Speaker 1: The volume.
Speaker 2: This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Millman Sharper Square. He
Speaker 2: joins us from Europe. It's a very sophisticated Sharper Square.
Speaker 2: John Middlikoff on Kansas City's Big Flaw and Lincoln Riley
Speaker 2: doesn't fit in the NFL. John tells us why and
Speaker 2: my top takes of the week. Don't miss the action
Speaker 2: this weekend when the Indianapolis Colts and the New England
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Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills lost to the Bengals, a game in which
Speaker 2: I never ever felt after the first drive Buffalo would win.
Speaker 2: When I watched Buffalo, Greg co Sell talks about this
Speaker 2: all the time. They just call plays. There's not a
Speaker 2: lot of rhythms to their offense. I like their first
Speaker 2: drive in the second half for Buffalo, A lot they
Speaker 2: mixed it up tight end, wide receiver back. It felt
Speaker 2: like more than just calling plays. Cincinnati olways feels like
Speaker 2: it's a rhythm offense, and it feels like they have
Speaker 2: an offensive head coach. They get out of ruts very quickly.
Speaker 2: But you know, my first thought about Joe Burrow is
Speaker 2: he reminds me of a little bit of Joe Montana
Speaker 2: and a little bit of Tony Romo. He moves like Romo.
Speaker 2: But I can remember watching Joe Montana and this was,
Speaker 2: you know, long before I know was a talk show
Speaker 2: host and watching Joe Montana because I started in television.
Speaker 2: I didn't do this talk show thing until later in
Speaker 2: my career. Joe Montana. One of my takeaways from him
Speaker 2: is I could never quite figure out why Joe Montana
Speaker 2: was so great. Wasn't that big, didn't have a great arm.
Speaker 2: I just thought he was sort of situationally and this
Speaker 2: is very rare. He was better in crisis than he
Speaker 2: was in week five. He was better on fourth or
Speaker 2: third and three than he was on first and ten,
Speaker 2: just situationally excellent. Brady often had this, Michael Jordan had this,
Speaker 2: John Elway had this. But that's what I see with Burrow.
Speaker 2: He's almost a better quarterback in crisis. He's more laser focused,
Speaker 2: more intentional with his throws. You he'll sling one up occasionally,
Speaker 2: not a wasted throw, but an experimental up the sideline.
Speaker 2: You get him into third and four fourth down situations.
Speaker 2: He's just as good as they get. And he's got
Speaker 2: the romo movement with the accuracy and the situational kind
Speaker 2: of excellence of a Joe Montana. And you know, he
Speaker 2: doesn't move like Lamar hes not. He doesn't have the
Speaker 2: gun of Mahomes Herbert. He doesn't I don't think have
Speaker 2: the kind of the natural gifts at you know, fourteen
Speaker 2: years old that Trevor Lawrence had or and has. But
Speaker 2: Burrow just makes it look so easy all the time.
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's great. It doesn't look easy. There's effort. He
Speaker 2: puts on the Superman cape. He jumps over people, he's
Speaker 2: running past people, he's throwing it over people. It doesn't
Speaker 2: look easy for him. He's just excellent. But you know,
Speaker 2: and you know, with Buffalo, I just I don't. I
Speaker 2: feel like it's just they still. I've given up hope
Speaker 2: on the Buffalo Bills developing a good run game, defensive
Speaker 2: head coach, defensive head coach, and offensive lines don't go
Speaker 2: that well together. You know, if you look at the
Speaker 2: bottom of the NFL offensive line group to a lot
Speaker 2: of defensive coaches, the tops, a lot of offensive coaches.
Speaker 2: I've given up on running the football, so it becomes
Speaker 2: a very Josh Allen Stefon Diggs reliant And if you
Speaker 2: look at the Buffalo schedule coming up, this thing's gonna
Speaker 2: get uglier after Thanksgiving at Philadelphia at Kansas City, Dallas Chargers,
Speaker 2: New England at Miami. This was supposed to be the
Speaker 2: part of the schedule where they stacked up w's. I
Speaker 2: just don't think Zach Wilson has a feel for the game.
Speaker 2: Joe Burrows got obviously a great feel for the game.
Speaker 2: But some guys are just talented. They play the game.
Speaker 2: They don't think it. They play the game, they don't
Speaker 2: feel it. At quarterback, it's essential to feel the game right,
Speaker 2: and the good quarterbacks all have that ability. A lot
Speaker 2: of guys Johnny Manziel didn't love football. He just didn't
Speaker 2: love football. He didn't have a good feel for it.
Speaker 2: I don't think Zach Wilson has a feel for the game.
Speaker 2: So in the first half, he's running, he's scrambling, and
Speaker 2: he could have run for the first down, and instead
Speaker 2: he shovels it off and the back gets tackled and
Speaker 2: it was just a backyard play. You know, you do
Speaker 2: that flag football, hey school football. If you have any
Speaker 2: feel for the game, just keep the ball and run
Speaker 2: for a first down. And I don't think Zach has
Speaker 2: any feel for it. Troy Aikman, to his credit, was
Speaker 2: highly critical all night, and most analysts don't like to
Speaker 2: go there with athletes, especially on these big broadcasts a
Speaker 2: Sunday Night Football, a Monday Night Football, the big window game.
Speaker 2: You know, they know their words are listened to and
Speaker 2: they end up back in locker rooms. But Aikman, to
Speaker 2: his credit, has no patience for Zach Wilson, and he
Speaker 2: called him out multiple times. The very first pass of
Speaker 2: the game, Zach just has no feel for it, misses
Speaker 2: a layup. And by the way, I don't think Aikman
Speaker 2: would say that unless he's hearing that from the Jets,
Speaker 2: like he's very comfortable hammering on him. You can watch
Speaker 2: Saula's body language and exasperation throughout, and really the game
Speaker 2: came down very simply to this a special team's touchdown
Speaker 2: by the Chargers and Justin Herbert's ability on third down
Speaker 2: to pick up a handful of crucial first downs, and
Speaker 2: that's the game on the road. Sometimes it's just that simple.
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen with one of the catches of the year
Speaker 2: certainly helped to seal it. But I went back and
Speaker 2: looked at the NFL draft rundown on Zach Wilson tonight
Speaker 2: and as I'm just watching them scuff and struggle with everything,
Speaker 2: and you know, there was some obvious straints. He's got
Speaker 2: a good arms, some escapability. But if you just if
Speaker 2: you read that, it said boomer bust, potential decision making
Speaker 2: hero ball. I mean, it was all laid out. This
Speaker 2: is what scouts do professionally. I've leaned on him for years.
Speaker 2: They know what they're talking about. Now. Things didn't go perfectly.
Speaker 2: He has a defensive coach, the offensive lines not great.
Speaker 2: He really has one excellent receiver, Garrett Wilson, not much else.
Speaker 2: Alan Lazard still struggles to cat. So it's not like
Speaker 2: he's working with the components that a Mahomes would work with,
Speaker 2: or a Stafford with Sean McVay and Cooper Cup like
Speaker 2: I understand that, but you know, it just it really
Speaker 2: it just goes to show you that the margin, if
Speaker 2: you don't have a franchise quarterback, your margins are tiny.
Speaker 2: You have to play perfect football. You cannot surrender a
Speaker 2: special team's touchdown. You can't that seven nothing hole felt
Speaker 2: like twenty eight nothing for Joe Burrow, you know, twenty
Speaker 2: thirty nothing for Mahomes. It just felt like a massive
Speaker 2: hole you're digging your way out of. If you get
Speaker 2: a five yard delay of game penalty and it's now
Speaker 2: third and eight not third and three, it feels insurmountable.
Speaker 2: For Zach Wilson, the margins are so thin for air,
Speaker 2: so you have to play some perfect football. And I
Speaker 2: also think what happens is over the course of a
Speaker 2: season you're seeing it now, is that when you ask
Speaker 2: a defense to be the savior every drive, every quarter,
Speaker 2: every half, every game, they get discouraged. You're just asking
Speaker 2: guys to march out, make stop after stop after stop.
Speaker 2: And you get to about week eight, Week nine, Week ten,
Speaker 2: and even the Jets defense I think will dovetail a
Speaker 2: little bit here. I think it's just harder to ask
Speaker 2: guys to win every week. You know, It's like Lincoln
Speaker 2: Riley had to fire as defensive coordinator. I was talking
Speaker 2: to somebody in college football about that. I mean, you
Speaker 2: can't keep asking the offense to drop forty forty five
Speaker 2: and lose. You just divide a locker room. And so
Speaker 2: I don't believe Aaron Rodgers is going to come back.
Speaker 2: There's no point if you're out of the playoff race.
Speaker 2: If the Jets lose again a couple times in the
Speaker 2: next three weeks, what's the point of asking Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 2: to come back. Listen, go back to Week one. Aaron
Speaker 2: gets hurt. The fact that we're at this point in
Speaker 2: the season and there was some optimism around the Jets.
Speaker 2: It's kind of frankly surprising in a division where Miami
Speaker 2: looked Buffalo looked like real teams. Now they've both regressed.
Speaker 2: But I think you just go back to something. Really
Speaker 2: great players, really great quarterbacks. They make it look easy.
Speaker 1: C J.
Speaker 2: Stroud sees the field so well, really good decision maker,
Speaker 2: a quick thinker. CJ sees it, delivers it. He is
Speaker 2: a quick thinker. Zach, it's laboring hard, doesn't see things quickly.
Speaker 2: Judgment is slow, and this is what you get tonight ugly.
Speaker 2: You know what, I bet Zach Wilson over Justin Herbert
Speaker 2: my bad. I deserve all of it. At least I
Speaker 2: stayed awake for it. I mean, you gotta give you
Speaker 2: some credit. I deserve some credit. I feel like Robert
Speaker 2: Sola right now, Jet fans just exasperating. Running the Volume
Speaker 2: has been really interesting because when I first took my
Speaker 2: swing at the Volume, my takeaway was I'm not going
Speaker 2: to pay myself. I'm going to get really good management.
Speaker 2: And so you know, I didn't. I don't take a check.
Speaker 2: I'm glad not to because we have a really good staff.
Speaker 2: So having been in this business for twenty five years,
Speaker 2: one of the things I really recognized is there's a
Speaker 2: sea of money. You can make money, but you got
Speaker 2: to get really good people. Because I've worked for most
Speaker 2: of my career with really good, really good management, really
Speaker 2: good producers, and I've watched people's careers who are really
Speaker 2: talented circle to drain because they have bad bosses. And
Speaker 2: so I think people just don't understand it is not
Speaker 2: an even playing field. I mean, if you go look
Speaker 2: at the NFC West, the Paul Allen Fund, Jody and
Speaker 2: Paul Allen fund are the second richest owners in this
Speaker 2: league behind the Denver Broncos new owners. So you have
Speaker 2: those owners, the York families loaded Stan Kronk's top six
Speaker 2: to seven owner in terms of net worth, and the
Speaker 2: Bidwells are some of the poorest owners in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So the revenue, the ability to just go buy players.
Speaker 2: Everybody thinks, well, everybody's got the same salary cap. Not
Speaker 2: everybody has the same money. There's a huge gap between
Speaker 2: what Arizona can spend and what the Rams, San Francisco
Speaker 2: and Seattle can spend. And I just don't think people
Speaker 2: understand is that the reason the Bears have been bad
Speaker 2: forever is they don't have good owners. They don't have
Speaker 2: wealthy owners. They don't have good owners. They have the
Speaker 2: oldest owner of Virginia McCaskey. In the entire NFL. It's
Speaker 2: not a dynamic, vibrant ownership group. And that's what holds
Speaker 2: everything back. I mean, just when they hired Matt Eberfluf,
Speaker 2: I mean, look around the league, look at the offensive coaches.
Speaker 2: Look at who is flourishing. It's overwhelmingly offensive coaches right now.
Speaker 2: Mike McDaniels in Miami looks like they have a chance
Speaker 2: if they can write the ship, win the division. And
Speaker 2: then there's you know, Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow surging.
Speaker 2: If not Cleveland offensive coach, Jacksonville offensive coach, Kansas City
Speaker 2: offensive coach. Then you go over to the NFC Dallas
Speaker 2: and Philadelphia offensive coach, Detroit Leeds their division offensive coach,
Speaker 2: NFC West could be Kyle Shanahan. They have the best team,
Speaker 2: I think, best roster offensive coach, So you know, and
Speaker 2: they what are the Bears do? I mean you're paying
Speaker 2: attention at all.
Speaker 1: So.
Speaker 2: I you know, I just think sometimes we forget there's
Speaker 2: only so much you can do. The employees always get
Speaker 2: blamed for overwhelmingly for problems with productivity or performance at
Speaker 2: any company in America. You can't overcome lousy ownership. You
Speaker 2: just can't. That's why when I I built the volume,
Speaker 2: it was like I was going to go and find
Speaker 2: the best available people to run it. We have an
Speaker 2: incredible staff and it's made this voyage two and a
Speaker 2: half years much easier than I thought it would be.
Speaker 2: I don't have to overcome incompetence. I walk in every day.
Speaker 2: I just had a meeting today about some financials and
Speaker 2: about you know where we're headed, and it's just an
Speaker 2: It's so nice to work with smart people. Chicago has
Speaker 2: never once founded in nineteen twenty. They've never once had
Speaker 2: the best quarterback in the league, never in any decade,
Speaker 2: any era, arguably never in a single year. Jay Cutler's
Speaker 2: are all time passing leader. You can keep blaming all
Speaker 2: the coaches and the general managers, but it's a really
Speaker 2: dysfunctional organization. My wife wants us to live in Chicago,
Speaker 2: and I really do love it. Don't love their winners,
Speaker 2: but I love it. And I'm like, honey, I don't
Speaker 2: know if I can live in a city with that
Speaker 2: bad of an NFL franchise. I don't know if I
Speaker 2: can do it. It's under consideration, but I don't know if
Speaker 2: I can do it. In sports, the scoreboard doesn't always
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Speaker 2: Scout three and Out podcast on the Volume. Okay, so
Speaker 2: I do want to talk Kansas City Miami. I thought
Speaker 2: Kansas City made a complete statement in the first half
Speaker 2: and then, like Philadelphia, you feel like they're kind of
Speaker 2: holding on. I will say this about Kansas City though,
Speaker 2: they have a clear hole and it's never going to
Speaker 2: be a strength. They're just not specialist wide receiver. Now
Speaker 2: their first drive, they gave you a little bit of everything.
Speaker 2: I do think this receiving group will get better. It's young,
Speaker 2: there's no number one. I'm not sure there's a number two,
Speaker 2: but I'll tell you that first half defense against Miami
Speaker 2: that was one of the more impressive first halfs. I
Speaker 2: mean Miami was just the speed. This is without Bolton,
Speaker 2: the speed of Kansas City's defense. So I as I
Speaker 2: sat and watched that first half, I thought, oh, does
Speaker 2: it This is Baltimore, Kansas City, Cincinnati, that's the conference.
Speaker 2: And then in the second half they didn't really have
Speaker 2: a second third gear. What did you make of Kansas City?
Speaker 2: I came away and pressed because they flew in very
Speaker 2: late for this thing. Totally sees control early. But they
Speaker 2: can't put people away this year. John, they're not putting
Speaker 2: people away.
Speaker 3: Well, they're gonna struggle to score twenty five points. I
Speaker 3: mean they just are the underrated part about them because
Speaker 3: Mahomes Kelsey now especially this Kelsey over the last month,
Speaker 3: and Andy Reid take up so much oxygen. They're kind of
Speaker 3: a defensive team. I mean, Hill and Waddle had one
Speaker 3: hundred yards one hundred and four yards total. Like, if
Speaker 3: you're holding those guys to around one hundred yards, you're
Speaker 3: gonna beat them. They're twenty one nothing in half. Like
Speaker 3: I'm sorry the game's over. I thought there was a
Speaker 3: lot more pressure. Kansas City's now proven exactly who they
Speaker 3: are over a five year stretch. Like, I'm pretty confident
Speaker 3: when the dust pedtles, they're gonna be in the mix
Speaker 3: in the divisional round and more than likely the championship
Speaker 3: game in the AFC. This was kind of a proven
Speaker 3: game for Miami, right, you lose to Philly in Buffalo. Granted,
Speaker 3: now both on the road. You get a neutral site game,
Speaker 3: you fly out there on Monday, and you're down twenty
Speaker 3: one nothing at half, twenty one nothing in half. And
Speaker 3: like you said, this ain't the Chiefs first rodeo check
Speaker 3: out a little bit. They're not explosive enough on offense
Speaker 3: to just take off, but they make enough plays when
Speaker 3: they have to. Miami kind of gets a freak fumble
Speaker 3: there in the second half for Mahomes, right, But to me,
Speaker 3: this was the Chiefs established in the first half, Like
Speaker 3: you're not on our level, just like Buffalo and Philly
Speaker 3: said that earlier. And listen, Miami's a fun story their
Speaker 3: coaches and needs to get to root for when they're rolling.
Speaker 3: They're a fun team to watch. But I think it's
Speaker 3: pretty clear whatever the upper rechelant tier in the AFC
Speaker 3: is obviously. Baltimore's in it, Kansas City's in it. I
Speaker 3: think Cincinnati's in it. Buffalo they are not. You know, yeah,
Speaker 3: and that was We don't even need to argue that anymore.
Speaker 3: I think the only question now is could they win
Speaker 3: a playoff game. I wouldn't bet on them because it's
Speaker 3: going to be more likely a road playoff game, but
Speaker 3: they're going to get back to back playoffs. Obviously the
Speaker 3: franchise is head in the right direction, but in terms
Speaker 3: of like AFC contenders, it is not the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 2: I don't know if USC will go out and spend
Speaker 2: a lot of money on the defensive coordinator. But how
Speaker 2: do you view this season and Lincoln Riley's sort of legacy.
Speaker 2: I know it's early in his career to talk about that,
Speaker 2: but I always viewed him as potentially an NFL guy,
Speaker 2: and my takeaway now is he's not. He just has
Speaker 2: no McVeigh chest out. Alpha loves defense, Shanahan loves physicality.
Speaker 2: Shanahan don't care about special teams, but he loves defense.
Speaker 2: Right Andy Reid spags Andy accept realizes what defense is.
Speaker 2: Lincoln doesn't even he didn't have a special teams coach.
Speaker 2: He's lobsided as a coach. What do you think is
Speaker 2: legacy right now?
Speaker 3: Is well, I think and listen, I it's easy to
Speaker 3: crush him right now. Like probably most people, when they
Speaker 3: hired him, it was a no brainer hire.
Speaker 2: You had to do it.
Speaker 3: But I think when you look back, the Big twelve
Speaker 3: is not very good and no one plays defense, and
Speaker 3: he was able to take advantage of it. He ran
Speaker 3: into clearly the best year of the Pac twelve has
Speaker 3: had in a long time. He's of getting worked right.
Speaker 3: He loses to Utah, he loses this game, He's gonna
Speaker 3: be a huge underdog this upcoming week. You know, to Oregon.
Speaker 3: UCLA's leaking oil a little bit, but I think it's
Speaker 3: a disaster Colin simply put, I think it's one of
Speaker 3: the biggest underachievements given the quarterback playing offense. Because when
Speaker 3: you're at a program like this, you have unlimited resources
Speaker 3: to hire the best and the brightest. You know, when
Speaker 3: you look at some of these other college coaches, they
Speaker 3: go to like the Baltimore Ravens and get their secondary
Speaker 3: coach and make them, you know, their defensive coordinator just hell,
Speaker 3: Chip Kelly's defensive coordinators, Anthony Lynch's Sun who if you
Speaker 3: look at his resume, had been in the NFL for
Speaker 3: the last decade, came from the Ravens, and what is
Speaker 3: UCLA a lot better on defense. So it's like, I
Speaker 3: don't know, if you tell me who Lincoln's next defensive coordinator,
Speaker 3: I would not be very confident that you're gonna go.
Speaker 3: That's a no brainer choice, right, because you look at
Speaker 3: the guys that his We talked about it last week
Speaker 3: when they were, you know, lose to Utah. Where'd he
Speaker 3: find this guy? Well, he was a Mike Leech guy. Right,
Speaker 3: it's a thing and he's not to me. Part of
Speaker 3: going to the NFL too. Think of some of the
Speaker 3: coaches that went to the NFL from college, most recently
Speaker 3: beside Harbaugh, who was an NFL guy, Urban Meyer never
Speaker 3: coached today. Didn't know what to do and he was
Speaker 3: completely over said. Chip is a good example of a
Speaker 3: guy that had some success, but his problem is he
Speaker 3: didn't know any defensive coaches, so he couldn't hire very
Speaker 3: good defensive coordinators and that was always his downfall. And
Speaker 3: now Lincoln is kind of going through this in college
Speaker 3: and I go back to Pete Carroll era. Pete Carroll's
Speaker 3: staff was really, really good. It had a perfect blend
Speaker 3: of like young up and coming guys like the Sarks
Speaker 3: and the Lanes, and then the older Norm Chow's, Ken Norton's,
Speaker 3: the recruiters, the NFL experience, the young, offensive, innovative guys,
Speaker 3: and I just look, I go, I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 3: because when he took over at Oklahoma, it was Bob
Speaker 3: Stoop's brother he inherited. They ultimately fired him for this guy,
Speaker 3: and it's just kind of unraveled and he brings them
Speaker 3: with him. I don't have much confidence that he's going
Speaker 3: to hire a guy that people are going to feel very,
Speaker 3: very good about. Because I also think it's a culture
Speaker 3: in the way you practice. When you practice like he
Speaker 3: does with his offensive style, you don't really create a
Speaker 3: tough physicality. That's always what people have said defensive coaches
Speaker 3: whenever you met him at these spread offense schools, and
Speaker 3: specifically the air raid type schools. I know he's not
Speaker 3: true air raid anymore. It's like hard to improve the
Speaker 3: toughness on a daily basis on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
Speaker 3: in practice.
Speaker 2: No I mean it's I don't think it's a coincidence. Tomlin,
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell, Mike Vrabel. I think the essence of their physicality,
Speaker 2: the essence of their personality, the way they structure practice
Speaker 2: is more physical. I mean every Vrabel team, every Tomlin team.
Speaker 2: I mean, even though they're an offensive team more than defense,
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell, it's a physical offense. They can run the ball,
Speaker 2: is I think. I think sometimes with Mike McDaniel and
Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley, I think they're really clever offensively and really smart,
Speaker 2: and I think they structure their culture and their program
Speaker 2: and their practice like that, and it's really smart and clever.
Speaker 2: But do they build the toughness? Is that part of
Speaker 2: the personality, And I just I don't think it's a
Speaker 2: coincidence sometimes that the same kind of physical, kind of big,
Speaker 2: physical men. Don't you think they structure practice differently.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, I'm not blaming Caleb because you gotta
Speaker 3: sign Caleb. You had to pay Caleb to get him.
Speaker 3: Every team in the country would have done that. But
Speaker 3: I do think when the way they've built it, it
Speaker 3: was all so Caleb heavy that it almost sucked the
Speaker 3: oxygen out of everything else. And you watch it this
Speaker 3: year and the last couple of weeks haven't been his fault.
Speaker 3: The Notre Dame game, he wasn't very good, But it
Speaker 3: just feels like if he is not, because even you
Speaker 3: go back to some of the heyday Pete Carroll teams
Speaker 3: or some of those good Harball teams or Chip Kelly teams,
Speaker 3: it was never all about Mariota or Luck or Matt
Speaker 3: Lion or they were more complete team. And this thing
Speaker 3: just felt like a basketball team. It was like Caleb
Speaker 3: Williams and then everyone else. And that is not the
Speaker 3: way you win in football. It's just not. And they've
Speaker 3: been clearly exploited. Even Washington is a good example. They're
Speaker 3: best players are quarterback, but they don't. He wasn't, I
Speaker 3: would say otherworldly against USC running back came through defense.
Speaker 3: It's got some big stops. You watch Oregon their complete team.
Speaker 3: Look at what Nick Saban's doing. You talk to any
Speaker 3: NFL scout, they're like, this is the least talented team
Speaker 3: in like fifteen years. All of a sudden, he's gonna
Speaker 3: be back in the SEC championship game.
Speaker 2: All right. We are trying at the volume to be
Speaker 2: a global company, and today is the first step in
Speaker 2: being a global company. Because Chad Millman in our Sharper
Speaker 2: Square segment CCO Action Network all on provided by DraftKings,
Speaker 2: is joining us from I think Copenhagen.
Speaker 4: It's pronounced Copenhagen.
Speaker 2: Sorry, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 4: Yes, I am in Copenhagen. This is your kind of town, brother,
Speaker 4: Like why why? It is a classy like it is
Speaker 4: full on first class operation. It is gorgeous. You can't
Speaker 4: find the streets, there can be no cars coming. If
Speaker 4: there is a don't walk sign, nobody's moving. It is
Speaker 4: like full of proper etiquette. The best restaurant town in
Speaker 4: the world, no joke. The best restaurant in the world,
Speaker 4: legendary called Noma, has been in Copenhagen for a generation.
Speaker 4: All the chefs who end up working at Noma stay
Speaker 4: in Copenhagen. Open restaurants, like a bad restaurant is one
Speaker 4: Michelin star Kylent. Tonight, I went to a hole in
Speaker 4: the wall Italian place that was a ten course tasting
Speaker 4: menu that they were bad mouthing nutella because they're like
Speaker 4: hazel nut chocolate spread that they make was so good
Speaker 4: it should be illegal. Gorgeous, gorgeous town architecture, is amazing,
Speaker 4: a great mix of classic, you know, medieval type of
Speaker 4: stuff with this beautiful modern architecture. It's just it's enchanted.
Speaker 4: I've been I've been overwhelmed, like just wonderful.
Speaker 2: Well, I was going to go there anyway, but now
Speaker 2: you talk me into it. The company that bought you
Speaker 2: knows sports gambling. Yeah, last week was a terrible, audaciously
Speaker 2: bad week. I went two and three. My bad. I
Speaker 2: should have taken Herbert overs Act. Nonetheless, I think this
Speaker 2: week there are more definitive there's more clarity in some
Speaker 2: of the sides I like. So let me start with
Speaker 2: this Dbo's back. I could see the Niners being great,
Speaker 2: but if I get Trevor Lawrence at home and a
Speaker 2: field goal, I'm going to take it. I like Brock pretty,
Speaker 2: but we got film. Now they're limitations. I'm taking the
Speaker 2: better quarterback at home. Increasingly, the better quarterback is winning
Speaker 2: a lot of these games. I'm taking the Jag sharper square.
Speaker 4: So here's what's interesting, and we're going to get to
Speaker 4: this about good quarterbacks bad quarterbacks. It's the sharp side.
Speaker 4: The wise guys are on the Jags. The Jags have
Speaker 4: been very sneaky under the radar good. Right, they went
Speaker 4: to London, they won a couple of games, they came
Speaker 4: back home, they won again. They're on a buy. They're
Speaker 4: six and two, they're leading the A's South. They're right
Speaker 4: under that tier right right now, everyone's saying, look at
Speaker 4: the Ravens, look at the Bengals, watch out for the Jags.
Speaker 4: And when you get the Niners on the road, historically
Speaker 4: as a favorite, they're not as good. And what you
Speaker 4: just said about brock Purty is what a lot of
Speaker 4: wise guys are thinking. There's film out on brock Purty. Now.
Speaker 4: The one thing that has been aligned with his bad
Speaker 4: streak has been the loss of Deebo Samuel and was
Speaker 4: he or was he not concussed in the last couple
Speaker 4: of games, and that sort of had an impact on
Speaker 4: how it was playing. So if you are betting on
Speaker 4: the Jags, you're buying Doug Peterson, You're buying Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 4: You're buying the fact that Doug Peterson historically also a
Speaker 4: much better coach against the spread in the second half
Speaker 4: of the year. Trevor Lawrence last year eighteen of his
Speaker 4: twenty eight touchdown passes. Second half of the year, we
Speaker 4: saw what he did in the playoffs against the Chargers.
Speaker 4: He has been a much better quarterback. Doug Peterson is
Speaker 4: a better coach because all of a sudden he's figuring
Speaker 4: out It's a little bit like Sean Payton in this way,
Speaker 4: he's figuring out what his team can do, and he's
Speaker 4: much more focused on how do I make this team
Speaker 4: improve quarter by quarter over the course of the season.
Speaker 4: And so this team has been getting better. Exactly the
Speaker 4: four week mark, the team started to get better.
Speaker 2: All right. This is an interesting one because I do
Speaker 2: like Cincinnati a lot, but they go from the Bills
Speaker 2: and then they have the Ravens the following week. It's
Speaker 2: a sandwich game. Jamar Chase probably doesn't play. T Higgins
Speaker 2: is not practicing. Again, I think they're better than the Texans,
Speaker 2: but the Texans are getting a touchdown. It's a more
Speaker 2: than capable offense sandwich game for the Bengals. I would
Speaker 2: go Houston sharper square.
Speaker 4: So the wise guys like Houston when the numbers at seven,
Speaker 4: and we've talked about this before, right like the value
Speaker 4: of that numbers. So at seven, the wise guys were
Speaker 4: betting Houston. They continue to be amazed at CJ. Stroud
Speaker 4: and his ability to move the ball down the field.
Speaker 4: Look what he did against Tampa in forty seconds, going
Speaker 4: seventy five yards for that game winning touchdown was really remarkable.
Speaker 4: The guy clearly understands what's happening at the NFL level
Speaker 4: and is the right guy for the Texans, which is
Speaker 4: why they bet the Texans at plus seven. But it
Speaker 4: got to six and a half and the wise guys
Speaker 4: took the Bengals again, So this is clearly about a number.
Speaker 4: They've decided seven is the line of demarcation, and if
Speaker 4: they're going to get under seven, they're taking the Bengals.
Speaker 4: If they can get the touchdown, they're taking the Texans.
Speaker 2: Oh finally, I never do this, but I think Tommy
Speaker 2: DeVito is incapable of a touchdown drive if the Cowboys
Speaker 2: kick it up. Fumble interceptions certainly capable. I think Dallas
Speaker 2: wins forty four to nine. I would take Dallas minus sixteen.
Speaker 2: I think the Giants are the worst offense in years
Speaker 2: with the Vito quarterbacking. You know, I don't lay these numbers.
Speaker 2: If I told you this game was twenty four to
Speaker 2: nothing in the first quarter, would you be shocked? I
Speaker 2: know it's not the sharp side. I'm taking Dallas.
Speaker 4: Surprised the amount of chatter I've heard about wise guys
Speaker 4: betting Dallas this week because they feel like this game
Speaker 4: could be fifty four to nothing, Like there's actually not
Speaker 4: a number that could be big enough. And sometimes you
Speaker 4: do you lay the points when it's that clear. And
Speaker 4: don't forget dak as An as a favorite now again,
Speaker 4: normally he's in like a say, three to ten points final.
Speaker 2: But a home favorite. He's pretty good home favorite.
Speaker 4: We've said this, We've said this on the show, and
Speaker 4: it's why we liked the Eagles last week. I think
Speaker 4: the Cowboys are front runners. I think they when they
Speaker 4: are comfortable, they act like champions, they play like champions.
Speaker 4: When they face adversity, they cannot execute. This is a
Speaker 4: time where the Cowboys will convince themselves they are champions
Speaker 4: and can contend in the NFC, and it's their chance
Speaker 4: to show it all.
Speaker 2: Right now, we play the game where I'm going to
Speaker 2: give you a game I want you to talk me
Speaker 2: into because I want to watch it, and then what
Speaker 2: did I miss? Let's start with the Steelers. Packers. All
Speaker 2: of our odds provided by DraftKings what's the current number?
Speaker 2: Talk me into a side here.
Speaker 4: All right, this is tough. The number is three, potentially
Speaker 4: going to be three and a half. The wise guys
Speaker 4: love the Packers in this spot. Look, Tomlin as a
Speaker 4: favorite is not the same as Tomlin as a dog.
Speaker 4: And this is a spot where the Steelers continue to win.
Speaker 4: They're a bit fraudulent. You look at their metrics. They
Speaker 4: shouldn't have the record they have. Right. Meanwhile, we do
Speaker 4: this thing called the luck Rankings at Action Network that
Speaker 4: basically takes a lot of stats and a lot of
Speaker 4: unpredictability in the games and even them out and gives
Speaker 4: you a metric that says these are things that do
Speaker 4: not normally happen, but they skew people's perception of a team.
Speaker 4: Right now, the Steelers are the luckiest team in the NFL.
Speaker 4: And by the way, Steelers have been the luckiest team
Speaker 4: in the NFL three in the past five years. Packer's
Speaker 4: one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. The difference
Speaker 4: between these two teams is twenty nine spots. So there's
Speaker 4: a lot of data there to tell you. I got
Speaker 4: to take the Packers here, and I don't like it,
Speaker 4: and I don't think you like it, but I do
Speaker 4: have some games that I think you might like it.
Speaker 2: I guess. Okay, So now it's time for what did
Speaker 2: I miss?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 2: I don't like this dumpster diving stuff. I'm a man
Speaker 2: that likes Copenhagen and elegance, so I don't stick my
Speaker 2: head in a dumpster very often. I did last week
Speaker 2: with the Jets and a close clamped on my head.
Speaker 2: I know this is this is the ugly portion. I
Speaker 2: think Josh Dobbs's story is a great story. I wonder
Speaker 2: if that was a close. I loved the story. So
Speaker 2: what did I miss? Chad Melman, give me the game
Speaker 2: I missed?
Speaker 4: These are games that Colin, the King and Queen of
Speaker 4: Denmark would love to bet these games. They are so
Speaker 4: their choice, they are so classy, They're just the best.
Speaker 4: How did we not you don't want a dumpster dive?
Speaker 4: How are we not talking about the Browns like? This
Speaker 4: makes no sense to me? Because don't give me that look.
Speaker 4: Let me let me let me say, okay, okay, I
Speaker 4: know you. You're afraid of betting against Lamar Jackson because
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson has been so good and Lamar Jackson is
Speaker 4: finally on a path to win the MVP, and the
Speaker 4: Ravens look like they could be the most complete team
Speaker 4: in the NFL. The Browns had a much much better defense.
Speaker 4: The Browns have someone in Miles Garrett who is one
Speaker 4: of the most dominant players in the NFL. Not most
Speaker 4: dominant defensive player, literally most dominant player. You talk about
Speaker 4: a stat that ESPN does that is really cool called
Speaker 4: pass rush win rate. It basically says how often when
Speaker 4: he's on the field is he making an impact as
Speaker 4: a pass rusher on plays right leads the league in
Speaker 4: pass rush win rate. Same thing when you talk about
Speaker 4: him against the run. If you talk about the Browns
Speaker 4: on defense overall, they are better in the Ravens at
Speaker 4: every metric. This is a dominant defense. And if you're
Speaker 4: talking about a divisional game, home teams in divisional games
Speaker 4: the past five years covering forty seven percent CLIP home
Speaker 4: favorites divisional games covering forty six percent CLIP. Lamar Jackson
Speaker 4: as a favorite of more than three and a half
Speaker 4: under five hundred for his career. John Harbaugh as a
Speaker 4: favorite of just as a favorite period under five hundred
Speaker 4: in his career. I am actually shocked that this line
Speaker 4: is where it's at. That it's gone from five to
Speaker 4: six in someplace to six and a half. If you're
Speaker 4: not taking the Browns. This is a game you can watch.
Speaker 4: You're gonna enjoy it, That's right, it's gonna be fun.
Speaker 2: Well, my natural instinct is to take Cleveland. I'm just
Speaker 2: not sure. I trust Deshan Watson and the Ravens defense.
Speaker 2: I just don't. But we've said this before. It's one
Speaker 2: of the more simple plays. If you have a capable
Speaker 2: quarterback and you're getting points as a divisional rival. I mean,
Speaker 2: we took we should have won it. We pushed, We
Speaker 2: took Sam Howell against Jalen Hurts and the game was
Speaker 2: in I think, Philly, you just do it. Just you
Speaker 2: just do it. As long as you're underdog. Sam Hall
Speaker 2: is more than capable at quarterback. We've seen New England
Speaker 2: beat Buffalo this year. You just do it. We've seen
Speaker 2: the Jets beat Buffalo. You just do it. So I
Speaker 2: believe me, I have less trouble doing it. You talk,
Speaker 2: that's a good side. That's a good side. All right,
Speaker 2: Give me one more.
Speaker 4: How about the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 2: I thought about that. It's seven and a half. It's tasty.
Speaker 4: It's tasty. I'm meeting that whole meal that is the
Speaker 4: Copenhagen restaurant of bets on Monday.
Speaker 2: I'm all offensive coach a capable quarterback on a bye week.
Speaker 2: I thought about that the other thing. Greg Cosell said
Speaker 2: something this week that I'd thought, but the film showed it.
Speaker 2: Buffalo is not nearly as talented now that they lost
Speaker 2: our top corner, top linebacker, and a defensive lineman. They're
Speaker 2: just not that talented a roster.
Speaker 4: They lost playmakers at every level of their defense. Josh
Speaker 4: Allen has to be perfect for them to win games,
Speaker 4: and even when he is. Meanwhile, the development of the
Speaker 4: Broncos defense, they've just been getting better. And this is
Speaker 4: another one of those things. Right we talk about Doug Peterson,
Speaker 4: Sean Payton is on that level of Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichick,
Speaker 4: Mike Vrabel, coaches who you want to be betting on
Speaker 4: because over the past generation they're some of the most
Speaker 4: profitable coaches against the spread in the NFL. And I
Speaker 4: think there's some inflation here because people continue to think
Speaker 4: about the Broncos as being what the Broncos were the
Speaker 4: first three games when their defense was so bad. But look,
Speaker 4: if you look at DVOA, you know, a very fancy
Speaker 4: advanced stat that takes it into account a lot of
Speaker 4: different strength of schedule elements. DVOA for the Broncos defense
Speaker 4: the past three games thirteenth, DVOA for the Bills offense
Speaker 4: thirty first. So we're talking about a team here that
Speaker 4: is just improving incrementally. Like people thought, Patrick Mahomes had
Speaker 4: the flu and so that's why he didn't perform well
Speaker 4: in that game the Broncos won. But it turns out
Speaker 4: maybe the Broncos defense was just really good because Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes has been having his issues and they made him
Speaker 4: look even worse. So I think there's a lot of
Speaker 4: upside here. This is one of those classic pros Joe's games.
Speaker 4: The betting tickets meaning the bet public, the non professional
Speaker 4: betters predominantly on the Bills. The money. That's what the
Speaker 4: wise guys are, that's on the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Yeah, finally, what airline are you flying? Did you fly
Speaker 2: from Hartford to Copenhagen or Amsterdam? Or did you fly
Speaker 2: but I fly Logan a lot? Where did you fly?
Speaker 2: What are you flying?
Speaker 1: Back?
Speaker 4: I flew out of JFK. But Colin, if I tell
Speaker 4: you what I'm flying, I got to deal with the
Speaker 4: proper razzi when I get back. I can't.
Speaker 2: I can't do that.
Speaker 1: I'm flying on SAS, which is Scandinavian Airlines and obviously
Speaker 1: serves you know, Copenhagen and other Scandinavian countries.
Speaker 2: May I suggest at some point in your life you
Speaker 2: fly Swiss Air.
Speaker 4: I've heard it's lovely.
Speaker 2: It's lovely, Yes, that's what I Is this the part.
Speaker 4: Of the podcast where a lead media people turn off
Speaker 4: all of the listeners.
Speaker 2: No, because you don't have aspiration first, Yeah, aspirational. We're
Speaker 2: like Joel Ostein with Football's right, We're Tony Robbins without
Speaker 2: the real estate. We're just saying exactly, you can fly
Speaker 2: economy economy Swiss Air. It's still Swiss Air. So I fly.
Speaker 2: I try to do business so I can watch documentaries.
Speaker 2: Swiss Air is my favorite airline, even more than British
Speaker 2: Airline in Delta, Cathay Pacific. I love Swiss Air. I
Speaker 2: have everything about it. It's elegant without being bougie.
Speaker 4: Do they give you a complimentary toberon candy bar?
Speaker 2: They give you champagne they do give you chocolate. Yes,
Speaker 2: they do. They give you chocolate. I just I found
Speaker 2: it and I flew icelandic air which doesn't have a
Speaker 2: great international reputation to Raikovic. I gotta tell you though,
Speaker 2: my son and I loved it. It was fun. I
Speaker 2: like new airlines. I like new stuff. I'm for new
Speaker 2: stuff and so I.
Speaker 4: Too, especially for new places. Those are the best.
Speaker 2: No, hey, listen, it's you know, and I've said this
Speaker 2: the you know, the lax is a zoo. But the
Speaker 2: international part of it's great, and I wish more Americans
Speaker 2: myself included, did more international travel. You know, I've done
Speaker 2: so much Mexico, so much Canada. Uh so, I've done
Speaker 2: London three or four times. But it's I can't wait
Speaker 2: for the part of my life where I can do
Speaker 2: you know, a ten week, ten day, two week trip
Speaker 2: every May in August. It's not that far off to
Speaker 2: go to Europe. It's just fun. It's a different pace.
Speaker 2: I like the pace of Europe.
Speaker 4: Oh, I love it. And you know what I hope
Speaker 4: for you? Listen, kid, you keep working hard. You're gonna
Speaker 4: be able soon enough to scratch together enough Nichols you
Speaker 4: can get over to you can get over to Europe
Speaker 4: if you want to.
Speaker 2: I Will'm gonna make a point of it, all right, buddy,
Speaker 2: you enjoy Copenhagen.
Speaker 4: Great to hear from you, all right, brother, I thought
Speaker 4: you are.
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