1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: The confidence vote in France ends with no confidence. Welcome 7 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: to the Monday edition of Balance of Power as French 8 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 2: Prime Minister Francois be Roux faces now what appears to 9 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 2: be the end of his political career only nine months 10 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 2: after becoming Prime minister. This may sound familiar. I'm Joe 11 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: Matthew alongside Credi Gupta in Washington with a redhead on 12 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: the terminal Creedy. Four prime ministers in the last twenty 13 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: months apparently not enough for France. 14 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 3: It keeps coming right back to the same issue, which 15 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 3: we're no stranger too right here in the US, which 16 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 3: is what do you do with the budget? What do 17 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 3: you do with the ballooning deficit? And the French have 18 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 3: it even tougher. They have a lot of things like 19 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 3: pension reform and holidays they have to work there. 20 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, austerity is the word of the day. Here. 21 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 2: It's just remarkable how quickly this went once again, and 22 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 2: how many times this has happened. Emmanuel Macron now would 23 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 2: I guess appoint another prime minister, presumably from his central 24 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:20,199 Speaker 2: party block. 25 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 4: But we'll find out, I guess eminently. 26 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 5: Here. 27 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:23,199 Speaker 6: It's really tricky. 28 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 3: I mean, the French Parliament is quite literally divided into thirds, 29 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 3: so to find any sort of majority, especially when you 30 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 3: have the thread of Marine La Penn and the far 31 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: right right on their doorstep, it's a really tricky one. 32 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, So how does this unfold over the coming hours? 33 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 2: We just literally got this vote the redhead rolled about 34 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 2: thirty seconds ago, and a series of events will now. 35 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 3: Unfold absolutely, And let's not even forget about this bond 36 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 3: market that is really reacting to this. But there's there's 37 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 3: a question here of this we're doing. We're coming through 38 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 3: this just again. 39 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 6: Again. It's a very similar feeling that we have right here. 40 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 3: In the States, which is, oh, look it's another shutdown, 41 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 3: it's another budget negotiation. 42 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 6: The French feel the same way. 43 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 2: And conversations about debt and deficits austerity. Do you accomplished 44 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: this by cutting budgets or raising taxes, which is really 45 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: a very big question that they're trying to answer in 46 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 2: France and one that we're struggling with here in the 47 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 2: United States, isn't it? 48 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 3: And we should mention that France is one of the 49 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 3: highly taxed countries in all of Europe. 50 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 6: They're trying to push for investment. 51 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 3: They're trying to push for AI Menea and macconn, really 52 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 3: trying to make it a hub for investment. Pull money 53 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 3: away from London, pull money away from Germany. You can't 54 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 3: do it if you're tasted over forty percent. 55 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 2: Well, this is going to be really interesting over the 56 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: next hour. We've got some important voices lined up for you, 57 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 2: beginning with Oliver Crook, Bloomberg's europe correspondent, who's in France 58 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 2: right now with the latest. Oliver, this just landed a 59 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 2: moment ago which the reaction and the feel on the ground. 60 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, well, listen, this is something that had been very 61 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 7: much anticipated by the French public ever since this confidence 62 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 7: vote was called a couple of weeks ago. You know, 63 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 7: it was really a foregone conclusion for many. He was 64 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 7: giving interviews all week, the Prime Minister, and they basically 65 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 7: were opening the interview saying, how does it feel to 66 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 7: be in your few last days, and that is a 67 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 7: sentiment that was validated today just now as you speak, 68 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 7: by the French Parliament that voted no confidence for the 69 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 7: fourth Prime ministe as you said, over the last two years, 70 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 7: highlighting the sort of political fragmentation, which by the way, 71 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 7: is a story in France, but is a story all 72 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 7: over Europe. 73 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 8: But really finding it's hard here in. 74 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 7: France and Fancoy by who earlier a couple hours ago 75 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 7: when he spoke, he said, listen, you guys today have 76 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 7: the power to topple this government. What you do not 77 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 7: have the power to do is ignore reality. And the 78 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 7: reality that he is referring to is a debt to 79 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 7: GDP burden that is absolutely the third highest in all 80 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 7: of Europe, the GDP to deficit which is the third 81 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 7: worst as well, almost six percent. That is almost twice 82 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 7: what it is for the average of the European nations. 83 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 7: And this is fifty one years now that France has 84 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 7: not had a balanced budget. The question is at what 85 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 7: point do the bond vigilantes take over, do they really 86 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 7: impose this austerity that he was trying to sort of 87 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 7: through reform bring into the four But as you say, 88 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 7: you know This is a French parliament that is divided 89 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 7: into three groups, and even within those main groups, you 90 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 7: have splinter cells within it. 91 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 8: And it just shows you how difficult the. 92 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 7: Path ahead is now no longer for Fonso by who, 93 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 7: but for Emiinu and Micle, the president who took that 94 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 7: gamble last June in calling the snap elections and legislation 95 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 7: and really backfired colossally, and that is the situation that 96 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 7: he needs to continue to live with. 97 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 4: Alli. 98 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 3: We've seen this movie so many times, as you said, 99 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 3: just the last two years especially. This is a manuomicron 100 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: craft called those snapper elections last summer? 101 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 6: Was it two summers ago? I can't even remember. It's 102 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 6: all a blur. 103 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 3: Now walk us through just a massive step back. What 104 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 3: is the future of a manual macron if he keeps 105 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 3: losing prime ministers? Does this threaten his reelection or his 106 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 3: succession when it comes to twenty twenty. 107 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 6: Seven, So. 108 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 8: Listen for Emanu and Michael. He really has three options here. 109 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 7: The first, and this is probably the most likely, is 110 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 7: he's going to have to point another prime minister and 111 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 7: just kind of keep rolling with this really inconvenient parliamentary 112 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 7: setup that he's got Where is he. 113 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 8: Going to choose it from. Is it going to be 114 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 8: from the center. This is what he's been trying to do. 115 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 7: He's been trying to push center and sort of right 116 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 7: leaning prime ministers. Is he going to have to go 117 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 7: to either a cohabitation, say with the Socialists in order 118 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 7: to woo the left or maybe someone that's a former 119 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:53,679 Speaker 7: Socialist that has going to have gone to the center. 120 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 8: That could be a path forward. 121 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 7: The other is, of course what we've heard from a 122 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 7: number of people in that chamber today, calling for another 123 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 7: legis of election. But if you look at a lot 124 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,119 Speaker 7: of the polls, that is going to basically erode Macon's 125 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 7: already sort of diminished role within the Parliament and also 126 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 7: basically not really changed the sort of political physics that 127 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 7: we've got here with those three major blocks, and of 128 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 7: course the last would be resignation. This is very very unlikely. 129 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 7: Manyud Macon has pushed back against this. He's going to 130 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 7: stay president till twenty seven. That is his intention at 131 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 7: very least. But again it is getting louder and louder, 132 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 7: and you're getting more and more sort of objections from 133 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 7: that chamber, and you know, Marie Le Penn who now 134 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 7: is the biggest party for the first time ever, a 135 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 7: much larger protagonist within French politics. 136 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 2: Fascinating the vote, by the way, we're talking about one 137 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 2: ninety four voted for BEIRU, three hundred and sixty four 138 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 2: voted against Oliver. Just looking at the reaction in the 139 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 2: euro which is basically no reaction, speaks to the fact 140 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: that this was expected or something else. 141 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that there's a lot of this has 142 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 7: been priced in. Again, we're sort of far, We're some 143 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 7: distance away from the sort of red alarm bells ringing 144 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 7: across the sort of market complex. But we've got another 145 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 7: rating from Fitch that comes out on Friday for France. 146 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 7: It's expected to be downgraded. I mean, as you know, 147 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 7: with these sort of financial crises that sort of develop 148 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 7: at the national level, it's never sort of an instigating event. 149 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 8: It's more art than science. 150 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 7: And when you look at the sort of spreads that 151 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 7: we've seen between Germany and France, I think the thing 152 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 7: to really look much closer to is a spread between 153 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 7: Italy and France on the ten year benchmark yield. You 154 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 7: look at that that has come down to five basis points. 155 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 7: It's only ever crossed below five basis points one time 156 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 7: since the sort of turn of the century, and that 157 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 7: just shows you where investors currently are pricing risk for France. 158 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 7: And again, as fans Woi Baio who said earlier today, 159 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 7: this is not just about politics. This is about the 160 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 7: future of France remaining a sort of a relevant force 161 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 7: on the global stage. He says, you can be brought 162 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 7: into submission by foreign militaries or by creditors, and that 163 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 7: is the main concern for many of the French here Blueberg. 164 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 2: You're a correspondent, Oliver Crook, live in Paris. Oliver, thank 165 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 2: you so much for the snap reporting in this case 166 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 2: no confidence in the prime minister. And we're lucky to 167 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 2: have Catherine Klepp. You're back with us today. She was 168 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 2: here nine months ago when he got the job, and 169 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 2: back today as Associate Professor of French and francophon Studies 170 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 2: International Affairs at George Washington University. Professor, welcome back to Bloomberg, 171 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 2: TV and Radio. Four prime ministers in twenty months. What 172 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 2: would be different about a fifth? 173 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 9: That is I think the you know, the question everyone's asking, 174 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 9: and you know, I think the biggest question, as I 175 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 9: heard from the previous correspondence here is you know, which. 176 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 10: Party can one even recruit from. You know, we're hearing from. 177 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 9: Marine La Penn, who's saying it's an obligation to dissolve 178 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 9: the parliament. 179 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 10: So of course she has her position. 180 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 9: I've been reading that, you know, the prime the party 181 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 9: leader for the Socialists is kind of angling for it. 182 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 9: There have been many other you know, kind of the 183 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 9: further left is saying that they will automatically vote, you know, 184 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 9: sent to censure the next prime minister. 185 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 10: So I mean, it's it's an open question. And yeah, 186 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 10: I wish, I wish. 187 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 9: I could read some tea leaves here, but I fear 188 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 9: that we're going to be dealing with more of the same, professor. 189 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 3: In every iteration of this, there's always the question of 190 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 3: the threat of the far right. Marine La Penn on 191 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: ice until she has some decision making, some guidance from 192 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 3: the appeals Court about a twenty twenty seven run, not 193 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 3: enough confidence in Jordan Bardella. Is the National Rally still 194 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 3: a threat the way it was when Michelle Barnier was ousted. 195 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 9: You know, I think that's been the most kind of 196 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 9: interesting point of this moment, to see that Marine La 197 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 9: Penn has shifted her discourse a little bit away from 198 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 9: calling on macon to you know, resign, because it's not 199 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 9: in her interest for maconn to resign right now because 200 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 9: then she couldn't run. 201 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 10: So, you know, she's leaving it much more in a 202 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 10: parliamentary domain. 203 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,559 Speaker 9: I think she's still very much focusing on, you know, 204 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 9: now that we know the trial, the appeals trial will 205 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 9: be in January of twenty six. You know, she's looking 206 00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 9: at a longer term game here being from kind of 207 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 9: man on the street interviews of National Front or National 208 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 9: Rally voters that they do want a new election, but 209 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 9: that you know, now Marine La Penn has to balance 210 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 9: you know, some of the more kind of populist voters 211 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 9: who want to disrupt the system with the more stable, 212 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 9: market focused, you know, business community that has been less 213 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 9: excited about her candidacy. And so, you know, does she 214 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 9: tilt the cart now in order to you know, impose 215 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 9: her party or does she hold her cards closer for 216 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,599 Speaker 9: a longer, you know, a longer trajectory. It looks like 217 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 9: that's where she's leaning right now because it plays in 218 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,959 Speaker 9: her interest. But it's true that there is a you know, 219 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 9: sort of ground swell from a certain fraction of society 220 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 9: looking for change. It may have come up a little earlier, 221 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 9: but there's supposed to be a massive day of rallies 222 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 9: on Wednesday that was planned before this vote. So there's 223 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 9: this block Everything movement announced. They're calling for tractors, you know, 224 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 9: to block the roads, and it's throughout France, and so 225 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 9: you know, it's like, how is that going to play in. 226 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 9: Do we have a new yellow vest movement? Is that 227 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 9: going to mobilize or you know, kind of detract attention 228 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 9: from this? 229 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 10: I don't know. 230 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 2: Interesting, Well, when we consider what's about to happen and 231 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 2: your pointing to Wednesday, which I'm very curious to see 232 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 2: how this all plays out, Beairru's obsession with cutting debt 233 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: is what got us to this point? What would be 234 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 2: the winning message for a successful prime minister? 235 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 10: That's I mean, I think that's the question that you know, 236 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 10: I wish I had the answer. 237 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 9: Again, it sounds like I'm hearing a lot of criticism 238 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 9: on Macron for his tax cuts to the wealthy while 239 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:46,359 Speaker 9: also then proposing cuts to social services. 240 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 10: So it sounds, you know like a lot of the 241 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 10: debate is still going back to Macron in a way. 242 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 10: That the Prime Minister may not have as much control over. 243 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 9: But in terms of you know, like where does that 244 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 9: leave us for the future, the Prime Minister will need 245 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 9: to look at, you know, what does the budget do with. 246 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 10: You know, defense spending. 247 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 9: That's been a big topic, you know, that impacts the 248 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,439 Speaker 9: Franco American relationship. He needs to figure out, you know, 249 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 9: how do we balance social security reimbursements and retirement ages. 250 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 10: So these are all different moving parts that have. 251 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 9: A negative impact on the budget and I think that 252 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 9: was by Rue's point from the start. One of the 253 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 9: surprising moments from his speech this morning was that he 254 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,319 Speaker 9: kind of altered the figure on France's overarching you know, 255 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 9: national debt by adding, you know, it went from three 256 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 9: point three trillion to three point four trillion. 257 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 10: So he's you know, kind of trying to play this. 258 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 9: Responsibility card, but showing that you know, this is a 259 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 9: very serious problem that no one has managed to solve, 260 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,079 Speaker 9: and you know it's going to force a lot of 261 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 9: really hard reckoning. There's been a lot of criticism that 262 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,599 Speaker 9: you know, one proposal was to cancel two holidays, you know, 263 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 9: one part of one day from Easter and then from 264 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 9: May eight. You know, is that going to be enough 265 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 9: to change France's economy? Hard to see that playing in 266 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 9: You know, that doesn't play well with anyone really. 267 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, over my dead body on the holidays, Professor Kleppinger 268 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: is going to stay with us as we add the 269 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 2: voice once again of Stephen Carroll, the host of Bloomberg 270 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 2: Daybreak Europe. Stephen is live in Paris as well, having 271 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,959 Speaker 2: just reported on this breaking story. Stephen, how is this 272 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 2: being felt by voters, by people in France? Do you 273 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 2: have to have a sense of humor to talk to 274 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 2: your neighbor today? 275 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 11: I think probably, But I mean, look, because of the situation, 276 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 11: and you mentioned that, you know, we're heading into our 277 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,319 Speaker 11: fifth prime minister now in two years. 278 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 12: This is something that people have gotten used to. 279 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 11: And everyone knew when Francois Birou was appointed to this 280 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 11: job that he didn't have any much more chance of 281 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 11: winning support than Michel Bonnier did before him. He wasn't 282 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 11: from outside of the political family that could have changed 283 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 11: the parliamentary arithmetic in France and brought in were votes 284 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 11: that might have made it easier to pass laws through parliament. 285 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 11: Opposition to him was pretty instant, and when he got 286 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 11: to his outlining of the budget, and I think the 287 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 11: kite flying around ideas like cutting two public holidays was 288 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 11: a very interesting tactic because he was putting on the 289 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 11: table and he admitted this almost immediately. He was putting 290 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 11: on the table the most controversial measures so that people 291 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 11: would debate them, and his hope was that parliamentarians would 292 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,839 Speaker 11: get involved and there would be negotiation. And he always 293 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,839 Speaker 11: said all of the measures were up for negotiation, but 294 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,559 Speaker 11: with the red line of bringing down the debt and 295 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,959 Speaker 11: the deficit. Unfortunately, the parliament is simply too fractured to 296 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 11: be able to do that. Everyone looked to their own 297 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 11: political interests rather than necessarily looking to the bigger picture 298 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 11: and trying to work with that. Everyone's acutely aware that 299 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 11: there's a presidential election coming in two years time, and 300 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 11: they're pretty much just trying to stake their positions in 301 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 11: the ground in the run up to that so that 302 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 11: they'll be sure that there won't be a centrist who 303 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,079 Speaker 11: would replace Emmanuel Macron in two years time. So a 304 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 11: lot can happen in politics, and particularly in French politics, 305 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 11: in two years. We should point out the last presidential 306 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 11: election in twenty seventeen was a big surprise as well 307 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 11: for Makron to win. 308 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 12: So nothing is all played for yet. 309 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 11: But I think for most people in France, they're mostly 310 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,719 Speaker 11: worried about the protest movements tomorrow, how they're going to 311 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 11: get to work, what services will be available, and how 312 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 11: serious the protests are going to be. 313 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 3: More drama to come when it comes to Paris. Stephen, 314 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 3: just walk us through what a crisis scenario actually looks like. 315 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 3: Because I hear you, I hear that a prime minister 316 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 3: is now gotten or removed basically from the French government. 317 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 3: But the bond markets come seventy six basis points on 318 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 3: the oat boon spread. We're looking at a euro dollar 319 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 3: at one seventeen. Everyone kind of knew this was telegraphed. 320 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: What does a crisis in France look like? 321 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 11: This is a gallic shrug from the markets. That's essentially 322 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 11: what we've gotten. And that is because it had been 323 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 11: so obvious how difficult Francois Bayeru's problem was going to 324 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 11: be because of the numbers in part element. When he 325 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 11: called this confidence vote, we pretty much knew the result 326 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 11: of it about ten minutes after he announced it, never 327 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 11: mind waiting the two weeks for all of the debate 328 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 11: and the pleading that came from Francois Bayeru before we 329 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 11: had the vote in the past few minutes, and the 330 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 11: result of that as well, markets are looking at the 331 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 11: longer game here. Franco Bairu did say in the negotiations, 332 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 11: and this was the point that was being made by 333 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 11: the Socialist Party, is that you can consolidate the budget 334 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 11: over a longer period of time. Bloomberg Economics has said 335 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 11: this as well. This is not a fiscal crisis yet. 336 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 11: The problem is as the debt servicing costs in particular 337 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 11: mount up, and the trajectory is Francois Baieru repeated, is 338 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 11: pretty steep from here on up as to how much 339 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 11: of the budget is going to be taken up by 340 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 11: simply servicing the existing debt that France has on what 341 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 11: it's projected to accumulate in the short term. There's still time, 342 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 11: you know, over a month before France has meant to 343 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 11: submit its budget to the European Commission. That's mid October. 344 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 11: It doesn't need to pass it really until the end 345 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 11: of December. And remember we got right up to that 346 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 11: deadline last year. And even if in that there was 347 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 11: no budget passed. There is no provision for I heard 348 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 11: you mention this earlier. There's no provision for a government 349 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 11: shutdown in France. You simply roll over this month's budget 350 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 11: into next year. It's not a dramatic handbrake turn for anyone. 351 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 11: Sure there will be some people who will be hit by, 352 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 11: you know, no inflation linked increases in things like benefits, 353 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 11: but it's not a dramatic change. Things don't close overnight 354 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 11: as a result of the budget crisis in France. It does, 355 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 11: of course, just push the problems down the line, and 356 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 11: that's something that bond markets definitely will be worried about. 357 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 11: And I heard Oliver refer to the writings downgrades or 358 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 11: the writings reviews that are upcoming, the first of which 359 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 11: on Friday. There's several of those to come before the 360 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 11: end of November as well, so those will also be 361 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 11: very closely watched by the markets. 362 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 2: Really interesting, let's bring Katherin Kleppinger back into the conversation. 363 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 2: Professor did Berrow have a choice here? He decided to 364 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 2: pull the trigger on this himself, right? 365 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 9: I think that is one of the most interesting aspects 366 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 9: of this moment that you know, I'm coming back here 367 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 9: in similar circumstances, but the details are actually very different. 368 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 9: Where Bonnier was kind of solicited, you know, he went 369 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:08,360 Speaker 9: through the executive orders style of budget negotiations and then 370 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 9: his government fell as a kind of punishment for that, 371 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 9: Bayru was doing something very different. He said from the start, 372 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 9: this is a problem. Debt needs to be dealt with, 373 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 9: you know, rise up to your responsibilities and do something 374 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 9: about it. And so he is going out in a 375 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 9: very different posture from some of the previous governments that 376 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 9: have fallen. I found myself thinking that it was an 377 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 9: interesting gesture that, you know, he was challenging the delegates 378 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 9: to live up to what he considered, you know what 379 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 9: responsibility as elected officials. I'm not sure what his alternatives were, 380 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 9: Although that said, I've read some behind the scenes commentaries 381 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 9: that he hasn't been as forthcoming with negotiations as, for example, 382 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 9: the Socialists were looking for. So he may claim, you know, 383 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 9: from one side that you know, I'm putting you in 384 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 9: front of your responsibilities. Work together, or I'm out. On 385 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 9: the other hand, you know, was he truly trying the 386 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 9: back room dealings of negotiating with all the different parties? 387 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 10: Hard to say. 388 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 9: It looks like he did not want to find himself 389 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 9: in the position of trying to you know, for lack 390 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 9: of a better term, heard the cats of all the 391 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 9: different parliamentary parties the way Brownier did try to do, 392 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 9: and you know, trying to please everyone meant that he 393 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 9: pleased no one. 394 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 10: So, you know, I think it's interesting. 395 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 9: I've read the idea and I've thought about the idea 396 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 9: that it is in some ways similar to the gesture 397 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 9: that Macron did in dissolving the parliament, where it's sort 398 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 9: of a poker move, that it's a surprise. Macron called 399 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 9: it throwing a bomb into the political sphere when he 400 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 9: called those snap elections. 401 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 10: Yeah, maybe it's the same thing. 402 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 2: Well, I'm just wondering when we're all going to be 403 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: back together here talking about the next confidence vote. Catherine Kleppinger, 404 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 2: Stephen Carroll, many thanks to both of you. I'm Joe 405 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 2: Matthew alongside Credie Gupta with much more to follow here 406 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 2: as we turned back to domestic politics and the conversation 407 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 2: coming up with Congressman Mark Ticano, the Democrat from California. 408 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,880 Speaker 2: Next only on Bloomberg, stay with us on balance of Power, 409 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 2: we'll have much more coming up after this. 410 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 411 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 412 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 413 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 414 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 415 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 2: We turn our attention from French politics to domestic politics 416 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 2: and a breaker on the terminal here. If you haven't 417 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 2: heard this, we got news from the Supreme Court a 418 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 2: short time ago backing the Trump administration's aggressive enforcement efforts 419 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 2: in California, in this case, specifically Los Angeles, where federal 420 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 2: immigration agents will be allowed to resume using tactics critics 421 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 2: say amount to racial profiling. In this particular case, a 422 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 2: person's apparent ethnicity cannot be the only grounds for officers 423 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 2: to have reasonable suspicion to check legal status, but can 424 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: Creedie be a relevant factor along with some of the 425 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,160 Speaker 2: others that have been identified in the Supreme Court's precedents. 426 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 2: This just now landing at the same time that this 427 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 2: administration is threatening to go into Chicago. That was the 428 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 2: latest we heard Tom Holman over the weekend said absolutely, 429 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 2: it will be this week. 430 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 6: Absolutely. 431 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 3: These are some scary, some scary headlines we should mention though, 432 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 3: this was something that the Appeals Court had put a 433 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 3: pause on when it comes to whether the immigration raids 434 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 3: on that basis are even legal. That the Supreme Court 435 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,959 Speaker 3: has basically overturned when it comes to the appeals court rule. 436 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:38,479 Speaker 4: Yeah right. 437 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: It also comes with not only the President threatening to 438 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 2: go into Chicago, but any number of different cities posting 439 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 2: on truth social over the weekend, a meme from Apocalypse 440 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,959 Speaker 2: Now where he looks like Lieutenant Colonel Kilgore, I love 441 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 2: the smell of napalm in the morning, that says, I 442 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 2: love the smell of deportations in the morning. The President, 443 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 2: by the way, was asked about the second in that 444 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 2: tweet or a post on truth in which he suggested 445 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: that we would be going to war in Chicago after 446 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 2: they renamed Department of Defense Department of War last week. 447 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 4: He reacted to that when asked here he is, we could. 448 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 13: Do the same thing in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles. 449 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 14: We did it. 450 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 4: We saved We saved Los Angeles. 451 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 12: We saved Los Angeles. 452 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 14: Dan, you know that Los Angeles was a mess. 453 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 13: If we didn't send our troops in Gavin Newskom. 454 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 14: Would have had a real problem. 455 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 12: We sent our troops. 456 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 13: As the head police officer, the top person said, we 457 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 13: could have never done this alone. We sent our troops 458 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 13: right in at the beginning, and we killed it. And 459 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 13: it was nasty, but we killed it. 460 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 2: That was the President earlier today, in fact, at an 461 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 2: event about religious freedom. It's where we start our conversation 462 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 2: with Congressman Mark Ticano. This is personal for the congressman 463 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 2: because he's from California, a Democrat in the thirty ninth 464 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,920 Speaker 2: district where much of this is resonating. Congressmen, welcome back 465 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. What's your thought on the 466 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 2: Supreme Court ruling here and what's that going to mean for. 467 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 15: LA I think it's shameful, it's disappointing. It's reminiscent of 468 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,640 Speaker 15: what my own family experienced, you know, eighty years ago, 469 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 15: when they were put behind behind barbed wire in internment 470 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 15: camps because of who they were. They were of Japanese descent, 471 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 15: many spoke a different language, and I am very troubled 472 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 15: by the majority on this Supreme Court that they would 473 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 15: allow racial profiling to be used by Ice officials. I 474 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 15: have constituents that feel compelled American citizens who are carrying 475 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 15: passports because they are concerned about being stop bysed. No 476 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 15: American citizen should have to carry a passport in their 477 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 15: own country. This is shameful. We are the land of 478 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 15: the free, home of the brave. But the Supreme Court 479 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 15: has said so otherwise. 480 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 3: Today, Congressman, we saw something similar last week in terms 481 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 3: of the immigration raids at a Hyundai plant in Georgia. 482 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 3: What message do you think that sends to foreign countries 483 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 3: that are actively looking to invest in the United States? 484 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 3: Is it safe to do so, especially in your home 485 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 3: state of California. 486 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 14: Well, this certainly puts an ominous, ominous. 487 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 15: Cloud over the good will put forward by the agreement 488 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 15: between the United States and South Korea. South Korea agreed 489 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 15: to invest a half a trillion dollars in our country. 490 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:56,159 Speaker 15: In fact, over the summer, I learned about the interest 491 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 15: in building more manufacturing plants in my strict, in addition 492 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 15: to the one that already does exist that was established recently. 493 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 15: So this is not a hypothetical or theoretical question you're 494 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 15: asking me. It really affects my own district. And you know, 495 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 15: they were rapidly standing up a battery manufacturing facility in Georgia. 496 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 15: Hyundai and I forget the other company that the partnership with, 497 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 15: but you know there's the South Koreans have really expertise 498 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 15: in battery technology and it's an incredible potential alliance between 499 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 15: the United States, Japan, and South Korea if we can 500 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 15: determine the future of a battery technology had the next 501 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 15: generation of battery technology, which the Chinese currently control, and 502 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 15: I would hate to see that jeopardize. I would hate 503 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 15: to see the half trillion dollars of investment in this 504 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 15: country jeopardized because of the ham handedness and lack of 505 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 15: coordination of ICE or with the Department of Commerce. 506 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 4: Well, that other company was LG. 507 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 2: Congressmen and our listeners and viewers should know that you 508 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 2: serve on the Education and Workforce Committee along with being 509 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 2: ranking member on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee. But from 510 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 2: your perch on Workforce, what's the message here that we're 511 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 2: sending to foreign workers? Would you recommend that they stay 512 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 2: away from projects like this in the United States? And 513 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: if that's where we are, do we have enough American 514 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 2: workers to do all of this work? Whether it's emerging 515 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 2: technologies and batteries, semiconductors, or any other technology we're trying 516 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 2: to bring back to this country. 517 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 15: Well, look, I don't know the details about what workers 518 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 15: were being contracted with by the South Korean government, but 519 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 15: I suspect, given that battery technology is, you know, on 520 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 15: the frontiers of manufacturing, that we have to do two 521 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 15: things at once. We're going to need some foreign workers 522 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 15: to help us stand up these facilities while we're also 523 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 15: ramping up the skills and knowledge of the American workforce. 524 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 14: We can do both, and I can't. 525 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 15: Imagine that the Koreans were thinking that they were going 526 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 15: to fully staff up this Georgia facility with their workers. 527 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 15: This was a new faith effort to bring an American 528 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 15: manufacturing facility, a Korean Korean investment to build a manufacturing 529 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 15: facility in the United States to employ American people. But 530 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 15: they need to bring some of their own expertise into 531 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 15: United States to be able to stand up these facilities. 532 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 15: So this sends a terrible message to the nations that 533 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,400 Speaker 15: Donald Trump claims to want to engage and to bring manufacturing. 534 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 15: By the way, manufacturing jobs in this country are down 535 00:26:58,200 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 15: significantly this year. 536 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 14: Since Donald Trump took office, so this is not. 537 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 15: A great step forward for those American manufacturing jobs to 538 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 15: be increased when we play such hardball with our economic 539 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 15: partners such as South Korea. 540 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 3: Congressman, let's talk about another subject that, of course, is 541 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 3: dominating the headlines in Washington. It's a shutdown that we 542 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 3: are about twenty two days away from, just a handful 543 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 3: of legislative days away from at the end. 544 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 12: Of the month. 545 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 3: Can you just talk to us a little bit about 546 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 3: whether or not you'd be willing to work with Republicans 547 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 3: to avert a shutdown if the idea of no recision 548 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 3: packages was on the table. 549 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 14: Well, I would love to work with them, I'm all. 550 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 14: I'm all with full intent to do that. 551 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 15: But what I see coming out of the Labor HHS 552 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 15: Appropriation Subcommittee is anything but that. It is not an 553 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 15: olive branch, it is not what they're They're proposing more 554 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 15: extreme cuts to domestic healthcare and that Labor HHS bill 555 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 15: they're cutting, They're cutting AIDS funding, they're cutting funding for prevention, 556 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 15: for prevention, we're on the cusp of defeating AIDS HIV 557 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:26,160 Speaker 15: AIDS in this country. But I don't understand why after 558 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 15: passing over a trillion dollars in cuts to Medicaid and 559 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 15: even and other cuts we're facing in December with the 560 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 15: tax credits for the healthcare policies that Americans got off 561 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 15: the exchange, Republicans are are doing even more than that. 562 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 14: So you know, if you're a low. 563 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 15: Income person, you won't be able to get if you're 564 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,440 Speaker 15: kicked off of Medicaid, you won't be able to get 565 00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 15: you know, preventative care that with maybe AIDS prevention. But 566 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 15: they're doing more to even cut that even further. This 567 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 15: is not a bipartisan conversation they're having in the House 568 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 15: Appropriations Committee. I don't see a sign from Republicans that 569 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 15: they are seriously, with good faith, wanting to work out 570 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 15: a deal by the end of this month. 571 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 2: Congressman, you just came back to town from California, where 572 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 2: the big story right now is about redistricting, beyond the 573 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 2: deployment of federal troops or some of the other things 574 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 2: that we've already had a chance to talk about. Gavin 575 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 2: Newsom is making good on his plan to follow Texas 576 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 2: rewriting its map to create five new red seats, California 577 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 2: will do its own to try to maintain the balance. 578 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 2: How many seats will you get? I know this is 579 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,719 Speaker 2: something that you're deeply involved in. And will this mean 580 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 2: the end of Republican politicians in California as we know them? 581 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 14: Oh, hardly is the case. 582 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,719 Speaker 15: I mean, what we're doing in California is called Proposition fifty, 583 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 15: the Election Rigging Response Act. It'll be in November. It 584 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 15: is a measure that is being voted on by the people. 585 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 15: It's fully transparent, and it's a suspension of our Independent 586 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 15: Registricting Commission. 587 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 14: Which, by the way, I am the product of. 588 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 15: I would not be a member of Congress today were 589 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 15: it not for the nonpartisan independent Registricting Commission. 590 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 14: That was created. 591 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 15: But look, I favor the creation of these commissions for 592 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 15: every state in the Union, not because they will favor Democrats, 593 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 15: but because we need fair representation. We don't need is 594 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 15: mid decade redistricting, which it really is tend amount to cheating. 595 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 15: And Donald Trump and the governor of Texas, Donald Trump 596 00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 15: is saying. What Donald Trump is saying is I'm too insecure. 597 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 15: My policies are so unpopular that I don't want to 598 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 15: be able to face the understand the accountability that will 599 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 15: be until in twenty twenty six, So let's rig the 600 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 15: elections so that I can I can control the House representatives. 601 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 2: Well, Congressman, we'd love to talk to you as we 602 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 2: get closer to November and that vote in California. Mark Tocano, 603 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 2: California's thirty ninth The voice from the Democratic side of 604 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 2: the aisle here on Balance of Power. 605 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on 606 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 4: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. 607 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 608 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 609 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 610 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 611 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. 612 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 10: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 613 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 2: We connect the dots between Washington and Wall Street every 614 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 2: day here on Ballance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew and 615 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 2: Washington alongside Credi Goop to Thanks for being with us 616 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 2: here on the Monday edition. Yeah it's still Monday on 617 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio with breaking news coming from France. 618 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 2: If you were with us a short time ago, you 619 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 2: heard it all happen, Credy Francois Beyroux is going to 620 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 2: have to find something else to do with his time. 621 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 4: The confidence vote ended in no confidence. 622 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 3: In the meantime, Ano mccran suddenly has a list of 623 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:13,320 Speaker 3: suitors that. 624 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 6: He now has to rifle through. 625 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 2: We have just heard from him, in fact, which is 626 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 2: something that we can add to the pile here and 627 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 2: great to have Stephen Carroll with us, the host of 628 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, with the latest from Paris. Stephen, what 629 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 2: does the president have to say and what's the shortlist 630 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 2: look like? 631 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 12: Very sure? 632 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 11: Statement from the Elise Palas saying the President takes note 633 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 11: of the vote in Parliament, he will meet Pontobireru tomorrow 634 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 11: host him out the Elize Palace to receive the resignation 635 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 11: of the entire government as the constitution now dictates, and 636 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,400 Speaker 11: that he will name a new prime minister in the 637 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 11: coming days. Now, if that sounds familiar, I would just 638 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,440 Speaker 11: went back and checked and the statement in December twenty 639 00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 11: twenty four, after Michel Varniy resigned, also said that he 640 00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 11: would name a prime minister in the coming days and 641 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 11: it took over a week the last time, so perhaps 642 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 11: we shouldn't be holding our breath too closely for when 643 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 11: that announcement will come from Emmanuel Macomb. But it is 644 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 11: now his decision to pick somebody to succeed Fansois Beroux. 645 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,760 Speaker 11: Who is it, Well, that's going to be the big question. 646 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 11: We have discussed at many times and Critie you will 647 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 11: remember very well from last December or we spent quite 648 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 11: a lot of time discussing who we thought was going 649 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 11: to be Prime Minister, and Francois Bairroux was on the list, 650 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 11: then he was got the nod last time around. This 651 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 11: time around we're back thinking about members of perhaps if 652 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 11: he picks them within his own political family. 653 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 12: General d'armannau, the current. 654 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 11: Justice Minister, said to be interested in the job, so 655 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 11: he could be someone that perhaps could be considered for 656 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 11: that as well. There's the likes of the current Finance Minister, 657 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 11: Eric Lumbach. Perhaps he might be somebody who Emmanuel Macron 658 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,440 Speaker 11: might want to pick from if he did want to 659 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 11: go outside of his own political family. The names being 660 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 11: bandied about from the left leaning side. 661 00:33:58,440 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 12: So again this whole. 662 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 11: Effort, we've talked about it before, that perhaps Emmanuel Macron 663 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,160 Speaker 11: might might try to win over some of the Socialist Party, 664 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,680 Speaker 11: the center Left Party to see if that would help 665 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 11: to boost the minority government, the minority that he has 666 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 11: working in parliament. And there we have names like former 667 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 11: Prime Minister Beran A. 668 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 12: Kaznev. 669 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 11: He's one of those as well, Francois Rebsaman, who's currently 670 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 11: the Housing minister in the government, or the Minister for 671 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 11: Urban Policy, so he's somebody that you could perhaps think 672 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,879 Speaker 11: of as well. Ultimately, there's quite a long list of names, 673 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 11: and this is one of those moments of conversations happening 674 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 11: in this city, very similar to those I'm sure that 675 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 11: you hear Washington. 676 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 15: D C. 677 00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 11: All the time, where people like the idea of putting 678 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 11: their name forward and their name being talked about in 679 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 11: the reference for the role. And I'm quite sure that 680 00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 11: Emmanuel Macron has been thinking about this because the result 681 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,239 Speaker 11: of this vote was a foregone conclusion, as we've been discussing. 682 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,719 Speaker 11: But it is only him who knows where things are 683 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 11: at this stage. 684 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 3: Stephen, I'm frantically googling what French is a A fomo 685 00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 3: is in French. Given the amount of time to you 686 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 3: and I have covered the story together, was play a 687 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,400 Speaker 3: little bit of inside baseball or whatever it is the 688 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 3: French play here, it feels like the Socialists are the 689 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 3: key player or the key piece of the coalition, thank you, 690 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,360 Speaker 3: the key cup piece of the coalition that are maybe 691 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:16,400 Speaker 3: not so. 692 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 6: Much so supportive of Emanuel Macron this time around. 693 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,400 Speaker 3: When we saw Michelle Barney's a vote of no confidence 694 00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 3: last December, they were the ones that were the swing vote. 695 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 3: Where did the Socialists stand and being kind of the 696 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,240 Speaker 3: make or break player for Manuel Macron. 697 00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:32,800 Speaker 11: Well, look, the leader of the Socialist Party in the 698 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,600 Speaker 11: Parliament was one of the first to speak after the 699 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,280 Speaker 11: results of the vote came through to remind Emmanuel Macron 700 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 11: that they are willing to take the government, you know, 701 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,040 Speaker 11: to take the role of prime minister and lead a 702 00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 11: government if they should be so offered. And they've been 703 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 11: very clear about this, and this has been part of 704 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 11: the political jockeying that led up to this vote. 705 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 12: The Socialist Party had a choice that they could. 706 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 11: Have rode in behind Francoiberu and become part of a 707 00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 11: governing minority in Parliament. That they've chosen instead say, here's 708 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,640 Speaker 11: our alternative budget, which involves fiscal consolidation worth about half 709 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,839 Speaker 11: of what was in Francois Bayreux's plan and a couple 710 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 11: of more controversial measures like imposing a wealth tax on 711 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 11: fortunes of over one hundred million euros. They say that 712 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,080 Speaker 11: you can do fiscal consolidation slower. That's their condition for 713 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 11: taking part in government as well. They've also promised that 714 00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 11: they won't use the constitutional override in parliament to force 715 00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,000 Speaker 11: the budget through, that they will secure agreement from across 716 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:32,360 Speaker 11: the aisles in the French Assembly to secure a backing 717 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 11: for their budget plan. But it's very much they've laid 718 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 11: down their positions and there's not much as much sign 719 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 11: running up to now that there is really any room 720 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 11: for negotiation on that front as well. But they're definitely 721 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 11: the key players to watch when we're thinking about what 722 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 11: happens next, because without them you end up with exactly 723 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,880 Speaker 11: the same numbers that Michelle Bargnier had and that Francoiberu had, 724 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 11: and we know how that turned out. 725 00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,319 Speaker 4: Many thanks, Steven, You've been great today. 726 00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 2: Stephen Carroll Bloomberg Daybreak your ad co host with us 727 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, 728 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:06,800 Speaker 2: The Breaking news and the Red Headline from Paris. 729 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:11,279 Speaker 4: All unfolding since the lunch hour here in Washington, d C. 730 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 2: I'm Jill Matthew alongside Credie Gupta in Washington, where we 731 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,600 Speaker 2: have not yet touched the story of the day here 732 00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 2: in town. 733 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 4: It's at least the talker. 734 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 2: It's not a very pretty one, but it carries a 735 00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 2: headline that everybody woke up to this morning in Politico. 736 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,080 Speaker 4: Quote, I'm going to punch you in your blanking face. 737 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:35,880 Speaker 2: Scott Bessant threatens administration rival pretty remarkable, creedy. We're actually 738 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,920 Speaker 2: putting on the gloves for this one here. Remember when 739 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 2: Elon Musk showed up with the black eye, and it 740 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:44,520 Speaker 2: was right around the same time he was said to 741 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,440 Speaker 2: have a hallway encounter with Scott Bessant. 742 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:47,160 Speaker 8: I was about to. 743 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,440 Speaker 3: Say, this is not the first time Scott Bessant has 744 00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:50,880 Speaker 3: been in the throws. 745 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,080 Speaker 2: A lot of folks are wondering maybe that black eye 746 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 2: wasn't from X his child. We need to bring in 747 00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,600 Speaker 2: the panel on this, but maybe a dramatic reading just 748 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:01,480 Speaker 2: to start here. 749 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 6: Excellent. 750 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 4: Well, I'll tell you this is what we all woke 751 00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,359 Speaker 4: up to in Politico this morning. 752 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:12,120 Speaker 2: Scott Bessant and Bill Poulty right the Housing finance official 753 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 2: showed up at the inaugural dinner at Executive Branch. This 754 00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:19,360 Speaker 2: is the new swanky club in Georgetown, open for folks 755 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:24,719 Speaker 2: in Trump world. Apparently, Scott Bessant was very upset with 756 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 2: Pulty for bad mouthing him to the president. According to 757 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 2: this report, citing sources, quote, as Scott Bessont approached mister Pulty, 758 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,400 Speaker 2: why the blank are you talking to the president about me? 759 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:39,200 Speaker 4: Blank? 760 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:42,760 Speaker 2: You, I'm going to punch you in your blanking face. 761 00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,520 Speaker 2: Club co owner Oman Malick tried to separate them. Bessett 762 00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,719 Speaker 2: wasn't having it. It's either me or him. He said, 763 00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 2: you tell me who's getting the blank out of here, 764 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,640 Speaker 2: or we could go outside, suggesting they go out to 765 00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,480 Speaker 2: do this the old fashion to do what ask Pulty 766 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:02,319 Speaker 2: to talk? No, Bessant replied, I'm going to blanking beat 767 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:02,920 Speaker 2: your blank. 768 00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:04,759 Speaker 4: Now. 769 00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 2: This is a network here that has had to at 770 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,160 Speaker 2: times stand by for a president saying squares in the 771 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 2: live throes of the news day. So keep the delay 772 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,320 Speaker 2: handy as we bring in Rick and Jeanie Bloomberg politics 773 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 2: contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino back with us here 774 00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 2: in hour two, Rick, you worked at the White House 775 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:26,719 Speaker 2: in a very different administration where people throwing punches when 776 00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:27,560 Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan was. 777 00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,759 Speaker 4: In the Oval office. This is the way it's done 778 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:30,600 Speaker 4: here in Washington. 779 00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,840 Speaker 5: Well if they if they were, they were keeping it 780 00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,120 Speaker 5: quiet and not putting it on the front page of 781 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 5: political magazine. I mean, it's it's And by the way, 782 00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:41,560 Speaker 5: thank you Joe for going through that. I know how 783 00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,960 Speaker 5: dangerous it is for anybody in your business to have 784 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:48,080 Speaker 5: to say things. Yes, you think, but look, I mean, 785 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,960 Speaker 5: what a great way to get some publicity about your 786 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:51,640 Speaker 5: new club. 787 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,320 Speaker 4: I mean, Malick was must have been like, wow, this 788 00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:55,319 Speaker 4: is going to put us. 789 00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:58,000 Speaker 5: On the front page. Just what they were hoping for. 790 00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:00,960 Speaker 5: But look, I mean this, we've been talking about this today. 791 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 5: I mean an administration in a little bit of a 792 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,920 Speaker 5: state of disarray. Right right hand to know what the 793 00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:09,280 Speaker 5: left hand is doing when it comes to deportations. 794 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:11,040 Speaker 4: There have been conflicts over. 795 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:17,759 Speaker 5: Things like trade policy, and of course we you recounted 796 00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 5: the fight of some sort, either physical or or spoken 797 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:28,759 Speaker 5: between Scott Besson and Elon Musk over who are they 798 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:33,000 Speaker 5: were going to point to the Internal Revenue Service, And 799 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 5: so you know, I just love the fact that our 800 00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:40,680 Speaker 5: Treasury secretary is very muscular attitude toward his relationship with 801 00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:42,600 Speaker 5: Donald Trump and the rest of the administration. 802 00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,200 Speaker 3: Jeanie, I don't even know what to ask. You just 803 00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,480 Speaker 3: react to what Rag said to this Politico story. 804 00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,719 Speaker 10: Critty, I'm not surprised you are a speechless boy. 805 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,120 Speaker 16: I have to tell you I feel bad for the 806 00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,680 Speaker 16: other members of this club that you imagine you're a 807 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,320 Speaker 16: found member. Five hundred thousand dollars and this is the 808 00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,239 Speaker 16: birthday party you get invited to. 809 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,640 Speaker 10: It's really just very, very shocking. 810 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,239 Speaker 16: It's not the first time, as you mentioned, we've seen 811 00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,760 Speaker 16: Scott bessen in this kind of position. 812 00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:18,719 Speaker 10: But you know, you got to give him credit. 813 00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,600 Speaker 16: He's sixty three, Bill Poltie is thirty seven, and online 814 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,920 Speaker 16: you're seeing people take bets as if they did go outside, 815 00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,320 Speaker 16: who would win. So there you go, give Scott Besson 816 00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:33,520 Speaker 16: some credit for you know, he's he's not shy about 817 00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,400 Speaker 16: saying let's take it outside, even. 818 00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,680 Speaker 10: If the guy is half his age. So I guess 819 00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:39,400 Speaker 10: that's something. 820 00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,120 Speaker 4: Don't mess with Scott Bessent. 821 00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,439 Speaker 2: Let's, by the way, remind everybody this is the White 822 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,800 Speaker 2: House that's going to have a UFC fight on the 823 00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,920 Speaker 2: South Lawn. At some point next year. Is that what 824 00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,680 Speaker 2: the birthday party? Can't remember? If that's a fourth of 825 00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,400 Speaker 2: July event. I think they put a date on that, 826 00:41:58,560 --> 00:41:59,040 Speaker 2: But Rick. 827 00:41:58,920 --> 00:41:59,279 Speaker 4: I don't know. 828 00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,000 Speaker 2: Does this speak to the whole bro culture in the 829 00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,040 Speaker 2: White House? What does the Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles 830 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:04,560 Speaker 2: think about this? 831 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,320 Speaker 5: You know, it's it's we'll never know, because Susie Wiles 832 00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,560 Speaker 5: is one thing and that is super secretive with how 833 00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,160 Speaker 5: she feels and what she says to other people. So 834 00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,760 Speaker 5: she's the last person we're probably going to see lineup 835 00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,640 Speaker 5: on this one. But the reality is, I don't think 836 00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:22,919 Speaker 5: we've seen the last of this. In other words, there's 837 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,200 Speaker 5: kind of an all out fight within the finance community 838 00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 5: within the Trump administration, and you and producer James totally 839 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:31,360 Speaker 5: stole my thunder. 840 00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,880 Speaker 4: I was going to say, chain link fence, put these. 841 00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,080 Speaker 5: Guys in the arena in the backyard of the White 842 00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,800 Speaker 5: House on fourth of July, and then we can retire 843 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,120 Speaker 5: the federal debt by putting it on pay per view. 844 00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,440 Speaker 4: I mean, like, this would be fantastic. 845 00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:48,920 Speaker 2: Boy, Genie, I don't know if you're going to be 846 00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:50,840 Speaker 2: showing up for that one, but you know, there's a 847 00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:54,360 Speaker 2: question here. I don't know if creative destruction is the phrase, 848 00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 2: but tension within a team can sometimes actually generate results. 849 00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:01,719 Speaker 4: Sometimes Donald Trump. 850 00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,080 Speaker 2: Likes this right, for them to be arguing with each 851 00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:07,320 Speaker 2: other and for their cases to find the best position 852 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 2: on something or am I just making it up at this. 853 00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,320 Speaker 10: Point here, you're doing very well if you are a 854 00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,640 Speaker 10: Joe No. You know, it seems like he does. 855 00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,439 Speaker 16: And you look at this and you think, we're told 856 00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:22,600 Speaker 16: that Scott Besson's most biggest frustration against Poulty was he 857 00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,200 Speaker 16: was talking bad about him to Donald Trump, which is 858 00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:27,080 Speaker 16: sort of in line with what we see at these 859 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,120 Speaker 16: crazy cabinet meetings where they are trying to each out 860 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:33,760 Speaker 16: do each other and flattering Donald Trump. So it seems 861 00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,360 Speaker 16: to be that Donald Trump has quite a lineup of 862 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:37,720 Speaker 16: zycophants who want. 863 00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:42,000 Speaker 10: To bow to his feet, and this isn't keeping with that. 864 00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,160 Speaker 16: But the other thing I think is that Scott Besson 865 00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,719 Speaker 16: is under enormous pressure and this reflects that. I mean, 866 00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:49,520 Speaker 16: let's not forget. He was on Meet the Press this 867 00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,439 Speaker 16: weekend and he was asked repeatedly. 868 00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:53,120 Speaker 10: If tariffs are taxes. 869 00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,239 Speaker 16: He tried to dodge it, and then in the end 870 00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:59,200 Speaker 16: he said no, which Scott Besson knows is not true. 871 00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:01,880 Speaker 16: I might feel a little feisty if I had to 872 00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,440 Speaker 16: say that as well to get. 873 00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:04,360 Speaker 4: My bosses' interesting. 874 00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:07,800 Speaker 2: I don't know we were talking team of rivals or 875 00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:10,440 Speaker 2: looking for examples earlier. Rick, I'm thinking more like the 876 00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,560 Speaker 2: who you know Roger Daltrey, like these guys were beating 877 00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:15,440 Speaker 2: each other up, or Aerosmith. It's like one of the 878 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,880 Speaker 2: bands where Oasis producer James pointing to something a bit younger. 879 00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,440 Speaker 2: Is there actually, in a remaining moment, something positive about 880 00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:25,000 Speaker 2: that tension inside an administration? 881 00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:29,480 Speaker 5: Well, it certainly keeps everybody focused on needing to be 882 00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,200 Speaker 5: able to be inside the booth with Donald Trump. I mean, 883 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,440 Speaker 5: Donald Trump creates his tension by the fact that he 884 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:40,320 Speaker 5: makes himself the only one who decides your fate. And 885 00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:45,399 Speaker 5: and this actually reinforces that today. I guarantee you Bill 886 00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:50,640 Speaker 5: Polteley and and and and Treasury sect Messtin are all 887 00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,000 Speaker 5: about trying to explain this to Donald Trump in the 888 00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,800 Speaker 5: most negative light they can about the other person. 889 00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,960 Speaker 2: Just imagine what will happen when they're seen together at 890 00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:02,920 Speaker 2: the club. How much does that cost a year? It's 891 00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:04,600 Speaker 2: like a half a million dollars to be a member. 892 00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,239 Speaker 10: No pocket change please whatever you. 893 00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,480 Speaker 4: Say with prety goopta, I'm Joe Matthew. We'll be back. 894 00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:11,919 Speaker 2: Late edition of Balance of Power starts at five pm 895 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,400 Speaker 2: Washington Time. Big thanks to our panel for humoring us 896 00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,680 Speaker 2: as always, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. 897 00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:20,799 Speaker 2: Thanks to the Congressman as well for being with US 898 00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:25,200 Speaker 2: Congressman to conno this hour, This is Bloomberg. Thanks for 899 00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,360 Speaker 2: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to 900 00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,520 Speaker 2: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever 901 00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,160 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live 902 00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:37,440 Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time Eastern at 903 00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:38,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.