Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and
Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story
Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our
Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will
Speaker 2: have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled, and
Speaker 2: it will take me no longer than one day.
Speaker 1: I know exactly what to say to each of them.
Speaker 1: I got along with very well with him. It was
Speaker 1: a comment made during the US presidential campaign that made
Speaker 1: headlines around the world. And while it's not over yet,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has started a process which may well lead
Speaker 1: to an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: We have the perfect deal maker at the table from
Speaker 2: a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin
Speaker 2: and Zolinsky.
Speaker 1: The negotiations are already underway, with the meeting of America
Speaker 1: and Russia's top diplomats and sa Arabia paving the way
Speaker 1: for face to face talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 1: Here's why Trump says he can get a deal with Putin.
Speaker 1: Our senior writer Stephanie Baker, who's written a book called
Speaker 1: Ponishing Putin on the financial measures the West has taken
Speaker 1: against Moscow. Joins me. Now for more, Stephanie. First of all,
Speaker 1: what sort of relationship does Donald Trump have with Vladimir Putin?
Speaker 2: Well, you could call it a bromance of sorts in
Speaker 2: very jarring circumstances. Despite Putin invading Ukraine and killing and
Speaker 2: maiming hundreds of thousands of people, Trump has mostly spoken
Speaker 2: of Putin in positive terms. They had a ninety minute
Speaker 2: call last week, the first contact between a US president
Speaker 2: and Putin since twenty twenty one, and Trump was in
Speaker 2: admiration of Putin during his first term. Remember, his administration
Speaker 2: rolled out tougher sanctions on Russia, but that was mostly
Speaker 2: under pressure from Congress and his hawkish national security advisors.
Speaker 2: So he's spoken very warmly of him and spoken, you know,
Speaker 2: of the likelihood of doing a deal very quickly.
Speaker 1: Has Trump given Putin advantage by promising to move quickly
Speaker 1: on this?
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, Yes, after some initial talk of ramping up sanctions
Speaker 2: on Russia if Putin wouldn't agree to end the war,
Speaker 2: he now thinks that Putin is ready to do a deal.
Speaker 2: Trump just recently said that a third rate deal maker
Speaker 2: could have ended this war three years ago and actually
Speaker 2: blamed Ukraine for starting it, which is not correct. It
Speaker 2: was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Now, of course, it's easy
Speaker 2: to do a deal if you agree to all of
Speaker 2: Putin's terms, but that's not a deal that Ukraine can
Speaker 2: sign up to, and it's not a deal that Europe
Speaker 2: is ready to support either. You know, Trumpet administration officials
Speaker 2: have already seated key bargaining chips before formal negotiations have
Speaker 2: even begun. You know, say NATO mem worship for Ukraine
Speaker 2: is off the table, and that it's unrealistic for Ukraine
Speaker 2: to regain it's twenty fourteen borders. So those are things
Speaker 2: that might be part of an eventual agreement. But the
Speaker 2: idea of acquiescing to those Russian demands before actual negotiations
Speaker 2: start doesn't make a lot of sense. And it's an
Speaker 2: extraordinary shift for the US administration after three years of
Speaker 2: isolating Russia.
Speaker 1: What do we know about the areas where Donald Trump
Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin might agree or disagree as they get
Speaker 1: into those negotiations.
Speaker 2: Well, Trump appears to have agreed to Putin's demands that
Speaker 2: NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table ceding territory
Speaker 2: to Russia. We don't know how much. I think the
Speaker 2: key sticking point will be this tripwire. For some people
Speaker 2: call it a peacekeeping operation. The UK has offered to
Speaker 2: send troops to back that up, but said that they
Speaker 2: need US assurances to support or any operation. Already, the
Speaker 2: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lvoff has said that Russia cannot
Speaker 2: agree to European and troops in Ukraine. You know, this
Speaker 2: is a key demand of the Russians, that they do
Speaker 2: not want any kind of NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine,
Speaker 2: even if it's not formally NATO. Now.
Speaker 1: Donald trumpasaid that Ukraine will be involved in later talks.
Speaker 1: But how much leverage can present Vlashomir Zelenski have in
Speaker 1: these negotiations, given that the framework appears to be being
Speaker 1: established without him.
Speaker 2: Right well, Zelensky wasn't in the talks in Riyad. Trump
Speaker 2: has said that he will be included later, But I
Speaker 2: think the concern is that a lot of things will
Speaker 2: be agreed without the Ukrainians participation. I think in reality
Speaker 2: Zelensky has very little leverage. He's wholly dependent on US
Speaker 2: and European aid. Europe just can't mount this tripwire force
Speaker 2: without US military logistics and support. Has already started talking
Speaker 2: about the need for Ukrainian elections, which is a key
Speaker 2: Russian talking point. Putin has said that Zelenski is an
Speaker 2: illegitimate leader. He was elected in twenty nineteen and they
Speaker 2: haven't held elections because of martial law in the war.
Speaker 2: But the idea of holding an election now with the
Speaker 2: country at war is unrealistic. You know, how do you
Speaker 2: secure polling stations, How do soldiers in the trenches vote?
Speaker 2: What about the six million Ukrainian refugees outside the country,
Speaker 2: And if they lift martial law, Ukrainian men who are
Speaker 2: barred from leaving the country would be able to leave.
Speaker 2: So how do you negotiate? How do you arrange elections?
Speaker 2: You know, in that case, they'd have to change the law.
Speaker 2: I think Trump has demanded also that Ukraine seed fifty
Speaker 2: percent of its critical mineral resources, not only for future
Speaker 2: security assurances, but to reimburse the US for past military
Speaker 2: and financial aid, which is an extraordinary demand that Zelensky
Speaker 2: has so far resisted.
Speaker 1: Your book looked at the financial sanctums that the West
Speaker 1: is imposed on Putin because of this, will they be
Speaker 1: a key tool in these negotiations as well as it
Speaker 1: comes to trying perhaps to secure concessions from Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and here's the irony. Putin has said repeatedly that
Speaker 2: Russia is strong, it can survive the sanctions, but one
Speaker 2: of its key demands is the lifting of sanctions because
Speaker 2: they have been painful, as I detailed in my book
Speaker 2: Punishing Putin. Those G seven economic sanctions on Russia cost
Speaker 2: the country hundreds of billions of dollars, and Putin wants
Speaker 2: sanctions relief, I think primarily to regroup and rearm. And
Speaker 2: they are absolutely going to be bargaining chips at the
Speaker 2: negotiating table. Whether or not they're going to be used
Speaker 2: effectively remains to be seen. There had been some noise
Speaker 2: from comments from Trump that he could ramp up those
Speaker 2: sanctions to possibly extra more concessions from Putin, which would
Speaker 2: have been a smart way to use them. Instead, you
Speaker 2: have Marco Rubio talking about starting negotiations for economic cooperation
Speaker 2: with Russia, which is kind of an extraordinary statement given
Speaker 2: that Trump has been threatening tariffs on the rest of
Speaker 2: the world.
Speaker 1: Stephanie Baker, our senior writer, Thank you. Stephanie's book Punishing
Speaker 1: Putin is out now. For more explanations like this from
Speaker 1: our team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world,
Speaker 1: search for quick take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business app. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is Here's why. I'll
Speaker 1: be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.