution than a revolution.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that a fair statement?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, yeah, which I think most great things in technology

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<v Speaker 3>tend to happen that way. Yeah, many of the revolutions,

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<v Speaker 3>if you will, tend to fizzle out.

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<v Speaker 4>But even given that is there, I guess what I'm

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<v Speaker 4>asking is, I'm curious about whether there was a moment

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<v Speaker 4>in that evolution when you had to readjust your expectations

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<v Speaker 4>about what AI was going to be capable of.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, was there, you know, was.

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<v Speaker 4>There a particular innovation or a particular problem that was

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<v Speaker 4>solved that made you think, oh, this is different than

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<v Speaker 4>what I thought.

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<v Speaker 3>I would say the moments that caught our attention certainly

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<v Speaker 3>casper Off winning the chess tournament, nobody or Deep Blue

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<v Speaker 3>beating casper Off. I should say nobody really thought that

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<v Speaker 3>was possible before that, and then it was Watson winning Jeopardy.

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<v Speaker 3>These were moments that said, maybe there's more here than

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<v Speaker 3>we even thought was possible. And so I do think

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<v Speaker 3>there's there's points in time where we realized maybe way

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<v Speaker 3>more could be done than we had even imagined. But

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<v Speaker 3>I do think it's consistent progress every month and every

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<v Speaker 3>year versus some seminal moment. Now, certainly large language models

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<v Speaker 3>as of recent have caught everybody's attention because it has

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<v Speaker 3>a direct consumer application. But I would almost think of

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<v Speaker 3>that as what Netscape was for the for the web browser. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>it brought the Internet to everybody, but that didn't become

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<v Speaker 3>the Internet per se. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>I have a cousin who worked for I'd be up

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<v Speaker 4>for forty one years. I saw him this weekend. He's

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<v Speaker 4>in Toronto. By the way, I said, you work for

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<v Speaker 4>Rob Thomas. He would like this, he goes.

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<v Speaker 2>He said, I'm five layers down.

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<v Speaker 4>But so I always whenever I see my cousin, I

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<v Speaker 4>ask him, can you tell me again what you do?

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<v Speaker 2>Because always changing? Right, I guess this is a function

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<v Speaker 2>of working at IBM.

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<v Speaker 4>So eventually he just gives up and says, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we're just solving problems, so what we're doing, which I

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<v Speaker 4>sort of loved as a kind of frame, And I

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<v Speaker 4>was curious, what's the coolest problem you ever worked on?

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<v Speaker 4>Not biggest, not most important, but the coolest, the one

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<v Speaker 4>that's like that sort of makes you smile when you

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<v Speaker 4>think back on it.

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<v Speaker 3>Probably when I was in microelectronics, because it was a

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<v Speaker 3>world I had no exposure to. I hadn't studied computer science,

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<v Speaker 3>and we were building a lot of high performance semiconductor technology,

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<v Speaker 3>so just chips that do a really great job of

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<v Speaker 3>processing something or other. And we figured out that there

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<v Speaker 3>was a market in consumer gaming that was starting to happen,

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<v Speaker 3>and we got to the point where we became the

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<v Speaker 3>chip inside the Nintendo, We the Microsoft Xbox Sony PlayStation,

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<v Speaker 3>so we basically had the entire gaming market running on

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<v Speaker 3>ib AND chips.

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<v Speaker 4>And to use every parent basically is pointing at you

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<v Speaker 4>and saying you're the call.

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<v Speaker 3>Probably well they would have found it from anybody, but

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<v Speaker 3>it was the first time I could explain my job

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<v Speaker 3>to my kids, who were quite young at that time,

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<v Speaker 3>like what I did like it was more tangible for

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<v Speaker 3>them than saying we solve problems or douce you know,

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<v Speaker 3>build solutions like it became very tangible for them, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's, you know, a rewarding part of the

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<v Speaker 3>job is when you can help your family actually understand

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<v Speaker 3>what you do. Most people can't do that. It's probably

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<v Speaker 3>easier for you. They can, they can see the books,

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<v Speaker 3>but for for some of us in the business, the

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<v Speaker 3>business world, it's not always as obvious. So that was

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<v Speaker 3>like one example where the dots really connected.

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<v Speaker 4>There were a couple's a couple of stuck about a

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<v Speaker 4>little bit of this into context of of AI. I

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<v Speaker 4>love because I love the frame of problem solving as

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<v Speaker 4>a way of understanding what the function of the technology is.

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<v Speaker 4>So I know that you guys did something, did some

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<v Speaker 4>work with I never know how to pronounce it. Is

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<v Speaker 4>it Seville Sevia, Sevia with the football club Sevia in Spain?

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<v Speaker 4>Tell me about Tell me a little bit about that.

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<v Speaker 4>What problem were they trying to solve and why did

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<v Speaker 4>they call you?

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<v Speaker 3>In? Every sports franchise is trying to get an advantage, right,

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<v Speaker 3>Let's just be that clear. Everybody's how can I use data? Analytics, insights,

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<v Speaker 3>anything that will make us one percent better on the

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<v Speaker 3>field at some point in the future. And Seville reached

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<v Speaker 3>out to us because they had seen some of that.

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<v Speaker 3>We've done some work with the Toronto Raptors in the

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<v Speaker 3>past and others, and their thought was maybe there's something

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<v Speaker 3>we could do. They'd heard all about generative AI, that

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<v Speaker 3>heard about large language models, and the problem, back to

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<v Speaker 3>your point on solving problems, was we want to do

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<v Speaker 3>a way better job of assessing talent, because really the

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<v Speaker 3>lifeblood of a sports franchise is can you continue to

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<v Speaker 3>cultivate talent, can you find talent that others don't find?

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<v Speaker 3>Can you see something in somebody that they don't see

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<v Speaker 3>in themselves or maybe no other team season them. And

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<v Speaker 3>we ended up building somebody with them called Scout Advisor,

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<v Speaker 3>which is built on Watson X, which basically just ingests

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<v Speaker 3>tons and tons of data and we like to think

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<v Speaker 3>of it as finding the needle in the haystack of

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<v Speaker 3>you know, here's three players that aren't being considered. They're

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<v Speaker 3>not on the top teams today, and I think working

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<v Speaker 3>with them together, we found some pretty good insights that's

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<v Speaker 3>helped them out.

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<v Speaker 2>How what was intriguing to.

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<v Speaker 4>Me was we're not just talking about quantitative data. We're

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<v Speaker 4>also talking about qualitative data. That's the puzzle part of

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<v Speaker 4>the thing that fastens me. How does what incorporate qualitative

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<v Speaker 4>analysis into that sort of so you just feeding in

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<v Speaker 4>scouting reports and things like that.

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<v Speaker 3>I got to realize think about how much I can

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<v Speaker 3>actually disclose it. But if you think about so, quantitative

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<v Speaker 3>is relatively easy. Every team collects that, you know, what's

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<v Speaker 3>their forty yard dashable think they use that term, certainly

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<v Speaker 3>not in Spain. That's all quantitative. Qualitative is what's happening

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:37.439
<v Speaker 3>off the field. It could be diet, it could be habits,

0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:41.360
<v Speaker 3>it could be behavior. You can imagine a range of

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:46.160
<v Speaker 3>things that would all feed into an athlete's performance, and

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 3>so relationships. There's many different aspects, and so it's trying

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 3>to figure out the right blend of quantitative and qualitative

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 3>that gives you a unique insight.

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:01.640
<v Speaker 4>How transparent is that kind of system telling you? It's

0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 4>saying pick this guy, not this guy, But is it

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:06.679
<v Speaker 4>telling you why it prefers this guy to this guy?

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:07.160
<v Speaker 2>Was it?

0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 3>I think for anything in the realm of AI, you

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.800
<v Speaker 3>have to answer the why question. Yeah, otherwise you've fallen

0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:18.160
<v Speaker 3>into the trap of the you know, the proverbial black box,

0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:21.200
<v Speaker 3>and then wait, I made this decision, I'd never understood

0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.640
<v Speaker 3>why it didn't work out, So you always have to

0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:25.080
<v Speaker 3>answer why without a.

0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.480
<v Speaker 2>Doubt and how is why answered?

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:34.080
<v Speaker 3>Sources of data, the reasoning that went into it, and

0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 3>so it's basically just tracing back the chain of how

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.320
<v Speaker 3>you got to the answer. And in the case of

0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 3>what we do in Watson X is we have IBM models.

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.080
<v Speaker 3>We also use some other open source models, so it

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.920
<v Speaker 3>would be which model was used, what was the data

0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:51.160
<v Speaker 3>set that was fed into that model, How is it

0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 3>making decisions? How is it performing? Is it robust? Meaning

0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 3>is it reliable in terms of if you feed it

0:14:58.000 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 3>two of the same data set, do you get the

0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 3>same answer? These are all the you know, the technical

0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 3>aspects of understanding the why.

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:09.640
<v Speaker 4>How quickly do you expect all professional sports franchises to

0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 4>adopt some kind of are they already there? If I

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 4>went out and pulled the general managers of the one

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 4>hundred most valuable sports franchises in the world, how many

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.080
<v Speaker 4>of them would be using some kind of AI system

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:22.360
<v Speaker 4>to assist in their efforts?

0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 3>One hundred and twenty percent would meaning that everybody's doing it,

0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 3>and some think they're doing way more than they probably

0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:33.480
<v Speaker 3>actually are. So everybody's doing it. I think what's weird

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:39.080
<v Speaker 3>about sports is everybody's so convinced that what they're doing

0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 3>is unique that they generally speaking don't want to work

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 3>with a third party to do it because they're afraid

0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.680
<v Speaker 3>that that would expose them. But in reality, I think

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 3>most are doing eighty to ninety percent of the same things.

0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:55.320
<v Speaker 3>So but without a doubt, everybody's doing it.

0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Yeah.

0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:01.680
<v Speaker 4>The other that love was there was one but a

0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 4>shipping line tri gun on the Mississippi River. Tell me

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 4>a little bit about that project. What problem were they

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:08.200
<v Speaker 4>trying to solve?

0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:14.000
<v Speaker 3>Think about the problem that I would say everybody noticed

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 3>if you go back to twenty twenty was things are

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 3>getting hold held up in ports. It was actually an

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.520
<v Speaker 3>article in the paper this morning kind of tracing the

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:26.320
<v Speaker 3>history of what happened twenty twenty twenty one and why

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.320
<v Speaker 3>ships were basically sitting at seas for months at a time.

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.040
<v Speaker 3>And at that stage we just we had a massive

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:38.360
<v Speaker 3>throughput issue. But moving even beyond the pandemic, you can

0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:43.120
<v Speaker 3>see it now with ships getting through like Panama Canal.

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.000
<v Speaker 3>There's like a narrow window where you can get through,

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:50.120
<v Speaker 3>and if you don't have your paperwork done, you don't

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 3>have the right approvals, you're not going through and it

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:53.640
<v Speaker 3>may cost you a day or two and that's a

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.520
<v Speaker 3>lot of money. In the shipping industry and the tricon example,

0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 3>it's really just about when you're pulled into a port,

0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:06.160
<v Speaker 3>if you have the right paperwork done, you can get

0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:10.720
<v Speaker 3>goods off the ship very quickly. They ship a lot

0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:14.760
<v Speaker 3>of food which by definition, since it's not packaged food,

0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:18.719
<v Speaker 3>it's fresh food, there is an expiration period and so

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:24.040
<v Speaker 3>if it takes them an extra two hours, certainly multiple

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 3>hours or a day, they have a massive problem because

0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:28.880
<v Speaker 3>then you're going to deal with spoilage and so it's

0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 3>going to set you back. And what we've worked with

0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:35.159
<v Speaker 3>them on is using an assistant that we've built in

0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:40.560
<v Speaker 3>Watson X called Orchestrate, which basically is just AI doing

0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:46.439
<v Speaker 3>digital labor, so we can replicate nearly any repetitive task

0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:51.119
<v Speaker 3>and do that with software instead of humans. So, as

0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.600
<v Speaker 3>you may imagine, shipping industry still has a lot of

0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:57.720
<v Speaker 3>paperwork that goes on and so being able to take

0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:01.040
<v Speaker 3>forms that normally would be multiple hours of filling it out.

0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.160
<v Speaker 3>Oh this isn't right, send it back. We've basically built

0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:08.200
<v Speaker 3>that as a digital skill inside of Watson X orchestraate

0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.400
<v Speaker 3>and so now it's done in minutes.

0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.360
<v Speaker 4>They did they realize that they could have that kind

0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:17.560
<v Speaker 4>of efficiency by teaming up with you? Or is that

0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:21.639
<v Speaker 4>something you came to them and said, guys, we can

0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 4>do this way better than you think.

0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:23.440
<v Speaker 2>What's the.

0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.800
<v Speaker 3>I'd say it's always it's always both sides coming together

0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.880
<v Speaker 3>at a moment that for some reason makes sense because

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:34.880
<v Speaker 3>you could say, why didn't this happen like five years ago,

0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:39.240
<v Speaker 3>like this seems so obvious. Well, technology wasn't quite ready then,

0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:41.880
<v Speaker 3>I would say, But they knew they had a need

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.959
<v Speaker 3>because I forget what the precise number is, but you know,

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 3>reduction of spoilage has massive impact on their bottom line,

0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:54.880
<v Speaker 3>and so they knew they had a need. We thought

0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.840
<v Speaker 3>we could solve it and the two together.

0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.399
<v Speaker 2>Who did you guys go to the Now? Did they

0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:01.840
<v Speaker 2>come to you?

0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 3>I recall that this one was an inbound meaning they

0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 3>had reached out to IBM and we'd like to solve

0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:10.679
<v Speaker 3>this problem. I think it went into one of our

0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 3>digital centers if I recall it a literary phone.

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:18.720
<v Speaker 4>Call, but the other the reverse is more interesting to

0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:20.960
<v Speaker 4>me because there seems to be a very very large

0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 4>universe of people who have problems that could be solved

0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:25.600
<v Speaker 4>this way and they don't realize it.

0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:27.359
<v Speaker 2>What's your.

0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.679
<v Speaker 4>Is there a shining example of this of someone you

0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.159
<v Speaker 4>just can't you just think could benefit so much and

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 4>isn't benefiting right now?

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 3>Maybe I'll answer it slightly differently. I'm I'm surprised by

0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 3>how many people can benefit that you wouldn't even logically

0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.600
<v Speaker 3>think of. First, let me give you an example. There's

0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:56.360
<v Speaker 3>a franchiser of hair salons. Sport Clips is the name.

0:19:57.560 --> 0:19:59.679
<v Speaker 3>My sons used to go there for haircuts because they

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.479
<v Speaker 3>have like and you can watch sports, so they loved that.

0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:05.439
<v Speaker 3>They got entertained while they would get their haircut. I

0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:07.600
<v Speaker 3>think the last place that you would think is using

0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 3>AI today would be a franchiser of hair salons. But

0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:17.880
<v Speaker 3>just follow it through. The biggest part of how they

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.280
<v Speaker 3>run their business is can I get people to cut hair?

0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:24.200
<v Speaker 3>And this is the high turnover industry because there's a

0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:25.720
<v Speaker 3>lot of different places you can work if you want

0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:28.320
<v Speaker 3>to cut hair. People actually get injured cutting hair because

0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:29.920
<v Speaker 3>you're on your feet all day, that type of thing.

0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:35.320
<v Speaker 3>And they're using same technology orchestrate as part of their

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:39.320
<v Speaker 3>recruiting process. How can they automate a lot of people

0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:44.320
<v Speaker 3>submitting resumes, who they speak to, how they qualify them

0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.639
<v Speaker 3>for the position. And so the reason I give that

0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:52.520
<v Speaker 3>example is the opportunity for AI, which is unlike other technologies,

0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 3>is truly unlimited. It will touch every single business. It's

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.359
<v Speaker 3>not the realm of the fun five hundred or the

0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:06.159
<v Speaker 3>fortune one thousand. This is the fortune any size. And

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 3>I think that may be one thing that people underestimate

0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:09.520
<v Speaker 3>about AI.

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:13.560
<v Speaker 4>What about I mean, I was thinking about education as

0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:19.520
<v Speaker 4>a kind of I mean, education is a perennial whipping

0:21:19.520 --> 0:21:22.720
<v Speaker 4>boy for you guys that are living in the nineteenth century, right.

0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:27.920
<v Speaker 4>I'm just curious about if a superintendent of a public

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:31.320
<v Speaker 4>school system or the president of the university sat down

0:21:31.320 --> 0:21:35.359
<v Speaker 4>and had lunch with you and said, do the university first.

0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 4>My cost are out of control, my enrollment is down,

0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 4>my students hate me, and my board is revolting.

0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:45.000
<v Speaker 2>Help.

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 4>How would you how would you think about helping someone

0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:51.000
<v Speaker 4>in that situation.

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.080
<v Speaker 3>I spend some time with universities. I like to go

0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:58.760
<v Speaker 3>back and visit Alma Maters where I went to school,

0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:03.040
<v Speaker 3>and so I do that every year. The challenge I

0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:05.080
<v Speaker 3>have hall is Seeming university is there has to be

0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:08.320
<v Speaker 3>a will. Yeah, and I'm not sure the incentives are

0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:13.600
<v Speaker 3>quite right today because bringing in new technology, let's say

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 3>we want to go after we can help you figure

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:20.560
<v Speaker 3>out student recruiting or how you automate more of your education,

0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:26.120
<v Speaker 3>everybody suddenly feels threatened that university. Hold on, that's my job.

0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:29.040
<v Speaker 3>I'm the one that decides that, or I'm the one

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:32.119
<v Speaker 3>that wants to dictate the course. So there has to

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 3>be a will. So I think it's very possible, and

0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:39.320
<v Speaker 3>I do think over the next decade you will see

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:41.720
<v Speaker 3>some universities that jump all over this and they will

0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:45.400
<v Speaker 3>move ahead, and you see others that do not, because

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:46.920
<v Speaker 3>it's very possible.

0:22:48.520 --> 0:22:51.480
<v Speaker 4>Where how does when you say there has to be

0:22:51.520 --> 0:22:54.080
<v Speaker 4>a will? Is that the kind of Is that a

0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:56.639
<v Speaker 4>kind of thing that that people at IBM think about,

0:22:57.359 --> 0:23:00.639
<v Speaker 4>Like when in this conversation you hype type a conversation

0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 4>you might have with the university president, would you give

0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:08.680
<v Speaker 4>advice on where the will comes from?

0:23:08.760 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 3>I don't do that as much in a university context.

0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:14.880
<v Speaker 3>I do that every day in a business context because

0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:17.680
<v Speaker 3>if you can find the right person in a business

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:21.800
<v Speaker 3>that wants to focus on growth or the bottom line

0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:24.920
<v Speaker 3>or how do you create more productivity. Yes, it's going

0:23:24.960 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 3>to create a lot of organizational resistance potentially, but you

0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:31.280
<v Speaker 3>can find somebody that will figure out how to push

0:23:31.280 --> 0:23:36.360
<v Speaker 3>that through. I think for universities, I think that's also possible.

0:23:36.640 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure there's there's a there's a return on

0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:40.040
<v Speaker 3>investment for us to do that.

0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, yeah, let's let's find some terms.

0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:50.400
<v Speaker 2>AI years. I told you'd like to use What does

0:23:50.400 --> 0:23:50.720
<v Speaker 2>that mean?

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:55.200
<v Speaker 3>We just started using this term literally in the last

0:23:55.240 --> 0:24:00.040
<v Speaker 3>three months, and it was a It was what we

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 3>observed internally, which is most technology you build, you say,

0:24:04.880 --> 0:24:07.000
<v Speaker 3>all right, what's going to happen in year one, year two,

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:11.720
<v Speaker 3>year three, and it's you know, largely by by a calendar.

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:14.439
<v Speaker 3>AI years are the idea that what used to be

0:24:14.480 --> 0:24:18.600
<v Speaker 3>a year is now like a week, and that is

0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:21.480
<v Speaker 3>how fast the technology is moving. Do you give you

0:24:21.480 --> 0:24:25.200
<v Speaker 3>an example. We had one client we're working with, They're

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:28.560
<v Speaker 3>using one of our granite models, and the results they

0:24:28.600 --> 0:24:31.120
<v Speaker 3>were getting we're not very good. Accuracy was not there.

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:34.080
<v Speaker 3>Their performance was not there. So I was like scratching

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:37.040
<v Speaker 3>my head. I was like, what is going on? They

0:24:37.119 --> 0:24:40.680
<v Speaker 3>were financial services, the bank, So I'm scratching my head,

0:24:40.720 --> 0:24:42.600
<v Speaker 3>like what is going on? Everybody else is getting this

0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:46.480
<v Speaker 3>and like these results are horrible. And I said to

0:24:46.480 --> 0:24:48.920
<v Speaker 3>the team, which version of the model are you using?

0:24:50.040 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 3>This was in February, Like we're using the one from October.

0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:56.760
<v Speaker 3>I was like, all right, now we don't precisely the

0:24:56.800 --> 0:25:00.679
<v Speaker 3>problem because the model from October is the effect useless

0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:02.000
<v Speaker 3>now since we're here in February.

0:25:02.600 --> 0:25:06.720
<v Speaker 2>Serious, actually useless, completely useless.

0:25:06.880 --> 0:25:09.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that is how fast this is changing. And so

0:25:10.320 --> 0:25:14.520
<v Speaker 3>the minute, same use case, same data, you give them

0:25:14.520 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 3>the model from late January instead of October, the results

0:25:19.119 --> 0:25:19.840
<v Speaker 3>are off the charts.

0:25:20.400 --> 0:25:20.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:24.000
<v Speaker 4>Wait, so what exactly happened between October and January?

0:25:24.200 --> 0:25:25.280
<v Speaker 3>The model got way better?

0:25:25.840 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 2>Could dig into that? Like, what do you mean by

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:28.000
<v Speaker 2>the way.

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:32.560
<v Speaker 3>We are constant We have built large compute infrastructure where

0:25:32.560 --> 0:25:36.080
<v Speaker 3>we're doing model training. And to be clear, model training

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:39.840
<v Speaker 3>is the realm of probably in the world my guess

0:25:39.920 --> 0:25:44.959
<v Speaker 3>is five to ten companies. And so you build a model,

0:25:45.320 --> 0:25:48.640
<v Speaker 3>you're constantly training it, you're doing fine tuning you're doing

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:51.399
<v Speaker 3>more training, You're adding data every day, every hour it

0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:55.560
<v Speaker 3>gets better, And so how does it do that. You're

0:25:55.560 --> 0:25:59.359
<v Speaker 3>feeding it more data, you're feeding it more live examples.

0:26:00.480 --> 0:26:03.240
<v Speaker 3>We're using things like synthetic data at this point, which

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:05.879
<v Speaker 3>is we're basically creating data to do the training as well.

0:26:06.560 --> 0:26:09.439
<v Speaker 3>All of this feeds into how useful the model is,

0:26:10.080 --> 0:26:13.679
<v Speaker 3>and so using the October model, those were the results

0:26:13.680 --> 0:26:16.440
<v Speaker 3>in October, just a fact, that's how good it was then.

0:26:17.160 --> 0:26:21.359
<v Speaker 3>But back to the concept of AI years, two weeks

0:26:21.480 --> 0:26:22.120
<v Speaker 3>is a long time.

0:26:23.240 --> 0:26:26.280
<v Speaker 4>Does that are we in a steep part of the

0:26:26.320 --> 0:26:29.120
<v Speaker 4>model learning carve or do you expect this to continue

0:26:29.160 --> 0:26:30.879
<v Speaker 4>along this at this pace?

0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:36.720
<v Speaker 3>I think that is the big question and don't have

0:26:36.760 --> 0:26:39.360
<v Speaker 3>an answer yet. By definition, at some point you would

0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:41.439
<v Speaker 3>think it would have to slow down a bit, but

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:44.360
<v Speaker 3>it's not obvious that that is on the horizon.

0:26:44.359 --> 0:26:47.919
<v Speaker 2>Still speeding up. Yes, how fast can it get?

0:26:50.400 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 3>We've debated, can you actually have better results in the

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 3>afternoon than you did in the morning. Really it's nuts, Yeah,

0:26:58.320 --> 0:27:01.000
<v Speaker 3>I know, But that's that's why we came up with

0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:03.080
<v Speaker 3>this term, because I think you also have to think

0:27:03.080 --> 0:27:08.480
<v Speaker 3>of like concepts that gets people's attention so.

0:27:08.760 --> 0:27:11.720
<v Speaker 4>You're basically turning into a bakery. You're like the bread

0:27:11.720 --> 0:27:14.000
<v Speaker 4>from yesterday. You know you can have it for twenty

0:27:14.040 --> 0:27:17.520
<v Speaker 4>five cents. But I mean you do proferential pricing. You

0:27:17.520 --> 0:27:22.640
<v Speaker 4>could say, we'll judge you x for yesterday's model, two

0:27:22.920 --> 0:27:23.920
<v Speaker 4>x for today's model.

0:27:25.520 --> 0:27:29.439
<v Speaker 3>I think that's dangerous as a merchandising strategy, but I

0:27:29.440 --> 0:27:30.040
<v Speaker 3>guess your point.

0:27:30.440 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but that's crazy.

0:27:32.680 --> 0:27:34.359
<v Speaker 4>And this, by the way, so this model is the

0:27:34.400 --> 0:27:37.280
<v Speaker 4>same true for almost you're talking specifically about a model

0:27:37.320 --> 0:27:40.640
<v Speaker 4>that was created to help some aspect of a financial

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:45.520
<v Speaker 4>services So is that kind of model accelerating faster and

0:27:45.600 --> 0:27:48.560
<v Speaker 4>running faster than other models for other kinds of problems?

0:27:48.920 --> 0:27:54.119
<v Speaker 3>So this domain was code. Yeah, so by definition, if

0:27:54.119 --> 0:27:57.679
<v Speaker 3>you're feeling feeding in more data some more code, you

0:27:57.680 --> 0:28:01.440
<v Speaker 3>get those kind of results depend on the model type.

0:28:02.119 --> 0:28:03.879
<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of code in the world, and so

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.080
<v Speaker 3>we can find that we can create it. Like I said,

0:28:08.359 --> 0:28:12.960
<v Speaker 3>there's other aspects where there's probably less inputs available, which

0:28:13.000 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 3>means you probably won't get the same level of iteration.

0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:18.320
<v Speaker 3>But for code, that's certainly the cycle times that we're seeing.

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:20.960
<v Speaker 4>Yea, and how do you know that. Let's stick with

0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:23.639
<v Speaker 4>this one example of this model you have, how do

0:28:23.680 --> 0:28:25.960
<v Speaker 4>you know that your model is better than.

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:28.800
<v Speaker 2>Big company B down the street?

0:28:29.960 --> 0:28:31.840
<v Speaker 4>Client asks you, why would I go with IBM as

0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:35.760
<v Speaker 4>opposed to some the s firm in the valley that says,

0:28:35.800 --> 0:28:38.040
<v Speaker 4>as they have a model on this, what's your how

0:28:38.040 --> 0:28:40.560
<v Speaker 4>do you frame your advantage?

0:28:41.880 --> 0:28:45.040
<v Speaker 3>Well, we benchmark all of this, and I think the

0:28:45.040 --> 0:28:50.320
<v Speaker 3>most important is metric is price performance, Not price, not performance,

0:28:50.320 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 3>but the combination of the two. And we're super competitive there. Well,

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:57.680
<v Speaker 3>for what we just released, with what we've done in

0:28:57.760 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 3>open source, we know that nobody's close to us right

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:03.360
<v Speaker 3>now on code now. To be clear, that will probably change, yeah,

0:29:03.440 --> 0:29:06.160
<v Speaker 3>because it's like leap frog. People will jump ahead, then

0:29:06.400 --> 0:29:11.600
<v Speaker 3>we jump back ahead. But we're very confident that with

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:13.720
<v Speaker 3>everything we've done in the last few months, we've taken

0:29:13.800 --> 0:29:14.960
<v Speaker 3>a huge leap forward here.

0:29:15.160 --> 0:29:15.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:29:16.840 --> 0:29:18.400
<v Speaker 4>I mean this goes back to the point I was

0:29:18.440 --> 0:29:21.640
<v Speaker 4>making in the beginning, so about the difference between your

0:29:22.520 --> 0:29:25.720
<v Speaker 4>twenty something self in ninety nine and yourself today.

0:29:26.000 --> 0:29:27.240
<v Speaker 2>But this time.

0:29:27.040 --> 0:29:32.200
<v Speaker 4>Compression has to be a crazy adjustment. So the concept

0:29:32.200 --> 0:29:34.760
<v Speaker 4>of what you're working on and how you make decisions

0:29:34.760 --> 0:29:38.720
<v Speaker 4>internally and things has to undergo this kind of revolution.

0:29:38.880 --> 0:29:41.520
<v Speaker 4>If you're switching from I mean back in the day,

0:29:41.520 --> 0:29:44.720
<v Speaker 4>a model might be useful for how.

0:29:44.600 --> 0:29:46.040
<v Speaker 2>Long years years?

0:29:46.120 --> 0:29:49.800
<v Speaker 3>I think about you know, statistical models that set inside

0:29:49.840 --> 0:29:53.760
<v Speaker 3>things like SPSS, which is a product that a lot

0:29:53.800 --> 0:29:55.680
<v Speaker 3>of students use around the world. I mean, those have

0:29:55.720 --> 0:29:58.400
<v Speaker 3>been the same models for twenty years and they're still

0:29:58.480 --> 0:30:01.360
<v Speaker 3>very good at what they do. And so yes, it's

0:30:01.400 --> 0:30:05.960
<v Speaker 3>a completely it's a completely different moment for how fast

0:30:05.960 --> 0:30:08.880
<v Speaker 3>this is moving. And I think it just raises the

0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:13.040
<v Speaker 3>bar for everybody, whether you're a technology provider like us,

0:30:13.840 --> 0:30:17.120
<v Speaker 3>or you're a bank or an insurance company or a

0:30:17.160 --> 0:30:21.240
<v Speaker 3>shipping company, to say, how do you really change your

0:30:21.240 --> 0:30:26.000
<v Speaker 3>culture to be way more aggressive than you normally would be?

0:30:28.040 --> 0:30:30.600
<v Speaker 4>Does this means it's a weird question, But does this

0:30:30.680 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 4>mean a different set of kind of personality or character

0:30:34.720 --> 0:30:38.160
<v Speaker 4>traits are necessary for a decision maker in tech now

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:39.760
<v Speaker 4>than twenty five years ago.

0:30:42.960 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 3>There's a there's a book I saw recently, it's called

0:30:45.920 --> 0:30:49.960
<v Speaker 3>The Geek Way, which talked about how technology companies have

0:30:50.040 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 3>started to operate in different ways maybe than many you know,

0:30:54.920 --> 0:31:03.480
<v Speaker 3>traditional companies, and more about being dated driven, more about delegation.

0:31:04.200 --> 0:31:07.680
<v Speaker 3>Are you willing to have the smartest person in the

0:31:07.760 --> 0:31:10.040
<v Speaker 3>room make decisions opposed to the highest paid person in

0:31:10.080 --> 0:31:13.160
<v Speaker 3>the room. I think these are all different aspects that

0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:15.280
<v Speaker 3>every company is going to face. Yeah.

0:31:15.840 --> 0:31:19.960
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, next term, talk about open. When you use that

0:31:20.000 --> 0:31:21.000
<v Speaker 4>word open, what do you mean.

0:31:23.520 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 3>I think there's really only one definition of open, which

0:31:26.320 --> 0:31:31.360
<v Speaker 3>is for technology is open source. An open source means

0:31:32.000 --> 0:31:37.880
<v Speaker 3>the code is freely available. Anybody can see it, access it,

0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:39.640
<v Speaker 3>contribute to it.

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:43.400
<v Speaker 4>And what is Tell me about why that's an important principle.

0:31:46.080 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 3>When you take a topic like AI, I think it

0:31:49.240 --> 0:31:53.040
<v Speaker 3>would be really bad for the world if this was

0:31:53.080 --> 0:31:57.640
<v Speaker 3>in the hands of one or two companies, or three

0:31:57.720 --> 0:32:01.000
<v Speaker 3>or four, doesn't matter the number, some small number. Think

0:32:01.000 --> 0:32:05.600
<v Speaker 3>about like in history, sometime early nineteen hundreds, the Interstate

0:32:05.680 --> 0:32:09.400
<v Speaker 3>Commerce Commission was created, and the whole idea was to

0:32:09.440 --> 0:32:14.959
<v Speaker 3>protect farmers from railroads. Meaning they wanted to allow free trade,

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 3>but they knew that, well, there's only so many railroad tracks,

0:32:17.760 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 3>so we need to protect farmers from the shipping costs

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:25.040
<v Speaker 3>that railroads could impose. So good idea, but over time

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:29.120
<v Speaker 3>that got completely overtaken by the railroad lobby and then

0:32:29.120 --> 0:32:33.000
<v Speaker 3>they use that to basically just increase prices and it

0:32:33.040 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 3>made the lives of farmers way more difficult. I think

0:32:37.120 --> 0:32:40.560
<v Speaker 3>you could play the same analogy through with AI. If

0:32:40.600 --> 0:32:44.840
<v Speaker 3>you allow a handful of companies to have the technology,

0:32:45.000 --> 0:32:48.080
<v Speaker 3>you regulate around the principles of those one or two companies,

0:32:48.120 --> 0:32:51.000
<v Speaker 3>then you've trapped the entire world. That would be very bad.

0:32:52.360 --> 0:32:56.080
<v Speaker 3>So the danger of that happened for sure. I mean

0:32:56.400 --> 0:33:01.080
<v Speaker 3>there's companies in Watson in Washington every week trying to

0:33:01.120 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 3>achieve that outcome. And so the opposite of that is

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:08.240
<v Speaker 3>to say it's going to be an open source because

0:33:08.280 --> 0:33:11.240
<v Speaker 3>nobody can dispute open source because it's right there, everybody

0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:15.040
<v Speaker 3>can see it. And so I'm a strong believer that

0:33:15.080 --> 0:33:17.200
<v Speaker 3>open source will win for AI. It has to win.

0:33:17.960 --> 0:33:23.000
<v Speaker 3>It's not just important for business, but it's important for humans.

0:33:23.800 --> 0:33:26.960
<v Speaker 4>On the I'm curious about on the list of things

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 4>you worry about, actually, let me before I ask, let

0:33:30.760 --> 0:33:33.200
<v Speaker 4>me ask this question very generally. What is the list

0:33:33.240 --> 0:33:36.080
<v Speaker 4>of things you worry about? What's your top five business

0:33:36.080 --> 0:33:37.240
<v Speaker 4>related worries right now?

0:33:38.720 --> 0:33:41.040
<v Speaker 3>Tops from those are the first question. We could be

0:33:41.080 --> 0:33:42.400
<v Speaker 3>here for hours for me to answer.

0:33:44.080 --> 0:33:45.200
<v Speaker 2>I did say business related.

0:33:45.200 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 4>We could leave you know, your kid's haircuts got it

0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:49.560
<v Speaker 4>out of.

0:33:49.440 --> 0:33:54.400
<v Speaker 3>The number one is always it's the thing that's probably

0:33:54.440 --> 0:33:59.520
<v Speaker 3>always been true, which is just people. Do we have

0:33:59.560 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 3>the rights skills? Are we doing a good job of

0:34:01.800 --> 0:34:05.240
<v Speaker 3>training our people? Are our people doing a good job

0:34:05.280 --> 0:34:09.239
<v Speaker 3>of working with clients? Like that's number one. Number two

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:15.600
<v Speaker 3>is innovation. Are we pushing the envelope enough? Are are

0:34:15.600 --> 0:34:20.240
<v Speaker 3>we staying ahead? Number three is which kind of feeds

0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:23.000
<v Speaker 3>into the innovation one is risk taking? Are we taking

0:34:23.120 --> 0:34:27.160
<v Speaker 3>enough risk? Without risk? There is no growth? And I

0:34:27.160 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 3>think the trap that every larger company inevitably falls into

0:34:32.200 --> 0:34:37.719
<v Speaker 3>is conservatism. Things are good enough, and so it's are

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:41.160
<v Speaker 3>we pushing the envelope? Are we taking enough risk to

0:34:41.239 --> 0:34:43.360
<v Speaker 3>really have an impact? I'd say those are probably the

0:34:43.400 --> 0:34:44.719
<v Speaker 3>top three that I spend.

0:34:45.000 --> 0:34:48.560
<v Speaker 4>Last turn to define productivity paradox something I know you've

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:50.279
<v Speaker 4>thought a lot about what does that mean?

0:34:51.719 --> 0:34:54.359
<v Speaker 3>So I started thinking hard about this because all I

0:34:54.480 --> 0:34:57.680
<v Speaker 3>saw and read every day was was fear about AI.

0:35:00.120 --> 0:35:04.759
<v Speaker 3>And I studied economics, and so I kind of went

0:35:04.800 --> 0:35:08.440
<v Speaker 3>back to like basic economics. And there's been like a

0:35:08.480 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 3>macro investing formula. I guess I would say it's been

0:35:12.640 --> 0:35:20.400
<v Speaker 3>around forever that says growth comes from productivity growth plus

0:35:20.440 --> 0:35:26.520
<v Speaker 3>population growth plus debt growth. So if those three things

0:35:26.520 --> 0:35:30.440
<v Speaker 3>are working, you'll get GDP growth. And so then you

0:35:30.440 --> 0:35:34.200
<v Speaker 3>think about that and you say, well, debt growth, we're

0:35:34.200 --> 0:35:37.640
<v Speaker 3>probably not going back to zero percent interest rates, so

0:35:37.680 --> 0:35:39.480
<v Speaker 3>to some extent there's going to be a ceiling on that.

0:35:40.719 --> 0:35:44.799
<v Speaker 3>And then you look at population growth. There are shockingly

0:35:44.960 --> 0:35:47.719
<v Speaker 3>few countries or places in the world that will see

0:35:47.719 --> 0:35:50.959
<v Speaker 3>population growth over the next thirty to fifty years. In fact,

0:35:50.960 --> 0:35:55.640
<v Speaker 3>most places are not even at replacement rates. And so

0:35:55.680 --> 0:35:57.359
<v Speaker 3>I'm like, all right, so population growth is not going

0:35:57.400 --> 0:36:00.800
<v Speaker 3>to be there. So that would mean if you just

0:36:00.840 --> 0:36:05.319
<v Speaker 3>take it to the extreme, the only chance of continued

0:36:05.520 --> 0:36:14.360
<v Speaker 3>GDP growth is productivity. And the best way to solve

0:36:14.360 --> 0:36:17.360
<v Speaker 3>productivity is AI That's why I say it's a paradox.

0:36:17.480 --> 0:36:22.160
<v Speaker 3>On one hand, everybody's scared after death it's going to take

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:25.279
<v Speaker 3>over the world, take all of our jobs, ruin us.

0:36:26.800 --> 0:36:28.920
<v Speaker 3>But in reality, maybe it's the other way, which is

0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:32.239
<v Speaker 3>it's the only thing that can save us. Yeah, and

0:36:32.320 --> 0:36:34.600
<v Speaker 3>if you believe that economic equation, which I think has

0:36:34.640 --> 0:36:37.880
<v Speaker 3>proven quite true over hundreds of years, I do think

0:36:37.920 --> 0:36:39.400
<v Speaker 3>it's probably the only thing that can save us.

0:36:40.880 --> 0:36:44.000
<v Speaker 4>Actually looked at the numbers yesterday for totally random reason

0:36:44.320 --> 0:36:47.480
<v Speaker 4>on population growth in Europe and received. This is a

0:36:47.480 --> 0:36:50.120
<v Speaker 4>special bonus question. We'll see how smart you are. Which

0:36:50.160 --> 0:36:54.480
<v Speaker 4>country in Europe? Condellly Europe has the highest population growth?

0:36:56.200 --> 0:37:01.720
<v Speaker 3>It's small continental Europe, probably one of the Nordics.

0:37:01.719 --> 0:37:05.560
<v Speaker 2>I would yes, close Luxembourg.

0:37:06.040 --> 0:37:10.360
<v Speaker 4>Okay, something that's going on in Luxembourg. I feel like,

0:37:10.400 --> 0:37:12.839
<v Speaker 4>well all of us need to investigate there. At one

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:14.719
<v Speaker 4>point four nine, which in the day, by the way,

0:37:14.719 --> 0:37:18.800
<v Speaker 4>would be a relatively that's the best performing country. I

0:37:18.840 --> 0:37:21.200
<v Speaker 4>mean in the day, you'd be countries had routinely had

0:37:21.239 --> 0:37:24.879
<v Speaker 4>two points something, you know, percent growth in a given year.

0:37:26.200 --> 0:37:28.520
<v Speaker 2>Last question, you're writing a book. Now we were talking

0:37:28.600 --> 0:37:29.280
<v Speaker 2>chatting about.

0:37:29.080 --> 0:37:34.000
<v Speaker 4>It backstage, and now I appreciate the paradox of this book,

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:36.759
<v Speaker 4>which is in a universe with a model, is better

0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:38.920
<v Speaker 4>in the afternoon than it is in the morning. How

0:37:38.960 --> 0:37:41.120
<v Speaker 4>do you write a book that's like printed on paper?

0:37:41.640 --> 0:37:43.000
<v Speaker 4>I expected to reuseful.

0:37:46.719 --> 0:37:50.640
<v Speaker 3>This is the challenge. And I am an incredible author

0:37:50.680 --> 0:37:53.759
<v Speaker 3>of useless books. I mean most of what I've spent

0:37:53.840 --> 0:37:57.160
<v Speaker 3>time on in the last decade of stuff that's completely useless,

0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:00.120
<v Speaker 3>like a year after it's written. And so when and

0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:02.920
<v Speaker 3>we were talking about it as I would like to

0:38:03.000 --> 0:38:07.880
<v Speaker 3>do something around AI that's timeless, that would be useful

0:38:08.440 --> 0:38:13.279
<v Speaker 3>ten or twenty years from now. But then to your point, so,

0:38:12.800 --> 0:38:17.879
<v Speaker 3>how is that even remotely possible if the model's better

0:38:17.920 --> 0:38:20.440
<v Speaker 3>in the afternoon than in the morning. So that's the

0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:22.560
<v Speaker 3>challenge in front of us. But the book is around

0:38:22.640 --> 0:38:26.759
<v Speaker 3>AI value creation, so kind of links to this productivity paradox,

0:38:27.200 --> 0:38:33.719
<v Speaker 3>and how do you actually get sustained value out of AI,

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:38.480
<v Speaker 3>out of automation, out of data science. And so the

0:38:38.520 --> 0:38:40.640
<v Speaker 3>biggest challenge in front of us is can we make

0:38:40.640 --> 0:38:44.040
<v Speaker 3>this relevant? That's the day that it's published.

0:38:44.120 --> 0:38:45.360
<v Speaker 2>How are you setting out to do that?

0:38:47.480 --> 0:38:50.480
<v Speaker 3>I think you have to to some extent level it

0:38:50.560 --> 0:38:53.200
<v Speaker 3>up to bigger concepts, which is kind of why I

0:38:53.239 --> 0:38:58.840
<v Speaker 3>go to things like macroeconomics, population geography as opposed to

0:38:58.920 --> 0:39:02.239
<v Speaker 3>going into the the weeds of the technology itself. If

0:39:02.280 --> 0:39:04.920
<v Speaker 3>you're write about this is how you get better performance

0:39:04.920 --> 0:39:08.359
<v Speaker 3>out of a model, we can agree that will be

0:39:08.600 --> 0:39:11.520
<v Speaker 3>completely useless two years from now, maybe even two months

0:39:11.560 --> 0:39:15.480
<v Speaker 3>from now, and so it will be less in the

0:39:15.640 --> 0:39:20.280
<v Speaker 3>technical detail and more of what is sustained value creation

0:39:20.440 --> 0:39:23.920
<v Speaker 3>for AI, which if you think on what is hopefully

0:39:23.960 --> 0:39:27.120
<v Speaker 3>a ten or twenty year period. It's probably we're kind

0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:30.560
<v Speaker 3>of substituting AI for technology now, I've realized, because I

0:39:30.600 --> 0:39:33.239
<v Speaker 3>think this has always been true for technology. It's just

0:39:33.320 --> 0:39:36.480
<v Speaker 3>now AI is the thing that everybody wants to talk about.

0:39:37.640 --> 0:39:39.919
<v Speaker 3>But let's see if we can do it. Time will tell.

0:39:40.760 --> 0:39:43.440
<v Speaker 4>Did you get any inkling that the pace that this

0:39:43.560 --> 0:39:46.960
<v Speaker 4>AI year's phenomenon was going to that things with the

0:39:47.000 --> 0:39:49.720
<v Speaker 4>pace of change was going to accelerate so much because

0:39:49.719 --> 0:39:52.440
<v Speaker 4>you had More's law, right, you had a model in

0:39:52.480 --> 0:39:56.920
<v Speaker 4>the technology world for this kind of exponential increase in

0:39:57.800 --> 0:40:03.239
<v Speaker 4>so thinking about that kind of a similar kind of

0:40:03.840 --> 0:40:04.920
<v Speaker 4>acceleration in the.

0:40:07.480 --> 0:40:10.040
<v Speaker 3>I think anybody had said they expected what we're seeing

0:40:10.080 --> 0:40:15.799
<v Speaker 3>today is probably exaggerating. I think it's way faster than

0:40:15.920 --> 0:40:21.239
<v Speaker 3>anybody expected. Yeah, but technologies, back to your point at

0:40:21.239 --> 0:40:25.320
<v Speaker 3>More's law has always accelerated through the years. So I

0:40:25.360 --> 0:40:28.640
<v Speaker 3>wouldn't say it's a shock, but it is surprising.

0:40:29.239 --> 0:40:34.759
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, You've had a kind of extraordinary privileged position to

0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 4>watch and participate in this revolution, right, I mean, how

0:40:37.680 --> 0:40:43.279
<v Speaker 4>many other people have been in that have ridden this wave.

0:40:43.120 --> 0:40:43.480
<v Speaker 2>Like you have.

0:40:44.840 --> 0:40:48.000
<v Speaker 3>I do wonder is this really that much different or

0:40:48.040 --> 0:40:51.080
<v Speaker 3>does it feel different just because we're here. I mean,

0:40:51.320 --> 0:40:54.040
<v Speaker 3>I do think on one level. Yes, So in the

0:40:54.040 --> 0:41:00.880
<v Speaker 3>time I've been an IBM, internet happened, mobile happened, social

0:41:00.920 --> 0:41:05.720
<v Speaker 3>network happened, blockchain happened. AI. So a lot has happened.

0:41:06.040 --> 0:41:07.400
<v Speaker 3>But then you go back and say, well, but if

0:41:07.440 --> 0:41:13.080
<v Speaker 3>I'd been here between nineteen seventy and ninety five, there

0:41:13.080 --> 0:41:15.759
<v Speaker 3>were a lot of things that are pretty fundamental then too,

0:41:15.800 --> 0:41:19.640
<v Speaker 3>So I wondered, almost, do we always exaggerate the timeframe

0:41:19.680 --> 0:41:25.759
<v Speaker 3>that we're in. I don't know. Yeah, but it's a

0:41:25.760 --> 0:41:26.439
<v Speaker 3>good idea though.

0:41:28.360 --> 0:41:31.399
<v Speaker 4>I think the ending with the phrase I don't know

0:41:32.120 --> 0:41:33.240
<v Speaker 4>it's a good idea though.

0:41:34.000 --> 0:41:36.279
<v Speaker 2>It's probably a great way to wrap this up.

0:41:36.680 --> 0:41:42.640
<v Speaker 4>Thank you so much, Thank you, Malcolm. In a field

0:41:42.640 --> 0:41:45.920
<v Speaker 4>that is evolving as quickly as artificial intelligence, it was

0:41:46.040 --> 0:41:49.280
<v Speaker 4>inspiring to see how adaptable Rob has been over his career.

0:41:49.840 --> 0:41:53.560
<v Speaker 4>The takeaways from my conversation with Rob had been echoing

0:41:53.600 --> 0:41:57.439
<v Speaker 4>in my head ever since. He emphasized how open source

0:41:57.520 --> 0:42:02.520
<v Speaker 4>models allow AI technology to be by many players. Openness

0:42:02.560 --> 0:42:06.799
<v Speaker 4>also allows for transparency. Rob told me about AI use

0:42:06.840 --> 0:42:12.560
<v Speaker 4>cases like IBM's collaboration with Sevilla's football club. That example

0:42:12.800 --> 0:42:16.319
<v Speaker 4>really brought home for me how AI technology will touch

0:42:16.440 --> 0:42:21.640
<v Speaker 4>every industry. Despite the potential benefits of AI, challenges exist

0:42:21.880 --> 0:42:26.480
<v Speaker 4>in its widespread adoption. Rob discussed how resistance to change,

0:42:26.760 --> 0:42:31.799
<v Speaker 4>concerns about job security and organizational inertia can slow down

0:42:31.840 --> 0:42:36.720
<v Speaker 4>implementation of AI solutions. The paradox, though, according to Rob,

0:42:37.040 --> 0:42:40.040
<v Speaker 4>is that rather than being afraid of a world with AI,

0:42:40.280 --> 0:42:44.560
<v Speaker 4>people should actually be more afraid of a world without it. AI,

0:42:44.600 --> 0:42:47.440
<v Speaker 4>he believes, has the potential to make the world a

0:42:47.520 --> 0:42:50.640
<v Speaker 4>better place in a way that no other technology can.

0:42:51.560 --> 0:42:55.040
<v Speaker 4>Rob painted an optimistic version of the future, one in

0:42:55.080 --> 0:42:59.879
<v Speaker 4>which AI technology will continue to improve at an exponential rate.

0:43:00.520 --> 0:43:03.719
<v Speaker 4>This will free up workers to dedicate their energy to

0:43:03.920 --> 0:43:09.720
<v Speaker 4>more creative tasks. I for one am on board. Smart

0:43:09.719 --> 0:43:13.440
<v Speaker 4>Talks with IBM is produced by Matt Romano, Joey Fishground

0:43:13.640 --> 0:43:17.680
<v Speaker 4>and Jacob Goldstein. We're edited by Lydia Jane Kott. Our

0:43:17.719 --> 0:43:21.799
<v Speaker 4>engineers are Sarah Bruguier and Ben Holiday theme song by

0:43:21.800 --> 0:43:25.720
<v Speaker 4>Gramscow Special thanks to the eight Bar and ib M teams,

0:43:26.040 --> 0:43:29.080
<v Speaker 4>as well as the Pushkin marketing team. Smart Talks with

0:43:29.120 --> 0:43:32.440
<v Speaker 4>ib M is a production of Pushkin Industries and Ruby

0:43:32.520 --> 0:43:37.440
<v Speaker 4>Studio at iHeartMedia. To find more Pushkin podcasts. Listen on

0:43:37.560 --> 0:43:43.400
<v Speaker 4>the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

0:43:44.040 --> 0:43:47.680
<v Speaker 4>I'm Malcolm Gladwell. This is a paid advertisement from IBM.

0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:54.080
<v Speaker 4>The conversations on this podcast don't necessarily represent IBM's positions, strategies,

0:43:54.560 --> 0:44:01.279
<v Speaker 4>or opinions.