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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Congress is taking up a bill

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Speaker 1: to avert the rail strike. We have a wild show today.

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Speaker 1: First we'll talk to Inside Elections Jacob Rubaskan about Senator

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Speaker 1: warnox runoff race in Georgia against herschall Walker. Then we'll

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Speaker 1: talk to Washington Post democracy reporter Avan Winged Sanchez about

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Speaker 1: all the fuckory with the votes in Arizona. But first

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Speaker 1: we have the host of the focus group podcast, The Bulwarks,

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Speaker 1: Sarah Longwell. Welcome too, Fast Politics. Sarah Longwell, Hey, thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me. Great to be here, Thank you. I

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Speaker 1: feel like we're weeding through all of these Republican responses

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Speaker 1: to Trump's Nick fuent As dinner, and I was like,

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Speaker 1: we need someone who can explain what the hell is

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Speaker 1: happening with this Republican party. And I was like, the

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Speaker 1: bolt works, Sarah Longwhile I'm happy to be your serfa

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Speaker 1: through this insanity, let's just I'm gonna set the scene

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Speaker 1: for you. Trump has dinner with a white supremacist and

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Speaker 1: Kanye West, who is in the middle of some kind

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Speaker 1: of epic anti semitted meltdown Tuesday night, right before Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: the Sleepy Slow newsweek, and now the response is slightly

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Speaker 1: different than what it might have been in two thousands seventeen,

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Speaker 1: but also oddly the same discuss. Well, boy, where to start? Okay,

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the fact that Kanye, first of all,

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Speaker 1: was kind of setting Trump up here, Like the ostensible

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Speaker 1: reason for Kanye to go to this dinner with Trump,

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Speaker 1: uh and bring Nick flent As was like to ask

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Speaker 1: Trump to be his vice presidential like on his ticket.

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Speaker 1: So like that, the whole thing is insane from from

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Speaker 1: start to finish. But to your point, you're asking a

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Speaker 1: bigger question with like, is the response the same or different?

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Speaker 1: The response is kind of different in the sense that

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Speaker 1: right now we're in a new moment. We are in

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Speaker 1: a genuinely new moment that is different from after when

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Speaker 1: Trump was elected and he was you know, and he

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Speaker 1: was elected with majorities in both the House and Senate,

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Speaker 1: and basically Republicans decided to get on board, unless you're

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Speaker 1: Paul Ryan, who like tapped out. They basically all got

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Speaker 1: on board with Trump and then he was going to

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Speaker 1: be the nominee. I was trying to recruit people to

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Speaker 1: primary him. Nobody wanted to do it. Everybody just decided

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Speaker 1: they were going to go all in on this guy again.

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Speaker 1: Most people had made their peace with him. But now

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Speaker 1: after losing in and then you know, dragging through primaries

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of election deniers basically made in his image,

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Speaker 1: and having all of them in swing states go down

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Speaker 1: in flames, there is a renewed sense among the people

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Speaker 1: who never really liked Trump to begin with but have

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Speaker 1: been carrying his water now for uh seven years, that like,

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Speaker 1: we gotta get rid of this guy. And the big

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Speaker 1: differences is that now facing an open Republican primary, like

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Speaker 1: there are other places to go. Not only are there

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Speaker 1: other places to go, like Rhonda Santis or Christy Nome

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Speaker 1: or Glenionka or whatever, there's like other people that they

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Speaker 1: can before and still beyond the team. They can also

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Speaker 1: criticize Trump and still beyond the team, because the criticism

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Speaker 1: is not hey, this guy did a coup, or hey,

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Speaker 1: this guy is repugnant in every aspect of both his

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Speaker 1: person and his policy, but it's that he's a loser, right,

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Speaker 1: He's causing the team to lose, And so you can

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Speaker 1: stay on team on side and criticize Trump now with

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Speaker 1: more impunity than they've been able to do in a

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Speaker 1: very long time. But what's weird about this flent As

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Speaker 1: thing is that you are seeing sort of rumblings of

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Speaker 1: people condemning it on the Republican side, but for the

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Speaker 1: most part, the way that it's still the same as

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Speaker 1: like they think that even in this moment, that's different.

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Speaker 1: They don't need to go on offense against Trump, right,

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Speaker 1: Like what you would expect in this moment, just like

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Speaker 1: you would expect in the moment just after January six

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Speaker 1: where they could have impeached him, is for them to

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Speaker 1: be like, let's put the nail in the coffin on

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Speaker 1: this guy's political career. He is destroying us. And like

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Speaker 1: they always sort of take a pass on that opportunity

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Speaker 1: because they want Trump gone, but they've never felt like

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Speaker 1: it can be by their hands. This is the very

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Speaker 1: important role You have to understand that never Trumper's play

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Speaker 1: is like they want to be able to criticize us

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Speaker 1: so that they can stay on side, but they expect

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Speaker 1: us to be the ones to get rid of Trump

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Speaker 1: for them because they can't do it themselves. Yeah, that

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Speaker 1: is a really interesting thing that I actually was thinking about.

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Speaker 1: It's like they think that somehow they can will him away.

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Speaker 1: But if they don't do this, now Trump will be

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Speaker 1: the nominee again. Maybe. I mean, I struggle between the

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Speaker 1: idea of knowing that we've kind of seen this movie

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Speaker 1: before and that we have sort of counted Trump out.

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Speaker 1: I had so many people after January sixth day. Man,

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Speaker 1: you know, I slept really good last night because as

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Speaker 1: terrible as that was, I know he's done. And of course,

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Speaker 1: like Trump's never done, Like there will be the nuclear

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Speaker 1: a you know, apocalypse, and there will be Trump and

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Speaker 1: cockroaches and that's it. And so I think, on one hand,

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Speaker 1: you have to you have to always take seriously the

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Speaker 1: idea that he's he's not done. He will find ways

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Speaker 1: to come back. They appear on the Republican side, like

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Speaker 1: he's just weak enough right now that it seems like

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Speaker 1: there's a number of people gearing up to run against him,

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Speaker 1: in which case you do end up in a sixteen

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Speaker 1: environment where you know, you have people split in the

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Speaker 1: field and Trump's over there with his plurality and his

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Speaker 1: burn it all down lane. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: also things are different in the sense that people have

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Speaker 1: learned a bunch of lessons, right, Like I just I

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Speaker 1: have a hard time seeing The reason I say maybe

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Speaker 1: is I have a hard time seeing Chris Christie and

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Speaker 1: Glenn junk In and Nikki Haley and a bunch of

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Speaker 1: them staying intil the bitter end against Trump as opposed

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Speaker 1: to dropping out and consolidating against him behind whoever was

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Speaker 1: the most seemed the most viable. After Republican primary, and

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Speaker 1: even the fact that I do think there will be

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Speaker 1: a Republican primary, um like there is a bunch of

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Speaker 1: shaking up that's going on. Things are very unsettled internally,

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Speaker 1: whether it's with the leadership of the r n C

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Speaker 1: McCarthy as speaker. You know, there's just like a lot

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Speaker 1: of of infighting, like internescent Republican warfare that we don't

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Speaker 1: know how it's going to turn out. But like I think,

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Speaker 1: I think it's recently as a month ago, you would

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Speaker 1: have heard some of us be concerned that there would

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Speaker 1: be no primary, like there would be no Trump would

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Speaker 1: just darncy, would just make it so it was him,

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Speaker 1: And I don't think any of us feel that way. Now,

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Speaker 1: is the my pillow guy going to be the head

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Speaker 1: of the r n C. You're well, you know it's

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Speaker 1: it's just from your lips to God's ears. Um, he

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Speaker 1: doesn't trust computers. You know that. You know I have

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Speaker 1: not followed his trajectory super closely. I think I can

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Speaker 1: say with relative confidence that he will not be the

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Speaker 1: RNC chairman. I do think you know how many how

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Speaker 1: many votes are there actually for RNC chairman. I think

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Speaker 1: it's like a hundred and sixty eight, very difficult to

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Speaker 1: claim that, like a roll call vote of a hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty eight people is rigged. The real challenge coming

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Speaker 1: from Lee Zelden, who was who just lost the governor's

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Speaker 1: race in New York, became much closer than people expected.

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Speaker 1: And so the idea though you're hearing the sort of

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Speaker 1: chorus rise up in the party where so you can't

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Speaker 1: lose this many times and keep your job. And so

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Speaker 1: the knives there are knives. I don't know whether enough

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Speaker 1: of them are out for Rana. I don't know whether

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Speaker 1: enough of them are out for McCarthy. But there are

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Speaker 1: challenges that are bubbling up that and the and the

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Speaker 1: charge is really like we lost on your watch, like

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Speaker 1: we need new blood, we need something different, and It's

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Speaker 1: weird because it's not a it's not like we need

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Speaker 1: Normi's back or we need to even be more trumpy.

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Speaker 1: It's more just like, you guys are the ones who

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Speaker 1: lost this for us, and so now we need new

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Speaker 1: people right now it seems like it. But it feels

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Speaker 1: like there's more of that towards And again, I'm no

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Speaker 1: fan of anyone of any of the people were talking

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Speaker 1: about here, but it seems like there's more knives out

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Speaker 1: for Rana than there is for Trump. And Trump is

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Speaker 1: actually like caused the party to lose all of these elections. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean institutionally among like elected Republicans, it's easier for them.

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Speaker 1: People still aren't Here's the thing. Here's the here's the

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Speaker 1: most fundamental thing. No one is sure yet where the

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Speaker 1: voters stand on Trump. So Trump's power emanates from his

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Speaker 1: hardcore base that is never going to leave him, right Like,

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Speaker 1: his leverage over the party is that he could take

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Speaker 1: his hardcore base and walk with them. They will follow

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Speaker 1: him anywhere, and he could cripple the Republican Party and

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Speaker 1: until like, I don't know that. Just let's talk about

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Speaker 1: Republicans in general think that Trump is actually weak with

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Speaker 1: voters that he no longer commands them with the cult

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Speaker 1: like sort of grip that he has. They're going to

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Speaker 1: be careful about turning on him, but they are going

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Speaker 1: to turn on a lot of his proxies. And that's

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now. But I do think Trump

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Speaker 1: is as weak as we've seen him. Like that is

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Speaker 1: the we should take solace in that. That being said,

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Speaker 1: anybody who thinks that it's just going to take care

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Speaker 1: of itself, he's weak and so we don't have to

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Speaker 1: do anything. We can just pretend like everything is normal

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Speaker 1: again and just be for somebody else and not have

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Speaker 1: to actively take him down is wrong, and that it

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Speaker 1: means that they have learned no lessons from the last

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Speaker 1: seven years, right, And I feel like that is true.

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Speaker 1: Like we are seeing the people who are criticizing Trump

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Speaker 1: here are like people who are running against him in

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Speaker 1: four Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, you know, former Vice president pants.

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Speaker 1: And then there is like the crew that always criticizes him,

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Speaker 1: and well they should, you know, the sort of Susan

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Speaker 1: Collins is the few kind of moral Republicans left in

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Speaker 1: the party. But then there's this sort of like the

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Speaker 1: people who are like the tastemakers, right, the kind of

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Speaker 1: Ted Cruises and Marco Rubios. I mean, hard to consider

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Speaker 1: Marco Rubio anything at this point, but you know those

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Speaker 1: people are still kind of silent. Yeah, right, everyone's waiting

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Speaker 1: to see which way the wind blows. And and this

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Speaker 1: is where going back to the January sixth moment, because

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Speaker 1: this is how I've been thinking about this. I keep looking.

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Speaker 1: I remember the January six sort of pocket before McCarthy

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Speaker 1: went down and resurrected Trump. I just remember that time

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Speaker 1: really well, and I think that's instructive, and I keep wondering,

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Speaker 1: are we at that kind of time? And the thing

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Speaker 1: that happened in that moment that I think is sort

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Speaker 1: of not happening right now is if you recall when

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Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham, basically a disavowed Trump after January six, he

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Speaker 1: went to the airport and a bunch of people mobbed

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Speaker 1: him at the airport, screamed at him, and they were

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Speaker 1: they were doing this, they were tracking down Republican elected

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Speaker 1: officials who were condemning Trump and they were just menacing them.

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Speaker 1: And like, that doesn't seem to be happening right now.

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Speaker 1: Like the normal thing of the way that the voters

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Speaker 1: and the local state parties and the Trump faithful all

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Speaker 1: work really hard to kind of keep regular elected Republicans

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Speaker 1: in line, Like some of the air is out of

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Speaker 1: their balloon with this last lost in no small part

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Speaker 1: because so many of their mouthpieces who have just been

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Speaker 1: running elections all just lost, many of them catastrophically, and

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Speaker 1: so like they don't have the same pep in their step,

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Speaker 1: you know, they don't have the same sense of bravado.

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Speaker 1: They don't have the sense that they're in charge necessarily anymore.

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Speaker 1: And so the Trump went as Kanye dinner is both

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Speaker 1: a sign that Trump is both relegating himself and being

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Speaker 1: relegated to like the absolute fringes of the right, like

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Speaker 1: that that is his base. He's trying to hold on

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Speaker 1: because that's why is he doing this, right. Trump knows

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Speaker 1: he's got to hold on to a very hardcore base

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Speaker 1: of voters. That's what gives him his leverage, and so

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Speaker 1: he's going to play to them. He's not thinking about

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Speaker 1: any kind of general election right now. He's thinking, how

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Speaker 1: do I hold on to a hardcore base of voters,

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Speaker 1: preferably the ones that are kind of dangerous and will

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Speaker 1: scare these other Republicans back in line, and he hopes

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Speaker 1: that he can play sort of like a bit of

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Speaker 1: a long game on that where then he gets indicted

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Speaker 1: by d J. He's got, you know, all these Republicans

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Speaker 1: are forced to kind of take his side against the FBI,

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Speaker 1: against the Department of Justice, and that he slowly kind

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Speaker 1: of works himself back into a dominant position. That's what

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Speaker 1: he trying to do while the other guys and they're

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Speaker 1: saying this right like off the record, on background, deep cover,

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Speaker 1: secret note, will never put our names on it. There

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Speaker 1: spokespeople are all saying things like yeah, de Santa Cianka,

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Speaker 1: they can wait for six months while Trump punches himself out.

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Speaker 1: And I just think we don't know will Trump pumped

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Speaker 1: himself out or will he regain a dominant position, Like

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Speaker 1: that's the question. I mean, it seems like we've seen

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Speaker 1: this movie before and he regains the dominant position. Yeah again.

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Speaker 1: I do think that the one difference now is that

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Speaker 1: Trump was able to come in as the new guy

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Speaker 1: and the exciting, dangerous, the guy who says all the

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Speaker 1: crazy ship that's right against a bunch of establishment normies

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Speaker 1: that people were really sick of. And the alternatives now

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Speaker 1: are all kind of made in Trump's image, Like when

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Speaker 1: I do the focuser, so I dose focus groups all

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Speaker 1: the time. Coming off the election, I've been mostly doing

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Speaker 1: independent swing voters, but prior to that did a lot

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Speaker 1: of Damn's, a lot of Republicans, a lot of Trump voters.

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Speaker 1: And the thing is is that when we always ask

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Speaker 1: do you want Trump to run again in two and

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Speaker 1: the number of people saying yes to that was really

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Speaker 1: high and early two, but has been like steadily dropping.

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Speaker 1: And what we're hearing is that they like Rhonda Santist.

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Speaker 1: It's always the number one name that comes up, like

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Speaker 1: with a bullet, not even close. And then people like

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Speaker 1: Christy Nome or Greg Abbott. Basically, anybody who's willing to

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Speaker 1: put migrants on a plane as a political stunt is

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Speaker 1: somebody that they feel like. You know, people liked Carry Lake, um,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about her. They like people from the Trump

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Speaker 1: cinematic universe, and that doesn't Pence is not from that universe, right,

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Speaker 1: Pence was a stop to the old way, And they

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Speaker 1: look at Marco Rubio or Nicky Haley or Mike Pence

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Speaker 1: and they think they're boring old guard. And so my

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Speaker 1: point is that the new people that they have as

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Speaker 1: alternatives are embody some of the things that they loved

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Speaker 1: about Trump, right, they are, they are mean, They are fighters. Fighters,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna put quotation marks are because that's the big

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Speaker 1: thing everybody says. They want someone who's going to fight.

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Speaker 1: They're not seen as establishment. They have all the right enemies,

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Speaker 1: hate the right people, the right people hate them, and

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Speaker 1: so there is emerging like a trumpy type of alternative

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Speaker 1: that I do think people having somewhere to go so

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Speaker 1: that they can still be on the team but not

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Speaker 1: be for Trump is an important new dynamic that is

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Speaker 1: making things somewhat different. But these people, they're playing by

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Speaker 1: Trump's rules. So the idea is your the thing they like.

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Speaker 1: It's almost as like they like the cruelty, right, as

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Speaker 1: Adam Server said, the cruelty is the point. But there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of other things besides cruelty that's kind of

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Speaker 1: like embodied in their right. They want somebody who's going

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Speaker 1: to own the lips. They want somebody who's gonna fight

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Speaker 1: the media, which, by the way they see wouldee those

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Speaker 1: two things as synonymous or like a redundancy. They want

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Speaker 1: somebody who's gonna take on their culture war fights. You know,

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Speaker 1: this is Russian expression, the appetite increases while you're eating.

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Speaker 1: And I think that what you have to understand about

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Speaker 1: Republican voters is Trump changed them in terms of what

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Speaker 1: they expect from elected officials, and so they want the

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Speaker 1: bar uncle brawling, they want the casual cruelty. Those things

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Speaker 1: are features. They are not bugs. And that's why even

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Speaker 1: somebody like a Glenn Yuncan, I'm not sure. You know,

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Speaker 1: he he went around and campaigned with Carrie Lake and

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Speaker 1: the election deniers, but like, I'm not sure that even

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Speaker 1: he has what it takes to get Republican base voters

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Speaker 1: off their couches to vote for him. I do think

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Speaker 1: it has to be somebody like to Santis or Abbott.

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Speaker 1: But but here's the thing. I'll just so I believe

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Speaker 1: that to be true. But I'll also just say these

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Speaker 1: new candidates are pretty untested. Like everyone's talking about Rhonda Santis,

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Speaker 1: but like I watched him in his debate with Charlie Chris,

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Speaker 1: who is not a particularly good candidate or politician, and

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Speaker 1: to Santis like which just wasn't very good. You know,

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Speaker 1: he like looks awkward, he smiles awkward his suits too big.

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Speaker 1: When he doesn't want to answer something, he just starts,

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Speaker 1: he kind of freezes and so and he's like he

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Speaker 1: has a notorious glass jaw as reporters down in Florida. No,

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Speaker 1: not good with donors. And so I just think things

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Speaker 1: are as wide open as we've ever seen them. And

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Speaker 1: yet you have to be really clear eyed about the

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Speaker 1: forces that Trump unleashed on the party and how he

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Speaker 1: changed everything. So people just want different stuff now, and

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Speaker 1: people like Mike Pence are like delusional to think that

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Speaker 1: this version like Mike Pence can't go to a Trump

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Speaker 1: rally without real security, Like they don't. They don't dislike him,

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Speaker 1: like they want to murder him. And so I just

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Speaker 1: I think that the the the idea that we're dealing

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Speaker 1: with like that that there's a big lane for Mike

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Speaker 1: Pence is sort of insane, but there is a lane

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Speaker 1: for alternatives. Well, this is very interesting. I really appreciate

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Speaker 1: you coming on and just talking about this. It is

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Speaker 1: honestly like it's just strange time and Republican politics, and

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Speaker 1: I'm really glad you came on and just explain this

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Speaker 1: test a little bit. Yeah, you bet, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Jacob Rubashian is an analyst at inside Election and welcome

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Speaker 1: too fast politics. Jacob, how's it going? You know, it's

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Speaker 1: just always an election, right. I feel like we're just

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Speaker 1: in a state of constant election. It never ends. And

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Speaker 1: once we're done with this one, uh, it's it's already

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Speaker 1: on scary as it may. See. So Georgia run off,

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Speaker 1: we got herschel Walker, father of many children, and the

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Speaker 1: Reverend Warnock talk to me about what the landscape looks like. Right,

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Speaker 1: So we've got this runoff in Georgia. Neither candidate got

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Speaker 1: to in November in the general election, and so Georgia says, well,

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Speaker 1: you've got to go to overtime in order to decide

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Speaker 1: who the actual winner is. Of course, Raphael Warnock ended

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Speaker 1: up with about forty nine point four percent, herschell Walker

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Speaker 1: forty eight point four percent, so heading into this both

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Speaker 1: candidates under fifty percent. Look, this is a really tight race.

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Speaker 1: Georgia is still a republican state, even as it's gotten

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Speaker 1: better for Democrats. We saw every single other Democrat on

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Speaker 1: the statewide ticket this year in Georgia lose by anywhere

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Speaker 1: from you know, really six to nine points. Raphael Warnock

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Speaker 1: was the only Democrat in Georgia actually to get more

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Speaker 1: votes than his opponents, So this is still a Republican state.

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Speaker 1: It is an uphill climb for any Democrat, but there

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Speaker 1: are reasons for Warnock and his allies to feel a

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Speaker 1: little optimistic about how things are. With about a week

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Speaker 1: to go before the last day of voting in the

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Speaker 1: runoff election, let's talk about what the early voting looks like.

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Speaker 1: What does the early voting look like? So early voting

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Speaker 1: has been robust in Georgia thus far, but I think

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Speaker 1: it's important to remember that with this new election law

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Speaker 1: that was passed last year in Georgia, one of the

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Speaker 1: things that they did was they changed the runoff from

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Speaker 1: a two month period. Right in te we had an

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Speaker 1: election in November and then it was two months before

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Speaker 1: voters returned to the polls on January five to cast

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Speaker 1: their votes in the runoff, and this time around, they

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Speaker 1: shortened that runoff period by a month. So what that

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Speaker 1: meant is that they also shortened the period available for

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Speaker 1: early voting. So whereas early voting used to be much

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Speaker 1: longer for Georgia voters, now it's literally just this one week.

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Speaker 1: This week plus after some litigation the Saturday and Sunday

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Speaker 1: of last weekend before Thanksgiving, so yes, on on Monday,

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Speaker 1: the States set kind of the single day record for

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Speaker 1: early voting, with just over three hundred thousand people casting

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Speaker 1: early ballots on Monday. But that's a little deceptive just

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Speaker 1: because the early voting period has been so condensed. I

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Speaker 1: think the Democrats have a lot to be happy about here.

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Speaker 1: They have seen the black share of the vote in

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Speaker 1: early voting above, which is a good sign for Democrats.

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Speaker 1: They are seeing heavy turnout in kind of the democratic

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Speaker 1: areas of the state, and particularly in that Saturday voting question.

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Speaker 1: The county has had an option of whether to allow

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Speaker 1: voters to cast ballots on Saturday, and what we ended

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Speaker 1: up seeing happened was that it was mostly the Democratic

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Speaker 1: leaning counties in the state that gave those voters the

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Speaker 1: option to vote, and a lot of the Republican leaning

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Speaker 1: counties decided not to do Saturday voting at all. So

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Speaker 1: Democrats had kind of a free head start on the

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Speaker 1: early voting period that has contributed to the positive numbers.

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Speaker 1: But you know, as we've seen in races across the

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Speaker 1: country over the last two years, early vote is just

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Speaker 1: one component of the overall picture, and with voting methods

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Speaker 1: so polarized these days, with Democrats so clearly favoring early vote,

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Speaker 1: with Republicans so clearly favoring election day vote, there's still

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Speaker 1: a lot of information we don't have, and it it

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Speaker 1: means that Republicans still can make up the gap if

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Speaker 1: they get massive election day turnout. I'm going to push

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Speaker 1: back on that because and I think you're right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: everything you're saying is right, But it does seem to

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Speaker 1: me that Republicans have really been sort of hurting themselves

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Speaker 1: by I mean, here's a great example. These are Republican districts.

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Speaker 1: They're making it so they can't vote on Saturday, right,

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Speaker 1: and they're saying like, don't vote early, vote the day up.

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Speaker 1: And so yes, theoretically they should make up the ground.

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Speaker 1: But like I'm hearing a lot, Like I've done a

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Speaker 1: lot of interviews with people where they've said, you know,

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Speaker 1: we were able to bank votes for you know, such

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Speaker 1: and such a number of days, so we had this

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Speaker 1: huge advantage when it came to do you see what

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Speaker 1: I'm saying. No, absolutely, I think you're absolutely right that

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Speaker 1: it is. It is. It is an incredible advantage for

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Speaker 1: Democrats that they have this operation, that they have the

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Speaker 1: motivation among their voters to bank those votes early. It

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Speaker 1: means not only are you having votes that you can

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Speaker 1: count on, but it means you can direct your resources

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Speaker 1: in the final weeks of the race, in this case,

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Speaker 1: the final week of the race to voters that you know,

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Speaker 1: haven't cast their ballots yet. Right, You can be much

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Speaker 1: more precise about who you're getting to show up on

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Speaker 1: election Day. So I don't mean to say that this

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Speaker 1: is this is a net neutral environment for Republicans when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the early vote. I think that I

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Speaker 1: talked to Republics all the time who say, why don't

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Speaker 1: our voters, you know, why don't our voters vote early?

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Speaker 1: Why don't they understand? Why why don't the campaigns understand?

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Speaker 1: You know, I was talking to a Florida Republican today

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Speaker 1: and they were saying, you know, in Florida, Republicans vote early,

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Speaker 1: and that's how we do things and we win all

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Speaker 1: the time. And why don't Republicans in the rest of

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Speaker 1: the country understand that this is actually a good thing?

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Speaker 1: And of course we know why. It's because Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: decided that early voting was was his enemy and so

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Speaker 1: he effective behavior in that way, but certainly it places

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00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 1: an immense amount of pressure on Georgia Republicans to show

430
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 1: up on election day. My point is just that it

431
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't lock it in for Democrats, right right, right,

432
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: right exactly? Is Georgia a state where they count the

433
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: early vote later. That's a good question. I don't know

434
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: off the top of my head where the Georgia rules

435
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 1: are now, because then you have those dumps, right, what

436
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 1: Trump calls the dumps. Trump has decided he is not

437
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 1: going to go on the campaign trip with the candidate

438
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: that he picked, which I think is interesting. I mean,

439
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: clearly the thinking is that he is poison right. Yeah, Look,

440
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 1: this has not been a good stretch for Trump by

441
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 1: any definition of the word. You know, starting out with

442
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: the results of the mid term elections disappointing for Republicans,

443
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 1: and we saw a lot of these Trump backed candidates

444
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 1: lose close and competitive races. So Republicans were always sour

445
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: on him in general. Coming out of the mid terms.

446
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: You add in this insane breaking of bread with white

447
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: supremacists with Kanye that has only further I think some

448
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: of the Republican hesitation, especially at kind of the the

449
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: elite levels, right, the people who can actually pick up

450
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 1: the phone and say please come to Georgia or please

451
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 1: stay away from Georgia. Those are people who are looking

452
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: more askance at the former president. And then the final

453
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,479
Speaker 1: thing you have to remember is that Georgia is somewhat

454
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 1: unique among states, and particularly Georgia Republicans seem to be

455
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: a little unique among Republican voters and how much they

456
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: don't care about Trump, right herschel Walker was really the

457
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: exception in the primaries earlier this year, where he was

458
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: the Trump backed candidate who didn't really face any major opposition.

459
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: That Trump went into a lot of these primaries, endorsed

460
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 1: candidates all up and down the statewide ticket and in

461
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: several congressional districts, and by and large almost all them lost.

462
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 1: Right George, Georgia voters seemed to really have moved on Georgia.

463
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: Republican voters seemed to have really moved on from Trump

464
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: in a way that Republican voters in other states haven't. So,

465
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: you know, I think there's kind of the macro concerns

466
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 1: about Trump as a weight on the Republican party, and

467
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: then there's the more Georgia specific question of just like

468
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: voters here don't seem to care about him all that much.

469
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: You know, I think they care a lot more about

470
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp. They like Brian Kemp a lot more than

471
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 1: they like Trump. And so when the Walker campaign is

472
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: trying to do that calculus, they'd rather you know, they'll

473
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: trade a rally with Kemp instead of a rally for

474
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 1: with Trump any any day of the week. So you

475
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,959
Speaker 1: have Kemp, who never really wanted Walker to be the candidate,

476
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: out on the stump with Walker, and you have Trump,

477
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: who picked Walker, hiding at Mara Lago exactly. It is

478
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: a reflection of the former presidents diminished status in the state,

479
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 1: and it's a reflection of the ascendency of Brian Kemp.

480
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: You know, I think that we sometimes forget right that

481
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,479
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp won a very very narrow race in eighteen

482
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 1: and for much of this cycle it looked like he

483
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: was in a very tight race against Stacy Abrahams in

484
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: that rematch, and ultimately, you know, he wins by over

485
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: seven points. He has one of the largest victories. He

486
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: and Brad Raefensberger end up kind of at the running

487
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,400
Speaker 1: at the top of the ticket for Republicans in Georgia.

488
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,239
Speaker 1: They he is really popular in this state. He has

489
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: triangulated really well, even though politically speaking he's quite conservative, right,

490
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: I mean, one of those things he may be being

491
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 1: rewarded for is that he and Brad both refused to

492
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 1: find the votes that Trump wanted them to find. Right. No, absolutely,

493
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: he did the right thing in the wake of the

494
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: election and refused to overturn the results or fraudulently, you know,

495
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: find those eleven thousand, however, many votes that Trump wanted

496
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: them to find in order to secure him the win

497
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: in Georgia. And for that, for that one very important action,

498
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: but but again kind of limited politically to to this

499
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: one question of election integrity. Brian Kemp has won the

500
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt from a wide swath of Georgia

501
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: voters who otherwise might not align with him politically. Do

502
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 1: you think there are split ticket Kemp war Knock voters?

503
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: There have to be right, Absolutely, there are quite a

504
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: few split ticket Kemp Warnock voters. And if you look

505
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 1: at them, they are concentrated in the Atlanta metro area,

506
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 1: and they are concentrated among white voters, college education aided voters,

507
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: and independence Raphael Warnock won Independence by sixteen points in Stacy.

508
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 1: Abrams lost them by I believe one point. That's a

509
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: really interesting statistic. Yeah, yeah, and actually sorry about that.

510
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: It's it's Rafael Warnock one Independence by eleven points and

511
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: Abrams lost them by one point, but still a major gap.

512
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: If you look at the places where Warnock overperformed Abrams,

513
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: independent voters, moderate voters, Atlanta media market, and white voters

514
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: with college degrees, Yes, super interesting. You know, they did

515
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 1: pretty equally Warnock and Abrams among black voters. Among voters

516
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 1: who had never attended college, it was these kind of

517
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: more educated suburbanites who decided to go with Kemp but

518
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 1: also went with Warnock. We will know on December seventh

519
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: who has won, and it's possible we will have Democrats

520
00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: having fifty one Steeds Republicans having forty. Yeah, and I

521
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: think we we will know relatively quickly. Looking back at

522
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: the one runoff, that January five runoff was more Knock

523
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 1: one his race against Kelly Leffler by about two points.

524
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: That race was called around noon of the next day.

525
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: Of course, you know, something else happened January six that

526
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 1: prevented significant media coverage of that race call, but that

527
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: that's about when it happened. And so I would anticipate that,

528
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: barring any really unforeseen circumstances, we will know fairly quickly,

529
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 1: either late on the night of December six, or or

530
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 1: sometime in the morning or mid morning December seven, who

531
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: has won this race. And and yeah, that will determine

532
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: whether Democrats, you know, maintain this fifty fifty power sharing

533
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: arrangement that they've had for the last two years, or

534
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 1: if they have a true majority with nine And now

535
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: what are you looking at after that? I mean, are

536
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: there any specials that will flip the House? So this

537
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: is this is this kind of crazy question, right we

538
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: we've we've had such a narrow majory already in the

539
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: House for the last two years, theoretically a four seat majority,

540
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: but at times it's been down to as narrow as

541
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: a two seat majority for Democrats. Republicans are now in

542
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: this position where they have a four seat majority kind

543
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: of split. But of course we've already seen unfortunately, one

544
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: member of Congress has already passed away. Last night, Donald

545
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: mckeachen from the state of Virginia died of coal erector cancer.

546
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: Now that's a safe Democratic district and so his seat

547
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: will be filled by a Democrat whenever that special election

548
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: takes place. But it does mean Democrats are already operating

549
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: with one fewer vote. You know, when the House comes

550
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: into session, it will be four hundred and thirty four members,

551
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: not four thirty five. So it will be interesting to

552
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: see who leaves, right. There always members who leave halfway

553
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: through their term. Generally they come from the minority party

554
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: because when faced with the option of being in the

555
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: minority or taking a seven figure job on K Street,

556
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: people make the decision that they want to make. But

557
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: you know, Death's job offers that are too good to

558
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: pass up. All of these things contribute to a significant

559
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: amount of churn in every Congress, and when the majority

560
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: is so narrow, yeah, there's always the possibility for absolute chaos,

561
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 1: or even more possibility for chaos than there already is

562
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: with such an evenly divided chamber. So interesting, Jacob, this

563
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: is really, really, really interesting. I hope you will come

564
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: back when we begin another season of madness. Yeah, absolutely,

565
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: what're be happy to Yeah, we got to talk about

566
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: the primaries and the new DNC cities and the oh God,

567
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 1: and emotionally exhausting. Von Winget Sanchez is a democracy reporter

568
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: at the Washington Post. Welcome to Fast Politics. You are

569
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: in Arizona, which is like another planet right now where

570
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: you work for the Washington Post. Talk to me about

571
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: what is happening there. Well, we are through the election,

572
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: but we have one county out of fifteen that has

573
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: decided not to certify its election results. They have delayed

574
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: repeatedly their vote to certify. They blew past the deadline

575
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: of November and they have set up another meeting for

576
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: later in the week. They're being taken to court by

577
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who is trying to

578
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 1: force them through a court order to certify these elections

579
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: election results or risk you know, getting sixty thousand plus

580
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 1: votes thrown out and not included in the states tally,

581
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: which could affect the results of some of these really

582
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: tight statewide races. Explained to me what this district is like. Sure,

583
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: it is in southeast Arizona. A lot of people might

584
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,959
Speaker 1: be familiar with the town of Bisbee. It's a quaint

585
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: little town southeast of Metro Phoenix. It's near the border.

586
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: Beautiful area, very very read, very Republican. There are three

587
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 1: members of the Board of Supervisors down there to our Republicans,

588
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: one is a Democrat and English. She's not on board

589
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: with delaying this thing. She wants the board to follow

590
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: its ministerial legal duty of certifying these election results, and

591
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 1: she very clearly has been met with quite a bit

592
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: of resistance, despite being advised by the county attorney down

593
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: there and various other people that you know, they need

594
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: to do their jobs. You tweeted out a video yesterday.

595
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: Explained to me, so this's a very red county in Arizona.

596
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 1: They had a kind of meeting yesterday. Explained this meeting.

597
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: So this was up in Metro Phoenix. This was the

598
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 1: Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. So this is a different

599
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:56,959
Speaker 1: board of supervisors. But there are people who sort of

600
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: believe kind of the same thing. Right in Maricopa County,

601
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: which is the county home to Metro Phoenix and most

602
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: of the state's voters, they were under a lot of

603
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: pressure to not certify, as a lot of these more

604
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: rural counties have been under. It's unclear if it's a

605
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: coordinated attempt and who behind the scenes is really pushing

606
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: for these guys to not certify very publicly. Though Republican candidates,

607
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: including Carry Lake, who was projected to lose her race

608
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 1: for governor very narrowly by about seventeen thousand votes, they've

609
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: been on board with this thing and been, you know,

610
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: essentially saying that because of problems that took place in

611
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: Maricopa County on election day, which were very real and

612
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 1: which affected about a third of polling locations, that you know,

613
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: Arizona needed to have a revote and it needed to

614
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: do its elections all over again, and that these results

615
00:33:56,160 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: couldn't be trusted because lots of people around Metro Phoenix

616
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: heard about these problems, either on the radio or on

617
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: social media, or when they pulled up to polling sites

618
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: there were lines, and therefore their supporters were suppressed, that

619
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: their voters were somehow disenfranchised and not allowed to vote,

620
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: and so they're calling for a revote. The Maricopa County

621
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: Board of Supervisors has noted repeatedly that no one was

622
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 1: denied the right to vote, that there were various options

623
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 1: that people could have used to vote, including sliding their

624
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: ballots into what's called drawer three. And it's a little

625
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: slot and it's been used for decades, and if the

626
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: tabulator couldn't read your ballot after you had it printed out,

627
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: then you would put it in an envelope and you

628
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 1: would just deposit it into essentially what is like a dropbox,

629
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 1: or you could go to another polling location, and so

630
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 1: there were a lot of a lot of different options.

631
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: The election wasn't per effect, they acknowledge, but no one

632
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 1: was denied the right to vote, so they went ahead.

633
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: Will you just explain what the sort of thing that

634
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: happened was with the machines. So what happened on election

635
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 1: day about twenty minutes into voting, So around six twenty am,

636
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: the first call comes in from a polling location. They're

637
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: having problems with their tabulators. These tabulators are set on

638
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: top of essentially what is a blue plastic box. It

639
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: looks like a drop box. And what was happening and

640
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: what continued to happen throughout the day at about seventy

641
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: polling locations, was the printers that print out ballots for voters.

642
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 1: After you check in, you give them your I D.

643
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: The machines are able to recognize what area you're coming

644
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: from and therefore are able to print the races relevant

645
00:35:55,600 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: to your area. These printers that are responsible for you

646
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: see in your ballots did not print ink dark enough

647
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: to be read by the tabulators, and so the printer

648
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: settings had to be adjusted at all of these polling

649
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: locations in order for the tabulators to properly work. That

650
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: caused lines backups at several voting locations. And you have

651
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: to keep in mind that, especially in a place like Arizona,

652
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: Republican activists Republican candidates for two years, led by former

653
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: President Donald Trump, have stoked mistrust in the early voting system,

654
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: have told people not to vote by mail and have

655
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: told people to show up and vote in person. That

656
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 1: caused about two hundred and ninety thousand people to show

657
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 1: up at polling locations on election day to vote in person.

658
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: That is the largest number of voters in person on

659
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: election day that we have ever seen. And so in

660
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: some ways this was a problem exacerbated by the messaging

661
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 1: around voting and the instructions of these Republican candidates and

662
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 1: activists for giving their own voters, which was don't mail

663
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 1: your ballots back, show up on election day, drop them off,

664
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,919
Speaker 1: or vote in person and get your ballot printed out.

665
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: And that was a big gamble, and it relied on

666
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: everything working completely properly, everything going on smoothly, and we

667
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 1: all know that that just didn't happen. So in a way,

668
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: Republicans created this, messed themselves by encouraging their people not

669
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: to early vote. I mean, obviously they didn't create it,

670
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: but they made it worse, right, Yeah, they made it worse.

671
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,919
Speaker 1: And then once the problems became really clear, so about

672
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 1: an hour into voting, when you started to have a

673
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: lot of these printers go down, and the lines were

674
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: getting longer, videos were starting to be posted on so

675
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 1: social media. You had a lot of people instructing voters,

676
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:10,240
Speaker 1: Republicans instructing voters to not put their ballots in drawer three,

677
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: that somehow drawer three, this little slot in the draw box,

678
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: couldn't be trusted. And so then you've got a lot

679
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 1: of voters who just already don't trust the system. They're

680
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 1: being told not to use the method that has been

681
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: used for a long time, this backup method, they're telling

682
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 1: them not to use it. They exacerbated the problem. The

683
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:36,760
Speaker 1: problems did exist, but they exacerbated them. So interesting, So

684
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 1: now what happens Now you have most of the county's right,

685
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: you have fourteen counties willing to certify, and this is

686
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:49,840
Speaker 1: not so what happens now? So Secretary of State Katie Hobbs,

687
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 1: she's a Democrat and she beat Carrie Lake in the

688
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 1: governor's race. She filed a lawsuit late Monday in Coaches

689
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: Can me. She's asking a judge to force the county

690
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: to certify its elections. The state was set to certify

691
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 1: all of the election results on December five. It's unclear

692
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: if they're going to be able to make that deadline.

693
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 1: December eight is the last drop dead deadline that the

694
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 1: state has to certify all of its election results were

695
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 1: sort of an uncharted territories and the scenario sort of

696
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: the worst case scenario that could happen, especially for Republicans,

697
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 1: is that Governor Doocey, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, Attorney

698
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:43,240
Speaker 1: General Mark Bernovich, and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court,

699
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: Robert Brunell, all gather and they certify the results, but

700
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 1: only a fourteen of the fifteen counties, throwing out all

701
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: of Coaches County's votes because they haven't been certified. And

702
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: a lot of attorneys that I've talked to expect to

703
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: happen if we enter into that scenario is someone in

704
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 1: Coaches County will file a lawsuit claiming that they have

705
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: been disenfranchised, that their vote has been disenfranchised, and we'll

706
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: see what the courts say then. I mean, at some point,

707
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: perhaps a court does decide to um force the board

708
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: or act for the board to certify those votes down

709
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:33,439
Speaker 1: in Coaches County. And the problem for Republicans down there,

710
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 1: remember this is a very Republican district and a lot

711
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 1: of wins for Republicans rested and came in part because

712
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: of those votes in Coaches County. We've got an attorney

713
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 1: General's race that is going to a recount. Only five

714
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: and ten votes separate the Republican and the Democrat. So

715
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: you can see that margin probably getting even bigger in

716
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 1: favor of the Democrat. We have a us HOW race

717
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 1: that includes voters from that area, a very close race

718
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 1: in which a Republican flipped a seat. That race could

719
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,439
Speaker 1: be affected. We have the statewide school superintendent race where

720
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: Tom Horne had narrowly won and ousted the incumbent Democrat.

721
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 1: That race could be affected. So again, it would not

722
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 1: be in Republican's best interests to to not certify these votes.

723
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: The other thing that could happen is that these members,

724
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 1: these two members of the Bord of Supervisors who refused

725
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 1: to certify the results down there, could be held personally

726
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:44,399
Speaker 1: liable for legal bills that could arise as a part

727
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 1: of this. You know, we had a supervisor up in

728
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: north west Arizona in Mohave County. They kept delaye certification

729
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 1: and finally they decided to go ahead and move move

730
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 1: forward on Monday to meet their deadline. And what one

731
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 1: of the Republican supervisors said up there was, you know,

732
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: I'm going to go ahead and vote for this, but

733
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,799
Speaker 1: I'm voting for it under dressed because I've been told

734
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: that I could be arrested if I don't do my duty.

735
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 1: That's a real possibility for these supervisors down in Cochise County.

736
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 1: There is uh state statute that essentially says that if

737
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 1: elected officials fail or refuse to perform duties, that they

738
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 1: could be found guilty of a class ree misdemeanor. And

739
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 1: that's what they're facing. Basically, Republicans are again creating problems

740
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: for themselves. They seem to be yes, I mean, it's

741
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: just sort of amazing, right, like they could end up

742
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 1: having themselves thrown in jail because they refused to participate

743
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 1: in something that's their job, right, right, And remember what

744
00:42:55,040 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 1: happened after Trump lost Arizona again very very narrowly by

745
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 1: ten thousand, four d fifty seven votes. We had to

746
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: litigate that for a year through the Cyberninches audit, and

747
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 1: that didn't help Republicans. It exacerbated the election to nihilism issue.

748
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: It divided the party at a time that they really

749
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 1: needed to be united. And ultimately this issue cost them

750
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 1: so many statewide seats and they have only maintained very

751
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 1: narrow control of the state legislature. It's not a good issue.

752
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 1: They know it. Off the record and on background conversations.

753
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: They all know that their messaging on this issue is

754
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: a problem and they need to pivot. They need to

755
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: pivot quickly, and we'll see what that pivot looks like.

756
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,800
Speaker 1: But they need to get ahead of game on early voting.

757
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 1: Republicans in Arizona created early voting many decades ago. We've

758
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 1: been a pioneer in early voting for a long time,

759
00:43:56,440 --> 00:44:00,919
Speaker 1: you know, John McCain, John Kyle, Jeff fly a dog

760
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 1: do see Jan Brewer. I mean all of these candidates

761
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 1: used the system and advocated for that system and one

762
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 1: by that system. And it wasn't until eighteen when Donald

763
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 1: Trump didn't understand how votes were counted in Arizona that

764
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: he started to really sort of stoke this distrust in

765
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: the state's voting systems. And that's the same cycle that

766
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:32,280
Speaker 1: South Heirston Cinema beat Republican Martha McSally And ever since then,

767
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 1: the election denialism here has gotten only worse. As we

768
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 1: can see, telling your voters to not vote early, to

769
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:43,879
Speaker 1: not trust the mail system, and to not trust a protracted,

770
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: prolonged vote counting process that is accurate has worked against them.

771
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 1: This is like incredible stuff. It's just like Trump is

772
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: um in action. It's amazing. Do you think that Carrie

773
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,280
Speaker 1: Lake will go quietly now? She's not going to go quietly.

774
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: There will be more lawsuits. The war room over in

775
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: the Scottsdale Resort has been disbanded. Well, she had a

776
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 1: war room in the Scottsdale Resort. Yes, all the Republicans

777
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: were working out of a war room for a couple

778
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 1: of weeks and a lot of stuff went down in

779
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 1: that war room. What hotel was it in Scottsdale McCormick.

780
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: Ratify if I recall correctly, and the infrastructure has gone.

781
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 1: The people who for weeks thought that there was you know,

782
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 1: with the next drop of ballots they would favor her

783
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: that you know, the next legal argument would somehow favor Republicans.

784
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 1: You know a lot of these people are gone and

785
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: they're they're not working on these cases. The funding for

786
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: some of these legal lawsuits has disappeared. It's I think

787
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 1: you have a situation where you have some candidates who

788
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 1: are growing increasingly angry, and there's a lot of second

789
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 1: guessing about their strategies, and we will see a lot

790
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: of what we saw from from Donald Trump post really

791
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 1: start to grip the state on a on a very

792
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: local level for a long time. So interesting. Thank you

793
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 1: so much. I really appreciate you coming on. Thank you,

794
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: Molly John Fast, Jesse Cannon. You know, I don't like

795
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 1: seeing anyone say anything anti Semitic, but I do love

796
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,760
Speaker 1: do you know there can't be a but it has

797
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 1: to me just period. I don't, but go on continue.

798
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: It's the squirre big It's so good. I think you're

799
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: referring to House Minority leader, the man who dreams of speakership.

800
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:03,320
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy defending Donald Trump's meeting with a white supremacist,

801
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: saying that could have happened to anyone, you know, could

802
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: have happened to anyone who among us has not hung

803
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 1: out with a white supremacist. Not me, But the list

804
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: just goes on and on. There's so many of them

805
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: that are just trying to cover this up. Marshall Blackburn's

806
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 1: ducking questions on it. Yeah, in fact, I happened to

807
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: have a handy list right here of some of the

808
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 1: Republicans who have been too cowardly to say anything bad

809
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:41,360
Speaker 1: about Trump meeting with a neo Nazi. They did not

810
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 1: see it coming. Florida Governor Ron de Santa's silent Senator

811
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 1: Marcia Blackburn, silent, Ted Cruz Or as Trump likes to say,

812
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 1: Lion ted silent, Lindsey Graham, Ron and On, Mike Lee

813
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 1: and Rand, Paul, Alice Stafadix, Steve Scalise, all of those

814
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 1: silent members of the Republican Party are our moment of funckery.

815
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

816
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,720
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to your the best minds

817
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: in politics. Makes sense of all this chaos. If you

818
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

819
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.