WEBVTT - It Could Happen Here Weekly 254 0:00:01.730 --> 0:00:02.910 Call zone media. 0:00:03.350 --> 0:00:03.990 Hey, everybody. 0:00:04.210 --> 0:00:06.100 Robert Evans here, and I wanted to let you know 0:00:06.380 --> 0:00:09.860 this is a compilation episode. So every episode of the 0:00:09.900 --> 0:00:13.680 week that just happened is here in one convenient and 0:00:13.740 --> 0:00:17.000 with somewhat less ads package for you to listen to 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:19.330 in a long stretch if you want. If you've been 0:00:19.370 --> 0:00:21.370 listening to the episodes every day this week, there's going 0:00:21.390 --> 0:00:23.430 to be nothing new here for you, but you can 0:00:23.450 --> 0:00:24.410 make your own decisions. 0:00:28.870 --> 0:00:33.750 Welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm Garrison Davis, joined 0:00:33.810 --> 0:00:34.850 by Robert Evans. 0:00:35.250 --> 0:00:35.610 Hello. 0:00:36.340 --> 0:00:40.919 Hello, Garrison Davis. How are you doing today? I'm doing okay. 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:45.519 I'm really, I'm getting prepared to vote. I'm psyching myself up. 0:00:45.540 --> 0:00:48.680 Just like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps told you to do, huh? 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:53.590 I think that's what we want to start with. In general, 0:00:53.630 --> 0:00:56.690 this episode will be kind of going over the midterm 0:00:56.730 --> 0:01:01.330 polls as they are. in early October, kind of what 0:01:01.350 --> 0:01:03.170 we can get a sense of the election about a 0:01:03.210 --> 0:01:05.250 month out, now that we're just a few weeks away 0:01:05.290 --> 0:01:10.140 from the election. But a few weeks ago, the IRGC, 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:13.740 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps... Prince of the Pod. 0:01:15.500 --> 0:01:15.780 Sure. 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:26.000 At this point, man... One bad day, full Stalinist, full Maoist. 0:01:26.459 --> 0:01:31.380 I mean, that's more, it's a slightly different-ist. A few 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:36.530 weeks ago, the IRGC released a 26-page letter, not short. 0:01:36.730 --> 0:01:42.030 Not strong on brevity, the IRGC. Addressed to the American people, 0:01:42.130 --> 0:01:46.229 a spokesperson from the IRGC told Reuters, quote, the American 0:01:46.270 --> 0:01:50.350 people are not knowledgeable about many developments. We believe if 0:01:50.430 --> 0:01:55.690 they knew more, they would think differently and take other decisions, unquote. 0:01:56.330 --> 0:01:58.390 You guys might have more faith in the American people 0:01:58.430 --> 0:01:59.450 than I do at this point. 0:02:00.470 --> 0:02:02.780 The start of the letter and how it's addressed reads, 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.040 to the honorable people of the United States of America, 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:09.280 the scholars, the students, and the members of the media. 0:02:09.300 --> 0:02:12.079 I think that last part is important because at least 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:14.460 some of them know that The American people are not 0:02:14.510 --> 0:02:17.140 reading a 26-page letter. This is going to be mostly 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:19.040 read by journalists. This is going to be read by 0:02:19.139 --> 0:02:22.100 nerds on Twitter. And blue sky, I guess. And nerds 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:22.620 on Twitter. 0:02:23.300 --> 0:02:23.580 Yeah. 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.480 Now, I actually was able to get a short video. 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:29.020 The IRGC also released a short video kind of summarizing 0:02:29.380 --> 0:02:32.940 the letter. And I will play that here for Robert. 0:02:45.770 --> 0:02:48.890 So that's, yeah, that's the special, that's the special video. Yeah, 0:02:48.950 --> 0:02:51.809 that really is. That's something else. So there's a few 0:02:51.850 --> 0:02:54.510 sections before. The bulk of the letter is arguing why 0:02:54.530 --> 0:02:57.710 Iran is the victor in the war, concrete evidence of 0:02:57.730 --> 0:03:00.989 Iran's victory. They have a section on the meaning of, quote, 0:03:01.070 --> 0:03:04.889 death to America. Yeah. Which reads, quote, Death to America 0:03:04.910 --> 0:03:07.390 does not in any way express any ill will toward 0:03:07.410 --> 0:03:10.670 the American people who have themselves suffered through the same oppression. 0:03:11.230 --> 0:03:13.950 Death to America is a prayer for the eradication of 0:03:14.010 --> 0:03:17.190 the diabolical ruling elite whose seat of power is in 0:03:17.230 --> 0:03:19.950 the White House. And the letter goes on to say 0:03:19.990 --> 0:03:22.650 that the RGC and the people of Iran have no 0:03:22.710 --> 0:03:25.960 feeling of hostility toward the American people. And then they ask, 0:03:26.419 --> 0:03:30.239 how can the U.S. be saved? And this is what 0:03:30.300 --> 0:03:32.500 leads to the bulk of the letter saying, which is 0:03:32.540 --> 0:03:36.450 essentially trying to get Americans to vote harder. Oh, which... 0:03:37.290 --> 0:03:38.910 You're finished, fascism. 0:03:39.830 --> 0:03:40.270 Oh, man. 0:03:40.290 --> 0:03:42.970 But there's also a few other interesting kind of like 0:03:43.950 --> 0:03:47.630 name drops here. Quote, God will come to the aid 0:03:47.650 --> 0:03:50.670 of the American people if they decide to change course. Thankfully, 0:03:50.780 --> 0:03:52.980 Americans are waking up to the truth. Over the past 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.900 two years, Americans have participated in numerous demonstrations in cities 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:59.060 across the U.S. to express their outrage at Israel's genocidal 0:03:59.180 --> 0:03:59.980 actions in Gaza. 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:01.200 Moreover. 0:04:01.770 --> 0:04:06.250 The No Kings rallies that swept across the U.S. last 0:04:06.270 --> 0:04:09.710 year were a nation- Okay, IRGC. Were a nation, right? 0:04:10.390 --> 0:04:14.710 Repudiation of the burgeoning autocratic tendencies within the American government. 0:04:15.130 --> 0:04:17.750 These powerful manifestations of collective action are evidence of a 0:04:17.770 --> 0:04:23.680 national awakening spreading through the U.S. Polls show that the 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:26.300 majority of Americans, especially younger Americans, no longer wish to 0:04:26.339 --> 0:04:30.200 be complicit in their government's crimes against other nations, unquote. 0:04:30.910 --> 0:04:32.950 Part of what makes this so funny to me is 0:04:33.750 --> 0:04:37.770 how diametrically opposed it is to the messaging coming out 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:40.900 of like, you know, U.S. based like Maoists or like anti-imperialists, 0:04:40.940 --> 0:04:44.039 you know? Oh yeah, like the U.S. far left. Absolutely. 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:47.599 They're so much, so much more generous to the American people. 0:04:49.900 --> 0:04:53.020 Yeah, that's something that's really, that's really funny to me. 0:04:53.500 --> 0:04:57.260 As for the vote harder section, let's read one paragraph here. 0:04:58.190 --> 0:05:00.530 Your response may be that you do not accept these 0:05:00.770 --> 0:05:03.390 atrocious actions, but are powerless to do anything about them. 0:05:03.910 --> 0:05:07.150 This answer, however, is not acceptable. You are the ones 0:05:07.210 --> 0:05:10.630 who empower with your votes. The government had allowed to 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.440 do what it wants. Although American politicians often win your 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:16.720 votes through deception of false promises, as Trump did, you 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:18.839 can change the makeup of the government if you apply 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:21.440 the criteria for good leadership in choosing the people you 0:05:21.500 --> 0:05:22.400 vote into office. 0:05:23.020 --> 0:05:25.730 See, guys, I gotta tell you, it's not that easy. 0:05:28.339 --> 0:05:30.679 First off, I've voted every time I've gotten the chance, 0:05:30.740 --> 0:05:32.860 pretty much. I don't think I've ever empowered anyone with 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:33.659 my votes. 0:05:33.900 --> 0:05:37.830 You know, it's one of those kind of Adam Curtis moments. Yeah. 0:05:37.850 --> 0:05:43.300 We have the IRGC advocating the ideal of electoral politics, 0:05:43.540 --> 0:05:46.580 something that does not exist really in Iran either. 0:05:47.020 --> 0:05:50.020 It's consistent with there's that one famous interview with an 0:05:50.060 --> 0:05:53.040 Iranian cleric where he's like, as Alexander de Tocqueville, who 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:57.339 I'm sure all Americans have read once said, he's like, guys, 0:05:57.839 --> 0:05:59.940 you are way overestimating us. 0:06:02.900 --> 0:06:05.940 So, yeah, if you have any sort of anti-imperialist impulses 0:06:06.430 --> 0:06:10.450 as per as per the IRGC, get your voter registration 0:06:10.570 --> 0:06:11.330 up to date. 0:06:12.110 --> 0:06:14.910 Get your voter registration card and get out there. 0:06:15.900 --> 0:06:21.050 If you're in line, stay in line. That's right. So 0:06:21.310 --> 0:06:23.110 part of why this letter was released is because it 0:06:23.150 --> 0:06:26.029 is just a few weeks away from the midterms. We 0:06:26.050 --> 0:06:29.049 are less than a month away from the 2026 midterm elections. 0:06:29.390 --> 0:06:30.590 And so I thought we should do a little update 0:06:30.630 --> 0:06:32.210 on polling and take a look at some of the 0:06:32.330 --> 0:06:33.210 close races. 0:06:34.089 --> 0:06:34.330 Sure. 0:06:34.610 --> 0:06:37.660 And let's start by talking about the current makeup of Congress. 0:06:37.940 --> 0:06:40.620 Right now in the House, 218 seats are held by Republicans, 0:06:40.620 --> 0:06:47.060 214 by Democrats, and there's one independent who caucuses with 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:52.260 the Republicans. 218 seats are what's needed for a majority. 0:06:52.339 --> 0:06:56.420 This has been a very small majority that the Republicans 0:06:56.460 --> 0:06:58.260 have been able to hold onto in the House these 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:02.820 past few years. The Cook Political Report is forecasting that 0:07:02.850 --> 0:07:06.049 the Dems will pick up around five to 15 seats 0:07:06.270 --> 0:07:08.969 in the midterms, likely putting them in charge of the 0:07:09.010 --> 0:07:14.690 House with anywhere between 220 to 230 seats. And this 0:07:14.830 --> 0:07:18.200 lead in polling and their projected victory has only grown 0:07:18.380 --> 0:07:21.060 these past few weeks. It's not becoming a closer race 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:22.080 for the Republicans. 0:07:22.220 --> 0:07:26.620 No, things don't look good for them because gasoline costs 0:07:26.770 --> 0:07:28.070 all of the money in your pocket now. 0:07:28.550 --> 0:07:30.650 That is a huge factor. That's a big part of 0:07:30.690 --> 0:07:32.770 the reason. I'll go over some of the kind of 0:07:32.830 --> 0:07:36.330 main issues driving the election person polling and gas prices 0:07:36.490 --> 0:07:38.450 is like number one or number two. 0:07:38.650 --> 0:07:42.920 Yeah, I have trouble imagining anything other than other cost 0:07:42.940 --> 0:07:47.400 of living stuff being like a larger impact on voters. 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:52.500 Something that is interesting, the redistricting across Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:56.340 North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah is will likely 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.460 have a minimal impact in the results, like in total. 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.720 There's obviously for the people actually impacted, the people whose 0:08:02.740 --> 0:08:04.380 votes are being diluted, especially. 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:06.890 Not that this is not bad or a problem. It's 0:08:06.950 --> 0:08:09.470 just they have fucked up enough that it's not going 0:08:09.510 --> 0:08:10.989 to benefit them to the extent. 0:08:11.030 --> 0:08:11.810 That's what it. 0:08:11.750 --> 0:08:13.830 Seemed like to me, that they're not going to benefit 0:08:13.870 --> 0:08:14.570 the way that they were. 0:08:15.350 --> 0:08:18.070 No. So I don't want to discount the impact of 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:20.580 the erosion of the Voting Rights Act by any means, 0:08:21.220 --> 0:08:25.070 or the just larger structural issues of partisan gerrymandering. But 0:08:25.410 --> 0:08:28.230 an analysis by Harvard estimated a net gain of only 0:08:28.650 --> 0:08:32.890 two seats for Republicans in these midterms, though other estimates 0:08:33.100 --> 0:08:35.719 give them a few more seats, anywhere between five to nine. 0:08:36.900 --> 0:08:40.040 So we're looking at somewhere between a couple seats. I 0:08:40.059 --> 0:08:43.339 think nine is probably a bit optimistic. Yeah, for the Republicans. 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:46.780 Around two to five seats they could net because of 0:08:47.500 --> 0:08:57.230 the redistricting measures. Could, might, yeah. coming years, going into 2028, 0:08:57.230 --> 0:09:00.470 when Virginia is able to push forward its redistricting again, 0:09:00.510 --> 0:09:02.490 which they tried to do earlier, but because of a 0:09:02.530 --> 0:09:06.610 procedural error, it was shot down. So that will also 0:09:06.770 --> 0:09:09.089 net Democrats a few more seats that will start to 0:09:09.110 --> 0:09:11.530 kind of even things out. And then we had this 0:09:11.550 --> 0:09:13.780 whole little fun redistricting for nothing. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.960 Yeah, it's a real, just a marker of how badly 0:09:17.020 --> 0:09:23.120 they have botched their starting position going into this administration. 0:09:23.980 --> 0:09:27.360 Just kind of a catastrophic series of political decisions. We'll 0:09:27.380 --> 0:09:29.490 see if any of that matters, but it really does 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.990 highlight how pissed off people are. 0:09:32.850 --> 0:09:37.010 Now, obviously, the Senate is kind of the big question here. 0:09:37.390 --> 0:09:37.650 Yeah. 0:09:37.870 --> 0:09:40.460 Will Democrats be able to actually take the Senate? Will 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.720 they be able to control all of Congress, not just 0:09:42.780 --> 0:09:46.740 the House? Yeah. Currently, the Republicans have a 53-seat majority, 0:09:47.100 --> 0:09:48.180 plus a Fetterman. 0:09:48.540 --> 0:09:48.740 Mm-hmm. 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.580 And the vice president who can vote. So that kind 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:54.940 of really throws a wrench in all these numbers, the 0:09:54.960 --> 0:10:00.339 Fetterman factor and the Vance factor. Democrats just have 45 0:10:00.340 --> 0:10:03.400 seats plus two independents who caucus with the Democrats, like 0:10:03.500 --> 0:10:07.900 Bernie Sanders. So essentially, things actually sit at like 54 0:10:07.900 --> 0:10:14.120 to 46, adjusting for independents and Fetterman. So Democrats really 0:10:14.179 --> 0:10:16.260 need a net gain of like four to five seats 0:10:16.970 --> 0:10:20.200 to be able to have the Senate be more of 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:26.420 a competitive voting arena, also considering J.D. Vance. There are 0:10:26.420 --> 0:10:30.709 35 Senate seats on the ballot next month. So Democrats 0:10:30.730 --> 0:10:33.670 will need to flip around four to five seats, like 0:10:33.730 --> 0:10:36.569 I said, and one of the seats Democrats have wanted 0:10:36.630 --> 0:10:39.990 to flip for a long time, and especially this year, 0:10:40.630 --> 0:10:45.220 is Maine, with Susan Collins. One of our worst lawmakers. 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:45.900 Yes. 0:10:46.100 --> 0:10:49.280 And ProPublica, as I reported on ED a few weeks ago, 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:56.189 ProPublica did that great investigation into military contracting corruption and 0:10:57.050 --> 0:11:02.170 bribery involving Susan Collins. So union logger Troy Jackson is 0:11:02.330 --> 0:11:07.150 trying to unseat Collins. Right now, this race leans D 0:11:07.429 --> 0:11:12.010 or is a toss up. Morrist has Jackson up four 0:11:12.110 --> 0:11:16.480 points ahead of Collins among registered voters, but with a 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:21.400 margin of error of 3.8%. So that's essentially still almost 0:11:21.460 --> 0:11:23.679 within the margin of error. This is going to be 0:11:23.700 --> 0:11:25.780 a very close race, right? A margin of error like that. 0:11:26.460 --> 0:11:29.660 This is still basically a toss up. Other polling shows 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:32.520 roughly the same results. Jackson up a few points, but 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:39.890 within the margin of error. Per Morrist, among the Maine electorate, 57% 0:11:39.890 --> 0:11:43.800 think Collins will win. That's not saying 57% want Collins 0:11:43.820 --> 0:11:46.040 to win, but they think that will happen, right? That's 0:11:46.059 --> 0:11:48.959 what they think is more likely. A survey from the 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:54.959 Maine People's Resource Center found Jackson ahead among independent voters, 58% 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:59.660 to 33% for Collins. The Maine People's Resource Center is 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:04.580 a progressive-leaning institution. Obviously, this race in Maine has been 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:08.470 a big shit show, to say the least. And since 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:13.350 Jackson has taken over as the nominee, Democratic Party establishment 0:12:13.370 --> 0:12:16.150 consultants have really swooped into Maine and have been trying 0:12:16.170 --> 0:12:19.929 to keep Jackson on a tight leash. Jackson's campaign has 0:12:20.090 --> 0:12:24.630 not replicated the Platner-style intensive town hall strategy. 0:12:24.650 --> 0:12:27.220 I think that would be a bad idea. Like, it 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.459 would be really obvious if he just tried to be 0:12:29.540 --> 0:12:31.760 Graham Platner without the scandal, right? 0:12:31.780 --> 0:12:35.390 Yeah. Yeah, let's try to be Graham Plattner, but I 0:12:35.410 --> 0:12:38.910 think it is, the style of campaigning is very different. 0:12:39.890 --> 0:12:43.170 Jackson's not as accessible to the electorate. Consultants have tried 0:12:43.190 --> 0:12:44.550 to keep him from doing Q & As at the 0:12:44.590 --> 0:12:47.670 events that he does end up doing. They've been dissuading 0:12:47.710 --> 0:12:52.090 him from talking about ICE and Israel and Palestine. 0:12:52.110 --> 0:12:52.570 Great. 0:12:52.990 --> 0:12:56.490 So they really have been trying to keep him on 0:12:56.510 --> 0:12:58.550 a pretty tight leash. There's a story in New York 0:12:58.610 --> 0:13:01.320 Magazine a few weeks ago that kind of details how 0:13:02.130 --> 0:13:06.150 Democratic establishment consultants have been trying to lead the Jackson 0:13:06.170 --> 0:13:09.530 campaign that if people are interested in that specific topic, 0:13:09.610 --> 0:13:13.709 I recommend they check out. So this is one of 0:13:13.730 --> 0:13:16.990 the races that Democrats really do need to flip if 0:13:17.510 --> 0:13:20.190 they have a chance of winning the Senate. And it is, 0:13:20.410 --> 0:13:24.410 you know, theoretically possible, you know, he may be slightly 0:13:24.460 --> 0:13:27.460 ahead in the polls, but only very slightly. But I think, yeah, 0:13:27.630 --> 0:13:30.570 this is this is essentially a toss up. especially looking 0:13:30.590 --> 0:13:34.150 back at 2020 when the Democrat in that race also was, 0:13:34.380 --> 0:13:36.960 you know, a little bit ahead and Collins still ended 0:13:37.020 --> 0:13:37.830 up walking away with it. 0:13:38.300 --> 0:13:41.380 Yeah, I think they're I mean, they're they're both trying 0:13:41.420 --> 0:13:44.820 to avoid having another platner who gets like out of 0:13:44.900 --> 0:13:47.719 control of them and is saying shit that the DNC 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:49.760 does not want to have to stand by. And I 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.760 think they are also hoping that that Plattner's campaign at 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.020 least did enough damage to Collins that she isn't going 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:57.760 to be able to like pull out a win this time. 0:13:57.800 --> 0:13:59.380 And maybe that'll be the case, you know, that might 0:13:59.420 --> 0:14:01.059 wind up being a play that works. 0:14:01.460 --> 0:14:01.840 Definitely. 0:14:02.020 --> 0:14:04.760 It's not a great position to have someone who is 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:08.070 doing as well as Plattner had been doing get dropped 0:14:08.140 --> 0:14:10.520 out with a scandal that fucked up. Like that's a, 0:14:10.610 --> 0:14:12.690 that's a, that's not easy to handle. 0:14:12.990 --> 0:14:13.210 Yes. 0:14:13.510 --> 0:14:16.709 Especially mobilizing that many people who were already kind of 0:14:16.770 --> 0:14:19.570 disillusioned with politics, giving them that sort of hope and 0:14:19.590 --> 0:14:21.840 then having that hope be ripped away And then those 0:14:21.900 --> 0:14:24.280 people who maybe, some of them who even still want 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:28.820 to be politically engaged, the Jackson campaign is not letting 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:30.520 them touch the campaign with a 10-foot pole, which you 0:14:30.540 --> 0:14:33.780 could maybe understand their reasons for. But there's a lot 0:14:33.820 --> 0:14:39.920 of grassroots, very working-class-oriented activists who want to be involved 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.060 in some way that are not being tapped. 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:42.320 Yeah. 0:14:42.700 --> 0:14:45.240 And as strong as Plattner's campaign was, it was because 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.120 it was built on the work that they were doing. 0:14:47.180 --> 0:14:47.370 Yeah. 0:14:47.550 --> 0:14:50.310 Not just him as a person. Yeah. So those are 0:14:50.350 --> 0:14:52.110 sort of complicating factors in this race. 0:14:52.610 --> 0:14:55.950 And you know what's a complicating factor in this podcast episode, Garrison? 0:14:56.090 --> 0:14:57.869 The fact that we have to pivot to ads in 0:14:57.890 --> 0:14:59.810 order to pay the bills. We have to pivot to 0:14:59.890 --> 0:15:00.470 ads right now. 0:15:00.530 --> 0:15:00.710 Yeah. 0:15:00.890 --> 0:15:14.240 Yeah. That is a complicating factor in our lives. And 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:14.900 we're back. 0:15:15.580 --> 0:15:18.550 How do you feel about North Carolina, Robert? Of the Carolinas, 0:15:18.690 --> 0:15:19.770 definitely my favorite. 0:15:20.530 --> 0:15:22.490 That's so true, actually. 0:15:22.590 --> 0:15:26.910 Easily the best of the Carolinas. Top 50% Carolina. Sorry 0:15:26.930 --> 0:15:29.380 to everyone in South Carolina. I'm not apologizing. I did 0:15:29.410 --> 0:15:32.020 not apologize, South Carolina. You need to know that. 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.000 Well, North Carolina could also be one of the states 0:15:36.300 --> 0:15:40.600 that flip for the Dems. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper 0:15:40.860 --> 0:15:45.810 is facing former RNC Chair Michael Watley. What a name. 0:15:46.250 --> 0:15:49.740 Who is running to replace Republican Senator Tom Tillis. 0:15:50.250 --> 0:15:53.160 Those are both silly names. Have some self-respect. 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.900 God damn it. This race is leaning Democrat. This is 0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:57.580 not a toss-up. 0:15:57.720 --> 0:15:57.960 Yeah. 0:15:58.260 --> 0:16:02.800 Polls from late September have Cooper ahead 5 to 13 points. Yeah, 0:16:02.850 --> 0:16:06.450 that's pretty good. And last week, a Republican super PAC 0:16:06.610 --> 0:16:09.130 pulled $ 30 million of ad money out of the state 0:16:09.630 --> 0:16:13.980 to use in other races. So... That's a sign that 0:16:14.060 --> 0:16:16.600 at least even among some Republicans, they're kind of giving 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.800 up on this. Roy Cooper is a pretty strong candidate 0:16:19.940 --> 0:16:23.600 for this state. I should say, as we're going through 0:16:23.700 --> 0:16:26.110 all of these sort of candidates, this is not, it 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:29.770 could happen here, endorsing any candidate just because they belong 0:16:29.790 --> 0:16:33.230 to one party or another. Not our thing. I'm just 0:16:33.270 --> 0:16:35.770 talking about this in terms of what the Democrats want 0:16:35.810 --> 0:16:38.030 in order to take back power and the sort of 0:16:38.350 --> 0:16:41.840 how these candidates relate to each state. Roy Cooper... is 0:16:42.180 --> 0:16:46.580 a relatively liked figure in North Carolina. That is reflected 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:48.560 in the polling for this. His campaign is also helped 0:16:48.580 --> 0:16:50.510 by the fact he's not going up against an incumbent. 0:16:50.530 --> 0:16:54.290 He's not going up against someone who voters already are 0:16:54.310 --> 0:16:56.630 familiar with, already like, who they just want to keep 0:16:56.670 --> 0:16:58.780 in power. He's going up against a new guy, a 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:02.700 former RNC chair. So this is one of those states 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.340 where the Democrats will probably flip. You can kind of 0:17:05.420 --> 0:17:08.869 count this on the four to five states needed to flip. 0:17:08.980 --> 0:17:11.449 This is the most kind of certain one. There'd be 0:17:11.470 --> 0:17:14.410 a massive polling error if it goes the other way 0:17:14.609 --> 0:17:18.190 or some sort of fuckery. And just a total misread 0:17:18.770 --> 0:17:21.409 of the situation on the ground. Now, one of the 0:17:21.430 --> 0:17:26.470 more interesting kind of surprises is Alaska, which could also 0:17:26.630 --> 0:17:31.480 flip for Democrats. The former Democratic congressman, Mary Peltola, is 0:17:31.500 --> 0:17:35.859 going up against sitting Senator Dan Sullivan. Paltola is definitely 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:40.640 running more as, like, a centrist. Very pro-fossil fuels. You're 0:17:40.820 --> 0:17:41.400 in Alaska. 0:17:41.420 --> 0:17:41.870 Yeah. 0:17:42.570 --> 0:17:48.770 Pro-gun, too. Pro-gun. Her campaign slogan is Fish Family Freedom. 0:17:49.390 --> 0:17:49.550 Yep. 0:17:49.910 --> 0:17:50.470 That makes sense. 0:17:50.910 --> 0:17:52.909 Not a terrible slogan for running in Alaska. 0:17:52.950 --> 0:17:56.840 Not bad for Alaska. And rather than attacking Republicans, a 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.859 lot of her campaign messaging is focused on taking on, quote, D.C., 0:18:01.550 --> 0:18:04.930 You know, it's very much like Alaska versus D.C. Yeah. Yeah. 0:18:04.990 --> 0:18:07.970 Corruption is a massive issue for the whole electorate. So 0:18:08.490 --> 0:18:11.960 that makes sense. Like that's, yeah, kind of the obvious play. 0:18:12.060 --> 0:18:15.619 And really prioritizing Alaska as like its own special interest 0:18:15.660 --> 0:18:19.580 because it's so different from every other state. Part of 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:21.260 Feltola's strategy is trying to, you know, is trying to 0:18:21.300 --> 0:18:25.149 attract certain Republicans. So she's not really going hard against 0:18:25.330 --> 0:18:27.970 Republicans per se, but attacking the sort of like D.C. 0:18:28.070 --> 0:18:31.649 swamp establishment. That's that's that's her main strategy here. New 0:18:31.670 --> 0:18:35.859 York Times-Siena poll from late September to early October has 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:37.800 Peltola up seven points. 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:43.060 Yeah, that's a pretty solid lead. Alaska's been wavering the 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:46.700 last couple of elections between blue and red. So this 0:18:46.780 --> 0:18:50.500 is not like a sea change, right? This is kind 0:18:50.540 --> 0:18:54.100 of an incremental change in some of the And obviously, 0:18:54.540 --> 0:18:58.379 the disaster that is this administration has pushed things further 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.240 along than I think it otherwise would be. But this 0:19:00.300 --> 0:19:01.980 is it's been moving in this direction a while. 0:19:02.090 --> 0:19:02.350 Yeah. 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:04.989 And like Alaska hasn't had a Democratic senator in like 0:19:05.010 --> 0:19:08.320 almost 20 years. this would be a significant event if 0:19:08.340 --> 0:19:10.340 this happened. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. I didn't mean to 0:19:10.380 --> 0:19:11.020 say it wouldn't. 0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:13.359 I've just been like this, this pattern has been occurring 0:19:13.380 --> 0:19:15.400 since before like Trump too. 0:19:15.700 --> 0:19:15.920 Right. 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:20.780 And obviously there's this general pattern of in the midterms, usually, 0:19:21.660 --> 0:19:24.300 especially the house, but sometimes the Senate as well, shifts 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.440 to the opposition party. You know, this is like politics 101. 0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:30.670 This is a very basic pattern. And what we're looking 0:19:30.690 --> 0:19:32.850 at is this, this could be even stronger this year 0:19:32.930 --> 0:19:35.369 than some years previously, probably not as strong as 2018, but, 0:19:36.510 --> 0:19:40.040 But taking back the Senate and the House would be huge, 0:19:40.060 --> 0:19:41.780 especially because of how far they have to go in 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:45.239 the Senate in order to retake it. Yeah. Now, the 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.730 race in Alaska, this definitely used to lean Republican, right? 0:19:47.770 --> 0:19:49.970 This was not seen to be a very competitive race. 0:19:50.700 --> 0:19:53.940 But recently, this went to a toss-up, right? And now, 0:19:54.570 --> 0:19:57.850 some models even have it leaning Democrat. So this is 0:19:57.890 --> 0:20:00.510 one race where there's been a lot of movement. And J.D. 0:20:00.550 --> 0:20:05.690 Vance was dropped into Alaska to campaign for Sullivan last week. 0:20:06.010 --> 0:20:08.109 something that they may not have needed to do or 0:20:08.150 --> 0:20:11.110 thought they needed to do a few months ago. But 0:20:11.330 --> 0:20:13.470 now now this is competitive enough that they're sending in 0:20:13.490 --> 0:20:16.210 the vice president. Will J.D. Vance actually help Republicans win 0:20:16.350 --> 0:20:20.300 the state? That's that's certainly debatable. But I don't know 0:20:20.340 --> 0:20:22.700 if I would be putting J.D. in as my pen. 0:20:22.740 --> 0:20:25.200 That's the thing, right? I don't like it. Like, I 0:20:25.220 --> 0:20:26.100 don't know who. 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:27.840 I put in as my pen shitter right now in 0:20:27.859 --> 0:20:30.350 the Republican bench, but it would not advance would be 0:20:30.390 --> 0:20:31.609 the bottom of my list. 0:20:32.650 --> 0:20:38.530 Like, honestly, send in Fetterman. No, legitimately, yes. He'll do 0:20:38.650 --> 0:20:41.690 better for you in this instance. Sending Fetterman to campaign 0:20:41.710 --> 0:20:45.859 for the Republicans would be, I think, probably a smarter move. Yeah, 0:20:45.950 --> 0:20:49.360 you could convince him to do it. What a nightmare. 0:20:49.619 --> 0:20:54.810 What a horrible situation. It's it's things are really bad, buddy. 0:20:55.470 --> 0:20:59.090 Things are really bad. I know when like we were 0:20:59.170 --> 0:21:02.230 getting shot at by federal agents in Portland, things were bad, 0:21:02.270 --> 0:21:03.570 but things are a lot darker. 0:21:03.590 --> 0:21:06.230 Yeah, well, I'm about to get maybe shot at by 0:21:06.350 --> 0:21:09.600 federal agents in like 20 minutes. So, yeah, because they 0:21:09.619 --> 0:21:11.740 just shot a dude with an actual gun in New York. 0:21:11.780 --> 0:21:12.040 Yeah. 0:21:12.580 --> 0:21:13.840 Time is a spiral. 0:21:13.859 --> 0:21:14.659 Yeah. 0:21:15.540 --> 0:21:17.120 Let's talk about Texas. 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:18.000 Sure. 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:21.980 Yeah, I'm excited to talk about Texas because this is 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.720 the first time I get to be like a little 0:21:25.340 --> 0:21:29.080 optimistic about more than like two Texas elections, actually. 0:21:29.140 --> 0:21:33.629 So, yeah, I'm I'm excited. Let's talk about Talafrico. Talafrico. 0:21:36.270 --> 0:21:38.870 In terms of the big, big question is Texas with 0:21:38.910 --> 0:21:43.540 James Talarico going up against Kenny Pax, Ken Paxton. K-Pax, 0:21:43.619 --> 0:21:45.280 as I like to call him. You probably didn't see 0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:48.369 that movie, Garrison. It's not good. No, no. I did 0:21:48.410 --> 0:21:51.250 just see Out of Sight, the Steven Soderbergh movie. I 0:21:51.470 --> 0:21:53.960 don't know if I've seen that one. From like the 90s. 0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:57.840 It's like the proto Ocean's Eleven. Okay. It's the hottest 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.820 I've ever seen George Clooney. Oh, Cloon Tang. Okay. He 0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:03.740 plays like a serial bank robber. That's a good role 0:22:03.780 --> 0:22:07.320 for him. Who keeps going to jail, prison, then he 0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:09.629 breaks out. And then it kind of cuts between a 0:22:09.650 --> 0:22:12.050 few different timelines as he gets into a sort of 0:22:12.210 --> 0:22:15.909 doomed romance with a federal marshal played by Jennifer Lopez. 0:22:16.510 --> 0:22:18.709 Okay, I was going to say I've seen this movie 0:22:18.869 --> 0:22:21.870 and then... Well, no, I have seen this movie with J-Lo. Yeah, yeah, 0:22:21.910 --> 0:22:23.869 I have seen this movie. It's hard to tell because 0:22:23.910 --> 0:22:26.189 like the first half of that description is like 18 0:22:26.190 --> 0:22:27.150 different George Clooney movies. 0:22:27.190 --> 0:22:31.840 Exactly. He's like a bank robber. He keeps going to prison. No, 0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:34.740 especially like the late 90s, early 2000s. This is like 0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:37.730 his role. He had this like on lock. Yeah. The 0:22:37.790 --> 0:22:40.830 hottest bank robber you've ever seen. Yeah, people love a criminal. 0:22:41.550 --> 0:22:48.770 Speaking of, Ken Paxton, not doing great in the polls. Yeah. 0:22:49.350 --> 0:22:53.840 Marist and New York Times have Tallarico up six points 0:22:54.280 --> 0:22:57.320 as of late September, with a recent Fox News poll 0:22:57.380 --> 0:23:04.150 showing Tallarico at 51% to Paxton's 49%. Not good for 0:23:04.390 --> 0:23:09.379 old Kay Pax. No. There's also this big enthusiasm gap 0:23:09.500 --> 0:23:17.500 that the Fox News poll really focused on. Among MAGA Republicans, 64% 0:23:17.500 --> 0:23:21.600 say they're extremely interested in the midterms. But for non-MAGA Republicans, 0:23:22.260 --> 0:23:25.830 only 50% is extremely interested in the midterms. So that's 0:23:25.850 --> 0:23:30.950 almost like a 15% gap among Republicans for Republicans. how 0:23:31.030 --> 0:23:34.129 much they're invested in these midterms. And this difference does 0:23:34.150 --> 0:23:37.070 not exist on the Democratic side. The Fox News polling 0:23:37.090 --> 0:23:40.119 has Democrats broken down into two categories, similar to MAGA 0:23:40.140 --> 0:23:47.180 or non-MAGA. They have DSA Democrats and non-DSA Democrats. Which 0:23:47.260 --> 0:23:50.260 is funny on its face. DSA Democrats are at 68%, 0:23:50.260 --> 0:23:52.120 non-DSA is at 67%. So basically no gap. 0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:52.500 Jeez. 0:23:57.030 --> 0:23:59.630 And I think this has less to do with Tallarico's 0:23:59.710 --> 0:24:03.290 specific characteristics as a candidate and everything to do with 0:24:03.310 --> 0:24:05.750 the fact that Ken Paxton is the literal Christian devil. 0:24:05.810 --> 0:24:08.429 Yes, he is Satan. And people want to see him beaten. 0:24:08.730 --> 0:24:09.050 Yes. 0:24:11.210 --> 0:24:13.370 But I mean, these numbers are not just interesting because 0:24:13.430 --> 0:24:16.210 of the gap between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans, but also 0:24:16.570 --> 0:24:21.290 MAGA Republicans are at 64% for enthusiasm versus Democrats are 0:24:21.310 --> 0:24:25.790 at 67, 68. So that's a few points ahead just 0:24:25.830 --> 0:24:30.250 for enthusiasm. against the mega kind of hardcore. And the 0:24:30.270 --> 0:24:33.430 other really worrying part of this for Republicans is that 0:24:33.650 --> 0:24:36.460 out of the percent that say that they will vote, 0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:38.590 mega is at 76%, non-mega is at 65%. That's an 11% gap. 0:24:39.380 --> 0:24:41.080 And similarly, this gap does not exist for the Democrats, 0:24:41.100 --> 0:24:42.540 DSA or otherwise. That is really interesting. 0:24:51.580 --> 0:24:54.780 And it says a lot about MAGA Republicans that they 0:24:54.820 --> 0:24:58.219 have just completely given up any kind of like moral. 0:24:58.140 --> 0:25:00.899 Standards for their candidates. Do not care. Does not matter 0:25:00.940 --> 0:25:01.240 at all. 0:25:02.020 --> 0:25:04.700 In a lot of the country, Republicans and MAGA Republicans 0:25:04.910 --> 0:25:07.550 are synonyms, but that's not the case in a lot 0:25:07.609 --> 0:25:10.970 of Texas. Like Texas has a lot of Bush Republicans still. Yeah. 0:25:11.030 --> 0:25:13.550 I mean, like those people still likely are going to 0:25:13.950 --> 0:25:17.930 vote for Trump in the presidential election. Absolutely. But oversimplifying their, 0:25:18.130 --> 0:25:21.729 like all of their politics to MAGA is, I think 0:25:21.770 --> 0:25:24.310 it's a sort of theoretical mistake. It's a mistake. 0:25:24.750 --> 0:25:27.790 Those people are not, some of them are, because there's 0:25:27.830 --> 0:25:30.560 a chunk of Republicans that look like they're going to Tallarico, but. 0:25:30.540 --> 0:25:31.560 It's not a huge chunk. 0:25:32.080 --> 0:25:34.280 It's more that some of them just aren't going to 0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:36.480 vote or are going to put in like a protest candidate. 0:25:36.500 --> 0:25:38.830 You know, I've read some interviews to that stance with 0:25:38.850 --> 0:25:41.090 like Republican voters who are on sort of the Bush 0:25:41.109 --> 0:25:42.790 Republican side of things being like, I'm just going to 0:25:43.369 --> 0:25:45.310 put in a protest vote or something, which in this 0:25:45.410 --> 0:25:48.869 instance is just as good as voting for Tallarico in 0:25:48.910 --> 0:25:52.320 terms of stopping Paxton from winning again, because the Republicans 0:25:52.340 --> 0:25:54.640 who have some degree of moral fiber left are also 0:25:54.700 --> 0:25:56.020 disgusted with Ken Paxton. 0:25:56.060 --> 0:25:58.740 He's gross. On that topic. I don't know if you 0:25:58.780 --> 0:26:03.810 saw this. Ken Paxton's ex-wife. who is a Texas state senator, 0:26:04.850 --> 0:26:08.210 was tapped for an election ad where she does not 0:26:08.369 --> 0:26:12.500 even say her ex-husband's name, but just begs people to 0:26:12.580 --> 0:26:16.760 vote for the quote Republican ticket to stay on the team. 0:26:17.020 --> 0:26:18.060 I want to play the ad. 0:26:18.560 --> 0:26:19.139 Yeah. 0:26:19.220 --> 0:26:20.080 God, this is great. 0:26:20.369 --> 0:26:22.210 I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. 0:26:22.790 --> 0:26:24.149 People have asked my thoughts about. 0:26:23.990 --> 0:26:27.290 This election and turns out I have some. Let's talk 0:26:27.350 --> 0:26:28.270 about the elephant. 0:26:27.990 --> 0:26:28.210 In the room. 0:26:29.040 --> 0:26:31.520 In a general election, it's not as much about the 0:26:31.619 --> 0:26:32.860 individual players on the team. 0:26:33.220 --> 0:26:35.780 It's about getting the whole team across the finish line. 0:26:36.359 --> 0:26:39.199 Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the 0:26:39.240 --> 0:26:42.590 future of Texas to the other team. That's why I'm 0:26:42.630 --> 0:26:46.030 voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd. Let's hold 0:26:46.070 --> 0:26:47.190 the line together. 0:26:47.770 --> 0:26:50.869 Texas PAC is responsible for the content of this advertising. Rousing. 0:26:50.950 --> 0:26:53.470 Won't even say his name. Crazy stuff. 0:26:54.369 --> 0:26:59.360 Wow. Wild stuff. Hold your nose and vote for my 0:26:59.540 --> 0:27:02.270 shitty ex, the psychopath. Especially because she starts by saying, 0:27:02.290 --> 0:27:05.310 let's address the elephant in the room. And then doesn't. 0:27:05.550 --> 0:27:07.210 Does not at all. Does not address the elephant. 0:27:07.490 --> 0:27:10.090 Can't bring herself to say his name. 0:27:10.390 --> 0:27:12.730 Oh my God, that's amazing. It's one of the most 0:27:12.810 --> 0:27:15.869 incredible political ads I've ever seen. Almost as good as, 0:27:16.170 --> 0:27:19.340 we may as well play this one. This is technically 0:27:19.600 --> 0:27:22.320 a House ad. Unfortunately, we're going to drop it here 0:27:22.380 --> 0:27:24.739 in the Senate section. But in terms of talking about 0:27:24.760 --> 0:27:28.600 political ads. This is an ad running in Ohio in 0:27:28.660 --> 0:27:32.540 response to a series of anti-trans ads that the Republicans 0:27:32.560 --> 0:27:34.720 have been blasting in the airwaves. 0:27:35.330 --> 0:27:36.210 Seen these ads? 0:27:36.490 --> 0:27:37.930 They're a complete lie. 0:27:38.230 --> 0:27:41.250 Records show not only is this woman actually from Texas, 0:27:41.510 --> 0:27:46.400 she didn't have any surgery as He protected men who 0:27:46.460 --> 0:27:49.879 abused young girls by voting in the Senate to block 0:27:49.920 --> 0:27:53.619 the release of the Epstein files. Maybe that's because Husted 0:27:53.660 --> 0:27:56.940 took one hundred and sixteen thousand dollars from associates of 0:27:57.020 --> 0:28:01.290 Jeffrey Epstein. Ten times more than any other senator. John 0:28:01.330 --> 0:28:02.869 Husted should be ashamed. 0:28:03.050 --> 0:28:04.970 I'm sure Brown and I approve this message. 0:28:05.250 --> 0:28:07.650 It's that easy. It's that easy, folks. Yeah. 0:28:08.390 --> 0:28:10.170 Yeah. Yeah. 0:28:10.230 --> 0:28:13.080 The ads made for you, really. If the Republicans want 0:28:13.100 --> 0:28:17.010 to make, quote unquote, protecting young girls the center of 0:28:17.050 --> 0:28:17.770 their politics. 0:28:17.810 --> 0:28:18.010 Yeah. 0:28:18.450 --> 0:28:22.050 They fucking handed you the silver platter. The Epstein's right there. Yeah. 0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:27.480 It's frustrating because Tallarico has fucking recently made some kind 0:28:27.520 --> 0:28:31.800 of bows to the anti-trans kids in sports panic shit, 0:28:31.859 --> 0:28:33.740 which was very wishy-washy. 0:28:33.780 --> 0:28:37.330 Wishy-washy, flippy-floppy, not standing firmly where he should be, certainly. 0:28:37.480 --> 0:28:40.050 No, and I don't think that's helping him. Honestly, I 0:28:40.070 --> 0:28:42.090 think the primary thing helping him is that Ken Paxton 0:28:42.150 --> 0:28:43.670 is an abominable monster. 0:28:44.310 --> 0:28:47.910 He's awful. He's the devil. Like. 0:28:49.110 --> 0:28:51.150 And to run against the devil, you simply have to 0:28:51.270 --> 0:28:52.230 not be the devil. 0:28:52.450 --> 0:28:53.900 I guess it's harder than that. Trump won. 0:28:54.260 --> 0:28:56.220 And also offer people real things as well. I think 0:28:56.440 --> 0:28:58.580 I'm not being fair to the campaign. Like he has 0:28:58.640 --> 0:29:00.010 run a much better campaign than that. 0:29:00.230 --> 0:29:02.590 Well, I'm also just saying like in general, I think 0:29:02.610 --> 0:29:05.670 the sort of running as just not Trump. Yes. That's 0:29:05.710 --> 0:29:08.050 not one as a strategy. That's not enough. 0:29:08.810 --> 0:29:12.400 Tallarico has worked hard to portray himself as, other than 0:29:12.460 --> 0:29:17.560 being a Democrat, like a Texas Christian that Texans can 0:29:17.840 --> 0:29:19.320 find respectable, right? 0:29:19.940 --> 0:29:20.160 Yeah. 0:29:21.040 --> 0:29:24.790 We'll talk a little bit more about Texas, but first, 0:29:25.510 --> 0:29:26.470 here are some ads. 0:29:37.420 --> 0:29:40.480 And we're back. I did want to mention one more 0:29:40.500 --> 0:29:44.430 thing about the KPAX campaign. Paxton's Senate campaign recently put 0:29:44.590 --> 0:29:48.550 out a series of missing posters demanding proof of life 0:29:48.630 --> 0:29:51.580 for James Tallarico. Oh, yeah. A little less than two 0:29:51.630 --> 0:29:54.920 weeks ago, he took sick with the flu. He got 0:29:54.960 --> 0:29:58.150 diagnosed on September 30th. And after that, he had to 0:29:58.320 --> 0:30:01.300 like attend. He attended like a Hispanic Business Council meeting 0:30:01.540 --> 0:30:03.760 via video that had been scheduled to attend in person. 0:30:03.920 --> 0:30:04.420 Yeah. 0:30:04.480 --> 0:30:06.590 He told attendees, I'm running a fever and I'm at 0:30:06.620 --> 0:30:08.209 my most contagious right now. And I guess I've been 0:30:08.230 --> 0:30:10.010 shaking too many hands on the campaign trail. So I 0:30:10.050 --> 0:30:12.290 want to keep everybody safe. He stated that if he 0:30:12.310 --> 0:30:15.010 passed his illness to somebody's grandmother or baby, he couldn't 0:30:15.070 --> 0:30:19.850 live with himself. Totally reasonable thing. But Paxton's campaign put 0:30:19.910 --> 0:30:23.570 out this like old West looking like wanted poster of 0:30:23.610 --> 0:30:26.410 him demanding proof of life because he's been absent 12 0:30:26.410 --> 0:30:28.120 days from the campaign trail. 0:30:28.340 --> 0:30:32.460 They're doing the fucking Mitch McConnell bullshit. Yeah, it's it's nonsense. 0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:36.200 He's been making statements. He's just not. He's sick. 0:30:36.340 --> 0:30:37.040 That happens. 0:30:37.300 --> 0:30:39.500 He's booked for a CNN town hall on October 14th. 0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:43.560 There's been a pretty bad illness going around. I think 0:30:43.580 --> 0:30:44.540 there's probably a few. 0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:47.340 There is a cold. There is a COVID strain. 0:30:47.440 --> 0:30:49.390 And he's young for politics, but he's also at the 0:30:49.490 --> 0:30:51.030 age in which flus and shit hit yard. 0:30:51.750 --> 0:30:54.690 He's not a baby. I did see a clip from 0:30:54.870 --> 0:30:57.450 the president in the past few days talking about this. 0:30:57.510 --> 0:31:01.100 And he said that Paxton's hiding because he's been forced 0:31:01.140 --> 0:31:03.720 to eat meat when running. And so he's been vomiting 0:31:03.800 --> 0:31:08.969 up meat all the time. And that's why he's not... What? Non-visible. Donald, what? 0:31:09.730 --> 0:31:14.970 What the fuck? Because Trump just learned what veganism is. Yeah. 0:31:15.050 --> 0:31:17.170 And he says it really funny. And it's been like 0:31:17.210 --> 0:31:20.430 the main thing he's been attacking Talafrico with is that 0:31:20.450 --> 0:31:21.450 the fact that he's like. 0:31:22.020 --> 0:31:25.140 Alleged vegan, right? Because he's not a vegan. 0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:25.740 Yes. 0:31:26.280 --> 0:31:28.160 No, even if you were a vegan, if you wanted 0:31:28.200 --> 0:31:31.300 to win a major election in Texas, you would lie 0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:31.900 about that. 0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:32.280 Yeah. 0:31:32.300 --> 0:31:35.280 That's almost more of a disqualifying factor in Texas politics 0:31:35.320 --> 0:31:36.380 than being a Democrat. 0:31:36.400 --> 0:31:36.540 Yeah. 0:31:37.950 --> 0:31:39.970 But yeah, that's been the main thing Trump's been trying 0:31:40.010 --> 0:31:44.690 to attack Talifrico for is this alleged vegan status and 0:31:44.750 --> 0:31:47.970 the idea that Talifrico is having to fake being a 0:31:48.050 --> 0:31:51.750 meat eater and has gotten sick from eating meat and 0:31:52.010 --> 0:31:56.020 is thus vomiting. And that's why he's out of the spotlight. Yeah, 0:31:56.080 --> 0:32:00.540 of course. That's definitely it. Simple, basic stuff. Politics 101. 0:32:00.540 --> 0:32:05.220 Yeah, politics something or other. The gubernatorial election is also 0:32:05.240 --> 0:32:08.830 going to be this year for Texas. And this is 0:32:08.890 --> 0:32:11.510 like the first time in a while that it's looked 0:32:11.950 --> 0:32:18.190 actually kind of competitive. Gina Hinojosa is running against Greg Abbott, 0:32:18.430 --> 0:32:21.950 who is. right up there with Ken Paxton in terms 0:32:21.970 --> 0:32:24.800 of being an evil scumbag. Like he is just a monster, 0:32:24.860 --> 0:32:27.920 although a much more popular monster than Ken Paxton is 0:32:28.020 --> 0:32:32.060 with voters. But even so, Hinojosa is giving him a 0:32:32.080 --> 0:32:35.700 run for his money. Right now, the real clear politics 0:32:36.090 --> 0:32:41.410 average trend has Abbott at 48.1 and Hinojosa at 46.4. 0:32:41.410 --> 0:32:45.530 But there are several polls that have Hinojosa ahead, including 0:32:45.550 --> 0:32:48.450 YouGov and The New York Times Siena poll has her 0:32:48.510 --> 0:32:52.580 up by three. Marist has her up by three. Recon 0:32:52.720 --> 0:32:54.780 MR at Siena has her up by four. Now, obviously, 0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:57.260 there are some like Telemundo has Abbott up by seven. 0:32:57.720 --> 0:33:00.360 Fox has Abbott up by five. And there are definitely 0:33:00.440 --> 0:33:03.360 more polls that have Abbott ahead. But this looks close 0:33:03.440 --> 0:33:06.270 enough that like it's being considered by a lot of 0:33:06.290 --> 0:33:06.870 people to be a. 0:33:06.890 --> 0:33:09.570 Toss up or close to a toss up. It's competitive. 0:33:10.070 --> 0:33:10.850 It's competitive. 0:33:10.950 --> 0:33:14.150 Like she really could pull it off. I'm not saying 0:33:14.190 --> 0:33:17.960 I think that's the likeliest. thing to happen here because 0:33:17.980 --> 0:33:20.780 this is still Texas. And I just can't be that 0:33:20.940 --> 0:33:24.550 optimistic about the gubernatorial race. But I would love it 0:33:24.810 --> 0:33:27.790 if Gina could unseat Greg Abbott because he is just 0:33:27.870 --> 0:33:28.830 a fucking monster. 0:33:29.470 --> 0:33:32.630 And yeah, she's running a really good campaign. 0:33:32.810 --> 0:33:33.010 Yeah. 0:33:33.050 --> 0:33:36.350 She's currently in the House of Representatives representing the 49th District. 0:33:36.630 --> 0:33:39.470 The Texas House or the federal? In the Texas House. 0:33:39.530 --> 0:33:41.080 She's a state legislator. The Texas House. 0:33:41.130 --> 0:33:41.360 Okay. 0:33:41.710 --> 0:33:42.300 Got it. Yeah. 0:33:42.390 --> 0:33:45.280 And she worked for the AFL prior to that. She's 0:33:45.300 --> 0:33:47.300 been a lawyer for quite some time. She was part 0:33:47.320 --> 0:33:50.460 of the legal team that sued Tom DeLay. The Hinojos 0:33:50.500 --> 0:33:52.780 are like a prominent North Texas family. I went to 0:33:52.820 --> 0:33:55.260 school with one of her, I don't know if it 0:33:55.300 --> 0:33:57.610 was her kid or like a cousin or something, but 0:33:57.650 --> 0:34:00.520 like the Hino Yoses are like a prominent wealthy family in, 0:34:00.700 --> 0:34:01.420 in North Texas. 0:34:01.440 --> 0:34:01.940 Hmm. 0:34:02.280 --> 0:34:05.810 So, It's very interesting that she's and I haven't enough 0:34:05.850 --> 0:34:08.510 of a deep dive. I think a lot of what's 0:34:08.550 --> 0:34:11.780 helping her is just the general unpopularity of the Republican 0:34:11.800 --> 0:34:14.839 Party right now. And I do kind of suspect that 0:34:14.900 --> 0:34:17.540 Greg Abbott is being dragged down a little bit by 0:34:17.580 --> 0:34:21.660 Ken Paxton, too, like that, just the general the overall trend. 0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:24.239 And also, like, I think he knows is probably benefiting 0:34:24.300 --> 0:34:27.239 from some of the enthusiasm that Tallarico's campaign has helped 0:34:27.260 --> 0:34:27.879 to generate, too. 0:34:27.960 --> 0:34:28.120 Right. 0:34:28.360 --> 0:34:30.540 Obviously, she's also made a lot of really good moves 0:34:30.600 --> 0:34:33.489 on her own that have increased enthusiasm. But in general, 0:34:33.989 --> 0:34:37.770 I think because Texas looks competitive in a way it 0:34:37.850 --> 0:34:41.129 really hasn't, it's benefiting probably both candidates a lot. Just 0:34:41.150 --> 0:34:43.730 that that is bringing more people out to volunteer. It's 0:34:43.770 --> 0:34:47.040 bringing more people out to donate. Just creating this impression 0:34:47.060 --> 0:34:49.700 that like this might be a winnable fight has done 0:34:49.760 --> 0:34:50.120 a lot. 0:34:50.380 --> 0:34:50.600 Yeah. 0:34:50.800 --> 0:34:53.520 So that's one to keep watch on. Again, I would 0:34:53.580 --> 0:34:56.719 say a gun to my head. Abbott's still probably going 0:34:56.739 --> 0:34:59.320 to eke out a victory, but I can't say definitely. 0:34:59.850 --> 0:35:03.350 Right. Yeah, he does have that sort of incumbent advantage. 0:35:03.370 --> 0:35:07.660 And that's another factor with the Tallarico-Paxton thing. Paxton does 0:35:07.700 --> 0:35:10.259 not have that incumbent advantage. I think Corbyn would be 0:35:10.280 --> 0:35:13.219 a much harder candidate for Tallarico to beat. 0:35:13.280 --> 0:35:15.500 This wouldn't be an election if Corbyn had won the primary. 0:35:15.560 --> 0:35:19.440 That's why we were sort of softly excited when Paxton won. 0:35:19.780 --> 0:35:23.540 Because as dangerous as it is for Paxton to potentially 0:35:23.580 --> 0:35:26.719 be in the Senate... He has a much bigger attack 0:35:27.739 --> 0:35:33.820 radius or attack surface than Cornyn does. Another one of 0:35:33.860 --> 0:35:36.489 these kind of long shots, actually, I would say the 0:35:36.550 --> 0:35:40.049 biggest long shot for a flip is in Florida with 0:35:40.090 --> 0:35:44.350 progressive Democrat Angie Nixon running against Ashley Moody, who took 0:35:44.630 --> 0:35:48.650 Rubio's seat. The best poll for Nixon as of a 0:35:48.700 --> 0:35:52.810 few days ago is by Florida Politics, and according to them, 0:35:52.910 --> 0:35:56.870 the race is at a tie, 45%. But a recent 0:35:56.890 --> 0:36:01.660 poll from Stetson University has Moody leading 51 to 40, 0:36:01.660 --> 0:36:05.560 so 11 points. A YouGov poll from late September to 0:36:05.620 --> 0:36:08.820 early October has Moody five points ahead, with 5% of 0:36:08.860 --> 0:36:13.259 likely voters still undecided. Though, actually, as of just a 0:36:13.280 --> 0:36:16.080 few hours ago, as of recording, we're recording this on 0:36:16.180 --> 0:36:21.489 Thursday night, Florida Politics did another poll, which shows Moody 0:36:21.590 --> 0:36:26.530 at 47% and Angie Nixon at 45% within margin of error. 0:36:27.010 --> 0:36:31.470 So a slight difference from the last poll that had 0:36:31.530 --> 0:36:35.260 them tied. This is one of those races that the Democrats, 0:36:35.700 --> 0:36:38.900 as the DNC, is not actually expecting Nixon to win. 0:36:39.040 --> 0:36:41.759 They're not really pumping much money in, or really any 0:36:42.160 --> 0:36:46.230 money in. They're not helping. All of this is the 0:36:46.270 --> 0:36:49.610 result of just Nixon being a really good politician. The 0:36:49.650 --> 0:36:52.910 fact that the race is this close. And the Nixons 0:36:52.930 --> 0:36:55.550 are sort of like sleeper candidates. I was not familiar 0:36:55.570 --> 0:36:59.520 with Nixon until the primary. Since then, I've watched videos 0:36:59.560 --> 0:37:02.790 of her working in the state house. from these past 0:37:02.830 --> 0:37:07.129 few years and then campaign appearances, she is great. She 0:37:07.250 --> 0:37:11.430 is really good. A really clear communicator of working class issues, 0:37:11.550 --> 0:37:14.859 issues of impacting the black community in Florida, right? This 0:37:14.900 --> 0:37:16.759 Florida is a state we often like reduced to kind 0:37:16.780 --> 0:37:20.040 of the worst of the worst people, but there's a 0:37:20.080 --> 0:37:23.180 lot of like good people in Florida as well. They 0:37:23.200 --> 0:37:27.290 just haven't been represented in, in politics for almost, almost 0:37:27.330 --> 0:37:28.310 as long as I've been alive. Yeah. 0:37:28.790 --> 0:37:29.009 Yeah. 0:37:29.370 --> 0:37:29.790 Yeah. 0:37:29.910 --> 0:37:32.750 I mean, it gets forgotten, but there's like a reason 0:37:32.810 --> 0:37:35.569 why the 2000 election hinged on Florida. And it was 0:37:35.590 --> 0:37:36.870 because it was really close. 0:37:37.730 --> 0:37:39.450 And I'm really interested to see what the results of 0:37:39.489 --> 0:37:41.620 this race is, because this will indicate kind of how 0:37:41.660 --> 0:37:44.660 much Trump is hurting the Republicans. If it's like a really, 0:37:44.680 --> 0:37:47.660 really close race, if the results are really close. And 0:37:47.700 --> 0:37:50.200 it will also point to Nixon's strength as a candidate. 0:37:50.239 --> 0:37:53.870 And I'm interested to watch what she does after this election, 0:37:54.190 --> 0:37:56.989 whether or not she wins. Now, of course, there's the 0:37:57.030 --> 0:38:00.350 other close race, which is in Michigan, which currently leans 0:38:00.390 --> 0:38:04.110 Democrat with Abdul El-Sayed on average, polling about 3% ahead 0:38:04.290 --> 0:38:08.850 of former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. A Mars poll from 0:38:08.870 --> 0:38:12.830 late September has El-Sayed at 51 to Rogers 44, a 0:38:13.250 --> 0:38:17.319 seven point lead. That's El-Sayed's most favorable poll. A New 0:38:17.340 --> 0:38:20.440 York Times Siena poll from mid-September shows El-Sayed up five points. 0:38:21.120 --> 0:38:24.710 A Fox poll has him up one point. If Abdul wins, 0:38:25.090 --> 0:38:28.390 Dems could hold on to this seat, strengthening their chances 0:38:28.830 --> 0:38:30.980 of controlling the Senate. But this would not be a flip. 0:38:31.380 --> 0:38:33.000 So this is something that they really need to hold 0:38:33.120 --> 0:38:35.700 on to in order to have a chance. But this 0:38:35.719 --> 0:38:37.379 will not go towards the sort of four to five 0:38:37.420 --> 0:38:41.120 seats they need in order to flip. Before we close, 0:38:41.160 --> 0:38:42.299 I do want to just mention a few of the 0:38:42.340 --> 0:38:45.610 sort of underlying factors that could be influencing this election. 0:38:46.230 --> 0:38:49.029 One of the big ones just is Trump and how 0:38:49.070 --> 0:38:51.930 much everyone hates him. He has a 36% approval rating. 0:38:53.570 --> 0:38:58.180 which is the lowest pre-midterm approval rating in 50 years. Yeah, 0:38:58.219 --> 0:39:02.180 that makes sense. Not good. Not great for the Republicans. 0:39:02.500 --> 0:39:04.920 Not what you'd want, yeah. Not what you would want. 0:39:05.040 --> 0:39:07.460 And remember when I was talking about the enthusiasm gap 0:39:07.620 --> 0:39:11.709 that the Fox poll was showing? The latest KFF health 0:39:11.750 --> 0:39:15.250 tracking poll, it's from the organization formerly known as Kaiser 0:39:15.270 --> 0:39:20.030 Family Foundation. They found a very large enthusiasm gap between 0:39:20.090 --> 0:39:24.060 parties in their last poll with Democratic voters... Much more 0:39:24.100 --> 0:39:26.660 likely than Republican voters to say they're, quote, more motivated 0:39:26.780 --> 0:39:32.120 to vote this year. Way more than usual. It's 63% 0:39:32.120 --> 0:39:37.339 to 38%. That's a huge gap. The cost of healthcare 0:39:37.570 --> 0:39:43.270 and gas tie as voters' top affordability worries. A quarter 0:39:43.469 --> 0:39:45.950 of respondents said that they are very worried about affording 0:39:46.130 --> 0:39:51.069 each ahead of food, utilities, and housing. So 25% said 0:39:51.110 --> 0:39:54.450 they were very worried about affording health care. 25% said 0:39:54.690 --> 0:39:58.270 they're very worried about affording gas. So that's the tie. 0:39:58.690 --> 0:40:03.700 It's 50% of the concern. It's those two. The Democratic 0:40:03.719 --> 0:40:06.259 Party has a clear edge over the Republican Party on 0:40:06.400 --> 0:40:09.200 who voters trust to handle many top issues in the election, 0:40:09.280 --> 0:40:13.239 including cost of health care. 42% of respondents trust the 0:40:13.260 --> 0:40:16.770 Democrats more on these issues. For cost of living, 39% 0:40:16.770 --> 0:40:23.799 of respondents trust Democrats more, going to 25% for the Republicans. 0:40:24.380 --> 0:40:26.950 And the cost of living was the top issue for 0:40:27.030 --> 0:40:31.570 both Democrat and independent voters, while Republican voters wanted candidates 0:40:31.610 --> 0:40:36.090 to discuss, quote, fraud. That's the big issue for Republicans 0:40:36.150 --> 0:40:38.450 right now. This is, you know, J.D. Vance's task force, 0:40:38.489 --> 0:40:41.250 the post kind of doge thing, is they're really obsessed 0:40:41.270 --> 0:40:44.870 with this idea of fraud, and not really the type 0:40:44.930 --> 0:40:48.250 of fraud that Robert or I would talk about. You know, 0:40:48.430 --> 0:40:52.239 I think Everyone's pretty familiar with how much we're all 0:40:52.260 --> 0:40:56.040 being ripped off all the time. Scam culture is huge. 0:40:56.080 --> 0:41:00.640 Corporate fraud. The only culture. It's everything, right? And that's 0:41:00.700 --> 0:41:03.960 not what Republicans are interested in. They are wanting to 0:41:04.040 --> 0:41:06.540 kick people off public benefits, right? That's the type of 0:41:06.600 --> 0:41:10.259 fraud that they are mostly interested in. To close, the 0:41:10.320 --> 0:41:13.920 most interesting part about this KFF poll, though, is the 0:41:13.960 --> 0:41:18.459 numbers around Medicare for all. Quote, two thirds of the public, 66%, 0:41:18.460 --> 0:41:21.900 said they favor Medicare for All, the highest share KFF 0:41:21.960 --> 0:41:26.870 has recorded since it began polling the idea in 2016. And, 0:41:27.230 --> 0:41:31.810 this is the really crazy part, quote, about half, 52%, 0:41:31.810 --> 0:41:34.730 said they would favor Medicare for All if it eliminated 0:41:35.050 --> 0:41:39.719 private health insurance companies, while 47% oppose. That is a 0:41:39.800 --> 0:41:44.020 huge change from like five years ago. This has been 0:41:44.040 --> 0:41:46.840 the biggest kind of protest against Medicare for All is 0:41:46.860 --> 0:41:48.839 the idea that it would take away your private health care. 0:41:49.260 --> 0:41:52.580 When respondents get told this in polling, historically, we've seen 0:41:52.620 --> 0:41:55.460 support for Medicare for All take a big dip. This 0:41:55.520 --> 0:41:58.640 is the first time a majority of respondents have said 0:41:58.660 --> 0:42:01.839 they would still support Medicare for All if it took 0:42:01.890 --> 0:42:05.140 away private health care. To quote KFF, quote, This marks 0:42:05.200 --> 0:42:08.279 a departure from when KFF last asked this question in 0:42:08.360 --> 0:42:11.900 October 2020, when the prospect of eliminating private health insurance 0:42:11.940 --> 0:42:14.750 companies led to lower support for Medicare for All at 0:42:14.770 --> 0:42:18.509 just 37%. So this is a huge thing. And I 0:42:19.610 --> 0:42:21.730 would be remiss to mention, you know, most of these 0:42:21.870 --> 0:42:25.480 candidates we're talking about in the Senate, the Democratic ones, 0:42:25.520 --> 0:42:29.690 you know, Troy Jackson, Angie Nixon, Abdul, Al-Said, they are 0:42:29.989 --> 0:42:32.989 running on Medicare for all. This has become a big 0:42:33.050 --> 0:42:36.550 resurgent topic, this election. The cost of healthcare is a 0:42:36.570 --> 0:42:39.430 big topic in these midterms. And rather than doing this 0:42:39.450 --> 0:42:44.430 sort of Pete Buttigieg style, Medicare for all who want it, 0:42:44.489 --> 0:42:47.450 you know, just kind of vaguely talking about having a 0:42:47.570 --> 0:42:51.020 public option, right? These candidates are being a bit more 0:42:51.080 --> 0:42:54.819 strict about Medicare for all as like an actual policy 0:42:54.900 --> 0:42:59.180 and as a policy guarantee. I think Abdul's policy has 0:42:59.239 --> 0:43:02.980 some slight differences where it does not completely eliminate private 0:43:03.040 --> 0:43:05.680 health care, but it says that private health care should 0:43:05.800 --> 0:43:09.410 become redundant and still has a focus on a universal 0:43:09.530 --> 0:43:12.569 single payer system, which is much closer to the Bernie 0:43:12.610 --> 0:43:16.009 Sanders version than the sort of like half-assed versions that 0:43:16.030 --> 0:43:19.840 we've seen from other progressive candidates, you know, running for 0:43:19.880 --> 0:43:23.089 president like six years ago. So something that, you know, 0:43:23.730 --> 0:43:25.410 maybe two or three years ago, I felt like is 0:43:25.450 --> 0:43:27.650 kind of like a political, you know, bygone. This is 0:43:27.690 --> 0:43:30.410 focused on like Medicare for all is definitely coming back 0:43:30.760 --> 0:43:33.920 in a big way. And people are not nearly as 0:43:33.940 --> 0:43:36.300 scared of the prospect of them not having private insurance 0:43:37.219 --> 0:43:41.700 because private insurance sucks. Yeah, it's gotten even worse. Like 0:43:41.780 --> 0:43:45.739 we're what, like two years after the Mangione assassination, things 0:43:45.800 --> 0:43:48.200 still suck. Everyone still hates health care companies. 0:43:48.640 --> 0:43:48.819 Yeah. 0:43:49.420 --> 0:43:52.290 Only hate them more as time goes on. So, yeah, 0:43:52.330 --> 0:43:55.210 that is the kind of rough overview of the issues 0:43:55.250 --> 0:43:59.190 affecting the midterms and where the polling stands now just 0:43:59.390 --> 0:44:02.930 a few weeks away from November. I want to say third. 0:44:03.130 --> 0:44:04.710 Let's see if I'm right. I am right. 0:44:04.830 --> 0:44:05.069 Boom. 0:44:05.469 --> 0:44:07.910 We'll probably do a few more polling updates on executive 0:44:07.930 --> 0:44:11.640 disorder as we get closer to to Election Day. Absolutely. 0:44:12.160 --> 0:44:14.200 But yeah, that's that's all for me here. Yeah. 0:44:14.910 --> 0:44:17.799 Remember, guys, do what the IRGC would want you to do. 0:44:18.540 --> 0:44:21.940 Register to vote. We're not telling you to vote. 0:44:21.960 --> 0:44:25.089 The IRGC is. No, the Iranian government is. We're not. 0:44:30.080 --> 0:44:30.600 Good stuff. 0:44:41.830 --> 0:44:44.049 Welcome to It Could Happen Here, a podcast where the 0:44:44.150 --> 0:44:47.310 here is France and the it is it. 0:44:47.950 --> 0:44:49.470 I am your host, Mia Wong. 0:44:50.130 --> 0:44:53.330 And today we are going to be talking about the 0:44:53.770 --> 0:44:57.370 enormous and incredibly militant student protests in France. 0:44:57.530 --> 0:45:00.680 And with me to talk about this is Faiza, who 0:45:00.739 --> 0:45:04.259 is a political analyst and feminist theorist in France. And Faiza, 0:45:04.320 --> 0:45:05.100 welcome to the show. 0:45:05.120 --> 0:45:07.040 Thank you for having me, Mia. 0:45:07.140 --> 0:45:11.310 Hello, everybody. Yeah, I'm really excited to talk with you 0:45:11.350 --> 0:45:16.220 about this because there has been so much unbelievably wild 0:45:16.320 --> 0:45:20.580 stuff happening both good and bad and like oh my. 0:45:20.440 --> 0:45:25.339 God it's like hundreds of thousands of people in the 0:45:25.380 --> 0:45:36.850 streets most of whom are like 15 16 like oh my. 0:45:33.790 --> 0:45:37.509 God it is so exciting to watch I mean, I've 0:45:37.750 --> 0:45:41.299 wanted to see such an uprising for so long. And 0:45:41.380 --> 0:45:44.820 it's finally starting to happen. 0:45:45.239 --> 0:45:45.919 Yeah. 0:45:46.500 --> 0:45:49.100 It was a slow build up this past couple of years. 0:45:49.640 --> 0:45:53.440 But I feel like something is maybe happening. And not 0:45:53.480 --> 0:45:58.489 just in France. Like the whole Gen Z worldwide is 0:45:58.690 --> 0:46:05.210 really tired of this shit. And is hitting the streets. 0:46:05.270 --> 0:46:07.350 And I love it. And I'm here for it. 0:46:07.790 --> 0:46:08.450 It's amazing. 0:46:08.469 --> 0:46:09.220 It is. 0:46:09.360 --> 0:46:11.939 And yeah, we're going to be getting more into every 0:46:12.100 --> 0:46:13.480 other country that's also. 0:46:13.239 --> 0:46:16.399 Going on right now because it's, you know, it's like. 0:46:16.860 --> 0:46:18.840 It's like India and Spain and Chile. 0:46:18.880 --> 0:46:21.280 We've seen a whole bunch of other countries in the past. 0:46:21.620 --> 0:46:22.520 Yes, we have. 0:46:22.580 --> 0:46:25.340 Six months go up. But I guess I want to 0:46:25.540 --> 0:46:30.299 start with going a bit in to sort of the 0:46:30.380 --> 0:46:33.480 background of this and going into what, what the political 0:46:33.520 --> 0:46:37.580 situation has been in France that's sort of been leading 0:46:37.640 --> 0:46:39.799 up to this and what kinds of conditions have been 0:46:39.820 --> 0:46:41.480 sort of producing this? 0:46:42.440 --> 0:46:49.650 Well, have you heard of neoliberalism? No, like seriously, like that. 0:46:49.950 --> 0:46:50.270 Yeah. 0:46:50.350 --> 0:46:54.710 I mean, well, we've had Macron, which is our very 0:46:54.750 --> 0:46:58.750 dear president. No, I'm kidding. We fucking hate the guy. 0:47:00.190 --> 0:47:02.700 The guy is rotten to his very core. So, yeah, 0:47:03.460 --> 0:47:05.299 he's been president for almost 10 years now. 0:47:05.780 --> 0:47:06.549 Jesus Christ. 0:47:07.300 --> 0:47:07.590 Yeah. 0:47:09.150 --> 0:47:09.430 Yeah. 0:47:10.210 --> 0:47:14.969 And the utter and complete destruction of anything public, like 0:47:15.030 --> 0:47:19.280 public education, public health and everything, didn't start with him. 0:47:20.360 --> 0:47:25.180 But let's just say that he put the final nail 0:47:25.840 --> 0:47:31.029 on the proverbial coffin. And he's been like dismantling public 0:47:31.090 --> 0:47:35.399 education ever since he arrived in And took his job 0:47:35.420 --> 0:47:40.970 as president. And if you want an analogy or something 0:47:40.989 --> 0:47:44.030 in comparison with what's happening in the U.S. with respect 0:47:44.050 --> 0:47:49.320 to your public education. Well, when I saw, like, 10 0:47:49.320 --> 0:47:54.339 years ago, Betsy DeVos arrived as the Secretary of Education. Yeah. Well, 0:47:54.380 --> 0:48:01.540 you remember her? She basically destroyed anything public education-wise. Like 0:48:01.760 --> 0:48:06.000 she wanted to funnel all the money to private schools 0:48:06.060 --> 0:48:09.950 and charter schools. And that's basically what has been happening 0:48:09.969 --> 0:48:13.910 in France too, like in these past 10 years. All 0:48:13.989 --> 0:48:18.890 the money has been funneled in public. More or less 0:48:19.610 --> 0:48:23.529 legal ways to private schools. Yes, I see more or 0:48:23.550 --> 0:48:26.110 less legal ways because there are a lot of loopholes. 0:48:27.489 --> 0:48:35.080 And Macron and his government are experts at using those loopholes. Basically, 0:48:35.440 --> 0:48:37.739 they can look at you in the eye and tell 0:48:37.780 --> 0:48:40.719 you that what they're doing is legal, technically. 0:48:40.739 --> 0:48:41.899 Yeah. 0:48:42.480 --> 0:48:45.560 You know what I mean. And they will say that 0:48:45.580 --> 0:48:50.330 to your face while... destroying everything you hold near and 0:48:50.350 --> 0:48:55.090 dear at the same time. So these past 10 years, 0:48:55.110 --> 0:49:02.420 the money allocated to education has decreased. The number of 0:49:02.440 --> 0:49:07.120 teachers has tremendously decreased, like dramatically decreased. 0:49:07.260 --> 0:49:07.720 Jesus. 0:49:08.320 --> 0:49:13.779 The number of students by class has increased. The way 0:49:14.050 --> 0:49:18.080 this project started is, well, A school year in France 0:49:18.100 --> 0:49:23.960 started in September. It's basically from September to June, July. And, well, 0:49:24.760 --> 0:49:30.220 in the poorest areas of France, high schoolers arrived in 0:49:30.239 --> 0:49:34.870 their high schools and found basically not enough desks, not 0:49:34.910 --> 0:49:41.550 enough chairs, no teachers, holes everywhere. In the roof, water 0:49:41.630 --> 0:49:43.190 leaking in the classrooms. 0:49:44.050 --> 0:49:44.570 Yeah. 0:49:45.390 --> 0:49:47.689 No AC, like that goes without saying, like we don't 0:49:47.730 --> 0:49:52.200 have AC, like this is not the standard thing in France. 0:49:52.239 --> 0:49:56.280 So you could have like a hundred degrees Fahrenheit in, 0:49:56.880 --> 0:49:59.779 you know, and with no AC, like people, like high 0:49:59.800 --> 0:50:03.160 schoolers were cooking in their schools during the winter. 0:50:03.239 --> 0:50:03.390 Yeah. 0:50:06.620 --> 0:50:09.880 Some of these schools, the poorest schools, also don't have heat. 0:50:10.780 --> 0:50:12.040 Oh, Jesus. Yeah. 0:50:12.100 --> 0:50:13.980 So it's freezing. 0:50:14.000 --> 0:50:14.500 Oh, exactly. 0:50:14.520 --> 0:50:16.660 I'll let you imagine how you can, how can you... 0:50:17.600 --> 0:50:21.489 learn anything in school while freezing by, I don't know, 0:50:21.489 --> 0:50:23.410 50 degrees in your school. 0:50:23.469 --> 0:50:26.390 Yeah. Like, you know, like, I remember thinking back to 0:50:26.410 --> 0:50:29.730 my high school, and it's like, well, like, we occasionally 0:50:29.750 --> 0:50:32.740 had drowned rafts falling out of the ceiling, but, like, 0:50:32.840 --> 0:50:34.839 at least we had heat in the winter. Like, we 0:50:34.900 --> 0:50:36.100 would have all died. 0:50:36.120 --> 0:50:38.779 Even if the heat is out of the window, like, 0:50:40.300 --> 0:50:43.790 there's nothing left in some high schools. Like, really nothing. 0:50:44.290 --> 0:50:46.890 And The egregious thing is that you can have a 0:50:46.930 --> 0:50:52.500 very poor area with the poorest high schoolers, with the 0:50:52.520 --> 0:50:56.900 most destroyed high school you can see. And in the 0:50:56.940 --> 0:51:03.840 town nearby, you will find the best high schools with 0:51:03.930 --> 0:51:09.049 the richest population, like, For instance, in Paris, like you 0:51:09.090 --> 0:51:13.919 have Paris, the capital, and you have Parisian suburbs. Some 0:51:14.020 --> 0:51:17.440 are extremely rich and some are basically the poorest ones 0:51:18.219 --> 0:51:22.799 in the whole country. So what has happened is that 0:51:23.020 --> 0:51:27.160 we don't have states. We basically have regions and departments 0:51:27.180 --> 0:51:29.839 and stuff like that, like the way France is cut. 0:51:30.980 --> 0:51:34.700 The map is cut like that. And so the president of, 0:51:35.300 --> 0:51:38.489 it's called the Île-de-France. Basically, Paris is part of a region. 0:51:39.160 --> 0:51:43.410 The president of this region is a right-winger, pretty much 0:51:43.510 --> 0:51:48.970 far right, but officially she's only right-winger. And her specialty 0:51:49.010 --> 0:51:53.570 is to funnel money, public money, to private schools, private 0:51:53.590 --> 0:51:54.430 Catholic schools. 0:51:55.210 --> 0:51:55.990 Jesus Christ. 0:51:56.670 --> 0:51:58.310 Of course. 0:51:58.330 --> 0:51:59.290 Many, many such cases. 0:51:59.410 --> 0:52:04.910 I know, right? Amazing. You see the similarities with Betsy DeVos? 0:52:05.030 --> 0:52:06.530 Yeah, yeah. 0:52:06.690 --> 0:52:10.920 Yeah, that's basically, those two women are the same picture. 0:52:10.940 --> 0:52:13.640 Let's just say it like that. So that president has 0:52:13.680 --> 0:52:16.920 been putting a lot of public money in private schools 0:52:17.360 --> 0:52:20.900 in Paris and in the Paris suburb. Rich ones. But 0:52:21.400 --> 0:52:22.719 where is she taking that money? 0:52:22.980 --> 0:52:23.280 Yeah. 0:52:23.320 --> 0:52:23.400 Yeah. 0:52:24.100 --> 0:52:29.219 Well, instead of distributing this money equally across the whole 0:52:29.320 --> 0:52:34.150 territory that she's leading, she's only distributing that money to 0:52:34.170 --> 0:52:38.910 private schools, Catholic schools, and schools that are in the 0:52:38.950 --> 0:52:41.280 richest suburbs and in the richest area. 0:52:41.520 --> 0:52:42.140 That makes sense. 0:52:42.580 --> 0:52:46.259 So that's how you find yourself when you're poor, when 0:52:46.280 --> 0:52:48.720 you're a poor kid. growing up in a poor suburb 0:52:49.010 --> 0:52:51.670 that's how you find yourself going in a high school 0:52:52.150 --> 0:52:55.670 that has holes basically everywhere that doesn't have enough teachers 0:52:55.969 --> 0:52:59.770 that doesn't have enough desks enough chairs that is lacking 0:52:59.830 --> 0:53:03.910 basically everything that has rats running in in the hallways 0:53:04.030 --> 0:53:09.359 and yeah yeah so came last september like a month 0:53:09.420 --> 0:53:15.930 ago high schoolers went back to they found their school 0:53:16.330 --> 0:53:19.710 being just as bad as it was just before when 0:53:19.730 --> 0:53:23.529 they went for the summer holidays and stuff like that. 0:53:23.610 --> 0:53:27.180 And so they came back and they found no teacher. 0:53:28.100 --> 0:53:34.200 They found no desk, no chair, no nothing. And yeah, 0:53:34.320 --> 0:53:37.040 they were mad and they were right. And so they 0:53:37.140 --> 0:53:44.650 started to protest to ask for teachers, money for... desks 0:53:44.810 --> 0:53:48.569 for chairs I mean it's the most basic things like 0:53:48.590 --> 0:53:52.299 they're not asking for they're not asking for the the 0:53:52.340 --> 0:53:55.500 latest uh I don't know iPhone or iPad or whatever 0:53:55.520 --> 0:53:58.580 you know whatever the fuck no no they're asking for 0:53:58.600 --> 0:54:02.240 like the most basic necessities. 0:54:02.040 --> 0:54:05.259 Yeah like we're asking for to be a school like 0:54:05.360 --> 0:54:09.620 exactly desk plus teacher is like the most basic school 0:54:10.450 --> 0:54:12.230 like what what are we doing. 0:54:12.070 --> 0:54:16.439 Here And they're asking for a chance at life. 0:54:16.760 --> 0:54:17.240 Yeah. 0:54:17.260 --> 0:54:19.380 You know what I mean? Like, we have a system. 0:54:19.960 --> 0:54:21.920 It's a system that has been in place since 2018. 0:54:21.920 --> 0:54:28.090 It started, so, under Macron, again. And it's a very, 0:54:28.510 --> 0:54:32.279 very opaque system. It's a system that is designed... It's 0:54:32.340 --> 0:54:36.870 an algorithm, basically, that is designed to... Think for you 0:54:38.670 --> 0:54:41.210 what you're going to do next. Basically, when you're in 0:54:41.390 --> 0:54:44.049 10th grade, so I was telling you that before we 0:54:44.090 --> 0:54:48.080 started taping, but high school in France only has three 0:54:48.120 --> 0:54:52.000 years in it, like 10th to 12th grade. So when 0:54:52.040 --> 0:54:56.060 you get in 10th grade, you have to choose in 0:54:56.120 --> 0:54:59.030 10th grade what you're going to do in college or university. 0:54:59.910 --> 0:55:00.970 Which is ridiculous. 0:55:01.150 --> 0:55:02.490 It is utterly ridiculous. 0:55:02.510 --> 0:55:03.190 Like, granted. 0:55:03.310 --> 0:55:03.670 Awful. 0:55:03.969 --> 0:55:10.410 Why? You're... You're 15. You're 15. And people are asking 0:55:10.410 --> 0:55:14.529 15 years old to pick with high accuracy what they're 0:55:14.550 --> 0:55:17.229 going to do as adults for the rest of their lives. 0:55:17.370 --> 0:55:21.750 That is stressful. The level of stress these kids are 0:55:21.810 --> 0:55:24.670 facing is humongous. Ridiculous. Yeah. 0:55:25.270 --> 0:55:26.050 It is ridiculous. 0:55:26.510 --> 0:55:32.580 And the level of attempted suicide among high schoolers. has 0:55:32.820 --> 0:55:37.529 increased in a way that you cannot comprehend. Like, the 0:55:37.590 --> 0:55:44.589 numbers are terrifying. Also, that algorithm is a very racist one. 0:55:45.350 --> 0:55:46.609 It's a very classist one. 0:55:47.070 --> 0:55:47.850 Yeah. Yeah. 0:55:47.890 --> 0:55:51.330 It basically is a black box. Like people, we, the public, 0:55:51.370 --> 0:55:54.420 we don't know what's in the algorithm. Like we do 0:55:54.440 --> 0:55:57.279 not have access to it. The only thing that we 0:55:57.360 --> 0:56:01.000 know is the result. And the result is poor kids 0:56:01.400 --> 0:56:08.090 coming from poor areas have basically zero chance at getting 0:56:08.120 --> 0:56:13.149 access to a proper university or a university at all. 0:56:13.670 --> 0:56:14.010 Yeah. 0:56:14.230 --> 0:56:19.759 Like you could end in a queue, but like the 0:56:19.760 --> 0:56:25.960 5,000 kids in a queue to access a public university. 0:56:26.180 --> 0:56:29.720 I'm not talking about private schools. I'm talking about public schools. 0:56:29.940 --> 0:56:30.300 Yeah. 0:56:30.880 --> 0:56:35.370 It's something that is deeply unfair. It's a system of, 0:56:35.930 --> 0:56:39.029 that when I was in high school didn't exist. When 0:56:39.050 --> 0:56:41.520 I was in high school, like it was 20, 25 0:56:41.520 --> 0:56:44.860 years ago, I'm old. But yeah, when I was in 0:56:44.940 --> 0:56:46.779 high school, basically the only thing you had to do, 0:56:47.020 --> 0:56:49.380 you had an exam at the end of high school. 0:56:49.920 --> 0:56:53.390 And if you pass that exam, you could go to university. 0:56:54.010 --> 0:56:56.589 And that was it. And then the only thing that 0:56:56.670 --> 0:57:00.630 matters is was your grades in university. That's it. 0:57:00.890 --> 0:57:02.969 Which is also still like a stressful system, but it's like, 0:57:03.010 --> 0:57:04.310 we've made it worse. 0:57:06.469 --> 0:57:13.030 Exactly. It was a stressful system, but it made some sense. 0:57:13.250 --> 0:57:14.430 Yeah, yeah. 0:57:14.450 --> 0:57:15.850 There's a one-to-one correlation. 0:57:16.090 --> 0:57:20.290 Exactly. There was some logic behind it. The logic now 0:57:20.570 --> 0:57:24.750 is cruelty. It is violence. It is class violence. It 0:57:24.830 --> 0:57:33.980 is race violence. It is ableism, obviously, also. And kids, well, 0:57:34.000 --> 0:57:36.000 they arrive in high school and they already know that 0:57:36.060 --> 0:57:42.480 their life is screwed. That's what's happening. And the government, 0:57:42.500 --> 0:57:46.950 the state, doesn't give a fuck. Which is basically why 0:57:46.970 --> 0:57:50.130 you're seeing the footage you've been seeing for the last weeks. 0:57:50.750 --> 0:57:53.310 This is why the cops have been beating the shit 0:57:53.370 --> 0:57:55.980 out of high schoolers. because they don't give a fuck 0:57:56.020 --> 0:57:59.820 yeah and also they know that they don't have a 0:57:59.880 --> 0:58:01.000 choice what they're going to. 0:58:01.000 --> 0:58:04.200 Do yeah it reminds me so much of the protest 0:58:04.220 --> 0:58:06.439 in india where it's like yeah you're facing the same 0:58:06.500 --> 0:58:08.780 thing of like this i guess is one of the 0:58:08.900 --> 0:58:11.020 one of the things of neoliberalism was like on the 0:58:11.140 --> 0:58:15.180 one hand education was supposed to be like your ticket 0:58:15.340 --> 0:58:16.990 out right it was supposed to be like if you 0:58:17.640 --> 0:58:19.730 you know, like meritocratic, if you were like good enough, 0:58:19.770 --> 0:58:22.490 you could get into a like elite university and that 0:58:22.510 --> 0:58:25.590 was your like ticket out of poverty. And then simultaneously, 0:58:25.630 --> 0:58:28.710 we're going to make that impossible. And yeah, I mean, 0:58:28.730 --> 0:58:31.550 just like thinking about like, yeah, like this, the stories 0:58:31.590 --> 0:58:35.550 of these kids were forced into this like unbelievably intense, 0:58:36.370 --> 0:58:41.130 like competitive pressure and are just getting screwed out of 0:58:41.170 --> 0:58:45.010 the ability to fight their way out of the poverty 0:58:45.050 --> 0:58:46.710 that they've been born into and just. 0:58:46.570 --> 0:58:49.980 Being like, fuck this. If they're going to rig the system, 0:58:50.000 --> 0:58:51.700 we're like, the only thing we can go do is 0:58:51.740 --> 0:58:52.180 fight them. 0:58:52.420 --> 0:58:56.180 Exactly. And, you know, you were talking about like meritocracy, 0:58:56.560 --> 0:58:58.920 like I'm putting it in between quotes for people who 0:58:58.940 --> 0:58:59.520 can see me. 0:58:59.940 --> 0:59:02.230 Yeah. Well, I mean, it was, that, that term was 0:59:02.290 --> 0:59:07.190 originally a joke. It was originally a joke. It was 0:59:07.230 --> 0:59:08.330 invented as a joke. 0:59:08.790 --> 0:59:11.240 Like, and it's, it's the same thing with like the 0:59:11.280 --> 0:59:14.040 like pulling yourself up by your bootstraps the whole point 0:59:14.080 --> 0:59:15.820 of that is that you can't it was a joke 0:59:16.160 --> 0:59:17.990 but no we've like we decided this is a thing 0:59:18.010 --> 0:59:21.290 that exists in the world even though it doesn't god 0:59:22.170 --> 0:59:25.050 uh makes me insane all the time you can not. 0:59:25.300 --> 0:59:28.580 Create a parody out of this reality. Like the, it's 0:59:29.140 --> 0:59:33.610 the level of like a comedy of dramedy is, is 0:59:34.030 --> 0:59:34.590 got here. 0:59:34.730 --> 0:59:35.210 Yeah. 0:59:36.010 --> 0:59:40.130 I mean, talking about that, like a few days ago, um, 0:59:41.050 --> 0:59:45.090 we on my stream were watching a clip from the news. 0:59:45.150 --> 0:59:48.840 I don't remember which news outlet it was, but they 0:59:48.860 --> 0:59:52.140 were basically talking about a high school, a very famous one, uh, 0:59:52.640 --> 0:59:55.860 which is called Henri Quatre, Henry the fourth. And this 0:59:55.950 --> 0:59:59.070 high school is inside of Paris and it is well 0:59:59.110 --> 1:00:02.330 known for being like a very bourgeois high school. Like 1:00:02.780 --> 1:00:07.720 this is like basically as bourgeois as you can do, 1:00:08.880 --> 1:00:11.110 as you can get. Yeah, it's a rich kid one. 1:00:11.930 --> 1:00:14.790 The anchor, the news anchor, introduced this high school by 1:00:14.830 --> 1:00:20.010 telling that it was basically poster child for meritocracy. And 1:00:20.130 --> 1:00:25.120 I choked. I choked on my saliva. I was like, no, no, 1:00:25.540 --> 1:00:29.760 you mean it's bourgeoisie. You used a word instead of 1:00:29.780 --> 1:00:34.360 another word. That's not meritocracy. That's bourgeoisie. But basically, that's 1:00:34.390 --> 1:00:36.430 the same thing. And thank you for saying it out loud. 1:00:36.510 --> 1:00:37.510 I was like, thank you. 1:00:38.110 --> 1:00:38.490 Yeah. 1:00:38.830 --> 1:00:41.090 And it's so funny because it's like it is in 1:00:41.140 --> 1:00:44.160 the original sense, which is that it was a joke 1:00:44.220 --> 1:00:46.520 about how it was just rich kids who got into college. 1:00:46.840 --> 1:00:48.920 But like it's not in the sense you're trying to 1:00:49.070 --> 1:00:49.510 use it. 1:00:49.610 --> 1:00:50.570 Like, come on. 1:00:50.610 --> 1:00:53.790 Yeah, neoliberalism saw the joke and was like, yeah, you 1:00:53.810 --> 1:00:56.150 know what I can do about it? I can rip 1:00:56.210 --> 1:00:58.280 the joke out of it. And I can just keep 1:00:58.320 --> 1:01:01.420 the word and make it something real. How about it? 1:01:01.480 --> 1:01:01.620 Yeah. 1:01:01.680 --> 1:01:04.380 It's like, what if all of the metaphors became literal now? 1:01:05.040 --> 1:01:06.860 And that's like the world that we live in. 1:01:07.060 --> 1:01:07.600 Exactly. 1:01:07.620 --> 1:01:11.760 That's the fucking world we live in. Absolutely. The kids 1:01:11.920 --> 1:01:14.940 have no prospects. I mean, they don't have any in 1:01:14.960 --> 1:01:19.520 the US. Like Gen Z won't be able to buy 1:01:19.540 --> 1:01:22.700 a house. That's the same thing in France. Like that's 1:01:22.720 --> 1:01:25.280 the same thing in Spain. That's the same thing in Chile. 1:01:25.320 --> 1:01:30.130 That's the same thing in every country. capitalist capitalistic based 1:01:30.170 --> 1:01:34.690 society basically so yeah what we're seeing worldwide what we 1:01:34.730 --> 1:01:38.730 were seeing in france right now is the product of 1:01:39.170 --> 1:01:41.430 what you're seeing in the u.s it's product of what 1:01:41.450 --> 1:01:46.350 you're seeing in spain it's yeah the neoliberal order it's 1:01:46.490 --> 1:01:51.280 white supremacy and of course i mean to be honest 1:01:51.360 --> 1:01:55.320 it's the least surprising thing ever like It's basically one 1:01:55.340 --> 1:01:58.450 plus one equals two. That's what we're seeing. It's a 1:01:58.490 --> 1:02:03.050 logical product of our society. So yeah, the kids are mad. 1:02:03.390 --> 1:02:05.610 They have the right to be, and I'm fully supportive. 1:02:05.970 --> 1:02:06.790 Like, really. 1:02:07.010 --> 1:02:07.190 Yeah. 1:02:08.170 --> 1:02:11.390 So we're going to take an ad break because, yeah, 1:02:11.430 --> 1:02:15.940 we too are subject to the horrifying violence and whimsy 1:02:16.200 --> 1:02:18.340 of neoliberal capitalism. 1:02:18.740 --> 1:02:19.200 I hear you. 1:02:19.220 --> 1:02:20.000 I hear you. 1:02:30.710 --> 1:02:36.040 And we are back. So let's talk about what the 1:02:36.100 --> 1:02:37.860 students have been up to. 1:02:37.880 --> 1:02:40.760 You mean on the streets or do you mean on 1:02:41.500 --> 1:02:42.440 social media? 1:02:42.460 --> 1:02:46.150 Yeah, let's get into, I guess, the streets first. What 1:02:46.210 --> 1:02:48.690 have the students been doing? What kinds of tactics have 1:02:48.710 --> 1:02:49.470 they been using? 1:02:49.490 --> 1:02:53.570 So they've been using blockades, a lot of them. Which 1:02:53.620 --> 1:02:57.410 is basically a French tradition. We're very good at that. 1:02:57.470 --> 1:03:00.830 Like whenever there's a protest, especially high school protests and 1:03:00.890 --> 1:03:05.950 student protests, we build blockades. So we go for a disruption. 1:03:06.450 --> 1:03:10.690 So the purpose is to disrupt high schools, is to 1:03:10.710 --> 1:03:18.830 disrupt universities, and to push the adults, basically. to listen 1:03:18.850 --> 1:03:22.450 to the kids and what they want. So that's what 1:03:22.510 --> 1:03:29.910 has been happening, except that our dear government basically says, fuck, 1:03:30.390 --> 1:03:35.950 we don't care, and sent the fuzz. So the cops 1:03:36.030 --> 1:03:40.950 have been answering to the protest by mutilating kids. 1:03:40.970 --> 1:03:41.090 Yeah. 1:03:41.950 --> 1:03:46.910 And mutilating adults, basically. That's been this government's response to 1:03:47.070 --> 1:03:52.530 any protest since 2017, since Macron arrived in the Élysée, 1:03:52.550 --> 1:03:57.970 which is our White House, basically. So this time around, 1:03:58.330 --> 1:04:02.410 even news anchors have been taken aback by the violence 1:04:03.250 --> 1:04:04.190 coming from the cops. 1:04:04.990 --> 1:04:09.570 Yeah, because it's like actual children. It is. 1:04:10.170 --> 1:04:13.960 It's children... But on the other side, you have an 1:04:14.020 --> 1:04:20.300 authoritarian regime. Yeah. And what is evidently behaving as a 1:04:20.320 --> 1:04:23.070 police state. I mean, come on. 1:04:24.470 --> 1:04:27.210 Yeah, like you're blowing kids' hands off. 1:04:28.910 --> 1:04:32.370 You know who they've been getting their inspiration from? 1:04:32.390 --> 1:04:33.930 The US? 1:04:34.730 --> 1:04:34.890 ICE. 1:04:35.590 --> 1:04:36.250 Yeah. 1:04:36.410 --> 1:04:36.770 Yeah. 1:04:37.030 --> 1:04:37.490 Yeah. 1:04:38.300 --> 1:04:42.040 Our government, when they saw ICE, when they saw... how, 1:04:42.400 --> 1:04:48.980 quote unquote, effective ICE is at handling the public and 1:04:49.000 --> 1:04:49.840 handling protests. 1:04:50.300 --> 1:04:50.680 Yeah. 1:04:51.110 --> 1:04:53.910 They didn't even hide that it was their wood dreams. 1:04:54.630 --> 1:04:59.610 What we're seeing is the logical evolution of policing in 1:04:59.650 --> 1:05:01.270 a neoliberal society. 1:05:01.370 --> 1:05:01.690 Yeah. 1:05:02.010 --> 1:05:04.880 Like the kids are asking for the most basic stuff 1:05:05.320 --> 1:05:09.250 and the most basic stuff could lead to a semblance 1:05:09.450 --> 1:05:15.010 of equality. And they cannot have that. So let's just 1:05:15.070 --> 1:05:18.010 send the cops. Let's just bit the shit out of 1:05:18.070 --> 1:05:23.320 the kids and terrorize the fuck out of adults. And 1:05:23.360 --> 1:05:28.320 let's teach everybody, the whole population, what protest looks like. 1:05:28.720 --> 1:05:33.740 It looks like blood. It looks like amputation. It looks 1:05:33.780 --> 1:05:36.840 like losing an eye. The purpose is very clear. It's 1:05:36.860 --> 1:05:40.030 to put the fear of God in the population. Once 1:05:40.110 --> 1:05:44.550 the population is scared shitless, the said population will stop 1:05:44.590 --> 1:05:46.930 protesting and start complaining. Yeah. 1:05:47.330 --> 1:05:52.070 Which, I will say, the kind of upside of drawing 1:05:52.390 --> 1:05:55.660 from the American ICE anti-protest model is that that didn't work. 1:05:56.300 --> 1:05:58.660 Doing that stuff in the US just pissed everyone off, 1:05:58.740 --> 1:06:00.520 and it was only when they stopped doing that kind 1:06:00.540 --> 1:06:04.710 of confrontation and, like, move to this like quiet ethnic 1:06:04.750 --> 1:06:07.880 cleansing model i guess where they didn't do comfort mass 1:06:07.890 --> 1:06:12.360 confrontation that like everything kind of i don't know that 1:06:12.380 --> 1:06:14.600 they were like really effectively able to carry out the 1:06:14.640 --> 1:06:17.910 ethnic cleansing which is bleak in its own right but 1:06:17.950 --> 1:06:20.610 like it did it did backfire on them like sort 1:06:20.650 --> 1:06:21.890 of spectacularly yeah. 1:06:22.490 --> 1:06:25.790 But it was a polite ethnic cleansing like What is 1:06:25.830 --> 1:06:29.390 scaring me, and it's not surprising, but it's still scary 1:06:29.430 --> 1:06:32.400 as fuck, is that you can do the most violent 1:06:32.480 --> 1:06:36.450 things with a polite tone and people just. 1:06:36.890 --> 1:06:38.150 Yeah, yeah. 1:06:38.560 --> 1:06:41.240 Stop look at it and just keep living their lives 1:06:41.550 --> 1:06:44.210 as long as it's polite as long as it doesn't 1:06:44.230 --> 1:06:46.130 make a lot of noise as long as it's not 1:06:46.150 --> 1:06:51.170 disruptive yeah and our government really understands that but yours also. 1:06:50.950 --> 1:06:53.930 Does sort of i feel like they're they're kind of 1:06:53.990 --> 1:06:58.180 like like our government's like because our entire government is 1:06:58.240 --> 1:07:02.220 like designed to produce content it took them a while 1:07:02.240 --> 1:07:03.720 to figure out that this is the way that you 1:07:03.740 --> 1:07:06.180 should actually do it because their initial instinct was just 1:07:06.200 --> 1:07:09.820 to like do these giant confrontations to produce content out of, 1:07:09.860 --> 1:07:13.300 and then eventually they realize, like, if you just do 1:07:13.360 --> 1:07:15.600 it quietly, then you can actually do the thing. 1:07:15.620 --> 1:07:15.690 But. 1:07:16.580 --> 1:07:20.180 Yeah, because if you do it quietly, then you get 1:07:20.240 --> 1:07:23.330 the liberals behind you. Because liberals, at the end of 1:07:23.350 --> 1:07:26.730 the day... They're not disruptive. Like, they want to keep 1:07:26.770 --> 1:07:27.650 on living their lives. 1:07:27.790 --> 1:07:28.150 Yeah. 1:07:28.330 --> 1:07:31.140 They want to keep on, like, being able to consume. 1:07:31.180 --> 1:07:34.500 They want to be able to go to the movies 1:07:34.620 --> 1:07:41.300 and go on vacation. And, like, they need that kind 1:07:41.320 --> 1:07:45.320 of scope. They need that sense of normalcy to keep 1:07:45.380 --> 1:07:48.400 on going and protest, like, disrupt that sense of normalcy. 1:07:48.660 --> 1:07:48.780 Yeah. 1:07:48.800 --> 1:07:53.700 So once you get back to a semblance of normalcy, you... 1:07:53.810 --> 1:07:57.030 Get liberals on your side, basically. Or at least you 1:07:57.050 --> 1:08:01.010 stop having liberals against you. Yeah. And yeah, that's what 1:08:01.050 --> 1:08:04.640 has been happening in the US. That's how our government 1:08:04.700 --> 1:08:09.180 has been rolling for the past almost 10 years now. 1:08:10.340 --> 1:08:12.660 What has been happening, though, with this protest is that 1:08:12.760 --> 1:08:16.620 liberals have been watching their own kids being beaten up. 1:08:16.920 --> 1:08:17.270 Yeah. 1:08:17.400 --> 1:08:22.050 They've been watching their own kids losing eyes, like being arrested. 1:08:22.070 --> 1:08:22.150 Yeah. 1:08:23.050 --> 1:08:26.040 Put up in jail and stuff like that. And that 1:08:26.120 --> 1:08:30.400 is way too disruptive. This doesn't fly. So they're going 1:08:30.439 --> 1:08:34.040 to find another way to do things. I mean, I 1:08:34.100 --> 1:08:36.200 know how they're going to do stuff. They're just going 1:08:36.240 --> 1:08:40.470 to point their fingers at black and brown folks and 1:08:40.870 --> 1:08:44.559 say that these kids are the bad ones. And they 1:08:44.600 --> 1:08:49.430 deserve everything that's happening to them and that they are 1:08:49.729 --> 1:08:52.670 like manipulating the good white kids and stuff like that, 1:08:52.810 --> 1:08:57.439 like through social media, through So what our government also 1:08:57.470 --> 1:09:01.769 has been doing these past almost 10 years is vilifying 1:09:02.430 --> 1:09:06.650 anything remotely left-wing. Like, I don't know if you know 1:09:06.670 --> 1:09:07.530 Jean-Luc Mélenchon. 1:09:07.810 --> 1:09:12.100 Yeah, he's the kind of... The media used to describe 1:09:12.110 --> 1:09:17.940 him as like Francis Birdie, but he's like, Actually. 1:09:18.160 --> 1:09:21.150 That's not so far-fetched. I would say that he's not 1:09:21.370 --> 1:09:23.929 as left-leaning as Bernie. 1:09:24.350 --> 1:09:24.790 Yeah. 1:09:25.250 --> 1:09:27.670 It's very funny because, like, when you read about him 1:09:27.689 --> 1:09:30.410 in the press, he gets described as, like, the hard 1:09:30.510 --> 1:09:31.030 left guy. 1:09:31.060 --> 1:09:33.019 And he's like, no, he's not. This guy's, like, to 1:09:33.040 --> 1:09:35.080 the right of, like, the PCF, who were, like. 1:09:35.360 --> 1:09:40.939 Oh, no, no. His political party, France Unabashed, La France Insoumise, 1:09:41.300 --> 1:09:47.070 has been categorized as far-left. It's social democracy. 1:09:47.090 --> 1:09:50.470 Social democracy, yeah. It's like, what are we doing here? 1:09:50.490 --> 1:09:53.300 They're not revolutionary at all. 1:09:53.340 --> 1:09:54.759 They're not anti-capitalist. 1:09:54.780 --> 1:09:59.139 They're trying to save capitalism from you. And you're like, no, 1:09:59.180 --> 1:10:00.660 you're communist. It's like, no. 1:10:00.700 --> 1:10:06.960 No, they're not even socialist. They're not a less harmful capitalism. 1:10:06.979 --> 1:10:13.030 It's really social democracy. It's Bernie core democracy. basically. But 1:10:13.610 --> 1:10:16.439 they might be a little bit more radical than Bernie 1:10:16.900 --> 1:10:20.200 here and there. Bernie can be more radical in some stances, 1:10:20.640 --> 1:10:23.680 but you know, none of them, neither Bernie nor Mélenchon 1:10:23.820 --> 1:10:27.460 are far, far left. Like they're not, they're just not. 1:10:27.800 --> 1:10:32.820 But when you have such reactionary politics in power, anything 1:10:32.880 --> 1:10:38.070 remotely left-leaning seems far left. So This is how they've 1:10:38.090 --> 1:10:41.370 been presenting our opposition. And so coming back to what 1:10:41.390 --> 1:10:44.850 I was telling you, they are linking the protest to 1:10:45.210 --> 1:10:48.990 the France Unabashed Party, saying that it was created. 1:10:49.010 --> 1:10:49.770 Yeah. 1:10:50.189 --> 1:10:54.680 It originated from France Unabashed and that this political party 1:10:55.120 --> 1:11:00.240 is instrumentalizing the protest and is basically, it's a big puppeteer. 1:11:02.550 --> 1:11:05.110 The youth yeah this is like exactly the same shit 1:11:05.130 --> 1:11:07.470 they did in india except for india there was like 1:11:07.510 --> 1:11:10.490 i guess well actually i i don't know if if 1:11:10.530 --> 1:11:13.070 the french government has pulled the islamist card yet but 1:11:13.170 --> 1:11:15.450 like that was the other one oh it already has 1:11:15.470 --> 1:11:17.820 yeah yeah they're all the same like. 1:11:18.350 --> 1:11:26.580 Scott islamophobia transphobia those two things are at the very 1:11:26.620 --> 1:11:32.300 core of our reactionary figures political figures and as they 1:11:32.520 --> 1:11:37.060 are as yours and and my like this is white 1:11:37.100 --> 1:11:42.009 supremacy basically like they're defending what they see as whiteness 1:11:42.990 --> 1:11:48.089 and white femininity and islam to them is a danger 1:11:48.130 --> 1:11:52.130 to white women and so is the existence of trans 1:11:52.210 --> 1:11:59.560 folks so yeah yeah they're coming they're trying left-leaning to 1:12:00.580 --> 1:12:07.580 trans folks islam uh hamas obviously of course and yeah 1:12:07.600 --> 1:12:09.820 the muslim brotherhood jesus. 1:12:09.600 --> 1:12:11.860 Christ at least well okay i'm not gonna say at 1:12:11.960 --> 1:12:15.640 least but like that that was the the one thing 1:12:15.700 --> 1:12:17.850 in the u.s to be at least kind of moved 1:12:17.930 --> 1:12:22.599 past was like we at least kind of stopped accusing 1:12:22.660 --> 1:12:25.019 everything of being the Muslim Brotherhood because a bunch of 1:12:25.050 --> 1:12:26.510 people started taking money from the UAE. 1:12:27.150 --> 1:12:29.809 And then it was like, okay, we're going to quiet 1:12:29.830 --> 1:12:30.540 it down a little bit. 1:12:30.550 --> 1:12:33.750 It's the same thing in France. The UAE have a 1:12:33.790 --> 1:12:37.950 lot of financial interest in France. But they're the good ones. 1:12:38.170 --> 1:12:39.840 But they still do the loss of brotherhood. 1:12:39.910 --> 1:12:42.180 Yeah, but they're the good Muslims because, you know, they 1:12:42.200 --> 1:12:46.000 invest a lot of money. Yeah, yeah. So that's okay. 1:12:46.020 --> 1:12:48.220 We can do business with them. So if we want 1:12:48.240 --> 1:12:51.300 to do business with them, we have to be able 1:12:51.320 --> 1:12:54.590 to say that they're the good ones. So the good ones. 1:12:55.460 --> 1:12:55.920 Yeah. 1:12:56.280 --> 1:12:57.280 Algeria. 1:12:57.300 --> 1:12:57.520 Yeah. 1:12:57.760 --> 1:13:02.960 Palestine and other Muslim countries. Not so much. Not so much. 1:13:02.979 --> 1:13:05.760 I feel like we kind of moved from like, it 1:13:05.820 --> 1:13:07.640 used to be everything was the Muslim Brotherhood and then 1:13:07.660 --> 1:13:11.640 that changed into everything is Hamas. But it's like, at 1:13:12.090 --> 1:13:15.809 least we moved from one to the other. But it's like, no, no, 1:13:15.830 --> 1:13:18.920 we're still doing the Muslim Brotherhood thing. God damn it. 1:13:18.930 --> 1:13:22.470 Islamophobia is so... Raw. 1:13:22.600 --> 1:13:23.689 Like, so raw. 1:13:24.110 --> 1:13:27.630 They don't even think about, like, are they Shiite? Are 1:13:27.670 --> 1:13:29.590 they Sunni? Are they, like... No. 1:13:29.689 --> 1:13:29.889 No. 1:13:30.130 --> 1:13:31.590 Not at all. No, that's like. 1:13:31.710 --> 1:13:33.299 They're just Muslim. 1:13:34.280 --> 1:13:38.219 The problem is Islam. The problem is brown and black people. Yeah. 1:13:38.380 --> 1:13:42.540 And the problem is the left... which is defending Hamas, 1:13:42.580 --> 1:13:46.840 which is defending the Muslim Brotherhood, which is defending trans folks. 1:13:47.420 --> 1:13:51.170 When you look at the arguments, that's basically what they're saying. 1:13:53.110 --> 1:13:55.330 And I'm not even exaggerating. I wish I were, but 1:13:55.370 --> 1:14:00.710 I'm not. And it's like, they're not even trying. It's 1:14:00.770 --> 1:14:04.150 so obvious. But it's the same argument that has been 1:14:04.290 --> 1:14:10.300 fed to the population through our media platforms. for years now. 1:14:10.460 --> 1:14:13.970 So yeah, people like just eat it up. 1:14:14.590 --> 1:14:14.940 Yeah. 1:14:15.070 --> 1:14:17.490 And I guess that leads into this question of like, 1:14:17.930 --> 1:14:22.370 how has the rest of French society been reacting to this? 1:14:22.590 --> 1:14:25.110 Have other sort of like movements been mobilizing? 1:14:25.130 --> 1:14:26.690 Yeah. 1:14:27.479 --> 1:14:32.060 Well, I was going to say apathy, which is kind 1:14:32.100 --> 1:14:35.580 of true. If you look at people on the center 1:14:36.200 --> 1:14:39.920 and on the right, it's apathy. It is, They just 1:14:39.960 --> 1:14:43.020 want to be able to wear their heads in the 1:14:43.080 --> 1:14:46.979 sand and keep on going, just like doing business as usual. 1:14:47.780 --> 1:14:52.059 Left-leaning people, some of them are scared. Some of them 1:14:52.120 --> 1:14:55.910 are in disbelief. Like they want to believe that if 1:14:55.970 --> 1:14:59.729 things were as bad as Gen Z is saying it is, 1:15:00.450 --> 1:15:03.730 they would have somehow managed to see it. 1:15:03.729 --> 1:15:05.769 Yeah. 1:15:06.830 --> 1:15:10.220 The majority of people still believe that the media are 1:15:10.240 --> 1:15:13.940 a honest actor, which they are not. They haven't been 1:15:13.979 --> 1:15:18.100 for years. And as long as, basically, as long as 1:15:18.140 --> 1:15:23.510 people keep believing what the media, like mainstream media, traditional 1:15:23.550 --> 1:15:27.750 media feeds them, then they're not going to be able 1:15:27.790 --> 1:15:28.970 to see the problem. 1:15:29.010 --> 1:15:29.190 Yeah. 1:15:30.189 --> 1:15:32.270 And it's the same thing in the US. I mean, 1:15:32.979 --> 1:15:36.360 if people keep watching CNN and MSNBC and stuff like that, 1:15:36.840 --> 1:15:41.180 how can they possibly know how bad things are on 1:15:41.200 --> 1:15:48.550 the ground? They cannot. They cannot. So that's where we are. 1:15:49.450 --> 1:15:52.469 And it's scary, but it's the truth. 1:15:53.030 --> 1:15:58.750 There's this quote from the sociologist Raul Zebechi about how Basically, 1:15:59.030 --> 1:16:00.910 one of the things that social movements do is like 1:16:00.990 --> 1:16:03.870 in these moments of rupture, they act like bolts of 1:16:03.930 --> 1:16:07.710 lightning across the sky, like illuminating the darkness. And that's 1:16:08.250 --> 1:16:11.729 what social movements do to the actual fundamental nature of reality. 1:16:11.750 --> 1:16:14.910 They reveal the structures of like power and domination in 1:16:14.950 --> 1:16:18.429 the world that are otherwise hidden by the sort of darkness. 1:16:18.470 --> 1:16:20.940 And that's what you're trying. But part of what you're 1:16:20.979 --> 1:16:24.380 trying to do with these protests is to like make 1:16:24.439 --> 1:16:28.160 the actual function of society visible. clear for a moment 1:16:28.280 --> 1:16:31.400 where i don't know if there is a more clear 1:16:31.439 --> 1:16:35.019 expression of what neoliberalism is than we took all the 1:16:35.060 --> 1:16:37.240 money from the schools and gave it to the cops. 1:16:37.680 --> 1:16:41.230 Yeah yeah a lot of signs during the protest like 1:16:41.530 --> 1:16:46.250 down the streets explicitly say that yeah like the kids 1:16:46.350 --> 1:16:50.189 know where the money is yeah it is funneled to 1:16:50.210 --> 1:16:53.850 the very rich through state subsidies and stuff like that 1:16:53.880 --> 1:16:57.070 and it is funneled to the cops and to the 1:16:57.150 --> 1:17:01.510 military complex, defense complex, and contractors and stuff like that. 1:17:01.630 --> 1:17:04.150 They know where it's going. So they know there is money. 1:17:05.100 --> 1:17:07.800 Even when our presidents say that there is no money 1:17:07.840 --> 1:17:11.990 left for anything. Like, no, there's always money for the rich, somehow. 1:17:12.790 --> 1:17:13.269 Go figure. 1:17:13.290 --> 1:17:13.950 Yeah, yeah. 1:17:13.970 --> 1:17:16.190 There's always money for the police, too. 1:17:16.830 --> 1:17:19.430 Exactly, there's always more money for the police, there's always 1:17:19.490 --> 1:17:23.030 more budget for the military, there's always more budget for 1:17:23.060 --> 1:17:27.840 the cops, there's always less budget for hospitals, there's always 1:17:27.979 --> 1:17:30.639 less budget for teachers and schools and stuff like that. So, 1:17:31.420 --> 1:17:34.880 people are not stupid. So they kind of, like, can 1:17:34.900 --> 1:17:39.480 put two and two together. But, People knowing what's happening 1:17:39.520 --> 1:17:42.860 and people acting on what they know, that's two entirely 1:17:43.300 --> 1:17:43.760 different things. 1:17:44.160 --> 1:17:44.559 Yeah. 1:17:44.760 --> 1:17:49.479 And that's where the issue is, is what people know, 1:17:49.880 --> 1:17:54.370 people feel the problem like every end of the month 1:17:55.010 --> 1:17:57.550 when they realize that they don't have any money left 1:17:57.610 --> 1:18:02.250 in the bank for food and for anything. Yeah. But 1:18:02.930 --> 1:18:06.490 they don't act on it. Like, it feels impossible to 1:18:06.530 --> 1:18:11.729 get out of this way of life for the majority 1:18:11.770 --> 1:18:12.170 of people. 1:18:12.670 --> 1:18:12.810 Yeah. 1:18:14.390 --> 1:18:17.839 Call that the liberal mindset also? Like, do you know 1:18:17.850 --> 1:18:20.300 Thought Slime? Like, do you know the YouTuber Thought Slime? 1:18:20.580 --> 1:18:21.720 Vaguely familiar. 1:18:23.260 --> 1:18:27.640 They made a wonderful video about the way liberals think 1:18:27.680 --> 1:18:32.780 inside of a box and how even the most revolutionary 1:18:33.060 --> 1:18:38.900 thoughts are still imprisoned within that scope of thought for liberals. 1:18:38.979 --> 1:18:43.930 Like that scope of thought basically is what makes Bernie 1:18:43.930 --> 1:18:46.450 or Mélenchon far left to them. 1:18:46.450 --> 1:18:46.860 Yeah. 1:18:47.420 --> 1:18:52.180 Because it is so out of their deep possibilities to 1:18:52.220 --> 1:18:56.300 them that it feels revolutionary, even though it is absolutely 1:18:56.360 --> 1:18:57.220 not revolutionary. 1:18:57.320 --> 1:18:57.639 Yeah. 1:18:58.040 --> 1:19:02.550 And that's why people stay in that apathetic state. Like, 1:19:02.770 --> 1:19:07.230 it feels impossible to them to ask for the most 1:19:07.250 --> 1:19:12.000 basic stuff. And that's what keeps... people in that loop 1:19:12.080 --> 1:19:16.140 of work, waking up, going to work, going back home, 1:19:16.200 --> 1:19:19.360 wondering how you're going to pay the bills, going to 1:19:19.400 --> 1:19:22.979 sleep and going back to work the next morning. So 1:19:24.020 --> 1:19:26.700 I don't think that people don't know what the issue is. 1:19:27.450 --> 1:19:30.189 But I think the issue is that people feel like 1:19:30.229 --> 1:19:33.090 they have no leverage on their own lives and on 1:19:33.130 --> 1:19:38.450 their own governments. And if we stay in a liberal mindset, 1:19:38.570 --> 1:19:41.390 I think they're right. Which is why we have to 1:19:41.430 --> 1:19:43.850 get out of that liberal mindset. Which is how we 1:19:43.890 --> 1:19:50.330 have to throw away the liberal playbook. Because if we 1:19:50.390 --> 1:19:53.189 keep on playing by those rules, we're fucked. 1:19:53.970 --> 1:20:00.019 Yeah, you either get more Macron or you get the inheritors. 1:20:00.180 --> 1:20:03.160 You either get the indirect inheritors of the SS or 1:20:03.180 --> 1:20:04.640 you get the direct inheritors of the SS. 1:20:06.120 --> 1:20:09.360 Exactly, exactly. And they're all defending the same thing. They're 1:20:09.380 --> 1:20:14.260 defending capitalism. Yeah. They're defending the very rich. And we 1:20:14.300 --> 1:20:18.019 already know who the very rich are. We saw that 1:20:18.060 --> 1:20:21.980 about 100 years ago. So we know who they're rolling for. 1:20:22.620 --> 1:20:23.920 They're rolling for fascism. 1:20:23.939 --> 1:20:25.660 Yeah. 1:20:26.010 --> 1:20:28.390 That's all there is. So as long as we keep 1:20:28.810 --> 1:20:32.510 trying to adapt and keep on trying to save liberalism, 1:20:33.689 --> 1:20:37.450 We're not going to save us, ourselves. Like, we're not 1:20:37.470 --> 1:20:41.030 going to save the population. We're just going to save capitalism. 1:20:41.950 --> 1:20:55.260 It drives me crazy. 1:20:55.300 --> 1:21:01.080 Speaking of doing things, of, like, finding alternatives to saving liberalism, like, 1:21:01.100 --> 1:21:06.030 this is all happening... At the same time as the 1:21:06.090 --> 1:21:09.139 giant sort of mass movement in Spain has kicked off. 1:21:09.300 --> 1:21:09.610 Yes. 1:21:10.520 --> 1:21:14.560 Which is about, for people unfamiliar, I guess the short 1:21:14.600 --> 1:21:19.740 and incredibly bleak version is that basically Spanish authorities evicted a. 1:21:19.840 --> 1:21:22.259 I think it was like an 80, 90-year-old woman. 1:21:22.280 --> 1:21:24.900 She was 87, I think. Yeah. 1:21:24.960 --> 1:21:25.679 Yeah, 87. 1:21:25.680 --> 1:21:29.120 And she fucking died because of it. And this has 1:21:29.160 --> 1:21:33.240 set off a massive, massive, series of protests I think 1:21:33.260 --> 1:21:35.520 they put like a couple days ago so we're recording 1:21:35.560 --> 1:21:38.320 this on like Friday October 9th I think like I 1:21:38.340 --> 1:21:40.430 think on like the 8th they put a hundred thousand 1:21:40.470 --> 1:21:44.410 people like in the streets of Barcelona over this there's 1:21:44.450 --> 1:21:47.340 been a you know they've been reoccupying some of like 1:21:47.420 --> 1:21:50.980 the core sort of places where Like the year the 1:21:50.979 --> 1:21:53.670 2011 protests were born and like that sort of the thing, 1:21:53.689 --> 1:21:55.870 the thing that became Occupy, like the movement of the squares. 1:21:56.270 --> 1:21:59.310 There still is a massive protest in Madrid. And yeah, 1:21:59.410 --> 1:21:59.630 it is. 1:21:59.790 --> 1:22:00.310 Yeah. 1:22:00.870 --> 1:22:04.010 It is beautiful to see the solidarity around that woman 1:22:04.870 --> 1:22:09.690 and around her situation, how she's been evicted from the 1:22:09.710 --> 1:22:12.830 place she was living for over seven decades. 1:22:14.350 --> 1:22:15.230 Yeah. 1:22:15.510 --> 1:22:18.349 It resonated with so many people. 1:22:20.610 --> 1:22:23.519 I mean, it's social murder, but it's like normally social 1:22:23.530 --> 1:22:26.800 murder happens at like one more degree of remove than that. 1:22:26.880 --> 1:22:29.400 And this is like, no, actually, yeah, she was just 1:22:29.500 --> 1:22:31.060 murdered by the state and the landlords. 1:22:31.260 --> 1:22:32.660 Exactly. Exactly. 1:22:33.360 --> 1:22:34.800 So directly. And yeah. 1:22:34.900 --> 1:22:36.160 And for everybody to see. 1:22:36.560 --> 1:22:36.940 Yeah. 1:22:37.100 --> 1:22:38.600 And so I guess I guess my question is like, 1:22:39.320 --> 1:22:42.270 how are you and how are also like people in 1:22:42.330 --> 1:22:44.970 the streets kind of like are people looking at this 1:22:45.030 --> 1:22:47.590 in the context of like the other movements that are 1:22:47.610 --> 1:22:49.269 happening at the same time? Or are we kind of 1:22:49.350 --> 1:22:53.110 still in that? what I would call the 2018-2019 mode 1:22:53.130 --> 1:22:55.349 of isolation, where it's hard for people to see themselves 1:22:55.410 --> 1:22:56.809 as part of a broader thing? 1:22:57.150 --> 1:22:59.670 That's a very good question, and I think it's the latter. 1:22:59.689 --> 1:23:05.400 I think that people are so depoliticized that it is 1:23:05.520 --> 1:23:09.960 hard for them to link the most obvious linkable stuff together. 1:23:10.990 --> 1:23:14.549 Yeah, or it's like you and the kids in India. 1:23:14.890 --> 1:23:16.110 Exactly. 1:23:16.130 --> 1:23:17.010 I believe in us. 1:23:17.090 --> 1:23:23.960 That's manufactured. The depoliticization of your population, mine, it's not random. 1:23:24.100 --> 1:23:28.260 To be able to keep us doing the 9 to 1:23:28.260 --> 1:23:33.590 5 and complying and everything, they need a depoliticized population 1:23:34.010 --> 1:23:38.410 to keep on going forward. So I think that social 1:23:38.450 --> 1:23:41.809 media managed to get through Gen Z. So they managed 1:23:41.880 --> 1:23:45.040 to see that what's happening, what has been happening in 1:23:45.080 --> 1:23:48.420 France has also been happening in other countries. And they 1:23:49.220 --> 1:23:51.120 managed to put two and two together. And they managed 1:23:51.140 --> 1:23:54.500 to see that, yeah, the issue is capitalism. The issue 1:23:54.520 --> 1:23:59.750 is white supremacy. The issue is patriarchy and imperialism. But 1:24:01.130 --> 1:24:04.950 when you start looking at millennials, Gen Xers.... 1:24:07.689 --> 1:24:11.189 That's... Which is also like, hey, if you're a millennial, 1:24:11.210 --> 1:24:13.589 we've literally, you've done this twice already. 1:24:13.790 --> 1:24:15.030 I know! 1:24:15.490 --> 1:24:17.290 We did 2011, we did 2020. I believe in us. 1:24:17.570 --> 1:24:19.030 I believe we can figure this out. 1:24:21.050 --> 1:24:22.099 I know we can do this. 1:24:22.380 --> 1:24:24.120 There's a part of me that believes in us, but 1:24:24.160 --> 1:24:26.840 there's also a part of me that knows how effective 1:24:27.560 --> 1:24:34.360 the capitalistic propaganda is. So the moment you start owning stuff... 1:24:34.750 --> 1:24:37.530 like a house, you know, an apartment and stuff like that, 1:24:38.189 --> 1:24:41.309 you start wanting to keep that stuff for yourself. Like, 1:24:41.650 --> 1:24:47.679 you deserve it. Like, suddenly, meritocracy seems real. And that's 1:24:47.720 --> 1:24:48.620 where the danger's at. 1:24:48.640 --> 1:24:48.920 Yeah. 1:24:49.260 --> 1:24:52.300 And that's where the danger's at. So, I mean, I 1:24:52.380 --> 1:24:56.580 see people living their lives and having zero realization. 1:24:56.720 --> 1:24:57.180 Yeah. 1:24:57.320 --> 1:24:59.800 Like, with respect to what's happening in the streets. Like, 1:25:00.380 --> 1:25:03.900 it doesn't hit them at all. Like, they keep on going... 1:25:04.220 --> 1:25:07.840 doing their stuff, and they just don't see how it 1:25:07.860 --> 1:25:11.540 affects them. Or worse than that, they see how it 1:25:11.560 --> 1:25:16.160 affects them, but they seem to have accepted, like. 1:25:16.540 --> 1:25:17.849 Yeah, nothing can be done about it. 1:25:18.560 --> 1:25:22.350 Yeah, it's like, I've suffered, you're going to suffer. 1:25:22.620 --> 1:25:22.900 Yeah. 1:25:23.060 --> 1:25:25.870 That's how shit works. And to me, this is the 1:25:25.910 --> 1:25:28.979 scariest thing. This is the scariest thing. I don't have 1:25:29.020 --> 1:25:32.519 an answer to how I have to deal with that. 1:25:32.780 --> 1:25:35.950 I just know that, again, liberal mindset, and we have 1:25:35.970 --> 1:25:38.790 to get rid of that. I don't think that we're 1:25:38.830 --> 1:25:42.350 going to be able to convince the majority of people 1:25:42.790 --> 1:25:45.710 that what we are doing is the right thing. But 1:25:45.729 --> 1:25:50.099 then again, a hundred years ago, when we were fighting 1:25:50.120 --> 1:25:59.680 against fascism and Nazism, the majority of people So we 1:25:59.729 --> 1:26:00.930 don't need a majority of people. 1:26:01.750 --> 1:26:04.650 Yeah, this is the actual lesson of the storming of 1:26:04.670 --> 1:26:09.430 the Winter Palace. The actual lesson of the October Revolution 1:26:09.610 --> 1:26:12.760 is that You don't need everyone on your side. You 1:26:12.780 --> 1:26:14.240 just need your enemies to stay home. 1:26:14.400 --> 1:26:14.960 Exactly. 1:26:14.979 --> 1:26:17.979 Then you can knock off Kerensky. 1:26:18.000 --> 1:26:21.960 All you need is for them to stay home. Your 1:26:22.040 --> 1:26:24.810 enemies to stay home and enough of your allies to 1:26:24.850 --> 1:26:25.210 come out. 1:26:25.630 --> 1:26:26.450 And you can do this. 1:26:27.050 --> 1:26:30.130 You can see this liberal mindset is so hell-bent on 1:26:30.189 --> 1:26:34.210 trying to convince the majority of people. Like, No, we're 1:26:34.250 --> 1:26:36.310 not going to make it. It's not going to happen. 1:26:36.530 --> 1:26:39.910 This is why the very rich are owning all the media. 1:26:40.430 --> 1:26:40.790 Yeah. 1:26:41.010 --> 1:26:44.559 Because they know. They know what you want to do. 1:26:45.220 --> 1:26:47.420 And they see what you want to do. And they 1:26:47.760 --> 1:26:55.479 have already put their chess pieces in place to disrupt that. 1:26:55.720 --> 1:26:59.510 So you have to do stuff differently. We have to 1:26:59.570 --> 1:27:00.310 organize differently. 1:27:00.330 --> 1:27:00.769 Yeah. 1:27:01.530 --> 1:27:06.340 Speaking of doing something differently, I want to close on... So, okay, 1:27:06.380 --> 1:27:10.240 I think people in France kind of understand logistically what 1:27:10.300 --> 1:27:13.180 it means when you're doing a blockade of a school. 1:27:13.860 --> 1:27:16.480 But for people, for example, in the US, we're like, 1:27:17.140 --> 1:27:21.070 I guess I have seen schools... I have seen colleges blockaded, 1:27:21.689 --> 1:27:24.570 but I've never been involved in a high school blockade. 1:27:24.810 --> 1:27:27.830 What does that actually just look like on a practical level? 1:27:27.950 --> 1:27:28.370 Is it like. 1:27:29.060 --> 1:27:32.340 We're, like, blockading the street leading up to the school? 1:27:32.460 --> 1:27:35.170 Is it like we're barring the entrance? What does that actually, like, 1:27:35.670 --> 1:27:36.870 physically look like? 1:27:37.370 --> 1:27:41.960 Well, basically, physically, you are barring the entrance... Borrowing the 1:27:42.000 --> 1:27:46.300 street is complicated because for a lot of legal reasons 1:27:46.600 --> 1:27:49.639 and logistical reasons, it can be really difficult to block 1:27:50.200 --> 1:27:51.040 a whole street. 1:27:51.320 --> 1:27:51.620 Yeah. 1:27:51.820 --> 1:27:54.080 But yeah, you can block the entry of the school. 1:27:54.860 --> 1:27:58.400 You can put in front of the school whatever you want, 1:27:58.479 --> 1:28:05.660 like trash bins, barriers. Whatever. You can take desks from 1:28:05.700 --> 1:28:11.650 the inside, put them outside, pile them up. Yeah. Like anything. 1:28:12.189 --> 1:28:15.479 Classic French revolutionary tradition. Stack all the desks. 1:28:16.360 --> 1:28:17.800 You know, it surprised me when you asked me that 1:28:17.820 --> 1:28:20.480 because I was like, what? People don't know that? You 1:28:20.500 --> 1:28:23.000 take shit and you put that in front of the 1:28:23.140 --> 1:28:24.950 door and that's it. 1:28:25.479 --> 1:28:28.960 Yeah. We have less of a tradition of that. 1:28:29.720 --> 1:28:34.530 Exactly. Just like burning trash cans and stuff like that. 1:28:35.270 --> 1:28:38.689 It's a tradition. We do that all the time. That's 1:28:38.750 --> 1:28:43.220 protest shit. Like, of course, we're going to burn the trash. 1:28:43.729 --> 1:28:45.460 Like, it's normal. 1:28:45.760 --> 1:28:49.400 It's normal. But yeah, it's really, it's that simple. The 1:28:49.439 --> 1:28:53.780 purpose is to disrupt. So you do everything in your 1:28:53.820 --> 1:28:56.820 power to stop people from getting in the school. 1:28:56.840 --> 1:28:57.240 Yeah. 1:28:57.790 --> 1:28:59.349 Because you don't want them to be able to get 1:28:59.410 --> 1:29:02.170 into school because you want them to ask for the 1:29:02.189 --> 1:29:04.820 same thing as you do so that they can go 1:29:05.420 --> 1:29:06.179 back to school. 1:29:07.200 --> 1:29:07.639 Yeah. 1:29:07.760 --> 1:29:10.800 So yeah, you forbid them from getting into school and 1:29:10.840 --> 1:29:15.400 you push them to support you. That's the whole blockade mindset. 1:29:15.729 --> 1:29:16.229 Makes sense. 1:29:16.550 --> 1:29:18.330 That's how strikes work, basically, also. 1:29:19.090 --> 1:29:19.990 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 1:29:20.030 --> 1:29:23.139 Which I guess is the other angle of like... Something 1:29:23.160 --> 1:29:25.200 I've been thinking about a lot, talking to you, because 1:29:25.240 --> 1:29:26.970 one of the things that struck me about these protests 1:29:26.990 --> 1:29:29.689 is the extent to which when you like read over 1:29:29.729 --> 1:29:32.210 the student grievances, it's like, oh, this is like exactly 1:29:32.229 --> 1:29:34.170 the same grievances you would have for a teacher strike. 1:29:34.590 --> 1:29:34.810 Yeah. 1:29:35.170 --> 1:29:37.880 Like it's the same things. It's like, oh, wow, class 1:29:37.900 --> 1:29:39.520 size too big. Don't have teachers. 1:29:39.979 --> 1:29:41.920 That's very good that you talk about that because our 1:29:41.979 --> 1:29:44.280 teachers are not really supportive. 1:29:43.840 --> 1:29:46.660 Of Yeah, which is like, what is wrong with you? Like, 1:29:47.380 --> 1:29:48.280 you gotta go now. 1:29:48.340 --> 1:29:50.640 Like, if you want your conditions to suck less, you 1:29:50.660 --> 1:29:51.900 need to move right now. 1:29:52.200 --> 1:29:53.729 Like, this is the best you're gonna get. 1:29:54.020 --> 1:29:56.680 Well, in France, like, a few decades ago, teachers used 1:29:56.700 --> 1:30:00.620 to be seen as left-leaning, left-wing. They're no longer left-wing. 1:30:00.740 --> 1:30:04.969 I'm sure they're really, like, right-wingers. Like, they want to 1:30:05.010 --> 1:30:08.970 be paid more, which they deserve to be paid more. Like, really, 1:30:09.070 --> 1:30:10.889 they're not paid enough. 1:30:11.090 --> 1:30:11.350 But. 1:30:12.110 --> 1:30:15.979 they're not asking for it like in a disruptive manner 1:30:16.000 --> 1:30:20.040 and basically they're not getting paid more. Oh, shocking. I know. 1:30:20.060 --> 1:30:24.320 But so yeah, the, the teachers are not really supportive 1:30:24.760 --> 1:30:28.510 of the, their students, which shows you everything you need 1:30:28.530 --> 1:30:31.970 to know about the state of affairs basically. Yeah. 1:30:32.010 --> 1:30:33.450 Which like that has been like one of the things 1:30:33.490 --> 1:30:36.689 that's been heartening in the U S is seeing a 1:30:36.729 --> 1:30:39.700 lot of kind of like, like students coming out to 1:30:39.740 --> 1:30:42.570 support teacher strikes and like, things like that, where, like, 1:30:42.590 --> 1:30:45.469 teachers are sometimes, like, are supporting, like, student walkouts and stuff. 1:30:45.490 --> 1:30:47.030 And that's really sad. 1:30:47.050 --> 1:30:50.939 Because, like, I don't know, like, if you were a teacher, like, 1:30:50.979 --> 1:30:54.080 the thing that you have the responsibility to do is 1:30:54.120 --> 1:30:56.880 to care for your students. And if you're not doing that, then, like, yeah, 1:30:56.920 --> 1:30:58.840 I mean, I guess you are just the kind of, like, 1:30:59.620 --> 1:31:02.060 you're doing education in the Napoleonic sense, if, like, yeah, 1:31:02.100 --> 1:31:04.100 we're cranking you out so you can, like, be cannon 1:31:04.140 --> 1:31:06.750 fodder for, like, the French Imperial Army. 1:31:06.830 --> 1:31:06.990 Like. 1:31:07.310 --> 1:31:09.030 Exactly. No, that's what's happening. 1:31:09.250 --> 1:31:09.390 Like. 1:31:10.410 --> 1:31:17.230 Again, neoliberalism is a deeply individualistic way of life. And 1:31:17.590 --> 1:31:20.390 you can see that in the way teachers are not 1:31:20.430 --> 1:31:25.360 supporting their students who are asking for stuff that teachers 1:31:25.540 --> 1:31:30.270 are also asking for. So logically, you should see teachers 1:31:30.310 --> 1:31:34.800 support students. But when you look at reality, they are not. 1:31:35.200 --> 1:31:38.760 They're not. So, yeah, because they only think about what's 1:31:38.800 --> 1:31:41.700 in it for me. And we've been molded into only 1:31:41.740 --> 1:31:44.809 thinking about what's good for me, what's in it for me. 1:31:45.610 --> 1:31:49.010 And we've stopped thinking us as a society, but just 1:31:49.050 --> 1:31:52.150 as a set of individuals. And that's one of the 1:31:52.170 --> 1:31:54.549 biggest issues we're facing, politically speaking. 1:31:54.750 --> 1:31:58.990 Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Yeah, do you 1:31:59.010 --> 1:32:01.670 have anything else that you want to make sure people 1:32:01.850 --> 1:32:03.330 know before we wrap things up? 1:32:03.990 --> 1:32:06.540 Yeah, I really want to stress the fact that what's 1:32:06.580 --> 1:32:09.820 happening in France and the problem is at its root. 1:32:10.580 --> 1:32:14.280 It's the same problem that is happening in the US. 1:32:14.420 --> 1:32:16.740 It's the same one that is happening in Spain, in 1:32:16.780 --> 1:32:22.229 the UK, in Germany, and basically the whole West and 1:32:22.390 --> 1:32:25.510 even more like in Japan, in South Korea. 1:32:25.530 --> 1:32:25.769 Yeah. 1:32:26.320 --> 1:32:30.160 In India, just like what we're talking about, that is neoliberalism, 1:32:30.229 --> 1:32:34.590 that is capitalism, that is imperialism, that is white supremacy, 1:32:35.010 --> 1:32:38.350 that is patriarchy. And we need to come together. I 1:32:38.470 --> 1:32:42.390 don't think that fighting within our borders is going to 1:32:42.470 --> 1:32:47.050 lead to anything, but we cannot change stuff by just 1:32:47.510 --> 1:32:51.470 fighting for our countries individually. 1:32:51.900 --> 1:32:52.139 Yeah. 1:32:52.260 --> 1:32:55.260 Like we have to fight together because, well, capital doesn't 1:32:55.300 --> 1:33:01.180 know borders. Yeah. We share the same enemy. We share 1:33:01.200 --> 1:33:05.300 the same enemy and we have to coalesce and organize 1:33:06.189 --> 1:33:09.250 worldwide in order to fight back and have a chance 1:33:09.270 --> 1:33:10.370 of fighting back properly. 1:33:10.390 --> 1:33:11.650 Yeah. 1:33:12.400 --> 1:33:16.750 So yeah, organize internationally. Talk to your French folks, to 1:33:16.770 --> 1:33:18.970 your British folks, Spanish. 1:33:18.650 --> 1:33:19.330 Folks, etc. 1:33:19.390 --> 1:33:22.830 And yeah, teach what you know and learn from them. 1:33:22.850 --> 1:33:25.680 And I think that's the only way out of that 1:33:25.760 --> 1:33:26.679 shit hole. 1:33:28.479 --> 1:33:28.880 Hell yeah. 1:33:29.540 --> 1:33:31.900 Faiza, thank you so much. Thank you so much for 1:33:31.939 --> 1:33:33.760 coming on. Where can people find your work? 1:33:34.360 --> 1:33:36.700 Thank you for having me, Mia. People can find me 1:33:36.970 --> 1:33:44.920 on Twitch. at a phaser so f-a-y-z-a underscore underscore and 1:33:45.060 --> 1:33:50.420 also on instagram and blue sky and sometimes on tiktok. 1:33:51.120 --> 1:33:53.220 Cool yeah we will have links to that in the 1:33:53.280 --> 1:33:56.290 show notes yeah thank you so much for coming on 1:33:56.550 --> 1:33:59.790 and i don't know i hope i hope y'all fucking win. 1:33:59.610 --> 1:34:04.730 Thank you i also hope that much thank you thank 1:34:04.750 --> 1:34:07.740 you thank you and thank you again for having me Yeah, 1:34:07.939 --> 1:34:09.160 it's been great. 1:34:21.720 --> 1:34:22.380 Hi, everyone. 1:34:22.620 --> 1:34:25.260 You're listening to It Could Happen Here. My name is 1:34:25.340 --> 1:34:29.189 Carlos Berrios Polanco. And today I'm going to be talking 1:34:29.310 --> 1:34:33.769 about breadfruit, the climate change resistant crop that also works 1:34:33.890 --> 1:34:37.480 as a tool for emergency preparedness. But before I get 1:34:37.500 --> 1:34:40.559 into that, let me tell you why I started thinking 1:34:40.600 --> 1:34:44.380 about breadfruit in the first place. If you're anything like me, 1:34:44.939 --> 1:34:48.200 the effects of human-caused climate change on the food that 1:34:48.220 --> 1:34:50.640 we eat and grow have been on your mind lately. 1:34:51.720 --> 1:34:53.960 Maybe you've been thinking about it because you saw a 1:34:54.140 --> 1:34:58.240 scary-looking graph that shows the global temperature shooting up over 1:34:58.260 --> 1:35:01.559 the last few years and only increasing over the next 1:35:01.620 --> 1:35:04.930 couple of decades. When this type of graph comes up 1:35:04.970 --> 1:35:08.320 in an article about food, It's usually accompanied by a 1:35:08.400 --> 1:35:12.710 rice or cornfield so dry that the ground is cracked 1:35:13.010 --> 1:35:15.290 to show how bad it's gotten and how much worse 1:35:15.430 --> 1:35:19.090 it can get. Or maybe you're thinking about it because 1:35:19.130 --> 1:35:22.000 the price of foods that have become staples in your diet, 1:35:22.400 --> 1:35:26.720 like rice, chicken, and coffee, have gone up significantly year 1:35:26.800 --> 1:35:30.700 over year because of a mixture of different climate-related causes 1:35:31.160 --> 1:35:34.300 has caused crop losses all over the world, and for 1:35:34.320 --> 1:35:37.880 the very process of planting and harvesting to become more expensive, 1:35:38.560 --> 1:35:42.599 a process known as quote-unquote climateflation. And in the case 1:35:42.660 --> 1:35:46.650 of more specialty foods, like Florida oranges, for example, maybe 1:35:46.670 --> 1:35:49.610 they're not even available at the grocery store anymore because 1:35:49.650 --> 1:35:52.050 of how hard crops have been hit by extreme weather 1:35:52.070 --> 1:35:56.530 events and illness. To be clear, climate change isn't the 1:35:56.650 --> 1:35:59.550 only reason that food prices have gone up lately. The 1:35:59.610 --> 1:36:01.889 closure of the Strait of Hormuz because of the U.S. 1:36:01.890 --> 1:36:05.009 's war on Iran has also certainly led to prices 1:36:05.070 --> 1:36:08.389 going up for everything across the board. But climate change 1:36:08.550 --> 1:36:12.200 is the main thing that has been and will continue 1:36:12.240 --> 1:36:14.759 to affect the way that we consume food into the future, 1:36:15.300 --> 1:36:19.560 especially as resources become scarcer and we as a planet 1:36:19.580 --> 1:36:22.650 start realizing that what once worked to feed us isn't 1:36:22.710 --> 1:36:26.290 going to be viable forever. A study by the Climate 1:36:26.390 --> 1:36:30.630 Impact Lab found that every additional degree Celsius of global 1:36:30.670 --> 1:36:37.770 warming will lead to global production of six stable crops, corn, soybean, rice, wheat, cassava, 1:36:37.850 --> 1:36:43.520 and sorghum, to decrease by 4.4%, which is roughly equivalent 1:36:43.560 --> 1:36:44.910 to a loss of 120 calories per person per day. 1:36:47.920 --> 1:36:51.460 As Solomon Sheehan, one of the senior authors of this 1:36:51.500 --> 1:36:55.299 study and a professor of environmental sciences at Stanford Doerr 1:36:55.360 --> 1:37:00.590 School of Sustainability, told the UK Telegraph, quote, if climate 1:37:00.689 --> 1:37:04.310 warms by three degrees, that's basically like everyone on the 1:37:04.350 --> 1:37:09.640 planet giving up breakfast, end quote. This is pretty bad already, 1:37:09.950 --> 1:37:13.080 but it's going to affect the people already suffering from 1:37:13.160 --> 1:37:16.890 food insecurity the worst. And that's not to say that 1:37:16.930 --> 1:37:19.870 we're not growing enough food, just that it's not being 1:37:19.930 --> 1:37:23.820 distributed to the people who need it most. Three degrees 1:37:23.880 --> 1:37:28.139 of warming would also cause cataclysmic ecological effects for millions 1:37:28.180 --> 1:37:31.220 of people around the world, to include cities submerged by 1:37:31.280 --> 1:37:35.960 rising sea levels, months-long deadly heat waves, and turn people 1:37:36.040 --> 1:37:40.250 into refugees by the millions. The regions most affected by 1:37:40.310 --> 1:37:43.809 climate change right now, like Africa, Southern Asia, and the 1:37:43.850 --> 1:37:48.050 Caribbean are would be the most affected by this. So 1:37:48.110 --> 1:37:50.890 I've really been thinking a lot about that lately, and 1:37:50.950 --> 1:37:53.269 I did what I always do whenever I start to 1:37:53.310 --> 1:37:56.370 think about collapse and cataclysm like that. I look for 1:37:56.390 --> 1:37:58.550 the ways that people around me are trying to deal 1:37:58.570 --> 1:38:01.730 with the effects of climate change in the best way 1:38:01.770 --> 1:38:02.480 that they can. 1:38:03.180 --> 1:38:03.700 That's why. 1:38:04.550 --> 1:38:07.299 On a recent Friday morning, I found myself about an 1:38:07.400 --> 1:38:10.260 hour away from my hometown of Caguas in a tiny 1:38:10.320 --> 1:38:13.880 little neighborhood called Mariana that's nestled into the mountains of 1:38:13.920 --> 1:38:18.600 the municipal borderline between Yabucoa and Umacao. As I made 1:38:18.660 --> 1:38:21.100 my way through the labyrinth-like roads up to the mountain 1:38:21.150 --> 1:38:23.830 that definitely were not made to fit two cars side 1:38:23.870 --> 1:38:26.670 by side, I knew that I was getting close because 1:38:26.710 --> 1:38:31.060 I started seeing nearly 100-foot-tall breadfruit trees reach towards the heavens. 1:38:31.950 --> 1:38:34.179 I was there in late September right at the tail 1:38:34.260 --> 1:38:37.960 end of the breadfruit's harvest season. So the bright yellow-green 1:38:38.020 --> 1:38:40.979 football-sized fruits weren't as plentiful as they would be if 1:38:41.040 --> 1:38:43.639 I had come earlier in the month. If you've never 1:38:43.680 --> 1:38:46.559 seen a breadfruit or never tasted one, you should probably 1:38:46.660 --> 1:38:48.139 fix that as soon as you can. 1:38:48.439 --> 1:38:49.100 It's delicious. 1:38:49.900 --> 1:38:52.780 Breadfruit trees can grow up to 100 feet tall and 1:38:52.820 --> 1:38:56.240 are covered in large green leaves. The fruit itself can 1:38:56.280 --> 1:38:59.509 grow to be almost 15 pounds, but usually tops out 1:38:59.660 --> 1:39:03.059 at about 6 to 10 pounds. Per the Breadfruit Institute 1:39:03.090 --> 1:39:06.349 in Hawaii, it's an energy-rich food and a good source 1:39:06.410 --> 1:39:10.350 of complex carbs, fiber, and minerals like potassium and calcium 1:39:10.430 --> 1:39:11.650 as well as vitamin. 1:39:11.290 --> 1:39:12.090 B and others. 1:39:12.830 --> 1:39:15.930 Although some varieties grow with seeds, in my experience, the 1:39:15.970 --> 1:39:20.010 majority don't. Therefore, about 90% of the time, you're more 1:39:20.050 --> 1:39:23.730 likely to see breadfruit propagated through root cuttings or tissue 1:39:23.770 --> 1:39:28.290 cultures or something like that, rather than from seed. Breadfruit 1:39:28.350 --> 1:39:32.290 trees grow extremely quickly, like up to four feet per year, 1:39:32.590 --> 1:39:35.689 and will begin producing fruit in about three years. And 1:39:35.729 --> 1:39:40.040 it produces a lot of fruit, like between 100 or 1:39:40.040 --> 1:39:43.380 200 individual fruits per tree, although some trees could blow 1:39:43.460 --> 1:39:47.510 past that. Harvest season depends on where these trees are grown, 1:39:48.010 --> 1:39:51.930 but it's generally late summer to fall, usually. The tree 1:39:51.990 --> 1:39:55.550 itself doesn't need too much care or perfect growing conditions. 1:39:55.990 --> 1:39:58.700 Far from it, actually. As long as you can provide 1:39:58.720 --> 1:40:01.660 it with medium amounts of water and deep, fertile, and 1:40:01.700 --> 1:40:05.439 well-draining soils, it'll grow for you. And even then, some 1:40:05.460 --> 1:40:09.300 varieties grow in atolls that are shallow and sandy, according 1:40:09.320 --> 1:40:12.870 to the Breadfruit Institute. And it'll also grow on hillsides. 1:40:13.500 --> 1:40:17.850 That's why it's often touted as a quote-unquote climate-resilient tree, 1:40:18.020 --> 1:40:21.490 because it'll grow in a bunch of different conditions. It's 1:40:21.910 --> 1:40:25.310 really the goat of trees. As to what the fruit 1:40:25.350 --> 1:40:28.270 tastes like, well, it's in the name. When cooked, it 1:40:28.310 --> 1:40:30.870 tastes like bread, although I've read some people can describe 1:40:30.930 --> 1:40:33.060 it as kind of like a starchy and nutty potato. 1:40:33.840 --> 1:40:36.200 It can be used in a million different recipes and 1:40:36.320 --> 1:40:41.400 used in all states of ripeness, from completely raw to overripe. Personally, 1:40:41.600 --> 1:40:44.080 my favorite way to eat it is cooked into tostones, 1:40:44.220 --> 1:40:47.090 which are these kind of twice-fried flattened fritters that are 1:40:47.160 --> 1:40:50.150 usually made from plantain, but I prefer when they're made 1:40:50.189 --> 1:40:53.710 out of breadfruit. I've been to Mariana before, about three 1:40:53.750 --> 1:40:56.350 years ago, to work on a story about how communities 1:40:56.470 --> 1:41:00.070 affected by the destruction caused by Hurricane Maria in 2017 1:41:00.070 --> 1:41:03.950 and Hurricane Fiona in 2022 were designing their just recovery 1:41:04.030 --> 1:41:08.260 through bottom-up methods, like a community aqueduct to help ail 1:41:08.300 --> 1:41:11.600 the neighborhood's decades-long water issues, as well as a community 1:41:11.660 --> 1:41:14.380 census to know who is the most vulnerable in case 1:41:14.420 --> 1:41:17.840 of an emergency and make sure they got help first. 1:41:18.760 --> 1:41:20.960 And in a sense, I was back there to cover 1:41:21.060 --> 1:41:24.200 essentially the same thing, except that this time it was 1:41:24.320 --> 1:41:27.689 community preparedness through a breadfruit farm that they've planted at 1:41:28.310 --> 1:41:31.250 La Loma de la Niña Mariana, a kind of community 1:41:31.310 --> 1:41:36.189 park slash rec space. It's a really serene space. especially 1:41:36.280 --> 1:41:39.450 when it's empty. It's surrounded by breadfruit and other trees, 1:41:39.510 --> 1:41:42.090 so there's a lot of green, and the breeze is 1:41:42.110 --> 1:41:45.670 a welcoming reprieve from the near triple-digit temperatures we've been 1:41:45.710 --> 1:41:48.970 having lately. Mariana is the neighborhood that grows the most 1:41:49.050 --> 1:41:53.430 breadfruit in Humacao, Rosalina Abreu tells me. She's a community 1:41:53.470 --> 1:41:57.570 leader who's part of the neighborhood's non-profit organization, Arecma, which 1:41:57.630 --> 1:42:01.470 is in charge of community participation and development. As a 1:42:01.510 --> 1:42:04.650 quick note, I interviewed Rosalina in our native Spanish, but 1:42:04.729 --> 1:42:07.650 Mia from the Cool Zone team was gracious enough to 1:42:07.870 --> 1:42:11.330 read a translation of that interview here and in following sections. 1:42:14.850 --> 1:42:18.380 It's a tree with a strong root. It's resistant to 1:42:18.439 --> 1:42:22.760 hurricanes and any environmental changes. And a mature tree can 1:42:22.800 --> 1:42:24.939 yield a harvest of between 100 and 300 to 400 breadfruits. 1:42:25.020 --> 1:42:25.620 Therefore.... 1:42:29.060 --> 1:42:31.240 The harvest is fruitful and abundant. 1:42:33.200 --> 1:42:36.660 Breadfruit has a long history here. Rosalina tells me that 1:42:36.700 --> 1:42:39.390 her family has always had a breadfruit tree or a 1:42:39.439 --> 1:42:43.849 couple growing near them going back generations because of how 1:42:43.890 --> 1:42:46.660 much food it produces and because when you preserve it, 1:42:46.970 --> 1:42:51.030 it can last months with proper refrigeration. In Puerto Rico, 1:42:51.430 --> 1:42:54.800 it was originally used as sustenance for pigs and other livestock, 1:42:54.979 --> 1:42:58.140 but little by little, people started paying attention to how 1:42:58.220 --> 1:43:01.740 good the fruit was, how many nutrients it provided, and 1:43:01.800 --> 1:43:05.520 people started using it for everything. Mariana has been hosting 1:43:05.650 --> 1:43:08.570 a breadfruit festival between the end of August and the 1:43:08.610 --> 1:43:12.930 start of September amid the peak breadfruit harvest for 38 years. 1:43:13.689 --> 1:43:17.090 The community has also created a breadfruit recipe book that 1:43:17.130 --> 1:43:19.990 I'm flipping through as I read this script, and it 1:43:20.010 --> 1:43:23.070 has dozens and dozens of different things you make with 1:43:23.110 --> 1:43:27.849 it from fritters to flan and even juice. When Hurricane Maria, 1:43:28.010 --> 1:43:32.769 a Category 4 hurricane, tore through Puerto Rico in 2017, 1:43:32.770 --> 1:43:37.070 leaving thousands of people dead and causing more than $ 91 1:43:36.350 --> 1:43:41.229 billion in damages, Mariana was left more or less incommunicated 1:43:41.290 --> 1:43:44.689 from the rest of the world. Rosalina told me years 1:43:44.760 --> 1:43:46.719 ago that it was like a bomb had been dropped 1:43:47.140 --> 1:43:50.679 in their neighborhood. But knowing that the government wasn't coming 1:43:50.720 --> 1:43:53.760 to help their small rural community, they knew that the 1:43:53.880 --> 1:43:57.610 only people they could count on or themselves. So they 1:43:57.630 --> 1:44:00.570 got to work and opened a food distribution center at 1:44:00.610 --> 1:44:04.150 La Loma where they were feeding members of the community 1:44:04.189 --> 1:44:06.890 with whatever food they had on hand and whatever food 1:44:06.910 --> 1:44:09.610 they could gather from the hundreds of breadfruit trees and 1:44:09.689 --> 1:44:10.710 others in the neighborhood. 1:44:16.210 --> 1:44:19.910 We've seen that when the need arises, people come here 1:44:19.970 --> 1:44:23.440 to look for breadfruit. And not only that, But the 1:44:23.490 --> 1:44:26.180 environment is full of trees that keep us cool, that 1:44:26.200 --> 1:44:30.360 provide a natural space for growth. And eventually we know 1:44:30.700 --> 1:44:32.500 that we are going to be one of the neighborhoods 1:44:32.580 --> 1:44:35.620 best prepared for any situation that involves a food shortage. 1:44:36.100 --> 1:44:38.320 We're going to have breadfruit to share and to use. 1:44:39.740 --> 1:44:42.690 In fact, we have a kitchen here, a semi-industrial kitchen 1:44:42.710 --> 1:44:46.110 that opens to feed the neighborhood. During the time of Maria, 1:44:46.170 --> 1:44:49.710 we served 400 people daily that came looking for food here. 1:44:50.790 --> 1:44:53.430 We already have the kitchen, we have the trees planted. 1:44:53.450 --> 1:44:57.760 So we're already a step ahead for the survival of 1:44:57.800 --> 1:45:02.940 our people if an event occurs. 1:45:03.860 --> 1:45:07.600 Neighbors in Mariana have planted about 80 breadfruit trees throughout 1:45:07.620 --> 1:45:11.590 La Loma as a kind of disaster insurance policy. There 1:45:11.630 --> 1:45:14.670 is probably not a fruit tree that can really withstand 1:45:14.750 --> 1:45:17.890 a hurricane or severe flooding or something like that. But 1:45:17.930 --> 1:45:20.590 if a breadfruit tree goes down, it'll likely start to 1:45:20.630 --> 1:45:23.689 spring back up from the roots. Of the four people 1:45:23.729 --> 1:45:26.110 that I interviewed for this episode, all of them told 1:45:26.170 --> 1:45:30.110 me something similar. And if a breadfruit tree gets stripped 1:45:30.189 --> 1:45:32.680 of its leaves and its fruits by a storm, it'll 1:45:32.720 --> 1:45:36.820 probably start sprouting leaves a few weeks after and will 1:45:36.860 --> 1:45:41.180 probably produce breadfruit next harvest season. Something similar, although to 1:45:41.220 --> 1:45:45.990 a lower degree, happened when Hurricane Fiona hit in 2022. 1:45:45.990 --> 1:45:49.730 Rosalina explained to me that in the 1920s and. 1:45:49.689 --> 1:45:50.430 1930s, the U.S. 1:45:50.470 --> 1:45:53.590 Government tried to take down breadfruit trees to grow potatoes, 1:45:54.330 --> 1:45:56.250 but they didn't take away the roots, so it just 1:45:56.290 --> 1:45:59.410 sprang back up again. She also says that Puerto Rico's 1:45:59.450 --> 1:46:03.099 farmers took the tree up into the mountains. It usually 1:46:03.140 --> 1:46:05.700 grows closer to the beach and other places where it 1:46:05.740 --> 1:46:07.099 has thrived ever since. 1:46:11.460 --> 1:46:13.850 It looks like a Christmas tree with its bulbs because 1:46:13.979 --> 1:46:17.250 each branch has two or three bread fruits. And when 1:46:17.270 --> 1:46:19.740 they're ripe, when it's harvest time, you look at it, 1:46:19.890 --> 1:46:26.510 and it's really miraculous. Plus, it provides food, provides shade, 1:46:26.710 --> 1:46:29.230 it's resistant to the soil, meaning you can plant it 1:46:29.310 --> 1:46:32.930 in areas prone to landslides, and it will preserve the 1:46:32.970 --> 1:46:39.120 terrain so there's no collapses or landslides. So, for many. 1:46:38.979 --> 1:46:45.230 Reasons, it's a tree we could consider miraculous. 1:46:46.729 --> 1:46:49.230 Breadfruit is one of the first crops to grow back 1:46:49.330 --> 1:46:52.590 in Puerto Rico after an extreme weather event. It also 1:46:52.630 --> 1:46:55.930 grows pretty much everywhere throughout the archipelago. And this is 1:46:56.010 --> 1:46:58.790 super important because Puerto Rico is one of the countries 1:46:59.050 --> 1:47:02.850 most affected by climate change, ranking sixth on German Watch's 1:47:02.950 --> 1:47:06.520 Climate Risk Index. which looks at how countries are affected 1:47:06.610 --> 1:47:09.110 by extreme weather events and how they cause loss of 1:47:09.170 --> 1:47:12.670 life and how it impacts their GDP. Puerto Rico has 1:47:12.729 --> 1:47:16.550 experienced several disasters caused by extreme weather over the years, 1:47:16.790 --> 1:47:19.770 the biggest of which were Hurricanes Irma and Maria and Fiona. 1:47:20.380 --> 1:47:24.700 Maria caused a loss of around 80% of the archipelago's crops, 1:47:24.880 --> 1:47:28.880 or about $ 800 million worth of food, according to the 1:47:28.900 --> 1:47:33.730 New York Times. Meanwhile, Fiona caused about $ 159 million in 1:47:33.770 --> 1:47:36.630 losses for the agricultural industry per the AP. 1:47:37.310 --> 1:47:42.880 Breadfruit has proven to be drought resistant. It's wind resistant. 1:47:42.979 --> 1:47:46.900 After Hurricane Maria, we were eating breadfruit first than we 1:47:46.920 --> 1:47:51.630 were eating local bananas and local plantains. Because they were 1:47:51.710 --> 1:47:54.450 highly affected by the winds, but they would come back. 1:47:55.070 --> 1:47:59.760 So it's very interesting how... Even if the fruits are smaller, 1:47:59.900 --> 1:48:02.730 it will bear fruit, especially in a drought season. 1:48:03.360 --> 1:48:07.970 That's Marisol Villalobos, a co-founder of Amazar, a company that 1:48:07.990 --> 1:48:11.230 sells breadfruit flour that's shelf-stable and can last years with 1:48:11.270 --> 1:48:15.330 no problems. Their farm's in Hayuya, and in 2017, her 1:48:15.350 --> 1:48:18.570 and her husband, who's also a co-founder, had planted about 1:48:18.790 --> 1:48:21.469 two acres of their farm worldwide. breadfruit, but the saplings 1:48:21.510 --> 1:48:25.340 were little tiny sticks when Maria hid, and only one survived. 1:48:25.770 --> 1:48:30.720 Marisol now calls it the quote-unquote matriarch tree. Nearly 10 1:48:30.720 --> 1:48:34.479 years after that, their farm now has 500 breadfruit trees 1:48:34.520 --> 1:48:37.560 that are producing hundreds and hundreds of pounds of breadfruit 1:48:37.620 --> 1:48:40.530 that they turn into flour every year. They're one of 1:48:40.570 --> 1:48:42.990 the first farms in Puerto Rico to grow breadfruit and 1:48:43.050 --> 1:48:46.269 cocoa at the same time. The breadfruit trees provide the 1:48:46.330 --> 1:48:50.450 necessary shade for cocoa to grow. They've also planted several 1:48:50.520 --> 1:48:53.640 other native trees throughout their farms. If you wanted to 1:48:53.680 --> 1:48:57.600 produce breadfruit at an industrial scale, this probably isn't the 1:48:57.640 --> 1:49:01.720 best way to go. Most industrial agriculture has one singular 1:49:01.800 --> 1:49:06.070 crop planted over large swaths of land to maximize production, 1:49:06.210 --> 1:49:11.840 ease of gathering, and resources. This is called monoculture. However, 1:49:11.860 --> 1:49:15.780 there's serious downsides to it, like needing to pump tons 1:49:15.850 --> 1:49:18.810 of fertilizer and compost into the soil to keep it 1:49:18.970 --> 1:49:22.190 growing the same thing over and over again, as well 1:49:22.229 --> 1:49:25.030 as increasing the risk that a pest or illness will 1:49:25.110 --> 1:49:28.929 wreak havoc throughout the crop. The way Marisol grows breadfruit 1:49:29.229 --> 1:49:32.870 isn't ideal if they wanted to maximize production, but Marisol 1:49:33.170 --> 1:49:36.550 isn't really bothered by it. Instead, she thinks it's better 1:49:36.810 --> 1:49:39.610 that way because of its positive effects on the soil 1:49:39.720 --> 1:49:40.439 and on the plants. 1:49:41.060 --> 1:49:44.519 Some people say, no, it might not be the best synergy. 1:49:45.060 --> 1:49:47.880 I see it in a way, you know, I'm enriching 1:49:48.020 --> 1:49:52.220 my model of agroforestry. And what we produce is what 1:49:52.240 --> 1:49:56.160 we produce. But if I have a more secure crop 1:49:56.240 --> 1:50:01.420 in terms of resilience and protection from sicknesses, illnesses in place, 1:50:01.760 --> 1:50:02.800 I'm very happy with that. 1:50:03.500 --> 1:50:07.700 Puerto Rico grows very little of its own food, about 10-15% 1:50:08.240 --> 1:50:11.760 depending on the source that you look at. While breadfruit 1:50:11.780 --> 1:50:15.360 has been part of Puerto Ricans' diets for centuries, production 1:50:15.400 --> 1:50:17.820 of it has been going down over the last few 1:50:17.900 --> 1:50:21.460 years as Puerto Rico becomes even more reliant on imports. 1:50:22.340 --> 1:50:26.820 Per data from the Archipelago's Department of Agriculture, production of 1:50:26.900 --> 1:50:31.190 breadfruit has gone down from 1991 to 2019, the last 1:50:31.229 --> 1:50:34.550 year for which public data is available, by about 771,000 pounds. 1:50:34.610 --> 1:50:36.650 Only about 650,000 pounds of breadfruit were produced in Puerto 1:50:36.720 --> 1:50:38.840 Rico in 2019, according to the data. Meanwhile, imports have 1:50:38.880 --> 1:50:40.320 risen rapidly from 2015 to 2019, reaching about 830,000 pounds 1:50:40.380 --> 1:50:43.299 of breadfruit imported in 2019. So people are still eating breadfruit. 1:50:43.320 --> 1:50:45.680 They're eating more of it, but we just can't grow 1:50:45.820 --> 1:50:46.519 it fast enough. 1:51:03.310 --> 1:51:06.800 So we definitely have a great opportunity in Puerto Rico 1:51:06.860 --> 1:51:10.719 to increase local production and local consumption with a crop 1:51:10.740 --> 1:51:16.260 like breadfruit and especially incorporating other crops with it. Beans, vegetables, 1:51:16.520 --> 1:51:18.189 a lot of farinacios, taro. 1:51:18.210 --> 1:51:19.470 Plantains, all that. Yeah. 1:51:19.970 --> 1:51:24.110 And even animals, you know, nice farms that have both things, 1:51:24.370 --> 1:51:28.610 silver pasture with trees and with the animals. And then 1:51:28.640 --> 1:51:30.519 we have a little bit more protein there too. 1:51:30.580 --> 1:51:30.820 So yeah. 1:51:31.270 --> 1:51:33.270 When we get back from the ad break, we're going 1:51:33.290 --> 1:51:36.350 to be talking about the history of breadfruit's voyage from 1:51:36.370 --> 1:51:39.110 the Pacific to the Caribbean and the rest of the 1:51:39.150 --> 1:51:42.710 world and how breadfruit is being distributed to help combat 1:51:42.810 --> 1:51:57.150 hunger crises everywhere. And we're back. You're listening to It 1:51:57.170 --> 1:52:00.030 Could Happen Here. I'm Carlos, your host for today's episode. 1:52:01.100 --> 1:52:04.220 And while breadfruit has become a staple in the Caribbean 1:52:04.280 --> 1:52:06.680 because of how easily it grows and its ability to 1:52:06.700 --> 1:52:11.380 be turned into a gazillion different things, it's not native here. Instead, 1:52:11.400 --> 1:52:15.440 it's originally from the western Pacific, specifically from New Guinea 1:52:15.580 --> 1:52:19.160 and the Indo-Malay region. Thousands of years ago, it was 1:52:19.200 --> 1:52:22.800 spread by the indigenous Polynesians who were the literal first 1:52:22.880 --> 1:52:26.410 people to travel across the region. They would travel on 1:52:26.470 --> 1:52:29.410 double-hulled canoes that are nothing like what we know of 1:52:29.570 --> 1:52:32.570 as canoes today. Instead, each hull could reach up to 1:52:32.570 --> 1:52:35.120 100 feet in length, they had a sail, and they 1:52:35.140 --> 1:52:37.760 could fit entire families as well as the food and 1:52:37.840 --> 1:52:41.100 resources they needed to settle on the islands they were 1:52:41.140 --> 1:52:44.420 traveling to. And one of the things they carried were 1:52:44.500 --> 1:52:47.820 breadfruit saplings because of how much fruit it would produce 1:52:48.000 --> 1:52:48.720 when planted. 1:52:49.340 --> 1:52:51.560 In the case of breadfruit, it was usually the little 1:52:51.600 --> 1:52:53.700 saplings that shoot up from the roots. They would cut 1:52:53.740 --> 1:52:56.180 them and pack them in a ball of earth and 1:52:56.240 --> 1:52:59.350 leaves and keep them moist so that they could plant 1:52:59.390 --> 1:53:01.730 them on the new island and have the same familiar 1:53:01.790 --> 1:53:04.530 foods that they were used to wherever they were coming from. 1:53:05.210 --> 1:53:09.590 That's Russell Fielding, an associate professor at Coastal Carolina University 1:53:09.710 --> 1:53:14.210 in South Carolina who researches geography and environmental justice and 1:53:14.370 --> 1:53:17.390 who wrote the book Red Fruit, Free Global Journeys of 1:53:17.430 --> 1:53:21.040 a Bountiful Tree. He explained, that one of the Pacific 1:53:21.080 --> 1:53:24.220 people's earliest uses for breadfruit was roasting it in an 1:53:24.300 --> 1:53:26.720 earth oven, which is when you create a pit, put 1:53:26.760 --> 1:53:30.009 burning coals in there, then the fruit, then more coals 1:53:30.090 --> 1:53:32.190 on top, and then you cover it all with stones 1:53:32.320 --> 1:53:35.310 and soil. This type of cooking is common to a 1:53:35.350 --> 1:53:38.750 bunch of indigenous cultures across the world, and it produces 1:53:38.970 --> 1:53:42.970 delicious food. Another way that the people of the Pacific 1:53:43.229 --> 1:53:46.070 used breadfruit that Russell's never seen outside of the region 1:53:46.229 --> 1:53:49.650 is putting it into a dark pit, making sure there's 1:53:49.729 --> 1:53:53.330 no airflow, and then letting it ferment. This turns it 1:53:53.410 --> 1:53:55.809 into a sort of paste that can be stored for 1:53:55.850 --> 1:53:59.179 a long time. It tastes kind of tart, almost like citrus, 1:53:59.270 --> 1:54:02.760 Russell told me. Its name depends on which Pacific island 1:54:02.780 --> 1:54:05.839 you're on, but the people of the Marquesas call it ma. 1:54:06.500 --> 1:54:10.300 And so this fermented breadfruit was used as kind of 1:54:10.320 --> 1:54:14.320 an insurance against times of scarcity, where, you know, if 1:54:14.340 --> 1:54:16.840 you get a big crop of breadfruit, like you said, 1:54:17.520 --> 1:54:20.360 A single tree in a single season produces lots of fruit. 1:54:20.900 --> 1:54:22.559 So if it's more than you need for the time being, 1:54:22.620 --> 1:54:24.840 you can ferment some of it to store it away 1:54:24.900 --> 1:54:27.580 for later. And then maybe there's a drought or a 1:54:27.640 --> 1:54:30.240 famine at some point and you have to dip into 1:54:30.280 --> 1:54:30.919 your reserves. 1:54:31.780 --> 1:54:34.740 This shows that the history of breadfruit as an emergency 1:54:34.800 --> 1:54:40.200 preparedness tool goes back millennia. People and the breadfruit they 1:54:40.240 --> 1:54:44.760 carried continued spreading across the Pacific. When the Europeans colonized 1:54:44.780 --> 1:54:47.820 the region, they essentially forced the people to switch from 1:54:47.880 --> 1:54:52.980 breadfruit to imports from the globalized market. Crops like coffee, pineapples, 1:54:53.160 --> 1:54:57.240 and sugar overtook the breadfruit groves in taro patches, while 1:54:57.310 --> 1:55:00.530 rice became a staple of the Pacific diet, according to 1:55:00.570 --> 1:55:05.170 Russell's book. It's a story anyone familiar with colonization or 1:55:05.210 --> 1:55:08.290 who's been a victim of it knows all too well. However, 1:55:08.950 --> 1:55:12.170 breadfruit has seen a resurgence in recent times. In Hawaii, 1:55:12.830 --> 1:55:16.290 According to an article in Civil Beat, breadfruit production is booming, 1:55:16.750 --> 1:55:20.030 but similar to Puerto Rico, farmers can't keep up with demand. 1:55:20.930 --> 1:55:23.820 We'll get back to the modern-day breadfruit situation in a second. 1:55:24.160 --> 1:55:27.020 But before that, let's talk about how breadfruit made its 1:55:27.100 --> 1:55:29.640 way all the way from the Pacific to the Caribbean. 1:55:30.220 --> 1:55:33.060 It wasn't until the very end of the 18th century 1:55:33.620 --> 1:55:37.340 that breadfruit made its jump to the Caribbean. And this 1:55:37.380 --> 1:55:42.690 was intentional. This was directed by the European colonialists. It 1:55:42.710 --> 1:55:45.770 was the British that eventually succeeded first, but they weren't 1:55:45.810 --> 1:55:48.650 the only ones trying. The French had also made efforts 1:55:48.720 --> 1:55:52.620 to bring breadfruit to the Caribbean. And there's some hypothesis 1:55:52.640 --> 1:55:56.160 that the Spanish were also moving breadfruit around the same time. 1:55:56.200 --> 1:55:57.720 But the British did it first. 1:55:58.360 --> 1:56:01.140 You might have heard this story before. The story of 1:56:01.180 --> 1:56:04.400 the mutiny on the bounty. Every time I mentioned to 1:56:04.980 --> 1:56:08.000 someone that I was working on this breadfruit project, They 1:56:08.040 --> 1:56:12.050 would mention the original 1945 movie, The Muni on the Bounty, 1:56:12.150 --> 1:56:16.090 or the 1962 remake with Marlon Brando to me. And 1:56:16.130 --> 1:56:18.890 I would be like, yeah, for sure. But let me 1:56:18.930 --> 1:56:21.570 be honest with you, dear listener. I did not know 1:56:21.610 --> 1:56:24.050 that these movies existed up until a couple of weeks 1:56:24.130 --> 1:56:25.570 before recording this episode. 1:56:25.590 --> 1:56:28.170 And to be honest, they're pretty good. 1:56:28.170 --> 1:56:33.990 3.5 stars on Letterboxd. Anyway, as European colonization wrecked terror 1:56:34.090 --> 1:56:37.230 and death throughout the Caribbean... The British came up with 1:56:37.290 --> 1:56:41.170 a plan to transport breadfruit from their Pacific colonies to 1:56:41.210 --> 1:56:43.790 their Caribbean colonies, all of which had more or less 1:56:43.830 --> 1:56:47.480 the same climate, to feed the enslaved people that they 1:56:47.490 --> 1:56:52.180 had kidnapped from Africa and forced to work on sugar plantations. So, 1:56:52.820 --> 1:56:56.720 the British assigned William Bly to the HMS Bounty, and 1:56:56.740 --> 1:57:00.540 they traveled to Tahiti to load upon breadfruit. Bly, as 1:57:00.620 --> 1:57:04.420 authoritarians commonly do, was quick to anger and routinely verbally 1:57:04.460 --> 1:57:08.580 berated and physically assaulted his crew, who eventually mutinied and 1:57:08.640 --> 1:57:13.380 sent Bly in his loyalist packing. However, Bly eventually made 1:57:13.420 --> 1:57:15.800 his way back to England, where he would once again 1:57:15.940 --> 1:57:18.780 make his way back to Tahiti and eventually reach his 1:57:18.840 --> 1:57:22.920 original goal of bringing breadfruit to the Caribbean. He first 1:57:22.980 --> 1:57:25.800 stopped in St. Vincent in 1793, then Jamaica shortly after. 1:57:28.630 --> 1:57:31.470 Then breadfruit was all over the Caribbean in a few 1:57:31.530 --> 1:57:34.350 short years, even reaching the state of Florida a few 1:57:34.390 --> 1:57:37.990 decades later, where it's still really the only place in 1:57:38.010 --> 1:57:40.990 the continental U.S. where it can grow outside without too 1:57:41.010 --> 1:57:44.790 much trouble. Although it really only mostly grows in the 1:57:44.890 --> 1:57:47.810 Keys and the warmest parts of South Florida because it's 1:57:48.020 --> 1:57:50.640 super susceptible to a cold snap. 1:57:51.800 --> 1:57:55.620 It was specifically intended to feed people that were enslaved 1:57:56.240 --> 1:58:01.420 on sugar plantations and or otherwise impoverished. I know that 1:58:01.460 --> 1:58:03.940 not every island was practicing slavery at the time that 1:58:03.960 --> 1:58:08.220 breadfruit was imported to that island, but breadfruit was never 1:58:08.340 --> 1:58:11.910 really intended as a food for everyone. It was for 1:58:12.020 --> 1:58:15.740 the poor and the enslaved. And unfortunately, that gave breadfruit 1:58:16.300 --> 1:58:19.560 something of a stigma or a negative reputation in a 1:58:19.600 --> 1:58:21.540 lot of places throughout the Caribbean. And you can even 1:58:21.580 --> 1:58:24.400 still find traces of that today, where it's referred to 1:58:24.520 --> 1:58:28.040 as you know, poor man's food or comida y barro, 1:58:28.260 --> 1:58:31.580 where it's still got that association today with poverty. 1:58:32.340 --> 1:58:35.720 Russell explained that while slavery was still going on, people 1:58:35.760 --> 1:58:39.040 that were able to eat something else absolutely refused to 1:58:39.140 --> 1:58:42.570 eat breadfruit. That's how hated it was, and who could 1:58:42.590 --> 1:58:46.470 really blame them? This reputation as a food for enslaved 1:58:46.510 --> 1:58:50.300 people or something that only people in poverty ate stuck 1:58:50.460 --> 1:58:53.360 around for decades, and one could make the argument that 1:58:53.420 --> 1:58:58.000 some of that sentiment still lingers today. Even if breadfruit's 1:58:58.060 --> 1:59:00.940 reputation has started to turn around, so much of that 1:59:01.080 --> 1:59:06.130 evil history of colonialism and slavery is inescapable. Even now, 1:59:06.390 --> 1:59:08.370 as I read this script, I think about how the 1:59:08.410 --> 1:59:11.190 communities where this fruit grows the most are some of 1:59:11.230 --> 1:59:15.450 the ones most affected by human-caused climate change, which they 1:59:15.510 --> 1:59:20.340 contribute the least to. The Caribbean historically accounts for less 1:59:20.400 --> 1:59:24.460 than 1% of the world's global greenhouse gas emissions, according 1:59:24.480 --> 1:59:29.540 to the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research. Theoretically, there 1:59:29.580 --> 1:59:32.380 could come a day when breadfruit is not as bountiful 1:59:32.500 --> 1:59:34.820 as it once was because of the heat or even 1:59:34.880 --> 1:59:39.930 refuse to grow altogether. Even though breadfruit is certainly climate 1:59:39.970 --> 1:59:42.790 resilient and it can take a lot, it can't survive 1:59:43.070 --> 1:59:46.370 without soil and water. both of which are becoming harder 1:59:46.510 --> 1:59:50.850 and harder to come by day by day. The global south, 1:59:51.090 --> 1:59:53.590 a lot of which relies on breadfruit as part of 1:59:53.630 --> 1:59:56.610 their diet, will no longer be able to grow this 1:59:56.690 --> 2:00:00.960 bountiful tree if we reach certain levels of warming. As 2:00:01.000 --> 2:00:03.800 the hottest year on record morphs into the hottest year 2:00:03.840 --> 2:00:07.220 so far, the global north will likely get to experience 2:00:07.360 --> 2:00:09.940 breadfruit for the first time as areas that were once 2:00:10.020 --> 2:00:13.900 hostile to breadfruit become its new home. This seems to 2:00:14.080 --> 2:00:17.340 already be happening in the Marshall Islands, another place that 2:00:17.400 --> 2:00:20.940 is very, very, very affected by climate change, as in 2:00:21.080 --> 2:00:26.990 they're literally disappearing before our eyes. Their breadfruit, which they 2:00:27.030 --> 2:00:30.470 call ulu, similar to other places in the Pacific, has 2:00:30.530 --> 2:00:34.930 seen better days. They're growing smaller and less bountiful, according 2:00:34.970 --> 2:00:39.100 to one farmer the Civil Beat interviewed. He thinks it's 2:00:39.160 --> 2:00:42.870 salt getting into the soil or the aquifer. While breadfruit 2:00:42.890 --> 2:00:47.810 can resist some salt, the constant presence is killer. Per 2:00:47.870 --> 2:00:50.970 a study published in PLOS Climate about how breadfruit can 2:00:51.030 --> 2:00:54.760 contribute to climate-resilient food systems in areas near the equator, 2:00:55.770 --> 2:00:59.120 the area suitable for breadfruit cultivation in the tropics and 2:00:59.180 --> 2:01:04.120 subtropics is projected to decrease by 4.4% in a scenario 2:01:04.160 --> 2:01:09.080 where we stabilize emissions. aka where emission levels go down 2:01:09.200 --> 2:01:11.900 but do not reach net zero by the year 2100, 2:01:11.900 --> 2:01:18.020 and they'll decrease by about 4.5% in a high-emission scenario, 2:01:18.140 --> 2:01:21.350 which essentially means if we burn even more fossil fuels 2:01:21.550 --> 2:01:26.670 by 2100. In these scenarios, the areas most affected will 2:01:26.690 --> 2:01:29.850 be Latin America and the Caribbean. where a suitable range 2:01:29.900 --> 2:01:34.370 for breadfruit growth will decrease by 10.1% if we stabilize 2:01:34.410 --> 2:01:40.970 emissions and 11.5% in a high-emission scenario. Meanwhile, in Southeast 2:01:41.110 --> 2:01:45.890 Asia and the Pacific, yield quality and consistency show minimal 2:01:45.930 --> 2:01:49.390 decreases under a high-emission scenario, while the land where you 2:01:49.410 --> 2:01:52.950 can plant breadfruit will likely go up. In all regions, 2:01:53.170 --> 2:01:57.070 a high-emission scenario will lead to reduced consistency and quality 2:01:57.140 --> 2:02:00.550 of breadfruit harvests. The narrative of the study ends by 2:02:00.630 --> 2:02:04.190 saying that breadfruit may play a role in alleviating current 2:02:04.250 --> 2:02:10.160 and future food insecurity, particularly in equatorial Africa. When instituted 2:02:10.200 --> 2:02:13.520 with an agroforestry model, as Marisol is doing, it could 2:02:13.560 --> 2:02:18.480 be a potent climate adaptation strategy. This study also mentions 2:02:18.540 --> 2:02:21.500 that its role can be expanded in countries that already 2:02:21.580 --> 2:02:24.360 produce it to become even more of a staple and 2:02:24.400 --> 2:02:27.160 help address growing climate-related issues there. 2:02:28.110 --> 2:02:32.050 Ironically, tropical regions are where you do find some of 2:02:32.130 --> 2:02:37.910 the world's underserved people, people with hunger and malnutrition as 2:02:38.010 --> 2:02:41.930 part of their risks of daily living. So the kinds 2:02:41.990 --> 2:02:45.610 of tree that we plant and the need are very 2:02:45.890 --> 2:02:46.850 well matched. 2:02:47.890 --> 2:02:51.650 That was Mike McLaughlin, co-founder and secretary of the Trees 2:02:51.710 --> 2:02:56.850 That Feed Foundation. a Chicago-based nonprofit whose mission is to 2:02:56.890 --> 2:03:00.940 feed people, create jobs, and benefit the environment. Mike and 2:03:00.960 --> 2:03:04.040 his wife, Mary, who's president of Trees That Feed, grew 2:03:04.100 --> 2:03:08.760 up in Jamaica, where breadfruit is incredibly common. However, they 2:03:08.780 --> 2:03:12.020 didn't think of planting it until years later when they 2:03:12.080 --> 2:03:15.910 realized how badly climate change was affecting the environment as 2:03:16.010 --> 2:03:19.210 well as the problems it was causing around the world. 2:03:19.230 --> 2:03:22.150 And then they started thinking about what they could do 2:03:22.210 --> 2:03:22.510 about it. 2:03:23.340 --> 2:03:26.420 And the reason we wanted to plant fruit trees, it 2:03:26.460 --> 2:03:30.550 was kind of an easier sell. There were, and there 2:03:30.630 --> 2:03:34.990 still are, climate change skeptics, people that don't think anything 2:03:35.030 --> 2:03:39.590 is happening. They're not worried about super El Nino. They're 2:03:39.630 --> 2:03:44.340 not doing anything to reduce our fossil fuel use, our 2:03:44.420 --> 2:03:48.680 carbon footprint. And so because of the skeptics, we said 2:03:48.720 --> 2:03:53.240 if we lead our effort with with climate change and 2:03:54.220 --> 2:03:58.340 solving that problem, we kind of have to do more explaining. 2:03:58.360 --> 2:04:00.880 We're going to be more skeptics. But if we say 2:04:00.900 --> 2:04:04.830 we're planting trees to feed people, everybody understands that. 2:04:04.910 --> 2:04:05.850 They know that. 2:04:06.610 --> 2:04:10.390 Trees that feed gives breadfruit and other trees to farmers 2:04:10.570 --> 2:04:13.450 in more than 20 countries, then teaches them how to 2:04:13.490 --> 2:04:17.190 take care of them, harvest the breadfruit and process it 2:04:17.730 --> 2:04:20.370 so that it can be sold and used to feed 2:04:20.410 --> 2:04:23.860 their families. Part of the reason they have this emphasis 2:04:23.920 --> 2:04:27.700 with farmers is that it reduces reliance on imported food, 2:04:28.380 --> 2:04:31.860 which means that more money circulates in the local economy 2:04:32.480 --> 2:04:37.570 instead of going elsewhere. The organization also buys breadfruit flour 2:04:37.650 --> 2:04:42.530 and other breadfruit-based products from processors and bakeries, then donates 2:04:42.590 --> 2:04:45.450 them to schools as part of their school feeding programs. 2:04:45.840 --> 2:04:49.030 which serves more than 20 schools and orphanages in Haiti, 2:04:49.190 --> 2:04:51.710 which is the second country that they started working with, 2:04:51.910 --> 2:04:56.830 Mike explained. 5.8 million Haitians, a little more than half 2:04:56.870 --> 2:05:00.480 of the country's total population, face crisis levels of food 2:05:00.520 --> 2:05:04.820 insecurity or worse, according to the United Nations World Food Programme. 2:05:05.520 --> 2:05:09.900 More than 250,000 children aged 6 to 59 months are 2:05:09.970 --> 2:05:14.750 projected to suffer from acute malnutrition between June 2026 and 2:05:14.810 --> 2:05:20.010 May 2027, per a UN analysis. Some people in Haiti 2:05:20.110 --> 2:05:23.110 are forced to eat mud cookies, which are exactly what 2:05:23.130 --> 2:05:25.110 they sound like, a little bit of earth, salt, and 2:05:25.270 --> 2:05:29.110 oil that's meant to curb hunger pangs. It's the saddest 2:05:29.150 --> 2:05:31.950 thing Mike's ever heard of, he told me. Trees that 2:05:31.990 --> 2:05:35.280 feed Foundation have tried to substitute that where they can, 2:05:35.950 --> 2:05:38.830 with con pared, a type of bread that's dense like 2:05:38.890 --> 2:05:42.770 cake or a breadfruit porridge. These recipes were co-produced with 2:05:42.810 --> 2:05:46.670 bakers in Haiti and North America, according to the organization's website. 2:05:47.470 --> 2:05:50.570 Part of the trouble of growing so much breadfruit is 2:05:50.640 --> 2:05:53.840 that it ripens really quickly, like within a couple of days, 2:05:53.960 --> 2:05:56.680 it might start rotting if you don't refrigerate it. So 2:05:56.720 --> 2:06:00.440 to combat that, Mike helped create a solar dehydrator that 2:06:00.480 --> 2:06:03.260 can dehydrate breadfruit so that it can be stored without 2:06:03.300 --> 2:06:08.640 refrigeration without affecting the nutritional benefits of the food. This 2:06:08.730 --> 2:06:11.660 means that it can be stored for up to several 2:06:11.740 --> 2:06:17.220 years and still maintain the same nutritional value. What Trees 2:06:17.240 --> 2:06:20.100 That Feed is doing, using breadfruit as a tool for 2:06:20.160 --> 2:06:23.580 sustainable development, is part of its history all along, Russell, 2:06:23.640 --> 2:06:26.060 who's also a board member of the organization, told me 2:06:26.100 --> 2:06:30.150 during our interview. When indigenous communities were carrying it across 2:06:30.170 --> 2:06:33.510 the Pacific, they were hoping to feed themselves wherever they settled. 2:06:34.300 --> 2:06:36.820 Although it was a weapon in service of the evils 2:06:36.860 --> 2:06:40.220 of slavery, the British brought breadfruit to the Caribbean to 2:06:40.260 --> 2:06:43.860 provide food when it became scarce, in large part because 2:06:43.900 --> 2:06:48.460 of their own actions planting monoculture sugar plantations everywhere, to 2:06:48.480 --> 2:06:53.420 be clear. Meanwhile, in modern times, it continues spreading across 2:06:53.460 --> 2:06:56.400 the world as an attempt to feed people suffering through 2:06:56.460 --> 2:07:01.060 hunger because of climate change and other crises. It's time 2:07:01.090 --> 2:07:03.130 to throw the ads, but when we come back, We'll 2:07:03.150 --> 2:07:05.530 wrap this episode up by talking about how the real 2:07:05.610 --> 2:07:08.010 power of breadfruit might have been the friends that we 2:07:08.050 --> 2:07:22.440 made along the way. You're listening to It Could Happen Here. 2:07:22.460 --> 2:07:25.660 I'm your host for today, Carlos. And one thing I 2:07:25.700 --> 2:07:29.160 haven't mentioned yet is about what we call breadfruit in Spanish. 2:07:29.960 --> 2:07:34.620 It has a bunch of names depending on where you are. Panapeng, frutipang, masapang, buempang. 2:07:34.860 --> 2:07:35.520 You get the idea. 2:07:35.580 --> 2:07:36.900 They're all bread related. 2:07:37.420 --> 2:07:41.180 However, what I and millions of other Puerto Ricans call 2:07:41.220 --> 2:07:46.180 it is pana, which is exactly the same way that 2:07:46.220 --> 2:07:50.160 we refer to a close friend. A direct translation would 2:07:50.180 --> 2:07:55.200 be something like buddy or homie. So every breadfruit is 2:07:55.510 --> 2:07:59.670 a friend. This fruit that grows quickly and produces hundreds 2:08:00.120 --> 2:08:02.760 of pounds of food from a single tree that has 2:08:02.820 --> 2:08:06.810 accompanied people into the unknown and been turned from a 2:08:06.890 --> 2:08:11.250 weapon that sustained humanity's greatest evil into a food that 2:08:11.310 --> 2:08:15.370 now helps sustain millions and millions of people every day 2:08:16.270 --> 2:08:20.440 that has started sprouting weeks after disaster raised every other crop, 2:08:20.660 --> 2:08:23.480 that will grow tall and wild without much help, and 2:08:23.640 --> 2:08:28.810 almost always has something to give, is literally named Friend. 2:08:29.690 --> 2:08:32.850 That's the kind of beautiful and surreal that only real 2:08:32.910 --> 2:08:37.550 life could ever be? Marisol from Amazar has a theory 2:08:37.590 --> 2:08:40.140 about why it's called Pana that I think is worth sharing. 2:08:40.800 --> 2:08:42.580 We in Amazar have a theory that it has to 2:08:42.620 --> 2:08:48.840 do that. We have a very strong relationship in Puerto 2:08:48.860 --> 2:08:52.960 Rico with our godfathers. And comadre and compadre is that 2:08:53.000 --> 2:08:57.340 relationship of the parents of the godchild with the godfather 2:08:57.400 --> 2:09:00.120 and godmother of that child. So if I were to 2:09:00.200 --> 2:09:04.960 visit in the 1800s, and we were very, very, very poor, 2:09:05.160 --> 2:09:08.980 extremely poor, and a lot of malnutrition, if I were 2:09:09.020 --> 2:09:12.080 to visit a friend, I would bring a pana. with 2:09:12.160 --> 2:09:15.100 me and here's your pana, here's your pana, a pana. 2:09:15.120 --> 2:09:18.440 So it was kind of like that connotation of I'm 2:09:18.500 --> 2:09:21.240 giving you something to help nurture your family. So that's 2:09:21.260 --> 2:09:24.260 something very special. So if you're really my pana, you're 2:09:24.300 --> 2:09:26.120 dear to me, I will protect you. I will take 2:09:26.180 --> 2:09:28.580 care of you and I will, I will have your back. 2:09:29.700 --> 2:09:32.360 I want to end this episode by returning back to 2:09:32.400 --> 2:09:36.010 La Loma de la Niña Mariana. After my interview with Rosalina, 2:09:36.290 --> 2:09:38.430 when I was on my way out, I stopped to 2:09:38.470 --> 2:09:41.230 take a photo of a mosaic made with hundreds of 2:09:41.290 --> 2:09:45.470 little pieces of colorful tiles. It depicts about a dozen 2:09:45.510 --> 2:09:48.650 hands together in a circle, like they're about to go three, two, one, 2:09:48.730 --> 2:09:49.380 go team. 2:09:50.020 --> 2:09:51.060 There's a breadfruit at. 2:09:51.020 --> 2:09:53.320 The center of the circle, almost as if it's the 2:09:53.360 --> 2:09:56.900 thing they've put their whole faith in. But the inscription 2:09:57.000 --> 2:10:01.160 under the mosaic, glory to the hands that work, makes 2:10:01.220 --> 2:10:03.420 it clear that even though breadfruit might be at the 2:10:03.440 --> 2:10:05.560 center of this art and one of the most important 2:10:05.590 --> 2:10:08.590 things in this community, The real greatest thing that this 2:10:08.630 --> 2:10:12.070 neighborhood has are its people, the ones that are putting 2:10:12.090 --> 2:10:13.800 in the work when it's needed, the ones that are 2:10:13.840 --> 2:10:17.140 making sure to help their neighbors when they need help, 2:10:17.400 --> 2:10:20.040 the ones that are using all this breadfruit and have 2:10:20.160 --> 2:10:22.860 used it to cook for years and years whenever there's 2:10:22.880 --> 2:10:27.550 a crisis. It can't happen without them. Breadfruit might grow 2:10:27.810 --> 2:10:31.570 super quickly. It might be incredibly abundant as a source 2:10:31.610 --> 2:10:34.530 of food, but it can't be used to feed people 2:10:35.240 --> 2:10:38.340 without the community putting in the work to gather it, 2:10:38.500 --> 2:10:40.980 cook it, store it, and then bring it back out 2:10:41.270 --> 2:10:41.860 when it's needed. 2:10:44.770 --> 2:10:48.910 Because to us, if we've done anything, it's that we've 2:10:48.950 --> 2:10:53.690 seeded solidarity. I mean, whenever a situation happens here, people 2:10:53.730 --> 2:10:57.250 show up and immediately ask, how can I help? What 2:10:57.290 --> 2:11:00.470 can I do? Where can I pitch in? People get 2:11:00.530 --> 2:11:03.910 here hauling water with whatever they have at home. Cans 2:11:03.950 --> 2:11:07.990 of beans, rice. Look, I have this, you can start cooking. 2:11:08.630 --> 2:11:11.130 People say, I can get to such and such place 2:11:11.190 --> 2:11:13.130 because I have the right equipment. What can I do? 2:11:13.630 --> 2:11:17.510 We have that in abundance. This community's greatest resource is 2:11:17.570 --> 2:11:21.410 its people. We've always said so. We might not have 2:11:21.450 --> 2:11:24.300 the vast financial resources, but we do have the people. 2:11:24.310 --> 2:11:26.000 And that is. 2:11:25.980 --> 2:11:28.880 The primary resource we work with, and the people to 2:11:28.920 --> 2:11:30.360 whom we owe everything we have here. 2:11:34.290 --> 2:11:37.490 I've been thinking about that mosaic pretty much every day 2:11:37.880 --> 2:11:41.160 since I was at La Loma. While breadfruit is at 2:11:41.200 --> 2:11:44.080 the center, it's the people that are putting in the 2:11:44.120 --> 2:11:47.420 work who are actually able to help one another by 2:11:47.760 --> 2:11:51.490 using breadfruit. It's a powerful reminder that the only way 2:11:51.690 --> 2:11:54.730 out of a crisis is through, that the only way 2:11:54.790 --> 2:11:57.630 through is together. Thanks for listening. 2:12:09.160 --> 2:12:11.380 Welcome back to It Could Happen Here, a show about 2:12:11.420 --> 2:12:16.080 things falling apart. I'm Robert Evans. We all know what 2:12:16.120 --> 2:12:19.570 happened at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2021. Those 2:12:19.590 --> 2:12:23.250 events were so consequential and infamous that I fear people 2:12:23.270 --> 2:12:26.150 have forgotten how they felt about the possibility of an 2:12:26.210 --> 2:12:29.520 attack on the Capitol by a mob of citizens on 2:12:29.580 --> 2:12:32.900 January 5th. That's not something I can forget. as I 2:12:32.940 --> 2:12:35.660 spent my first days of January that year digging through 2:12:35.720 --> 2:12:39.060 thousands of comments on social media and MAGA-focused message boards. 2:12:39.620 --> 2:12:41.760 I came away from my research convinced an attack on 2:12:41.800 --> 2:12:44.460 the Capitol was possible, and I tried to warn people. 2:12:45.160 --> 2:12:47.120 I was not the only researcher who wrote about the 2:12:47.160 --> 2:12:50.260 possibility of an attack on the Capitol before January 6th. 2:12:50.920 --> 2:12:53.740 None of our warnings were heeded, in part because the authorities, 2:12:53.900 --> 2:12:57.390 like most people, considered the odds of a mob successfully 2:12:57.570 --> 2:13:01.580 occupying the Capitol to be right around 0%. The United 2:13:01.640 --> 2:13:04.660 States is the most powerful nation in history, the argument went, 2:13:05.060 --> 2:13:07.710 and the Capitol building and nearby government facilities are some 2:13:07.730 --> 2:13:10.410 of the most hardened targets on Earth. There's no way 2:13:10.470 --> 2:13:13.830 a mob of mostly unarmed protesters could just storm them 2:13:13.990 --> 2:13:17.220 like the Winter Palace and put lawmakers' lives at risk. 2:13:17.640 --> 2:13:18.900 Your fears are a fantasy. 2:13:18.980 --> 2:13:20.440 You're just trying to scare people. 2:13:20.840 --> 2:13:21.250 Shut up. 2:13:21.780 --> 2:13:25.220 Well, we were correct about January 6th, and over the 2:13:25.260 --> 2:13:27.770 last few years, I've begun to worry about something new. 2:13:28.430 --> 2:13:32.370 The name I've given this fear is Nuclear January 6th. Now, 2:13:32.710 --> 2:13:35.410 I'm not talking about an all-out nuclear war here, and 2:13:35.430 --> 2:13:38.030 I'm certainly not talking about a nuclear strike on the U.S. Capitol, 2:13:38.050 --> 2:13:40.950 although that's one possible way this could occur. You're all 2:13:41.230 --> 2:13:45.510 readily familiar with the possibility and consequences of Atomic Holocaust, 2:13:45.950 --> 2:13:47.840 and I'm not using that term for the possibility of 2:13:47.880 --> 2:13:51.460 a terrorist organization or their non-state actor acquiring a nuke 2:13:51.540 --> 2:13:55.620 or dirty bomb, which remains possible, but let's say unlikely. 2:13:56.430 --> 2:13:59.810 A nuclear January 6th would be a lot like its namesake, 2:14:00.070 --> 2:14:03.980 a catastrophic event that would have seemed impossible, even laughably so, 2:14:04.100 --> 2:14:07.320 before it occurred and involves the use of a nuclear weapon. 2:14:08.100 --> 2:14:11.540 A nuclear January 6th, then, would be a fuck-up, either 2:14:11.600 --> 2:14:15.260 a disastrous nuclear error caused by incompetence or a limited 2:14:15.340 --> 2:14:20.450 nuclear deployment inspired by incompetence. Either way, the scenario I'm 2:14:20.490 --> 2:14:23.490 envisioning doesn't mean the end of the world, It means 2:14:23.710 --> 2:14:25.850 one or at most a small number of warheads are 2:14:25.950 --> 2:14:29.300 detonated for a very stupid reason, and we're all left 2:14:29.360 --> 2:14:31.940 to move forward in a world that is now permanently 2:14:32.020 --> 2:14:37.580 less safe. In 1989, American political scientist Robert Jervis published 2:14:37.600 --> 2:14:41.010 a book titled The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution, Statecraft 2:14:41.070 --> 2:14:44.310 and the Prospect of Armageddon. Looking out at the international 2:14:44.350 --> 2:14:47.190 situation at the tail end of the Cold War, Jervis 2:14:47.310 --> 2:14:51.520 argued that war between nuclear powers was now unthinkable. Within 2:14:51.540 --> 2:14:54.040 the context of that conflict, he was correct. 2:14:54.480 --> 2:14:55.160 Both the U.S. 2:14:55.200 --> 2:14:58.340 And the USSR, despite their separate battalions of war hawks 2:14:58.400 --> 2:15:02.970 and substantial doses of paranoia, avoided stepping over the nuclear brink. 2:15:03.590 --> 2:15:07.750 The men who ran both nations clearly considered nuclear war unthinkable. 2:15:08.550 --> 2:15:10.970 In the decades since the Cold War's end, the nations 2:15:11.010 --> 2:15:13.510 of the world have continued to avoid nuking us all 2:15:13.550 --> 2:15:16.990 into Cormac McCarthy's The Road. But there is an unfortunate 2:15:17.040 --> 2:15:19.200 amount of evidence that some of the people in charge 2:15:19.240 --> 2:15:22.000 of the great powers of our time no longer find 2:15:22.080 --> 2:15:25.820 deploying a nuke to be unthinkable, even against other nuclear powers. 2:15:26.640 --> 2:15:29.420 The clearest example of this comes from the Russian Federation 2:15:29.480 --> 2:15:33.020 and its activities in Ukraine. Back in January, The Bell, 2:15:33.150 --> 2:15:36.510 an independent Russian news site, reported on building support in 2:15:36.550 --> 2:15:39.850 the Kremlin for the battlefield use of a tactical nuclear weapon. 2:15:40.410 --> 2:15:43.190 This was thought to most likely occur over Crimea. 2:15:43.550 --> 2:15:43.890 A 2022 U.S. 2:15:44.010 --> 2:15:49.190 Intel assessment independently estimated 50% odds that Putin would order 2:15:49.210 --> 2:15:52.470 a nuclear strike if the defenses around Crimea began to fail. 2:15:53.170 --> 2:15:56.510 Russian nuclear doctrine today supports the use of atomic weapons 2:15:56.570 --> 2:15:59.930 against an existential threat. And as Kieran Monks writes in 2:15:59.970 --> 2:16:04.040 a piece for iNews, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov 2:16:04.120 --> 2:16:06.860 said this morning this meant encroachments on Russia or its 2:16:06.900 --> 2:16:10.720 territorial integrity by aggressors, including those who may possess such weapons, 2:16:11.100 --> 2:16:14.140 could prompt us to use these weapons in the worst-case scenario. 2:16:14.980 --> 2:16:17.820 The loss of Crimea, which Putin calls an inseparable part 2:16:17.860 --> 2:16:22.370 of Russia, could technically reach that threshold, said Dr. Pavel Podvig, 2:16:22.470 --> 2:16:25.310 a senior researcher and specialist on Russia's nuclear forces at 2:16:25.350 --> 2:16:29.850 the UN Institute for Disarmament Research. Now, my understanding of 2:16:29.890 --> 2:16:32.670 the situation in Ukraine is that Crimea is not under 2:16:32.730 --> 2:16:37.500 imminent danger of being retaken by Ukrainian forces, somewhat unfortunately. However, 2:16:37.580 --> 2:16:41.020 the vagueness of Russia's nuclear line being an existential threat 2:16:41.550 --> 2:16:43.789 means that they might well decide one day that diesel 2:16:43.830 --> 2:16:47.110 refining facilities count, given the centrality of oil exports to 2:16:47.129 --> 2:16:51.300 their economy. Sergei Karaganov, head of a defense industry think 2:16:51.340 --> 2:16:54.180 tank in Moscow and former advisor to Putin, is among 2:16:54.240 --> 2:16:57.820 Russia's largest nuclear hawks. He has recently argued for limited 2:16:57.879 --> 2:17:01.300 nuclear strikes on Ukraine's European allies. I bring this up 2:17:01.340 --> 2:17:04.199 not because that's a scenario I'm discussing today. If Russia 2:17:04.250 --> 2:17:06.430 nuked a NATO country, that would be a de facto 2:17:06.450 --> 2:17:08.490 strike on a nuclear power and would likely end up 2:17:08.530 --> 2:17:12.019 being much worse than my nuclear January 6th theory. I 2:17:12.060 --> 2:17:14.560 bring this up because comments like this from Russia have 2:17:14.580 --> 2:17:17.100 contributed to an unfortunate trend in U.S. 2:17:17.120 --> 2:17:17.900 Defense circles. 2:17:18.459 --> 2:17:23.250 Serious discussion about the need for expanded low-yield tactical nuclear options. 2:17:23.370 --> 2:17:27.110 And folks, remember, when we're saying low-yield nuclear weapons, we're 2:17:27.150 --> 2:17:29.869 still often talking about stuff at least on par with 2:17:29.890 --> 2:17:33.920 the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs, if not still considerably more powerful. 2:17:33.980 --> 2:17:38.480 Those count as low-yield weapons today. For most of our lifetimes, 2:17:38.890 --> 2:17:41.550 The U.S. has focused its nuclear research and buildup on 2:17:41.590 --> 2:17:45.580 what we might call big civilization-ending doomsday nukes. I'm using 2:17:45.620 --> 2:17:48.050 a little hyperbole there, but not much. Most of our 2:17:48.129 --> 2:17:49.970 standing nuclear weapons are strategic. 2:17:50.340 --> 2:17:50.820 In nature. 2:17:51.240 --> 2:17:53.539 That means they're very big, and they're meant to deter 2:17:53.620 --> 2:17:56.400 an enemy from launching a full-scale nuclear attack on us. 2:17:57.120 --> 2:18:00.939 The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists estimates that about 94% of 2:18:01.140 --> 2:18:05.690 all actively deployed U.S. warheads are long-range strategic weapons. As 2:18:05.750 --> 2:18:08.650 Gabriel Honrada noted in an article for Asia Times, this 2:18:08.709 --> 2:18:12.910 makes tactical nukes a, quote, small, specialized component of overall U.S. 2:18:12.950 --> 2:18:13.769 Nuclear posture. 2:18:14.490 --> 2:18:16.769 You and I might consider that a good thing because 2:18:16.890 --> 2:18:19.230 any nuke small enough to use safely is likelier to 2:18:19.350 --> 2:18:23.080 get used. However, when defense planners hear the U.S. has 2:18:23.140 --> 2:18:27.039 very few tactical nukes alongside news articles about Russia threatening 2:18:27.080 --> 2:18:30.580 to use small tactical nukes, a funny thing happens. They 2:18:30.600 --> 2:18:33.620 begin to worry about a gap between our capability and 2:18:33.660 --> 2:18:36.470 that of an adversary. Fears of that gap have been 2:18:36.550 --> 2:18:40.830 further exacerbated by recent significant modernization of China's nuclear arsenal. 2:18:41.530 --> 2:18:44.370 In the last few years, the Chinese military has massively 2:18:44.430 --> 2:18:47.770 increased the quality of their nuclear weapons and the related equipment, 2:18:47.810 --> 2:18:50.660 the delivery devices and such. I'm not going to go 2:18:50.740 --> 2:18:53.860 into a nerdy, fear-mongery deep dive about the exact capabilities 2:18:53.900 --> 2:18:56.950 of these new tools. That doesn't really matter today. What 2:18:57.030 --> 2:19:00.920 does matter is that in August of 2026, U.S. Undersecretary 2:19:00.950 --> 2:19:04.759 of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby initiated a policy review 2:19:04.980 --> 2:19:08.340 of the nation's nuclear posture. The stated goal of this 2:19:08.420 --> 2:19:11.990 review is, per coverage by Breaking Defense, quote, focused on 2:19:12.020 --> 2:19:16.430 providing more options for the White House. Undersecretary Colby expressed 2:19:16.470 --> 2:19:19.930 the need for what he called rational nuclear options to 2:19:19.970 --> 2:19:22.810 deal with the changing threats from China and Russia. And, 2:19:22.970 --> 2:19:26.179 as Honrada wrote in his article, The policy review comes 2:19:26.240 --> 2:19:30.560 amid longstanding U.S. DOD concerns over foreign deployments in low-yield warheads, 2:19:30.640 --> 2:19:35.039 which risk leaving the U.S. without proportional non-strategic responses. An 2:19:35.080 --> 2:19:38.630 expansion in the number of, and potentially the in-theater deployment of, 2:19:38.830 --> 2:19:43.070 low-yield nuclear weapons does not guarantee their use. Low-yield nukes 2:19:43.090 --> 2:19:45.929 have been deployed to hot zones or potential hot zones before, 2:19:46.190 --> 2:19:48.490 albeit decades ago during the height of the Cold War. 2:19:49.180 --> 2:19:51.920 But I have trouble looking at this current administration in 2:19:51.959 --> 2:19:55.260 the U.S. and so much of the bombastic, kill-obsessed rhetoric 2:19:55.300 --> 2:19:57.930 that comes out of the Department of War these days 2:19:58.490 --> 2:20:01.490 and believing that the terms low-yield and tactical won't be 2:20:01.530 --> 2:20:05.810 interpreted as safe to use. In fact, there's a real 2:20:05.910 --> 2:20:08.100 chance that just by accepting the need for more of 2:20:08.110 --> 2:20:11.600 these weapons and deploying some near-conflict regions, we'll start a 2:20:11.660 --> 2:20:14.940 countdown whereby some of our current defense thinkers convince themselves 2:20:14.980 --> 2:20:17.120 there's a ticking clock. and they need to find a 2:20:17.220 --> 2:20:20.280 target for a low-yield nuclear strike to prove we've got 2:20:20.340 --> 2:20:23.730 the guts to use this thing. If that sounds far-fetched, 2:20:23.940 --> 2:20:25.340 I want you to think back to April of 2017, 2:20:25.330 --> 2:20:28.990 when the U.S. conducted an airstrike in Afghanistan using the 2:20:29.030 --> 2:20:32.790 largest non-nuclear weapon we've got, the MOAB. There were some 2:20:32.870 --> 2:20:35.810 logical reasons for such a strike. ISIS fighters were using 2:20:35.870 --> 2:20:38.110 a tunnel network, and the MOAB is meant to penetrate 2:20:38.150 --> 2:20:41.310 and take out such underground targets. That said, there's no 2:20:41.390 --> 2:20:44.849 evidence this facility or the 36-ish ISIS fighters killed in 2:20:44.879 --> 2:20:48.090 the blasts represented a threat to U.S. interests in the region, 2:20:48.150 --> 2:20:52.730 necessitating such a dramatic response. Many pundits suspected the real 2:20:52.810 --> 2:20:54.950 reason we dropped this big bomb had more to do 2:20:54.990 --> 2:20:58.230 with Trump's campaign promise to bomb the shit out of ISIS. 2:20:58.950 --> 2:21:02.750 Faisal Pervez, an analyst for the military intelligence forum Stratfor, 2:21:03.129 --> 2:21:06.879 told Vice his suspicions. We drop a bomb that weighs 2:21:06.879 --> 2:21:07.240 21,000 pounds. 2:21:07.330 --> 2:21:08.240 That's so big. 2:21:08.610 --> 2:21:10.209 I think a part of it, or some part of it, 2:21:10.280 --> 2:21:12.860 is the messaging and the symbolic significance that the U.S. 2:21:12.900 --> 2:21:15.180 is sending out to countries such as Russia. that we 2:21:15.220 --> 2:21:17.520 are the premier military in the world. We are the 2:21:17.540 --> 2:21:19.890 biggest power. We have the tools and weapons to show 2:21:19.910 --> 2:21:23.029 you that this is the case. Well, the same man 2:21:23.070 --> 2:21:25.450 who dropped that bomb is back in power now. We 2:21:25.490 --> 2:21:27.930 are fighting a losing war with Iran that has endangered 2:21:27.970 --> 2:21:32.150 his power. Back in April of 2026, President Trump threatened 2:21:32.190 --> 2:21:35.629 Iran by saying, a whole civilization will die tonight if 2:21:35.670 --> 2:21:39.010 the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. More recently, he's 2:21:39.050 --> 2:21:41.730 mused that Iran might take out Los Angeles or San 2:21:41.750 --> 2:21:44.620 Diego with a nuclear weapon someday. which he viewed as 2:21:44.650 --> 2:21:46.910 a small price to pay for the permission that would 2:21:46.950 --> 2:21:50.670 give the U.S. to annihilate Iran in return. We'll keep 2:21:50.709 --> 2:21:53.290 talking about this, but first, here's some ads. 2:22:04.720 --> 2:22:05.140 We're back. 2:22:06.720 --> 2:22:10.480 If more low-yield nuclear weapons are built and deployed, they 2:22:10.520 --> 2:22:14.250 will become in startlingly short time just another option on 2:22:14.270 --> 2:22:18.820 the menu for military planners. We might expect decade-standing traditions 2:22:18.959 --> 2:22:21.800 against using such weapons to count for something, but as 2:22:21.820 --> 2:22:24.500 you're aware, Pete Hegseth has purged a huge number of 2:22:24.560 --> 2:22:27.860 veteran leaders from the Department of Defense. Similar brain drains 2:22:27.900 --> 2:22:31.210 have occurred across all of our primary national security institutions. 2:22:31.670 --> 2:22:33.810 There are fewer cooler heads to prevail. 2:22:33.830 --> 2:22:37.410 Hegseth has also made lethality and kill count into our 2:22:37.450 --> 2:22:41.710 military's primary measure of operational success. More to my point, today, 2:22:41.750 --> 2:22:45.860 the entire Trump administration runs on social media. Truth social, Twitter, 2:22:45.879 --> 2:22:49.260 and TikTok aren't just organs the regime uses to disseminate propaganda. 2:22:49.300 --> 2:22:51.619 They are where Donald Trump and his advisors go for 2:22:51.680 --> 2:22:55.300 information and to take the pulse of the nation. Let's 2:22:55.340 --> 2:22:58.700 consider one possible chain of events. Some months from now, 2:22:58.940 --> 2:23:02.000 Trump orders a tactical nuke deployed with our forces attacking Iran. 2:23:02.379 --> 2:23:04.550 The plan isn't to use it, but to threaten the 2:23:04.620 --> 2:23:08.070 enemy and generate a groundswell of rage among Trump's domestic enemies, 2:23:08.110 --> 2:23:11.070 which is always something he thinks about. Soon after the 2:23:11.110 --> 2:23:14.750 weapon arrives, Iranian forces score a major hit. Maybe one 2:23:14.770 --> 2:23:17.429 of their ballistic missile strikes and damages a naval vessel 2:23:17.490 --> 2:23:20.129 killing soldiers. Maybe they hit a base and cause an 2:23:20.190 --> 2:23:23.640 unprecedented loss of lives and materiel. Such a strike is 2:23:23.750 --> 2:23:26.820 not impossible. It could happen tomorrow, and it would not 2:23:26.900 --> 2:23:30.140 need to debilitate or cripple our military forces long term 2:23:30.440 --> 2:23:33.620 to provoke Donald Trump into a nuclear response. All it 2:23:33.660 --> 2:23:36.600 would need to do is embarrass him. At his footage 2:23:36.680 --> 2:23:39.720 spreads of fire raging atop an aircraft carrier or a 2:23:39.800 --> 2:23:42.840 burning frigate listing at sea or wounded and dying U.S. 2:23:42.900 --> 2:23:46.730 soldiers near a base, Trump's followers begin howling for blood 2:23:46.780 --> 2:23:50.090 on social media. One cry sounds out louder than all 2:23:50.110 --> 2:23:50.550 the others. 2:23:51.129 --> 2:23:53.830 Nuke the bastards. Trump might. 2:23:54.590 --> 2:23:56.949 Such a strike would be unlikely to cause an immediate 2:23:56.990 --> 2:24:01.330 apocalyptic cascade into nuclear war. There would be international outrage, 2:24:01.370 --> 2:24:05.209 but not outright retaliation. Even so, in a stroke, Trump 2:24:05.230 --> 2:24:08.150 would have dissolved any remaining stigma against the use of 2:24:08.209 --> 2:24:12.160 nuclear weapons in war. This would make Russia much likelier 2:24:12.220 --> 2:24:15.640 to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine. It might change 2:24:15.720 --> 2:24:19.800 Chinese calculations, RE Taiwan, but what it would inarguably do 2:24:20.220 --> 2:24:24.689 is make nuclear weapons a normal, conceivable, usable tool of 2:24:24.790 --> 2:24:28.170 conventional war. I don't know how long it would take 2:24:28.250 --> 2:24:31.070 the breaking of that taboo to generate a larger nuclear war, 2:24:31.550 --> 2:24:33.910 But I believe after this point, such a future would 2:24:33.930 --> 2:24:38.089 become almost inevitable. It is still quite possible, even likelier, 2:24:38.290 --> 2:24:40.709 that Russia would be the first nation-state to break the 2:24:40.750 --> 2:24:43.209 taboo and use a tactical nuke for the reasons I've 2:24:43.230 --> 2:24:46.699 just outlined. This might lead to a similar outcome worldwide, 2:24:46.720 --> 2:24:49.280 although I'm less certain of that. Russia is considered an 2:24:49.300 --> 2:24:52.140 international pariah to many in ways that the United States 2:24:52.220 --> 2:24:55.660 still isn't quite. That said, I have no doubt that 2:24:55.680 --> 2:24:58.080 the ultimate chain of events leading to such a deployment 2:24:58.120 --> 2:24:59.820 would be just as stupid as they would be in 2:24:59.860 --> 2:25:03.610 the United States. China feels less likely to be the 2:25:03.629 --> 2:25:07.350 direct cause of such a deployment. Their nuclear policy originated 2:25:07.410 --> 2:25:10.830 from Mao Zedong. He did not love nuclear weapons, calling 2:25:10.850 --> 2:25:13.400 them a paper tiger and talking shit on the US 2:25:13.440 --> 2:25:15.959 and the USSR for building so many of the damn things. 2:25:16.420 --> 2:25:19.660 When China became a nuclear state in 1964, Mao stated 2:25:19.680 --> 2:25:22.599 the only use for this thing, his term for the bomb, 2:25:23.020 --> 2:25:27.080 was to deter other nuclear-armed countries. As a result, China 2:25:27.100 --> 2:25:30.990 has always had an official no-first-use policy with their nuclear arsenal. 2:25:31.470 --> 2:25:33.849 This differs from the U.S. and Russia, who operate by 2:25:33.930 --> 2:25:36.450 launch on warn. In other words, if we think you're 2:25:36.490 --> 2:25:40.000 going to nuke us, we will nuke you. China's official 2:25:40.040 --> 2:25:44.580 policy is minimum deterrence. That's generally translated to mean we 2:25:44.620 --> 2:25:47.620 keep our arsenal at the minimum level necessary to deter 2:25:47.700 --> 2:25:50.900 our adversaries. However, in an article on the evolution of 2:25:50.959 --> 2:25:55.260 China's nuclear posture, the website DEFCON Warning System notes, This 2:25:55.320 --> 2:26:00.020 declaratory posture also embodies China's strategic ambiguity. For one, minimum 2:26:00.060 --> 2:26:03.980 deterrence remains undefined. Chinese officials have never quantified what a 2:26:04.060 --> 2:26:07.180 minimum nuclear capability means in practice. Is it a few 2:26:07.240 --> 2:26:08.820 dozen warheads able to strike back? 2:26:09.120 --> 2:26:09.760 A few hundred? 2:26:10.340 --> 2:26:13.970 As China's arsenal grows, the goalposts appear to shift. Similarly, 2:26:14.050 --> 2:26:17.690 what constitutes an arms race is left vague. Beijing's current buildup, 2:26:17.790 --> 2:26:20.830 by far its largest and fastest ever, ostensibly does not 2:26:20.870 --> 2:26:23.510 violate its pledge to avoid arms racing, at least in 2:26:23.570 --> 2:26:27.090 its own view. Crucially, China's nuclear doctrine has begun to 2:26:27.140 --> 2:26:31.660 stress achieving strategic counterbalance with other powers. Though not officially defined, 2:26:31.720 --> 2:26:34.800 this phrase suggests Beijing sees its nuclear forces as vital 2:26:34.840 --> 2:26:37.859 to shaping the global power equilibrium. It implies a more 2:26:37.920 --> 2:26:40.740 assertive role for nukes, not merely to deter an attack 2:26:40.820 --> 2:26:43.859 on China, but to offset the overall military might of rivals, 2:26:43.959 --> 2:26:48.210 particularly the United States. This nuanced shift in language contributes 2:26:48.250 --> 2:26:52.170 to uncertainty. Does counterbalance mean China seeks nuclear parity with 2:26:52.190 --> 2:26:55.430 the U.S. or simply a survivable second strike? The lack 2:26:55.470 --> 2:26:59.350 of clarity keeps observers guessing. Now, I don't bring any 2:26:59.370 --> 2:27:02.189 of this up with the interest of fear-mongering over China, 2:27:02.230 --> 2:27:05.390 but because the questions and ambiguities outlined in that segment 2:27:05.470 --> 2:27:08.400 are a real cause for concern to the defense analysts 2:27:08.450 --> 2:27:10.619 who study China, not just for the U.S. 2:27:10.680 --> 2:27:12.000 Government, but over in New Delhi. 2:27:12.540 --> 2:27:15.420 The Indian state is locked in a continuous low-level border 2:27:15.480 --> 2:27:19.620 conflict with China, alongside their border conflict with Pakistan, also 2:27:19.660 --> 2:27:23.520 a nuclear-armed state. Both China and India have been extremely 2:27:23.580 --> 2:27:27.030 careful to avoid bringing nuclear threats to the table. But 2:27:27.050 --> 2:27:30.250 that only underlines how much leaders in both nations fear 2:27:30.290 --> 2:27:34.010 the possibility. And over on their border with Pakistan, nuclear 2:27:34.030 --> 2:27:37.810 threats have come up recently. 2025 saw a large skirmish 2:27:37.850 --> 2:27:39.930 between India and Pakistan that included crossfire. 2:27:40.600 --> 2:27:41.300 Aerial raids. 2:27:41.820 --> 2:27:44.780 After several days of this, Pakistan's foreign secretary issued a 2:27:44.820 --> 2:27:47.860 statement on May 28th. We will not hesitate to use 2:27:48.060 --> 2:27:51.200 any weapon in our arsenal to defend our territorial integrity. 2:27:52.050 --> 2:27:54.609 This was interpreted as a nuclear threat and caused a 2:27:54.790 --> 2:27:58.619 massive international ruckus. which prompted a spokesman for Pakistan's government 2:27:58.640 --> 2:28:02.039 to clarify that that was not the intent. We all 2:28:02.120 --> 2:28:05.180 lucked out that the May 2025 conflict did not occur 2:28:05.240 --> 2:28:07.760 at the same time as another uptick in hostility between 2:28:07.800 --> 2:28:10.820 Beijing and New Delhi, but it's easy to imagine something 2:28:10.840 --> 2:28:13.720 like that might occur. In the event of such a conflict, 2:28:13.900 --> 2:28:17.250 Pakistan would rely heavily on their naval forces, armed with 2:28:17.280 --> 2:28:20.730 nuclear weapons, to complete the third leg of their nuclear triad. 2:28:21.530 --> 2:28:25.129 Having a nuclear triad, which means having separate land, sea, 2:28:25.190 --> 2:28:28.720 and air-based weapon systems that can deploy nuclear weapons, is 2:28:28.750 --> 2:28:32.900 considered the gold standard for nuclear deterrence. Most nations that 2:28:33.040 --> 2:28:35.580 have one fulfill the third leg of the triad with 2:28:35.640 --> 2:28:39.740 nuclear-armed attack submarines. The most advanced of these are, inarguably, 2:28:40.000 --> 2:28:44.120 the deadliest weapon systems ever devised by man. Pakistan is 2:28:44.200 --> 2:28:46.600 generally considered to be the nuclear power with the least 2:28:46.670 --> 2:28:50.590 reliable protections for their arsenal. These have long inspired fear 2:28:50.610 --> 2:28:53.000 that Pakistan might lose control of a weapon or that 2:28:53.060 --> 2:28:55.600 rogue elements of their security services might give one to 2:28:55.640 --> 2:28:58.900 a terrorist group. That's not my concern here. One of 2:28:58.940 --> 2:29:01.340 my sources for these episodes was an article in the 2:29:01.379 --> 2:29:04.550 Defense and Security Analysis Journal. Its authors point out that 2:29:04.580 --> 2:29:07.129 in recent years, Pakistan has done a decent job of 2:29:07.209 --> 2:29:09.670 sealing some of the former security holes in their nuclear 2:29:09.709 --> 2:29:14.269 weapons systems. However, as one researcher noted in 2014, Parts 2:29:14.310 --> 2:29:17.350 of Pakistan's nuclear management system, like its command element, have 2:29:17.370 --> 2:29:20.600 been reasonably transparent. Other parts, like the physical security and 2:29:20.680 --> 2:29:23.900 surety human reliability elements, have been at best translucent. 2:29:24.300 --> 2:29:25.720 In many areas, there are only. 2:29:25.580 --> 2:29:28.000 Bald assertions that programs and methods have been put into 2:29:28.040 --> 2:29:31.480 place with very few details provided. One of the parts 2:29:31.560 --> 2:29:34.200 of their management system we know least about is the 2:29:34.280 --> 2:29:39.050 rules under which shipboard nuclear weapons operate. In theory, any 2:29:39.129 --> 2:29:42.390 nuclear weapons used by Pakistani forces would have to be 2:29:42.629 --> 2:29:46.900 authorized by a special 10-man committee. It's believed, but not known, 2:29:47.180 --> 2:29:50.600 that some systems require both a civilian and military key 2:29:50.640 --> 2:29:53.340 to be provided in order for the weapons to become operable. 2:29:54.000 --> 2:29:56.570 This is because Pakistan's military has a long history of 2:29:56.620 --> 2:29:59.990 outright running the shop. Today, civilian leadership is meant to 2:30:00.030 --> 2:30:02.730 have much more oversight. One example of this is the 2:30:02.770 --> 2:30:05.730 fact that all air and land-based nuclear weapons in Pakistan 2:30:05.830 --> 2:30:09.290 are stored separate from their delivery systems. This makes them 2:30:09.370 --> 2:30:11.910 harder to steal and makes it more complex for, say, 2:30:12.050 --> 2:30:14.190 rogue military leaders to get a hold of a piece 2:30:14.230 --> 2:30:17.699 of the arsenal. But we already know that Pakistan's naval 2:30:17.740 --> 2:30:20.959 nukes do not work exactly the same way. Per that 2:30:21.000 --> 2:30:24.580 journal article, quote, Little information is available for the naval 2:30:24.620 --> 2:30:27.600 leg of Pakistan's deterrent, currently based on the Babur III 2:30:27.680 --> 2:30:31.940 submarine-launched cruise missile. First test-fired in 2017 and described by 2:30:32.000 --> 2:30:36.240 Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations as a second-strike capability because of 2:30:36.280 --> 2:30:38.660 its naval requirements, the Babur III is assumed to be 2:30:38.760 --> 2:30:42.300 pre-mated and contained within a vertical launch system or similar 2:30:42.360 --> 2:30:46.760 canisterized device. Procedures meant to inhibit the use of nuclear 2:30:46.800 --> 2:30:51.330 weapons outside authorized uses are called negative controls. We do 2:30:51.390 --> 2:30:55.090 not know what negative controls Pakistan has for their naval weapons. 2:30:55.540 --> 2:30:59.310 it is entirely possible the military remains in total control 2:30:59.350 --> 2:31:03.050 here and justifies that as necessary for guaranteeing their ability 2:31:03.090 --> 2:31:06.750 to launch retaliatory strikes against India. I want you to 2:31:06.870 --> 2:31:10.150 think right now about a fun new development in technology 2:31:10.190 --> 2:31:13.360 that we've all witnessed, the growth of generative AI tools 2:31:13.420 --> 2:31:16.560 that can convincingly mimic both human posters on social media 2:31:16.940 --> 2:31:21.280 and create believable fake videos, including fake news videos. These 2:31:21.340 --> 2:31:24.039 and similar tools make it possible to flood any region 2:31:24.070 --> 2:31:27.510 with targeted disinformation and make it seem legitimate, at least 2:31:27.550 --> 2:31:30.950 for a short span of time. Earlier this year, in 2:31:30.990 --> 2:31:34.930 March of 2026, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published 2:31:34.950 --> 2:31:38.320 a theoretical article by Herbert Lin. He's a Stanford fellow 2:31:38.379 --> 2:31:41.460 and expert on cyber warfare operations who in 2016 worked 2:31:41.480 --> 2:31:44.740 for the Obama administration. Back in the 1980s, he was 2:31:44.780 --> 2:31:47.520 a staff scientist for the House Armed Services Committee, so 2:31:47.540 --> 2:31:49.949 he's a guy with some knowledge of this area. The 2:31:50.000 --> 2:31:53.280 article he put together envisions several scenarios in which AI 2:31:53.340 --> 2:31:57.340 tools might help cause or exacerbate a nuclear conflict. None 2:31:57.360 --> 2:32:00.720 of his scenarios involved anything like Skynet. The dangers he 2:32:00.780 --> 2:32:03.490 foresees from AI come not from its intelligence so much 2:32:03.550 --> 2:32:06.550 as its ability to automate the production of targeted bullshit 2:32:06.870 --> 2:32:10.789 and influence the decisions of political leaders. And speaking of 2:32:10.850 --> 2:32:13.000 targeted bullshit, here's some ads. 2:32:24.590 --> 2:32:25.070 We're back. 2:32:25.290 --> 2:32:27.490 And I was talking about an article for the Bulletin 2:32:27.629 --> 2:32:31.670 of the Atomic Scientists written by Herbert Lin. One of 2:32:31.709 --> 2:32:35.090 his scenarios envisioned a blockade of Taiwan in which the 2:32:35.129 --> 2:32:38.470 Chinese military deployed an army of AI chatbots to lie 2:32:38.510 --> 2:32:41.160 about military maneuvers in order to create the impression of 2:32:41.240 --> 2:32:45.500 high military readiness to deter U.S. intervention. I don't consider 2:32:45.540 --> 2:32:48.220 this specific scenario very likely, but I do think he's 2:32:48.379 --> 2:32:51.430 on to something with passages like this. The accounts adopt 2:32:51.490 --> 2:32:54.500 personas of professionals or students isolated by the crisis and 2:32:54.540 --> 2:32:57.360 connect with foreigners through the full suite of channels described above. 2:32:57.860 --> 2:33:01.650 These spaces attract not only their regular users, but also journalists, analysts, 2:33:01.680 --> 2:33:05.310 and even mid-level Pentagon staffers looking for unfiltered intelligence. In 2:33:05.410 --> 2:33:08.430 one instance, a bot mimicking a 28-year-old engineer named Li 2:33:08.470 --> 2:33:12.640 Wei claims, I saw convoys with TELs heading east. DF-26 2:33:12.760 --> 2:33:16.490 is probably, referring to mobile transporter erector launches used to 2:33:16.530 --> 2:33:21.349 launch ballistic missiles and land-based dual-capable DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. 2:33:21.810 --> 2:33:26.490 Before adding, sirens everywhere, evacuation starting. Then screenshots start flooding 2:33:26.510 --> 2:33:29.570 the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, amplified 2:33:29.610 --> 2:33:33.269 by coordinated sock puppets. The bots adapt seamlessly to queries, 2:33:33.629 --> 2:33:37.910 cross-referencing real-time U.S. open-source chatter for added plausibility. A user 2:33:37.950 --> 2:33:40.500 of Tinder, a dating app in Washington, D.C., matched with 2:33:40.560 --> 2:33:44.490 Wang Mei, a fabricated nurse in Ximen, who relays her 2:33:44.530 --> 2:33:47.510 alleged eyewitness panic about explosions near the port and prepping 2:33:47.550 --> 2:33:50.830 of hypersonic weapons, which aligns with the partial satellite imagery 2:33:50.870 --> 2:33:53.970 glitches caused by Chinese jamming and begins to see doubt 2:33:54.070 --> 2:33:58.029 in U.S. intelligence assessments. State media subtly echoes these stories, 2:33:58.170 --> 2:34:00.120 framing them as grassroots outrage at U.S. 2:34:00.160 --> 2:34:00.760 Provocation. 2:34:01.320 --> 2:34:03.820 In the United States, some of this material migrates into 2:34:03.879 --> 2:34:07.900 expert discourse. Open-source intelligence analysts, journalists, and think tank experts 2:34:07.940 --> 2:34:12.039 incorporate screenshots and chat logs into maps, timelines, and situation reports, 2:34:12.540 --> 2:34:14.740 and present them on cable news and in policy briefs 2:34:14.800 --> 2:34:18.840 as independent confirmations of missile movements. Congressional staffers and allied 2:34:18.879 --> 2:34:21.720 governments cite these products in their own assessments, generating a 2:34:21.780 --> 2:34:26.100 feedback loop in which fabricated chats appear as triangulated, multi-source evidence. 2:34:27.620 --> 2:34:29.920 I think the only weakness of Lin's article is his 2:34:30.020 --> 2:34:33.730 focus on scenarios that lead to mass nuclear exchange and 2:34:33.770 --> 2:34:36.670 in his insistence on considering nation states as the only 2:34:36.750 --> 2:34:40.110 relevant actors in most of these escalation cycles. But the 2:34:40.129 --> 2:34:43.709 basic process he outlined there, a bad actor flooding regional 2:34:43.770 --> 2:34:46.949 social media with disinformation designed to look like OSINT that 2:34:47.010 --> 2:34:51.580 suggests an imminent attack, that's entirely possible and you wouldn't 2:34:51.640 --> 2:34:54.010 need a nation state level actor to pull it off. 2:34:54.790 --> 2:34:59.070 Let's say you have a well-funded non-state group of ideological hardliners. 2:34:59.129 --> 2:35:02.530 Let's imagine them as partisans of India or Pakistan, right? 2:35:02.970 --> 2:35:05.349 You could also imagine they're just trolls, eager to add 2:35:05.420 --> 2:35:09.260 confusion for the lulz. Or more insidiously, you could imagine 2:35:09.280 --> 2:35:12.180 them as motivated to pull off a massive score gambling 2:35:12.220 --> 2:35:15.180 on world events by betting on a limited nuclear attack 2:35:15.379 --> 2:35:19.199 and then making one happen. Returning to our hypothetical border 2:35:19.240 --> 2:35:23.220 conflict between India and Pakistan, let's imagine another outbreak of 2:35:23.320 --> 2:35:27.380 actual shooting like May of 2025. Imagine whichever of those 2:35:27.440 --> 2:35:31.240 hypothetical non-state groups you like to pick floods the region 2:35:31.340 --> 2:35:35.510 with reports of Indian nuclear forces mobilizing or even weapons inbound. 2:35:36.070 --> 2:35:39.730 This would occur alongside the already nightmarish disruption of communication 2:35:39.790 --> 2:35:42.250 and command and control that will occur during such times 2:35:42.290 --> 2:35:45.940 of conflict. Is it so crazy to imagine that one 2:35:45.980 --> 2:35:50.140 of those Pakistani ships chooses to fire its payload? There's 2:35:50.180 --> 2:35:52.980 a very good reason why most nuclear-armed nations do not 2:35:53.080 --> 2:35:55.640 give military leaders direct control over how and when to 2:35:55.680 --> 2:35:59.000 fire these weapons. We don't know how Pakistan governs the 2:35:59.140 --> 2:36:01.780 use of their naval nukes, not really, and that means 2:36:01.820 --> 2:36:05.420 we cannot discount such a possibility. The kind of decisions 2:36:05.520 --> 2:36:07.610 made in nuclear war planning tend to come with a 2:36:07.670 --> 2:36:10.630 timer of less than a half hour. New weapon systems 2:36:10.670 --> 2:36:14.000 like hypersonic missiles have shortened that even further. This means 2:36:14.070 --> 2:36:16.970 any decision about when to deploy nuclear weapons is likely 2:36:17.010 --> 2:36:19.390 going to be made on a very short time frame 2:36:19.430 --> 2:36:23.610 by frightened people. Another equally terrifying vision of that scenario 2:36:23.650 --> 2:36:26.690 could lead China, Pakistan, and India to each conclude, based 2:36:26.750 --> 2:36:29.510 on a mix of real movements by neighboring forces and 2:36:29.550 --> 2:36:33.030 a flood of AI disinformation, to activate and position their 2:36:33.070 --> 2:36:39.580 nuclear arsenals just in case. Once you have nuclear weapons assembled, deployed, 2:36:39.740 --> 2:36:43.629 and aimed properly, the odds rise exponentially that something might 2:36:43.690 --> 2:36:46.350 go wrong, even if no one chooses to fire them. 2:36:46.930 --> 2:36:50.470 And the same sort of concerted digital disinformation attack, executed 2:36:50.510 --> 2:36:53.730 by a state or non-state actor, could happen today, during 2:36:53.850 --> 2:36:58.300 literally any tense international situation with a potential for nuclear escalation. 2:36:59.140 --> 2:37:01.440 As I said, my interest here is not in an 2:37:01.520 --> 2:37:05.480 apocalypse narrative, but in the possibility of a limited nuclear fuck-up. 2:37:06.459 --> 2:37:09.660 Let me propose another that might occur in this situation. 2:37:10.280 --> 2:37:12.720 In the U.S., all nuclear weapons are built to be 2:37:12.760 --> 2:37:16.060 what's called one-point safe. This means the weapon has a 2:37:16.160 --> 2:37:18.660 probability of less than one in a million of causing 2:37:18.720 --> 2:37:23.110 a nuclear detonation if the weapon explodes unintentionally. We have 2:37:23.150 --> 2:37:26.530 had nuclear weapons destroyed in plane crashes, and so far 2:37:26.570 --> 2:37:29.949 they have never detonated in a proper nuclear explosion on accident. 2:37:30.060 --> 2:37:34.740 Because they're one point safe Other nations do not necessarily 2:37:34.840 --> 2:37:37.830 abide by the same safety rules in their nuclear weapons 2:37:38.200 --> 2:37:41.210 And we simply do not know if Pakistan's nukes are 2:37:41.250 --> 2:37:44.590 safe in the same way Imagine then, as the border 2:37:44.629 --> 2:37:48.250 conflict heats up Pakistan's military assembles their arsenal and begins 2:37:48.330 --> 2:37:52.070 flying it in theater A plane crashes or gets shot down, 2:37:52.410 --> 2:37:56.050 and the weapon inside detonates in a proper nuclear fireball. 2:37:57.010 --> 2:38:01.190 Every one of my nuclear fuck-up scenarios relies on terrible decision-making. 2:38:01.670 --> 2:38:04.830 Clear-thinking civilian and military leaders do not take the kind 2:38:04.870 --> 2:38:08.530 of risks that would lead to a nuclear January 6th. Alas, 2:38:08.870 --> 2:38:11.750 clear-thinking civilian and military leaders are thin on the ground 2:38:11.800 --> 2:38:15.390 these days, especially where I live. As I noted earlier, 2:38:15.590 --> 2:38:18.390 the decision makers in any of these situations, regardless of 2:38:18.430 --> 2:38:21.480 national identity, might have only minutes to make their decisions. 2:38:21.879 --> 2:38:25.120 They'll be frightened and probably sleep-deprived. And what do frightened, 2:38:25.160 --> 2:38:27.720 sleep-deprived people turn to these days when they need to 2:38:27.760 --> 2:38:28.340 get work done? 2:38:28.900 --> 2:38:30.400 That's right, AI. 2:38:31.280 --> 2:38:33.920 In a CNN article from earlier this year, Katie Lillis 2:38:33.980 --> 2:38:36.820 and Zachary Cohen write, Across the US military and the 2:38:36.860 --> 2:38:39.810 intelligence community, officials are pushing to weave AI into nearly 2:38:39.840 --> 2:38:42.410 every facet of their work, from analyzing the huge volumes 2:38:42.450 --> 2:38:45.470 of raw intelligence the US collects and selecting targets for strikes, 2:38:45.890 --> 2:38:49.550 to more mundane applications like managing budgeting, logistics, and supply chains. 2:38:50.170 --> 2:38:53.580 Just a few months ago, back in the spring of 2026, 2:38:53.580 --> 2:38:56.520 one member of the intel community, an analyst, asked one 2:38:56.540 --> 2:38:59.619 of these chatbots to analyze intelligence around a Chinese vessel 2:38:59.740 --> 2:39:02.289 sailing to the Middle East. The bot was likely an 2:39:02.350 --> 2:39:05.390 internal tool, but as one senior U.S. official told CNN, 2:39:05.709 --> 2:39:08.170 the internal tools are mostly just copies of the commercial 2:39:08.209 --> 2:39:11.890 stuff wearing lipstick. Said bot did what bots do best. 2:39:12.150 --> 2:39:14.360 It mixed a bunch of different sources together to create 2:39:14.379 --> 2:39:17.200 a product for its user. This analysis, based on a 2:39:17.220 --> 2:39:20.560 mix of OSINT and secret intel, concluded that the Chinese 2:39:20.600 --> 2:39:23.560 ship was carrying components used in the production of nuclear weaponry. 2:39:24.120 --> 2:39:26.859 The analyst asked his AI tool to take its finding 2:39:26.920 --> 2:39:29.360 and produce an intelligence report, which was sent up the 2:39:29.390 --> 2:39:32.180 chain of command. Since the vessel was headed in the 2:39:32.280 --> 2:39:35.810 general direction of Iran, and since China does sell conventional 2:39:35.850 --> 2:39:39.570 weapons to Iran, this sparked a panic. Heard that CNN article? 2:39:39.990 --> 2:39:40.290 The U.S. 2:39:40.310 --> 2:39:43.230 Military swung into action with plans to intercept the vessel, 2:39:43.290 --> 2:39:45.010 according to four sources familiar. 2:39:44.750 --> 2:39:45.430 With the episode. 2:39:45.730 --> 2:39:48.070 According to two of the sources, armed members of the U.S. 2:39:48.110 --> 2:39:51.470 military were preparing to board the ship. Military planes were 2:39:51.570 --> 2:39:53.709 in the air, one of these sources and another source 2:39:53.730 --> 2:39:56.590 familiar with the incident said. There was only one issue. 2:39:57.110 --> 2:40:00.690 The AI chatbot that Analyst used had hallucinated. Every piece 2:40:00.730 --> 2:40:03.530 of that report was wrong. China was not sending nuclear 2:40:03.570 --> 2:40:06.250 weapons equipment to Iran or anywhere else because of fucking 2:40:06.330 --> 2:40:09.920 course they weren't. But we came calamitously close to attacking 2:40:09.980 --> 2:40:13.280 a Chinese ship with military force due to that hallucination. 2:40:14.140 --> 2:40:17.140 In January, Pete Hegseth gave a speech outlining our Department 2:40:17.160 --> 2:40:21.960 of Defense's new AI strategy. He insisted, we will unleash experimentation, 2:40:22.040 --> 2:40:25.860 eliminate bureaucratic barriers, focus our investments, and demonstrate the execution 2:40:25.879 --> 2:40:29.350 approach needed to ensure we lead in military AI. All 2:40:29.370 --> 2:40:31.610 that says to me is that these tools will only 2:40:31.650 --> 2:40:34.720 become more critical to the production of intelligence products than 2:40:34.750 --> 2:40:37.609 ever before, and we know they'll continue to hallucinate too. 2:40:38.480 --> 2:40:40.840 This change isn't just happening in the United States. It's 2:40:40.879 --> 2:40:43.780 occurring in governments and militaries all across the world, and 2:40:43.800 --> 2:40:46.300 it's happening at the same time as some nuclear-armed nations 2:40:46.340 --> 2:40:50.720 seek to expand their low-yield stockpiles. Simultaneously, the U.S. war 2:40:50.760 --> 2:40:53.000 against Iran and the ongoing war in Ukraine have made 2:40:53.020 --> 2:40:55.460 it clear to every nation-state actor that the only real 2:40:55.520 --> 2:40:59.790 guarantee of national sovereignty is a nuclear arsenal. More nations 2:40:59.830 --> 2:41:02.170 will work to acquire nukes in the near future. This 2:41:02.209 --> 2:41:04.750 means more nuclear weapons and more conflicts where they might 2:41:04.790 --> 2:41:08.170 get used, alongside an even wider proliferation of tools like 2:41:08.200 --> 2:41:09.480 the ones I just described. 2:41:10.400 --> 2:41:11.580 I'm not trying to be. 2:41:11.540 --> 2:41:14.160 Apocalyptic here, because again, that's. 2:41:13.720 --> 2:41:15.360 Not really the immediate worry. 2:41:15.720 --> 2:41:18.120 The worry is that a mix of increasing acceptance that 2:41:18.140 --> 2:41:21.920 it's okay to use small nukes, and increasing reliance on 2:41:21.940 --> 2:41:25.730 these AI tools, alongside the conflicts that we have always 2:41:25.790 --> 2:41:29.030 had between nations, will lead to a situation in which 2:41:29.070 --> 2:41:32.390 a very limited nuclear fuck-up not only is disastrous to 2:41:32.410 --> 2:41:35.379 people on the ground or wherever it occurs, but changes 2:41:35.450 --> 2:41:37.959 the very nature and all of the decision-making calculus in 2:41:37.980 --> 2:41:40.400 the world that we live in. I hope it doesn't happen, 2:41:40.500 --> 2:41:42.500 but that's what I'm thinking about these days. 2:41:43.879 --> 2:42:00.100 That's everything for today. We'll be back tomorrow. This is 2:42:00.240 --> 2:42:04.129 It Could Happen Here, Executive Disorder, our weekly newscast covering 2:42:04.170 --> 2:42:06.789 what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world, and 2:42:06.830 --> 2:42:09.210 what this means for you. I'm Garrison Davis. Today I'm 2:42:09.250 --> 2:42:15.170 joined by Mia Wong, Robert Evans, and Sophie Lichterman. Not allegedly. Yeah, no, 2:42:15.190 --> 2:42:17.760 that's definitely Sophie, but you can't prove it's me. I 2:42:17.820 --> 2:42:18.900 can prove it's you. 2:42:18.940 --> 2:42:23.260 Sophie, you have no idea where I am, Sophie, or 2:42:23.320 --> 2:42:23.940 what I'm doing. 2:42:24.080 --> 2:42:28.240 I know exactly where you are, and I know exactly. 2:42:27.430 --> 2:42:29.730 What you're doing. This is the first episode where we're 2:42:29.750 --> 2:42:31.210 testing AI Robert. 2:42:31.950 --> 2:42:32.590 Oh, no. 2:42:32.610 --> 2:42:36.690 We're not testing, there's no AI Robert. Don't yell at me, 2:42:36.709 --> 2:42:37.670 I'm Blue Sky. 2:42:38.660 --> 2:42:43.619 It'd be shit. You'll know there's no AI Robert because 2:42:43.640 --> 2:42:45.810 they would have trained an AI Robert on like the 2:42:46.070 --> 2:42:48.070 subreddit and all of the different jokes that I can 2:42:48.129 --> 2:42:50.910 no longer do because people have taken it too seriously. 2:42:51.209 --> 2:42:53.650 Like if I start talking about a child hunting island, 2:42:54.030 --> 2:42:56.030 like you'll know it's the AI me. 2:42:56.190 --> 2:42:58.830 It'll pull like a bagel throwing reference from like nine 2:42:58.870 --> 2:42:59.370 years ago. 2:42:59.390 --> 2:43:03.250 Yeah, all of a sudden you start talking about Doritos 2:43:03.320 --> 2:43:04.740 like you did 10 years ago. 2:43:05.590 --> 2:43:08.110 Yeah, talking about Doritos like 10 years ago or talking 2:43:08.129 --> 2:43:10.110 about the Jamie Loftus murder thing, which I don't do 2:43:10.170 --> 2:43:12.630 anymore because now there's a real serial killer in the 2:43:12.770 --> 2:43:14.750 area that people were making comments about. 2:43:15.190 --> 2:43:16.550 And being like, what is it, Jamie? I'm like, guys, 2:43:16.590 --> 2:43:19.350 there's really people dead. We don't keep the bit up 2:43:19.450 --> 2:43:20.730 at this point. All right. 2:43:21.050 --> 2:43:21.470 Here. 2:43:22.110 --> 2:43:25.510 This episode, we're covering the week of October 7th to 2:43:25.590 --> 2:43:30.030 October 14th. And we're actually going to jump straight to 2:43:30.090 --> 2:43:35.690 our first main story. Last Thursday afternoon, October 8th, ICE 2:43:35.870 --> 2:43:39.570 shot a 28-year-old man named Oscar Belgal in the New 2:43:39.590 --> 2:43:43.400 York City neighborhood of Marble Hill, which is physically located 2:43:43.459 --> 2:43:46.040 in the Bronx, but technically in the borough of Manhattan. 2:43:47.080 --> 2:43:51.160 Oscar was in a car with his five-year-old son. Per 2:43:51.600 --> 2:43:55.580 video released by the NYPD, around 4 p.m., just in 2:43:55.600 --> 2:43:59.410 the middle of the day, masked plainclothes agents, some wearing 2:43:59.550 --> 2:44:02.650 yellow construction vests, ran up to a parked car with 2:44:02.730 --> 2:44:07.850 guns already drawn. The driver, Oscar, started backing away, and 2:44:07.870 --> 2:44:10.369 then an agent began hitting the car windows with the 2:44:10.390 --> 2:44:13.550 butt of his gun. Oscar then pulls into the street 2:44:13.670 --> 2:44:17.920 and drives off screen, as agents point their guns at 2:44:18.030 --> 2:44:22.600 the windshield. The actual shooting itself is not captured on 2:44:22.780 --> 2:44:26.180 this video, but I'll play it here for us to reference. 2:44:26.720 --> 2:44:28.800 This is security camera footage. 2:44:29.660 --> 2:44:33.020 Yeah, one of the things that was, like, noticeably unsettling 2:44:33.280 --> 2:44:36.020 besides all of it was the fact that, like, these 2:44:36.060 --> 2:44:39.320 guys were dressed like crossing guards. 2:44:40.400 --> 2:44:42.060 Construction workers, crossing guards. 2:44:42.080 --> 2:44:44.480 They had, like, on normal clothes and then. 2:44:44.390 --> 2:44:44.930 Just, like, a. 2:44:45.390 --> 2:44:46.310 High-vis vest. 2:44:46.370 --> 2:44:51.539 Yeah, which, you know, somebody in a high-vis vest and a... 2:44:52.430 --> 2:44:55.250 Machine gun comes towards me. That's scary. 2:44:55.550 --> 2:44:57.349 They look like, like, especially the guy with the long gun. 2:44:57.390 --> 2:44:59.020 He looks like a mass shooter. They look like. 2:44:58.930 --> 2:45:02.160 Fucking mass shooters. Like, I would not assume those were 2:45:02.220 --> 2:45:04.939 police officers. And I might take steps to defend myself 2:45:05.020 --> 2:45:08.320 in that situation because they just look like fucking mass shooters. 2:45:08.420 --> 2:45:08.840 Correct. 2:45:09.180 --> 2:45:12.400 Mayor Zora Mamdani said, quote, There was no reasonable way 2:45:12.459 --> 2:45:16.039 to identify them as ICE agents. School had just gotten out. 2:45:16.780 --> 2:45:19.330 The street was crowded with families and children. 2:45:19.620 --> 2:45:20.020 Unquote. 2:45:21.810 --> 2:45:25.390 According to the NYPD, at least one agent fired seven shots. 2:45:25.930 --> 2:45:29.080 We do not have footage of the actual shooting. As 2:45:29.140 --> 2:45:32.540 I said, Oscar's five-year-old son was in the backseat of 2:45:32.600 --> 2:45:37.459 the car. Thank God he is physically unharmed. But, of course, 2:45:37.500 --> 2:45:40.980 he still had to watch masked men with guns run up, 2:45:41.459 --> 2:45:45.120 shoot his dad in the neck, and drag his body away. 2:45:45.400 --> 2:45:50.289 Jesus Christ. DHS Secretary Mullen said that agents were not 2:45:50.379 --> 2:45:53.240 aware a kid was in the car. Uh-huh, because they 2:45:53.260 --> 2:45:55.160 didn't care. Air check. 2:45:55.959 --> 2:45:58.020 Shoot first, ask questions later. 2:45:58.040 --> 2:46:01.940 The child's mother told Governor Hochul that her son is 2:46:02.000 --> 2:46:06.680 traumatized and won't talk. Quote, the child is not speaking. 2:46:07.310 --> 2:46:08.170 That's terrible. 2:46:08.330 --> 2:46:09.189 Yeah, I mean. 2:46:09.600 --> 2:46:10.760 Sure, of course. 2:46:11.180 --> 2:46:11.550 Jesus. 2:46:11.570 --> 2:46:12.910 That's horrible, you guys. 2:46:13.190 --> 2:46:15.189 I mean, I can't really think of anything worse that 2:46:15.209 --> 2:46:18.410 could happen to a child than to watch their parent 2:46:18.550 --> 2:46:20.830 shot in the neck at random when, like, in a 2:46:21.190 --> 2:46:23.349 normally safe situation like that. 2:46:23.879 --> 2:46:28.960 Jesus Christ. ICE has still not released body cam footage 2:46:29.100 --> 2:46:32.660 of the shooting. DHS has said that they were conducting a, quote, 2:46:32.820 --> 2:46:37.650 targeted enforcement operation and that Oscar, quote, weaponized his vehicle. 2:46:38.560 --> 2:46:40.760 This is the thing they always say when something like 2:46:40.780 --> 2:46:41.280 this happens. 2:46:41.640 --> 2:46:43.340 Spoiler plate ass statement. 2:46:44.080 --> 2:46:48.370 DHS also claimed that after Ice shot and arrested Oscar, agents, quote, 2:46:48.770 --> 2:46:51.410 rendered first aid and then took him to the hospital. 2:46:52.570 --> 2:46:55.789 This is a lie. This did not happen. This is 2:46:56.050 --> 2:47:00.890 a plain-faced lie from DHS. Body camera footage released by 2:47:01.070 --> 2:47:04.110 NYPD from when they first got to the scene, when 2:47:04.140 --> 2:47:07.260 the cops got to the scene, Show Oscar just sitting 2:47:07.300 --> 2:47:10.380 in the street, bleeding out, with his hands handcuffed behind 2:47:10.420 --> 2:47:13.100 his back, surrounded by ICE agents who are just standing 2:47:13.150 --> 2:47:15.310 in a circle around him, offering no assistance. 2:47:15.750 --> 2:47:17.410 Yeah, and they do this all the fucking time when 2:47:17.430 --> 2:47:17.949 they shoot someone. 2:47:17.950 --> 2:47:20.200 Because they just, like, stand there and handcuff them. The 2:47:20.300 --> 2:47:24.360 NYPD rushes over in this footage, picks up and carries Oscar, 2:47:24.760 --> 2:47:28.360 who now appears to be going unconscious. They take Oscar 2:47:28.459 --> 2:47:30.640 into a squad car, they render aid, put pressure on 2:47:30.660 --> 2:47:33.080 the wound, and drive him to the hospital down the street. 2:47:33.379 --> 2:47:35.020 Do you know how hard it is to have less 2:47:35.060 --> 2:47:37.440 concern for human life than the New York Police Department? 2:47:38.280 --> 2:47:42.580 My God, that's astonishing. That's that's that takes some work. 2:47:42.840 --> 2:47:47.520 Jesus Christ. We're reaching average Los Angeles sheriff's deputy levels 2:47:47.580 --> 2:47:48.270 of empathy here. 2:47:48.510 --> 2:47:49.430 Like it's shocking. 2:47:49.870 --> 2:47:51.890 It's like it's like the CPD detectives they brought in 2:47:51.930 --> 2:47:53.770 to do torture after 9-11. 2:47:54.190 --> 2:47:59.470 Like that kind of shit. We don't really know what 2:47:59.490 --> 2:48:01.450 would have happened if NYPD did not get to the 2:48:01.490 --> 2:48:05.220 scene as quick as they did. In the body camera 2:48:05.240 --> 2:48:10.119 footage of them carrying Oscar, his body is fully limp. 2:48:10.440 --> 2:48:11.100 He's out of it. 2:48:11.180 --> 2:48:13.170 He looks like he's been shot in the neck. 2:48:13.790 --> 2:48:18.010 NYPD had no involvement in the federal operation prior to 2:48:18.050 --> 2:48:19.490 this point, prior to the shooting. 2:48:19.510 --> 2:48:21.990 Quite frankly, this kind of shit isn't what they do. 2:48:22.050 --> 2:48:23.890 They do other bad things, but they don't just like, 2:48:24.870 --> 2:48:28.570 shoot and like charge people's cars with guns when they're 2:48:28.610 --> 2:48:30.570 like driving away from school with it. Like that's just 2:48:30.709 --> 2:48:33.430 that that's this is so much of an escalation of 2:48:33.450 --> 2:48:35.950 like our normal police bullshit is what I'm saying. 2:48:37.370 --> 2:48:40.690 DHS has tried to justify their targeting of Oscar, calling 2:48:40.720 --> 2:48:44.000 him a, quote, criminal illegal alien from the Dominican Republic. 2:48:44.530 --> 2:48:44.900 Great. 2:48:45.240 --> 2:48:48.800 And pointed to prior arrests and a criminal conviction for 2:48:48.920 --> 2:48:54.800 grand larceny and claim Oscar's, quote, associated crimes. With a gang. 2:48:55.280 --> 2:48:58.760 That's the word they keep using. Associated or association. They 2:48:58.800 --> 2:49:01.840 won't even say he's like a member. They'll say he's 2:49:01.890 --> 2:49:03.110 associated with a gang. 2:49:03.790 --> 2:49:04.090 Yeah. 2:49:04.990 --> 2:49:07.530 I'll play a short clip here from the mayor's press 2:49:07.570 --> 2:49:11.450 conference later that evening, just down the street from this 2:49:11.470 --> 2:49:12.170 side of the shooting. 2:49:12.930 --> 2:49:17.580 There is no explanation for federal officers firing this many 2:49:17.640 --> 2:49:21.039 rounds into a car that has a five-year-old in the car. 2:49:21.780 --> 2:49:25.830 there is no explanation we are standing here so close 2:49:25.890 --> 2:49:28.930 to the site of where this actually took place and 2:49:29.010 --> 2:49:31.240 look at how many people live right here this is 2:49:31.300 --> 2:49:34.140 a residential neighborhood we are right here by a subway 2:49:34.720 --> 2:49:37.940 And the pretext of ICE is, in their words, to 2:49:38.020 --> 2:49:41.540 keep this country safe. How is it keeping anyone safe 2:49:42.080 --> 2:49:44.260 to have, as you just heard from the police commissioner, 2:49:44.720 --> 2:49:49.060 individuals wearing construction vests and masks with long guns? 2:49:49.420 --> 2:49:53.230 Residents have no idea if these are law enforcement agents 2:49:53.580 --> 2:49:56.280 or if they are simply attacking someone on the street. 2:49:56.580 --> 2:49:58.410 And when it comes to ICE, it begs the question, 2:49:58.790 --> 2:50:01.430 what's the difference? There is no explanation for this. 2:50:02.379 --> 2:50:07.940 After the shooting, soon-to-be DSA Congresswoman Daria-Liza Avila-Chavier quickly went 2:50:07.980 --> 2:50:10.140 up to the Bronx and saw that federal agents were 2:50:10.180 --> 2:50:14.360 going door-to-door, quote-unquote, collecting evidence and trying to question residents 2:50:14.379 --> 2:50:17.800 about the shooting, writing down people's names and numbers. So 2:50:18.020 --> 2:50:22.600 Daria-Liza followed behind these HSI agents, informing residents that they 2:50:22.640 --> 2:50:25.840 did not need to speak to or answer questions from 2:50:26.220 --> 2:50:32.129 these federal agents. Meanwhile, soon-to-be former congressman Adriano Espaillat And 2:50:32.150 --> 2:50:36.250 Oscar's own family weren't allowed to see Oscar at the hospital. 2:50:36.270 --> 2:50:37.590 Jesus. 2:50:38.110 --> 2:50:40.430 Now, outside the hospital where Oscar is being treated, a 2:50:40.470 --> 2:50:43.310 few hundred New Yorkers gathered to protest ICE and the 2:50:43.350 --> 2:50:46.270 shooting of one of their neighbors. Earlier in the evening, 2:50:46.560 --> 2:50:51.880 ICE vehicles were driving through protesters. But pretty quickly, NYPD 2:50:52.140 --> 2:50:54.620 arrived to do crowd control and clear the street for 2:50:54.660 --> 2:50:57.800 vehicles to enter and exit the hospital. This led to 2:50:58.020 --> 2:51:01.700 violent shoving matches over metal fence barricades that NYPD was 2:51:01.720 --> 2:51:05.440 trying to set up around the street. Daria Liza moved 2:51:05.459 --> 2:51:08.580 to this protest, and she was trying to de-escalate conflict. 2:51:09.320 --> 2:51:12.520 But NYPD got very aggressive, and Daria Liza was shoved 2:51:12.540 --> 2:51:15.859 to the ground by a community affairs officer. The NYPD 2:51:15.910 --> 2:51:19.970 blue shirts. The ones that are, you know, supposed to 2:51:20.470 --> 2:51:22.250 de-escalate conflict at protests. 2:51:22.330 --> 2:51:27.070 Yeah, average example of community affairs is shoving a congressperson. 2:51:26.430 --> 2:51:31.000 To the ground. I arrived at the hospital just after 2:51:31.060 --> 2:51:35.850 this first big clash over police barricades, during which NYPD 2:51:35.870 --> 2:51:40.330 arrested five protesters. After that, things seemed to settle down 2:51:40.470 --> 2:51:44.430 for a little bit. The crowd got smaller. And about 2:51:44.530 --> 2:51:47.250 like a little over an hour later, just before 11 p.m., 2:51:47.910 --> 2:51:51.230 police rapidly cleared the street again, pushing protesters onto the 2:51:51.270 --> 2:51:55.330 sidewalk as a small caravan of feds departed the hospital 2:51:55.480 --> 2:51:59.020 at dangerously high speeds. They were zooming by. 2:51:59.040 --> 2:52:12.310 Ice just pulled away. 2:52:12.330 --> 2:52:19.070 The crowd chased him a little bit. It's 10.40 p.m. 2:52:20.350 --> 2:52:24.650 We've got a group of NYPD now leaving the area 2:52:24.950 --> 2:52:28.150 and the crowd is falling behind, yelling. 2:52:27.970 --> 2:52:31.530 At them as well. Again, NYPD is putting off into 2:52:32.760 --> 2:52:38.300 two directions. Oscar was in one of these vehicles leaving 2:52:38.340 --> 2:52:41.180 the hospital. After the feds left the hospital, the crowd 2:52:41.260 --> 2:52:45.179 continued to dwindle to about 40 people who then marched forward. 2:52:45.570 --> 2:52:48.270 up over the bridge to protest in front of Zoran's 2:52:48.470 --> 2:52:52.470 press conference. At the press conference, Zoran said that for 2:52:52.510 --> 2:52:54.400 the past two hours, he had been on the phone 2:52:54.590 --> 2:52:59.099 negotiating with President Trump and Secretary Mullen for Oscar's release, 2:52:59.720 --> 2:53:03.900 but that those negotiations were unsuccessful. I think it is 2:53:03.940 --> 2:53:06.820 worth noting here that earlier this year, Trump did release 2:53:06.860 --> 2:53:10.959 someone from ICE custody following a request by Mayor Mamdani. 2:53:11.840 --> 2:53:15.510 With the cries of protesters heard in the background, The 2:53:15.530 --> 2:53:18.850 mayor reiterated calls for ICE to be abolished, saying, quote, 2:53:19.430 --> 2:53:23.080 ICE is rotten to its core, operates with impunity, sows 2:53:23.120 --> 2:53:27.060 chaos and terror across our country, and they have killed 2:53:27.160 --> 2:53:29.539 far more of our neighbors than they could have ever 2:53:29.820 --> 2:53:30.760 claimed to save. 2:53:31.600 --> 2:53:33.670 I stand here not just as the mayor of our city, 2:53:34.110 --> 2:53:35.890 but as someone who is proud to be an immigrant 2:53:35.930 --> 2:53:38.850 in our city. And I know that these kinds of raids, 2:53:38.890 --> 2:53:42.590 this kind of terrorizing of this city, leaves the three 2:53:42.629 --> 2:53:45.410 million immigrants of this city asking if they are safe here, 2:53:45.810 --> 2:53:48.270 if they belong here, if this too can be their 2:53:48.310 --> 2:53:53.030 home here. We will not normalize ICE's viciousness. We will 2:53:53.070 --> 2:53:57.520 not accept its cruelty. We know, and I have said 2:53:57.560 --> 2:54:00.859 this directly, whether to the president or to the public, 2:54:01.720 --> 2:54:03.720 ICE undermines public safety. 2:54:04.560 --> 2:54:06.199 It makes us less safe. 2:54:07.200 --> 2:54:10.400 New York City will not stand by while ICE agents 2:54:10.459 --> 2:54:13.880 shoot New Yorkers. And we will not back down from 2:54:13.920 --> 2:54:16.900 the demand that so many, including myself, have put forward 2:54:17.240 --> 2:54:21.080 time and again. This is an agency that must be abolished. 2:54:21.920 --> 2:54:25.859 Commissioner Jessica Tisch then gave some more details about the shooting, 2:54:25.879 --> 2:54:29.420 some of which I've already echoed, but also read off 2:54:29.520 --> 2:54:34.400 Oscar's NYPD rap sheet. Average Commissioner Tisch move. Including two 2:54:34.500 --> 2:54:38.279 prior arrests. one for robbery, which he pleaded guilty to 2:54:38.920 --> 2:54:43.140 and received probation, and another for drug possession. When Zoran 2:54:43.160 --> 2:54:46.700 got the microphone back, he again undermined ICE's legitimacy and 2:54:46.750 --> 2:54:49.390 said that while negotiating with the president and Secretary Mullen, 2:54:49.730 --> 2:54:52.510 he requested ICE agents leave the scene entirely and demanded 2:54:52.570 --> 2:54:56.330 that ICE stop its enforcement actions in the city. 2:54:56.650 --> 2:54:59.710 There is no justification for what we have seen today 2:54:59.810 --> 2:55:02.580 and we know. That what we have seen today is 2:55:02.620 --> 2:55:05.780 but a microcosm of what ICE does on a daily 2:55:05.860 --> 2:55:09.290 basis across this country. How can that be how we 2:55:09.330 --> 2:55:10.369 describe public safety? 2:55:10.650 --> 2:55:11.289 It can't be. 2:55:11.530 --> 2:55:13.710 And I've shared that with the president. I've shared that 2:55:13.730 --> 2:55:18.080 with the secretary. This city wants ICE out. We want 2:55:18.200 --> 2:55:20.600 ICE out of our city, ICE out of our schools, 2:55:20.760 --> 2:55:22.759 ICE out of our hospitals, ICE out of our streets, 2:55:23.160 --> 2:55:25.930 ICE away from our kids. We want that because we 2:55:25.990 --> 2:55:28.510 want to keep the city safe. We do not need 2:55:28.550 --> 2:55:31.330 them to do so. All they do is terrorize the city. 2:55:32.310 --> 2:55:36.150 Now, the people chanting outside the press conference weren't just 2:55:36.270 --> 2:55:41.360 protesting ICE, but also the NYPD and Zoran himself, with 2:55:41.420 --> 2:55:46.480 chants of, quote, Mamdani is complicit. most of the ire 2:55:46.520 --> 2:55:50.940 directed at Mayor Mamdani was due to NYPD facilitating ICE's 2:55:51.120 --> 2:55:54.710 exit by clearing protesters in front of the hospital off 2:55:54.730 --> 2:55:58.970 the street before the agents sped off. After leaving the hospital, 2:55:59.010 --> 2:56:02.290 DHS moved Oscar to New Jersey and then back to 2:56:02.350 --> 2:56:05.289 New York, where he's currently in federal custody at the 2:56:05.330 --> 2:56:11.370 Metropolitan Detention Center. On Monday, Oscar's lawyers released a statement, quote, Mr. 2:56:11.410 --> 2:56:16.010 Belgal is living through an unimaginable nightmare. While he is 2:56:16.080 --> 2:56:20.940 currently in solitary confinement, a bullet remains lodged in his neck. 2:56:21.640 --> 2:56:24.200 The left side of his face is numb and he 2:56:24.240 --> 2:56:27.879 can barely hear out of his left ear. Doctors have 2:56:27.940 --> 2:56:32.600 told him he urgently needs surgery, unquote. Awful. A federal 2:56:32.640 --> 2:56:36.920 judge has also temporarily blocked Oscar's deportation. The day after 2:56:36.940 --> 2:56:40.560 the shooting, Daria Liza called for NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch 2:56:40.620 --> 2:56:44.200 to step down in a statement, quote, Last night, the 2:56:44.300 --> 2:56:48.160 NYPD and Commissioner Tisch violated the spirit, if not the letter, 2:56:48.660 --> 2:56:52.519 of our sanctuary city policies and fueled the Trump administration's 2:56:52.640 --> 2:56:56.900 attempts to demonize our communities. The NYPD's Strategic Response Group, 2:56:56.980 --> 2:57:00.590 or the SRG, must be disbanded as quickly as possible, 2:57:01.209 --> 2:57:04.890 and Commissioner Tisch must step down. New York City DSA 2:57:05.050 --> 2:57:07.470 also released a statement, of which I'll quote a small 2:57:07.510 --> 2:57:10.550 portion of. ICE's devastating shooting of a New Yorker in 2:57:10.610 --> 2:57:14.410 front of his child cannot stand. Neither can the NYPD's 2:57:14.470 --> 2:57:17.000 attack on New Yorkers who stood up for their neighbors. 2:57:17.560 --> 2:57:20.250 ICE is a terrorist agency that must be expelled from 2:57:20.270 --> 2:57:23.660 New York City and abolished. Jessica Tisch must get ICE 2:57:23.720 --> 2:57:27.580 out of New York and end NYPD complicity with these terrorists. 2:57:28.320 --> 2:57:30.540 If the commissioner can't put a stop to these injustices, 2:57:30.920 --> 2:57:36.730 she must be fired. Unquote. Now, initial reports claim that SRG, 2:57:36.760 --> 2:57:40.390 the strategic response group, was deployed to handle this protest 2:57:40.610 --> 2:57:43.990 at the hospital. And this is notable because Zoran ran 2:57:44.050 --> 2:57:48.470 on disbanding the SRG. And right now, any SRG deployment 2:57:48.550 --> 2:57:52.050 must get approval from City Hall, according to reporting from Politico. 2:57:52.680 --> 2:57:56.320 So the idea that Mamdani personally sent the SRG to 2:57:56.360 --> 2:58:00.080 crack skulls of anti-ice protesters fueled a lot of the 2:58:00.270 --> 2:58:04.530 anger coming from protesters that night. The SRG, or the 2:58:04.570 --> 2:58:08.330 Strategic Response Group, is a specialized unit within the NYPD, 2:58:09.030 --> 2:58:14.850 which focuses on counterterrorism, but also policing protests. They're sort 2:58:14.870 --> 2:58:18.300 of the city's de facto riot cops. The unit has 2:58:18.340 --> 2:58:23.810 been long criticized for violently suppressing political protest. The SRG 2:58:23.850 --> 2:58:28.710 did not respond to that protest, though. Instead, NYPD sent 2:58:28.810 --> 2:58:34.190 officers from community affairs, as mentioned, and the transit bureau's, quote, 2:58:34.410 --> 2:58:39.770 anti-terrorism unit, which doesn't need City Hall's direct sign-off. So 2:58:39.820 --> 2:58:43.500 while Zoran did not personally send the SRG to crack 2:58:43.540 --> 2:58:48.800 down on this protest, the violence from NYPD demonstrates that 2:58:49.360 --> 2:58:53.840 this issue is bigger than just one specific unit. But 2:58:54.420 --> 2:58:57.480 there is this larger question of like crowd control at 2:58:57.500 --> 2:59:01.260 these protests. And I think this question demonstrates the diverging 2:59:01.320 --> 2:59:05.490 interests on the part of protesters and city hall. Some 2:59:05.750 --> 2:59:10.310 protesters want no NYPD crowd control. People want to directly 2:59:10.410 --> 2:59:12.650 fight ICE and they're willing to put their body on 2:59:12.670 --> 2:59:15.330 the line. Yeah. Even if that means they might get hurt. 2:59:15.910 --> 2:59:18.440 As we've seen in other cities, physical confrontations against ICE 2:59:19.060 --> 2:59:21.760 could result in DHS sending more troops to New York 2:59:21.780 --> 2:59:26.070 and possibly triggering a political crisis, which some on the 2:59:26.090 --> 2:59:28.400 left also desire. There is a sort of like accelerationist 2:59:28.440 --> 2:59:30.340 bent towards some of these protests. They kind of want 2:59:30.360 --> 2:59:33.060 this political crisis and they want to directly fight and 2:59:33.100 --> 2:59:36.660 oppose ICE. On the other hand, for someone in Zoran's position, 2:59:37.100 --> 2:59:39.830 there's a desire to prevent ICE agents from hurting more people, 2:59:39.870 --> 2:59:43.570 whether by running people over or shooting more New Yorkers. 2:59:44.209 --> 2:59:46.170 I think all of these questions definitely exist in the 2:59:46.209 --> 2:59:50.410 shadow of Minneapolis. And furthermore, the mayor wants to limit 2:59:50.440 --> 2:59:53.030 the amount of DHS and ICE agents deployed to the city. 2:59:53.730 --> 2:59:57.070 So to that end, NYPD may end up doing some 2:59:57.090 --> 3:00:00.010 level of crowd control to limit protesters' interactions with ICE 3:00:00.730 --> 3:00:05.720 to avoid provoking a larger deployment. So even if protesters 3:00:05.800 --> 3:00:10.459 and Zoran have similar ultimate goals vis-a-vis ICE, their respective 3:00:10.500 --> 3:00:15.970 positions lead them to contradictory impulses. Zorn has said that 3:00:16.000 --> 3:00:18.550 he will not justify the use of force against protesters 3:00:18.629 --> 3:00:21.810 on Thursday night and told MSNOW he'll be conducting a 3:00:21.810 --> 3:00:25.050 review of the entire 24-hour period, quote, from the ICE 3:00:25.110 --> 3:00:28.070 shooting to the NYPD response to the incident and the 3:00:28.110 --> 3:00:31.869 ensuing protests to ICE's use of a privately owned parking 3:00:31.890 --> 3:00:34.849 lot as a staging location to every tool that we 3:00:34.910 --> 3:00:39.010 have at our disposal to keep New Yorkers safe, unquote. 3:00:39.129 --> 3:00:42.170 And on one of those last parts, AOC has also 3:00:42.209 --> 3:00:45.760 mentioned this, that ICE has been using the rooftop parking 3:00:45.780 --> 3:00:48.720 lot of a Target in the Bronx to stage before 3:00:48.780 --> 3:00:51.920 going out to do arrests. And that's something that electeds 3:00:52.120 --> 3:00:56.180 are looking to crack down on if they can. But 3:00:56.620 --> 3:00:59.500 Zoran has said that there are no plans to replace 3:00:59.600 --> 3:01:03.050 Commissioner Tisch, pointing to her history of uprooting NYPD corruption 3:01:03.100 --> 3:01:07.869 and the later Adams administration and the record low number 3:01:07.890 --> 3:01:12.230 of murders, shootings and shooting victims. But Zoran has reiterated 3:01:12.270 --> 3:01:15.150 multiple times this week his intention to disband the SRG 3:01:15.590 --> 3:01:17.750 and said he will provide an update on that timeline 3:01:17.850 --> 3:01:21.010 in the coming months. Also to the dismay of the 3:01:21.050 --> 3:01:23.980 police union, the mayor announced this week that his administration 3:01:24.000 --> 3:01:27.160 will be conducting the first comprehensive review of NYPD use 3:01:27.200 --> 3:01:30.120 of force policies and practices for the first time in 3:01:30.160 --> 3:01:33.539 a decade and will crack down on officers getting out 3:01:33.600 --> 3:01:37.770 of misconduct proceedings by retiring before disciplinary action can take 3:01:37.810 --> 3:01:40.940 place after this was announced yesterday. There was a very 3:01:41.040 --> 3:01:45.420 angry statement from the police union about this. And because 3:01:45.459 --> 3:01:49.370 New York has already ended qualified immunity, the biggest thing 3:01:49.410 --> 3:01:52.790 City Hall could do to undermine police power is to 3:01:52.830 --> 3:01:56.390 move certain public safety and administrative roles outside of the NYPD, 3:01:56.670 --> 3:01:59.490 which Zorn wants to do with the Department of Community Safety, 3:01:59.550 --> 3:02:03.590 but that has faced budgetary constraints, especially following the discovery 3:02:03.670 --> 3:02:07.730 of the $ 12 billion deficit left over by Mayor Adams. Now, 3:02:07.730 --> 3:02:11.110 10 months into his administration, Zoran has not been eager 3:02:11.370 --> 3:02:14.990 to spend political capital taking on the NYPD. Where he 3:02:15.030 --> 3:02:18.140 has been spending political capital, it's mostly been to strengthen labor, 3:02:18.820 --> 3:02:21.820 investing in the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, creating 3:02:21.840 --> 3:02:24.700 and enforcing a new click-to-cancel rule to crack down on 3:02:25.000 --> 3:02:29.960 impossible-to-end subscriptions, winning hundreds of millions of dollars for delivery workers, 3:02:30.379 --> 3:02:33.600 fighting to pass the Delivery Protection Act to strengthen Amazon workers' 3:02:34.080 --> 3:02:37.560 right to unionize, and partnering with labor unions to modernize 3:02:37.580 --> 3:02:39.980 the process of applying for city jobs and launching the 3:02:40.000 --> 3:02:43.480 mayor's office of worker power. And this is in addition 3:02:43.520 --> 3:02:46.760 to universal child care and the rent freeze, which just 3:02:46.800 --> 3:02:51.260 went into effect earlier this month. But after attending protests 3:02:51.379 --> 3:02:54.510 this week, my general sense is that when it comes 3:02:54.550 --> 3:02:59.410 to NYPD and ICE, protesters want more than just well-worded 3:02:59.470 --> 3:03:04.090 statements and these reviews. They want to see more actionable change. 3:03:04.720 --> 3:03:07.740 whether that's using his position as mayor as a sort 3:03:07.760 --> 3:03:12.519 of bully pulpit to rally the masses against ICE, or 3:03:12.620 --> 3:03:15.890 employ more direct measures to protect New Yorkers from ICE. 3:03:16.570 --> 3:03:20.730 What those measures may be is not entirely clear. And 3:03:21.270 --> 3:03:23.630 if the left wants to be effective in agitating for 3:03:23.690 --> 3:03:27.610 larger social change, beyond making just general demands of electeds, 3:03:27.770 --> 3:03:31.250 it may be worth closely considering why an elected is 3:03:31.330 --> 3:03:34.230 taking certain actions, the constraints of their power and the 3:03:34.290 --> 3:03:38.450 contradictions inherent to holding office, so that those not in 3:03:38.510 --> 3:03:41.990 office can apply targeted outside pressure to counteract the pressure 3:03:42.110 --> 3:03:44.890 coming from the federal and state level, and just the 3:03:44.930 --> 3:03:50.060 pressures of governing itself. Though firing Tisch may please some 3:03:50.090 --> 3:03:54.099 of Zoran's left-wing base, more broadly it is politically risky 3:03:54.280 --> 3:03:56.600 and could damage Zoran as he tries to enact his 3:03:56.660 --> 3:04:00.470 economic agenda while contending with a centrist governor and a 3:04:00.810 --> 3:04:04.970 very hostile federal administration. From City Hall's perspective, choosing to 3:04:05.010 --> 3:04:07.929 go to war with the NYPD right now could undermine 3:04:08.129 --> 3:04:11.880 Zoran's ability to protect New York from ICE, whether by limiting... 3:04:11.970 --> 3:04:15.510 the scale of ICE operations, or ideally keeping ICE out 3:04:15.550 --> 3:04:17.910 of the city entirely. Of course, none of this means 3:04:17.930 --> 3:04:22.300 that people should stop protesting. Protesting is the crucial thing 3:04:22.320 --> 3:04:24.580 that could apply pressure here. But it's also going to 3:04:24.600 --> 3:04:27.619 have to be more than 400 of New York's most 3:04:27.740 --> 3:04:31.140 left-wing protesters. It's going to have to require mass engagement. 3:04:31.780 --> 3:04:33.860 But the thing I wanted to emphasize here at the 3:04:33.920 --> 3:04:37.990 end is that a socialist elected to an executive position 3:04:38.410 --> 3:04:42.090 and a protester and an organizer outside of government are 3:04:42.150 --> 3:04:46.269 very different kinds of political actors whose positions strongly influence 3:04:46.290 --> 3:04:49.039 the actions they take or may be inclined to take. 3:04:49.580 --> 3:04:53.020 Protests supply an important pressure on city leaders to pursue 3:04:53.080 --> 3:04:56.580 certain aims, but our political analysis must take account of 3:04:56.660 --> 3:04:59.960 the balance of forces within the state. Does anyone else 3:04:59.980 --> 3:05:02.789 have any thoughts on this? I'm sure Mia does. 3:05:03.470 --> 3:05:07.490 Yeah, well, I think part of what's happening here on 3:05:07.510 --> 3:05:11.590 a broader scale is that, like, One of the reasons 3:05:11.610 --> 3:05:15.590 that ICE has been successful over the last, call it 3:05:15.640 --> 3:05:22.019 like three or four months, in significant escalations of raids, 3:05:22.320 --> 3:05:24.080 and we've talked about this a little bit on this show, 3:05:24.120 --> 3:05:26.539 but there have been huge escalations in raids in Texas 3:05:26.700 --> 3:05:30.240 and raids in Florida. And there's also been kind of 3:05:30.340 --> 3:05:34.650 beneath the notice of people who aren't there, a really 3:05:34.670 --> 3:05:39.570 significant escalation in places like Minneapolis and But they're doing 3:05:39.610 --> 3:05:40.190 it quietly. 3:05:40.410 --> 3:05:40.610 Yeah. 3:05:40.629 --> 3:05:43.090 Like, they're not fighting with protesters. They're going in, they're 3:05:43.110 --> 3:05:45.950 grabbing people, and they're leaving. And I think this is 3:05:45.990 --> 3:05:48.650 one of the things the protesters are thinking about to 3:05:48.670 --> 3:05:51.449 some extent, which is part of why their calculus is 3:05:51.470 --> 3:05:54.529 different in the mayor's office, because, you know, one of 3:05:54.580 --> 3:05:57.300 the things that's been allowing all of this to happen 3:05:57.500 --> 3:05:59.600 is that ICE has been able to do this smoothly. 3:05:59.800 --> 3:06:00.039 Yeah. 3:06:00.560 --> 3:06:04.220 The fact that they'll do it smoothly, quietly, and without disturbing, like, 3:06:04.400 --> 3:06:05.540 the broader public order. 3:06:05.560 --> 3:06:05.640 Yeah. 3:06:06.690 --> 3:06:08.760 Is a big part of how they've been able to 3:06:09.459 --> 3:06:12.560 really ramp up rates without the kind of mass resistance 3:06:12.640 --> 3:06:14.340 that we saw. 3:06:14.160 --> 3:06:15.020 Earlier in the year. 3:06:15.040 --> 3:06:21.830 But this leads you to a structural problem with the 3:06:21.850 --> 3:06:26.070 position of someone holding office, which is that, A, holding 3:06:26.110 --> 3:06:28.410 office in the U.S. does not give you a monopoly 3:06:28.470 --> 3:06:32.220 on violence because the police are effectively a semi-independent force. 3:06:33.290 --> 3:06:37.420 And you can do oversight on them to some extent, 3:06:38.110 --> 3:06:41.020 but as long as you're sending them there, even if 3:06:41.060 --> 3:06:43.600 you tell them, hey, don't beat up protesters, they're going 3:06:43.640 --> 3:06:46.500 to go beat up Congress people. And then you have 3:06:46.520 --> 3:06:49.400 a secondary problem, which is that if you're running the 3:06:49.440 --> 3:06:52.380 government of New York, your job is to maintain public order. 3:06:53.160 --> 3:06:55.859 And the way that you defeat ICE is through breaking 3:06:56.040 --> 3:07:00.340 public order. And this puts you inherently in tension. with 3:07:00.760 --> 3:07:04.100 the state itself in a position where Mondani ends up 3:07:04.120 --> 3:07:09.860 being aligned structurally with the police trying to do protest control. 3:07:10.920 --> 3:07:14.209 And this is just sort of like the structural limits 3:07:14.530 --> 3:07:17.430 of what kind of power you actually hold in the 3:07:17.470 --> 3:07:21.010 United States when you are elected. Because, yeah, I was like, no, 3:07:21.030 --> 3:07:27.580 we're keeping on fucking Adams-era police commissioner because if you 3:07:27.610 --> 3:07:31.080 want to try to have the body that's nominally enforcing 3:07:31.120 --> 3:07:35.240 your legitimacy on violence, you have to go to war 3:07:35.280 --> 3:07:40.200 with people who can fight you. And that's just a 3:07:40.220 --> 3:07:44.280 huge structural problem with power in the American government. Yeah, 3:07:44.320 --> 3:07:49.709 and Tisch was also retained. essentially following requests from hokal 3:07:49.890 --> 3:07:52.230 as a sort of like yeah sign to hokal that 3:07:52.270 --> 3:07:55.919 like zorn will still be like a competent administrator essentially 3:07:55.980 --> 3:07:57.279 it was it was it was it was assigned to 3:07:57.320 --> 3:08:00.180 her to kind of get her on board during the 3:08:00.220 --> 3:08:03.539 general election yeah and then also you know extract economic 3:08:04.080 --> 3:08:07.000 wins and revenue from the state so that mom donnie 3:08:07.020 --> 3:08:09.650 can have the funding for things like universal child care 3:08:09.670 --> 3:08:11.350 and it's that was one of the calculations that was 3:08:11.390 --> 3:08:14.120 made and and he did like announce his intention to 3:08:14.180 --> 3:08:16.439 retain her during, during the campaign. So this wasn't, is it, 3:08:16.440 --> 3:08:19.320 this isn't necessarily one of his campaign promises, the way 3:08:19.820 --> 3:08:21.180 abolishing SRG is. 3:08:21.730 --> 3:08:24.990 Yeah. And which he seems to be still trying to 3:08:25.050 --> 3:08:27.390 work on and you can apply, but as we see from, 3:08:27.690 --> 3:08:30.750 you know, NYC DSA, Zoran's political home, a pressure can 3:08:30.770 --> 3:08:33.209 still be applied on both of these things. Yeah. And, and, 3:08:33.270 --> 3:08:35.230 and should be in that pressure is necessary. Even if 3:08:35.270 --> 3:08:38.350 that means you're going to be going against someone who 3:08:38.410 --> 3:08:41.330 is like, you know, an economic ally, right. In terms of, 3:08:41.500 --> 3:08:43.629 in terms of, yeah. how he's trying to run the city. 3:08:44.129 --> 3:08:47.190 But there are going to be these contradictions that part 3:08:47.230 --> 3:08:49.930 of the left winning power in these places means we 3:08:49.970 --> 3:08:52.110 have to deal with those contradictions. You have to go 3:08:52.150 --> 3:08:54.490 through them, not just avoid them. You can't just avoid 3:08:54.570 --> 3:08:58.050 conflict here. You have to pursue it with focus and determination. 3:08:58.790 --> 3:09:02.770 I think sometimes, at least in conversations in New York 3:09:03.050 --> 3:09:05.470 over the NYPD aspect, I definitely do not want to 3:09:05.850 --> 3:09:09.270 distract from the ice angle here as there is a 3:09:09.290 --> 3:09:11.849 man With a bullet still literally in his neck. 3:09:12.110 --> 3:09:12.330 Yeah. 3:09:12.570 --> 3:09:15.350 And I hope that that gets some more focus in 3:09:15.400 --> 3:09:19.959 these next few days. Yeah. Because that situation has not 3:09:20.000 --> 3:09:37.990 resolved itself. In the episode description, I will link New 3:09:38.010 --> 3:09:43.070 York City's immigration resources, the Immigration Legal Support Hotline, the 3:09:43.230 --> 3:09:46.970 intake form for the Rapid Response Legal Collaborative for people 3:09:47.050 --> 3:09:50.920 facing the threat of detention or deportation, as well as 3:09:51.000 --> 3:09:53.640 the Know Your Rights booklets that the city offers in 3:09:53.720 --> 3:09:57.800 multiple languages. It's time for us to go on an 3:09:57.900 --> 3:10:00.300 ad break, and then we will return for more news, 3:10:00.320 --> 3:10:13.859 because it has been a busy week. We are back. 3:10:15.560 --> 3:10:19.200 Let's now go through some of our small things here. Mia, 3:10:19.240 --> 3:10:20.340 do you want to start us off? 3:10:21.320 --> 3:10:21.680 Yeah. 3:10:21.800 --> 3:10:26.310 So speaking of the filmed shooting of people in America, 3:10:26.330 --> 3:10:31.530 Pete Hegseth has announced that he is planning to live 3:10:31.550 --> 3:10:35.220 stream the execution by firing squad of the 2009 Fort 3:10:35.250 --> 3:10:39.660 Hood shooter. He announced this by email. Quote tweeting a 3:10:39.860 --> 3:10:44.849 CBS News tweet about the Pentagon's plan with a quote 3:10:44.890 --> 3:10:49.369 tweet that says, quote, correct. And that's that's how it 3:10:49.410 --> 3:10:52.330 was announced by the U.S. government that we were going 3:10:52.390 --> 3:10:56.070 to execute a man by firing squad. A thing that 3:10:56.330 --> 3:11:00.140 the military hasn't executed someone in 65 years. And live streamed. 3:11:00.300 --> 3:11:04.180 The live streaming part specifically is that is 30s lynching shit. 3:11:04.420 --> 3:11:05.240 That's crazy. 3:11:05.930 --> 3:11:08.550 Like, to be honest, I don't support the death penalty 3:11:08.590 --> 3:11:10.869 for the military. Like, the state shouldn't be doing that, 3:11:10.910 --> 3:11:13.480 in my opinion. But among death penalty options, I don't 3:11:13.520 --> 3:11:16.060 care about, like, a firing squad. Like, I actually think 3:11:16.080 --> 3:11:18.900 that's more ethical than the fucking lethal injections they're doing. 3:11:19.379 --> 3:11:23.140 But live streaming? It's depraved. It's sick shit. 3:11:23.240 --> 3:11:23.560 Yeah. 3:11:23.780 --> 3:11:25.930 That also just more so points to the brutality of 3:11:25.950 --> 3:11:27.789 lethal injection, despite it being this. 3:11:27.890 --> 3:11:28.029 Yeah. 3:11:28.550 --> 3:11:32.170 Thing that's marketed as peaceful and civil. Yes, I'm not 3:11:32.230 --> 3:11:35.000 saying it's nice to shoot people. Yeah, it's also horrible. 3:11:35.040 --> 3:11:38.480 It's much worse than shooting them. Yeah, the fact that 3:11:38.520 --> 3:11:41.060 lethal injection is by all accounts actually a more horrific 3:11:41.080 --> 3:11:46.289 way to die than a literal firing squad is itself crazy. 3:11:47.090 --> 3:11:50.010 If you know what you're doing, a bullet's quick. But 3:11:50.030 --> 3:11:51.720 I mean, the live streaming thing is insane. 3:11:51.750 --> 3:11:56.160 Yeah, it's horrible. Like, obviously, there's been widespread condemnation of this. 3:11:56.440 --> 3:11:58.859 The people who have been really in support of this 3:11:59.100 --> 3:12:01.840 have been a bunch of the worst Silicon Valley fascists. 3:12:02.580 --> 3:12:05.930 There was a quote from Palmer Luckey, who is one 3:12:05.950 --> 3:12:09.609 of the founders of Andriel, which is a Silicon Valley 3:12:09.670 --> 3:12:11.090 weapons manufacturer we've talked about. 3:12:11.110 --> 3:12:13.250 They make drones. They make a bunch of other shit. 3:12:14.110 --> 3:12:17.550 Who said, quote, and then there are those who suggest 3:12:17.750 --> 3:12:21.300 any revel in the death of those who truly deserve 3:12:21.340 --> 3:12:23.860 it is an indicator of a broken or diseased mind. 3:12:24.020 --> 3:12:27.000 To the contrary, it is normal, good, and aligned with 3:12:27.060 --> 3:12:29.920 our natural order that it has not been done here 3:12:29.980 --> 3:12:32.340 in 60 years as an indictment in and of itself. 3:12:33.080 --> 3:12:35.210 And the thing I would say about this is to 3:12:35.290 --> 3:12:38.610 everyone who wants to do this, like, are you sure 3:12:38.709 --> 3:12:41.010 you want to live in the world where you've opened 3:12:41.050 --> 3:12:41.369 this door? 3:12:42.410 --> 3:12:42.730 Yeah. 3:12:42.850 --> 3:12:44.930 Like, are you sure you want what follows? 3:12:45.450 --> 3:12:49.520 Do you want us to talk about live streaming executions? 3:12:49.560 --> 3:12:51.740 Because I will tell you, I don't think a lot 3:12:51.780 --> 3:12:54.560 of Americans want to watch this execution live stream, but 3:12:54.600 --> 3:12:56.980 there are some executions I can imagine a lot of 3:12:57.040 --> 3:12:59.310 Americans would want to watch on a live stream. 3:12:59.340 --> 3:13:02.670 Read up on your Chochescu is all I'm saying about this. 3:13:02.690 --> 3:13:05.750 Look at your poll numbers and read about Chochescu. 3:13:05.770 --> 3:13:09.320 Yeah. You can't help but think of like, When our 3:13:09.379 --> 3:13:12.359 term comes, we shall make no excuse for the terror. Like, 3:13:13.440 --> 3:13:18.890 I'm there, baby. I've never understood those words so much 3:13:18.950 --> 3:13:19.869 as I do now. 3:13:19.930 --> 3:13:21.910 I would prefer that that door remained shut because I 3:13:21.950 --> 3:13:23.890 don't think you should be publicly executing people. I don't 3:13:23.910 --> 3:13:26.230 think you should be publicly executing people on livestream. But like, 3:13:27.350 --> 3:13:29.820 you're opening this fucking door. If that's what we're doing, 3:13:29.879 --> 3:13:30.620 it's like. 3:13:32.230 --> 3:13:34.870 I can I can agree. Perhaps the country would be 3:13:34.910 --> 3:13:38.289 better if everyone couldn't buy an AR-15. But you opened 3:13:38.310 --> 3:13:41.250 the door. So I have like six. Right. 3:13:42.140 --> 3:13:45.560 It's also it has been reported that Trump is debating 3:13:45.820 --> 3:13:49.360 canceling the live stream only after he learned that the 3:13:49.400 --> 3:13:52.760 shooter was paralyzed, which is very interesting. 3:13:54.000 --> 3:13:56.959 Every now and then, you get a little insight into 3:13:56.980 --> 3:14:00.160 the fact that Trump does have some kind of moral 3:14:00.240 --> 3:14:03.900 schema in his head, and it's always baffling when you 3:14:03.940 --> 3:14:05.750 get a hint of how it really looks. 3:14:06.200 --> 3:14:09.410 It's always just completely unhinged. I mean, that just might 3:14:09.430 --> 3:14:12.390 be an optics thing, too. Yeah, that is an optics thing, 3:14:12.410 --> 3:14:14.130 but it's showing his awareness of the moral component and 3:14:14.150 --> 3:14:14.390 the optics. 3:14:14.410 --> 3:14:14.510 Yeah. 3:14:21.160 --> 3:14:23.620 Yeah, exactly. It's just nuts. It's just like, that was 3:14:23.640 --> 3:14:28.260 your line, huh? Maybe. Like, okay. Oh, God. 3:14:28.340 --> 3:14:28.680 All right. 3:14:30.600 --> 3:14:34.980 Quick update here. On Thursday, President Trump did, in fact, 3:14:35.080 --> 3:14:39.840 cancel the planned live stream of the Fort Hood shooter's execution. 3:14:41.250 --> 3:14:46.209 Moving on. On Monday, DHS and HSI Homeland Security Investigations 3:14:46.450 --> 3:14:50.900 raided the D.C. home of Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar. This 3:14:50.959 --> 3:14:56.679 follows confirmation at the midterm RNC from Secretary Mullen that 3:14:57.080 --> 3:15:01.170 there is an investigation into the allegations of immigration fraud 3:15:01.350 --> 3:15:05.510 made against Omar based on a years old racist conspiracy theory. 3:15:06.110 --> 3:15:09.010 After the raid on Monday, Ilhan made a statement, quote, 3:15:09.890 --> 3:15:13.300 I'm OK. Make no mistake. This is an attempt to 3:15:13.350 --> 3:15:17.610 target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement. 10 years, 3:15:17.730 --> 3:15:21.240 Trump has targeted me with baseless lies and smear campaigns. 3:15:21.770 --> 3:15:24.879 This is just the latest escalation in his campaign of 3:15:24.940 --> 3:15:28.900 political intimidation. I will not be silenced, unquote. 3:15:28.920 --> 3:15:31.459 It's also worth noting, like, we're coming up on the elections, 3:15:31.620 --> 3:15:33.320 and this is the shit that's happening right now. 3:15:34.000 --> 3:15:38.060 Quick update here. Shortly after recording, the Wall Street Journal 3:15:38.200 --> 3:15:44.020 reported that the Trump administration's investigations into Representative Omar's is 3:15:44.240 --> 3:15:47.120 specifically aimed at building a case to strip her of 3:15:47.180 --> 3:15:51.720 her U.S. citizenship and ultimately deport her. We will likely 3:15:51.820 --> 3:15:53.320 talk about this more next week. 3:15:54.420 --> 3:15:56.720 I do want to take us a little bit further 3:15:57.060 --> 3:16:01.420 from the United States to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 3:16:01.440 --> 3:16:06.070 There's a long ongoing conflict there between the Congolese government 3:16:06.350 --> 3:16:09.170 and the rebel group M23, which is backed by the 3:16:09.209 --> 3:16:14.310 Rwandan state. Eric Prince and his mercenary corporation, Vectus, have 3:16:14.330 --> 3:16:17.600 been contracted by the Congolese government to fight against M23. 3:16:17.680 --> 3:16:20.900 What I'm talking about actually happened on September 17th, but 3:16:20.920 --> 3:16:22.879 we just found out about it within the last couple 3:16:22.920 --> 3:16:26.580 of days. During intense fighting in the Menemwe highlands, a 3:16:26.660 --> 3:16:31.450 group of Prince's mercenaries were ambushed and roughly 20 of 3:16:31.510 --> 3:16:34.730 them were killed or injured. This came after a clash 3:16:34.750 --> 3:16:37.650 earlier in September in which several Colombian contractors were killed. 3:16:38.160 --> 3:16:42.280 During this most recent ambush, a New Zealand military veteran 3:16:42.490 --> 3:16:46.130 was killed and an American named Tim Kennedy, who was 3:16:46.150 --> 3:16:48.949 a former Green Beret, and then after being a Green Beret, 3:16:48.970 --> 3:16:52.420 a former UFC fighter. fighter, was badly injured. I think 3:16:52.440 --> 3:16:54.000 he got shot three times in the leg. Sounds like 3:16:54.020 --> 3:16:55.660 there's a good chance he'll lose a leg, but I 3:16:55.680 --> 3:16:59.180 don't really know for certain. And was evac'd and wound 3:16:59.240 --> 3:17:02.340 up eventually at a U.S. military hospital in Germany. So 3:17:03.620 --> 3:17:04.900 there's a couple of things about this. First off, I've 3:17:04.920 --> 3:17:06.250 seen people being like, why is the U.S. 3:17:06.280 --> 3:17:06.750 Military. 3:17:07.300 --> 3:17:08.860 Yeah, paying for the health care of a mercenary because 3:17:08.900 --> 3:17:11.180 he's a veteran. It's not weird that he went to 3:17:11.200 --> 3:17:14.130 a military hospital, right? He's entitled to that, to health 3:17:14.150 --> 3:17:16.590 care of that kind. The bigger issue is that Eric 3:17:16.610 --> 3:17:19.170 Prince has a mercenary corporation that's active in the Congo. 3:17:19.709 --> 3:17:22.450 Things do not seem to be going well for Prince 3:17:22.650 --> 3:17:25.670 or for Vectis in the Congo. Although, again, we don't 3:17:25.709 --> 3:17:27.460 know that. We just know 20 injured and killed. I 3:17:27.450 --> 3:17:28.800 don't know how many killed. I don't know what their 3:17:28.820 --> 3:17:31.220 nationalities were. They're not a real military, so they don't 3:17:31.240 --> 3:17:32.920 have to tell anybody that shit, right? 3:17:33.300 --> 3:17:33.859 Yeah. 3:17:33.920 --> 3:17:36.699 Once James is back, I'm sure we'll put together an episode. 3:17:37.200 --> 3:17:39.560 covering in more detail, like what's happening in the Congo, 3:17:39.580 --> 3:17:41.750 because that's important. And it's not really a topic we've 3:17:41.830 --> 3:17:44.230 covered a lot on this show. As a little bit 3:17:44.270 --> 3:17:47.050 of a fun note, because this really pissed off a 3:17:47.090 --> 3:17:49.890 lot of people on X, the everything app, like a 3:17:49.930 --> 3:17:52.250 lot of right wingers who are angry that turns out 3:17:52.350 --> 3:17:54.970 US Special Forces guys aren't nearly as badass without air support. 3:17:55.110 --> 3:17:56.810 Yeah, they can just get killed in the jungle like 3:17:56.910 --> 3:17:57.510 anybody else. 3:17:58.030 --> 3:18:00.610 Bullets don't discriminate on how much training or whatever you have, 3:18:00.660 --> 3:18:03.440 how cool you look in pictures. So this started a 3:18:03.480 --> 3:18:06.439 discourse that ended ultimately with a poll and a week 3:18:06.500 --> 3:18:09.620 long discussion as to whether or not all of Europe 3:18:10.140 --> 3:18:12.200 in 1939 could conquer modern 2026 Africa. 78% of X 3:18:12.250 --> 3:18:17.550 voted they believe 1939 Europe. Let me tell you something, folks. 3:18:17.910 --> 3:18:20.750 This is objectively true. Anyone who knows anything about modern 3:18:20.910 --> 3:18:23.490 20th century warfare will tell you it wouldn't take all 3:18:23.530 --> 3:18:28.650 of Africa. Egypt alone could wipe out 1939 Europe. to 3:18:28.680 --> 3:18:32.689 the man militarily without a single soldier landing in Africa. 3:18:33.090 --> 3:18:38.050 They have Rafale fighters. They have 1,100 Abrams tanks. Even 3:18:38.070 --> 3:18:40.760 if you were to take somehow and magically transport all 3:18:40.780 --> 3:18:44.020 of the tanks in Europe in 1939. And remember, in 1939, 3:18:44.020 --> 3:18:46.439 none of the cool shit from World War II existed yet, 3:18:46.560 --> 3:18:48.940 by the way. The German army, I mean, it ended 3:18:48.980 --> 3:18:51.699 the war horse-based, but it was really horse-based in 1939, right? 3:18:52.490 --> 3:18:54.650 If you were to take all of the tanks, every 3:18:54.750 --> 3:18:58.430 armored vehicle, and put them against just Egypt's Abrams tanks, 3:18:58.510 --> 3:19:01.530 and by the way, there's 600 T-90 tanks or something 3:19:01.570 --> 3:19:04.070 like that in Algeria. I don't know how many Abrams 3:19:04.090 --> 3:19:06.590 tanks fucking Morocco has, but it's a lot. But if 3:19:06.610 --> 3:19:09.550 you take just Egypt's Abrams tanks, there was not a 3:19:09.709 --> 3:19:12.830 single man or vehicle portable weapon on the planet that 3:19:12.850 --> 3:19:17.610 could pierce Chobham armor in 1939. The battle would be 3:19:17.670 --> 3:19:18.369 over in seconds. 3:19:18.610 --> 3:19:18.850 Yeah. 3:19:19.330 --> 3:19:24.810 Anyway, one of the more amusing pieces of derangement online lately. Oh, God, 3:19:24.850 --> 3:19:26.670 I just love it when people are crazy. That's what 3:19:26.690 --> 3:19:26.990 I got. 3:19:28.450 --> 3:19:31.780 One of the other things that James, I assume James 3:19:31.800 --> 3:19:34.480 will want to talk more once he gets back, is 3:19:34.500 --> 3:19:37.720 early this week, J.D. Vance, as part of his fraud 3:19:37.840 --> 3:19:42.920 task force, announced big crackdowns on H-1B visas at Microsoft 3:19:43.020 --> 3:19:47.070 and J-1 visas at universities. Hmm. So this is something 3:19:47.090 --> 3:19:50.910 that does deserve more dedicated focus in a future episode. 3:19:50.930 --> 3:19:56.090 Netflix this week has laid off about 1,000 employees. That's 3:19:56.140 --> 3:19:58.360 roughly 6% of their workforce. 3:19:59.000 --> 3:19:59.620 Oh, it sucks. 3:20:00.220 --> 3:20:05.240 Before Paramount acquired Warner Brothers, Netflix was trying to acquire 3:20:05.280 --> 3:20:10.420 Warner Brothers. In election news, but an even cooler kind, 3:20:10.800 --> 3:20:15.000 Sean Fain and his left-wing slate at United UAW Just 3:20:15.260 --> 3:20:19.199 swept the United Auto Worker elections. We are the incumbents now. 3:20:19.780 --> 3:20:20.820 Yes, yes, yes. 3:20:20.860 --> 3:20:22.280 Just totally demolished. 3:20:22.740 --> 3:20:26.179 And look, do some of us find it entertaining that 3:20:26.230 --> 3:20:28.970 his name sounds a lot like the Irish political party 3:20:29.010 --> 3:20:29.510 Sinn Féin? 3:20:29.810 --> 3:20:33.030 Of course. That's all I have to say. 3:20:33.050 --> 3:20:35.930 How much did he win by, Ger? 3:20:36.290 --> 3:20:44.780 Sion Féin won with 67.98%. To runner up Rich Boyer's 14%. 3:20:44.780 --> 3:20:51.250 Nice work, Rich. I'll glitter it. Nailed it. You really 3:20:51.280 --> 3:20:52.650 hit the zeitgeist there, my man. 3:20:52.670 --> 3:20:56.070 You think that like regular politicians have incumbency advantage? You 3:20:56.110 --> 3:20:57.890 have never seen a union election. 3:20:57.910 --> 3:21:01.470 Oh, my God. Especially a union election for a guy 3:21:01.490 --> 3:21:05.040 who like made things better in the union. Like, damn. Yeah, yeah. 3:21:05.629 --> 3:21:08.080 Yeah, there's just a Catholic school in Oregon that fired 3:21:08.090 --> 3:21:09.920 their football coach because he won by too much. 3:21:10.020 --> 3:21:10.440 Oh, yeah. 3:21:10.480 --> 3:21:13.619 He was scoring points when it was just kind of mean. 3:21:13.900 --> 3:21:15.930 I feel that way about Sean. It's like, okay, man, 3:21:16.300 --> 3:21:18.120 did you really need 67% of the vote? 3:21:18.940 --> 3:21:21.940 For details, by the way, that guy ran an onside 3:21:22.020 --> 3:21:24.350 kick before halftime up 57. 3:21:24.350 --> 3:21:28.690 So that's some sicko shit. But also, I did not 3:21:28.750 --> 3:21:29.990 know Sean had game like that. 3:21:30.010 --> 3:21:30.890 Yeah. 3:21:33.379 --> 3:21:37.060 Starting this week, the White House has a new press secretary, 3:21:37.580 --> 3:21:41.400 Katie Zachariah. And I'll be the first to say she's 3:21:41.440 --> 3:21:44.840 doing great. She's amazing work. You know, no notes. I 3:21:45.080 --> 3:21:46.240 think we can move on, right? 3:21:47.340 --> 3:21:48.840 I adore my family. 3:21:49.080 --> 3:21:49.840 I love them. 3:21:49.879 --> 3:21:53.500 They are my priority. I love being with my kids. 3:21:53.879 --> 3:21:57.200 The idea of not spending evenings with my kids is 3:21:57.440 --> 3:22:03.930 completely unacceptable. So my president, excuse me, my husband, that's 3:22:03.950 --> 3:22:06.250 a good one. My husband is out here. 3:22:07.140 --> 3:22:12.430 Incredible. Oh, my God. Incredible slip. Oh, my God. Incredible slip. Oh, 3:22:12.510 --> 3:22:15.090 my God. Is she the one that was, like, claiming 3:22:15.110 --> 3:22:15.810 to be a lawyer? 3:22:16.030 --> 3:22:16.330 Yes. 3:22:17.270 --> 3:22:20.880 Yes, in China. In China. She passed the bar in China? 3:22:20.940 --> 3:22:23.160 Let me be clear. No, she didn't. 3:22:24.080 --> 3:22:29.910 Like, I would bet my life she did not pass 3:22:29.940 --> 3:22:30.750 the bar in China. 3:22:31.410 --> 3:22:32.629 Like, I am that certain. 3:22:32.650 --> 3:22:32.990 Wow. 3:22:33.090 --> 3:22:35.190 Like, I am as certain of that as I am 3:22:35.250 --> 3:22:37.990 certain that 90% of people who write about Taiwanese politics 3:22:38.070 --> 3:22:39.390 can't name three Taiwanese cities. 3:22:40.090 --> 3:22:42.710 I don't know, Mia. She seems to have a pretty 3:22:42.790 --> 3:22:46.970 solid grasp of foreign policy. Let's see her Mandarin. Here's 3:22:47.010 --> 3:22:49.070 her talking about Venezuela. 3:22:49.840 --> 3:22:53.250 He had a historic one-day war, and now we have 3:22:53.270 --> 3:22:58.359 a booming economy and a great relationship with Venezuela. 3:22:59.230 --> 3:22:59.890 Incredible. 3:23:00.070 --> 3:23:02.670 I'm looking forward to covering her. I don't know what 3:23:02.690 --> 3:23:04.330 you're talking about. This is going to be great. 3:23:04.570 --> 3:23:06.879 By the way, for people who can't see this clip, 3:23:07.280 --> 3:23:10.500 the amazing part is she, when she stops before she 3:23:10.540 --> 3:23:13.460 says Venezuela, she is looking down at the page. 3:23:13.580 --> 3:23:15.359 She looks down at her notes. 3:23:15.760 --> 3:23:20.380 To remember what country she's talking about. Incredible stuff. 3:23:20.620 --> 3:23:23.810 We could do a whole episode about this first press conference. 3:23:23.850 --> 3:23:26.550 There's some great clips going around if you want to 3:23:26.590 --> 3:23:27.050 have fun. 3:23:27.070 --> 3:23:27.570 God. 3:23:28.450 --> 3:23:32.830 Less fun, on the afternoon of October 7th in Sacramento, 3:23:33.520 --> 3:23:36.620 a day after the county began mailing out ballots, an 3:23:36.660 --> 3:23:39.500 SUV pulled up to a USPS mail truck. A masked 3:23:39.540 --> 3:23:42.120 man got out of the SUV and stole trays of 3:23:42.200 --> 3:23:46.440 mail from the truck. Residents have reported their mail-in ballots 3:23:46.550 --> 3:23:50.170 are now missing. Great stuff happening here. Love this country. 3:23:50.490 --> 3:23:55.610 A few days later, the National Guard were videoed standing 3:23:56.070 --> 3:24:01.550 in front of... Ballot drop boxes in D.C. They claimed 3:24:01.570 --> 3:24:05.450 that they were not legally guarding the boxes because that's illegal. 3:24:05.470 --> 3:24:11.310 But they were meandering in front of ballot drop boxes. 3:24:11.830 --> 3:24:12.129 Yeah. 3:24:13.090 --> 3:24:20.240 God. Not great stuff just a few weeks before the election. Lastly, 3:24:20.959 --> 3:24:26.070 while addressing a MAGA crowd in Tennessee... Trump made this 3:24:26.390 --> 3:24:29.120 very accurate comment. No, it's true. 3:24:29.600 --> 3:24:38.820 No, there's such love. It's like, like, I mean, it's amazing. 3:24:39.280 --> 3:24:41.360 When you stand up here, it's just like the love. 3:24:41.780 --> 3:24:44.170 I could say the stupidest things and you're clapping, oh, 3:24:44.200 --> 3:24:44.810 I love you so much. 3:24:45.330 --> 3:24:45.830 That's true. 3:24:47.490 --> 3:24:49.850 But we don't say the stupidest things. We say things 3:24:49.910 --> 3:24:50.830 of common sense. 3:24:50.850 --> 3:24:53.310 There's so much clapping to that. 3:24:57.140 --> 3:24:58.620 He knows his fans. What can you say? 3:24:58.640 --> 3:25:00.960 He certainly does. 3:25:00.980 --> 3:25:04.940 And speaking of fans, I have a segment here for us. 3:25:05.240 --> 3:25:06.580 It is sports season for me. 3:25:07.480 --> 3:25:10.970 With the WNBA and MLB playoffs going on and the 3:25:11.090 --> 3:25:12.930 NBA season starting, it's exciting. 3:25:12.950 --> 3:25:15.050 I have not approved this message. Fuck off. 3:25:15.490 --> 3:25:16.650 It's exciting for. 3:25:16.550 --> 3:25:20.250 Me, but it also means I'm exposed to television commercial advertisements. 3:25:20.290 --> 3:25:20.490 Oh, my God. 3:25:20.610 --> 3:25:22.040 It's so bad. 3:25:22.140 --> 3:25:24.800 Besides the alarming number of sports betting ads, a new 3:25:24.820 --> 3:25:28.310 trend I'm upset about is AI ads targeting seniors. 3:25:28.370 --> 3:25:29.370 Let's take a listen. 3:25:30.660 --> 3:25:32.640 Can you go to my calendar and find me a 3:25:32.700 --> 3:25:35.000 half an hour tomorrow so I can mail some of 3:25:35.040 --> 3:25:36.780 these cookies to my grandson? 3:25:37.060 --> 3:25:38.680 I've added a post office trip at town. 3:25:38.700 --> 3:25:39.820 All right, Esther, we're ready. 3:25:40.040 --> 3:25:42.449 ChatGPT boys. 3:25:42.890 --> 3:25:45.870 ChatGPT boys got a whole lot more useful. 3:25:46.150 --> 3:25:50.070 It's no longer just answering questions. It's better at getting 3:25:50.190 --> 3:25:50.949 things done. 3:25:51.629 --> 3:25:52.510 Don't do me. 3:25:54.100 --> 3:25:54.920 Oh, honey. 3:25:54.940 --> 3:25:56.220 Let me show you an example. 3:25:56.459 --> 3:25:58.459 Can you go into my finances and let me know 3:25:58.520 --> 3:26:00.119 if you see any duplicate charges? 3:26:00.160 --> 3:26:00.820 Jesus. Sure. 3:26:00.900 --> 3:26:01.720 Checking your accounts. 3:26:02.040 --> 3:26:02.260 Okay. 3:26:02.480 --> 3:26:05.000 It looks like you're paying twice for a magazine called 3:26:05.060 --> 3:26:05.970 Sound and Stereo. 3:26:06.100 --> 3:26:09.050 Well, that's odd. Can you cancel the duplicate and send 3:26:09.090 --> 3:26:09.850 an e-refund? 3:26:10.110 --> 3:26:10.429 Of course. 3:26:11.490 --> 3:26:13.830 So you're just giving it access to your bank details 3:26:13.990 --> 3:26:15.970 as an old person. That doesn't seem like it'll lead 3:26:16.010 --> 3:26:17.470 you to getting scammed anymore. 3:26:17.550 --> 3:26:19.850 Yeah, I was pretty angry when I first saw that. 3:26:19.870 --> 3:26:21.720 I thought I was being irrationally angry, but now I 3:26:21.740 --> 3:26:23.420 think I'm just rational and that it sucks. 3:26:23.840 --> 3:26:26.820 I can't think of any way in which a chatbot 3:26:26.860 --> 3:26:30.120 that pulls for its answers from places like Reddit and 3:26:30.120 --> 3:26:33.310 the social Internet would spread like bad advice on what 3:26:33.310 --> 3:26:36.020 old people should do with their money once it has 3:26:36.020 --> 3:26:39.269 access to their bank accounts. I can't imagine that causing 3:26:39.270 --> 3:26:41.689 a problem. So I don't see what your issue is, Sophie. 3:26:42.450 --> 3:26:45.709 From the New York Post quote, it's very concerning, says Dr. 3:26:45.730 --> 3:26:49.580 Stacey Wood, clinical neuropsychologist and professor at Scripps College. Older 3:26:49.610 --> 3:26:53.160 people are maybe less aware of the algorithm's power, like 3:26:53.200 --> 3:26:55.660 how they work. It's really hard for them to discern 3:26:55.680 --> 3:26:59.000 what's credible and what's not. Older people are also taking 3:26:59.070 --> 3:27:02.160 up AI en masse. Hugh Data from February found that 3:27:02.200 --> 3:27:06.520 a full 23% of senior citizens use chatbots and 42% 3:27:06.520 --> 3:27:09.360 of those aged 50 to 64 are the same. And, 3:27:09.420 --> 3:27:11.400 you know, like keeping up with tech is not necessarily 3:27:11.440 --> 3:27:12.220 a bad thing. 3:27:12.840 --> 3:27:15.080 But Dr. Stacey Wood says it's a slippery slope. 3:27:15.180 --> 3:27:17.500 As people age, Wood noted, they also tend to be 3:27:17.540 --> 3:27:20.060 more likely to believe something is true because it is 3:27:20.080 --> 3:27:22.840 simply repeated to them over and over. And they're generally 3:27:22.890 --> 3:27:26.670 more susceptible to sensationalized and highly partisan content. 3:27:26.970 --> 3:27:29.390 I can say the dumbest things and you people would 3:27:29.410 --> 3:27:29.970 clap for me. 3:27:30.410 --> 3:27:31.010 Yeah. 3:27:31.510 --> 3:27:33.550 One of the issues, as you stated, Sophie, is that 3:27:33.590 --> 3:27:36.629 like it's actually more important, I think, for the elderly 3:27:36.730 --> 3:27:39.550 to be aware of what AI is capable of than 3:27:39.570 --> 3:27:41.709 a lot of other groups because they're being targeted so 3:27:41.770 --> 3:27:45.750 relentlessly by different kind of AI based scams. Unfortunately, that 3:27:45.900 --> 3:27:48.820 usually gets translated into you should be using AI, which 3:27:48.879 --> 3:27:50.080 is going to make a lot of these people more 3:27:50.120 --> 3:27:51.080 vulnerable to scams. 3:27:51.730 --> 3:27:54.009 Yeah, I mean, like, I don't like that there's this 3:27:54.030 --> 3:27:57.300 like trend that AI can can replace like human to 3:27:57.320 --> 3:28:01.260 human contact for our seniors. You guys, Garen, Robert, you 3:28:01.280 --> 3:28:04.330 saw a number of products at this year's CES that 3:28:04.370 --> 3:28:06.209 were targeting seniors in that way. 3:28:06.870 --> 3:28:09.410 We saw one or two reasonable ones and a lot 3:28:09.430 --> 3:28:10.010 of bad ones. 3:28:10.400 --> 3:28:11.240 Yeah. Yeah. 3:28:11.560 --> 3:28:14.240 And, you know, I guess slippery slope. 3:28:14.360 --> 3:28:17.900 But this commercial comes on a lot with different versions 3:28:18.140 --> 3:28:21.830 of seniors, almost always seniors that are women doing things and, 3:28:21.970 --> 3:28:26.320 you know. the chat GPT or whatever AI helping them. 3:28:27.000 --> 3:28:29.340 I just don't see a reason why chat GPT should 3:28:29.360 --> 3:28:33.500 have access to these people's calendars, finances, that kind of 3:28:33.520 --> 3:28:36.460 a thing. I don't see this ending well for so 3:28:36.500 --> 3:28:40.240 many folks. It lacks security and I'm angry about it 3:28:40.600 --> 3:28:43.750 and I wish it wasn't a trend that I see increasing, 3:28:43.810 --> 3:28:45.670 but that seems to be the path we're going on. 3:28:45.690 --> 3:28:46.210 Yeah. 3:28:46.290 --> 3:28:48.030 That's all I had on that. I just felt it 3:28:48.070 --> 3:28:51.070 was worth mentioning because it was On my mind. 3:28:51.350 --> 3:28:52.090 Yeah, yeah. 3:28:52.209 --> 3:28:54.070 Another story that's come out this week is that a 3:28:54.090 --> 3:28:56.879 bunch of anthropic researchers are now, or at least there's 3:28:56.900 --> 3:29:00.600 been stories in San Francisco. And you should always take 3:29:00.640 --> 3:29:01.920 this stuff with a grain of salt, but this is 3:29:01.940 --> 3:29:04.280 consistent with a lot of internal conversations that a lot 3:29:04.300 --> 3:29:06.300 of them have been taking up smoking because they're like, 3:29:06.379 --> 3:29:10.320 AI will cure cancer, right? And this has been occurring alongside, 3:29:10.379 --> 3:29:12.560 like there was just an interview with an AI researcher 3:29:12.860 --> 3:29:16.320 on the Delphi podcast for Anthropic who said he's enjoying 3:29:16.360 --> 3:29:18.970 his last six months. Part of the issue here is 3:29:20.120 --> 3:29:22.140 that if you try to engage with what these people 3:29:22.200 --> 3:29:24.910 are saying, then you wind up sounding to a lot 3:29:24.950 --> 3:29:28.340 of folks like you're just like ignoring the potential of 3:29:28.420 --> 3:29:30.860 AI and the things that it is actually capable of doing. 3:29:31.690 --> 3:29:34.030 But you have to engage with what the people making 3:29:34.050 --> 3:29:36.369 it are saying. And everything that the company is making 3:29:36.410 --> 3:29:38.390 this stuff is saying it's nuts. 3:29:38.810 --> 3:29:41.510 It's bullshit. It's lies. And it's insane. 3:29:41.930 --> 3:29:44.190 And that doesn't mean that these are not incredibly powerful 3:29:44.250 --> 3:29:45.449 and very dangerous tools. 3:29:45.470 --> 3:29:45.730 They are. 3:29:45.770 --> 3:29:49.110 They are extraordinarily dangerous because, among other things, they have 3:29:49.330 --> 3:29:52.900 automated the ability of small groups of nation states of 3:29:52.980 --> 3:29:57.560 non-state actors. to carry out massive digital attacks with a 3:29:57.580 --> 3:30:00.460 level of penetration and speed that was not possible before. 3:30:00.879 --> 3:30:04.660 And that's a huge problem. These things are very capable tools. 3:30:05.150 --> 3:30:07.890 It's just that everything being said by the people making 3:30:07.930 --> 3:30:11.050 them is insane bullshit, and it makes it very hard 3:30:11.150 --> 3:30:13.610 to have reasonable conversations about what should be done. 3:30:14.250 --> 3:30:18.380 Anyway. That's a really good point. Fuck these guys. Yeah. 3:30:18.400 --> 3:30:22.879 Let's go to ads real quick. Enjoy these hopefully non-AI products. 3:30:23.200 --> 3:30:23.540 Yeah. 3:30:34.650 --> 3:30:36.109 And we're back. 3:30:37.550 --> 3:30:41.000 And I think it's time for us to head south 3:30:41.280 --> 3:30:44.080 of the border that is south of the Polish border 3:30:44.480 --> 3:30:47.330 to talk about Ukraine. I don't know why I decided 3:30:47.370 --> 3:30:48.550 to lead in that way, but I did. 3:30:48.610 --> 3:30:49.030 Baffling. 3:30:49.520 --> 3:30:52.290 Things have unfortunately been very spicy in Ukraine over this 3:30:52.310 --> 3:30:55.410 last week. Last Friday, President Donald Trump announced that his 3:30:55.470 --> 3:30:58.359 Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and he had made a deal 3:30:58.459 --> 3:31:02.119 to release 300,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel to, quote, 3:31:02.220 --> 3:31:05.680 the American and global marketplace immediately. This came as a 3:31:05.720 --> 3:31:08.350 massive surprise to everyone because last month, Trump signed a 3:31:08.360 --> 3:31:11.289 massive sanctions law to stop Russia from making money selling 3:31:11.370 --> 3:31:13.330 oil and gas to fuel their war against Ukraine. 3:31:13.730 --> 3:31:15.470 The midterms crunch is really hurting. 3:31:16.590 --> 3:31:20.770 It's really making strange, not strange, but I guess normal bedfellows. 3:31:21.370 --> 3:31:23.290 All of this seems to be in response to continuing 3:31:23.330 --> 3:31:27.640 disastrous polling numbers of Republicans in the midterms. An APNORC 3:31:27.690 --> 3:31:31.200 poll published on October 1st showed that most Americans disapprove 3:31:31.240 --> 3:31:34.020 of Trump's war with Iran and blame him personally for 3:31:34.080 --> 3:31:38.230 higher gas prices because he's why we have higher gas prices. 3:31:39.150 --> 3:31:42.840 He has destroyed a generation of work. So trying to 3:31:42.860 --> 3:31:45.100 tell people the president does not control gas prices by 3:31:45.160 --> 3:31:47.260 finding the only possible way to actually. 3:31:47.100 --> 3:31:47.939 Increase gas prices. He really did. 3:31:47.959 --> 3:31:51.199 He definitely did. This is the first time that's been true. 3:31:51.730 --> 3:31:53.949 This is like the first time we've been in what 3:31:53.990 --> 3:31:56.190 is effectively a recession. You can say, no, it's directly 3:31:56.230 --> 3:31:59.209 as responsive to current policies, like literally direct. Like, I mean, 3:31:59.250 --> 3:32:01.670 obviously the 2008 crash, a lot, Bush did a lot 3:32:01.709 --> 3:32:02.980 to do with it, but most of that didn't hit 3:32:03.000 --> 3:32:03.580 until anyway. 3:32:03.900 --> 3:32:05.740 You know what I'm saying, right? Yeah. I did that. 3:32:06.120 --> 3:32:06.380 Yeah. 3:32:06.580 --> 3:32:07.320 Yeah, exactly. 3:32:07.820 --> 3:32:10.660 So Trump's goal was to make a deal with Putin 3:32:10.720 --> 3:32:13.960 to lower diesel prices in particular, as diesel prices have 3:32:13.980 --> 3:32:17.670 been debilitating to American farmers who tend to support Trump. 3:32:17.810 --> 3:32:19.470 And I think also just a lot of the ads 3:32:19.490 --> 3:32:21.250 that have been running with farmers being like Trump fucked 3:32:21.290 --> 3:32:24.830 me are really bad for Donald and for MAGA. in 3:32:24.890 --> 3:32:27.850 addition to the immediate 300,000 tons of diesel promised to 3:32:27.890 --> 3:32:31.130 be released, another 500,000 tons of Russian diesel were to 3:32:31.170 --> 3:32:33.710 be released by Russia in November, and 1 million more 3:32:33.750 --> 3:32:37.320 tons were to be released immediately hereafter. It's not actually 3:32:37.360 --> 3:32:39.140 clear if this is any kind of formal deal or 3:32:39.180 --> 3:32:42.200 if any of this is actually promised anywhere, what these 3:32:42.240 --> 3:32:44.180 numbers are based on. A lot of what Trump says 3:32:44.220 --> 3:32:47.600 is just nonsensical. So he says that in November, we'll 3:32:47.620 --> 3:32:50.470 get another half million, and then another million immediately hereafter, 3:32:50.770 --> 3:32:53.430 and then 3 million more tons within a short period 3:32:53.450 --> 3:32:57.430 of time. That's not what we what are you at? 3:32:57.530 --> 3:32:59.920 How much fuel is supposed to be released? This might 3:33:00.030 --> 3:33:03.820 be market manipulation. Genuinely, this might just be market manipulation. 3:33:03.879 --> 3:33:07.480 It's entirely possible as that probably leads you to believe 3:33:07.500 --> 3:33:09.820 there are serious doubts as to whether anything like what 3:33:09.860 --> 3:33:12.369 Trump has promised is possible to get out of Russia 3:33:12.410 --> 3:33:14.330 right now. And I will talk about the ethical and 3:33:14.350 --> 3:33:16.570 like Ukraine stuff. But I'm just talking about like, can 3:33:16.590 --> 3:33:18.490 they do this right? Like, do they even have the 3:33:18.530 --> 3:33:20.670 ability to get this fuel on the marketplace? 3:33:20.690 --> 3:33:20.890 Right. 3:33:21.209 --> 3:33:23.260 Per an article in the LA Times, quote, Now, while 3:33:23.280 --> 3:33:24.779 he says half of Russia's refining capacity has been damaged, 3:33:24.820 --> 3:33:26.540 that doesn't necessarily mean that, like, they're down by 50%. 3:33:26.540 --> 3:33:49.900 The IEA, the International Energy Association, said, Estimates that Ukrainian 3:33:49.920 --> 3:33:52.940 strikes on Russian refineries have cut Russia's diesel output by 3:33:52.940 --> 3:33:55.510 30 percent or so. That also could mean that they're 3:33:55.550 --> 3:33:58.580 like gas fuel output is by more than averages to 50. 3:33:58.570 --> 3:34:00.910 I don't fully know. I don't know anyone has other 3:34:00.930 --> 3:34:03.850 than the Russian government exact numbers on how much Russia's 3:34:04.270 --> 3:34:08.500 refining capacity has been damaged. Russia's deputy prime minister has 3:34:08.540 --> 3:34:12.800 tried to repost claims like what the Polish deputy minister 3:34:12.840 --> 3:34:15.820 said yesterday. Our foreign minister said, arguing that Russian exports 3:34:15.860 --> 3:34:19.580 would rise in November and December as previously damaged refineries 3:34:19.640 --> 3:34:22.270 return from maintenance. And obviously, I don't doubt that the 3:34:22.290 --> 3:34:25.450 Russian state is actively repairing and refurbishing damaged facilities and 3:34:25.470 --> 3:34:28.230 that some of them will come back online periodically. But 3:34:28.250 --> 3:34:31.369 they also will continue to face targeting from Ukrainian drone strikes. 3:34:31.470 --> 3:34:31.609 Yeah. 3:34:32.270 --> 3:34:34.610 This current phase of the war is largely focused on 3:34:34.720 --> 3:34:38.359 deep ranging drone strikes into Russian territory with retaliatory drone 3:34:38.400 --> 3:34:41.060 swarms and missile attacks from Russia into Ukraine as the 3:34:41.080 --> 3:34:44.220 front remains locked in a relatively stable position. Ukraine's hitting 3:34:44.220 --> 3:34:47.700 1500 miles beyond the line of contact now with drones, 3:34:47.780 --> 3:34:50.429 which is nuts. Like that's air power levels, right? 3:34:50.510 --> 3:34:50.770 Yeah. 3:34:50.830 --> 3:34:52.690 There's a lot of kvetching about like, oh, it's going 3:34:52.709 --> 3:34:55.170 to change warfare. We've already seen the biggest change in 3:34:55.230 --> 3:34:57.350 warfare that I think will occur in my lifetime. lifetime, 3:34:57.709 --> 3:35:02.370 maybe I'm wrong, but it's drones. Careful what you wish for. Yeah, 3:35:03.350 --> 3:35:05.310 I may be biased because a drone tried to kill 3:35:05.350 --> 3:35:08.080 me once, but I have trouble imagining something altering the 3:35:08.140 --> 3:35:10.900 experience of the regular soldier on the ground more than 3:35:10.940 --> 3:35:11.500 drones have. 3:35:11.860 --> 3:35:15.580 Robert, I'm so excited for the plague weapons. We'll see. 3:35:16.100 --> 3:35:19.720 Obviously, I'm not counting the possibility of currently illegal weapons 3:35:19.760 --> 3:35:23.160 like biologicals or nuclear weapons becoming. 3:35:22.700 --> 3:35:23.760 Regularly deployed, right? 3:35:24.820 --> 3:35:29.440 Immediately after Trump announced this deal, Ukrainian President Zelensky issued 3:35:29.520 --> 3:35:33.010 a furious statement on his nation's behalf. In Kiev, a 3:35:33.050 --> 3:35:35.590 protest gathered at the Memorial to Fallen Soldiers in the 3:35:35.629 --> 3:35:38.629 Maidan to express their anger. Within a matter of hours 3:35:38.709 --> 3:35:41.949 after Trump's announcement, Ukraine hit the loading terminal to Russia's 3:35:42.370 --> 3:35:47.509 Novoshakhtynsk oil refinery, causing a massive fire. For weeks prior, 3:35:47.629 --> 3:35:51.090 Trump had begged Zelensky to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, 3:35:51.250 --> 3:35:54.209 even as Russia has continued to hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure. 3:35:54.629 --> 3:35:57.880 When news broke of this new Ukrainian strike, Trump reacted 3:35:57.900 --> 3:36:00.480 with fury, telling Ukraine that it needed a new president 3:36:00.580 --> 3:36:03.410 and blaming Zelensky for losing 30 percent of your country. 3:36:04.810 --> 3:36:06.890 people had been killed in a war that never should 3:36:06.910 --> 3:36:07.670 have been started. 3:36:07.690 --> 3:36:10.010 I agree. Putin shouldn't have started the war. 3:36:10.410 --> 3:36:12.570 Trump has repeatedly stated his belief that it wouldn't have 3:36:12.590 --> 3:36:14.870 occurred if he'd been president when Biden was. 3:36:15.470 --> 3:36:17.630 I think that's nonsense. By the way, his number is 3:36:17.690 --> 3:36:18.170 also wrong. 3:36:18.209 --> 3:36:22.310 Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, not 30%. 3:36:22.310 --> 3:36:24.770 We don't have official death tolls for this war. We 3:36:24.830 --> 3:36:28.490 know Russia has lost at least about 500,000 soldiers killed. 3:36:28.850 --> 3:36:32.120 So it's reasonable to assume Ukrainian civilian and military fatalities 3:36:32.140 --> 3:36:35.400 would be somewhere in that ballpark. I should also note 3:36:35.420 --> 3:36:38.340 that Trump made this announcement, you know, complaining about Ukraine 3:36:38.360 --> 3:36:41.820 hitting Russian energy infrastructure and promising to buy Russian diesel 3:36:41.980 --> 3:36:45.700 directly after 20 civilians in Ukraine were killed by Russian strikes, 3:36:45.780 --> 3:36:49.890 including three children. Russia has continued to devote significant effort 3:36:49.910 --> 3:36:53.920 to striking Ukrainian civilian property and infrastructure. On October 13th 3:36:53.930 --> 3:36:57.420 and 14th, Russian strikes cut power to more than 600,000 Ukrainians. 3:36:57.860 --> 3:37:00.619 This came just four days after Trump licensed imports of 3:37:00.660 --> 3:37:04.220 Russian diesel. It also came after an energy ceasefire that 3:37:04.240 --> 3:37:07.720 Trump unilaterally announced during the weekend in response to Ukraine's 3:37:07.740 --> 3:37:09.820 strike on that binary. Trump was like, there's an energy 3:37:09.860 --> 3:37:13.030 ceasefire now. Nobody's striking. And then there were strikes. He 3:37:13.050 --> 3:37:15.550 was like, well, nobody's striking diesel. And then there were 3:37:15.590 --> 3:37:18.850 more strikes, right? And Zelensky pointed out on Monday that 3:37:18.910 --> 3:37:22.230 Russia had already violated the ceasefire. Since his announcement, Trump 3:37:22.270 --> 3:37:24.879 has escalated his efforts to defray blame for the high 3:37:24.940 --> 3:37:27.720 cost of gas. And his current strategy is blaming high 3:37:27.740 --> 3:37:30.660 diesel prices in the states on Ukrainian resistance. 3:37:30.680 --> 3:37:31.699 He is in speeches. 3:37:31.740 --> 3:37:33.560 He is saying, like, Ukraine is why your diesel is 3:37:33.580 --> 3:37:37.490 so expensive, which it's not. And again, they've been fighting 3:37:37.510 --> 3:37:41.970 in Ukraine for years. Diesel prices didn't skyrocket until Trump 3:37:41.990 --> 3:37:46.030 decided to fuck with Iran. On October 11th, Ukraine also 3:37:46.070 --> 3:37:48.990 struck a facility belonging to Yandex, which I would casually 3:37:49.030 --> 3:37:52.890 describe as Russian Google. This facility hosted a massive supercomputer, 3:37:52.930 --> 3:37:56.310 two massive supercomputers actually, used to train neural networks. It 3:37:56.350 --> 3:37:58.830 also part of like the Yandex facility there was like 3:37:58.890 --> 3:38:01.760 a military research facility. By any term, this is a 3:38:01.770 --> 3:38:03.950 valid target in war, by the way, just I wanted 3:38:04.000 --> 3:38:07.140 to make that clear. The strikes caused massive disruption to 3:38:07.200 --> 3:38:11.360 Yandex services across Russia. Yandex is an interesting company. The founder, 3:38:11.480 --> 3:38:14.340 Arkady Voloz, was not willing to fall in line and 3:38:14.360 --> 3:38:17.140 support Putin after the expanded invasion of Ukraine. He went 3:38:17.180 --> 3:38:19.330 so far as to condemn the war. This forced his 3:38:19.390 --> 3:38:21.490 exit from working in Russia, and a deal was arranged 3:38:21.530 --> 3:38:24.550 in 2024 to put Yandex under Kremlin control. This is 3:38:24.570 --> 3:38:28.630 why Arkady wins my least problematic Russian billionaire award. The 3:38:28.670 --> 3:38:31.629 strike on that Yandex hub was Ukraine's third major hit 3:38:31.730 --> 3:38:35.150 on Russian tech infrastructure in four days. It cut access 3:38:35.190 --> 3:38:38.550 to huge numbers of services for Russians and people, not 3:38:38.570 --> 3:38:40.720 just Russians, right? A number of countries that border Russia, 3:38:40.740 --> 3:38:42.879 including countries that are worried about getting invaded by Russia. 3:38:43.350 --> 3:38:46.080 Yandex is still like an important service for them. And 3:38:46.100 --> 3:38:48.160 this was not just like they lost access to Google. 3:38:48.220 --> 3:38:51.420 They lost access to like ride sharing apps and like AI, 3:38:51.700 --> 3:38:53.720 like all their AI apps. Like it did a bunch 3:38:53.760 --> 3:38:56.640 of damage to just like people being able to use 3:38:56.700 --> 3:38:58.560 the Internet the way that most people do. people are 3:38:58.600 --> 3:39:00.800 used to in the 21st century, not just in Russia, 3:39:00.840 --> 3:39:04.800 but in bordering countries. This has caused confusion online. In 3:39:04.820 --> 3:39:07.280 the immediate wake of the strikes, reports began to spread 3:39:07.340 --> 3:39:10.180 that Yandex going down had cut bot traffic to huge 3:39:10.260 --> 3:39:13.640 portions of the Internet. That is objectively true. What bot 3:39:13.680 --> 3:39:17.980 traffic means is often misinterpreted. Specific claims were made that 3:39:18.040 --> 3:39:21.070 traffic had plunged for off day, the German far right 3:39:21.100 --> 3:39:24.650 party that like their people commenting and like pro off 3:39:24.670 --> 3:39:27.029 day boards and stuff had like fallen off a cliff. 3:39:27.370 --> 3:39:30.670 and that the conservative subreddit was also down, that there 3:39:30.690 --> 3:39:34.800 were no more Magabots online, that the Russian bots had declined. 3:39:35.240 --> 3:39:37.220 And evidence for these claims was posted in the form 3:39:37.260 --> 3:39:40.730 of cloud flare graphs that purported to show plunging bot activity. 3:39:41.190 --> 3:39:41.510 And again. 3:39:42.270 --> 3:39:43.850 some of those graphs were real, some of them weren't. 3:39:43.890 --> 3:39:47.330 There is plunging bot activity. The problem is that, and 3:39:47.370 --> 3:39:49.390 I made a joking comment about like, this is why 3:39:49.410 --> 3:39:52.709 we should keep airstriking data centers and then tried to 3:39:52.750 --> 3:39:55.740 follow it up by claiming like, look guys, no one 3:39:55.760 --> 3:39:58.779 has to abide by the truth in politics anymore. 3:39:58.820 --> 3:40:00.039 Like, why should we, right? 3:40:00.320 --> 3:40:02.940 But the reality of the situation is that bot traffic 3:40:03.060 --> 3:40:07.080 did drop precipitously as a result of this attack. Cloudflare 3:40:07.120 --> 3:40:10.530 reported that Yandex bot traffic is like 0.4% of the 3:40:10.570 --> 3:40:13.490 max number of HTTP requests that had been reported over 3:40:13.530 --> 3:40:15.840 the prior two weeks. But that doesn't mean there are 3:40:15.940 --> 3:40:19.910 fewer Russian bot accounts on the internet, right? I'll refer 3:40:19.970 --> 3:40:22.590 to an analysis by Brandon Beeb that he put together 3:40:22.629 --> 3:40:24.610 on his Substack that does a good job of explaining 3:40:24.660 --> 3:40:27.760 the disconnect in many people's understandings. The bots that dropped 3:40:27.800 --> 3:40:31.360 are mostly Yandex's own search engine crawler. They aren't troll accounts. 3:40:31.500 --> 3:40:35.000 No primary data shows that Russian social media bots went offline. 3:40:35.360 --> 3:40:38.240 None shows that Engagement Reform UK, The Off Day, or 3:40:38.280 --> 3:40:40.080 MAGA accounts fell because of the strikes. 3:40:40.520 --> 3:40:41.280 Here's what matters. 3:40:41.400 --> 3:40:44.680 In Cloudflare's language, a bot is any automated web request. 3:40:44.860 --> 3:40:48.080 Nearly all automated traffic from Yandex's network is Yandex bot. 3:40:48.140 --> 3:40:50.779 It's search crawler, which is Russia's version of Google bot. 3:40:51.060 --> 3:40:51.240 Right. 3:40:51.560 --> 3:40:55.080 So that's what has declined. Now, while the people who 3:40:55.120 --> 3:40:57.459 are saying like, no, it's wrong that like Russian bot. 3:40:58.120 --> 3:41:01.020 you know, influence operations collapse as a result of these strikes. 3:41:01.420 --> 3:41:03.000 That's also led some people to say, like, there's been 3:41:03.060 --> 3:41:05.700 no impact in Russia's influence operations as a result of 3:41:05.720 --> 3:41:08.250 these strikes. I can't imagine that's true. It's just not 3:41:08.290 --> 3:41:11.030 true in the way people online assumed it is, right? Like, 3:41:11.350 --> 3:41:14.970 they lost a massive access to a massive supercomputer center 3:41:15.010 --> 3:41:18.180 that the military used, right? This has certainly done some 3:41:18.200 --> 3:41:22.620 damage of damage. It certainly frustrated some to some degree, 3:41:22.720 --> 3:41:25.039 some of the shit that the Russian government does online. 3:41:25.420 --> 3:41:28.030 It just hasn't gotten rid of all of the bot 3:41:28.110 --> 3:41:30.930 accounts because that's just like not how any of this works. 3:41:31.190 --> 3:41:32.870 No, like there's not like a Death Star you can 3:41:32.890 --> 3:41:35.640 blow up that like make Russian influence operation go away. 3:41:35.760 --> 3:41:36.519 Like, no, no. 3:41:37.400 --> 3:41:40.160 It's bad for Russia that these got struck, right? They 3:41:40.200 --> 3:41:41.210 prefer that not happen. 3:41:41.629 --> 3:41:45.270 And that will presumably have impacts that are broader ranging 3:41:45.310 --> 3:41:47.650 and that are probably kind of obscure to us on 3:41:47.950 --> 3:41:50.160 a number of their operations. But it's not as simple 3:41:50.180 --> 3:41:52.019 as all of the bots went away. That's just not 3:41:52.060 --> 3:41:52.519 what happened. 3:41:53.100 --> 3:41:55.240 Interesting. Interesting and informative. 3:41:56.300 --> 3:41:59.920 So let's close with a segment I am calling Dispatches 3:41:59.959 --> 3:42:03.619 from a World in Revolt with the starting claim that, yeah, 3:42:03.660 --> 3:42:06.460 we're kind of back, by which I mean we're kind 3:42:06.500 --> 3:42:09.230 of back in what appears to be at least the 3:42:09.260 --> 3:42:12.690 beginning of another global era of mass protests along the 3:42:12.730 --> 3:42:17.379 lines of sort of 2011 or 2019, 2020. We have 3:42:17.420 --> 3:42:19.160 talked about some of these protests on the show. We're 3:42:19.200 --> 3:42:22.360 going to be going through a few areas that have 3:42:22.379 --> 3:42:25.620 seen large protests here. Today, we are mostly going to 3:42:25.640 --> 3:42:29.300 be focusing on India. Now, previously on the show, we've 3:42:29.340 --> 3:42:32.280 talked about the massive wave of student protests in India 3:42:32.340 --> 3:42:35.359 under the banner of the meme Cockroach Janta Party, which 3:42:35.420 --> 3:42:38.880 is named after a Supreme Court justice calling unemployed youths 3:42:38.920 --> 3:42:41.810 their cockroaches. So it's a play on the BJP. It's 3:42:41.840 --> 3:42:45.230 like the BJP, but it's the CJP because it's cockroaches. Okay, 3:42:45.410 --> 3:42:48.720 with that out of the way, Those original protests from 3:42:48.740 --> 3:42:51.340 a few months ago have sort of won. The CJP 3:42:51.459 --> 3:42:54.610 declared victory recently after forcing the resignation of the Minister 3:42:54.629 --> 3:43:01.480 of Education, after government officials leaked the answers to standardized tests. But, comma, 3:43:02.620 --> 3:43:06.129 Protests in India have continued, and they have continued over 3:43:06.190 --> 3:43:10.750 the BJP's attempt to remove 130 million people from the 3:43:10.810 --> 3:43:11.410 voting rolls. 3:43:12.030 --> 3:43:15.530 Now, Mia, I've never done a number before. Is that 3:43:15.650 --> 3:43:16.510 a lot of people? 3:43:17.459 --> 3:43:19.320 That would be the 12th largest country on Earth. That 3:43:19.379 --> 3:43:22.560 is larger than the population of Japan. It is slightly, 3:43:23.020 --> 3:43:26.459 slightly less than the population of Mexico that they are 3:43:26.480 --> 3:43:29.650 trying to strip from the voting rolls. The rhetoric coming 3:43:29.670 --> 3:43:31.530 out of the BJP is in a lot of ways, 3:43:31.570 --> 3:43:34.290 very similar to the rhetoric you see from fascist parties 3:43:34.330 --> 3:43:38.629 around the world. They're screaming about like illegal Muslim aliens 3:43:38.670 --> 3:43:42.590 casting fake votes. And so like, basically they're doing on 3:43:42.629 --> 3:43:45.580 the scale of 130 million people, a thing that like 3:43:46.100 --> 3:43:47.400 you see in the U S where they go through 3:43:47.420 --> 3:43:49.740 the voting rolls and like purge everyone with a nonwhite name. 3:43:49.800 --> 3:43:51.680 And here it's like, yeah, they're purging people with Muslim 3:43:51.720 --> 3:43:55.660 names at the scale of the 12th largest country on earth. 3:43:56.280 --> 3:44:00.260 So yeah, In response to this, India's, I would call 3:44:00.280 --> 3:44:05.690 them largely feckless opposition parties, actually finally did something and 3:44:05.810 --> 3:44:09.189 they deployed their... So Congress, which is like the main INC, 3:44:09.930 --> 3:44:13.880 are India's main opposition party. They are the party that 3:44:14.180 --> 3:44:17.880 is like the party that did Indian independence. And they 3:44:17.900 --> 3:44:20.680 have connected their legacy to Gandhi. And so they deployed 3:44:20.720 --> 3:44:23.320 their one strategy, which is throwing Gandhi's at the problem. 3:44:24.379 --> 3:44:27.540 So they staged a protest outside of the Electoral Commission. 3:44:27.560 --> 3:44:30.900 That's not honestly an enjoyable mental image. I'm just savoring that. 3:44:30.820 --> 3:44:33.679 For a second. Literally, physically, it is what they're doing. 3:44:33.720 --> 3:44:38.450 They threw Raul Gandhi. How many Gandhis we got? A lot. 3:44:38.750 --> 3:44:41.230 They have a lot of Gandhi descendants. They got a 3:44:41.350 --> 3:44:43.170 lot of his family tree down there. Pick on the 3:44:43.190 --> 3:44:45.570 ground the Gandhis are these days. That's good to know. 3:44:46.110 --> 3:44:49.930 Yeah, so Rahul Gandhi and his sister, who's also in 3:44:49.950 --> 3:44:51.450 the party and is like a high ranking party official, 3:44:51.510 --> 3:44:54.600 Rahul Gandhi is like the opposition leader. They went and 3:44:54.640 --> 3:44:57.060 were nominally they were trying to like they went to 3:44:57.080 --> 3:44:58.920 the Electoral Commission. We're trying to talk to the guy 3:44:58.940 --> 3:45:01.640 who's in charge of the Electoral Commission. And they got 3:45:01.680 --> 3:45:04.310 arrested like multiple times. There's a bunch of scenes of 3:45:04.390 --> 3:45:06.850 like Rahul Gandhi trying to like crawl out of a 3:45:07.050 --> 3:45:09.890 bus that he was being held. This is like this 3:45:09.910 --> 3:45:11.990 was like a week ago Wednesday. 3:45:12.010 --> 3:45:12.090 Yeah. 3:45:12.709 --> 3:45:16.090 Yeah, on October 7th, or maybe it was October 6th 3:45:16.110 --> 3:45:18.490 or 7th. Basically, it was last week from when we 3:45:18.530 --> 3:45:22.420 were recording this. And this has led to a bunch 3:45:22.700 --> 3:45:26.620 more protests, including the CJP, like the cockroach party, like 3:45:26.680 --> 3:45:30.820 going out against these electoral purges. But it's also led 3:45:30.920 --> 3:45:33.680 to a sort of astonishing level of repression in India, 3:45:34.459 --> 3:45:37.900 and particularly in the capital of New Delhi. that has 3:45:37.980 --> 3:45:42.220 turned it over over the last weekend into effectively a 3:45:42.959 --> 3:45:47.550 fairly overt police state. On Saturday, Indian police arrested the 3:45:47.590 --> 3:45:50.510 founder of the cockroach party as an attempt to try 3:45:50.530 --> 3:45:53.150 to stop the protest. There was a huge militarized police 3:45:53.170 --> 3:45:56.570 deployment in New Delhi itself trying to stop anyone from 3:45:56.590 --> 3:45:58.670 being able to assemble and form protests in the first place. 3:45:58.690 --> 3:46:02.210 They've also shut down the mile long road to Junter Munter, 3:46:02.230 --> 3:46:06.840 which is basically there's a road there that has been 3:46:06.860 --> 3:46:09.320 a massive site of protests since like the 90s. Basically, 3:46:09.340 --> 3:46:12.140 whenever someone's doing a protest in the Capitol, you show 3:46:12.140 --> 3:46:14.590 up here and you do a protest on the street 3:46:14.590 --> 3:46:17.330 and you like occupy the street for a while. And 3:46:17.330 --> 3:46:19.250 this was also a huge hub of of the car 3:46:19.270 --> 3:46:22.810 crash movement was a giant sit in here. And like 3:46:22.850 --> 3:46:25.270 the entire street has been declared like not a valid 3:46:25.330 --> 3:46:28.320 site of protest by the police and the police have 3:46:28.330 --> 3:46:30.560 been trying to funnel protesters into other sites around the 3:46:30.590 --> 3:46:32.600 city that are like significantly further from the center of 3:46:32.640 --> 3:46:33.500 the city, man. 3:46:34.330 --> 3:46:39.429 Sometimes the just international like reflexive solidarity between police officers 3:46:39.550 --> 3:46:40.510 is just really beautiful. 3:46:40.690 --> 3:46:43.610 You know, it's always the same the same move. No, no, no. 3:46:43.629 --> 3:46:45.850 You can't do it there, though. Can't do it there. Sorry. 3:46:45.910 --> 3:46:49.030 This is just free speech zones. Sorry. 3:46:49.080 --> 3:46:49.300 Sorry. 3:46:49.320 --> 3:46:51.140 This is not a free speech zone. Yeah, it's a 3:46:51.160 --> 3:46:53.060 free speech zone. Yeah, they always do this like, oh, 3:46:53.080 --> 3:46:55.500 but there. No, it's fine what you're doing, but not there. 3:46:55.520 --> 3:46:55.600 Yeah. 3:46:56.040 --> 3:46:56.360 Yeah. 3:46:57.990 --> 3:47:00.109 Like over the weekend, there were these massive attempts to 3:47:00.129 --> 3:47:02.410 stop the protests, and that did kind of cut down 3:47:02.470 --> 3:47:05.880 on numbers. But on Monday the 12th, the Congress party, 3:47:06.190 --> 3:47:09.260 the terminology is mildly confusing to Americans. But yeah, like 3:47:09.560 --> 3:47:13.500 a lot of like Congress political leaders and a bunch 3:47:13.520 --> 3:47:15.519 of protesters were able to take the streets again on Monday. 3:47:16.020 --> 3:47:19.220 On Tuesday, cockroach protest leaders like tried to retake that 3:47:19.260 --> 3:47:21.960 street and a bunch of their leaders got arrested after 3:47:22.020 --> 3:47:25.379 trying to take the main square again. The protests do 3:47:25.440 --> 3:47:28.060 not seem to be slowing down as of now. Congress 3:47:28.080 --> 3:47:29.879 has been trying to turn this into a sort of 3:47:29.920 --> 3:47:34.150 sustained attempt to challenge Modi's rule. I think even as 3:47:34.200 --> 3:47:37.269 he's trying to purge 130 million people from the voting rolls, 3:47:37.310 --> 3:47:40.769 which would be the end of anything even remotely democratic 3:47:40.790 --> 3:47:44.010 in the Indian system, this is a real moment of 3:47:44.030 --> 3:47:47.190 weakness for him. And the escalation of these protests has 3:47:47.250 --> 3:47:50.260 been very damaging for the regime, even after they were 3:47:50.360 --> 3:47:54.480 kind of able to like slow down and stop the 3:47:54.540 --> 3:47:59.570 original cockroach protests. Now that's been reignited and Congress has 3:47:59.610 --> 3:48:01.690 been throwing their base into it. So we're going to 3:48:01.709 --> 3:48:05.800 continue to fill you in on what's going on there. 3:48:06.590 --> 3:48:10.070 Do they have any specific demands when it comes to 3:48:10.350 --> 3:48:11.770 the voter roll purchase? 3:48:12.150 --> 3:48:16.160 Yeah, the main one, obviously, they want everyone put back 3:48:16.280 --> 3:48:18.500 in and they want the chief of the electoral commission 3:48:18.520 --> 3:48:18.940 to resign. 3:48:19.340 --> 3:48:22.840 Okay. Those are the demands that everyone seems to agree to, basically. 3:48:23.360 --> 3:48:30.310 Congress and the cockroach protesters aren't... one-to-one overlapping political bases, right? So, 3:48:30.410 --> 3:48:33.910 you know, it's a bit complicated there. But yeah, those 3:48:33.950 --> 3:48:37.150 are the main demands that we've seen so far. I 3:48:37.170 --> 3:48:42.510 want to turn to Europe, where we've also seen continuations of, well, 3:48:42.530 --> 3:48:45.629 both the protests in France and Spain, there were large 3:48:45.930 --> 3:48:49.750 French student protests over the weekend. I've seen numbers that 3:48:49.770 --> 3:48:51.310 suggest it was down to about 160,000, down from like 3:48:51.310 --> 3:48:56.780 300,000 the week before. You know, and obviously the police 3:48:56.800 --> 3:49:00.180 have continued to attack student protesters. Things are still really bleak. 3:49:00.200 --> 3:49:03.679 There's like a horrifying picture of like a kid getting 3:49:03.820 --> 3:49:05.780 crushed by a gate that a bunch of like a 3:49:05.920 --> 3:49:08.600 giant metal gate that a bunch of cops are pushing. Yeah, 3:49:08.620 --> 3:49:11.420 so they're still doing absolutely horrific stuff there. We did 3:49:11.480 --> 3:49:16.020 a larger episode about this earlier this week. Now, the 3:49:16.040 --> 3:49:19.440 student protests have also begun to spread, although kind of 3:49:19.480 --> 3:49:22.700 in small forms as of this week. We've seen versions 3:49:22.760 --> 3:49:26.920 of them break out in Greece, Albania and Belgium. Greek protesters, 3:49:26.940 --> 3:49:29.870 student protesters put up tents in Stigmata Square, which is 3:49:29.890 --> 3:49:32.230 another historic protest site that was, I mean, it's been 3:49:32.250 --> 3:49:36.070 the core of a hundred million protests, but it's notably 3:49:36.130 --> 3:49:37.710 was one of the places that was the core of 3:49:37.730 --> 3:49:40.890 the protest in 2011, which, you know, I think links 3:49:40.950 --> 3:49:43.320 back in a lot of ways to the ways that 3:49:43.330 --> 3:49:45.920 the protests in Spain have been reoccupying a lot of 3:49:46.460 --> 3:49:51.780 the like 2011 historic protest sites. The Albanian ones, I think, 3:49:51.840 --> 3:49:58.320 have been pretty small so far. of multiple fairly large 3:49:58.350 --> 3:50:00.980 protests going on. There was a student protest on Monday, 3:50:01.020 --> 3:50:03.720 but then also earlier in like last week, there was 3:50:03.760 --> 3:50:06.500 a giant anti-austerity protest. There's about like 10,000, well, it's 3:50:06.520 --> 3:50:09.800 about like 10,000 people. Pretty large, much smaller than the 3:50:10.600 --> 3:50:15.370 sort of full-scale stuff in France and Spain, but also, yeah, 3:50:15.470 --> 3:50:19.160 similar cops have been attacking them fairly significantly. The cops 3:50:19.200 --> 3:50:22.150 arrested 10 people, like nine of whom are minors. So 3:50:22.360 --> 3:50:25.350 the student protests have a very similar sort of composition 3:50:25.410 --> 3:50:27.030 of like, it's like these high school students going into 3:50:27.070 --> 3:50:31.290 revolt that you see in France. Meanwhile, in Spain, there 3:50:31.310 --> 3:50:35.070 was like another massive round of the giant protest they've 3:50:35.090 --> 3:50:36.950 been having. A bunch of the occupations are still going. 3:50:36.990 --> 3:50:39.490 We're probably going to talk to James next week a 3:50:39.530 --> 3:50:41.680 bit more in detail about what's been happening there. I 3:50:42.500 --> 3:50:45.040 think it's also fairly notable that there's been a pretty 3:50:45.060 --> 3:50:49.960 significant attempt to by the... Okay, so this is where 3:50:49.980 --> 3:50:53.540 we have to make a distinction between socialist party and socialist. 3:50:54.220 --> 3:50:58.310 The socialist party government of Pedro Sanchez, with the caveat 3:50:58.350 --> 3:51:01.630 that in Spain, the socialist party has been kind of 3:51:01.670 --> 3:51:07.510 the equivalent of the Democrats for many, many, many years now. 3:51:07.530 --> 3:51:09.090 The socialist party was one of the two parties that 3:51:09.690 --> 3:51:12.260 the protests in 2011 were against, which led to the 3:51:12.280 --> 3:51:13.140 formation of Podemos. 3:51:13.180 --> 3:51:14.180 That's a whole other story. 3:51:15.360 --> 3:51:17.900 But Pedro Sanchez has been trying to use these protests 3:51:17.940 --> 3:51:20.360 to save his government, even though it has also been 3:51:20.420 --> 3:51:26.170 his government that has been presiding over the housing crisis 3:51:26.190 --> 3:51:30.070 and these evictions. He's been attempting to co-opt the protests 3:51:30.110 --> 3:51:34.910 in order to save his flagging electoral things, which obviously, yeah, 3:51:34.930 --> 3:51:36.530 it would be worse if the far right took power, 3:51:36.570 --> 3:51:39.900 and that's kind of what things have been looking towards. Yeah, 3:51:39.920 --> 3:51:44.840 because the far right killed two pro-tenant bills in parliament 3:51:45.180 --> 3:51:47.380 like earlier this month yeah and then he's kind of 3:51:47.460 --> 3:51:50.100 used that and the protests yep to call for an 3:51:50.140 --> 3:51:52.840 election yeah and but this has also been paired with 3:51:52.880 --> 3:51:55.720 attempts to sort of like directly co-opt the protests themselves 3:51:55.820 --> 3:51:58.380 which there's been a whole bunch of stuff around that 3:51:58.400 --> 3:51:59.940 there that we can get into more detail with later 3:52:00.040 --> 3:52:03.640 but that's a dynamic that we're going to see frequently 3:52:03.720 --> 3:52:08.890 here i mean you don't often get one as blatant 3:52:09.150 --> 3:52:11.030 as the like hey this is the government that did 3:52:11.050 --> 3:52:12.790 this that's like now trying to use your movement to 3:52:12.810 --> 3:52:16.480 do something but Yeah, this is a very common dynamic 3:52:16.800 --> 3:52:19.780 in protests like this. And yeah, we're going to be 3:52:19.820 --> 3:52:22.600 seeing it more and more as protests continue. And we 3:52:22.620 --> 3:52:26.500 will let you know what other places start having mass protests. 3:52:26.680 --> 3:52:29.220 I'm just going to briefly note there were some also 3:52:29.260 --> 3:52:32.340 education protests a little bit before this in Chile. There's 3:52:32.360 --> 3:52:35.900 been anti-Bolsonaro protests happening all over Brazil. But yeah, we 3:52:35.920 --> 3:52:39.300 will keep you updated as we get more really large 3:52:39.680 --> 3:52:40.320 protest waves. 3:52:41.560 --> 3:52:44.220 Yeah. All right. That does it for us here at 3:52:44.360 --> 3:52:47.400 It Could Happen Here. If you want to send James 3:52:47.440 --> 3:52:51.520 a marketing email, you can do so at coolzontips at proton.me. 3:52:51.540 --> 3:52:52.700 He will kill you. 3:52:52.720 --> 3:52:56.560 He will hunt you down with predator vision. Do not 3:52:56.580 --> 3:52:58.200 send marketing emails to him. 3:52:58.220 --> 3:53:02.780 That email is actually for news-related tips and information. Put 3:53:02.800 --> 3:53:05.640 a trans girl on your couch. 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