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Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am in every episode by

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional letter Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 1: Mary day after Boxing Day, saw him in did you

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Speaker 1: enjoy your Boxing Day Chat at the Premier League Games?

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Speaker 1: Other than the fact that I woke up on Boxing

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Speaker 1: Day to an alert from the airline I was flying

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Speaker 1: that my flight later that day was canceled and then

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Speaker 1: which meant the vacation we were going on was canceled,

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Speaker 1: which meant that I spent the next four hours trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out different places we could go with the

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Speaker 1: airline tickets to no avail. So I'm still in Connecticut.

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Speaker 1: It was a great day. It's a great day. I

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Speaker 1: will say I've been dreading this moment. I had my

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Speaker 1: worst betting weekend of my life, lost more money than

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Speaker 1: I ever have um the Patriots was a kick in

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Speaker 1: the dick, losing that by half a point. The next

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Speaker 1: atra point guy fumbling on the five with a minute

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Speaker 1: left to go ahead for the score. The Eagles being

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Speaker 1: up by ten twice two turnovers in the final two

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Speaker 1: minutes of the game, giving up a third and thirty

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Speaker 1: with seven minutes left, losing that game by half a point.

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Speaker 1: The Bears lost, so that was good because now that

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Speaker 1: confirmed are under for the season win total. The Colts

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Speaker 1: last night were an abomination. You know, we went two

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Speaker 1: and three, but in the contest you can update us

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Speaker 1: on where we stand on that. We lost Foxhole, we

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Speaker 1: lost Simon says, we lost the Colt. We lost big balls.

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Speaker 1: The only thing that one was your Carolina plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half Scoot troop let a truly terrible, terrible

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Speaker 1: weekend yea and again and some of it most I

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Speaker 1: would say most of it's on me. Where the Saints

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Speaker 1: were my second biggest bet, and we didn't put it

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Speaker 1: in the contest because it was two and a half

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Speaker 1: because I think the live line was three and a half.

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Speaker 1: So that sucked, but not our best showing. I would

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Speaker 1: say picking three games this late in a year on

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Speaker 1: a Tuesday comes with risk, and we walked into those risks,

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Speaker 1: especially with that cold swan Lucky. I got a decent

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Speaker 1: amount of money down on the Chargers first half, just

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Speaker 1: to get some type of hedge because I thought, when

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Speaker 1: I said on the show, I thought Nick Foles would

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Speaker 1: be rusty after not practicing with the first team for

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Speaker 1: three months. He came out through I think three interceptions

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter. So, um, just a disaster with

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Speaker 1: those games. But I don't know. I had a fun weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest with you, chat. I thought people can

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Speaker 1: playing about the games. I thought they were pretty good

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Speaker 1: games overall. Um, what was it? Three dogs covered? Like yeah,

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Speaker 1: Carol Line, it was a great game. A lot of

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Speaker 1: Carolina with a lot of New Orleans. I told you,

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Speaker 1: I told you, and I had the weirdes sleep schedule ever.

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Speaker 1: But basically, like my job is kind of a great

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Speaker 1: yard job where I told you, I basically woke up

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Speaker 1: on Friday at ten o'clock and I just worked from

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Speaker 1: whatever that was ten thirty un till one pm kickoff

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Speaker 1: Saturday betting the Panthers. I told you, I just stayed

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Speaker 1: up all night betting. Then anytime they touched three I

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Speaker 1: was betting on that it kept been at two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Uh so one of those games where when

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Speaker 1: the game kicked off, I felt so sick to my

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Speaker 1: stomach about Sam Donald and al had right now because

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Speaker 1: I think I gave it out, gave it on the show,

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Speaker 1: I gave it out on UM convinced me, and I

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Speaker 1: gave it out in my written best bets, and it

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Speaker 1: was just like a tiedier the Sam Donald. But thank

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Speaker 1: god they just ran the ball. So yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 1: always rough chat and we have a down we week

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Speaker 1: on the show, um, but somehow we just keep these bullets.

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Speaker 1: We only went two and three in the contest again,

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Speaker 1: so still high up, still on the money. Most people

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Speaker 1: laid eggs this week. Um, not ideal, but still our

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Speaker 1: worst week we've had. It is week seventeen, the worst

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Speaker 1: week we had all year's two and three, so pretty

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Speaker 1: pretty special year overall. Where are we in the contest

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Speaker 1: right now? What place I would have to look, But

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Speaker 1: I'd say we're still in the top fifty. It's like

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Speaker 1: it's it's all right there though. You know if we

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Speaker 1: if we went five and oh, we could be top five.

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Speaker 1: It's that neck and neck, um, at this point of

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Speaker 1: the year especially we already talked about these there's people

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Speaker 1: that haven't used their BIS yet, so that's a huge

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Speaker 1: advantage for them. Where they're behind us right now, they

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Speaker 1: could use that by week. I mean, you go two

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Speaker 1: and three like we just did and they jump us

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So it's really gonna come down the wire.

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Speaker 1: Um that's the goal though, like we know, the deal

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Speaker 1: is the money really drops off after the top ten.

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Speaker 1: That's I mean, we're dying, dying to get in that

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Speaker 1: top ten to get a nice pay day. So, um,

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Speaker 1: two weeks left here, Chad, and it's we're gonna run

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Speaker 1: through these lines here. It gets pretty murky coming up.

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Speaker 1: Um there there's some there's a lot of a lot

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Speaker 1: of questions. We don't know what teams are starting with.

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Speaker 1: Teams are sitting players because this week doesn't matter for

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Speaker 1: somewhere next week does, and vice versa, where this week

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Speaker 1: matters some teams and next week won't. So um, pretty

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Speaker 1: interesting week coming up here, these next two weeks. Just

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Speaker 1: be careful if you're gonna try bet early lines. Let's

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Speaker 1: get to it. Let's find our winners. Cowboys visiting the

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Speaker 1: Titans Thursday Night Football Cowboys are ten point favorites on

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Speaker 1: the road, as he would imagine early percentages bets on

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys money on the Titans. I mean, the fund

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Speaker 1: are you gonna do? You got a ten point underdog

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Speaker 1: at home on a Thursday night against a team like

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys that everyone is starting to say, Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: they're legit contenders again. And the Titans, you know, just

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Speaker 1: had a bad, ugly loss to the Texans with a

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback who looked out of his depth. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be a great, a great Biolo spot

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Speaker 1: on this Tennessee Titans. But what are we gonna do?

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Speaker 1: We don't know what rabels are gonna do. You already

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Speaker 1: said they might make a couple of decisions and just

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Speaker 1: rest guys for that game against Jacksonville because this game

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Speaker 1: truly easy relevant to them, doesn't matter if they want

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Speaker 1: or lose. All that matters is next week single with Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: So um, I don't know. We we do an Action

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Speaker 1: Island shows, We're gonna have to talk about this game

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Speaker 1: and I'll have to force some plays out. But I

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Speaker 1: really wouldn't. I honestly would just probably take a really

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Speaker 1: small stance at the ten on in Tennessee. Like you

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Speaker 1: just said, if if Derrick Henry plays, okay, that's a

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Speaker 1: big deal. If they're resting Derrick Henry, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's just like what am I doing here? Am I

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Speaker 1: really backing Tennessee? Here? Is you know, it's no no

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Speaker 1: shots to their quarterback. Like Chad just said it, the

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Speaker 1: guy can't throw the ball downfield, so it's like a

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Speaker 1: defense like Houston did. They just put literally nine men

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Speaker 1: ten men in the box, had one guy back and said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: go ahead and pass it. So um crazy, Chad that Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: That was one of my bigger bets with them on

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Speaker 1: the under for the season win totals and the jaguarston

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Speaker 1: win this division. We were dead. We were dead when

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Speaker 1: they were seven and two. Uh and you just truly

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Speaker 1: never know football. So um yeah, it's It's a week

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Speaker 1: where I wanted to be able over Tennessee, but I

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Speaker 1: just guess I ought to pass on it because I

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Speaker 1: don't really know what to do with this line. By

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Speaker 1: the way, Action Island you mentioned, presented by our friends

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel and that will be Thursday night PM. Me

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Speaker 1: Simon Joe Gallant, Vegas refund the whole gang talking about

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Speaker 1: that Thursday night football game. Actual Network ah Q, Actual

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Speaker 1: Network app YouTube. Uh Brown's Boy, that game was ugly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, I love watching these really cold weather games.

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Speaker 1: I thought it made for just fascinating looks at football.

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Speaker 1: Um and as ugly as that Saints Brown's game was,

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Speaker 1: I thought it was just really fun to see them

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Speaker 1: be so uncomfortable. Uh, DeShawn Utson chief among them. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: a half point underdogs against the Commanders. Boy run RIVERA.

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Speaker 1: They're down fourteen to seven, middle of the third five

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Speaker 1: they go for the fourth down that blew the game

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Speaker 1: wide open. That went from a tightly controlled under with

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Speaker 1: the Commanders having a shot to cover to the Commanders

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Speaker 1: getting blown out and it being like a huge, huge

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Speaker 1: cover for the over. Yeah. And I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are staying and where Washington they had a

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Speaker 1: crazy run the middle of the season, and it kind

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Speaker 1: of feels like it all flipped on him. It kind

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Speaker 1: of cut up to him where the luck ran out.

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Speaker 1: The book was out on Haineke. Obviously, if me and

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Speaker 1: Chat would have got word that they were going to

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Speaker 1: make a QB switch of Heineke struggled, it probably wouldn't

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Speaker 1: put in the contest, like knowing that Rivera had told

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Speaker 1: him that before the game. Um, I saw whatever was

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Speaker 1: Jay Glazer report that like a half hour before kickoff?

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Speaker 1: Bad spot, bad spot to put Heineke in just a

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Speaker 1: little bit of struggle. They took him out. Put Winson,

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Speaker 1: Um crazy, Washington was really ascending, Uh tied. The Giants

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Speaker 1: had to buy a week and now they've just been losing.

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Speaker 1: So I would love to take them here against the

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Speaker 1: Brown's team that they just look lost every since Watson

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Speaker 1: came back. Um was he have three touchdowns and three

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Speaker 1: games or something crazy like that, and he was terrible

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Speaker 1: the other day. Yeah, no, seriously, So I don't know

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Speaker 1: what to really do with this on another game where

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Speaker 1: it's under three. So they're stuck in me and they

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Speaker 1: want me to take Washington, So I probably will, but

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Speaker 1: no real read. Both these teams just you know, not

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Speaker 1: that their seasons are over for their Browns, but their

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Speaker 1: season is. Washington still has a chance of the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: So I guess I give the slight lean towards Washington here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Washington with Carson Wentz or table behind

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Speaker 1: the key right now is a strong play like if

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Speaker 1: we're talking, if we're talking contests, we've gotta go five

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Speaker 1: and oh uh, you know we don't get any more

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Speaker 1: bye weeks. Every game counts for us. We're trying to

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Speaker 1: get in the money. We're not putting Washington in there.

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Speaker 1: It's a nice matchup though, where you can't run at all.

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Speaker 1: Its forty niners and on the flip side of the Browns,

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Speaker 1: anyone's gonna run on them. So Robinson, that's a great

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Speaker 1: matchup for a guy who's been outstanding these last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks. So that's another where it's like, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: break this one down, look more into I do think

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Speaker 1: there might be a big, big advantage in the trenches

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Speaker 1: towards this Washington team. Especially. I know Chase Young didn't

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Speaker 1: do much last week, but that's that's a big deal

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Speaker 1: getting him back without Washington front. He actually played pretty well.

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Speaker 1: He had a couple of nice plays when he did play.

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Speaker 1: Did you see him liked up or no? No, no,

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Speaker 1: it was it was just interesting hear him talk about

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Speaker 1: Bosa because they were teammates at Ohio State, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: obviously Bose is a freak, but like just hearing him

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Speaker 1: talk about what makes him a freak. Which is interesting

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Speaker 1: is talking about how he's got these little stump legs.

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Speaker 1: That's what gives him this really low center of rat

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Speaker 1: like cenator gravity, uh nick Boson, and that's why he's

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Speaker 1: so good. And you know, you watched the phone and

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Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, there's a reason this guy's on pace

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Speaker 1: for twenty sacks this season, breaking their record. Um now

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Speaker 1: the forty nine team, and we're not we're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about them in a minute, but they're a juggernaut, that's

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Speaker 1: for sure. Boy, I mean they have We can talk

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Speaker 1: about him in a minute. You know how I feel

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Speaker 1: about caution. I can't believe they lost eleven and ten

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Speaker 1: to Denver earlier in the year. It's so freaking weird.

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Speaker 1: Who knows, Maybe you know, bro October is now brock

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Speaker 1: all fall. Shout out to Bets on Campus podcast, Dolphins

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Speaker 1: boy on the on the road at the Patriots. Even

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Speaker 1: with the quarterback news about two and not knowing if

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Speaker 1: he's going to be the starter this week, this number

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Speaker 1: hasn't moved. It's two and a half. Bets on the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: money on the Patriots. I thought it flipped. We're Dolphins

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Speaker 1: favorite and flip to them being dog. Oh yeah it

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Speaker 1: has I just had to squint for a second. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's totally flipped right. So and that makes more sense

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Speaker 1: where we are, not that we got lucky. We got

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Speaker 1: a little lucky on that Green Bay one. It was

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Speaker 1: twenty and ten. Two was playing really well. We solved

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Speaker 1: the hit his head slams the turf. That was that

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Speaker 1: like the rest of the game. You can look, you

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Speaker 1: can literally look exactly when he took that hit, the

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Speaker 1: numbers before and then the numbers after. Clearly played the

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Speaker 1: rest of that game of concussion and played horribly. I

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Speaker 1: mean those throws awful, like he was overthrowing guys. Then

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Speaker 1: he was telling them plays and throwing to a different

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Speaker 1: spot because they were running a route for the play

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Speaker 1: he told them, but he didn't remember what play you

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Speaker 1: told them. So we got really lucky with that Green

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Speaker 1: Bay one. We'll touch on that as we go alonger

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Speaker 1: in Green Bay. But Miami with Teddy, you assume they'd

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Speaker 1: be able to be good. And we love Teddy as

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Speaker 1: a dog. I mean, Chad, we've made a lot of money. Um,

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Speaker 1: he's one of those guys that I just his whole career.

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Speaker 1: I'd blindly take him as a dog. I dare the

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Speaker 1: books that give us a plus three in this matchup

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Speaker 1: if they give us a plus three auto grab on

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Speaker 1: Miami two and a half. I just do nothing in

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Speaker 1: this game. It's just I I look at this as

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Speaker 1: a game where we would always take the Patriots. But

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Speaker 1: this just isn't the Patriots team we are used to

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Speaker 1: these last couple of years. Like they're just so sloppy

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Speaker 1: special teams, so sloppy defensively, so sloppy offensively. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Pictriots fans, they are finally they finally feel what

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Speaker 1: we've all felt, probably for what they're doing for twenty years,

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Speaker 1: when most fan bases feel almost every other year. It's

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Speaker 1: just a lot of questions with this team right now,

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Speaker 1: and I just I can't back them in this spot.

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Speaker 1: I would just take Teddy to three. So oh wait,

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Speaker 1: hopefully gets to three. I saw a couple of books

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Speaker 1: pop three. I didn't get any money down. They moved

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Speaker 1: right back to two and a half, So hopefully it

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Speaker 1: gets back up to three. Somebody got the money down.

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Speaker 1: Who do you think I had the money down? Like?

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Speaker 1: What sharp grout? Yeah, I mean it's just one of

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Speaker 1: those where like they're probably up all night. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm not doing that on a Monday, but they probably

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Speaker 1: stayed up and just anytime it popped up, they hit

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Speaker 1: the books with it. So it makes sense. So because

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Speaker 1: again this number two and a half too, with the

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Speaker 1: backup that's that's fair. Like Miami's the better team, but

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Speaker 1: they're on the road with a backup quarterback. This this

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Speaker 1: number should be exactly what it is, two and a half. Three.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, anyone who says the half pins

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Speaker 1: don't matter, the half yards don't matter did not watch

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Speaker 1: the games this weekend. I mentioned the Eagles five and

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Speaker 1: a half. Close to the Eagles, we bet him at

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Speaker 1: five and a half the game end at six. We've

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Speaker 1: bet the Bengals three and a half the game into four.

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Speaker 1: By the way, how about Christian Watson forty nine yards

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Speaker 1: in the first half? His yardage total was fifty and

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Speaker 1: a half. How about Mark Andrews like it was under

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Speaker 1: out of forty six and a half? It landed that

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Speaker 1: the books are sharp. Brother Jesus, you know I forgot

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Speaker 1: about that Mark Andrews one and I saw you had

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Speaker 1: that long catch for thirty six yards. I'm like, well,

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Speaker 1: there goes that one, all right, Uh, Cardinals visiting the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: I mean the games at three and a half right now,

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Speaker 1: it feels like a epitome of a corner TV game.

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Speaker 1: I think people are gonna started picking up on a

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Speaker 1: pattern this week of like not that we have weeks

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Speaker 1: we absolutely love, but like last week, the dec amount

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Speaker 1: of games I like, I liked on Tuesday. This week

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Speaker 1: it feels like they're all like this arias in the

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Speaker 1: Falcons game, where it's just gross. I don't really know

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Speaker 1: what to really do with it. The lines feel right

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Speaker 1: like this is this, this is the right line, Like

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Speaker 1: Arizona is bad. They have a backup, third strink quarterback plane.

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Speaker 1: I mean the Atlanta. They've showed some flashes, right, but

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Speaker 1: we know exactly what they are as well. So to me,

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Speaker 1: this line should be minus three minster and a half

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Speaker 1: for Atlanta because they can run the ball. They're very

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Speaker 1: dominant when they get the running game going. Everyone is

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Speaker 1: terrible against the run. So another game of the strength

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Speaker 1: of Atlanta is running the ball. They're at home, no

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Speaker 1: real read, I'll just take them. Hopefully you can get

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Speaker 1: the three because the Minster and a half. Obviously that's

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Speaker 1: not ideal, but that's it feels like a sucker bed

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Speaker 1: where I know most guys we just finally take the Cardinals. Um,

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Speaker 1: but after they played so well last week at home,

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Speaker 1: I could in a prime time game, right, I just

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Speaker 1: laying an egg here at one o'clock start in Atlanta

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Speaker 1: against just an unaspiring both East two gonna inspiring where

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Speaker 1: I think Atlanta is automatically outright of the playoff race,

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Speaker 1: so they're not playing for anything either. So another game

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Speaker 1: I'm just I'm not gonna have much winning on. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I want to skip that one because it's like backup quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: you know, Desmond Ritter and god knows who else. Jaguars Texans,

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Speaker 1: this is it, buddy. We love the Jaguars, but four

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Speaker 1: points on the road against the Texas team that in

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Speaker 1: the last three weeks. We'll at what they've done in

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Speaker 1: the right win on the road in very difficult circumstances,

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Speaker 1: nearly beat the Cowboys, played strong against the Chiefs. I

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Speaker 1: can see why the bets are coming in on the Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: But the money to an extraordinary extent, is coming in

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Speaker 1: on the Texans at as four point home underdogs. Foxholl

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Speaker 1: got it, you know me, regardless of what's going on.

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Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to its aim. I

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Speaker 1: commits to a city. I'm a fox old Yeah. And

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Speaker 1: honestly that money poured in. It was people like me

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Speaker 1: that just poured in earlier where I could see Doug

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Speaker 1: Doug eep sitting his players, and I keep getting back

355
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Speaker 1: to this where this game doesn't matter to the Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: All that matters is next week. So maybe plays them

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Speaker 1: for the first half and they if they're in it,

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Speaker 1: they'll keep playing, and if they're losing, maybe the arrest

359
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Speaker 1: them second half. I'm not sure what Doug is gonna do,

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Speaker 1: but I just know Houston this team these last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, like you just said, they've been playing really

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Speaker 1: inspired football. And then you look at the history of

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Speaker 1: these two teams. Houston always owns the Jaguars, like they

364
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Speaker 1: just always play well against the Jaguars team. So the

365
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Speaker 1: fact that it is for is honestly a little shocking.

366
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Speaker 1: I thought it would have dropped the three by now.

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Speaker 1: Someone think giving me pause, But we'll just take the

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Speaker 1: early week value. We'll grab the four, and we'll deal

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Speaker 1: with that later. If there if this is a bad line,

370
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Speaker 1: we're stepping into But it just feels like a good number,

371
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Speaker 1: especially on a team that I still think a general

372
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Speaker 1: public is kind of out on the Texans, where you know,

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Speaker 1: if only we had just been riding them these last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Um, it was funny, Teach. I was

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Speaker 1: looking at the data, like, you know, just a historical year,

376
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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, what is he now? Twelve and three eight

377
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Speaker 1: t s And then you flip side Tom Brady He's

378
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,160
Speaker 1: three and twelve a ts. Those are just such extremes.

379
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Speaker 1: That's rare that happens in the same season. But this

380
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Speaker 1: Jaguars team, yeah, playing out of this world. I'm just

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Speaker 1: I'm just worried they're gonna rest starters here. So for me,

382
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Speaker 1: Houston to plus four, that's that's a smart player. Early

383
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Speaker 1: in the week, Matt Mitchell just asked us and Slack,

384
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Speaker 1: do we have any concern about Houston fighting for the

385
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Speaker 1: number and draft pick? No, Like, I don't think, I

386
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Speaker 1: don't think. I just don't think teams do that, and

387
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Speaker 1: I don't think this team does that because don't forget, hey,

388
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Speaker 1: Lovey Smith historically has just been a guy who fights

389
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Speaker 1: to win and gets his players to play for him.

390
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Speaker 1: But be these guys are playing for next season too,

391
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Speaker 1: Like you want to put good things on tape, even

392
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Speaker 1: if you're not going to be with the Texans. You

393
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Speaker 1: want to stay in the NFL. Everyone sees that, so

394
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Speaker 1: no one's going to try any less. Take yeah, and

395
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Speaker 1: people lost their minds. I don't know if it was

396
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Speaker 1: last year before, but like I am the worst person

397
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Speaker 1: in by far in football world that knows anything to

398
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: do with playoff draft positions. Where it's like like next

399
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 1: week we were like, well, this team needed to make

400
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 1: a playoffs. This team doesn't. Isn't that team just not

401
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 1: gonna try? That never works out. I mean just last year,

402
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 1: I think it was, Miami was playing the Patriots at home,

403
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 1: huge underdog Patriots need to win the game and move

404
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 1: up to a certain spot in that playoffs. Miami one outright.

405
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: The Jaguars were playing at home against the Colts. The

406
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: Colts needed to win the get in with Carson Wentz

407
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence did nothing. They were they were literally terrible

408
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 1: ast for Jaguars. They beat them out right in the

409
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Speaker 1: final week of the year. So just be careful if

410
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Speaker 1: you're just blindly betting on teams that need to get

411
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 1: in and teams that don't need to get in Texans

412
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 1: yet their their ownership I know for a fact. And

413
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Speaker 1: the gms, why wouldn't they want to lose this game?

414
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 1: They wanted to have that number one pick. But we've

415
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Speaker 1: just seen time and time again that the coaches don't care.

416
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Speaker 1: I mean the Jets, they they didn't get Trevor Lawrence

417
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 1: because's some meaningless game in December where their special teams

418
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 1: guy returned to kick and they beat the Rams at home,

419
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 1: so they got Zack Wilson instead. So yeah, most gms

420
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Speaker 1: they want that number one pick because that the destinies

421
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 1: and their control. It's it's the coaches that don't care.

422
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Speaker 1: So to me, Lovey Smith doesn't care. Like he's had

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Speaker 1: his guys playing right these last couple of weeks. I

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Speaker 1: trust him to keep continue that this week, So plus

425
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Speaker 1: four give it to me. The point, the larger point

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Speaker 1: is forget about this the moment and the circumstances. If

427
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 1: we saw a a divisional game with a road team

428
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 1: as more than a field goal favorite, we would play that.

429
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 1: And now we've got we've got layered on circumstances. It's

430
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 1: a nice spot. We're going to get more out of

431
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: this NFL season. Well, now is the perfect time to

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Speaker 1: everything from the money line to touchdown scores two over

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465
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 1: The culture a terrible team. I'm really curious to see

466
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: what happens with this team in the off season, who

467
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: their coaches, who their quarterback is. I feel like they're

468
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: starting from scratch, like they've really got nothing. At this point.

469
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 1: We think their offensive line is great and last night

470
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: they couldn't get two ft. You know, their defense really

471
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: held it together, but in the end they still give

472
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 1: up a lot of points and to a Charger's team

473
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: that has been very inconsistent this year. So I don't

474
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: want to bet the Giants is five point favorites at home. Yea.

475
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: Now the interesting to think about the line thing is

476
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: like and we were I mean I was definitely on it.

477
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: You can you go back and listen. I think we did,

478
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 1: uh ship man, it might have been like a Week

479
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: one preview and like may we're given our Week one bets.

480
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: And I literally talked about in that show the fact

481
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: that there was all these questions coming to the year

482
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: of that Colts left side of their offensive line, and

483
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 1: we've seen it this year. I mean, they give up

484
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: lots of pressures. They're just not the same team they were.

485
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: They don't have that foundational offensive line that just you know,

486
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 1: scares everyone. Yeah, the right side is really strong, but

487
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: clearly there's there's a big weakness on that old line.

488
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 1: But the Colds team, if this was Week seven auto bet,

489
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 1: no doubt smashing the Colts. But this is the time

490
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: of year where teams just simply quit, and if you

491
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: don't have a good leader in the house, that will

492
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,479
Speaker 1: give up on that leader. And we saw last year

493
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 1: with the Giants. The Giants in the year we're dreadful

494
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: every week, I know, really smart groups that are hammering

495
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: the Giants because they're again three points of value tons

496
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: of value on the Giants team to their number. But

497
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: the reason that against much values because that team had

498
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: quit and they got caught with that. So I'm not

499
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: getting caught here, Like I bet Giants of minus three

500
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: taking the three and a half. It's it's steamed up

501
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: out of five. And if it's Nick Foles cheat, I

502
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: could be talking and taking this Giants team at that

503
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: number just because they're at home with that defense against

504
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: the cold scene. That just I mean, they seemed to quit.

505
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: It's like the Broncos. I mean, the Broncos fired their

506
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 1: head coach because that team straight up quit on him.

507
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: So um, I don't think they'll fire Saturday. Even better,

508
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,640
Speaker 1: like they're gonna keep the guy there that all these

509
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: guys don't like apparently, so um hilarious. I mean, you

510
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: look at those he won that one game? Was that

511
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: the first game he coached he won first game, and

512
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: Jim Mary said, you know, came out puffing his chest

513
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: talking ship to people, saying like, how could you say

514
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: this about it? How could you doubt us? All we

515
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 1: care about is winning. Just win baby, whatever the hell

516
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 1: he tweeted, he looks like an idiot, Like they've lost

517
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: five straight or sixth straight now, so, um, I can't

518
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: do it. I know all the values on the Colts,

519
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: don't care. If you move it up to seven, I'll

520
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 1: start thinking about the Colts, But six six and a half,

521
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: I'd still take this Giant's team at this point. It's interesting,

522
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: what is the the line of demarcation, the timeline that

523
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: is necessary two be able to boast right from when

524
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 1: you made a decision to when you can tell that

525
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: decision paid off. We know it's not one game, you know,

526
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 1: it's not a half. Like we come on here all

527
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: the time and talk about the people who come after

528
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: us on Twitter when the team we bet on is

529
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: getting killed in the first half. The Patriots great example

530
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 1: this week, right, they were down what twenty two and nothing,

531
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 1: with the Patriots a chance to win the game with

532
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: a minute left, Like you know, the arc of the

533
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: universe is long, man g mersctation no better. So the

534
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: Broncos are interesting to me. They're now thirteen and a

535
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: half point underdogs on the road at the Chiefs, and

536
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: look their defense, their defense obviously the whole thing, just

537
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: the wheels came off the other day against the against

538
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: the Rams and Baker Mayfield. You know, of all the

539
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 1: things that I did badly this weekend, I was undisciplined.

540
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: I overbet, I was confident. I made every mistake you

541
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: can make. I didn't manage my bank roll well Denver.

542
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: I did not bet on Denver God, and so I

543
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: skipped that game. I felt really good. I like ske

544
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: so close to pull on the trig out on the Broncos.

545
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: Plus three. It was four fifteen in the afternoon. I'm

546
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 1: watching the NBA games and the Broncos are coming on,

547
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: and I'm thinking, seems like people are really liking Denver here,

548
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: and I'm like, I can't do this. So I didn't

549
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: do it. Felt great. It might have been the best

550
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 1: decision I made all weekend. Yeah, I had the under unfortunately,

551
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: so that got smoked. But I literally said that to me.

552
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 1: I was like, I said to myself, I go, how

553
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: the hell each I did it all year of fading

554
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,120
Speaker 1: the Broncos anytime their favorite and fading the Bucks anytime

555
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: their favorite. I couldn't believe we had missed that where

556
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: it was like it was sitting right there right there

557
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: after that have been there, good good to us all season,

558
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 1: fading the Broncos favorite and fading the Bucks the favorite,

559
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: and they both I mean the Bucks should have lost

560
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: out right, but it was both one of those like

561
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 1: as soon as those games started, I knew right away

562
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: where it's like, oh ship, like neither of these teams

563
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: are gonna cover. It's just gonna be an all dog's day.

564
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: So again, a lot of regret this weekend for the contest.

565
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: Tho those were another how do we not have either

566
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: of the Bucks or the Rams and we're Russell Wilson favorite,

567
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: like a three point favorite against no one, like he

568
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: is not a starter in this league. It's crazy. Well,

569
00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 1: so now we got the Broncos. I don't even know

570
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: who the coaches. I haven't seen them name an interim coach.

571
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: So it's the guy they brought in to help that,

572
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: to help hack it, or the consultant. Yes, so the

573
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 1: guy they brought in after a week one is now

574
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 1: the head coach. How crazy is that? So they got

575
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: a consultant coming into coach. Uh. There are nearly two

576
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: touched on underdogs on the road as the Chiefs. They

577
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 1: do have a good defense this weekend, UH is an anomaly.

578
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: The Chiefs have a hard time covering big numbers at home. Right,

579
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: I was this not an early contender for big balls

580
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: that I don't know? The same thing was laughing. I

581
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: just wouldn't let I would not let us take the Seahawks,

582
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: And just I knew that line was fishy as fuck.

583
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: Went from nine and a half to ten and a

584
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 1: half and what they cover fourteen? And it was under

585
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: that always ended up being a great car was betting

586
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: the under in that game? Yeah, that was a nice one.

587
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: But like it's the same thing where I'm pc with you.

588
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: It's like I always loved to fade my homes in

589
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: these positions. It's just when you get late in the

590
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 1: year like this is these playoff teams usually ramp it

591
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: up and like that, that's what that looked like. That

592
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: that Chief's game, that was a complete game. Like their

593
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: offense wasn't that great, right, it was that cold weather,

594
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 1: but their defense really stepped up against the Seahawks. So

595
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: I don't know, Chat, I just said, just bet the under.

596
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: I mean, fuck it, just take the under here and

597
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: what should probably be a close, cold game. And you're right,

598
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: I always leaned towards Denver. But if it's a guarantee

599
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: that's Russell Wilson, I ain't doing it. Like I can't

600
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: can't get out, I can't get out of my head

601
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 1: all these videos of him getting hit to the ground

602
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: and his offensive linement not picking him up, and then

603
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: his was that dousing ripping came over and started talking

604
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: ship to the old lineman about not picking him up,

605
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: and like they're about the fucking beat up the backup quarterback.

606
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: That's how far gone that team is right now. So

607
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: it's another team where I'm just worried they've quit. Chat.

608
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: If this was week seven or eight, yeah, take the

609
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: dog Divisional dog like Chiefs don't cover these big numbers,

610
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: especially against great defense. They make good rally against for

611
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: the new coach. But I remember Stucky talking about it's

612
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: not that big of an advantage a t S wise

613
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: taking the team after the coach has been fired. I

614
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: think it's like fifteen to fourteen or something. Really coolse

615
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: like that. So, um, everything you're saying is right where.

616
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: It's like, we almost always take the dog in this

617
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: position divisionally against the Chiefs because they just don't cover

618
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: these big numbers. It's just that the Broncos just feel

619
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: so lost right now. Um, I just can't I can't

620
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: tell the good the good listeners of this show to

621
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: put their money on, uh, this Denver team. Well wait

622
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: until Thursday and maybe Sunday. The total in this game,

623
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: by the way, you mentioned taking the under forty five

624
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: right now, Panthers visiting the Buccaneers. Panthers are three point dogs,

625
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,239
Speaker 1: and they've got something to play for, and they got

626
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: a good defense and a good running game and a

627
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: quarterback who's not losing the games for them. Very slight

628
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: edge with the money, big edge with the tickets. K

629
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: of makes me feel like, I know, we just said

630
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: this about Tom Brady. You don't take him as a favorite,

631
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: He's been terrible as a favorite. But this feels like

632
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: a Buccaneers spot. I know. I hate it because this

633
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: is like the same attack thing when um, who the

634
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: hell it was? It was the Rams that went and

635
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: played the Bucks and like Tom Brady was dead. The

636
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: whole game they had a last second touchdown to win

637
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: or whatever it was. It feels like the exact same

638
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: scenario where it's like the Panthers are such not even

639
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: just a better team, but they just seem like they

640
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: are they know exactly who they are there, they know

641
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: exactly who that identity is at this point, Like there

642
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 1: are great defense with a really strong run game. If

643
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: both those things work, they are really tough to beat.

644
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: Like if they get a seven, seven nothing lead on

645
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: the Bucks, kind of feels like this game will be

646
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: over right, Like this is the kind of team that

647
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: they are this year. But what the hell is his line, Chad? Like,

648
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: why isn't it what you're exactly? What? Why just not

649
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: a pick or plus two? I want to take the three.

650
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm dying to take the three here because

651
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: it just feels like Carolina's right side. So this will

652
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: definitely be a sharp call. Um, My numbers say to

653
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: take Carolina, my heart says to take Carolina. It's all

654
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: saying it. But yeah, it's fishy, and the game is

655
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: this one stinks. It stinks. Same thing with Detroit last week.

656
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 1: We're like we were all over that right away, and

657
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: I just we were just a little scared because it's like,

658
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: oh god, we love the lines. They've been playing so well,

659
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: and now they're going against the Carolina team that just

660
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: laid an egg the week before. And as a week

661
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: went along and I talked to more pros, it was like, no,

662
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: this is the spot you load up on Carolina, fade

663
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: the lines. I'm gonna just hear what the pros think

664
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: on this one, because to me, like you just said,

665
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 1: I I know better. I know better than take Carolina.

666
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: So I want to hear what other guys are thinking

667
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: here because it feels like this is the time you

668
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: take the book. We're gonna have to hold off on

669
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: this one. We'll get this. I guarantee you're right. We'll

670
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: get into some sharp calls on Thursday. We'll be back

671
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: on Thursday. Reminder, all right. So the Chicago Bears did

672
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: his dirty on Sunday because they really played well in

673
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 1: the cold, and then and then the game it just

674
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: it just kind of turnovers. Couldn't convert on Bill's turnovers.

675
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: Congrass to Matt Mitchell. Another big win. Um, it was

676
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 1: a brutal day. I and my dad texted me every

677
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 1: five minutes telling me about the ticket prices at Social

678
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: Field dropping as the game got closer, like a hundred

679
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: box for fifty yard line seats behind the Bears bench

680
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: because it was so miserable. Bears are six point dogs

681
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 1: on the road at the lines, I don't know what

682
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: I want to take the lines. They're at home indoors.

683
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,879
Speaker 1: They could score. They honestly could score a hundred points

684
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: on the point that that was my first thought. And

685
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 1: they're going to try this core hundred points. The fear

686
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 1: is fucking justin fields. Man, I'm terrified of the dude.

687
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 1: It's like because he could run for a thousand yards

688
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, and when it's when he's got

689
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 1: it turned on, it's unstoppable, and it's like a whole

690
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,800
Speaker 1: not that he's like the vibe of that team, but

691
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,439
Speaker 1: it really seems like when he's going the team picks

692
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: up in other areas. Like their defense played really well

693
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: in that first half against the Bills because the offense

694
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: was playing so well, all of a sudden, the offense

695
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 1: starts spinning out of control. Had like you just had

696
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 1: the turnovers and the third down stops. The defense they

697
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: just gave up so many big runs. It's like the

698
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: same thought here of like, I mean, Williams might be

699
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: out this game, which is a big deal for that

700
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: running game of Detroit. But if you still have swift

701
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 1: running the ball against this Dare's defense, and you still

702
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 1: have you know, I'm on st Brown and d J

703
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: chart at the Ryer Suter position and golf has all

704
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 1: data throw because you guys have no one that can

705
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: pass rush. It's just like, how do I not take

706
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: Detroit here? So um, early lean is Detroit? Interesting number

707
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 1: line move? But though like if this keeps moving, it

708
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: touches seven. Yeah, I can probably get talked into the

709
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: Bears there. I mean, that's a big spread and in

710
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 1: divisual matchup, but you can still get five and a

711
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: half six. I wouldn't mind grabbing that lines right now.

712
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 1: Justin Fields is about two yards away from setting the

713
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 1: single season Russian record for a quarterback, and he has

714
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: been very open about the fact he wants that record,

715
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: and Matt E. Refluce yesterday mentioned that no matter, it

716
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: doesn't matter the Bears are in the midst of a

717
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: losing streak, doesn't matter that there's no chance of them

718
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: getting over their season win total. All that matters is

719
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,439
Speaker 1: that if Justin Fields is healthy, he's going to play.

720
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 1: And I've come around on this. At first, I was like,

721
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: we know what Justin Fields can do. We think he's amazing.

722
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 1: Let's sit him down so we don't break him for

723
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 1: next season. Now I'm like, fuck it, he's so fun

724
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 1: to watch. Let's see him get the record. I like

725
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: the attitude. I think it's great for the team. Don't

726
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: have many offensive records so ever since Sweetness, I think

727
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: it's great. I think it's great for the team actually

728
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: in terms of attitude, like the players are seeing how

729
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 1: the coaching staff thinks about them and how they think

730
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: long term, and that they just want to play. I'm

731
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: excited for that. So Justin Fields could go for a

732
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,479
Speaker 1: thousand yards in this game. The Detroit Lions might score

733
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,760
Speaker 1: a hundred points. It can be the most record setting

734
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 1: game in NFL history. Five and a half feels like

735
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 1: a lot. It does. Eagles Fly Eagles, Fly boy. That

736
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 1: was a heartbreaker the other day. Six and a half

737
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,959
Speaker 1: point favorites at home against the Saints. Yeah. I wish

738
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 1: football and have so much control of my life. But

739
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 1: it ruined my Christmas Eve made me piste off. It

740
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 1: was just like classic. That's this is why it hurts

741
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 1: is the m v P. It's like the guy he's

742
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: a part of the machine of he doesn't turn the

743
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: ball over and that's such a major thing on an

744
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,359
Speaker 1: offense if you have a quarterback who can protect the ball.

745
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: And again, it wasn't all Minshew's fault, but he had

746
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: a lot that a lot of throws. You can see

747
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: why he is a backup. Like it hangs in the

748
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 1: air like you'll throw a ball downfield, and it feels

749
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 1: like it takes five seconds to get there. And against

750
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,479
Speaker 1: the Saints at home, Chad, Yeah, I love the Eagles here.

751
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: They got a bunch of real big injuries. Lane Johnson

752
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: is gonna be out for this game. There slock Corner

753
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 1: is gonna be out for this game. Hurts. I think

754
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: he's gonna try toughen it out and come back for it.

755
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: Um if he does, that's what this line makes sense,

756
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 1: because to me, this line should be three and a

757
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: half four if it's Minshew. Um, So you want to

758
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: take the risk and grab it now in case it

759
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: does go up even more when Hurts comes back, go

760
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 1: for it. But I'm gonna wait and see because I

761
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 1: don't really know what they're gonna do. Like every every

762
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 1: guy I talked to him, the inside of the Eagle

763
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: says he's gonna play like that, he's gonna try to

764
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: toughen this out. I still think it's gonna come down

765
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 1: to the team doctors, and they're gonna be the ones

766
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:09,319
Speaker 1: that are gonna be like, Okay, you can go play,

767
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 1: or no, you can't do it. So I get that

768
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: Hurts wants to play, and all the coaches want to

769
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 1: play in how he sure sure as how it wants

770
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: him to play. Because people don't understand we have the

771
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: Saints draft pick, like us beating them locks up the

772
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: number one seed and gives us the top five pick.

773
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 1: With that Saints pick, that's a huge deal to this

774
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 1: Eagles team. So um, motivation wise, it's all Eagles, like

775
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: this is as a motivated as a team. You're gonna

776
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: get Saint's coming off a big road win that kind

777
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 1: of stole from the Browns. There easy easy let down spots.

778
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: So um, I understand if you're taking the Eagles now,

779
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna wait and see because as important is

780
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,760
Speaker 1: as important as Hurts is to this team, it's obviously

781
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 1: not that big of a drop off going down the minstrew.

782
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: I mean they put up take away to pick six,

783
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 1: they still put up what twenty seven points against that

784
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: Cowboys defense on the roads. So um, clearly this Eagle's

785
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 1: offense has got to click in uh, just just like

786
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 1: them in the spot here. Well, it'll be interesting to

787
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: see the luck rankings this week, which we talked about

788
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 1: a lot on this show and we love because it's

789
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: such a good measurement of the unexpected and how it

790
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: impacted these games. And in that game I mentioned it

791
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 1: off the top. Miles Sanders had fumbled once in his career,

792
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: it was the week before, and he fumbled again in

793
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: this game in the final two minutes Minshew with a

794
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: pick in the final couple of minutes, completing that third

795
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 1: and thirty with seven minutes left, losing two ten point leads.

796
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 1: You know, you're always doing gamblers math on these games,

797
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: and there was at one point they were up by

798
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:49,280
Speaker 1: ten and I was like, Okay, can the Cowboys score

799
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: three more times in this game and the Eagles not

800
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: score at all? Like everything, like everything that could go

801
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,399
Speaker 1: wrong went wrong for the Eagles to not just lose

802
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 1: that game, but to not cover that game. They are

803
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 1: much better team than the Saints are not so even

804
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:11,879
Speaker 1: at six and a half. The Gardner Minshew, I don't

805
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: I'm not that concerned, especially given the stakes. This will

806
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: be a big luck game. Um uh, the same thing

807
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 1: for the Saints. By the way, you know, they got

808
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 1: pretty lucky they in their game. They had a couple

809
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 1: of keys, they had a key turnover forty Niners. I

810
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: don't feel like we're settling on anything yet, which is

811
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,439
Speaker 1: totally fine. We haven't done a Sigmon says, we haven't

812
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: done an exact decision. We'll probably have to come to

813
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: it at some point. The forty niners and the only

814
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: game we love so far is the Texas plus four.

815
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 1: This is this is life doing games ton am on Tuesday. Yeah,

816
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 1: it's hard. It's hard. And I will say, you know,

817
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: you and I have talked about this, and Matt Mitchell

818
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: and I have talked about this. Based on your idea

819
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 1: next football season, you and I are probably going to

820
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: do a emotional where we got fucked, where we Got

821
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: lucky podcast, like at seven pm Eastern as soon as

822
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: the slate of day games ends before the Sunday night

823
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: game begins. Um, and so we'll get a lot of

824
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 1: that sort of emotional Rigorman role out of the way.

825
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 1: Doesn't mean we'll be anymore ready on a Tuesday, but

826
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 1: it'll change sort of our tenor I think forty again.

827
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 1: Boy brock Purty, I didn't know before this game, am

828
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 1: I seeing Taylor Heineke playing both quarterback positions? Like as

829
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: brock Purty just going to turn into Taylor Heinekey get

830
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 1: a terrible first half and then with lights out. That's

831
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: that coaching staff is so good. They're so good at adjustments. No,

832
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: it's insane, but I will still take the Raiders, Sir,

833
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 1: give me the er. This is what we have. We

834
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 1: have to, we have to this. What sucks is like

835
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: people a bitch at us are like stop fading the

836
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 1: fourty nine ers Rock Purty four and oh a t

837
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: S four and oh straight up, it's just done with

838
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: the Doude Chad because they're they're right where I haven't

839
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 1: Maybe I haven't just enough, I haven't given them enough credit.

840
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: Um it's just mental though, Like that that game they

841
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: had three plays those and those three plays dictated the

842
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 1: whole entire game. So they are getting incredibly lucky. He's

843
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 1: talking about the luck rankings this will. I mean, they

844
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: have to be top three, top four now. Vegas is

845
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 1: arguably one of the worst coach teams on football. When

846
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 1: the most unlucky teams on football. Um, I think they

847
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 1: tied another record. Um there, they tied the record of

848
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: they've had uh six games, I believe now they've been

849
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:51,760
Speaker 1: up by a touchdown heading of the halftime that they lost.

850
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 1: So just all the bad records you can think of,

851
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 1: they've just been cashing this year. Um. And you know,

852
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: make Derek are the fall man. That would be the

853
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,439
Speaker 1: perfect thing for Josh McDaniels to do. Shift the blame

854
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 1: to someone else. It's not his system, that's ship. It's

855
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 1: Derek Carr who's staring all these interceptions and it's looking terrible,

856
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 1: um as if he's been put into the terrible positions

857
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,319
Speaker 1: to throw those balls. It's just it's a train wreck

858
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 1: right now, Chad for this Raiders team. I mean there,

859
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,879
Speaker 1: you've got guys in the locker room openly talking about

860
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: looking forward to not being there next year. And they

861
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: still got to two weeks to go and they know

862
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: they're out there. They're out of playoffs, like nothing to

863
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: play for. Flip side. It's I mean boy, Niners are rolling,

864
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: like they are absolutely rolling. If you go through these

865
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 1: last couple of games, they're just not beating teams are

866
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 1: beating that ship out of them. Chat, They're they're double

867
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 1: digital them. So fuck, man, you just said it like

868
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 1: this number. This should be three and a half four,

869
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: it's five and a half six. There's so much value

870
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: on this Raiders team. But what are we supposed to do? Man?

871
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: Because this is different than it would be in the

872
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 1: early weeks, like this is the end of the year.

873
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 1: Teams quit, teams give up. I told you these playoff

874
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 1: teams send it into the next gear like they're getting

875
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 1: ready for the playoffs. Like this is no letdown spots.

876
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 1: Now you add into like they could get still get

877
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 1: that two seed from Minnesota. So I don't know what

878
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 1: to do with this one. It's like, personally, any well,

879
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 1: listen to the show. I will be on the Raiders.

880
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: Leave me alone. I'm not telling you guys to bet it.

881
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 1: This is what I'm doing in me chat, We're most

882
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:31,240
Speaker 1: likely having the contest because it's just a great fucking number,

883
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: and it's that's the hardest part. Chat. It's like, I

884
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 1: don't know what to do here because this is a

885
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: good number and I let down spot against the forty

886
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 1: niners on the road. Um, everything, I agree with what

887
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 1: they're saying. Their defenses out of this world. They have

888
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 1: not allowed. What the hell is the crazy stay didn't

889
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 1: let a running back then more in the sixty five

890
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 1: yards or something fucking crazy. And it's week seventeen, Like,

891
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: you guys are unreal indoor against a high flying offense

892
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: that is Vegas like this is when we take Vegas

893
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 1: at home as a big home dog. Like this has

894
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 1: been really good to us in these spots, especially on

895
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 1: offense that is a fast West Coast offense was exactly

896
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 1: what the fours have only struggled. They only struggled in

897
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: two games this whole year. That's against that style of offenses.

898
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: So fuck man, I really hate it because it makes

899
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 1: me feel sick. It's the same thing has been in

900
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: Carolina last week. I feel sick to my stomach doing it.

901
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 1: But if it's a if it's guarantee that Derek Carr

902
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 1: is the starter this week and you know they're playing starters,

903
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 1: I'll be on Vegas. But man, is it not fun?

904
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: So do we wait? Yeah? I'll tell anyone that's why

905
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 1: I'm making this time, he said, I think you'll be

906
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 1: able to get a six or six and a half.

907
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: Like no one's bet in this purpose, Like this is

908
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 1: a a pro bet, and the public they will keep

909
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 1: doing what they do and they'll bet the spread. They'll

910
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: throw them in teasers, they'll throw them in moneyline parlays

911
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: boys is a cash cow to the public right now.

912
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 1: Then in the Bengals have just been feeding families these

913
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: last couple of months. So true, that's when the pros

914
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 1: get killed of, like the Bengals a lot. We didn't

915
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: like him this weekend, and that you know what our feelings. Um, alright,

916
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: so we're holding out. We haven't done assignment, says, we

917
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,879
Speaker 1: haven't done an exact decision. HM. We're keeping an eye

918
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 1: on Miami, hoping it gets too plus three. We're keeping

919
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 1: an eye on Las Vegas to see how it moves

920
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: over the course of the week. Um, we like the

921
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 1: Texas plus four. It's the only game we've bet so far. Uh,

922
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: Jets two and a half point favorites on the road

923
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 1: at Seattle. You gotta take the Jets. Mike White's back,

924
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 1: so we'll ride with the public. We will just keep

925
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 1: fading Gino. The book is out. We said it weeks ago.

926
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 1: The book is out on Gineo. You've seen exactly why

927
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 1: this guy is not a starter. You can get away

928
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 1: with it. But once team's learning his rhythm, what he

929
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: likes to do and what he doesn't like to do,

930
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 1: what offensive scheme they're running for him to put him

931
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 1: in the best position, they've all taken it away. Mean,

932
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: every week it feels like now we keep trying to

933
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: make excuses for the Seattle team where they just, I mean,

934
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: they're not good. They went from being I think it

935
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: was plus five hundred to miss the playoffs, two or

936
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 1: no to make the playoffs or no miss the playoffs.

937
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 1: Now they're like plus five make the playoffs or something

938
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 1: even crazier where it's like they just completely gone the

939
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 1: other way at these last five weeks. So give me

940
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 1: the great Jets defense on the road and a must

941
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 1: win game with Mike White a quarterback they believe in

942
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: in a game where I don't think he's gonna have

943
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: to throw it that much. I think they'll be able

944
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 1: to run this ball against the Seahawks team. They just

945
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: they got no answers for the run we saw last

946
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: week with the Chiefs. The Chiefs just ran the ball

947
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: down their throat. They had no answers for it. So

948
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,800
Speaker 1: all the week before that against the Seahawks and before that,

949
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: it's just that's the formula. It's just reminds me of

950
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 1: when Carolina went up there Maybeth Carolina went to Seattle

951
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: and whatever that was like one seven win or something

952
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: like that. The same kind of blueprint here, Like, we're

953
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,760
Speaker 1: back in a really good defense. I'm us one spot

954
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 1: with a good run game and a quarterback that's not

955
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: gonna kill us in Mike White. Like Mike White on

956
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 1: third and five, he can make the completion. Zach Wilson

957
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:10,479
Speaker 1: on third and five, he's gonna throw a twenty yards

958
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 1: downfield over a guy's head. It's just it's night and

959
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 1: day the difference. So, um, yeah, well we'll take it

960
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 1: out a good number. Check in that two and a half? Uh?

961
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 1: Is this a Simon says, Do we think it's going

962
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 1: to go up to three? No, you're gonna hate my

963
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 1: Simon says, I can't wait, but I do think this

964
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 1: number might go to three. Yeah, it could. I do

965
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: think that enough enough pros will coming on the Seahawks

966
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 1: just because They're a home dog. The Packers are three

967
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 1: point favorites on the at home at Lambeau in a

968
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: most win for them against the Vikings, who continue to

969
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: find ways sixty one yard field goal in the final

970
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: seconds after nearly blowing it against the Giants. I hate

971
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 1: this team. This team will be an auto fade for

972
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: their season win total next year, Simon says the Vikings.

973
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: I knew you would hate it. Everyone hates it. Everyone's okay,

974
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 1: hates this team. I've completely turned the other way around.

975
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 1: I'm like, Okay, this is the team that's gonna win

976
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, isn't it. They're gonna be an underdog

977
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 1: in every playoff game because the public is like you,

978
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 1: They're just waiting for them to fail, and Kirk will

979
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 1: keep winning these games on the final a couple of seconds.

980
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,799
Speaker 1: It's bizarro world. No, the honest, real reason for taking

981
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,399
Speaker 1: this Vikings team is I love the way they match

982
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: up with Green bay Um. I forget when they played

983
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 1: it might have been Week one. I think they beat

984
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 1: him twenty three to seven. They absolutely dominated him when

985
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 1: they played earlier this year, played him well these last

986
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:44,360
Speaker 1: couple of years, even when Rogers was on his m

987
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 1: VP level um. Everything Chad saying is true, where it's

988
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 1: like we're getting an indoor team outdoors fade. We're gonna

989
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 1: team that is probably number two or three in the

990
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 1: luck rankings fade. It's like everything is screaming fade to

991
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 1: this Viking team where I look at other way where

992
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 1: green Bay has had crazy amount of luck and good

993
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: fortune these last couple of weeks that is inflating their number,

994
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 1: like people are thinking they're way better than they really

995
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 1: actually are. Everyone's thinking, Okay, this is the team that's

996
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 1: gonna back door get their way into the playoffs. The

997
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 1: NFL is gonna fix it because they want the ratings

998
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 1: for green Bay. They don't give a damn about that.

999
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 1: And it's another team where I think they're gonna look ahead. Man,

1000
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 1: they got Detroit next week. That's the game. Like, that's

1001
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 1: them Detroit fighting for that last spot. To me, that's

1002
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: the look ahead. That's the game for them. Minnesota. I

1003
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 1: love when they're just I love them as dogs honestly,

1004
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 1: Like we did well though, right and we took Cowboys

1005
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: on the road as a favorite against the Vikings. That

1006
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 1: made sense, like that was a smart number. I don't know,

1007
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: it's a bit of an overaction here, Like I would

1008
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 1: make this line of pick this is a coin flip game.

1009
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 1: You're giving me three points because everyone's like Chat and

1010
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:57,719
Speaker 1: fucking hates his Vikings team and just doesn't want to

1011
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: bet them, and people like Green Bay, I think they're ascending.

1012
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 1: They've turned it around. I get everyone's reasoning for being

1013
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 1: on the Screen Bay team, but I can tell you this.

1014
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 1: They on a three and a half with this game,

1015
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:11,879
Speaker 1: and I was all over and a lot of pros

1016
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 1: roll over. It went down to three, went to two

1017
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 1: and a half for a little bit, and then went

1018
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: back up to three. So it's gonna be a split game.

1019
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,439
Speaker 1: It was just like Cowboys Eagles last week. It's gonna

1020
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 1: be pros verse pros um. I'm gonna stick my claim

1021
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 1: in this Vikings team. I see even if they lose,

1022
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 1: I can't see them losing by more than a field goals.

1023
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 1: So I love the fact they're getting plus three here.

1024
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 1: All right, Well, there are some places where three and

1025
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: a half is still available. So what you're saying the

1026
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 1: reason why this is, as Simon says, is because you

1027
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 1: got to find that three and a half and betted

1028
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 1: before it goes back down to three, because that's why

1029
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna settle. I think I'll just stay

1030
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 1: at three because it's when the pros are on both

1031
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:52,400
Speaker 1: sides of books kind of throa their hands, and they

1032
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,759
Speaker 1: got all right, we'll just we'll let them, We'll let

1033
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: them figure this out. We'll just keep it out of

1034
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: boring number at three and that that tends to what

1035
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: happens in these matchups. Yeah, all right, Well guess what

1036
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 1: I'm I'm Ben in the Vikings plus three and a half.

1037
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 1: You'll be on an island with me, brother, We're on

1038
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 1: it together. My friend, I already consent to all of

1039
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:17,800
Speaker 1: Action Network will be on green back. You know what,

1040
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 1: I don't mind fadon Aaron Rodgers in a must win

1041
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,360
Speaker 1: spot with a team that he still isn't sure he

1042
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 1: can believe in, and you're not wrong, Like and his

1043
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,280
Speaker 1: number one receiver got banged up last week. Yeah, Christian

1044
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 1: Watson got banged up. That was a painful player. Prop

1045
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 1: to lose another part of my fantastic weekend. But that

1046
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 1: she was look two. I didn't look right and that

1047
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 1: was a different game. So um, you know, good for us.

1048
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 1: Rams at the Chargers. Rams are six and a half

1049
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 1: point underdogs in that. So I'm saying on this week,

1050
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: it's such a hard week, like, what are we supposed

1051
00:53:56,040 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 1: to do with this game? Chat Well, in a non

1052
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 1: end of the year world where the Chargers haven't haven't

1053
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 1: already clinched the playoffs, and it's not two teams playing

1054
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 1: on a home field that doesn't have any advantage. We're

1055
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 1: automatically taking the Rams here. Every time we bet the

1056
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 1: Rams here everything, we don't bet the Chargers as home favorites. Facts,

1057
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 1: So I don't have a choice here. We have to

1058
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:24,879
Speaker 1: back the Rams, and I am with everyone. They're coming

1059
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 1: off a fifty burger not ideal. It feels like the

1060
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 1: Bears last week, Chad Like, it feels like I do

1061
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: not have a choice in this game. As much that

1062
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 1: I want to fight it, I have to play this

1063
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 1: big gas number like it's a team that usually does

1064
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 1: not cover this big gas number. And I mean, I

1065
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 1: I get what you're saying. We're uh, there's no there's

1066
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 1: no advantage these teams share the stadium, either of them

1067
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 1: were that fan bases um eight. If this is still

1068
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 1: plus eight, this has been a no brainer six and

1069
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 1: a half. We're still gonna bet it. It's just it's

1070
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 1: I don't feel strong about it because all that movements,

1071
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:04,359
Speaker 1: just because what we just said, they hung up fifty points. Um,

1072
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 1: the book's got to move that number because of that.

1073
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 1: So uh, not great value. But I would still take

1074
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 1: it on the Rams. Fucking hate this game. I gotta

1075
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 1: make an exact decision here. I got two more games,

1076
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 1: and I've been waffling between the two of them. The

1077
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: Steelers are on the road is three point dogs at

1078
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 1: the Ravens. And by the way, the last game we'll

1079
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 1: talk about and that I'm debating is Bills and Bengals,

1080
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:30,760
Speaker 1: where the Bills are one and a half point favorites.

1081
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 1: I like the Steelers last weekend, you I felt uncomfortable

1082
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: about the Steelers. UM ended up kind of like from

1083
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 1: a from a handicapping perspective of perspective, neither of us

1084
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 1: were right. Like, you know, the Steelers kind of got

1085
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 1: lucky at the end of the game. The Raiders do

1086
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 1: what the Raiders do. The Raiders were probably the right side,

1087
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:59,200
Speaker 1: but the Steelers ended up winning and covering. UM. I

1088
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:02,719
Speaker 1: I have like this Steelers team defensively. I have liked

1089
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 1: this Steeler team with Kenny Pickett playing. The Ravens are

1090
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 1: a mystery to me. Yeah, and it's like, what do

1091
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 1: we do with this one. I'm pretty sure this is

1092
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 1: Lamar coming back and he'll play, but that's a big deal.

1093
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 1: He hasn't played and what almost a month and a half.

1094
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 1: It feels like that. Um, I'll take the points with

1095
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: the public. This is a public bet taking Pittsburgh here,

1096
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 1: and I guess I'm doing it with him, but I

1097
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 1: just I feel like that's a fair number. I'd make

1098
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 1: this game too, So the value is on Pittsburgh, and

1099
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: I make it that way just because what we just said,

1100
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: Lamar hasn't played, Like that's a big deal, the fact

1101
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 1: that he hasn't played at all. So um, the only

1102
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 1: reason I'm not smashing this game is the respect I

1103
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:49,799
Speaker 1: do have for the Ravens and they are the better team.

1104
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:52,760
Speaker 1: Like we know they're the better team. But in divisional

1105
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 1: game like this, I'll bet with the public, chat and

1106
00:56:55,840 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 1: I'll take Pittsburgh. Monday, n Up, all the Bills are

1107
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:06,280
Speaker 1: visiting the Bengals. I'm gonna say it right now, Matt Mitchell,

1108
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 1: cue the music. Buffalo Bills are my exact decision of

1109
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. The Bills. Make me keep

1110
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 1: your feels something to throw your hand something, throw your

1111
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: hand back and tall. Now the Bills are making it happen.

1112
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 1: I hate it. I hate it, but I worry about

1113
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: the offensive line issues for the Bengals. I worry about

1114
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 1: some of their defensive line issues. A lot of injuries

1115
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 1: popping up in the foundational spots. The Bills just keep

1116
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 1: pulling it out, and like I think they're a better

1117
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 1: overall team. There's too much at stake here. Give me

1118
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 1: the Bills minus one and a half. I hate it. Yeah,

1119
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 1: I don't have to do because I tease the Bengals

1120
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,320
Speaker 1: already up the seven and a half. I just I

1121
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 1: like the Bengals in the spot at home after having

1122
00:57:56,880 --> 00:58:00,480
Speaker 1: such a just a stinker of a game against Patriots

1123
00:58:00,480 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 1: where the Bills and other half where they played so

1124
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 1: well in the second half against the Bears. Um, I

1125
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 1: can't fault you for it. Though. The Bills, they're they're

1126
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:14,320
Speaker 1: just not that they're built to play against this Bengals team.

1127
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:16,040
Speaker 1: But it is a good matchup for them and the Bengals.

1128
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 1: A good match for the Bengals playing against the Chiefs.

1129
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 1: They match up really well against them, vice versus the

1130
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 1: Bills match up really well against this Bengals team. What

1131
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:28,160
Speaker 1: the Bengals team wants to do? So, um, some shocked

1132
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 1: you're making this your your pick here just because this

1133
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 1: is such a it's such a public pick a little

1134
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 1: bit like the Bills are the super Bowl favorite. Now

1135
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: that the favorite on the road against the Bengals team

1136
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 1: that they're not really that much different then, like if

1137
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 1: the Bengals upset the Bills and the playoffs, I don't

1138
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 1: think I want to be that shocked. Like we all

1139
00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 1: put we're all putting Joe Burrow down that same type

1140
00:58:50,560 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 1: of tier as we're putting, uh, the Mahomes and the

1141
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 1: Josh Allens of the league. So um interesting, interesting, played

1142
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 1: by check because to me, the the teams are playing

1143
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 1: the bank, which just feels safe. Like whoever wins this game,

1144
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 1: if to me, will come down to a field goal

1145
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 1: or a touchdown. Um, you know, I mean I love

1146
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 1: a good home dog. So you're probably right. The Bills

1147
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: are probably the right play in the sense that they're

1148
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 1: healthier right now. There's a bunch of injuries to the

1149
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 1: interior line of this Bengals team, and it's gonna shock people.

1150
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 1: I believe the Bills lead the league and yards per carry,

1151
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:26,480
Speaker 1: like they're just they're a better running team that people realize,

1152
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 1: just because of the Josh Allen effect where even if

1153
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 1: he's not the one running it, they always have to

1154
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 1: account for an defender for Josh Allens, I always leaves

1155
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:37,080
Speaker 1: one less guy to plug up those holes when they

1156
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 1: do run the ball. So yeah, if the Bills can

1157
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 1: control the clock and keep draw off the field, they'll win.

1158
00:59:41,880 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 1: But this fields like at last possession games chat, and

1159
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 1: that's what scares me about it, where it's like it's

1160
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:49,479
Speaker 1: truly a coin flip game. Joe, Joe burrows the ball last.

1161
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 1: How do you feel about your bet? And vice versa

1162
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:55,680
Speaker 1: where it's like if if we are down by a

1163
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 1: one point and Josh Allen has the ball, all we

1164
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:00,919
Speaker 1: needs a field goal Chat, I feel like we're gonna

1165
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 1: win that bet. So it's that tough spot where it's like,

1166
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 1: whoever the ball lasts is gonna win this game. I

1167
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:12,919
Speaker 1: feel uh significantly better about Josh Allen having the ball

1168
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 1: right now than Joe Burrow. I I just think that

1169
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:21,920
Speaker 1: the Bills are healthier. Yeah, but Joe Burrow is playing it.

1170
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 1: I would say Joe Burrows playing a much higher level

1171
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 1: than Josh Allen. Not the show on Josh Allen right now,

1172
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: but Josh Allen. He can't stop turning the ball over,

1173
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 1: especially in the red zone. Like that's gonna bite his

1174
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 1: ass at some point this year. That's why, you know what,

1175
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 1: it's gonna bite his ass. Second round at home against

1176
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 1: the Bengals, This to me feels like the Bills are

1177
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 1: get the crap out of them, gonna win this game.

1178
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:53,720
Speaker 1: And on January whatever, that Saturday or Sunday is when

1179
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 1: the play the Bengals, the Bills are gonna be like

1180
01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 1: three point favorites, and then the public is going to

1181
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:03,680
Speaker 1: come in on the Bengals because they will have won

1182
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 1: their wild card game convincingly and we're going to smash

1183
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:11,400
Speaker 1: the Bills. Alright, Well, all right with you on this one,

1184
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 1: because I honestly, I think it's a fair number. Like

1185
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 1: I make the line of pick, it's still under two,

1186
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 1: which to me, two is a key number. So I'll

1187
01:01:18,520 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: take the one and a half way you chat on

1188
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 1: the Bills, but man, this is I don't feel like

1189
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:25,840
Speaker 1: you're convinced because it's scary. It's it's like there's other

1190
01:01:25,840 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 1: games where I feel more more convinced, where it's like, dude,

1191
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow has a as a whatever a bunny bunny's

1192
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 1: foot up his ass like he's the luckiest dude ever

1193
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: like that. I can't get over the fact that covered

1194
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 1: that game. I know people are be like, oh, well

1195
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 1: they may struct your points to all this other bullshit.

1196
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 1: That kept saying like no, like that was a scheduled

1197
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 1: loss cover This is insane. The teams never people don't

1198
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 1: get out crazies. This team literally went to the super

1199
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 1: Bowl and now the following year there are twelve and

1200
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 1: three or whatever it is now thirteen and three a

1201
01:01:58,160 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 1: t s. That doesn't happen the books, No, the public

1202
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 1: will be all over the team that went to the

1203
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 1: super Bowl last year. So this, this Joe Burrows ship

1204
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 1: chat just freaks me out because he's he's we're always

1205
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:10,040
Speaker 1: talking about. He's the neo, He's the glitchen that matrix

1206
01:02:10,160 --> 01:02:14,080
Speaker 1: like he he breaks models. He should not be covering

1207
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:17,720
Speaker 1: the way he's been covering. So I'll tease the Bengals

1208
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna rat with chatting the Bills. I'm gonna

1209
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:21,360
Speaker 1: ty I had that nice little middle spot where the

1210
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 1: Bills went by a field goal. I covered my seven

1211
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 1: a half with the Bengals because it's just a nice

1212
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:29,080
Speaker 1: teaser leg This Bengals team, I feel like you're giving

1213
01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 1: This is like a hittie play. I'll do it with

1214
01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 1: your kid. I'll go with you. I don't love it,

1215
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:38,040
Speaker 1: but I like your spunk. You're gonna you know, I

1216
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 1: think you got a shot. Well, I love better on

1217
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: the best games of the week, so it's like I'm

1218
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:44,200
Speaker 1: gonna have money on regardless. Um, I was just gonna

1219
01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:46,080
Speaker 1: tease and stay away from it. But like, listen to

1220
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:48,320
Speaker 1: you something. You're making some good points where it's like

1221
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,000
Speaker 1: I talked to a bunch of the pros and they're like, yeah,

1222
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 1: fucking Bills are smash spot. This will be auto playing

1223
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:56,480
Speaker 1: the contest just right now. Let's sprinkle a little bit

1224
01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 1: on it for you because I'm with you. It's like

1225
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 1: the Bills seemed like the right side. I right, well,

1226
01:03:01,080 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 1: then I want the right to I want to reserve

1227
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:06,840
Speaker 1: my right to change my exact decision come Thursday after

1228
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 1: we get some sharp calls. That's what I would say,

1229
01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:16,439
Speaker 1: all right. Uh, Foxhold was Texans plus four. Simon says

1230
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:20,800
Speaker 1: his Vikings plus three and a half. The exact decision

1231
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:25,280
Speaker 1: is Bills minus one and a half. UM for the contest,

1232
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,800
Speaker 1: we are looking at Texans plus four. We are thinking

1233
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 1: about Las Vegas plus six. We're thinking about Jets minus

1234
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:35,400
Speaker 1: two and a half. We're thinking about Rams plus six

1235
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:38,040
Speaker 1: and a half. In addition to the games I discussed,

1236
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 1: UM say again some okay, and then uh, we're we're

1237
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 1: waiting to see if Miami hits three against the Patriots.

1238
01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 1: Um So, look, I'm feeling a little trepidacious right now.

1239
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,800
Speaker 1: My confidence is a little shot. It's another reason why

1240
01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,040
Speaker 1: I'm sort of having a hard time coming up with

1241
01:03:59,080 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 1: an exact decision. My confidence it's already gone. Brother, I

1242
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:06,240
Speaker 1: it's gone. It's gone. But I'm not seeing the board

1243
01:04:06,320 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 1: the way I normally would. That's good, though, honestly, I

1244
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 1: feel like that's better. If you love everything tends to

1245
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:14,240
Speaker 1: be a little risk here. That was the problem last

1246
01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 1: week because I loved everything and I overbet I made.

1247
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:18,920
Speaker 1: I made bets last week for more money than I

1248
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:22,000
Speaker 1: have a year, and it significant limp bit me. I'm

1249
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:25,000
Speaker 1: going to be much more prudent, much more cautious, fewer bets,

1250
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 1: probably lower my unit size for the week, just sort

1251
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 1: of get my legs under me again. I've made I've

1252
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 1: made a couple of bets so far. So there's been

1253
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network for producer Extraordinary

1254
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, for my bff Simon Hunter, I Am Chad Moman.

1255
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 1: Download us from Apple, podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get

1256
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 1: your podcast. Don't forget rate reviews. Subscribed with five stars,

1257
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:50,320
Speaker 1: save it over you you want feedback is a gift.

1258
01:04:50,480 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 1: Listen all the way through. Please until next time. I

1259
01:04:54,200 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1260
01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:05,600
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1261
01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:09,040
Speaker 1: help is available. Seven Gambler