1 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 2 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisn't Thal and I'm Tracy Allaway. Tracy, you know, 3 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: it's interesting having watched the aftermath of two separate crises 4 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: now because you start to see similarities and the sort 5 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: of stories that people tell after each one of them. Yeah, 6 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: that's true. Um. I also think it's really interesting to 7 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: see how much opinions kind of change in retrospect. So 8 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: I remember, for instance, after the two thous financial crisis, 9 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 1: people would get upset if you suggested that quantitative easing 10 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 1: could have an impact on stocks, Like if you actually 11 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 1: said there was an asset substitution effect, people would think 12 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: that you were crazy. I remember writing an alphabel post 13 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: on this at the time and getting a bunch of 14 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: comments saying it was complete, letely wrong. And now, of course, 15 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: the idea that QUI pushes up stocks, you know, most 16 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: people sort of accept that, even if it may or 17 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: may not be true. But yeah, you're right, you're really 18 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,119 Speaker 1: ahead of the curve back then. I thank you. I'm 19 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: just humble bragging like talking about asset substitution effects. But 20 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: I also think like the dominant narrative like out there 21 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: just in the sphere of the broad things, is all 22 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: this idea of like QUEI would inevitably lead to inflation, 23 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: maybe even hyper inflation all this government spending and obviously 24 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: we saw a lot of talk around that, and we 25 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: see a lot of talk about it now, just this 26 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: idea that government policies, particularly US government policy, is reckless 27 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: and we're going to destroy the value of the dollar. Yeah, 28 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: And to offset what I just said about that Alphabel post, 29 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I also wrote things on Alphabel about 30 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 1: the coming hyper inflation, or at least I summarized a 31 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: bunch of notes about that, you know, back in two 32 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: thousand eight, two thousand nine. But you're right, that was 33 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: sort of well, it was the big concern after two 34 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: thousand eight, and we saw it kind of come back 35 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: in with the announcement of all this additional government spending. 36 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: They're always concerns that it's going to lead to inflation, 37 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: even though we've now had you know, over a decade 38 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: of central banks missing their inflation targets. Right, So if 39 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: you ever point out it's like, actually inflation isn't mild 40 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: or whatever, you know, Quey, it's probably you know, doesn't 41 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: have much of an inflationary impact or misunderstanding the deficit. 42 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: What happens is if you say that that gold bugs 43 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: like yourself or silver bugs like your dad respond with 44 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:47,119 Speaker 1: like memes of people pushing wheelbarrows of the deutsch Mark 45 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: during the Weimarer hyper inflation and tell you why you're wrong. 46 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: Let me tell you, Joe, if the inflation ever comes, 47 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 1: I'm going to be stacking my my silver and gold 48 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 1: in your face and you're going to be very very jealous. Yeah, look, 49 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: I'm joking. You will definitely have the last level. But 50 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: if we're going to talk about, okay, the prospect of 51 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: what happened with the Weimar hyperinflation seems like, Okay, it's 52 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: probably not gonna happen. I don't think our existing policies 53 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 1: are on that route. But maybe we should actually learn 54 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: about what really happened beyond just the memes of people 55 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: pushing wheelbarrows wheelbarrows of cash. No, I totally agree, And 56 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: I also think you know, the Ymar Republic is sort 57 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: of this scary story that everyone brings up when they're 58 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: talking about inflation, and people sort of throw the term 59 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: or the name around, but actually not that many people 60 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: know exactly what happened, what drove it, and how bad 61 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: inflation actually got during that period. So I think it's 62 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: a great idea to dig into the details. Great, well, 63 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,119 Speaker 1: I am very excited about today's episode. We are going 64 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: to have a repeat guest. We talked to him back 65 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: in the spring or summer. We're gonna be speaking with 66 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: Zach Carter. He is the author of the New York 67 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: Times best selling book The Price of Peace, Money, Democracy, 68 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: and the Life of John Maynard Canes paperback coming out 69 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: April twenty and there is a section in his book 70 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: where he talks about the Wymar hyperinflation, so we thought 71 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: we would dive into that and find out what really happened. So, Zach, 72 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots. 73 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having me before we start. Have 74 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: you heard of this? I saw this on Wikipedia last 75 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: night when I was doing my research zero stroke. Have 76 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 1: you heard of that? This is the thing? It's this 77 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: is the thing. It's on Wikipedia, so it must be real. 78 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 1: There was a mental disorder diagnosed by physicians in Germany 79 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 1: during the hyper inflation. I'm just reading the page, and 80 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: the disorder was primarily characterized by the desire of patients 81 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: to write endless roads of zeros, which are referred to 82 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: as ciphers. And this is actually even John Kenneth Galbraith 83 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: in his book about Money, talks about this and there 84 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: seems to be a few references. I guess it's real. 85 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: It's kind of hard to believe, but the currently there 86 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: really was a mental affliction where people have just wrote 87 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: zeros on pages hyperinflation. I've read the gall Braith book 88 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: on Money, it's very good. I don't remember that particular episode, though. 89 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: You know, this was a totally formative event for a 90 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: lot of a lot of economic thinkers who would go 91 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,159 Speaker 1: on to have an extraordinary degree of influence to Friedrich 92 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: Hyak witnessed this from Vienna and was just totally horrified 93 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 1: and I think embarrassed by by by what happened after 94 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: the war in Germany. And I think it shaped a 95 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: lot of a lot of you know, sort of what 96 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: we now call neoliberal views about how the world works 97 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: and what the great threats to the economy and democracy are. 98 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: And obviously we still talk about it today, even when 99 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: I think it's you know, as you mentioned, I think 100 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 1: it's totally inappropriate to be to be invoking you know, 101 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: the Biber experience is something that we might have it, 102 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: you know, in the near future here, but it obviously 103 00:05:56,520 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: animates our understanding of the economy even today. Well, shall 104 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: we dive into it then and maybe start at the beginning? Um, 105 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: can you lay the scene for us of what exactly 106 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: Germany and I guess the developed world order looked like 107 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 1: going into this episode of hyper inflation. Yeah, I think 108 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: you know, when we talked about this today, there's obviously 109 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: a kind of political lens that we see this through. 110 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,919 Speaker 1: You have goldbugs and you know, inflation hawks tend to 111 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 1: be more conservative invoking this this this episode, and you 112 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: have you know, soft hearted liberals and their soft money 113 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: ways saying don't worry about it. Uh, that wasn't really 114 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: the way the politics of the time we're playing out. 115 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: There was a consensus after World War One that the 116 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: reparations duties that had been assigned to Germany, which lost 117 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 1: World War One, were too stringent, too severe, that they 118 00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: were unpaid, unpayable, and they would result in economic turmoil 119 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: for Europe and the world. And the person who issued 120 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: this critique most famously was John Maynard Kane's which is 121 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: why I write it, wrote it out in my book 122 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: Kine's in the early nineteen twenties is not this sort 123 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: of you know, hero of people like Paul Krugman and 124 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: the and the kind of center left in further political sphere. 125 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: He's He's a very conventional establishment figure in the British 126 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: government and his critique is heralded by none other than 127 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: free Ridge High. So this, this idea is not something 128 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: that is is being harbored only by know, like left 129 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: wing socialists trying to you know, bring about some sort 130 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: of egalitarian millennium. This is a very standard conventional view 131 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: within Germany and across Europe. And the size of these 132 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: duties is so large. By the Reparations Commission that's established 133 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: after World War One says Germany is getting to pay 134 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: about thirty three billion dollars. German pre war GDP is 135 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: about twelve and a half billion dollars. So this is 136 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 1: like triple the German and about butt of the economy 137 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: would be like somebody saying today, uh, you know, by 138 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: the way, the United States, you've got to run your economy, 139 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: you know, solve whatever problems you want, but you owe 140 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: seventy trillion dollars somewhere else and it's and it's got 141 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: to be paid over the next you know, several years. 142 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:18,239 Speaker 1: So these are huge, huge reparations figures that are looming 143 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: over every decision that the German government is trying to make. 144 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 1: And the German government from the end of the war 145 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: really through into the nineteen thirties is in a kind 146 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: of perpetual state of revolution um. The revolutions just just 147 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,599 Speaker 1: tend to fail. Communists like Rosa Luxembourg are murdered in 148 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: the streets in nineteen nineteen. Walter Ratha, now, who is 149 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: the foreign minister, sort of the most important diplomat in 150 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: the German government, he is murdered by by far right terrorists. 151 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: In nineteen nineteen twenty two, there is a communist uprising 152 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: in Hamburg. In Hamburger, I think is the pronunciation in 153 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 1: October three, which is just a few weeks ahead of 154 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: Hitler's famous beer hall Pusch in November of three. So 155 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: there's just an enormous amount of political turmoil happening right now. 156 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: You have hundreds of political assassinations happening every year. They 157 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: do not have conditions of political stability in Germany, and 158 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: so the political coalition that is trying to trying to govern, 159 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: is making choices with its budget to try and basically 160 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,319 Speaker 1: fend off some sort of violent takeover of the government, 161 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,599 Speaker 1: and it's and it's spending a lot of money in 162 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: order to do that, and this is creating a very 163 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: large budget deficit. So, Zach, before we go further into 164 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: the German budget, I just wanna sort of get the 165 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: background a little bit more about how the size of 166 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: the German war debt or the German reparations were established. 167 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: And you mentioned thirty three billion dollars multiple times the 168 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: size of German GDP. What where did this come from? 169 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: What were this sort of like talk a little bit 170 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 1: about how this number was established. What was the dead 171 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: sort of DENI dominated in at that time, because I 172 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: think obviously that's an important thing, and so like, you know, 173 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: where did this you know, the end of the war happens, 174 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: and then they have this number that they owe who 175 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: do they who do they owe it to? And so forth? Right, 176 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: So the the answer is it's extremely complicated. Kane's issues 177 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: his critique in a book called The Economic Consequences of 178 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 1: the Piece that comes out in nineteen nine, and an 179 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,719 Speaker 1: interesting aspect of this critique is that it's enormously persuasive, 180 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: but there actually hasn't been a formal reparations figure fixed 181 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: by the conference. They they've decided that they were going 182 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: to be enormous economic duties on on Germany, but the 183 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: peace conference at the end of the war doesn't arrive 184 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: at a final figure. It arrives at a set of 185 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: principles that are going to guarantee a very very high figure. 186 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: But the actual formal number is kicked to a reparations commission, 187 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: which is going to be sort of overseen by the 188 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 1: League of Nations, and they're going to spend the next 189 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: year or two figuring out what this number will be. 190 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: And and that number comes down from what some of 191 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 1: the calls are. I mean that there are calls for, 192 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: you know, a hundred and twenty billion dollar reparations duties 193 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: at the Paris Peace Conference. And these numbers are just 194 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: they're just totally ludicrous. They're not arrived at by making 195 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: any kind of serious attempt to calculate what Germany can 196 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: afford to pay. You just have the victors of the 197 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: war sitting down and deciding, Okay, how can we come 198 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: up with the largest number possible. Germany is responsible for 199 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 1: this terrible war that has killed all these people. Now 200 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 1: we have to make them pay. We'll come up with 201 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: the biggest figure we can and then negotiate down as 202 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: it becomes clear that this is, you know, not economically feasible. 203 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: The result of this is that you have a series 204 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: of efforts to renegotiate the actual German reparations duty over 205 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: the course of the nineteen twenties. Every year or two, 206 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: all of the major diplomats in Europe meet to try 207 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: and move this figure down a little bit from wherever 208 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: it was set the year before. And in fact this 209 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: happens right right before the hyper inflation. The British interviewed 210 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: and said, look, is thirty three billion dollar figures crazy, 211 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: Let's let's set it's at something about equal to the 212 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: pre war GDP level of twelve and a half billion. 213 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: But even this is a very large number for a 214 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 1: country that is in the thrives of revolution to be 215 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: trying to trying to meet um in terms of how 216 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: how it's paid. This is the sort of you know, 217 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: loose era of the gold standard. The gold standard comes 218 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: apart during World War One, but there is an understanding 219 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 1: that the world is going to get back on gold. 220 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 1: So you know, what is it denominated in. It's it's 221 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,959 Speaker 1: denominated in currencies that are expected to be fixed to 222 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: gold at fixed exchange rates, but are not quite there yet. 223 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: And so the understanding the true value of these numbers 224 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: becomes a little bit of a you know, a metaphysically 225 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: uncertain endeavor. But there is a consensus, and not just 226 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: on the left here, that that the figure is is 227 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: too high, and that that consent has a sort of 228 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: political significance that impacts the way currency traders who you 229 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: have these sophisticated, uh speculative currency markets that develop after 230 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 1: the war. Because the gold standard has been broken and 231 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: these currencies are not fixed to a certain amount of gold, 232 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: traders and and and markets are are relying on these 233 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: kinds of political judgments and and opinions as as they 234 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: make their you make their investments. Before the war, the 235 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: mark trade was was fixed at about four to one 236 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: to the dollar. By the end of the war it's 237 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 1: about sixty five to one. So Germany has relied on 238 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: a policy of deliberate inflation to finance it's war machine. 239 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 1: All of the governments did to some extent, but Germany 240 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: was was the most extreme um, so you know that 241 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: the dollar has has inflated quite a bit over the 242 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: course of the war two. So sixty five to one 243 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 1: against the dollar is sixty five to one against an 244 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:57,479 Speaker 1: inflated dollar. But by really, for whatever reason, the international 245 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: community has has come to a consense is that that 246 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: Germany is stabilized, and so the the the sort of 247 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: wartime and post war inflation that keeps going up and 248 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: up and up plateaus. And you you have for a 249 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: few months, in about six months in n it looks 250 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 1: like it looks like things are going to be okay. 251 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: There's about two billion dollars in international investment that comes 252 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: into into Germany through you know what we would today 253 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 1: called markets, and and this is it looks like things 254 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: are going to be okay. But then over the course 255 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: of nineteen one you have a series of political developments 256 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: which caused all of that foreign investment to evaporate and 257 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: you start seeing, um, the the inflation take off again. 258 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: The point I want to emphasize is that there are 259 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: a lot of decisions that are made by the German 260 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: government that you can criticize. If you end up in 261 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: a situation of hyper inflation. It's not because your your 262 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: finance ministers have done everything wonderfully, but they are in 263 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: a very difficult predicament. And most of the problems that 264 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: I think we associate with, the most of the problems 265 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: that are that are most directly responsible for this hyper 266 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: inflation are political problems that are reflected then in market confidence, 267 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: not uh not problems with say, you know, the quantity 268 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: of currency in circulation or the velocity of money or 269 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: things like that. So I'm really glad you brought up 270 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: the political charmoil point because I think, um, a lot 271 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: of people tend to forget that Germany was absolutely terrified 272 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: of communism in you know, the late well in the 273 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: nineteen twenties. A lot of people think they just kind 274 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: of went straight to Nazism or you know, fascism, But 275 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: actually there was this huge, huge ideological debate um that 276 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: went on for years in a real tug of war 277 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: in power. So how do you think that played out 278 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: in terms of the government spending. So they're running up 279 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: a big deficit. A big chunk of that is going 280 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: on reparations, which you just outlined very well. What else 281 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: were they spending on? So it's what we would today 282 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: call social social welfare spending in the In nineteen twenty 283 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: nine one Germany moves to an eight hour work day, 284 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 1: so people are working less than than they had been. Um, 285 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: they start paying unemployment benefits to people who don't have jobs. 286 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: And during the sort of heavy inflation era right after 287 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: the war nineteen y where all the countries of the 288 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: world are having heavy inflation, not hyper inflation, uh, the 289 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: unemployment rate is very high. So there's a lot of 290 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: people who you know, are having trouble paying their bills 291 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: and making ends meet. And they're offering healthcare and food 292 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: relief to the sick and the poor. And there are 293 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 1: a lot of sick and poor people in Germany. The 294 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: Allied blockade at the end of the war probably killed 295 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: four thousand people through star vation. And in the cities, 296 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: in particular in Germany and Austria, you have a lot 297 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:10,239 Speaker 1: of hunger and just very very serious destitution, uh, in 298 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: a way that I think people living in European cities 299 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,400 Speaker 1: today have trouble imagining. So the material conditions are really 300 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 1: quite severe, and they are spending quite a bit of 301 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 1: money on these things. But the the government, which is 302 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: sort of a center left government, feels like it doesn't 303 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: have a choice. It it feels like it's political coalition 304 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 1: will fall fall apart if it doesn't find some way 305 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 1: to materially support all of these citizens. The threat, for 306 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: most people is perceived as being from the left more 307 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: so than than from the right. I think in the 308 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 1: in the ruling elite. At first at Paris, people forget 309 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: Canes before he became this this you know, sort of 310 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: hero for American liberalism. His his chief ally at the 311 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 1: Paris Peace Conference was the man named Herbert Hoover. Uh 312 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: and Herbert Hoover, of course, would become sort of this 313 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 1: Bettan noir in the Great Depression. But in nineteen nineteen 314 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: they agreed that there was this terrible threat from both 315 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: the left and the right of authoritarian violence if there 316 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:18,479 Speaker 1: wasn't some way to feed and clothe the people of 317 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 1: of the of Germany, that this this sort of Soviet 318 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: Hoover was particularly worried about the Soviet tide um sweeping 319 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: across Germany. Cames was a little more worried about a 320 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: right wing tide, but there was a consensus that authoritarianism 321 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 1: was coming if the sort of moderate liberal democracy couldn't 322 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 1: couldn't prove that it worked with with with citizens in 323 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 1: the streets. So they're paying a lot on these social 324 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 1: welfare things, and and they may they may be paying 325 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 1: too much. I mean, the the inflation that takes over 326 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: before things get really out of control. By ninety two, 327 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: I think prices increase about forty times. I mean, this 328 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: is this is not you know, a slight amount of 329 00:18:56,320 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: inflation that that we're talking about. But you know, the 330 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: the coalition in Germany, you have very conservative members of 331 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: of the Reichstag, people like Hugos stins Stein's I get 332 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: my German pronunciation mixed up, but this is like a 333 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: coal baron who's saying, your lives are worth more than money. 334 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 1: If we don't, if we the only the only choice 335 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: we have for for keeping this government together is to 336 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: inflate the currency. We just we can't, you know, we 337 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: we don't have the productive power right now after this 338 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 1: war to to to make this happen with ordinary wealth. 339 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: So you know, we joked in the beginning about how 340 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 1: every time there is a stimulus here KUEI whatever, people 341 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:44,640 Speaker 1: invoke comparisons to why my hyper inflation. But one difference 342 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: it sounds like is you know we might get inflation here. 343 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: I mean, there are many differences, but we might get 344 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,719 Speaker 1: inflation here as a potential cost of doing stimulus or 345 00:19:55,760 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 1: whatever it sounds like. Then it was not seen as 346 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 1: a potential cost, but that was the deliberate strategy that 347 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: that was. Inflation was seen as the path out, as 348 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: opposed to perhaps an acceptable cost of something else we 349 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: want to achieve, which is how people would probably characterize 350 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: current US macro policy. Yeah. I think in the current context, 351 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 1: people who declare with absolute certainty what they think the 352 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 1: consequences of running these multi trillion dollar seems programs are 353 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: going to be. I think that certainty is difficult to 354 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: take seriously. But the the idea that there is, you know, 355 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 1: a risk that's worth taking seems to be the the 356 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: assessment from from people who are supportive of these these packages. 357 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: They're not saying, you know, we're certain to get double 358 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 1: digit inflation if we do this, so let's do it 359 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: because double digit inflation is good and that's the best 360 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: outcome we can hope for. Um. You know, I think 361 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: Ratha now, shortly before he was murdered, just a matter 362 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,360 Speaker 1: of hours, he's in this this big meeting, they're talking 363 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: about the budget, and he says, our economy is is 364 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 1: like a city that's surrounded by an army and the 365 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: only way out is to is to break through the 366 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: lines somehow, And it's going to be really costly, and 367 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: we're gonna lose a lot of soldiers if we break 368 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,159 Speaker 1: through this line, but it's the only chance we we have. 369 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: So that's how he feels about the hyper inflation. This 370 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,919 Speaker 1: this is not great, but it's what we've got and 371 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: if we don't do it, we're going to be destroyed. Uh. 372 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,360 Speaker 1: And you know, maybe he was wrong, but the political 373 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: judgment at the time, Uh, they don't have a whole 374 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 1: lot of good options. And of course brath Now is 375 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: literally assassinated by right wing death squads hours after making 376 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 1: that comment. So the the parallels, there just aren't a 377 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: lot of parallels politically between what's happening in Weimar, Germany 378 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 1: and any of the crises that we've seen, certainly in 379 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: the United States and in the decades since. But the 380 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 1: the devastation that results from the hyper inflation is so 381 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,199 Speaker 1: severe that I think people thinkers from this time are 382 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: are are scarred by it in ways that are are 383 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: are hard to understand, and for for people who didn't 384 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: live through it. Can you talk a little bit about 385 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: how um class played into inflation, because I'm sure people, 386 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: you know, different segments of society and the political sphere 387 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: had different opinions, um about this policy and inflation. You 388 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,679 Speaker 1: mentioned Hugostons just then as someone who was, you know, 389 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 1: sort of fighting for full employment. But you know, it's 390 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: also true he was a huge industrialist, and I think 391 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: conglomerates did pretty well during an inflationary era. So some 392 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: people have argued that he was basically just talking out 393 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: of self interest because if he got inflation, it would 394 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:41,360 Speaker 1: benefit him. So I'm just curious, like, how did the 395 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 1: different segments of society feel about this policy, Like if 396 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: you were going to look at the middle class, the 397 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 1: upper class, and the lower class, can you segment it out. 398 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 1: I don't know if if class in Germany at this 399 00:22:55,720 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 1: period of time translates as obviously to us in our 400 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: own momentum as I think we might intuitively want it to. 401 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 1: I think your your point there, though, that that someone 402 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: like Dennis is talking his own book is almost almost 403 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: certainly true. Um, it certainly is true. But I also 404 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 1: think a lot of these people, you know, people have 405 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: a tennessee to believe things that benefit right, um, and 406 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: and Cennis is otherwise the conservative, So you you do 407 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 1: have these these kind of conservative thinkers thinking this, this 408 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,479 Speaker 1: could be smart policy even you know, and and and 409 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 1: good for me if you look at the unemployment rate 410 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: though during this kind of fortyfold increase in prices that 411 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: happens in nineteen twenty two, and and here we are 412 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 1: not talking about the hyper inflation, but with forty fold 413 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: increases in prices, I mean, this is an enormous, enormous 414 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 1: inflationary period, but this is not anywhere near what's going 415 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,479 Speaker 1: to happen in nine. But over this period, wages are 416 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 1: basically keeping pace with price increases, so people don't feel 417 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,959 Speaker 1: materially poor. The people who are really getting screwed are 418 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: people who have large holdings of assets that are demarcated 419 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 1: in in the mark um. And even then, if you 420 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: can dump your marks for something else, and you know, 421 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,199 Speaker 1: if you can trade them for gold or other currencies, um, 422 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 1: you can live pretty well. There's there's a remarkable phenomenon 423 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: of foreigners living in Berlin at this period of time 424 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,199 Speaker 1: where because the prices in marks are just going totally crazy, 425 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: if you have a lot of foreign currency, you can 426 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: live like a total king if you're hanging out in 427 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 1: in in the Winmar world, which was just you know, 428 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 1: despite all the violence, a really culturally vibrant, vibrant place. 429 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: But the unemployment rate is is for the first time 430 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 1: in several years since the war has has basically come 431 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 1: down to a reasonable level. You don't have the high 432 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 1: joblessness in Germany during this period that you have, say 433 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: in in Britain, and Britain's basically having suffering from double 434 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 1: digit unemployment from the end of the war to the 435 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 1: outbreak of World War two. Same thing in France. So 436 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: so you have an inflationary problem that is that is 437 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: hurting German investors, but for ordinary people trying to go 438 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: to work, it's it's kind of annoying to have to 439 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: keep track of prices, but but wages really are keeping 440 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 1: a pace and and people are working, so it doesn't 441 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 1: feel like a material disaster in the moment. And I 442 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: think that that alleviates a lot of the political pressure 443 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: to adopt, you know, what we would consider a more 444 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: sound or fiscally responsible budgetary position, because economically it's it 445 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 1: seems to be working for most people. So this gets 446 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 1: to h and you talk about this in your book, 447 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 1: like this early stages of it. There is a lot 448 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: of um extreme inflation, but wages are roughly keeping track 449 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: and also unemployment is low. So when does it become 450 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 1: this sort of hyper inflation of legends cash and wheelbarrows, 451 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 1: words like numbers like quadrillion being thrown about, like when 452 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: does that start to again and why. There's a very 453 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 1: clear break that happens when the French government decides to 454 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:13,959 Speaker 1: occupy the rural valley. And this is territory you know, 455 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: in the border between France and Germany. It is the 456 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 1: industrial core of the German economy. That's where all of 457 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: the mining and industrial wealth of Germany is. And under 458 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: the Treaty of Versailles that ended World War One, if 459 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: Germany fails to make its reparations payments on time, on schedule, 460 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 1: then France will get the right to take over this territory. 461 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,439 Speaker 1: And Germany misses its reparations payments even under the lower 462 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: negotiated figures of the of the Reparations Commission. In these 463 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 1: further efforts from the British government to lower even the 464 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 1: reparations commissions amount, that the German government misses the payment 465 00:26:55,960 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 1: and France essentially invades, and when that happens, you have 466 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: a total loss of international confidence in the mark. It 467 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 1: happens very quickly, uh. You start seeing the mark uh 468 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: instead of big sixty five or or a thousand to one, 469 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: It starts being measured in millions against the dollar. And 470 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: this continues in part because of the political situation, in 471 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 1: part because of the German government's choice to finance the 472 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: campaign of what they call passive resistance to the occupation, 473 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 1: which basically means paying a lot of money to people 474 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 1: who don't want to leave the real value because you 475 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,199 Speaker 1: know once the French troops will arrive. So Germany had 476 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 1: been running about a seven fifty million a year budget deficit. 477 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:50,360 Speaker 1: That doubles to one point five billion dollars a year um. 478 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 1: Again a large deficit, but you know, about ten percent 479 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 1: of of pre war h G d P a little 480 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,119 Speaker 1: more than ten percent, so so not something completely ludicrous, 481 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: but they are they are going deeper into into the 482 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 1: deficit territory than they already were, and of course they're 483 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 1: having forty fold price increases beforehand. So I don't think 484 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,919 Speaker 1: when I say, I don't think it's completely ludicrous, it's 485 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 1: it's a very large deficit um. But it's not like 486 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:24,400 Speaker 1: you can dollar for dollar ce. Okay, this currency issuece 487 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 1: led to this amount of inflation. There is a huge 488 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: loss of confidence in the political project of of Waimar Germany. 489 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 1: And then there's no reason that the the the government 490 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: is giving to have any confidence in their willingness to 491 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: abate from inflationary policies as as that that collapse is happening. 492 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: So the German government invades the mark just immediately spirals 493 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 1: out of control and it and it just goes into 494 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: complete crazy crazy land. After this, it's I think it 495 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: they stop measuring when it gets to about a trillion 496 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: to one sometime in n marks two dollars. So it's 497 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 1: it's a political collapse, is what happens. And you have, 498 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,720 Speaker 1: of course the Beer Hall pushed from from Hitler and Ludendorff, 499 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: which is more famous than the the uprising in Hamburg. 500 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: But but politically the government is just is just wiped 501 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 1: out and and they have to essentially start over. I 502 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 1: think one important factor here, uh is it's not just 503 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: one important factor, but an important factor here is is 504 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 1: the way that this is viewed internationally. The hyper inflation 505 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: is not in the moment viewed as just merely an 506 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 1: extreme act of recklessness by the German government. There is 507 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: an immediate effort to renegotiate the Treaty of Versailles and 508 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 1: lower the reparations obligations to Germany. When this happens, and 509 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 1: the French invasion is viewed as as politically illegitimate um 510 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 1: not just within Germany, but by the Americans and by 511 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 1: the British government. And that's that's really quite something, because 512 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 1: of course, the Americans and the French and the British 513 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: were allies during the war. They crafted the peace treaty, 514 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 1: and France was really just abiding by the terms of 515 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,239 Speaker 1: the treaty. Germany didn't make good on its reparations, and 516 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: France said, okay, well we're gonna We're gonna go in, 517 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: and all of France's allies abandoned it and and basically 518 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: say Germany is in the right here. We've we've got 519 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: to to renegotiate this. And the renegotiations become known as 520 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: as the Young Plan, and it's it's it's officially performed 521 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 1: by a couple of JP Morgan bankers, but they're really 522 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 1: acting as sort of deputies for the U S. Born 523 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: policy establishment, and this this changes the way that the 524 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 1: Germany is governed, and so the politics change and and 525 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 1: the currency can be can be stabilized, but first you 526 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: you basically have to have a completely new international political 527 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 1: regime and consensus um that replaces the old one and 528 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: and and that until that happens, Germany cannot be stabilized financially. 529 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 1: So I have what might be a dumb question just 530 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 1: before we get into you know what actually resolved this 531 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: inflationary episode. But during the worst of the price increases, 532 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 1: how were people actually keeping track of prices? Because you know, nowadays, 533 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 1: if you think about inflation, we've got a bunch of indicase, obviously, 534 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 1: but also if the cost of your cup of coffee 535 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: like increased tenfold while you were drinking it, I think 536 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 1: everyone would you know, probably photographed their receipt and put 537 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: it on social media and talk about it, and we'd 538 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: have almost instantaneous knowledge that inflation was happening. But I 539 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 1: can't really imagine what it was like back then, Like 540 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: how did people actually monitor, you know, how quickly prices 541 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 1: for things were changing. They couldn't, is the answer. I think. 542 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 1: Over the course of you could you could you could 543 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 1: go into the grocery store one day and say, okay, 544 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:55,720 Speaker 1: well this is how much you know, a bag of 545 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: flower costs, and the next day it's even higher. Um It, 546 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 1: just the money became became worthless, and so you had 547 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,800 Speaker 1: you had people. You had huge theft and looting problems 548 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,480 Speaker 1: where people just steal from stores and then go into 549 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: um i would are sometimes referred to as flea markets. 550 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 1: But you basically had barter in the streets where ordinary 551 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 1: people trying to make ends meet, We're having to trade 552 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 1: goods for goods instead of paying with with wheelbarrows full 553 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,400 Speaker 1: of cash. I mean, workers were still being paid in 554 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,000 Speaker 1: these giant stacks of money, but you couldn't really do 555 00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 1: anything with them. I mean you're talking about millions of 556 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 1: marks to you know, to pay for a sandwich or 557 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 1: something at a diner. I mean, how how do you 558 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 1: get that stuff across the counter? But you just can't. 559 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: So so you do have this this this kind of 560 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 1: funny wheelbarrow thing, but that's mostly workers taking their cash 561 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 1: home from work that they then can't do anything with 562 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 1: the actual terms of commerce. The commerce becomes a barter 563 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 1: system and and you have you have a total breakdown. 564 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 1: You know, I asked at the beginning, um, if you 565 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: had heard of a zero stroke, and you said, no, 566 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 1: I don't even know. I'm like, I'm not totally convinced 567 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 1: this is real. Like, even though apparently it was written about, 568 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: it still seems kind of crazy. You could get why 569 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 1: this was like such a i mean obviously such a 570 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 1: scarring thing that it still dominates discourse till this day. 571 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,640 Speaker 1: And of course we know the Germans to this day 572 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 1: remain sort of like famous for their commitment to more 573 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 1: like a hard money approach. I mean it was just 574 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 1: you know, complete societal devastation, yes, and it was humiliating 575 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 1: to people in Germany. I mean, the national pride was 576 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 1: was completely They just lost a war, which was you know, 577 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: people don't like to lose wars, and and now they 578 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 1: were sort of an international laughing stock. They they couldn't 579 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 1: even they couldn't even run a monetary economy. And Germany 580 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 1: had been prior to the war, you know, the if 581 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 1: not the industrial powerhouse of Europe, one of the two 582 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,800 Speaker 1: alongside Britain. It was it was, you know, a major 583 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:19,080 Speaker 1: rising superpower in world affairs, and and suddenly it's it's 584 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 1: just a complete, a complete mess and and you know, 585 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 1: you have people on the streets, you know, talking about 586 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 1: exchange rates and and concerned with these things that have 587 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 1: nothing to do with the course of ordinary life and 588 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 1: a prosperous society. Uh so, yeah, it's it's a it's 589 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 1: something that I mean Freacher Hide never forgets it. He 590 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 1: carries this with him for for the rest of his life. 591 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 1: And and it's it's not just you know, the blow 592 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,719 Speaker 1: to national pride is not just on the right. It's 593 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 1: it's not just people like Hitler. People like Hitler are 594 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 1: able to to to rise to power because there is 595 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:59,799 Speaker 1: a widespread feeling of of of resentment and and humiliation 596 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 1: across German society. It makes it very difficult for social 597 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,840 Speaker 1: democracy in in its sort of more moderate modes, to 598 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,280 Speaker 1: to sustain itself. So before we get to the legacy 599 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 1: of ymar hyper inflation, can can we go through what 600 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 1: exactly ended it? Or like how did it all come 601 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,440 Speaker 1: to a halt, Because it's not like the government just 602 00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 1: sat by waiting for this to pass. They did actively 603 00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,839 Speaker 1: try to do things to mitigate it, and so did 604 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 1: the international community, as you already mentioned by you know, 605 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:34,759 Speaker 1: looking at reparations and lowering them, So what worked and 606 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 1: what didn't, it's an international fix. And then and then 607 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: there's there's essentially a wipeout of the currency and a 608 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:46,239 Speaker 1: starting from scratch. So the German government never stops its 609 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,240 Speaker 1: campaign of passive resistance. So it's it's one point five 610 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:55,120 Speaker 1: billion dollar or deficit is continuing, and the idea that 611 00:35:55,200 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 1: the French occupation is illegitimate um is held across the 612 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 1: political spectrum in Germany. Nobody wants, No politician wants from 613 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 1: any any party wants to be caught saying, you know, 614 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 1: they don't support resistance to this unlawful thing that the 615 00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,359 Speaker 1: French government has not even though of course it's it's 616 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: perfectly legal under international law. What what happens is a 617 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,880 Speaker 1: new currency, but a new currency with a new political milieu, 618 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 1: which is the Young Plan UM. And the Young Plan 619 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:29,279 Speaker 1: is essentially a program of of issuing large loans to 620 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,759 Speaker 1: France and Germany, uh so that both France and Germany 621 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 1: stopped complaining about the terms of the treaty. The reason 622 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: German reparations are so high during the war is partly 623 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,760 Speaker 1: just you know, Victor's sort of excess, but also because 624 00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 1: there's really serious damage that's been done, particularly in France, 625 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,759 Speaker 1: and so there's there's a very expensive project of of 626 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,400 Speaker 1: rebuilding that needs to take place, and the French economy 627 00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,279 Speaker 1: has been damaged in such way that's hard to do 628 00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 1: with domestic capital. So getting money from Germany helping it's rebuild, 629 00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,520 Speaker 1: having France then pay its war debts to Britain, the 630 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 1: United States, the United States ends up with all this money. 631 00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 1: At the end, the obvious player to support Europe through 632 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,520 Speaker 1: this period is the United States. And so with the 633 00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,439 Speaker 1: Young Plan, I think there's a two hundred million dollar 634 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,280 Speaker 1: loan to Germany and a one billion dollar loan to France. 635 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 1: And this matters not only financially because Germany can then 636 00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:24,400 Speaker 1: afford to start, you know, actually meeting obligations with money 637 00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,160 Speaker 1: that isn't printed out of thin air. Um, it matters 638 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 1: symbolically because the United States has come in and said, okay, 639 00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,919 Speaker 1: we get it. We need to support Europe here and 640 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,200 Speaker 1: if we don't, everything will fall apart. And so this 641 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:41,200 Speaker 1: buys several years of relative economic stability in Europe. Um 642 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 1: and you you have this this system where essentially the 643 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,080 Speaker 1: United States lends a lot of money to Germany through 644 00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 1: different channels, Germany pays you know, some form of reparations 645 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 1: duties to France and to Britain, and then Britain pays 646 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: the war debts that it's accumulated over the course of 647 00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,279 Speaker 1: nine to nineteen nineteen to the United States, which then 648 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 1: has all this money which it lends back to Germany. 649 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,959 Speaker 1: So this cycle of funds keeps going and basically until 650 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,439 Speaker 1: you have financial crises that that unwind it and uh, 651 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 1: and then you have the Great Depression. You have twenty 652 00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 1: years of economic dysfunction, but a relative period of stability 653 00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,759 Speaker 1: here once the United States steps in and says we're 654 00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:22,000 Speaker 1: going to pay to keep your up afloat. So in 655 00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:26,200 Speaker 1: the in the folk history of Weimar Germany that gets 656 00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,880 Speaker 1: told on the Internet through memes, it's like Germany printed 657 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,280 Speaker 1: a bunch of money and then that was really terrible, 658 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,480 Speaker 1: and uh, then the Nazis came to power because that 659 00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,520 Speaker 1: was so terrible And doesn't sound like there's actually the 660 00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 1: correct sequence of things. When do in this sort of 661 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:46,200 Speaker 1: like the sequence of things, what are the conditions prior 662 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,840 Speaker 1: to you know, sort of between the massive hyper inflation 663 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,719 Speaker 1: and then what you described, and then the conditions that 664 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,879 Speaker 1: did in fact sort of precede the rise of the Nazis. 665 00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 1: It's a long period of time. Uh So, it's it's 666 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,399 Speaker 1: hard to it's hard to classify it as one particular thing. 667 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,560 Speaker 1: But i'm our Germany has its ups and downs like 668 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:10,839 Speaker 1: the rest of um of Europe over this period. But 669 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,120 Speaker 1: the second half of the nineteen twenties is much more 670 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,880 Speaker 1: prosperous and much more stable than the first half. It 671 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:24,200 Speaker 1: is the financial turmoil of the early nineteen thirties that 672 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,640 Speaker 1: really unwinds things and and brings the Nazis to power. 673 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,880 Speaker 1: In nineteen thirty you have a huge run on a 674 00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,000 Speaker 1: bank called Credit on Stalt in Vienna. And Credit on 675 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:40,520 Speaker 1: Stalled is a very large, politically connected bank. It's it's 676 00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,720 Speaker 1: got people from all of the big European banking families 677 00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,920 Speaker 1: on the board. It's not so much the size that matters, 678 00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 1: by the sort of prestige of the institution. If this 679 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,960 Speaker 1: bank could fail, think about what this means for the 680 00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,759 Speaker 1: Austrian economy. And on the gold standard, of course, if 681 00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,520 Speaker 1: government spend too much, they can run out of gold 682 00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,000 Speaker 1: and their currency can be destroyed. And there's a few 683 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,160 Speaker 1: year that is sparked among investors when Credit on st 684 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,040 Speaker 1: Stealth fails in nineteen thirty that the Austrian government is 685 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: going to spend so much money supporting its banking system 686 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 1: that they will no longer be able to support gold convertibility, 687 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,120 Speaker 1: and so people start dumping Austrian bonds and an Austrian currency. 688 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,120 Speaker 1: You have a run on the shilling that quickly spreads 689 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,479 Speaker 1: to a run on the German mark. Because, of course 690 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:25,239 Speaker 1: the economies of Germany and Austria are closely intertwined. So 691 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,319 Speaker 1: the idea that Austria won't be able to meet its 692 00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:31,279 Speaker 1: obligations creates fears that Germany will will support it and 693 00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,960 Speaker 1: not be able to meet its obligations, and this eventually 694 00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,800 Speaker 1: spreads to a run on the British pound for similar reasons, 695 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,279 Speaker 1: so the idea of being a British foreign investment in 696 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:45,760 Speaker 1: Germany will will make the British untenable. So you very quickly, 697 00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:50,920 Speaker 1: over the course of nineteen thirty have a total collapse 698 00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:54,360 Speaker 1: of the entire international financial system. In this sort of 699 00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,440 Speaker 1: latter stage of the gold standard. This by the nineteen thirties, 700 00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,800 Speaker 1: everybody's back on gold. It's not working super well, but 701 00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,640 Speaker 1: it hasn't been a disaster. But suddenly, with this financial crisis, 702 00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 1: everybody's wrecked and the gold standard is gone, and you 703 00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:11,719 Speaker 1: have a period of absolutely crushing deflation that takes over 704 00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,000 Speaker 1: across all of Europe. That there has been deflation for 705 00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,480 Speaker 1: much of the nineteen twenties, but it accelerates dramatically in 706 00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,400 Speaker 1: nineteen thirty and nineteen thirty one with the collapse of 707 00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,480 Speaker 1: the European financial system. This is also happening in the 708 00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:28,520 Speaker 1: United States after the big precipitous event in the United 709 00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:30,960 Speaker 1: States is the crash of the stock market in ninety nine, 710 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:35,320 Speaker 1: which most financial historians now I think except is connected 711 00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:39,480 Speaker 1: to the financial crisis thirty one in Europe. But these 712 00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,360 Speaker 1: these events are are basically doing away with the banking 713 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 1: system's ability to meet that the industrial demands of society, 714 00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:51,520 Speaker 1: and so you have terrible deflation that takes hold and massive, 715 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,040 Speaker 1: massive unemployment, and the period that we now know we 716 00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,279 Speaker 1: not think of as the Great Depression sets in. And 717 00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,640 Speaker 1: and that's that's where that's where Hitler comes from. Economically, 718 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,680 Speaker 1: you know, there's all sorts of other cultural things happening 719 00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:04,719 Speaker 1: in Germany, and the anti Semitism is obviously very well known, 720 00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,960 Speaker 1: but but the economic grounds there there is widespread misery 721 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:10,759 Speaker 1: in Germany at this period of time, but it's a 722 00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 1: different kind of the misery is similar, but it's a 723 00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:17,600 Speaker 1: different cause than than in Um in nineteen three. You've 724 00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:23,319 Speaker 1: gone from hyper inflation to very severe deflation Ino. So 725 00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,040 Speaker 1: you've mentioned this a couple of times already, But this 726 00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:30,640 Speaker 1: idea that the whole Um episode had a really big 727 00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,120 Speaker 1: impact on a lot of economists at the time, and 728 00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,200 Speaker 1: these economists, of course went on to have a really 729 00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:40,319 Speaker 1: big impact on economics itself for you know, decades to come. 730 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:45,120 Speaker 1: But can you walk us through the legacy of ymar inflation, 731 00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,960 Speaker 1: like how did it actually end up shaping and impacting 732 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:54,000 Speaker 1: economic thought and policy afterwards? I think it's a really 733 00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,920 Speaker 1: complicated question because economics is always kind of moving by 734 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,399 Speaker 1: fits and starts in different directions. At the same time, 735 00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,319 Speaker 1: I think it causes a kind of a kind of 736 00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:10,000 Speaker 1: crisis within the sort of liberal broad enlightenment liberal tradition 737 00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,319 Speaker 1: that had not been anticipated ahead of the war. So 738 00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:17,319 Speaker 1: people like Hyak and Canes were very much simpatico in 739 00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,120 Speaker 1: nineteen twelve nineteen thirteen. I think they had very similar 740 00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:24,440 Speaker 1: views of the world. Hyak was enamored with the glories 741 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:30,480 Speaker 1: of the sort of pre war Austrian Empire. Canes Is 742 00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,880 Speaker 1: is very taken with the glories of the British Empire UM. 743 00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,239 Speaker 1: But they have very divergent reactions to what happens. From 744 00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:41,200 Speaker 1: three onward, they even agree on, you know, with what 745 00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,560 Speaker 1: is that, they even agree with the problems with the 746 00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,719 Speaker 1: Treaty of Versailles. But but from the hyper inflation moment 747 00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:51,560 Speaker 1: on they take totally different interpretations of of what has 748 00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,440 Speaker 1: gone wrong and what needs to be fixed. Kines comes 749 00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:58,160 Speaker 1: to believe that governments need to support their economies in 750 00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,120 Speaker 1: order to prevent the kind of pullical chaos that has 751 00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:04,560 Speaker 1: unfolded in Germany, and how it comes to believe that 752 00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:09,279 Speaker 1: it's this irresponsible spending of the German government on the 753 00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:13,560 Speaker 1: social welfare programs which invited the catastrophe to begin with. 754 00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,920 Speaker 1: So they have totally opposite views of what the source 755 00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,200 Speaker 1: of the the hyper inflation was. And of course, you know, 756 00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,520 Speaker 1: data and things like this are nowhere near as precise 757 00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,520 Speaker 1: um as they are today. And even today, you know, 758 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:31,239 Speaker 1: the exact same set of data can spark wildly divergent 759 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:36,560 Speaker 1: interpretations from people in economics UM. But both both Highkan 760 00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:40,360 Speaker 1: Kines have have I think pretty um compelling stories to 761 00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,160 Speaker 1: tell about about what went wrong. I mean, the German 762 00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,560 Speaker 1: government did spend an enormous amount of money. It was 763 00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:50,120 Speaker 1: on social welfare programs. And Uh. If you are inclined 764 00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,400 Speaker 1: to believe that, you know, we we live in a 765 00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:56,440 Speaker 1: hard world and um inequalities is kind of a fact 766 00:44:56,480 --> 00:45:00,200 Speaker 1: of nature, not a not a political choice, then it 767 00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,680 Speaker 1: looks like the German government was was reckless and doing 768 00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:06,880 Speaker 1: things that that were irresponsible. If you believe that the 769 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:11,040 Speaker 1: economic possibilities for our grandchildren, as Kine's once said, are 770 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,360 Speaker 1: quasi utopian, uh, and that in fact the world is 771 00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,560 Speaker 1: richer than it's ever been before and it has the 772 00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:21,480 Speaker 1: capacity to improve life for everyone in it, UM, then 773 00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,239 Speaker 1: I think it's easier to believe that this was a 774 00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,840 Speaker 1: you know, a political disaster rather than an act of 775 00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:34,960 Speaker 1: excessive kind heartedness. UM. Within the the sort of debates 776 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,960 Speaker 1: of the of the nineteen thirties, Hiak has a lot 777 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:44,600 Speaker 1: of allies in in the British sort of economic establishment. Um. 778 00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,640 Speaker 1: He's not really a famous guy in in the nineteen thirties. 779 00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,240 Speaker 1: He becomes famous in the nineteen forties with a political 780 00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,320 Speaker 1: book called The Road to Servedom. But the real economic 781 00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:56,319 Speaker 1: leader of this school of thought that we've come to 782 00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,640 Speaker 1: associate um with high is a guy named Lionel Robbins, 783 00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,200 Speaker 1: and he's the the London School of Economics. And Robbins 784 00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,960 Speaker 1: is someone who espouses views that I think we would 785 00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:11,759 Speaker 1: today associate with with Milton Friedman or um Or Or 786 00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:15,399 Speaker 1: or Friedrich Hyake. And he's constantly fighting with Kaine's over 787 00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,239 Speaker 1: over public work spending and whether it's it's possible to 788 00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:22,000 Speaker 1: create economic growth through public works or through budget deficits, 789 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,880 Speaker 1: and within Britain, by the end of the nineteen thirties, 790 00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,920 Speaker 1: Robbins is basically recanted and said, you know, Caines was right, 791 00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,279 Speaker 1: and this view that that we come we come to 792 00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:38,840 Speaker 1: call neoliberalism is really consigned to a tiny kind of quirky, 793 00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:44,000 Speaker 1: oddball um intellectual minority. And it's not until the nineteen 794 00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:48,239 Speaker 1: seventies that this school of thought becomes dominant again. And 795 00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:52,759 Speaker 1: that's largely due to a lot of really impressive sort 796 00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:58,520 Speaker 1: of social work that that Hyak does, organizing people who 797 00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:00,640 Speaker 1: see the world the way he does, and and help 798 00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:04,719 Speaker 1: having them, you know, write papers and write books and 799 00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,200 Speaker 1: and tell stories about how the economy works that are 800 00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:12,600 Speaker 1: similar to his own worldview. So one last thing. But 801 00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,120 Speaker 1: I know we've talked a lot about whether or not 802 00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:19,480 Speaker 1: this period of history has any relevance to the financial 803 00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:23,520 Speaker 1: and economic system right now. But and you've been quite 804 00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,880 Speaker 1: clear that you don't really think it does. But is 805 00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:30,080 Speaker 1: there anything that you think we have in common now 806 00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:33,080 Speaker 1: with um? This is a really dark question with the 807 00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:36,399 Speaker 1: Weimar Republic, And it's a good question. I'm glad you asked. 808 00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:41,720 Speaker 1: Yeah you financially no, but politically yeah, I do worry. UM. 809 00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,680 Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why I wrote UM the 810 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,400 Speaker 1: Biography of Canes. When I did, I felt like after 811 00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,920 Speaker 1: the financial crisis, there's a difference between an economic crisis 812 00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:55,040 Speaker 1: that's brought on by the quick collapse of a banking 813 00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,719 Speaker 1: system and one that's brought on by, you know, a 814 00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:01,319 Speaker 1: world war. UM. So they're clearly differences. But I do 815 00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,680 Speaker 1: think we we live in a moment where we have 816 00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:07,160 Speaker 1: authoritarian violence rising not only the United States but around 817 00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:10,960 Speaker 1: the world, which makes it uh, and we're we're kind 818 00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:14,200 Speaker 1: of reluctant to see the international dimension to that, to 819 00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,040 Speaker 1: that crisis. It plays out in the United States through 820 00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:21,120 Speaker 1: the the the patterns of of history that have that 821 00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:25,080 Speaker 1: have been here. So UM, the American version of it 822 00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,920 Speaker 1: is different than the British version, or the or the 823 00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:32,440 Speaker 1: German version. But there's obviously a rising tide of authoritarian 824 00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,680 Speaker 1: um thought and authoritarian violence around the world right now, 825 00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:40,680 Speaker 1: and the the outbursts of violence in the United States 826 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,600 Speaker 1: are the sort of outbursts that looking backwards, if something 827 00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,239 Speaker 1: terrible happens, you would say, ah, that was clearly a precursor. 828 00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:49,560 Speaker 1: I think the Capitol Hill riot on January six is 829 00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,839 Speaker 1: an extremely extremely dangerous event um that most of us 830 00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:57,120 Speaker 1: don't want to think about because it's the implications of 831 00:48:57,120 --> 00:49:00,160 Speaker 1: it as as a sort of twenty one century which 832 00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:04,279 Speaker 1: event are, are really terrifying. But we do have a 833 00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,799 Speaker 1: lot of right wing resentment in the United States right now, 834 00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,279 Speaker 1: and and and we are not unique to that. That 835 00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,120 Speaker 1: was true in the nineteen twenties and thirties to UM 836 00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:17,719 Speaker 1: the rise of fascism in Germany um was not an 837 00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,960 Speaker 1: isolated event. It played out according to a set of 838 00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,799 Speaker 1: historically contingent German proclivities in Germany. But you also saw 839 00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:28,320 Speaker 1: it in Italy, you also saw it in France, in France, 840 00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:32,319 Speaker 1: in Spain, and you saw less successful versions of it 841 00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,160 Speaker 1: in in France and the United states. I mean, when 842 00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:39,320 Speaker 1: when FDR came to power in two uh, there was 843 00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:43,640 Speaker 1: an enormous amount of violence in in American society, UM, 844 00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:47,080 Speaker 1: and it wasn't obvious that the political project was going 845 00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:49,919 Speaker 1: to hold together. I hope that that's not where we're going, 846 00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:53,040 Speaker 1: but I think it would be silly to pretend that, um, 847 00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:56,359 Speaker 1: there there aren't some overtones of that of that era 848 00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:59,760 Speaker 1: in our own time. Now. I'm glad you asked that, Tracy. 849 00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,279 Speaker 1: Could I think that was a very important, very important answer, 850 00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:05,759 Speaker 1: Zach Carter, Thank you so much for coming back on 851 00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:07,960 Speaker 1: odd Luck. Thanks so much for having me, and good 852 00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:12,799 Speaker 1: luck with the release of the paperback. Thank you so much. Thanks. 853 00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:33,400 Speaker 1: That was great, Tracy. I I actually thought your question 854 00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,080 Speaker 1: at the end was the best there because I do think, 855 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:40,240 Speaker 1: like setting aside um this sort of y mar question 856 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,880 Speaker 1: for a second, like whenever I think about, like, you know, 857 00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,920 Speaker 1: what to worry um or what could cause hyperinflation, I 858 00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:50,080 Speaker 1: do think it's exactly sort of that and what what 859 00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:53,399 Speaker 1: Zach pointed out, which is like it's probably not going 860 00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:58,000 Speaker 1: to come because oh we're like you know, spent some 861 00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:01,200 Speaker 1: x amount of billions more than we should have. It 862 00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,040 Speaker 1: seems much more likely to come because, like something political, 863 00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:08,719 Speaker 1: it just causes people to lose faith in the existing system. Yeah, 864 00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:13,040 Speaker 1: I guess inflation is always and everywhere a political problem, right, Yeah, 865 00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:15,680 Speaker 1: I actually think I think, I know I'm being serious. 866 00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:18,279 Speaker 1: I know that sounds flippant, but I think there's a 867 00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,719 Speaker 1: lot of truth to that. And yeah, and I think 868 00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:25,560 Speaker 1: also this idea that Zach was talking about that you know, 869 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,160 Speaker 1: Germany didn't just go out and decide to run a 870 00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:31,840 Speaker 1: massive deficit for the sake of it and to screw 871 00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,480 Speaker 1: over all the people. It owed money too, in the 872 00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,720 Speaker 1: form of reparations, although that was of course part of it, 873 00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:40,960 Speaker 1: but a big part of the government spending also came 874 00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:44,880 Speaker 1: from these social programs which were targeted at, you know, 875 00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:49,480 Speaker 1: achieving full employment, helping people live a better life, and 876 00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:52,440 Speaker 1: also trying to make people happy to try to dampen 877 00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:56,440 Speaker 1: down that political turmoil, right that. Yeah, Like it's really 878 00:51:56,480 --> 00:52:01,759 Speaker 1: the entire combination. So the hard currency debt, uh, the 879 00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:03,720 Speaker 1: the collapse. I mean, one of the things that people 880 00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:07,160 Speaker 1: talk about is like to get true like inflation or hyperinflation, 881 00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,840 Speaker 1: you need some sort of like supply side disruption. And 882 00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:12,879 Speaker 1: so of course you had the war itself, and then 883 00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,960 Speaker 1: the French invasion after the debts weren't paid, so that 884 00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:21,680 Speaker 1: further diminished the German industrial capacity. You have the domestic 885 00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:25,279 Speaker 1: political turmoil, and Zach laid out all of the various 886 00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:29,680 Speaker 1: assassinations and uprisings and things that were happening uh during 887 00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:32,600 Speaker 1: this period. So it really was like a it was 888 00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:36,560 Speaker 1: a unique stew of very bad things that happened that 889 00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:39,239 Speaker 1: that caused this episode. Yeah, but again, like the thing 890 00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:42,080 Speaker 1: that comes through from that conversation is that inflation is 891 00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:48,319 Speaker 1: a political choice sometimes, although you can spin out of control. Yeah, right, 892 00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:51,280 Speaker 1: Like the one thing it's not is just a function 893 00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:55,239 Speaker 1: of all we want to run expansionary physical policy, Like 894 00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:59,120 Speaker 1: there could be like the political situation that forced Germany 895 00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,000 Speaker 1: to have to choose but been paying its external dads 896 00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,319 Speaker 1: and domestic dad's, Like there were there were aspects of that, 897 00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,160 Speaker 1: but it's clearly not just a sort of like you know, 898 00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,440 Speaker 1: it's not a simple it's not a policy. It's not 899 00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:14,200 Speaker 1: a simple policy thing. Um on that note, shall we 900 00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,320 Speaker 1: leave it there, Yeah, let's leave it there on that 901 00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:20,040 Speaker 1: happy Now, this has been another episode of the All 902 00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:23,000 Speaker 1: Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on 903 00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:26,200 Speaker 1: Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe wi Isn't Thought. 904 00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:29,480 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at The Stalwart. Follow 905 00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,920 Speaker 1: our guest Zach Carter. He's at Zach de Carter and 906 00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:35,799 Speaker 1: check out his book The Price of Peace, Money Democracy 907 00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:39,200 Speaker 1: in the Life of John Maynard Keynes, paperback out April. 908 00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:43,920 Speaker 1: Follow our producer Laura Carlson. She's at Laura M. Carlson. 909 00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,200 Speaker 1: Follow the Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesca Levi at Francesco Today, 910 00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,479 Speaker 1: and check out all of our podcast at Bloomberg under 911 00:53:51,480 --> 00:54:00,719 Speaker 1: the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening to