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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Ballants of Power. It's done.

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Speaker 2: We just heard from the President a short time ago.

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Speaker 2: You likely heard it on Bloomberg Radio if you've been

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Speaker 2: spending some time with us. The President signing the bill.

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Speaker 2: This was a seven month long affair Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan,

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Speaker 2: specifically the money over Ukraine with such a concerted debate,

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Speaker 2: something the President spent so much time lobbying for.

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Speaker 3: He actually signed all of this before.

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Speaker 2: He spoke to reporters earlier at the White House, making

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Speaker 2: it clear that the package is already on the way.

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Speaker 3: Here's the President of short time ago.

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Speaker 4: I'm making sure the shipments start right away in the

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Speaker 4: next few hours, literally a few hours, we're going to

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Speaker 4: began sending equipment to Ukraine for air defense, munitions, for artillery,

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Speaker 4: for rocket systems, and armored vehicles. You know, this package

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Speaker 4: is literally an investment not only in your Red Krane security,

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Speaker 4: but in europe security, in our own security. We're sending

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Speaker 4: Ukraine equipment from our own stockpiles.

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Speaker 2: From our own stockpiles. That's why this billion dollars in

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Speaker 2: hardware was already set to go. When the bill was passed,

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Speaker 2: President signed it.

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Speaker 3: Get it out there.

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Speaker 2: We've even heard from some military analysts on this program

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Speaker 2: suggesting that there are staging areas closer to Ukraine where

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Speaker 2: the weapons and material were being held. The President there

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Speaker 2: speaking from the White House with his US and Ukrainian

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Speaker 2: flag pin on his lapel. What about the numbers, though,

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Speaker 2: if we can back up just a moment, what we

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Speaker 2: saw in the Senate last night is certainly newsworthy. Seventy

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Speaker 2: nine to eighteen the vote, that's the final vote, more

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Speaker 2: voting for this than did in February, and specifically more Republicans.

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Speaker 2: Thirty one voted for this bill compared to twenty two

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Speaker 2: who voted for the version back in February. As you

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Speaker 2: might remember, that was the one without TikTok. This was

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Speaker 2: supposed to be a heavier lift. Doesn't seem so much

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Speaker 2: like it Only fifteen Republicans voted against it. Let's get

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Speaker 2: into it right now with Jonathan Tomorrow, who covers Congress

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Speaker 2: for US at Bloomberg Government. This day the President signs

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Speaker 2: the bill. Jonathan, I don't know what you would have

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Speaker 2: done with the last seven months of your life otherwise,

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Speaker 2: but this was long and coming, and I wonder how

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Speaker 2: you would frame this final vote in the Senate.

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Speaker 5: Well, I'd say this is one victory and maybe one

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Speaker 5: last victory, but a victory for some of the kind

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Speaker 5: of institutionalists, of the internationalists in the Senate and certainly

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Speaker 5: within the Republican Party. A victory for Republicans who are

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Speaker 5: kind of more molded by the Reagan era, molded by

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Speaker 5: the Cold War. The party's really been shifting away from them.

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Speaker 5: It's continuing to shift away from them, but this is

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Speaker 5: one last fight that they want, really driven by Mitch

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Speaker 5: McConnell and bodied by Mitch McConnell, who considered himself a

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Speaker 5: Reagan Republican who came up it was a major figure

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Speaker 5: or has built his career during the Cold War opposing Russia.

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Speaker 5: And when you look at the vote, those Republicans who

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Speaker 5: voted against it very closely aligned with Donald Trump. Many

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Speaker 5: of them are very recently elected to the Senate. So

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Speaker 5: a newer generation of Republicans are opposing this kind of thing,

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Speaker 5: but it was one last time, or possibly one last time,

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Speaker 5: that that older generation of Republicans were able to prevail

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Speaker 5: on this kind of issue.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's one exception to that, of course, Jonathan John Barrasso,

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Speaker 2: not only a veteran but the Senate Republican Conference chair

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Speaker 2: who wants Mitch McConnell's job.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of that no vote?

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Speaker 5: Well, Barrasso is probably the most Trump aligned member of

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Speaker 5: the Republican leadership, and so I think that's a bit

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Speaker 5: of that going on there. He is now, I think,

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Speaker 5: seeking the number two job in that conference, and so

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Speaker 5: he doesn't have the same necessary political pressures as some

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Speaker 5: of the others. Maybe has a little more freedom because

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Speaker 5: I think he's running actually unopposed for that position at

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Speaker 5: this point.

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Speaker 6: So definitely an interesting vote.

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Speaker 5: He broke with other Republican leaders on it, but I

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Speaker 5: think that's in keeping with him even though he's of

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Speaker 5: that kind of older era of Republicanism, he's been more

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Speaker 5: aligned with Trump more recently.

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Speaker 2: The Democrats adjoining Republicans in opposing this bill one not

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Speaker 2: a big surprise. Bernie Sanders but Jeff Murkley as well,

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Speaker 2: Peter Welch also from Vermont, like Bernie Sanders, this is

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Speaker 2: all about Israel funding, right, They wanted to pull back

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Speaker 2: on the weapons that we were sending.

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Speaker 3: Not a surprise there, not a surprise.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think it's one additional vote compared to

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Speaker 5: when they voted in February. I think Welch and Sanders

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Speaker 5: were both nosed back in February, so you have to

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Speaker 5: pick up an additional Democrat. They do want to impose

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Speaker 5: more sanctions or i'm sorry, more restrictions on the way

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Speaker 5: that those weapons can be used. But I think you're

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Speaker 5: seeing that even though that idea has spread through a

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Speaker 5: significant part of the Democratic base, it's not reaching up

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Speaker 5: into kind of the institutional establishment part of the party.

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Speaker 7: Yet.

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Speaker 5: There was a very small number of defections in the

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Speaker 5: House from Democrats, and as we see last night, a

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Speaker 5: very small number of defections in the Senate as well.

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Speaker 5: So a major issue among maybe base voters and younger voters,

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Speaker 5: but not so much the folks who are in office.

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Speaker 2: Quite at this point, I don't know to what extent

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Speaker 2: any of this is resonating on the campaign trail at

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Speaker 2: this moment.

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Speaker 3: Ukraine has its own influence.

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Speaker 2: But there was a primary yesterday, Jonathan, and I know

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Speaker 2: you're covering this as well, with Pennsylvania always being close

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Speaker 2: to your heart. As far as the top of the ticket, here, Nikki,

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Speaker 2: a name that we haven't heard in quite some time,

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Speaker 2: did awfully well. Uh one more than a one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty five thousand votes seventeen percent. That's a protest

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Speaker 2: vote worth noting what's happening in Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely. I mean when you look at Pennsylvania the last election,

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Speaker 5: it was decided by eighty thousand votes, and so that's

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Speaker 5: you know, half of the mart of what Nikki Haley got.

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Speaker 5: And these are people there was no real campaign, So

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Speaker 5: these are people who didn't have a lot of reason

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Speaker 5: to vote and chose to come out and show their

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Speaker 5: kind of protest against Donald Trump. And this is a

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Speaker 5: closed primary, so these are only registered Republicans who are

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Speaker 5: voting so today that leaves us with the question of

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Speaker 5: are these people who are registered Republican but have been

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Speaker 5: voting Democratic for some time now, or are these Republicans

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Speaker 5: who are breaking away from Trump after his last election.

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Speaker 5: And even if it's a small number that are Republicans

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Speaker 5: breaking away from Trump. It could be meaningful. State was this,

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Speaker 5: as I said, by eighty thousand votes last election, forty

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Speaker 5: thousand votes the election before that. So a tiny margin

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Speaker 5: of people could make a really big difference. And we've

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Speaker 5: seen Trump really lose ground in the Philadelphia suburbs, lose

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Speaker 5: Republicans who were kind of Bush Romney traditional Republicans. And

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Speaker 5: when you're looking for every little percentage point, that's a

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Speaker 5: warning sign for the former president.

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Speaker 3: Glad you get join us, Jonathan.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see Jonathan Tomori Bloomberg Government look for

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Speaker 2: his reporting on the terminal and online. We should note

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Speaker 2: that the president himself was facing a bit of a

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Speaker 2: protest vote. I guess we can call it that. In Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: Dean Phillips, no longer in the race, got seven percent.

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Speaker 2: We'll have more on the primary results and the results

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Speaker 2: of the Bloomberg Swing state poll coming up a little

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Speaker 2: bit later on this hour, as we continue our focus

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Speaker 2: on the foreign aid package that the President of the

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Speaker 2: United States just signed. This, of course was not only

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and Israel, it was also Taiwan. The INDOPAC compled

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Speaker 2: of this package got much less media coverage, less attention,

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Speaker 2: probably because it was less controversial and it's something that

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Speaker 2: we want to discuss with. Max Bauchus, the former senator

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Speaker 2: and former US Ambassador to China, is with us right now.

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Speaker 2: Mister ambassador, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to just start more broadly here with your

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Speaker 2: foreign policy experience. The President acknowledged the seven month wait,

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Speaker 2: the painful debate that preceded the passage of this bill

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Speaker 2: and the president's signature. What message did we just send

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Speaker 2: to the world by waiting that long, Well, Frankly.

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Speaker 8: The good news is we were sending message to the

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Speaker 8: world that we can govern. Sure, it took atle while,

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Speaker 8: but we got it done. Could have gone the other way.

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Speaker 8: That package could have collapsed for one reason or another.

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Speaker 8: It did not collapse. It passed. It passed a very

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Speaker 8: large margin, the biparison margin. I should give some comfort

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Speaker 8: to Americans. We could govern based on foreign policy matters,

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Speaker 8: and Sir, a very strong message to Europe on Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: It's a very strong message worldwide and also to China.

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Speaker 8: China sometimes thinks that that the United States is in decline.

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Speaker 8: This shows no, no, we're not in decline. We're know

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Speaker 8: we're doing we let's slow get in there, but we

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Speaker 8: do get there.

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Speaker 2: And we're standing by our allies in Taiwan. This is

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Speaker 2: a delicate situation, Ambassador, What does Beijing think about this

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Speaker 2: package we just passed.

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Speaker 8: When I was serving in Beijing, the Chinese drilled into

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Speaker 8: me that Taiwan is a core issue. It's non negotiable.

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Speaker 8: Taiwan alongs to China. It is totally non negotiable to

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Speaker 8: the Chinese. And that's the message. The Chinese gave it

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Speaker 8: to a with a General Austin just a short while ago.

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Speaker 8: So we have to keep that in mind. And also

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Speaker 8: remember the United States does adhere to a one China policy.

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Speaker 8: One China policy says that there is one China, it's

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Speaker 8: mainland China as Taiwan. We're not sure how that's going

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Speaker 8: to happen. We are opposed to a military intervention the

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Speaker 8: United States is. We're also opposed to independence of Taiwan.

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Speaker 8: It's very dicey, and frankly, I think that both sides

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Speaker 8: are know where the the tripwire is. Both sides, however,

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Speaker 8: are getting close to it, and I think we run

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Speaker 8: a danger when we send a lot more arms in Taiwan.

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Speaker 8: Most people in Taiwan don't like the status quo. They

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Speaker 8: don't want change, They like it the way it is.

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Speaker 8: They don't want independence, they don't want to be controlled

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Speaker 8: by China. They kind of like the way it is.

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Speaker 8: And I think there too few in America understand that

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Speaker 8: really is the view of the taiwan As people. And

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Speaker 8: I also don't think China is going to is going

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Speaker 8: to be a military if they Taiwan not in the

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Speaker 8: foreseeable future. Why because Taiwan does not want more generally,

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Speaker 8: US doesn't want more generally. And President she cares about

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Speaker 8: one thing, one thing that's political security. He sees what

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Speaker 8: happened in Ukraine. You see, the Russia made a big mistake.

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Speaker 8: They embarrassed themselves. Their generals were wrong. He's concerned about

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Speaker 8: his pla generals. Maybe his generals will not do for

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Speaker 8: him what he would like them to do. He's very,

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Speaker 8: very risk adverse when it comes to militarily invading Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: Well, i'll tell you Anthony Blincoln is on his way,

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Speaker 2: as you know, Ambassador and Bloomberg is reporting that the

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Speaker 2: US is drafting sanctions now potentially sanctions against China for

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Speaker 2: doing business with Russia. He's set to deliver that message

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Speaker 2: in Beijing commercial support to be clear of Russia's military production.

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Speaker 3: How's that message going to go over?

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Speaker 8: Well, first, it's good that the Secretary is going to China.

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Speaker 8: I think that more. He should go over more often.

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Speaker 8: If you can't, other cabinet secretary should go over. We

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Speaker 8: just need a lot more communication between US and China.

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Speaker 8: When I was serving as ambassador, secretaries came over very frequently.

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Speaker 8: Bred Obama came over frequently. Now under the current regime

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Speaker 8: there's less. Under Trump, very few secretaries went over. So

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Speaker 8: it's good that Secretary of Lincoln's going, and he's facing

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Speaker 8: a whole raft of problems and going over that is,

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Speaker 8: first of all, there's a message in US ME sanctioned

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Speaker 8: China for commercial aid, not military, but commercial aid to Russia.

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Speaker 8: I mean, he's also going to probably address over capacity,

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Speaker 8: the problem that Secretary yelling face. And in addition to that,

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Speaker 8: he's probably going to raise the problem with the Chinese

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Speaker 8: trying to prevent aid to that that sunken ship just

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Speaker 8: off the Philippines. He's going to have a hard time.

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Speaker 8: The Chinese are going to give him a hard time.

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Speaker 2: Well, they might want to give him a hard time

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Speaker 2: about TikTok as well, because every time we talk about

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Speaker 2: working with China, we want to give them a hard

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Speaker 2: time on something like this.

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Speaker 3: Well, what do you make of this bill?

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Speaker 2: I know that we're going to get into a big

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Speaker 2: court fight here, ambassador, but politically, what does this divest

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Speaker 2: or ban order mean for our relationship?

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Speaker 8: Well, clearly it's not good and as you are replying,

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Speaker 8: has yet to play out. For there's a question whether

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Speaker 8: it could be a sale. I think it's very difficult

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Speaker 8: to occur because any purchaser looking at buying TikTok from

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Speaker 8: by Dance is going to see that Chinese government does

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Speaker 8: not want to sell the algorithm, which means the value

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Speaker 8: of TikTok is very very low. It's not it's not

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Speaker 8: going to work. But second, you know that all the

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Speaker 8: problems of banning the app, the people will get around

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Speaker 8: it country going forious countries. It's it's just not an

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Speaker 8: easy thing to do. And as you're saying that it's

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Speaker 8: going to be resolved in the courts, basically, I think

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Speaker 8: that it's a huge problem. Raises another issue of frankly,

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Speaker 8: and that is the partisan politics in the United States

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Speaker 8: against China, and it's felt well understood. Clearly, we want

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Speaker 8: to protect our national security first. That's first and foremost

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Speaker 8: over any everything. The trouble is national security is being

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Speaker 8: used to someone as an umbrella to cover lots of

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Speaker 8: other interests, not just national security, but commercial interests. And

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Speaker 8: you know, you know, I'd like to know where where

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Speaker 8: the beef is. Often the United States government says, well,

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Speaker 8: China's might do this, might do that, what might But

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Speaker 8: where's the evidence? Where's the evidence? Where's the beef? One

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Speaker 8: problem I have is to a large degree, all of

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Speaker 8: the yes governments have to say China, don't, don't have

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Speaker 8: to invite any evidence, just China. That's enough to cause

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Speaker 8: people all upset and say, oh no, we got to

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Speaker 8: do something against China. I raise all this because we're

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Speaker 8: going in the wrong direction. Is a greater divide between

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Speaker 8: the two countries. Both countries are rearming more and more,

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Speaker 8: and that's not a good direction. We should be figuring

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Speaker 8: out ways to go in the other direction where we

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Speaker 8: neither country is doing a very good job at all

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Speaker 8: trying to figure out how it worked better together.

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Speaker 3: Ambassador, I'm out of time.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to set you up to cut you

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Speaker 2: off here, but in our remaining thirty seconds, should speaker

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson visit Taiwan now that this is best?

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Speaker 8: No, he should not speak of PULSI should not have

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Speaker 8: gone over. Johnson should not go over. Let's just kind

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Speaker 8: of let things cool off a little bit. There are

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Speaker 8: ways to show our support for Taiwan, but don't rub

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Speaker 8: spigger Johnson's don't rub the nose of Chinese bigger Johnson

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Speaker 8: did not.

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Speaker 2: Go Yeah, it's great to have you, Baxter, come see

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Speaker 2: us against soon the former ambassador to China, former US

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Speaker 2: Senator Max Bachus getting us rolling here on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 3: It's the Wednesday edition. The bill has been signed.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 9: The good reminder that earning season is underway, and certainly

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Speaker 9: that is driving a lot of the market action, But

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Speaker 9: so too jodas the economic data. We're going to get

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Speaker 9: a bunch more of it this week, including GDP tomorrow,

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Speaker 9: which is expected to show still robust growth in the

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Speaker 9: United States of two and a half percent after the

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Speaker 9: prior reading of three point four percent. To this economy

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Speaker 9: still by and large hanging in there. The problem for

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Speaker 9: President Biden is he's certainly not getting credit for it,

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Speaker 9: and people don't think it's as good as the data

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Speaker 9: may suggest.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, we have to note I realize the pain

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Speaker 2: that's involved with going to the grocery store and more

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Speaker 2: recently again the gas station. But we have to note

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Speaker 2: that data are so strong that the Fed has had

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Speaker 2: to move its plans to cut interest rates, and you

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Speaker 2: would think that that might be a strength that is

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Speaker 2: enjoyed by more people than we're seeing in this new

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg swing state. Poul Kley, it's not just those who

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Speaker 2: think the economy is a problem now, but the lack

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Speaker 2: of optimism of the economy moving forward is a huge

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Speaker 2: problem for this president.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: Only twenty three percent of respondents said the unemployed the

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Speaker 9: employment rate would improve over that between now and the

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Speaker 9: end of the year, which is suggesting they don't have

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Speaker 9: better prospects necessarily for the job market. They actually expect

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Speaker 9: the conditions to get worse, not better, and therein lies the.

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Speaker 2: Read among undecideds it's single digits, who are optimistic that

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Speaker 2: that number.

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Speaker 3: Is going to improve, Kaylee.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a lot to unpack here and a

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Speaker 2: couple of important voices to help us with That will

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Speaker 2: be joined in a moment by Eli Yoakley, political analyst

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Speaker 2: with our partners at Morning Consult that helped to run

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Speaker 2: this poll. And right now our conversation with Laura Davison,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Politics editor who's deeply involved in the poll. Here, Laura,

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Speaker 2: great to see you have we isolated the biggest areas

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Speaker 2: of concern for Joe Biden here. Issue number one remains

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Speaker 2: the economy.

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Speaker 10: The economy and within that inflation still continues to be

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Speaker 10: the issue that people are saying that they think is

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Speaker 10: not going to get better. You know, we did see

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Speaker 10: in the past month some data for inflation that was

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Speaker 10: a little less encouraging, the Fed pushing back any rate cuts.

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Speaker 10: You know, Borrowing costs continue to be an issue that

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Speaker 10: people cited.

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Speaker 8: In this poll.

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Speaker 10: And you know, by and large, the bump that he

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Speaker 10: got from the State of the Union last month has

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Speaker 10: all but disappeared in this month's pole. So that's not

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Speaker 10: great for the president, you know, particularly in those sun

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Speaker 10: belt states, you know, Arizona, New North Carolina, Georgia. You know,

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Speaker 10: in some cases, you know, you know, spreads looking close

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Speaker 10: to ten percent, which is, you know, a big gap

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Speaker 10: to make up, even though he have some time.

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Speaker 9: Well, it's interesting to consider how things have since the

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Speaker 9: State of the Union address maybe got better for a

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Speaker 9: period and now has fallen off. He outlined a bunch

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Speaker 9: of things in that address he gave back in early March,

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Speaker 9: including changes he'd like to see to tax policy.

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Speaker 7: And the like.

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Speaker 9: And it's interesting when you look at some of the

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Speaker 9: other aside from the top line of the polling, we

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Speaker 9: did down into things like who ultimately should be taxed

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Speaker 9: to save social Security? A lot of people in these

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Speaker 9: swing states think, yeah, tax the billionaires, save our welfare.

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Speaker 10: It's really incredible how much support there is for a

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Speaker 10: billionaire's tax. You know, the seventy seven percent of swing

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Speaker 10: state voters in this poll said that they would support

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Speaker 10: a billionaire's tax to fund social Security. It's interesting we

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Speaker 10: pulled last month on just the popularity in general of

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Speaker 10: a billionaire's tax. It was, you know about seventy percent.

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Speaker 10: So people love a billionaire's tax, and when you ask

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Speaker 10: them if they want it to pay for Social Security,

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Speaker 10: they love it even more. Of course, the political challenge

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Speaker 10: of this is, you know, about half of Congress is

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Speaker 10: opposed to a billionaire's tax, if not.

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Speaker 5: A little bit more.

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Speaker 10: You know, all of Republicans and a handful of Democrats

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Speaker 10: in some cases. So you know, this is really the

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Speaker 10: disconnect where you see, you know, what the American public

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Speaker 10: ones and what Congress can get done. And that will

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Speaker 10: be the challenge you know, in the coming years.

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Speaker 2: Rationalize that among Trumps supporters a self professed billionaire, whether

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Speaker 2: or not that's actually true, he's making the lifestyle of

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Speaker 2: a billionaire look pretty good for them, right, and they

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Speaker 2: think that he ought to be able to pay his

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Speaker 2: attorney's fees with small cash donations instead of spending his

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Speaker 2: own money. Those same voters support a billionaire's tax. How

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Speaker 2: does that work.

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Speaker 10: It's a really interesting disconnect. And we've seen a shift

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Speaker 10: in the American public, you know, in the past you know,

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Speaker 10: decade or so of you know, wanting more taxes on

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Speaker 10: the wealthy. You know, even you know, Donald Trump's tax

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Speaker 10: cut in twenty seventeen. It was the first tax cut

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Speaker 10: to be politically unpopular. You know, Bush did a bunch

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Speaker 10: of tax cuts in the two thousands, all popular. But

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Speaker 10: we've seen this shift of you know that people seem

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Speaker 10: to think that the wealthy should pay more. How you

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Speaker 10: square that with you know, Republicans also wanting Donald Trump

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Speaker 10: to be able to tack political money for his legal fees.

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Speaker 10: I couldn't even begin to tell you.

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Speaker 9: Well the subject of Trump's legal battles. It's also worth

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Speaker 9: pointing out tomorrow is the day the Supreme Court's going

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Speaker 9: to hear arguments in his immunity from prosecution case, or

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Speaker 9: the case he's making that he should be immune from

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Speaker 9: prosecution here in Washington. Today, though, Laura, the court was

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Speaker 9: dealing with another issue related to abortion, specifically in emergency

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Speaker 9: cases in Idaho. And yet it speaks to this wider

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Speaker 9: issue of abortion that continues to rear its head in

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Speaker 9: the legal system and in a number of states. And

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Speaker 9: this poll was conducted including in the swing state of Arizona,

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Speaker 9: after the abortion ruling there, which reinstated a law from

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Speaker 9: the Civil War era, or essentially said it could be enforced.

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Speaker 9: How did we see that showing.

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Speaker 10: Up so across all party ideas, Democrats, Republicans, independence, abortion

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Speaker 10: has ticked up as an issue that is very important

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Speaker 10: to voters, you know, particularly among Democrats, particularly in Arizona.

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Speaker 10: We saw that most acutely. But having these headlines you

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Speaker 10: know about you know, IVF in Alabama, having the Idaho headlines,

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Speaker 10: having you know, Florida now being a you know, potentially

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Speaker 10: the Biden campaign thinks in play because of the abortion

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Speaker 10: referendum on the ballot there. This is only continuing to

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Speaker 10: be more important to voters, and Democrats are really banking

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Speaker 10: on this as being an issue that will turn out

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Speaker 10: voters in what is otherwise, you know, political experts are

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Speaker 10: projecting as a lower turnout election that we've seen for

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Speaker 10: the past several cycles.

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Speaker 9: All right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison, thank you so

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Speaker 9: much as always for joining us. So, Joe, maybe it

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Speaker 9: is partially about abortion, but our polling would indicate largely

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Speaker 9: it still is the economy stupid, as we hear so frequently,

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Speaker 9: and that's a message the White House is going to

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Speaker 9: have to counter. And someone from the White House, Gen Spurling,

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Speaker 9: who's an advisor to the President, used to run the

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Speaker 9: National Economic Council was talking about that on Bloomberg Television

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Speaker 9: earlier today, and this is what he said to push

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Speaker 9: back on that narrative.

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Speaker 11: I think overall, there's been lots of evidence that people

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Speaker 11: are starting to appreciate more of the positive things in

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Speaker 11: this economy. When people have gone to the polls, when

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Speaker 11: they've actually voted and had a chance to register their unhappiness,

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Speaker 11: like in twenty twenty two, what happened. It ended up

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Speaker 11: being a historically positive election for this president.

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Speaker 9: So for more on the issue of the economy and

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Speaker 9: what we're seeing in our polling, we turned nowt to

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Speaker 9: Eli Yoakley of Morning Consult, where he is the US

438
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 9: politics analyst. Eli, it's always great to have you on

439
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 9: poll Day, Happy poll Day as we call it here

440
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 9: at Bloomberg. When we look at what we're seeing in

441
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 9: terms of the feeling around the economy, knowing that it

442
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 9: is currently April, there's still six and a half months

443
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 9: ago until the election, at what point of views around

444
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 9: the economy solidified enough that there is nothing that the

445
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 9: Biden campaign is going to be able to do to

446
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 9: change minds.

447
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 6: I mean, one thing that stood out to me as

448
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 6: I was reviewing some of The data is this is

449
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 6: the first month in a while when voters across the

450
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 6: swing state map, more voters than the month before had

451
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 6: said that they see prices as increasing. We've done this

452
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 6: now for seven months in a row, and we're basically

453
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 6: back to where things began in terms of how voters

454
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 6: are perceiving inflation. And you know, that's worse in these

455
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 6: states where President Biden is doing the worst, places like Nevada,

456
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 6: places like North Carolina and Arizona. Clearly that is weighing

457
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:16,919
Speaker 6: on the president's reelection prospects in a big way. This

458
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 6: is always voter's number one issue, and even if you

459
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 6: ask them to pick one issue, the economy is up there.

460
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 6: This is going to be a problem that Biden campaign

461
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 6: is going to have to deal with. They're going to

462
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 6: you know, we've seen some of the Democratic strategists argue

463
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 6: this that Biden needs to stop trying to sell Bidenomics

464
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 6: and meet voters where they are and acknowledge the prices increasing.

465
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 6: This is this is obviously a problem for him and

466
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 6: until he addresses it, it's probably not going to go away.

467
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 2: So much of this has to do eli with expectations

468
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 2: fewer than one in five say they think inflation will

469
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 2: come down by the end of the year, only twenty

470
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 2: three percent think the unemployment rate will improve. Does this

471
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 2: indicate that there's a potential for massive upside for Joe

472
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 2: Biden when expectations are so low.

473
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,199
Speaker 6: I mean, that's kind of the Joe Biden campaign trick, right,

474
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 6: is let people think things are going to be really

475
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 6: bad and then outperforming. He did that the State of

476
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 6: the Union. People didn't think he could get through a

477
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 6: speech that late anight, and he crushed it in their minds, right.

478
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 6: You know, yeah, I think that is possible. Voters aren't

479
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 6: afraid of losing their jobs, and we've asked that every month.

480
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 6: That's not a big concern. Obviously, it's is prices problem

481
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 6: that he's dealing with. The one upside here that we've

482
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 6: noticed this month in a bigger way than we had

483
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 6: in the previous months, is the economy as a top

484
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 6: issue has declined a bit. Other issues have taken precedence. Now.

485
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 6: One of those is kind of bad for the president.

486
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,479
Speaker 6: That's immigration. This is an issue that Republicans have always

487
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 6: had an advantage on and are very very good at,

488
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 6: webonizing against Democrats. The other one is abortion, and we

489
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 6: saw this wave of in this wave of surveys and

490
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 6: increase among the voters who say their number one issue

491
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 6: is abortion. That seems like it might be a bit

492
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 6: of an out for President Biden, especially in Arizona, by

493
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 6: the way, one of the places where he's doing the worst.

494
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 6: The economy is almost tied with immigration, but abortion doubled

495
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 6: since we started doing this, and a lot of that

496
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 6: movement happened after that state Supreme Court put in that

497
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 6: Civil War era law that manned most abortions in the state.

498
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,959
Speaker 6: So that's a long way of saying the economy is

499
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 6: something that people are dealing with. It's a big concern

500
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 6: and it makes them unhappy with what they're seeing in Washington.

501
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 6: But as his campaign unfolds over the next several months,

502
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 6: there's going to be moments in places like Arizona and

503
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 6: in other places where other issues take prominence. The question

504
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 6: for President Biden is going to be when is that

505
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 6: is at a beneficial moment where the end of the campaign,

506
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 6: or at moments like this when twitters might get used

507
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 6: to what they're seeing.

508
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 9: All right, Elias, you talk about the issue of abortion

509
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 9: and how the Arizona Supreme Court weighed in on that

510
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 9: the Supreme Court, the actual high court in the United

511
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 9: States here in Washington, was dealing with the abortion issue

512
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 9: as well in a case today. Tomorrow they'll be dealing

513
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 9: with a case involving Donald Trump and his immunity from

514
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:16,199
Speaker 9: prosecution argument. When we think about Trump and how his

515
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 9: legal battles factor into voter opinion in the swing states,

516
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 9: I know we've asked this question before in our polling,

517
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 9: didn't this time around, But how should we be thinking

518
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 9: about as we see him in court in New York

519
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 9: where he'll be back tomorrow, as we see the Supreme

520
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 9: Court taking up these questions, as we deal with the

521
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 9: possibility that he could very well end up a convicted

522
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,239
Speaker 9: felon in the next month or two, how is that

523
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 9: likely to change what we're seeing in the polling.

524
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 6: I think that the way the American people are thinking

525
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 6: about this election, the abortion issue is a big deal.

526
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 6: What crisis people are paying is a big deal. But

527
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 6: these two individual characters, I think are the biggest deal.

528
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 6: People know where they stand on the policy issues. But

529
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 6: you have questions about President Joe Biden's age, almost a

530
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 6: senility question, and then you have questions about Donald Trump's

531
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 6: alleged crimes, the criminality question, the earlier pieces of this

532
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 6: for the former president, we're not breaking through in a

533
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 6: massive way when they were coming down, especially some of

534
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 6: the federal cases that are coming. Now that the American

535
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 6: people are tuning into this over the coming months, we're

536
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 6: going to need to watch how they react to this

537
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 6: and how much of this breaks through versus how much

538
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 6: of how people think about Donald Trump's criminality is already

539
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 6: baked in. I think a lot of the American people

540
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 6: had understanding of where they were on that question after

541
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 6: things like January sixth, or after all the things we

542
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 6: went through. Trump's twenty sixteen trial, his twenty sixteen election,

543
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,479
Speaker 6: But he was not on trial of that. He was

544
00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 6: never convicted by a jury of average folks in a

545
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 6: way that it's possible he will be this year. That

546
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 6: could be an inflection point if it comes with the

547
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 6: day to day trial stuff. We'll see how much that

548
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 6: breaks through. That doesn't seem like the kind of thing

549
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 6: that is going to be that compelling to the American people.

550
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 6: There's no cameras in the courtroom. All it is is

551
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 6: Donald Trump standing out in the hallway talking for a

552
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 6: minute and then they move on. The bigger deal will

553
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 6: be if Donald Trump faces a conviction that is a

554
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 6: defining moment that probably would weigh on the American people.

555
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: Spending time with Eli Yoakley at Morning consult Lastly, Eli,

556
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 2: we saw and it may not be a big surprise,

557
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: but concern about geopolitical issues, namely Israel fault to single

558
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: digits in this poll. As so many people talk about

559
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: a protest vote in the primary trail for Joe Biden.

560
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 2: Is this something he needs to worry about in the

561
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 2: swing states or not.

562
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 6: I think that this is an issue where the president

563
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 6: has sort of evolved a bit, and it's one where

564
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 6: the American people have evolved. Two. I mean, it's not

565
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 6: top of mind for voters, but it is one where

566
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 6: there are big inflection moments that stick out. And we

567
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 6: saw this or in earlier iterations after some horrific hospital

568
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 6: bombing or after the Hamas attack on Israel the American people,

569
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 6: do you see it when something big and dramatic happens.

570
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 6: But look, Israel's losing the PR battle. Donald Trump said that,

571
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 6: and he's right. I mean, we're saying this in all

572
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 6: of our data. Israel is losing the PR battle among

573
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 6: the American people. The American people seem tired of this war.

574
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,479
Speaker 6: They seem to be sympathetic with the House Senians are

575
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 6: at least both sides equally, and in our national data,

576
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 6: they've got a lot of questions about sending money to

577
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 6: Israel after what they've seen unfold over the past.

578
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 2: Which is pretty important on a day like this when

579
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 2: the President actually signs the bill to send the money

580
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 2: and the support. Eli, it's great to have you back,

581
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 2: Eli Oakley, walking us through our monthly drop. You're in

582
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Morning Consult Swing State poll talking in a

583
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: monthly line.

584
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

585
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and

586
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: then Proud Otto with.

587
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 3: The Bloomberg Business app.

588
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

589
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

590
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 9: I'm Keylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, broadcasting

591
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 9: live on Bloomberg Television and Radio on what is not

592
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 9: just any Wednesday, Joe, but it is poll day. Yes,

593
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 9: once again we have a look at the seven swing

594
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 9: states likely to decide the outcome of the election. It's

595
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 9: not looking good for President Biden. He's losing in all

596
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 9: but one of them, Michigan. And of course this is

597
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 9: something that has not just domestic implications as we consider

598
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 9: whether it's going to be the current president or the

599
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 9: former president who is president in twenty twenty five, but

600
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 9: it has implications for US allies and adversaries in our

601
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 9: partnerships all around the world as well, that.

602
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: Is for sure.

603
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 2: With questions about what makes this administration different than the

604
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 2: last one when it comes to some of our relationships,

605
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 2: China's the big one. We hear a lot about tariffs

606
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 2: are still in place. Another one that is curious is Cuba,

607
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: and we have a unique opportunity to speak with the

608
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 2: Deputy Foreign Minister the Republic of Cuba right now, Carlos

609
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: Fernandez Dicosio is joining us from our studios in New York,

610
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 2: and it's great to see you, minister. Thank you for

611
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: being with us today on Bloomberg. I had the pleasure

612
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 2: of being in Havana in twenty nineteen for the rededication

613
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: of the Hemingway House. At that time I got an

614
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 2: earfull about the different policy, the different relationship that the

615
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 2: Trump White House had with Cuba than the Obama White

616
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: House that relationship has not changed meaningfully since Joe Biden

617
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,719
Speaker 2: was elected, has it.

618
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 12: I agree with you. There has been changes in the

619
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 12: sense of a few areas that the US government has

620
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 12: decided are or benefit for the US and or benefit

621
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 12: of CAN cooperation, for example in law enforcement, in areas

622
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 12: of science, technology, health, some academic But the meaningful part

623
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 12: of the relationship, which is the economic blockade and the

624
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 12: aggression against the Cuban economy, has not changed is been

625
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 12: faithfully applied by the Biden administration.

626
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 9: So is the outcome for Cuba serve the same regardless

627
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 9: of who wins in November of this year, or do

628
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 9: you fear that there could be even more intensified policy

629
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 9: under a second Trump administration when it comes to things

630
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 9: like sanctions and potential economic ramifications for your country.

631
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 12: Like most people, we can't guess who's going to win

632
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 12: the elections, and it's very difficult to truly understand what

633
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 12: they promise and what they're going to do. What we

634
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 12: hope or what we look for, is that whoever wins

635
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 12: does not apply more restrictions, for example, for Cubans that

636
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 12: live in the US to relate with their families and

637
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 12: their country of origin, or for business people to have

638
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 12: even more limitations to business with Cuba. We would hope

639
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 12: that perhaps they eased them or lift them, or for

640
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 12: Americans to travel. They're prohibited to travel to Cuba in

641
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,479
Speaker 12: almost absolutely perhaps they will give the Americans a freedom

642
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 12: to be able to travel as they travel to other countries.

643
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 12: That's what we hope.

644
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 2: What do you hear from the US when it comes

645
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 2: to Cuba's relationship with Russia, because this is something that

646
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 2: is obviously considered a very delicate matter here in Washington.

647
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 2: The fact that Russia is investing in Cuba, the fact

648
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: that Russia in fact drafted some Cubans apparently to fight

649
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: against Ukraine, is that the point of friction between Havana

650
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 2: and Washington right now.

651
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 12: The US government knows that most of the investments that

652
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 12: take place in Cuba are from European countries or Canada,

653
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 12: not so much from Russia. And they also know that

654
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 12: we were the ones that I learned and made public

655
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 12: that a few Cubans that were in Europe were being

656
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 12: recruited for the war, and we took measures for those

657
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 12: that were attempting from Cuba to also travel to the

658
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 12: war and we've learned that there are people on both sides,

659
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 12: both in Ukraine and Russia of Cuban origin, most of

660
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 12: them recruited in Europe, not in Cuba.

661
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 9: Well, sir, considering people who are of Cuban origin brings

662
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 9: us to the wider question around migration. I know you

663
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 9: and your government have been involved in talks with the

664
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 9: US on the issue of migration specifically, is that an

665
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 9: area where progress is being made? Can you just characterize

666
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 9: for us how that effort is going.

667
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 12: That's an area in which the US government and Cuban

668
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 12: government have been able to manage, regardless of the administration

669
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 12: in the White House, for decades already with ups and downs.

670
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 12: At this moment, we have agreements in place that we

671
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 12: implement and issues on which we discuss that put a

672
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 12: limit to the uncontrolled flow, which is what we tried

673
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 12: to cut. But we made it very clear that as

674
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 12: long as the US has a policy of making life

675
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 12: difficult for Cubans, it is logical for them to want

676
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 12: to migrate to a more prosperous economy. Above all, if

677
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 12: there's an invitation by the US that they will get

678
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 12: a privileged treatment if they reach the border of the

679
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 12: United States by whatever means.

680
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 2: So what is the next step. What are you asking

681
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 2: for from Washington when you talk to the administration, when

682
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 2: Havana engages with Washington. What could Joe Biden do now

683
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 2: to begin thawing this relationship with such a close neighbor.

684
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 12: What we're not doing is we're not asking for aid

685
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 12: or preferential trade conditions or financial support. What we're asking

686
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 12: is to be left alone, to allow Cubans to try

687
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 12: to develop economy, to try allow us to put in

688
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 12: place of transformations that we have identified that are needed

689
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 12: to push our economy forward and not make life difficult

690
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 12: for the people of Cuba.

691
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 9: Well, sir, and you alluded to the idea that you

692
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 9: think the extent of the migration we're seeing from Cuba

693
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 9: may have to do with the difficulty economically of what

694
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 9: life in Cuba actually looks like. But is there really

695
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 9: nothing your own government can do on your side in

696
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 9: terms of civil liberties, for example, that may also play

697
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 9: a role in stemming that tide.

698
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 12: Civil liberties is not the main issue. Most of the

699
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 12: experts from US and Cuba who follow migration would say

700
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 12: that it's basically an economic migration. But I do grant

701
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 12: that every country has problems in economic policy and the

702
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 12: discomfort of people with political situation. It happens in all

703
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,839
Speaker 12: of Latin America, it happens in the US. I'm sure

704
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 12: that if you pull people here in the US, not

705
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 12: everybody's happy with the government, not everybody, but he's happy

706
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 12: with the economic condition. But what's extraordinary, what's unique, is

707
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 12: that the most powerful nation in the world, as a policy,

708
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 12: specifically determined to make life as unbearable as possible for

709
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 12: the population. And so it's in the hands of the

710
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 12: United States to tackle that. It's an illegitimate approach. So

711
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 12: the rest we can deal with, but this extraordinary factor

712
00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 12: has to be dealt with by the US government.

713
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 3: Minister.

714
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: There was a visit by Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister

715
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 2: in Cuba at the time of Alexi Navalney's death. That

716
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 2: is a story that resonated very loudly here in the US.

717
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: It's one that the Biden administration took a very strong

718
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 2: stand on when it came to Russia's handling of Alexi Navalny.

719
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 2: Did Havana have a message for Moscow when it came

720
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 2: to Navalney's death.

721
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 12: We have a close relationship with China, with Russia, and

722
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 12: there's no it's no surprise that I have visits for ministers,

723
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 12: but NAVALNI was not part of our agenda.

724
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 9: All right, Deputy Foreign Minister of Cuba, Carlos Fernandez di Costio,

725
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 9: thank you so much for joining us, joining us of

726
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 9: course today from New York. We appreciate your time, sir,

727
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 9: spent on Bloomberg Radio and television and interesting to hear

728
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 9: from him, Joe the idea that maybe there isn't for

729
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 9: Cuba much difference between a Biden administration and a Trumpet

730
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 9: minutstration in the policy that we've seen under each, but

731
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 9: there are serious areas where that Ben diagram does not

732
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 9: overlap as much on things like tax policy. For example,

733
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 9: what was done under the Trump administration back in twenty

734
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 9: seventeen in terms of tax cuts not similar to the

735
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 9: efforts that we've seen Biden, at least outline if he

736
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 9: hasn't even necessarily proved successful on his ideas of taxing

737
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 9: millionaires and billionaires at higher rates and the like.

738
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 2: But there's a difference, but there's a big difference, and

739
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 2: sometimes that's what you're actually able to get done, to

740
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: your point, than what you're actually professing to do. And

741
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 2: it's an interesting situation that we find ourselves in and

742
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 2: one that we wanted to talk about with the former

743
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 2: chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. See Kevin

744
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 2: Brady's coming to talk to us today. The former congressman

745
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 2: from Texas is whetherus. It's great to see you, Kevin Brady.

746
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. There's so much we'd love to.

747
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 3: Talk to you about.

748
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 2: And before I get the tax policy, I know Kayley

749
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 2: wants to go there as well. I just would love

750
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,879
Speaker 2: your thoughts on what just happened in your former House

751
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 2: of Representatives. Seven months of pushback, this new Speaker of

752
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 2: the House managed to pass bills to fund our allies

753
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 2: in hot wars around the world. The President signed it today.

754
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 2: What does that say about the status of Mike Johnson

755
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 2: as Speaker?

756
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 13: Well, Joe and Kayley, it's great to see again. I

757
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 13: love being on balance of powers. So I think you know,

758
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 13: Speaker Johnson, you know, made a commitment for a very

759
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 13: strong America, projecting our strength aroound the world and keeping

760
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,919
Speaker 13: us safe for the longer term. He found a way

761
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 13: to find common ground and hobble together, not just key

762
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 13: priorities for our allies and US rebuilding our military strength

763
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 13: as well, but found a way to find common ground

764
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 13: on how we seize Russian assets and help pay for

765
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 13: the eventual rehabilitation of Ukraine.

766
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 7: So, you know, I think it was a masterful job.

767
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 13: Shows he is a Ronald Reagan Conservative and seeking to

768
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 13: lead his House under difficult situations the very best he can.

769
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 9: Well, sir. It's interesting as well that this is not

770
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 9: the only thing we've actually seen be able to get

771
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 9: through the House with massive bipartisan votes for it. That

772
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 9: also happened with the tax package that past the House.

773
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 9: It's very unclear what will happen in the Senate. So

774
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 9: we want to get to you on the subject of

775
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 9: taxes now, considering we can announce today that you're now

776
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 9: strategic advisor for the Alliance of Competitive Taxation. I'm sure

777
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 9: there's a lot you want to do in this new role, sir,

778
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 9: But what about the tax issue that already is currently

779
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 9: sitting in the Senate. Do you have any real hope

780
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 9: that that bipartisan deal that would include tax breaks for businesses,

781
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 9: expand the child tax credit we'll actually get through in

782
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 9: this Congress or is this something we're not going to

783
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 9: deal with until twenty twenty five.

784
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 7: So I think we're all hopeful.

785
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 13: ACT is a non Parson really policy focus group of

786
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 13: tax diructors from forty eight of America's leading companies.

787
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 7: And these are companies that.

788
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 13: Hire millions of workers, have lots of small businesses, mid

789
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 13: sized businesses that depend on that. They can pete around

790
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 13: the world each and every day against China, Europe and

791
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 13: foreign competitors. So they have a great deal of insight

792
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 13: for policymakers Republican and Democrat on these issues. They are

793
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 13: supportive of the package, as I understand, mainly because you know,

794
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 13: the business provisions within that within that package helps them compete,

795
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 13: drives research, new equipment technology here in the United States.

796
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 13: I think you know, they're all hopeful that perhaps they

797
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 13: can find common grounds sooner rather than later.

798
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 2: Congressman, in your new capacity representing business interests here, you're

799
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 2: going to be attempting and working to preserve the twenty

800
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: seventeen tax cuts to.

801
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 3: Make them permanent.

802
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 2: And we've got a new poll out today, and I

803
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: wonder what your reaction to this is.

804
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 3: This is D's and ours.

805
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 2: Seventy seven percent of registered voters in the seven swing

806
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 2: states that we are tracking seventy seven percent. There are

807
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 2: not a lot of issues where we can get a

808
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 2: number like that. Support the idea of a billionaire's tax

809
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 2: to pay for Social Security and other entitlements. How do

810
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 2: you have both when you're trying to extend the twenty

811
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 2: seventeen tax cuts. Could we also see a billionaire's tax

812
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 2: in America?

813
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 7: You know, I don't think it's lacked them.

814
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 13: I'm always surprised those polls aren't at one hundred percent,

815
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 13: because who doesn't want to tax millionaires and billionaires? But

816
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 13: the truth matter is, you know what tax payers are

817
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 13: hoping for than twenty twenty five Congress both parties will

818
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 13: come together to extend you know, those middle class and

819
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:37,359
Speaker 13: personal tax cuts, the tax cuts for small business they're

820
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 13: so critical, and then extend the business provisions that have

821
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 13: allowed American companies, small or large to compete around the

822
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 13: world and when and bring their profits back to Invest

823
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 13: in America Act, which is this coalition is focused on

824
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 13: providing research and policy ideas to Congress on issues like

825
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 13: how do you make sure America is the very best

826
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 13: place to invest in create new jobs? How do you

827
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 13: make sure American companies can compete and win anywhere in

828
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 13: the world, especially when China is so publicly targeting our

829
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 13: American industries. And finally, they want to incentivize more research

830
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 13: and innovation in the US because, as you know, the

831
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 13: country that wins the innovation race really wins the future.

832
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 13: And so these are these policy ideas that I think

833
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 13: Republicans and Democrats are both vitally interested in.

834
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 9: Well, Congressman, how do you make sure these policy ideas, though,

835
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 9: are also fiscally responsible? Because as much as the Trump

836
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 9: tax cuts of twenty seventeen may be heralded for the

837
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 9: impact they had on businesses, we also saw trillions of

838
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,720
Speaker 9: dollars added to the federal deficit. If you're not getting

839
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 9: as much revenue but you're still spending a lot, that

840
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 9: isn't exactly the kind of equation you want to see

841
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 9: for deficit reduction. So what's the responsible way to pursue this?

842
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 13: Yeah, so I think one that didn't add trillions of

843
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 13: dollars to the debt. That's been fact checked as misleading,

844
00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 13: even though the President continues to claim that in fact,

845
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 13: the corporate tax revenues, which were initially criticizing, we're now

846
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 13: generating more for the US government at twenty one percent

847
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 13: tax rate than we were at thirty five percent corporate

848
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 13: tax rate. And why because we're growing the economy from

849
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 13: the business community, increasing workers' paychecks, drawing investment in new

850
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 13: jobs back to the United States. And so what I

851
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 13: do think is lawmakers on both sides OWL will be

852
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 13: looking for ways to offset some of those taxes. And

853
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,959
Speaker 13: I will tell you in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,

854
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 13: you know, we didn't have one and a half trillion

855
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 13: dollars of taxes. We had five and a half trillion

856
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 13: dollars of tax reform. You know, we made major changes

857
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 13: to the tax code to simplify, make it more fair,

858
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 13: eliminate provisions for some, so we could lower taxes for everyone,

859
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 13: middle class families, working moms, small businesses in the like.

860
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 13: And I think you'll see lawmakers taking much the same

861
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 13: approach in twenty twenty five.

862
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 9: All Right, Former Congressman Kevin Brady of Texas, thank you

863
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 9: very much for joining us here on balance of power,

864
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 9: and congratulations on the new role again. He has joined

865
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 9: the Alliance for Competitive Taxation. As we've finished one battle

866
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 9: in Congress this week, Joe over funding over the supplemental

867
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 9: It just reminds us there are still many battles ahead,

868
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 9: including on tax balls.

869
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 3: Well, we're here every day on Balance of Power. We

870
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:21,800
Speaker 3: need to get Kevin Brady in studio.

871
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 2: Congressman, when you're back in Washington, come see us with

872
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lions. I'm Joe Matthew. Thanks for listening to the

873
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 2: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

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Speaker 2: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 2: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

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Speaker 2: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.