WEBVTT - Here's Why Trump Says He Can Get a Deal with Putin

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is Here's Why, where we take one news story

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<v Speaker 1>and explain it in just a few minutes with our

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<v Speaker 1>experts here at Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will

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<v Speaker 2>have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled, and

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<v Speaker 2>it will take me no longer than one day.

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<v Speaker 1>I know exactly what to say to each of them.

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<v Speaker 1>I got along with very well with him. It was

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<v Speaker 1>a comment made during the US presidential campaign that made

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<v Speaker 1>headlines around the world. And while it's not over yet,

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump has started a process which may well lead

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<v Speaker 1>to an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>We have the perfect deal maker at the table from

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<v Speaker 2>a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin

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<v Speaker 2>and Zolinsky.

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<v Speaker 1>The negotiations are already underway, with the meeting of America

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<v Speaker 1>and Russia's top diplomats and sa Arabia paving the way

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<v Speaker 1>for face to face talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's why Trump says he can get a deal with Putin.

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<v Speaker 1>Our senior writer Stephanie Baker, who's written a book called

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<v Speaker 1>Ponishing Putin on the financial measures the West has taken

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<v Speaker 1>against Moscow. Joins me. Now for more, Stephanie. First of all,

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<v Speaker 1>what sort of relationship does Donald Trump have with Vladimir Putin?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you could call it a bromance of sorts in

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<v Speaker 2>very jarring circumstances. Despite Putin invading Ukraine and killing and

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<v Speaker 2>maiming hundreds of thousands of people, Trump has mostly spoken

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<v Speaker 2>of Putin in positive terms. They had a ninety minute

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<v Speaker 2>call last week, the first contact between a US president

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<v Speaker 2>and Putin since twenty twenty one, and Trump was in

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<v Speaker 2>admiration of Putin during his first term. Remember, his administration

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<v Speaker 2>rolled out tougher sanctions on Russia, but that was mostly

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<v Speaker 2>under pressure from Congress and his hawkish national security advisors.

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<v Speaker 2>So he's spoken very warmly of him and spoken, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>of the likelihood of doing a deal very quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>Has Trump given Putin advantage by promising to move quickly

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<v Speaker 1>on this?

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<v Speaker 2>Unfortunately, Yes, after some initial talk of ramping up sanctions

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<v Speaker 2>on Russia if Putin wouldn't agree to end the war,

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<v Speaker 2>he now thinks that Putin is ready to do a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump just recently said that a third rate deal maker

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<v Speaker 2>could have ended this war three years ago and actually

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<v Speaker 2>blamed Ukraine for starting it, which is not correct. It

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<v Speaker 2>was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Now, of course, it's easy

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<v Speaker 2>to do a deal if you agree to all of

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<v Speaker 2>Putin's terms, but that's not a deal that Ukraine can

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<v Speaker 2>sign up to, and it's not a deal that Europe

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<v Speaker 2>is ready to support either. You know, Trumpet administration officials

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<v Speaker 2>have already seated key bargaining chips before formal negotiations have

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<v Speaker 2>even begun. You know, say NATO mem worship for Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>is off the table, and that it's unrealistic for Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>to regain it's twenty fourteen borders. So those are things

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<v Speaker 2>that might be part of an eventual agreement. But the

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<v Speaker 2>idea of acquiescing to those Russian demands before actual negotiations

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<v Speaker 2>start doesn't make a lot of sense. And it's an

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<v Speaker 2>extraordinary shift for the US administration after three years of

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<v Speaker 2>isolating Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>What do we know about the areas where Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>of Vladimir Putin might agree or disagree as they get

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<v Speaker 1>into those negotiations.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Trump appears to have agreed to Putin's demands that

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<v Speaker 2>NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table ceding territory

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<v Speaker 2>to Russia. We don't know how much. I think the

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<v Speaker 2>key sticking point will be this tripwire. For some people

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<v Speaker 2>call it a peacekeeping operation. The UK has offered to

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<v Speaker 2>send troops to back that up, but said that they

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<v Speaker 2>need US assurances to support or any operation. Already, the

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<v Speaker 2>Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lvoff has said that Russia cannot

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<v Speaker 2>agree to European and troops in Ukraine. You know, this

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<v Speaker 2>is a key demand of the Russians, that they do

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<v Speaker 2>not want any kind of NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 2>even if it's not formally NATO. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald trumpasaid that Ukraine will be involved in later talks.

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<v Speaker 1>But how much leverage can present Vlashomir Zelenski have in

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<v Speaker 1>these negotiations, given that the framework appears to be being

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<v Speaker 1>established without him.

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<v Speaker 2>Right well, Zelensky wasn't in the talks in Riyad. Trump

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<v Speaker 2>has said that he will be included later, But I

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<v Speaker 2>think the concern is that a lot of things will

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<v Speaker 2>be agreed without the Ukrainians participation. I think in reality

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<v Speaker 2>Zelensky has very little leverage. He's wholly dependent on US

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<v Speaker 2>and European aid. Europe just can't mount this tripwire force

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<v Speaker 2>without US military logistics and support. Has already started talking

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<v Speaker 2>about the need for Ukrainian elections, which is a key

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<v Speaker 2>Russian talking point. Putin has said that Zelenski is an

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<v Speaker 2>illegitimate leader. He was elected in twenty nineteen and they

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<v Speaker 2>haven't held elections because of martial law in the war.

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<v Speaker 2>But the idea of holding an election now with the

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<v Speaker 2>country at war is unrealistic. You know, how do you

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<v Speaker 2>secure polling stations, How do soldiers in the trenches vote?

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<v Speaker 2>What about the six million Ukrainian refugees outside the country,

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<v Speaker 2>And if they lift martial law, Ukrainian men who are

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<v Speaker 2>barred from leaving the country would be able to leave.

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<v Speaker 2>So how do you negotiate? How do you arrange elections?

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<v Speaker 2>You know, in that case, they'd have to change the law.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Trump has demanded also that Ukraine seed fifty

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<v Speaker 2>percent of its critical mineral resources, not only for future

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<v Speaker 2>security assurances, but to reimburse the US for past military

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<v Speaker 2>and financial aid, which is an extraordinary demand that Zelensky

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<v Speaker 2>has so far resisted.

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<v Speaker 1>Your book looked at the financial sanctums that the West

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<v Speaker 1>is imposed on Putin because of this, will they be

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<v Speaker 1>a key tool in these negotiations as well as it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to trying perhaps to secure concessions from Vladimir Putin.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, and here's the irony. Putin has said repeatedly that

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<v Speaker 2>Russia is strong, it can survive the sanctions, but one

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<v Speaker 2>of its key demands is the lifting of sanctions because

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<v Speaker 2>they have been painful, as I detailed in my book

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<v Speaker 2>Punishing Putin. Those G seven economic sanctions on Russia cost

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<v Speaker 2>the country hundreds of billions of dollars, and Putin wants

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<v Speaker 2>sanctions relief, I think primarily to regroup and rearm. And

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<v Speaker 2>they are absolutely going to be bargaining chips at the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiating table. Whether or not they're going to be used

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<v Speaker 2>effectively remains to be seen. There had been some noise

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<v Speaker 2>from comments from Trump that he could ramp up those

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<v Speaker 2>sanctions to possibly extra more concessions from Putin, which would

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<v Speaker 2>have been a smart way to use them. Instead, you

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<v Speaker 2>have Marco Rubio talking about starting negotiations for economic cooperation

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<v Speaker 2>with Russia, which is kind of an extraordinary statement given

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<v Speaker 2>that Trump has been threatening tariffs on the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Stephanie Baker, our senior writer, Thank you. Stephanie's book Punishing

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<v Speaker 1>Putin is out now. For more explanations like this from

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<v Speaker 1>our team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>search for quick take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business app. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is Here's why. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.