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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action boss.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go in front of the throwing in so

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Speaker 2: spect we're sitting it to cash TOUCHI.

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Speaker 1: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to

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Speaker 3: pass and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: median and research director Evan Abrams, and I am joined

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Speaker 2: as always by the one, the only, the great, Brandon Anderson. Brandon,

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Speaker 2: what's going on? How you doing? Before we get this rolling.

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Speaker 3: Man hock of a day of football? I think until

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Speaker 3: we got the the Snoozer Blizzard game in the evening,

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Speaker 3: we had I think twelve out of thirteen games so

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Speaker 3: far counting the Thanksgiving Black Fridays, that we're within the

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Speaker 3: one score. I'm sure you had that stat too. Not

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Speaker 3: great football necessarily, but close football, watchable football with weird endings.

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Speaker 3: Two witching hours on the Red Zone channel today, lots

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Speaker 3: of fun stuff to talk about.

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Speaker 2: At this point, all we can ask for is close,

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Speaker 2: fun games. So I think we need one more close

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Speaker 2: game on Monday Night. Football to actually set a record.

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Speaker 2: So hope we could talk about that a little bit later,

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Speaker 2: but honestly, let's just start with the best game of

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Speaker 2: the day, hands down. It was a game we were

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Speaker 2: all waiting for. And no it's not Sunday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: It was Eagles at Ravens. Eagles win the game twenty

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Speaker 2: four to nineteen. They covers three point underdogs, the total

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Speaker 2: goes under fifty. I mean, the way this started was

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Speaker 2: like any other typical Eagle game. Another game, another scoreless

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Speaker 2: first quarter for Philly. They're now two to ten against

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Speaker 2: a first quarter spread this year, worst mark in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Everyone knows they started this season scoreless basically through I

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Speaker 2: don't remember what it was, seven straight games or something

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Speaker 2: like that, if not more. Now, of course, let's continue

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Speaker 2: with the storyline here. They scored fourteen in the second quarter,

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Speaker 2: they led fourteen twelve a half, and of course Philly

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Speaker 2: is actually ten and two against the second quarter spread

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Speaker 2: this year, so starting slow, figuring it out before the half,

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Speaker 2: and basically it just doesn't matter since they've been rolling

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Speaker 2: this year. But it is interesting that that slow starts

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Speaker 2: kind of be a patent padded in thing from them

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Speaker 2: for Philadelphia. So hopefully that doesn't continue in future weeks.

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Speaker 2: But again, they've got Carolina next week, so maybe that

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Speaker 2: doesn't matter too much. Again keep rolling here, the story

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Speaker 2: also was Justin Tucker, right, I mean, other than what

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Speaker 2: was going on in the game him, every time he

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Speaker 2: came out there to kick a field goal, everyone was

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Speaker 2: holding their breath. I mean, even first half totals. He

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Speaker 2: obviously hits the field goal before the half to ruin

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Speaker 2: the first half total, then missing everything in the second

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Speaker 2: half and going on with he has eight missed field

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Speaker 2: goals already this season, and it's just I mean, that's

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Speaker 2: something we could talk about another time. And John Harbaugh

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Speaker 2: said after the game he's sticking with him. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he said it would be a mistake to get rid

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Speaker 2: of Justin Tucker at this point. And hopefully nobody will

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Speaker 2: be retweeting that in the playoffs when it comes back

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Speaker 2: to potentially bite them. But listen, aside from that, you

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Speaker 2: get to the fourth quarter and Saquon Barkley just what

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Speaker 2: just does what Saquon Barkley does. I mean, he absolutely

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Speaker 2: took over this game and made it impossible for Baltimore

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Speaker 2: to really get any type of rhythm. But Here's what

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Speaker 2: I really want to focus on. Ravens at home had

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Speaker 2: zero turnovers and one hundred and fifty plus yards in

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Speaker 2: that spot. Harbor was fifty two and eight straight up

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Speaker 2: in his career prior to tonight. Plus the Ravens had

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Speaker 2: more third down conversions, more time in possession, and fewer

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Speaker 2: penalties and still lost his games going under twenty points

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Speaker 2: at home. So I don't necessarily look at this like,

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Speaker 2: oh my god, what happened to the Ravens. I think

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Speaker 2: maybe Phillies defense a little bit underrated, and I think

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Speaker 2: Baltimore just a bad game that won two flips either

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Speaker 2: way Tucker hits his field goals. We're looking at this

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Speaker 2: completely differently, So I don't necessarily think that this is

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Speaker 2: a bad sign for Baltimore. But I'll give you a

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Speaker 2: few stats before I toss it to you. So the

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Speaker 2: Ravens this season are actually now zero and three against

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Speaker 2: the spread, though on short rest. Their defense has allowed

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Speaker 2: one hundred and three points in those three games. Lamar

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Speaker 2: nine and oh straight up at home at minus three

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Speaker 2: or lesser an underdog that broken today, So no longer

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Speaker 2: perfect in that spot. And from the Eagles point of view,

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Speaker 2: AJ Brown was great, so was A Flowers. But the

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Speaker 2: Eagles now nine and oh straight up with AJ Brown

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Speaker 2: this year, they're thirty six and ten with A Jason's

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Speaker 2: they acquired him, and Eagles maybe shouldn't have been a

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Speaker 2: full three here. They are a three and oh straight

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Speaker 2: up as underdogs as well, And I mean just from

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts' point of view, because he's been absolutely fantastic

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Speaker 2: during their eight game win streak. He's fourth and success

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Speaker 2: rate since Week six, he's first a completion percentage over expected,

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Speaker 2: while being also top ten in average depth of target,

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Speaker 2: which those two together really really impressive. And of course

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Speaker 2: twenty plus touchdowns I believe in one interception in there

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Speaker 2: during that stretch. Just great, great football, Brad. What'd you

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Speaker 2: see here? What's your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Really hard to figure out what to do with

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Speaker 3: this one. So the Ravens are actually up nine to

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Speaker 3: nothing early on nine, not ten because Justin Tucker missed

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Speaker 3: the extra point, but they scored a garbage time touchdown

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Speaker 3: with what like nine seconds left or something. Take that away.

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Speaker 3: You're down to twelve. That means only three other points

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Speaker 3: the terrorist of the game from that nine to nothing

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Speaker 3: lead early. That's weird. This is the number one offense

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Speaker 3: by DVOA and it's number one by like margin in

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Speaker 3: number one, ranking up there historically with great offense. And

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Speaker 3: I know the Eagles defense has been really good, but man,

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Speaker 3: that that is a really impressive performance or depressive performance,

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Speaker 3: depending on your perspective. Here, justin Tucker missed the exit point.

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Speaker 3: Miss two field goals. That's a touchdown. That's seven points

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Speaker 3: in a five point loss. You said it. Eight missed

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Speaker 3: field goals already. He entered the season the most accurate

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Speaker 3: kicker in NFL history, ninety point two percent accuracy for

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Speaker 3: his career. He's at seventy percent this season. Eight misses already.

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Speaker 3: Just yeah, it hurts to watch. Honestly, It's like old

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Speaker 3: Yeller status out there, just like we gotta we gotta

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Speaker 3: all move on from this. I was ready to come

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Speaker 3: in and just bury the Ravens. But I think you're right.

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Speaker 3: I think the Ravens, honestly, by the metrics, were the

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Speaker 3: better team. They just suddenly can't convert in the red zone.

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Speaker 3: They keep signing for field goals. They're missing half the

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Speaker 3: field goals now. But if you look at it, we'll

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Speaker 3: get to the rest of the games. Pittsburgh gets their

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Speaker 3: big when they're nine to three, Baltimore is eight and five.

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Speaker 3: We'll come back to MVP. Five losses, you're out of MVP.

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Speaker 3: I think the Lamar MVP campaign ended today if it

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Speaker 3: was still out there. Baltimore goes into the bye week.

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Speaker 3: Now they play at the Giants home for the Steelers.

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Speaker 3: They gotta have that one because the Steelers won the

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Speaker 3: first one at Houston. I think it's not on Christmas,

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Speaker 3: and then Browns to close out. They will be favored

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Speaker 3: in all those games. I think even at Houston, in

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Speaker 3: all likelihood, they could win out and I think if

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Speaker 3: they do, they probably still take the division, because the

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Speaker 3: Steelers still have at Philly, at Baltimore, Kansas City all

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Speaker 3: in a row, plus since he in Week eighteen, which

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Speaker 3: since he's not going to be competing for anything anymore,

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Speaker 3: but they certainly could beat you if you leave the

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Speaker 3: door open. So I think it's entirely possible and maybe

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Speaker 3: even still likely, that the Ravens are the right team

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Speaker 3: in the division here. You're probably going to be the

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Speaker 3: four seed at this point, maybe the three. But I

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Speaker 3: don't know that this necessarily killed them off from where

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Speaker 3: they're hoping to be. I think he just further solidified

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Speaker 3: them kind of being middle of the pack. AFC It's

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Speaker 3: chief Spills at the top, then Steelers, Texans, Ravens in

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Speaker 3: some order. I think this kind of stuck things in

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Speaker 3: that order going forward.

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Speaker 2: Call me crazy, but even after the playoffs last year,

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Speaker 2: I don't necessarily mind the Ravens having to go on

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Speaker 2: the road in the playoffs. I might actually prefer it,

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Speaker 2: depending on what the spread will be in those games

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Speaker 2: and the run game with Henry. I don't think it's

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Speaker 2: a super big issue. But all right, let's keep rolling here.

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Speaker 2: We got a lot of games, so let's go to listen.

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Speaker 2: This is what you put as the second best game

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Speaker 2: of the day, So I'm just gonna allow you to

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Speaker 2: kind of go with it here. Seattle, let the Jets.

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Speaker 2: Seattle wins twenty six to twenty one as a one

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Speaker 2: and a half point road dog, which is very important

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Speaker 2: because there's lots of movement right before kickoff, which tends

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Speaker 2: to happen with the Jets. I believe they've gotten the

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Speaker 2: steam the last eight weeks, and they are one in

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Speaker 2: seven in those games, but the total goes over forty

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Speaker 2: one and a half here the stat the Jets of

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Speaker 2: the first team in the Super Bowl era to be

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Speaker 2: favored in nine of their first twelve games and be

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Speaker 2: three or nine and worse. That's from ESPN Stats and Info.

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Speaker 2: Today was there six straight game as a favorite? All

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Speaker 2: I gotta say is I just think we're done here.

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Speaker 3: I mean I thought we were, But how many times

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Speaker 3: have we been done here with the Jets? And we

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Speaker 3: keep being done here because they keep giving them favorites again,

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Speaker 3: Like I struggled to figure out, Okay, what order we

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Speaker 3: put the Neon game? Yeah, that the one PM games

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Speaker 3: for the East Coast folks. This game to me because

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Speaker 3: of like, if you're following the podcast, I'm all in

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Speaker 3: on the Seattle futures again. Seattle Island. I got the

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Speaker 3: the over, I got the division like four times now,

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Speaker 3: I got the playoff odds and it was on this

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Speaker 3: game at the hot read man. I needed this game.

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Speaker 3: We needed this game listeners, and it was rough. Seattle

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Speaker 3: special teams tried so hard to give the game away.

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Speaker 3: Seattle fumbled three straight kickoffs in the first half, three

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Speaker 3: straight kickoffs, and they gave up a kickoff touchdown still

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Speaker 3: on the first half. So the Sea's defense was like, oh,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna fumble every kickoff. I have an idea. After

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Speaker 3: those three consecutive kickoff fumbles, they didn't allow any more

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Speaker 3: kickoffs again. The third one of those three came five

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Speaker 3: minutes into the second quarter. The Jets didn't kick off

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Speaker 3: again because they got the ball in the second half,

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Speaker 3: and they did not score another point after that. So

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Speaker 3: here's the stage. It's twenty one to seven. Jets. They're up.

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Speaker 3: They got the kickoff return touchdown, they got the short

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Speaker 3: field touchdown off one of the fumbles. They have the

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Speaker 3: ball again in the red zone off another fumble on

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Speaker 3: the kickoff, and Leonard Williams, former Jet, Leonard Williams monster game.

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Speaker 3: Two sacks, three TFLs, two QB hits, pass defense and

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Speaker 3: then this play tips the ball dropping back in coverage

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Speaker 3: because Mike McDonald of course tips it, catches it, rumbles,

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Speaker 3: and I do mean rumlin, this is a big dude

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Speaker 3: against this old team all the way down the field,

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Speaker 3: like ninety five plus yards for the touchdown. Twenty one

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Speaker 3: to seven could have been twenty eight to seven instead

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Speaker 3: twenty one. Third team. They did miss the extra point,

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Speaker 3: but to me, somebody living and dying on Seattle games.

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Speaker 3: It felt like it saved the season. Yet again, we're

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Speaker 3: there a lot with Seattle as well. I must admit Seattle,

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Speaker 3: it felt like they had like seven hundred thirty and

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Speaker 3: one and fourth in the one. This team cannot block

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Speaker 3: to save its life. They cannot convert a one yard

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Speaker 3: play to save its life. We get at one point,

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Speaker 3: like a fourth and one, fourth and goal in the one,

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Speaker 3: and somehow that play turns into a pass play that

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Speaker 3: Gino Smith takes like an eighteen yard sack on So

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Speaker 3: you give up even the advantage of getting stuffed at

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Speaker 3: the one is brutal out here, but Seattle survives. They

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Speaker 3: gave up that early Jets touchdown, not the short field one,

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Speaker 3: but they gave up an eleven play eighty yard touchdown.

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Speaker 3: After that, the Jets the rest of the game forty

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Speaker 3: eight plays for one hundred and seventy five yards three

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Speaker 3: point six yards of play. This Seattle defense is legit.

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Speaker 3: And this is the fourth straight week out of the

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Speaker 3: bye week that they've been really good. They've won three

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Speaker 3: games in a row. They are now up a full

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Speaker 3: game in the division. With that Arizona loss. It was

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Speaker 3: a tense few minutes, but they're up a full game.

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Speaker 3: San Francisco looks probably out of it. We'll get to them.

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Speaker 3: As for the Jets, they have now lost eight of nine,

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Speaker 3: six by a one scare. Aaron Rodgers looks ready to

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Speaker 3: be out of here, and quite frankly, I'm ready for

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Speaker 3: him to be out of here too.

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Speaker 2: The Seattle thing is just crazy. They get Arizona next week.

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Speaker 2: They're two and a half point underdogs in Arizona, which

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Speaker 2: obviously now a big game. It's just fascinating. Gino twelve interceptions,

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Speaker 2: thirteen touchdowns and Seattle just keeps figuring out away. And

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Speaker 2: for anyone who didn't check out, you gotta see Genosmiths

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Speaker 2: tweet after the game, just completely trolling. Absolute revenge game

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Speaker 2: here for the Seahawks. So fantastic. All right, let's keep rolling.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Pittsburgh, the Voodoo wins forty four thirty

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Speaker 2: eight as a three point underdog. Total saiales over forty six.

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Speaker 2: I mean the stat here before I hand it to you.

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Speaker 2: Steelers five and oh straight up is underdogs this season.

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Speaker 2: Rest of the NFL twenty nine percent straight up as dogs.

250
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Speaker 2: Tomlin twenty two and fifteen straight up twenty six, nine

251
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Speaker 2: and two against the spread as an underdog versus the

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Speaker 2: AFC North. They just continue to figure it out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, another raw raw Tomlin spot. I had the game

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Speaker 3: guy on this one. You just got to just bet it.

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Speaker 3: I don't know why it works, you just gotta bet it.

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Speaker 3: The other stat that I was sure you'd have, I'm

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Speaker 3: sure you've got it in there. Mike Tomlin nine and three.

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Speaker 3: That means, officially, for the bajillionth year in a row,

259
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Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin will yet again not finish under five hundred.

260
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Speaker 3: He has never done it. Still, I believe that hit

261
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Speaker 3: the season win total over as well. They put that

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Speaker 3: right on the five hundred. So here we are again.

263
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Speaker 3: I did not think it was happening this year, but

264
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Speaker 3: every year I don't think it's happening, and then it

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Speaker 3: somehow does again. Joe Burrow my man. Three hundred and

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Speaker 3: nine yards, three touchdowns. Now, admittedly he threw a pick,

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Speaker 3: he lost two fumbles, he had four sacks. He's not

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Speaker 3: playing mistake free football. Three hundred yards and three scores.

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Speaker 3: He's now done that five times this season in a loss.

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Speaker 3: He has five game. There's only twenty games all season

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Speaker 3: with three hundred yards and three touchdowns. Russell Wilson had

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Speaker 3: one in this game. Joe Burrow is five of the

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Speaker 3: twenty in the NFL and his team is ozer one

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Speaker 3: to five in these games. For reference, He's done that

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Speaker 3: with one reception or less five times this season. Tom

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Speaker 3: Brady did it four times his entire career and lost

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Speaker 3: the game there. So Joe Burrow, I think, weirdly is

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Speaker 3: the MVP this season. He just doesn't have any defense

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Speaker 3: or run game or coaching or any help. And you

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Speaker 3: don't get to beat the MVP when you keep losing

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Speaker 3: the games all the time. We had almost nine hundred

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Speaker 3: yards of offense. I don't know about you haven't, but

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Speaker 3: I did not have forty four to thirty eight Steelers

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Speaker 3: as a score prediction in this game or ever at

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Speaker 3: any game of my life. I've never predicted the Steelers

286
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Speaker 3: doing forty four to thirty eight. They were ninety ninth

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Speaker 3: percentile epn early downs. They're in nine ninth percent INTEL

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Speaker 3: on success rate on early downs. This Bengals defense is

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Speaker 3: an atrocity. If the Steelers are doing that to you.

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Speaker 3: Russell Wilson four hundred and fourteen yards and three scores.

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Speaker 3: It is over over for this team. So we are

292
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Speaker 3: at that point of the season. It's December now, teams

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Speaker 3: like the Jets and the Bengals get him off the

294
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Speaker 3: graphic the playoff, you know, like, who's in the race.

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Speaker 3: You're not in the race. You've never been to the race.

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Speaker 3: I'm tired of talking about you. They're out of here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, one player leads the league in both passing yards

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Speaker 2: and passing touchdowns and they're four and eight. So absolutely

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Speaker 2: just insane. And I'm gonna go into my big stat here,

300
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Speaker 2: which I'm doing as a segue because it is the

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow stat. I tweeted this out. So Burrow has

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Speaker 2: thirty passing touchdowns and five interceptions now through twelve games.

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Speaker 2: He's the seventh quarterback to do that in history. Here

304
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Speaker 2: are the other quarterbacks to do that. Mahomes he won

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Speaker 2: eleven and one, Rogers nine and three, Breeze ten and two,

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Speaker 2: Rogers nine and three, Rogers, Brady twelve and oh those

307
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Speaker 2: other six quarterbacks have nine losses through twelve games. Burrow

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Speaker 2: has eight himself, so absolute just insanity. And then the

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Speaker 2: other one here I'll give is this season, teams to

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Speaker 2: score thirty plus are now eighty and seven straight up.

311
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Speaker 2: The Bengals have four of those seven losses since November one.

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Speaker 2: Teams who score thirty or more twenty eight and two.

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Speaker 2: The two losses are both the Bengals. It is just

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Speaker 2: absolutely insane that their defense cannot have a stop when

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Speaker 2: they need it. Now, Burrow, like you said, turnovers all

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Speaker 2: over the place, fumble the strip, sack leading to points.

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Speaker 2: We get it, but numbers are insane. The last one

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Speaker 2: I'll give you before we move to the best of

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Speaker 2: the rest entering Monday night football home teams in the

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Speaker 2: NFL this year ninety four and ninety five straight up.

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Speaker 2: So a Broncos win will make it even, but home

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00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 2: field advantage completely and utterly meaningless at this point, So

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Speaker 2: find a different angle. Best of the rest. Arizona at

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Speaker 2: Minnesota here, so Minnesota wins the game twenty three to

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Speaker 2: twenty two as a three and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 2: Arizona gets the cover. Total goes under forty five and

327
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Speaker 2: a half fairly. Arizona led this game nineteen to six,

328
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Speaker 2: ended up losing on the road in Minnesota. So Arizona

329
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Speaker 2: is now just eight and five straight up since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. When leading by ten plus points at any point.

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Speaker 2: That is a third worst mark in the NFL, behind

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Speaker 2: just the Raiders and Bears. You do not want to

333
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Speaker 2: be on a list with the Raiders and Bears in

334
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,439
Speaker 2: any category. So that is definitely glaring on Kyler Murray

335
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Speaker 2: more than anyone. Brandon, what you got here?

336
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Speaker 3: This is your team, guys, WinCE my team. I'm rocking

337
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 3: the Vikings jersey again. I gotta be honest, this wasn't

338
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Speaker 3: necessarily the most exciting game of the day. Fun finish,

339
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Speaker 3: but kind of a snoozer Throughout. Eight of the first

340
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Speaker 3: eleven drives in this game resulted in the field goal attempt.

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Speaker 3: At least we had in the first half alone five

342
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Speaker 3: field goals and a missfield goal. Of course, of course,

343
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Speaker 3: because I went back to the wall in the first quarter,

344
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Speaker 3: Bett one more time, We're kicking field goals on this game. Here,

345
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Speaker 3: Cardinal's up nineteen to six. Minnesota finishes from their touchdown

346
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Speaker 3: field goal touchdown during last stretch, Caler Murray two interceptions.

347
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Speaker 3: The defense did the job, Honestly, I think both teams

348
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Speaker 3: left a lot on the table. Arizona's gonna rue losing

349
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Speaker 3: this one, though they had over one hundred yards more

350
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Speaker 3: than Minnesota. They had twenty six more plays than the Vikings.

351
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Speaker 3: Minnesota was one of eight on third down wins this game.

352
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Speaker 3: Why Arizona was one of six in the red zone.

353
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Speaker 3: That is a rough number for you. That's all those

354
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Speaker 3: field goals you're settling for. I kind of think big picture,

355
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Speaker 3: this is maybe a spot to sell high in Minnesota

356
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 3: and buy a little a little bit on Arizona. So

357
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 3: Minnesota defensive number has been fading a little bit. Four

358
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Speaker 3: hundred plus yards for Arizona here. Don't miss the fact

359
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 3: that they're getting the yards and moving the ball, even

360
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,880
Speaker 3: they're selling for field goals. Yards are a lot more

361
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Speaker 3: telling for defenses going forward. Minnesota plays Kirk Cousins next

362
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Speaker 3: week Monday Night against Chicago, then at Seattle, Green Bay

363
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 3: at Detroit to end the season. This might still be

364
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 3: the sixth seed. The Vikings are I think eleven and

365
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 3: two right now. You could win the division, you could

366
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Speaker 3: be the one seed. If you lose a couple of games,

367
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Speaker 3: especially you lose that Packers game, you're the sixth seed.

368
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,479
Speaker 3: So the bottom could drop out real quickly here on

369
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 3: this team, they don't feel like a ten and two

370
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,280
Speaker 3: type team right now. Arizona six and six. We talked

371
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Speaker 3: about Seattle. I got my Seattle stock. Arizona plays Seattle next,

372
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Speaker 3: they get to host this time they just played them

373
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Speaker 3: when we could go. We'll come back to that one

374
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Speaker 3: on the hot Red. Then they get New England Carolina.

375
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Speaker 3: That feels good. Then the Rams and the Niners, who

376
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 3: by that point probably will be out of things and

377
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 3: not necessarily even playing their top guys. So I think

378
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 3: it maybe maybe is the time for some of my

379
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 3: Seattle stock to put a little bit on Cardinals Island

380
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,959
Speaker 3: also and balance things out a little. But I think

381
00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 3: this is maybe more of a two horse race than

382
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 3: it seems. The Rams play the Bills in the Niners

383
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 3: up next, I'm not sure that they're in this thing.

384
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 3: So I think Arizona this this is a game they

385
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 3: should have had. I appreciate that they didn't as a

386
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,239
Speaker 3: Vikings fan an a Seattle Island backer, but I think

387
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 3: it's a good chance to invest in the future. Is

388
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 3: opposite of the game result here.

389
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I would have thought at

390
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 2: this point San Francisco would be last in the NFC West,

391
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 2: but that is where we sit. Okay, Sunday Night Football

392
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 2: San Francisco at Buffalo. Buffalo wins a game thirty five

393
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 2: to ten as a six and a half point favorite.

394
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: The total goes barely under forty five and a half.

395
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 2: I think the story entering this game and which ended

396
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 2: up probably being the story and the postgame, was part

397
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,159
Speaker 2: of the MVP conversation. So before the game started, Josh

398
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: Allen was plus one thirty Saquon Barkley plus two seventy,

399
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: Lamar plus five point fifty GoF seven to one. After

400
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 2: the game ended, Josh Allen moved to minus two thirty. Wow,

401
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 2: so minus two thirty favorite Saquon five to one, Lamar

402
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 2: eleven to one, Golf eleven to one, so a large gap.

403
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 2: After everyone saw him catch a touchdown, throw, a touchdown, rush,

404
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 2: a touchdown, kick, a touchdown. He did literally everything he

405
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 2: could have done in this game for Buffalo, which leads

406
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 2: to the odds move. So let's talk about the game

407
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 2: for a second. It is Purdy's first regular season game

408
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 2: as an underdog, but to me, it just wasn't even

409
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 2: really a fair shot. This is just never even though

410
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 2: at the end of the first quarter it was in reach,

411
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 2: it just never looked like San Francisco was in the

412
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 2: game as a whole. Like I never thought after four

413
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 2: quarters it would be a close game. Just after watching

414
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 2: a few drives in this one. Buffalo just looked so

415
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 2: much more comfortable. Ray Davis gets the first touchdown. He

416
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 2: was six to one anytime, thirty two to one first

417
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: touchdown if anyone had that out there. Now early on,

418
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: you have some injuries. Josh Allen got banged up. Now

419
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: CMCs one is a lot more interesting and a lot

420
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: worse since it looks like it's a PCL injury. He

421
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: could be done for the season at this point. So

422
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: not great overall, but not sure. It matters for a

423
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 2: San Francisco team that so many injuries this year completely

424
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 2: caught up to them. Aside from that, I'm not sure

425
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 2: how much there's really to talk about here. The Bills

426
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 2: clinch the afcast they would be They are the first

427
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 2: NFL team to clinch the division with five weeks to

428
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: play since Peyton Manning and the Colts in two thousand

429
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,160
Speaker 2: and nine. So it's over. They can worry about other things,

430
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 2: And obviously you want to get home field, and there's

431
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 2: some work to do there, especially with the Chiefs and

432
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 2: trying to catch up to whatever the heck they're doing.

433
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 2: But that's Buffalo story from San Francisco's point of view.

434
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 2: And I tweeted this out and I think this is

435
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: just a sentiment on San Francisco season. They're two to

436
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: ten against the second half spread. They are three and

437
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 2: thirteen second half spread in their last sixteen games heading

438
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 2: back to last year. They just can't close games, and

439
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 2: even when they stay close, they are just falling apart

440
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: in the second half. And to me, yeah, some of

441
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 2: that's the injuries and some of them that's players. It's

442
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 2: also a lot on Kyle Shanahan. I got to put

443
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,360
Speaker 2: some of it on him as well. And just think

444
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: about this. That Christmas game last year against the Ravens,

445
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 2: everyone was watching, everyone lifted it up, one of the

446
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 2: best games of the year. San Francisco including that game,

447
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 2: is eight and ten in the last eighteen games including

448
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 2: that game. They're just decimated in a completely different team here.

449
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 3: Brandon, Yeah, it's really crazy. If you look at the

450
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan stats in San Francisco, basically, I think maybe

451
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 3: all but one year. I don't have the exact number,

452
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 3: but I think it's like seven years now and one season.

453
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 3: This isn't true. Otherwise he either makes the NFC Championship

454
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 3: so Final four or misses the playoffs entirely. It is

455
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 3: all or nothing, and increasingly it looks like nothing this year.

456
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 3: This is not what we expected. We know about the

457
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: Super Bowl losers curse and all that kind of crap does.

458
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: Too many injuries, too many things going wrong. You're not

459
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: going to win this game. Like playing the Killers and

460
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 3: you know they're the rock in the stadium and you

461
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 3: got the lake effects snow. This is like a schedule

462
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: loss when the weather comes in like that and you're

463
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: playing in Buffalo. Not really their fault, injuries are not.

464
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 3: You're probably not gonna win that game. Sorry, that's gonna happen.

465
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 3: Sometimes you're just gonna have a not your day sort

466
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: of game. That, to me, is the story of this

467
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 3: game tonight. You just can't afford it anymore. There's no

468
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 3: margin of error left. The division is still there. But

469
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 3: I don't know, like I think they're not dead, except

470
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: that McCaffrey might not play against so then they might

471
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 3: actually be dead again. I don't know.

472
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 2: Jordan Mason's looked good though, so I mean that happened

473
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 2: for a while, so San Francisco upcoming schedule. You got

474
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 2: two home games, you got the Bears, you got the Rams,

475
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: So there's an opportunity to maybe get back to seven

476
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: and seven.

477
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 3: But I don't know.

478
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: I think we're done yet.

479
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,360
Speaker 3: I don't think we're done with the Nanners just yet.

480
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 3: We're gonna hear from them again. I'm not sure that

481
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: they're gonna make it. I don't know that i'd bet it,

482
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 3: but I don't think that they're just gonna roll over here.

483
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: I think we got more story to tell, all.

484
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 2: Right, let's keep moving. Chargers at Falcons. Chargers somehow find

485
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: a way to win this game. Seventeen thirteen. They closed

486
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 2: as a one point favorite, with Atlanta being the dog.

487
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: Total sales under forty seven just never really even got

488
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: close to this one charge. Another just low scoring game

489
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 2: for Herbert and the Chargers. Herbert eighteen and seven to

490
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: the Unders insistarted last year best mark in the NFL,

491
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: and you'll talk about it. Cousins four picks just never

492
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 2: really gave him a shot.

493
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, Cousins four picks cost them the game straight up.

494
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 3: The Falcons nearly doubled the Chargers in yardage to this game.

495
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 3: They should have absolutely won this game. Cousins had a

496
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 3: pick six and the interceptions on long drives, the interception

497
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 3: on the ninth play of a drive, the tenth play,

498
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 3: and the fourteenth play of a drive, all those in

499
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 3: scoring range. In the game. They lose by four, including

500
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 3: giving seven points to the other team on a pick six.

501
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 3: Why well, the Chargers couldn't do anything offensively. Their last

502
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 3: six drives of the game fourteen plays for twenty seven yards.

503
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 3: They only had one driver of five plays. And this

504
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 3: is against the Falcons, who are not a good defense,

505
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 3: who have been bleeding points to pretty much anyone outside

506
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 3: the division. So not a good showing. Either team was

507
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 3: not good on late downs. Just ugly game. You're forgetting

508
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 3: if you just kind of forgot this game happened if

509
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 3: you're watching a red zone. This ended like two and

510
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 3: a half hours in the entire witching hour was still

511
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 3: to come. With all the other close games, and I

512
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,479
Speaker 3: know this one was close. It just was over and

513
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 3: off the screen entirely, with like the whole fourth quarter

514
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 3: to go on most the other games Chargers they won either,

515
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 3: How are they getting there? They've won five of six now,

516
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: think they're pretty safely in the playoff. Picture. We'll come

517
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 3: back to them in the hot red Falcons three losses

518
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 3: in a row, now now tied with the Buccaneers in

519
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: the division, and Kirk Cousins goes back to Minnesota next week.

520
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 3: They do have an easy closing stretch. But to put

521
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 3: in perspective, Atlanta versus Tampa, who will get to in

522
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 3: a second. Tampa Bay is seventy three points of point

523
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: differential ahead of the Falcons, who are now minus thirty

524
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: four on the season, So they might both be six

525
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 3: and six, but the numbers are pretty clear who the

526
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 3: better team is right now, and Alwa has got to

527
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 3: raid the ship in a hurry.

528
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we're we could just keep rolling here because

529
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 2: the next time we're going to talk about is Tampa

530
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 2: Bay and Carolina, which is a direct correlation here. And

531
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 2: I know you and I have had some Bucks futures

532
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: and we've been talking about building on that. This was perfect,

533
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 2: I mean, today basically worked out exactly how you wanted to,

534
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 2: except for Baker Mayfield being in a walking boot, which

535
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: I don't love. And I hope he's okay. I haven't

536
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: heard any news there, but he did get banged up

537
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: in his ankle injury. In the game, but the Bucks

538
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 2: win the game twenty six to twenty three. Carolina does

539
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: get the cover, though as a six and a half

540
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 2: point underdog. Total goes over forty six. I mean, the

541
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 2: game starts with just one of the more ridiculous catches

542
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 2: from Mike Evans Bakes basically making a one handed catch

543
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: in the end zone while falling out of bounds. A

544
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 2: lot of people at the Action Network kt Evans score

545
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 2: a touchdown. Everyone was pretty excited. But the story here

546
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 2: is Bryce Young. I mean, overall, since getting benched, he

547
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 2: has been I don't even want to say formidable, because

548
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 2: he's been better than formidable, Like he's actually been a

549
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 2: threatening quarterback down the field to opposing defenses, and not

550
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 2: someone who's scoring zero in three points in the first

551
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,919
Speaker 2: quarter in the first half, and someone who's just turning

552
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 2: the ball over so consistently that they don't give Carolina

553
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: a shot. That's not this quarterback, which again makes them dangerous.

554
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 2: And that's really the story of the game to me.

555
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: I mean Feelan also should have had a touchdown before

556
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 2: the half, I don't. I mean, everyone's screaming and yelling

557
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: he was definitely in bounds. Carolina mostly should have won

558
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: this game and wouldn't have been good for our futures,

559
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 2: but it really would have probably been the win of

560
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: Bryce Young's career at this point, so that to me

561
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: is most likely the story. It was a great Bucky

562
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: Irving game, and I think that probably says something for

563
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 2: Carolina's next game next week against Saquon Barkley. They can't

564
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 2: stop the run at all, and you have to assume

565
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 2: Saguan is going to go crazy. So those MVP odds

566
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 2: kind of interesting considering they've got Carolina on deck. I

567
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 2: will just say that, and my one note here, Baker

568
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: is just an absolute gamer. When he was hurt on

569
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 2: the drive thirty seconds left trying to get them into

570
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: field goal range. He has just seems to get the

571
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: job done so much lately since he got to Tampa Bay.

572
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: He's a different quarterback. He's confident, the franchise believes in him.

573
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 2: I just I'm a fan of his and I just

574
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 2: love his moxie, and especially with the moxie, and he

575
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: doesn't have Godwin anymore. It's just respect all around there.

576
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 2: So the ot going. The game goes to overtime and

577
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 2: obviously goes over, but absolutely barely there was a moment

578
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: there late overtime where we were considering a tie here,

579
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: which would have actually cashed the under for some people

580
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 2: since it was forty six and a half at the

581
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 2: high this week, which kind of got fun there at

582
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: the end. But listen, feeling again makes one of the

583
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: best catches that catch in overtime. I don't know if

584
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: you saw that with one hand down the sideline, what

585
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 2: honestly one of the more ridiculous catches I've ever seen.

586
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 2: And then obviously Chewba Hubbard fumbles the next play and

587
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: that kind of ends it. My two notes before we

588
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 2: move on here. Carolina has now covered the spread in

589
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: four straight games, so this is a bit of a

590
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 2: turnaround for them, and they're now getting thirteen points next

591
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: week in Philadelphia, which is a completely different story. And

592
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 2: then the Baker stat. I'll give you Baker against divisional opponents.

593
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: He's now nine and nine against the spread as an underdog,

594
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 2: are nine and eight against the spread as an underdog,

595
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 2: and five and thirteen as a favorite. So he just

596
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 2: probably doesn't belong laying that many points, especially against this

597
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: formidable Carolina offense in terms of points they can put up.

598
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: But that's what I got here? Anything else here?

599
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 3: I mean, I was just dreaming a little bit, just

600
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 3: a little bit about Panthers Island maybe maybe coming back

601
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 3: into play. We got to overtime on that feeling catch

602
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: all right, we'll switch over to boxing.

603
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,719
Speaker 2: You felt it for like a good sixty seconds. There

604
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 2: was like sixty seconds there. You were like, huh interesting,

605
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: not even enough.

606
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 3: Time for me to tweet out an Undertaker gif. It

607
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:18,719
Speaker 3: just was over just that fast.

608
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 2: All right, Let's keep moving here. So before we move on,

609
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: a quick announcement, Action Network is running back our annual

610
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:30,240
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611
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612
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613
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,400
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614
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,840
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615
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Speaker 2: Black Friday to get forty dollars off a year of Pro,

616
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,400
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617
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,880
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618
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: Action team. That's Actionnetwork dot Com slash Black Friday for

619
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 2: the best price of the year on Action Pro. All right,

620
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: the rest is slate those games, which is not as

621
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: good of games. Let's go quick here, Indy at New England.

622
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: Indy wins twenty five to twenty four, two and a

623
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 2: half point road favorite New England covers total goes over

624
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: forty one. The only fun stat I'm gonna give you

625
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: before I give it before I toss it to Colts

626
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 2: lost to the Lions last week. That means teams after

627
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 2: facing the Lions now one to nine against the spread

628
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 2: this season. Now this goes a little further. They're fifteen

629
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 2: and twenty eight over the last three years, the least

630
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: profitable prior opponent against the spread in the NFL. So

631
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 2: maybe there's an impact there, But it becomes kind of interesting.

632
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 2: What else you got here, Brandon?

633
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, paying for me? Paying for me? If you followed

634
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 3: tail down the Colts minus one and a half on

635
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 3: the hot red to get the one point win. Here,

636
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 3: the Colts get down, get the touchdown, and then I

637
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: see the two fingers up in the air. Right we're

638
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: going for two, and I just know we're cooked either

639
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 3: way at this point, Maker Mess, this thing is over.

640
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 3: It's like twelve seconds left. Richardson runs in for two

641
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 3: of the play you should be doing, because that's what

642
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: he's out there for. Game wasn't over. We brought Joey's

643
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 3: sly out. They barely even got this onto the red

644
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 3: zone channel. Joey Slide tried a sixty eight yard field

645
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 3: goal for the Patriots for the win. That thing was

646
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 3: only short, like a yard or two. Like we nearly

647
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 3: made NFL history today getting the longest cake ever. That's

648
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: about all from this game. Patriots actually were the much

649
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: better team four hunder and twenty two yards here on

650
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: the Colts. It's not a great look for a team

651
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 3: that's six and seven and kind of hanging around. I

652
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 3: keep wanting anyone by the Texans into euro last shot here.

653
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 3: I got a downgrade them after this. They get the win.

654
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 3: I like what I see from richardson Ish on the

655
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 3: running it in, but as usual, like huge a dot,

656
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 3: not much completion, fifty percent completion rate, one hundred and

657
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: nine passing yards. It's not a great performance here. You

658
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 3: get the win, but not good enough for them.

659
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 2: I know you tweeted that Jacksonville future on the division

660
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 2: in five hundred to one. I was touting the Colts future.

661
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 2: So when I saw Jacksonville getting back in the game today,

662
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 2: I was like, hey, maybe there's an opportunity here. Well,

663
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: at least the kid's get the win, So I guess

664
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: it lives another day, but let's keep moving here. Rams

665
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 2: at Saints. Rams win the game twenty one to fourteen,

666
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: covers two and a half point road favorites. Total goes

667
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: under forty eight and a half. I mean, the only

668
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: interesting thing from the beginning of this game was the

669
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 2: fact that Blake Korum got a ton of run. And

670
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 2: then when you know that a guy like that's getting

671
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 2: a run, especially with the Sean McVeagh running back system,

672
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 2: which is he just goes with whoever the heck he

673
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 2: wants and if he's hot, he keeps rolling with them.

674
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: So at that point you said to yourself, well, when's

675
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,439
Speaker 2: Kyrion Williams gonna get his run? Well, Kyle Williams scored

676
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 2: a touchdown on the second half and basically had one

677
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: hundred yards and he completely changed the script on the game.

678
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 2: So he was going with one guy going with another guy,

679
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 2: just kind of what McVeigh does to Taysom Hill. Injury

680
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 2: just sucks for New Orleans. Cart it off. Believe he's

681
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 2: done for the season at this point, bad injury for him,

682
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 2: so that was a story. But really down seven New

683
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 2: Orleans fourth quarter, the Saints fourteen play drive, they knock

684
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 2: off seven forty five off the clock and it ends

685
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 2: with a turnover on downs. They just basically did nothing

686
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: with the ball for eight minutes, drove all the way

687
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 2: down the field and had nothing to show for it.

688
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: And as we talked about with the defensive rookie of

689
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 2: the year Jared Vers, game winning sack fumble probably helps

690
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 2: him out a little bit in that sense. It's a

691
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 2: nice play that everyone saw on Red Zone. Some stats

692
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 2: here and this one just crazy. Derek Carr three and

693
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 2: eight straight up now coming off a buy in his career,

694
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 2: one in seven straight up ats off a full buy

695
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen, worst of any quarterback. You could find

696
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 2: a lot of bad Derek Carr stats out there, but

697
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 2: being one and seven straight up off a full buy

698
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen is just kind of wild in itself.

699
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 2: Car now zero to four against the spread versus Sean McVay,

700
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 2: not a good matchup for him. And the interesting thing

701
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: I saw today was, or at least this week, teams

702
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 2: off of by one in five straight up the only

703
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,959
Speaker 2: win was Buffalo tonight, and this year I believe they're

704
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: eleven and fifteen straight up teams off of bye, so

705
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,919
Speaker 2: kind of rare where rest is really not meant a lot.

706
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling Houston at Jacksonville. Houston, like

707
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 2: I said before, barely hangs on twenty three to twenty

708
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 2: as a three and a half point road favorite. Jags

709
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: get the cover for anyone who met them this week.

710
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: Three and a halfs fours, four and a half's all

711
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: came through total goes under forty four and a half.

712
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 2: Maybe the craziest stat of them all here before I

713
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,280
Speaker 2: hand it off to you, Texans eleven and two first

714
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 2: half against the spread, two and eleven second half against

715
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 2: the spread, the best first half team, the worst second

716
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: half team, and boy did they let Jacksonville back in

717
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 2: the day game with Mac Jones after that terrible injury

718
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 2: to Trevor Lawrence. What else you got here?

719
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 3: Yeah? That was my stat also, And that was not

720
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 3: a great Sunday for me betting wise. We didn't have

721
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,479
Speaker 3: our best result, but I will help a victory lap

722
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 3: a little bit on this one. We want to do

723
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 3: a void Texans full game finishes three and a half,

724
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 3: so you get the hook if you took Texans full game.

725
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 3: I specifically want us to play the first half. We

726
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 3: played that trend. We got the two and a half,

727
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 3: we're up six three and a half. Time we won

728
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 3: with the hook at the half, you'll lose at the

729
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 3: hook with the whole game. So you know, not a

730
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: great day, but we got to celebrate our wins where

731
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 3: we can get it. Obviously, the big story here is

732
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence wicked, wicked hit, pretty dirty looking hit, honestly

733
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 3: from Aziz al Shaire. Lawrence gets carried off. Al shar

734
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 3: agets e Jack Dan. There's like a big like everyone's

735
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 3: coming off the benches on the field. I had to

736
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,919
Speaker 3: believe Treylor Lawrence is done for the year. I don't

737
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 3: know why he was playing in this game to start with,

738
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 3: but I don't know why he would play going forward. Now.

739
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: These teams basically are about equal in this game, and

740
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 3: that's sort of telling about what the Texans are. When

741
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 3: you're about equal to not just the Jaguars, but the

742
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: still Doug Peterson and no longer Trevor Lawrence Jaguars featuring

743
00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 3: Mac Jones. I don't know, man, Houston's gonna probably win

744
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 3: the division, but they might be like eleven and the

745
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 3: six in the playoffs and be a home underdog in

746
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 3: the opening round. They might have to play at Baltimore

747
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 3: in that first game. Even the Chargers, I don't know

748
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 3: who's gonna want to back Houston in the playoffs at

749
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 3: this point.

750
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: Houston is honestly and enigma at this point, I mean,

751
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 2: they find ways to win games. Everyone really doesn't like them,

752
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 2: Everyone has so much negative to say about them, But again,

753
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 2: they are going to make the playoffs. I mean, we're

754
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,399
Speaker 2: you and I for weeks have been trying to find

755
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: different angles to tell people to bet against Houston because

756
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 2: and to be honest, we're right. We are correct. We

757
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 2: see it every single week that there's holes all over

758
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 2: this team, and today, I mean they didn't cover, but

759
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 2: they still get the win and the wins all that

760
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 2: matters when it comes to the playoffs. All right, last

761
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: game before we get to Monday night football, Yeah, we

762
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: didn't forget it. Tennessee at Washington. Washington wins forty two

763
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 2: to nineteen. Is a six point home favorite. Total goes

764
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: over forty five and a half. Here's my stat since

765
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,800
Speaker 2: it started last year. The Titans are zero and eight

766
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 2: against the spread after a straight up win. They're the

767
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 2: only team in the NFL without a cover after a

768
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 2: straight up winning that span. Every other NFL team has

769
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 2: at least two covers in that span. The last quarterback

770
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 2: to cover for the Titans after a straight up win

771
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 2: would be Ryan Tannehill. So it has been downhill and

772
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,760
Speaker 2: today was They basically didn't get there till two thirty pm.

773
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, this was the one game we don't have to

774
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 3: say too much about today. You know, sometimes we get

775
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: this forty two to nineteen and I say, you know,

776
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 3: the score actually isn't what it looks like here? No, no, no,

777
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 3: this is every bet what it looks like. This was

778
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 3: a get right game to get right on it and anything.

779
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 3: I guess a pretty good Tennessee defense too. I've talked

780
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 3: a lot about this year. Jane Daniels runs one in

781
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 3: throws for three. I think we're back to where we

782
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 3: should have been on the Rookie of the Year race.

783
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 3: We'll see about Monday night. We'll get to that shortly.

784
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 3: Here's the fun stat from this one. Nick Westbrook, a

785
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 3: kine from the Titans. I know what the commanders get

786
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 3: all the touchdowns. Westbrigakine gets three catches sixty one yards

787
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 3: two scores. To this, dude played the first four games

788
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 3: without getting a target, mostly special teams. He has now

789
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 3: scored a touchdown in seven of eight games since. He

790
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 3: has eight touchdowns on twenty catches for the season. He

791
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 3: is a touchdown machine shades of Mark Boerechter. He played

792
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 3: Fantasy Football back of the day like two thousand and two,

793
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 3: the exact line eight touchdowns on twenty catches assuming west

794
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 3: Burgacino win catch one again. I talked to Jill earlier,

795
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: our touchdown expert. West Brigacine is now the number two

796
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 3: most profitable anytime touchdown player on the season. If you

797
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 3: just blind bat him one unit every week, you're up

798
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 3: plus thirty seven point four units on the season. His

799
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 3: odds had been like eleven and fifteen to one in

800
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: the first few weeks, and then five to one for

801
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 3: a few of the touchdown hits. He's getting it every

802
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 3: single game. He's only missed one game in the stretch.

803
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 3: I don't know how you keep doing that forever, but

804
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 3: apparently him and Will Levis got some going on. It's

805
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 3: a pretty weird random stat and we get one of

806
00:40:56,000 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 3: those eight touchdowns on twenty catches forty percent touchdo donate

807
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 3: anything about ten is ridiculous. That's like Mike Evans territory.

808
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 3: So gotta celebrate in a losing effort, our guy Nick

809
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 3: Westbrook at Kine.

810
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: That is crazy. I'll give you one more. So Rookie

811
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 2: of the Year ods are up right now after today

812
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 2: before Monday Night Football, after today's late Jane Daniels minus

813
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,760
Speaker 2: two seventy, Bonicks plus two forty, so it has widened

814
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 2: a little bit now. Obviously Bonix hasn't played yet and

815
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 2: Jade Daniels scored forty points, so I think that's being

816
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 2: built in. But maybe some value if you think Denver

817
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: wins Tomorrow night. The one thing I do want to say,

818
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 2: we were given out Brock Bowers as a potential flyer

819
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: before Black Friday. He's down to twelve to one, so

820
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 2: he is the third choice and even just in the

821
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 2: mix at the moment. I believe he was fifty sixty

822
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 2: to one range when we were talking about before his

823
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: big game. So interesting, interesting, interesting, all right, Monday Night.

824
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 3: I'm tweeting about it, you know, getting get the hard out,

825
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 3: you know, like if Jane Daniels was the stumble. I

826
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 3: think Nicks and Daniels will both have to stumble, but

827
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,479
Speaker 3: any Flowers is the guy who could step in there.

828
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:02,760
Speaker 3: You may have missed the window on it, probably before

829
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 3: that big Black Friday game that everyone watched. I think

830
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 3: this is important. Though we've talked for a few weeks

831
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 3: now about the Cliff Cliff and Washington falling off, this

832
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 3: is the one game we didn't really have much to

833
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 3: say about. I think it's important to know how good

834
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 3: they were in this game, again, against a pretty good

835
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 3: Tennessee defense. Washington's offense looked like it in the first

836
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 3: month of the season, and that is not a zero

837
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 3: data point. Like the Titans have been pretty good defensively

838
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 3: against a bunch of teams. So I think we have

839
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 3: to factor this in and assume Washington can still figure

840
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 3: things out, just maybe not against the very top top

841
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 3: teams in the league. That's fine, A lot of teams

842
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 3: can't do that.

843
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and twenty eight nothing or whatever didn't help start either.

844
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 2: All Right, Monday night football right Cleveland at Denver. I'll

845
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 2: give you two notes before I toss it off to you.

846
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 2: So Monday Night football overs have been a cash cow.

847
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: They're eleven and four so far this year, and Sunday

848
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 2: Night footballs been the complete opposite all unders, including Tonight

849
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: oh and so Monday Football over is by five point

850
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 2: five points per game and bon Nicks So bone Knicks

851
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 2: has closed as a favorite five times in twelve career starts.

852
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 2: He is five and oh straight up and against the

853
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 2: spread in those games, covering by almost fourteen points per game.

854
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,359
Speaker 2: The crazy thing is so jayde and Daniels started five

855
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 2: and oh against the spread as a favorite. Caleb Williams

856
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 2: started three and oh against the spread as a favorite.

857
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: So just rookie quarterbacks tend to be covering this year

858
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 2: a little bit opposite of what we saw last year.

859
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 2: But if bon Knicks gets the cover on Monday Night Football,

860
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 2: he would be the first rookie to start six and

861
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,879
Speaker 2: oh against the spread as a favorite in the Super

862
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 2: Bowl era, so something we have never seen before. What

863
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 2: do you got here? Any thoughts?

864
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 3: Yeah? Not the most interesting game in the world if

865
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:47,959
Speaker 3: I'm being honest, But I do have a get bet.

866
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 3: I actually have a Monday Night escalator. I'll get to

867
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 3: in a second. Brown's offense. We've talked with this a

868
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 3: little bit lots better under Jamis Winston, so they're moving

869
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 3: the ball much better. Now. They're still ranked dead last

870
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,439
Speaker 3: by DVA in the season. This is not the worst

871
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: offense in the league. They're not even close to that.

872
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 3: They're not great still Jameis Winston, but they move on

873
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 3: the ball. I think Jim Schwartz defense are gonna get

874
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 3: some pressure on bow next too, so we'll see exactly

875
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 3: how that goes. But these are relatively similar teams. If

876
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 3: I had to pick a side, I'd be inclined to

877
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 3: take the points with just, you know, such a high

878
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 3: line on two teams. I don't think we get a

879
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 3: ton of scoring on my angle with Jerry Judy. This

880
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 3: is the Jerry Judy revenge game. I want Jerry Judy

881
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 3: overs Denver basically buried his career and now my man

882
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:34,240
Speaker 3: got a real quarterback with Jameis Winston, and he's actually

883
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 3: balling out pretty good. Before Jamis took in got the lineup,

884
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 3: Judy was at six targets a game averaged three catches

885
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 3: for thirty eight yards, pretty much nothing like he had

886
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 3: been in Denver. Since then, nine targets a game, six

887
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,240
Speaker 3: catches for ninety five yards on average, with Jamis Winston

888
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 3: is a huge leap. He's at least five catches at

889
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 3: least seventy three yards all four Jamis games. Denver is

890
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 3: the best defense in the league against fantasy receivers, but

891
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 3: bottom half against wide receiver one and that's Judy, especially

892
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 3: because Ceder Tillman is out this game with an injury.

893
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,399
Speaker 3: So Judy is gonna get a lot of attention. Last week,

894
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 3: Jacobe Myers ten catches, one hundred and twenty one yards,

895
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 3: fifteen targets against Denver. The week before is Zave Flowers

896
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty seven yards, two scores against Denver.

897
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,479
Speaker 3: I only I want to touchdown here. That's not Judy's game.

898
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 3: He's not really a big volume guy. I want the

899
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 3: big plays. I want the Jamis chucking it downfield. Give

900
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 3: me the yardage stuff. So here's the escalator. I put

901
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: this into the app on Saturday, So check the line.

902
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 3: Get the best line you can. I grabbed the over

903
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 3: the traditional yards fifty seven and a half. Wherever in

904
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 3: that range fifty nine sixty somewhere in there is probably fine.

905
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 3: I took a little seventy plus. It was at plus

906
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 3: one forty five. He's hit that all four games with

907
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 3: Jamis Winston. So I think that's a nice alt if

908
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 3: that line had gone up and then I took one

909
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 3: hundred yards four and a half to one, one hundred

910
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 3: twenty yards at nine to one. Again, he just hit

911
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 3: that himself two weeks ago, six catches one hundred and

912
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 3: forty two yards, and Jacob Myers and Za Flowers just

913
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 3: said against Denver the last two games as well. So

914
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 3: I think there's a chance here against this old team

915
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 3: that was more than happy to move on. Maybe we

916
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,280
Speaker 3: get Jerry Gi to make this one a little interesting

917
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 3: for us. You got any bets for Monday night?

918
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 2: Yeah? I like that Judy play. I was on that

919
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 2: as well. I was considering Najoku receptions. The thing I

920
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 2: really have a problem with is Jamis is so unpredictable.

921
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,720
Speaker 2: Other quarterbacks seem much more predictable in terms of Okay,

922
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 2: they like going to this guy, they like tight ends,

923
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 2: they like wide receivers. Jamis is not like that. So

924
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,919
Speaker 2: I do like Najoku receptions, and the other one would

925
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 2: probably be Dustin Hopkins field goals. Denver's defense is so stingy,

926
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 2: and I expect Jamis to try to move the ball downfield.

927
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 2: I just think he's gonna stall out, So I think

928
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: Hopkins Field goals probably figures out a way to get there.

929
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,839
Speaker 2: All right, hot reads, so you usually come with two.

930
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:59,800
Speaker 2: Now you're telling us you got three? What do you got,

931
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:06,240
Speaker 2: boy on ice rights? Ice cream Holt?

932
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 3: I got three. We had to buy out of the

933
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 3: game for Sunday night, so we only really out of

934
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 3: one last week. Let's get a little bonus one in here.

935
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 3: Here's a theme. So let me set up the theme here.

936
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 3: We're going under. It's all three unders, and it's all

937
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 3: three unders in division games. I got a whole bunch

938
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 3: of trends that pop for me late in the season.

939
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 3: Week fourteen forward in a division game is probably your rematch.

940
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 3: So this is a team you're very familiar against. You

941
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 3: know what's coming. There's probably weather involved in a lot

942
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 3: of these cases, and the defenses usually have the advantage

943
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 3: of late. So first one is the first game on

944
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 3: the slate next week Thursday Night, Packers Lions under fifty

945
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 3: one and a half. That is a big number, and

946
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 3: look it's the Packers and Lions. It's not exactly enticing

947
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 3: to go under on that team, but we're going under.

948
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 3: The number. Not the teams here. The Lions defense is

949
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 3: pretty good top three run and pass defense. Green Bays

950
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 3: defense has been trending up. I know there's some turnover

951
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 3: lock in there, but still pretty good. Another thing I

952
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 3: like a lot. I'm bringing to you a lot to

953
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 3: run the football here. Packers other than Philly, have been

954
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 3: the most run heavy team in the league. And we

955
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 3: know Detroit wants to run. They always won to run

956
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,479
Speaker 3: the football. So last time they played about a month ago,

957
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 3: twenty four to fourteen, Detroit wins the game. These teams

958
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 3: combined for nine drives of eight players or longer, so

959
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 3: they're chewing up the clock just moving the ball, run

960
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 3: the football. The first quarter had two possessions, we didn't

961
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 3: finished the second possession in the first quarter twenty four

962
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 3: to fourteen, thirty eight points, including a pick six and

963
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 3: a garbage touchdown late in the game. So this is

964
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 3: a matchup that really didn't have points. And here's a

965
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 3: couple of those trends for you. Division trend Week fourteen

966
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 3: and forward home favored under seven points under his one

967
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 3: twenty seven ninety four to one, fifty eight percent to

968
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 3: the under. And then Week fourteen and four Division game

969
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 3: where the home team. Detroit has gone under and four

970
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 3: or more of their last five games, so they've been

971
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 3: an under team lately. Fifty three, thirty five and two

972
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 3: to the under sixty one percent there, Dan Campbell. When

973
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 3: it's fifty one or higher, ten and five to the under.

974
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 3: If they do go over, it's usually because Detroit just

975
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 3: put up like a monster number. I don't think we're

976
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 3: gonna get that here. And then Thursday unders fifty one

977
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 3: total above twenty nine and one to the under sixty

978
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,280
Speaker 3: nine percent hit rate on that one. So there's lots

979
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 3: of trends here Thursday. If it's a high high number,

980
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 3: it's just too many points, usually on a kind of

981
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:37,840
Speaker 3: an ugly thing. Yeah. Look, I know they're kind of

982
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 3: on full rest because it goes Thanksgiving to Thursday here,

983
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 3: but fifty one is the last high key number. I

984
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 3: think this one's going to drop below that because of it.

985
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 3: So I will take the under fifty one and a

986
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 3: half Packers Lions Thursday Night.

987
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, last four Lions home games with fifty or more

988
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 2: have all gone under. Campbell twelve and seven to the under,

989
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 2: fifty or more going under and more importingly going under

990
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 2: by four point five points per game, So I don't

991
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:05,719
Speaker 2: mind it all right.

992
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,240
Speaker 3: Number two Seahawks Cardinals. I tease this one earlier under

993
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 3: forty five and a half. I kind of made the

994
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 3: case already if you listen to those game recaps. I

995
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 3: think both defenses are really trending up much better than

996
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 3: people think right now. Cardinals hold the Vikings to two

997
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy three yards today, one to eight on

998
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 3: third down. That defense that I thought was the least

999
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 3: talented defense in the league. Credit to Nick Ralis, the

1000
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 3: defensive coordinator. There, top half the league by DVA overall,

1001
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 3: against the run, against the pass. I only think they're great,

1002
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 3: but they are hanging in there, and they are definitely

1003
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 3: trending up. Seattle's defense we've talked a lot about. They

1004
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 3: totally shut down the Jets after the early drive outside

1005
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 3: of Week four to six. In that stretch, they played

1006
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:48,239
Speaker 3: three games eleven days. They're missing like half of the starters,

1007
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 3: they cut a couple of linebackers, they traded for Ernest Jones.

1008
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 3: Since then, I think the numbers basically say this is

1009
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 3: a top five defense. Excluding that little three game stretch there.

1010
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 3: They have looked the part. This last month or so

1011
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 3: and look, these teams just played two weeks ago. It

1012
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 3: was sixteen to six in that game, and one of

1013
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 3: the touchdowns was a pick six. I mentioned that because

1014
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 3: you assume that's not going to come up again. So

1015
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 3: the offense is combined for sixteen points in that game.

1016
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 3: Both quarterbacks got sacked five times. Sale can't block anybody

1017
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 3: right now, Neither team could run, neither team hit three

1018
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:25,720
Speaker 3: hundred yards. So same division trends here as Packers Lions

1019
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 3: week fourteen to FOURD home favored under seven fifty eight

1020
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:31,840
Speaker 3: percent of the under, home team going under four to

1021
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 3: the last five sixty one percent of the under. Not

1022
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 3: really a key number quite here, forty five and a half,

1023
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:39,839
Speaker 3: but forty to forty four is kind of a block

1024
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 3: of key numbers. So I'd rather just grab this now.

1025
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 3: I know what's the side I want to be on.

1026
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 3: So this is kind of your bonus pick here under

1027
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,280
Speaker 3: forty five and a half Seahawks Cardinals.

1028
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 2: Yes, since November one, two teams are undefeated to the

1029
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 2: under Falcons Cardinals. Cardinals are going under in their four

1030
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 2: games by ten point one points per game. What else

1031
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 2: you got?

1032
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 1: All? Right?

1033
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 3: Last one? This is my favorite actually, but we're doing

1034
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,760
Speaker 3: them in order. Sunday night football. We love our Sunday

1035
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 3: Night unders. Chargers Chiefs under forty three and a half.

1036
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 3: And this one is already moving and already moved past

1037
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,359
Speaker 3: a key numbers. So this one you've got to get

1038
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 3: right now. But both defenses are fading a little bit.

1039
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 3: We've talked about that with both these teams, but they're

1040
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 3: still top ten on the season. Chargers offense was awful

1041
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 3: today against a bad Falcons defense. They've not been great

1042
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 3: without JK. Dobbins. I know we joked earlier about who's JK. Dobbins.

1043
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 3: They're not running the ball well when he's out there,

1044
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 3: but they try too. Anyways, the Chiefs have Isiah Pacheco back.

1045
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 3: They're running a little bit, and I think they might

1046
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 3: be able to run on the Chargers, who are not

1047
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 3: great defensively against the one we've seen them get hurt lately.

1048
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 3: I'm fine with that. Go ahead, twelve play, run drives

1049
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 3: up and down the field, do your thing. Neither of

1050
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 3: these teams really has explosive weapons, right, These are teams.

1051
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 3: You get bored watching their games, just long boring drives.

1052
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 3: Chargers seven thirteen today. How many times have we seen

1053
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 3: that game. Well, I'll tell you one of them. Week four,

1054
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 3: they played the Chiefs seventeen to ten. Know what I

1055
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: remember about that game? Nothing because nothing happened in that game.

1056
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 3: The Chargers had two hud and twenty four yards. Nothing

1057
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 3: important happened in that game. I think that sets up well.

1058
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 3: Here I had eight trends and bet Labs popped to

1059
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 3: the under on this one. I might get that on

1060
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 3: a side. Sometimes I never get that many on under.

1061
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 3: So here's some of the trends that stick out again

1062
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 3: with the home favorite under seven in a late division

1063
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 3: game fifty eight percent Week fourteen and four division game outdoors,

1064
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 3: which this one will be forty seven degrees or blow

1065
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,760
Speaker 3: ninety nine, sixty and forty to the under sixty two percent.

1066
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 3: That's a pretty strong one. Looks like ten mil an

1067
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 3: hour wins. We're a week away, so who knows, but

1068
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 3: it is outside in Kansas City in the winter. Sixty

1069
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 3: one percent of the under for windy unders since twenty

1070
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,359
Speaker 3: twenty one. Jim Harbaugh, when it's forty four, blow forty

1071
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 3: four points fifty nine percent of the under. And then

1072
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 3: you said it already, we love our prime time unders.

1073
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 3: Depends on the day this year, but apparently we still

1074
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:05,839
Speaker 3: like Sunday Night and sixty one percent of the under

1075
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 3: primetime since twenty nineteen. Chargers are eight and forty the

1076
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 3: under this season. They had not had a forty point game,

1077
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 3: not them, but the whole game until the last three

1078
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 3: in a row. So it felt like, okay, regression, the

1079
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 3: things have cut up to them. Well, that was against

1080
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 3: the Bengals, that was against the Ravens. That was against

1081
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 3: really good offenses, which sadly it's not Patrick Mahomes and

1082
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 3: the Chiefs right now. It's just not. We all watch

1083
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 3: the game, we know what's happening. Back to thirty points

1084
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 3: against Atlanta day for a Chargers game hereward is thirty

1085
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 3: seven point three on the season. This one's already moving.

1086
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 3: There's forty four and a half this morning, forty three

1087
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:45,319
Speaker 3: and a half. Now the juice is coming in on

1088
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 3: the under. I think it's gonna keep going that way.

1089
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 3: Forty forty one, forty three, forty four of those are

1090
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 3: all key numbers and it's going to keep sliding through

1091
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 3: that range. So under forty three and a half Sunday Night,

1092
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,839
Speaker 3: get all three of these Division unders. We already played one.

1093
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:02,360
Speaker 3: We already got the Steelers Browns under as well. That

1094
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:03,919
Speaker 3: one went up a little bit. I'm not too worried.

1095
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,320
Speaker 3: I like that one still as well. Division under is

1096
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 3: late in the season, especially outdoors. These teams hate each other,

1097
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 3: they know each other too well. Got to give a

1098
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 3: favor to the defense and take the under here.

1099
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 2: Ye, I was gonna say, if you can find forty four,

1100
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 2: even buying up maybe minus one fifteen, it's worth it.

1101
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 2: Forty four is very key. I will say this, and

1102
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:27,760
Speaker 2: this is very unexpected. Mahomes home starts twenty and seven

1103
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 2: to the under. I'm gonna call it Arrowhead because I'll

1104
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 2: always call it Arrowhead. At Arrowhead last three seasons twenty

1105
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:36,959
Speaker 2: and seven, seventy four percent to the under, going under

1106
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 2: by five point four points per game. He is the

1107
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: most profitable quarterback to the under and his home games

1108
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 2: over the last three years. So just completely the trend

1109
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:48,879
Speaker 2: for him in that situation. Slow it up, run the ball,

1110
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 2: and that's exactly what the Chargers do. So makes complete sense.

1111
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 2: All right. Before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick

1112
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:57,760
Speaker 2: Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1113
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, Evan, happy to be back, on the

1114
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast as we recap NFL Week thirteen, not

1115
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:06,919
Speaker 1: quite to the finish line yet we got my Denver

1116
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 1: Broncos playing on Monday night. Don't forget about that. This

1117
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 1: was kind of an interesting day. There were several games

1118
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 1: and several teams that got there for the public, but

1119
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 1: it wasn't like it was an onslaught. I talked to

1120
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 1: multiple sportsbooks here in Vegas and nationally and none of

1121
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,000
Speaker 1: them said, hey, we got buried today. But they also

1122
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:30,080
Speaker 1: generally weren't winners for the day, and what bears that

1123
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 1: out a little bit if you're looking at BETMGM specifically nationally,

1124
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,240
Speaker 1: the most bet team for spread tickets was the Bills.

1125
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:42,759
Speaker 1: Steelers were number two. Texans were number three. So obviously

1126
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: the Bills got there against the Niners in the Sunday

1127
00:56:46,280 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 1: night game Houston. Depends on when you picked them up.

1128
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 1: They did not cover three and a half though, so

1129
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 1: that one fell in favor of the book. But the

1130
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: Bills and Steelers both certainly got there for the betters,

1131
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 1: and then most teams for spread money. Again, this is

1132
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:04,720
Speaker 1: on straight that's a betam gym. You had the Bills,

1133
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and the Vikings. So the Bills were the

1134
00:57:07,640 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 1: only team that got there in that respect. So but

1135
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 1: they got there in a big way and probably helped

1136
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 1: finish off a lot of moneyline parlays at the end

1137
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: of the night by just rolling over San Francisco in

1138
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 1: the snow. And if you took a look at at

1139
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 1: Draft Kings another national look, you'd think the public had

1140
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: a pretty good day, and they did. It just wasn't

1141
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 1: like I said, No odds makers came out and said

1142
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 1: we had got absolutely slaughtered. They just it was kind

1143
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 1: of nibbles and nibbles. Scots Shelton that Venham jam Nevada said.

1144
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: We lost a little bit in the early window and

1145
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 1: a little bit in the late window, and a little

1146
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:41,280
Speaker 1: bit more at night. It was just kind of an accumulation.

1147
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: But Draft Kings as an owner, just a moment ago,

1148
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 1: the top five and spread tickets were Texans, Bucks, Seahawks, Bills, Commanders,

1149
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 1: and all five of those I believe. Oh, the Buccaneers

1150
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: did not come, but the other four did. And then

1151
00:57:56,200 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: in terms of spread money at DraftKings, Bills, Texans, Bucks, Seahawks, Chargers,

1152
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:04,720
Speaker 1: and let me step back and moment on that ticket count,

1153
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 1: Texans obviously depending on whether you got three or three

1154
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: and a half, either got to push or a loss there.

1155
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 1: So by money at DraftKings, Bills, Texans, Bucks, Seahawks, Chargers,

1156
00:58:15,040 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 1: Chargers barely get there in that game, barely get the

1157
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 1: win because goodness gracious Kirk Cousins threw a gaggle of interceptions,

1158
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 1: including a pick six. So there were, like I said,

1159
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 1: there were pockets that kind of went the sportsbooks ways

1160
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: and some public plays that certainly went the public's way.

1161
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 1: Public loved the Eagles on the money line. Public love

1162
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:38,040
Speaker 1: the Steelers on the money line. So the two Pennsylvania

1163
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:40,479
Speaker 1: teams both get there on the money line, and in fact,

1164
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:43,439
Speaker 1: at BETMGM there was a one hundred thousand dollars bet

1165
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 1: on Eagles plus one twenty on the money line against

1166
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 1: the Ravens, and the Eagles win that game twenty four

1167
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 1: to nineteen. Taking a little peak ahead to the money

1168
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 1: Night game and my Broncos against the Cleveland Browns. Look,

1169
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 1: this game doesn't get really heavily bet until day of

1170
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 1: game as we're talking right now, but even Sunday this

1171
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 1: was way lopsided toward the Broncos at BETAMGM, particularly eighty

1172
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 1: eight percent of spread bets ninety two percent of spread

1173
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:15,200
Speaker 1: money on Denver. In this game, people jumping on the

1174
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:19,439
Speaker 1: Bonix bandwagon. Broncos suddenly becoming kind of a public team

1175
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 1: for sure, So there's no doubt that the book is

1176
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 1: going to be rooting for Cleveland to at least cover

1177
00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:28,440
Speaker 1: tomorrow night. And honestly, the live moneyline, parlance and such

1178
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 1: are certainly going to be going to Denver, so they

1179
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 1: probably would love, love love the Brown's outright upset in

1180
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 1: Denver tomorrow night. But of course we're rooting for the

1181
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 1: people on our side of the counter, and I'm rooting

1182
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 1: for my Denver Broncos, So I say, go Broncos, thanks

1183
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 1: again for having me, and we'll talk to you next week.

1184
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:51,280
Speaker 2: All right. We've gotten through twelve games, three picks, and

1185
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 2: that's it. That's the podcast. That's what we've done, all right.

1186
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 2: So next week is the last week for buys. I

1187
00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: believe we have six teams on by next week and

1188
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:03,000
Speaker 2: then buys are done. We're in the home stretch. So

1189
01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 2: this has been the Action Network podcast. I'm Evan Abrams,

1190
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 2: that's Brandon Edison. We will be be back next week

1191
01:00:09,720 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 2: and every week after that. As a recap, after the

1192
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 2: Sunday night football game, and that's it. Enjoy the slate,

1193
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 2: enjoy the bets, and we'll see you guys soon.

1194
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1195
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1196
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler