1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Hi, it's your host Laura Carlson, and I've got a 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: quick request for an upcoming episode. We want to hear 3 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: your stories. Has the pandemic caused you to seek mental 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: health care? If you're willing to talk about it, we'd 5 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: like you to leave us a voicemail at one six 6 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: or six three, two four three four nine zero. Tell 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 1: us as much or as little as you want about 8 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: your need to reach out for help, and then tell 9 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: us whether you've been able to find it. That number 10 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: again is one six four six three two four three 11 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: nine zero. We may use your voice on an upcoming episode. 12 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: Now onto the show. Welcome to Prognosis. It's day twenty 13 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: two since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today, how 14 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: long will it take to develop up the vaccine? But first, 15 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: today's news, a new intelligence report suggests China has concealed 16 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: the extent of its coronavirus outbreak. Three US officials told 17 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg about a classified report the intelligence community sent to 18 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: the White House saying China underreported both its total cases 19 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: and deaths. The officials asked not to be identified because 20 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: the report is secret and did not describe its contents 21 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: in detail. But they said the thrust of the report 22 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: is that China's public reporting on cases and deaths is 23 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: intentionally incomplete. In the US, which now has the largest 24 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: public reported outbreak in the world, estimate show as many 25 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: as two hundred and forty thousand Americans could die from 26 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, and that's with mitigation efforts in place. Based 27 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: on these projections, US President Donald Trump took a newly 28 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: sober tone in a Tuesday briefing. I want every American 29 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. 30 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: We're going to go through a very tough two weeks 31 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: and then, hopefully, as the experts are predicting, as I 32 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: think a lot of us are predicting, after having studied 33 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 1: it so hard, you're gonna start seeing some real light 34 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: at the end of the tunnel. But this is going 35 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: to be a very painful, very very painful two weeks. 36 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: For weeks, Trump had downplayed the threat of the virus, 37 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: frequently telling reporters that it would simply go away. But 38 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 1: at the Tuesday briefing, Deborah Burke's, the top public health 39 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: official coordinating the Coronavirus Task Force, cited an estimate that 40 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: US deaths would be between one and two hundred thousand, 41 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: even with the most stringent mitigation measures in place. Mitigation 42 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: measures like isolating people in their communities have started to 43 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: show signs of working in some countries. Lockdown steps in 44 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: the Netherlands seem to be having an effect. The number 45 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: of fatalities and hospital admissions in the country is increasingly 46 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 1: slower than would be expected without such measures at a 47 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: Dutch research institute. Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun holding 48 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: meetings remotely from his residence outside Moscow after being exposed 49 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: to a doctor who is later diagnosed with coronavirus, said 50 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: a Kremlin spokesman. The Kremlin says that Putin is regularly 51 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: tested and is fine. Now for today's main story, why 52 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: does a vaccine take so long? Scientists around the world 53 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: are racing to develop a vaccine for COVID nineteen, but 54 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:59,839 Speaker 1: experts have said it could take a year to eight 55 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: months for one to hit the market, and some think 56 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: even eighteen months is conservative. The process for testing and 57 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: approving of vaccine is long and complicated. That can be 58 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: frustrating when the coronavirus is taking more and more lives 59 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: every day. But cutting corners to push a vaccine through 60 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,239 Speaker 1: faster can lead to devastating consequences. We know that because 61 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 1: it's happened before. Jason Gale has more on what it 62 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: takes to develop a working vaccine and just how close 63 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: we are to finding one for the virus. Today we 64 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: met with the big great pharmaceutical companies and they're really 65 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: working hard and they're working smart, and we had some 66 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: We had a great meeting today with a lot of 67 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: the great companies, and they can have vaccines, I think 68 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: relatively soon, and they're gonna have something that makes you better, 69 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: and that's gonna actually take place, we think even sooner. 70 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: So it's a lot of good things are happening. But 71 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: we have strong quarters. And you could be forgiven for 72 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: thinking we already have a vaccine for the coronavirus, and 73 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 1: actually that's sort of true. There are several, but there 74 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: are only in the experimental stages. Healthy adults were immunized 75 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: with an investigational vaccine in Seattle in mid March. These 76 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: volunteers are due for a second shot in the upper 77 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: arm in a week or so. It's part of clinical 78 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: research funded by the National Institutes of Health that will 79 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: continue for twelve months, which means it will take more 80 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: than a year to fully evaluate the safety and efficacy 81 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: of the vaccine candidate. And there's a good reason for 82 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: not cutting any corners. No one knows exactly how serious 83 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: this threat could be. Nevertheless, we cannot afford jadaka chance 84 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: with the health of our nation. In nineteen seventy six, 85 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: a late winter outbreak of swine flu at a military 86 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: base in Fort Dix, New Jersey, led to fears of 87 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: a devastating pandemic. President Gerald Ford announced him mass vaccination plan. First, 88 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: I am asking the Congress to appropriate a hundred and 89 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: thirty five million dollars for the production of sufficient vaccine 90 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 1: to inoculate every man, woman, and child in the United States. 91 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,799 Speaker 1: Congress passed a liability act that basically indemnified the United 92 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: States government for the safety of the vaccine. A first 93 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: shot was withdrawn over safety concerns, leaving a second. By 94 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: the end of the year, forty million out of some 95 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 1: two hundred million Americans got the JAB. The problem was 96 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: no pandemic appeared, but that second vaccine well. One of 97 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: those who did roll up hers leave was Judy Roberts. 98 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: She was perfectly healthy and active woman when in November 99 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 1: of nineteen seventy six. She took her shot. Two weeks later, 100 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 1: she says she began to feel a numbness starting up 101 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: her legs. I talked about at that time. I said, 102 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 1: I've been under the knees by Friday. Is it keeps 103 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 1: up by the following week? How was totally fair aline. 104 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: It was linked to an immune dysfunction, a disease called 105 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: Giame Bret syndrome. He's Laurie Garrett pullit Surprisemann, science writer 106 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: who covered the story. And so a fair percentage of 107 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: the recipients I mean when I say a fair percentage, 108 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: less than one, but more than the zero that would 109 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: be the norm, came down with giambre, which causes paralysis. 110 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: And you know, it kind of stunned the nation. And 111 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: because there was this giant pot of gold, meaning the 112 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: indemnification that Congress had done, lawyers came out of the 113 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: woodwork from everywhere. And the lawsuits persisted in federal courts 114 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: for well over a decade. And that was a real mess. 115 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: Needless to say, governments and vaccine makers are a lot 116 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,239 Speaker 1: more cautious. In fact, it wasn't unusual for a vaccine 117 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: to take ten years to develop newer technology has helped 118 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: beat up the process, but the real breakthrough came in 119 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: two thousand and fourteen. The World Health Organization was able 120 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: to coordinate clinical trials to test the safety of an 121 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: experimental vaccine for a bowler a parallel study gauge the 122 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 1: optimal dose needed for immunity. It demonstrated a new way 123 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: of truncating early clinical research into just a few months, 124 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: and that meant doctors could begin testing the evowl of 125 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: vaccine and large numbers of people in West Africa just 126 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: six months after the first person was given the shot. 127 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: The brains behind that expedited research and development plan is 128 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: Dr Murray Paul Kenney. She's a veteran vaccinologist who was 129 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: an Assistant Director General at the who. You don't want 130 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: to to confront people with a preparation which is not 131 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: protecting them against the disease. So at months six we 132 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: were able to start the phase three clinical trials in 133 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: several thousand people to test whether easifficacious and the face 134 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 1: turned out was successful. So it took about a year 135 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,599 Speaker 1: for scientists to determine that the candidate a bowl of 136 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: vaccine worked. The vaccine is made by Merken Company. It 137 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 1: was subsequently registered and it's played a huge role in 138 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: containing a more recent bowler outbreak in the Congo and 139 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: Murray Paul's process for fast tracking research during outbreaks informed 140 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: a blueprint that research teams around the world are using 141 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: now for testing not just COVID nineteen vaccines, but also 142 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 1: drug treatments and diagnostics. Already, two candidate vaccines for COVID 143 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: nineteen are being studied in humans. Besides the one that 144 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Maderna 145 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 1: are developing, there's a trial and a way of a 146 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 1: vaccine in China. In addition, the WHO accounts fifty two 147 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 1: other experimental immunizations in preclinical study. Here's Murray Paul again, 148 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: and when they start king to try, they will need 149 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: most likely a year to be sure that this vaccine 150 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: work and to be able to start choosing people. Murray 151 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,319 Speaker 1: Paul retired from the w h O in two thousand 152 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: and seventeen, and it's back working as a director of 153 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: research for in the French National Health Research Organization. She's 154 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: also on a pandemic committee advising French President Emmanuel Macron. 155 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:18,719 Speaker 1: She says the time it will take to develop a 156 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 1: vaccine for the coronavirus. Means we need to do as 157 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: much as we can now to slow its spread and 158 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: to find drug treatments. But what if there was already 159 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: a safe and inexpensive vaccine on the market to blunt 160 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: the pandemic. Well maybe there is. Vacillus kalmic gerin or 161 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 1: BCG is the name of the tuberculosis vaccine that's been 162 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: around for a century. It's safe, it's inexpensive, and we 163 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: give it to one and thirty million newborns a year, 164 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: mostly in countries with the lung diseases still a major 165 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: health problem. But the shot isn't us to use to 166 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: prevent TB. It has some off target benefits, and it's 167 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: a common immunotherapy for early stage bladder cancer. It also 168 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: seeks to train the body's first line immune defense to 169 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: better fight infections. Scientists are seeing if it can be 170 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: effectively repurposed to fight COVID nineteen, studying with healthcare workers. 171 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: As you know, it's probably going to take many months 172 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: before a specific vaccine for COVID nineteen is developed, and 173 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: in the meantime, we need to think of every possible 174 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: way that we can protect healthcare workers, who of course 175 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: are very high risk and it's going to be particular 176 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: need to reduce the amount of time that our healthcare 177 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: workers are absent. This is Professor Nigel Curtis. He's had 178 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: of infectious diseases research at the Murdoch Children's Research Institute 179 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: in Melbourne. He's also head of the Infectious Diseases unit 180 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: at the city's Royal Children's Hospital. Staff they're volunteered to 181 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: get the BCG vaccine this week in a randomized controlled 182 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: try involving four thousand healthcare workers. Even people who got 183 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: the shot as an infant are eligible to participate. That's 184 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: because any beneficial off target effects of the vaccine are 185 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: probably lost with time. Miragel says, we will follow our 186 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: participants for the following six months or how the long 187 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: coronavirus lasts in Australia, and we will compare those who 188 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: didn't didn't get the BCG vaccine to see where the 189 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: first of all, they actually developed symptoms of COVID nineteen 190 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: and if they do, how severe those symptoms are, and 191 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: that will enable us to see whether the vaccine and 192 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 1: both reduces the number of people who have become affected 193 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 1: by the virus and whether it can reduce the impact 194 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: of that so particularly not only how un well they are, 195 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: but how long that means they have to be off work, 196 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: which of course is the very important thing for healthcare workers. 197 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: Similar researches underway in the Netherlands, and other testing sites 198 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 1: are planned in Australia and possibly the US. The Studies 199 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: Data Monitoring Committee will review the results after three months 200 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 1: to look for any signs at the approach is working. 201 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: Nigel says he's optimistic, but there are no guarantees. The 202 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: only way to find out is by doing a clinical trial. 203 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: That's it for the Prognosis Daily Edition. For more on 204 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: the coronavirus crisis from one bureaus around the world, visit 205 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus. If you appreciate the podcast, 206 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 1: please take a moment to us and leave us a 207 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 1: review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to help more listeners 208 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is hosted 209 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: by me Laura Carlson. The show is produced by me 210 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 1: tophor foreheas, Jordan Gaspoure, and Magnus Hendrickson. Reporting by Jason Gale. 211 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Francesca Levi 212 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. 213 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.