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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live for my time in John Home Studio, and I'm

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Speaker 1: joined as always buy my co host, my companion, Mike

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Speaker 1: Padre my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Happy Halloween, Chad.

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Speaker 1: I should mention to people who are listening, Simon is

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Speaker 1: not going to sound like this the whole time. Simon

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Speaker 1: is wearing a scream mask in honor of Halloween. I'm

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Speaker 1: so scared. I don't know if I'm more scared of

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Speaker 1: the decisions we have to make today. What our big

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Speaker 1: balls bet of the week is going to be, what

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Speaker 1: our foxhol is going to be, That I stayed up

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Speaker 1: so late watching the Dodger Yankees last night that I

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Speaker 1: was live betting the Bulls when they were twenty down

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Speaker 1: and won my bet because I have so much confidence

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Speaker 1: in this team. Today is our NFL Week nine Best

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Speaker 1: Bets episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our five

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Speaker 1: picks in the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest presented by Bet three six five sign

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Speaker 1: up now Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We'll get into

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Speaker 1: the foxhol We'll give out our Tommy John Big Balls

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Speaker 1: bet of the week. We're gonna discuss Simon's biggest bets.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna discuss our boosted money line Underdog parlay, which

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Speaker 1: are rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made.

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Speaker 1: As our volume podcast, Boss Colin Coward likes to say

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Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder

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Speaker 1: of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six

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Speaker 1: five and now new Bet three sixty five customers get

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty five must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during the season. We

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Speaker 1: like to hear how the wise guys are responding to

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. The lines

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Speaker 1: move based on our conversations, and the pros feel compelled

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Speaker 1: to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello there, I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone rang, somebody saying.

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Speaker 3: Maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's there for a game that me and Chad

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Speaker 2: probably aren't gonna talk about today, So we'll just got

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Speaker 2: out of the way. People know the professionals love the Jets.

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Speaker 2: I don't get it. Chat doesn't get it. Apparently the

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Speaker 2: trends do point to it, though, after reading Evan's article,

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Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, I can see why they liked this spot.

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Speaker 2: There are some some nice spots here to take this

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Speaker 2: Jets team. Historically, this is a good spot to take them.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think we've ever think we've seen something

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Speaker 2: like this historically with this team, and I know that

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Speaker 2: their record doesn't reflect who they are because of how

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Speaker 2: bad their kicker has been. And they look look like

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Speaker 2: they listened to us last week chat or on a

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Speaker 2: shit say. On Tuesday, they got rid of their kicker. Finally,

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Speaker 2: I think it's a little too late. I know Houston

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Speaker 2: has a ton of injuries. This got up to two

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Speaker 2: and a half at one point. I don know if

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Speaker 2: you saw Houston get up two and a half. I

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Speaker 2: had to take a piece of it once I got

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Speaker 2: to two and a half. Now it's back down to

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Speaker 2: one and a half. So do you want to bet

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Speaker 2: with the professionals tonight? They're not always right, but they

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Speaker 2: do like the Jets, But I am going to go

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Speaker 2: against them on the Houston side. All right, let's get

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Speaker 2: to the other games that actually matter. Off the top,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Chad talked about Tuesday, both liked it. Weren't

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Speaker 2: really sure what to do with it though, just because

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Speaker 2: the number had move so much. You know, it's it's

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Speaker 2: now down to one and a half for Cleveland. I

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Speaker 2: don't know where you're at with this Cleveland team. I

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Speaker 2: get why these guys are coming from. My whole pushback

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Speaker 2: to them was, you guys are all talking is if

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Speaker 2: you're not the ones that got this at three and

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Speaker 2: two and a half. Now me and Chad are coming

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Speaker 2: in for the scraps at one and a half. If

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Speaker 2: we like the Browns. That was my only pushback. I

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Speaker 2: get why the professionals love the Browns here, they love

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Speaker 2: the number, they think they're gonna win out right, totally

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Speaker 2: get it. Their season's turned around. Chad will go into

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Speaker 2: I guess more. But you nailed it when you said

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Speaker 2: it's the Winston effect.

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Speaker 1: Though.

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Speaker 2: That's my hesitation here another game. I mean, you both

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Speaker 2: love the professionals are against us on Miami Dolphins, but wow,

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Speaker 2: I know there's some strong Dolphin money coming in. I

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Speaker 2: just think they're betting or wrong. Chad, I just think

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Speaker 2: they're betting wrong. I really do so. I haven't changed

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Speaker 2: my position on that. Still like the Bills, still think

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Speaker 2: that's a good spot for us, but shocked to find

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Speaker 2: out that a lot of professionals like that other side.

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Speaker 2: For games, we love the pros love Green Bay, no brainer.

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Speaker 2: That's when we'll dive way more into professionals love that.

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Speaker 2: I still think it's gonna go down to three. A

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Speaker 2: couple of books have already gone to three. Get the

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Speaker 2: three and a half while you still can. I just

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Speaker 2: think professional money. Once Jordan Love is given them all

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Speaker 2: good good to go today or tomorrow, this line will

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Speaker 2: drop to three again. We haven't talked much about that.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we will more today. Giants. The professionals actually liked Washington.

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Speaker 2: It's a little split. It's not as clear cut as

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Speaker 2: I thought I was going to be. It's interesting, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think it's something we talked about where this Giants

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Speaker 2: team is just very it's just bad. We've talked this

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Speaker 2: year about these bad teams and how bad they are.

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Speaker 2: Daniel Jones still isn't thrown a touchdown at home. It

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Speaker 2: is week nine.

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Speaker 1: So I'm glad to hear this. We're gonna let's le's

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Speaker 1: get to the next one.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into that more.

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Speaker 1: Because like, the more research I did, the less I

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Speaker 1: liked your opinion about the Giants, So.

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Speaker 2: I know I'm a sucker. I love the Giants again,

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Speaker 2: we both like. I don't think we're going to put

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Speaker 2: in our contest though, Tampa. I've heard some really smart

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Speaker 2: groups of coming on Tampa to me, that's such a

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Speaker 2: bet me and Chad always make just because it's a

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Speaker 2: huge number against the Chiefs. I don't think there's anything

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Speaker 2: sharp about it. Though I can't get a good read

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Speaker 2: on it. I got no interest putting this one in

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Speaker 2: another one that maybe we'll talk a little bit about

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Speaker 2: just a Again, we're on opposite sides of it. Professionals

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Speaker 2: like the Ravens, I like Denver. Maybe you want to

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Speaker 2: dive into that one more, But I think we're not

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Speaker 2: missing the mark here, that we're just playing the number

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Speaker 2: because it's such a big number and it's that Ravens defense.

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Speaker 2: Their view of it is this Ravens team is going

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Speaker 2: to roll this Denver team, that they're better all of it.

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Speaker 2: They believe in all of this Ravens hype, and especially

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Speaker 2: even after reading Eman's article, there's trends say take the

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Speaker 2: nine here with this Denver not only is Sharpayne great

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Speaker 2: is a big dog here. We talked about lamar struggles,

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Speaker 2: especially on it's above three and a half. He's just

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Speaker 2: a different quarterback. They usually played down to their competition levels.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot to dive into. Chack pretty split

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Speaker 2: this week between us and the professionals.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's interesting, and they touched on all the games

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Speaker 1: and sort of the challenges I was having as I

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Speaker 1: dug in deeper the past forty eight hours, as I

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Speaker 1: try to reimagine how we're framing our arguments here last week,

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Speaker 1: Week eight, Public nine and six, week before ten and four,

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Speaker 1: week before that ten three and one. So after five

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Speaker 1: weeks of getting crushed to the tune of the worst

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Speaker 1: start in twenty years for the public, they are now

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Speaker 1: dominating the past three weeks. So you know, we'd like

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Speaker 1: to fade the public. It's gone okay for us in

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Speaker 1: certain spots. Let's see how it rolls this week. First

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Speaker 1: game up Denver plus nine and a half at Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: As I go through this, the reasons to back Denver.

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Speaker 1: Their defense is fierce amongst the league leaders in pressure rate,

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Speaker 1: first in yards per attempt passing, tied for fourth in

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Speaker 1: yards per carry, all great pressure points against a Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson who was very efficient in the pocket, and a

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry led run game Baltimore terrible in the second half.

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Speaker 1: That buildes well if you want to bet a dog

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Speaker 1: at a big number. They're now giving up more than

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Speaker 1: seventeen points per game in the second half worst in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. We know bow Knicks and the Broncos will

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Speaker 1: be slinging it no matter how late in the game

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Speaker 1: and what the score is. And we know, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: Lamar is a favorite Big number twenty nine and thirty

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Speaker 1: five in his career forty five percent against the spread.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying big number three or more. The reason we

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Speaker 1: don't like denver easy schedule. Bo Nicks is a wildcard

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Speaker 1: who can just as easily throw at least one pick

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Speaker 1: six to destroy the calculus. Denver's good against the Blitz.

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Speaker 1: Lamar is the best in the NFL against the Blitz.

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Speaker 1: And there is the sentiment that the Ravens are like

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Speaker 1: two or three mistakes cleaned up from figuring it out

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Speaker 1: and destroying this team. And like, that's what I worry about.

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Speaker 1: They had a like that was a cheap back door

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Speaker 1: cover the Commanders had against the Ravens a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: If you didn't get if you got the seven and

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Speaker 1: a half, the Ravens won by seven because they gave

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Speaker 1: up some you know, a PI that put the Commanders

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Speaker 1: in field goal range. I could see that being the

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Speaker 1: case here too. Like, I'm so split on this game.

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Speaker 1: I do not want to put in the contest. I

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Speaker 1: do not feel strongly about it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's just because of bow knicks that

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Speaker 2: were both little weary, even though he is what three

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Speaker 2: and oh or four and o on the road this

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Speaker 2: season even and he's something yeah, four and oh. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, we can't knock it. The guys performed well

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Speaker 2: in the road and this team has as well, so

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Speaker 2: maybe our skepticism isn't warranted. But we just it's just

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Speaker 2: a numbers thing, right. I don't get why this number

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Speaker 2: is so large, and the books tend to know what

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Speaker 2: they're doing when they set numbers like this, but man,

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Speaker 2: this this is a tough one to pass. Unluckily we

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Speaker 2: have other games we like more. But I'm gonna bet it.

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Speaker 2: It's like the hot stove thing I got to touch

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Speaker 2: and make sure it's hot. That's how That's what I'm

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Speaker 2: doing here with this this Denver team. It's like, I know,

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Speaker 2: I know we shouldn't do it, but I kind of

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Speaker 2: have to do it, just because I'm so skeptical of this.

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Speaker 2: This secondary for this Ravens team and people out there.

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Speaker 2: You don't need to you don't need to take this one.

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Speaker 2: You can wait and do in game best. I just

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Speaker 2: laid it out for you how you should bet this right.

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Speaker 2: You should attack Denver in the second half, so you know,

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Speaker 2: if they're down ten to nothing at a halftime or

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Speaker 2: fourteen three, maybe you'll get a better number and you

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Speaker 2: can just take them to cover the second half like that.

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Speaker 2: That probably is to play for this contest, though, for

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Speaker 2: what we do here. If I'm just gonna take the

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Speaker 2: name the numbers strip from the get go, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: go against the professionals here. I'll take Denver in this

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Speaker 2: big number. It's it's just to me, it's too big.

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Speaker 2: If this was seven and a half maybe seven, I

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Speaker 2: could come around this Ravens team. The fact that it's

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Speaker 2: crossed seven and a half key number, eight and a half

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Speaker 2: key number and still at nine. I'll be the joke

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Speaker 2: public sucker. I'll take the nine.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, the Ravens in the first half has been

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Speaker 1: sort of the sharp play this week if you read

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Speaker 1: anything on Action Network, if you listen to Stucky and

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Speaker 1: Raybon on the Action Network podcast in their Sunday six

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Speaker 1: pack Stuck, he chose the Ravens first half. A couple

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Speaker 1: other stories on Action Network, they like the Ravens first half.

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Speaker 1: Evan probably has a ton of stats. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if he'll do it in his segment later about the

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Speaker 1: Ravens in first half. If not, you know, ev you

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Speaker 1: can throw it in the chat and we'll bring them

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Speaker 1: up here. But the Ravens in the first half with

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Speaker 1: Harbaugh and with Lamar have really been, you know, unprecedentedly great.

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Speaker 1: I think the number is probably about five if I

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Speaker 1: had to guess, So Ravens in the first half might

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Speaker 1: be a safer, not a safe play for the contest.

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Speaker 1: I will tell you. Normally I can make a list

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Speaker 1: of like five or six games I feel good about

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Speaker 1: that we're going to put in the contest. I could

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Speaker 1: not do that with this. Like I had two games,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, yes, I feel great by this morning. I

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Speaker 1: maybe had three, But I like didn't feel great about

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Speaker 1: a lot of games. One of the games, like I

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Speaker 1: definitely started coming around to New England plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half at Tennessee. The trends back taking the Pats

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Speaker 1: do that. Teams off off a blowout loss, who are

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Speaker 1: then favored at home, only cover forty two percent of

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Speaker 1: the time the following week. The past twenty years interesting

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Speaker 1: money and tickets both on the Pats, and this number

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Speaker 1: hasn't budge that worries me a little bit. Are we

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Speaker 1: getting Will Levis at QB seems likely? Are getting Jacoby

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Speaker 1: Brivett seems likely? But then there's this, and we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this. Hey, the Titans think like they're tanking. They've

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Speaker 1: traded away every player of value. This week it was

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Speaker 1: Deontay Johnson. I'm not I'm thinking about the Panthers, but

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Speaker 1: the Titans stink. They've traded away their best players. The

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Speaker 1: Titans just played the Lions. Teams coming off a game

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Speaker 1: against the Lions tend to creator the next game because

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Speaker 1: it is such a physical game. We just saw it

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Speaker 1: with the Vikings too. That is a hard road to

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Speaker 1: travel and then be a home favorite of more than

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Speaker 1: a field goal. That feels like an opportunity for us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked on Tuesdays is a bizarre line. We

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Speaker 2: knew it was gonna be the public dog of the

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Speaker 2: week because everyone's you know, they're they're like us, They're

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Speaker 2: looking at this saying, what in the world, what is

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Speaker 2: this number? Why is it not just two and a

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Speaker 2: half or three? You're gonna give us the hook. If

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Speaker 2: it's a trap, me and chat will walk into it

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Speaker 2: holding hands. I mean, what else can we do here?

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Speaker 2: This is too good of a number. This Tennessee team

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Speaker 2: is terrible. How can you not better the Patriots to

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Speaker 2: win this game out right? As well? It's just everything

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Speaker 2: lines up where say what you want about this Patriots

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Speaker 2: team and how bad they are. We know it. We

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Speaker 2: know how bad Brissette is. We know how bad the receivers.

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Speaker 2: I think they're leading the league and drops they had

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Speaker 2: before Jacoby Meer, I mean, h Drake ny came in.

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Speaker 2: They basically were at the thirty second in the league

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Speaker 2: and passes twenty yards downfield. It's it's bad with the Brissette,

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Speaker 2: I get it, but it's not as bad as everything

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Speaker 2: that we just talked about Tennessee, especially if it's Will Levis.

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Speaker 2: This guy just makes so many dumb mistakes and now

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Speaker 2: he knows he I mean, how can you find a

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Speaker 2: more desperate quarterback in this league? If he starts this

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Speaker 2: game right like he just he knows that he might

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Speaker 2: have one or two games left in his career. So

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Speaker 2: I'm with you on it, like I I'm with you

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Speaker 2: about the hesitation though, like we don't like that this

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Speaker 2: number hasn't budged. The books seem like they're setting something

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Speaker 2: up here, But we could say that for every week

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Speaker 2: this year, for the most part of this Tennessee team,

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Speaker 2: there's been we are talking about, there's been a bunch

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Speaker 2: of games they were favorite at home against different teams,

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Speaker 2: or the number didn't look right to mean you and

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Speaker 2: we avoided it, and that was a bad miss by us.

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Speaker 2: We shouldn't have been avoiding betting against this Tennessee team.

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Speaker 2: They've just been terrible all season. So I'm gonna do

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Speaker 2: my best not to let us get scared off by

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Speaker 2: this on Sunday if we still are getting three and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: I think it's their defense. I think people are looking

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Speaker 1: at their defense, which has performed well top ten in

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Speaker 1: many metrics, and I think it's sort of everyone keeps thinking, Okay,

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Speaker 1: their defense can do enough to stop an opposing offense.

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Speaker 1: Even if you look at last week, right, they played

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Speaker 1: the Lions fifty two points scored, but that's because of

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Speaker 1: turnovers and special teams. Jared Goff had eighty five yards

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Speaker 1: passing like the Titans had more often too production than

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Speaker 1: the Lions did, So I think they just keep thinking, Okay,

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Speaker 1: every week this team will be able to prove that

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Speaker 1: they can stop somebody. But they don't play complimentary football.

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Speaker 1: So every good play that the Titans make, every good

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Speaker 1: series the Titans have on defense gets given back and

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Speaker 1: more in a negative effect with what the offense does

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Speaker 1: and so or special teams. Now, so I get it.

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Speaker 1: I get it. It's it's a tough one. Like I

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Speaker 1: have it on my list of like final five. Me too,

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Speaker 1: but I don't love it and it makes me a

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Speaker 1: little queasy. It does feel a little trappy, but not Foxholt.

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Speaker 1: It's not our big balls Better the Week, because our

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Speaker 1: big balls Better the Week, presented by Tommy John. If

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Speaker 1: you got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great

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00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 1: games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest

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Speaker 1: Our big ball Better the Week. New Orleans at Carolina.

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Speaker 1: This one is up to seven and a half. Simon,

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Speaker 1: it was at seven, and I think it's trending at eight.

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Speaker 1: It was at seven when we spoke on two. We

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Speaker 1: liked it. Then the Saints minus seven and a half. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's it's oddly a pros Joe's game with the public

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Speaker 1: on the Panthers and the money on the Saints, and

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Speaker 1: like the money that has moved it to seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. I can't believe there are enough tickets on

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Speaker 1: this game to have any kind of credible formula at all.

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Speaker 1: It is by far the least bet game of any

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Speaker 1: NFL game, according to the number of tickets tracked in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app. I can't believe the majority of

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Speaker 1: tickets on the Panthers. But here we are. We live

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Speaker 1: in a world in which we have to choose between

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Speaker 1: the Saints and the Panthers. We've decided to cast our

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Speaker 1: lot with the Saints as more than touchdown favorites with

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Speaker 1: a on the road in the division, all bad trends

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Speaker 1: for us. YEP, a quarterback in Derek Carr who is

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Speaker 1: not just one of the worst in the NFL as

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Speaker 1: a favorite, he is one step up from last as

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Speaker 1: a favorite against the spread in the past twenty years.

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Speaker 1: He's got a coach who was amongst the worst ten

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Speaker 1: coaches against the spread in the past twenty years. But

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Speaker 1: we're doing it, and I feel.

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Speaker 2: Fine, Yeah, you left out the best part. The Saints

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Speaker 2: have lost six games in a row since starting too,

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Speaker 2: and uh, I mean, we're seeing historical stuff here.

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Speaker 1: So you know what, Yeah, this is You're right this

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Speaker 1: We slacked about it earlier and like I couldn't. I

356
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Speaker 1: was giving you a couple options, like for big balls,

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Speaker 1: and this was on the list, and you chose this one,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, yeah, this makes sense, this one takes bass.

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Speaker 2: We're finally doing it, though, I'm so happy on this show.

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Speaker 2: We're finally fading this Carolina team for our fans.

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Speaker 1: For a listener, No, we're fucked.

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Speaker 2: That's what I was about to say. This is only

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Speaker 2: going to end in one way, and it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: us losing this as in one of over five, but

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Speaker 2: we have to do it. Carolina is so bad. They've

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Speaker 2: totally put on the season on the Saints on their hand.

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Speaker 2: This feels like they're everything game right. This is where

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Speaker 2: they can maybe turn around this season. They need this

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Speaker 2: one desperately. They know if you lose this and you're

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Speaker 2: two and seven, you are done. But if you can

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Speaker 2: get to three and six, there's an outside chance. Obviously

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Speaker 2: they can somehow get to a wildcard, especially if they're

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Speaker 2: getting healthy at the right time. So the biggest thing

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Speaker 2: to us was just it. If it was Derek Carr,

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Speaker 2: I was going to be on this number just because

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Speaker 2: he is the difference maker to that team We've seen offensively,

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Speaker 2: they just they run differently when he's back there. Right,

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Speaker 2: they can run what they want to do, which is

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Speaker 2: run the ball with play action like that's what really

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Speaker 2: made them so great those first two weeks. Here comes

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Speaker 2: the Carolina team that struggles against a lot of what

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Speaker 2: the Saints want to do offensively. So I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: let this huge numer scare me off. It's this This

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Speaker 2: Panther team is that bad that this should be that high,

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Speaker 2: even though it is the Saints team. And about time, Chad,

386
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Speaker 2: About time we fade a team that is one in

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Speaker 2: what eight or one in seven against the spread this season.

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Speaker 2: So better late than never is what I always say.

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Speaker 2: So I'm happy we're finally getting this this fade the

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Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers stream.

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Speaker 1: I feel like this is historic for us. I don't

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Speaker 1: know in the history of us being brothers in arms,

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Speaker 1: we've ever faded a team in this spot. We've passed.

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Speaker 1: We've decided we wouldn't touch it because we didn't want

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Speaker 1: to tempt the betting gods and do something that is

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Speaker 1: so chalky and that. But it's not this week, but

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Speaker 1: in sort of historical terms, we don't want to bet

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Speaker 1: against this trend of a home dog. We don't want

399
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Speaker 1: to bet against this trade of the home dog in

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Speaker 1: the division. It's one of those times we're just looking

401
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 1: at the matchup. We're seeing Derek Carr, who's healthy and

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00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 1: above excuse excuse me an above average quarterback when he's healthy,

403
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 1: playing against the defense that cannot get pressure, cannot cover,

404
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 1: gets blown out by everybody. We're believing our eyes. We

405
00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 1: got a quarterback who really is as bad as we

406
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 1: think he is. This is the spot big balls better

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00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:09,920
Speaker 1: the week New Orleans Saints. Our sponsor Tommy John makes

408
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,920
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00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 1: If you love Simon or and I, if you love

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00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: dot com slash Favorites this next game. This is a

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00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 1: litmus test game to me. I've changed my mind on

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00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: this game, Dallas at Atlanta. Atlanta's a two and a

419
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,719
Speaker 1: half point favorite. I've changed my mind as often as

420
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 1: Jerry Jones threatens reporters in the past forty eight hours.

421
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 1: Betting Atlanta feels like a trap. Feels like when I

422
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,439
Speaker 1: walked into the Cincinnati bear trap last week and you

423
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: try to talk me out of it, called me a fool.

424
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: I didn't deal with it, and I got screwed. All

425
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: of Atlanta's defense has come, all of Atlanta's offense has

426
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: come by playing the Bucks twice and the Panthers. Kirk

427
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 1: Cousins literally eight touchdowns one thousand yards against the Panthers

428
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: and the Bucks, like against any defense with a decent

429
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 1: pass rush and people who can cover, They're a mediocre team.

430
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 1: So the question becomes, do the Cowboys have a decent

431
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 1: pass rush? Probably not. Micah Parsons still was not practiced.

432
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: By the sounds of it from Mike McCarthy, he wasn't

433
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,479
Speaker 1: close to getting back on the field. Cornerback Dron Bland

434
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 1: was expected to practice today. It's Thursday. We don't know

435
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 1: what's happened yet. Maybe the Cowboys we better in coverage.

436
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 1: Are they a team that has shown they have the

437
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 1: ability to respond to adversity?

438
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 3: Not?

439
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 1: Really. This is a split across the board. You know,

440
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 1: we didn't talk about it in sharp calls, Like I

441
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Cowboys on Tuesday. He kind of

442
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: talked me out of it. If this game gets to three,

443
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 1: I'd probably want to bet the Cowboys. I don't feel

444
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: good enough to put it in the contest for sure.

445
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 2: No, No, I like Atlanta. I think Cowboys are just

446
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: a bad team. You know, last week we took him

447
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: because he thought they had major injuries with the forty

448
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 2: nine ers, and we should have adjusted right when Kittle

449
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: and Debo came back, that should have been our Marke.

450
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 2: They move off it. We didn't take it seriously. What happened.

451
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: Kittle had like the game of his life, right, He

452
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: dominated that game, and he kind of flipped it. They

453
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 2: lose by six. We faded this team against Pittsburgh once again.

454
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 2: I'd make that bet ten out of ten times, especially

455
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team we've seen this year. We just got unlucky, right.

456
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: Dak drove the field on a fourth down, completed this

457
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: insane past his third receiver to beat us. Then they

458
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 2: beat the Giants, you know, and a kind of another

459
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 2: flukey win. And then they opened the season by beating Cleveland.

460
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 2: So they have three wins this season easily could have

461
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: won maybe two wins. The Cowboys are just a bad team.

462
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 2: They are so bad. That's why I can't imagine putting

463
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: money on them right now. That they got to be

464
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 2: feeling in the locker room and there's no adjustments to make.

465
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: They can't stop the run, and they can't run the football.

466
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: There's nothing they can do. Chad. They're dead in the water.

467
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 2: There is no adjustments to be made, and all the players,

468
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 2: it's just we knew coming to the season it was

469
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 2: gonna be bad for them. I didn't know it was

470
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 2: gonna be this bad for this Cowboys team. It's just

471
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 2: it's terrible. So could they steal this game? Chad? Yeah,

472
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 2: I think you nailed it. Like whoever is the Ball Last?

473
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 2: I talked about this on Tuesday. That's why I wouldn't

474
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 2: bet it either. It's like bet I did bet Atlanta,

475
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 2: I should say, but I wouldn't make this one over

476
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 2: five because it's whoever is the Ball Last? I could

477
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 2: see them winning this game, right, it's Cowboys Dak. He's

478
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: that good of a quarterback him and see that connection.

479
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 2: They could drive the field. I mean, we had the

480
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 2: opportunity to get to forty nine ers. They could have

481
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: drove the field and got It's that upset win. I

482
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 2: think that's what we're gonna have every week with this

483
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: Cowboys team. They play mediocre teams, right, and that's what

484
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 2: this Atlanta team is. We don't think they're that great

485
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: of a team. That's why we're both hesitant to take it.

486
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, there's threes out there if you do want

487
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 2: the Cowboys chat. I am on Atlanta, but it's one

488
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 2: of my smaller bets. I just I'm having a tough

489
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: time with this one, just as you just because we

490
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: don't really trust either of these teams right now for

491
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 2: a bunch of different reasons. So I'm with you. I'm

492
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: happy to pass on this one for the contest.

493
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned Dak and CD like they're not

494
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: even connecting emotionally, do you know what I mean? Like

495
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 1: it feels like there's some thing missing in what is

496
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: supposed to be a simpatico relationship between the quarterback and

497
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 1: the receiver and I know it can be tempestuous at times,

498
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 1: but like they got to be in the same page,

499
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 1: and they don't seem to be. And I do think Dak,

500
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: you know, we talked about this on Convinced Me. Kerner

501
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: talked about it, you know, referring to Dak as mal

502
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,479
Speaker 1: Santa and giving out under his rushing props he had

503
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 1: negative one rushing yard. He looks not just immobile, but

504
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,719
Speaker 1: a statuesque back there. You could see it a few times.

505
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 1: I think at one point Collins when he was rolling

506
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: out Chris Collins were said, he just looks like he

507
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: doesn't have it. Something weird is going on there. And

508
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 1: now they're giving these guys, you know, hundreds of millions

509
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: of dollars.

510
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: I'll say this though, I mean they clearly it's it's

511
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 2: just tough. It's footballs and everyone knows the ball is going.

512
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 2: But last week CD had thirteen catches on seventeen targets

513
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 2: for one hundred and forty six yards and two touchdowns,

514
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: and then the week before that he had fourteen targets.

515
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: We only had seven catches, So clearly Dak knows the deal.

516
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: Though Dak is just force feeding this guy because of

517
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: what we just talked about like he has no other

518
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 2: real options. So I agree with you. It hasn't worked out.

519
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 2: But it's just this is life when you just have

520
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 2: two players and nothing else, right, Like, there's just only

521
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 2: so much these two guys can do, and you're right,

522
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: they're both kind of cratering to the pressure.

523
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: I guess Miami at Buffalo Buffalo minus six. This was

524
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: my exact decision. Yeah, I loved it on Sunday night

525
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: when it was at six. It's bad up to six

526
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: and a half. It's come down to half point. That

527
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: worries me. You mentioned on sharp Calls there's some love

528
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: for Miami. Yeah, I like Josh Allen defies the trends.

529
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,959
Speaker 1: You know in the NFL historically betting against the spread,

530
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:16,959
Speaker 1: you want to bet on the underdog in the division.

531
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: That's not what you do with Josh Allen. Josh Allen

532
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 1: is over five hundred. He is an ROI positive bet

533
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: against the spread as a favorite in the division. And

534
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 1: then the two A trends to me outweigh what people

535
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 1: might be believing in sort of the development of the Dolphins.

536
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: Tua is two and ten straight out, three eight and

537
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: one against the spread away from home, versus winning teams

538
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: in his NFL career career, and to me, it really

539
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 1: becomes like Finns offense versus Bill's defense. Even Tua has

540
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 1: been out, you can't really sort of vest any confidence

541
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 1: in those. But the Bill's rush offense has been top

542
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: three in the league across the majority of metrics, supervisial,

543
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 1: advanced whatever, and defense tackling is amongst the league's worst.

544
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 1: So trend wise, matchup wise, I could see the Bills.

545
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: This is a place they tend to dominate. I'm still

546
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: not worried about it.

547
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 2: Nope. This is one of my bigger bets that week.

548
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: Tons of money on this Bills team. I hope, I

549
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 2: hope professionals get Bett in this. But give me a

550
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 2: five and a half, that'd be great. Yeah, I'm right

551
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: there with you. Usually I don't love these spots, but

552
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's different him and this matchup is different as well. Right,

553
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: we talked about two on the road. Now it's too

554
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 2: on the road against a team above five hundred, which

555
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: he struggles against in his career. It doesn't matter if

556
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 2: it was his best season of his career or his

557
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: worst season his career. He always struggles in this exact spot,

558
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: So you know, maybe they'll get lucky Chad, but we

559
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 2: know long term this is a winning bet. So this

560
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 2: is a bet that we're gonna make this year, We'll

561
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: make next year as long as we can until Miami

562
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 2: changes who they are, until Josh Allen falls off the cliff,

563
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 2: and he's nowhere near that cliff right now. Like this

564
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 2: is arguably the best we've ever had Josh Allen, especially

565
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 2: betting wise, Like he's just so locked in even you

566
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 2: know we knew his pick was coming last week. He

567
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 2: was so due. He's had incredible luck this season. That

568
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 2: doesn't worry me at all. He could overcome two turnovers

569
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 2: in this matchup, just because I think we're gonna get

570
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 2: opportunities with Tua. He just does not look comfortable. He's

571
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: still doing the one to two Mississippi in his head

572
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 2: and then getting rid of the ball because he's just

573
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 2: so terrified to take a hit right now, So I

574
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 2: love it. We got we got a Billston that's playing free.

575
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 2: Josh Allen is really embracing the whole thing of there

576
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 2: is no superstar in this team. I can get the

577
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: ball to whoever I want, and end of the day,

578
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: no one's gonna be bitching at me, and he's just

579
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 2: he looks a completely different guy, like a weight is

580
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: truly off his shoulders. So yeah, Bill's at home six

581
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: points or maybe even five and a half for our contest, Chad,

582
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: I love this to be one of our five.

583
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: Josh Allen right now odds on favorite to win in

584
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,239
Speaker 1: the he in the NFL, that's fair. Who knows. Like

585
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: the way this team is playing, I'm still banking on

586
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: Jared Goff, but could end up being Josh Allen.

587
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chad knows, But don't get mad at Chad. Chad knows.

588
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 2: If we flipped Jared Goff and Josh Allen, we know

589
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: who the better quarterback is. It's just, you know, MVP,

590
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 2: Like we always say, it's it's really about that one seed.

591
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: So I still think there is value on your golf,

592
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 2: Beck because he could easily be the one seed. And

593
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 2: you know, it's as good as the Bills have been.

594
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 2: You know, it is tough to get that one seed,

595
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: but they do have the division to do it. And

596
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 2: so that to me is the biggest, the biggest thing.

597
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: Who's gonna win this MVP is gonna be Who's gonna

598
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 2: be that one seed.

599
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: Chad Well, honestly, that's why I made the bet, Simon, Like,

600
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: I just looked at you know, gaming it out. We

601
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,479
Speaker 1: know it's a quarterback award, Yeah, we know. It usually

602
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: goes to the quarterback whose team played the best over

603
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: the course of the season in a mostly dominant way.

604
00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 1: They'll lose two games at the most, maybe three, and

605
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: the Bills had already lost a couple of games, and

606
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: the Bills have to overtake the Chiefs who are undefeated.

607
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 1: So to me, this just felt like, you know, if

608
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: I'm handicapping, which is what this is, what's going to

609
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 1: be capping that over the course of the season, the

610
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: Lions would have a better chance to win their conference,

611
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: then have a better record with Jared Goff, and there'd

612
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 1: be sentiment like he'd have a great year, he's overcome

613
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 1: so much. There'd just be people who want to back them.

614
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 2: You know.

615
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: Sometimes this is about a story Los Angeles Chargers now

616
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: minus one and a half at Cleveland. You brought it

617
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: up on Sharp Calls. Yeah, listen, man, I'm like, I've

618
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: dug so deep in this one. And this this is

619
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 1: when betting gets fun, because I do feel like people

620
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: are not giving enough credit to the Chargers, or they

621
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: are giving Jamis and the Browns too much credit. They

622
00:31:56,160 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: are literally banking on Jamis and this offense being so

623
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: much better than it was with DeShawn and everyone getting

624
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: healthier on offense and defense. So they are reevaluating and

625
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: rerating the Browns. But I do look at the Chargers

626
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: d as a comp to the Ravens, who the Browns

627
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: just beat miraculously. Right, the Chargers are much better in coverage,

628
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: much better in passing EPA, expected points allowed equal in sack, right,

629
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: better against the run in the box with six or

630
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: fewer defenders. They've actually started passing the boar passing the

631
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: ball more the past couple of weeks, which means they

632
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 1: are putting the ball in their best players hands, justin Herbert,

633
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: who is not a turnover machine the way Jamis is.

634
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's a real edge here. It's

635
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: about what we think we are seeing, and we're either

636
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 1: jumping off the wave of the Browns or we're going

637
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: to keep writing it with Jamis, And like, are we

638
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 1: taking a stand here that we just don't believe Jamis

639
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: won't throw the ball into coverage and turn the ball

640
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: over the way he should have against the Ravens if

641
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: anyone in their defensive backfield could catch the ball.

642
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm gonna sucker. I'm gonna ride it,

643
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna do the coward move though, like I

644
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: probably won't pust in our contests because I'm just gonna

645
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 2: throw this in a teaser. Give me up to seven

646
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 2: and a half with this Cleveland team, because you said

647
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: a lot of nice things by the Chargers. I don't

648
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 2: think the Chargers are a good team. I think they've

649
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 2: just benefited from having a really easy schedule. And this

650
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: is what this team does, right. We talked to Harby identity,

651
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: they just they don't beat themselves. They let these other

652
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 2: teams make the mistakes. And even watching that Saints game,

653
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: like you know, I don't know if it was the

654
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 2: first quarter, maybe into the second quarter, it was like,

655
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 2: how is the Saint team even keeping this close? They

656
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 2: hadn't they have a rotating door of rookie Qbs right

657
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 2: now at quarterback and Herbert was keeping him in it.

658
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 2: And then eventually, like we talked about, Herbert realized, oh,

659
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: I'm a top five quarterback in this league. I can

660
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 2: make these throws. I just need to trust my guy,

661
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: and he made big time I'm throws in that game.

662
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: So I get why you want to take the Chargers.

663
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 2: They're They're probably the more complete team. But I can't

664
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: quit this Browns team, especially knowing how desperate they are.

665
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 2: Just the whole mood and momentum is shifted in this

666
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 2: locker room now that it is Jamis. That's why I'm

667
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 2: like Chad talking about I'm taking the teaser though, just

668
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 2: because of Jamis, Like it's I I just can't get

669
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: it over the Coyle Hamilton drop, Like that's what we're

670
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: gonna get from Jamis in this game. So that's why

671
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:27,959
Speaker 2: I don't want to make this one of our five.

672
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 2: But for the people out there, I am going to

673
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: make this a teaser bet with this team. You know,

674
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 2: you compare them with the Eagles, you compare it with

675
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 2: the Bengals, wherever you want to throw it in the

676
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 2: other side. But I just look at this as a

677
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 2: nice leg to a getting them up to seven a half,

678
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 2: just because we've seen this Chargers team, right, they like

679
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: to keep these games close, especially against teams that are

680
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 2: kind of at the same level as they are. And

681
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 2: you know, this Brown's defense at home. I know they're

682
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 2: not the same as they were last year. They're still

683
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 2: pretty damn good overall, and they could still get after

684
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 2: the quarterback. I think that that to me is where

685
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 2: I'm flipped a little bit. So, yeah, I guess we

686
00:34:59,080 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 2: disagree on this one.

687
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: Brother, dude, it's so hard, like it feels trappy to

688
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 1: bet the Chargers as the road favorite. You're going against

689
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: what the sharps are saying. We've seen the number come.

690
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 2: Down three and a half. Now it's down to one

691
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 2: and a half.

692
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so I don't know if it keeps going down,

693
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 1: at some point, we might have to bet the Chargers

694
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 1: as an underdog. And I don't know. I don't mind

695
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,479
Speaker 1: doing that. I just it just something here feels off

696
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 1: like Jamis is not a good bet.

697
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: He's just not. How dare you?

698
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: It's it's just like people are.

699
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 2: Right, Evan, He's good as an underdog, not as a favorite.

700
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 1: Just feels like we're missing an opportunity here. We don't

701
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: have a Foxhall yet. We don't have a Foxhole. I'm

702
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: telling you right now, Washington and New York Giants, I'm

703
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: glad the wise guys sort of walk you off from

704
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: this because it was silliness, Like, I know you want

705
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 1: to back the Giants. I was again on Tuesday. I

706
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 1: think they are a dreadful team. They are a dreadful

707
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 1: team at home. They now lost Andrew Thomas, who was

708
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: the only reason to even give any hope to this team.

709
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: Tyrone Tracy, who's been their best offensive weapon. He's probably

710
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: not playing because of concussion. Daniel Jones can't throw a

711
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:20,479
Speaker 1: touchdown at met Life. There's severe turmoil in that locker

712
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: room with Daniel Jones taking the heat for going after

713
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 1: players and day Ball not defending him. It's got the

714
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: New York Post into goddamn tizzy, Like I don't think

715
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: there's any The wise guys are right here. You take

716
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: Washington and you don't take anybody.

717
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: I guess I'm a sucker. I'm a sucker for paint.

718
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 2: I'm they can't tuck me off it. I'm dugging on

719
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 2: the Giants. But this is the game I have not

720
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 2: made a single bet on because of what Chad has

721
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 2: talked about. Like, I don't know what the injuries are

722
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 2: right now. This number is only gonna go up, like

723
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: it's it's three and a half in a couple of books.

724
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:56,879
Speaker 2: I'm seeing four now at a couple of books pop

725
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: up as well, so it's like, okay, when is it

726
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 2: I mentually up to four and a half, Like that's

727
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,720
Speaker 2: when I'll come in on the other side. But everything

728
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: you said is right. This team is terrible right now.

729
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: They're dysfunctional and they're just brutal at home. Like Daniel

730
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 2: Jones at home. I don't know what it is, but

731
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 2: he is horrible playing against teams at home. And you know,

732
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 2: like you said, there's just nothing to want to build

733
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 2: off of that. Like even last week at Pittsburgh game,

734
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 2: it was right there for them to get the cover

735
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: and everything like that, and they just don't do it.

736
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 2: They've been that way this whole season. They just disappointed

737
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 2: in so many different ways.

738
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: So Pittsburgh the Bengals, Like, yeah, it's such a shame.

739
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: They're wasting a great year from their defense. And there

740
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 1: were pretty low expectations for their defense before the season began,

741
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: and I feel like their defense has really been incredible,

742
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: great defensive line, they've been really good in coverage, much

743
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: better than expected. It's a shame they can't figure it out.

744
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 2: And like, I hate your Chargers, Bet I'd rather sweat

745
00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: the Chargers and sweat the Giants, which I think a

746
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 2: day is what I'm getting to with our contest, which

747
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 2: is like, am I gonna be able to sleep at

748
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 2: night knowing I gave out the Giants in our contest

749
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 2: to our lovely fans. I wouldn't because I just wouldn't

750
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:10,760
Speaker 2: feel terrible because they.

751
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 1: Are, especially when we're giving out the Saints a seven

752
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite on the road.

753
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 2: I mean, we love Chalk this week, I'll be honest. So, yeah,

754
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 2: I'm cool with miss not taking this one in there,

755
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: just because I'm going to force in that Packers bet,

756
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: which is not the same obviously in any way. But

757
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, at least you're giving me a home

758
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: to ugly home divisional dog that I love and doesn't

759
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 2: need to be this one. It can. I'm easily gonna

760
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 2: be the Green Bay instead.

761
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 1: We're gonna get to Green Bay in a second, and

762
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: we still owe people of foxhol and we're kind of

763
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: running out of room here. We'll quickly go over the

764
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 1: Bears like I would steal back the Bears.

765
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 2: You're a sucker though you were sucked in on that

766
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 2: on Tuesday.

767
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, but I've I've changed my tune a

768
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: little bit. Like you were with me. You recognize as

769
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: dogs of the right side, but you couldn't get yourself

770
00:38:58,880 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 1: the time.

771
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 2: I said I would just stay away from it, and

772
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 2: then they flipped.

773
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: Through the dog. I'm going to get there. I'm going

774
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 1: to give you the like I'm going to give you

775
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: the out. You don't want to bet them because the

776
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: fallout which I get.

777
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 2: Please don't make me bet this team.

778
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: And it has not been pretty. Braxton Jones, their left tackle,

779
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 1: like Kayleb Williams, was running for his life after he

780
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: left the game. He is probably out. He did not

781
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: practice on Wednesday. Hit his backup who was so bad

782
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: Kayleb Williams basically couldn't get a pass off. He is

783
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: likely out. So they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

784
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: Montes Sweat did not practice on Wednesday either. I think

785
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 1: he'll play, but they're also missing multiple defensive backs. The

786
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,800
Speaker 1: Car's defense is truly terrible, but what's interesting to me

787
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: is the bare strength at full force is their ability

788
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:52,280
Speaker 1: to rush the passer and pass coverage. The cards strength

789
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 1: offensively is Kyler in pure chaos. So the worst at

790
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 1: his for him when the defense is good and getting

791
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 1: to him the better he plays. All that makes me

792
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: not want to bet the Bears anymore. Also, I agree

793
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: with you like reading it this week, obsessing about it,

794
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: like there is a lot of disappointment in the Bear's

795
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 1: locker room in how eber Flus not only handled the

796
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 1: Hail Mary strategically, the lack of coaching that happened in

797
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 1: the moment, and how he responded to reporters after the game,

798
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 1: where I think a lot of folks felt like he

799
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: threw the players under the bus and said they know

800
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 1: what to do, they didn't do it like you box

801
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 1: out you mark a man. I think that was not

802
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: taken kindly. And the fact that they gave the ball

803
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:47,359
Speaker 1: to a backup center at the goal line instead of

804
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 1: just you know, running it as they should with two

805
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 1: minutes left and fumbled it away and put them all

806
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 1: under a much different kind of strain. So to me,

807
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 1: we're walking away from this game. I will not invest.

808
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 2: Based off what you said too. Like I already liked

809
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 2: the under in this matchup, it makes me like it

810
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 2: even more now because you just said it. How are

811
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 2: the Bears going to move the ball offensively, and we've

812
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 2: seen them struggle this year. Caleb, especially on the road

813
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 2: this season. He's just been different his home and waste

814
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 2: butits are very, very different. So that that jumps out

815
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 2: to me. On the flip side too, I still think Eve,

816
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 2: one of your guys injuries, you're a really good secondary.

817
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,320
Speaker 2: So I think Kyler, as good as he is in

818
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: scramble mode, they're not going to make it easy for him.

819
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna have that many big plays.

820
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 2: So yeah, if you don't want to take a side

821
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 2: in this one, I do like the under here forty

822
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:30,760
Speaker 2: four and a half.

823
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: There will not be a side in this one. We

824
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: haven't done Foxhall yet and I don't know I got.

825
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 2: One coming up if you if you want to talk

826
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: about it, all.

827
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 1: Right, I do want to talk about it because in

828
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: my list, I don't know that any of these would

829
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 1: be it. We like the Rams at one and a

830
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: half point interesting. Yeah, wow, you are going hardcore on

831
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 1: this team because we liked him at one and a

832
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 1: half just because the.

833
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:54,800
Speaker 2: Professionals on another side, So I like that. I like

834
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 2: that it's we're going against the pros here in this one.

835
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: So we liked it at one and a half on

836
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 1: Sunday Night. Rams is underdogs. It's flipped. We don't love

837
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 1: betting on the team that it flipped towards, So now

838
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: the Rams are the favorite. That is a bad spot

839
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 1: historically true, like the Seahawks have played terrible against the

840
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 1: run this season, but like top ten in total yards allowed,

841
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: top top ten in yards per carry aloud, top ten

842
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 1: in EPA against the run. Everybody, like we know Sean

843
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:31,399
Speaker 1: McVay is a run first coach and Kyrin Williams has

844
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,879
Speaker 1: been carrying the ball as a top five running back

845
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The question is man the road dog

846
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 1: in this spot fifty four percent against the spread the

847
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: past five seasons. That's great since we've already bet the

848
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 1: Rams at plus one and a half, you know, the

849
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: home dog fifty one percent, So not like advantageous for

850
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: Seattle in this spot. But I don't love like that

851
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: we're betting against the flip and that like maybe that's

852
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: I should discount that. But dude, like I've learned one

853
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,399
Speaker 1: person say they like the Rams his favorites in this game,

854
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 1: Like that is if we're doing that, that is legit, Foxhall.

855
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 2: It is and I think it's Evan had a great

856
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: piece of article about it. It's McVeigh off extended Russ.

857
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 2: He's actually not been that good in his career, and

858
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:31,439
Speaker 2: same goes for Stafford. So I get the hesitation, right,

859
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 2: This is to me are even though we have a

860
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 2: couple of really public bets this week, this is the

861
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 2: most public bet, like the Seattle couldn't be any lower

862
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 2: right now. They are just a bad team, and that's

863
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 2: my biggest thing. Your chie, They're a bad team. They're

864
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 2: bad against good teams. And you know Gina Smith in

865
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 2: his career, he's only three and nine against the spread

866
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 2: at home in Seattle. Like he's not performed well at

867
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: all in Seattle. And people think it's different because my

868
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 2: whole life, I mean my whole betting life, Seattle at home,

869
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 2: especially with Russell Wilson, no brainer, easy bet, especially if

870
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: they were an underdog. It's not been the same with

871
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 2: Gino and they're just that that whole Peak Carroll identity

872
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 2: is totally gone now. So I think the people need

873
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 2: to adjust, the books need to adjust this line. If

874
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,319
Speaker 2: it was to Chad, I probably would stay away from

875
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 2: because you know how I obsessed with that key number.

876
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: I think the value shifted back now to this Rams team,

877
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: and I know we both got it plus one and

878
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 2: a half. I got pennies down on that. Like my

879
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,280
Speaker 2: real big money bets that I bet on this Rams

880
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 2: team have all come and minus one, minus one and

881
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 2: a half. So yeah, I just think the books haven't

882
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: adjusted to Puka and Cooper Cup being back and how

883
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 2: that's going to boost this run game in so many

884
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 2: different ways. I mean, you saw it last week, Puka

885
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: blocking He is so good because he's huge. I mean,

886
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 2: this is a huge receiver on the outside who just

887
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 2: can bully these small corners. So I just think both

888
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 2: those guys add so much to the passing game and

889
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 2: the rushing game. But yeah, this is this is definitely

890
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 2: an island game for us, But this is us in

891
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 2: the public like the professionals are on the other side.

892
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 2: So to me, this is why I like making this

893
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 2: one of their Foxholt bets, because it really is us

894
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 2: jumping in against these pros here.

895
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 1: You know what, I'm glad to hear you say this

896
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 1: because I haven't seen anything to make me not like

897
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: the Rams other than the trends. I actually really like

898
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: their young defense. I love the Rams as an organization.

899
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,240
Speaker 1: I think they draft well. I think mcveigh's a great coach.

900
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 1: I think less Sneed has done an incredible job bringing

901
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 1: talent and getting rid of guys at peak, you know,

902
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: like the old Cowboys used to do. And I'm not

903
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: afraid of it. We're in the foxhol We're on the Rams.

904
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 1: We are against everybody on this We are truly in

905
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: a foxhill on this one. This is a huge, huge

906
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 1: wise excuse me, it's a choking me up, a huge,

907
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: huge wise guy play. All Right, we're in the foxhil

908
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 1: La Rams minus one and a half. I don't want

909
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:02,320
Speaker 1: this to make us beholden to put them in the contest.

910
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 1: That makes me a little nervous. But we're in the foxhall.

911
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,919
Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the fox hole.

912
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,879
Speaker 2: Okay. And now I have other favorites I like more.

913
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 2: I just I really love this RAMS team, and this,

914
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 2: to me is such a good spot. We're still I

915
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: feel like getting good value on them, just because the

916
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 2: books haven't adjusted to what they are now, which is

917
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 2: a healthier team.

918
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: Detroit at green Bay, green Bay three and a half.

919
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 1: This was Simon says. I will say this is the

920
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: game I've bet the most done this week. I've enjoyed

921
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 1: getting the money down at three and a half. It's

922
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,479
Speaker 1: been getting closer and closer to three. Nothing I've seen

923
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: changes me my mind from putting use in the contest

924
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 1: total pro Joe split. The packerds pass blocking is elite

925
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 1: this season. So how will the Lions get any pressure?

926
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: I think that's still a real hole for them without

927
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: Aden Hutchinson. Whether it could be a factor. Wind is

928
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:59,240
Speaker 1: in the ten to fifteen mile per hour range.

929
00:46:58,080 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 2: Jared Goff has a bad.

930
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 1: Ankle, potentially rain. We're gonna get to golf. Matt Lafleur

931
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 1: twenty four and eleven as a dog sixty nine percent

932
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: in his career. We're selling peak Lions. I don't mind

933
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 1: getting off the Lions. They've been so good to us.

934
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 1: Like Jared Goff outside in weather, he's generationally great inside

935
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 1: outside not so much. And so this is the time

936
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 1: that you gotta go all in on the Packers here.

937
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just the you can say what you want,

938
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 2: right with Jordan Love being banged up, but we I

939
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: just talked about it. Golf is banked up as well.

940
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 2: He didn't practice yesterday. He's got a bad ankle and

941
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 2: you know, this is the type of matchup where, yes,

942
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 2: is it scary betting against this Detroit team for me

943
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: and Chad, of course, we've just seen them just dominate

944
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: everyone they've faced. But we talk all the time divisional

945
00:47:57,640 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: games are different and that's when you really have to

946
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 2: just trust the number. And you know, they remember what

947
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:04,879
Speaker 2: was it two three weeks ago they tried scaring off.

948
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 2: We thought the Detroit number was way too easy against

949
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 2: that Vikings team. What was it two and a half

950
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 2: down to one and a half? Yeah, line didn't make sense.

951
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 2: All of a sudden, it came down to you know,

952
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: Minnesota had the ball, they were about to go up

953
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 2: three with an extra going for two, and at one

954
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 2: point it was landed right on one and it was like, okay,

955
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 2: either we're gonna get lucky with the cover here or

956
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 2: we're gonna get this outright win by this Lion's team.

957
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 2: And it feels the same way here with green Bay

958
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 2: where we're getting a great number with the hook on

959
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 2: the three and a half, and we both believe green

960
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 2: Bay can easily win this game. Like they are a

961
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 2: good team, they're so well coached. You know, this field's

962
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 2: gonna be extra wet, They're gonna water this field right

963
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 2: before tip off. And I just love this Green Bay

964
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:47,359
Speaker 2: team with this matchup. It was just like last week,

965
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 2: like I played the number against Green Bay because I

966
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 2: thought they were going to look ahead spot that they

967
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,879
Speaker 2: were gonna kind of play down to their competition. This

968
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,879
Speaker 2: is they know this is basically for their season. Same

969
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 2: thing as we were back to Colts last week against Houston.

970
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 2: Like you get these divisional teams and these kind of

971
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 2: matchups where you put the human element to it of

972
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 2: these guys know like they know they need this for

973
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 2: the division. There is an extra oomph to that, the

974
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 2: extra effort, extra motivation, these type of spots. So you

975
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 2: know I'd grab like I said on Tuesday, I grab

976
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 2: it now people. I do think once everything is clear

977
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 2: with Jordan Love, this does go down to three and

978
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 2: it stays there. Yeah, kickoff. It just feels like the

979
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 2: professional side where the public is going to come in

980
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 2: so heavy on Thetroit Detroit team, where they don't realize

981
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 2: this is this is where you want to hop off

982
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 2: for this week. So I don't say this, I'm not

983
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 2: saying this is a scheduled loss, but there are kind

984
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 2: of games like that, right. We always talk about teams

985
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 2: aren't going to just lose one or two games in

986
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 2: the entire season. That's those are really rare outliers. Those

987
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 2: teams are you know, either being extremely lucky or like

988
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 2: the you know, nineteen to oh Patriot team, that's just

989
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 2: the most dominant team we've ever seen put it together.

990
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 2: So respect to Detroit, we think they're a great team,

991
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: but this is such a spot for this Green Bay team.

992
00:49:57,960 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of the games when I bet

993
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,479
Speaker 1: you're go off to be MVP. I expected him to lose, right,

994
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: you know, like he's banged up, it's outside. It's just

995
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 1: sort of he won't play another game outside the rest

996
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: of the year unless you count the Cowboys.

997
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 2: You know, when he's going to soldier field.

998
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: Oh, he's got to go to a soldier field other

999
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: than that, like outside against the Cowboys. If the if

1000
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: the roof is open, but doesn't really count. All right,

1001
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: last game to discuss indy five and a half at Minnesota. Yeah,

1002
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is starting now.

1003
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 2: Joe.

1004
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,919
Speaker 1: It's been really interesting, like since this was announced forty

1005
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 1: eight hours ago, the analysis about Anthony Richardson across the punditry,

1006
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: social media, you know, column inches spilled on internet machines.

1007
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 1: It's been fascinating, like so many people sort of decrying

1008
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 1: the idea that completion percentage is how you should be

1009
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 1: judging Anthony Richardson and then looking deeper and looking at

1010
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,400
Speaker 1: the choices he makes when he doesn't complete a pass

1011
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 1: and the leverage position that he is putting his team

1012
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 1: in positively and the net ROI if he completes a

1013
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:18,959
Speaker 1: downfield pass, and really great and interesting analysis that makes

1014
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,360
Speaker 1: completion percentage not a great way to measure his development

1015
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 1: because it's terrible like the past twenty five years. I

1016
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,359
Speaker 1: think Akille Smith as the only guy with a worse

1017
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: completion percentage. But Joe Flacco, despite like the brilliance we

1018
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 1: think he brings, and you know he's not exactly is

1019
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:41,840
Speaker 1: he likes to say elite? No, So are the Colts

1020
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 1: better off short and long term? As an unabashed Richardson backer,

1021
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 1: where do you stand on this?

1022
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 2: I hate it? Like this is why I always say

1023
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 2: these teams you can just be so screwed if you

1024
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: have the wrong owner. And this to me is an

1025
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 2: owner move, and we talk all the time in life,

1026
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 2: you never want to make a decision out of anger.

1027
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 2: And this was to me a decision made out of anger,

1028
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,800
Speaker 2: because if it was logic, the logical move would have

1029
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 2: been do this a week ago against Houston, like that

1030
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 2: would have made more sense. Okay, the coaches make this

1031
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 2: change here because they want to see they can beat

1032
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 2: Houston here and steal this division. They didn't. And you

1033
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 2: know when they interviewed Change Styke and it seemed like

1034
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 2: even he was kind of alluding to, Yeah, this ain't me.

1035
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 2: This is the owner making this decision here. So I

1036
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 2: feel bad for Colts fans, like Joe Flacco is not

1037
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 2: they know this. He's not getting in the Promised Land.

1038
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 2: Is he really gonna beat Mahomes in the playoffs. He's

1039
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 2: really gonna beat Lamar or Josh Allen in the playoffs? No,

1040
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 2: he lost to cg as a rookie last year in Houston.

1041
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 2: So I don't get it, Like to me, you need

1042
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 2: you just needed Anthony Richard and get the reps, like

1043
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,839
Speaker 2: you know, in a sick world, Daniel Daniel Jones over

1044
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: here gets seventy one starts in the NFL. This kid

1045
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 2: only gets nine or ten. And it's just I hate

1046
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 2: that kind of stuff like this kid has so much potential.

1047
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 2: We all knew it was gonna be rough, right, We

1048
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:05,879
Speaker 2: knew coming out of college this kid was just raw

1049
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 2: talent and he had a great deep ball, but he

1050
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 2: couldn't complete a ten yard pass. It's continued, and I

1051
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 2: get why they're pissed off about, especially ownership, but it's

1052
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: like that's how you have him take the reps, Like

1053
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 2: he needs these reps to kind of figure that stuff

1054
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 2: out and then work on that stuff in the off season.

1055
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 2: So bizarre move, but for our job's sake. Like I

1056
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 2: wanted to be on the Vikings because I thought Flores

1057
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 2: would have a huge mismatch against Anthony Richardson. That's out

1058
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,879
Speaker 2: the window now Flaco Flacca donet seen at all. So yeah,

1059
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 2: the value to me shifts to this Colts team, and

1060
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 2: the number to me hasn't moved enough. It's gone down

1061
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:41,919
Speaker 2: from six to five. Now, yeah, I got this number four,

1062
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 2: So right now I have a point of value on

1063
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:45,280
Speaker 2: the Colts. So I would take this on the Colts,

1064
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 2: but I don't know what to do with it. Like

1065
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 2: I can't imagine what the vibes are like in the

1066
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 2: locker room after this type of move, where even the

1067
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,920
Speaker 2: quarterbacks said, you know, he didn't really have much to

1068
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 2: say about it from this coach, and you know, Pittman

1069
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 2: the wire you were saying he found out via social media. Like,

1070
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 2: it just seems very dysfunctional with this Colts team. So

1071
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:06,760
Speaker 2: I'm happy to avoid this one, especially for our contest.

1072
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 2: But man, just a strange move for this Colts team.

1073
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 2: I don't get what the end goal is. It's to

1074
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 2: get a wild card and that's that. Like, No, you

1075
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 2: want to be setting yourself up for five ten years

1076
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 2: down the road, not this deposite situation.

1077
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, just sad.

1078
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 2: I feel bad for the Colts.

1079
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: I do too, And I love Shane Steike and you know,

1080
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 1: I think he's great. Yeah, I think he would have

1081
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:32,240
Speaker 1: done wonder to continue to develop Anthony Richardson. Maybe that happens.

1082
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 1: I don't understand the move. I agree with you, like

1083
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 1: I actually didn't rush to bet the Colts when the

1084
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:42,919
Speaker 1: move was announced, even though the number ticked down from

1085
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,439
Speaker 1: six to five and a half immediately. I do think

1086
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 1: that's where the value is. But I still think there's

1087
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 1: something intangible that can't be addressed here that makes me

1088
00:54:57,200 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: nervous about betting the Colts, especially against a Vikings team

1089
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:05,279
Speaker 1: that knows it needs it. Can't lose three in a row.

1090
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,800
Speaker 1: It needs a big game, So I agree with you,

1091
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 1: but the Colts live.

1092
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 2: Then we talked about the script. Vikings has been incredible

1093
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,439
Speaker 2: this season. If they're up ten to nothing, go bet

1094
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 2: the Colts live.

1095
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 1: Right the car because you get the Vikings in the

1096
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: second half. They're a different team, different team, you get

1097
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,400
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold, unscripted, different conversation.

1098
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 2: YEP.

1099
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 1: Boosted underdog money line parlay time. Each week we give

1100
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: out a two team money line underdog parlay. Bet three

1101
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 1: sixty five boost the odds and highlights it on their

1102
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 1: site all weekend under both team game pages. And remember

1103
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,320
Speaker 1: both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early

1104
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: payout promo, where your money line pick it's marked as

1105
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:46,840
Speaker 1: a win if they take a seventeen point lead, even

1106
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 1: if they lose. If you want to bet this bettered

1107
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay is

1108
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots and no surprise, Green Bay Packers.

1109
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: Find the boost under either Patriots or Packers game pages.

1110
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:07,840
Speaker 1: I'm dead three six five signing our money line underdog

1111
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: round Robin. There will come up, Hey, day. Hallelu yo

1112
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:15,400
Speaker 1: wata pay day.

1113
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:16,800
Speaker 2: There will come.

1114
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 1: Up pay day some day.

1115
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,320
Speaker 3: Some day there will come up heayday.

1116
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 1: Halla lou yo waa. Pay day will come up pay

1117
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:30,080
Speaker 1: day some day. I think we'll have the Pats in there, correct,

1118
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: I think we'll have the Packers in there.

1119
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 2: Yep. And I'm tempted by it. I know you say

1120
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 2: you can't see the Vikings losing three in a row,

1121
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 2: but crazy things have happened, right, And you're getting plus

1122
00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 2: twenty eighty five right now in the Colts. I feel

1123
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 2: like that's pretty good value.

1124
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:46,280
Speaker 1: I don't mind that. I don't mind the Colts, the Packers,

1125
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 1: the Pats. I think we had in there, the Browns.

1126
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 2: Browns are plus one hundreds, so yeah, I think we

1127
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 2: can get them in there.

1128
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: I don't mind that Browns, and then we need one more.

1129
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I hate them. I know I just should

1130
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 2: on them, and I'm in Atlanta, but only have to

1131
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 2: do the Cowboys like that's a coin flip game. Those

1132
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:07,359
Speaker 2: are the type of underdogs we take.

1133
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, it was actually Cowboys or Seattle. That's fair,

1134
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 1: But I I don't want to jinks are No, don't

1135
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: do it. I don't want to bring a grenade into

1136
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 1: our own foxhole and do it to me, you know,

1137
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 1: so Underdog, money Line, Round, Robin Parlay, Colts, Packers, Pat's, Browns, Cowboys.

1138
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 1: Give me your biggest bets right now.

1139
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 2: Definitely Green Bay, Rams, you know, Bills, those three off

1140
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 2: the top, and then secondary I'll probably go Saints, Patriots,

1141
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 2: and then I know it's sickening, but I'm gona end

1142
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 2: up on the Giants pretty heavy. So for my three

1143
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 2: biggest ones, definitely Packers, Rams, and the Bills. I know

1144
00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 2: a little chalky this week, people, but that's just how

1145
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 2: it is.

1146
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 1: I really can't believe you're going to be that aggressive

1147
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:55,840
Speaker 1: on the Giant.

1148
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 2: I know, I'm sick. Oh, it's just at will point,

1149
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 2: this number moved too much. That's the issue. This number

1150
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 2: here's I think it should be three. It's all up

1151
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:04,480
Speaker 2: to four and out, Chad. This is this is the

1152
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 2: life of a sad man.

1153
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 1: Give me your scoot Roulette.

1154
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

1155
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 2: Let's play scoot Rolette. Scout Roulette six and two in

1156
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 2: the season, people, we stay hot. I want to steal

1157
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 2: Chad's pick a Green Bay so bad because I know

1158
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 2: that's probably what he wants to do. But I'm gonna

1159
00:58:27,640 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 2: give my guy a lay up. I'll let him take

1160
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 2: Green Bay. I'll take the Buffalo bills minus six.

1161
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are a gift because I actually

1162
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 1: wanted to choose. I was gonna do Green Bay or Buffalo,

1163
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 1: and I know I knew you were going to do

1164
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 1: one or the other. Yeah, so I was ready for both.

1165
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 1: I would have taken both.

1166
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 2: But you know what, green Bay is a great one.

1167
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 1: You're You're a gift you give every day to me.

1168
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: All right, sign to bring in our director of research,

1169
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 1: e any It's good.

1170
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 2: Smarter final word.

1171
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 1: Let's get a little bit smarter of it. Make us

1172
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 1: feel good. Also give us those Harbaugh Lamar Jackson first

1173
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 1: half stats. The last word with Evan Abrams.

1174
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 3: We're finished talking as the tony reality of this show.

1175
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 3: Let me clean up two things and then let me

1176
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 3: go into exactly what we're talking about here. You guys

1177
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 3: are talking about Richardson. So I just quickly looked this up.

1178
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 3: So Richardson has twenty three starts combined college and pros.

1179
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 3: Strout already has twenty five in the pros. So if

1180
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 3: you want to make a comparison there, Richardson just needs

1181
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 3: more time. But also he threw twenty four touchdown passes

1182
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 3: in his college career. That was the fewest by any

1183
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:30,360
Speaker 3: first round quarterbacks in two thousand and one. His completion

1184
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 3: percentage of fifty four percent was the lowest by a

1185
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:35,640
Speaker 3: first round quarterback since Jake Locker in twenty eleven. Let's

1186
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 3: all just not assume this wasn't a shock. We kind

1187
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 3: of knew this walking in, so it is what it is.

1188
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:43,080
Speaker 3: Let's move on there. Baltimore first half to answer your question,

1189
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 3: So that is first half is up to six for Baltimore.

1190
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:49,040
Speaker 3: Now two hundred and sixty two quarterbacks last twenty years.

1191
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 3: Number one and first have ATS is Lamar number two Flaco,

1192
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 3: So Harbaugh, that's doing great. That he's fifty nine percent

1193
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 3: first half of ATS, best of many head coach. So

1194
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 3: that's that's the stuff out of the way. Let me

1195
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 3: talk about a few picks she does like here. So

1196
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:06,439
Speaker 3: let's start with Buffalo. So when I'm doing a little

1197
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:08,760
Speaker 3: bit of research, I wanted to try and pinpoint where

1198
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 3: Josh Allen might have the opportunity to blow out his opponents.

1199
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 3: Since we talk about that stat of his wins and

1200
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:16,920
Speaker 3: winning by a large margin. So who knows what we're

1201
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 3: going to actually be getting out of the Dolphins offense

1202
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 3: because we've talked about this two and not two of

1203
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 3: the numbers are just kind of jumbled. What we do

1204
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:25,720
Speaker 3: know is more predictable is their defense. So they're allowing

1205
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:28,040
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty three yards per game on the ground,

1206
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 3: which is middle of the pack in the NFL. But

1207
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 3: when Josh Allen faces, defense is allowing one hundred and

1208
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 3: twenty plus. Where Allen is favored, he is twenty eight

1209
01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 3: and three straight up, winning by fourteen point eight points

1210
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 3: per game. He is eighteen eleven and two against the spread,

1211
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:43,400
Speaker 3: covering by seven points per game.

1212
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 1: So seems like, you know what, I feel so good

1213
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: about that because what is the stat that I pinpointed?

1214
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 1: I pinpointed the Dolphins rush defense? And like, I feel

1215
01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 1: great now, I feel fucking great.

1216
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 3: Well check for ev and number one. All right, number

1217
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 3: two packers, how can we not talk about this? I'm

1218
01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 3: just gonna give one clear system play that I think

1219
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 3: you almost just need to follow here. So teams covering

1220
01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 3: eighty percent of their games, which is the Lions, who

1221
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 3: are a road favorite fifty three eighty nine and three

1222
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 3: thirty seven percent against the spread since twenty ten, and

1223
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 3: that moves to thirty two percent ats and division games.

1224
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 3: Just it's a clear play on Green Bay, one play

1225
01:01:26,920 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 3: one way or the other. And then the thing that's

1226
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:31,919
Speaker 3: kind of going around everywhere. Lafleur's great as a dog,

1227
01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:34,120
Speaker 3: but when he's getting three points or more, he is

1228
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 3: eighteen and four against the spread, No way, twenty and

1229
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 3: two when that throws into a six point teaser, So

1230
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 3: it's the right number, go that direction. And then I'll

1231
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 3: end with one more, which is Tampa. So the odd

1232
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 3: thing with Tampa, kind of like with Miami, is the

1233
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 3: numbers don't matter as much anymore without God winning Evans.

1234
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 3: So if you like Tampa, there's really three options. A

1235
01:01:58,200 --> 01:02:01,400
Speaker 3: their defense shows up and keeps it close. B Baker

1236
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,440
Speaker 3: balls out without Evans, and God when probably not the option,

1237
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 3: or see Baker finds the back door. So what I

1238
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:10,520
Speaker 3: looked up with Mahomes, he is twenty eight thirty one

1239
01:02:10,600 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 3: and three against the spread as a six point favor

1240
01:02:13,040 --> 01:02:16,200
Speaker 3: when his opponent is averaging two hundred and fifty plus

1241
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 3: passing yards. When he's a six point favorite, he's just

1242
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 3: three eight and one against the spread. Now, in those

1243
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 3: three covers, he's won by thirty, nine, eighteen, and thirty five.

1244
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 3: So could he blow out Tampa and cover the game? Sure,

1245
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 3: maybe an option you might want to look at. You

1246
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 3: like Tampa to cover cool, But if you take kse

1247
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:38,480
Speaker 3: to win by twenty or thirty to win by thirty

1248
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:41,320
Speaker 3: is eleven to one. So maybe there's a few ways

1249
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 3: to play a little in both sides. But the numbers

1250
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 3: say take Tampa, especially if Baker can find his group

1251
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 3: of as receivers.

1252
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:54,360
Speaker 1: All spread on the Kansas City Chiefs. That is nice, Evan,

1253
01:02:55,160 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 1: That is tasty well done. See Simon, Don't we feel

1254
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:02,840
Speaker 1: better right now? As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is

1255
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five and now new. The

1256
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:07,800
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1260
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1261
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1263
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1264
01:03:34,160 --> 01:03:37,240
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1265
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:39,560
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

1266
01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I will return

1267
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 1: with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action

1268
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:49,160
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern To

1269
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 1: recap NFL week nine. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

1270
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:57,400
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,

1271
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,800
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift Until next time.

1272
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:11,680
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1273
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:14,320
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:17,240
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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