1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea and 2 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: when we say thank you for an eventful January so far, 3 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: huge huge response on YouTube. Thank you so much for that. 4 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 1: Let's make this short and sweet Waylea from Blackrock was 5 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: just outstanding today talking about the mathematics of the yield curb, 6 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: talking about cash, but far more way Lee talking about 7 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: growth in America. 8 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: We expect US growth to be in the mid kind 9 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: of one point five percent real growth for twenty twenty five, 10 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: which is slightly lowered the consensus, but resilient, certainly, certainly strong, 11 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 2: with potential to the upside depending on the fiscal side 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 2: of things. Now, having said that, yes, we have seen 13 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: wild swings in inflation expectations so far this year. You 14 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: talked about the inflation prend this week and it's impact 15 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 2: on break even pricing. 16 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: We leave there, and of course nominal GDP is something 17 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: I really sit on and it has been sprightly, to 18 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: say the least, huge heated opinion of that into the 19 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: late January FED meeting as well. Looking at the top line, 20 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 1: real growth plus inflation nominal GDP. Take out the inflation 21 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 1: and you have what's called real or inflation adjusted economic 22 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: growth every year. At this time, Ian Bremer and you 23 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: Erasia group, look at the top risks. Never have I 24 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: seen a set and coalesced sense of ten risks centering 25 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: around a new president of the United States. Ian Bremer 26 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,639 Speaker 1: has just been on fire recently writing about his phrase 27 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: of G zero world. It is here. Here is Ian 28 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: Bremer looking at top risks. 29 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 3: This year, the Americans are embracing the Chinese worldview that 30 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 3: has served China so well over the last thirty five years. 31 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 3: It's transactional about rule of law. They don't care what 32 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 3: your political system or economic system is like. They will 33 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 3: engage with you bilaterally with the intention of being more 34 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 3: powerful than you, and therefore you have to play by 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 3: their rules. And what the Americans are saying is, actually, China, 36 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 3: we can do that, and we can do it a 37 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 3: lot better than you can, because we're a lot stronger 38 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 3: than you, by the way, And that's really what Trump 39 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 3: is saying. And it does come at a time when 40 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 3: America's adversaries Russia in deep decline, Iran having lost their 41 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: empire by proxy the Chinese, and the worst economic condition 42 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 3: since the nineties maybe the seventies are particularly weak. So 43 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 3: it's an interesting moment to try this experiment. A lot 44 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 3: of things are probably going to break as a consequence. 45 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: Ian Bremmer of your RASIR group there, I really can't 46 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: say enough about the effort this year. This weekend I'll 47 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: get on social it's all over the place, but let 48 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: me redo that this weekend e Rasia Group's top ten 49 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: risks for twenty twenty five. I'll do that on Twitter 50 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: linked I can't say enough about the team effort to 51 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: drive the conversation forward here. It's been really an extraordinary 52 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 1: seventeen days. I believe it is deep into two thousand 53 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: and twenty five on your commute across the nation and 54 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: worldwide at the office at home. YouTube growing each and 55 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: every day for a subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Thank you 56 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: for the attention on YouTube and on YouTube podcasts. This 57 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: is a single best idea.