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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we.

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Speaker 2: Go spreading the court. Ten seconds of eating.

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Speaker 3: We just go show me up to the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's the truth for the wind God,

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Speaker 2: a miracle up the water.

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Speaker 1: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: college Basketball Final Four betting preview. I'm stuck in joining

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Speaker 2: me as always are my two highly steen co hosts,

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Speaker 2: Mike Calvary's and BJ Cunningham, but now both met in person.

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Speaker 2: Met Bj in Denver over the summer and somehow made

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Speaker 2: my flight, and then met Mike over the weekend in

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Speaker 2: Hoboken at our Elite eight watch party, which went very

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Speaker 2: well for all those that we're backing FAU and Yukon

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Speaker 2: and somehow made my flight. But it was a pleasure

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Speaker 2: to meet you. Mike. You had FAU right too.

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Speaker 1: I have an FAU three hundred and one second SDSU

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Speaker 1: one hundred to one, so I got one of those

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Speaker 1: long shots in the title game. But at this point,

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Speaker 1: the hedging opportunities are going to be so great. If

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Speaker 1: Ukon just steamrolls Miami and opens is like an eight

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Speaker 1: point favorite in the title game. So I'm putting on

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Speaker 1: my Cans hat here for the national semifinals.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a very interesting final four. By the way,

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Speaker 2: we'll break down both games. We'll get to our best bets.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk a little props. Yeah, Yukon has looked. I mean,

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Speaker 2: for all the talk, we have what a a nine,

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Speaker 2: a five, a five, and a four seed. The total

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Speaker 2: collective seats some of the twenty three that's actually not

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Speaker 2: the highest in tournament history. It's the second highest. The

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Speaker 2: highest occurred back in twenty eleven, where the total seats

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Speaker 2: in the final four I ended up to twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Guess what, We're very eerie in twenty eleven. Guess what

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Speaker 2: the attorney was Houston. There were two mid majors also in

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Speaker 2: that final four, Vcu and Butler and Yukon also ended

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Speaker 2: up winning the national title and beating him in major.

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Speaker 2: So if we do, if FAU loses to Yukon in

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Speaker 2: the title, history will repeat itself in Space City DJ.

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Speaker 2: Before we get into these games, how was your weekend?

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Speaker 2: How are you feeling excited about Caitlyn Clark in the Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I was, I women look fantastic right now.

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Speaker 4: I'm obviously gonna play South Carolina. I hasn't lost a

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Speaker 4: game yet this season, so that's daunting. But it should

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Speaker 4: be a wonderful, wonderful final four. I mean, she's incredible,

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Speaker 4: Like she is just like the Steph Curry of women's basketball.

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Speaker 4: Like she is anywhere on the floor, she is available

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Speaker 4: to shoot in the Iowa offense. Is just so so

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Speaker 4: fun to watch. Second ever final four for the Hawks.

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Speaker 4: But Gray Winch She's really really exciting.

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Speaker 2: No great weekend.

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Speaker 1: I also had.

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Speaker 4: FAU and Yukon, so it was a great, great Saturday,

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Speaker 4: then had Texas.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday and watched them melt down towards the end.

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Speaker 4: But you know what, It's funny because we talked about

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Speaker 4: how there are no good teams of college basketball, this

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Speaker 4: is the most wide open year, and then it happens

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Speaker 4: and everybody's like, wait what. I don't want to watch

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Speaker 4: San Diego State FAU. I don't want to see Miami

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Speaker 4: against Yukon. Where's Kentucky, Where's Alabama?

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Speaker 1: Where's all the.

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Speaker 4: Blue blood's at? So I think it's awesome. I think

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Speaker 4: the parody is incredible. I think this is what makes

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Speaker 4: college basketball so wonderful that had been major team like

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Speaker 4: Florida Atlantic, if which I was reading that Dusty May

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Speaker 4: actually wanted to back out of the Florida Atlantic job

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Speaker 4: in twenty eighteen after he signed the contract, before he

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Speaker 4: even saw the facilities at Boca Ratone, and after he

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Speaker 4: saw them, he was like, I don't know if I

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Speaker 4: can do this, like because they're so bad, and now

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Speaker 4: suddenly they're in the Final Four four years later. So

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Speaker 4: it's yeah, it's it's what makes honestly, it's what makes

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Speaker 4: college basketball so great. So yeah, I'm excited, but I'm

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Speaker 4: excited for the Final Four. I think it should be

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Speaker 4: a great, great time in Houston.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I love the CA As long

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Speaker 2: as their line, there's line. That's all I care about.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, if you move, if you want to move

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Speaker 4: the tournaments in ninety teams, as long as you line

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Speaker 4: the games, I don't care.

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Speaker 2: Just and we do have three programs making their call

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Speaker 2: it their Final Four debut, which hasn't happened since nineteen seventy.

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Speaker 2: And if Yukon wins the title, they'd win their fourth

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Speaker 2: since ninety nine, I think. And there's not been. No

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Speaker 2: other team has one more than two. And look, we

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Speaker 2: say there's no great teams. But before but non conference schedule,

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Speaker 2: Yukon looked like a bower. Ause Yukon is now at

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Speaker 2: the number one on ken Pom. They were number one

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Speaker 2: per Torvik since February first, leading up to the tournament,

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Speaker 2: and they have blown out everybody by at least fifteen

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Speaker 2: points in the gaverage margin of victory twenty two and

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Speaker 2: a half pints. We'll get to that game second, before

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Speaker 2: we get to fau San State want to kind of

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Speaker 2: lay lay the landscape of the final four. Just some

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Speaker 2: high level trends. Final four favorites of going eighteen fifteen

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Speaker 2: and one about fifty five percent against the spreads in

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Speaker 2: two thousand and five, although team's laying six or fewer points,

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Speaker 2: as will be the case Saturday, as of now, have

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Speaker 2: faired a bit better fifteen nine and one against the

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Speaker 2: spreads sixty two and a half percent total wise overs

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Speaker 2: of slightly edged unders over that span since twenty and five,

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Speaker 2: eighteen and sixteen, but closing totals of one thirty or

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Speaker 2: greater have cashed, which both of these are have cashed

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Speaker 2: at sixty two point one percent eighteen and eleven. And

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Speaker 2: for whatever reason, you know, these are small sample sides.

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Speaker 2: You don't take too much from it, but for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: teams do tend to play a little bit faster out

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Speaker 2: of the gates in the Final four compared to the

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Speaker 2: Elite eight. Mentioned this on a previous podcast, But I

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Speaker 2: think that's Saturday and Sunday it's like, all right, we

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Speaker 2: have to win this game and we can get to

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Speaker 2: that Final four weekend. See teams come out, they play

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Speaker 2: a little slower, they're a little tighter early, and I think

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Speaker 2: that there's like a stress is relieved you at the

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Speaker 2: Final four weekend. It's like, all right, we made it,

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Speaker 2: even though you haven't made the tournament the title game yet.

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Speaker 2: So first half overs historically I think over thirty or

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Speaker 2: period or fifty eight percent in final four games. Whatever

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Speaker 2: it's worth, small sample sizes. You just want to focus

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Speaker 2: on the matchup at hand. So let's start with Florida

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Speaker 2: Atlantic San Diego State. San Diego State two point favorite

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Speaker 2: are over under one thirty two. Have to give credit

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Speaker 2: to San Diego State. I mean we talked about Florida Atlantic.

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Speaker 2: They've been awesome as a dog. They're now top twenty

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Speaker 2: and Ken Palm. I actually would make the Florida Atlantic

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Speaker 2: one and make the most slight small favorite over Miami.

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Speaker 2: They don't really have any weakness this Florida Atlantic team

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Speaker 2: San Diego State. There. You know, if you look historically,

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Speaker 2: there's these teams with you know, outside the top seventy

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Speaker 2: five at adjusted efficiency. If they have an offense or defense,

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Speaker 2: they never win it all. And we have two of

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Speaker 2: them here. It's we'll talk about later the Miami defense

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Speaker 2: and then the San Diego State offense, which I think

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Speaker 2: is the worst you in this game. But they've relied

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Speaker 2: on their defense, which is a lead to get here. Now,

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Speaker 2: I like Floridata plus two. I mean I make this

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Speaker 2: game right around a pick. And look, you got to

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Speaker 2: give San Diego State credit. They beat Alabama and they

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Speaker 2: beat Creyton without much for Matt Bradley. I mean, Matt

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Speaker 2: Bradley has done nothing the past two games, which is scared.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we was three or fourteen against Creyton and

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Speaker 2: Alabama for eight total points. He is a leading scorer,

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Speaker 2: only only guy on the team who everages double figures.

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Speaker 2: But so you have to get a ton of credit

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Speaker 2: for just getting by those games without their best player,

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Speaker 2: but it helped that Alabama Creyton combined for five of

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Speaker 2: forty four from three.

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Speaker 1: Eleven and it's just insane.

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Speaker 2: For the entire tournament, opponents are sixteen of ninety four

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Speaker 2: seventeen percent from three. That's simply unsustainable. I mean it

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Speaker 2: were a small sample size anything sustainable. Now. San Diaego

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Speaker 2: State has held teams to twenty eight percent from three

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Speaker 2: on the season, which is second best in the country

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Speaker 2: only on Tennessee. Guess what, Floridallantic already beat Tennessee and

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Speaker 2: they weren't even hot from three, and Florida's only shooting

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Speaker 2: thirty one percent from three in the tournament. They're a

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Speaker 2: thirty six percent three point shooting team, the best three

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Speaker 2: point shooting team that San Diego State will have faced

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Speaker 2: in the tournament to date. I think the Als have

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Speaker 2: the personnel to score enough points to get this done,

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Speaker 2: and I think San Diego State will go through enough

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Speaker 2: droughts or Flordidlandskin's super close, but what you need against

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Speaker 2: the San Diegos. They give up a ton of threes,

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Speaker 2: but they're elite. They look they're they're an elite at

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Speaker 2: closing out. They have elite length and they have a

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Speaker 2: great game planner, so you can't, you know, so you're

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Speaker 2: gonna get content. You have to make contested shots, and

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Speaker 2: you can't have like just rely on one or two

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Speaker 2: guys because San Diego State's scout is so good that

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Speaker 2: they're not gonna let those one or two shooters beat well.

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Speaker 2: Floridallantic plays four guys most of the time on the floor.

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Speaker 2: You can shoot, they can move the ball, run great action.

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Speaker 2: They obviously have proven that they can deal with the physicality,

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Speaker 2: which is always a question. We were dealing with this

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Speaker 2: San Diego State ball pressure and their elite closeouts in length.

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Speaker 2: So but I think you can't really focus on one

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Speaker 2: or two guys. And this is the team that shoots

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Speaker 2: at three at a top fifty rate nationally and makes

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Speaker 2: it at a top fifty eight nationally. I think they're

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Speaker 2: the real deal. I think Flarida Atlantic is going to

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Speaker 2: win this game. And I think what we talked about

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Speaker 2: all year that that you know, you can't have one

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Speaker 2: main flaw, and I think there's going to just be

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Speaker 2: one or two too many extended San Diego State droughts.

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Speaker 2: It's not going to be easy. But I like FAU

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Speaker 2: and the Owls. We're going back to the well Saturday night.

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Speaker 2: Expect some al gifts from my account. Michael, throw it

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Speaker 2: to you first. Will you be joining me?

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Speaker 1: So for starters, I want to say some nice things

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Speaker 1: about both these teams because they deserve it. But obviously

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Speaker 1: the key here is ken Fau overcome another elite defense.

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Speaker 1: They played eight games again top sixty defenses this year.

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Speaker 1: They went seven and one straight up. Their only loss

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Speaker 1: came against UAB. They won in grinders against North Texas,

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Speaker 1: they were able to crack Tennessee in the second half,

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Speaker 1: and they scored a ton against k State and were

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Speaker 1: able to hold them off there at the end. Five

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Speaker 1: and three to the over in those eight games, so

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Speaker 1: they were able to speed those teams up. With the

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Speaker 1: exception of North Texas, I think that's the real comp here.

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Speaker 1: It's can Brian Dutcher, who spent over three decades as

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Speaker 1: an assistant coach purely as a game planner before he

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Speaker 1: finally became a head coach. So it's his bread and butter,

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Speaker 1: and when you look at their advanced defensive metrics, they're

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Speaker 1: just lighting up the board. Their first and Justed d

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Speaker 1: By bartordk in the last month, so we know what

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Speaker 1: San Diego State brings on that end. It was an

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Speaker 1: interesting point that the guys from the three man we've

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Speaker 1: brought up. Yes, it's ridiculous that they're holding teams to

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent from three, but they were elite the entire

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Speaker 1: season as a perimeter defending team. And one of the

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Speaker 1: elements that helps them accomplish that is they forced teams

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Speaker 1: to go late in the shot clock all the time.

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Speaker 1: You end up with those bailout shots, you end up

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Speaker 1: with the contested shots. So I'm not banking.

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Speaker 2: That's what happens when you're great at the rim, and

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Speaker 2: then you can pressure the ball on the outside, which

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Speaker 2: will help FA. They have multiple ball handlers like he

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Speaker 2: saw with Creighton. It was like that they were struggling

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Speaker 2: to get ano their offense and then all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: you're taking a four shot and contested force late shot.

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Speaker 2: Of course it's going to and then when you have

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Speaker 2: elite length like San Diego State does and they have

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Speaker 2: elite scout, of course teams are going to shoot a

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Speaker 2: poor three point percentage. Now this is a little extreme,

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Speaker 2: but go ahead.

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Speaker 1: Then the Matt Bradley angle for me, like, it's like

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Speaker 1: me and the blackjack table. The dealer keeps getting six.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, eventually he's gonna bust. Eventually something. Matt Bradley

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Speaker 1: is going to play better than I mean, he was

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Speaker 1: the preseason player of the year in then West Conference.

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Speaker 1: He finished the year as a first team All Conference player.

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Speaker 1: He's six for twenty seven in the last three games.

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Speaker 1: And we want to talk about shooting variants. I think

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Speaker 1: it should be on the table on both sides. Him

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Speaker 1: shooting twenty two percent in the last three games. If

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Speaker 1: he can get to twelve fifteen points, I think they're

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Speaker 1: have an opportunity to have just enough offense. But if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't, Trammeill has really stepped up. I mean, he's

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Speaker 1: been the saving grace. It's not a huge shock to

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Speaker 1: me because he carried such an offensive load at Seattle.

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Speaker 1: He was a high volume shooter there. They didn't need

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Speaker 1: him to be that for this entire season. But when

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Speaker 1: you look at what he's done the last three games,

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Speaker 1: fifteen points per game, four to one assisted turnover ratio.

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Speaker 1: And how has fau handled small guards, you know, those

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Speaker 1: guards under five to ten. Well, Noel gave him thirty

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Speaker 1: and Fairley Dickinson's point guard Dmiti Roberts had twenty seven

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Speaker 1: and four against him. So I'm going to see another

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Speaker 1: big game from Trammel here. I think it keeps him

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Speaker 1: in it. I think San Diego State keeps this ridiculous

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Speaker 1: low scoring win streak going. I think they play it

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Speaker 1: at their preferred pace, and I think every time it

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Speaker 1: becomes a coin flip in my mind, I go back

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Speaker 1: to Brian Dutcher fifty eight percent or better against the

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Speaker 1: spread in three scenarios when he has four plus days

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Speaker 1: prep on neutral floor and when he's a favorite since

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Speaker 1: he's taken over at SDSU. I'm going to hitch my

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Speaker 1: wagon too that I'm going to go as techs. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't play it past two and a half, although I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's where the mark gets heeted on this game.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to go with the stext to advance

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Speaker 1: to the title game.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, not only am I against you on

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Speaker 2: the pick of the spread, I'm against you on tremil

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Speaker 2: with I'm going under on his points total. What we

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Speaker 2: are like we ten and a half? We could not

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Speaker 2: be were more opposed in this game. So I'll make

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Speaker 2: my quick case before we get to VJ. He's only

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Speaker 2: cleared that number sixteen to thirty six games, about forty

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Speaker 2: four percent with a median of seven points. From peer

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Speaker 2: numbers perspective, it makes sense I project the closer to nine,

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Speaker 2: as does our I think Nick Iff and our profit

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Speaker 2: teurs at like nine and a half. And it's not

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Speaker 2: like Flordidlla plays at a super fast paced In fact,

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Speaker 2: this is the slowest paced opponent San Diego State will

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Speaker 2: play in the tournament so far. I mean, look, Alabama

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Speaker 2: and Charleston reached inside the top thirty. Flardida Lank's outside

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Speaker 2: the top one. Cooties. You can see another grinder here,

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Speaker 2: which means limited possessions. But and look tremall Is he's in.

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Speaker 2: He's very reliant on the three, in that in the

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Speaker 2: eleven games he's made multiple three pointers, he's averaged fifteen

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Speaker 2: point six points per game. It's only done on eleven times.

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Speaker 2: In the twenty five he had.

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Speaker 1: Less than two.

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Speaker 2: So if he only had made one or no. Three,

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Speaker 2: he's only averaged seven points per game, and he's scored

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Speaker 2: more three more from three than two. On the season,

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Speaker 2: he's only shooting forty percent from two, and he's going

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Speaker 2: up against the Florida Atlantic team that does a good

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Speaker 2: job running you off the three point line, and they're

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Speaker 2: number eleven in the country a two point defense. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, you bring up a good point with the

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Speaker 2: smaller guards, which has me a little hesitant. But I

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Speaker 2: also one of my reasons for vetting this is and

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Speaker 2: because I think fau wins and you think Sande wins,

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Speaker 2: I there's less of a probability in my eyes that

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Speaker 2: all have three points at the free throw line late.

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Speaker 2: But where I do agree with you is I do

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Speaker 2: think Bradley's due for a big game, So the scoring

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Speaker 2: onus on Trebell will be a lot less. That occurs

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Speaker 2: because Bradley hasn't been scoring, which is why Trammel has

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Speaker 2: kind of picked up the load. I mean, he's just

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Speaker 2: been off. He's in a foul trouble one game, and

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Speaker 2: he just didn't have any confidence. If he gets going early,

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Speaker 2: you could see Tremmell be more the facilitator. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I do have a I do have a where we

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Speaker 2: do agree. We don't agree on much in this game,

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Speaker 2: is that I think Bradley's gonna have a big game,

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Speaker 2: which would take some of the scoring load off of

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Speaker 2: Tremul and I do think this will be an outstanding

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Speaker 2: competitive I just I said it right when the creating

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Speaker 2: game started, I said, it's hard for me to see

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Speaker 2: either one of these teams running away from each other

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Speaker 2: from one another. I think that's the same case here.

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Speaker 2: I think we should get a really entertaining competitive first

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Speaker 2: game on Saturday night. BJ, let me throw it to you.

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Speaker 2: You want to break the tie here owls or texts.

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Speaker 4: I actually am leaning more towards the total. I don't

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Speaker 4: really see much value in either side in this game.

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Speaker 4: If I had to take a.

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Speaker 2: Side, don't right, defense, just take you pick a side

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Speaker 2: you need me, don't bet it. You got to break

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Speaker 2: the tie, Okay, I'll take San Diego State.

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Speaker 4: What you know, you guys have obviously you know mentioned

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Speaker 4: how great San Diego State's three point defense has been

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Speaker 4: throughout the tournament. Against Charleston. They only allowed eight or

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Speaker 4: three open three pointers against Furman, who's not a high

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Speaker 4: When they faced Charleston, Alabama, and Creighton, who were three

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Speaker 4: very high volume three point shooting teams, Firman isn't. But

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Speaker 4: you know, obviously, like Michael mentioned, they're going seventeen percent

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Speaker 4: beyond the arc, only one open three point allowed against Furman,

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Speaker 4: only one open three pointer allowed against Alabama, and only

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Speaker 4: two open three pointers allowed against Creighton. They were eighth

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Speaker 4: in the country coming into the tournament in open three

338
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Speaker 4: point right allowed. So, like you guys mentioned, everything is contested.

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Speaker 4: And to your point, Michael about how everything gets late

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Speaker 4: in the shot clock, I mean, there is a stat

341
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Speaker 4: for that on Ken Palm. It's average possession Lenke on defense.

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Speaker 4: San Diego State is top twenty five in terms of

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Speaker 4: making the possession as long as possible on average eighteen

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Speaker 4: point five seconds, So there is something to that. Now,

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Speaker 4: does three point variants catch up with them? Like obviously

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Speaker 4: you know they're not gonna allow seventeen percent for the

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Speaker 4: entire tournament. That's kind of insane to think about. So

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Speaker 4: does Florida Lantic get hot from beyond the arc? Which

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Speaker 4: Florida Atlantic did have a good three point shooting day

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Speaker 4: against Tennessee, they did get by the way.

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Speaker 2: As a listener, and I'm the host right now, I

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Speaker 2: have no idea where you're going if you're going taking

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Speaker 2: this to the over or the under.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, I was going to the under.

355
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Speaker 2: Is how I like it. I like it. You know

356
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Speaker 2: some Injurgue and mystery, how you're going to wrap this

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Speaker 2: into whether I'll.

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Speaker 4: Get to it here, I'll get I'll wrap this up

359
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Speaker 4: here towards the end. But like, are they going to

360
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Speaker 4: get hot or are they you know, you have to

361
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Speaker 4: there's obviously possibilities of what can happen right when you're betting,

362
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Speaker 4: but you always we're trying to bet what the most

363
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Speaker 4: likely thing is going to happen. So facing a Tennessee

364
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Speaker 4: team that was outside the top one fifty and open

365
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Speaker 4: three point rate allowed, they did get five open three pointers.

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Speaker 1: So what my point.

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Speaker 4: Is is Floridatlantic, everything is going to be contested, just

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Speaker 4: like you guys were saying. Now, the flip side of

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Speaker 4: it is Florida Atlantic. They're a very analytical team, just

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Speaker 4: like Alabama. They're eleventh in the country in three point

371
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Speaker 4: and rim rates. San Diego State is for overall of

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Speaker 4: the season pretty average at defending at the rim, so

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Speaker 4: that's where Florida could have an advantage. But Florida Lantic defensively,

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Speaker 4: you know, obviously if you're going to face San Diego State,

375
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Speaker 4: you got to be able to fend mid rage jumpers well,

376
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Speaker 4: Florida Atlantic has seen the thirteenth most mid range jumpers

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Speaker 4: in the season playing in Conference USA, and their top.

378
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Speaker 2: Fifty they played drop. They played drop for run you

379
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Speaker 2: off the line for exactly mid range. And that's so

380
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Speaker 2: they are Stanego State's on, especially Bradley, that's very comfortable.

381
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Speaker 4: So they're absolutely ready for what San Diego State is

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Speaker 4: going to throw at them.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: Then finally wrapping this all up, I think the pace argument,

385
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Speaker 4: I think is a fascinating one because if you look

386
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Speaker 4: at the game against Alabama, I mean, San Diego State

387
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Speaker 4: got sped up obviously because Alabama was one of the

388
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Speaker 4: fastest paced teams. If Florida Atlantic obviously sped up the

389
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Speaker 4: pace against fairly Dickinson and against Kansas State, but Tennessee

390
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 4: slowed them down to a fifty eight possession pace. And

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Speaker 4: San Diego State Creighton, which you know Creyton plays at

392
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 4: a very very similar pace to what Florida Atlantic does.

393
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Speaker 4: I mean, that game was sixty two possessions. So if

394
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Speaker 4: if this game gets slowed down to that type of

395
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Speaker 4: pace that's sixty two to sixty five possession pace, it

396
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Speaker 4: obviously favors San Diego State. And if you're defending the

397
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 4: three point line as well as they have been. I

398
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Speaker 4: think that's going to lead to a very low scoring

399
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Speaker 4: type game, along with how Florida Atlantic is able to

400
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 4: defend from the mid range. So I actually do like

401
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 4: under one hundred and thirty two points. I think that

402
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 4: this game, if it's played at that slow pace, could

403
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 4: see kind of a slog and shooting in a stadium

404
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 4: obviously for the first time.

405
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Speaker 1: You know, there's always that angle.

406
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, well there you have. We have a

407
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 2: case for FAU and this is what we should have

408
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 2: in the final four. I mean, lines are fairly efficient,

409
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 2: and you kind of want to at this point the season.

410
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 2: You're kind of taking a stance on one of these teams.

411
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 2: And BJ likes the unders we have in a little

412
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:44,719
Speaker 2: prop in there. Do you guys have any thoughts on

413
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 2: the player props for this game or are you saving it

414
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Speaker 2: for next Yeah?

415
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 1: I like over seventeen and a half on points, rebounds

416
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 1: and assists for Matt Bradley beyond just.

417
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Speaker 2: We agree, we agree, There we go, Mike, we go, Yeah, I.

418
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Speaker 1: Mean, get them in the mid range. Can two or

419
00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:01,919
Speaker 1: th three of those in the first half, you know,

420
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,120
Speaker 1: start to feel himself. Despite his cold streak, He's gotten

421
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 1: up forty two shots in the last four games, so

422
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 1: he hasn't taken himself out of the game. He is

423
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 1: capable as a rebounder to go in get four or

424
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Speaker 1: five six boards, and he's a capable enough passer to

425
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 1: get three or four assists. So really what I'm looking

426
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Speaker 1: for here, The key number I've circled is he gets

427
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,399
Speaker 1: to twelve points on the floor. I think this flies

428
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: past the seventeen and a half. So I'm going to

429
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 1: go and play him at really the lowest the market

430
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 1: can possibly be on him at this point.

431
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, like that, you're buying low here on Bradley p

432
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,119
Speaker 2: J Any play pops here? Are you saving for the

433
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 2: next game? Yeah, I'll be quick.

434
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 4: Micah Parrish under one and a half three pointers. You

435
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 4: know you mentioned Nick Iffen and Shawn Corner are props extraordinaries.

436
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 4: You know they have Parish projected right at one three pointer.

437
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 4: He went completely ice cold against Creighton, went five from

438
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 4: behind the arc only he played about seventeen minutes. Throughout

439
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 4: the season, he got really, really hot in Mountain West

440
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 4: play was hitting around forty little over forty percent from

441
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,160
Speaker 4: beyond the art, but in non conference play. In the tournament,

442
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 4: he's only hitting about thirty percent from from three point range.

443
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 4: He's gone under one and a half three pointers in

444
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 4: twenty four of his thirty six games, So under one

445
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 4: and a half at minus one forty is I think

446
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 4: is a decent price.

447
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna join you. You comment on

448
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: that Bradley prop which I didn't have my own, so

449
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: I like that. I don't mind that Parish one either, PJ.

450
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: Before we go any further, as a reminder, Big Bets

451
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,520
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452
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,640
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453
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454
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455
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00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,600
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457
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,240
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470
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472
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473
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474
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476
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478
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480
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481
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482
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 3: in New York.

483
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to our second game of

484
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: the night between Miami and Connects. The mid majors battling

485
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: it out first, and then we have the power conference scenes.

486
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: The ACC has left as well as the bigies, and

487
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 2: our podcast teach are still alive in Connecticut. Who is

488
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 2: pretty much even money? I think they're a little like

489
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: favorite minus one fifteen differs a little bit. All we

490
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 2: shop around as always to win it all. So we're

491
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 2: sitting in good shape if anyone followed that future. But

492
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 2: they're five and a half point favorites here over Miami

493
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: total one forty nine and a half set it before.

494
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 2: Yukon has been just on fire. They have blown out

495
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: four teams, all by fifteen plus average margin of victory

496
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: twenty two and a half. We knew they had an

497
00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 2: elite defense. We knew that they had elite length and size.

498
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 2: We knew that they could rebound, and it was just

499
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 2: the offense. Could that that was the missing puzzle piece,

500
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 2: could say, And now the offense is humming. Now they're

501
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 2: shooting what from three for the tournament, which is crazy

502
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 2: when you consider that they've played who Arkansas, Saint Mary's,

503
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 2: Saint Mary's, Iona all like top top top three point

504
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 2: Gunzach is not a good three point defense. But those

505
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: three teams are like top fifty and preventing threes and

506
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 2: guarding the three, and there's they're just too much size

507
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: and then they're moving the ball too well and they're

508
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 2: just so connected right now they're getting open shots and

509
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 2: then when they miss, they can get rebounds like a layups,

510
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 2: they get dunks. I mean, this team is dangerous right now.

511
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 2: Is this the peak of their marketised? The question? On

512
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 2: the flip side, you have this Miami team who look,

513
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 2: they're outside the top one hundred and adjusted defensive officiency,

514
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: which means they're not supposed to be here, but here

515
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 2: they are, and it's because of their electric guard in

516
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: addition to just super efficient play out of Jordan Miller

517
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 2: and North Schadowmere has been amazing. And this is a

518
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 2: team that like they're just defending better overall, and they

519
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 2: were attacking the glass like they were even with Houston

520
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,239
Speaker 2: on the glass, which is insane for this team. They

521
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: were supposed to get crushed there and then they drop

522
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 2: you know they were Remember they were down seven or

523
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: eight to Drake with five to go in the game.

524
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: This could be Drake, by the way, we could have

525
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 2: three mid majors. And then since then Drake melted down

526
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 2: against the press, and since then Dave Miami has dropped

527
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 2: eighty six, eighty eight and eighty nine something like that

528
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 2: against Texas, Houston, and Indiana. And look, even against Texas

529
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 2: they only had they were two of eight from three.

530
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 2: They are just and they shot like sixty something percent.

531
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 2: They are offenses humming right now? Does it matter about

532
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: your defensive deficiencies if you're just gonna drop ninety on

533
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 2: every one? No, the question is can they keep dropping ninety?

534
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 2: I make the line Yukon minus seven. I'm super high

535
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 2: on Yukon. Still have the questions about this Miami defense,

536
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 2: but all who am I to doubt them and shout

537
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 2: that Jim Laynego has now brought this Miami team and

538
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 2: George Mason to the final four Miami including the postseason

539
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 2: is twenty two to ten against the spread on the year,

540
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 2: sixty eight point eight percent covered by more than three

541
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 2: games on average. The only team that has turned a

542
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 2: larger profit for betters this year is Utah Valley. Even

543
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 2: more impressive, they're eighteen and three against the spread eighty

544
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: six percent as either an underdog or favorite of less

545
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 2: than six points. That includes ninety two against the spread

546
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: as an underdog. I mean this team has just been

547
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 2: straight cash as an underdog, and that includes one gamerere

548
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: Omir got hurt in the first minute against Duke, So

549
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: really it's nine and one against the spread. The way

550
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 2: I see this game playing out, I just I don't

551
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 2: see Miami having enough in the post. Omir might get

552
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 2: in foul trouble similar to Timmy, and they're gonna have

553
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: to try to help down low. Yukon's gonna get open shots.

554
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: The Yukon has an elite offense, Miami has an elite offense,

555
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 2: and then Yukon has an elite defense Miami does not.

556
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: Maybe Yukon clear cools off from three, They're gonna get

557
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: open shots. Maybe they can't keep shooting forty three forty

558
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: five percent, Maybe they can on open shots but I

559
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: just see that's the difference, like two offenses that are

560
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 2: clicking on all cylinders right now, like these offenses are firing.

561
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 2: But I trust the Yukon defense more significantly more, which

562
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 2: I think is the difference. But I'm not getting in

563
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: the way of this Miami underdog covering machine to be

564
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: rooting for Yukon for the future. Probably have Yukon money

565
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 2: line in some form or fashion. Maybe pair it with

566
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: a baseball better just bet it straight on the money

567
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 2: line as I've been doing the last couple of games. Mike,

568
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 2: let me throw it to you first. Yukon minus five

569
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: and a half, six ish one forty nine and a half.

570
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: What gives here?

571
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 2: Does does Miami just keep dropping ninety on everyone or

572
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 2: does Yukon continue to steamroll everybody?

573
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 1: I mean, if I can get six, I think I'm

574
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: gonna take the canes. And to be honest with you,

575
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: the way you just laid it out, all these elite

576
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: defenses getting shredded, I kind of think that favors Miami,

577
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: where it's like they know they're not going to come

578
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: in and hold you know, Yukond to sixty eight points

579
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: or something like that. They know the exact game flow

580
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 1: that they need. And then when you look at March

581
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: madness in general, we talk about this preseason, during the season,

582
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: building our brackets. Guard play guard, play guard play. They

583
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 1: got the best backcourt in the final four. I mean, Wong,

584
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,120
Speaker 1: Pack and Miller are all averaging at least four more

585
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: points per game during this tournament than they were pre tournament.

586
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: So Miller's making himself some money, by the way, exactly,

587
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 2: all three of them.

588
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: Files for the at perfect NBA guy exactly. And then

589
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: Omir is doing what we all hoped if he was healthy.

590
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: He's got thirteen boards per game. I agree that he

591
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: needs to stay out of foul trouble and it'll just

592
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: be absolutely curtains for them if a similar we.

593
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: Have no depth and yeah, none whatsoever. And then against

594
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 2: the Yukon size, if he gets in foul trouble, just

595
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: like with Timmy, like deep foul trouble, live that Yukon.

596
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: And just as like a heads up to our audience,

597
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: just because this is the Final four and there's only

598
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: three games left, do not feel any pressure that you

599
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: got to, you know, hit those five ten unit plays

600
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: to like make back. It's just one game, and for

601
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 1: one game, I'm not going to look back and think

602
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 1: to myself, I passed up an opportunity to take Jim

603
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: lay Naga in an underdog spot against Hurley because I don't.

604
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: I don't think all of a sudden Hurley became this

605
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: savant coach. Yes, they made adjustment during the season, and

606
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 1: it certainly made their offense much more difficult to guard.

607
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: Put a lot of players in a position to do

608
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: what they do best. And I respect that on a

609
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: seasonal basis. But Lara Naga, if you go back to

610
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: when he started at Miami in twenty eleven, he's the

611
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 1: sixth most profitable coach as an underdog against the spread

612
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: in high major basketball. So it's not just a flash

613
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: in the pan this year with great numbers that you

614
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: were listing off. He always does this and he's in game,

615
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: you know, coach in terms of adjustments. So I'll go ahead,

616
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: like I said, if I get six, I'm gonna snap

617
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: it up one unit, just one game. But I think

618
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is this is banking on

619
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: another double digit U can win, and even if they

620
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: just shoot thirty five percent from three as opposed to

621
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: forty five percent, maybe Miami can hang around for fifteen rounds.

622
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 2: JA.

623
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I thought the game against Texas was quite interesting

624
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 4: because Omir did get in foul trouble towards the beginning

625
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 4: of the second half round you know, ten to nine

626
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 4: minute mark, and Texas just kept taking you know, fade

627
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 4: away mid range jumpers just over and over and over again,

628
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 4: just had horrible shots selection, and eventually Omeer was able

629
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 4: to play the rest of the game in Miami. Obviously,

630
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 4: may come back and came back and won, but I

631
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 4: think I just really.

632
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: Missed Tsu though, Like if they had him too, it

633
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 2: could have they could have made them right a little

634
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: bit more. But yeah, exactly, But what's well take it

635
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: because Bishop the game before without him, I mean Bishop

636
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 2: went not so yeah, I mean faces with the Canes,

637
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 2: and to to Mike's point, yeah, I mean I'll take

638
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: Larynegah over early from just a pure coaching perspective, but

639
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: ahead be Jeff finished right.

640
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 4: So what I find interesting is this is the first

641
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 4: time in this tournament that Miami is going to face

642
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 4: a high volume three point shooting team. So Drake, Indiana, Houston,

643
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 4: and Texas are all outside the top one fifty in

644
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 4: three point rate. Well, Connecticut's sixty fifth and three point rate.

645
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 4: They're hitting over thirty percent thirty six percent in the season,

646
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 4: over forty one percent. During the tournament, Miami against Indiana

647
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 4: allowed nine open three pointers, against Houston they allowed eleven

648
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 4: open three pointers, and then against Texas and Drake they

649
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 4: only allowed three. But for the season, I mean they're

650
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 4: outside the top one thirty in three point field goal

651
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 4: percentage allowed. They're outside the top one fifty and open

652
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 4: three point rates. So I went back and looked because

653
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, when's the last time they faced

654
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 4: a high volume three point shooting team and how did

655
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 4: it go? Well, if you go back to the ACC Tournament,

656
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 4: wake Forest was without their best three point shooting to

657
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 4: Mari Monsanto, and so going back even further, hit went

658
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 4: over forty one percent from beyond the arc dem in

659
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 4: the regular season. Then when they faced wake Forest again

660
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 4: in the regular season with fifteen of thirty five from

661
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 4: beyond the arc. So if Yukon does something similar like

662
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 4: that and they just keep shooting the lights out from deep, like,

663
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 4: I don't see a scenario where Miami hangs in this.

664
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 4: But again they like they just keep putting up over

665
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 4: eighty points and some of the best defenses in the country,

666
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 4: So I don't really know what to think at this point.

667
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 4: Maybe elite guard play takes over and Miami's able to to.

668
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 1: Win that way again.

669
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: So I think it really just comes down to is

670
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: can Yukon stay hot from three point range? Like if

671
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 4: they have an off shooting night in Miami's guards can

672
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 4: continue to take over. Like, Yeah, Miami and Jim Laernege

673
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 4: is an underdog, I can absolutely see in them winning

674
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 4: this one. So I'm with U stuck where I like Connecticut,

675
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 4: Like I think there's a little bit of value on them,

676
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,959
Speaker 4: but like, like this Miami offense like terrifies me right

677
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 4: now with how efficient they are and Omir being healthy

678
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 4: and being able to neutralize Sonogo on the on the

679
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 4: boards is huge for Miami, you know, because they're obviously

680
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 4: a very average defensive rebounding team overall for the season,

681
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 4: but Omir is one of the more elite rebounders in

682
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 4: the entire country. So him being able to neutralize Sonogo

683
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 4: because obviously Yukon is the second team, the second best

684
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 4: team in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, is going

685
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 4: to be huge for Miami.

686
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: If they're going to hang in this one.

687
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 4: So if Yukon's able to dominate the glass and omergates

688
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 4: in foul trouble like, it's pretty much lights out for Miami.

689
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 4: But if Yukon's not shooting the Paul well in Omeir

690
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 4: stays out of foul trouble like, Miami absolutely can win

691
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 4: this game.

692
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 2: From a player prop perspective, Mike anything here.

693
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: There wasn't anything that jumped out to me. I was

694
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 1: hoping to get some good numbers on the Yukon guards

695
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: to cool off, but I think the market's pretty well calibrated.

696
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: Some keeping my money on the sideline. In terms of

697
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: a prop bete anything for.

698
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 4: You here, Yeah, I'm actually going to go Sonogo under

699
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 4: eight and a half rebounds. You know, I mentioned our

700
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 4: prop extraordinaaries. They have Sonogo projected for six point seven rebounds,

701
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 4: so under eight and a half minus one thirty five

702
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 4: at bet MGM. He's only cleared over eight rebounds in

703
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 4: uh He's going under eight and half rebounds in twenty

704
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 4: four of his thirty seven games. He's actually not like

705
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 4: this elite offensive and defensive reboundaries outside the top one

706
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 4: thirty in both offensive and defensive rebounding Percentagine, like I

707
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 4: just mentioned, he's going against nor Chado Mere, who's you know,

708
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 4: a top thirty five both offensive and defensive rebounding player

709
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 4: in the entire country. So if he stays out of

710
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 4: foul trouble, he'll be able to neutralize what Sunogo actually does.

711
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 4: And if you look out to this tournament, you know,

712
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 4: he got eight rebounds against Saint Mary's in Arkansas, who

713
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 4: are two really really good defensive rebounding teams. And you

714
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 4: know when he played Iona, he got a ton of

715
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 4: rebounds against Gonzago with Timmy out, he got a ton

716
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 4: of rebounds. So when he's actually facing a good defensive

717
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 4: rebounder that can neutralize him, I think that'll keep him

718
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 4: under eight and a half rebounds.

719
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Nigel Pack under fourteen and a

720
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 2: half points. By the way, that's a good look for

721
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,439
Speaker 2: be Jim. I'm going to look into that one as well.

722
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 2: Pack under fourteen and a half. Similar the tremail prop

723
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 2: another smaller guard Uber relying on the three on a

724
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 2: team that I think is going to lose. So what

725
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: does that mean? You know, you don't have three points

726
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 2: at the free throw line late, but just but on

727
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 2: the surface, Pack average thirteen point eight points per game

728
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 2: medium thirteen and a half cleared this sixteen of thirty

729
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: four games, about forty seven percent, So surface wise, it

730
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 2: makes a little sense. It's looks the you know, it's

731
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 2: a tad high, but not by an egregious amount. However,

732
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 2: Number one, this will be one of the best defenses

733
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 2: Miami's faced off season, and I think the length of

734
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: Yukon is just going to give Pack a lot of trouble.

735
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 2: And his scoring is really correlated with his three point shooting.

736
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 2: He's a forty one percent career three point shooter. He's

737
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 2: only made two more field goals from two than he

738
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: has from three this year. In the thirteen games that

739
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 2: he made three or more threes, he's averaged nineteen point

740
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: eight points per game meeting of twenty one, so thirteen

741
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: of his games three or more threes, he's gone off.

742
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: In the ten where he made exactly two, that average

743
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 2: drops to eleven and a half median ten and a half.

744
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,919
Speaker 2: And finally, when he only has made zero or one

745
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: three pointer in the game, the average eight point eight

746
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 2: median nine. So as a result, in the twenty one games,

747
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: that's about sixty two percent of his games that he

748
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 2: made one or two threes zero one or two, I

749
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: should say he only averaged ten points per game with

750
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: a meeting of nine. Well, you know, unlike Houston, he

751
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 2: gives up a ton of threes. Yukhn. I would argue

752
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 2: he could say they have the best three point defense

753
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 2: in the country when you look at how much they

754
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 2: give up and what their percentage allowed is, they're top

755
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: fifteen in both. I think they're twelfth and three point

756
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: a tenth thrade allowed, and then I think thirteenth and

757
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 2: three point percentage allowed you just can't get threes and

758
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: gets them. I think he's really going to struggle with

759
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: their length. They won't have to help inside. So I

760
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: think it's going to be difficult for Pack to find

761
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 2: his open threes, and when he does, it's tough for

762
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: him to go over this number. I think it should

763
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,439
Speaker 2: be closer to like twelve and a half thirteen, which

764
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 2: is where I spoke with our proper Gust too. They're

765
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 2: right around that same area code as well. So I'm

766
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,959
Speaker 2: gonna go with Pack under fourteen and a half point

767
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 2: all right, before we get to our best bets and

768
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: close things out. Let's go with predictions. I'm gonna go

769
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 2: repeat of twenty eleven. I'm gonna say Yukon and a

770
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:19,959
Speaker 2: mid major dance on Monday night, and Yukon wins again

771
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 2: in Houston and beats Florida Atlantic and the Als. Mike,

772
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: I take it. You disagree. You're gonna have San Diego State.

773
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 2: You gonna have San Diego State and FAU for your futures.

774
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 1: I have yeah, futures on both. As I said, the

775
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: hedge opportunities are not so profitable if Yukon advances. But

776
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: I do believe that's how it's gonna play out. I'll

777
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 1: call it sixty four sixty San Diego State over FAU,

778
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: and I think Yukon is gonna be tested. I think

779
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: they're gonna end up winning by three or four points

780
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 1: over Miami and it's gonna be an exhale moment. And

781
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: then they're going to drop the hammer on SDSU on

782
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 1: Monday night and win by fifteen points. So I think

783
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: the Huskies are are going to cut down the nets

784
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 1: as the national jams BIJA.

785
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 4: I say that San Diego State beats FAU fifty eight

786
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 4: to fifty four. Yukon and Miami play a very very

787
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 4: even game up until about the ten minute mark, and

788
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 4: then Yukon just pulls away and then Yukon blows out

789
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 4: San Diego State in the national title game.

790
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 2: All right, well, we agree on the Yukon piece. We

791
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 2: will see what happens in the first game because we

792
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 2: are opposed there. We'll do some giveaways, at least some

793
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 2: five five star reviews. Thanks to those who have you'll

794
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 2: be in the running. Two. We'll do giveaways on our

795
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 2: show for Monday National Championship. It'll be a quick, quick show,

796
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 2: just go over the game, a couple of props we like,

797
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 2: and then we'll do some giveaways. So five star review

798
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 2: just say who you side with me? One on two?

799
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: I need some help here or Mike and kind of

800
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: Jay kind of forced them into it. But appreciate all

801
00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 2: of you listening as always, but we do have to

802
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 2: just give out our best bet. Could be a prop,

803
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,959
Speaker 2: could be you know, a future, could be a side

804
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 2: or a total. I'll start things off. I'm gonna go.

805
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with FAU plus two. Stay to my

806
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 2: case earlier. I think the San Diego State offense it's

807
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 2: the weak unit. I think it's finally gonna catch up

808
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: to them. I think FAU can space them out, spread

809
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 2: the ball, deal with their physicality, and there's gonna be

810
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 2: some looming three point regression that favors FAU and the

811
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 2: Ols on both fronts. Right there. They probably can make

812
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: some more in San Diego State. Their defense is excellent,

813
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: but I don't think they can keep doing this to team.

814
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think there's gonna be a couple too

815
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: many droughts for San Diego State. I know that's not

816
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 2: gonna be your best bet. Mic So where you're gonna

817
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: going with the text, Yeah.

818
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Stex Hail Montezuma gonna go

819
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: an interesting angle here, though, I think it's binary. They

820
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: do not have the offense to keep up if this

821
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: game gets sped up. So I'm gonna take the money line.

822
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the under. I think this under. I

823
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 1: think this total is off by about three or four points.

824
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 1: When you look at games like FAU against North Texas,

825
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be closer from a stylistic

826
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 1: perspective for what we're going to see. At least that's

827
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: what Brian Dutcher wants to get done in this game,

828
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: and then also I'm a little bit fearful of the

829
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 1: venue in terms of the three point shooting overall for

830
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,439
Speaker 1: both teams. So when you parlay the under one thirty

831
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 1: one and a half with the STX money line, it's

832
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: about plus two forty plus two forty five depending on

833
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: your book. So that's going to be my best bet.

834
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 4: Nice b Ja, I'm going to go with that hunder

835
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty to thirty two points in San

836
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 4: Diego State FAU. San Diego State's ability to contest the

837
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 4: three point line is not something that Floridatlantic is going

838
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 4: to has seen so far this tournament. Combined with the

839
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 4: fact that Florida Lantic is very very good defending from

840
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 4: the mid range and from a pace perspective, I don't

841
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 4: think there's anything that suggests that Floridatlantic is going to

842
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,359
Speaker 4: be able to speed up San Diego State to the

843
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 4: pace that they played against Alabama. I think it's to

844
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 4: be played more at the pace they played against Creighton,

845
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,280
Speaker 4: right around sixty two possessions, and if it's right there,

846
00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 4: I believe that's going to lead to a very very

847
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 4: low scoring time and thirty under one hundred and thirty

848
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 4: two for me.

849
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff, gentlemen, Thanks as always to everyone

850
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 2: out there for tuning in, Thanks of course to Mike

851
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 2: and BJ for joining me, Thanks to audio on the

852
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 2: back end, Thanks to our sponsor BETEMGM. And also make

853
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 2: sure you don't know the War Winning Action Network cap.

854
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: You can find no of our bets there. In addition

855
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 2: to an abundance of data and content for today's slate

856
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 2: and beyond for baseball coming up, NHL Playoffs, NBA everything,

857
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 2: make sure you check out the Apple once college basketball ends.

858
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us. We have one final show.

859
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 2: We also have Big Bets on Campus Live on Saturday

860
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 2: morning ten thirty am Eastern, and then we'll be back

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00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:44,320
Speaker 2: with one final show on Monday and a quick final

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00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 2: podcast episode. But it's been a great ride. It's been

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00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,439
Speaker 2: a lot of fun, wild tournament. Let's hope for three

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00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 2: more good games and some winning bets to close out

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00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,280
Speaker 2: the season. It's been a joy doing this once again

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00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: with you guys and the listeners. As all ways, you

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00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 2: guys are what makes the show. Don't forget those five

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00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: star reviews. Subscribe on subscribe to all friend tone Emmy

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00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 2: and we will catch you all over the weekend cheers,

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00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 2: Go Else. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:36,320
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler