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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by about three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Moolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: That's right, longtime listeners, you heard that right. We are

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Speaker 1: part of the Volume Podcast Network. Again. I will explain

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Speaker 1: it all right after I introduce my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre, my BFF professional better sign in Hunter, and O.

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Speaker 2: So I'm in Hello Chad. So listen.

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Speaker 1: For people who have been listening to the show for

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Speaker 1: a long time, they know that we were part of

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Speaker 1: Colin Cowherd's Volume Network from the day the Volume launched

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Speaker 1: a few years ago. And they know that I do

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Speaker 1: you a Sharper Square segment every week during the NFL

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Speaker 1: segment season with Colin. That is going to continue. We

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Speaker 1: have had a long, wonderful relationship with the Volume. We

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Speaker 1: went off at last year for variety of silly business

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Speaker 1: reasons having nothing to do with our love and affection

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Speaker 1: for the Volume team. And the good news is we

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Speaker 1: got to come back this year, which is fantastic. So

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Speaker 1: we're on the Volume Podcast Network. If you listen on

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Speaker 1: a regular basis and you're subscribing to the Favorites, nothing

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Speaker 1: changes if you're hearing us through the volume, fan Fantastic

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Speaker 1: listen to us through the volume. You're also welcome to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Favorites podcast for those who are new

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Speaker 1: to the show. I am Chad Milman. I am Chief

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Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. We are a media

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Speaker 1: business that focuses entirely on serving the needs of sports betters.

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Speaker 1: Our greatest season is during the NFL for the next

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Speaker 1: six weeks. Simon Hunter, who is a professional better who

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Speaker 1: has been my co host on this show for the

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Speaker 1: past several years. It has made it the number one

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Speaker 1: sports betting podcast in America. Once football season starts. For

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Speaker 1: the next six weeks, Simon and I are going to

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Speaker 1: break down every division in the NFL. We're talking about sides.

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Speaker 1: We're talking I mean, we're talking about win totals. We're

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Speaker 1: talking about division odds. We're talking about Super Bowl odds.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about why we like the teams we like,

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Speaker 1: our expectations for these teams for the year, where the

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Speaker 1: market has it right, where the market has it wrong,

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Speaker 1: what we think the advantages are, Where we think you

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Speaker 1: should stay away during the season. The format for the

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Speaker 1: show has always been. On Tuesdays, Simon and I break

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Speaker 1: down the entire slate start talking about our leans. On Thursday,

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Speaker 1: we nail our five favorite picks that we will put

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Speaker 1: into our free to play one hundred thousand dollars Pick

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Speaker 1: them contest that everybody can enter. Last ye year we

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Speaker 1: had twelve thousand people sign up for this contest. Everybody

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Speaker 1: gets to compete against me and Simon. We put our

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Speaker 1: five favorite picks into the contest, and then Sunday Nights,

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Speaker 1: after the late afternoon games end, but before the Sunday

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Speaker 1: night football game begins, we break down what has gone

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Speaker 1: on during the day, our heartbreaks, our triumphs. We are

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Speaker 1: in it with all of you throughout the entire season.

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Speaker 1: It's a fabulous season. And for our regular listeners, guess

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Speaker 1: what we did it? We have reached division preview season.

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Speaker 1: I am joined today by Simon here in my home

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Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Sadly, none of the tech was working and

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Speaker 1: while we were face to face a mirror moments ago,

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Speaker 1: Simon is now locked in our guest bedroom where I'm

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Speaker 1: going to hold him hostage for the rest of the season.

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Speaker 1: Over the course of the upcoming previews, we will be

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Speaker 1: joined by some big guests this week, just me and

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Speaker 1: Simon Solo. First up, we are discussing the AFC South.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: All right, Simon, enough with the pre limbs. Last season,

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Speaker 1: the Houston Texans and CJ. Stroud were the surprise team,

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Speaker 1: the surprise player of all the NFL season. The Jags

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Speaker 1: were the team everybody was banking on. They were eight

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Speaker 1: and three. Trevor Lawrence gets injured, they creator. The Texans

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Speaker 1: come on strong. They take the division. CJ. Stroud as

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Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year for offense, Will Anderson is DPOY

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Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year. All of a sudden, everyone

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Speaker 1: freaking loves the Texans. When we set this up, some

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Speaker 1: of the things that I just want people to know,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be done talking after this, some of

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Speaker 1: the most important things from a betting perspective, And I

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Speaker 1: know Simon will tell you this, looking at the offensive

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Speaker 1: line and the defensive line when he is thinking about

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Speaker 1: betting is going inside out. So we will talk about

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Speaker 1: the rankings for offensive and defensive line for every team

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Speaker 1: that we talk about, because that's something that gets ignored,

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Speaker 1: but it's paramount for how we look at these teams.

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Speaker 1: Simon the Texans strength the schedule seventh hardest. The way

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Speaker 1: we look at strength to schedule the teams that this

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Speaker 1: team is playing, the total amount of their wins based

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Speaker 1: on season win total projections for twenty twenty four O

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Speaker 1: Line rank twenty second. Laramie Tunsel is amazing. Forty seven

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Speaker 1: sacks allowed, tenth most in the league. D Line tenth

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Speaker 1: feels a little low to me because this edge is

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Speaker 1: stat Will Anderson we talked about he edged out Jalen

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Speaker 1: Carter right at the end of the year for Rookie

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Speaker 1: of the Year. They signed to Neil Hunter from Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: He had sixteen and a half sacks last season. Let's

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Speaker 1: see here, Simon Houston is sixteen to one who win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl plus one oh five to win the

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Speaker 1: Division nine and a half wins. Let's roll brother, I'm

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Speaker 1: saying about the Texans.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Texans are a team in me Chad talked about

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Speaker 3: couple of months ago and that I wanted to fade them.

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Speaker 2: But they've nailed the off season every way.

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Speaker 3: You can imagine. They've attacked a bunch of key positions.

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Speaker 3: They've added guys who we view as big deals, like

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Speaker 3: I mean Diggs. You can say what you want. Diggs

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Speaker 3: did tail off for that team last year. He's in

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Speaker 3: a one year contract deal right now for himself, they

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Speaker 3: literally let him out of his contract, give a one

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Speaker 3: year deal. I mean, Houston, they're doing all they can

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Speaker 3: to maximize this rookie deal. And little did they know

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Speaker 3: that in year two of that rookie deal they would

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Speaker 3: be like, Okay, we can go all in on this.

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Speaker 3: This is the guy, this is the kid. Like it

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Speaker 3: usually takes a year or two to figure that out.

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Speaker 3: They knew after one year just because I mean, I

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Speaker 3: don't CJ's numbers run of me, but I'm almost positive

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Speaker 3: he was twenty six touchdowns and five interceptions.

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Speaker 2: I mean, people, a lot of people ask us about that.

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Speaker 2: You had to like, why do you have him so.

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Speaker 3: Much higher above your view of Jordan Love. Jordan Love

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Speaker 3: got to sit behind Aaron Rodgers for three years and

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Speaker 3: then take over on offense.

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Speaker 2: None of that for CJ.

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Speaker 3: CJ was in college last year, then thrown to the Wolves,

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Speaker 3: and charge said he won this division. So respective wise,

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Speaker 3: will I be invested in this team?

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Speaker 2: Not really?

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Speaker 3: Like, I just I'm not gonna bet them divisional odds wise,

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Speaker 3: I just don't love the value there for.

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Speaker 2: A team that people are forgetting.

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Speaker 3: The last game of the year, they needed to beat

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Speaker 3: Minshoot to win the division and make the playoffs. Here

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Speaker 3: that wasn't like they dominated and they won in the

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter at the bear end of the game, like

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Speaker 3: it's a team that is really good.

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Speaker 2: They have improved. Chad's gonna talk about their offensive line.

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Speaker 3: It's tough to say what the deals with offense line

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Speaker 3: because last year they had the most injured offensive line

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Speaker 3: in all football and CJ still put up those numbers.

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Speaker 3: I just told you you still only had five interceptions. Like,

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Speaker 3: we've never seen anything like this in my entire life

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Speaker 3: cover in football. We've never seen a rookie do what

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Speaker 3: CJ did last year. So I'll talk to professionals. They're

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Speaker 3: banking on regression from CJ. I know some other guys

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Speaker 3: are all in on his Super Bowl bets. They're all

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Speaker 3: in on his MVP futures because second year is a

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Speaker 3: big jump. Like if you're the guy you don't regress

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Speaker 3: second year, you usually take a big jump. I mean

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Speaker 3: Mahomes his first year as a starter, he went MVP

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Speaker 3: the second year Super Bowl champion, Like we've just seen

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Speaker 3: time and time again Joe Burrow second year and made

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Speaker 3: it to a super Bowl, like we see usually these

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Speaker 3: guys the second year they do take that step. So personally,

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Speaker 3: am I gonna invest money fading CJ in this team

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Speaker 3: even though I should? No like Chad's right, I just

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Speaker 3: I don't like it. I don't trust number either. Nine

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Speaker 3: and a half is a bizarre number where it's like,

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Speaker 3: I really want to take that under. I don't know

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Speaker 3: why it's not up to ten ten and a half

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Speaker 3: yet with the all the guys they've.

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Speaker 2: Added, But this is what Vegas does. They're saying, do

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Speaker 2: it again.

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Speaker 3: That's what they're basically saying to people that when I

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Speaker 3: bet Houston when a best cjsay, prove you're not a fluke,

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Speaker 3: because we think you are a fluke.

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Speaker 2: That's why they're giving him this number right now.

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Speaker 3: They're saying, in this division, we don't think it's a

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Speaker 3: slam dunk team like everyone's making them out to be.

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Speaker 3: So really intro perspective about Vegas, where my perspective is

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Speaker 3: this team, I could see them.

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Speaker 2: I mean we could all say we could see CJ

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Speaker 2: playing Mahomes in the AFC Championship game like that. That's

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Speaker 2: a ceiling for them.

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Speaker 3: The floor is he isn't what he was last year.

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Speaker 3: That was just totally fluke. The team does regress. They're

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Speaker 3: an eight to nine team, a nine to eight team,

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Speaker 3: which that's literally what Vegas is telling you the hanging

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Speaker 3: this number at nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: The most interesting thing here is the dynamics of the

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Speaker 1: rookie contract and the Texans realizing, holy shit, we got

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Speaker 1: something so special in this guy, which is why they

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Speaker 1: go out and get Stefan Diggs, who was basically played

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Speaker 1: himself out of two different franchises now, even though he's

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Speaker 1: one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. Right

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Speaker 1: played him, setself out in Minnesota, laid himself out of

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Speaker 1: Buffalo to the point where they were barely using them

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Speaker 1: at the end of the year, when they were a

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Speaker 1: team that felt like they were going on to the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl and that their window was right now meeting

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Speaker 1: last year. Then they got Danielle Hunter, who is just

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Speaker 1: a monster like he has had an incredible two years.

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Speaker 2: They are they give a mercenary contract. Chat.

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Speaker 3: I think they gave him like a two year and

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Speaker 3: then a ton of money. They're like, yeah, I'm here

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Speaker 3: and get this ring us while we got this rookie contract.

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Speaker 1: And I love their theory every time. We will pay

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Speaker 1: you if you prove it and by the way, we'll

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Speaker 1: take the risk, you know what I mean. Like there

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Speaker 1: is a very good chance both of these guys get

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Speaker 1: monster deals in their next go around because they're on

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Speaker 1: such short term deals and can outperform them so easily,

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Speaker 1: and they will. The Texans will have to decide are

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Speaker 1: we going to pay are we not going to pay

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Speaker 1: if someone else is going to be in the market.

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Speaker 1: I like the way either thinking about constructing this team

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Speaker 1: with CJ. Shroud in his rookie deal, but nine and

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Speaker 1: a half is a trap. I'm not going to invest

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Speaker 1: in this team either way. Like sixteen to one feels

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Speaker 1: like the odds are too low, way too low at

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Speaker 1: this point. Like they also, by the way, added Joe Mixon,

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Speaker 1: which we didn't even say. But here's a great stat

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Speaker 1: for those who don't know and are new to the show.

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Speaker 1: Evan abrams Crack researcher runs actions ESPN group piece on

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Speaker 1: the show with us every Tuesday every Thursday with great stats.

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Speaker 1: Has so many fans, here's a true story, so many fans.

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Speaker 1: Evan has that when we've done our live shows, people

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Speaker 1: have shown up with real jerseys NFL jerseys and asked

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Speaker 1: os Evan to sign those NFL jerseys with their favorite

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Speaker 1: stats of their favorite team. Here's a stat from Evan

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Speaker 1: Abrams biggest Super Bowl odds move to twenty to one

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Speaker 1: or shorter year to year since nineteen seventy seven. Houston

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Speaker 1: Texans went from two hundred to one last year to

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Speaker 1: fourteen to one this year. That is the third biggest

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Speaker 1: move since nineteen seventy seven. The biggest three hundred to

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Speaker 1: one was Dallas seventy nine to eighty. They moved from

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Speaker 1: three hundred to one to eight to one, and then

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Speaker 1: in ninety to ninety one Dallas moved from two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty to one to twenty to one. By the way,

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Speaker 1: none of those teams were in the Super Bowl. So

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Speaker 1: those are the stakes for the Texans right now. All

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Speaker 1: of which to say, I'm not going to fade this team,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not a buyer on this team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Too many unknowns.

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Speaker 3: Don't bet like Chad just broke it down for you.

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Speaker 3: Do not bet those Super Bowl odds like you. When

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Speaker 3: you put into your mind that he could have a

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Speaker 3: path three. He needs to go through Joe Burrow, Josh Allen,

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Speaker 3: then Mahomes or Lamar. There's just too many guys there

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Speaker 3: where it's like.

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Speaker 2: Can't do it.

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Speaker 3: Can take them at fourteen to one on those kind

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Speaker 3: of odds against those kind of guys, right, guys who

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Speaker 3: you can say Lamar has improved it, but I mean

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Speaker 3: there's no doubt Joe Burrow has proven it, no doubt

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Speaker 3: out Obviously Mahomes has proven it. Mean even Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: is only kryptonite is Mahomes. So to me, it's too

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Speaker 3: much love for the new guy to the party, right,

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Speaker 3: It's just people like the new toys, So that's why

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Speaker 3: they're getting all the love. But please don't bet these odds.

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Speaker 3: They've just they've moved too much.

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Speaker 1: Let's transition to the next team here, because we didn't

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Speaker 1: mention in that who you just mentioned the quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: who until recently was the highest paid quarterback in NFL history.

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Speaker 1: Last year was supposed to be the year that he

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Speaker 1: took that next step with Doug Peterson and he didn't. Right,

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Speaker 1: But remember, and this is what gets forgotten, and this

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Speaker 1: is why betting is so interesting. It's all about recency bias.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget the Jacksonville Jaguars were eight and three. Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence gets hurt, this team creators and the Texans go

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Speaker 1: on to win the division. If this team doesn't get hurt,

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Speaker 1: if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt, we're having different conversations.

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Speaker 1: This is why the challenge for me is betting on

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Speaker 1: the Texans, because the Jaguars could be the team that

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Speaker 1: they were supposed to be throughout the entire year last year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we like the Jags.

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Speaker 3: Me and Chad have a special place in our heart

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Speaker 3: with them because they hit a ten to one divisional

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Speaker 3: bet for US two years ago. And we obviously like

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Speaker 3: Doug Peterson, this is the way the team has built

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Speaker 3: as well, Like Chad nailed it. If Trivor didn't get

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Speaker 3: hurt and they didn't just totally tank end of the season.

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Speaker 3: I think they won two games in the final ten weeks.

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Speaker 3: You just those things aren't predictable, right. That's why we

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Speaker 3: say all the time we love this game because it's

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Speaker 3: just random things like that happen.

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Speaker 2: Right, It's a bad of nutrition. Can you last? Right?

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Speaker 2: Can your body hold up?

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Speaker 3: And my big issue right now the Jaguars is the

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Speaker 3: defensive side. Like to me, I have them even when

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Speaker 3: the guys Tennessee's added, I probably have them rated fourth.

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Speaker 2: Team right now this division for defensive side.

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Speaker 3: Now offensively, I don't think Calvin really losing Calvin really

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Speaker 3: that big of a deal. I just don't know how

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Speaker 3: well fit into their system. And I mean, I'm sure

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Speaker 3: you guys have seen in social media people have made

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Speaker 3: clips of his drops which are absolutely brutal. Most other

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Speaker 3: guys are in the professional league are catching those. So

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Speaker 3: Christian Kirk, you assume last year when he went out

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Speaker 3: another guy that Trevor Lawrence is a big safety blanket,

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Speaker 3: it affected him going forward. Once Christian Kirk got hurt,

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Speaker 3: we assume he'll be healthy back in his position.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's had a good camp so far.

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Speaker 3: So They're another team that I've invested a small amount

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Speaker 3: of their over total.

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Speaker 2: I haven't touched. I haven't touched their Super Bowl outs.

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Speaker 1: Chat.

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Speaker 2: I just once again, we're talking about the AFC.

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Speaker 3: It's just there's a guy up top there that just

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Speaker 3: kind of warrants not me investing long term in some

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Speaker 3: of these teams, especially a Jaguars team, which you know

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Speaker 3: the reason mean you, I think as well really loved

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Speaker 3: him last year was Trevor Lawrence had an incredible comeback

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Speaker 3: against Herbert Right. That come back in a playoffs last

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Speaker 3: year before. Yeah, it was incredible, like people might not

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Speaker 3: remember they were down I believe twenty twenty one points

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Speaker 3: and he came all the way back and won that game.

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Speaker 3: I think now we're starting to realize that might have

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Speaker 3: said more about the Chargers and their last head coach

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Speaker 3: they fired than it did so much about Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 3: and this Jaguars team.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not leaving them for dead.

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Speaker 3: I still have them graded out above the culture we're

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Speaker 3: about to talk about as the number two team miss division.

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Speaker 3: But the price of their upside, there's other teams I'd

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Speaker 3: rather bet in this division them, so don't. I've taken

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Speaker 3: a little bit on their over have not bet them divisionally,

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Speaker 3: have not bet them future market for Bowl either. So

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Speaker 3: I think Chad's being right about it, though I might

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Speaker 3: have a little bit of recently buyas to it. I

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Speaker 3: just don't think they've done enough defensively to give me

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Speaker 3: faith if they can really stop two other quarterbacks, I

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Speaker 3: have a lot of faith in this division, So yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's all once again, it's I think it's all gonna

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Speaker 3: be put on Trevor Lawrence's shoulders and we can We'll

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Speaker 3: see if you can hold it up right now. He

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Speaker 3: held up one year and the next year he did not,

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Speaker 3: So it's gonna be interesting how this team performs this

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Speaker 3: coming season.

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Speaker 1: Jags are fifty to one to win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Wow, I didn't know it got that low. They were

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Speaker 2: forty to one, so they've dropped.

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Speaker 1: Lost two seventy five to win the division. Eight and

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Speaker 1: a half is their season win total. So you've got

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a taste on the ISD.

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Speaker 2: Just because I'm at nine and eight.

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Speaker 3: So again, it's not enough of an edge to really

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Speaker 3: make me load up on it, but I do have

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Speaker 3: them at.

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Speaker 2: Nine and eight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be interesting. Like there's we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about Indy, who I think is a fascinating team,

359
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Speaker 1: and if you're looking to invest, that might be the

360
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Speaker 1: more interesting sort of upside play. The Jags feel like

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Speaker 1: they're priced exactly where they should be, Like they're middle

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Speaker 1: of the road prove it team right now, right now,

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Speaker 1: the bloom is off the roads because they weren't good

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Speaker 1: enough last year, and to be honest, even last year

365
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Speaker 1: eight and three was a struggle, like they weren't playing great.

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence hadn't taken that next step that I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people thought he was going to take.

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Speaker 1: So to go in on this team right now, when

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden we know the Texans are better,

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Speaker 1: doesn't feel like a really wise thing to do. Their

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule is nineteenth, so it's kind of middle

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Speaker 1: of the road, no advantage there. Their offensive line rank

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Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, who we use for their

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Speaker 1: ranking of the Pro Football Focus offensive and defensive line rankings,

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Speaker 1: and their player of grades, and we'll talk a lot

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Speaker 1: about those in the shows in the coming weeks. All

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Speaker 1: we can say about their offensive line a lot of

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Speaker 1: former first round picks who can't keep Trevor Lawrence healthy.

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Speaker 1: They are a middling, underperforming group that has not done

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Speaker 1: its job. And you mentioned the defense right like, everyone

381
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Speaker 1: knows about now known as Josh Harris Allen, who just

382
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Speaker 1: signed a massive new contract seventeen and a half sacks

383
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Speaker 1: last year. They know about Trayvon Walker, who was the

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Speaker 1: number one overall pick taking two years ago, ahead of

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Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson.

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Speaker 2: And we said the time that that was a mistake.

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Speaker 1: At the time, it felt like a mistake. I think

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Speaker 1: it still feels like a mistake. I think like Trayvon Walker,

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Speaker 1: he he got to eleven sacks last year, but it

390
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Speaker 1: was a very quiet eleven sacks, right like Aiden Hutchinson.

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Speaker 1: You see Aden Hutchinson in a game and you feel

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Speaker 1: like he's making an impact regardless of the overall number,

393
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Speaker 1: and like his numbers went down in the second half

394
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Speaker 1: of last year, but that's also because he's being double

395
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Speaker 1: and triple teamed and teams are running away from him.

396
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Speaker 1: They're running bootlegs away from him. Quarterbacks know that he's coming,

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Speaker 1: so they're getting the teams are game planning against Aden Hutchinson.

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Speaker 1: They aren't game planning against Trayvon Walker. They're game planning

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Speaker 1: against Josh Haris Allen. So you're Trayvon Walker and you're

400
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Speaker 1: getting single teamed and nobody is game planning against you.

401
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,360
Speaker 1: Against you, you should get eleven sacks, like you are

402
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Speaker 1: underperforming to the next level if you're not getting eleven sacks.

403
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Speaker 1: They did get some help with Eric Armstead from the Niners,

404
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Speaker 1: who's great, but their D line rank it's it's a

405
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Speaker 1: pretty shallow defensive line. So I understand your concerns about

406
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Speaker 1: the defense.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and they have a top five corner as well,

408
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 3: but it's just they have a bunch of pieces that

409
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Speaker 3: are still just missing on that defense.

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Speaker 2: That's their issue.

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Speaker 1: And look, you and I love Doug Peterson, right, Like

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Speaker 1: what Doug Peterson did with the Eagles and Nick Foles

413
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Speaker 1: and Philly Philly and getting him to the Super Bowl

414
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Speaker 1: and then winning the Super Bowl, it was one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest bets you've ever won in your life. It

416
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Speaker 1: was a huge bet the first year that Action had

417
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Speaker 1: launched that we all talked about. That got us a

418
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Speaker 1: ton of credibility and audience, so we were super excited

419
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Speaker 1: about it. We always got a soft spot for Doug Peterson.

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Speaker 1: We kind of expected him to have done more with

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: At this point, I agree.

423
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Speaker 1: Indianapolis' cult Shane Steichen worked some miracles last year. This

424
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Speaker 1: team sixty five to one to win the Super Bowl,

425
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Speaker 1: plus three ten to win the division. Season win total

426
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Speaker 1: eight and a half. We had Anthony Richardson last year

427
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Speaker 1: for four games, So now we got to ask ourselves.

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Speaker 1: We loved Anthony Richardson as a rookie. I think he

429
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Speaker 1: in those four games showed a winner's mentality. We loved

430
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Speaker 1: what he was doing, but also showed that he's fragile

431
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Speaker 1: because he was hurt frequently until he was out for

432
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Speaker 1: the season, and he was running a lot and playing

433
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Speaker 1: physical in the NFL, which is a recipe for a

434
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Speaker 1: very short career.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but I love it.

436
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: I want to if I'm gonna go big in the

437
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 3: future market as someone of the team, I'm not. It's

438
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 3: just their upside is so tremendous that this kid can

439
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 3: be what we all think he can be, which is

440
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 3: Cam Newton two to point oven right, a great athlete

441
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 3: with an incredible arm that, yes, is he gonna miss

442
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 3: some really easy throws right across the middle saale them

443
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: over people heads, just like Cam Newton.

444
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 2: I do think he will.

445
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 3: It's just part of the game with the guys like this,

446
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 3: were these big athletes that.

447
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: Are just raw.

448
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,479
Speaker 3: I mean last year Chat talked about it. The kid

449
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 3: played one year in Florida, got drafted at twenty twenty

450
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 3: years old, So when he was a starter last year,

451
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 3: I don't know if he had turned twenty one or

452
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 3: he still was twenty, but he was just so young,

453
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: and they made the offense so simple, like the That's

454
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 3: why the people are still in love with this guy,

455
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: because it wasn't just the design runs that were so impressive,

456
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 3: it was the design places get him outside the pocket,

457
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 3: him on the move. He's actually really accurate on the

458
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 3: move outside the pocket, like it's a.

459
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 2: Strength of his.

460
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 3: We already know he has an incredible deep ball, but

461
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 3: now we're mixing in that. To me, their offensive line

462
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 3: is one of the best units they've had in I

463
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 3: don't know pet since Peyton Manning, so I know Jeff

464
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 3: Saturday retired what twelve thirteen years ago. It feels like

465
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 3: that was the last time they had this type of

466
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: rating to me on their offensive line. Okay, now we

467
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 3: know we don't have a Jonathan Taylor hold out either,

468
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 3: to deal with the whole offseason. He is in camp

469
00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 3: day one, ready to go. You might not remember it,

470
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 3: but he was a top three, top four running back

471
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: in football.

472
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 2: Big deal.

473
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 3: Now you have a number one outside of Pittman. That's

474
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 3: a big deal. I have a guy outside. They have

475
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 3: a couple of guys upcoming to wide receivers that are

476
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 3: really talented as well. You put that all together, that

477
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 3: again we talk about the year two step. That's what

478
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 3: I'm banking on here, Anthony Richardson. I'm betting on him

479
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 3: to make that year two jump. If he doesn't, me

480
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 3: and Chad will never view him the same, right, we

481
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 3: won't next year. I won't be here trying to make

482
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 3: excuses for him blowing smoke up you guys. It's just

483
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 3: like no people are right. Chad said it. The guy

484
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 3: can't take hits. Last year he only gave us eight games.

485
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: I'm not putting more money on this kid the following

486
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 3: year because last year I view as a flukey injury.

487
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 3: Like guys are gonna get hit, right, I mean, that's

488
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 3: just part of the deal, whether you're a runner or not.

489
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 3: Even the player he got injured on it truly wasn't

490
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 3: as if he was like going looking for the contact, right.

491
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 3: I just think he fell wrong in the guy and

492
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 3: hit his shoulder wrong. And that was a season. Now

493
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 3: people are worried because he's only been having some days

494
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 3: where he's only throwing five to six passes and certain

495
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 3: practices and they're giving him rest days.

496
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 2: I think it's just because it's July.

497
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 3: Guys like I just think they're gonna take it nice

498
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 3: and easy with their prize possession.

499
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 2: I've even you know, Chad talked about change.

500
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 3: Second guy I even talk about yet, I have so

501
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 3: much respect for this guy's a coach. Like if you

502
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 3: just watch what he did with that offense last year,

503
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 3: you go to the year before we almost got Hurts

504
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: and MVP.

505
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 2: This guy is it right?

506
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 3: When the Eagles lost him, I didn't realize how big

507
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: of a deal he was for their success until I

508
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 3: did watch the Colts' offense where it's like they have

509
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 3: a ton of motion. They have a ton of just

510
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 3: getting people off balance, especially defense defenses. Now you're mixing

511
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 3: in he did this with minshear right. Now you bring

512
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 3: in one of the best athletes I can recall in

513
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 3: the NFL. It's just the sky's a limit for this team.

514
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,119
Speaker 3: So yeah, sixty five to one. I know I just

515
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: talked about not really wanting to bet, you know, the

516
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 3: Jaguars at fifty to one. That's what I think this

517
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 3: team should be closer. I think they should be fifty

518
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 3: to one, forty five to one. Again, their wintals are

519
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 3: the same. I think it's eight and a half for

520
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 3: both these teams. I much rather invest in this upside

521
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 3: of this team where I do trust our offense. I

522
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 3: do have a bunch of guys with good grades on

523
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 3: their defensive line that yeah, they're no name like I mean,

524
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 3: I think they have the Forest Buccaner on the line

525
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,479
Speaker 3: who people know from his days on the forty nine ers,

526
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 3: and he is really solid. But across the board they

527
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: have a lot of guys they can rotate in that

528
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 3: defensive tackles are good. You know, They're just a team

529
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 3: that even last year Houston they played them really hard.

530
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 2: Especially defensively.

531
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 3: So as you know, if you're a fan of the show,

532
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 3: week one, me and Chad have bet the Colts at

533
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 3: home against Houston.

534
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 2: That really sets the tone for the season. That's the

535
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: kind of.

536
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: Game where Chad just said, they're they're division odds plus

537
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 3: three ten if they win that game. What do you

538
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 3: think Chad plus two hundred division odds for the Colts

539
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: team just because of one game. So that's the kind

540
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 3: of team why I want to invest in them.

541
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 1: Now, Yes, I was going to say, for me in

542
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: this division, this is the team you got a pinpoint right,

543
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: And to me, it's not the super Bowl odds and

544
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily their season win total. It's the plus

545
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: three ten. I think that's where the most value is.

546
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: And if you're going to invest your money now and

547
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: have to wait until the end of the season for

548
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: a payout, I'd rather take a little bit more of

549
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: a flyer on the plus three ten. Divisions change every year,

550
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: like whatever we thought happened, whatever happened last year, is

551
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: not what we think is going to happen this year.

552
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: There is a stat Evan Abrams has that we're going

553
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: to talk about in every single division preview, which is,

554
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: and it doesn't apply to the Colts this year. In

555
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: nineteen of the past twenty one seasons, ninety one percent

556
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: of the time an NFL team has gone from worst

557
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 1: to first in this division. It did happen last year.

558
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: The Texans went from worst to first in their division.

559
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 1: They nailed their draft, they nailed their head coaching pick,

560
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: They had some great luck with Anthony Richardson going down,

561
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: with Trevor Lawrence going down, Tennessee being in a down

562
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: year where everything was cratering. So it does happen. We're

563
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 1: going to talk about that a regular basis in these previews.

564
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 1: To back up Simon here, offensive line rank for the

565
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: Colts three. Okay, their offensive tackle duo was arguably the

566
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 1: best in the league. Left tackle is Bernard Raymonds, right

567
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: tackle Braden Smith. Each finished amongst the seventh highest graded

568
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: offensive tackles in twenty twenty three. Ryan Kelly highest graded

569
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: center in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus. All

570
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 1: five starting lineman in return for twenty twenty four didn't

571
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: even mention Quenton Nelson. He still grades out as a

572
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: top fifteen guard. So you've got a top three offensive

573
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: line protecting Anthony Richardson, also opening holes for Jonathan Taylor, who,

574
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 1: like you said, will be playing healthy and playing the

575
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: full season because he's from back from his contract negotiations

576
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: and won't be holding out. Meanwhile, their defensive line is

577
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: seventh grader than the NFL.

578
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 3: It's all there, and then you add in top that

579
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 3: we have such high respect for their head coach. It's

580
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 3: like this is these are the kind teams we talked.

581
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: About Shane steichen Sion, Like we love this guy. It

582
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: we love like, we love him so much because we

583
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: realized halfway through the Eagles season how much of a

584
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: genius he was that team, because that.

585
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: The wrong guy.

586
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like what he did with Anthony Richardson to

587
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: start the season and then what he was able to

588
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 1: do with Gardner Minshew throughout the rest of the year

589
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: and just.

590
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 2: On the fly and Justin on the fly guys.

591
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah, we love this team. Love it, love it.

592
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: If you haven't understood it. We're in on the Colts

593
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: at plus three ten to win their division. Meanwhile, Tennessee

594
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: for Tennessee like this team. Boy, we used to love

595
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel. He was our guy. One of the coaches

596
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: who was better as an underdog than anybody else the

597
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 1: past twenty years. Only Mike Tomlin that are automatic bet

598
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: when he was an underdog. Last year was a tough year.

599
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: So now he's out. Brian Callahan, former offensive coordinated for

600
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 1: the Bengals, is in. Will Levis is the quarterback knew

601
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: basically knew everything right. Derrick Henry is out. Tennessee is

602
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one to win the Super Bowl,

603
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: ten to one plus two thousand to win the division.

604
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: Season win total is four and a half. Not a

605
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: lot to write home around here. Their offensive line is thirtieth.

606
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 1: Here's the thing I would say that I really like

607
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: about their offensive line. They've invested in it. Peter Skarnsky,

608
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: the offensive lineman from Northwestern last year, Jc Latham, the

609
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: offensive lineman from Alabama this year, back to back first

610
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: round picks. Here's the most important thing, I think. And

611
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: we'll get to the defensive line after you. I want

612
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: you to comment on this. Brian Callahan's father is Bill Callahan.

613
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, Bill Callen, who coached the

614
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Super Bowl against John Gruden

615
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: and the Raiders in like two thousand and three, I

616
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: mean coach the Raiders to the super Bowl against John

617
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: Gruden and the Bucks in two thousand and three, is

618
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: known as the best offensive line coach in the NFL.

619
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: So now he is with his son coaching a new

620
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: offensive line, coaching a young offensive line. This is thirtieth

621
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: to me with a bullet and it will be interesting

622
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: to see how well this team does as the season

623
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: goes on.

624
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we just went from me, it's so possible

625
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: the Colts. Now it's like, I hate to do it,

626
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: t Tennessee. I'm just gonna be shitting on you. I

627
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 3: just all of it, even stuff I'm ringing in camp.

628
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 3: I just don't see how it's gonna work out.

629
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 2: Will love us.

630
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 3: And it's funny where we talked last year about how

631
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 3: this last year's draft was going to shape this division

632
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 3: for the next ten years. Little did we know that

633
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 3: CJ was gonna be the one right that was gonna be,

634
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: you know, the future right taking over his division so fast.

635
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 3: And you know, I said, Anthony Richard, if he hits,

636
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 3: he's gonna be the guy in this division. If Will

637
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 3: Levis hits for Tennessee, he could be this guy in

638
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: the division. And you know, we did see flashes right

639
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: that Miami game. One of our bigger bets last year

640
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 3: was the Bills to come back and win this division,

641
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 3: and we needed a miracle from Will Levis to kind

642
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 3: of set those things in motion and come and beat

643
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 3: that Miami team. I think he scored fourteen points in

644
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: like two minutes to an incredible comeback.

645
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: But that's the issue. He is so bad and inconsistent.

646
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: The guy.

647
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: He could throw these incredible deep passes to Hopkins, but

648
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 3: for a third and five, you're dead. I mean, he's

649
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 3: not picking you up those five yards. It doesn't matter

650
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 3: what the players driven draw up. Last year, he would

651
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 3: get happy feet. Like Arry I talked they had a

652
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 3: bad offensive line. They're trying to improve it. But all

653
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 3: the lines up for me to bet this.

654
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: Team to have the worst record in football, Like.

655
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 3: They're just they fit the perfect description of a team

656
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 3: that I don't really have trust for faith in the

657
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 3: coach yet, and I don't really trust it all the

658
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 3: quarterback and the things I read from the beat writers,

659
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 3: it doesn't sound like he's improved. He sounds like he's

660
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: inconsistent still in these practices. And that's that's the fear.

661
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I tryed to take too much

662
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: away from OTA's right because they're working on stuff then,

663
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 3: but stuff I read it's like, no, he's still inconsistent.

664
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 3: He's still against air, is overthrowing guys or under throwing guys.

665
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 3: That's a big issue when the NFL. You have to

666
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 3: be perfect, like you just you just do because that's

667
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: what everyone else is aiming for. Like these other guys

668
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 3: that are inconsistent, they eventually fade away.

669
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 2: They eventually turned to a Ryan Tannehill.

670
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 3: It's like maybe we can, you know, have such a

671
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: good team, we can get by and get us there.

672
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: That's not this team here in Tennessee.

673
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 3: Right, They've lost a lot of key positions, So the

674
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: fact that variable left as well, it's just at plus

675
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: eight hundred plus nine hundred for them to have worst record,

676
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 3: Like they're on my list right now. I mean, we're

677
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 3: going to get to these other teams on my list,

678
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 3: but they're one of the three I've kind of zero

679
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: in on. It's like I could easily see this team

680
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 3: tanking because their division is so good, and if will

681
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: love Us isn't that guy, why wouldn't they want to

682
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 3: get up and get a good new guy with a

683
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 3: new head coach who they just brought in, right, So uh,

684
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 3: to me, it's it's our make or break here for

685
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 3: wll of leves like they're gonna be quick to move

686
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 3: on for we STANDFL is different now, right, teams are

687
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 3: quick to move on because their working contract is the

688
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 3: key for so many of these teams.

689
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: So even if he did all right, we.

690
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 3: Could see another scenari where it's like justin fields, where

691
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, he wasn't the worst team the

692
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 3: worst quarterback in the league, but the team at an

693
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 3: opportunity to go in a different direction, so they took it,

694
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 3: and I feel like Tennessee will.

695
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 2: Go the same way. Where it's we'll love us.

696
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 3: Was the second round pick, and you know there's a

697
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 3: bunch of reasons he went in that second round, and

698
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 3: we're kind of seeing it. So yeah, I know it's

699
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 3: it's tough to hear Tennessee. But you guys being one

700
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one, that's right for your super Bowl.

701
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: It's four and a half. That's a that that sounds

702
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 3: right to me. You guys are in a tough division now,

703
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 3: like we just talked about it, So it's it's all

704
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 3: there for them to be possibly the worst team in football.

705
00:34:57,840 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: But it's also all there. Cheat.

706
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 3: I talked about your little bit box, bringing in the

707
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 3: best offensive line of coach, drafting offensive line players, bringing

708
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 3: in Calvin Ridley to be a weapon on the outside

709
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: outside of Hopkins on the other side. So it is

710
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 3: there are pieces there to make you know, the like

711
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,919
Speaker 3: progress happen. I'm just I'm not seeing it or reading

712
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 3: it right now, So I just have to go off

713
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 3: when I'm reading off these beat writers, and that's just

714
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: that Will Loves has not showed up what they expected.

715
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: Him to be.

716
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 1: Defensive line ranking is twenty first stand out there as

717
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons who was the standout every year. I feel

718
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 1: like he's one of those guys who in years past

719
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 1: when we talked about Tennessee, we loved he'd be a

720
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: guy who would make us be more comfortable betting on

721
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: Tennessee in sort of an underdog position because he didn't

722
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: get enough credit. He's just got nothing around him right

723
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: now to really make an impact for a team. We

724
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: just don't think they have the talent. I see more

725
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 1: about who Will Levis is dating. There was just a

726
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 1: story this morning in the New York Post that Will

727
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: Levis is potentially dating a former bachelorette. Then I hear

728
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: anything about Will Levis and his performance during the offseason

729
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: or the confidence the Titans have in him, or is

730
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: he the next great quarterback? And you're not wrong, Like

731
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: Justin Fields, Bears moved off from quickly, Trey Lance, Niners

732
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 1: dropped them as soon as Brock Purdy was throwing passes.

733
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 3: They were accurate, right, They're just not that team that

734
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 3: people aren't talking about them, right, And that's kind of

735
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:28,720
Speaker 3: where we're at with this team.

736
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: Sad.

737
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: There used to be a team we loved this year,

738
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: the team we love from this division, the Indianapolis Colts

739
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 1: plus three ten. We might want to bet the Tennessee

740
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: Titans plus eight hundred plus nine hundred to have the

741
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: worst record in the NFL. A little bit of a

742
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: taste on the Jags and they're over. Other than that,

743
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 1: we're pretty much staying away from everything. So to recap

744
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: again quickly, Colts plus three ten, Titans, worst record in

745
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: the league, Jags in that order. By the way, those

746
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: are the bets that we like the most from the

747
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,960
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748
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Speaker 1: Simon and I are back with our next episode of

762
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Speaker 1: the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, eleven

763
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 1: am Eastern to Talk NFC South. Download us from Spotify,

764
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,

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00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as

766
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 1: a gift until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds

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