1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:04,559 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 2: people over for a seconds. 4 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by 5 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: the FanDuel's Sportsbook. Your host Brendan glas Sheen joined today 6 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: by our usual UFC betting preview crew. 7 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 3: Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. 8 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: In this episode, we are breaking down UFC two eighty 9 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: seven goes down this weekend in Miami, Florida. Eight prelims, 10 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: five fights on the main card. We'll look at favorite underdogs, 11 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: props am war, and then we'll finish up with best bets. 12 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: We also preview two events. We'll start with the main 13 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: event israel A, said Danya, taking on Alex Pereira this 14 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: coming weekend. Pereira a slight money line underdog. Gent's really 15 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: interested in this one. Pereira's got a lot of momentum. 16 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: Zerillo coming in again not just a slight underdog in 17 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:20,479 Speaker 1: this matchup, but they've met before in the kickboxing world, 18 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 1: and Adasanya has been not shy to discuss that he 19 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: may need to lay a couple of hammers here, but 20 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: it feels Pereira's power is something that really jumps out 21 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: to you. 22 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 3: Preview of the fight. 23 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: And how you want to bet it? 24 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 4: Yes. 25 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: So they fought last on a UC payer review and 26 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 3: Izzy was up one headed into the fifth round and 27 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: Pereira was told to go get a knockout, and he 28 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 3: did it. He was pressuring for the vast majority of 29 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 3: that fight. That was their third fight in combat sports, 30 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 3: first in MMA, they fought twice in kickboxing. Izzy also 31 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 3: in their last kickboxing fight, was winning on minutes and 32 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 3: then was knocked out late in the fight. He had 33 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 3: also in both fights stunned Pereira very badly at one point, 34 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 3: and kickboxing got a standing a count. If that had 35 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 3: been MMA, he would have been able to finish him. 36 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 3: In the first round of their last fight, Pereira was 37 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 3: actually winning minutes and then is he stunned him with 38 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 3: ten seconds to go, And if that round had been 39 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 3: twenty seconds longer, is he probably finishes the fight? So 40 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 3: when is he has gotten his big moments against Alex 41 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 3: has actually been unfortunate timing, but he has won the 42 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 3: vast majority of the minutes in their combat sports, in 43 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: their striking. That said, I've seen some takes where people 44 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 3: are saying that is he is minus three hundred in 45 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 3: a minute winning match. You know, if it goes to decision, 46 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,920 Speaker 3: that is, he should be minus three hundred one minute winning. 47 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 3: I could not disagree more with that take. Just watching 48 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 3: the last fight back, you know the size advantage that 49 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 3: Alex has. He looks like a light heavyweight. He hits 50 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,839 Speaker 3: harder clearly, and he was the first person I've seen 51 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 3: who was willing to kick with Izzy kick for kick. 52 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 3: Is He actually said the reason why his movement slopes 53 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 3: it down so much in that fight was because Alex 54 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 3: was hitting his peronial nerve and kind of killed his 55 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 3: lead leg, forcing him the switch stances and whatnot. The 56 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 3: first round I thought Perera was winning until the final 57 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: ten seconds. They had two other fifty to fifty striking 58 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,119 Speaker 3: rounds in that fight. Is he dominated the round where 59 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,119 Speaker 3: he decided to grapple, and then Alex dominated the fifth 60 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 3: round ultimately when he got the knockout. So I don't 61 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 3: see where the minute winning was so dominant for Izzy 62 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: in that matchup. He led on strikes in most of 63 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 3: the rounds, but Alex controlled the distance, and he controlled 64 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 3: the pace. He pressured Izzy into the corner repeatedly and 65 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 3: the distance where he ultimately got that knockout was the 66 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 3: distance where a lot of that fight took place where 67 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 3: he was throwing his left hook, but is he's back 68 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 3: against the cage, and is he was using a lot 69 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 3: of head movement and dodging it. But ultimately it landed, 70 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 3: and it felt like it was going to land the 71 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 3: whole fight, even watching it live. It's not This is 72 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 3: not me saying in hindsight it felt like it was 73 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 3: going to land the whole fight. I legitimately thought watching 74 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 3: it live, it was it'll land the whole fight. His 75 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 3: line is dropped from plus one eighty now down closer 76 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 3: to even money. 77 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 4: YEP. 78 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 3: I like him still here at this price. He has 79 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: more finishing upside, I would say, is he retains the 80 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 3: grappling upside and probably is the slightly better minute winner. 81 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 3: But I don't think he's minus three hundred on the 82 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 3: minute winning. So Alex on the money line plus one fifteen. 83 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 3: That's my price target. Alex by knockout or inside the 84 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 3: distance down to plus one ninety I think is fine 85 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 3: as well, just given how this played out last time. 86 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 3: The you know the mental aspect too. I don't want 87 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 3: to go too deep into it. I'm not a narrative guy. 88 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 3: But just like watching the lead up to this fight, 89 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 3: Alex is literally sitting in Glover to Chairror's living room 90 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:41,720 Speaker 3: watching movies with his full UFC kid on. This guy 91 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 3: lives in Breeze being a UFC fighter. Is he still 92 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 3: doing like the quoting, you know, movies stuff leading up 93 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 3: to his fights? He kind of looks like the guy 94 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 3: who's not buying his own hype anymore. I don't want 95 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 3: to get too into the narrative in the mental aspect, 96 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 3: because that's not how a handicap fights. But I mean, 97 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 3: in terms of focus, Alex Prayer is one of the 98 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 3: scariest human beings I've ever seen on the planet. 99 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: I'll do what you do oftentimes when you do Payoff 100 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: Pitch our baseball betting podcast a action network, you'll you'll 101 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: use a comp of the early round. You might jump 102 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: in and make a money line pick on a team 103 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: if if a pitcher that you wanted to back is 104 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: now out of the game, et cetera, et cetera. Well, 105 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: the pitchers do the same crap when they do the 106 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: postgame press conference and they try to tell themselves, yeah, 107 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: you know, really tough conditions today, you're tipping your pitches 108 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: and they the narrative, So I'll do that. I'll do 109 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: what you do, Zorillo, except the narrative part. Yeah, Autasnya 110 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: with some some some zingers this week. 111 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: Someone he's trying to quote like M and M's eight mile, 112 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 3: like you only got one shot, and it's like, bro, 113 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 3: this is your fourth I mean you have one shot 114 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 3: to beat him for the fourth time. You have one 115 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 3: shot to fight him and beat him otherwise nobody ever 116 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 3: wants to see this fight again. So sure, but it's 117 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 3: it's getting old. Uh But I mean just alex Is. 118 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 3: Alex is terrifying, Like he's watching Disney movies in a 119 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 3: full UFC kit on a couch. He's he's different. 120 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: If you look at the markets on FanDuel for this fight, 121 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: what round will the fight end? 122 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: Plus four sixty? 123 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: Round one is the shortest number, and that would be 124 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: an edge based on the money line number, just just 125 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 1: talking how the market's set up. That would give Israel 126 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: a nod based on his his style and how it's 127 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: worked for him. But Billy, you've got your luck ratings up. 128 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: We'll dive into those more when we get to the 129 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: other fight. 130 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 3: That we want to highlight. 131 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 4: Tonight. 132 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: But it seems this run that Pereira is on, you're 133 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: with Zilla. You want to back Pereira and how he's 134 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: looked as of late. 135 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, first thing, do you guys not watch 136 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 5: Disney movies on your couch in full fight gear? 137 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:39,359 Speaker 3: Here's that we're all doing that coming up, nast. 138 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: It's back to back episodes of Lizzie McGuire right here 139 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:44,799 Speaker 1: on Disney Channel. 140 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 4: That's how I study. 141 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: Tape for the trying to think of like Mulan is 142 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: a good one, you know, and they all get like 143 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: hype and that in that when Mulan's training. 144 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 3: So, I mean, Mally would have been a UFC heavyweight champion, 145 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 3: got you know, you got Mowana in there. Yeah, there's 146 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 3: there's definitely champs amongst the Disney cast. 147 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 5: Absolutely, but no, I mean, you know, Sean brought it 148 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 5: up as a narrative, but I think there's something to it. 149 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 5: He's living with a high level grappler in Glover text era. 150 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 5: They brought in Jalaton Almeado, who's tearing it up at heavyweight. 151 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 5: First of all, Pehea makes him look tiny despite being 152 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 5: in theory two weight classes smaller, so he's bringing in 153 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 5: these high level guys, they're like grappling in the living 154 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 5: room and like he's he's really living and breathing that 155 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 5: grappling and wrestling aspect of it right now, which I 156 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 5: think is a really underutilized or under point that we're 157 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 5: not talking about well enough here. Because he got a 158 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 5: takedown on out of Signya in their first fight. I 159 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 5: actually wouldn't be shocked if Pejea looks to use his 160 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 5: size in a little bit of that wrestling. He can 161 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 5: steal some minutes that way. He can also tell you 162 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 5: out out of Sonya trying to get a much bigger 163 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 5: guy off him. But other than that, the thing that 164 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 5: stands out to me is this is weirdly similar to 165 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 5: the Usman Edwards pay per view we just had where 166 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 5: we had a long reigning champion, you know, was winning 167 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 5: the fight until he didn't against a past rival, and 168 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 5: then all of a sudden, the guy who won the 169 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 5: last fight is a big underdog coming in. But you know, 170 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,119 Speaker 5: underdogs who won the last fight in rematches are better 171 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 5: than five hundred straight up on the money line. 172 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 4: We're getting plus money on Peya. 173 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 5: I'm with Sean. I'm also going to play the inside 174 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 5: the distance. Five rounds is a long time for a 175 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 5: guy like that with so much power. Out of Sonya 176 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 5: pretty much needs to win this fight for twenty five minutes, 177 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 5: where hey, it just needs to win, you know, a 178 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 5: ten second exchange where he lamps the bigger punch. So 179 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 5: from betting standpoint total, Louis Sean kind of surprised that 180 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 5: he just keeps beating this guy and just keeps coming 181 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 5: in as underdog, Like, how many times does he have 182 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 5: to do it before he gets favorite in the market? 183 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 5: But it's not this time, so I'm going to take 184 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 5: advantage of it. 185 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: If you do subscribe to Disney Plus, you will not 186 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: see this quote from out of Sonya, which was what 187 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: if I butcher him? What if I beat the fuck 188 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: out of him? 189 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 3: So you can't get that, not Disney. 190 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 1: Plus, that's for sure. Okay, moving on, the Disney jokes 191 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: are over, Let's go to our favorite underdogs on the 192 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: car to gain. We've got eight prelimbs and then five 193 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: on the main card. Zerrilla, where are you seeing value? 194 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, Billy and I talked a bunch about this fight 195 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 3: off line, and I think we both agree that Raul 196 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 3: Rosas is going to be able to take down Christian Rodriguez. 197 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 3: We disagreees to what is going to happen after that, 198 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 3: So Rodriguez does tend to give up takedowns and give 199 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 3: his back as he's standing, and Rosas from that point 200 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 3: maybe able to lock into body triangle, finish him from there, 201 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 3: or at least get some dominant positional control with the 202 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 3: body triangle. I tend to think that Rodriguez is elite 203 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 3: at escaping from those positions. He's very good at scrambling. 204 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 3: He has a high school wrestling background. I believe he 205 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 3: might want to stay championship at one point, but he's 206 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 3: been training MMA since he was fourteen. Rosas gets all 207 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 3: this hype as this you know, team prodigy getting into 208 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 3: the UFC, and he's great for his age. I'm not 209 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 3: sure if he is a future champion like some people 210 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 3: are calling for, because I think his striking is very 211 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,719 Speaker 3: raw and underdeveloped, and Rodriguez has a clear striking edge 212 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 3: in this matchup. Billy and I talked about all the 213 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:03,719 Speaker 3: time the three aspects of MMA, striking, grappling, wrestling. I 214 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 3: think Rodriguez has a bigger advantage in the striking than 215 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,839 Speaker 3: Rosas has any grappling or the wrestling. Billy would probably 216 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 3: disagree with that, but that's perfectly fine, and that's where 217 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: we disagree in the handicap for the fight. But if 218 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,599 Speaker 3: Rodriguez is able to keep the fight on feet, or 219 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 3: if he's able to get on his feet for at 220 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 3: least one minute out of each round and land the 221 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 3: more impactful strikes, he can absolutely win this fight. Because 222 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 3: Rosas isn't a particularly big damage guy in the ground. 223 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 3: He tends to control people or look for submissions, but 224 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 3: he's not the most threatening fighter even with his control time. 225 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 3: So this could be a fight where Roses racks up 226 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 3: ten minutes of control three minutes in each round, but 227 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 3: Rodriguez in the two minutes minute and a half where 228 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 3: it's on the feed for each round, lands the more 229 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 3: impactful strikes and takes a decision. I also give him 230 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: more finishing upside on the feet. I don't really see 231 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 3: him as a guy who is going to get submitted 232 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 3: quite easily either, So you will get the way Rodriguez 233 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 3: his coaches talk about him. He's set. I think said 234 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 3: he's been training MMA. Seems he's fourteen. They call him 235 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 3: a prodigy in their own gym. He's twenty five. Years old, 236 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 3: more in his physical prime than ros Us Is. I 237 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 3: just think this is going to be a really good 238 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,959 Speaker 3: and competitive fight. I totally see the takes. The ability 239 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 3: is going to give later with regards to rosas Is 240 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 3: grappling upside, but I think Rodriguez is going to do 241 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 3: a bit better defensively there than Rosas well. 242 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: On the feed, I could not find if he was 243 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: a state champion in wrestling in high school. 244 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 4: I was looking. 245 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd seen some people say that, but I you know, 246 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 3: it's more about the fact that he's been training MMA 247 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 3: for eleven years. It's not a guy who, you know, 248 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 3: came into the gym at eighteen. He's been training since 249 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 3: he was fourteen. They love him duper Rufus loves him 250 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 3: in this gym. They call him a prodigy there. So 251 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 3: you have a couple of prodigies matched up in the 252 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 3: first fight on his main card, But everybody gives Rosas 253 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 3: the hype. I don't think many people are aware of 254 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 3: Christian Arriguez, how talented this guy is in his own gym. 255 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 3: Fought jsp at a high pace, a guy who puts 256 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 3: a high wrestling pace on him, and he was still 257 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 3: close to finishing jsp in the third round. So he's 258 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 3: going to be able to fight through adversity, keep going 259 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:03,439 Speaker 3: and be dangerous throughout the fight. That's the kind of 260 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 3: guy I want to bat at plus the ten. 261 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: All right, very well rounded, and this is a test. 262 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: We'll see if he's up for it. Billy, where are 263 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: you finding value in the under for an underdog this week? 264 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna give my full rebuttal on the Royal 265 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 5: Rosis fight a little bit later on, but for my underdog, 266 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 5: I'm looking at that. Both Shawn and I agree on 267 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 5: Steve Garcia. He's about I think we got him at 268 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,599 Speaker 5: one plus one fifty five somewhere in there, depending on 269 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 5: where you look. He's fighting Shilin Nerdon Becky, and this 270 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 5: is another one of those two out of the three things. 271 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 5: I think Garcia kind of has clearly better striking here, 272 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 5: at least in terms of being a finisher. He's finished 273 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 5: both of his UFC wins by knockout Neworden. Becky's only 274 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 5: finish in the UFC was that weird fight against Derek 275 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 5: Minner where Minner was clearly hurt, and you know, there's 276 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 5: the whole betting scandal. That's the only finish. We've seen 277 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 5: some newerden Becky. Other than that, he's just one decisions. 278 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 5: I also think Garcia has the better wrestling here. I'm 279 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 5: not as confident in that take. Nordon Becky has more 280 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 5: takedowns per minute in the UFC, but he's fought a 281 00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 5: lower level of competition at least in terms of grapp 282 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 5: than Garcia. 283 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 4: So this is a fight. I'd make it much closer 284 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 4: to a pick him. 285 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 5: Plus one fifty five plus one sixty range on Garcia 286 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 5: is more than enough for me. 287 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 3: All right. 288 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: Moving on to the fight of the night that the 289 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,839 Speaker 1: guys are targeting, Gilbert Burns Jorge Masvidal, Billy, I want 290 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: to go to you first on this one because you've 291 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: got your article up on actionnetwork dot com the Action 292 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: Network app. You actually find Masvidal to be undervalued. He's 293 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:29,719 Speaker 1: at plus three sixty for this particular fight. Really fascinating 294 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 1: because you look at the grappling here and there might 295 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: be a case to be made when you break this 296 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: one down, that Masvidal might be more of an underrated grappler. 297 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: We know that the grappling and Burns has checks a 298 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: lot of boxes, but why do you feel Masvidal might 299 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: have some value here. 300 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a tough one. I don't think he's 301 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 5: going to win. You know, if we're about even money 302 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 5: on this, there's no chance I would take mass Vidal. 303 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 5: But this is kind of just a disrespectful line. You know, 304 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 5: Sean's going to talk about mass Vidal's underrated grappling defense 305 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 5: with his pick, and that's playing endt of mind too. 306 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 5: Mine's more of a prop squad style pick. But plus 307 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 5: seven hundred on a knockout line for a guy who 308 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 5: pretty much only wins by a knockout is a real 309 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 5: good price. Burns has also shown a little bit of 310 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 5: issues with his chin in the past. You know, he's 311 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 5: not a guy I'd say he has a glass chin 312 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 5: by any stretch. But he got knocked out at lightweight 313 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 5: before he came up to welter weight, got knocked out 314 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 5: by Usman, which no shame in that. But Usman doesn't 315 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 5: knock a ton of people out, So for him to 316 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 5: get knocked out by what tepology calls the power jab 317 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 5: is not a great sign. So you know, mass Vetal 318 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 5: has a better than average puncher's chance here. You can 319 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 5: get the knockout at plus seven hundred. I think if 320 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 5: it's gonna happen, it's probably gonna happen earlier rather than later. 321 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 5: So if you even wanted to take a round one, 322 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 5: round two, that's an option. I'm not giving that specific 323 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 5: just because plus seven hundreds juicy enough for me, But yeah, 324 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 5: underrated grappling defense. He's not going to try to grapple offensively, 325 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 5: and he can, you know, swing his hands for a 326 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 5: few minutes here and there in between takedowns. 327 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 4: If he lands one, plus seven hundreds a great price. 328 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 3: And on the other. 329 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: Side, Burns is developed bing Zillo as a knockout guy, 330 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: making a case here for the welterweight title bid if 331 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: he continues at this particular pace. Mosvedel's difficult to submit 332 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: when you weigh all that in. How do you want 333 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: to bet this one? 334 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 3: Yeah? I like mospital and a sscrivior it. It's funny. 335 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 3: I had to check that power jab thing on tapology. 336 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 3: It does say power jab to ground pound, which I've 337 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 3: never seen listed for a knockout before. But it goes 338 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 3: to show you, I mean, a new spot hits hard. 339 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 3: He knocked out both of these guys technically, but he 340 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 3: mocked out moscoital cold. He put Burns down with a jab, 341 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 3: and I don't love the chins for either of these guys. Actually, 342 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 3: I would say more. I'm more likely to think that 343 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: Moscoital gets knocked out than submitted in this fight, which 344 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 3: I don't think would be the take that most people 345 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 3: would have. I would assume the odds completely disagree with 346 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 3: that as well. Moscoital in his last fight against Colby 347 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 3: got put up against the fence a lot. I think 348 00:15:57,880 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 3: that's where Burns is going to try to put all 349 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 3: out of this fight. Expect to see a fight similar 350 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 3: to the first Usmann Moscital fight or TV Burns WonderBoy fight, 351 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 3: where Burns is just trying to suffocate him up against 352 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 3: the fence for the vast majority of it, basically try 353 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 3: to get him down and sit in his lap and 354 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 3: control him. Moscadal's great submission defense. He has really good 355 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 3: takedown defense historically, but he's also thirty eight and he's 356 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 3: nowhere near his physical prime. This was Masiedal five years ago. 357 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 3: I would probably bet him here easily at plus four hundred, 358 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 3: like easily, but he's he's so late in his career. 359 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 3: It seems like Burns is peaking again on the way 360 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 3: to a title run. I just love how Burns's look lately. 361 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 3: But there were moments in that Colby Covington fight where 362 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 3: Kolby was shooting for legs and then he would come 363 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 3: up and he'd hit Hore with a couple of shots. 364 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 3: And there was one or two moments I believe I 365 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 3: had to fight to go to a decision to be over. 366 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 3: Over four and a half, I thought Mosvidal was gonna 367 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 3: go out. He was completely stunned from Pillow Fitz Colby. 368 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 3: Burns hits way harder, So I think there's going to 369 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 3: be a moment where Burns is switching levels up against 370 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 3: the cage. Orge goes to defend of the takedown. Burns 371 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 3: comes back up with a punch and I think he 372 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 3: might clip Jorge and put him down if he doesn't 373 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 3: get the takedowns, if he doesn't finish jorgey, I expect 374 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,199 Speaker 3: this one to go to a decision. I actually think 375 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 3: Orge's power, his power in his hands is a little 376 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 3: bit overrated at one seventy. I know I'm not so 377 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,880 Speaker 3: trusting of Burns's durability, but he went through a full 378 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 3: war with Hamzad. Maybe the chin is ready to krack 379 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 3: who knows, but I like the over here two and 380 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,199 Speaker 3: a half plus one fifteen. Burns VI decision plus one 381 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 3: seventy made that closer to plus one fifty. I like 382 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 3: Jorge's ability to defend grappling, survive submission, survive submissions, defend 383 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 3: the takedown attempts. Maybe make this competitive. If he can 384 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 3: keep this on the feet, He's going to be wive 385 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 3: at his price range and can absolutely win a split 386 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 3: decision in Miami. That's not out of the question either. 387 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 3: So over two and a half certainly prefer to Burn's decision. 388 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,160 Speaker 3: You could get screwed on the core cards, but yeah, 389 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 3: I think mostal could do enough. 390 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: Just to rob plus money on the over rounds over 391 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: two and a half at plus one fourteen as we 392 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:11,640 Speaker 1: speak at Fandel Sportsbook. Okay, onto the prop market. Top 393 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 1: props that you're eyeing, Sean Zillo. 394 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple of decision props. Rob Font via decision, 395 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 3: Chris Curtis via decision Font plus two eighty five Chris 396 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 3: Curtis plus two forty of the two, I prefer Font 397 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 3: my favorite fright of the card, Rob Font. Adrian z 398 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 3: Yez one of my maybe my favorite fighter in the 399 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 3: UFC Honestly, I just love how he fights. He talks 400 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 3: about admiring guys like Marvin Hagler, going to war, putting 401 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 3: on shows for the fans. He knows what it's about. 402 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 3: But he's also this super respectful guy. He's not a 403 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 3: trash talker. He's not trying to be fake. So Adrian 404 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 3: Yon has a really easy guy to root for. He's 405 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 3: very real, but he's also a really fun fighter and 406 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,439 Speaker 3: wants to put on a show with the fans. That said, 407 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 3: all the guys he's beaten aren't in the UFC anymore, 408 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 3: and this is a big step up in competition for him. 409 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 3: Rob Font has fought five round made events against the 410 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 3: best in the vision. Adriene is taking a step up 411 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 3: here and he's the favorite. I actually think if this 412 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 3: price tag were flipped, I wouldn't have batted an eye 413 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 3: at all. If Rob reminus one eighty and Adrian was 414 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 3: plus he one sixty, it wouldn't have surprised me whatsoever. 415 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 3: I think Font his more volume, more grappling upside. He 416 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 3: also probably is the faster hands. He just has some 417 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 3: durability concerns. He's thirty five, taking a ton of damine 418 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 3: at his last two fights. He actually I believe, set 419 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 3: a record for the most significant strikes landed relative to 420 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 3: his opponent against cheeto Vera, and he lost the fight 421 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 3: because he got wobbled in every round fought. Basically wins 422 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 3: ninety to ninety percent of the minutes of his fights, 423 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 3: but he gets wobbled at the wrong time once in 424 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 3: each round and loses those rounds. So in terms of 425 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 3: minute winning, how I would direct out a fight, especially 426 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 3: with how Adrian starts. Adrienne has that pyotr Jan cheeto 427 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 3: Vera tendency to start slow, get his reads, and then 428 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 3: pick up the pace. That's great for five round fights, 429 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 3: not great for three round fights. So we've seen him 430 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 3: get a lot of round two knockouts coming back on opponents. 431 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 3: Maybe he can knock font out. Font gets hurt, but 432 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 3: he doesn't get knocked out. So fifteen minute fight Rob 433 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,400 Speaker 3: font Via decision plus two eighty five. I'm not gonna 434 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 3: go into the whole Chris Curtis breakdown, but Chris Curtis 435 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 3: be a decision plus two forty. He's a very versatile fighter. 436 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 3: He can CounterPunch, he can try to outpace you. I 437 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 3: think he's going to try to outpace his opponent tomorrow. 438 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 3: So Chris Curtis VI a decision plus two forty Fontfi 439 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 3: is a decision plus two eighty five. Expect both to 440 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 3: have the striking volume adge if it goes fifteen minutes. 441 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 1: Billy, as you tease, do you have some pushback to Zarillo? 442 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: You're backing Roa sauce in a certain fashion in the 443 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,919 Speaker 1: prop market, and if you missed it a second ago 444 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: Zirillo to back Christian Rodriguez is a money line underdog. 445 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 3: Go ahead, Billy, what do you got? 446 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna bet Rosas inside the distance at slight 447 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 5: plus money about plus one twenty. Now this is not 448 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 5: saying that you could also take Sean's pick on Rodriguez money, 449 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 5: because I do think Roses needs to win this one 450 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 5: inside the distance. Sean made really good points. He doesn't 451 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 5: do any damage on the ground. He's purely looking for submissions. 452 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 5: With that said, we're basing that off things he's done. 453 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 5: You know, before he turned eighteen and a half. He 454 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 5: could probably add to his game a little bit at 455 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 5: this point in his life, but I still think that 456 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 5: that habit is in there where he needs to finish 457 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 5: one way or the other to get this done. I'm 458 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 5: hoping he strikes a little bit more on the ground, 459 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 5: but you know, his submission skills are to a point 460 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 5: where we don't really rely on it. The other thing, 461 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,400 Speaker 5: Sean pointed out that, you know, Rodriguez has a wrestling 462 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 5: base and is really good at escaping with a guy 463 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 5: in his back, I don't think that's going to work 464 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 5: against Rosis. 465 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 4: You know, Roses backpack. 466 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 5: Mando Gutier's around for fifteen minutes in Contender Series fight, 467 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 5: and Mando is a very high level grappler. I think 468 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 5: we can all agree that wrestling is probably the best 469 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 5: single base for m MA. If there's a flaw on it, 470 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 5: it's that you tend to give your back. You know, 471 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,159 Speaker 5: wrestling you don't want to be on your back. You 472 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 5: want to be on your stomach because you don't get pinned. 473 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 5: But that exposes your back a lot. And a guy 474 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 5: with Roses who has great back control, long legs, works 475 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 5: in body triangles, switches them really well. 476 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 4: Well, I don't think anyone. 477 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 5: Can survive with him on his back for fifteen minutes 478 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 5: or the better part of fifteen minutes. So I just 479 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 5: really think the UFC picked stylistically the best fighter they 480 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 5: could with a reasonable record for Ross Here because a 481 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 5: guy who's willing to get taken down and willing to 482 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 5: expose his back on the way back up, it's kind 483 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 5: of Taylor made for what he likes to do. 484 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 4: And do well. 485 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 5: The UFC obviously is trying to build up ross Here 486 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 5: a little bit more than Christian Rodriguez. That goes into 487 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 5: it a little bit. I will say he probably needs 488 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 5: to get it done inside the distance. So if you 489 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 5: wanted to take both Shawn and ice Pick, you got 490 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 5: plus money on both sides. 491 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 4: That's a pretty good place to be. 492 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: All right, Zarrillo? 493 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 3: Any response to that? Are you good? No? I think 494 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 3: Billy gave a very reasonable breakdown. I think we disagree 495 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 3: the fight. The fight hinges on those back takes and 496 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 3: whether Rodriguez going to escape for them, because I agree 497 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 3: they're going to be there. The question is can ros 498 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 3: Us lock him in? Can Rodriguez escape? So I think 499 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 3: that's where the fight determines. He wins. 500 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: Hey, let's wrap up UFC two eighty seven betting pre 501 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: you with best bets Zorrilla first, then we'll. 502 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 3: Go to Billy. Yeah, this is not a card where 503 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 3: I have like a best bet. This is the best 504 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 3: of the rest. I'm going to echo Billy's thoughts on 505 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 3: Steve Garcia here plus one fifty five an. It's a 506 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 3: similar matchup the Dynamics with the Rosas fight in terms 507 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 3: of Shalin being the better takedown guy, getting more control, 508 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 3: but not being a damaged guy on the ground. He 509 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 3: can go fifteen minutes and land fifteen to twenty five strikes. 510 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 3: He doesn't attempt any offense. So even if Garcia gets 511 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 3: out wrestled here spends twelve minutes on his back, he 512 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 3: might have a moment in each round where he steals 513 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 3: it on the feet with damage. And this is how 514 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 3: fights get scored lately. I'm fine betting these underdogs now, 515 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 3: who I think can get controlled but get up and 516 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 3: land like one or two punches over the course of 517 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 3: the three minutes that they're standing for the whole fight 518 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 3: and steal decision because if their opponent isn't going to 519 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 3: do anything, them doing one thing maybe enough to steal round. 520 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 3: So Steve Garcia very reckless, bad chin, but has more 521 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 3: our better striker, so it's a bit odd in that 522 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,399 Speaker 3: he's a glass cannon. I think he can finish his 523 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 3: opponent and normally I wouldn't think that his opponent would 524 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 3: be able to finish somebody else with strikes, but Steve 525 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 3: is so reckless and keeps his chin up that it 526 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 3: will be there. So this could be a high variance 527 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 3: fight where somebody just falls in the pocket over fifteen minutes. 528 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 3: Though I think Arcia is very live to take a 529 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 3: decision just based off of doing more and trying to 530 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:28,159 Speaker 3: do more. So Steve Garcia plus one fifty five on enthusiasm, 531 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 3: not on skill. 532 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: All right, Billy, take us home. When you got a 533 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 1: best bet that's not a best bet? 534 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 5: You know I'm joking no for once, and in disagreement 535 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 5: with Zerrilla, I actually have one that I truly think 536 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 5: is my best bet. And he teed it up perfectly 537 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 5: talking about enthusiasm over scale. Luanna Panero, I wrote her 538 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 5: up in the luck ratings. I was shocked that we 539 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 5: could get her at minus one sixty five last week 540 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 5: when I wrote it up, even more shocked that she's 541 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 5: still minus one sixty five now. She's extremely aggressive. She 542 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,360 Speaker 5: just swarms with strikes. She's fighting Michelle Waterson, who does 543 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 5: the opposite Mischoe. Watterson tries to fight with as little 544 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 5: fighting as possible. She looks like she's shadowboxing from a 545 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 5: few feet away for most of her fights, which plays 546 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 5: horribly to the judges. Now, normally fighters rushing in recklessly 547 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 5: with strikes like that is a little bit dangerous because 548 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 5: you expose yourself to takedowns. Here's why I like Panero 549 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 5: so much, world class judo. You know, both of her 550 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 5: fights so far in the UFC, she would rush in. 551 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 5: If her opponent clitch, she tosses them on her head, 552 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 5: no problem, that's all part of the plan. I think 553 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 5: people are down on her a little bit because her 554 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 5: last fight went the full fifteen minutes against you know, 555 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 5: lesser quality competition. But that was good for her because 556 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 5: she had won every single one of her other fights 557 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 5: almost immediately, at least at a high level. Last point 558 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 5: on this she's ten and one. Pinero is ten and 559 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 5: one as a pro only lost by split decision. Waterson 560 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 5: is one in four over the last fourish years only. 561 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 4: When was a split decision. 562 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 5: So in terms of being on the wrong side or 563 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 5: right side of variance here, that's pretty clear picture as well. 564 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 5: This one, for sure actually is my best bet. 565 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 1: All right, Jent's good stuff again. You can find Billy 566 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 1: Ward's UFC two eighty seven luck rankings. Luck ratings. Pardon me, 567 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: some are rank I guess sum. 568 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 3: Are ranked ranking. 569 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 4: I go back and forth. 570 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, they both really work. It's kind of the same thing. 571 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 3: Really. 572 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 1: You can find that actionnetwork dot com Action Network Gap 573 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: a lot of undervalued fighters and so the some edges 574 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: to be found, according to Billy, can find these guys 575 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,959 Speaker 1: in the Action app Seanzarella Billy Ward be sure to 576 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 1: track them in the app if they have any late 577 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: ads to their betting card for Saturday. Enjoy the fight, everybody. 578 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,959 Speaker 1: That concludes our UFC two to eighty seven betting preview 579 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: here on the Action Network Podcast, presented by Fandel I'm 580 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: your host again, Brendan glass Sheen. Thank you all so 581 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: much for tuning in. We will join you again next 582 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:49,360 Speaker 1: week on the Action Network podcast. Action Network reminds you 583 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 1: please gambler responsibly. If you or someone you care about 584 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 1: has a gambling problem. Help is available twenty four to 585 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler