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Speaker 1: Hi, guys, welcome into a wild card episode of a

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Speaker 1: podcast in live stream and show I guess love Stream,

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Speaker 1: the show that we've been doing every week. He's Papist Morris.

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Speaker 1: I am Att Paroltz. We were off the last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks. But it's playoff football. There are huge games

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Speaker 1: happening on Saturday, Sunday, Monday. We have futures markets. There's

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Speaker 1: no survivor pools unless somebody wants to get real crazy

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Speaker 1: into a survivor pool conversation. We normally talked about that,

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Speaker 1: but there are bets, picks and plays that we both

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Speaker 1: think you guys can jump on right now. Did I

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Speaker 1: say I'm Att parolt I don't know if I did.

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Speaker 1: How are you guys, Pat, Good to see you. We

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Speaker 1: got a lot to talk about today. How are you

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Speaker 1: on this Tuesday?

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Speaker 2: Doing great? Mad? Happy New Year?

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Speaker 3: And this is going to be a fun year for

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Speaker 3: the NFL playoffs because I can't remember a playoffs so

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Speaker 3: wide open before. Like it seems like there I don't know,

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Speaker 3: seven eight teams seven.

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Speaker 2: That could maybe win it all, maybe more.

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Speaker 3: It's just yeah, there are gonna be some unpredictable rooms

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Speaker 3: results this year.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a fun ride.

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Speaker 1: And there are some big prices on certain teams that

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Speaker 1: we're going to get to here in just one second.

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Speaker 1: Teams that you guys can bet on in bets that

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Speaker 1: we like, will give you our best, our best bets

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Speaker 1: in the futures market. We'll give you at least one

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Speaker 1: bet for every game in the postseason. Got three on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: you got to tell, or two on Saturday, three on

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Speaker 1: Sunday and one on Monday. Remember that Monday night game

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Speaker 1: is happening. So we wrap around the weekend, which I

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Speaker 1: don't know if I love, but sure the NFL wants

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Speaker 1: to dominate every day and they're going to get Saturday, Sunday,

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Speaker 1: Monday now out of the wild card weekend before we

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Speaker 1: head to the divisional round coming up for next week.

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Speaker 1: Before we give you guys the thoughts bets in places

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Speaker 1: the Magic, and the Panthers. It is playoff football. Great

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the futures market here, because

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Speaker 1: this is about value, okay, in about the path for

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Speaker 1: a lot of these teams. Let's start with you, Pat,

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Speaker 1: what's a bet that you like in the futures market?

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Speaker 1: What's a team that you think has value to potentially

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Speaker 1: make it to Santa Clara and potentially hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

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Speaker 3: I like the Jaguars to win the AFC at plus

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Speaker 3: five point fifty, and it's really that I love the

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Speaker 3: price here, Matt on a really good team when all

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Speaker 3: the AFC contenders are flawed and probably more flawed than

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars, who I believe have been the best team

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Speaker 3: in the AFC over the second half of the season.

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Speaker 3: They've won eight straight. Their last loss was a game

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Speaker 3: they flat out blew against the Texans in the fourth

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Speaker 3: quarter way back in early November. Trevor Lawrence has been terrific.

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Speaker 3: Liam Cohen is the best play caller on the AFC

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Speaker 3: side of the bracket. The Jaguars defense has been sneak good.

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Speaker 3: Now the Jags do get a tough first round draw

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Speaker 3: here against the Bills this weekend. Although I do think

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Speaker 3: the Bills are being slightly overvalued here. I mean I

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Speaker 3: just I flat out think the Jaguars are the better team,

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Speaker 3: and I spent two two and a half months underestimating them.

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Speaker 3: Duval has made a believer out of me.

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Speaker 1: I'll ask you, why not go to the Super Bowl?

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Speaker 1: Why just AFC?

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Speaker 3: Because I right now I think the NFC is minus

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Speaker 3: one point fifty to win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Huh. And I agree with that.

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Speaker 3: I think I think the three best teams are in

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Speaker 3: the NFC.

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Speaker 1: I would agree with you. So this is how I

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Speaker 1: do things because I am more of a hedger gardener

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Speaker 1: than I am a gambler. So I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I love the Jaguars draw. If you take the fourteen

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Speaker 1: to one for the Jaguars to win the Super super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: your bet, and that fourteen to one bet. Both have

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Speaker 1: to be in play for them to get to the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. So you cash your fourteen to one, you

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Speaker 1: cast your bet for them to win the AFC equally

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Speaker 1: though at fourteen to one, you would get them into

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Speaker 1: the game, and then you can hedge off the fourteen

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Speaker 1: to one. And because there's no way the Jaguars are

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Speaker 1: going to be a fourteen fourteen to one dog in

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, you're most likely going to have them

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Speaker 1: be somewhere around minus. They might even be favored depending

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Speaker 1: who they're playing. Okay, but I'm with you on the NFC.

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Speaker 1: That's my bet here in a second. But let's just

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Speaker 1: say they wind up playing the Rams. Well, if they're

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Speaker 1: playing the Rams, they're probably going to be a three

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Speaker 1: and a half or four point dog. They're not going

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Speaker 1: to be fourteen to one. So you can take the

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Speaker 1: Rams on the money line knowing you of the fourteen

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Speaker 1: to one, and it doesn't matter who wins the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: You just kick your heels up and you're going to

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Speaker 1: be profitable. So that's where I love the Jaguars because

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Speaker 1: if you break down the AFC bracket as to how

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Speaker 1: this goes, I think Buffalo You're right being totally overvalued.

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Speaker 1: If James Book can't run the football, Buffalo can't win.

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Speaker 1: Like it comes down to that, and they're facing the

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Speaker 1: number one rush defense in the NFL at home in Florida.

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Speaker 1: If this game was in Buffalo, I would be all

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Speaker 1: over the Bills. They're not. They're going to be having

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Speaker 1: to play in Florida. So that as a three seed

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Speaker 1: I like that. Then we go to the next round

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Speaker 1: with Jacksonville. They might be at home. There's a decent

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Speaker 1: shot the Patriots. I think they win the game. I

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Speaker 1: like the Patriots. I'm gonna bet the Patriots. But if

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Speaker 1: everyone wants to run around with all these numbers about

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Speaker 1: the Patriots being fraudulent and the eleven teams that they

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Speaker 1: beat all under five hundred, that they had a historically

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Speaker 1: easy schedule, they come playoff football. Hardball's gonna have something.

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Speaker 1: I think the Patriots win, but Chargers would have to

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Speaker 1: go to Denver after that, and then you would wind

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Speaker 1: up getting a team in Houston or Texas or Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: that I think the jag could win pretty easily. Can

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Speaker 1: they go on the road to be Denver? Yeah? But

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Speaker 1: could Denver lose to Houston? Or Pittsburgh. Yes, like to

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Speaker 1: your point, it's so wide open that I love the

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Speaker 1: Jaguars here on the flip side for my bet. And

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Speaker 1: not every book's going to have this, but it's available

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Speaker 1: in Vegas where you can find the division to win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. If you take the NFC West, you

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Speaker 1: get the three best teams in the NFC, and it's

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Speaker 1: plus one forty on one of the teams the forty

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Speaker 1: nine Ers, the Rams, or the Seahawks to win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl at plus one forty. I wouldn't go overly

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Speaker 1: heavy on it, but I think to your point, Pat,

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Speaker 1: those are the three best teams going into the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: No, yeah, at least two of the three, like Philly

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Speaker 3: versus forty nine Ers is a debate.

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Speaker 2: I think about maybe who's.

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Speaker 3: Third best, but three of the top four I would think,

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Speaker 3: and certainly the two best teams in the playoffs Seattle

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Speaker 3: and the Rams.

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Speaker 2: I don't think there's any question about that.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not a believer of Denver. Like I'm just not.

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Speaker 1: I don't buy bo Nicks, and I don't buy bow

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Speaker 1: Knicks on the road, meaning in Santa Clara. So like,

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Speaker 1: if it's going to be Denver, versus Seattle or Denver

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Speaker 1: versus LA, which I think is very possible. I just

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Speaker 1: really favor the NFC in that situation, even with that defense,

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Speaker 1: and given what you know Sean Payton's history has been

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Speaker 1: that I think is just a gain that I will

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Speaker 1: be on. Whoever the NFC sends, I will be on,

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Speaker 1: and Denver has a very good chance of making it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's tons of value on the Broncos

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots for that matter, to unproven football teams

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Speaker 1: in this situation where the little one in the two seed,

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Speaker 1: you've got to show me something before I put money

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Speaker 1: behind you. And I know what I'm gonna get out

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Speaker 1: of this team. With Seattle, I know their defense, and

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Speaker 1: we know Matthew Stafford and Sean mcvay's track records. So

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Speaker 1: I think there's just more for me. I feel more

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Speaker 1: comfortable putting money behind one of those two teams. And

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Speaker 1: then the forty nine ers with Kyle Shanahan. You can't

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Speaker 1: just sleep on those guys, Okay. I know they're going

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Speaker 1: in they have a hard first game, they're on the road,

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Speaker 1: they're going to Philly. But if they get past the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: which I think is possible. They have a chance to

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Speaker 1: make a run. They got to even with all the injuries.

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Speaker 1: Their offense is playing so well that they got a

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Speaker 1: chance if Robert Salak can create something with this defense

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Speaker 1: to slow down the opposition. Even the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 1: I think have a decent shot of making it after

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Speaker 1: blowing the number one seed and having a chance to

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Speaker 1: play at home throughout the entire playoffs. I'm not counting

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Speaker 1: the Niners out of playing a home game for the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I like your bet.

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Speaker 3: This was one of the bats I was considering for

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Speaker 3: my favorite future bats. Let me play Devil's advocate. Although

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Speaker 3: I do like the bat all right. The only thing

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Speaker 3: I would say about this is if the Seeds hold

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Speaker 3: in the NFC, which is certainly no guarantee. The forty

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Speaker 3: nine Ers are very capable of beating the Eagles and

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Speaker 3: the number two seed the Bears. They're not even favored

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Speaker 3: in their first round, right, so, but if the Seeds hold,

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Speaker 3: then you would get the Rams and Seattle playing in

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Speaker 3: the divisional playoffs. The forty nine Ers would be out,

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Speaker 3: and then you're looking at you know you're gonna have

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Speaker 3: one of the final four teams, but only one and

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Speaker 3: then maybe you don't love you your price as much.

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Speaker 3: But those are a lot of big f's because I

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Speaker 3: don't think this is a weekend where all the seeds

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Speaker 3: are going to hold in either conference.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if I was filling out a bracket,

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Speaker 1: I would go Rams over the Panthers, Niners over the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: Packers over the Bears, and so we'd wind up sending

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Speaker 1: Green Bay to Seattle, and then San Francisco would play

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Speaker 1: on the road against the Rams, which they can win.

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Speaker 1: Look that they can go to LA and they can

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Speaker 1: beat the Rams, and yes, that would be a head

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Speaker 1: to head and they would wind up you know, I

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Speaker 1: would lose one of the two teams there, But only

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Speaker 1: one team from the NFC could make the super Bowl anyway,

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Speaker 1: So Seattle beats the Packers, Seattle's at home, and they're

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Speaker 1: going to face either the Rams or the forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 1: which gives me a guaranteed team to get into the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl. So at very worst, I can hedge out

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Speaker 1: of it if I need to. And so I feel

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Speaker 1: like you've got a decent shot of getting the team.

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Speaker 1: Only one team can make it of a three, so

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Speaker 1: you're getting an NFC West team into the brack into

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Speaker 1: the game, and then you play off of it after that,

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Speaker 1: knowing you got a plus one forty, shop around there

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Speaker 1: may be better prices out there in the market. Vegas

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00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,559
Speaker 1: is plus one forty on that bet. But that I

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Speaker 1: think is if you looking for just something to have

239
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Speaker 1: a ticket on, is there a long shot you like

240
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Speaker 1: to potentially shock the world?

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00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:34,520
Speaker 2: No? Not in futures.

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Speaker 3: Jaguars winning the AFC is about as long as I get.

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Speaker 3: I'm not you know, I'm a Packers fan. I don't

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Speaker 3: think they can run the table. I don't think you know.

245
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Speaker 3: I certainly don't think Pittsburgh can run the table.

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Speaker 2: So there's really not Can I interest you.

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Speaker 1: In a fifty five to one ticket on Pittsburgh? Nope,

248
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Speaker 1: fifty five to one ticket on It'sburg.

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Speaker 3: Do you think that offense could make a multi game run?

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Speaker 1: So here's the question. Okay, Mike Tomlin on Monday Night

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Speaker 1: is unbelievable, Like his numbers are stupid. The Texans under C. J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud have never won a road playoff game. They're zero

253
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Speaker 1: to two. So let's just say Pittsburgh beats Houston because

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Speaker 1: their offense stinks. Now, I think we both know this

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Speaker 1: is a rock fight football game that we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: in a second. But let's just say Pittsburgh wins that game,

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Speaker 1: they're the four seed. If the Patriots and the Jaguars

258
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Speaker 1: both win, New England is hosting against Jacksonville. I think

259
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Speaker 1: the Patriots have a good shot at beating the Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: potentially in New England because of the weather. We'll see

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Speaker 1: what Mother Nature cooks up. But if she throws a

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Speaker 1: nor'easter at the Jaguars and that's a Florida team going

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Speaker 1: up to eighteen nineteen degree temperature game, that's bad news

264
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Speaker 1: for Jacksonville. So then we go Patriots advance. Can the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers go to Denver and beat the Denver Broncos

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Speaker 1: at Mile High?

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Speaker 2: Yes?

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Speaker 1: I agree, I completely agree they can win that game.

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Speaker 1: So then they're going to either Duvaal in Jacksonville or

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Speaker 1: they're going to New England to play the Patriots for

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Speaker 1: the AFC Championship game. There is so much playoff history

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Speaker 1: between the Patriots and the Steelers it's ridiculous. Go back

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Speaker 1: to the first championship run when Tom Brady played and

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Speaker 1: Drew Bledsoe came in in relief because Tom got hurt

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Speaker 1: on their way to the first championship against the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I'm just a weird person when it comes to history

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Speaker 1: and things repeating itself. And it just feels like we

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Speaker 1: could get an AFC Championship game between Pittsburgh and New

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Speaker 1: England and the other side could very well be the Rams.

280
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Speaker 1: And if the Rams make it, it's Patriots Rams rubber

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Speaker 1: match we go again, or the Steelers get in there,

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Speaker 1: and the Steelers have a chance to go to Santa

283
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Speaker 1: Clara with Aaron Rodgers this last hurrah, DK Metcalf, you know,

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Speaker 1: TJ Watting Company. It's fifty five to one. It's not

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00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:56,680
Speaker 1: a crazy bit.

286
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Speaker 3: Yeah, boy, I just I can't see the Steelers generating

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00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,520
Speaker 3: enough offense to win more than two games.

288
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Speaker 2: That's my problem with it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that offense is playing vanilla ice cream served

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00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:14,599
Speaker 3: in a white envelope.

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00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:16,839
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just so dull.

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Speaker 3: DK Metcalf's not fundamentally changing that when he gets back,

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00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:22,880
Speaker 3: he gives them a little more big play potential, but

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Speaker 3: I mean we're not talking a lot of big play potential.

295
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,720
Speaker 3: And like the defense is good, I mean you want

296
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 3: to add peak me and Joe Green and Jack Lambert

297
00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:33,840
Speaker 3: to this defense, and maybe I could see it happening

298
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Speaker 3: they win a bunch of ten to three games, But

299
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,600
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's that good where it could

300
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Speaker 3: carry the Steelers all the way into the AFC Championship game.

301
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Speaker 3: So one or two wins for the Steelers, sure, three

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00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 3: or four, I can't see it.

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Speaker 1: I am very curious. I'm not saying it's gonna hit,

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00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,600
Speaker 1: but I'm just saying, if you want a long shot wager,

305
00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 1: fifty five to one is a bit ridiculous. With Aaron

306
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Speaker 1: Rodgers at the quarterback spot, with Mike Tomlins record, with

307
00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,920
Speaker 1: the Texans being the first opponent, I don't like the

308
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 1: Texans chances. The numbers are really really bad for the

309
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,240
Speaker 1: Texans when it comes to the second half. On top

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00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,480
Speaker 1: of that, the Texans is probably going to be leading

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00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 1: at halftime for that game, and if they are, go

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00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 1: in on the Steelers because the Texans do not play

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Speaker 1: well here, they're red hot. I know a Texans have

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Speaker 1: won nine games in a row, but teams on a

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00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,880
Speaker 1: nine plus game streak entering the playoffs are six and

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00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 1: nineteen against the spread. Since two thousand and two, it

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Speaker 1: hasn't carried over to the postseason when you're red hot

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Speaker 1: in the regular season, you get to the playoffs, things

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Speaker 1: are different and things go differently for a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams in there, guys. You can track all your bets

321
00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 1: and get line alert straight to your phone by downloading

322
00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app with sportsbooks Think, you can automatically

323
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 1: track your bets across all major sportsbooks in one spot.

324
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 1: Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type

325
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,280
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326
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,920
Speaker 1: to find winning trends and profitable opportunities, and new users

327
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,280
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328
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,800
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00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 1: partners sportsbooks. Learn more by going to Bettingpros dot com

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00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 1: slash Premium. Let's go to the games and let's break

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00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,640
Speaker 1: them down as we have a ton of fun football

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00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 1: to get into the game. On Saturday, it starts it

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Speaker 1: with the Rams and the Carolina Panthers. This is not

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Speaker 1: a Texans game. Amazingly enough, this has always been the

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Speaker 1: Texans window the first game on Saturday. Instead, it's the

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Speaker 1: biggest line or tying now the biggest road favorite line

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00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 1: in NFL history. We've seen ten before, We've never seen

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00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 1: ten and a half. DraftKings and FanDuel. At the time

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00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,000
Speaker 1: of taping, they're at ten and a half. My guess

340
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 1: is people are going to come in and take the

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00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 1: Panthers just based on history. But what's your favorite play

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00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 1: on the first game Panthers Rams beat?

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00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:52,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Saints didn't get to ten in that

344
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,000
Speaker 3: famous Beast Quake game when they beat the Seahawks in Seattle.

345
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Speaker 3: I know that was close to ten points of Hey,

346
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 3: we saw that the home dog win that one. But

347
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 3: this is the kind of line you get when you've

348
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 3: got a team that wins the worst division in football

349
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,159
Speaker 3: going up against a team that did not win the

350
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:14,360
Speaker 3: best division in football.

351
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:15,800
Speaker 2: So we've got this huge line.

352
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,239
Speaker 3: And of course people are going to point out that

353
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,680
Speaker 3: the Panthers did beat the Rams thirty one to twenty

354
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 3: eight in Charlotte in Week thirteen. The biggest reason why

355
00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 3: it was a rare sloppy game for Matt Stafford. He

356
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:33,160
Speaker 3: threw two interceptions, lost to fumble. The Rams committed three turnovers,

357
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,360
Speaker 3: the Panthers none. The Panthers played keep away and held

358
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,760
Speaker 3: the Rams to under twenty five minutes of possession time

359
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 3: in that game, and yet the Rams only lost by

360
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 3: three points and outgained the Panthers in that game. Now,

361
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:49,080
Speaker 3: the Rams ranked second in overall DVA. The Panthers rank

362
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 3: twenty fifth in overall DVA, lowest of the playoff teams

363
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 3: by a wide margin. Next lowest are the Chargers at

364
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,679
Speaker 3: seventeenth overall.

365
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 2: And now, the one thing that gives me slight.

366
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 3: In wanting to like the Rams is that the Panthers

367
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 3: are eight to zero against the spread coming off losses

368
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,879
Speaker 3: this season, and they are coming off that loss against

369
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 3: the Buccaneers. Although they covered against the Buccaneers, they were

370
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 3: three point dogs lost by two coming off a loss

371
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 3: in Week seventeen. But Man, Matt, the Panthers have been

372
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 3: outscored by sixty nine points this season their expected win

373
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 3: total with six point five wins. And I think there's

374
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,840
Speaker 3: a case to be made right now, I think Seattle

375
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 3: is number one in everyone's power rankings because the Rams

376
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 3: have flagged a bit here in recent weeks. But I

377
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 3: think there's a case to be made that the Rams

378
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 3: are the most complete and best team in the playoffs.

379
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 3: So as much as I think a lot of people

380
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,439
Speaker 3: are gonna like the Panthers this week, and I know

381
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 3: our buddy Andrew Eriksson does. This is one of those

382
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 3: things where I have a feeling I'm gonna be watching

383
00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,199
Speaker 3: this game and if I didn't bet the Rams, I

384
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 3: would be wondering why I didn't, because I think they're

385
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 3: clearly the better team and I think they're going to

386
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 3: win convincingly.

387
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 2: So I actually I'm I'm gonna lay the points here.

388
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 1: I don't mind the bet at all. It does go

389
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 1: in the face of all the trends, which Erickson's on

390
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: the trend side. I'll give it to him. The Bucks

391
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 1: with Tom Brady back in twenty twenty, they were ten

392
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,919
Speaker 1: point favorites against Washington. They won the game, but they

393
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 1: did not cover. They won thirty one to twenty three.

394
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 1: That was the COVID year. The Saints were laying nine

395
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 1: and a half against the Seahawks. They lost the game outright.

396
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 1: The Steelers back in twenty eleven were laying seven and

397
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,160
Speaker 1: a half on the road to the Broncos, and they

398
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 1: lost the game outright. Since nineteen seventy, teams that were

399
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 1: four point or larger road favorites than the playoffs are

400
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 1: just one in eight against the spread. However, to your point,

401
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: the Panthers have a losing record and they're in the playoffs.

402
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: That has not happened very much. It's happened five teams

403
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:59,399
Speaker 1: since nineteen seventy five times since nineteen seventy the negative

404
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,719
Speaker 1: sixty nine point differential. We're talking about three teams that

405
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 1: have a fifty or more point differential, the twenty ten

406
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 1: Seahawks in twenty eleven Broncos, which were teams that were

407
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 1: very big home dogs who covered. Didn't win, but they covered.

408
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 1: The problem I've got with this is the fact that

409
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 1: the Panthers did not win a game as a favorite

410
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 1: during the regular season. They're the first team in NFL

411
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: history to be in the playoffs that were never They're

412
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 1: never a victorious favorite in an NFL season sixteen games,

413
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: seventeen games, doesn't matter. They were favored in games a

414
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 1: couple of times, they lost them both first team ever

415
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,239
Speaker 1: to get here. They don't belong. This is not a

416
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 1: playoff team. This team is bad. The Buccaneers should be

417
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 1: in this spot. This should be Tampa, even with all

418
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 1: the banged up injuries at the Buck. On paper, the

419
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 1: Bucks are a better team period. So I'm ferociously angry.

420
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lay it because of all the trends,

421
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna bet the over, and I think you're

422
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 1: probably right because I think this is gonna be a blowout.

423
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 1: I think we could see a thirty five point plus

424
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 1: game here from this offense. Davante Adams is coming back.

425
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 1: I think this offense is gonna be pissed off. But

426
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: what happened in the first matchup. I think they score

427
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 1: a ton. I'm gonna bet the over forty six and

428
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: a half. I know people thinking it's a playoff game,

429
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: it's gonna be lower scoring. I like the over forty

430
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 1: six and a half for the Rams and the Panthers.

431
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't hate the over. One thing to keep

432
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: an eye on. There is a forecast for some rain

433
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 3: in Charlotte on Saturday. I don't know if we're getting downpours,

434
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 3: and like as long as it's not downpoards and like

435
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 3: wet ball and terrible field conditions come into play where

436
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 3: the kicking game goes out the window. Like if we

437
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 3: get light rain not a factor. It's supposed to be

438
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 3: like seventy two degrees. I don't think the wind is

439
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 3: gonna be that fair. So I'm kind of with you

440
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 3: on the over here.

441
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: We're gonna bet win that weather. Rain doesn't worry me

442
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 1: as long as the wins aren't gusting. I think you

443
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: have an offense. It's gonna throw the ball all over

444
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:02,360
Speaker 1: the place. The second game on Saturday, Green Bay in Chicago.

445
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: I know where your eyeballs will be on Saturday night

446
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 1: watching this one. Pat, This number is pingponging. So at

447
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 1: the time of tape, depending on the book, the Bears

448
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 1: might be favored, the Packers might be favored maybe plus one.

449
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 1: Green Bay might be plus one or one and a

450
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 1: half for the Bears. This game probably closes at a pick,

451
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 1: so we can just kind of operate off of that,

452
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: because I do think there are different opinions in the

453
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 1: professional market as to who's gonna win this game. Pat,

454
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: Packer fan who wins this game?

455
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 2: Like, I'm not touching either side.

456
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: I think, I mean, I think a Pickham type of

457
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 3: line feels right on this. I think this could be

458
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 3: a coin flip. It does seem like it could be

459
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 3: the most fun game of the first round of the

460
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 3: wild Cared Round, and like there's a chance that this

461
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 3: one comes down to the final possession. Last team with

462
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 3: the ball wins. I think there's a very good chance

463
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 3: that had happen. But Matt, where I want to put

464
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,439
Speaker 3: my money in this game. I was shocked when I

465
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 3: saw the total at forty five and a half. I

466
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 3: thought it was going to be around forty nine or fifty.

467
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,719
Speaker 3: But I think Week eighteen is skewing this when it

468
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: really shouldn't skew anything, at least not for the Packers.

469
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 3: I mean, they play their scrubs in a meaningless Week

470
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 3: eighteen game. It was a preseason game for the Packers

471
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 3: against the Vikings, and they scored three points and got

472
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 3: it on the final play of the game for one

473
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: of the worst covers you're ever going to see. The

474
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 3: Bears offense did have kind of a disjointed performance against

475
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 3: the Lions and only scored sixteen points in a nineteen

476
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: sixteen loss, but the Packers are sixth in offensive DVA.

477
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 3: The Bears are ninth. Packers ranked nineteenth in defensive DVA

478
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 3: and have been worse than that since the Micah Parsons injury.

479
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: They have not been good defensively since Micah went down,

480
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 3: and the Bears are twenty fifth in defensive DVA. We

481
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 3: all saw that game against the forty nine Ers a

482
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. That is the kind of game

483
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 3: I expect to see in this one, with both offenses

484
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 3: flying up and down the field, and whether maybe that's

485
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 3: holding the total down, but I don't think it's going

486
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 3: to be too much of a factor. It'll be chilly

487
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 3: in Chicago, but not frigid. Game time temperature probably around

488
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 3: thirty degrees. There could be some breeze, there could be

489
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 3: a little bit of light snow, but I don't think

490
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: we'll get the sort of weather that could really hold

491
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 3: down scoring. I think this one is going to be

492
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 3: an absolute shootout.

493
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 1: Interesting you would you would say the other way around,

494
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 1: right if in December January. But I'm going with your team.

495
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 1: I'm going with history, I'm going with pedigree. Look, Ben

496
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 1: Johnson has been a great coach, but I need the

497
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 1: Bears to prove it to me. I need to I

498
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: need to see that the Bears can beat Jordan Love,

499
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: that can beat this Packers team, even with the injuries,

500
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: and I know there's a litany of them. Right You've

501
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 1: got the Micah Parsons injury, You've got the issues with

502
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: the running game. As to whether or not they're going

503
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: to be at health, you know, full health. We'll see

504
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: what Jacobs looks like in the game. But I just

505
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: look at this Packers team. I look at the coaching matchup,

506
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: I look at the pedigree, I look at the history,

507
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 1: and until I see it, I can't back the Bears

508
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: in this position. In particular, if I get a point

509
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: like Packers plus one, give me the Packers plus one

510
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 1: give me the idea that Caleb Williams just isn't ready

511
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 1: for this moment and there could be a mistake or two.

512
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: Here we know Ben Johnson hasn't been happy with the offense.

513
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 1: He's like the defense, like the running game, hasn't liked

514
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 1: the passing attack. And I just feel like the Packers,

515
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: they have dominated this series and they find a way

516
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: at the end of the game. I think you're right,

517
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 1: could come down to the end, but I just think

518
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 1: they find a way. Twelve and two straight up over

519
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: the last fourteen meetings. I can't overlook that it's been

520
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: all Packers. I'm going Green Bay and.

521
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 3: It should have been thirteen to one if Romeo Dobbs

522
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: had been able to field an on sidekick. Yeah. The

523
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 3: thing is, like I think you're right. I think the

524
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 3: Packers are the better team, and I think the one

525
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 3: thing that really the Bears have it's sort of upheld them.

526
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 3: The reason they're the NFC North champs is because they

527
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: have a plus twenty two turnover differential in the season,

528
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 3: most in the league by far.

529
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 2: I think next best is plus seventeen.

530
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 3: Packers are plus one. They've been neutral. I think if

531
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 3: you had the Bears at a neutral turnover differential, they

532
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: are probably not in the playoffs at all. So I

533
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 3: do think Green Bay is the better team. But then again,

534
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 3: the Bears are good at taking the ball away, like

535
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 3: there's a degree of luck to that, but they're actually

536
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 3: They've shown like a propensity for doing it. I think

537
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 3: they teach it. You know, Al Harris, their DB's coach,

538
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 3: guy who had a lot of interceptions back in the day.

539
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 3: I think he sort of teaches his defensive backs to ballhawk.

540
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: But man, there were there were Lions receivers running wide

541
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 3: open in the middle of the field in that game

542
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 3: in Week eighteen. If you're backing Bears, that has to

543
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 3: terrify you in this game. So I'm very encouraged that

544
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: you like the Packers.

545
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 2: Matt I'm excited about that.

546
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: For me, I think the over is I want to

547
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 3: go with the over rather than a side in this game.

548
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: I think you're right about that, but I think we're

549
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 1: both right the Packers. If the even goes over, Packers win.

550
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing the Bears win a

551
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: shoot out in that game. So I think if you're right,

552
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 1: I'm right. And then we go to and zero in

553
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: this game. Let's go to the Bills on the road

554
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville. These numbers are unbelievable for Josh Allen. There

555
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: is no Patrick Mahomes, there is no Lamar Jackson, there

556
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 1: is no Joe Burrow. But unfortunately the record is horrific

557
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills on the road. Josh Allen is

558
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 1: oho and four straight up and oh to four against

559
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: the spread on the road in the playoffs. That's tied

560
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: with Matt Hasselbeck for the worst straight up mark since

561
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:54,360
Speaker 1: two thousand in three. Over the last twenty three years,

562
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is historically bad. Overall, the Buffalo Bills have

563
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: lost eight straight games on the road in the playoffs.

564
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: The last time the Bills won a road playoff game,

565
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 1: Pat I was a junior in high school. It's been

566
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: a minute since the last time the Buffalo Bills have

567
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 1: gone on the road. They are facing the number one

568
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 1: rush defense in the NFL and a rejuvenated offense led

569
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 1: by Liam Cohnes, the head coach and Trevor Lawrence the quarterback.

570
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: I don't get the number. I don't get why the

571
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 1: Bills are favored Jaguars money line. Jacksonville wins.

572
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: That is my favorite way to play this too, and

573
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 3: the money line is even money with Jacksonville as a

574
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 3: home dog against the Bills. I get it with the Bills,

575
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: they've been playoff regulars. They've had some fairly deep runs,

576
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 3: but this is probably the weakest incarnation of the Bills

577
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: we've seen since Josh Allen's breakout in twenty twenty. The

578
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 3: Jags are just the better team with this eight game

579
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 3: winning streak and how well they've played over the back

580
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 3: half of the season, whereas the Bills. Their passing game

581
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: looks absolutely ragged these days, and they just have no playmakers.

582
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,479
Speaker 2: For Josh Allen in the passing game. I mean Khalil Shakira.

583
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 3: A solid possession slot receiver. He's their best player, their

584
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 3: best pass catcher, which is not real encouraging. Their run

585
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 3: defense is just flat out bad. And can the Bills

586
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 3: live on their running game going against one of the

587
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 3: best run defenses in the NFL, if not the best,

588
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 3: I don't think they can. I'm with you, I mean,

589
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 3: I just I don't see why the Bills are favored

590
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 3: in this game.

591
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is the only team in the NFL that did

592
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: not allow a rusher to go for more than seventy

593
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: five yards. If James Cook can't get to seventy five yards,

594
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: the Bills can't move the ball. The passing attack is

595
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: not good enough. Josh Allen can put his cape on

596
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: and try to do everything himself. Not going to be

597
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,959
Speaker 1: enough against this defense on the road. And look, I

598
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: know people make fun of Jacksonville's home field advantage all

599
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: the time, but it's their building. They're at home, they're

600
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 1: very comfortable playing at home, and they've been very good

601
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: at home, and they're scoring a ton. They have covered

602
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: eight straight games. They've scored twenty three or more points

603
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: during that streak. Like this offense is alive. They are

604
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: difficult to face, tough to spot, and you could say, well,

605
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: mat the schedule has been very advantageous for Jacksonville. They've

606
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: played the Titans, the Colts, the Broncos, Jets, the Colts,

607
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,479
Speaker 1: the Titans, the Cardinals coming down the stretch. That's not

608
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: an amazing group of defenses. Broncos are good by but

609
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: they scored thirty four points on the road at Denver.

610
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: That proved to me they are for real. Like they

611
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: can go on the road to Denver and I know

612
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: the weather was perfect, but I don't care. They went

613
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: in there and they blew out the Broncos. I don't

614
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: get the number. Give me Jags money line to win

615
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: and send Buffalo home, and a lot of questions around

616
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: Josh Allen if that happens, you and I are in

617
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: agreement with Buffalo Jacksonville, where not for San Francisco and Philadelphia.

618
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: This number now is four and a half for the Eagles,

619
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 1: opened up at three and a half. Total, set at

620
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: forty four and a half or forty five for this game.

621
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: Who do you like? Because I like the other side.

622
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have a slight lean towards the Eagles,

623
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 3: and it's my concerns about the forty nine Ers defense

624
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: Matt In their last four games, the Niners gave up

625
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 3: twenty four points to the Titans, they gave up twenty

626
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 3: seven points to Philip Rivers and the Chargers. They give

627
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 3: up thirty eight points to the Bears, and last week

628
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: only gave up thirteen points to the Seahawks. But I

629
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: think we know that Seattle left points on the table

630
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 3: in that game. And as disjointed as the Eagles offense

631
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 3: has been at times this season, I don't think they're

632
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: going to have trouble moving the ball and putting up

633
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 3: points against the forty nine Ers. With the playmakers they

634
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 3: have Hurtz, Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVante Smith, and I don't

635
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 3: think the Eagles can completely shut down the forty nine Ers.

636
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: So I actually I think I like the over forty

637
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 3: four and a half points here more than I like

638
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 3: the Eagles side. But what it comes down to, well,

639
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 3: another point on that over. Forty nine Ers ranked second

640
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 3: in offensive DVA, they ranked twenty seventh in defensive DVA.

641
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: They're the over team here. That's why I like the over.

642
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: I think it's a good bet. Yeah, it's a good

643
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: bet overs eleven and five this year with Alan ck

644
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: as the referee. So if you want handicap Zebra's eleven

645
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: and fives eleven and five. That's the second best mark

646
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,239
Speaker 1: of any referee in the NFL to the over. So

647
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 1: you're going to get this crew will throw flags for

648
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: pass interference. They will throw you know, fifteen yard personal

649
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: foul calls like roughing the passer, calls like this team does,

650
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 1: let big calls and have big points being abled. So

651
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: eleven and fives, eleven and five.

652
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, So and now there could be rained for this

653
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: game too. We could get kind of a wet wild

654
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 3: card weekend. But again, anything short of torrential and I

655
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 3: don't think you and I are too worried about the

656
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 3: effect on scoring there. So now like it's a very

657
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 3: slight lean towards the Eagles for me because I just

658
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 3: don't think much of the forty nine ers defense.

659
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 2: Sell me on the forty nine Ers though.

660
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: Matt, I like the number four and a half. Okay,

661
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a tight football game.

662
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: I know. Jalen Hurts is five and zero straight up

663
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: at home in the playoffs, He's four and one ats.

664
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: He's won most of these games by blowouts. Hurts as

665
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: a favorite at home is thirty one and five in

666
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 1: his career. He's been tremendous. He's thirteen and one straight

667
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: up in December or later. But brock Perty's oh to

668
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: four ats in the postseason no QB dating back for

669
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: the last twenty five years has been oh to five.

670
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: Like there's a lot of pressure on brock Party in

671
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: company to keep this game close, and I just think

672
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: there's a chance for this offense to move the football

673
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:44,959
Speaker 1: and to have it be if we're going with the

674
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: over the Eagles. Look, I'd like the Eagles better to

675
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 1: cover an undergame than I do an over game. If

676
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: they're going to cover the four and a half and

677
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 1: win the game by six seven points, I think that's

678
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: far more likely with it being like a twenty one

679
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: to ten type of game, then it is going into

680
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: the twenty eight to twenty four type of matchup, which

681
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 1: is what I do think this game's gonna be. So

682
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,919
Speaker 1: I do like your bet. I do like the over,

683
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: but I also like the points at four and a

684
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: half for the forty nine ers, And there could be

685
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: a backdoor cover that comes into play here with this.

686
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: But I feel like people are gonna come in and

687
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 1: bet the Eagles because of the defense, and I just

688
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: think that you've got to be careful with this because

689
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people already who are loading up

690
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,399
Speaker 1: on Philadelphia. I don't mind Eagles money line. I think

691
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: that if I was gonna bet you a money line play,

692
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: the Eagles definitely would be the side. It's just too

693
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: expensive for me to come in and bet the Eagles

694
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 1: on the money line. Great money line parlay piece for Philadelphia,

695
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: But I think this offense is going to click. I

696
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: think Kyle Shanahan is going to have opportunities here to score.

697
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: And I just don't really love what's going on this

698
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 1: year in Philadelphia, like they've just been so inconsistent. I

699
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: can't back them. I like Kyle Shanahan, I like the

700
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: offense for the Eagles. Sorry for the forty nine Ers

701
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 1: against this Eagles defense to keep the game close, Philly

702
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 1: wins Niners cover.

703
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: Let me ask you one thing about this game.

704
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 3: If we so we haven't gotten any injury news as

705
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 3: of this recording, no practice reports yet. If you were

706
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 3: to see that Trent Williams were out for the forty

707
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:15,919
Speaker 3: nine ers, would you still be interested in betting them.

708
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: I'd want to see where the line goes, and so

709
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 1: that's why I haven't bet this because I do want

710
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: to check out the injury report for both. Im look,

711
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: I want to see what Kittle looks like. I want

712
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: to see what CMC looks like. I mean, this has

713
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 1: been an injury riddled season. They just lost another linebacker

714
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 1: off that defense for the season, so I mean, this

715
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: is the guy who's coming into replace Fred Warner. He's

716
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: now out for the year. So it's just been this

717
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: Robert Sala, you know, with masking tape holding this defense

718
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: together with a bunch of players that you wouldn't expect

719
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 1: playing big games in big snaps. So I want to

720
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 1: see the whole injury report. So yes, but I also

721
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: want to see what the market response because it's hard

722
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: to handicap. You know, how many points is a left

723
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 1: tackle worth half a point one point? So you have

724
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: the whole week, they'll know who's gonna play. I think

725
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 1: he probably plays. How effective he is will be obviously,

726
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 1: we'll see can he actually block anybody if he's even

727
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 1: out there playing for the forty nine ers. We go

728
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: to the late game and it's the Patriots at home

729
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: for a playoff game for the first time in forever,

730
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 1: hosting the Chargers. The weather is a gigantic break for La.

731
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: It looks like it's going to be about forty degrees

732
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: at kickoff in Foxborough, so nothing brutal for a Charger

733
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: team that is now catching three and a half points

734
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: from New England. This is where I think the Patriots

735
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: finally get to put people and shut people up here.

736
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 1: Their offense has been clicking so well. This Chargers offensive line.

737
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: I think you've got to bet this now because I

738
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 1: really do believe the professional money is going to come

739
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 1: pouring in on the Patriots later in the week when

740
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: the limits open up. I think this is going to

741
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: be the professional side. The public's going to be afraid

742
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: of the hook and go, oh, it's three and a half.

743
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: This has been a great year for the Chargers, but

744
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: pat they're so bad. Justin Herbert is banged up. Their

745
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 1: offensive line is so banged up. They've had like thirty

746
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: different combinations of offensive linemen. The Patriots are getting Milton

747
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: Williams back, They're gonna have Robert Splaine back, like, They've

748
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 1: just got a lot of players, and they've got this

749
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 1: home crowd that's going to be at full throat the

750
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: entire game because they haven't seen this in quite a while.

751
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 1: I like the Patriots laying the points.

752
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, and with Milton Williams and Roberts Blaine coming back,

753
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 3: I mean, that's been if the Patriots have had an

754
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 3: achilles heel in recent weeks, it's been that you could

755
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 3: run on them because of those guys being hurt. Those

756
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 3: two guys are the lynch pin of their run defense.

757
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 3: And with those guys back, their run defense is a

758
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 3: different animal, one of the toughest in the league early

759
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 3: in the season. So plus you said it, man, I mean,

760
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 3: the offensive line has been so problematic for the charters,

761
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 3: Like they can't protect Justin Herbert, they can't consistently open

762
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 3: holes in the running game.

763
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 2: It just limits them so much.

764
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 3: And I know the other thing, I mean, you know

765
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 3: people are gonna latch into the fact that the Patriots

766
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 3: have only had one win against a team with a

767
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 3: winning record this season and.

768
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: One playoff team the Bills.

769
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, one playoff team, whereas the Giants have beaten two

770
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 3: the New York Giants. But like that, that's a fun

771
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 3: stat to bring out at parties. The Patriots can only

772
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 3: play the teams that are in front of them. They

773
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 3: don't have a it's not their fault. They were handed

774
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 3: the easiest schedule in the league, and they've done what

775
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 3: they were.

776
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 2: Supposed to do.

777
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 3: They've beaten these losing teams. I just think they are

778
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,959
Speaker 3: a fundamentally less flawed team than the Chargers, who has

779
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 3: this major Achilles heal with the offensive line. So I

780
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 3: don't love the Patriots, but I do like the Patriots.

781
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 3: I don't love that hook. I would much rather get

782
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 3: them at minus three than minus three and a half.

783
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 3: We've talked about this, so you know, I'll wait as

784
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 3: long as I can before playing this game.

785
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 2: But I'm with you and liking the paths.

786
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 1: I would be careful with waiting too long, though, because

787
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: this is not going to go down.

788
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: You think it's gonna go.

789
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 1: Up, This is going on up. This is not going down.

790
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: This is not We're not gonna see Charger money come

791
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,399
Speaker 1: in to drive this thing to three. You're gonna see

792
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: Patriot money to drive this thing to four or four

793
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: and a half at kickoff. And I think again, I

794
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 1: think when the limits open up, I think this is

795
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: gonna be one of the more professional versus public type games.

796
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 1: I think the public is gonna be hearing all about

797
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: this Patriot team and the fact that they have not

798
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 1: beaten anybody beside the Bills, and that they are fraudulent

799
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 1: or paper tigers. That the Chargers in Harbaugh, this is

800
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 1: what he lives for. And YadA, YadA, YadA. I'm not

801
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: always gonna hammer my team and say, Okay, I'm a

802
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: Patriot fan, so I'm biased, I am. But you look

803
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,760
Speaker 1: at the Patriots at home in this type of matchup,

804
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: and this is a bad matchup for the Chargers going

805
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 1: out west in a primetime setting, Saturday Sunday night football,

806
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,280
Speaker 1: and a chance for Drake May to once again remind

807
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: everybody about what he has done. Historic numbers throwing the

808
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 1: football for the Patriots, and their offense is relatively healthy.

809
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 1: They're getting Will Campbell back, They're starting left tackle. Today's birthday.

810
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: He's a guy who him and Drake May are best friends.

811
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 1: Second year player, rookie player, They're both from the South.

812
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: They have really helped to start this rebuild and kickstart

813
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 1: the rebuild for the Patriots. There's a chemistry between those

814
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: guys and the Patriots at full strength. This is a

815
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: bad situation against a team and the Chargers without Joe

816
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: Alt that's a different football team like the numbers just

817
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: are not there for Herbert and company when it comes

818
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 1: to their offensive line. So I just think this is

819
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 1: a bad matchup for the Chargers in this game. What

820
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 1: does this mean going forward into the divisional round? Okay, fine,

821
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 1: tell me the Patriots get smoked and they're gonna get

822
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,720
Speaker 1: blown out by Jacksonville or somebody else. I could listen

823
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 1: to that this week, lay the points, Patriots win and

824
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 1: take care of business up against the Chargers. Guys. One

825
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 1: more reminder that you can score six months of Betting

826
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: Pros Premium for free. Make a deposit and place a

827
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,760
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828
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,200
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829
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: sheet in the same game, parlay Builder, all tools you

830
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: need to bet smarter. Claim your upgrade now at bettingpros

831
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: dot com slash Premium in the final game is on

832
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: Monday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, catching three or

833
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 1: three and a half points to Houston. I cannot believe

834
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:20,320
Speaker 1: we're getting a Mike Tomlin coached football team on Monday

835
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 1: night as a three and a half point dog here

836
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: to a team that is zero and two with CJ.

837
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 1: Stroud straight up on the road in the playoffs, Pat,

838
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 1: how are we not taking Pittsburgh in the under in

839
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:34,760
Speaker 1: this game?

840
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 3: You don't have to sell me very hard on the

841
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 3: under here. I mean, this game is gonna be an

842
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 3: absolute rock fight. Like I have a I was texting

843
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 3: with a couple of friends about this game, and one

844
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 3: of them said, if I gave you a total of

845
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: ten points for the Pittsburgh offense, not coming any special teams.

846
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 2: Or defensive scores, which way are you betting?

847
00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 3: And everyone agreed under Like, I just have a hard

848
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 3: time envisioning how Pittsburgh scores more than ten against the

849
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 3: Houston defense, which is probably the best in the NFL.

850
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 3: I don't know that the return of dk Metcalf from

851
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 3: suspension is going to help. And Aaron Rodgers is probably

852
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 3: going to be under durest from Will Anderson and Daniel

853
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 3: Hunter all game. And Rogers has kind of shown this

854
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 3: season he doesn't really want to stand in the pocket

855
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 3: and wait for his receivers to break open downfield. And

856
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 3: I don't know how well Houston is going to be

857
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 3: able to move the ball against a Pittsburgh defense that

858
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 3: really shut down the Ravens running game on Sunday nights,

859
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 3: the Steelers can be a little leaky in the back end,

860
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 3: and that would be my concern about taking the Steelers

861
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: and the points here, like we saw Sunday night against

862
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 3: the Ravens with those big plays they gave up to

863
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 3: say Flowers to Isaiah Likely down the stretch. And the

864
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 3: Texans at least have some playmakers with Nicocollins and underrated

865
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,959
Speaker 3: rookie Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz. So I'm not real

866
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 3: like I can't take either side here, even though it

867
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: seems like the Steelers getting points with Mike Tomlin in

868
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 3: a playoff game at home should be an auto bat,

869
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 3: I'm not feeling great about it.

870
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 2: I am feeling great about the under in this game.

871
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 1: Twenty three an oh. That is the record for the

872
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night football since nineteen ninety two.

873
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 1: They have never lost a Monday night football game at

874
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 1: home in Pittsburgh. And you're gonna tell me the Houston

875
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: Texans of the team to go in there and do it.

876
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 3: Nah, the Texans are out of their usual comfort zone

877
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: in that early Saturday slot, like that's where they are

878
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,240
Speaker 3: every year. Now they're they're going in on a Monday Yeah,

879
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 3: twenty three, and now that's crazy.

880
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has been on Monday night at home fourteen times.

881
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 1: He's twelve and two straight up in those games. It's

882
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: not just Aaron Rodgers, it's Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin is

883
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 1: a guy that you on Monday Night. He's twelve and

884
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 1: one straight up at home. He's seven and six against

885
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 1: the spread. To can say, okay, we'll see what they're

886
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 1: but straight up, they're three and a half point home dogs.

887
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: I mean, you just don't see this very often where

888
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 1: you have a home dog situation. And the Steelers haven't

889
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:20,240
Speaker 1: won or covered a playoff game since twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen.

890
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 1: That is six games straight up and six games against

891
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: the spread. That's the longest Enfranchise history. And you might

892
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: make the case that Mike Tomlin is coaching for his

893
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: job here with this. If they win this game, Mike

894
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: Tomlin's probably back next year. If they lose this game,

895
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 1: he could be gone and they may be looking for

896
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: a new coach in Pittsburgh, which is somewhat crazy. So

897
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 1: you have his back against the wall, you're gonna get

898
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 1: peak Mike Tomlin. I just don't know how you don't

899
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: back this. I mean Tomlin is seven and two ats

900
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: over the last nine or over the last nine games

901
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: refereed by Craig. I think it's wolfstred Stead, you say

902
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 1: it roll instead. Rogers is five and one straight up

903
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: with with with Craig as the referee. In twenty nineteen,

904
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers with this refereeing crew is eight and two

905
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 1: to the over. That would be the one kind of

906
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: like hook on the game that maybe we might But

907
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 1: I think this is the under. Is the play Steelers

908
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: money line in the under? I I you know, give

909
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 1: me renegade. Let's go Pittsburgh getting a w here against

910
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 1: Houston on Monday night. I'm a trend better you tell

911
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: me twenty three and oh and Mike Tomlin is a

912
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: dog at home. Give me Pittsburgh. You want to be safe,

913
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 1: take the three and a half, but you want to

914
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: be sprinkling on that money line would be the smart play.

915
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 3: Every trend right down to the referee trends they're going

916
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 3: in the Steelers direction.

917
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 1: Wow, and it's Houston. I mean it's a it's a

918
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: franchise that just can't get out of their own damn way.

919
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,280
Speaker 1: Like this is just so typical Houston like they again

920
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: And if you want to talk about the first half,

921
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: Demiko Ryans has been ridiculous in the first half. So

922
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 1: like covering the first half numbers thirty six and nineteen

923
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 1: in the first half against the spread for Dmiko ryan Like,

924
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 1: he just is absolute. So if the numbers one and

925
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: a half or two, Houston leading by three in the

926
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 1: first half at halftime, very possible. That's the way to

927
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 1: play this. If you like Houston, bet the first half.

928
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 1: If you like Pittsburgh, bet the game. Fourth quarter could

929
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 1: be a difficult road here for the Houston team. And

930
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 1: we'll see about weather too. By the way, we'll see

931
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:22,439
Speaker 1: what Pittsburgh looks like come Monday. I know the weather

932
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: systems for Saturday are fine, but come Monday, it's Pittsburgh

933
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 1: in December or January. It's it's gonna be cold. It's

934
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 1: not gonna be great for an indoor dome team from

935
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:38,720
Speaker 1: Texas coming up north to face a reinvigorated Steelers fan base.

936
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 1: Like they believe they got that Monday night. They wanted

937
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 1: that Monday night situation. Pittsburgh may have even lobbied for it.

938
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: They wanted that Monday night game and they got it.

939
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: DK metcalf back. Gonna be a lot of fun.

940
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 2: They just gotta sprinkle some more holy water on the field, seriously.

941
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: Right, unbelieva that they get the priests back and do

942
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 1: the same thing how they get in. Sometimes when you

943
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: get lucky, you make a run again. Fifty five to one.

944
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 1: We talked about it in the open, just saying fifty

945
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: five to one is fifty five to one for the Steelers. Here,

946
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: they win one game, you can start hedging off of that.

947
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 1: It's fifty five to one. It's ridiculous how much wiggle

948
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 1: room you have taking the Pittsburgh Steelers. All right, Pat,

949
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 1: any thoughts in closing about wild card weekend?

950
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 3: The only team that would shock me if they won

951
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 3: would be the Carolina Panthers.

952
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 1: Yes, of course, it's.

953
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 2: The only one so I think. And that's the first game.

954
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 3: The other five could go either way, and then you

955
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 3: know you've got the two quarterbacks setting home on buys

956
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 3: are Bonnix and Sam Darnold. It is going to be

957
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 3: a wide open playoff.

958
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 2: Season. I can't wait for this. This is going to

959
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 2: be a lot of fun.

960
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 1: So in closing, the field really is nuts. Only one

961
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:57,399
Speaker 1: preseason division favorite made the playoffs, the Eagles, the rest

962
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: of them are all gone. It's a really crazy when

963
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 1: you take a look at the teams that we're supposed

964
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 1: to be here. Just this is a very very different bracket.

965
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 1: The top seeds in the wild card rounds Panthers, Bears, Jaguars, Eagles, Patriots,

966
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 1: Steelers are combined plus six in all six games against

967
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 1: the spread. They've covered it by a point. That's a

968
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 1: huge tip of the cap to dogs potentially having a

969
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 1: chance to come in here and the Panthers being under

970
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 1: five hundred. They got into the playoffs at ten and

971
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 1: a half or higher, they would be the biggest home

972
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 1: dog in playoff history. If this thing closes at ten

973
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 1: and a half. To your point, if the Panthers somehow

974
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: knock out the Rams, we're talking about a historic victory

975
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,279
Speaker 1: for the Carolina Panthers if they repeat history and go

976
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: two to zero this year straight up against the La Rams.

977
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 1: He's bat fist Morris. I'm Att Perealt. We'll be back

978
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 1: next week. We'll break it down for the divisional rounds

979
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 1: every week. We're back every Tuesday. Make sure you hit

980
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: the like button in the subscribe button to the betting

981
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channels so you don't ever miss this throughout

982
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 1: the playoff, as the march to Santa Clara has begun.

983
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

984
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:08,120
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985
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:11,520
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986
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,440
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987
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:18,200
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988
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,760
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