1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 2: So our top story today is the meeting, the high 7 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 2: stakes meeting unfolding at the White House. The European leaders 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 2: are already there and we are moments away from the 9 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 2: Ukrainian President Zelensky from arriving. If you're joining us on 10 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: radio right now, we have a picture up it shows 11 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 2: the honor guard flanking the entrance into the Oval Office 12 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: as we wait for this meeting to begin. And joining 13 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 2: us now with the view from the White House is 14 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson, a senior editor for here who covers 15 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: all things Washington for US, and Wendy, I want to 16 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: start right here because the last time that Zelensky was 17 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: in the office, it didn't go so well. That didn't 18 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: go heeding ended up devolving, there was a shouting match, 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 2: it ended earlier. What are we expecting from today? How 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 2: could this be different from what we saw the last 21 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: time Zelenski was there first. 22 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 3: This time he sort of brought back up with him, 23 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 3: which is most of the leaders of Western Europe. They 24 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 3: will not be in the meeting with him. They're having 25 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 3: a separate brief meeting with President Trump afterwards. But also 26 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,839 Speaker 3: this will be a chance for Zelensky to finally really 27 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 3: get a sense of what happened in Alaska last Friday 28 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 3: and find out whether any of these terms are even 29 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 3: wildly acceptable to him. I mean, what we believe right 30 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 3: now is that what Zelensky will be presented with is 31 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 3: an impossible choice to give up territory, which the Ukrainian 32 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: Constitution forbids and is politically and every other way bad 33 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 3: for Ukraine in exchange for some vague security guarantees that 34 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 3: Steve Woodkoff laid out on the Sunday Shows yesterday, some 35 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 3: Article five like guarantees but no NATO membership, which these 36 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 3: are what Putin wants. And Trump tweeted this morning or 37 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 3: made a social media post this morning that it's now 38 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 3: in Zelenski's court. So who knows, it could end up 39 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 3: devolving into a shouting match again, but we hope not. 40 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 4: Wendy, you were on the story all weekend long, and 41 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 4: thank you for your efforts of course on that. But 42 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 4: tell us how it's evolved since Friday, since the meeting 43 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 4: between the two leaders. The storyline seems to have shifted 44 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 4: and what e merge seemed to have shifted and reshaped 45 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 4: and maybe was reframed on the Sunday shows and even 46 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 4: into this morning. 47 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 3: Talk about that evolution, sure, and still not a lot 48 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 3: of clarity because they, as you know, on Friday, they 49 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 3: had a news commerce where they didn't really say anything, 50 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 3: took no questions, each one to their respective capitals. And 51 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 3: then on Saturday, Steve Whitcoff, the Special Envoy to Russia, 52 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: played golf with Trump. We didn't hear anything from really 53 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 3: either of them. Then on the Sunday shows, Witkoff comes 54 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 3: out and announces this security guarantee plan as if it 55 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 3: were a done deal. What is strange in the arc 56 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 3: of presidencies, but sort of typical for this administration. Marco Rubio, 57 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 3: the Secretary of State, who was also in the room 58 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 3: with Whitcoff and Trump and Putin, came out with a 59 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 3: completely different story on different networks saying that this is 60 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 3: in no way a done deal, that this is something 61 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 3: the President might decide, and of course we might want 62 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 3: to ask Vladimir Zelenski about it, and it's all very undone. 63 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 3: So now again the ball is in, as I said, 64 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 3: in Zelenski's core to kind of take this plan or 65 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 3: leave it, and then we have to see how Europe responds. 66 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad that you mentioned Europe because of course 67 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 2: we should talk about some of the optics that we're 68 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 2: seeing play out here today, because some of these leaders, 69 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 2: I think it's fair to say President Trump has a 70 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 2: relatively warmer relationship with right I'm thinking about the UK 71 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: Prime Minister cre Stormer, the first to inc a trade 72 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 2: to deal with the US. The Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney, 73 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 2: one of the first European leaders invited to the White 74 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: House after President Trump's inauguration. How could that potentially temper 75 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 2: what we see happen here at the Oval Office to. 76 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 5: Well, I think. 77 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 3: And Mark Ruta, the NATO Secretary General who Trump is 78 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 3: also has a pretty good relationship with the rest. Not 79 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 3: so much, I think we should say, but they it 80 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 3: sort of depends, I think, on whether they were able 81 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 3: to help him or talk to him before the meeting, 82 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 3: or whether they what they're going to hear after the meeting. 83 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 3: I think, you know, Trump is one of those leaders 84 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,039 Speaker 3: who often listens to the last person he spoke to, 85 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 3: and so we'll see how it goes with them. 86 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 5: After the meeting. 87 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: They're all going to have a family photo, they'll all 88 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 3: be smiling, and then they're all going home tonight, so 89 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 3: we may. I'm sure we'll hear from them as the 90 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 3: evening wears on, and I'm pretty confident we'll hear from 91 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 3: the President as well, and we'll just have to see again, 92 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 3: how's the landscape back of all. 93 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 4: Of this, Wendy, Do we have any sense of what 94 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 4: the next steps after today might look like? Would they 95 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 4: be proceeding to another meeting with Vladimir Putin? 96 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 3: Yes, that's what Trump and I think Putin we're hoping 97 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 3: for after this meeting is to set up within a 98 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 3: week a trilateral meeting among the three of them, Trump, Putin, 99 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 3: and Zelenski. Those meetings are usually take a lot longer 100 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 3: to set up because the staff has to pregame what's 101 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,679 Speaker 3: going to happen and what is everything is just left 102 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 3: to be signed. But the way these guys are operating 103 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 3: this time, they're going to decide in a room on 104 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 3: the spot so we could see that meeting as soon 105 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 3: as next week. 106 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 4: That was Wendy Benjaminson. Wendy, thank you so much for 107 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 4: joining us today on balance of power. We're now joined 108 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 4: by Rebecca Grant, who is the vice president of the 109 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 4: Lexington Institute and an expert in the areas of Russia 110 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 4: and Ukraine. Rebecca, thank you so much for joining us. 111 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 4: We want to get into this whole question of the 112 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 4: security guarantees and whether this is something that would be 113 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 4: toothsome enough to get Ukraine to actually come to the 114 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 4: bargaining table with Russia, and what one of these security 115 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: get what these security guarantees would have to look like 116 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:10,799 Speaker 4: from their point of view. 117 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 6: Yes, the security guarantees are Zelenski's number one concern, And 118 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 6: of course the most interesting item we've heard is the 119 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 6: potential Article five style guarantee between several European nations and 120 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 6: maybe the US and Ukraine that, as you know, in 121 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 6: NATO's Article five is the mutual self defense part of this. 122 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 6: But the reality is that this security guarantee is going 123 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 6: to take not only the pledges, but a lot of weapons, 124 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 6: most of which Trump already has in the works, so 125 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 6: two Patriot batteries from Germany going down to Ukraine, the 126 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 6: continued sale of US weapons, the participation of NATO partners, 127 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 6: because there will still be a nearly eight hundred mile 128 00:06:56,040 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 6: front to defend, to contain Russia, and then also to 129 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 6: contain Russia's activities in the Black Sea, where Ukraine has 130 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 6: done a fantastic job. So expect a lot of military 131 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 6: hardware to be in the mix for these security guarantees. 132 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 2: Well, Rebecca, earlier this year we saw the United Kingdom 133 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 2: and also France proposed this idea that there would be 134 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 2: some sort of security guarantee led by Europe but then 135 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: backed up by the United States, and that could include 136 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 2: reassurance forces, air cover, things like that. Is that where 137 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 2: you see this sort of guarantee trending towards or could 138 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 2: we see perhaps a more wide ranging one like the 139 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 2: one that Mike was talking about, something similar to Article 140 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 2: five without actual NATO membership. 141 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 6: I would say all of the above, and you're so 142 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 6: smart to raise the airpiece because this security guarantee in 143 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 6: operation will have to be what the military calls multi domain. 144 00:07:55,520 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 6: So Ukraine already shares NATO cyber awareness, and of course 145 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 6: Elon musk is you starlink there, But this is going 146 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 6: to take a lot of air power as well. Britain 147 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 6: and France have talked about potentially putting peacekeepers on the ground, 148 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 6: which really gets Putin's back up. But if there is 149 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 6: some territory to be traded, the number one job will 150 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 6: be making sure that that is done in a safe 151 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 6: and secure manner. As Russian forces and Ukrainian forces retrograde 152 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 6: in the battle space, so I wouldn't be surprised to 153 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 6: see some peacekeeping observers or forces there on the ground. 154 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,319 Speaker 6: But longer term, this is really going to be about 155 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 6: air defense, cyber domain control, and of course controlling that 156 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 6: landfront and keeping the Russian fleet bottled up in the 157 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 6: Black Sea, which Ukraine has done so well. 158 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 4: Rebecca, do you see the US taking any direct role 159 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 4: in enforcing those security guarantees, say, with boots on the ground. 160 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 4: The President and Steve Witcloff indicated a little bit more 161 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 4: openness to this, but it's unclear whether that would be 162 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 4: more than an advisory role. What's your take on it. 163 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 6: Well, first off, that will be up to President Zolensky, 164 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 6: who for the record, has never requested US or NATO 165 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 6: boots on the ground. The US role here will be 166 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 6: absolutely essential in overall command and control and playing a 167 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 6: role in training of Ukrainian forces, which we've already seen 168 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 6: NATO and the US partners do. What the specifics of 169 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 6: it look like, you know, that's going to be yet 170 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 6: another thing for Zolensky to decide, because he will have 171 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 6: to invite any forces into his country. 172 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 2: And Rebecca, we went from hearing talks go from a 173 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 2: ceasefire to talks that they want a full piece deal. 174 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 2: We had Secretary of State Mark or Rubio over the 175 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 2: weekend in an interview say that one of the problems 176 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 2: with a ceasefire approach is that a ceasefire has to 177 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 2: be maintained, and it doesn't seem like Russia is coming 178 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: to the table in a meaningful way to agree to 179 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 2: a cea fire or pause in the fighting. What's the 180 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 2: strategic reason here to push for a finalized deal for 181 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 2: going a ceasefire? Is this creating urgency or is this 182 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 2: Russia just buying time at this point? 183 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 6: Well, best case, I think because the ceasefires just haven't worked. 184 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 6: You know, we've been close to ceasefires a couple times 185 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 6: this spring and then there went Putent unleashing you know, 186 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 6: five hundred drones and his Scander missiles right back into Ukraine, 187 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 6: like Ukraine shooting them down. But that was a big 188 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 6: reversal coming out of Alaska, and I think Trump is 189 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 6: seeing there is momentum for an actual possible piece deal, 190 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 6: and I think Rubio was very realistic about how tough 191 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 6: this is all going to be, but they're willing to 192 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 6: try for that whole piece deal at this point. 193 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 5: And then, of course, the issue, like you said. 194 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 6: Is will Russia truly respect it when they tell them to, hey. 195 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 5: Stop shooting Rebecca. 196 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 4: What does success look like from today for European leaders 197 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 4: and then for Volodomir Selenski as they go to meet 198 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 4: with Donald Trump. 199 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 6: Well, for Europe it's just one thing, and that is 200 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 6: to deter Russia. Russia has rearmed, they're on track to 201 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 6: replace all their losses in Ukraine, and Putin has that 202 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 6: economy on a wartime footing with the one hundred percent 203 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 6: back of China, which is terrible. So the Europeans, no 204 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 6: matter what comes out of this meeting or the. 205 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 5: Peace process, Europe will be defending against Russia and Putin 206 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 5: for the long term. 207 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 6: So they want to make sure that Ukraine can be 208 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 6: a viable part of that defense for Ukraine a viable state, 209 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 6: a viable economy, sovereignty and a pathboard. I'd like to 210 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 6: see every Russian out of Ukraine. But we're really hearing 211 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 6: that that de facto line of control will be. 212 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 2: There right exactly, Rebecca. And as you're speaking for our 213 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 2: radio listeners and those joining us on Bloomberg Television, we're 214 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 2: seeing the Ukrainian President Zelenski get out of his car, 215 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 2: shake President Trump's hand. Let's listen and. 216 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 4: Well of Ukraine as world leaders gathered here today, Rossi continues, 217 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 4: Roussia continuers, he was a latagila to Donald Hartig killing Verdi. 218 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: Be very young to the title. 219 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 2: All right, That was Ukrainian President Zelenski pulling up to 220 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 2: the White House shaking President Trump's hand. He was asked 221 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 2: what his message was to the people of Ukraine, and 222 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 2: President Trump responded, quote, we love them. Of course, this 223 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 2: is a big, big day. It's hard to underestimate how 224 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 2: high stakes this meeting is. As now, Ukrainian President Zelenski 225 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 2: is inside the White House mike alongside half a dozen 226 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: European leaders who have also traveled here to Washington on 227 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: short notice to show their support. 228 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 4: It was notable that President Donald Trump only came out 229 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 4: of the White House to greet Voladimir Zelensky. The other 230 00:12:55,920 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 4: European leaders were agreeded by other administration official as their 231 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 4: cars pulled up, at least from what we could see outside. 232 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 4: And really the stakes could not be higher, especially for 233 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 4: Volodimir Zelenski, who is viewing this moment is perhaps an 234 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:13,719 Speaker 4: existential one for his. 235 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 2: Country, really important moment. And Rebecca, I want to bring 236 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: you back into this conversation as now the leaders are 237 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: there at the White House, they are getting these talks underway. 238 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 2: I'd love to get your perspective here on those other 239 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 2: leaders that are there. Beyond the Ukrainian President Zelenski, we 240 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 2: have some that President Trump has relatively warm relations with, 241 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 2: as we've been discussing here on balance of power, like 242 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 2: the Italian Prime Minister Georgia Maloney, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutta. 243 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: What do you make of the optics now that we 244 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 2: have all of these European allies in the same room 245 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 2: for these discussions. 246 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 5: Bigger than the Alaska summit. 247 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 6: Look at the ceremony, the location in the Capitol and 248 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 6: these leaders. 249 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 5: I'm very impressed. 250 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 6: We see kir Starmer from Britain who has Britain has 251 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 6: led the way all along in support for Ukraine and 252 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 6: in green lighting the use of longer range weapons. Emmanuel 253 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 6: macronderry central of course Fredrick Mrse very important, as I mentioned, 254 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 6: German Ukrainian German Patriot batteries going down to Ukraine. 255 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 5: These are the European power players. 256 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 6: Very important that we have Finland's President Stubb there as well. 257 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 6: That's a long border between Finland and Russia. Finland would 258 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 6: never have joined NATO without this arising Russian threat that 259 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 6: they've seen and changing that policy of neutrality. 260 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 5: So these are the players. And along with Italy and Georgia. 261 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 6: Maloney and of course Mark Rutta, former Prime Minister of 262 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 6: the Netherlands, so smart in keeping this group together, and 263 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 6: he's the NATO Secretary General that got NATO to five percent. 264 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 6: These are the European power players. Putin is watching shijiping 265 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 6: in China is Russian because all those leaders know that 266 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 6: shijiping cannot be trusted either. They know who's responsible for 267 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 6: keeping Russia in this war. 268 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 5: So this is the group that can give Ukraine. 269 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 6: The security guarantees the economic deals and for true powerful 270 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 6: deterrence against Russia going forward. 271 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 5: It's the right players. 272 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 4: In the room, Rebecca, when it comes to actually reaching 273 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 4: some sort of a final deal. Donald Trump has floated 274 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 4: this idea of lands swaps and giving back some territory 275 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 4: to giving some territory over to Russia that Russia has 276 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 4: taken from Ukraine. In what universe do you see Voladimir 277 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 4: Zelenski actually accepting that as part of these discussions, either 278 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 4: now or down the road. 279 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 6: Yeah, maybe the universe that has convened there in the 280 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 6: White House, Mark Rotha has talked about it as though 281 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 6: it's a de facto recognition, but not a dijury. 282 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 5: You know, that will still. 283 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 6: Be recognized as part of Ukraine, but under Russian control. 284 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 6: Nobody likes this, but there we are the most painful part, 285 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 6: possibly if they are asked to give up territory in 286 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 6: Danetsk Province that Ukraine has held, such as the city 287 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 6: of Kramatorsk. But we are looking at this as a possibility. 288 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 6: I think it does put Zelenski in a tough position. 289 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 6: But remind you of two things. One, he was elected 290 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 6: in twenty nineteen to try to bring about a peace 291 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 6: agreement after the twenty fourteen invasion and the continued fighting 292 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 6: and loss of life there. And also it's very important 293 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 6: now to think about rebuilding Ukraine. 294 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 5: And Trump is put together. 295 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 6: I think what he has called a really good deal, 296 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 6: this should be an excellent deal, and I hope it's 297 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 6: enough that Dolenski can take it. And as they say 298 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 6: in the war, at the negotiating table rather than on 299 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 6: the battlefield. 300 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 4: Rebecca granted, Lexington Institute. We thank you for your time. 301 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 302 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 303 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 304 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 305 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 306 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 307 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 308 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: We've been listening to your President Trump in the Oval 309 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 2: Office alongside Ukrainian President Zelenski for a high stakes meeting 310 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 2: here in Washington. This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg 311 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 2: Television and Radio. I'm Tyler Kendall alongside Bloomberg's Michael Sheppard 312 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 2: in Washington. Joe Matthew is off our top story today, 313 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 2: this big meeting in the Oval Office. The pair started 314 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 2: their remarks by shaking each other's hands. A much warmer 315 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: reception than we saw the last time that Zelenski was 316 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,679 Speaker 2: in the Oval Office earlier this year, and for our 317 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 2: radio listeners, Zelensky was wearing a suit. We mentioned it 318 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 2: because that was something that was a point of contention 319 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 2: the last time he was at the White House and 320 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 2: perhaps will be a memorable visual from today's meeting. Now. 321 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 2: President Trump said that if everything works out today, there 322 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 2: will be a trilateral meeting coming as soon that would 323 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 2: be between the Ukrainian President Zelenski, President Trump, and Russian 324 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 2: President Vladimir Putin, saying that there's a quote reasonable chance 325 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 2: of ending the war if that meeting happens. 326 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 5: Now, Mike. 327 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 2: On security guarantees, which is one of the top issues today, 328 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 2: President Trump said that the US will be involved, but 329 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 2: he declined to give specifics on exactly what that would 330 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 2: look like. 331 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, he was reluctant to get any further about what 332 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 4: those security guarantees would look like. We did hear from 333 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 4: some of his advisors over the weekend about the possible shape, 334 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 4: but again how much money that would involve, would it 335 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 4: involve US advisors on the ground, and of course his counterpart, 336 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 4: Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelenski sitting alongside. Obviously a very different 337 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 4: dynamic to this meeting today, Kyler than Tyler than the 338 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 4: one we saw several months ago, the meeting that really 339 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 4: just devolved into almost a shouting match between the two men. 340 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 4: We didn't see any other members of the President's team interject. 341 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 4: It was really the focus on the two men. President 342 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 4: Donald Trump did say that he would be speaking with 343 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin later after he concludes his conversations with Zelenski, 344 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 4: and with European leaders as well. 345 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 2: Right, an important development, an important part about the next 346 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 2: steps here, which is where we want to begin by 347 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: bringing in our next guest. We're joined now by retired 348 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,479 Speaker 2: Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. He's the former Commanding at General 349 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 2: for US Army Europe. General Hodges, thanks so much for 350 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 2: being here. I want to get your reaction to what 351 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 2: we just heard from President Trump. He says that he 352 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 2: will be speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin after he 353 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 2: has this high stakes talks today, not just with the 354 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 2: Ukrainian Selenski, but also about half a dozen European leaders 355 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 2: who have also come here to the White House. How 356 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 2: can we measure success today? What are the increments that 357 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 2: we should be looking for as these meetings get going well? 358 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 7: I have to say that, based on the President's record 359 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 7: of not following through on any threats to increase pressure 360 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 7: on Russia with sanctions or other measures, nothing that's said 361 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 7: I think can be really counted on until we see action. 362 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 7: I do expect that the European leaders who have turned 363 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 7: up for this are there because they're worried that the 364 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 7: President of the United States is going to abandon Ukraine 365 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 7: or somehow put all the blame on Ukraine if there's 366 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 7: not some sort of a deal. If the President were 367 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 7: to say, you know, Vladimir Putin, get your troops out 368 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 7: of Ukraine, which is never said, by the way, neither 369 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 7: he or the Secretary I have never said the Russian 370 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 7: should leave Ukraine, not one time, that would be a 371 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 7: significant shift. 372 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 4: General Hodges, what has been the reaction in Europe, a 373 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 4: region where you have spent some key parts of your career. 374 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 4: What has been the reaction in Europe among your former 375 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 4: counterparts and others in the area to the summit on Friday, 376 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 4: and then what we have seen unfold since. 377 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 7: I'd say three things. First of all, they are a 378 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 7: guest in disbelief that the President of the United States 379 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 7: has treated President of Putin the way he has, and 380 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:47,400 Speaker 7: that he has is does the Kremlins bidding? I mean 381 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,640 Speaker 7: almost verbatim on some of the talking points, that most 382 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 7: Europeans are dumbfounded that this is what's happening after decades 383 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 7: of American leadership in European security through NATO but also 384 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 7: deterring the Soviet Union and then Russia, that they can't 385 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 7: believe it. The second thing the reaction is, of course 386 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 7: an acknowledgment by most Europeans that they have failed over 387 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 7: the last three decades to do what they should do, 388 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 7: to be strong militarily to deter Russia, and to have 389 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 7: to perhaps do something without strong American support that's in 390 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 7: the industry side, the nuclear deterrence. They were very late 391 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 7: in cutting their dependence on Russian oil, which made them 392 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 7: very vulnerable, of course. And then the third thing I 393 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 7: would say is europe is probably going to be forced 394 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,959 Speaker 7: into doing something they've talked about, which is to accept 395 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 7: more responsibility. This sovereignty if you will. And in the 396 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 7: long run, I think we in the United States are 397 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,400 Speaker 7: going to regret that Europe will not be as dependent 398 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 7: on us. It's going to hurt us economically as well 399 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:05,199 Speaker 7: as in the security standpoint in general. 400 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,479 Speaker 4: To follow up on the difference between Europe and the 401 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 4: US here when it comes to Ukraine. Now under Donald Trump, 402 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 4: the President is now skipping over the step of obtaining 403 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 4: a ceasefire before actually reaching a piece deal that would last. 404 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 4: This is the Europeans have pushed for a ceasefire first. 405 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 4: What is the significance of skipping over this step, how 406 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 4: are we to read it? And who does it favor? 407 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 7: Well? I think it favors the Russians. The fact is, 408 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 7: nobody in Europe and probably most serious people in the 409 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,640 Speaker 7: United States know that Russiana cannot be trusted to live 410 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 7: up to any agreement, let alone a ceasefire that was 411 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 7: an effect of ceasefire. There has to be some kind 412 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 7: of enforcement mechanism. And so here is where I think 413 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 7: Europe could convey to the President United States that if 414 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 7: the US would call for this, and the US would 415 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 7: help with some things such as intelligence and maybe logistics, 416 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 7: that the Europeans would shoulder the burden for enforcing a ceasefire, 417 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 7: but instead they have agreed or given in to Putin's 418 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,199 Speaker 7: demand that no NATO troops of any type can be 419 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,399 Speaker 7: on the ground in Ukraine's That's not a decision for 420 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,719 Speaker 7: the Krimlin to make, but that's how we are acting 421 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 7: as if they do have that right to make that demand. 422 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 7: I think that the idea of going straight to some 423 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 7: kind of a peace settlement, that the danger is that again, 424 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 7: nobody trusts the Russians. There's no record of Russia living 425 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 7: up to any agreement unless they were forced to do it, 426 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 7: and so I think this is why. And even Secretary 427 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 7: Rubio up until just a few few weeks ago, he 428 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 7: talked consistently about the need for a ceasefire to stop 429 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 7: the killing, but also to build trust and confidence that 430 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 7: Russia would actually live up to an agreement. Look at 431 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 7: what Russia did last night. They killed another seven Ukrainian 432 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 7: civilians with incendiary bombs dropped on top of my apartment 433 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,440 Speaker 7: building the night before this meeting is supposed to happen. 434 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 7: And then you've got Russian bombers flying out in the 435 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 7: Barren Sea close to Alaska. These are not signs of 436 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 7: a Russian government that is really really wanting to have 437 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 7: a negotiated settlement that's acceptable to all. 438 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: Right and General gla that you brought up Secretary of 439 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 2: State Mark Arrubio, because he actually did say in one 440 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: of his interviews over the weekend that one of the 441 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 2: issues with a ceasefire is that you have to enforce it, 442 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 2: and perhaps that's starting to be some of the messaging 443 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 2: that we've seen out of the White House. And another 444 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 2: area where the Secretary of State was pressed on President 445 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 2: Trump was pressed on in the Oval Office is exactly 446 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,400 Speaker 2: what those security guarantees are going to look like if 447 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 2: they do move to a piece deal. And I would 448 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 2: love to get your thoughts here on exactly what the 449 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 2: Europeans are going to be pushing for, because we have 450 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 2: seen a range of options perhaps floated on the table, 451 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 2: such as the UK and France earlier this year proposing 452 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 2: a plan that would see reassurance forces, air cover things 453 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 2: like that. What in your view is realistic and what 454 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 2: do you expect our allies to really be pushing for 455 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 2: that they think they could get when it comes to 456 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 2: guarantees from the United States. 457 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 7: Well, if I may, of course Secretary Rubia was correct 458 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 7: to say that a ceasefire would require enforcement, but so 459 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 7: a settlement. I mean, there is nobody in Europe trusts 460 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,160 Speaker 7: Russia to do what they say they'll do unless they're 461 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 7: forced to. So whether we go to ceasefire go directly 462 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 7: to some sort of an agreement, does anybody seriously believe 463 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 7: that Russia will live up to it? There's no record 464 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 7: of them doing that anywhere. But let's go to the 465 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 7: point of your question of what would a enforcement or 466 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 7: what security guarantees look like. Obviously, I'll say what many 467 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 7: have said is that NATO is the best security guarantee. 468 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 7: These things that mister Whitcoff have said about a NATO 469 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 7: like or a NATO style guarantee, that what a meaningless statement. 470 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,199 Speaker 7: I mean, what does he mean by NATO like? You 471 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 7: know that means an attack on Ukraine would be considered 472 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 7: like an attack on the US. 473 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 2: All Right, Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodge is the former 474 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 2: commanding General for US Army Europe. Thank you so much. 475 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 476 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,959 Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify, 477 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 478 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at new Time 479 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,640 Speaker 1: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.