1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Ten year treasury yield 7 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: now down back below one point five percent at one 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: point four percent. That spiking yields yesterday really spooked markets 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: and I think got some people to kind of think 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: about valuations here, uh, think about asset allocation here. Let's 11 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: get the lay of the land with Jim Bianco. He's 12 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: a president and founder Bianco Research. He's also a contributor 13 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,639 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Opinion based in Chicago. Jim, thanks so much 14 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: for joining us here. What do you make of the 15 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: action over the past couple of days, again, having yields 16 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: shoot up here and we saw a lot of commodities flash, 17 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,279 Speaker 1: maybe some inflations of inflation signs. What do you make 18 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: about what's going on? I think what you just said 19 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: is right inflation signs. I've been trying to say that 20 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: there is two different words that we need to keep 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: our mind on, and that is reflation, which you hear 22 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: a lot of an inflation if people use those words interchangeably, 23 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: but they shouldn't because there are two different concepts. If 24 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 1: interest rates are rising because of reflation, that is real 25 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: growth is coming back, earnings are coming back, people are 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,759 Speaker 1: getting jobs. Then Chairman Paul is right, it reflects higher 27 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: rates reflect a confidence in the economy. But if we're 28 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: crossing over to that, it is inflation, and that is 29 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: your loss of purchasing power. Your dollar in a year 30 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: will buy you less than a dollar now if you 31 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: own a fixed income security by the name fixed income, 32 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: you don't get any more dollars in a year. You 33 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: get the same number, but it buys less. You don't 34 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: want to touch those securities, and that's why rates could 35 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: be going up and it would be very bad for 36 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: the stock market. So I think we're canting this push 37 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: pull is to yes, we know the economies could come 38 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: back strong this year. That's not the issue. The issue 39 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: is how much of that's going to be inflation, how 40 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 1: much of that's going to be real wealth. And with 41 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: the surgeon commodities, as you've mentioned in other measures. People 42 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: are getting more and more worried that we're going to 43 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: see something we haven't seen in twenty five years, and 44 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: that is an actual inflation boom. Jim, I've been thinking 45 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: about you all morning, and not just exchange messages earlier today, 46 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,959 Speaker 1: but I've been thinking about your read on what we've 47 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: seen in the bond market. You know, there's a question 48 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: about whether it's just thin trading, or whether it's potentially 49 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 1: leverage positions that are getting unwound, you know, convexity hedging, 50 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: you name it, technical factor, or whether this is actually 51 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: a belief in inflation that perhaps isn't being reflected in 52 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: a tips market, in a in a securities market that 53 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: is distorted by thin liquidity and a whole host of 54 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: other issues. Can you just what's going on? Yeah? So, 55 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: so two things. Um, There is the treasury real rates 56 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: market or TIPS securities, Treasury inflay and protective securities, and 57 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: we look at the difference between those securities and nominal 58 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: rates to get what's called the inflation break even rate 59 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: as an indicator of the future of inflation. The biggest 60 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: buyer in that market is the FED. They have bought 61 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: more bonds in the last year tips bonds than have 62 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: been issued, and the amount of outstanding for the public 63 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: is actually declining. That's how many they bought. So my 64 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: point there is they've got a giant footprint all over 65 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: that market, and I've been doubting the measures that we've 66 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: been getting out of that market. So that is an 67 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: inflation indicator that people said, look, there's no problem there. Yeah, 68 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: but it could also be because the Fed stomping all 69 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: over it. But to your other point about what's going 70 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: on in the bond market, if you're not a bond 71 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: geek like I am, and I'm gonna put you in 72 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: the bond, yeah, and you look at yields and you go, oh, 73 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: they're on their way to one and a half, and 74 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: some people say they might be a two by the 75 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: end of the year. I'm an equity investor. I own 76 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: a business. Who cares it's two percent, it's not a deal. 77 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: And it goes to two and a half, it's not 78 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: a big deal. You know, if your bond investor, it 79 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: matters a lot because you could wind up with with 80 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: total return losses that could be very, very big. If 81 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 1: you've owned thirty year bonds this year, you're down on 82 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: the year on the thirty year bond one of the 83 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: worst first two months of a year in history. And 84 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: if you're buying bonds on leverage, because you can do 85 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: that through the repo market, you can leverage your positions 86 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: all you want. You could have catastrophic losses. If we 87 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: have a two percent yield coming in the next few months, 88 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 1: and if the bond market is in a bad place, 89 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: all capital markets are in a bad place as well too, 90 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: So it's not a worry. I don't think at this 91 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: point that you know two percent on the tenure Treasury 92 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: is going to crush the economy with super high interest rates. 93 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: War is two percent could create havoc in the credit markets, 94 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: and that could hurt the economy. The ability to raise 95 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: money ye to do two things that you're you're comfortable 96 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,799 Speaker 1: with doing that could come into question. We're not there now, 97 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: but we've got to stop doing this, so we don't 98 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: go there. All right, I'm gonna annoy Paul and ask 99 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: a question that's in the weeds. But you mentioned this 100 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: tips market. You mentioned this sort of inflation expectations market, 101 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: and this is really key because a lot of people 102 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: keep pointing to it to show that actually inflation expectations 103 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 1: are going down over the long term even as treasure 104 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: yields go up. This doesn't make sense in a lot 105 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 1: of ways. Are you saying the inflation expectations as measured 106 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: by the market are highly inaccurate based on the distortions, 107 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 1: based on the amount of that market that's been dominated, 108 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: that's been hoovered up by the Federal Reserve. Yes, And 109 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: I'll even back up one step further. Inflation expectations is 110 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: a predictor of where inflation is gonna go. We've had 111 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: these markets for twenty years have not been very good 112 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: at all. They have not been a very good indicator 113 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: of what actually happens in the beginning. Now you throw 114 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: in the fact that the largest single buyer is the 115 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve in these markets, and you've seen real interest 116 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: rates falling all year long. If the economy is going 117 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: to boom at five, six or seven percent, which would 118 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: be if you believe Goldman's forecast, seven percent real, that 119 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: would be the fastest yearly growth in forty years. If 120 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 1: we had that happened this year, real rates should be 121 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: rising in that kind of environment. But the falling, or 122 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: at least the tips market has been falling. Why because 123 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: the fit is relentlessly buying these every day. In fact, 124 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: they publish every day how much they buy, and it's 125 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: in the several billions every single day that they buy 126 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: of this market. So I'll quote the British economist Charles Goodheart, 127 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: he's a good friend to John Farrell's. When a measure, 128 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 1: when a measure becomes a target, it seeks being a measure. 129 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 1: Will look at Yes, we're looking at tips as a 130 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: measure of where the market things inflation is. But if 131 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: the FETE is targeting it by all of their buying, 132 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: it's no longer a measure. So that's what I've been saying. 133 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: I think conceptually it's right. You know, over the last 134 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: few months, tips break evens have been going up. But 135 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: when you want to get into the weeds and say 136 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: well they picked three weeks ago and this and that, 137 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: be careful now because you got that big footprint of 138 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: the FEDS stomping all over that market, and it might 139 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: be giving signals that aren't the measure that you think 140 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: they are. Jim Bianco, thank you so much for being 141 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: with us, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. It's always wonderful 142 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: having you on Honestly, I was actually really looking forward 143 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: to hearing what he had to say because he always 144 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: has such nuanced views pairing but the technical Paul, with 145 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: the fundamental and really that tips market concept. I know 146 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: it's in the weeds, but it's really important. It is. 147 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: And we hear a lot of strategists and a lot 148 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: of fun managers talk about that tip tips market and uh, 149 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: you know it's interesting that you know, kind of bringing 150 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: in also the FED buying and how that's impacting the 151 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: market and rates across the rake curve. Yeah, honestly fascinating discussion. 152 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: And we want to turn our attention to the medical 153 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: advances that we have seen which have been turbo charged 154 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 1: by the pandemic. And Paul, I do think that one 155 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: emerging aspect of the pandemic is all the money and 156 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: all the attention on the need for biopharmaceutical investment as 157 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: well as research and joining us now is someone very 158 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: much on the forefront of that. Dr Steve Cutler, chief 159 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: executive officer of Icon PLC, based in Dublin. Just to 160 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: give you a sense, Icon had a tie up with 161 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: p r A Health Sciences. It was the largest healthcare 162 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: transaction deal this year. Twelve billion dollars, and both companies 163 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: help basically run the clinical trials for drug makers and 164 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: medical device developers, and they've been on the front lines 165 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: of some of these medical advancements. Dr Cutler, thank you 166 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Can you give us 167 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: a sense of just how much the pandemic has turbo 168 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: charged what really has been in the works for a while, 169 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: which is investment in biopharmaceutical development. Yeah, Good morning, Paul, 170 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: Good morning Lisa. The pandemics certainly has been obviously a 171 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: tragic event, you know, across our society, but there have 172 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: been some silver linings since, at least for us in 173 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: our business, and the way in which we've run clinical 174 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: trials now has has fundamentally changed in terms of approval times, 175 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: in terms of the types of technology we're able to 176 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: apply to running clinical trials, and quite frankly, in terms 177 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: of the awareness of society of clinical trials and the 178 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: benefits of clinical trials. We think that all plays into 179 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 1: a very positive environment for our organization going forward, and 180 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: hence one of the reasons that we've we've we've made 181 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: this union with pr A Okay, doctor, this is a 182 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 1: big deal for you guys. Per A is a big 183 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,199 Speaker 1: company as well. Talked us about the real drivers, the 184 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: strategic drivers behind putting these two companies together. Here. Yeah, 185 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: there's a couple of them. Certainly, we've seen we've been 186 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: competing with pra A for for a number of years now, 187 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: twenty thirty years since we've been in existence, and they've 188 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: been a very strong competitor there and a very a 189 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: very good competitor over that time. And and they're very 190 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: strong cultural fits. So so when you bring too large 191 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: people related businesses together, the culture, the focus, the core 192 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: values of the organizations are very important. We see a 193 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: lot of similarities there. We've made an assessment really over 194 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: the last few years in terms of our other competitors 195 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: and the fit we had with p r A really 196 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: really really brought them to the four in terms of 197 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 1: their benefits and the advantages. There's really a couple of them. 198 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: For us as a large organizer, we moved from being 199 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: we were six, they were seven, or vice versa in 200 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 1: terms of our league table in revenues in the organiz 201 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: we now move as a combined organization to number two 202 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: in the industry. So we are and we're number one 203 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: in a number of the segments. So we are we 204 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 1: have the scale now to really deliver innovative solutions and 205 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: creative solutions for for our customers across the globe. We 206 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: have the depth and the breadth of resources, and that's 207 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: very important in the clinical trials game because we run 208 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: trials all over the world in all sorts of different 209 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: therapeutic areas. The other component is the technology side of things. 210 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: As I said, through the pandemic, we've realized that applying 211 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 1: the new technology is the ability to access patient data 212 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: remotely and to monitor patient data remotely in a confidential 213 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 1: and private manner allows us to be much more efficient. 214 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: And as we as we run those sort of trials 215 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,319 Speaker 1: and we run what we call more decentralized clinical trials 216 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: where patients don't have to go to sites we can 217 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: we can monitor patients at home. We have those sort 218 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: of services. Pr A bring a mobile health platform to that. 219 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: We can offer a really compelling vision in that space 220 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: for for our customers, so we can be much more efficient, 221 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:36,079 Speaker 1: I believe going forward. And then finally for our shareholders, 222 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: there's significant value in this in this union. And you 223 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: know from an accretion point of view, from a long 224 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 1: term revenue and the sustainable growth perspective. Dr Cutler, It's 225 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: been a real write in twelve months for a lot 226 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: of people around the world, and I'm trying to find 227 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: silver linings every day for my children, and one of 228 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: them that I try to lean upon is that perhaps 229 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: we'll get biopharmaceutical research that are cure the cold, or 230 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 1: cure cancer, cure all sorts of elm ends that we 231 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: have with us today. Do you see those kinds of 232 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: seismic advancements that are made because of the money put 233 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: behind my pharmaceutical research as a result of the pandemic? 234 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: So much? Are we're going to cure cancer because of 235 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: the I think I know, I think we're all very 236 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: focused on that. That's a very big part of our portfolio. 237 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: But what we what we have seen is a real 238 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: focus on clinical trials and the ability to get clinical 239 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: trials moving much faster and a much less bureaucratic fashion 240 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: than we've seen in the past. Of what I'm seeing 241 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 1: is it would be much more efficient going forward in 242 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: the way we run clinical trials, whether they be decentralized 243 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 1: or the more traditional And so what we see is 244 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: our sponsors will have more opportunity to put more drugs 245 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 1: through the pipeline, so to speak, to have more shots 246 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: on goal to get pharmaceuticals and get good drugs to market, 247 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:58,079 Speaker 1: whether they be cancer drugs, whether they be pandemic or vaccines, 248 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: whether they be other other drugs. That's what we see. 249 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: The pandemic has really caused us to rethink the way 250 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: we do things and know that we can do things 251 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: in very different ways. We were involved in the large 252 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 1: Visor biointech trial that was one of our big, big studies. 253 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: We were able to get that done so much faster 254 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 1: than we normally do with these clinical trials, and so 255 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: that that really lays the groundwork, I think for a 256 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 1: very very strong future in our business. Dr Cutler, thank 257 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. We appreciate that. Dr 258 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: Stephen Cutler. He's the chief executive officer of Icon PLC. 259 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: They are based in Dublin. Just announced this week a 260 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: big deal, the biggest healthcare transactions so far this year, 261 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: Icon acquiring p r A Health Sciences. That's a company 262 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Total transaction value of twelve 263 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 1: billion dollars um and you know Lisa's As Dr Cutler mentioned, 264 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: it was really great to see how some of these 265 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: how quickly these tests and these trials were done. I 266 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: gotta say, can you tell where my mind's at? And basically, 267 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: what is it done? What is it over? Can we 268 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: end the pandemic? I mean, how many times gonna answer 269 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: that question from my kids before I start passing it 270 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: on to every guest that comes on, especially people on 271 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 1: the front lines, to know the answer. That's where we 272 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: all are. And the good news, Lisa is the metrics 273 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: are really trending in the right direction. So that is 274 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 1: certainly good news at a very difficult year. Yes, it 275 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: is that time of year again where we hear from 276 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: Warren Buffett and his faith will parse every single word 277 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: he has to say. Cat chick Lynsky follows Warren Buffett follows, 278 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: the finance industry, follows the insurance and Street is really 279 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: the ace on this. She's from Bloomberg News. Cat, we 280 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: haven't really heard that much from Mr Buffett over the 281 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: last year with all that's been going on. What do 282 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: you expect is see and hear and read When we 283 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: do get his letter, well, I think it means it's 284 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: going to pack more of a punch, because you know, yeah, 285 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: we heard from him last May at his annual meetings. 286 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: But during that meeting he sort of expressed caution about 287 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: the whole situation, about the pandemic and especially about the 288 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: econom outcomes from it. So I think its shareholders are 289 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: really looking to this letter to sort of provide some clarity, 290 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: because you know, the letter does describe how Berkshire did 291 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 1: over the past year. But people really turned to Buffett 292 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: too as kind of a business leader and you know, 293 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: a successful investor, and they want to know his thoughts 294 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: on lots of issues, including the presidential election, in which 295 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: he was really actually quite silent about, and the race 296 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: protests that swept the nation last year, and even more 297 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: investing type issues like the Reddit mania. You know, depending 298 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: on when he put pen to paper um and actually 299 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: wrote this letter, I think people will be interested to 300 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: hear if if he has thoughts on kind of where 301 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: all that stock market speculations stand. Well, this ninety year 302 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: old chief executive officer, the Oracle of Omaha, is one 303 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: of the most famed investors ever to hit Wall Street, 304 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: and yet I do wonder, especially as he takes a 305 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: less of a role at the company, how much import 306 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: his views have at this point given the other companies 307 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 1: that have sort of filled the void and entered the front, 308 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: the front running seat in terms of influence. I mean, 309 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: has this letter waned with respect to how it's perceived 310 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: on Wall Street? Well so, I I you know, I 311 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: asked that question to these investors who follow him religiously, 312 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: like why do you keep reading it? Because obviously, you know, 313 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: you can look back at his letters at the dot 314 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: com bubble and that sort of gives you a sense 315 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: of what he might think about with you know, the 316 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: current stock market um situation we're seeing. But I do 317 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: think that investors still look to him because he does 318 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: have this historical perspective and if you've ever watched him 319 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: speak at these events, I mean you can tell he 320 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: really has an incredible memory, an incredible recall of everything 321 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: he's read and seen and done, and I think that 322 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: does lend his words still some weight. You know, he 323 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: can really he can take all that you know, we've 324 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: had to kind of ingest over the past year in 325 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: terms of the news and what's happening, and and he 326 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: can sort of step back and say, you know, compared 327 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: to his you know, ninety years of history of being 328 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: on this planet, here's kind of you know, take on it. 329 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: So alright, Cat, one of the things that people really 330 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 1: are the last several years have really focused on is 331 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: what to do with all that cash. I'm looking at 332 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: the f A function on the Bloomberg terminal for Berkshire Hathway, 333 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: and you know, four hundred over four undred billion dollars 334 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 1: in cash on the balance. Yes, there's a little bit 335 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: of depth, super super cash rich here. What's the expectation here? 336 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 1: Can he put that money to work? Yeah? So we 337 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: actually have closer to a hundred and forty five billion 338 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: dollars of cash to work, which is actually close to 339 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: a record for Berkshire, and it is hard. I mean, 340 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: you know, he needs to find bigger deals, bigger stock 341 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: purchases that actually move the needle and kind of generate 342 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: even higher returns for the conglomerate. And when you're you know, 343 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: fighting off private equity firms who are bidding for the 344 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 1: same company you are, and now the kind of spack boom, 345 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: I think it's made it a lot more challenging for 346 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: Bershire to say, you know, here, here we are as 347 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: a clear you know, buyer of these companies. And so 348 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: I think that's why we've seen trends like he was 349 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 1: a massive purchaser of stock, at least through the first 350 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: nine months. It's one of his biggest years ever for 351 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: repurchasing stock, which for most companies is so routine, but 352 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: for Bucket, I think it really underscores this point. But 353 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,959 Speaker 1: he's he is willing to expand his horizons if he 354 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,919 Speaker 1: needs to to find ways to deploy that cash. But 355 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: obviously he would love that elephant size deal to come around. 356 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: One thing I'm curious to hear is he's been really 357 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: adamant about American exceptionalism and the growth of the economy, 358 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 1: talking about how lucky it is to be born in 359 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: America and the growth of the nation uh continuing, and 360 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: he sort of has had complete faith in that for 361 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: a long time. He's been right to a large degree. 362 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: And yet as he tries to diversify his investments, I'm 363 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: curious to know whether he will change his tune at 364 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 1: all when we see some of the dynamism coming out 365 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: of other places in the world. What's your sense of 366 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: that based on the rhetoric out of Warren Buffett's shop, 367 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: out of his colleagues, UH, just generally at a Berkshire Hathaway, 368 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: I do agree like He's always been very optimistic about America, 369 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: and I think that will continue. I think we'll probably 370 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: still hear from him about, you know, the positive attributes 371 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 1: he thinks of this country and our systems and how 372 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: they work. Obviously, it'll probably be tempered with, you know, 373 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: how do you view that in terms of the riots 374 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: we saw at the capital and some of the other 375 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: stresses we've had in this democracy over the past year. 376 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 1: But I do think he is more willing to venture abroad, 377 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: and we saw that last year where he piled the 378 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: billion dollars into Japanese trading house stocks. And I think 379 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,199 Speaker 1: this shows not only the influence of his deputies. I 380 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: think they do have an influence on him kind of 381 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: expanding through horizons, but I think it shows that if 382 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: Berkshire is really going to be able to deploy its 383 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 1: funds successfully and generate these higher returns, they're going to 384 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: have to start looking abroad. They're going to have to 385 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,360 Speaker 1: figure out different economies and these different types of companies, 386 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: like these trading companies in Japan, and figure out which 387 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 1: ones are actually gonna fit because Berkshire just is fishing 388 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: in too small of a pond right now. Cat. Thanks 389 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: very much. We really appreciated Cat Chiglinsky, financial reporter for 390 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, giving us the latest on Bertrad Hathaway, Hathaway, 391 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: Warren Buffett. Again, it's that time of the year where 392 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: we will hear from the Oracle of Omaha with his 393 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: annual investment letters. Cat was mentioning lots to parse through there. 394 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 1: All right, let's turn our attention to fiscal stimulus. It 395 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: looks like the House is scheduled to take up the 396 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: stimulus bill on the floor of the Chamber today, with 397 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: passage expected late in the evening or potentially Saturday. Let's 398 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 1: get the latest on what may or may not be 399 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 1: included in that bill. We do that with Eric Wasson, 400 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Congressional reporter. Eric, thanks so much for joining us. 401 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: Talk to us about what are the notable inclusions and 402 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 1: maybe exclusions from this one point nine trillion dollar fiscal 403 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: stimulus bill. Well, you know the big debate here in 404 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours through about minimum wave provision. 405 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,439 Speaker 1: That was the sort of the lightning rod division in 406 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,040 Speaker 1: the Senate and a Senate official, obscure Senate official, a 407 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: seen up parliamentary and rule that they cannot do it. 408 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 1: Through this budget bill. So that's leading to a lot 409 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: of conflict here. House progressives are really urging the Vice 410 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: President to possibly try to overrule that something she can 411 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: do with the right House is reluctant to do. The 412 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: House will include that provision in the bility passed tonight 413 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: probably around eight or nine o'clock. However, in the Senate 414 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: there's now talk of doing a tax penalty to try 415 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,120 Speaker 1: to force large corporations to raise that wage. So there's 416 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: a lot going on there. That's the main thing that's 417 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 1: up for change. But as far as the main provision 418 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: that people know about, the fourteen hundred dollar stimulus checks 419 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: for those making lessons seventy five thousand dollars a year, 420 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: that's pretty much locked in as far as I can tell. 421 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: That's in the House bill and likely to remain in 422 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: the Senate bill. We're also looking attention of unemployment benefits 423 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: and a child tax credit expansion temporarily. So can we 424 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: get a sense of how committed Democrats are as a whole, 425 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: and I realize it's not a cohesive group right now, 426 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 1: how committed they are to getting a minimum wage increase through, 427 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: especially now that it would have to tie a two, 428 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: a tax increase or some other provision that would be 429 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: more directly tied to the deficit. Well, you know, it's 430 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 1: just it's just not really clear if they're going to 431 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: all be on board. I mean putting a tax increase. 432 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,439 Speaker 1: There's a very tiny international tax loophole closer in the 433 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: bill now, turning two billion dollars of making it a 434 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 1: very large descliament of five percent payroll tax on companies. 435 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,120 Speaker 1: That's very easy for Republicans to demondize. And the portrays 436 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: at tax increase the middle of a pandemic that caused 437 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,399 Speaker 1: some heartburn for moderate Democrats. So this hasn't really been 438 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: shopped around, put forward by Bernie Sanders and on Widen's 439 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: progressives on the left, and the Shumer is now weighing it, 440 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 1: but you know, we don't really know yet if moderates 441 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 1: are going to go for that. Eric, give us a 442 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 1: sense of timing here. We're getting very close to, you know, 443 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 1: the point in March where a lot of these benefits 444 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 1: from the original or the last round of fiscal stilling 445 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 1: to start to expire for a lot of people. So 446 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: time is of the essence here. Yeah, that's right. The 447 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: expanded unemployment benefits of for gig workers long term on 448 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 1: the board and those getting that three our plus up 449 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 1: from the federal government to their state benefits does expire 450 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: begin to expire March four, team, You know, the Senate 451 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: has this two more weeks to act. That's probably enough 452 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 1: time to get it done. Although the wrinkle was a 453 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: minimum wage is going to cause a lot of negotiating 454 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 1: and conversations over the weekend early on. If they can 455 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: resolve that, the Senate could easily pass it on the 456 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 1: floor within two weeks. Is a special budget procedures, so 457 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: the Republicans can't really drag it out. Do we have 458 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,160 Speaker 1: a sense of how much momentum there would be after 459 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: this bill gets passed, and the expectation is it will 460 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: get passed by mid March, how much momentum there is 461 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: to get working on that infrastructure bill to possibly get 462 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: something passed again later in the year. Yeah, that's a 463 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: story that Chris Confident and I I probably did on 464 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 1: the terminal last week. Their infrastructure has a lot of momentum. 465 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 1: You know, that could be a Biparson villa, and in 466 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: fact they can't risk necessarily use this budget procedure for 467 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 1: infrastructure for several reasons, including the fact that's the long 468 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 1: term spending of proposal. It goes beyond ten years and 469 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: violate the Bird rule in the Senate. But there's a 470 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 1: lot of talk among Progressive of adding a draft back 471 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: of other things, some expansion of Obama tire to elder tire, childcare, 472 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: and so forth, and that's going to make it more 473 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: controversial and make it potentially more difficulty. All right, So 474 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: one thing, I just want to get a sense for 475 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: our listeners in the metro New York area and some 476 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 1: other high tax areas state and local tax. Uh, that 477 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,880 Speaker 1: issue that's not in this bility hit home for you. Yeah, 478 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: as I start to do my taxes, it's just just 479 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: goes crazy that that was left out, that that was proposed, 480 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: proposed by you know, was proposed by some members, especially 481 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: the Northeast delegations, but that did not make it into 482 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: this field. And you know, it's obviously could be a 483 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: candidate for the second round. There's there's a lot of 484 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: talk of doing major tax legislation in the second round, 485 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: including an increasing capital gains tax for those making more 486 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 1: than one million dollars a year to equalize the rates 487 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: with ordinary and comic etcetera. So we send ull Be 488 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: a large tax package there you might never of a 489 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: shot of getting that salt deduction again. Eric Wasson, thank 490 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Eric quass and Bloomberg 491 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: Congressional reporter joining us on congressional matters. Plus the salt text, 492 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 1: which is near and dear. Yeah, we need the salt text. 493 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: Gotta take care of that, and we need the gateway 494 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 1: and the gateway. Since you have left the shows, certain 495 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,879 Speaker 1: things never changed that. I was about to say, have 496 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 1: you been to the Mall of America yet? How do 497 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 1: you feel about that? I know how you feel about that. 498 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: Coming up, we've got more talking about municipal finance to 499 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: get some of these local areas backed up and running. 500 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,159 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 501 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever 502 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 503 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller three. Put on false Sweeney I'm on 504 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,439 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always 505 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio