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Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg Business Flash. You're listening to
Speaker 1: taking Stock with pin Box at Gathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Brexit. Yes,
Speaker 1: there is a referendum schedule for June the twenty three
Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom to find out whether the United
Speaker 1: Kingdom will remain part of the European Union. Here to
Speaker 1: tell us more about Brexit, but also about Europe in
Speaker 1: general and perhaps a growing fatigue in Germany. I want
Speaker 1: to welcome John Michael Thwaite. He is editor in chief
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Editorial. John, thank you very much for coming in.
Speaker 1: Just give us the outline of your piece, because you
Speaker 1: speak about this growing fatigue at the heart of Europe.
Speaker 1: What does that mean? Well, there was an element in
Speaker 1: this piece of being a kind of postcard from the
Speaker 1: place I went to. UM I went to Berlin, and
Speaker 1: what struck me, not having been there for about a
Speaker 1: year and a half, was to sense of tiredness. And
Speaker 1: it's partly that Merkel has been the leader for a
Speaker 1: very long time angler Michel Tarla, and but it's also
Speaker 1: actually just a sense of exasperation. I think that the
Speaker 1: Germans have been trying to lead Europe in a very
Speaker 1: reluctant way. Anyway, and the rest of your Europe hasn't
Speaker 1: been very helpful. When you look at those two big
Speaker 1: crises which dominate Europe. Put Brexit to one side, the
Speaker 1: two big crisis of the euro and the migrants. And
Speaker 1: on the euro you know, the Germans look around um
Speaker 1: Europe and somewhat hypocritically because they haven't done much. They
Speaker 1: think how little structural reforms being done in places like France.
Speaker 1: They get cross about the fact that the Italians are
Speaker 1: trying to sort out things that they should have done
Speaker 1: years ago. And they feel continually as if they're the
Speaker 1: people writing the checks now that that there is hypocrisy
Speaker 1: in that that the Germans are done very well out
Speaker 1: of the euro. On the migrants, I think the sort
Speaker 1: of busterness is greater because the there's Germany, there's angler Michael.
Speaker 1: She's kept the whole show on the road. She has
Speaker 1: Germany has helped Eastern Europe places like that hugely. And
Speaker 1: the one time she turns and says, please please help,
Speaker 1: please help me with this million refugees, because if you
Speaker 1: look at that million refugees across the whole of Europe,
Speaker 1: you should be able to absorb it. That one time,
Speaker 1: maybe you'll play ball, and so Germany just feels worn
Speaker 1: out of it. Well, the other part of this, of
Speaker 1: course is I mean there's so much if you look
Speaker 1: at Greece in Germany, for example, and you mentioned something
Speaker 1: that has probably fallen off the radar screen just a
Speaker 1: little bit, and that is the Greek Parliament having to
Speaker 1: decide on support measures. A couple of years ago. We
Speaker 1: followed every twist and turn out of Greece, but the
Speaker 1: intensity at the height of all that there were there
Speaker 1: was some nasty stuff going back and forth to the
Speaker 1: Greeks and the Germans are harkened back to World War Two.
Speaker 1: That there is always that narrative, and I do think
Speaker 1: there is um there was an element in two thousand
Speaker 1: and twelve particularly that that way you don't Anklamclor, I'm
Speaker 1: we gotting to see her. And I think the sort
Speaker 1: of general background at the time was you had Greece
Speaker 1: in all kinds of trouble, but Greece which had not
Speaker 1: paid its bills, and you had a very strong faction
Speaker 1: in Germany. D I think by Mr Scheibler, the finance minister,
Speaker 1: saying enough is enough, We've got to cut them off.
Speaker 1: But what I think panicked her was those images of
Speaker 1: Albanians being rounded up, of the element that another Balkan
Speaker 1: tragedy could begin and once again Germany would be part
Speaker 1: of it. I think Germany has moved on from that
Speaker 1: now and they think, well, if Greece does get down
Speaker 1: the tubes, it really is probably more fault, more the
Speaker 1: fault of the Greeks than it is of us. But
Speaker 1: they're still reluctant to let it happen. So this Sunday
Speaker 1: the Parliament will vote again and there's a sort of
Speaker 1: fudge in place. And the fudge basically is that the
Speaker 1: I m F has been sitting there and rather heroically
Speaker 1: and correctly pointing out two things. One is that Greece
Speaker 1: cannot repay its debts in the long term, it's just
Speaker 1: got too many of them. And secondly that it's not
Speaker 1: going to hit its primary budgets, let's target in two
Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen. And the fudges that the Germans, who
Speaker 1: do not want to offer any debt relief, we'll put
Speaker 1: up with some kind of version where the debts get
Speaker 1: put off for slightly longer, but no no nominal things
Speaker 1: taken down, and they will accept some of the more
Speaker 1: heroic forecasts the Greek until go through, but maybe it won't.
Speaker 1: Maybe this time the Greeks will get cross. But at
Speaker 1: least the the fudge is that this will go through Parliament,
Speaker 1: that Germany the I M. F or sign off on it,
Speaker 1: and then there will be more money agreed for Greece
Speaker 1: later and the whole thing can continue. And that is
Speaker 1: all maybe better than the alternative, which is Greece gaining
Speaker 1: down the two plug hole. But at the same token,
Speaker 1: from the German point of view, this is a problem
Speaker 1: which has never been solved. There's no sign of it
Speaker 1: being solved. There's nothing happening France, and there I think
Speaker 1: it is France a ball and chain when it comes
Speaker 1: to I think problem, I think two things. I think
Speaker 1: historically France and Germany were the people who drove along
Speaker 1: the euro with the British somewhat reluctant, rather annoyed backseat
Speaker 1: driver heckling um. Now what's happened is that you have
Speaker 1: particularly the shape of a land, you have a leader
Speaker 1: who is barely able to reform anything, and the Germans
Speaker 1: are just getting bored a bit of it, you know,
Speaker 1: they they again, there is hypocrisy in this Merkel actually
Speaker 1: has not done much structural reform herself. It was all
Speaker 1: done my Gerhard Stroker Schroeder, her predecessor. That by any measure,
Speaker 1: the German economies are much more competitive out it in
Speaker 1: the French economy. The France, France has all these issues
Speaker 1: which it really hasn't begun to tackle, the labor laws,
Speaker 1: all the different things the regulation and which the Germans
Speaker 1: know they should do, and it annoys them that the
Speaker 1: French haven't done things, and the French tend to hide
Speaker 1: behind other bits. And it's again it's another source of frustration.
Speaker 1: And actually in this article, would I speculate is that
Speaker 1: what might conceivably happen is that Brexit the very thing
Speaker 1: that the angling rcle most wants to avoid, because she
Speaker 1: is writing that if she loses the British is the
Speaker 1: other great liberalizer or is it not the main liberalizer
Speaker 1: in Europe, she will not get the reforms she wanted. Oddly,
Speaker 1: if Brexit were to happen, that's just the kind of
Speaker 1: exposive thing which might just pushed Germany one last time
Speaker 1: to go back in there and try and reform the
Speaker 1: central European institutions. Of course, we are speaking with John Nickothwaite,
Speaker 1: I had a bloombergatotorial and his bloombergviewpiece the growing fatigue
Speaker 1: at the heart of Europe As a brit what what
Speaker 1: what do you make of the real possibility that breaks
Speaker 1: could happen. Although some of the latest polls are showing
Speaker 1: that we're look, there might be a majority to leave,
Speaker 1: that is shifted again and now the majority wants to stay.
Speaker 1: The majority. Most of the polls show that the majority
Speaker 1: wants to stay, sometimes by narrow margins, a couple recently
Speaker 1: by quite large margins which have affected the pound. But
Speaker 1: and this is a crucial thing, is that none of
Speaker 1: these polls mean that much unless you begin to overlay
Speaker 1: them with demographic things. Because the biggest divide in Britain
Speaker 1: and I'm quoting numbers, which is about a week old
Speaker 1: between the old and the young, and the old overwhelmingly
Speaker 1: around want to leave and the young overwhelmingly want to
Speaker 1: stay again around And the interesting thing on this, which
Speaker 1: is just a huge factor, is the old vote and
Speaker 1: the young don't. So even if you have poles saying
Speaker 1: that there is a voting intention to stay, you have
Speaker 1: to add that element of cynicism about it, or or
Speaker 1: worry as women actually interestingly have yet to make up
Speaker 1: their mind. In many cases they're the video. I'm sure
Speaker 1: there's been lots of like this of Nigel Farage, He's
Speaker 1: a former commodity broker, British politician. It was all over
Speaker 1: YouTube and I'm thinking that that anti German vitriol. You
Speaker 1: know that the Germans are too powerful that you was
Speaker 1: not set up for Germany to dominate. It was set
Speaker 1: up to bring people together. What is what is the
Speaker 1: end game for people in that camp? Well, there's always
Speaker 1: the Britain. And I grew up in Germany was a fixation.
Speaker 1: Grew up watching sort of war films. Dad's Army, which
Speaker 1: is a really very funny comedy about the British Home
Speaker 1: Guard during the war. That was part of your youth. Um.
Speaker 1: And that the Germans also have a somewhat irritating habit
Speaker 1: of repeatedly beating US football the last moment on penalties. Um.
Speaker 1: But all those things that there's always been a subtext,
Speaker 1: and the tabloids are not afraid to have a go
Speaker 1: at it. The week when I was I was in
Speaker 1: Berlin last week and one of the British tabloids came
Speaker 1: out with a sort of headline basically saying that Germany
Speaker 1: had a veto over what the British couldn't couldn't do
Speaker 1: and that Cameron had given into it, and again that
Speaker 1: was stoking this. That said, I'm still of the opinion
Speaker 1: that actually Angler Michael is one of the few people
Speaker 1: who would be a voice that Britians, particularly modern Britians,
Speaker 1: would listen to, because basically, when one of the biggest
Speaker 1: problems for the Remain campaign is a simple one is
Speaker 1: the European Union is a bit of a mess. And
Speaker 1: amongst all the people you know who how symbolize some
Speaker 1: degree of efficiency and ability to work things out, Angela
Speaker 1: Merkel is still even allowing for the refugee crisis, she
Speaker 1: is the best possible person you can put forward in
Speaker 1: that way. So the sort of yes said that there
Speaker 1: are some nasty anti German things, particularly I think, to
Speaker 1: be honest, amongst more olderly people, young younger, the young
Speaker 1: seem to care less, not least because you wander around London.
Speaker 1: London is now one of the most cos Impolitan cities
Speaker 1: in the world, with a lot of Germans there. I
Speaker 1: was going to ask you about Turkey, but I don't
Speaker 1: know if you can do it in ten seconds. Turkey
Speaker 1: is a problem, is an even greater problem. No Turkey, Turkeys,
Speaker 1: and that Turkey is has done a deal over the
Speaker 1: refugees where it has taken some money in exchange for
Speaker 1: looking after them, and now she's getting cross with the deal, John,
Speaker 1: because I think you'll just have to return to taking stock.
Speaker 1: You talk about we can just talk all the way across.
Speaker 1: You can talk Turkey. Yes we can't. All very good.
Speaker 1: See he's learned a lot he's years in the United States.
Speaker 1: John mcolf waits, the editor in chief from Bloomberg Editorial.
Speaker 1: I've tweeted out his piece on the fatigue at the
Speaker 1: heart of Europe. I'm Kathleen Hayes along with Pim Fox.
Speaker 1: This is taking Stock on Bloomberg Radio. Right,