1
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:10,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and

2
00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story

3
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,200
Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our

4
00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,800
Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg.

5
00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,239
Speaker 2: Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, I will

6
00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:28,000
Speaker 2: have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine settled, and

7
00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,040
Speaker 2: it will take me no longer than one day.

8
00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:31,840
Speaker 1: I know exactly what to say to each of them.

9
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,040
Speaker 1: I got along with very well with him. It was

10
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,160
Speaker 1: a comment made during the US presidential campaign that made

11
00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,240
Speaker 1: headlines around the world. And while it's not over yet,

12
00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:44,000
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has started a process which may well lead

13
00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,280
Speaker 1: to an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.

14
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,440
Speaker 2: We have the perfect deal maker at the table from

15
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,800
Speaker 2: a position of strength to deal with both Vladimir Putin

16
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:54,080
Speaker 2: and Zolinsky.

17
00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,840
Speaker 1: The negotiations are already underway, with the meeting of America

18
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,560
Speaker 1: and Russia's top diplomats and sa Arabia paving the way

19
00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,480
Speaker 1: for face to face talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

20
00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,759
Speaker 1: Here's why Trump says he can get a deal with Putin.

21
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,160
Speaker 1: Our senior writer Stephanie Baker, who's written a book called

22
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,959
Speaker 1: Ponishing Putin on the financial measures the West has taken

23
00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:22,080
Speaker 1: against Moscow. Joins me. Now for more, Stephanie. First of all,

24
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,959
Speaker 1: what sort of relationship does Donald Trump have with Vladimir Putin?

25
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,800
Speaker 2: Well, you could call it a bromance of sorts in

26
00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:36,200
Speaker 2: very jarring circumstances. Despite Putin invading Ukraine and killing and

27
00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,360
Speaker 2: maiming hundreds of thousands of people, Trump has mostly spoken

28
00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,680
Speaker 2: of Putin in positive terms. They had a ninety minute

29
00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:47,080
Speaker 2: call last week, the first contact between a US president

30
00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:51,320
Speaker 2: and Putin since twenty twenty one, and Trump was in

31
00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:56,000
Speaker 2: admiration of Putin during his first term. Remember, his administration

32
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,680
Speaker 2: rolled out tougher sanctions on Russia, but that was mostly

33
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:04,360
Speaker 2: under pressure from Congress and his hawkish national security advisors.

34
00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 2: So he's spoken very warmly of him and spoken, you know,

35
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:10,920
Speaker 2: of the likelihood of doing a deal very quickly.

36
00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,920
Speaker 1: Has Trump given Putin advantage by promising to move quickly

37
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:15,399
Speaker 1: on this?

38
00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,840
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, Yes, after some initial talk of ramping up sanctions

39
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,200
Speaker 2: on Russia if Putin wouldn't agree to end the war,

40
00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 2: he now thinks that Putin is ready to do a deal.

41
00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,320
Speaker 2: Trump just recently said that a third rate deal maker

42
00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,320
Speaker 2: could have ended this war three years ago and actually

43
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,800
Speaker 2: blamed Ukraine for starting it, which is not correct. It

44
00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,840
Speaker 2: was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Now, of course, it's easy

45
00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,080
Speaker 2: to do a deal if you agree to all of

46
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,399
Speaker 2: Putin's terms, but that's not a deal that Ukraine can

47
00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 2: sign up to, and it's not a deal that Europe

48
00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:52,200
Speaker 2: is ready to support either. You know, Trumpet administration officials

49
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:57,400
Speaker 2: have already seated key bargaining chips before formal negotiations have

50
00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:01,080
Speaker 2: even begun. You know, say NATO mem worship for Ukraine

51
00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,520
Speaker 2: is off the table, and that it's unrealistic for Ukraine

52
00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:09,360
Speaker 2: to regain it's twenty fourteen borders. So those are things

53
00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,280
Speaker 2: that might be part of an eventual agreement. But the

54
00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:17,600
Speaker 2: idea of acquiescing to those Russian demands before actual negotiations

55
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:19,880
Speaker 2: start doesn't make a lot of sense. And it's an

56
00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:25,200
Speaker 2: extraordinary shift for the US administration after three years of

57
00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:26,200
Speaker 2: isolating Russia.

58
00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,919
Speaker 1: What do we know about the areas where Donald Trump

59
00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,799
Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin might agree or disagree as they get

60
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:34,280
Speaker 1: into those negotiations.

61
00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,880
Speaker 2: Well, Trump appears to have agreed to Putin's demands that

62
00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,960
Speaker 2: NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table ceding territory

63
00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,320
Speaker 2: to Russia. We don't know how much. I think the

64
00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:50,160
Speaker 2: key sticking point will be this tripwire. For some people

65
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,760
Speaker 2: call it a peacekeeping operation. The UK has offered to

66
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,720
Speaker 2: send troops to back that up, but said that they

67
00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:02,800
Speaker 2: need US assurances to support or any operation. Already, the

68
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:07,000
Speaker 2: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lvoff has said that Russia cannot

69
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 2: agree to European and troops in Ukraine. You know, this

70
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,280
Speaker 2: is a key demand of the Russians, that they do

71
00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:18,200
Speaker 2: not want any kind of NATO peacekeeping force in Ukraine,

72
00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,400
Speaker 2: even if it's not formally NATO. Now.

73
00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,960
Speaker 1: Donald trumpasaid that Ukraine will be involved in later talks.

74
00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,880
Speaker 1: But how much leverage can present Vlashomir Zelenski have in

75
00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,920
Speaker 1: these negotiations, given that the framework appears to be being

76
00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:33,640
Speaker 1: established without him.

77
00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:37,480
Speaker 2: Right well, Zelensky wasn't in the talks in Riyad. Trump

78
00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,760
Speaker 2: has said that he will be included later, But I

79
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 2: think the concern is that a lot of things will

80
00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:47,159
Speaker 2: be agreed without the Ukrainians participation. I think in reality

81
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,280
Speaker 2: Zelensky has very little leverage. He's wholly dependent on US

82
00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,960
Speaker 2: and European aid. Europe just can't mount this tripwire force

83
00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:02,239
Speaker 2: without US military logistics and support. Has already started talking

84
00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:06,239
Speaker 2: about the need for Ukrainian elections, which is a key

85
00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:10,440
Speaker 2: Russian talking point. Putin has said that Zelenski is an

86
00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,200
Speaker 2: illegitimate leader. He was elected in twenty nineteen and they

87
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,200
Speaker 2: haven't held elections because of martial law in the war.

88
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,440
Speaker 2: But the idea of holding an election now with the

89
00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,919
Speaker 2: country at war is unrealistic. You know, how do you

90
00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:28,279
Speaker 2: secure polling stations, How do soldiers in the trenches vote?

91
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,839
Speaker 2: What about the six million Ukrainian refugees outside the country,

92
00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,760
Speaker 2: And if they lift martial law, Ukrainian men who are

93
00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,279
Speaker 2: barred from leaving the country would be able to leave.

94
00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,480
Speaker 2: So how do you negotiate? How do you arrange elections?

95
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,880
Speaker 2: You know, in that case, they'd have to change the law.

96
00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,000
Speaker 2: I think Trump has demanded also that Ukraine seed fifty

97
00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,719
Speaker 2: percent of its critical mineral resources, not only for future

98
00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:58,560
Speaker 2: security assurances, but to reimburse the US for past military

99
00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,279
Speaker 2: and financial aid, which is an extraordinary demand that Zelensky

100
00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:03,479
Speaker 2: has so far resisted.

101
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,880
Speaker 1: Your book looked at the financial sanctums that the West

102
00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,520
Speaker 1: is imposed on Putin because of this, will they be

103
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,200
Speaker 1: a key tool in these negotiations as well as it

104
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,560
Speaker 1: comes to trying perhaps to secure concessions from Vladimir Putin.

105
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:20,120
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and here's the irony. Putin has said repeatedly that

106
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,480
Speaker 2: Russia is strong, it can survive the sanctions, but one

107
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,559
Speaker 2: of its key demands is the lifting of sanctions because

108
00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,440
Speaker 2: they have been painful, as I detailed in my book

109
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:35,240
Speaker 2: Punishing Putin. Those G seven economic sanctions on Russia cost

110
00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:40,200
Speaker 2: the country hundreds of billions of dollars, and Putin wants

111
00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:45,080
Speaker 2: sanctions relief, I think primarily to regroup and rearm. And

112
00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,599
Speaker 2: they are absolutely going to be bargaining chips at the

113
00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,440
Speaker 2: negotiating table. Whether or not they're going to be used

114
00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,360
Speaker 2: effectively remains to be seen. There had been some noise

115
00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,560
Speaker 2: from comments from Trump that he could ramp up those

116
00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,960
Speaker 2: sanctions to possibly extra more concessions from Putin, which would

117
00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,960
Speaker 2: have been a smart way to use them. Instead, you

118
00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:10,320
Speaker 2: have Marco Rubio talking about starting negotiations for economic cooperation

119
00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,679
Speaker 2: with Russia, which is kind of an extraordinary statement given

120
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,720
Speaker 2: that Trump has been threatening tariffs on the rest of

121
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 2: the world.

122
00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,720
Speaker 1: Stephanie Baker, our senior writer, Thank you. Stephanie's book Punishing

123
00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 1: Putin is out now. For more explanations like this from

124
00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,400
Speaker 1: our team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world,

125
00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,280
Speaker 1: search for quick take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg

126
00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:34,280
Speaker 1: Business app. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is Here's why. I'll

127
00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 1: be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.