WEBVTT - Millennials at 40 Are Falling Behind Their Parents

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well US infectious disease expert

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Fauci saying it was possible the world would never

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<v Speaker 1>find out the precise origin of the coronavirus pandemic. We

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<v Speaker 1>know President Biden just last month ordering a new ninety

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<v Speaker 1>day review from the intelligence community about the possible origins

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<v Speaker 1>of the virus. To him, we've got that going on.

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<v Speaker 1>Then we've got the Bloomberg Big Take about how the

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<v Speaker 1>world's best hope to end the pandemic really just needs

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<v Speaker 1>more doses. Yeah, and here to help us dive into

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<v Speaker 1>all that and more is Darryl Gaskin, Professor of Health

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<v Speaker 1>Policy and Management at the Johns Hopkins at Bloomberg School

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<v Speaker 1>of Public Health, joins us on the phone from Maryland.

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<v Speaker 1>The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health is supported

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<v Speaker 1>by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Gaskin, thanks so much for joining us. How are you?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing well and how are you doing doing well? Thanks?

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<v Speaker 1>How important is it that that we actually find the

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<v Speaker 1>origins of the coronavirus? Well, I think with regard to

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<v Speaker 1>UM finding the origins of the coronavirus, it's it's I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's more important that we know what the virus

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<v Speaker 1>is and how to treat it as opposed to just

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<v Speaker 1>UM finding its origin UM. And I think we've done

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty good job in terms of gore mapping the

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<v Speaker 1>DNA of the of the of the virus itself and

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<v Speaker 1>then developing vaccines to try to combat the virus. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's that's really the major thing that we

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<v Speaker 1>ought to be doing, and then subsequently learning how to

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<v Speaker 1>treat virus right exactly, and we know the toolkit has

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<v Speaker 1>certainly it's a lot more full than it was about

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<v Speaker 1>twelve fourteen months ago. Having said that, at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>the past year, as you know, Professor Gaskin, that the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic really revealed once again all the inequities that are

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<v Speaker 1>out there in terms of how healthy the U. S

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<v Speaker 1>population is. Some really healthy, some not. Some have great

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<v Speaker 1>access to amazing healthcare, some do not. This is something

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<v Speaker 1>that you look at really closely. Have we learned enough

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<v Speaker 1>this past year that we're going to get smarter about

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<v Speaker 1>making sure that people are healthier going forward, uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>that people have more people have great access to good

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<v Speaker 1>health care. Well, I think what the pandemic has done

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<v Speaker 1>is it's revealed that there are some real problems with

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<v Speaker 1>health equity in this country, and those problems have persisted

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<v Speaker 1>UM for decades. There's a has has historical report by

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<v Speaker 1>the Heckler, the HECLA Report, which was UM published in

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<v Speaker 1>the nineties eighties, which which UM documented the UM disparities.

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<v Speaker 1>And then there's a report that was called Unequal Treatment

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<v Speaker 1>that was published in early two thousands that documented these disparities.

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<v Speaker 1>So from a research or standpoint, we've known about it

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<v Speaker 1>for a while, but I think from the general public standpoints,

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<v Speaker 1>they haven't realized how severe the problem is. And then

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<v Speaker 1>also the impact of this problem that it's just not

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<v Speaker 1>something in which affects your neighbor, but it really affects

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<v Speaker 1>our entire society. Well, how do we get to a

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<v Speaker 1>place where we we learn from the mistakes of our

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<v Speaker 1>past and actually fixed this on the other side of

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, Because it seems like this could be another

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<v Speaker 1>instance of us recognizing something, but then the policymakers not

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<v Speaker 1>having the political will to actually accomplish something. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's um, really quite a thorny problem. I mean, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we should all be sort of just moved by the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that there are people who are unhealthy through no

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<v Speaker 1>fault of their own often um, and morally that should

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<v Speaker 1>be something in which we should be willing to take on.

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<v Speaker 1>But not only is it just morally unacceptable, it's also

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<v Speaker 1>economically it's just just causing our society just a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of money in terms of taking care of people who

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<v Speaker 1>are are sicker um who um, And then those individuals

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<v Speaker 1>their ability to contribute to our society um is curtailed

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<v Speaker 1>and compromised. And then also the fact that people are

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<v Speaker 1>not living as long as they should and and so

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<v Speaker 1>all of these things impose significant costs on our society.

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<v Speaker 1>So even if if you're not willing to address these

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<v Speaker 1>problems because it's morally the right thing to do, we

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<v Speaker 1>should want to address these problems because it's really sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a real track on our economy. Exactly. Hey, we

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<v Speaker 1>just got about a minute or fifty seconds left here,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you though unwind what's become such a business

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<v Speaker 1>machine that is our health care program and our health

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<v Speaker 1>health care industry, to be fair, because there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of money that's to be made when people are sick

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<v Speaker 1>versus maybe keeping people from being sick. So how do

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<v Speaker 1>we unwind that? And just kind of I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>we have to be willing to say yes and no

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time. Um, we've spend a lot on healthcare,

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<v Speaker 1>but we just spend it on the wrong things. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we we really want to spend a lot on tertiary care,

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<v Speaker 1>but not a lot on primary and preventive care. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>there are providers that are providing these services, but if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at what we pay them relative to what

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<v Speaker 1>we pay specialists. And then an addition, we've spent a

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<v Speaker 1>lot on healthcare, but not a lot on public health

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<v Speaker 1>and this crisis. If we were much better prepared public

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<v Speaker 1>health wise, we could have maybe a burden UM hundreds

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<v Speaker 1>of thousands of deaths if we just were to have

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<v Speaker 1>had the systems in place to monitor, track and then

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<v Speaker 1>um and then isolate. This spiral. Sounds like we can

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<v Speaker 1>just start working on it for the next one, because

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<v Speaker 1>most people say that what are concerned about is we

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<v Speaker 1>won't even have those things in place for the next

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<v Speaker 1>one exactly, and we'll go through something very similar. Professor

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<v Speaker 1>Daryl Gaskin, thank you so much, Professor of Health Policy

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<v Speaker 1>and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,

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<v Speaker 1>with with us of course on the phone from Maryland,

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<v Speaker 1>the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by

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<v Speaker 1>Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder, Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies. But

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<v Speaker 1>you do wonder do we learn anything? It is we

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<v Speaker 1>have short memories, We really do. You're listening to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. We want to get to the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Big Take. It's an exclusive story that you definitely

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<v Speaker 1>need to know about this one from our Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week team about the world's best hope to end the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Tip it comes down to needing more doses. It certainly does.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Weber is editor of Bloomberg business Week. Stephanie Baker

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<v Speaker 1>is Financial Investigations Senior writer at Bloomberg News. Joel is

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<v Speaker 1>in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios with us. Stephanie is

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from London, Joel Kovacs. Maybe, which is

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a term that not everyone's familiar with, um, But

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<v Speaker 1>it is a global organization that is in charge of

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<v Speaker 1>basically getting vaccines to the place that places that would

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<v Speaker 1>need them. And that's not always rich countries. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>it's usually every other country that doesn't maybe have the

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<v Speaker 1>resources of the United States of the America's well, it's arguably,

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<v Speaker 1>as a Stephanie and our colleagues right, the most complex

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<v Speaker 1>international peacetime operation ever attempted. How is it doing as

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<v Speaker 1>of now with securing enough doses to distribute to the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Not well, Um, it's been short on money and doses.

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<v Speaker 1>And and that's um where we can bring bring Stephanie

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<v Speaker 1>in because this is not the they've been saying. This

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<v Speaker 1>actually for for going on a year now that they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to need doses and money to to actually get

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<v Speaker 1>people vaccinated outside of the developed world, and and that

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<v Speaker 1>messages maybe finally breaking through and and and to what

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<v Speaker 1>can we attribute that, Stephanie, Well, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that now that developed economies like the US and Europe

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<v Speaker 1>um have advanced their vaccination programs, UM, and they are

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<v Speaker 1>looking at you know, the end, you know, or the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic coming to a close or you know, coming under control. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, looking around and realizing, you know, the world

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<v Speaker 1>is not going to return to normal unless we get

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<v Speaker 1>this pandemic under control in other parts of the world

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<v Speaker 1>because um, you know, we're not gonna be able to travel.

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<v Speaker 1>And there's this risk of variant UM being created in

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<v Speaker 1>countries where the virus is circulating. The more infections you have,

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<v Speaker 1>the more likely you're going to have these variants. And

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<v Speaker 1>it's concerned that, um, you know, they vaccines may not

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<v Speaker 1>work as well against all these variants. And if that happens,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that could you know, those variants could boomerang

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<v Speaker 1>back and we could be back to square one. In

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<v Speaker 1>places like the US and the UK that even have

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<v Speaker 1>high vaccination rates, so you know, COVACS has really been

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<v Speaker 1>set up to try to at least provide a baseline

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<v Speaker 1>of coverage for poor countries that can't afford to buy

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<v Speaker 1>vaccines on their own, to provide protection and immunizations to

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare workers and the most vulnerable um But obviously it's

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<v Speaker 1>been underfunded, and I think the main reason why it

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<v Speaker 1>didn't have enough money early on in the pandemic to

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<v Speaker 1>be competing with rich countries that were placing big orders

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<v Speaker 1>with the promising Vaccine Developers Deputy where they were behind

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<v Speaker 1>the queue. We were we were talking about your story

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<v Speaker 1>earlier with Darryl Gaskin over at Johns Hopkins. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>why wasn't there more planning and consideration upfront to making

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<v Speaker 1>sure enough vaccines were there for less developed countries, for

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<v Speaker 1>those emerging markets. We knew this was going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a problem, right, And you know the people who set

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<v Speaker 1>up COVAC, Steth Berkeley, the head of this nonprofit called Gabby,

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<v Speaker 1>and Richard Hatchett, who won a research and development outfit

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<v Speaker 1>called Steppy. They realized that this was coming down the pike,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they set out to raise money to do

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<v Speaker 1>those back in May, and the money came in very

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<v Speaker 1>slowly because countries were continued with their own problems trying

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<v Speaker 1>to find vaccine for their own populations and really didn't

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<v Speaker 1>step up early enough. On top of that, we have

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<v Speaker 1>a global shortage of vaccine manufacturing capacity going into the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic um. You know, before COVID hit, we had about

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<v Speaker 1>five a capacity to make about five billion jos's vaccines globally,

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<v Speaker 1>including one and a half billion for flu. So we're

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<v Speaker 1>now trying to more than double that. So that is

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<v Speaker 1>part of the problem. And you know, we didn't know

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<v Speaker 1>which of these vaccines were going to work, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>trying to do tech transfers and get manufacturers up to

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<v Speaker 1>speed is incredibly difficult and complex, especially with new vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>could have been developed. How much of an issue in hindsight,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think we can say hindsight right now in

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<v Speaker 1>the developed world is hoarding of vaccines. So I interviewed

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<v Speaker 1>the Prime Minister of Jamaica back in January and he

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<v Speaker 1>accused Rich nations of hoarding vaccine doses and not making

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<v Speaker 1>them available to other parts of the world. Well, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and that that is basically what has happened. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>the US has ordered I think about three times what

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<v Speaker 1>they need to cover their population. Um. The UK has

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<v Speaker 1>done you know, similar orders. UM. So it's it's they

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<v Speaker 1>occupying places in the manufacturing q UM and that creates

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<v Speaker 1>problems for other countries trying to strike deal. So um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know obviously that is happening now. The hope is that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, once we get surplus, the surpluses start to

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<v Speaker 1>come through, those dose sharing arrangements will increase. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>in the US you have a gap of about seventy

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<v Speaker 1>million now between doses delivered and doses administered. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of vaccines in the US. Biden has just announced

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<v Speaker 1>that helps share twenty five million doses of vaccines globally,

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<v Speaker 1>most of that through kovacs, but in the Queen scheme

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<v Speaker 1>of things, that's like a drop of the ocean. They

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<v Speaker 1>need a lot more. Kovacs is a hundred million doses

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<v Speaker 1>short where they hoped to be by June, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is mostly because they were hoping and relying on the

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<v Speaker 1>world's largest vaccine manufacturer in India to make uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds of millions of doses. And now India, because of

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<v Speaker 1>its second Waves, has put export controls on the vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>produced there, and that is left the world with a

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<v Speaker 1>huge supply gas. I think that Biden news is actually

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<v Speaker 1>significant because it underscores sort of the whole point of

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<v Speaker 1>Stephanie's story, which is Kovac has been under resourced, underfunded

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<v Speaker 1>from day one, and then you know, a meager gesture

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<v Speaker 1>of you know, better than zero, which was what was

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<v Speaker 1>there before, but it's still you know, just millions and

0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:19.640
<v Speaker 1>millions off of what Kovax is going to need. Yeah,

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.200
<v Speaker 1>and I guess I just assumed, well, you know, it's interesting.

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>You do wonder about the pharmaceuticals, the major pharmaceuticals role

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 1>in all of this. And again I know that there

0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.839
<v Speaker 1>were production uh, you know, limitations, but you know, I

0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:34.120
<v Speaker 1>guess I would have expected Stephanie that the big farmer

0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.559
<v Speaker 1>companies would have been maybe a little bit more helpful.

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 1>You know. The thing that has always struck me is

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>um that the tow leading developers Fire and Maderna deals

0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 1>with Kovacs very late. Um deal was very small, forty

0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:54.079
<v Speaker 1>million in January. Maderian has only came in May um

0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.599
<v Speaker 1>and most of those doses will only be delivered to

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:58.959
<v Speaker 1>Kovacs towards the end of this year and next year.

0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 1>And I can't leave neither of them have just given

0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.560
<v Speaker 1>doses pro bono to this effort, right, given how much

0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.760
<v Speaker 1>they are making off of these vaccines, and I'm surprised

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:11.200
<v Speaker 1>people haven't called and out for that. Well as someone

0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.319
<v Speaker 1>in your story. Uh, there's a quote, it's a global pandemic.

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>We need a global solution. That's the only way we

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.000
<v Speaker 1>get beyond it. Great stuff, Stephanie Baker, it's our Bloomberg

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 1>Big Take. It's a Business Week story. She's Financial Investigation

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:25.240
<v Speaker 1>senior writer on the phone from London. Jill Weber, editor

0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:28.200
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week in her Interactive Broker studio. You're

0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:32.239
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, this

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.360
<v Speaker 1>is a little depressing. It is our second most read

0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 1>story on the Bloomberg in the past eight hours. Millennials

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 1>at the age of forty, Tim, they are falling behind

0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.560
<v Speaker 1>their parents in every way. Is this your group? This

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>is not only is this my group? But I felt

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:51.800
<v Speaker 1>personally attacked when I saw the term geriatric millennial in

0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>this piece. It's been telling my story because that is me.

0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.480
<v Speaker 1>I am a geriatric millennials that is like a mean term.

0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>It's an official term, all right, But listen, this talks

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 1>about though, um, how millennials at the age or the

0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 1>older the geriatric millennials really running out of time to

0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.440
<v Speaker 1>build up wealth. Let's get to it with Katarina Survive

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.040
<v Speaker 1>as she's Bloomberg News Federal Reserve and Economics reporter on

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:14.800
<v Speaker 1>the phone in Dallas. As I said, one of the

0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 1>most read stories on the Bloomberg. Katarina, tell us what

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 1>you guys uh sought out to do in this story

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 1>and what you found out? Hi? Yeah, So, um, you know,

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.600
<v Speaker 1>we thought it was really interesting that this this the

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>older UM millennials are turning forty this year. Of course,

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 1>these are folks born in UM ninety one, and this

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 1>generation has been you know, talked about a lot in

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 1>the past ten years or so. Um. You know, there's

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 1>been a lot of kind of thankst about whether all

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.200
<v Speaker 1>millennials are still living with their parents and so forth.

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.360
<v Speaker 1>So we thought it would be kind of interesting to

0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 1>take a look, and um, we looked at a variety

0:15:56.640 --> 0:16:00.520
<v Speaker 1>of kind of wealth statistics and and just number around

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 1>this and and really found that this generation is very

0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:08.400
<v Speaker 1>far behind UM where their parents and grandparents were in

0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 1>terms of things like home ownership, UM, debt levels, UM,

0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:17.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of these key elements to wealth. Why is that specifically?

0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>Is it because of when we graduated from college into

0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.760
<v Speaker 1>the a few years later, the great recessions because college

0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.640
<v Speaker 1>was so expensive for us? Is it because wages haven't

0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:29.680
<v Speaker 1>grown as much as they were growing when our parents

0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.240
<v Speaker 1>were our age? Is it all of the above? Yeah,

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean it really is all of the above. It's

0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:37.880
<v Speaker 1>a lot of different factors coming into play. And yeah,

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.360
<v Speaker 1>like what you're saying, I mean, college was a good

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 1>bit more expensive for millennials. Um, They therefore incurred a

0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 1>lot more student debt, and that debt has really stayed

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 1>with them and prevented them in many cases from doing

0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:55.920
<v Speaker 1>things like buying a home, which is such a key

0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:59.280
<v Speaker 1>way to build wealth. And then, like you're saying, um,

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:06.399
<v Speaker 1>wages really haven't risen that much during millennials adult years, UM,

0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 1>not nearly as much as for their parents. And then conversely,

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:13.160
<v Speaker 1>things like home prices have really shot up. So it's

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>really created kind of this um, much more uneven environment

0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.679
<v Speaker 1>for millennials. Yeah, it's pretty staggering some of the stats

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:22.400
<v Speaker 1>that you have come out there, but you also talk

0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:24.280
<v Speaker 1>about I love there's like a cover page to all

0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.400
<v Speaker 1>of this. A year of college for millennials was I guess,

0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.080
<v Speaker 1>on average twenty four thousand, six hundred. For boomers it

0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:33.600
<v Speaker 1>was less than half that UM cost of a home

0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:38.440
<v Speaker 1>three thousand versus two hundred sixteen thousand for boomers UM

0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.879
<v Speaker 1>middle aged net worth ninety one thousand for millennials hundred

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:46.959
<v Speaker 1>thirteen thousand for boomers. It doesn't feel like in some instances, though, Katerina,

0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:49.640
<v Speaker 1>that much. But we have to remember that wealth creation,

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>even a few thousand dollars over time, adds up to

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:57.959
<v Speaker 1>a lot. Yeah, exactly. It's kind of like this multiplier effect, right, UM,

0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:00.439
<v Speaker 1>and especially with the way with what home prices have

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.600
<v Speaker 1>done in the past few decades. UM, the earlier or

0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:05.600
<v Speaker 1>that the sooner you're able to get in, the better

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.840
<v Speaker 1>because it's just going to multiply and multiply. UM. Also,

0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 1>things like you know, stock ownership savings rates in general,

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:15.440
<v Speaker 1>these things are it's all lower. So when you add

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.159
<v Speaker 1>it all up together, it creates UM you know, a

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.840
<v Speaker 1>bit more of a dismal picture. So based on on

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:25.040
<v Speaker 1>your reporting who you spoke to UM and you know

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 1>you've done so much reporting on this, Katerina, what is

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.320
<v Speaker 1>what is the message for policymakers here? What is the

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:37.160
<v Speaker 1>way to prevent this generation my generation from um from

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.040
<v Speaker 1>a faith that's not so good? Yeah, I think it's

0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:42.480
<v Speaker 1>going to be really interesting. I think you know that

0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:45.679
<v Speaker 1>this is why we're seeing some politicians talk about like

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:49.720
<v Speaker 1>student loan forgiveness, UM, things like that, because I think

0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're seeing the effect that this is having

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.119
<v Speaker 1>on kind of holding back some folks in in the

0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:58.679
<v Speaker 1>millennial generation. Um. So it's it's things like that, you know,

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 1>perhaps thinking about solutions for this death burden. Um, it's

0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:08.080
<v Speaker 1>also thinking about retirement and what's going on with social security.

0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:11.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you have fewer savings, um, you know

0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:14.160
<v Speaker 1>when you get into retirement age, I mean you're probably

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:16.720
<v Speaker 1>going to be more dependent on things like social security.

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.760
<v Speaker 1>So what is that going to look like when millennials

0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:21.919
<v Speaker 1>start to retire? Well, and Karine, if we break it

0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.880
<v Speaker 1>down even you know, go deeper into this in terms

0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:28.600
<v Speaker 1>of racial variances, right, it gets even tougher if you're

0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:32.920
<v Speaker 1>what a black millennial or a brown millennial. Yeah. Absolutely,

0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 1>And the millennial cohort is much more diverse than the

0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 1>ones that came before, Right, the country, population growth is happening. Um.

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.639
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's more population growth among minority groups in

0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.000
<v Speaker 1>this country. So every generation, every new generation is going

0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:51.560
<v Speaker 1>to be more and more diverse. And we know that

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:55.720
<v Speaker 1>black and brown people, especially in the US have much

0:19:55.800 --> 0:19:59.560
<v Speaker 1>less wealth than their white counterparts. So you know, it's

0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:03.480
<v Speaker 1>it's really has implications for the US economy and growth

0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.199
<v Speaker 1>going forward. You go ahead here. You know, you know

0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:08.280
<v Speaker 1>what I think was interesting what you said about policy implications,

0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:10.159
<v Speaker 1>because this is going to be a voting block, right,

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 1>a pretty pig size voting block, and you do wonder

0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 1>what that might mean, what kind of policies that they

0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 1>would to ultimately vote in favor of. Ye Katerina just

0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:19.080
<v Speaker 1>want to end in our last minute. But you talking

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:24.239
<v Speaker 1>about the wider economic consequences or implications of generation like

0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:27.440
<v Speaker 1>this not having the wealth that previous generations had. I

0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:31.200
<v Speaker 1>mean that has serious implications for growth. Yeah, exactly. And

0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>and we obviously, you know, we want to grow the

0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:39.080
<v Speaker 1>economy so um and and certainly to deal with our debt,

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, our national debt burden, which has of course

0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:44.280
<v Speaker 1>only grown in the past year. You know, we need that,

0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.119
<v Speaker 1>we need an engine of growth, and if you have

0:20:47.280 --> 0:20:51.200
<v Speaker 1>people with fewer means to spend and and and less

0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:54.520
<v Speaker 1>ability to kind of um to do things like that

0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:58.119
<v Speaker 1>and buy homes for example. Um, it just really puts

0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:01.119
<v Speaker 1>the economy in a more precarious date. Yeah, that is

0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:03.399
<v Speaker 1>really something important to think about, you know, because you

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:05.439
<v Speaker 1>do think as people retire, maybe they don't spend as much,

0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:06.720
<v Speaker 1>but a lot of them do have a fair amount

0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:09.000
<v Speaker 1>of money to spend. But if this group does not,

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:12.080
<v Speaker 1>what does that mean in terms of economics? Not good?

0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:13.520
<v Speaker 1>All of sten we talked about the aging of the

0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 1>of the economies, whether it's Japan, whether it's here China

0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:19.439
<v Speaker 1>seeing it, they just um boosted how many kids you

0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:22.000
<v Speaker 1>can have in terms of a family. So people are

0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:24.159
<v Speaker 1>looking at this seriously. Yeah they are. Katerinus rav A,

0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve and Economics Report, Bloomberg News. Thank you for

0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:30.160
<v Speaker 1>joining us. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:34.680
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:36.879
<v Speaker 1>I want to get right to it because Ross Gerber

0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:39.480
<v Speaker 1>is with us because we love to talk Tesla with him.

0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:42.159
<v Speaker 1>Keep in mind that after Tesla had an off the

0:21:42.240 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 1>chart run in very different year. This year, it's fallen

0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:49.119
<v Speaker 1>more than from its peak in late January obviously had

0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:52.000
<v Speaker 1>an analysts coming out saying Tesla's globally v market ish

0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>shares falling, and then there's Ellen getting into restaurants. So

0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:59.840
<v Speaker 1>Ross Gerber, presidency of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Managements,

0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:02.320
<v Speaker 1>on a phone back with us from Santa Monica, California.

0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:04.679
<v Speaker 1>He is a fan of Tesla Cars, owns cars and

0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:07.399
<v Speaker 1>the company's stock. So good to have you here. How

0:22:07.440 --> 0:22:10.960
<v Speaker 1>are you, I'm good, I'm good. How are you doing well?

0:22:11.000 --> 0:22:14.760
<v Speaker 1>Doing well? Be looking forward to talking to you? Um lower,

0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>what's going on? Are you running for the exits when

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:21.919
<v Speaker 1>it comes to Tesla? No, no, definitely not. In fact,

0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:25.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, at these prices, I'm a buyer anytime the

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:28.119
<v Speaker 1>stocks below six hundred, I typically will add it to portfolios,

0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:31.439
<v Speaker 1>especially once they don't have much exposure to Tesla like

0:22:31.480 --> 0:22:35.239
<v Speaker 1>newer accounts. But but I think you know, Tesla ran

0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:39.120
<v Speaker 1>up obviously to a very very high valuation, so part

0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:43.080
<v Speaker 1>of this is just coming back to some reasonable valuation

0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:46.639
<v Speaker 1>in here. So you know, by any means, Tesla should

0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:50.040
<v Speaker 1>probably change trade between five hundred and a thousand over

0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 1>the short term, you know, period of time. So you know,

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:54.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't look at that as a concern to me

0:22:54.880 --> 0:22:56.840
<v Speaker 1>because we really just follow what the company is doing

0:22:57.520 --> 0:22:59.760
<v Speaker 1>and what the company is trying to execute, and if

0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:02.159
<v Speaker 1>they achieve their goals, the stock will follow. Well. But

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:04.320
<v Speaker 1>what about market share going down? I think it was

0:23:04.359 --> 0:23:06.640
<v Speaker 1>Credit Sweets that has a report that is market share

0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:10.800
<v Speaker 1>fe April. We know China has been pushing back on them.

0:23:11.240 --> 0:23:14.879
<v Speaker 1>Then you've got you know, restaurants like get come on

0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:18.639
<v Speaker 1>ross like don't it when your market shre you can

0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:21.399
<v Speaker 1>only go down. So that that's a little bit disingenuous,

0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:24.160
<v Speaker 1>especially coming from Credit Swiss that can't even manage their book.

0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:29.160
<v Speaker 1>But but I think, um, there there's gonna be other cars,

0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:33.159
<v Speaker 1>and the e V business is going to expand exponentially

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:36.199
<v Speaker 1>as more and more people get into this business. So

0:23:36.320 --> 0:23:38.240
<v Speaker 1>we expect our market share to go down, but the

0:23:38.280 --> 0:23:41.600
<v Speaker 1>actual share of cars that are sold e vs to

0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:44.840
<v Speaker 1>go up substantially from where they are today, which is

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:48.159
<v Speaker 1>just a few percent of all cars sold. So so

0:23:48.200 --> 0:23:50.760
<v Speaker 1>we really see for all EV makers, whether it be

0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:54.200
<v Speaker 1>Ford or Tesla, a huge opportunity to go e V.

0:23:54.400 --> 0:23:57.400
<v Speaker 1>And so we don't describe any value to that. Now,

0:23:57.400 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 1>the restaurant thing, I think has to do with the superchargers.

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:02.240
<v Speaker 1>So if you go to a Tesla supercharger, especially some

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:04.560
<v Speaker 1>of the new big ones, you know, people hang out

0:24:04.560 --> 0:24:06.959
<v Speaker 1>for thirty minutes and what most of them, you know,

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:09.280
<v Speaker 1>we go into the mall where it is and we

0:24:09.400 --> 0:24:12.360
<v Speaker 1>get food. You know, that's pretty much what you do. Uh,

0:24:12.400 --> 0:24:14.719
<v Speaker 1>there's a Nike store and the one up in San Louis, Spispo.

0:24:15.280 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 1>That's my hometown. Ross. Oh, it's a great supercharger. Great

0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:21.199
<v Speaker 1>love Pismo by the way, And and you know, I'm

0:24:21.280 --> 0:24:23.120
<v Speaker 1>up there and I go shop at Nike, I get

0:24:23.160 --> 0:24:25.040
<v Speaker 1>my kids shoes, and I come back in the charge.

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:27.879
<v Speaker 1>So so putting restaurants in makes a lot of sense

0:24:28.560 --> 0:24:30.879
<v Speaker 1>because then they can control the experience around the charger,

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:34.199
<v Speaker 1>and and the Tesla community loves hanging out. Um, so

0:24:34.359 --> 0:24:36.359
<v Speaker 1>I I see that as a net positive. He's not

0:24:36.359 --> 0:24:38.520
<v Speaker 1>going to be a restaurant tour, you know what I mean. Right, Well,

0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:40.840
<v Speaker 1>let's go from California to China and the opportunity in China,

0:24:40.880 --> 0:24:43.600
<v Speaker 1>because the Information has a report out today the tech

0:24:43.680 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 1>news site saying that there are concerns about the Chinese

0:24:47.880 --> 0:24:50.560
<v Speaker 1>orders dropping by almost half in May. What do you

0:24:50.600 --> 0:24:53.280
<v Speaker 1>make of That's so it's not the information we have.

0:24:53.840 --> 0:24:56.879
<v Speaker 1>Our information shows China demand is off the charts for

0:24:57.080 --> 0:25:00.320
<v Speaker 1>VS and Tesla. The Chinese love Tesla. I can show

0:25:00.359 --> 0:25:04.600
<v Speaker 1>you photos of like full you know, Tesla stores, show rooms,

0:25:04.680 --> 0:25:09.679
<v Speaker 1>you know. So how Tesla delivers cars varies by quarter.

0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:13.120
<v Speaker 1>And one of the issues that I think we need

0:25:13.160 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 1>to get to the bottom with with Tesla, which I

0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:19.040
<v Speaker 1>think has less to do with demand, is how much

0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:23.800
<v Speaker 1>are these part shortages affecting supply? Okay, because the models

0:25:23.920 --> 0:25:26.280
<v Speaker 1>plaid is still not out. Okay, it was supposed to

0:25:26.280 --> 0:25:28.640
<v Speaker 1>be launched today, Actually now it's postponed in another week.

0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:30.840
<v Speaker 1>I think it has to do with parts. We had

0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:34.520
<v Speaker 1>this issue with you know, the seats and you know,

0:25:34.600 --> 0:25:37.840
<v Speaker 1>and the passenger seat, you know, not having lumbar support button.

0:25:38.200 --> 0:25:40.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, these are parts issues, and all the car

0:25:40.800 --> 0:25:43.800
<v Speaker 1>companies are struggling now not only to meet demand, but

0:25:43.920 --> 0:25:47.119
<v Speaker 1>to like get all these parts. And we're seeing slowdowns

0:25:47.119 --> 0:25:49.640
<v Speaker 1>in the factories and all the major car companies. So

0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:51.600
<v Speaker 1>this is the part I'm trying to get to the

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:54.520
<v Speaker 1>bottom of, not really worried about demand at all, is

0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:58.440
<v Speaker 1>are we having issues with supply. Have you sold any

0:25:58.480 --> 0:26:02.399
<v Speaker 1>shares in the current quarter? UM. I always buy and

0:26:02.400 --> 0:26:05.200
<v Speaker 1>sell shares depending on the clients. So for example, yes,

0:26:05.240 --> 0:26:07.440
<v Speaker 1>I've sold shares for clients who have been long term

0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:10.720
<v Speaker 1>investors who have huge overweight positions in and then I've

0:26:10.760 --> 0:26:13.239
<v Speaker 1>bought shares for clients that are new that don't have

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:15.399
<v Speaker 1>big positions in Tesla. So we try to manage to

0:26:15.440 --> 0:26:19.600
<v Speaker 1>a portfolio allocation. Our allocation to Tesla has gone down

0:26:19.680 --> 0:26:22.960
<v Speaker 1>over the last I would say six months because it

0:26:23.040 --> 0:26:27.640
<v Speaker 1>became extremely overvalued in our portfolios, and we manage risk

0:26:27.720 --> 0:26:31.320
<v Speaker 1>and balance our our risk rewards with our opportunities. So

0:26:31.400 --> 0:26:33.960
<v Speaker 1>Tesla has been a wonderful reward for us, and and

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:36.280
<v Speaker 1>we did take you know, a considerable amount of profit

0:26:36.320 --> 0:26:38.720
<v Speaker 1>with that, and but it is still our largest stock

0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:42.639
<v Speaker 1>position of individual stocks that we own UM, closely followed

0:26:42.640 --> 0:26:45.600
<v Speaker 1>by MGM and Disney. What's the typical concentration that you

0:26:45.600 --> 0:26:47.159
<v Speaker 1>have in a portfolio that's been with you for a

0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 1>while for Tesla right now, it's it's managed at around

0:26:51.240 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 1>a six percent allocation, so substantial, but not you know everything, No,

0:26:56.520 --> 0:26:59.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, listen, I we manage money for lots of

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:03.960
<v Speaker 1>different people here, and we manage risk very you know, carefully.

0:27:04.080 --> 0:27:07.480
<v Speaker 1>My philosophy investment is trying not to lose people any money.

0:27:07.800 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 1>It's not maximum return. I've been doing this. This is

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:13.600
<v Speaker 1>actually my anniversary, my twenty eight year now coming in Gradua.

0:27:14.040 --> 0:27:16.400
<v Speaker 1>And you don't make it through all these bear markets.

0:27:16.840 --> 0:27:19.000
<v Speaker 1>If all you're worried about his maximum return and I

0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:20.800
<v Speaker 1>missed a MC or something, you know what I mean.

0:27:21.160 --> 0:27:23.679
<v Speaker 1>And so so we manage race very closely, and I

0:27:23.880 --> 0:27:26.919
<v Speaker 1>consider six percent allocations pretty heavy. Well, your clients are

0:27:26.920 --> 0:27:29.600
<v Speaker 1>saying thank you, Ross for you know, trying to minimize

0:27:29.600 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 1>any kind of losses. That's what we hope for. Hey, Ross,

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 1>always good to check in with you. Ross Garber he

0:27:34.680 --> 0:27:37.560
<v Speaker 1>is President, chief executive officer at Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and

0:27:37.640 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Investment Management. On the phone from Santa Monica owns Tesla's

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:43.280
<v Speaker 1>owns the shares as well as you just heard Tesla

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:45.600
<v Speaker 1>shares their down about twenty eight bucks in today's trade.

0:27:45.680 --> 0:27:52.840
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. I'm rom the journal. Yeah, but you

0:27:52.920 --> 0:27:57.639
<v Speaker 1>let me drive? No, no, no no, no, all right, please,

0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:08.320
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the right mad. I want to drive the question.

0:28:15.800 --> 0:28:19.320
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, We'll

0:28:19.359 --> 0:28:22.760
<v Speaker 1>drying us to Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. All Right, just

0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:26.280
<v Speaker 1>about ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session,

0:28:26.600 --> 0:28:29.240
<v Speaker 1>and we've been bouncing around, but we're definitely off our

0:28:29.240 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 1>loads of the session, but also offer our best level

0:28:31.600 --> 0:28:33.960
<v Speaker 1>still down about one percent on the NASA because you

0:28:33.960 --> 0:28:36.280
<v Speaker 1>just heard Charlie recapping the numbers. Let's get to with

0:28:36.320 --> 0:28:39.520
<v Speaker 1>Brian Jacobson. He's a multi assets strategist at Wells Fargo

0:28:39.560 --> 0:28:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Asset Management, joining us on the drive to the clothes

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 1>on this Thursday, six billion dollars in assets under management.

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>On the phone from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Brian, it is an

0:28:49.760 --> 0:28:53.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting day, to say the least. We focus on the

0:28:53.760 --> 0:28:57.000
<v Speaker 1>meme stocks, we've got economic news, we're getting ready for

0:28:57.040 --> 0:29:00.160
<v Speaker 1>the monthly jobs report. What is it that you have

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:02.239
<v Speaker 1>you and your team focusing on right now when it

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:06.360
<v Speaker 1>comes to market fundamentals. Yeah, it seems like you've got

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:08.640
<v Speaker 1>to focus on a number of things all at once. Uh.

0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:11.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, last night and when I checked Bloomberg, looked

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:14.720
<v Speaker 1>like the sp futures were in the green. They were positive.

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:17.360
<v Speaker 1>And then it seems like after it was announced at

0:29:17.360 --> 0:29:19.640
<v Speaker 1>the Central Bank in Russia was going to get out

0:29:19.640 --> 0:29:23.520
<v Speaker 1>of US dollar denominated assets. Things went self from there.

0:29:23.800 --> 0:29:26.200
<v Speaker 1>I think that, you know, maybe the market is beginning

0:29:26.240 --> 0:29:28.800
<v Speaker 1>to get a little worried about some of those geopolitical issues,

0:29:28.840 --> 0:29:31.920
<v Speaker 1>whether it's you know, human rights issues with China, what

0:29:32.040 --> 0:29:34.800
<v Speaker 1>that's going to do with the United States relationships, or

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 1>cyber attacks allegedly coming from Russia. Uh. And then also

0:29:39.560 --> 0:29:43.960
<v Speaker 1>you've got the said, uh perhaps talking about talking about tapering.

0:29:44.320 --> 0:29:46.480
<v Speaker 1>Plenty of things to be worrying about. But we're actually

0:29:46.480 --> 0:29:50.800
<v Speaker 1>still optimistic. Um, We're still maintaining our pro cyclical stance

0:29:50.840 --> 0:29:54.000
<v Speaker 1>with our portfolios, you know, watching the data very closely.

0:29:54.400 --> 0:29:58.800
<v Speaker 1>We do think that this growth and inflation dynamic will

0:29:59.360 --> 0:30:04.160
<v Speaker 1>resolve itself to be where it is transitory inflation. Uh,

0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:07.760
<v Speaker 1>and that we could still seek not just decent growth

0:30:07.840 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 1>this year, but actually a slightly higher trend rate of

0:30:11.320 --> 0:30:15.280
<v Speaker 1>growth coming out of the COVID CIT Wow. So you

0:30:15.360 --> 0:30:17.680
<v Speaker 1>do you do agree with the Federal Reserve officials who

0:30:17.800 --> 0:30:20.400
<v Speaker 1>continue to reiterate that they believe this inflation that we're

0:30:20.400 --> 0:30:24.360
<v Speaker 1>seeing now is transitory. Well, we do, and you know

0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:27.040
<v Speaker 1>the reason for that is that when we look at

0:30:27.040 --> 0:30:30.160
<v Speaker 1>a variety of different what we've considered to be leading

0:30:30.160 --> 0:30:33.280
<v Speaker 1>indicators of inflation a lot of it. To be perfectly honest,

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:36.360
<v Speaker 1>I think hinges on two things. Um. One is bank

0:30:36.480 --> 0:30:40.800
<v Speaker 1>lending coming out of the COVID crisis. How quickly will

0:30:40.840 --> 0:30:43.800
<v Speaker 1>that accelerate? Because inflation people think that it's, you know,

0:30:43.840 --> 0:30:46.680
<v Speaker 1>always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. That was a famous

0:30:46.760 --> 0:30:50.520
<v Speaker 1>quote from Milton Freeman. But it's more about credit availability

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:54.640
<v Speaker 1>and lending um. And so far, you know, banks haven't

0:30:54.800 --> 0:30:58.000
<v Speaker 1>really held a lot of additional assets on their balance

0:30:58.080 --> 0:31:01.320
<v Speaker 1>sheets unless their treasuries. Uh. And so we have to

0:31:01.360 --> 0:31:04.320
<v Speaker 1>see what happens with bank credit coming out of the

0:31:04.320 --> 0:31:08.000
<v Speaker 1>COVID crisis. And then productivity growth. If you actually have

0:31:08.680 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 1>strong productivity growth, you can support faster wage growth and

0:31:13.520 --> 0:31:17.120
<v Speaker 1>yet have declining prices. And so we think that a

0:31:17.120 --> 0:31:21.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of the UH impulse to the inflation numbers is

0:31:21.840 --> 0:31:26.160
<v Speaker 1>leading Ultimately, So you said that you think the growth

0:31:26.160 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 1>and inflation dynamic, UM, well eventually resolve itself to where

0:31:31.560 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 1>you said it is transitory and settle with a higher

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:38.760
<v Speaker 1>trend growth rate. What kind of growth rate? Yeah, you know,

0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:41.240
<v Speaker 1>coming into the COVID crisis, seems like people were just

0:31:41.320 --> 0:31:43.960
<v Speaker 1>content with, oh, chugging along it to two and a

0:31:44.040 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 1>half percent, but if you actually get that faster productivity growth,

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:51.320
<v Speaker 1>that could support something closer to three percent. Now that

0:31:51.400 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 1>might not sound like a lot if you go from

0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:54.880
<v Speaker 1>two and a half to three percent, but you know,

0:31:55.200 --> 0:31:58.680
<v Speaker 1>multi trillion dollar economy, that does add up. And so

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.760
<v Speaker 1>we think that that's really the thing that we have

0:32:01.880 --> 0:32:04.320
<v Speaker 1>to see more evidence of what it seems like. We

0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:07.480
<v Speaker 1>have early signs that businesses are making the investment in

0:32:07.600 --> 0:32:12.720
<v Speaker 1>capital expenditures, so property, planting, equipment, COVID forced the a

0:32:12.760 --> 0:32:16.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of technology adoption on individuals and businesses that they

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:18.760
<v Speaker 1>otherwise wouldn't have done or maybe would have done, but

0:32:18.840 --> 0:32:21.720
<v Speaker 1>over a longer time frame, and that could then actually

0:32:21.760 --> 0:32:26.200
<v Speaker 1>result in that faster productivity growth. How much of the

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:29.080
<v Speaker 1>productivity growth or economic growth that you see happening this

0:32:29.160 --> 0:32:31.000
<v Speaker 1>year and even next year, as you mentioned, is priced

0:32:31.000 --> 0:32:33.160
<v Speaker 1>into markets right now? And what opportunity is there for

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:35.560
<v Speaker 1>more gains in the markets because the markets forward looking,

0:32:35.600 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 1>So I do and I ask this question all the time.

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:41.680
<v Speaker 1>What is priced in and what isn't. Yeah, that's that's

0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:44.640
<v Speaker 1>the tricky thing. Going into this year. We thought that

0:32:45.040 --> 0:32:50.800
<v Speaker 1>we'd probably get around the span encounter some turbulence. That's

0:32:50.880 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 1>like pretty much where we are. That's pretty much where

0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:56.680
<v Speaker 1>we are, yeah, exactly, and so, uh, we've experienced a

0:32:56.760 --> 0:32:59.880
<v Speaker 1>little bit of turbulence. I don't think anything to really

0:33:00.320 --> 0:33:04.160
<v Speaker 1>right home about, but you know it's the uh, summer

0:33:04.320 --> 0:33:06.600
<v Speaker 1>isn't even here yet, so let's let's see what happens

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:09.520
<v Speaker 1>um and then you know, making a move higher more

0:33:09.560 --> 0:33:12.480
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand twenty two towards around forty four on

0:33:12.560 --> 0:33:14.920
<v Speaker 1>the S and P five. So you know, maybe the

0:33:14.920 --> 0:33:18.040
<v Speaker 1>market did get this priced in properly as far as

0:33:18.080 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 1>the growth outlook. But where we think that there could

0:33:20.640 --> 0:33:24.160
<v Speaker 1>be more of a disconnect is in terms of how

0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:28.040
<v Speaker 1>much better longer term growth could be going forward, and

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:33.880
<v Speaker 1>then also the value growth rotation how long that could last. Um.

0:33:34.120 --> 0:33:35.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, we think that maybe a lot of the

0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:39.640
<v Speaker 1>large versus small, so the rotation back into small, maybe

0:33:39.760 --> 0:33:41.840
<v Speaker 1>that has kind of played itself out. But we think

0:33:41.880 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 1>that the given the cyclical exposure within the value side

0:33:46.440 --> 0:33:48.680
<v Speaker 1>of the spectrum, that's where we think that could actually

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:52.640
<v Speaker 1>have some legs. Um corporate taxes, we did see markets

0:33:52.680 --> 0:33:54.320
<v Speaker 1>seem to get a little bit of a leg up

0:33:54.680 --> 0:33:57.520
<v Speaker 1>or at least bounce off their loads. When the Washington

0:33:57.560 --> 0:34:00.240
<v Speaker 1>Post initially in Bloomberg matching this story as well. The

0:34:00.240 --> 0:34:03.240
<v Speaker 1>President seems to be offering a major change to tax

0:34:03.280 --> 0:34:07.160
<v Speaker 1>proposal and offer to get his infrastructure deal through with Republicans.

0:34:07.160 --> 0:34:10.360
<v Speaker 1>And now we're talking about a corporate tax rate maybe

0:34:10.480 --> 0:34:14.040
<v Speaker 1>starting with a floor of about fifteen percent. That's very

0:34:14.040 --> 0:34:17.840
<v Speaker 1>different from what he talked about earlier. How big of

0:34:17.880 --> 0:34:22.680
<v Speaker 1>a deal could that be? Potentially two companies corporate profits

0:34:22.719 --> 0:34:27.719
<v Speaker 1>that ultimately play out in the equity markets. Yeah, they

0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:29.799
<v Speaker 1>actually think that could be a very big deal. And

0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:31.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean to be honest, So we thought that his

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:35.000
<v Speaker 1>original proposal about bumping up the corporate tax rate was

0:34:35.160 --> 0:34:38.719
<v Speaker 1>almost just a starting point for negotiations. Uh, you kind

0:34:38.719 --> 0:34:42.080
<v Speaker 1>of saying, what are the contours around where he wants

0:34:42.120 --> 0:34:45.000
<v Speaker 1>to go? And then I think it's a testimony to

0:34:45.200 --> 0:34:47.560
<v Speaker 1>how he wants to get a deal done. Uh. And

0:34:47.680 --> 0:34:50.440
<v Speaker 1>he's not going to be very doctrinaire about what that

0:34:50.560 --> 0:34:53.279
<v Speaker 1>rate needs to be. Maybe it's going to actually be

0:34:53.719 --> 0:34:57.279
<v Speaker 1>a variety of taxes on high net worth individuals and

0:34:57.400 --> 0:35:00.400
<v Speaker 1>on corporation. But does it really matter to corporations? Does

0:35:00.440 --> 0:35:03.680
<v Speaker 1>it really like how much? Does you know? I mean

0:35:03.719 --> 0:35:06.319
<v Speaker 1>it matters, but we also know the effective are the

0:35:06.360 --> 0:35:08.200
<v Speaker 1>real tax right that they ultimately pay is often a

0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 1>lot less than what the mandated rate is. It is

0:35:12.640 --> 0:35:15.480
<v Speaker 1>exactly yeah, I mean that's why they have tax the ternates.

0:35:15.520 --> 0:35:17.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's all sorts of different ways. It's also

0:35:17.800 --> 0:35:19.600
<v Speaker 1>one of the reasons why it tends to hit smaller

0:35:19.640 --> 0:35:22.640
<v Speaker 1>camp more than large cap just because if you think

0:35:22.680 --> 0:35:26.040
<v Speaker 1>about number one, the domestic orientation is small caps relative

0:35:26.080 --> 0:35:28.120
<v Speaker 1>to large caps, but then also the resources that they

0:35:28.160 --> 0:35:31.120
<v Speaker 1>have as far as doing you know, transfer pricing arrangements

0:35:31.160 --> 0:35:34.640
<v Speaker 1>and setting up, you know, different vehicles in order to

0:35:34.719 --> 0:35:39.680
<v Speaker 1>engage in legal tax avoidance. Um, it might not matter

0:35:39.800 --> 0:35:42.520
<v Speaker 1>quite as much. Uh. And one of the things that

0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:44.880
<v Speaker 1>could happen if you increase the corporate tax rate is

0:35:44.920 --> 0:35:48.440
<v Speaker 1>that it could actually encourage businesses to take on more leverage.

0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:50.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that a lot of people are already worried

0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:54.359
<v Speaker 1>about how much leverage businesses have taken on with low

0:35:54.440 --> 0:35:56.600
<v Speaker 1>interest rates. And if you bump up the corporate tax

0:35:56.680 --> 0:35:58.720
<v Speaker 1>rate will one way that you can try to shield

0:35:58.719 --> 0:36:01.440
<v Speaker 1>that is through the intra tax shield on debt. And

0:36:01.520 --> 0:36:04.879
<v Speaker 1>so does that then just create some future vulnerability as

0:36:04.920 --> 0:36:08.680
<v Speaker 1>far as you know, increase financial leverage, Brian, just we

0:36:08.719 --> 0:36:11.279
<v Speaker 1>have we only have fifteen seconds lunch. We only have

0:36:11.320 --> 0:36:12.840
<v Speaker 1>fifteen seconds left. I want to know if any of

0:36:12.880 --> 0:36:14.800
<v Speaker 1>the volatility that we're seeing in the meme stocks AMC

0:36:14.920 --> 0:36:19.440
<v Speaker 1>down seventeen percent, Express down that, Beth and beyond, does

0:36:19.440 --> 0:36:22.319
<v Speaker 1>that have any risk of going further into markets? Just

0:36:22.360 --> 0:36:25.440
<v Speaker 1>about twenty seconds here. Yeah, we we don't think so,

0:36:25.480 --> 0:36:28.000
<v Speaker 1>we don't think that it represents any sort of systemic risk.

0:36:28.080 --> 0:36:29.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's a story that's been around for a while,

0:36:30.000 --> 0:36:34.040
<v Speaker 1>it's very interesting, but to us, it doesn't seem like

0:36:34.040 --> 0:36:36.560
<v Speaker 1>it's spilling over into other parts of the markets. It

0:36:36.600 --> 0:36:40.880
<v Speaker 1>seems like it is concentrated within those uh stocks that

0:36:40.920 --> 0:36:43.160
<v Speaker 1>are mentioned heavily, and you know, the Reddit boards and

0:36:43.160 --> 0:36:45.000
<v Speaker 1>things like that. So we don't think they've represents any

0:36:45.000 --> 0:36:47.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of financial risk. Got around, Brian. Thank you so much.

0:36:47.640 --> 0:36:51.800
<v Speaker 1>Brian Jacobson ever at Wells Fargo Asset Management. Thanks for

0:36:51.840 --> 0:36:55.640
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:36:55.760 --> 0:36:57.880
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:36:57.920 --> 0:37:00.040
<v Speaker 1>our radio show at two pm Eastern on bloom a

0:37:00.200 --> 0:37:03.319
<v Speaker 1>Radio or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News.

0:37:09.400 --> 0:37:09.440
<v Speaker 1>H