1 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: On this episode of newts World. President Trump concluded a 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: four day, three nation visit to the Middle East this week, 3 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: where he announced multi billion dollar deals for USAir companies, 4 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: including a large order from Gutter for Boeing jets. He 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: announced that he would lift US sanctions on Syria and 6 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: met with Syria's new president, Akman al Shara, and he 7 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: suggested there has been progress in nuclear talks with Iran 8 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: for long term peace. Here to discuss President Trump's trip 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: to the Middle East. I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: Elon Berman. He is Senior Vice president of the American 11 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: Foreign Policy Council in Washington, d C. An expert on 12 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the 13 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: Russian Federation. He has consulted for the US Central Intelligence 14 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: Agency as well as the US Departments of State and Defense, 15 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues 16 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: to a range of governmental agencies and congressional office. Leon, 17 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 1: welcome and thank you for joining me on news World. 18 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: Oh, thank you so much for having me back. 19 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: Okay, now we're going to talk about Trump this week, 20 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,559 Speaker 1: but just for I'm going to share with our audience 21 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: what you were telling me about your last week when 22 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: you were in Europe. 23 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: All right, Well, I just got back from a couple 24 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,279 Speaker 2: of weeks on the road. I was in Europe first 25 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: where I got caught in the Iberian blackout that we saw, 26 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 2: and then I traveled to Israel, where I caught the 27 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 2: tail end of the disruption from the hoothy ballistic missile 28 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 2: attack on the Israeli national airport on Bencourine Airport. So 29 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: I've been told that I'm not a safe companion to 30 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 2: travel with. 31 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: I was gonna say, you managed to find ways to 32 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: say keep life interesting. So I mean you have a 33 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,040 Speaker 1: look at this for a long time. What is this 34 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: year overview of this trip. What do you think is 35 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: the long term significance of President Trump's visit. 36 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: Well, I think it's useful to remember that President Trump's 37 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 2: outing to the Middle East in his first term in 38 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 2: office was enormously successful, and it had very much the 39 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 2: same trajectory. The idea was to raise America's profile in 40 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 2: the region. The idea was to build assurance and demonstrate 41 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: that the United States is fully engaged in the region. 42 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 2: But the context this time, I think is a little 43 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 2: bit different because the administration advisedly has a quite different 44 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 2: foreign policy than it did the last time. The Abraham Accords, 45 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 2: the normalization wave with Israel as a far lower priority, 46 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 2: But the administration is making a very high stakes gamble 47 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 2: on renewed diplomacy with Iran, with the Islamic Republic of Iran, 48 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 2: and so I saw that as the strategic backdrop for 49 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 2: everything that the President was trying to do. Because the 50 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 2: negotiations with Iran are ongoing, it's not clear if they're 51 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,559 Speaker 2: going to succeed. What is clear is that the administration 52 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: is at pains to hammer out a deal that simultaneously 53 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 2: is longer, stronger, more inclusive than the twenty to fifteen 54 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: nuclear deal that was hammered out under President Obama. But 55 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 2: at the same time he has to do things to 56 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: make sure that our partners in the Persian Golf, are 57 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 2: partners in the Middle East more broadly, are not adversely 58 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: affected and aren't discouraged by this new diplomacy because the 59 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 2: fears of Tehran that you see in the Persian Gulf 60 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 2: run very deep, particularly after the last year and a half, 61 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 2: after they've seen what Iran's proxy network is capable of 62 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: in terms of destabilizing Israel. 63 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: We're going to talk some about the specific visits. I 64 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: thought probably the most undercovered and amazing piece of this 65 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: was his pivot to recognize Syria and the speed with 66 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: which they pulled that off. I don't think they'd laid 67 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: the groundwork for that before he went to the region. 68 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: No, I think this is very much an ongoing conversation, 69 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: and it's frankly, of rather risky play because up until 70 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: December of last year, until the fall of the outset regime, 71 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,799 Speaker 2: Ahmed al Shara, the new Syrian president, was a specially 72 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 2: designated global terrorist under US law. It was only with 73 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 2: his rise to power that he has begun to be rehabilitated, 74 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 2: and the jury, frankly, is still out on whether there's 75 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 2: a good reason to rehabilitate him. He's certainly talking a 76 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: more inclusive talk, but in terms of the policies that 77 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 2: he's implementing, in terms of his control over Syria as 78 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: a whole, I think that's very much an open question. 79 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: And so clearly the Trump administration's pivot and the relaxation, 80 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 2: the rolling back of sanctions on Syria is an enormously 81 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 2: important symbolic move. I would have liked to see a 82 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: little bit more of upfront guarantees from the Syrian that 83 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: they were willing to do the hard things that they 84 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: need in order to get reintegrated back into the international community. 85 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 2: Because now the floodgates are open, and you can see 86 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 2: over the last couple of days since the President's decision, 87 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 2: since the President's announcement, that the Europeans are relaxing sanctions, 88 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: and there's this sort of domino effect that's beginning to 89 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 2: take place. What I worry about is I worry about 90 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 2: Ahmed Alshara, given his history of Islamic radicalism, given the 91 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 2: weakness of his transitional government. I'm concerned that without getting 92 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 2: assurances from him, without putting concrete points on the board, 93 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 2: this may send the wrong signals. 94 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: Why do you think that Turkish president won and the 95 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed ben Salmon, why do you think 96 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: they were so interested in getting because apparently Trump did 97 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:48,799 Speaker 1: this in response to two of them. 98 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 2: No, I think that's right. And also the Qatari government 99 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 2: is very heavily beginning to invest, very heavily in Syria, 100 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 2: and I think there's a logic there in the sense 101 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 2: that sanctions aren't supposed to be forever, and they're supposed 102 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 2: to be able to be rolled back or changed or 103 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: relaxed over time if conditions on the ground warrant, and 104 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 2: the sanctions, in particular US sanctions were oriented towards, specifically 105 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 2: towards the Osset regime. So there's a lot of there 106 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 2: there in terms of rationale for doing it. But there's 107 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 2: also lingering concerns, lingering concerns about Ahmed al Shara's radicalism, 108 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 2: lingering concerns about the fact that given how he governed 109 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 2: when his group Hayatafrira Alsham was in charge in the 110 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 2: Syrian city of Idlib, he governed in a very absolutist, 111 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 2: draconian manner, and we're worried that this may actually begin 112 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 2: to apply to Syria as a whole right, which will 113 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 2: create sectarian tensions. And we're worried about, frankly, about which 114 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 2: partners he's going to choose, because the Iranians may be 115 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 2: down in Syria, but they're not out clearly Ahmed al Shara, 116 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 2: who is soon he has no love lost for the 117 00:06:56,640 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 2: type of Shiite sectarian Islamism political Islam that Iran is promoting, 118 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 2: but the Iranians still have a presence there. More specifically, 119 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,359 Speaker 2: the Russians still have a presence there. They still have 120 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 2: a military presence both in the port city of Tartus 121 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 2: and at the air base north of Tartus at Hamemimi. 122 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: And there's a worry that the Russians saw the overthrow 123 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 2: of ASA, their longtime partner, in December, as this really 124 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: grievous strategic blow. But what we're seeing now is that 125 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 2: the Russians are actually they may not be thriving, but 126 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 2: they're certainly surviving in Syria. They are engaging in a 127 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 2: quiet dialogue with al Shara, They're beginning to sort of 128 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 2: to husband their resources. They still have a military presence 129 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: on the ground. So I think there's a lot of 130 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 2: question marks about the future direction of Syria. And this 131 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 2: is clearly an attempt and an attempt encouraged by the 132 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 2: Saudis and by the Qataris and by the Immordis to 133 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 2: nudge Syria in the proper direction. I'm worried that we 134 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 2: might go too far, too fast. 135 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: But isn't that sort of typical of Trump? 136 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, This is why I think it's necessary to understand. 137 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: And when we look at what he did in the 138 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 2: Middle East, it's striking. I frankly think what he said 139 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 2: in the Middle East was even more striking when he 140 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: gave that speech in Saudi Arabia, and he verbally, out front, 141 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 2: vocally repudiated sort of the nation building, the human rights 142 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 2: first campaigns that predominated the Biden administration's approach to Saudi Arabia. 143 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 2: That was intended as assurance, that was intended that America's 144 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 2: engaged in America's going to moralize less, but it also 145 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 2: changed the tenor of how the United States has moved 146 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 2: around the region, at least historically, and I think there's 147 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 2: going to be ripple effects from that. They are going 148 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 2: to be felt for a long time if we're no 149 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 2: longer focused on civil society, on building societies, on human rights, 150 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 2: on enshrining values, and we're just focused on this mercantilist 151 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 2: trade policy that benefits us certainly in terms of the 152 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 2: bottom line in the near term, but I think there's 153 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 2: long term effects that may make region less hospitable for 154 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 2: American ideas and American values in the long run. 155 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: We had adopted a policy of trying to create sort 156 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: of a standard which clearly most of our allies in 157 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: the region didn't live up to. But at the same time, 158 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: I look at the Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia, who's 159 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: in a sense a mixed bag in that the CIA 160 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: has concluded that he did orchestrate, or at least to 161 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: prove the killing of the Washington Post reporter Jamal Kashoki. 162 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: On the other hand, I look at what he's doing 163 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 1: on say tourism. This is not going to be Saudi 164 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: Arabia in the sense that it was thirty years ago. 165 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 2: There's going to be too many people, no listen, absolutely, 166 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 2: and it's already not And I remember the black time 167 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 2: I was in Saudi was a few years ago, but 168 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 2: even then it was already in motion. There was already 169 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: commingling of sexes in restaurants, there was already music. And 170 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 2: I think the listeners have to understand that these things 171 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 2: are moving in Saudi Arabia at a lightning pace. And 172 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 2: they're moving at a lightning pace, frankly, not because Saudi 173 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 2: Arabia is reforming. It's because Saudi Arabia is modernizing. And 174 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: I think all of this goes back to the Saudi 175 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 2: Vision twenty thirty. And if your listeners are interested, you 176 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: can go online. You can google Vision twenty thirty and 177 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,559 Speaker 2: what you'll see is a very flashy website that lays 178 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 2: out all of the priorities, but the basic underlying premise 179 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 2: is that Saudi Arabia, the ruling House of Saud, figured 180 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 2: out several years ago that they have to pivot to 181 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 2: being a non oil or a more diversified, non oil 182 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 2: first economy. And in order to do that, they have 183 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 2: to invest in high tech, and they have to invest 184 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 2: in infrastructure, and they have to invest in all sorts 185 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 2: of things that require frankly large amounts of foreign direct investment. 186 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 2: And when foreign investors come to Saudi Arabia, they like 187 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 2: to do things like drink, and they like to have 188 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: their wives and girlfriends be able to drive, and they 189 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 2: like to shop independently, and all of this changes that 190 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 2: we see in Saudi society. They're very salutary, but they're 191 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 2: also driven by economic necessity. And where I land is 192 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 2: sort of in the middle. I am delighted to see 193 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 2: the changes in Saudi Arabian, but I also believe that 194 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 2: American engagement without articulating that we actually expect some degree 195 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 2: of governmental transparency, some degree of protections for civilians, for citizens, 196 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 2: some degree of personal freedoms leads you down a slippery slope 197 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 2: where you could end up in a few years acting 198 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 2: very much like the Chinese do in Africa, where it's 199 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 2: value free investing. It's enshrining these very repressive and frankly, 200 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 2: very sclerotic sort of regime. So I think where the 201 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 2: pendulum is swinging, and the way it usually does these 202 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 2: days in American politics, it tends to swing pretty wildly 203 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 2: from one extreme to the other. And we're going from 204 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 2: the extreme of the Biden administration, which was all lecturing, 205 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 2: no meaningful engagement, to I hope I'm wrong, but to 206 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 2: something that looks decidedly mercantile. 207 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 1: I remember in nineteen ninety one when we sent an 208 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: expeditionary force because Saddam had seized Kuwait. We had a 209 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: big argument with the Saudis about American women driving military trucks. 210 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: We won the argument. We just said flatly, this is 211 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: how we're going to do it. But at the time 212 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: it was a shocking revolutionary behavior. And I think about 213 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: the Saudi Arabia that existed in nineteen ninety and the 214 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia now. It seems to me there is a 215 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: certain part of modernity which inherently has to open a 216 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 1: country up. I mean the Chinese tried to counter that 217 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: with a toutilitarian structure, but overall, it's very hard to 218 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: be part of the modern commercial world and not have 219 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: all sorts of things leaking into your society that are uncontrollable. 220 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 2: No, I think that's exactly right. And there's also the 221 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: rhythm of time that kicks in here also. I mean, 222 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: all these changes that are happening in Saudi society, you 223 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 2: can imagine them getting rolled back now, but it's harder 224 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 2: to imagine than when they were first instituted a couple 225 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 2: of years ago, and ten years from now it's going 226 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 2: to be harder still. They get locked in over time. 227 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 2: So this is absolutely a salutary trajectory. This is absolutely 228 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 2: the trajectory that we want. But it's okay for us 229 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 2: to be able to say this is good. We like this, 230 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 2: we like this greater openness. And by the way, I 231 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 2: read the President's billions of dollars of deals with the Saudis, 232 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 2: you know, the one trillion dollar agreement with the Kataris 233 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 2: as a very overt signal that America is here, America 234 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 2: is not going anywhere. There's no choices about pivots to Asia. 235 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: What do you think the long term significance is of 236 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: the share scale of the deals that were being made 237 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 1: this week? 238 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 2: This is clearly important from vo from a practical level 239 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 2: and from a symbolic level. Right symbolically, it's an overt 240 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 2: signal to the countries in the region that are worried 241 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 2: about the overwhelming focus on China that some speculate may 242 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 2: become the orienting frame of the Trump administration. There's certainly 243 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 2: folks here in Washington who are China firsters. And I 244 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 2: don't mean China firsters as in they prefer China. It's 245 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 2: China firsters, as in that's the pacing threat that should 246 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 2: be the dominant concern of American foreign policy. And I 247 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 2: symbolically I saw the deals as very much a repudiation 248 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 2: of that. A signal to the golf monarchy is that 249 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 2: America is there, America's engaged, the American commitment to regional 250 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 2: security is important and is well lasting. I also saw 251 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: this as in a practical sense, as this is I 252 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 2: think a very bold way to try to improve market competitiveness. 253 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 2: And the China frame does overlay all this because it's 254 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 2: it's necessary to understand that what President Trump has done 255 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 2: has been to make America competitive again in the context 256 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 2: of the involvement and investment in the golf monarchies, because 257 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 2: what we've seen over the last several years, as the 258 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: Biden administration has taken a vaccine, has really fallen into 259 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 2: this more hectoring, lecturing tone which dominated until very late 260 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 2: in President Biden's tenure. You saw billions upon billions of 261 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 2: dollars of Chinese investment in the region. The Chinese were 262 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 2: really moving in. We were trying to engage politically, they 263 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: were engaging, and they were successful in engaging economically. And 264 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 2: I see these trade deals as a practical step, a 265 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 2: way to increase America's competitiveness in the region by doing 266 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 2: these economic lash ups, by doing deals that rebound to 267 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 2: the durability of America's bonds with the region. 268 00:15:55,160 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: Trump is a profoundly transformational President Trump's now, at least 269 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: in this trip going around the planet scooping up money. 270 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: It's a totally different experience from anything we've seen, and 271 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: it fits his whole focus, which is if he can 272 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: get the United States to become once again the dominant 273 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: arsenal of democracy, then the Chinese can't compete with us 274 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: because the sheer scale of investment. One of the things 275 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: that hit me. I'm curious since you were also in Europe, 276 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: but I recently ran across a chart of the ten 277 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: largest tank forces in the world. There's not a single 278 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: European country on the chart. And in fact, if you 279 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: took all of the tanks in NATO outside the United States, 280 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: they collectively wouldn't have gotten on the chart because the 281 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 1: center of power has shifted so far out of the world. 282 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: You and I were born into same things happening here. 283 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: I mean, there is no European country that could match 284 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: any of these three countries in scale of investment. 285 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 2: That's absolutely correct, and I think your point about building 286 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: the arsenal of democracy is exactly right. I think this 287 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 2: is a great first step. I do hope that that 288 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 2: latter part is not silent right, that these countries, as 289 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 2: robust as their economies are, understand that the United States 290 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: benefits in the strategic partnership with the United States. Benefits 291 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 2: not just from the trade deals, but from them aligning 292 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 2: with us not on every value, but on some values, 293 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 2: and aligning with us in terms of our vision for 294 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 2: regional security. And that's why I made the point about 295 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 2: this being about assurance. Also because simultaneously the President is 296 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 2: making a very risky, high stakes play to try to 297 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,719 Speaker 2: hammer out some sort of deal with the Iranian regime. 298 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 2: It's not clear that this deal is going to succeed. 299 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 2: It's not clear that the Iranians are going to come 300 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 2: to terms. What is clear, though, is that Iran is 301 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 2: in its weakest point, both economically and politically in decades. 302 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 2: The Iranian ring of fire that they tried to build 303 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 2: around Israel in preceding years has effectively been taken apart, 304 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 2: been picked apart by the Israeli defense forces. It's not 305 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 2: fully disaggregated, but the wartime collapse of Hisbada in Lebanon, 306 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 2: the fall of the Asad regime in Damascus, the Huthis 307 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 2: remain a problem. But I think it's fair to say 308 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 2: that Israel's in a much better strategic position now than 309 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: they were a year ago. The Iranian at home, eighty 310 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 2: percent of Iranians now right according to a recent poll, 311 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 2: fundamentally reject the structure of the Islamic Republic and want 312 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 2: a different form of government. Right. This is murder for 313 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 2: an ideological regime and so what you have is you 314 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 2: have a regime in Tehran that's very incentivized to do 315 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,439 Speaker 2: a deal. The secret sauce, though, as they say, is 316 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 2: to do a deal that benefits America and really hobbles 317 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 2: the Iranian threat potential over time. And here what the 318 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 2: President talked about when he got us out of the 319 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 2: Obama era jcpoa joined Comprehensive Plan of Action back in 320 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: May of twenty eighteen. It still attaches right. His objections 321 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 2: were threefold. The deal was too short. All of its 322 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 2: provisions expired in a decade, some of them substantially before then. 323 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 2: It was too generous. There's too much sanctions relief that 324 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 2: was given to the Iranian regime. And it was too narrow. 325 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 2: It didn't cover things like ballistic missiles and proxies and 326 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,119 Speaker 2: things like that. So the president's idea in his first 327 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 2: term was to do a deal that was more comprehensive, 328 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 2: more lasting, more sweeping, and more restrictive. We still have 329 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 2: those objectives. I think the problem that we have now 330 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,959 Speaker 2: is we are half a decade further in time from 331 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 2: when we were able to really effectuate change on this. 332 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 2: The Iranian nuclear program is more mature, and the Iranians 333 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 2: have really gotten comfortable with having an indigenous uranium enrichment capability, 334 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 2: a capability to enrich fissile material at home. Here's the problem. 335 00:19:55,359 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 2: We may hammer out a deal with Iran that limits 336 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 2: their nuclear potential, that limits the range of their ballistic missiles, 337 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 2: that really ramps up international inspections. But if we seed 338 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 2: the case on them having a domestic enrichment capability, it 339 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 2: sets the table in a different way for everybody who's 340 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,199 Speaker 2: coming down the pike. Because the Saudis right where the 341 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 2: President just was, the Saudis also want a nuclear program. 342 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 2: Why would the Saudis ask for anything less or expect 343 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 2: to receive anything less than the Iranians get. So if 344 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 2: we enshrine, if we create a framework where Iran's domestic 345 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 2: uranium and richmond capability is enriched, strengthened, or entrined in 346 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 2: some way, then that becomes the floor of any future 347 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 2: negotiations that we have with countries in the region who 348 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 2: also want this capability. And I think that puts us 349 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 2: on a really slippery slope. So it's a long way 350 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 2: of saying the President is engaged in really high stakes negotiation. 351 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 2: And so that's the frame that's the backdrop for everything 352 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 2: that he was doing in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates 353 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 2: in Guitar. The goal here is, I think very much, 354 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 2: to reassure allies, because those allies, just like I am 355 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 2: here in Washington, those allies and their respective capitals are 356 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 2: watching those negotiations close. 357 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: I think in the last two weeks, the Iranian resistance 358 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: identified a new nuclear facility that we didn't even know existed, 359 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: which just strikes me that when you're dealing with a dictatorship, 360 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,239 Speaker 1: there's a whole question here of whether or not you 361 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: can ever have an inspection regime that is tight enough 362 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: and serious enough that it actually cripples them. 363 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 2: I think you answered the question already, right. You can't. 364 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 2: By the way, this is precisely why when you talk 365 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 2: to Israeli officials, I was just an israel I was 366 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 2: talking to a whole range of officials about the Iranian 367 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: nuclear program. As you can imagine, they're very concerned, but 368 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 2: they never talk about eliminating the Iranian nuclear program because 369 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 2: they make precisely this point. Right, authoritarian regime, it has 370 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 2: very tight controls on information. We simply don't know where 371 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 2: everything is, and this is a vexing challenge if somebody's 372 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 2: thinking about military action against Iran like these Raelis are now. 373 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 2: But it's also a vexing challenge if we're trying to 374 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 2: camer out some sort of monitoring framework, because the Iranian 375 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 2: nuclear program is built for stealth, it's built for clandestine development, 376 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 2: and we don't know where everything is well. 377 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,239 Speaker 1: I mean, I remember getting briefed in two thousand and 378 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 1: one on the scale of their underground program. Now they've 379 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 1: had a quarter century to expand all this. On the 380 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: other hand, I think Trump is in a real dilemma 381 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 1: because we probably can do very substantial damage between the 382 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 1: US and Israeli forces. If we decide to do that. 383 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: We wouldn't try to occupy Iran, we just take out 384 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: a lot of facilities. But at the same time, I 385 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: think the President would like to not do that, and 386 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: I'm not sure he can get to an agreement that's real, 387 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: and I worry that they will gradually talk themselves into 388 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 1: accepting a paper agreement that's not real. 389 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right. The Iranian negotiating strategy, I 390 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 2: think has been very consistent over time, and you sort 391 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 2: of dial the clock back and look at the way 392 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 2: they negotiated the twenty fifteen JCPOA, and it's very clear 393 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 2: the goal was for them to draw out the negotiations 394 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 2: to buy time to add permanence to their nuclear effort, 395 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,719 Speaker 2: and I think that's their plan. Now they're more constrained 396 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 2: in terms of their political stability, in terms of their 397 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 2: economic solvency, and that's something that we can play with, 398 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 2: but fundamentally, no agreement is going to alter this regime's 399 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 2: will to nuclear power. We're not going to do it. 400 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 2: They see nuclear possession as an element of regional hegemony, 401 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 2: but frankly more importantly as an element of regime stability. 402 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 2: Because if you look at the demographics of the Islamic Republic, right, 403 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 2: it's eighty eight and a half million people. Two thirds 404 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 2: of the population is thirty four I think thirty six 405 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 2: now or younger, and the leadership is a generation and 406 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 2: a half older than that, right, decades older than that. 407 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 2: So this is a regime that's rapidly approaching. In fact, 408 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 2: some would say it has already approached and passed. It's 409 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 2: sell by date. The people are young, the people are 410 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 2: increasingly Western orient that they're wired. They may not know 411 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 2: exactly what structure of government they want, but they know 412 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 2: what they don't want. They really don't like this regime 413 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 2: because they've been an economic failure to thrive. There's a 414 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 2: real sense that the regime, because of its ideological restrictions, 415 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 2: is holding them back from interacting in a meaningful way 416 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 2: with the world. The regime sees the nuclear program as 417 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 2: an insurance policy for precisely this eventuality. You have an 418 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 2: increasingly unpopular, aging regime, an arrestive and increasingly westward looking population. 419 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,200 Speaker 2: The thing that sort of levels the playing field for 420 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 2: the Ayatolas is if they have a capability that scares 421 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 2: the West enough that they can repress their own domestic 422 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 2: population without incurrent any sort of international center or any 423 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 2: meaningful threat of military action. That's the play, that's the 424 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 2: long term strategic play here. And I remember the famous 425 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 2: Israeli political scientist once talked two decades ago, right when 426 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 2: you were getting those briefings, So the Israelis were talking 427 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 2: about the fact that two trains were leaving the station, 428 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 2: the Iran regime change train, and I don't mean regime 429 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 2: changes then somebody would do it. I mean the fundamental 430 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:29,400 Speaker 2: political transformation train and the Iranian nuclear train. We're leaving 431 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 2: the station at basically the same time, and if the latter, 432 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 2: if the nuclear train gets to the station first, the 433 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 2: first one never gets there right. And I think that formula, 434 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 2: frankly is still very much in effect. And so for 435 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,919 Speaker 2: the Trump administration, this is a huge problem. It's a 436 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 2: huge problem because the long play in Iran is about 437 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 2: the Iranian people. It's about the long term evolution of 438 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 2: the regime, and so we don't want to do anything 439 00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 2: that creates a situation where this regime, which is a 440 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 2: threat during international security, as a threat to American allies. 441 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,479 Speaker 2: As the President heard himself in his touring the Gulf, 442 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 2: it's a predatory regime and there's no love lost in 443 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 2: the Gulf. We have to make sure that any deal 444 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 2: that we do doesn't empower them. 445 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: Would it be rational for the United States to adopt 446 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: a strategy of regime change. 447 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 2: I think it's rational from a long term perspective. I 448 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 2: think the long game in the run is always about 449 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,720 Speaker 2: the population. It's always been about the population. Whether or 450 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 2: not it's politically feasible to do that is a completely 451 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 2: different story. The American people are sick of intervention. The 452 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 2: American people are sick of these sort of experiments in 453 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 2: regime change, I don't think there's the appetite to do that, 454 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 2: and I think, to his great credit, I think the 455 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 2: President understands that. And I think the President understands that 456 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 2: despite the fact that there's a vibrant Iranian opposition, despite 457 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 2: the fact that eighty percent of the Iranian people now 458 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 2: repudiate the regime, there's really no appetite here at home 459 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 2: to back them in a meaningful way. 460 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,920 Speaker 1: Well, if you go back and look during the collapsing 461 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: phase of the Soviet Empire, places like Romania just suddenly collapsed. 462 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 2: Correct, And by the way, that's another I think chasening moment. 463 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 2: As we learned from Iraq and as we learned most 464 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 2: recently from Syria, revolutions are actually very hard to predict. 465 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 2: We're not good at this in historical context, and so 466 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 2: I think humility is in order. Right. It's not up 467 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 2: to us to change the regime of Iran. It's up 468 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 2: to us, though, to make sure that we don't do 469 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 2: things that strengthen a very bad situation. And I think 470 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 2: that's the proper frame to think about the negotiations. 471 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: The other thing I thought that was striking on this 472 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: trip was the degree to which they ignored Israel, didn't 473 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 1: visit Israel, they didn't consult with them. I don't think 474 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: about Syria, which is clearly a direct Israeli concern. There 475 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 1: is no rational solution to Hamas short of destroying it, 476 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,440 Speaker 1: and destroying it is a very hard problem. 477 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: No, I think that's right. And also, I mean, by 478 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 2: the way this, I would say two levels. I think 479 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 2: the US Israeli relationship is strong. It remains strong. As 480 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 2: you know much better than I. The well spring of 481 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 2: support for Israel may change as a result of different presidencies, 482 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 2: but it remains very strong and very consistent overtime in Congress. 483 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:37,040 Speaker 2: Congress is the centerpiece of the relationship. So I don't 484 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 2: have a lot of concern about this divergence. What I 485 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 2: do see, though, that's concerning, is that familiarity breeds contempt, 486 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 2: and this proximity between Washington and Jerusalem that we've seen 487 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 2: in the past, that we saw in the first Rump term, 488 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 2: I think is leading some folks in the administration to 489 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 2: take the israelis for granted, to say, listen, Israel doesn't 490 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 2: have any other choices. Israel's aligned with US anyway. And 491 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 2: when I was talking to Israeli officials. My advice to 492 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 2: them was that you have to put yourself in the 493 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 2: mindset of the president, and you have to think about 494 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 2: not so much about the historical glue that has held 495 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 2: the countries together, but what Israel has that Trump can leverage, 496 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 2: that Trump can really lean into Israel is a dramatically 497 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 2: dynamic innovation economy. Right. This is the reason why the 498 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 2: Chinese are so interested in Israel. Frankly, it's high tech, 499 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 2: it's AI, it's cyber, it's telecom, it's all these different things. 500 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 2: And by the way, one of the things that I 501 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 2: mentioned that raised a couple of eyebrows in my meetings 502 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 2: was Israel's also a leader in missile defense. Now, a 503 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 2: lot of that missile defense has been developed with American money, 504 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 2: that's absolutely true, but Israel is now blazing the trail 505 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 2: on things like directed energy defense. And the Trump administration 506 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 2: just passed an executive order about a Golden Dome for America, 507 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 2: resetting the way we think about homeland defense, which involves 508 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 2: multiple layers and involves something you and I have been 509 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 2: talking about for literally decades, this multi layer defense system, 510 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 2: not just the guard against road state threats, but to 511 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 2: guard against all manner of threats. Israel has a role 512 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 2: to play in this, It has a contribution to make 513 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 2: in this, and that the sooner the Israelis figure this out, frankly, 514 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 2: the better their bargaining power is going to be. 515 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 1: That's a brilliant point. There's also a certain danger that 516 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: Trump really operates off of an intuitive sense of who 517 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 1: his partners are. And I'm not sure that Netnia, who 518 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: has helped himself in their most recent meetings, Trump just 519 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 1: sends to sort of check you off and shift to 520 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: the next interesting topic. And I think that that's part 521 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 1: right now, he's closer to the Saudi crown Prince than 522 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: he is to the Israeli Prime Minister psychologically. 523 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 2: Listen, I think that's absolutely right. And I think what 524 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 2: was striking to me when I was in Israel, and 525 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 2: you know, I go to Israel every year. When I 526 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 2: was there last summer, objectively, strategic situation was much worse. 527 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 2: They hadn't yet done the Northern Front against his Balla, 528 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 2: they hadn't yet done that second raid that popped the 529 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 2: lid off of the Iranian air defense architecture. Right, they 530 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 2: were in trouble, but the morale was much better. Fast 531 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 2: forward to last week, and in all the meetings, what 532 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 2: I heard was we're stuck in Gaza, right, there is 533 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 2: no endgame, and intuitively the Israeli people see this, and 534 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 2: intuitively the president understands this. There is no play. I 535 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 2: think Ntaniahu has really harmed himself by failing by simply 536 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 2: saying what he doesn't want to see happen in Gaza, 537 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 2: rather than articulating a vision for how to move forward. 538 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 2: Because the President frankly did him a huge favor when 539 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 2: he talked about I know it's sort of been bandied about, 540 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,880 Speaker 2: and you know it's been ridiculed as Gaza Lago, but 541 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 2: in reality it was a very important point because the 542 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 2: President deserves credit for injecting some fresh thinking into a 543 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 2: conversation that's gotten positively sclerotic. I'm not sure the President's 544 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 2: plans go work, but it's clear that he changed the 545 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,959 Speaker 2: conversation and that's important, and it was up to the 546 00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 2: regional leaders and it was up to the Israelis to 547 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 2: run with that change of conversation to articulate a new plan, 548 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 2: and they haven't done that. 549 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: People underestimate how much Trump is a developer, and so 550 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,520 Speaker 1: every time I encounter something, he's wondering, can we do 551 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 1: a development here? The development may be military, maybe literally 552 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 1: a development. We were kidding at one point about that 553 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 1: beautiful riviera which would have a Trump Beach Hotel, two 554 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 1: eighteen hole Trump courses in Gaza. But his consistent instinct 555 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 1: is to pivot from a problem to an opportunity. 556 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 2: I think that's absolutely right, and I think it's the 557 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 2: right instinct. Well for my money, what I would say 558 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 2: is this, there is no such thing as a day 559 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 2: after in Gaza. Day after is an American concept. We 560 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 2: Americans are impatient. We want a fix immediately. And you 561 00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 2: saw this, by the way, throughout the conversations that the 562 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 2: administration had with the Israelis. Okay, almost as soon as 563 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,320 Speaker 2: the war starts, you know, what's your plan for redevelopment? Right? 564 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 2: This was fundamentally premature. I think what we need to 565 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 2: think about is a generation after in Gaza. Cycle forward, 566 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 2: a full generation. Right. Let's assume that this conflict drags 567 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 2: on for a little bit of time. Let's assume that 568 00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:24,320 Speaker 2: coreheads eventually prevail and we do a build in Gaza 569 00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 2: a generation from now. What do we want Gaza to 570 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 2: look like? I think it looks like three things. First 571 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 2: of all, security, right, because it's very clear that the 572 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 2: security paradigm that prevailed on October sixth between Israel and 573 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 2: the Palestinians turned out to be insufficient. So the Israelis 574 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 2: need greater security guarantees. But they have a problem, right 575 00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 2: because there's a manpower issue. Right now, Israel is burning 576 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 2: through its reserves. It's having a real effect on the 577 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 2: country's economy right, inflation is rising. The idea of having 578 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 2: a large scale force that really just does policing in 579 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 2: martial law in the Gaza strip over the long term, 580 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 2: that's not in the cards, right, That's not in the 581 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 2: cards for Israel. It's not in the capabilities for Israel. 582 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 2: So somebody has to step in and do a bolstered security. 583 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,839 Speaker 2: So that's the first thing. The second thing is economic reconstruction. Right. 584 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 2: The model in my head when I think about Gaza 585 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 2: a generation from now is a place like Tangier in Morocco, right, 586 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:24,840 Speaker 2: a port with container traffic that brings in tourism, it 587 00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 2: brings an investment, It allows for precisely that type of 588 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 2: development that President Trump is talking about. But in order 589 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,239 Speaker 2: for that to happen, you have to attract investment, not 590 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,760 Speaker 2: just from the United States, you have to attract investment 591 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,479 Speaker 2: from all over the Middle East, right, and that leads 592 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 2: you to that third point, which is deradicalization. And that's 593 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 2: where Hamas comes in. Because if you have an international 594 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 2: hub like that, if you have what is basically a 595 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 2: service economy like that, your prerequisit has to be that 596 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 2: the government that administers it is secular and is pragmatic. 597 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 2: It isn't ruled by ideologues that will blow up the 598 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,239 Speaker 2: whole Right, and just my personal view, I think the 599 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,799 Speaker 2: Prime Minister missed a huge opportunity last summer when he 600 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,240 Speaker 2: came and he spoke before the Joint Session of Congress 601 00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 2: to lay out something like this, to say something like, look, 602 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,959 Speaker 2: I don't have all the answers. My people are hurting, 603 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 2: but I do know that everyone must end and here's 604 00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 2: my vision. And if he articulated something in this neighborhood 605 00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 2: and threw the ball in the court of the administration 606 00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,240 Speaker 2: and through the ball in the court of the Gulf, 607 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 2: I think would be in a very different place right now. 608 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 1: The new president of El Salvador took over one of 609 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,879 Speaker 1: the most dangerous countries in the world, and within one 610 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 1: year had made it the safest country in the Western hemisphere. 611 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,120 Speaker 1: And he did it basically by saying, if I have 612 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 1: any reason to believe that you're a member of a gang, 613 00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 1: you're going to be locked up for a very long time, 614 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,160 Speaker 1: and just physically took him off the street. He in 615 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 1: fact has created a very safe country where people can 616 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 1: be tourists and have no sense of fear. And you 617 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: almost have to take that approach to the Gaza population 618 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 1: to figure out, how are we going to get rid 619 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 1: of the people who are willing to use violence, because 620 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 1: as long as they're there, you're not going to ever 621 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 1: get to stability. 622 00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 2: I think that's right sometimes to my point about getting 623 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,920 Speaker 2: buy in from the Gulf, getting buy in from international partners. 624 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 2: Sometimes to make a problem smaller, you have to make 625 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 2: it bigger. It can't just be the Israelis who say 626 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 2: that Kamas is unacceptable. We have to get rid of them. 627 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:27,759 Speaker 2: You have to have unequivocal statements and more importantly, unequivocal 628 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 2: action from the rest of the muzzle world to demonstrate 629 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,719 Speaker 2: that Hamas is a dead end organization. It's a dead 630 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 2: end ideology. But in order to do that, you have 631 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 2: to foster viable alternatives. And that's not something for Israel 632 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 2: to do. That's something that really requires authentic air voices 633 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 2: to say. The vision for the Palestinians is not Hamas, 634 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,920 Speaker 2: it's not the muscle brother something else. And frankly, that 635 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 2: dog isn't barking right. 636 00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:59,760 Speaker 1: You want to plan on that sort of prosperity, safety 637 00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 1: and self government for the Palestinian people, and then how 638 00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,919 Speaker 1: do you work back from that vision to what would 639 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 1: actually make that what would it be like ten years 640 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 1: from now if that vision had been effectively implemented, and 641 00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,279 Speaker 1: then you figure out what the steps are. 642 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,880 Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, and sadly, I'm just not 643 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,280 Speaker 2: seeing a lot of that work being done in government. 644 00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,760 Speaker 2: I teach a graduate class on depending on the semester, 645 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 2: on different things. This semester I was doing Middle East 646 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 2: security and that was literally the class project that I 647 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 2: assigned to my students to get together in groups and 648 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 2: come up with a generation after plan for Gassa. And frankly, 649 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,520 Speaker 2: I think the technocrats at the State Department could learn 650 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,160 Speaker 2: a thing and do by reading their presentations. 651 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 1: You're a fascinating guy. You have an enormous amount of 652 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,200 Speaker 1: knowledge I want to thank you for joining me and 653 00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,880 Speaker 1: our listeners can find out more about the work you 654 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,560 Speaker 1: do at the American Foreign Policy Council by visiting your 655 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,319 Speaker 1: website at AFPC dot org. 656 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,680 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me. It's always a pleasure. 657 00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:59,920 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Delon Berman. You can get 658 00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:02,960 Speaker 1: a link to the American Foreign Policy Council's website on 659 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,480 Speaker 1: our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtworld is produced 660 00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,680 Speaker 1: by Gingers Street sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is 661 00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 1: Guarnsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for 662 00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:19,279 Speaker 1: the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to 663 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,480 Speaker 1: the team at Ginglishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 664 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,279 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate 665 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so 666 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners 667 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,800 Speaker 1: of Newtsworld consign up for my three free weekly columns 668 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:39,240 Speaker 1: at Gingerstree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Neute Gingrich. 669 00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:40,400 Speaker 2: This is Newtsworld.