1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, so you can hear the 2 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: shatters from the crowd. We have a big chance, a 3 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: big chance to make it. 4 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 2: The lun push the Big Bucks three time a. 5 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast Buckets Edition for the 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: NBA Finals. My name is Matt Moore. I'm the senior 7 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: NBA writer for the Action Network. I'm joined by my 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: producer and colleague Dan Titus, as we are going to 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: break down the NBA Finals, give you a look at 10 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: the best prices for the series. We'll give you looks 11 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: at Game one, will give you. Dan is obviously the 12 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: host of our fantasy episodes over on Buckets, So we're 13 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: gonna get into our props and give you like a 14 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: deep dive there. If you're looking for more on the 15 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: NBA Finals and you want to really get into the weeds, 16 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: check out Buckets. It's the best way that you're going 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: to find the stuff. It's over wherever you get podcasts, 18 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: find our Buckets podcast. We do daily stuff during the playoffs, 19 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: the off season track of the Futures. We've got three 20 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: episodes up already that I cover all this stuff in detail. 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: I was also on the Favorites You Cannot Get enough 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: NBA Finals content over the Action Network and our and 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: our network, our family of podcasts. First off, Dan Titus, 24 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 1: how you doing on this Wednesday afternoon as we record this. 25 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 3: Man, I'm feeling great and thank you for having me on. 26 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 3: It's been a pleasure. Love listening to the Tan podcast 27 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 3: as well as Buckets. So, as Matt just alluded to, 28 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 3: if you need basketball content, go to Buckets. That is 29 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 3: the place to be. And happy blated birthday to you. 30 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 3: I know you were celebrating your birthday. Won't won't aid 31 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 3: you out to the streets here, but happy birthday to you. 32 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 3: But this is awesome, man, this is It's Wednesday. We 33 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 3: got one more day left to see this NBA Finals 34 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: really take shape. 35 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 2: Man, it's going to be a great series. 36 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 3: I think we lucked out and saw two of the 37 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 3: best teams in the NBA end up in the final 38 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 3: spot here. So I'm curious to see where the pendulum 39 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 3: swings here. Is it going to be the youth movement 40 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 3: is it going to be the veterans side. I think 41 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: either way we're going to get great basketball. So great 42 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: time to be a fan of basketball. 43 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: For sure. 44 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: I'm excited for this too, because this way you'll get 45 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: to experience what it's like when we have so much 46 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: to talk about that we can't give it to the 47 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: thirty five minutes. You constantly asked me to keep buckets 48 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: too well to let you know that if you are 49 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 1: playing on betting the NBA Finals or anything in the 50 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: entire universe, including if you're into the NHL Playoffs, which 51 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: I attended Game one of the Western Conference Finals in 52 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: Denver last night, defensive slugfest between the Colorado Avalanche and 53 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: the Vonton Oilers eight to six, go abs. If you're 54 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 1: looking to do any of that, you want download the 55 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: Action Network AUP. It's the best way for your tracker picks. 56 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:41,959 Speaker 1: You get up in the second information on where the 57 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: bets are coming in as well as the money. As 58 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: you can see, hey, pro betters are coming in here, 59 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: We've got our signals under the each game page. It's 60 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: going to give you an in depth look both for 61 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: the spread, the money line and the total, for where 62 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: the bets are coming in, what our systems say, where 63 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: the public is. All of this could be found in 64 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 1: the Action Network app. You can also track picks from 65 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,839 Speaker 1: all of your favorite experts, including Brandon Anderson. You've got 66 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: Joe Delera who joined me on the Buckets podcast, and Titus, 67 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: you got all of our NHL crew, Simon Hunter, everybody 68 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Download it right now. Let's 69 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: get into this, Dan, So let's take a look at 70 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: just right off the top. I don't like to mess around. 71 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 1: Let's just go ahead and give this one out series bet. 72 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: What's your best bet for Warriors Celtics NBA Finals. 73 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 3: I think this is going to be a dog fight 74 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 3: between two great defensive teams, and I think this is 75 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 3: going to be a long series, So I'm betting this 76 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 3: series to end in seven games at plus two ten. 77 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 3: I think we're going to see both teams have to adjust. 78 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 3: You know, there's a lot of trends that have been 79 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 3: discussed at nauseum on a lot of different podcasts about 80 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 3: how the Warriors are pretty heavily favored in game one. 81 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 3: I think it's going to take time for Boston to ads. 82 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: They will. 83 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 3: We've seen the Warriors also be sloppy, so I could 84 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 3: see a lot of tick for Tach with for these teams. 85 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: From a strategy perspective, extending is the series out to 86 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 3: seven games, I. 87 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: Think it's fascinating you. On the podcast I did with 88 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: Ken Barklay for Buckets, we kind of talked about how 89 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: he made a really good point, which was, if you 90 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: think that the that the series is priced appropriately, and 91 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 1: it's basically you got Warriors minus one sixty Celtics plus 92 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:23,919 Speaker 1: one thirty five to one forty at most places. If 93 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: you think it's priced appropriately given that the Golden State 94 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: Warriors do have home court advantage and are a little 95 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 1: bit healthier, which I think is a fair assumption, then 96 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: the value is probably found in the alternate markets, which 97 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: I think is like an interesting kind of approach. Like 98 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: I'm I'm considering, as we get closer, maybe putting in 99 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: something because as anyone that listens to Buckets knows, I'm 100 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 1: always betting these things eight different ways to come out 101 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: with a smaller profit that I can feel like I've 102 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: covered all angles on Gemini in me. As my old 103 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: colleague Rahem Palmer would say, so, like I'm looking at 104 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: things like what if it's Warriors minus two and a half, 105 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: what it's like a quicker series than we expect. You know, 106 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: they win the first two games and win a coin 107 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: flip in Boston and close it out. You know, the 108 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: playoffs have been disappointing for I think for a lot 109 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 1: of people, and so it's like, what if this isn't 110 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: as as much of a dogfight as we kind of expect. 111 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: One of the ways to kind of go against that thinking. 112 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: But ultimately where I came down to is I've got 113 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:18,799 Speaker 1: Celtics minus one and a half on the wind spread 114 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: at plus two hundred, and for me, it just comes 115 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: down to if this gets the six games, I expect 116 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: the war the Celtics to have a chance to win 117 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: it in six and I'll probably hedge because I have 118 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 1: enough respect for the Warriors. At plus two hundred, that 119 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: price is the best one that ICEE available on the board. 120 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: I can't get to a place where I'm like, yeah, 121 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: I think one team wins three of the first four. 122 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: I just can't get there. Is it possible? Absolutely? But Boston, 123 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: as Brandon Anderson is constantly mentioned, has been so good 124 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: after losses, Like they've just been so good at responding 125 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: to losses. 126 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 2: They've been in the postseason. 127 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, they faced all that adversity and come back every 128 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: single time. The Warriors are too good to be like, yeah, 129 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 1: I really think they're going to get knocked out of this, 130 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 1: like Boston's going to win one in Golden State and 131 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: two at home. Boston, as good as they've been after losses, 132 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: hasn't been great after wins either. Early in series they've 133 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: had to win. You know, they beat the Bucks in 134 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: back to back games, but in general, the Celtics have 135 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: had a hard time stringing together good performances. And so 136 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: I do think I'm with you that this series goes long. 137 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: I think finding value on it is interesting. Here's an 138 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: interesting one that can ask me. I mean, it's a 139 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:27,919 Speaker 1: pretty basic question, but I do think it's more interesting 140 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: when we look at the stories because the market, I 141 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: think is fascinating. The numbers say it's Celtics. That's why 142 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: all these like Raheem Palmer has this favored with the Celtics. 143 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: Five point thirty eight thinks the Celtics are highly rated. 144 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: ESPN Sports Center has a viral tweak this morning talk 145 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: about how the Celtics have an eighty six percent chance 146 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: of winning the finals, which everyone's like, you. 147 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: Know, the bit rich. 148 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot of ratio coming in on that. 149 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 1: So the numbers say Boston's better, the market says the 150 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: Warriors better. Who do you think is the better team 151 00:06:59,120 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 1: between these two. 152 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 3: Celtics are a better team, But I can't get past 153 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 3: the fact that you're going to have to come back 154 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 3: from a potential Game one loss and you're gonna have 155 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 3: to travel to the Bay for Game seven, And you know, 156 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 3: I think it really comes down to the fact that 157 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 3: if you're if you're that much of a believer in Boston, 158 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 3: are you gonna buy Boston right now at that plus 159 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 3: one thirty? You can get better value if they lose 160 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 3: on Thursday, right So, I don't know. I think that 161 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 3: they have a pretty tough sledding ahead of them to win. 162 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 3: Those two games are going to be the most important ones, 163 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 3: and I think that the Warriors certainly remember, you know, 164 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 3: Steph Curry went down with an ankle injury that forced 165 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: him to miss a portion of the season. At the 166 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 3: end there with that Marcus Smart diving into his ankle. 167 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 3: We know that they've lost a very memorable Game seven 168 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 3: to the Cleveland Cavaliers some years ago. I think that 169 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 3: this is the moment where I think we'll see the 170 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 3: Warriors kind of overtake and ignact their dominance here. I 171 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 3: also put a sprinkle on the Warriors winning Game seven 172 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 3: at plus four to ten. I really like that bet 173 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 3: as well. But this is gonna come down to ken 174 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 3: the Boston Celtics defense hold up for seven games, and 175 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,239 Speaker 3: after going through two grueling game sevens and a really 176 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 3: tough path, way harder than the Warriors have faced in 177 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 3: this postseason, I think something's got to give, and eventually 178 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 3: it's going to be the Warriors that out last year. 179 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: I think, whoever wins, I can already build you the 180 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: working backwards revisionist history narrative. So if the Celtics win 181 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: this series, it's look, we saw all year the Golden 182 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: State was inconsistent. We saw that their offense with fall 183 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: apart at times. Steph Curry didn't have that great of 184 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: a shooting season. You know, they faced Denver without without 185 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: two of their three best players. Jah got around and 186 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: Dallas really wasn't that good. Phoenix just vomited over itself. 187 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: So the Golden State really wasn't that good. If Golden 188 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 1: State wins, it's you know, look, after the first month 189 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: of the season, they were the best team in the league. 190 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: It wasn't Phoenix, it was Golden State. It was just 191 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: a Draymond got hurt and then when he came back, 192 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: Steph got hurt. They rolled through the Western Conference playoffs. 193 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: They wont two series in five games, and really you know, 194 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: the random crazy game in Memphis in Game five. Other 195 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: than that, they handle business versus them as well. They 196 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: won Game one in Memphis. The Warriors were just the 197 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: best team all year. So it's like a reason I 198 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: say this is as betters, especially after the series, if 199 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: you're looking at you want to get an early bed 200 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: in on the finals for next season. We'll have breakdowns 201 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 1: for that on Action Network. Obviously you're not gonna get 202 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: your value. Is not great when you don't know how 203 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: free agency is gonna look. But just be real careful 204 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 1: of how we reframe things after results. I'm always very 205 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: cautious about that. Like for as much as the trust 206 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: the process has become annoying from the six Ers side, 207 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: I do think that you have to keep in mind 208 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 1: that you shouldn't We shouldn't retroactively fit backs to what 209 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: the results were. We should look at it and say 210 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: what's the most accurate path to say this? And I 211 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 1: think ultimately, if the Warriors win or lose, a lot 212 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: of this will be determined by who hit shots, how 213 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: the team teams perform how healthy both teams are able 214 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: to be. These are two really good teams. I'm hoping 215 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: we get a good finals after a not great playoffs. 216 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: I've enjoyed the playoffs even though they haven't necessarily great 217 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: because I don't love great basketball. I love terrible basketball. 218 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: That's my brand now onto Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest 219 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. 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It's so much more robust than we get 250 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 1: in any other really series. We can talk about finals 251 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: MVP at the end of the show, but I do 252 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: want to kind of ask you about right now, what 253 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: are some scoring rebounds, some actual just like player props 254 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,199 Speaker 1: with the series that you think you can find value 255 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: on Right now? 256 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I know, you know, Steph Curry is the 257 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 3: odds on favorite to win MVP. He's also the odds 258 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 3: on favorite to hit the most three pointers in the series. 259 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,559 Speaker 3: And I don't really think that there's that much value 260 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 3: on Curry at minus one twenty The guy I'm looking 261 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 3: at is Klay Thompson. He's at plus four twenty five, 262 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 3: which is a nineteen percent probability of success here, And 263 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 3: you know, I think that's way too low, considering that 264 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 3: if you look in the playoffs, play's averaging three point 265 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 3: sixty three pointers made per game, and if you look 266 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 3: at Curry, he's a smidge higher at three point eight. 267 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 3: But if you look at this defense and the way 268 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 3: that the Celtics have made it hard for Steph Curry 269 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 3: to score, I mean, he's only shooting twenty nine percent 270 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 3: in his career when guarded by Marcus Smart, according to 271 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 3: Second Spectrum, and the war is also at the second 272 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 3: worst offensive efficiency rating when Smart guards Curry. So, you know, 273 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 3: we talked about it in the last series. You know, 274 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 3: we expected the Mavericks to kind of blitz Curry. They 275 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 3: did to the best of their extent, and we saw 276 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 3: a little bit of an increase in Curry's assists. I 277 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 3: don't think I think his efficiency's going to continue to 278 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: struggle here. He's going to have to get the ball 279 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 3: out of his hands. This defense is feisty. I think 280 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 3: we'll see more open looks for Klay Thompson and more 281 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 3: opportunities for him to hit from some three pointers. So 282 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 3: I want to get your thoughts on that. Being that 283 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 3: Clay is plus four twenty five. 284 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: I love it. I think that's great. Highest scoring performance 285 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: is one that I'm looking at along these same lines 286 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: as ties into what you're talking about. Klay Thompson's on 287 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: the one there, I think I'm probably gonna take that 288 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: game six baby, And so that's like builds in my 289 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: head for Celtics and six Sotally, I think you're right. 290 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: So a lot of this is if you told me 291 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: to build a defense to guard Steph Curry. Specifically, it's 292 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: Boston because the Mavericks switched everything, but they did it 293 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,199 Speaker 1: on ball. They were not prepared for the off ball stuff. 294 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: And if you've watched these games throughout the years, the 295 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 1: last during the Tata Mara right seventeen eighteen through under 296 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 1: Brad Stevens and now under Emanadoka, they are just excellent 297 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 1: at being able to handle those switches. I think that 298 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: what they will do a lot with Marcus Smart Steph 299 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: Curry's eight of twenty nine over the last five years, 300 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: when Marcus Smart's contesting, I think that there will be 301 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 1: times when they're just gonna sit when Smart's going to 302 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: be like, no switch, no switch, I got it, and 303 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: he'll try and get around those screens to contest. And 304 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 1: he's one of the only players in NBA that I 305 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 1: would trust to do so if he is a step behind, 306 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: he'll call out and set you know, whatever the call 307 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: out is to switch on to Steph coming around those 308 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: screens a spot up. I do think that on some 309 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: level the number one priority, you know, the question is 310 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: always liked you let a guy get his and shut 311 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: down everybody else? Or do you and Steph is so 312 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: explosive that you honestly think the Celtics will start Line 313 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: one of the scouting report will be about what they're 314 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: going to do with Steph on ball and what they're 315 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: going to do with stuff off ball, and like line 316 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: three is, Okay, here's what we have to worry about 317 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: on short role opportunities with Draymond or Klay Thompson and 318 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: these types of things. So for me, I think that 319 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: there is there's real value on taking anybody else except Curry. 320 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: Let me put it this way. If you think Steph 321 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 1: Curry is going to make the most threes, if you 322 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: think Steph Curry is going to average the most points, 323 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: if you think Steph Curry is going to have this 324 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: monster series, you need to be betting Warriors minus one 325 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: and a half. Like you need to be on that 326 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: bet for Warriors to win in less than in less 327 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: than seven games, because if that's the case, that means 328 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: Boston's defense has broken down. This means the best defense 329 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: in the NBA over the last six months has had 330 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: significant issues with accomplishing their game plan. So that to 331 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 1: me is the starting points. Like instead of taking these 332 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: these tighter numbers on Steph, just get more aggressive on 333 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: the Warriors, because if that's what you think is going 334 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: to happen, then you think that Steph Curry is going 335 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: to have a monster series and this isn't going to 336 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: go along, and you should bet you know, Steph for 337 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: Finals MVP at a minus number probably, but also just 338 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: like take the Warriors in less than seven games because 339 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: most of the numbers are built for those seven game outcomes. 340 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. I love that angle, And you're exactly right. 341 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 3: All this kind of correlates, right, So you're putting together 342 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 3: this formula for how you think that the outcome is 343 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 3: going to generate, so you can work in your little 344 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 3: hedges here and there. But I think that that's a 345 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 3: great idea packaging that with the Warriors minus one and 346 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 3: a half. Assuming that you think that Steph is going 347 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 3: to not you, but the audience assumes that he's going 348 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 3: to have one of these, you know, memorable type of 349 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 3: series where he's going to be knocking down threes, Boston 350 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 3: can't stop them. That's gonna that's going to be the 351 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 3: solution for the Warriors to to get this done in 352 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 3: more than in one and a half games. 353 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 2: Right. 354 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: What you like for rebounds? What's the rebound props that 355 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: you like to this year? 356 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, so rebounds, I'm gonna go a little bit more square, 357 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 3: But I really like Al Horford at plus one thirty five. 358 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: He's averaging nine point six in the playoffs and he's 359 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 3: posted double digit rebounds in six of his last eight games. 360 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 3: The reason I like Al Horford more than Kevon Looney, 361 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 3: who is the odds on favorite right now as well 362 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 3: as some other ones, is because I think he's going 363 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 3: to be on the floor no. 364 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 2: Matter what this scheme is for Boston. 365 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 3: If you know, we talked, I think you guys talked 366 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 3: about it on buckets. But as this series wears on, 367 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 3: potentially the formula for the Warriors, they're want to go smaller. 368 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 3: You know, they're going to try to attack Robert Williams 369 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 3: as best they can on the perimeter because you know, 370 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 3: perimeter defense not his best, not as strong suit for 371 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 3: as great of a defensive player he is, He's really 372 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 3: a rim protector, great offensive and defensive rebounder. But if 373 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 3: you stretch him out, that's where there's some vulnerabilities there. 374 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 3: But Al Horford can actually guard the perimeter, and I 375 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 3: think he's going to be one of these guys that's 376 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 3: going to see, you know, upwards of thirty five minutes 377 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 3: per game in the NBA Finals. So you know, I 378 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 3: think that there's some certainly some value left there for 379 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 3: Al Horford at plus one thirty five. But the dark 380 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 3: horse going to that same assumption that as the series 381 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: wears on, the Warriors decide to go smaller, there could 382 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 3: be some value on Draymond Green at plus nine hundred, 383 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 3: mainly because of that small ball lineup, and we know 384 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 3: that Draymond Green has shown out in the NBA Finals before, 385 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 3: he's been kind of sandbagging. He hasn't been playing his 386 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 3: best ball over the last two series. But I think 387 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 3: this is one of those moments where you could really 388 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 3: see him reinvigorate his defense and his hustle and see 389 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 3: him really crashing the boards here. He has a few 390 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 3: games where he's had, you know, over ten rebounds, but 391 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 3: I think they're going to need him more in that 392 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 3: post protecting against the Celtics and their front court Abal 393 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 3: Horford and Robert Williams. 394 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: So I have a little bit of a longer shot 395 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: here to take on this. So for the Warriors, their 396 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: leader in rebounds per game, as you mentioned, was Kevon 397 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: Looney in the playoffs so far at seven point seven, 398 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: and that's only in twenty minutes per games. So if 399 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 1: Kavan plays heavy minutes in the series, likely that he 400 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: winds up racking him. I think you're right that they'll 401 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: probably wind up going smaller. I think it's I tend 402 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: to think of it less as like a going small 403 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 1: and more of a curve will keep the big lineup 404 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: as the curveball to throw at them. I think he'll start, 405 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: and I think he'll still throw out there to take 406 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: advantage on the offensive glass. We've seen that in various series, 407 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: especially versus Denver. They really like once you go small, 408 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: that's when Golden State wants to hit you with offensive rebounding. 409 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: But look, if Looney's at seven point seven per game, 410 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 1: and he's playing way more minutes at twenty, but if 411 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: we still expect him to play less than thirty minutes 412 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 1: a game, Wiggins at thirty three minutes a game is 413 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 1: at seven rebounds per game. Seven. Yeah, and I think 414 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: that there's a good chance that Wiggins is going to 415 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: wind up playing like forty minutes in the series. And 416 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: he's a guy I think that they will keep on 417 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: the floor for both the defensive and offensive purposes. A 418 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: lot of where this gets confused on rebounding is it's 419 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: internally because this is where like my focus on the 420 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: schemes I do think really comes into play of Look, 421 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: if you switch everything, then by the very nature of 422 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 1: that program, you're trying to get the bigs out of 423 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: the paint. So the bigs are further away from the basket, 424 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 1: So that's where your wings, because of their ability to 425 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: cover more ground, has a real opportunity to get those 426 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: kind of chances. Wiggins rebounds per game mark and minus 427 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: one ten is just six. It's six per game at 428 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: draft games for when he's averaged seven in these playoffs. 429 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: So they're basically marketing that the Celtics are going to 430 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: be able to lower his rebounding. That doesn't necessarily make 431 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,719 Speaker 1: any sense when you look at who's likely to be 432 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: defending him and who's likely to be matched up on him. 433 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: I like Wiggins, like I'm hoping that we can. I'm 434 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 1: gonna be on I'll tell you right now. I'm on points, rebounds, 435 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: points and rebounds over for game one for Wiggins. I 436 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 1: think that that's a really great spot and I'll be 437 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 1: looking at that consistently throughout the series because I think 438 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: switching defense, much as it was with Dallas, that opens 439 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: up chances for Wiggins. He's gonna play a lot of 440 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: minutes because of the matchup, and I think they'll probably 441 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 1: guard him with Jalen Brown a lot, and Jalen Brown 442 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 1: has honestly been the defensive week spot for Golden State. 443 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: So like Wiggins, to me, is a guy that it's 444 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: not about like this gets into like how good of 445 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: a player you are or whatever. For me, it's like 446 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: Wiggins is going to get opportunity versus worst defenders in 447 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: a matchup of advantage in minutes, and that that combo 448 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: to me means there's a lot of value on it. 449 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: But I like the overall lot on wiggins rebounds per 450 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: game at six and I'll probably sprinkle on him to 451 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: lead the lead, the lead the season, the series rather 452 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: in rebounds. 453 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 2: I like that eighty to one. 454 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 3: I mean, that's the longest shot that that's currently available 455 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,879 Speaker 3: on the market. And I get your your justification is 456 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 3: definitely worthwhile because, as you said, if you're gonna be switching, 457 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 3: there's gonna be more variants for others to get those rebounds. 458 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:37,360 Speaker 3: It may not be the bigs that are just kind 459 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 3: of standing idly at the basket here. 460 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,360 Speaker 2: So and Wiggins has been phenomenal. 461 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 3: I was hammering his rebound props throughout the all playoffs, 462 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 3: as they've been said, around that five and a half 463 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 3: to six and a half depending on the series. So yeah, 464 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 3: I think there's certainly value there on his rebounds per 465 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 3: game at six. 466 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 2: That seems like a steal at even money. 467 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: You got any other props or are we gonna move 468 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:58,120 Speaker 1: on to finals MVP? 469 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I got another one. Top assists. 470 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 3: I'm going with Marcus Smart plus three hundred at three 471 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 3: to one. I think there's there's still value there to 472 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 3: be had the average eight versus the Dubs in the 473 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 3: regular season, he's at six point two in the playoffs. 474 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 3: I think his main competition here is probably going to 475 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 3: be Draymond Green, as he's the odds on favorite. But 476 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 3: you know, I think Marcus Smart has ever since the 477 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 3: Boston Celtics made him the true point guard of this 478 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 3: team and really just the facilitator. We saw them go 479 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 3: in this ridiculous run to close out the season, and 480 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,160 Speaker 3: you know, now they're in the finals. So I think 481 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 3: with the way that the Warriors will match up on him, 482 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 3: he'll have opportunities to get others involved like he he 483 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 3: is the engine of this offense. I think Jason Tatum 484 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 3: is also a little bit intriguing. We see his assists 485 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,640 Speaker 3: kind of rise over the course of the last two series. 486 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 3: But I'm gonna trust in the point guard here to 487 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 3: get it done, and at three to one, I think 488 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 3: that he is a he's going to be on the court, 489 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 3: you know, paying well more than you know thirty minutes, 490 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 3: and he's gonna have the ball in his hands a lot. 491 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 3: And I looking at his potential assists, I think there's 492 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 3: a lot of opportunity here for for him to lead 493 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 3: this series and assists. 494 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's an interesting question because the switching 495 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: style is that by necessity is going to try and 496 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: limit those of this opportunities, Like you don't have to 497 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 1: there's no helps, You're trying to find these open guys. 498 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,959 Speaker 1: I think the pace, though, might be really key to this, 499 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: because both teams are going to look at this matchup. 500 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why I lean towards the overs. 501 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: Like DraftKings also has they have the points per game 502 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 1: mark for both teams, and it's honestly pretty low for 503 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 1: both squads. And I'm very much considering, like I'd like 504 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: to be able to just like parlay them together, but 505 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: the Draft DK is not gonna let me let me 506 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: do that. But like the idea, I think it's fascinating 507 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,639 Speaker 1: because Boston's at one O five and a half and 508 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 1: the Warriors are one of six, right, Like I think 509 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: this is gonna be a fast paced series, and I 510 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a transition based series where both 511 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: teams are like, look, we can't beat their their set 512 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 1: half court defense. It's too tough. We've got to get 513 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 1: out and get them off kelter a little bit in 514 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 1: mid transition, a few weird matchups, and we're going to 515 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 1: have to attack them that way. That's what Boston did 516 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: versus the Heat when they were when they played better. 517 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,439 Speaker 1: When they slowed it down, they really struggled because that 518 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: offense has has issues. I think both teams will want 519 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 1: to try and get up and down the floor, so 520 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: I think we're going to see higher scoring series. And 521 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: as such, I think there's a higher capacity for assists, 522 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 1: so I like that play as well. I think that 523 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: you're right that he's gonna have the ball, he's gonna 524 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 1: have these opportunities. You're also going to have, I think 525 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: when they do double because they have both these teams 526 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: have shown the capacity a little bit to try and 527 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 1: blitz the ball handler because they trust in their rotations. 528 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 1: But if there's any opportunities, it's blitz, kickout secondary pass 529 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 1: for the assist, and that's where I think Marcus Marrowers 530 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,919 Speaker 1: is a triggerman in those situations, So I like that 531 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 1: pick as well. I think you got good value in 532 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 1: both of those spots. Let's talk about Finals MVP. So 533 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: I've made the case in like eighteen different places against 534 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: Steph Curry, which to the point that I'm just like, 535 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 1: he's obviously gonna win, Like he's just gonna win. And 536 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 1: because I've made this case too many times, I just 537 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 1: can't get beyond the idea of just as we talked 538 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: about earlier, I think the Celtics are gonna this is 539 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,359 Speaker 1: gonna the best defense in the league is gonna make 540 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: stopping Steph Curry the number one priority. Like you, if 541 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: Steph Curry doesn't have a good game, your odds of 542 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 1: winning the series or that any particular game way way up. 543 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: And if Steph hurt Curry has a massive game, your 544 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 1: odds of winning go way way down like Kurry. And 545 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: on top of this, my thought process on Finals MVP, 546 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: because I was just on with Ken and Ken was 547 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: talking about how you know, it's always just been the 548 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 1: best player on the winning team. Yeah, well, one got 549 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: I've got Celtics, But two, it's always been the engine, 550 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 1: Like Giannis has the ball in his hands all the time, 551 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 1: and Lebron has the ball in his hands all the time, 552 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 1: and Kawhi Leonard In you know, uh, Dirk Noovitski and 553 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 1: like all these guys have always been like the hub 554 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 1: of the offense. Curry's not the hub. Draymond's the hub. 555 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 1: The system is the hub. Curry is the tip of 556 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:05,359 Speaker 1: the spear. And Curry could obviously if Curry just like 557 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: is catching and firing and hitting versus great contest, if 558 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 1: he just has an all time one of those series, right, 559 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 1: then for sure Steph Curry can win at a minus number. 560 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: We have never seen that in the NBA Finals from him. 561 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: His series have always been like good, Not that Steph 562 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: Curry sucks in the NBA Finals. It's that it's always 563 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 1: been like, no, yeah, Curry was good, but not like 564 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 1: you know, who's great? That answer has always been somebody else, right, 565 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: And so that's why I get to I can't find 566 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: value on Curry, which is why I'm on Klay Thompson, 567 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: Jason Tatum with a sprinkle on Al Horford. An absurd 568 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 1: number of those to me, are like the best values 569 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 1: for finals MVP. 570 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we didn't collaborate before coming on here today. 571 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 3: And literally the two names that I had sitting right 572 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 3: next to besides not betting on Curry was Jason Tatum 573 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 3: at plus one seventy five. I have him as my 574 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,400 Speaker 3: hedge to my Warriors pick, but then also Klay Thompson 575 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,360 Speaker 3: at fourteen to one. Much of what you said, it's 576 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 3: about those big moments and if Steph, I think you 577 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 3: can argue that when andre Igadalo won one MVP, that 578 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 3: was the one opportunity that they probably could have given 579 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 3: it to Steph and they didn't. But you know, if 580 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 3: he has one of those types of series where you know, 581 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 3: the Warriors just played well as a basketball team, you know, 582 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 3: I think Klay Thompson could be have that upside that 583 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 3: kind of wins over the media if he goes for 584 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 3: like forty points in Game six, like he's you know, 585 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 3: he's averaging twenty eight in game six for the course 586 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 3: of his postseason career, So you know, there could be 587 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 3: moments where Clay shines, you know, hits nine ten threes 588 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 3: or whatever, and that kind of steals the shine away 589 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,959 Speaker 3: from Steph. So I think that variability of like, you know, 590 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 3: just how good this Warrior's team and how unselfish they 591 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,360 Speaker 3: can be, I think certainly opens the door for other 592 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 3: players to potentially take home this award. And if you 593 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 3: go to the Celtics side, you know, if they win, 594 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 3: I totally agree it's going to be because Jason Tatum 595 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 3: had the ball in his hand, he made the big shots, 596 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 3: he got the clutch moments, you know. And what's interesting 597 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,399 Speaker 3: is that the Boston Celtics haven't been good in clutch 598 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 3: time in the postseason or the regular season, so you 599 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 3: know it's going to be really this is going to 600 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 3: be the changing of the guard moment. If the Celtics win, 601 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 3: it's going to be off the strength of Tatum. I'm 602 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 3: actually betting the under on sidebar. I'm betting the under 603 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,800 Speaker 3: on Jalen Brown twenty four and a half points per game, 604 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 3: mainly because he doesn't play well that well against the 605 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 3: against the Warriors. And I can go on that another day, 606 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 3: but I really like Jason Tatum at plus one seventy 607 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,880 Speaker 3: five and Klaytopson at fourteen to one. 608 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, Jalen I think has faced favorable secondary matchups because 609 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 1: of who was guarding you know, whoever in these other series, right, 610 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 1: and so I think this is like a really tough 611 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 1: I think this is a tough series for him play Thompson, 612 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 1: Gary Payton. The second is back, yep Igodals should be back, 613 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 1: you know, yeah, maybe yeah, I'll probably have some minutes 614 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 1: if the curve feels like he's got to put Jordan 615 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: pull out there. If he needs the offense, maybe Brown 616 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 1: can get Pool switched on him and attack him a 617 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: little bit. But the turnovers have been a real issue, 618 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 1: and they will bring help, Like the Warriors will see 619 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 1: that and they will bring help to disrupt that dribble. 620 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 1: I just I like Jayalen brand Allow as a player, 621 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 1: but I think for as many good scoring performances as 622 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,479 Speaker 1: he's been as he's had, I still think that Golden 623 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 1: State is a very good defensive matchup against him. They 624 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: should be able to have success. So should be a 625 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 1: great finals. We're excited to cover it hero with the 626 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 1: Action Network. That's going to wrap it up for the 627 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. My thanks to Dan Titus for joining 628 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: me and for producing this episode both. He gets the 629 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 1: double the work. I pulled him in double the work 630 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 1: on this episode. Baby, Yeah, there you go. We did 631 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 1: manage do it in good time though, which is always 632 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 1: a plus. Uh. We'll be back for you later this 633 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 1: week with I'm sure we'll have NFL coverage as well 634 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: as the NHL Playoffs from the crew. Keep it here 635 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast. Make sure to download and 636 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: check out buckets if you want more coverage of the 637 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: NBA Finals. Thanks for joining us, everybody on the Action 638 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:11,240 Speaker 1: Network Podcast