WEBVTT - Midterms in Focus after 'No Kings' Rallies, CPAC 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:37.600 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.080 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:42.240 --> 0:00:45.920 That's CPAC conference was underway in Texas this week. The focus, 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:48.120 of course, was what its Republican Party looked like post 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.199 Donald Trump, but there was also something of great conversation 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:52.800 there had to do with Iran warrens where all of 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:54.920 that is headed and especially top of mind for attendees there, 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:56.240 including Iranian Americans. 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:56.960 Let's take a listen. 0:00:57.560 --> 0:00:59.560 I am fank you on, but I am your citizen. 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:05.880 Also, maybe do you think why US should be in war? Actually, 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.360 I am going to say, is the best time to 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:14.160 make America great again? And Iran can be the biggest 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:18.600 part of the puzzle to be disheld but first we 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:20.720 have to need a freedom. 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:22.920 David Ben sorry, one of the attendees there at that 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:25.640 SEAPEC conference in grape Vine, Sexas. Jeff Mason was there 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:27.520 covering it for us. He's a White House correspondent at 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:29.640 Bloomberg News. Jeff, great to have you with us once again. 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.160 Talk a bit about the degree to which this conflict 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:34.760 was reverberating around the halls of that gay Lord hotel 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:37.000 in Texas. How much was it front of mine for 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:38.280 those who are participating there. 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.160 I think it sort of overshadowed a large part of 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:46.520 the conference. Honestly, as we've talked about earlier, the support 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:50.160 for President Trump is still extremely high. But the fact 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:53.120 that the president went back on a promise with this war, 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:56.600 the fact that the war has gone on for several 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.240 weeks now, and the fact that fuel prices are up 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:03.600 with no particular site or end in sight are all 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:05.480 things that are that are concerning to. 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:06.520 People at SEAPACK. 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:10.079 Even if they continue to say they support the president, 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.240 they support the war, they're just question marks about it. 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.120 And the question marks are both about those promises that 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:19.040 we that I just mentioned and about the impact that 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:20.280 it's going to have politically. 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.480 Going into the November elections. 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:26.480 And Jeff, President Trump didn't speak at SEAPAC this year. 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:28.800 Is that significant? Why did they make that choice? And 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:30.799 did attendees notice, do they care? 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:32.640 Well? 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:34.720 I think I don't think that was a choice by 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:36.920 SEAPAC organizers. I think they would have been delighted to have 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.760 President Trump come. And there was there was even a 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:42.560 little bit of rumor milling while I was there that 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:44.800 they were still trying to get a big name speaker 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.919 like Vice President Vance or Secretary of State Rubio to come. 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:51.359 I'm sure they would have been delighted if the President 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:51.800 had come. 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:55.280 All of that said, there's a lot of forgiveness for 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.800 President Trump in that room, and that would apply to 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:02.080 both a lack of a tenants as well as breaking 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:04.080 some promises that he made as a candidate. 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:06.120 Jeff, You've covered a number of these over the years, 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:09.600 and I'm curious sort of how much energy and enthusiasm 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:11.639 there was this one compared to one's past. They used 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:13.880 to be in Washington, d C. Then they were in Maryland, 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:16.720 a little ways away from the capital. Now we have 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.760 it taking place in Texas. Does it retain the level 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:22.120 of energy and enthusiasm among participants that it had in 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:22.520 the past. 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:25.399 You know, there was plenty of energy there. 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:29.000 I mean, it's interesting in terms of people watching you 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:32.200 go and people wearing red. 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:33.919 Maga hats or black Maga hats. 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:35.760 I spoke to one woman who was dressed up in 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:39.280 a Statue of Liberty costume, all of whom were very 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:42.080 happy to talk about their love of the president and 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.720 their hate of communism and socialism and the other buzzwords 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:50.680 that SEAPAC very successfully has associated with the left. You know, 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.080 it is You're right, it was in Dallas as opposed 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:56.960 to in the DC area. But there's a lot of 0:03:56.960 --> 0:04:01.240 conservative energy in Dallas for sure, and people from all 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:02.840 over the country who came. 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.400 So yeah, I didn't notice a dip in energy. 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:09.080 I just certainly noticed at least some concern, and that 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:12.960 would include at the very top of the organizer level. 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:16.919 I spoke to Matt Slap concern about the impact of 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:20.760 this war on the elections. And when I spoke to Matt, 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.120 he discussed the fact that this is an interesting and 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:28.480 tricky political time and the impact on Republicans and the 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:32.640 impact on the MAGA faithful when it comes to those elections, which, 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.320 as you all know, I love to talk about is looming. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:41.880 So they're thinking about that, but they're also again using 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:46.120 they use their time in Dallas to talk about the 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.039 things that they care about, both in the US and 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.240 globally in terms of the conservative movement. 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.440 Jeff, we just got about a minute or so left, 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:53.760 but I do want to let you talk a little 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:55.920 bit about those midterm elections that you hold so near 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:56.640 and dear to your heart. 0:04:58.120 --> 0:04:58.919 Maybe I love it. 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:01.960 Let's do it better you than me, buddy, all right, 0:05:02.040 --> 0:05:04.120 So Steapack is the diehards. Of course, these are like 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.760 the most loyal people to the president, and as you said, 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:08.760 they're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:12.640 But as you talk to Republicans at large, maybe outside 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:16.120 of that bubble just slightly, are they getting concerned about 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.960 things like oil prices, about how long this conflict in 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.160 Iran is going, especially as we are coming up on 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.719 those midterms. There's always another election around the corner, but 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:26.040 this one, the President keeps saying, you know, oil prices 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:27.560 are a blip. It's going to wind down, it's going 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:29.480 to resolve. It doesn't seem to be going as quickly 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:30.120 as he would like. 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:33.200 I think that's right, and I you know, it's it's 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.240 easy for a political reporter to talk about the next election, 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:39.080 but this next election is so critical for President Trump. 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:43.960 It will have so many implications for the second half 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:47.640 of his second term, in terms of legislation, in terms 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:50.760 of policy priorities, in terms of the potential investigations that 0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:54.120 Democrats would launch if Democrats take over the House and 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:58.120 potentially the Senate. I think the risks that you just highlighted, 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:02.040 Christina are spot on. I think those risks are present 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:05.200 both within the Democratic and independent base, but also among 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:07.719 the magni the magna folks who he will need to 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:08.600 go out and vote as well. 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:10.479 Jeff Mason, who covers the White House forests and the 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:12.760 Seapac conference, he was there over the course last week. 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:14.000 Jeff Mason, thank you very much for the time. 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:15.000 Thanks Jeff for you soon. 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:19.839 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:35.480 Right after this, Emily Gregory went from owning a fitness 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.320 center for pregnant and postpartum women to defeating a Trump 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:42.799 back Republican for state representative. The special election surprise victory 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:45.560 is raising eyebrows, not only because she's a Democrat who 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:49.719 won a conservative district because she represents marri Lago and 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:52.719 her most famous resident is, of course, President Donald Trump. 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:56.080 Joining us now is Florida State Representative Emily Gregory. Emily, 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:59.240 I understand that you're also a first time politician. You've 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:01.680 not run for anything before. What made you want to 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:03.360 get involved and why did you think you could win? 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:07.760 Yes, so this has all been a whirlwind. I filed 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:11.360 last summer, just not happy with the representation we were 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:14.800 getting out of Tallahassee. I felt that for years they 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.840 have not been focused on the issues my friends and 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.440 my neighbors and I are talking about that we need 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:25.080 solutions to, and they're focused on distractions. And I thought, hey, 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:29.360 if those dummies, wehy not. 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:30.760 Morning TV, but we can allowed dummies. 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:35.600 Yes, go ahead, let me ask you about what you 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:37.520 did focus on. You mentioned some of those issues that 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.720 you and your friends were talking about, indeed, cared about Christina, 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.560 bringing up perhaps your most famous resident constituent. 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:45.880 How much did you over the course. 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:49.640 Of the campaign talk about him, focus on him, address 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:52.960 national policies, visa VI him. How large did Donald Trump 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:54.400 loom in the campaign that you waged. 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.520 I would say he did not loom large, not because 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.200 it's not innate, but because it's outside the scope of 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:05.320 the state House. And one thing our campaign is very 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:09.160 strong on is staying disciplined on the issues, So right 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:11.840 you go. I went into the campaign with an idea 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:14.400 of what issues were affecting me most, and I really 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.640 really listened in all the conversations we had knocking on 0:08:17.720 --> 0:08:20.720 doors and at campaign events to what are the biggest 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:24.000 issues at the state level that are affecting District eighty 0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:28.239 seven voters, And we heard housing and healthcare and public education, 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:30.679 so that we were laser focused on those issues. 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.720 It's very tempting, especially those of us who call the politics, 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:36.240 to extrapolate from one race and try to make it 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:38.440 a trend and try to broaden it out. But I 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:41.040 do wonder as you look at other Democrats who are 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.800 struggling to make gains or break through, do you think 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:48.880 focusing more on those cable excuse me, kitchen table issues 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:51.480 and less on the president would be more effective for 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:53.720 the party if they're trying to gain more seats, especially 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:54.280 the midterms. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:59.320 I can say it's the successful formula for me, and 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:03.440 it just makes sense. Right things that are abstract and 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:07.040 don't impact your day to day life are just not 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:08.760 going to have as much of an impact on your 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:12.120 decision making. And we don't have the final numbers, but 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:14.480 it looks like a large number of Independents and a 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:18.319 really significant number of Republicans also voted for me as 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:22.400 well as you know, large support across political parties. And 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:25.600 I'm very proud of that because that was my theory 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.200 of the case going into this was that most people 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.679 I talk to, regardless of their political stripe, we're talking 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:34.120 about the same things. We were talking about property insurance, 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.800 we were talking about, you know, the skyrocketing cost of 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:40.079 health care, we were talking about our public schools being gutted, 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:45.160 so those really it doesn't it's not a partisan slant, 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.960 and I don't think railing against something is as successful 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:51.920 as you know, defining what you're for. 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:54.920 We pull back lastly, and I think we could focus 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.640 on the patio at mar Lago and the wealth that 0:09:57.720 --> 0:09:59.840 exists in some parts of the district that you represent. 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:02.680 The maybe you can kind of introduce viewers and listeners 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:06.079 who don't know it to a wider audience. What is 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:08.920 your district like and sort of what are the principal 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:10.360 challenges that you see at facing here? 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:11.000 In the year ahead. 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:15.720 Yeah, thank you for asking. So it runs down the coast. 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.480 There's a population at the center at the top, so 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:21.880 Jupiter is where I live, Palm Beach Gardens, North Palm, Juno, 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:24.439 So it's kind of like a circle up there, and 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:26.760 then Skinny Skinny skinny all the way down the coast 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:31.560 to Manalapan and hyper Luxo, which is actually very large 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:35.760 distance wise for a state House district, with some carbouts 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:38.480 to include downtown West Palm and downtown Lake Worth Beach. 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.559 So downtown West Palm Beach, big, big, number one concern 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:46.280 is this rapid rapid growth and how you balance that 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.840 with smart growth. And in Lakeworth they have some real 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.200 water quality challenges and infrastructure that really need to be 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.240 addressed through the legislature, and it would have been really 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:59.199 important for them to have a District eighty seven representative 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.320 in this legislative session that just wrapped up. So that 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:05.400 is the importance of representation as these local issues that 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.960 need you know, you need a representative to go fight 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.360 fight for that, fight for your needs at the local level. 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.440 All right, local government very important. Emily Gregory, thank you 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:16.280 so much for joining us on this Sunday. 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:17.480 Great to get that perspective. 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:20.640 Joining us now, Puck News writer reporter Abby Livingston, Bloomberg 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.560 opinion columns, and two time Pulitzer Prize winner Ron Brownstein 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:25.760 is with us and Brecker's University director of the Eagleton 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.200 Center for Public Interests pulling. Ashley Coening is with us 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:29.760 here on set in New York as well. 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:30.120 Ron. 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:32.320 Let me start with you, and let's use what we 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:33.920 heard over the last couple of minutes to kick off 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.880 this conversation. Christina asking the very good question, what can 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.320 you extrapolate from a local race like this one about 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.280 Democrats directionally going into the midterm elections? 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:43.720 What did you hear there? 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.480 What is your sense of the greet which Democrats should 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.439 focus on Donald Trump going forward or focus more specifically 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:51.360 on the issues of affordability and healthcare in the light? 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.080 Yeah, it's really good morning, Good to be with you. 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:55.800 First of all, it's both. 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:58.360 And especially in a midterm I think if you look 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.360 at modern American politics, this single dominant force in midterm 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:05.679 elections is the voter assessment of the performance of the 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.439 incommon president. I mean, in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty, 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.840 at least ninety percent of voters who disapproved of Trump 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.440 voted a Democratic each time. We saw that again in 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.520 the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races. Were in the 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:20.400 exit polls, Mikey, Cheryl and Abigail Spamberger each one over 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.760 ninety percent of voters who disapproved of Trump. So that 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:27.560 is obviously, you know, a central focus. But she's right 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.000 that you know to get those last few points of 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.240 voters that you need either side, really and this was 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.280 true for Trump in twenty four. They are not voters 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:39.440 who are fundamentally enlisted into the ideological battle between the parties. 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:43.640 They are voting on results, and to convince them that 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:48.960 you have an agenda or a plan that can address 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.920 their real material concerns I think is critical. But I 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:56.040 will say it is probably more important in twenty eight 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.480 than twenty six. As I say, historically, midterm elections are 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.040 predomined a referendum on the incumbent president. 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.400 All right, but I'll be looking at twenty six. You 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:05.760 and I were talking and you're seeing one of the 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.680 big issues is these republic and retirements. We just had 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:10.640 another one this week. How big does that factor into 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:11.000 the map. 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.480 This is a very big issue, and this special election 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:18.360 could influence that any underperformance might encourage an incumbent. There's 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:21.560 a few more filing deadlines ahead, and that's sort of 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:25.360 the go time to make a decision, and so incumbents 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.360 maybe looking at this and going my reelection may be 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.640 a lot harder than I ever expected. And so these 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.560 there are repercussions to this little local race that will 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:33.160 go national. 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:34.400 That's really interesting, Ashley. 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:35.720 Let me ask you what we're seeing in the public 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.320 opinion data which you study so closely. What is it 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:41.079 indicating about the issues that are most animating voters going 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:42.320 into the midterms right now? 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:44.320 I mean, again, these are things that we saw with 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:46.800 you know, down in Florida. These are things we just 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.440 saw in New Jersey in the fall. It's all about 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.640 cost of living and that buzzword of affordability and inflation. 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.600 And these are the issues that President Trump, his numbers 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.880 have been failing on. When it comes to approvals of 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.480 individual issue areas, we have not seen a president in 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.200 recent history. If they are not above the fifty percent 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.720 mark going into the mid terms, they will very likely 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.640 lose seats. So that, given with the combination of economic sentiment, 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.079 sets a very bad path for Republicans heading into the 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:15.600 mid terms. 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.720 We just head up there that poll Fox News poll, 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.760 and I saw far seventy one percent of voters are 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.280 disapproving of the way that the president has been tackling inflation. 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:25.080 Ron I also want to ask you there's an article 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.760 in La Times today talking about Donald Trump and the 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:30.320 Latino vote, which was a big part of his win, 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.200 and that those numbers may not hold the next time around. 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:36.560 It's interesting because you have people who are upset with 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.960 the president about how his administration has handled immigration and 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.240 enforcement things like that. But then you also have a 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:44.760 sector of the population, especially in Florida, that would be 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.120 very happy with the president if he does what he 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.200 is hinting that he's going to do, and that's go 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.360 into Cuba and make some moves there. Can you talk 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:53.480 to us about that voter base. It's not a monolith. 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.240 Where do they stand and are they likely to come 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:57.000 support the president in the same numbers as the next 0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:57.800 time around? 0:14:58.000 --> 0:14:58.200 Yeah? 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:01.520 I mean, look, without question, the aspect of the twenty 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:03.560 four results that was the most discussed in the days 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.480 and weeks after the election were Trump's improvements broadly among 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.680 non white voters, particularly non college non white voters, Hispanics, 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:15.640 black men, to some extent Asian Americans. And the argument 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.240 was that he was now building a cross racial working 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.320 class coalition, that he was making the same kind of 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.080 gains among blue collar non white voters that he had 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:25.960 earlier recorded among blue. 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:27.080 Collar white voters. 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:28.720 And you know, you fast forward a year and a 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:32.120 half and a lot of that virtually all of that 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.040 has rolled back. And because those many of those voters 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:40.440 who moved toward Trump in minority communities and Latinos were 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.720 certainly among them, I think fit into what I was 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.760 talking about before. They were primarily results voters. They were 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.480 disappointed in the results they were getting under Joe Biden. 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.480 They remembered that their cost of living was more affordable 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:54.760 under Trump. You know, you would talk to Democratic pollsters 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:56.840 in twenty four and they would all have the same 0:15:56.880 --> 0:15:59.160 phrase and say what they would describe as the nightmare 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.880 phrase they heard in focus groups, which is that from 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.200 they they would be talking to a group of Hispanic 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:08.080 or black voters and someone would say, you know, yes, 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:09.640 I think Donald Trump is insensitive. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:10.560 I think he's a racist. 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.200 But if I'm telling the truth, I had more money 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:14.720 in my pocket when he was president, and that I 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:17.640 think was what moved a lot of those voters toward him. 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.920 And now he's basically overplayed his hand on immigration and 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.720 he is facing a backlash among Latino voters on that, 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.800 and he has failed to deliver what they wanted. Most 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:30.640 the Cuban American and Central and South American diaspora in 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:34.600 Miami is just a different kind of cohort than really 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.800 any other group of Hispanic voters in the country. They're 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.120 the last ones that will move away. I mean, you're 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:43.240 looking more at places like Texas, Colorado, Nevada, even Pennsylvania. 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:46.960 It's going to be really, really important whether Republicans see 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:49.760 a regression from the games Trump scored in twenty four. 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:51.480 He had a couple of colorad AND's here at this 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.640 table actually quickly before we go to break, I do 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:57.080 want to ask you about how Iran is factoring into 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.440 all of this. You know, this is the party of 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:03.120 non interventionists, not forever wars. Are you seeing those numbers 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.479 impact even the most hardcore of Trump supports. We've been 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:08.720 talking a lot about SEPAC this week, Jeff Mason telling 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:10.560 us for the most part that support is holding their 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:12.080 giving the benefits of doubt. But are you starting to 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.280 see flickers of some doubt in that voter base. 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.080 You know, I think, like Ron was saying, we definitely 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.359 have seen these key groups that kind of propelled him 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:21.160 to victory in twenty twenty four breaking away with him, 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.080 especially when it comes to white men, white non college 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:27.480 educated men. And this is also playing into the Iran factor. 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:30.720 The number one thing in polling that adults say is 0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:33.359 that they do not want to see gas prices rise, 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.080 and so I think that is a big factor here. 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:38.520 They do not want to see the repercussions of this 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.800 war come back home, especially when it comes to cost 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.680 of living in affordability issues that are affecting their everyday lives. 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.840 So we do see that MAGA voters are predominantly still 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.200 in the corner, but there has been some slippage in 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:52.800 the polls among Republicans when it comes to things like 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:56.199 the war in Iran, and that combination of foreign you know, 0:17:56.280 --> 0:18:00.720 quagmire abroad combined with prices skyrocketing at home is not 0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:03.399 a good combination for the president with whether it's his 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:04.919 voters or other voting blocks. 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:07.000 Habe people only got about thirty seconds, but our den 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:08.200 is going to take advantage of that. 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.280 I think absolutely. I mean, and they have no political 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.040 blame over this in the way they did with the 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:16.280 Iraq War when so many Democratic senators and House members voted, 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.400 So this is sort of they can have their hands 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:19.640 clean of this. If this does not. 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:22.879 Go well, all right, Abby, Ron, Ashley, stay with us. 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.040 We're gonna have a lot more ahead on Bloomerg this week, 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.080 and we're gonna talk about DHS more Ron and where we 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.760 all go. As again, it's always there's always another election 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:35.120 around the corner. Stay with us for more on Bloomberg 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:35.680 this weekend. 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:36.560 Right after this. 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.720 Back with us are Appy Lives and Rob Brownstein Ashley 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:52.360 Coning as well. 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:53.679 Appy, let me start with you. 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.040 We've been through this week where the Senate stayed up 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:58.000 late and the House stayed up late, and there was 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:00.680 no resolution. We stayed up late well as we watched 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:02.800 all this unfil this royal and conflict about funding the 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:06.159 Department of Homeland Security. Now members of both those houses 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:08.320 go back to their home districts for a two week 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.040 recess where they're going to hear from constituents. The lines remain, 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:15.280