WEBVTT - Bloomberg's Micklethwait: Merkel Is Europe's Best Hope (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg Business Flash. You're listening to

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<v Speaker 1>taking Stock with pin Box at Gathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Brexit. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>there is a referendum schedule for June the twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>in the United Kingdom to find out whether the United

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<v Speaker 1>Kingdom will remain part of the European Union. Here to

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<v Speaker 1>tell us more about Brexit, but also about Europe in

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<v Speaker 1>general and perhaps a growing fatigue in Germany. I want

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<v Speaker 1>to welcome John Michael Thwaite. He is editor in chief

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Editorial. John, thank you very much for coming in.

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<v Speaker 1>Just give us the outline of your piece, because you

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<v Speaker 1>speak about this growing fatigue at the heart of Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>What does that mean? Well, there was an element in

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<v Speaker 1>this piece of being a kind of postcard from the

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<v Speaker 1>place I went to. UM I went to Berlin, and

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<v Speaker 1>what struck me, not having been there for about a

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<v Speaker 1>year and a half, was to sense of tiredness. And

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<v Speaker 1>it's partly that Merkel has been the leader for a

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<v Speaker 1>very long time angler Michel Tarla, and but it's also

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<v Speaker 1>actually just a sense of exasperation. I think that the

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<v Speaker 1>Germans have been trying to lead Europe in a very

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<v Speaker 1>reluctant way. Anyway, and the rest of your Europe hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>been very helpful. When you look at those two big

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<v Speaker 1>crises which dominate Europe. Put Brexit to one side, the

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<v Speaker 1>two big crisis of the euro and the migrants. And

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<v Speaker 1>on the euro you know, the Germans look around um

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<v Speaker 1>Europe and somewhat hypocritically because they haven't done much. They

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<v Speaker 1>think how little structural reforms being done in places like France.

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<v Speaker 1>They get cross about the fact that the Italians are

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<v Speaker 1>trying to sort out things that they should have done

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<v Speaker 1>years ago. And they feel continually as if they're the

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<v Speaker 1>people writing the checks now that that there is hypocrisy

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<v Speaker 1>in that that the Germans are done very well out

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<v Speaker 1>of the euro. On the migrants, I think the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of busterness is greater because the there's Germany, there's angler Michael.

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<v Speaker 1>She's kept the whole show on the road. She has

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<v Speaker 1>Germany has helped Eastern Europe places like that hugely. And

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<v Speaker 1>the one time she turns and says, please please help,

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<v Speaker 1>please help me with this million refugees, because if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at that million refugees across the whole of Europe,

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<v Speaker 1>you should be able to absorb it. That one time,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you'll play ball, and so Germany just feels worn

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<v Speaker 1>out of it. Well, the other part of this, of

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<v Speaker 1>course is I mean there's so much if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at Greece in Germany, for example, and you mentioned something

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<v Speaker 1>that has probably fallen off the radar screen just a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit, and that is the Greek Parliament having to

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<v Speaker 1>decide on support measures. A couple of years ago. We

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<v Speaker 1>followed every twist and turn out of Greece, but the

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<v Speaker 1>intensity at the height of all that there were there

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<v Speaker 1>was some nasty stuff going back and forth to the

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<v Speaker 1>Greeks and the Germans are harkened back to World War Two.

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<v Speaker 1>That there is always that narrative, and I do think

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<v Speaker 1>there is um there was an element in two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and twelve particularly that that way you don't Anklamclor, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>we gotting to see her. And I think the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of general background at the time was you had Greece

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<v Speaker 1>in all kinds of trouble, but Greece which had not

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<v Speaker 1>paid its bills, and you had a very strong faction

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<v Speaker 1>in Germany. D I think by Mr Scheibler, the finance minister,

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<v Speaker 1>saying enough is enough, We've got to cut them off.

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<v Speaker 1>But what I think panicked her was those images of

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<v Speaker 1>Albanians being rounded up, of the element that another Balkan

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<v Speaker 1>tragedy could begin and once again Germany would be part

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<v Speaker 1>of it. I think Germany has moved on from that

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<v Speaker 1>now and they think, well, if Greece does get down

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<v Speaker 1>the tubes, it really is probably more fault, more the

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<v Speaker 1>fault of the Greeks than it is of us. But

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<v Speaker 1>they're still reluctant to let it happen. So this Sunday

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<v Speaker 1>the Parliament will vote again and there's a sort of

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<v Speaker 1>fudge in place. And the fudge basically is that the

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<v Speaker 1>I m F has been sitting there and rather heroically

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<v Speaker 1>and correctly pointing out two things. One is that Greece

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<v Speaker 1>cannot repay its debts in the long term, it's just

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<v Speaker 1>got too many of them. And secondly that it's not

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<v Speaker 1>going to hit its primary budgets, let's target in two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand and eighteen. And the fudges that the Germans, who

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<v Speaker 1>do not want to offer any debt relief, we'll put

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<v Speaker 1>up with some kind of version where the debts get

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<v Speaker 1>put off for slightly longer, but no no nominal things

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<v Speaker 1>taken down, and they will accept some of the more

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<v Speaker 1>heroic forecasts the Greek until go through, but maybe it won't.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe this time the Greeks will get cross. But at

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<v Speaker 1>least the the fudge is that this will go through Parliament,

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<v Speaker 1>that Germany the I M. F or sign off on it,

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<v Speaker 1>and then there will be more money agreed for Greece

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<v Speaker 1>later and the whole thing can continue. And that is

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<v Speaker 1>all maybe better than the alternative, which is Greece gaining

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<v Speaker 1>down the two plug hole. But at the same token,

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<v Speaker 1>from the German point of view, this is a problem

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<v Speaker 1>which has never been solved. There's no sign of it

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<v Speaker 1>being solved. There's nothing happening France, and there I think

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<v Speaker 1>it is France a ball and chain when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to I think problem, I think two things. I think

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<v Speaker 1>historically France and Germany were the people who drove along

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<v Speaker 1>the euro with the British somewhat reluctant, rather annoyed backseat

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<v Speaker 1>driver heckling um. Now what's happened is that you have

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<v Speaker 1>particularly the shape of a land, you have a leader

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<v Speaker 1>who is barely able to reform anything, and the Germans

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<v Speaker 1>are just getting bored a bit of it, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they they again, there is hypocrisy in this Merkel actually

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<v Speaker 1>has not done much structural reform herself. It was all

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<v Speaker 1>done my Gerhard Stroker Schroeder, her predecessor. That by any measure,

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<v Speaker 1>the German economies are much more competitive out it in

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<v Speaker 1>the French economy. The France, France has all these issues

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<v Speaker 1>which it really hasn't begun to tackle, the labor laws,

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<v Speaker 1>all the different things the regulation and which the Germans

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<v Speaker 1>know they should do, and it annoys them that the

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<v Speaker 1>French haven't done things, and the French tend to hide

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<v Speaker 1>behind other bits. And it's again it's another source of frustration.

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<v Speaker 1>And actually in this article, would I speculate is that

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<v Speaker 1>what might conceivably happen is that Brexit the very thing

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<v Speaker 1>that the angling rcle most wants to avoid, because she

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<v Speaker 1>is writing that if she loses the British is the

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<v Speaker 1>other great liberalizer or is it not the main liberalizer

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe, she will not get the reforms she wanted. Oddly,

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<v Speaker 1>if Brexit were to happen, that's just the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>exposive thing which might just pushed Germany one last time

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<v Speaker 1>to go back in there and try and reform the

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<v Speaker 1>central European institutions. Of course, we are speaking with John Nickothwaite,

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<v Speaker 1>I had a bloombergatotorial and his bloombergviewpiece the growing fatigue

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<v Speaker 1>at the heart of Europe As a brit what what

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<v Speaker 1>what do you make of the real possibility that breaks

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<v Speaker 1>could happen. Although some of the latest polls are showing

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<v Speaker 1>that we're look, there might be a majority to leave,

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<v Speaker 1>that is shifted again and now the majority wants to stay.

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<v Speaker 1>The majority. Most of the polls show that the majority

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<v Speaker 1>wants to stay, sometimes by narrow margins, a couple recently

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<v Speaker 1>by quite large margins which have affected the pound. But

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<v Speaker 1>and this is a crucial thing, is that none of

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<v Speaker 1>these polls mean that much unless you begin to overlay

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<v Speaker 1>them with demographic things. Because the biggest divide in Britain

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm quoting numbers, which is about a week old

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<v Speaker 1>between the old and the young, and the old overwhelmingly

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<v Speaker 1>around want to leave and the young overwhelmingly want to

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<v Speaker 1>stay again around And the interesting thing on this, which

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<v Speaker 1>is just a huge factor, is the old vote and

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<v Speaker 1>the young don't. So even if you have poles saying

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<v Speaker 1>that there is a voting intention to stay, you have

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<v Speaker 1>to add that element of cynicism about it, or or

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<v Speaker 1>worry as women actually interestingly have yet to make up

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<v Speaker 1>their mind. In many cases they're the video. I'm sure

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<v Speaker 1>there's been lots of like this of Nigel Farage, He's

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<v Speaker 1>a former commodity broker, British politician. It was all over

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube and I'm thinking that that anti German vitriol. You

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<v Speaker 1>know that the Germans are too powerful that you was

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<v Speaker 1>not set up for Germany to dominate. It was set

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<v Speaker 1>up to bring people together. What is what is the

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<v Speaker 1>end game for people in that camp? Well, there's always

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<v Speaker 1>the Britain. And I grew up in Germany was a fixation.

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<v Speaker 1>Grew up watching sort of war films. Dad's Army, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a really very funny comedy about the British Home

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<v Speaker 1>Guard during the war. That was part of your youth. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And that the Germans also have a somewhat irritating habit

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<v Speaker 1>of repeatedly beating US football the last moment on penalties. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But all those things that there's always been a subtext,

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<v Speaker 1>and the tabloids are not afraid to have a go

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<v Speaker 1>at it. The week when I was I was in

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<v Speaker 1>Berlin last week and one of the British tabloids came

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<v Speaker 1>out with a sort of headline basically saying that Germany

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<v Speaker 1>had a veto over what the British couldn't couldn't do

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<v Speaker 1>and that Cameron had given into it, and again that

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<v Speaker 1>was stoking this. That said, I'm still of the opinion

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<v Speaker 1>that actually Angler Michael is one of the few people

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<v Speaker 1>who would be a voice that Britians, particularly modern Britians,

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<v Speaker 1>would listen to, because basically, when one of the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>problems for the Remain campaign is a simple one is

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<v Speaker 1>the European Union is a bit of a mess. And

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<v Speaker 1>amongst all the people you know who how symbolize some

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<v Speaker 1>degree of efficiency and ability to work things out, Angela

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<v Speaker 1>Merkel is still even allowing for the refugee crisis, she

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<v Speaker 1>is the best possible person you can put forward in

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<v Speaker 1>that way. So the sort of yes said that there

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<v Speaker 1>are some nasty anti German things, particularly I think, to

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<v Speaker 1>be honest, amongst more olderly people, young younger, the young

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<v Speaker 1>seem to care less, not least because you wander around London.

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<v Speaker 1>London is now one of the most cos Impolitan cities

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<v Speaker 1>in the world, with a lot of Germans there. I

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<v Speaker 1>was going to ask you about Turkey, but I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if you can do it in ten seconds. Turkey

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<v Speaker 1>is a problem, is an even greater problem. No Turkey, Turkeys,

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<v Speaker 1>and that Turkey is has done a deal over the

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<v Speaker 1>refugees where it has taken some money in exchange for

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<v Speaker 1>looking after them, and now she's getting cross with the deal, John,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think you'll just have to return to taking stock.

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<v Speaker 1>You talk about we can just talk all the way across.

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<v Speaker 1>You can talk Turkey. Yes we can't. All very good.

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<v Speaker 1>See he's learned a lot he's years in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>John mcolf waits, the editor in chief from Bloomberg Editorial.

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<v Speaker 1>I've tweeted out his piece on the fatigue at the

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<v Speaker 1>heart of Europe. I'm Kathleen Hayes along with Pim Fox.

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<v Speaker 1>This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio. Right,