WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Wei Li & Ian Bremmer

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea and

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<v Speaker 1>when we say thank you for an eventful January so far,

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<v Speaker 1>huge huge response on YouTube. Thank you so much for that.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's make this short and sweet Waylea from Blackrock was

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<v Speaker 1>just outstanding today talking about the mathematics of the yield curb,

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<v Speaker 1>talking about cash, but far more way Lee talking about

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<v Speaker 1>growth in America.

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<v Speaker 2>We expect US growth to be in the mid kind

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<v Speaker 2>of one point five percent real growth for twenty twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>which is slightly lowered the consensus, but resilient, certainly, certainly strong,

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<v Speaker 2>with potential to the upside depending on the fiscal side

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<v Speaker 2>of things. Now, having said that, yes, we have seen

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<v Speaker 2>wild swings in inflation expectations so far this year. You

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<v Speaker 2>talked about the inflation prend this week and it's impact

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<v Speaker 2>on break even pricing.

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<v Speaker 1>We leave there, and of course nominal GDP is something

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<v Speaker 1>I really sit on and it has been sprightly, to

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<v Speaker 1>say the least, huge heated opinion of that into the

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<v Speaker 1>late January FED meeting as well. Looking at the top line,

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<v Speaker 1>real growth plus inflation nominal GDP. Take out the inflation

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<v Speaker 1>and you have what's called real or inflation adjusted economic

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<v Speaker 1>growth every year. At this time, Ian Bremer and you

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<v Speaker 1>Erasia group, look at the top risks. Never have I

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<v Speaker 1>seen a set and coalesced sense of ten risks centering

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<v Speaker 1>around a new president of the United States. Ian Bremer

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<v Speaker 1>has just been on fire recently writing about his phrase

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<v Speaker 1>of G zero world. It is here. Here is Ian

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<v Speaker 1>Bremer looking at top risks.

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<v Speaker 3>This year, the Americans are embracing the Chinese worldview that

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<v Speaker 3>has served China so well over the last thirty five years.

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<v Speaker 3>It's transactional about rule of law. They don't care what

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<v Speaker 3>your political system or economic system is like. They will

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<v Speaker 3>engage with you bilaterally with the intention of being more

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<v Speaker 3>powerful than you, and therefore you have to play by

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<v Speaker 3>their rules. And what the Americans are saying is, actually, China,

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<v Speaker 3>we can do that, and we can do it a

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<v Speaker 3>lot better than you can, because we're a lot stronger

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<v Speaker 3>than you, by the way, And that's really what Trump

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<v Speaker 3>is saying. And it does come at a time when

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<v Speaker 3>America's adversaries Russia in deep decline, Iran having lost their

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<v Speaker 3>empire by proxy the Chinese, and the worst economic condition

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<v Speaker 3>since the nineties maybe the seventies are particularly weak. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's an interesting moment to try this experiment. A lot

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<v Speaker 3>of things are probably going to break as a consequence.

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<v Speaker 1>Ian Bremmer of your RASIR group there, I really can't

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<v Speaker 1>say enough about the effort this year. This weekend I'll

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<v Speaker 1>get on social it's all over the place, but let

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<v Speaker 1>me redo that this weekend e Rasia Group's top ten

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<v Speaker 1>risks for twenty twenty five. I'll do that on Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>linked I can't say enough about the team effort to

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<v Speaker 1>drive the conversation forward here. It's been really an extraordinary

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen days. I believe it is deep into two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty five on your commute across the nation and

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<v Speaker 1>worldwide at the office at home. YouTube growing each and

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<v Speaker 1>every day for a subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for the attention on YouTube and on YouTube podcasts. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a single best idea.