Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from
Speaker 2: the show.
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Speaker 5: That's CPAC conference was underway in Texas this week. The focus,
Speaker 5: of course, was what its Republican Party looked like post
Speaker 5: Donald Trump, but there was also something of great conversation
Speaker 5: there had to do with Iran warrens where all of
Speaker 5: that is headed and especially top of mind for attendees there,
Speaker 5: including Iranian Americans.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 6: I am fank you on, but I am your citizen.
Speaker 7: Also, maybe do you think why US should be in war? Actually,
Speaker 7: I am going to say, is the best time to
Speaker 7: make America great again? And Iran can be the biggest
Speaker 7: part of the puzzle to be disheld but first we
Speaker 7: have to need a freedom.
Speaker 5: David Ben sorry, one of the attendees there at that
Speaker 5: SEAPEC conference in grape Vine, Sexas. Jeff Mason was there
Speaker 5: covering it for us. He's a White House correspondent at
Speaker 5: Bloomberg News. Jeff, great to have you with us once again.
Speaker 5: Talk a bit about the degree to which this conflict
Speaker 5: was reverberating around the halls of that gay Lord hotel
Speaker 5: in Texas. How much was it front of mine for
Speaker 5: those who are participating there.
Speaker 8: I think it sort of overshadowed a large part of
Speaker 8: the conference. Honestly, as we've talked about earlier, the support
Speaker 8: for President Trump is still extremely high. But the fact
Speaker 8: that the president went back on a promise with this war,
Speaker 8: the fact that the war has gone on for several
Speaker 8: weeks now, and the fact that fuel prices are up
Speaker 8: with no particular site or end in sight are all
Speaker 8: things that are that are concerning to.
Speaker 6: People at SEAPACK.
Speaker 8: Even if they continue to say they support the president,
Speaker 8: they support the war, they're just question marks about it.
Speaker 8: And the question marks are both about those promises that
Speaker 8: we that I just mentioned and about the impact that
Speaker 8: it's going to have politically.
Speaker 6: Going into the November elections.
Speaker 2: And Jeff, President Trump didn't speak at SEAPAC this year.
Speaker 2: Is that significant? Why did they make that choice? And
Speaker 2: did attendees notice, do they care?
Speaker 9: Well?
Speaker 8: I think I don't think that was a choice by
Speaker 8: SEAPAC organizers. I think they would have been delighted to have
Speaker 8: President Trump come. And there was there was even a
Speaker 8: little bit of rumor milling while I was there that
Speaker 8: they were still trying to get a big name speaker
Speaker 8: like Vice President Vance or Secretary of State Rubio to come.
Speaker 6: I'm sure they would have been delighted if the President
Speaker 6: had come.
Speaker 8: All of that said, there's a lot of forgiveness for
Speaker 8: President Trump in that room, and that would apply to
Speaker 8: both a lack of a tenants as well as breaking
Speaker 8: some promises that he made as a candidate.
Speaker 5: Jeff, You've covered a number of these over the years,
Speaker 5: and I'm curious sort of how much energy and enthusiasm
Speaker 5: there was this one compared to one's past. They used
Speaker 5: to be in Washington, d C. Then they were in Maryland,
Speaker 5: a little ways away from the capital. Now we have
Speaker 5: it taking place in Texas. Does it retain the level
Speaker 5: of energy and enthusiasm among participants that it had in
Speaker 5: the past.
Speaker 6: You know, there was plenty of energy there.
Speaker 8: I mean, it's interesting in terms of people watching you
Speaker 8: go and people wearing red.
Speaker 6: Maga hats or black Maga hats.
Speaker 8: I spoke to one woman who was dressed up in
Speaker 8: a Statue of Liberty costume, all of whom were very
Speaker 8: happy to talk about their love of the president and
Speaker 8: their hate of communism and socialism and the other buzzwords
Speaker 8: that SEAPAC very successfully has associated with the left. You know,
Speaker 8: it is You're right, it was in Dallas as opposed
Speaker 8: to in the DC area. But there's a lot of
Speaker 8: conservative energy in Dallas for sure, and people from all
Speaker 8: over the country who came.
Speaker 6: So yeah, I didn't notice a dip in energy.
Speaker 8: I just certainly noticed at least some concern, and that
Speaker 8: would include at the very top of the organizer level.
Speaker 8: I spoke to Matt Slap concern about the impact of
Speaker 8: this war on the elections. And when I spoke to Matt,
Speaker 8: he discussed the fact that this is an interesting and
Speaker 8: tricky political time and the impact on Republicans and the
Speaker 8: impact on the MAGA faithful when it comes to those elections, which,
Speaker 8: as you all know, I love to talk about is looming.
Speaker 8: So they're thinking about that, but they're also again using
Speaker 8: they use their time in Dallas to talk about the
Speaker 8: things that they care about, both in the US and
Speaker 8: globally in terms of the conservative movement.
Speaker 2: Jeff, we just got about a minute or so left,
Speaker 2: but I do want to let you talk a little
Speaker 2: bit about those midterm elections that you hold so near
Speaker 2: and dear to your heart.
Speaker 6: Maybe I love it.
Speaker 2: Let's do it better you than me, buddy, all right,
Speaker 2: So Steapack is the diehards. Of course, these are like
Speaker 2: the most loyal people to the president, and as you said,
Speaker 2: they're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 2: But as you talk to Republicans at large, maybe outside
Speaker 2: of that bubble just slightly, are they getting concerned about
Speaker 2: things like oil prices, about how long this conflict in
Speaker 2: Iran is going, especially as we are coming up on
Speaker 2: those midterms. There's always another election around the corner, but
Speaker 2: this one, the President keeps saying, you know, oil prices
Speaker 2: are a blip. It's going to wind down, it's going
Speaker 2: to resolve. It doesn't seem to be going as quickly
Speaker 2: as he would like.
Speaker 8: I think that's right, and I you know, it's it's
Speaker 8: easy for a political reporter to talk about the next election,
Speaker 8: but this next election is so critical for President Trump.
Speaker 8: It will have so many implications for the second half
Speaker 8: of his second term, in terms of legislation, in terms
Speaker 8: of policy priorities, in terms of the potential investigations that
Speaker 8: Democrats would launch if Democrats take over the House and
Speaker 8: potentially the Senate. I think the risks that you just highlighted,
Speaker 8: Christina are spot on. I think those risks are present
Speaker 8: both within the Democratic and independent base, but also among
Speaker 8: the magni the magna folks who he will need to
Speaker 8: go out and vote as well.
Speaker 5: Jeff Mason, who covers the White House forests and the
Speaker 5: Seapac conference, he was there over the course last week.
Speaker 3: Jeff Mason, thank you very much for the time.
Speaker 2: Thanks Jeff for you soon.
Speaker 3: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 2: Right after this, Emily Gregory went from owning a fitness
Speaker 2: center for pregnant and postpartum women to defeating a Trump
Speaker 2: back Republican for state representative. The special election surprise victory
Speaker 2: is raising eyebrows, not only because she's a Democrat who
Speaker 2: won a conservative district because she represents marri Lago and
Speaker 2: her most famous resident is, of course, President Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is Florida State Representative Emily Gregory. Emily,
Speaker 2: I understand that you're also a first time politician. You've
Speaker 2: not run for anything before. What made you want to
Speaker 2: get involved and why did you think you could win?
Speaker 9: Yes, so this has all been a whirlwind. I filed
Speaker 9: last summer, just not happy with the representation we were
Speaker 9: getting out of Tallahassee. I felt that for years they
Speaker 9: have not been focused on the issues my friends and
Speaker 9: my neighbors and I are talking about that we need
Speaker 9: solutions to, and they're focused on distractions. And I thought, hey,
Speaker 9: if those dummies, wehy not.
Speaker 2: Morning TV, but we can allowed dummies.
Speaker 5: Yes, go ahead, let me ask you about what you
Speaker 5: did focus on. You mentioned some of those issues that
Speaker 5: you and your friends were talking about, indeed, cared about Christina,
Speaker 5: bringing up perhaps your most famous resident constituent.
Speaker 6: How much did you over the course.
Speaker 5: Of the campaign talk about him, focus on him, address
Speaker 5: national policies, visa VI him. How large did Donald Trump
Speaker 5: loom in the campaign that you waged.
Speaker 9: I would say he did not loom large, not because
Speaker 9: it's not innate, but because it's outside the scope of
Speaker 9: the state House. And one thing our campaign is very
Speaker 9: strong on is staying disciplined on the issues, So right
Speaker 9: you go. I went into the campaign with an idea
Speaker 9: of what issues were affecting me most, and I really
Speaker 9: really listened in all the conversations we had knocking on
Speaker 9: doors and at campaign events to what are the biggest
Speaker 9: issues at the state level that are affecting District eighty
Speaker 9: seven voters, And we heard housing and healthcare and public education,
Speaker 9: so that we were laser focused on those issues.
Speaker 2: It's very tempting, especially those of us who call the politics,
Speaker 2: to extrapolate from one race and try to make it
Speaker 2: a trend and try to broaden it out. But I
Speaker 2: do wonder as you look at other Democrats who are
Speaker 2: struggling to make gains or break through, do you think
Speaker 2: focusing more on those cable excuse me, kitchen table issues
Speaker 2: and less on the president would be more effective for
Speaker 2: the party if they're trying to gain more seats, especially
Speaker 2: the midterms.
Speaker 9: I can say it's the successful formula for me, and
Speaker 9: it just makes sense. Right things that are abstract and
Speaker 9: don't impact your day to day life are just not
Speaker 9: going to have as much of an impact on your
Speaker 9: decision making. And we don't have the final numbers, but
Speaker 9: it looks like a large number of Independents and a
Speaker 9: really significant number of Republicans also voted for me as
Speaker 9: well as you know, large support across political parties. And
Speaker 9: I'm very proud of that because that was my theory
Speaker 9: of the case going into this was that most people
Speaker 9: I talk to, regardless of their political stripe, we're talking
Speaker 9: about the same things. We were talking about property insurance,
Speaker 9: we were talking about, you know, the skyrocketing cost of
Speaker 9: health care, we were talking about our public schools being gutted,
Speaker 9: so those really it doesn't it's not a partisan slant,
Speaker 9: and I don't think railing against something is as successful
Speaker 9: as you know, defining what you're for.
Speaker 5: We pull back lastly, and I think we could focus
Speaker 5: on the patio at mar Lago and the wealth that
Speaker 5: exists in some parts of the district that you represent.
Speaker 5: The maybe you can kind of introduce viewers and listeners
Speaker 5: who don't know it to a wider audience. What is
Speaker 5: your district like and sort of what are the principal
Speaker 5: challenges that you see at facing here?
Speaker 3: In the year ahead.
Speaker 9: Yeah, thank you for asking. So it runs down the coast.
Speaker 9: There's a population at the center at the top, so
Speaker 9: Jupiter is where I live, Palm Beach Gardens, North Palm, Juno,
Speaker 9: So it's kind of like a circle up there, and
Speaker 9: then Skinny Skinny skinny all the way down the coast
Speaker 9: to Manalapan and hyper Luxo, which is actually very large
Speaker 9: distance wise for a state House district, with some carbouts
Speaker 9: to include downtown West Palm and downtown Lake Worth Beach.
Speaker 9: So downtown West Palm Beach, big, big, number one concern
Speaker 9: is this rapid rapid growth and how you balance that
Speaker 9: with smart growth. And in Lakeworth they have some real
Speaker 9: water quality challenges and infrastructure that really need to be
Speaker 9: addressed through the legislature, and it would have been really
Speaker 9: important for them to have a District eighty seven representative
Speaker 9: in this legislative session that just wrapped up. So that
Speaker 9: is the importance of representation as these local issues that
Speaker 9: need you know, you need a representative to go fight
Speaker 9: fight for that, fight for your needs at the local level.
Speaker 2: All right, local government very important. Emily Gregory, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us on this Sunday.
Speaker 3: Great to get that perspective.
Speaker 5: Joining us now, Puck News writer reporter Abby Livingston, Bloomberg
Speaker 5: opinion columns, and two time Pulitzer Prize winner Ron Brownstein
Speaker 5: is with us and Brecker's University director of the Eagleton
Speaker 5: Center for Public Interests pulling. Ashley Coening is with us
Speaker 5: here on set in New York as well.
Speaker 10: Ron.
Speaker 5: Let me start with you, and let's use what we
Speaker 5: heard over the last couple of minutes to kick off
Speaker 5: this conversation. Christina asking the very good question, what can
Speaker 5: you extrapolate from a local race like this one about
Speaker 5: Democrats directionally going into the midterm elections?
Speaker 6: What did you hear there?
Speaker 5: What is your sense of the greet which Democrats should
Speaker 5: focus on Donald Trump going forward or focus more specifically
Speaker 5: on the issues of affordability and healthcare in the light?
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's really good morning, Good to be with you.
Speaker 6: First of all, it's both.
Speaker 10: And especially in a midterm I think if you look
Speaker 10: at modern American politics, this single dominant force in midterm
Speaker 10: elections is the voter assessment of the performance of the
Speaker 10: incommon president. I mean, in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty,
Speaker 10: at least ninety percent of voters who disapproved of Trump
Speaker 10: voted a Democratic each time. We saw that again in
Speaker 10: the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races. Were in the
Speaker 10: exit polls, Mikey, Cheryl and Abigail Spamberger each one over
Speaker 10: ninety percent of voters who disapproved of Trump. So that
Speaker 10: is obviously, you know, a central focus. But she's right
Speaker 10: that you know to get those last few points of
Speaker 10: voters that you need either side, really and this was
Speaker 10: true for Trump in twenty four. They are not voters
Speaker 10: who are fundamentally enlisted into the ideological battle between the parties.
Speaker 10: They are voting on results, and to convince them that
Speaker 10: you have an agenda or a plan that can address
Speaker 10: their real material concerns I think is critical. But I
Speaker 10: will say it is probably more important in twenty eight
Speaker 10: than twenty six. As I say, historically, midterm elections are
Speaker 10: predomined a referendum on the incumbent president.
Speaker 2: All right, but I'll be looking at twenty six. You
Speaker 2: and I were talking and you're seeing one of the
Speaker 2: big issues is these republic and retirements. We just had
Speaker 2: another one this week. How big does that factor into
Speaker 2: the map.
Speaker 11: This is a very big issue, and this special election
Speaker 11: could influence that any underperformance might encourage an incumbent. There's
Speaker 11: a few more filing deadlines ahead, and that's sort of
Speaker 11: the go time to make a decision, and so incumbents
Speaker 11: maybe looking at this and going my reelection may be
Speaker 11: a lot harder than I ever expected. And so these
Speaker 11: there are repercussions to this little local race that will
Speaker 11: go national.
Speaker 6: That's really interesting, Ashley.
Speaker 5: Let me ask you what we're seeing in the public
Speaker 5: opinion data which you study so closely. What is it
Speaker 5: indicating about the issues that are most animating voters going
Speaker 5: into the midterms right now?
Speaker 12: I mean, again, these are things that we saw with
Speaker 12: you know, down in Florida. These are things we just
Speaker 12: saw in New Jersey in the fall. It's all about
Speaker 12: cost of living and that buzzword of affordability and inflation.
Speaker 12: And these are the issues that President Trump, his numbers
Speaker 12: have been failing on. When it comes to approvals of
Speaker 12: individual issue areas, we have not seen a president in
Speaker 12: recent history. If they are not above the fifty percent
Speaker 12: mark going into the mid terms, they will very likely
Speaker 12: lose seats. So that, given with the combination of economic sentiment,
Speaker 12: sets a very bad path for Republicans heading into the
Speaker 12: mid terms.
Speaker 5: We just head up there that poll Fox News poll,
Speaker 5: and I saw far seventy one percent of voters are
Speaker 5: disapproving of the way that the president has been tackling inflation.
Speaker 2: Ron I also want to ask you there's an article
Speaker 2: in La Times today talking about Donald Trump and the
Speaker 2: Latino vote, which was a big part of his win,
Speaker 2: and that those numbers may not hold the next time around.
Speaker 2: It's interesting because you have people who are upset with
Speaker 2: the president about how his administration has handled immigration and
Speaker 2: enforcement things like that. But then you also have a
Speaker 2: sector of the population, especially in Florida, that would be
Speaker 2: very happy with the president if he does what he
Speaker 2: is hinting that he's going to do, and that's go
Speaker 2: into Cuba and make some moves there. Can you talk
Speaker 2: to us about that voter base. It's not a monolith.
Speaker 2: Where do they stand and are they likely to come
Speaker 2: support the president in the same numbers as the next
Speaker 2: time around?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 10: I mean, look, without question, the aspect of the twenty
Speaker 10: four results that was the most discussed in the days
Speaker 10: and weeks after the election were Trump's improvements broadly among
Speaker 10: non white voters, particularly non college non white voters, Hispanics,
Speaker 10: black men, to some extent Asian Americans. And the argument
Speaker 10: was that he was now building a cross racial working
Speaker 10: class coalition, that he was making the same kind of
Speaker 10: gains among blue collar non white voters that he had
Speaker 10: earlier recorded among blue.
Speaker 3: Collar white voters.
Speaker 10: And you know, you fast forward a year and a
Speaker 10: half and a lot of that virtually all of that
Speaker 10: has rolled back. And because those many of those voters
Speaker 10: who moved toward Trump in minority communities and Latinos were
Speaker 10: certainly among them, I think fit into what I was
Speaker 10: talking about before. They were primarily results voters. They were
Speaker 10: disappointed in the results they were getting under Joe Biden.
Speaker 10: They remembered that their cost of living was more affordable
Speaker 10: under Trump. You know, you would talk to Democratic pollsters
Speaker 10: in twenty four and they would all have the same
Speaker 10: phrase and say what they would describe as the nightmare
Speaker 10: phrase they heard in focus groups, which is that from
Speaker 10: they they would be talking to a group of Hispanic
Speaker 10: or black voters and someone would say, you know, yes,
Speaker 10: I think Donald Trump is insensitive.
Speaker 6: I think he's a racist.
Speaker 10: But if I'm telling the truth, I had more money
Speaker 10: in my pocket when he was president, and that I
Speaker 10: think was what moved a lot of those voters toward him.
Speaker 10: And now he's basically overplayed his hand on immigration and
Speaker 10: he is facing a backlash among Latino voters on that,
Speaker 10: and he has failed to deliver what they wanted. Most
Speaker 10: the Cuban American and Central and South American diaspora in
Speaker 10: Miami is just a different kind of cohort than really
Speaker 10: any other group of Hispanic voters in the country. They're
Speaker 10: the last ones that will move away. I mean, you're
Speaker 10: looking more at places like Texas, Colorado, Nevada, even Pennsylvania.
Speaker 10: It's going to be really, really important whether Republicans see
Speaker 10: a regression from the games Trump scored in twenty four.
Speaker 2: He had a couple of colorad AND's here at this
Speaker 2: table actually quickly before we go to break, I do
Speaker 2: want to ask you about how Iran is factoring into
Speaker 2: all of this. You know, this is the party of
Speaker 2: non interventionists, not forever wars. Are you seeing those numbers
Speaker 2: impact even the most hardcore of Trump supports. We've been
Speaker 2: talking a lot about SEPAC this week, Jeff Mason telling
Speaker 2: us for the most part that support is holding their
Speaker 2: giving the benefits of doubt. But are you starting to
Speaker 2: see flickers of some doubt in that voter base.
Speaker 12: You know, I think, like Ron was saying, we definitely
Speaker 12: have seen these key groups that kind of propelled him
Speaker 12: to victory in twenty twenty four breaking away with him,
Speaker 12: especially when it comes to white men, white non college
Speaker 12: educated men. And this is also playing into the Iran factor.
Speaker 12: The number one thing in polling that adults say is
Speaker 12: that they do not want to see gas prices rise,
Speaker 12: and so I think that is a big factor here.
Speaker 12: They do not want to see the repercussions of this
Speaker 12: war come back home, especially when it comes to cost
Speaker 12: of living in affordability issues that are affecting their everyday lives.
Speaker 12: So we do see that MAGA voters are predominantly still
Speaker 12: in the corner, but there has been some slippage in
Speaker 12: the polls among Republicans when it comes to things like
Speaker 12: the war in Iran, and that combination of foreign you know,
Speaker 12: quagmire abroad combined with prices skyrocketing at home is not
Speaker 12: a good combination for the president with whether it's his
Speaker 12: voters or other voting blocks.
Speaker 2: Habe people only got about thirty seconds, but our den
Speaker 2: is going to take advantage of that.
Speaker 11: I think absolutely. I mean, and they have no political
Speaker 11: blame over this in the way they did with the
Speaker 11: Iraq War when so many Democratic senators and House members voted,
Speaker 11: So this is sort of they can have their hands
Speaker 11: clean of this. If this does not.
Speaker 2: Go well, all right, Abby, Ron, Ashley, stay with us.
Speaker 2: We're gonna have a lot more ahead on Bloomerg this week,
Speaker 2: and we're gonna talk about DHS more Ron and where we
Speaker 2: all go. As again, it's always there's always another election
Speaker 2: around the corner. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: this weekend.
Speaker 3: Right after this.
Speaker 5: Back with us are Appy Lives and Rob Brownstein Ashley
Speaker 5: Coning as well.
Speaker 3: Appy, let me start with you.
Speaker 5: We've been through this week where the Senate stayed up
Speaker 5: late and the House stayed up late, and there was
Speaker 5: no resolution. We stayed up late well as we watched
Speaker 5: all this unfil this royal and conflict about funding the
Speaker 5: Department of Homeland Security. Now members of both those houses
Speaker 5: go back to their home districts for a two week
Speaker 5: recess where they're going to hear from constituents. The lines remain,
Speaker 5: I assume longer than normal. Who has played this right
Speaker 5: or best in your estimation, the Democrats the Republicans. Is
Speaker 5: this has gone on now for more than a month.
Speaker 4: I think it can go both ways.
Speaker 11: They each have an argument to point the finger at
Speaker 11: the other. But I just think it's interesting that this
Speaker 11: hit during spring break and that is a travel season
Speaker 11: for families, and planes will probably been missed, and that's
Speaker 11: going to hit really hard, and so I think those
Speaker 11: things stick with them. And I think that whoever the
Speaker 11: member of Congresses who's out and about in the community
Speaker 11: is probably going to get an earfull and it's not
Speaker 11: a good position to be in. And it just shows
Speaker 11: how dysfunctional our government is.
Speaker 2: And you've got this really interesting thing with TMZ of
Speaker 2: all people, putting a bounty out for photos of members
Speaker 2: of Congress enjoying spring break while the shutdown continues and
Speaker 2: TSA lines are still long, Ashley, when you look at
Speaker 2: pulling on Congress, it's not good. Is it getting any better?
Speaker 2: And are there specific places that people want to see
Speaker 2: action that might help it?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: No, I think that's a simple answer, Aaron.
Speaker 12: It's just not getting any better. And we haven't seen,
Speaker 12: you know, as much iron pulling for this partial shutdown
Speaker 12: as we may have seen in the fall, but it's increasing.
Speaker 12: I mean, these are tangible things that people are experiencing
Speaker 12: every day that impacts their lives, and so you know,
Speaker 12: it is just kind of increasing the negativity, the dissatisfaction
Speaker 12: with Congress and with the president as well. I mean,
Speaker 12: the buck always stops with the president. So this is
Speaker 12: yet another thing that is not working necessarily in his favor.
Speaker 12: But you know, we see that trust satisfaction with Congress.
Speaker 12: These are all all time lows. This is not a
Speaker 12: legislative body that Americans are proud or approving of.
Speaker 5: Ronie right about the way in which this animates kind
Speaker 5: of insurgent candidates, those who are kind of vying against
Speaker 5: or going against the mainstream and sort of status quo
Speaker 5: and Washington and Graham Platner certainly comes to mind. He
Speaker 5: the subject of latest columns, or what's going to happen
Speaker 5: in main between him and Janet Mills and which of
Speaker 5: the two of them is going to face off against
Speaker 5: Susan Collins. Your sense of the way that this what
Speaker 5: we've become inured to the dysfunction of Washington is going
Speaker 5: to be an animating factor here in the midterm elections.
Speaker 10: Look it has become an animating factor in our elections
Speaker 10: for quite a while. I mean, people make the argument
Speaker 10: that virtually every election of the twenty first century has
Speaker 10: been a change election, maybe with the exception of two
Speaker 10: thousand and two, where you know, you're in two thousand
Speaker 10: and four where you're seeing at least some backlash against
Speaker 10: the party in power. I mean, that is the core
Speaker 10: dynamic that we are facing. As I said, midterm elections.
Speaker 10: I think the single the evidence is that the single
Speaker 10: most powerful factor in them of our voter assessments of
Speaker 10: the income and president and it you know, it is
Speaker 10: an ominous a trend for Republicans that Trump is really
Speaker 10: at his lowest point of his second term this close
Speaker 10: to the election. That is a big wave. But there
Speaker 10: is a big wall, David, in front of it, which
Speaker 10: is that, you know, the battlefield is more tilted toward
Speaker 10: red places than it was in twenty eighteen. Democrats have
Speaker 10: won a lot of those easier to win house districts.
Speaker 10: There are only eight Republicans in districts that voted for
Speaker 10: Harris even after redistricting. And to win the Senate after
Speaker 10: you get past those first two in North Carolina and Maine,
Speaker 10: Democrats are going to have to win states that Trump
Speaker 10: won by double digits, So there's no question is weaker
Speaker 10: than he was in twenty four has he receded enough
Speaker 10: that Democrats have a shot on some of these places
Speaker 10: that really are on the pretty far on the red
Speaker 10: side of the fifty yard line.
Speaker 2: Abby, talk to us about the primaries to watch. I
Speaker 2: know you want to talk about Maine. What are the
Speaker 2: other races that you think are going to be impactful
Speaker 2: or that are getting you excited as you get excited
Speaker 2: about primaries like you half four.
Speaker 11: Years, Well, Maine is absolutely fascinating. We have the Texas
Speaker 11: run off, which is an ongoing soap opera. Will he
Speaker 11: or will he not endorse?
Speaker 6: This is corn versus Paxton.
Speaker 11: Ken Paxton. Let's see what else Minnesota Senate on the
Speaker 11: Democratic side is going to be fascinating. That's not tell
Speaker 11: August Michigan Senate Democratic primary is probably the race that
Speaker 11: most fascinates the Democratic Party and to an extent, the
Speaker 11: Republican Party because there's so many different issues Israel, the economy,
Speaker 11: but it also seems to be the one that's most
Speaker 11: in the direction of where we can see twenty twenty
Speaker 11: eight going.
Speaker 2: And how big of a deal has redistricting played in
Speaker 2: these maps?
Speaker 11: Staggering and it is ongoing, and it is so they're
Speaker 11: about to redraw in Florida and the special election we
Speaker 11: just discussed that might help spook Republican incumbents who don't
Speaker 11: want to give up Republican voters. And then you have Virginia,
Speaker 11: where the credibility of Governor Abigail Spamberger is on the
Speaker 11: line of whether she can get the statewide initiative through
Speaker 11: to redraw their maps. But it is a difficult issue,
Speaker 11: it's very toxic and there's a lot of collateral damage.
Speaker 5: Ron I want to ask you about these no Kings
Speaker 5: protests that we saw yesterday across the country, in your
Speaker 5: backyard ours as well in many places across the United States.
Speaker 5: What do you take away from that when it comes
Speaker 5: to kind of detailing the sentiment, the anti incumbent sentiment
Speaker 5: that's in place among Democrats. Of course, with actual political action,
Speaker 5: how much does this that expression dissatisfaction lead to political
Speaker 5: change or the agitation for it.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's a measure of intensity.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 10: You know, if the organizers say eight million people showed
Speaker 10: up yesterday, obviously we have to wait for independent sources
Speaker 10: to confirm that, but if it is eight million people,
Speaker 10: it's the largest single day of protest in American history,
Speaker 10: and it is a measure of the intensity of the
Speaker 10: opposition that the president Trump face and it's kind of
Speaker 10: reinforced by polling him. Even in the Fox Powle last week,
Speaker 10: roughly half of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump performance as president,
Speaker 10: compared to only about a quarter who strongly approved, and
Speaker 10: that gap is really important because strong disapprovers are different,
Speaker 10: particularly in a midterm, than those who say they only
Speaker 10: somewhat disapprove. Strong disapprovers are more likely to turn out,
Speaker 10: and what we have seen in midterm elections pretty much
Speaker 10: through the twenty first century is somewhere around ninety five
Speaker 10: percent of people who say they strongly disapprove of a
Speaker 10: president vote against his party's candidates in the typical House
Speaker 10: and Senate race. So the No King's Rally, I think,
Speaker 10: was another measure of the intensity of the opposition that
Speaker 10: Trump faces at a time when the Republican base is
Speaker 10: somewhat fractured over issues like Iran, and that could produce
Speaker 10: a differential turnout problem for them in November. That might
Speaker 10: allow Democrats to get over some of those high walls
Speaker 10: I just talked about in places that have leaned historically
Speaker 10: pretty red.
Speaker 2: Asher We've talked a lot about Republican numbers and what
Speaker 2: they're not doing well. People aren't happy with the Republicans, but
Speaker 2: people aren't really thrilled with the Democrats either. I mean,
Speaker 2: one thing I hear even from people within the Democrat
Speaker 2: Party is do something? Is that reflected in the numbers,
Speaker 2: and are you seeing disappointment there as well? Even as
Speaker 2: we have these no kings rallies, there doesn't seem to
Speaker 2: be a focus or a purpose or an action item
Speaker 2: for a lot of these policies.
Speaker 12: You know, I would say, I think we should point
Speaker 12: to a lot of these special elections or these off
Speaker 12: year elections that we've seen, whether in New Jersey and Virginia,
Speaker 12: whether we're talking about Florida, Texas. I think these are
Speaker 12: the Democrats that are emerging for the party, that are
Speaker 12: showing we are doing something when it comes to these
Speaker 12: kitchen table issues, and maybe that is the strategy that's
Speaker 12: the playbook moving forward in the midterms. Right now, Democrats
Speaker 12: have about in the generic ballot three to five percent
Speaker 12: on Republicans that should increase if we keep going on
Speaker 12: the same path, we usually will see five more points
Speaker 12: for the opposing party when it's the fall kickoff of
Speaker 12: the midterm. So you know, this could be a pretty
Speaker 12: big wave. But like Ron said, we also have to
Speaker 12: be careful about where these races would be taking place,
Speaker 12: how competitive these areas are, and how difficult some of
Speaker 12: these races are. Despite what we do see in the
Speaker 12: generic ballot. But you know, we also see that thirteen
Speaker 12: percent of Trump supporters from twenty twenty four regret their vote.
Speaker 12: So even if there are silent Trumpers, a big number,
Speaker 12: it's a big number and very small in comparison for Democrats.
Speaker 12: So you know, there's there's a lot at play here
Speaker 12: that could go either way. But I think there are
Speaker 12: Democrats out there there are forging ahead with some sort
Speaker 12: of platform of doing something instead of just commenting against.
Speaker 2: Emily Gregor who flip mar A Lago saying that was
Speaker 2: her strength talking about kitchen table issues and not the president.
Speaker 2: So all right, Abby Livingston, Ron Brownstein, and Ashley cunning
Speaker 2: thank you all so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right
Speaker 4: after this.
Speaker 2: For the first time in nearly fifty years, NASA is
Speaker 2: sending astronauts back to the Moon.
Speaker 5: The Artemists two mission set for liftoff from Florida as
Speaker 5: early as Wednesday of this coming week. Joining us now
Speaker 5: as Ed Ludlow, co host of Bloomberg Tech, He's going
Speaker 5: to be there in Florida for this launch, should it
Speaker 5: regardless of whether or not a transpires, I should say, Ed,
Speaker 5: help us understand the magnitude of this, what this means
Speaker 5: kind of in the history of space exploration.
Speaker 13: Yeah, this is the great next step in America's ambition
Speaker 13: to have humans back on the Moon. In this mission
Speaker 13: Artemists too, they're basically doing a fly by or a
Speaker 13: fly around the Moon, so they travel deep into space
Speaker 13: two hundred and eighty five thousand miles, go around the Moon,
Speaker 13: and come back. But it's you know, it's the great
Speaker 13: dress rehearsal for the technology essentially that's that's planned to
Speaker 13: get humankind and driven by NASA America back to the
Speaker 13: Moon maybe twenty twenty eight. And it is the space
Speaker 13: launch system principally built by Boeing and then the Iran
Speaker 13: spacecraft principle be built by Lockheed and you know, it's
Speaker 13: a project that is way behind schedule, frankly and massively
Speaker 13: over budget, but a big moment if we go off
Speaker 13: this week.
Speaker 2: We know there are four astronauts. I do know one
Speaker 2: of them is named Christina. I also know that neither
Speaker 2: none of the three of us were invited to go
Speaker 2: on this mission, which we're a little salty about. But
Speaker 2: what do we know about these individuals and how they
Speaker 2: got selected.
Speaker 13: Yeah, so there there's essentially three US citizens and one Canadian.
Speaker 13: It's a great international collaboration, you know, beyond the crew themselves.
Speaker 13: The European Space Agency has a hand some of the
Speaker 13: technology of the full Stack as well. But you know,
Speaker 13: they are people with vast experience. Reid Wiseman is the
Speaker 13: commander of the mission. He's you know, classic former Navy
Speaker 13: test pilot, has has previously been to ISS Victor Glover
Speaker 13: will be the first black astronaut to travel to lunar distance.
Speaker 13: So it's you know, it's kind of a significant moment
Speaker 13: in history from that standpoint, but he's been you know
Speaker 13: on prior SpaceX driven mission. SpaceX Crew one. Christina, who
Speaker 13: you mentioned, is the mission specialist electrical engineer. She actually
Speaker 13: holds the record for the longest continuous spaceflight by a woman.
Speaker 13: And then the Canadian is Jeremy Hanson, first Canadian assigned
Speaker 13: to a Luna mission. So a lot of first but
Speaker 13: highly decorated and experienced CREWE specialist.
Speaker 2: I feel like I can adopt that for myself here
Speaker 2: Bloomer mission specialist.
Speaker 5: Go ahead, Davin, and we're looking at live pictures now.
Speaker 5: Our viewers on TV and a Blobery Dog common on
Speaker 5: the app can see those pictures there in Florida. What
Speaker 5: can you expect as you make your way there? And
Speaker 5: as I said, there's some uncertainty, of course whether or
Speaker 5: not this is going to and you mentioned that delays
Speaker 5: this program has faced over many many years. Now, Yeah,
Speaker 5: walks through what's going to transpire here over the course
Speaker 5: of the week leading up to that final countdown.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean NASA, you know, is communicating very regularly.
Speaker 13: And whether you take that as indication of confidence, you know,
Speaker 13: it's hard to tell. Space launch when it involves human
Speaker 13: life is complex. There are systems issues. They will run tests.
Speaker 13: They are not doing a full dress rehearsal, which they
Speaker 13: had done in the month of March early March, late February.
Speaker 13: They will track the weather very closely, but it all
Speaker 13: gets toward the earliest opportunity to launch, which is six
Speaker 13: twenty four pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, April first. And
Speaker 13: you know, the system is a mix of highly synchronized
Speaker 13: autonomous technology, human judgment call, and again the weather is
Speaker 13: a big factor, you know on the range at KC,
Speaker 13: so that will constantly be launched.
Speaker 6: But the crew are there.
Speaker 13: You know, they've arrived I believe, Friday afternoon having been
Speaker 13: in quarantine and mandatory quarantine, and it is all tracking
Speaker 13: to that early launch window. But there are backup windows
Speaker 13: over consected days through Monday night.
Speaker 2: So this mission is essentially kind of doing a lunar flyby.
Speaker 2: Is it the next mission that the hope is they
Speaker 2: will actually get boots on the Moon? And why do this?
Speaker 2: Is it just because as that you know, legendary West
Speaker 2: Wing episode says this is what's next in human progress?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean there's the politics of it.
Speaker 13: Frankly, you know, the Trump administration had put the Moon
Speaker 13: front and center of its own belief of what NASA
Speaker 13: should be doing. The Artemis program has its origins back
Speaker 13: in the Bush era George W. But you know Obama
Speaker 13: didn't really go for the Moon as a priority, and
Speaker 13: then Trump presidency one carried through Biden and Trump two.
Speaker 13: You know, Artemis one, which was testing the Orion spacecraft
Speaker 13: and space launch system, was supposed to go in twenty seventeen.
Speaker 13: It went in twenty two, and that's had a cascading effect.
Speaker 13: But the goal on paper is to get human boots,
Speaker 13: American boots on the Moon's surface in twenty twenty eight,
Speaker 13: with the geopolitics of knowing China has the same ambition
Speaker 13: and they're saying twenty thirty. So you know, I wouldn't
Speaker 13: underestimate that part of the story, the political will to
Speaker 13: do this, which was a big part of Jared Isaacman's
Speaker 13: path to becoming administrator. Maybe we can talk about that
Speaker 13: on another edition of Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 13: Yeah, it's seriously important to this administration.
Speaker 5: Very quickly got about a minute left. I'm curious you
Speaker 5: mentioned that this is say Boeing and Lockheed joined project.
Speaker 5: These are kind of old standby government contractors. How has
Speaker 5: the advent of SpaceX and Blue Origin and the rest
Speaker 5: have changed the shape of this this program, this particular mission,
Speaker 5: in any way.
Speaker 13: NASA has committed to that those two as principal contractors
Speaker 13: through Artemus five. But as Lauren Grush and I broke
Speaker 13: the story on ten days ago and the administrator confirmed
Speaker 13: on Tuesday morning they have two new proposals from SpaceX
Speaker 13: and from Blue Origin to take over the actual role
Speaker 13: of getting a Ryan from lower four bit to the moon.
Speaker 13: So right now Space Launch System takes to orbit and
Speaker 13: carries it or propels it to the moon. There is
Speaker 13: a you can read about it on Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 13: But there is now a propose where actually those two
Speaker 13: newer names will probably step in and do what those
Speaker 13: others have struggled to do.
Speaker 5: Ed come back if you were that, said Lad Love
Speaker 5: course the ank or Bloomberg Tech, and he said a
Speaker 5: great order. As we said, anytime you can take that
Speaker 5: victory Love for any scoops you have it, we'll have
Speaker 5: you back on the show.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend Podcast.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every
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