Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Daniel Jurgen is
Speaker 1: known for oil. We have lots of questions on oil.
Speaker 1: He has a title vice Chairman at I h S Market.
Speaker 1: He also writes books, including my book of the Year
Speaker 1: a few years ago, The New Map. We're thrilled at
Speaker 1: Daniel Jorgan could join us today as we consider the
Speaker 1: crushing commanding heights of the United States and in New
Speaker 1: Europe and the collapse of the Russian Federation in some form.
Speaker 1: Daniel gonna thank you so much for joining us today
Speaker 1: and your commanding heights. You magi sterily talk about the
Speaker 1: shift of Russia in the nineties, you say the marriage
Speaker 1: of the hedgehog UH and onto the new Gorbachev era.
Speaker 1: Are we seeing a shift now with Putin? Is there
Speaker 1: an outcome that you can see absolutely what we're seeing
Speaker 1: that that process that began in the nineties of Russia
Speaker 1: connecting with the world economy, being integrated with the world
Speaker 1: economy is very rapidly going in reverse now as these
Speaker 1: crushing sanctions are being imposed. Russia is being disconnected from
Speaker 1: the world economy. What does the new map for Vladimir
Speaker 1: Putin look like? Uh, he grossly miscalculated. I think he
Speaker 1: obviously thought this would be quick. I think he also overestimated, Uh,
Speaker 1: Europe's dependence on Russian energy and that that would be
Speaker 1: his high card. Turned out that, among other things, with
Speaker 1: extraordinary growth in us l n G, which was nowhere
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and this year will be the largest
Speaker 1: llengy exporter in the world, as offset Russian gas in Europe.
Speaker 1: And it may be tough depending what happens, but that
Speaker 1: that it's manageable, and so he doesn't have that high
Speaker 1: carn Let's talk about the word manageable and I'll take
Speaker 1: it to one extreme and you can maybe run me
Speaker 1: back in. Are we really thinking about a Europe without
Speaker 1: Russian energy in our future? No? I don't think that
Speaker 1: happens for a long time. And sometimes people overestimate. Russian
Speaker 1: gas was twenty of Europe's gas last year, big number,
Speaker 1: But that means that about came from other sources. So,
Speaker 1: but I think it will uh when this crisis is over,
Speaker 1: whatever form may and takes, Russia will be a supplier,
Speaker 1: but will be changed is no longer will it be
Speaker 1: seen as Russia is a reliable supplier, which they've been
Speaker 1: saying for fifty years. And we heard it from the Germans.
Speaker 1: They're going to build ellen Gy receiving terminals so that
Speaker 1: they can have diversity and pen also in the world
Speaker 1: market and not be held so much rigidly to Russian gas.
Speaker 1: And nord Stream two is going to that pipeline is
Speaker 1: going to lie and suspended animation beneath the Baltic Sea. Dan,
Speaker 1: you mentioned the Germans. The legacy of Chancellor Merkele. The
Speaker 1: history books don't look kind right now as we look
Speaker 1: back on her, and I just wonder what happens when
Speaker 1: nuclear from here down. And if you can take a moment,
Speaker 1: because we have the time with you, just take a
Speaker 1: moment to walk through what a monster change we've just
Speaker 1: seen from a German chancellor in just a couple of days. Well,
Speaker 1: I think that chacelor merkel it was. It was a
Speaker 1: different circumstance. She had no illusions about Putin. I mean
Speaker 1: she could speak Russian, and I mean from the beginning
Speaker 1: when he's knowing that she had a fear of dogs,
Speaker 1: brought his big dog into the room. So and I
Speaker 1: remember being in St. Petersburg when the two of them
Speaker 1: were on the stage together. The ice was palpable to
Speaker 1: the audience, but the circumstances were different, and Putting at
Speaker 1: that point up here to be a more rational. It's
Speaker 1: tough actor. But I think now with the new Chancellor
Speaker 1: of the statements, I think if she and power, she
Speaker 1: probably would have said the same thing. But it is
Speaker 1: a dramatic reversal. And Putin is one of his major
Speaker 1: games was to welcome, to break NATO, to weaken NATO.
Speaker 1: He's done just the opposite. He's brought it together and
Speaker 1: Germany is going to go to two percent of GDP
Speaker 1: for defense spending. We talk about the consequences for Russia
Speaker 1: as they get locked out of the financial system, but
Speaker 1: can you game out the financial consequences for Germany, for
Speaker 1: the United States, for the rest of Europe as we
Speaker 1: do get some sort of uncertainty, not only about the
Speaker 1: carve outs for the energy sector. In all of these
Speaker 1: sanctions which is how feasible the payment for any of
Speaker 1: this will be. Well, I think that's the payment system
Speaker 1: even you know, it's been said initially that the goal
Speaker 1: was to carve out energy so would not hit Europe.
Speaker 1: But risk officers are not going to are going to
Speaker 1: be very cautious. They're gonna overcomply. You already see that
Speaker 1: people are not doing letters of credit. Tanker owners are
Speaker 1: going to think twice before sending their tankers. So the
Speaker 1: energy trade is going to be disrupted. This is not
Speaker 1: going to be a smooth thing. Uh. How bad it
Speaker 1: gets depends on how the war goes, what the Russians do,
Speaker 1: and so forth. But I think you're gonna see, uh,
Speaker 1: in effect, a sanction in a sanction on Russian energy,
Speaker 1: just by the behavior of market actors. And everybody today
Speaker 1: I know is calling their lawyers. Can you understand what
Speaker 1: the sanctions are. We don't want to make a mistake here,
Speaker 1: We don't want to get a six billion dollar fine
Speaker 1: a year from now. Meanwhile, we are getting news about
Speaker 1: a possible oil release, a crude release from strategic petroleum
Speaker 1: reserves of a number of major oil consuming nations, including
Speaker 1: the U S. Somewhere of seventy million barrels. Do you
Speaker 1: think this will move the dial at all? I think
Speaker 1: it will. I think that if you add up what
Speaker 1: is it, US production is going to increase a million
Speaker 1: barrels a day. There could be more oil out of
Speaker 1: the Gulf. If their sanctions are taken off Iran, you
Speaker 1: get a million barrels a day. And I think it
Speaker 1: was inevitable that they would use strategic stocks. After all,
Speaker 1: this is what strategic stocks were built for. And so
Speaker 1: I know the administration certainly is wants to go in
Speaker 1: that direction. Be interesting to see what the Chinese do
Speaker 1: this time. Dan, you're aging. As I mentioned, you're wonderful.
Speaker 1: The New Map was my book of the year a
Speaker 1: few years ago. Not that long ago, was only a
Speaker 1: year and a half. A year and a half ago,
Speaker 1: I can't remember. The brain freezes. Farrell keeps me up
Speaker 1: to speed. Is the only reason I keep going, Dan,
Speaker 1: you're again. I'm reading Putin's World by Angelus Stent, and
Speaker 1: i've in February. I've made it my book of the
Speaker 1: year because of this war and what is so important, Dan,
Speaker 1: and this folds right into Commanding Heights is two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, when NATO and buch Arest said we're gonna
Speaker 1: push east, and Robert Gates and Condo Liza Rice said no, no, no,
Speaker 1: and they were overruled. Yank this forward to now with
Speaker 1: what you perceive NATO will do, given the oil economy,
Speaker 1: given our new capitalism, and given America's true commanding heights,
Speaker 1: what do you expect NATO to do in two thousand
Speaker 1: twenty three. Well, first, let me say I'm very pleased
Speaker 1: to see that that's your your book of the year.
Speaker 1: Since I'm related to Angela, so uh, that's I'll pass
Speaker 1: that on. But I think that in terms of what
Speaker 1: NATO does, I think it's a strengthening of it. I
Speaker 1: think it's particularly the change in Germany is the one
Speaker 1: that's going to be most notable. It's going to be
Speaker 1: a much more coordinated and it isn't you know, it
Speaker 1: was kind of frame at the edges. It it isn't anymore.
Speaker 1: And you may see Sweden being interested, you may see
Speaker 1: Finland being interested in joining NATO. So it's completely achieved,
Speaker 1: just the opposite of what Vladimir Putin wanted. Danie again,
Speaker 1: fantastic to catch up with you, sir, as a white
Speaker 1: on geopolitics, on this crude market of market right now
Speaker 1: and foreign exchange Jane follow joins us how to foreign
Speaker 1: exchange strategy at Rubble Bank with all of Rabble banks
Speaker 1: commercial relationships across Europe. Jane Folly, from your strategy standpoint,
Speaker 1: what is the state of liquidity within the European financial system? Well,
Speaker 1: I think liquidity quite clearly there is none really inert
Speaker 1: that the Russian ruble are very very little. But I
Speaker 1: think if we move into the agricultural space, I think
Speaker 1: that's where perhaps the spotlight is beginning to shine. Certainly
Speaker 1: it can be a little bit more difficult. We're not
Speaker 1: we're not used to having crisis at effects at agricultural
Speaker 1: prices or commodity prices in this area. So we are
Speaker 1: seeing signs of a little bit stress and really unfamiliar
Speaker 1: conditions and those sorts of markets that really threw out.
Speaker 1: We've been talking, Jane about how Ruble will open for
Speaker 1: trading beginning last evening six seven pm whatever time that was.
Speaker 1: Is Ruble fully open for trading? From where you sit,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be fully open really
Speaker 1: for a long time. You've got to bear in mind
Speaker 1: that because of the sanctions, so many banks are just
Speaker 1: unable to trade with Russian counterpassing, and therefore automatically you
Speaker 1: get a real crushing of of liquidity, so that the
Speaker 1: prices that we see on the screen, you know, just
Speaker 1: to seem what we've seen an enormous spread traded in
Speaker 1: the course of today compared with where we would normally
Speaker 1: see the Russian ruble. But again that's just a reflection
Speaker 1: of the fact that very few people are are able
Speaker 1: to trade it right now, so that really is is
Speaker 1: not a proper market and it's probably going to be
Speaker 1: like that for some time. Jane, taking a step back.
Speaker 1: Over the weekend, the backdrop changed materially in a lot
Speaker 1: of people calling the US's actions and Europe's actions a
Speaker 1: weaponization of the hegemony of the dollar, basically saying that
Speaker 1: they are using the dollars predominance here to push Russia
Speaker 1: out of the financial system, that it would have ramifications
Speaker 1: longer term for the dollar and it would weaken it.
Speaker 1: We're not seeing that in the market. It's quite the opposite.
Speaker 1: But do you think that there is validity to this argument?
Speaker 1: That is an argument that is not new, you know,
Speaker 1: that is an argument which has been going on really
Speaker 1: at least eight or so years or you know, we
Speaker 1: can take it back to the Crimea for instance, or
Speaker 1: eight years ago, where and Russia really then tried to
Speaker 1: protect itself against some Western sanctions, really ramping up those
Speaker 1: from exchange reserves, increasing itself sufficiency in food also and
Speaker 1: also trying to have more invoices that were not US
Speaker 1: dollar denominated. Now the dollar is of course that that
Speaker 1: the primary currency in the global payment system. That is
Speaker 1: why sanctions have been used by the US government, you know,
Speaker 1: to such an extent, think Iran, and certainly it is
Speaker 1: a weapon if you like to try and force another
Speaker 1: country to really back down on what they want to do.
Speaker 1: And it's been used very powerful in this instance. And
Speaker 1: and really you know, with the blessing of all of
Speaker 1: the US is Western allies, Jane, there is a concern
Speaker 1: that there will be a friction and so will be
Speaker 1: huge liquidity issues within the major markets, money markets, dollar financing.
Speaker 1: And there has been some speculation, including by the likes
Speaker 1: of Credit Swee Result and Posar, that the Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: will have to extend f X swap lines and do
Speaker 1: other types of intervention. Do you see any signs that
Speaker 1: will be required? I think sometimes that the fact that
Speaker 1: the Central Bank is is willing to do it might
Speaker 1: be enough, because often what creates that these liquidity shortages
Speaker 1: it's just sheer panic um and and people trying to
Speaker 1: get their hands on on dollar liquidity just in case,
Speaker 1: not that they need it now or or even in
Speaker 1: a few days time. So the fact often that the
Speaker 1: Fed may promise that it's there that these liquidity lines
Speaker 1: are possible if if needed, could be enough to see
Speaker 1: the tension. So this is really about stopping market panic.
Speaker 1: And we've got to remember that, yes and Friday we
Speaker 1: did see some ports being shut down in the Black Sea,
Speaker 1: but right now we don't have a huge amount of
Speaker 1: disruption yet to you know, food certainly or energy, and
Speaker 1: this is where the panic could come from. And this
Speaker 1: is perhaps why some of the sanctions that have been
Speaker 1: announced with respect to that the swift system haven't yet
Speaker 1: been universal. I think Europe would like to know that
Speaker 1: it can still get its hands on some Russian supplies
Speaker 1: of energy. That's really necessary for a country like Germany,
Speaker 1: which of course has a huge amount of industry which
Speaker 1: will be using that Russian energy. So this is this
Speaker 1: is it's really important how it's managed to stop that panic.
Speaker 1: That may then require some of those extra liquidity lines
Speaker 1: to change. Just to build on something you mentioned earlier.
Speaker 1: The rubles not a proper market, it's certainly not this morning,
Speaker 1: and to build it out just a little bit more
Speaker 1: when foreigners can actually sell their Russian assets when the
Speaker 1: market reopens again, what kind of pressure would you expect
Speaker 1: on this currency. A huge amount of pressure. We've seen
Speaker 1: for instance that that the that the news from BP,
Speaker 1: that's just one that you've mentioned a little bit earlier
Speaker 1: on you know, selling it's it's Russian stake. I think
Speaker 1: also that the WE Sovereign Wealth Fund at the biggest
Speaker 1: often wealth fund in the world, and and it wants
Speaker 1: to sell it's it's Russian assets. It ends um bonds
Speaker 1: as well as a lot of stocks in Russia. Those
Speaker 1: will be going now, even if it's delayed, not just
Speaker 1: today or another few days. At some point in that
Speaker 1: setting will come and and and therefore we we can
Speaker 1: expect a lot of dawnside pressure on the ruble. Jane,
Speaker 1: thank you as always wonderful work at Atlanta. Jane Foley
Speaker 1: there rather bank on the markets. Ross Casters joins us
Speaker 1: now with a Global Allocation Fund at black Rock Ross,
Speaker 1: good morning to you. What did you do over the weekend?
Speaker 1: What does the money guy? What does black Rock do
Speaker 1: an institutional investment over a weekend? As we've seen, we'll
Speaker 1: tell good morning. Look, I think we're all trying to
Speaker 1: figure out what's going on now, and it's very hard,
Speaker 1: if not impossible, to predict what Vladimir Prudence going to do.
Speaker 1: But I think we do know when something's have changed.
Speaker 1: And you've got a position the poor portfolio, so we
Speaker 1: for months now we've been bringing down risk. We've been
Speaker 1: controlling our equity data. We've been looking at some of
Speaker 1: the early growth names that are really exposed given the
Speaker 1: rate volatility, and thinking about the long term implications for Europe,
Speaker 1: for energy, infrastructure, for macro volatility. Again, it's not a
Speaker 1: bold statement to say that the world has changed fairly
Speaker 1: dramatically over the last couple of weeks. Have you changed
Speaker 1: your allocations yet, russ Are you still just thinking about
Speaker 1: the ramifications? You know, thankfully we had been bringing down
Speaker 1: risk for several months aheaded this, and again I won't
Speaker 1: pretend that we had the foresight to see what's gonna
Speaker 1: happen in Russia, but certainly as that became more evident, UH,
Speaker 1: as you deal with a very tough balancing act for
Speaker 1: the FED even before the invasion of Ukraine. UH, it
Speaker 1: was prudent given tighter financial conditions, giving the uncertainty about
Speaker 1: rates to bring down risk in the portfolio, and obviously
Speaker 1: the events the last week or two when we support
Speaker 1: that for us, there's an idea that the FED will
Speaker 1: be forced to come in and actually support market liquidity,
Speaker 1: be market makers in the next couple of days and
Speaker 1: possibly even weeks, as some of these sanctions ripple through
Speaker 1: the financial markets. What's your view on the FED moving
Speaker 1: away from tightening financial conditions, moving away from the balance
Speaker 1: sheet reduction, moving away from even rate hikes in response
Speaker 1: to this conflict. You know, it's a great question, and
Speaker 1: I certainly think the FIT has to take this into consideration.
Speaker 1: Where are now in a world where there is very
Speaker 1: significant two sided risk, the impact on confidence, the effect
Speaker 1: of higher oil prices. Having said that, UH, it's not
Speaker 1: obvious that the FED has to completely or or can
Speaker 1: completely rip up their game plan because you still have
Speaker 1: a world in which domestic inflation is at a forty
Speaker 1: year high. It's broad, it's sticky, which means the FED
Speaker 1: is probably still going to have to hike. Where I
Speaker 1: think this has an impact is how much do they
Speaker 1: go in March? How quickly did they start to change
Speaker 1: the balance sheet? But the direction of travel still has
Speaker 1: to be towards the removal of some accommodation. RUSS, where
Speaker 1: and what you focused on in this market at the
Speaker 1: moment through today? What will you be laser focused on?
Speaker 1: So I think there are a couple of things. You know, Jonathan,
Speaker 1: you were talking about the European banks. Obviously that is
Speaker 1: a big deal, as well as the impact on the
Speaker 1: overall European economy. You know, just given the geographic proximity,
Speaker 1: given the spike not just an oil but gas prices,
Speaker 1: you know, what is the economic effect in Europe? I
Speaker 1: think the seconds we're just talking about is the FED
Speaker 1: the third? Are we seeing any change in the behavior
Speaker 1: of US consumers so far? The answer that is no.
Speaker 1: We look at higher frequency data, there's still an underlying
Speaker 1: strength to U as economy. But does that change given
Speaker 1: higher oil prices and these just very very significant events
Speaker 1: going on in Europe? RUSS, where would you look for
Speaker 1: stress and do you see any signs of that now? Well?
Speaker 1: I think the stress obviously is going to come in
Speaker 1: a couple of places. One the names that are most
Speaker 1: exposed to Russia. Uh. You know again, fortunately outside of energy,
Speaker 1: outside of particular commodity. You know, this is not an
Speaker 1: economy with tremendous links to the rest of the world.
Speaker 1: But the transmission mechanisms really are about banking, about the
Speaker 1: financial system, and of course energy. We keep coming back
Speaker 1: to energy, and the reason for that is, you know again,
Speaker 1: if this would have happened five or six years ago,
Speaker 1: when oil was a lot lower, it would have created
Speaker 1: less stress economically than obviously it's created a new moment
Speaker 1: when you already had very high inflation in the US,
Speaker 1: in Europe and already elevated oil prices US. Thanks for
Speaker 1: inflexible this morning to catch how the buddy as Ohites
Speaker 1: Russ constrict that of black Crow. When I woke up
Speaker 1: this morning early and I did not know what I
Speaker 1: would see, I really underestimated John Farrell, what you and
Speaker 1: Lisa have lead on this morning, which is I guess
Speaker 1: I'm gonna call them non sanctions sanctions That would be
Speaker 1: a good thing, John, to start with Oliver Wyman's Daniel
Speaker 1: Tannem I think we can kill them SOLF sanctions down
Speaker 1: town a while like that they had of America's anti
Speaker 1: financial crime Oliver Wie and not my term, Dan, But
Speaker 1: let's work through it. We've had the sanctions and down
Speaker 1: what we're all trying to work out is how it
Speaker 1: works in practice. How many companies, even if they don't
Speaker 1: have to abide by these sanctions, choose to pull back anyway?
Speaker 1: Thanks John. And obviously if you see oil companies walk
Speaker 1: out of the market, I think that's a pretty good
Speaker 1: indication that you're going to see other businesses and I
Speaker 1: do like that self sanctions point can begin to walk out.
Speaker 1: I'm hearing from clients of other businesses beginning to draw
Speaker 1: up which they had actually started looking at in December,
Speaker 1: those exit plans. If do we really want to remain
Speaker 1: in this market? Is it viable for our business? Especially
Speaker 1: you have to remember Russia hasn't really responded with their
Speaker 1: version of whatever sanctions. Maybe so if you're a non
Speaker 1: Russian business operating the market, depending on the positions you take,
Speaker 1: this might be an untenable position. Look to see more
Speaker 1: companies announce their exits from Russia in the coming days.
Speaker 1: That's for certain. Down what that's what they're choosing to do.
Speaker 1: What are you suggesting they should do. What's the advice
Speaker 1: you've given them? I think, you know, look the advice
Speaker 1: I'm giving right now, there's still a lot that's on
Speaker 1: the table. You know, this is a squeeze on the
Speaker 1: Russian economy, that's for certain. And I said it on
Speaker 1: this show on Friday, and sadly it keeps coming true.
Speaker 1: Russia is well on its way to being treated like Iran,
Speaker 1: like Cuba in terms of being a truly isolated economy
Speaker 1: from humanity. So I think as I look to what
Speaker 1: businesses need to do, it's actually getting simpler the more
Speaker 1: significant the sanctions get, because there's less of a needle
Speaker 1: to threat and more just an exit that the business
Speaker 1: is too untenable to take on the risk. More broadly, so,
Speaker 1: going a little further dan is the risk for a
Speaker 1: lot of these companies that the US will remove the
Speaker 1: carve out for oil companies that the EU will do
Speaker 1: the same. Or is it just that it will be
Speaker 1: too complicated financially in order to execute some of these
Speaker 1: transactions with all of the numbers of sanctioned players, And
Speaker 1: it doesn't even make financial sense at this point to
Speaker 1: keep going. So I think that is a question to watch.
Speaker 1: And as you look at some of the sanctions, and
Speaker 1: the Treasury Department just put out the US Central Bank sanctions,
Speaker 1: I think as I was walking on here about ten
Speaker 1: minutes ago, we've still not seen what banks are being
Speaker 1: de swifted. And it was very clearly stated over the
Speaker 1: weekend that only some banks are going to be taken
Speaker 1: off swift. That's largely to facilitate that continued legal transactions.
Speaker 1: I think energy, you know, there was talk that the
Speaker 1: Central Bank is the nuclear option. Energy restrictions are the
Speaker 1: nuclear option with respect to Russia, and I would be
Speaker 1: surprised if you didn't see programs start leaking out that
Speaker 1: begin to shrink the amount of Russian energy that's allowed
Speaker 1: to be traded. You can't ban it. You have certain
Speaker 1: countries that are on reliant on Russian oil, Russian l
Speaker 1: n G. There's there's a whole sort of statistics that
Speaker 1: say this is a frontier economy in e M economy,
Speaker 1: and yet every statistic says it's the eleventh largest economy
Speaker 1: in the world. What is the power of Saudi Arabia
Speaker 1: right now to make Russia fifte largest economy in the world.
Speaker 1: I mean, Russia may fall out of the G twenty
Speaker 1: by the numbers this week at the rate things are going.
Speaker 1: I think Russia's position and how its allies or what
Speaker 1: few allies remain holding their line um is a really
Speaker 1: important point to see. I mean, this economy is in crisis.
Speaker 1: I mean you're seeing it's essentially being cut off from
Speaker 1: most of the West through these sanctions that have been imposed,
Speaker 1: which does create a broader opportunity for some other nations
Speaker 1: to increase their standing potentially. Well, that's exactly where I
Speaker 1: wanted to go. Who who can be I don't see
Speaker 1: how someone's advantaged by this war and by the economics
Speaker 1: and capitalism of this war. Your suggesting someone could be advantaged,
Speaker 1: I think possibly. I mean, frankly, this is the global
Speaker 1: response to this situation. With a few exceptions, we didn't
Speaker 1: see this much of a rallying around the flag globally
Speaker 1: with respect to COVID that we've seen with how Ukraine
Speaker 1: is being handled. So I don't think anyone's looking for
Speaker 1: this necessarily as an opportunity to leap frog other countries.
Speaker 1: From an economic stan point, I think right now there
Speaker 1: seems to be a pretty uniform focus on how to
Speaker 1: diffuse the situation and get Russia to pull back its
Speaker 1: troops and just getting some headlines from Boris Johnson in
Speaker 1: the UK pushing for Russia to be excluded fully from Swift, Dan,
Speaker 1: do you get the feeling this is an over so
Speaker 1: that the Swift comment, and this has been constantly used
Speaker 1: as some sort of silver bullet. If you take everyone
Speaker 1: off of Swift, any Western business is still performing, any
Speaker 1: legal trade, including energy trade, would have a very difficult
Speaker 1: time facilitating getting paid. So I really do think the
Speaker 1: complete Swift band is an overblown comment that's been made
Speaker 1: by a lot of politicians around the world. It's definitely
Speaker 1: not over. There's more companies that can be restricted, there's
Speaker 1: more sanctions that can be levied. You can drip out
Speaker 1: oligarch sanctions. And even over the weekend it was announced
Speaker 1: the US will begin potentially seizing physical assets. And who
Speaker 1: doesn't love to see a yacht seizure coming up? That
Speaker 1: could be what we say, d'antana bam if Oliver Wyman,
Speaker 1: thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Asked thanks
Speaker 1: for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten
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Speaker 1: and of course, on the terminal. I'm Tom keene In.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg.