Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the
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Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.
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Speaker 1: also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
Speaker 1: by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, we've been giving you
Speaker 1: some updates about the virus. Clearly it is of concern
Speaker 1: to investors, it's of concern to the people who run
Speaker 1: colleges and companies and all of us just as human beings.
Speaker 1: So let's check in get the latest with Dr Shelley Hearn,
Speaker 1: director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health Advocacy,
Speaker 1: part of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Speaker 1: Of course, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg schoo Public Health that's
Speaker 1: supported by Mike Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg Philanthropies and founder
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg LP, the owner of this radio station. She
Speaker 1: turns on the phone from Charleston, South Carolina. I love
Speaker 1: Charles Charleston, South Carolina. So I'm going to start there.
Speaker 1: Dr Herne, tell us what life is like down there,
Speaker 1: because anytime we're talking to somebody outside of our little bubble,
Speaker 1: as it were, we want to know what's going on. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, we all have our bubbles all around the world,
Speaker 1: but Charleston, you know, you can always count on good
Speaker 1: food and lovely people. So it's it's it's not a
Speaker 1: bad bubble. It's not a bad bubble. But let's talk
Speaker 1: about it. I have some family down in South Carolina,
Speaker 1: just outside Charleston, and I know the numbers have been
Speaker 1: tough in terms of the virus. Well, the number of
Speaker 1: South Carolina is still struggling. Um is you are tracking
Speaker 1: around the country, we are seeing different surges, different uh
Speaker 1: improvements in places, and it really kind of boils down
Speaker 1: to how seriously people are taking public health measures. And unfortunately,
Speaker 1: just like variations in food from the south to the north,
Speaker 1: we're also seeing variations in the acceptance of mask wearing,
Speaker 1: the care with social distancing. And so that's what's going
Speaker 1: to keep this virus alive and well around the country
Speaker 1: is if we get complacent, uh and put our guard down,
Speaker 1: it will return. Well, you know, can I just to follow?
Speaker 1: I mean you are so involved in time in terms
Speaker 1: of you know, understanding health and cities and communities. You know,
Speaker 1: Jason and I k that there's you know, one thing,
Speaker 1: you know, wear a mask. That's one thing we still
Speaker 1: repeat over and over. But there's also that idea of
Speaker 1: you know, taking care of your community. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is largely what this virus is about. That's why you
Speaker 1: wear a mask, it is. I mean, you know, we're
Speaker 1: hoping for vaccines, we're looking for other kinds of therapeutics,
Speaker 1: but the real important element is even if those come
Speaker 1: on board, the absolute best thing we can do for
Speaker 1: our families and for our neighbors and our entire kind
Speaker 1: of economics thrive ability is to really practice these basics
Speaker 1: in public health. It may not be sexy, but that's
Speaker 1: actually what's going to make the biggest, biggest difference. And
Speaker 1: if we all did this together, uh, and did it
Speaker 1: you know universally, we could probably really dampen this down,
Speaker 1: get ready for a tough winter, and do much better.
Speaker 1: I worried so much about our economy that if we
Speaker 1: if we focus in on just stemming and suppressing this
Speaker 1: virus by community measures, it's what's really going to help
Speaker 1: open up our our ability for strong, healthy commerce down
Speaker 1: the road. So Dr Hearn talked to us about the
Speaker 1: public health system, because you know, Carol and I have
Speaker 1: talked on this program a lot about this notion that
Speaker 1: the virus has served to accelerate so many things, for
Speaker 1: good and bad. It is forced us to deal with
Speaker 1: some things that maybe we didn't want to deal with
Speaker 1: and and now we have to. And especially when you
Speaker 1: pair it with what we've seen in terms of a
Speaker 1: real reckoning around systemic racism and some of the deep,
Speaker 1: deep inequality, some of the great chasms that we've seen,
Speaker 1: And having spent a lot of time in South Carolina,
Speaker 1: having grown up in the South, I know that a
Speaker 1: lot of that is so apparent there um in your
Speaker 1: state and even uh in Charleston. What do we need
Speaker 1: to do at this moment where we do have something
Speaker 1: of an opportunity to start to close that gap when
Speaker 1: it comes to public health. Well, it's a it's a
Speaker 1: brilliant question. Is the the exact one that we need
Speaker 1: to focus on. So just like uh, you know, a
Speaker 1: healthy company needs good roads, it needs good education system
Speaker 1: so that the workforce is ready and prepared for the job,
Speaker 1: we actually need to have that same kind of capacity
Speaker 1: in our public health system. These are and and the
Speaker 1: good thing of the pandemic is bringing alive. You need
Speaker 1: to have epidemiologists, you need to have labs. This is
Speaker 1: every day. It's not just when when a virus is spreading.
Speaker 1: But we use those tools all the time to keep
Speaker 1: us healthy and well and actually striving in terms of
Speaker 1: wellness and long longevity and life. And that comes down
Speaker 1: to a public health system that can do that disease tracking, laboratories,
Speaker 1: the strong staff. And we've actually been cutting those very
Speaker 1: core foundations in the last ten years. This isn't something new.
Speaker 1: It's been an equal opportunity to neglect over the last
Speaker 1: few years. And Jason, just to your point, we never
Speaker 1: modernized this back you know, from really fifty years ago.
Speaker 1: And if we're going to throw a bunch of money,
Speaker 1: which we absolutely need to do into fixing the public health,
Speaker 1: don't just fix it for COVID, fix it for what
Speaker 1: is actually killing us and creating one of the least
Speaker 1: healthy nations in the country. Focus on chronic diseases. Also,
Speaker 1: it's the same infrastructure, those epidemiologists, the disease tracking, the laboratories.
Speaker 1: You design it for the full picture, including your strengthen
Speaker 1: those agencies like c DC so that they have the
Speaker 1: authority to deal with what are some of those underlying causes,
Speaker 1: which in a lot of cases is economic. Uh, it
Speaker 1: is the financial stresses that um, some of the undergirding
Speaker 1: of why people are in eating healthy or don't have
Speaker 1: safe roads to travel on. That's causing us to be
Speaker 1: the least healthy wealthy nation. So Dr hearn Um, we
Speaker 1: were talking about the importance of really reworking, updating, improving,
Speaker 1: bringing to the twenty one century. You know, our infrastructure,
Speaker 1: our healthcare infrastructure. Having said that, did our infrastructure fail us?
Speaker 1: Not just the physical infrastructure, but the political infrastructure in
Speaker 1: the nation's capital. So what I will say is that
Speaker 1: we have failed public health for decades now. It's actually
Speaker 1: been a relatively nonpartisan issue of equal opportunity to neglect.
Speaker 1: We put a lot of money into investigating uh, therapeutics
Speaker 1: for diseases, but we don't put the money into understanding
Speaker 1: what causes those diseases in the first place, and how
Speaker 1: we confessed create a healthier nation if public health doing
Speaker 1: its job right and it is positioned right, we're keeping
Speaker 1: people out of the sick care system. We're keeping out
Speaker 1: of hospitals, out of doctors offices, out of you know,
Speaker 1: spiraling pharmaceutical costs. It's it's one of the best bangs
Speaker 1: for the book, But we haven't really done the proper investments, uh,
Speaker 1: with that kind of mindset the way that other countries have.
Speaker 1: And that's that's what we've neglected. So Dr Hearn, as
Speaker 1: we look ahead and we seek to seize this moment.
Speaker 1: Where as you rightly pointed out earlier in the conversation,
Speaker 1: we're going to spend a lot of money. We're we're
Speaker 1: going to direct a lot of resources towards public health.
Speaker 1: What's the first place, generally speaking, that a hospital administrator
Speaker 1: should be looking towards. You talked about those chronic diseases
Speaker 1: and treatment thereof, But how do we spend the money
Speaker 1: correctly to start to tackle this. What's what's the low
Speaker 1: hanging fruit here? If there is any you bet. So
Speaker 1: here's what we need to do. We we have health
Speaker 1: departments which are actually our frontline defense, and we rarely
Speaker 1: talk about them because if they're doing their job, you
Speaker 1: don't see them. And those health departments need to be
Speaker 1: invested in, not just for COVID response, because we've had
Speaker 1: these things before. We've had sorrows, we've vanned an tracks,
Speaker 1: we trailed money at it, We do a little tiny
Speaker 1: fix and then mother nature or terrorism or someone throws
Speaker 1: us a curveball and we just fixed that little that
Speaker 1: little you know, we kind of strapped on a band
Speaker 1: aid instead of How about a disease surveillance system that
Speaker 1: tracks the health of respiratory diseases, so whether it's COVID
Speaker 1: or asthma, which is one of the number one causes
Speaker 1: of hospitalization law school days, absentee is um but we
Speaker 1: actually don't even track that nationally. We don't have the
Speaker 1: proper basics. What's the health of the community. Where are
Speaker 1: big problems? When we see a spike, go in and
Speaker 1: investigate catch it early, whether it's chronic or a short
Speaker 1: term injectures outbreak. We could do such a better job
Speaker 1: if we would just do that. Core investment in the
Speaker 1: public health system, not the health care system. What's your
Speaker 1: hope that that happens? I do? And actually, here here's
Speaker 1: the silver line. And the business community has really gotten
Speaker 1: it that they have been hurt, they've suffered, they've each
Speaker 1: had to We've got some of the companies that are
Speaker 1: creating their own contact tracing forces. That's a government job,
Speaker 1: that's a government responsibility. But we didn't have enough uh
Speaker 1: staff in place. We don't have the proper numbers. We've
Speaker 1: been cutting year after year after year. And when I
Speaker 1: think that, you'll see some of the top leaders stepping
Speaker 1: up and saying, sure, we can do contact tracing, but
Speaker 1: it's not our core competency. It's just like good roads,
Speaker 1: just like good school systems. We've gotta have a good
Speaker 1: public health system that keeps things operating. That's not our job,
Speaker 1: but we need to be out there advocating that that
Speaker 1: we build those systems right in the first place so
Speaker 1: that we're all healthier and wealthier. And well, all right,
Speaker 1: we're gonna leave it there. Really enjoyed talking to you.
Speaker 1: Come back in it with us, please. Dr Shelley Hearn,
Speaker 1: Director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Public Health, Advocacy
Speaker 1: and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. She
Speaker 1: joined us on the phone from Charleston, South Carolina, a
Speaker 1: terrific city. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser
Speaker 1: and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. This is one of
Speaker 1: these stories that people I barely know are emailing and
Speaker 1: texting me about because it is just that good and
Speaker 1: really speaks to something that may have been missed or
Speaker 1: uncovered or undercovered in this whole sort of economic carnage.
Speaker 1: And that's the term that this writer uses in his
Speaker 1: story talking about Ben Steve Orman, one of our favorites,
Speaker 1: a go to guy when it comes to really understanding
Speaker 1: the personal aspect of economics. He joins us on the phone.
Speaker 1: Were also joined, of course, by Bloomberg Business Week editor
Speaker 1: Joel Weber. Joel set this up for us. I love
Speaker 1: this story. So we started talking about this one a
Speaker 1: couple of months ago because we just felt that the
Speaker 1: character that been right about who's at Harvard his name
Speaker 1: is Raj Chetty, was one um of all the people
Speaker 1: that we were wondering what he was going to be
Speaker 1: doing during the pandemic. Um he was. He was one
Speaker 1: name that we just really wanted to know about, and
Speaker 1: so we talked to Ben because Ben has done some
Speaker 1: amazing coverage sort of in this space before, and when
Speaker 1: we put them together, some magic happened and that ended
Speaker 1: up being this story that's in our equality issue and
Speaker 1: and I'll let Ben speak to it more more closely,
Speaker 1: but basically, uh, Mr Chetty and his team of about
Speaker 1: forty people at Harvard have tried to get a god's
Speaker 1: eye view of of data during the pandemic and the
Speaker 1: tool that they have assembled is basically I think unparalleled
Speaker 1: and presenting uh, just how real the carnage is. And
Speaker 1: on that note, I'll turn it over to Ben been
Speaker 1: how bad is it based on the data that Raj
Speaker 1: and company are resembling. Yes, so they pulled together all
Speaker 1: this private data from all these companies, which has never
Speaker 1: been done on this scale before. And um, you can
Speaker 1: really see down to the neighborhood level, and you can
Speaker 1: see these neighborhoods, especially wealthier neighborhoods where wealthier people live.
Speaker 1: That is, um, you can see what's happening to small businesses.
Speaker 1: What's happened to small businesses in March and April is
Speaker 1: like they're down seventy in terms of sales. Some some
Speaker 1: neighborhoods in Midtown Manhattan, you've got got um the sales
Speaker 1: are down, and the tracker is able to then kind
Speaker 1: of track that, Okay, the dollars aren't coming into the
Speaker 1: small businesses. So that's then what's happening to the workers.
Speaker 1: And you see the employment rate for low income people.
Speaker 1: Lower income people really fall. So these are the people
Speaker 1: that do your nails and and uh, you know, pour
Speaker 1: you beers and serve you food at restaurants. Um. All
Speaker 1: these people have been been at at you know, unemployed.
Speaker 1: But you can also see, and this tracker that moment
Speaker 1: when those stimulus checks arrives. It's a day by day,
Speaker 1: week by week, state by state, neighborhood by neighborhood trackers.
Speaker 1: So you can really see that like the precise moment
Speaker 1: when those UM checks arrive, and you can see spending
Speaker 1: by lower income people really really increase. But the thing
Speaker 1: is a lot of them we're spending money online, not
Speaker 1: in person and um and and a lot of wealthy
Speaker 1: people are wealthier people just the top or so are
Speaker 1: staying home and they're not they're not spending still, you know,
Speaker 1: six months into this thing. I gotta say, Ben, one
Speaker 1: of the things that we talked about on our morning
Speaker 1: planning call today when we knew we were going to
Speaker 1: do this story. And I should point out it's been
Speaker 1: among the most read on the Bloomberg from the get
Speaker 1: go on this Thursday. But our producer Paul Brennan pointed out,
Speaker 1: there's a line in your story the American dream is dead, um,
Speaker 1: and talking about Cheddy's work as he proved with exhaustive
Speaker 1: government data showing today's workers can no longer expect to
Speaker 1: earn more than their parents did. I remember my parents.
Speaker 1: I'm one of seven kids, you know, nine people, and
Speaker 1: it's amazing what my parents did it. They wanted even
Speaker 1: more for us, you know, and I think we've done that,
Speaker 1: but it's it's kind of depressing to think that that's
Speaker 1: not going to be the case potentially for a lot
Speaker 1: of generations, uh, in our country right now and a
Speaker 1: lot of people in our country totally. And you know,
Speaker 1: the reality is is really is really awful. But the
Speaker 1: way that he's been able to show these things is
Speaker 1: really interesting to me. Um. This is this is a
Speaker 1: big data he's using. He's basically using big data and
Speaker 1: that's really revolutionized economics in the last ten years or
Speaker 1: so because he doesn't have to build a theory or
Speaker 1: a model for for what's happening. He can actually dive
Speaker 1: into this these huge data sets of tax data, census
Speaker 1: data and see individual people and see what's happening to
Speaker 1: them over their lives um as they grow up and
Speaker 1: have careers and retire. And he's been able to really
Speaker 1: he's really proving that that that what's happened over the
Speaker 1: last day four to years to the American dream. He's
Speaker 1: also shown the barriers that really this um for Black Americans,
Speaker 1: even privileged Black Americans in terms of being able to
Speaker 1: match their parents incomes and so um. You can see racism,
Speaker 1: you can see education and how great educations can really
Speaker 1: help people. A great teacher can really have a huge
Speaker 1: impact on someone's career. So that's that was his background
Speaker 1: before he went over and dropped everything and started studying
Speaker 1: the pandemic. But it's it's one using these giant data
Speaker 1: sussorily prove the reality out there and really pay attention
Speaker 1: to the places where, um, we're falling short as a country.
Speaker 1: And one of the ways that he's able to to
Speaker 1: build this tool is obviously the I mean, it's all
Speaker 1: about the inputs, right, and the data that he's able
Speaker 1: to get, And that's also what you mentioned this earlier band.
Speaker 1: That's what makes this tracker so unbelievably effective is that
Speaker 1: he's got all these sources of data that he can
Speaker 1: basically aggregate that have never been sort of assembled in
Speaker 1: this way before. How did he go about getting that
Speaker 1: and why was anybody willing to give it to him?
Speaker 1: It's a great question because is this idea of he's
Speaker 1: basically been using private data, right, he's been using UM
Speaker 1: MasterCard is is giving him data UM into it. A
Speaker 1: bunch of other companies, some of them you maybe haven't
Speaker 1: heard of, but there are a lot of different companies
Speaker 1: that have have really interesting proprietary private data. But the
Speaker 1: challenge is a getting them to hand that over. And
Speaker 1: you know, they're handing over aggregated, anonymized data, so there's
Speaker 1: not much of a danger of privacy breach. But UM.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons he's able to do this is
Speaker 1: because he has this background using all this I R.
Speaker 1: S and tax all this tax and other data government
Speaker 1: data that's super secret, so he has some credibility from that,
Speaker 1: but there's also been this moment in the economy where
Speaker 1: these private businesses they also want to see us UM,
Speaker 1: you know, recover. They also want to see UM the
Speaker 1: economy get back on track. So they've been way more
Speaker 1: willing and open to his approaches. And he's still looking
Speaker 1: for more data. He's still reaching out to folks trying
Speaker 1: to find more data because he sees this as being
Speaker 1: sort of the next frontier for economic analysis. And and
Speaker 1: this could really be an awesome tool, not just for
Speaker 1: for the studying the national economy, but think about a
Speaker 1: local problem in your neighborhood, or like think about a
Speaker 1: natural disaster hits a particular state. You could go down
Speaker 1: and drill in and see what where, where's the places
Speaker 1: that where are the places that really need help. It's
Speaker 1: it's really cool. Now, it's a terrific for any moment,
Speaker 1: any given moment into Taylor. Yeah. Absolutely, it's a terrific
Speaker 1: piece of reporting. Thank you so much for bringing it
Speaker 1: to as Ben Stephen, personal finance editor for Bloomberg, he's
Speaker 1: back in our Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. Sorry we're not
Speaker 1: there to greet him in person. Also joined by Joel Webber,
Speaker 1: the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. One of the quotes
Speaker 1: that really jumped out at me Darren Walker from the
Speaker 1: Ford Foundation, talking about Chetty. He understands that growing inequality
Speaker 1: asphyxiates hope and makes it impossible for people to dream
Speaker 1: and believe that their children will have better lives. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Well, so much going on in the
Speaker 1: world of politics, so so much going on. So who
Speaker 1: do we need to turn to? Carol? One guy, Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: partner at Stone Court Capital, former Republican strategists and also
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg contributor, So I could have him in the family,
Speaker 1: he joins us on the phone from Virginia. All Right, Rick,
Speaker 1: forty days out, I can't imagine that anybody would have
Speaker 1: predicted this is where we were going to be, But
Speaker 1: I think you probably could have said that every day
Speaker 1: for the last few years. What do you make of
Speaker 1: this moment? And let's start with this notion of a
Speaker 1: peaceful transfer of power. I can't believe we're talking about this. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the least likely concerned we have for this election.
Speaker 1: We've had success for two hundred and more years of
Speaker 1: transfer of power, and we won't have that problem this time.
Speaker 1: I think one of the suggestions that we was sent
Speaker 1: by Republican law mayor makers on the Hill today was
Speaker 1: we're not going to let there be anything other than
Speaker 1: a peaceful transition of power. So if, like with Nixon, uh,
Speaker 1: Senate leaders from your own party have to go to
Speaker 1: the White House and say it's time to go. But um,
Speaker 1: the message I got today was they're prepared to do that.
Speaker 1: So you feel better about what it based on what
Speaker 1: you heard that the response was strong enough for the
Speaker 1: Republicans to sort of quiet your mind at least. Sure, Um,
Speaker 1: it was swift. Uh. They they got out there, leadership
Speaker 1: McConnell and others within the new cycle that Trump started
Speaker 1: this debate. Of course it's not the first time we've
Speaker 1: ever heard this from Donald Trump, but certainly it was
Speaker 1: a little more emphatic this time about not counting ballots.
Speaker 1: So I think that the leadership in the Senate stood
Speaker 1: up today and said, you know this, this will be
Speaker 1: an orderly transition. We will not go backwards on our
Speaker 1: democracy and uh. And I would suspect that, um, that
Speaker 1: that if there is a win for Biden in the
Speaker 1: general election. Um, the Senate uniformly will stand up and say,
Speaker 1: you know, let's let's enter into a transition. Well, sure,
Speaker 1: because they've not got potentially control of the Supreme Court. Well,
Speaker 1: I think that the Supreme Court decision may be decided
Speaker 1: long before the election. Uh, it may be a de
Speaker 1: facto confirmation process. Right, They're gonna speed it up as
Speaker 1: fast as they can in the committee. Uh, And it
Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me that they try to have the vote
Speaker 1: even before the election. Now, almost all of the major
Speaker 1: legislation that the Senate has is not going to be
Speaker 1: active upon until the lame Duck, so certainly this could
Speaker 1: happen too. But they do run the risk in Arizona
Speaker 1: and Georgia, where those two seats are, elections for the
Speaker 1: Senate are are being done to fulfill a vacancy and
Speaker 1: thus literally could turn over before the end of the
Speaker 1: month in November. So I don't think they want to
Speaker 1: run the risk at either one of those flips. But
Speaker 1: as a Republican strategist, ric, I mean, that's the power,
Speaker 1: right that the Republicans Conservatives will largely have potentially control
Speaker 1: of the Supreme Court by their appointees for decades to come.
Speaker 1: I mean that's the power, right, Well, arguably they do
Speaker 1: now is always the intent of the Trump administration. But
Speaker 1: really the quiet work that McConnell's been doing for a
Speaker 1: long time. I mean, you know, he will tell people
Speaker 1: that his legacy will be a conservative federal bench from
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court on down. And you've seen the incredible
Speaker 1: pace with which they've filled vacancies on the federal bench.
Speaker 1: So really this is going to be the story for
Speaker 1: the next twenty five years. So setting aside the procedural
Speaker 1: let's talk about the political side for the Democrats, Rick,
Speaker 1: because procedurally they got much, but politically, what's the playbook here? Well,
Speaker 1: I think for the Democrats it's a little dangerous, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, arguably there's a case to be made that
Speaker 1: there was an overreach on Kavanaugh, you know, the last
Speaker 1: Supreme Court nominee to be uh put on the court. Um,
Speaker 1: if you have a majority in the Senate, as Republicans do,
Speaker 1: and it's pretty clear with the vote count now that
Speaker 1: they've got the votes for whoever Donald Trump appoints, and
Speaker 1: of course people matter in this case, so that that
Speaker 1: still yet to be seen. Uh if it's gonna happen anyway. Um,
Speaker 1: you've got to gauge what you're gonna get out of
Speaker 1: it politically. Right now, arguably Biden's making progress on Trump's
Speaker 1: base in the suburbs. Don't screw that up with a
Speaker 1: big fight on a on a essentially right And and
Speaker 1: look a lot of these uh people who may be
Speaker 1: considering voting for Biden who voted for Trump in two
Speaker 1: thousand and sixteen, maybe pro choice or maybe pro life,
Speaker 1: and and and you're threading the eye of the needle.
Speaker 1: Is especially if the nominee to the bench is you know,
Speaker 1: one of the nominees who has a strong pro life record,
Speaker 1: would you rather have a president in place or make
Speaker 1: a case in the next month before the before the hearing.
Speaker 1: So I think there's very little to gain. I think
Speaker 1: there's a base element to this where they've got to
Speaker 1: look like they've the Democrats have to look like they've
Speaker 1: maintained some semblance of base politics. But they're not going
Speaker 1: to pick up any votes at this stage by putting
Speaker 1: on a show and trying to hold up a nominee. Rick,
Speaker 1: let's talk about Cindy McCain, obviously, the widow of John McCain.
Speaker 1: You worked on his presidential campaign. What does it mean
Speaker 1: that Cindy McCain endorsed Joe Biden. You know, I think
Speaker 1: it speaks to two big issues. One obviously an advantage
Speaker 1: for Joe Biden to get such a high profile Republican family,
Speaker 1: UH to endorse his candidacy. But to Cindy was out
Speaker 1: of politics. Right since Centator McCain passed away, she has
Speaker 1: really stayed out of politics. Obviously, UM with Donald Trump
Speaker 1: in the White House and and sort of his regular
Speaker 1: irregular outbursts about Sarah McCain. Even after he passed away,
Speaker 1: she's kept her thoughts to herself and has not engaged
Speaker 1: in any kind of political endorsements or responses to President Trump.
Speaker 1: So she comes at this with no baggage towards the present,
Speaker 1: but a willingness now to sort of break with the
Speaker 1: Republican ranks and UH and support Joe Biden, who she's
Speaker 1: known personally for forty years. Rick. Before we let you go,
Speaker 1: just one more quick question for you, which is, and
Speaker 1: you alluded to this earlier, going slightly down ballot into
Speaker 1: the Senate. You know, these special elections are in Arizona
Speaker 1: and Georgia. Specifically, what else should be Are those the
Speaker 1: key races to watch? What are the key like one
Speaker 1: or two Senate races that we should be watching given
Speaker 1: that so much hangs on the Senate. Now, sure, I
Speaker 1: would say there are probably seven races right now that
Speaker 1: are would consider toss ups in the United States Senate.
Speaker 1: And as you know the math, uh, it's only going
Speaker 1: to take four to flip the Senate. And assuming that
Speaker 1: the presidency flips in the the vice president can break
Speaker 1: whatever ties that they need to break. But four seats
Speaker 1: flip the Senate no matter who's president. And and so
Speaker 1: with seven seats up, it's it's anybody's game. The two
Speaker 1: seats that we discussed in Arizona and Georgia are actually
Speaker 1: special elections and uh, and so they're they're new members
Speaker 1: whoever it is take office as early as the middle
Speaker 1: of late November. So those are really key ones to watch.
Speaker 1: And of course Georgia a battleground state in Arizona, a
Speaker 1: battleground state, are going to be are right now very
Speaker 1: close and the presidential campaign could weigh heavy on those races.
Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, We're gonna be keeping in close touch
Speaker 1: with you. Forty days to go, Rick Davis, thank you
Speaker 1: so much for your time. Partner Stone Court Capital, former
Speaker 1: Republican strategist and of course a Bloomberg contributor. I'm ROC journal. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no no
Speaker 1: home honey please, I'll do the vel I want to drive,
Speaker 1: Just drive, baby questions trying. This is the drive to
Speaker 1: the globe community. Thanks well, un on Bloomberg Radio, it
Speaker 1: is time for the drive to the close back with us.
Speaker 1: As Charles Lemonidis, founder and chief investment officer at the
Speaker 1: investment manager Value Works. They focus on a value discipline um,
Speaker 1: which for a long time has been a tough way
Speaker 1: to go in this market, but certainly, as we've seen
Speaker 1: some pullbacks, maybe makes it a little bit easier. He
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone in New York City. Um, chous,
Speaker 1: how are you. We were having a very good time
Speaker 1: in the markets lately, Thanks very much. In other words,
Speaker 1: a pullback happens and you're like, finally, Well, it's not
Speaker 1: so much that the pullback happens as finally, but there's
Speaker 1: been um, there's been a lot of discernment and where
Speaker 1: the pullback is happening, and how it's happening, and that's
Speaker 1: probably a little bit overdone, and it's probably about time
Speaker 1: that that happens. Um And look, we have to expect
Speaker 1: the markets to be very choppy for the next several
Speaker 1: months because of where we are in the world, and
Speaker 1: so where we are in the world, man, I mean,
Speaker 1: where to begin. Let's start, because we're talking about it
Speaker 1: earlier in this hour with the election. You know, this
Speaker 1: is the sort of thing that normally, sure, we're totally
Speaker 1: focused on a presidential election with forty days to go,
Speaker 1: but with all the headlines coming out, whether it is
Speaker 1: the president's comments last night and having to be essentially
Speaker 1: be assured by the Republican majority that know there will
Speaker 1: be a peaceful transfer of power, whether it is this
Speaker 1: notion that we're not going to know the evening of
Speaker 1: November three or even the morning of November four, How
Speaker 1: much more complicated does it make it? And how does
Speaker 1: that change your perspective on figuring politics into the equation.
Speaker 1: Your point is spot on, because my perspective is that
Speaker 1: there tends to be a very very clear pattern around
Speaker 1: elections that once you know the winner, doesn't matter if
Speaker 1: it's which party is from. Historically, once we've known the winner,
Speaker 1: the markets have a really strong advance, and look, ultimately,
Speaker 1: you have to recognize that, whatever your political perspective is,
Speaker 1: fifty plus percent of the people liked and back to
Speaker 1: the winner, and so fifty plus percent of the people
Speaker 1: are pretty happy with the outcome. You may not be,
Speaker 1: but once we have an outcome, you know, it creates
Speaker 1: a tremendous sense of relief for at least half of
Speaker 1: the population, and the markets tend to go higher once
Speaker 1: we have a winner. The funny thing about this particular
Speaker 1: cycle is that there's a greater possibility this time around
Speaker 1: because of tell in voting, not because of anyone's nefarious
Speaker 1: intent necessarily um, but just because of where the world
Speaker 1: is sort of mechanically. You have to accept that there's
Speaker 1: a very good chance we won't know the winner, and
Speaker 1: that that creates an uncertainty and a pressure on this
Speaker 1: market that you're just not sure it's going to be
Speaker 1: relieved on November two. So when you look at the market,
Speaker 1: I mean, our guys, our audience really loves to know
Speaker 1: where uh people are buying and selling in this market.
Speaker 1: What are some names that maybe have been all of
Speaker 1: a sudden new opportunities for you. I think Goldman Sachs
Speaker 1: is spot perfect for for the type of name that
Speaker 1: you want to talk about right now. They have a
Speaker 1: franchise that is super solid, evaluation that is super solid,
Speaker 1: and they're in the group of finances that have been
Speaker 1: just unloved for a long time, and they're large enough
Speaker 1: as a group that they can carry the next leg
Speaker 1: of a market advance. They won't necessarily, but they sure
Speaker 1: can so. And everything else that the company has intact
Speaker 1: is like sort of their problems are very much behind them.
Speaker 1: And then another company in the same vein in terms
Speaker 1: of large, liquid, well known, well capitalized, solid business that
Speaker 1: is very attractive. The price that hasn't participated is Comcast.
Speaker 1: Their business is going in all the right directions despite
Speaker 1: what's happening um in advertising, which is pretty impressive given
Speaker 1: that specific headwind. And again it's the type of company
Speaker 1: that could provide broad leadership for for the next leg
Speaker 1: of the market advance. And I think, well, the market
Speaker 1: is likely to be bumpy over the next couple of
Speaker 1: months and really really bollatle I think six nine months
Speaker 1: from now, we're highly likely to be ten to higher
Speaker 1: than we are today. Wow. So, Charles, how do you
Speaker 1: figure in the big tech names into this conversation. We
Speaker 1: talk about them all the time, whether it's Apple, Amazon,
Speaker 1: We're hearing about some new devices today, Tesla. We went
Speaker 1: back and forth on over the past few days with
Speaker 1: battery Day and predictions of a cheaper e V by
Speaker 1: Elon Musk. How do you sort of figure all that
Speaker 1: into this market. Well, it's very very tricky, because it's
Speaker 1: true that these companies have great market position, great growth potential,
Speaker 1: really solid um business models. The problem is that they
Speaker 1: are very, very very fully priced, and the bigger problem
Speaker 1: is that they may get more fully priced in the
Speaker 1: months and years ahead. You know, we lived through the
Speaker 1: late nineties when companies like this really captured investors attention,
Speaker 1: and they should capture investors intention attention because they're great
Speaker 1: companies and great businesses and they've made people a lot
Speaker 1: of money up until now, and anyone betting against them
Speaker 1: up until now has been run over. And then they
Speaker 1: backed up the bus and run them over again. Um,
Speaker 1: there's no reason to know, there's no clear when, no
Speaker 1: way to know when that's going to end. But every
Speaker 1: month and every quarter that it continues, you're sort of
Speaker 1: getting closer to Thanksgiving and you're you're the Turkey. You
Speaker 1: just don't know when it's going to happen. That wasn't
Speaker 1: a bus, that was a cyber truck. I was just
Speaker 1: gonna says a little dark about the bus and everything.
Speaker 1: Um yeah, I just yeah, you know, this is an
Speaker 1: interesting market time, and it's it's with these big macro issues,
Speaker 1: whether it's fires, whether it's the election, There's so much
Speaker 1: going on. Um do you feel like, I don't know,
Speaker 1: six months from now, it's a very different game in
Speaker 1: the market. I think it's very very likely to be
Speaker 1: very very different six months from now, nine months from now,
Speaker 1: maybe four months from now. Look, I'm pretty sure the
Speaker 1: election will be resolved three or four months from now,
Speaker 1: not before six months from now. And I also think
Speaker 1: six months from now will be in March coming into April. Um.
Speaker 1: And it's highly likely that the virus situation is much
Speaker 1: much better than it is today. Now. Who knows what
Speaker 1: happens with second wave. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't,
Speaker 1: but even uh and who knows how bad it gets.
Speaker 1: But the odds are that we're making huge strides in
Speaker 1: terms of treating people who get sick, controlling how many
Speaker 1: people get sick and maybe um having a vaccine at
Speaker 1: some point. So that huge overhang, that huge uncertainty, it's
Speaker 1: going to be behind, you know, let's hope it's behind us.
Speaker 1: Six months from now, and six months from now, it
Speaker 1: is like sort of a short time and sort of
Speaker 1: a very very long time, right well, considering we've all
Speaker 1: been home more than six months, you know, six months
Speaker 1: at this point, we getting nervous on the downside, right right.
Speaker 1: Absolutely really good to catch up with you. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Charles Immondi's founder chief invest from Sir Value Works,
Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from New York City. I
Speaker 1: do want to emphasize that that point that he made though,
Speaker 1: that I feel like for a long time it's like vaccine, vaccine, vaccine,
Speaker 1: gotta get to a vaccine. And now we're sort of saying, well,
Speaker 1: maybe there's a vaccine, and there will be at some point,
Speaker 1: but really, let's just get a handle on this. Let's
Speaker 1: figure out, wear a mask, social distance, be smart. We
Speaker 1: can handle this, so let's get to it. Thanks so
Speaker 1: much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast
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