WEBVTT - From the Vault: Overconfidence, Part 1

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow your mind. My name

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<v Speaker 1>is Robert Lamb and I'm Joe McCormick, and it's Saturday.

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<v Speaker 1>Time to go into the vault for a classic episode

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<v Speaker 1>of the show. This originally aired February ended. Is about

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<v Speaker 1>over confidence. Oh yeah, this one's interesting to look back on,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think when we recorded this we were, in

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<v Speaker 1>a way, we were a little bit overconfident. We we

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<v Speaker 1>imagined that we would perhaps still be recording together in

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<v Speaker 1>a studio um for the rest of the year, or

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<v Speaker 1>at least we would come back before the year ended.

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<v Speaker 1>And uh, that did not come to pass. The greatest

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<v Speaker 1>plans of podcasters and men, they all are, don't I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know how that saying ends. All right, well, I

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<v Speaker 1>know how this podcast begins. So let's jump right in.

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<v Speaker 1>In tedious exile now too long detained dead lists languished

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<v Speaker 1>for his native land. The sea foreclosed his flight. Yet

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<v Speaker 1>thus he said, though earth and water, in subjection laid

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<v Speaker 1>oh cruel minos thy dominion, B will go through air,

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<v Speaker 1>for sure, the air is free. Then to new arts.

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<v Speaker 1>His cunning thought applies, and to improve the work of

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<v Speaker 1>nature tries a row of quills and gradual order placed

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<v Speaker 1>rise by degrees in length from first to last. As

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<v Speaker 1>on a cliff, the ascending thicket grows or different reads

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<v Speaker 1>the rural pipe compose. Along the middle runs a twine

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<v Speaker 1>of flax. The bottom stems are joined by pliant wax,

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<v Speaker 1>thus well compact. A hollow bending brings the fine composure

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<v Speaker 1>into real wings. His boy, young Icarus, that near him stood,

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<v Speaker 1>unthinking of his fate, with smiles, pursued the floating feathers

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<v Speaker 1>which the moving air bore loosely from the ground and

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<v Speaker 1>wasted here and there, or with the wax, and pertinently played,

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<v Speaker 1>and with his childish tricks, the great design delayed the

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<v Speaker 1>final master stroke at last imposed, and now the neat

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<v Speaker 1>machine completely closed. Fitting his pinions. On a flight, he

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<v Speaker 1>tries and hung self balanced and the beaten skies. Then

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<v Speaker 1>thus instructs his child, My boy, take care to win

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<v Speaker 1>your course along the middle air. If low the surge

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<v Speaker 1>is wet your flagging plumes. If high the sun the

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<v Speaker 1>melting wax consumed, steer between both, nor to the northern skies,

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<v Speaker 1>nor south orion. Turn your giddy eyes, but follow me.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me before you lay rules for the flight and

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<v Speaker 1>mark the pathless way. Then teaching with a fond concern

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<v Speaker 1>his son. He took the untried wings and fixed them on,

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<v Speaker 1>but fixed with trembling hands, and as he speaks, the

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<v Speaker 1>tears rolled gently down his aged cheeks. Then kissed and

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<v Speaker 1>in his arms embraced him fast, but knew not this

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<v Speaker 1>brace must be the last. And mounting upward as he

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<v Speaker 1>wings his flight back on his charge, he turns an

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<v Speaker 1>aching sight as parent birds when their first callow care

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<v Speaker 1>leave the high ness to tempt the liquid air, then

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<v Speaker 1>cheers him on and oft with fatal art, reminds the

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<v Speaker 1>stripling to perform his part. These as the angler at

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<v Speaker 1>the silent brook, or mountain shepherd leaning on his crook,

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<v Speaker 1>or gaping plowman from the veil descries, they stare and

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<v Speaker 1>view them with religious eyes, and straight conclude them gods,

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<v Speaker 1>since none but they, through their own azure skies could

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<v Speaker 1>find a way. Now delos Paros on the left are

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<v Speaker 1>Scene and Samos, favored by Jove's haughty queen. Upon the

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<v Speaker 1>right the isle of Lebenthos named and fair Calumny for

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<v Speaker 1>its honey famed. When now the boy, whose childish thoughts

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<v Speaker 1>aspire to loftier aims and make him ramble higher, grown

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<v Speaker 1>wild and wanton, more emboldened flies far from his guide

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<v Speaker 1>and source. Among the skies, the softening wax that felt

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<v Speaker 1>a nearer son dissolved a pace and soon began to

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<v Speaker 1>run the youth in vain. His melting pinions shakes, his

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<v Speaker 1>feathers gone no longer air. He takes oh father, Father,

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<v Speaker 1>as he strove to cry down to the sea. He

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<v Speaker 1>tumbled from on high and found his fate, yet still

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<v Speaker 1>subsists by fame among those waters that retain his name.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome stuff to blow your mind. A production of I

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<v Speaker 1>Heart Radios has to work. Hey, are you welcome to

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<v Speaker 1>stuff to blow your mind? My name is Robert Lamb

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm Joe McCormick. And that was of course from

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<v Speaker 1>Ovid's Metamorphoses. The Garthen Dryden translation the story of Dadalus

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<v Speaker 1>and Icarus one of our favorites that actually, i'd say

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<v Speaker 1>is a sort of recurring theme on invention as well.

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<v Speaker 1>It was one of our I believe we wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>originally call the show data lists in fact uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>it was decided that that was to obscure. The business

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<v Speaker 1>masters were like, people will not know what that is. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I enjoyed reading through this uh, this excerpt

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<v Speaker 1>from from ovid here, because even though we have talked

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<v Speaker 1>at length about data lists and Nichris before and or

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<v Speaker 1>at least in passing, you know, bringing up just sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the metaphor and the invention and talked we've talked

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<v Speaker 1>about data lists, other uh inventions and myth as well.

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<v Speaker 1>But this, this reading, I think is is rather nice

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<v Speaker 1>because it also captures the humanity of the characters. And

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly as a father, you know, I can certainly

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<v Speaker 1>relate to some of these feelings as he's trying to

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<v Speaker 1>prepare his boy for the challenges ahead. There's real passion,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's passion and the different concerns of the father

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<v Speaker 1>and the son. The father wants freedom, wants escape, and

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<v Speaker 1>he wants safety, and the son wants fun. It's basically

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<v Speaker 1>um catste even song, father and son, but in in

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<v Speaker 1>in mythic form. Now, there are a lot of themes

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<v Speaker 1>you could get into when discussing the story of Icarus

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<v Speaker 1>and Dadalus. So one of the main themes, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>that people draw out of this story is the theme

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<v Speaker 1>of over confidence and over confidence leading to disaster, right, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>and so that is going to be our main focus

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<v Speaker 1>for these episodes. We were pretty excited about it. We

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<v Speaker 1>did no research and and we think we can we

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<v Speaker 1>can probably get four or five episodes out of this,

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<v Speaker 1>so we can just wing it, you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>winging it. Yes, yes, that is what it is. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that is maybe I wonder if that's where the

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<v Speaker 1>phrase comes from. You're just winging it like Icarus. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. Okay, well, if you got lost in the

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<v Speaker 1>English couplets there of Garth and Dryden and so forth, Robert,

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<v Speaker 1>could you just give a brief summary of what actually

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<v Speaker 1>happens in the myth of Icarus and Daedalus. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>just breaking it down to the major plot points here. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>These these are artificial wings crafted by the master engineer Daedalus,

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<v Speaker 1>and then he, uh, he helps his son Icarus put

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<v Speaker 1>them on. They're using these to escape from Minos. He

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<v Speaker 1>who is the master of the Maze and the master

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<v Speaker 1>of the Minotaur. Um and uh so you know, he

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<v Speaker 1>puts these these amazing wings on him. But then Icarus

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<v Speaker 1>flies too close to the sun, the rays melt the

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<v Speaker 1>wax and he falls to his death. And he's been

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<v Speaker 1>specifically warned, Yeah, don't fly too close to the sun,

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna melt the wax. You're gonna plummet and fall.

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<v Speaker 1>But he still flies too high. He flies beyond the

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<v Speaker 1>the his ability, flies beyond the engineering constraints of the wings,

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<v Speaker 1>and perishes for it. I love the word choice in

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<v Speaker 1>the poem in the English version. He wants to ramble higher.

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<v Speaker 1>He's he's having fun, he's out there. He's like, it'll

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<v Speaker 1>be fine. Yeah. And I think one of the key

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<v Speaker 1>things to keep in mind about the Smith, if we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at it and focusing on over confidence, is that

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<v Speaker 1>Daedalus is a master uh at at creating these wings,

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<v Speaker 1>and Icarus is no slouch at flying with them, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not a you know, an imperor his new

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<v Speaker 1>clothes scenario where one is confident, you know, with without

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<v Speaker 1>any underlying skill, Like there's plenty of skill to go

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<v Speaker 1>around here. But the idea is that chorus as sends

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<v Speaker 1>just a little too high, he he goes to that

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<v Speaker 1>place that he has warned two road to to avoid,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is his downfall. Even though there is a

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<v Speaker 1>real basis for confidence, the confidence in the brain exceeds

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<v Speaker 1>the confidence warranted by circumstances. But then that becomes the

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<v Speaker 1>whole focus of the myth. Right, nobody stops to admire, like, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>datal Is really built some amazing wings and Acharus was

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<v Speaker 1>really great at flying them. Now we just focus on

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that he dies and falls into the ocean.

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<v Speaker 1>And this very idea of like overconfidence, that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that that meets a tragic end is such a powerful

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<v Speaker 1>and common theme of myths and drama throughout history. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>myths and drama and of course human histories, which of

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<v Speaker 1>course involved both myth making and dramatic storytelling telling. But

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<v Speaker 1>there's just so much of it. It's such a frequent

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<v Speaker 1>trope that on one hand, it's easy to just not

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<v Speaker 1>think about it, like this is just what happens in

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<v Speaker 1>our stories. So, you know, we either can't get enough

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<v Speaker 1>of tales of hubrists and uh and over confidence, or

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<v Speaker 1>it's just such a common feature of human enterprise and

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<v Speaker 1>ambition that is just a necessary plot point in almost

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<v Speaker 1>any tale worth telling. Yeah, I think it's not a

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<v Speaker 1>coincidence that so many figures from history display hubris and overconfidence,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think overconfidence is the kind of trait that,

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<v Speaker 1>in a lot of cases specifically is what gets you

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<v Speaker 1>into the history books and h and from a historical

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<v Speaker 1>point of view, um you know, granted, is not always

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<v Speaker 1>a simple matter, because you know, when you encounter the

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<v Speaker 1>all too frequent tales of an overconfident but a net ruler,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to consider that you know, uh, these you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the history is told by the victors, and this is

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<v Speaker 1>likely you know the story about about about a deposed ruler.

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<v Speaker 1>But sure enough, you look at any um you know

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<v Speaker 1>history of kings and emperors, you will inevitably find multiple

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<v Speaker 1>examples of someone who has pointed out for their overconfidence

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<v Speaker 1>like this, this ruler became too overconfident and that was

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<v Speaker 1>their downfall. And of course the world of mythic expression

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<v Speaker 1>is just full of wonderful examples to chew on. One

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<v Speaker 1>that certainly comes to mind in Judeo Christian traditions and

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<v Speaker 1>especially in Milton's literary treatment of the character, is that

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<v Speaker 1>of Satan, like the classic character who who you know,

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<v Speaker 1>was prideful enough to rebel against the all powerful creator

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<v Speaker 1>God and uh and then falls for it. And that

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<v Speaker 1>is actually a concept from the Bible itself, from the

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<v Speaker 1>from the Tanaka, I mean, in Proverbs sixteen eighteen, you

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<v Speaker 1>get pride go with before destruction, the haughty spirit before

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<v Speaker 1>a fall. Yeah uh, and then of course we already

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<v Speaker 1>talked about about Icarus. But yeah, You'll find plenty of

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<v Speaker 1>examples of God's smiting immortal underlings or mere mortals for

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<v Speaker 1>defying them. And often their central crime is basically they

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<v Speaker 1>that they dared to think themselves greater than they are.

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<v Speaker 1>They overstepped their status in place in the Grand hierarchy.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, in addition to to Icarus, I think at

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<v Speaker 1>least two tales are worth pointing out, But these are

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<v Speaker 1>by far not the only stories of God's punishing mortals

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<v Speaker 1>and immortals for overstepping their boundaries. One of my favorites

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<v Speaker 1>is the Web of Arachney. So this is this is

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<v Speaker 1>a wonderful tale in which you have the mortal Arachney

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<v Speaker 1>who challenges athena goddess of wisdom and crafts, to a

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<v Speaker 1>weaving contest, which, of course is always a terrible thing

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<v Speaker 1>to do. Never challenge a god to a contest unless

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<v Speaker 1>it's a fiddle contest, and that God is the devil

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<v Speaker 1>and you're down in Georgia, right, And then yes, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>you can pull it off in the in that in

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<v Speaker 1>that specific scenario. Um but but but in this scenario,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you're not dealing with the devil, You're dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with the goddess Athena. And so Athena, as one might expect,

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<v Speaker 1>crafts a perfect tapestry, resplendent and depictions of the god's

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<v Speaker 1>punishing mortals for their hubrists, and Arachne creates unequally awesome tapestry.

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<v Speaker 1>But hers depicts all the various ways that the gods

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<v Speaker 1>have manipulated and tormented mortals. Um, so she's getting a

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<v Speaker 1>little fresh. Yeah. Well, they're both putting a lot of uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a lot of emotion into their their work

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<v Speaker 1>here there, and they're both kind of taunting the other

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<v Speaker 1>with their subject matter. The problem is Arachne is immortal

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<v Speaker 1>and Athena is a god. Uh. And of course the

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<v Speaker 1>Greek gods are not known for their reasonable demeanor, So

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<v Speaker 1>don't play fair, right, they don't, And so Athena doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>play fair. Instead, she becomes enraged, She destroys Arachne's work,

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<v Speaker 1>beats her, and leaves her to suicidal shame. And after

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<v Speaker 1>she has died, Arachne becomes the spiders of Earth. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of the origin story for spiders and and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth biological ideological myth. Right, it tells why spiders weave. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>But but one of the interesting wrinkles in all of

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<v Speaker 1>this is that both the streets are accurate from their

0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.840
<v Speaker 1>creator's points of view, that the ending to this story

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 1>is either yet another example of the god's cruelty or

0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:12.760
<v Speaker 1>another example of mortals being rightfully punished for their pride. Um.

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:19.120
<v Speaker 1>And again, much like the chorus scenario, Arachney is highly skilled,

0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:24.319
<v Speaker 1>like she crafts a work that rivals or even equals,

0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:28.920
<v Speaker 1>or or perhaps even surpasses the work of the goddess. Uh.

0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>So she may not have have overstepped her ability, but

0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 1>she certainly oversteps her place. Right, It's a different kind

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.760
<v Speaker 1>of pride. She wasn't over confident, and how good of

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 1>a weaver she is, she was over confident in what

0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 1>she could get away with saying yeah. And then, of course,

0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:47.480
<v Speaker 1>another example, in one that we come back to again

0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.680
<v Speaker 1>and again on the show, is that of Prometheus. Uh. Prometheus,

0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.800
<v Speaker 1>the Titan, having stolen from the gods the secret of fire,

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 1>defied them in giving this secret to the mortals. Uh.

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 1>He is then punished for all eternity for this sin. Yeah.

0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:04.280
<v Speaker 1>Another one that comes to my mind is the myth

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:08.439
<v Speaker 1>of Feton, the son of the god Helio. So remember

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 1>he wants to pilot the chariot. He's like, I want

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.240
<v Speaker 1>to get in the chariot, but uh, he's warned it

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>would not be a good idea, and he's like, no, no,

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 1>I can handle it. I can Yeah, I can drive.

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.360
<v Speaker 1>And he gets in there and the horses, I don't

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>remember exactly what happens, like the horses don't recognize him

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.520
<v Speaker 1>or something. They go nuts, and the chariot crashes into

0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:30.280
<v Speaker 1>the earth or something, or right there, there's general disaster.

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>Right yeah, that's a good one. And then then there

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 1>are various other tales as well that that we could

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.240
<v Speaker 1>we could we could focus on, because again it's just

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 1>a recurring theme in Greek mythology, but but also you know,

0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 1>other belief systems as well, like, for instance, just briefly,

0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 1>there's a fun Chinese example of pride and punishment in

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:54.000
<v Speaker 1>which the Yellow Emperor makes use of of ying long

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.480
<v Speaker 1>that the responding dragon to execute the god of war

0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 1>Chi you after we dared to a's arms against the

0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 1>Yellow Emperor. So there that would be a tale of

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 1>the god of war being overconfident in his ability to

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 1>overthrow the king. Yeah, so many times you do see

0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:12.000
<v Speaker 1>a more of a militant example of this, you know,

0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:15.160
<v Speaker 1>the idea that, oh, you think you can defeat the God,

0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 1>that you cannot, and you're punished for that um either,

0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:20.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, and in other times it's a contest or

0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.520
<v Speaker 1>something to that effect. One thing that I love in

0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 1>the Greek conception of of hubris is that there was

0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 1>a goddess that existed purely to splatter people who displayed

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.640
<v Speaker 1>arrogance and over confidence. And this was the goddess Nemesis,

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.960
<v Speaker 1>who I really think we we I wish we had

0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 1>a Nemesis today. Uh So I found I was looking

0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.520
<v Speaker 1>around for stuff about Nemesis, and I found this amazing

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 1>thing that was a a hymn to the goddess Nemesis,

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 1>composed by somebody from ancient Greece named Mesomades. And this

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:56.040
<v Speaker 1>is a translation by somebody named d Yelled. So I've

0:15:56.040 --> 0:16:00.160
<v Speaker 1>got to read this. This, this boiled my brain. Winged Nemesis,

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:04.320
<v Speaker 1>turner of the scales of life, blue eyed goddess, daughter

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:08.560
<v Speaker 1>of Justice, who with your unbending bridle dominate the vain

0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 1>arrogance of men. And loathing man's fatal vanity, obliterate black

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 1>envy beneath your wheel, unstable and leaving no imprint. The

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 1>fate of men is tossed you, who come unnoticed in

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 1>an instant to subdue the insolent head. You measure life

0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 1>with your hand and with frowning brows, hold the yoke.

0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:32.800
<v Speaker 1>Hail blessed, immortal Goddess, winged Nemesis, turning the scales of

0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 1>life imperishable and holy Goddess Nemesis. Victory of unfurled wings. Powerful, infallible,

0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 1>who shares the altar with justice and furious at human pride,

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 1>casts a man into the abyss of Tartarus. Yeah. When

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.600
<v Speaker 1>I read that at home the other day, I like

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:54.800
<v Speaker 1>literally exclaimed out loud. Um. While I'm not usually a

0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:57.480
<v Speaker 1>big like cast people into Tartarus kind of guy, you know,

0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.400
<v Speaker 1>I don't love like eternal torment and hell and all that,

0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.360
<v Speaker 1>I do kind of wish for animesis sometimes to like

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:07.160
<v Speaker 1>fly in, scoop up the fatally vein and arrogant leaders

0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:10.840
<v Speaker 1>who you know, inflict their over confidence on everybody else

0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:13.760
<v Speaker 1>and kind of just toss him under the wheel. Yeah,

0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>I I too love this concept of a nemesis. Uh.

0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:20.359
<v Speaker 1>It's also a frequent subject of paintings. You'll see a

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.919
<v Speaker 1>lot of you know, European paintings of an nemesis that

0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:28.320
<v Speaker 1>really uh to take advantage of these angelic properties that

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:32.560
<v Speaker 1>are described here, this winged uh female form that is

0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:36.359
<v Speaker 1>beautiful and terrifying, an embodiment of something kind of like karma,

0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, divine retribution, the goddess that comes to avenge

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 1>against you when you become too prideful. Though, I do

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.399
<v Speaker 1>think it's actually more complicated than we usually think of

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.560
<v Speaker 1>hubris in the modern sense, right, because like the way

0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:52.360
<v Speaker 1>we use hubris, it really does just generally mean like pride, arrogance,

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 1>and overconfidence. But I think you were looking into something

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.560
<v Speaker 1>about how the ancient Greeks had a more complicated and

0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:03.040
<v Speaker 1>specific definition it gets it gets interesting. I was looking

0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:07.720
<v Speaker 1>at at the Oxford Classical Dictionary, and as N. R. E.

0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:13.680
<v Speaker 1>Fisher pointed out, it was really more of intentionally dishonoring behavior.

0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:17.840
<v Speaker 1>And the author points to Aristotle is providing a solid

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:22.439
<v Speaker 1>understanding of Greek hubrists. So Aristotle contends that Hubrists was

0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:26.440
<v Speaker 1>quote doing and saying things at which the victim incurs shame,

0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 1>not in order that one may achieve anything other than

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 1>what he's done, but simply to get pleasure from it.

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.399
<v Speaker 1>For those who act in return for something do not

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:39.560
<v Speaker 1>commit hubris, They avenge themselves. The cause of the pleasure

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.080
<v Speaker 1>for those committing hubrists is that by harming people, they

0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 1>think themselves superior. That is why the young and the

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.880
<v Speaker 1>rich of humoristic as they think they are superior when

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:54.080
<v Speaker 1>they commit hubris. This is so it's just sadism. Yeah, Basically,

0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 1>it's just like being mean for mean sake and being

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.400
<v Speaker 1>like hurting people in the dishonorable way. And I think

0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:04.960
<v Speaker 1>specifically because it makes you feel superior, right, Yeah, And

0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.000
<v Speaker 1>and it is also worth noting that like this is

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:10.440
<v Speaker 1>apparently really key to the system of honor and dishonor

0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:13.560
<v Speaker 1>that which really important to Greek society. That's right, I think.

0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:15.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean, one thing that's kind of hard to understand

0:19:15.960 --> 0:19:18.880
<v Speaker 1>is like when you read ancient Greek literature, you might

0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:21.359
<v Speaker 1>notice that they seem to have a different idea of

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:24.720
<v Speaker 1>morality than we usually do, Like for them that they're

0:19:24.760 --> 0:19:28.000
<v Speaker 1>concepts of morals often have more to do with with

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:31.679
<v Speaker 1>things that are considered honorable versus things that are considered

0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.399
<v Speaker 1>say uh, for the good of others. Uh. And you

0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:37.560
<v Speaker 1>know it almost what you were just reading reminds me

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:39.920
<v Speaker 1>of the classical Greek theory of humor, which we talked

0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 1>about in our Plato sex Machina episode, so that Plato

0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 1>and Aristotle basically said, this is hard to imagine because

0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.960
<v Speaker 1>it sounds so so hateful, But you know, these ancient

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.920
<v Speaker 1>Greek philosophers are like, things are funny because they make

0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:56.440
<v Speaker 1>you realize you're superior to other people. Uh So, Plato,

0:19:56.520 --> 0:20:00.640
<v Speaker 1>in his Philibus dialogue is discussing the nature of pleasure,

0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 1>and he says, you know, there are different kinds of pleasures.

0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 1>He's talking about why pleasures of the mind are better

0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.760
<v Speaker 1>than pleasures of the flesh, of the of the body.

0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 1>And he's talking about laughing at people, and he says,

0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the main things that's great about

0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:16.840
<v Speaker 1>laughing at people is that you can laugh at people

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:20.240
<v Speaker 1>who don't recognize their own misfortune. So there are people

0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:23.080
<v Speaker 1>who are stupid but they think they're smart, or there

0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.680
<v Speaker 1>are people who are ugly but they think they're handsome,

0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.880
<v Speaker 1>and that's really funny, right. Yeah. But in in in

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.200
<v Speaker 1>this it gets more specifically into the use of violence

0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:35.760
<v Speaker 1>um and Hebrews was taken very seriously in Athens, as

0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:38.880
<v Speaker 1>there was a law of hubris in this context, I've

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:41.600
<v Speaker 1>seen it define more specifically and in this kind of

0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:44.720
<v Speaker 1>this is basically what Aristotle said, but an even shorter

0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:48.040
<v Speaker 1>version would be the intentional use of violence to humiliate

0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:50.960
<v Speaker 1>or degrade again, kind of a sadism thing. It's like

0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm better than you, and I'll show you by hurting you. Yeah.

0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:57.160
<v Speaker 1>And and in Athens, unlike murder charges which could only

0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.439
<v Speaker 1>be brought forth by the family of the victim, charges

0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 1>of hubrists, like charges of treason or impeity, could be

0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:07.640
<v Speaker 1>leveled by anyone at anyone. So it's we're talking about

0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:11.560
<v Speaker 1>shameful conduct that ultimately threatens the shame on or building

0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:15.240
<v Speaker 1>blocks of society itself. You know, I do see a connection,

0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:17.399
<v Speaker 1>even though that this is different than what we usually

0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 1>think of as hubrist. I see what's going on here,

0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>like I see the the conceptual link, the link between pride, arrogance,

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.080
<v Speaker 1>over confidence on one hand and sadism on the other.

0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:32.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's sadism almost seems to kind of imply

0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:37.080
<v Speaker 1>and assumed pride and arrogance and over confidence. It assumes

0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:40.320
<v Speaker 1>a world view without stating it that one is, you know, better,

0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:43.240
<v Speaker 1>more deserving than other people, and that their faiths are

0:21:43.240 --> 0:21:46.159
<v Speaker 1>subordinate to your own. Yeah, that it is. It is

0:21:46.240 --> 0:21:48.880
<v Speaker 1>weird to think of this from like a modern standard,

0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:52.760
<v Speaker 1>because you know, I can think of numerous examples of individuals,

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:56.359
<v Speaker 1>especially like popular celebrity type individuals, where you think of

0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:58.400
<v Speaker 1>them and you think, oh, well, that person is clearly

0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:02.240
<v Speaker 1>guilty of hubre us, and yet by the Greek definition,

0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:05.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if they actually used violence against someone.

0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:07.840
<v Speaker 1>Like one of the examples, a political example that was

0:22:07.880 --> 0:22:11.800
<v Speaker 1>brought up was like if if one politician struck another

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:15.520
<v Speaker 1>during a speech, like that's but I don't know. In

0:22:15.560 --> 0:22:17.479
<v Speaker 1>ancient Greece, maybe that was that was an easier thing

0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 1>to occur in Certainly they're examples of things like that

0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:23.280
<v Speaker 1>occurring in American political history, but uh, I mean not

0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:27.680
<v Speaker 1>recently so but well no, but I mean I think, yes,

0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:30.359
<v Speaker 1>you're not coming to physical violence. But I could say

0:22:30.400 --> 0:22:33.119
<v Speaker 1>that that's an extension of the impulse you see, and

0:22:33.280 --> 0:22:36.800
<v Speaker 1>just sort of like bullying and blatant disrespect and all that,

0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 1>where you're you are assuming a position of superiority that

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:43.840
<v Speaker 1>denies that you would even have to to speak on

0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:47.200
<v Speaker 1>another person's terms. Yeah, so I think we see plenty

0:22:47.240 --> 0:22:50.400
<v Speaker 1>of examples of things that are certainly in the spirit

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:54.440
<v Speaker 1>of of Greek Cubrists, but not the definition of actual

0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:57.760
<v Speaker 1>physical violence. They fall short of that, but perhaps not

0:22:57.800 --> 0:22:59.800
<v Speaker 1>by much. All Right, on that note, we're going to

0:22:59.840 --> 0:23:02.239
<v Speaker 1>say our first break. But when we come back, we

0:23:02.280 --> 0:23:04.880
<v Speaker 1>will will get further into this question of over confidence,

0:23:04.880 --> 0:23:09.040
<v Speaker 1>and we'll start we'll start looking at it beyond mythology

0:23:09.119 --> 0:23:12.919
<v Speaker 1>and history and more at our actual daily lives, in

0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:19.600
<v Speaker 1>our actual inner world. Thank, alright, we're back. Okay, So

0:23:19.640 --> 0:23:22.439
<v Speaker 1>we all think we know what over confidence is. We

0:23:22.520 --> 0:23:25.159
<v Speaker 1>know when we see it. It's a common enough character

0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:28.840
<v Speaker 1>flaw that there are millennia old strains of drama and

0:23:28.920 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 1>comedy that basically just exists to punish it over and

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:36.280
<v Speaker 1>over again for our amusement and entertainment. Yeah, and of

0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:38.080
<v Speaker 1>course we always have to remember with tales like that,

0:23:38.400 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 1>this is not just about the subject of the tale,

0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:42.080
<v Speaker 1>but it's about the consumer of the tale. You know,

0:23:42.359 --> 0:23:45.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot of times we're we're taking in these tales

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:49.520
<v Speaker 1>of Hubrists not only to relish in the downfall of

0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:53.640
<v Speaker 1>these various villains in our lives and in our histories

0:23:53.800 --> 0:23:57.399
<v Speaker 1>and in our our our world. But also is is

0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:02.400
<v Speaker 1>cautionary tales, you know, like again warnings not to ascend

0:24:02.480 --> 0:24:05.679
<v Speaker 1>too high towards the sun, that sort of thing. Right. Uh,

0:24:05.800 --> 0:24:08.320
<v Speaker 1>So we know over confidence means, of course, having too

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:10.560
<v Speaker 1>much confidence, but you gotta go one level down from

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:13.760
<v Speaker 1>that to understand the idea. Try to define confidence, and

0:24:13.800 --> 0:24:15.760
<v Speaker 1>when you do that, I think you do run into

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:19.320
<v Speaker 1>problems because you discover confidence can mean a number of

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:23.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of different things that are related but separate. So

0:24:23.119 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 1>I was looking at a few just Dictionary definitions to

0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:27.720
<v Speaker 1>help get these, uh in order, and I think the

0:24:27.760 --> 0:24:30.280
<v Speaker 1>Miriam Webster ones capture it pretty well. So one is

0:24:30.840 --> 0:24:34.119
<v Speaker 1>a feeling or consciousness of one's powers or of reliance

0:24:34.200 --> 0:24:37.719
<v Speaker 1>on one's circumstances. So applied to the self, that's basically

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:41.240
<v Speaker 1>the statement I can do this, and that confidence could

0:24:41.280 --> 0:24:44.240
<v Speaker 1>be well founded or not well founded. Um. The next

0:24:44.280 --> 0:24:47.240
<v Speaker 1>one would be faith or belief that one will act

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:50.440
<v Speaker 1>in a right, proper or effective way. That one's a

0:24:50.480 --> 0:24:53.040
<v Speaker 1>little more complicated, so that that's not just I can

0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:56.159
<v Speaker 1>do it, but I will do the right thing. Like

0:24:56.280 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 1>an example of this that I run into every now

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:00.960
<v Speaker 1>and then its discussions of will happen if I win

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 1>the lottery? You will not be able to handle all

0:25:03.880 --> 0:25:06.640
<v Speaker 1>that money coming into your life, and you're not prepared

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:08.760
<v Speaker 1>for what it's going to do to your your your

0:25:08.800 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 1>social world. But then you think, I don't know, I

0:25:12.080 --> 0:25:14.399
<v Speaker 1>think I can handle it though I think I'm the exception.

0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:16.359
<v Speaker 1>I think I'd be able to put that money to

0:25:16.400 --> 0:25:18.280
<v Speaker 1>good use, and I don't think wealth will change me

0:25:18.320 --> 0:25:22.680
<v Speaker 1>at all. Right, You're like, I'll give it all to charity. Sure, Yeah.

0:25:22.720 --> 0:25:24.920
<v Speaker 1>And then there there, of course, is the third one,

0:25:24.920 --> 0:25:27.639
<v Speaker 1>which is the quality or state of being certain. And

0:25:27.680 --> 0:25:29.480
<v Speaker 1>this is sort of different from the others, but I

0:25:29.480 --> 0:25:35.080
<v Speaker 1>guess it's related. It's like trusting yourself to discern things correctly.

0:25:35.200 --> 0:25:37.560
<v Speaker 1>It's I know what's correct, I know what's right. My

0:25:37.640 --> 0:25:41.119
<v Speaker 1>beliefs are solid. Yeah. And of course this division can

0:25:41.160 --> 0:25:43.800
<v Speaker 1>present a problem for researchers. You have to study different

0:25:43.800 --> 0:25:48.159
<v Speaker 1>types of overconfidence differently to really understand the spectrum of

0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:50.360
<v Speaker 1>ways that it affects human life. And we'll come back

0:25:50.400 --> 0:25:52.679
<v Speaker 1>to that with especially one of the studies that we

0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:55.080
<v Speaker 1>look at in this pair of episodes. Right, Because if

0:25:55.080 --> 0:25:58.040
<v Speaker 1>we were just to divide confidence up into these three categories.

0:25:58.240 --> 0:26:01.160
<v Speaker 1>Like as above, you can easily have people all over

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:04.720
<v Speaker 1>the spectrum. Someone could be completely overconfident in their ability

0:26:04.760 --> 0:26:07.480
<v Speaker 1>to do something and then also be have a very

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:10.119
<v Speaker 1>reasonable expectation of, you know, whether or not they do

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:13.119
<v Speaker 1>the right thing. They might say, Oh, I don't know

0:26:13.119 --> 0:26:15.880
<v Speaker 1>if I can if I can actually make it across

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:19.280
<v Speaker 1>this tight rope. But when I when I, when I

0:26:19.320 --> 0:26:22.320
<v Speaker 1>fall off, I'm definitely going to soil my breeches, you know.

0:26:23.200 --> 0:26:25.720
<v Speaker 1>And I think there is ah, there's evidence that there's

0:26:25.760 --> 0:26:30.200
<v Speaker 1>a pretty big difference in how confidence in your abilities

0:26:30.200 --> 0:26:34.280
<v Speaker 1>and performance manifests versus how confidence in your the correctness

0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:38.240
<v Speaker 1>of your beliefs manifests. Um. But if we zoom in

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:41.560
<v Speaker 1>on specific types of overconfidence, we can find some of

0:26:41.600 --> 0:26:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the best supported effects in all of psychology. Really, and

0:26:45.320 --> 0:26:48.120
<v Speaker 1>so one very recent paper that we wanted to look

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:52.280
<v Speaker 1>at was published just this year in Psychological Bulletin by

0:26:52.359 --> 0:26:56.880
<v Speaker 1>Ethan Zell, Jason E. Strickhauser, Constantine set Akidas, and Mark

0:26:56.960 --> 0:27:00.000
<v Speaker 1>d Alika, and it's called the Better than Average Effect

0:27:00.200 --> 0:27:05.040
<v Speaker 1>in Comparative Self Evaluation. A Comprehensive Review and meta analysis. Uh.

0:27:05.080 --> 0:27:09.200
<v Speaker 1>And so this was a huge survey of existing published

0:27:09.240 --> 0:27:13.040
<v Speaker 1>research on something called the better than average effect, which

0:27:13.119 --> 0:27:17.880
<v Speaker 1>is the tendency for people to perceive their abilities, attributes,

0:27:18.000 --> 0:27:23.080
<v Speaker 1>and personality traits as superior compared to their average peer.

0:27:23.760 --> 0:27:27.240
<v Speaker 1>So what would that actually mean. Here's an example. Almost

0:27:27.400 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 1>everybody thinks that they are a much better than average driver.

0:27:32.480 --> 0:27:37.000
<v Speaker 1>Good drivers correctly think this, bad drivers incorrectly think this.

0:27:37.480 --> 0:27:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Few people actually think I am a bad driver, or

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:44.000
<v Speaker 1>even I am an average driver. But of course, if

0:27:44.040 --> 0:27:45.960
<v Speaker 1>you just go by the media, which is how this

0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:48.280
<v Speaker 1>question is phrased in the studies that look at it,

0:27:48.760 --> 0:27:52.040
<v Speaker 1>half of drivers are by definition worse than the media

0:27:52.119 --> 0:27:55.720
<v Speaker 1>at driving skill, and yet ninety something percent think they're

0:27:55.760 --> 0:27:58.320
<v Speaker 1>above the median. Oh that's a great stat I wish

0:27:58.320 --> 0:28:01.359
<v Speaker 1>we'd had that to bust out in our October episode

0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:05.919
<v Speaker 1>on driving and the Psychology of driving, because I'm I'm

0:28:05.960 --> 0:28:08.760
<v Speaker 1>reminded of one of the facts that the researchers of

0:28:08.800 --> 0:28:11.919
<v Speaker 1>one paper pointed out, and that was that, you know,

0:28:12.480 --> 0:28:16.359
<v Speaker 1>driving is this cognitively demanding task, and yet most of

0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:19.680
<v Speaker 1>us are able to acquire what you could consider mastery

0:28:19.800 --> 0:28:23.280
<v Speaker 1>of vehicle. Yeah, yeah, that's interesting, Like it's something that

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:26.560
<v Speaker 1>is inherently hard, but we do it. Enough that it

0:28:26.640 --> 0:28:29.560
<v Speaker 1>becomes easy within the context of human life, and then

0:28:29.600 --> 0:28:31.840
<v Speaker 1>we we think that we are truly better than most

0:28:32.080 --> 0:28:34.439
<v Speaker 1>everyone else at it. It's kind of like how playing

0:28:34.680 --> 0:28:38.280
<v Speaker 1>video games is actually inherently hard as a task, but

0:28:38.640 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 1>just if you do it enough for recreation, it's it's

0:28:41.680 --> 0:28:44.520
<v Speaker 1>second nature. It's totally easy. Yeah, but it does make

0:28:44.560 --> 0:28:46.320
<v Speaker 1>me think about like, say, the people who don't use

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:51.120
<v Speaker 1>turn signals, are they approaching it from the standpoint of

0:28:51.240 --> 0:28:53.360
<v Speaker 1>I am such a great driver, I do not need

0:28:53.600 --> 0:28:57.360
<v Speaker 1>to use turn signals because they very likely are. Because

0:28:57.400 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 1>this strikes me as like a true a true of

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 1>humorists that demands Nemesis come forth and and smite them

0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:07.760
<v Speaker 1>in the highway before me, and I guess sometimes that's

0:29:07.760 --> 0:29:11.240
<v Speaker 1>exactly what happens. But the point don't be that Nemesis,

0:29:11.360 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 1>you are not the godown Nemesis. Your road rage doesn't

0:29:14.120 --> 0:29:15.960
<v Speaker 1>solve the problem. And I think that is one of

0:29:15.960 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 1>the key aspects of a belief, and something like Nemesis

0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:22.959
<v Speaker 1>is ultimately to to keep people from acting out as

0:29:23.000 --> 0:29:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Nemesis themselves. You know, the idea there must be some

0:29:26.000 --> 0:29:30.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of divine retribution for you know, um, you know

0:29:30.720 --> 0:29:34.320
<v Speaker 1>the individual who who engages in this kind of classical

0:29:34.400 --> 0:29:38.840
<v Speaker 1>huberists like, therefore, it's not for me to intervene unless

0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna actually accused them of such in a legal

0:29:42.200 --> 0:29:44.719
<v Speaker 1>sense right now. Of course, the driving thing is just

0:29:44.800 --> 0:29:47.400
<v Speaker 1>one example, but it's a great example, and there are

0:29:47.440 --> 0:29:50.760
<v Speaker 1>tons of things like this that the better than average

0:29:50.760 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 1>effect says that, you know, for traits, for abilities, for

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 1>attributes that are perceived as positive, almost all of us

0:29:58.320 --> 0:30:00.840
<v Speaker 1>tend to think we're better than average, John, whatever that

0:30:00.880 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 1>metric is. Uh. And and of course that can't be

0:30:04.840 --> 0:30:06.560
<v Speaker 1>the case. You know, half of us are going to

0:30:06.600 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>be below average. A lot of us are probably gonna

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:12.480
<v Speaker 1>be clustered somewhere around average, given what the skill is

0:30:12.600 --> 0:30:14.560
<v Speaker 1>or what the trade is. And so the question this

0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:17.200
<v Speaker 1>study was looking at was, Okay, how strong is this effect?

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:20.600
<v Speaker 1>How robust is it? You know? So this review includes

0:30:20.680 --> 0:30:24.000
<v Speaker 1>quote a comprehensive meta analysis of better than average studies,

0:30:24.480 --> 0:30:27.600
<v Speaker 1>including data from a hundred and twenty four published articles,

0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:32.520
<v Speaker 1>two independent samples in more than nine fifty thousand participants.

0:30:32.560 --> 0:30:35.520
<v Speaker 1>And what it found is that, unlike some classic effects

0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 1>in psychology, which in recent years have been undermined by

0:30:38.560 --> 0:30:43.040
<v Speaker 1>failed replications and fragility revealed by meta analysis, the basic

0:30:43.120 --> 0:30:45.120
<v Speaker 1>version of the better than average effect is found to

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:49.200
<v Speaker 1>be extremely solid. It is super robust across studies, and

0:30:49.280 --> 0:30:52.760
<v Speaker 1>there's little evidence of publication bias. So the better than

0:30:52.800 --> 0:30:56.680
<v Speaker 1>average effect is definitely a real fact about human brains.

0:30:56.960 --> 0:30:59.360
<v Speaker 1>But that doesn't mean it always works the same for

0:30:59.400 --> 0:31:02.200
<v Speaker 1>all people are all types of evaluations. There are tons

0:31:02.240 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 1>of interesting little complications revealed here, uh and discussed in

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:07.960
<v Speaker 1>the review, and I think we can come back to

0:31:08.000 --> 0:31:09.920
<v Speaker 1>them in a bit. So. A minute ago, we were

0:31:09.920 --> 0:31:14.160
<v Speaker 1>talking about how overconfidence has actually different manifestations that are

0:31:14.200 --> 0:31:17.520
<v Speaker 1>not the same, and you might need to study them separately. Uh,

0:31:17.520 --> 0:31:20.120
<v Speaker 1>and I came across a couple of interesting papers, both

0:31:20.200 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 1>of which had the Berkeley professor Don A. Moore as

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:25.920
<v Speaker 1>an author. One from two thousand and eight with co

0:31:26.040 --> 0:31:29.960
<v Speaker 1>author Paul J. Heally called The Trouble with Overconfidence published

0:31:30.000 --> 0:31:34.200
<v Speaker 1>in Psychological Review, and one from ten with Derek Shots

0:31:34.280 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 1>called the Three Faces of Overconfidence, published in Social Impersonality

0:31:38.520 --> 0:31:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Psychology Compass. Now, both of these papers explore the idea

0:31:42.640 --> 0:31:46.960
<v Speaker 1>that there are actually three importantly different kinds of overconfidence

0:31:47.240 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>which are sometimes lumped together in in people talking about

0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:55.000
<v Speaker 1>the psychological overconfidence bias, and they're pointing out that they

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:58.960
<v Speaker 1>need to be treated independently, studied independently whenever possible. And

0:31:59.000 --> 0:32:01.640
<v Speaker 1>I think this is a really helpful place to further

0:32:01.800 --> 0:32:04.880
<v Speaker 1>categorize types of over confidence for the rest of our discussion.

0:32:05.360 --> 0:32:08.680
<v Speaker 1>So are you ready for the three types, let's jump in. Okay,

0:32:08.720 --> 0:32:13.400
<v Speaker 1>So the three types they highlight our overestimation, over placement,

0:32:13.680 --> 0:32:19.480
<v Speaker 1>and over precision. Now, overestimation is thinking that you're better

0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:23.080
<v Speaker 1>than you are, and specifically, this is an overconfidence in

0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:26.800
<v Speaker 1>your own qualities in an objective sense, just out there

0:32:26.800 --> 0:32:28.920
<v Speaker 1>and you know, floating in the void or compared to

0:32:29.000 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 1>some objective measure. So if you think you have five

0:32:32.080 --> 0:32:34.880
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars in the bank, but you really have three hundred,

0:32:35.000 --> 0:32:39.080
<v Speaker 1>that's overestimation. If you think you're taller than you are.

0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:42.440
<v Speaker 1>If you think that you never spell words wrong, but

0:32:42.520 --> 0:32:45.200
<v Speaker 1>in reality you actually do spell words wrong all the time.

0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:48.040
<v Speaker 1>If you think you can run a mile in six minutes,

0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:50.920
<v Speaker 1>but actually it will take you fourteen minutes. These are

0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:54.040
<v Speaker 1>all cases of overestimation. These are the sort of things

0:32:54.080 --> 0:32:58.960
<v Speaker 1>that other people or life itself will will call you on. Yeah,

0:32:59.600 --> 0:33:02.440
<v Speaker 1>typic play uh, And then This one's interesting because it's

0:33:02.520 --> 0:33:05.680
<v Speaker 1>it kind of has it runs a spectrum from just

0:33:06.000 --> 0:33:08.680
<v Speaker 1>pure self delusion, like you could if you were just

0:33:08.720 --> 0:33:10.760
<v Speaker 1>think I have a million dollars and you do not

0:33:10.800 --> 0:33:12.760
<v Speaker 1>have a million dollars. That's right. Thing. I mean, most

0:33:12.760 --> 0:33:15.120
<v Speaker 1>of the time people don't overestimate to that extent, but

0:33:15.160 --> 0:33:17.520
<v Speaker 1>they might overestimate how much money they've got in the

0:33:17.560 --> 0:33:20.360
<v Speaker 1>bank to a small extent, right, or you know, or

0:33:20.480 --> 0:33:25.120
<v Speaker 1>or I'm certainly thinking of smaller examples that that fit

0:33:25.200 --> 0:33:28.960
<v Speaker 1>into my life, like, for instance, me overestimating, uh, the

0:33:29.000 --> 0:33:31.160
<v Speaker 1>amount of time I have before I need to pick

0:33:31.200 --> 0:33:34.480
<v Speaker 1>my son up from school, or overestimating the amount of

0:33:34.480 --> 0:33:36.760
<v Speaker 1>free time I'll have to say, you know, watch a

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:39.680
<v Speaker 1>terrible B movie during a work week. This is very

0:33:39.760 --> 0:33:42.400
<v Speaker 1>perceptive of you, Robert, because actually we'll come back to

0:33:42.440 --> 0:33:44.600
<v Speaker 1>this later on, I think probably in the second episode

0:33:45.040 --> 0:33:48.920
<v Speaker 1>that exact thing you mentioned. The planning fallacy is one

0:33:48.920 --> 0:33:53.080
<v Speaker 1>of the most common and most robustly demonstrated types of overestimation.

0:33:53.360 --> 0:33:56.680
<v Speaker 1>People regularly think that they will have they will be

0:33:56.760 --> 0:33:59.960
<v Speaker 1>able to accomplish more in less time than they actually

0:34:00.080 --> 0:34:03.800
<v Speaker 1>we can. Yeah, another example would be, you know, when

0:34:03.800 --> 0:34:07.240
<v Speaker 1>we pack books to bring on say, vacations. Oftentimes you

0:34:07.280 --> 0:34:11.120
<v Speaker 1>can be a little overconfident in either are our reading

0:34:11.160 --> 0:34:13.960
<v Speaker 1>speed or the amount of time will have to to

0:34:13.960 --> 0:34:16.759
<v Speaker 1>to spend with those books. I know that feeling. Yeah,

0:34:16.760 --> 0:34:19.120
<v Speaker 1>when I'm when I'm traveling, I'm going on an airplane

0:34:19.200 --> 0:34:21.440
<v Speaker 1>or something, I bring like four books with me and

0:34:21.680 --> 0:34:25.080
<v Speaker 1>I end up reading like three pages of one of them.

0:34:25.120 --> 0:34:26.680
<v Speaker 1>All Right, So that's one that we can I think

0:34:26.680 --> 0:34:29.000
<v Speaker 1>we can all relate to for sure. Okay, Now the

0:34:29.040 --> 0:34:32.799
<v Speaker 1>next one, that's overestimation. The next one is called overplacement,

0:34:33.400 --> 0:34:36.480
<v Speaker 1>and this is similar but a little bit different. Overplacement

0:34:36.600 --> 0:34:41.080
<v Speaker 1>is the exaggerated belief that you are better than others.

0:34:41.160 --> 0:34:45.600
<v Speaker 1>So it's similar to overestimation. Accepted involves judging yourself relative

0:34:45.719 --> 0:34:48.759
<v Speaker 1>to other people instead of just judging yourself kind of

0:34:48.760 --> 0:34:51.560
<v Speaker 1>floating in the void or relative to some objective measure.

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:55.919
<v Speaker 1>So this would be like, you know, Jeff thinks, okay,

0:34:56.040 --> 0:34:58.640
<v Speaker 1>if we rated all the guys in the office in

0:34:58.640 --> 0:35:01.440
<v Speaker 1>in order of handsomeness, I would be in first place.

0:35:01.520 --> 0:35:03.239
<v Speaker 1>But in fact, if you did that, he would be

0:35:03.280 --> 0:35:06.680
<v Speaker 1>in sixth place. Uh, he's rating himself relative to the

0:35:06.719 --> 0:35:09.640
<v Speaker 1>other people in the office. Or Jeff thinks he is

0:35:09.680 --> 0:35:12.440
<v Speaker 1>smarter than all of his siblings, but actually he is not.

0:35:13.120 --> 0:35:15.640
<v Speaker 1>Or this is a very common one. I think Jeff

0:35:15.680 --> 0:35:18.600
<v Speaker 1>thinks he works harder than other people in the country

0:35:18.640 --> 0:35:21.359
<v Speaker 1>he lives in, but in reality he works fewer than

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:24.360
<v Speaker 1>the average number of hours. So to use a direct

0:35:24.440 --> 0:35:28.200
<v Speaker 1>comparison to differentiate between the two, overestimation would be thinking

0:35:28.239 --> 0:35:32.040
<v Speaker 1>you're five nine when you're actually five eight. Overplacement would

0:35:32.040 --> 0:35:34.880
<v Speaker 1>be thinking you're taller than Doug when Doug is actually

0:35:34.880 --> 0:35:39.759
<v Speaker 1>taller than you. So overplacement really entails a broad spectrum

0:35:39.800 --> 0:35:43.680
<v Speaker 1>of of potentially subjective measures, you know who, because who's

0:35:43.760 --> 0:35:45.960
<v Speaker 1>deciding who is the most handsome at the office, Like

0:35:46.000 --> 0:35:51.040
<v Speaker 1>what is the judging body for this? Subjectivity I think

0:35:51.040 --> 0:35:54.640
<v Speaker 1>plays a very important role in what types of overconfidence

0:35:54.640 --> 0:35:57.279
<v Speaker 1>were most susceptible to. Right, And we can talk more

0:35:57.280 --> 0:35:59.160
<v Speaker 1>about that as we go on. But yeah, I think

0:35:59.200 --> 0:36:01.680
<v Speaker 1>you're exactly right about that. Though you can frame it

0:36:01.719 --> 0:36:05.719
<v Speaker 1>in terms of objective measures like imagining who your coworkers

0:36:05.800 --> 0:36:08.480
<v Speaker 1>would rank or something like that, Like you could actually

0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:12.759
<v Speaker 1>do it and you could guess about how it would go. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

0:36:12.760 --> 0:36:14.319
<v Speaker 1>I can. I can see that, But it's still it's

0:36:14.400 --> 0:36:15.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, you're getting into questions of like, what are

0:36:15.920 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 1>the criteria you know, for for judging Jeff's appearance or

0:36:19.320 --> 0:36:22.080
<v Speaker 1>Jeff's intelligence. That's one too, even though we have we

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:25.320
<v Speaker 1>have various uh, you know, tests and ways of measuring

0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:28.399
<v Speaker 1>these things, but they're not without controversy, they're not without

0:36:28.400 --> 0:36:31.200
<v Speaker 1>some disagreement. And then we get into different types of intelligence,

0:36:31.239 --> 0:36:34.200
<v Speaker 1>you know. Um, and as far as work goes, is

0:36:34.239 --> 0:36:37.120
<v Speaker 1>it possible that Jeff works incredibly hard during an average

0:36:37.200 --> 0:36:40.600
<v Speaker 1>number of hours? You know? Or should we perhaps shame

0:36:40.680 --> 0:36:44.440
<v Speaker 1>Jeff's workplace for encouraging an oppressive work atmosphere where it's

0:36:44.480 --> 0:36:47.040
<v Speaker 1>just about how many extra hours you pour into the

0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:50.359
<v Speaker 1>day and how attractive you are. Yeah, and yeah, and uh,

0:36:51.560 --> 0:36:57.040
<v Speaker 1>it's so, you know, overplacement, definitions of overconfidence really can

0:36:57.040 --> 0:37:01.920
<v Speaker 1>get into this akey territory. I feel like classism, racism, sexism, uh,

0:37:02.080 --> 0:37:05.439
<v Speaker 1>meritocracy and and other systems that revolve around putting you

0:37:05.520 --> 0:37:08.239
<v Speaker 1>in your place and telling you exactly what you can

0:37:08.280 --> 0:37:10.440
<v Speaker 1>be and what you can accomplish. And it can it

0:37:10.480 --> 0:37:13.160
<v Speaker 1>can actually itself be a form of of sort of

0:37:13.200 --> 0:37:17.319
<v Speaker 1>the very form of hubrists that Nemesis would have punished. Yes,

0:37:17.360 --> 0:37:19.759
<v Speaker 1>I think exactly right. Yeah, that even that form of

0:37:19.800 --> 0:37:22.200
<v Speaker 1>hubrists we were talking about earlier, that's like the you know,

0:37:22.280 --> 0:37:26.440
<v Speaker 1>the cruelty to other people to show your superiority to them,

0:37:26.480 --> 0:37:30.440
<v Speaker 1>that clearly assumes an overplacement that like you, you are

0:37:30.520 --> 0:37:34.480
<v Speaker 1>just naturally assuming that you are better, more worthy, more

0:37:34.560 --> 0:37:37.879
<v Speaker 1>deserving of high status and superiority than other people are.

0:37:38.320 --> 0:37:41.399
<v Speaker 1>It's it's a relative judgment between you and some other

0:37:41.640 --> 0:37:44.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, the victim of whatever cruelty you're showing. But again,

0:37:45.080 --> 0:37:47.360
<v Speaker 1>the evidence is that we do a lot of this

0:37:47.440 --> 0:37:49.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of thing, and lots of it are are obviously

0:37:49.520 --> 0:37:51.880
<v Speaker 1>not evil and cruel like that a lot of it

0:37:51.920 --> 0:37:54.000
<v Speaker 1>just might be like, oh, yeah, I think I probably

0:37:54.040 --> 0:37:57.040
<v Speaker 1>work harder than than most of the people in my workplace,

0:37:57.040 --> 0:38:00.520
<v Speaker 1>but actually you don't. Yeah, I know, I just see,

0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:04.160
<v Speaker 1>I feel like there's a tremendous potential for cruelty and

0:38:04.200 --> 0:38:06.680
<v Speaker 1>this of course, and and to the to the extent

0:38:06.800 --> 0:38:10.000
<v Speaker 1>that like even even more moderate versions of it are

0:38:10.040 --> 0:38:12.719
<v Speaker 1>a kind of the you know, the tip of the

0:38:13.040 --> 0:38:16.040
<v Speaker 1>talent on the overall beast. You know. Well, I mean

0:38:16.160 --> 0:38:19.759
<v Speaker 1>it's definitely the case with with the driving example, you know,

0:38:19.840 --> 0:38:22.080
<v Speaker 1>so the better than average effect that I mentioned earlier,

0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:24.839
<v Speaker 1>that there's great, great evidence for this would be an

0:38:24.840 --> 0:38:27.960
<v Speaker 1>example of overplacement, right, because you're comparing yourself to other

0:38:28.000 --> 0:38:30.919
<v Speaker 1>people in general. You're saying, like, no, I'm a better

0:38:31.000 --> 0:38:35.280
<v Speaker 1>than average driver, but nineties something percent of drivers think that. Yeah, Okay,

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:37.360
<v Speaker 1>well we can we can come back to a discussion

0:38:37.400 --> 0:38:39.000
<v Speaker 1>on this. But let's get to the third one. Okay,

0:38:39.000 --> 0:38:42.000
<v Speaker 1>the third one is a little different than the other two.

0:38:42.120 --> 0:38:45.400
<v Speaker 1>The third one is over precision, and this is one

0:38:45.440 --> 0:38:47.359
<v Speaker 1>of the definitions that we talked about, you know, from

0:38:47.400 --> 0:38:51.439
<v Speaker 1>the More Everyday Dictionary understanding over precision is being too

0:38:51.480 --> 0:38:53.640
<v Speaker 1>sure that you know the truth. This is what we

0:38:53.719 --> 0:38:57.640
<v Speaker 1>might also call epistemic over confidence. It's being overly certain

0:38:57.719 --> 0:39:01.200
<v Speaker 1>that your beliefs are correct. So, uh, to go back

0:39:01.239 --> 0:39:04.480
<v Speaker 1>to Jeff, Jeff is a hundred percent sure that Vincent

0:39:04.520 --> 0:39:08.239
<v Speaker 1>Price was in Transformers Age of Extinction, Like, definitely, he

0:39:08.320 --> 0:39:10.360
<v Speaker 1>was the voice of one of the robots. He wasn't.

0:39:10.400 --> 0:39:12.640
<v Speaker 1>But Jeff will argue with you about this. He's like, no,

0:39:12.760 --> 0:39:15.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure I've looked it up before he was in there.

0:39:15.200 --> 0:39:18.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm positive. Or you ever done a trivia night, you've

0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:21.080
<v Speaker 1>been on the team with somebody like Jeff who's very

0:39:21.120 --> 0:39:23.880
<v Speaker 1>confident about all of his answers. You know, he's positive,

0:39:23.920 --> 0:39:27.359
<v Speaker 1>write it down. He keeps getting stuff wrong. I don't

0:39:27.360 --> 0:39:29.320
<v Speaker 1>go to a lot of trivia nights, but but I

0:39:29.360 --> 0:39:32.080
<v Speaker 1>can imagine it. I used to do trivia night. Uh.

0:39:32.440 --> 0:39:35.279
<v Speaker 1>It's so it's it's horrible to have somebody like that

0:39:35.360 --> 0:39:38.560
<v Speaker 1>on your team who's consistently that way. But I also

0:39:38.640 --> 0:39:41.640
<v Speaker 1>recall the feeling of being like that on an individual

0:39:41.719 --> 0:39:44.280
<v Speaker 1>question and then getting it wrong, and like it hurts

0:39:44.280 --> 0:39:47.799
<v Speaker 1>worse than anything. It's the most embarrassing thing ever. Oh yeah,

0:39:47.800 --> 0:39:49.960
<v Speaker 1>I guess I do kind of remember some of that.

0:39:50.640 --> 0:39:53.240
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I also value Jeff for just pushing

0:39:53.280 --> 0:39:56.360
<v Speaker 1>the conversation along and let's go. Let's go ahead and

0:39:56.360 --> 0:39:58.759
<v Speaker 1>select something and move on, so we can we can

0:39:58.760 --> 0:40:00.799
<v Speaker 1>be done with this question. Right, if you don't care

0:40:00.840 --> 0:40:03.319
<v Speaker 1>about the trivia part, Yeah, well, I mean it's like

0:40:03.480 --> 0:40:05.719
<v Speaker 1>the trivia part is just a reason to be there

0:40:05.719 --> 0:40:07.600
<v Speaker 1>in a bar, right, I mean depends on what the

0:40:07.640 --> 0:40:10.120
<v Speaker 1>prize money is. The prize money is generally like but

0:40:10.480 --> 0:40:16.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, yeah, now, of course we know that the

0:40:16.400 --> 0:40:20.799
<v Speaker 1>over precision is hugely relevant in in real world context,

0:40:20.920 --> 0:40:24.279
<v Speaker 1>and you know, in all kinds of everyday stuff conversations

0:40:24.320 --> 0:40:25.960
<v Speaker 1>you have with your friends, all the way up to

0:40:26.080 --> 0:40:29.720
<v Speaker 1>business in politics. Yeah, yeah, I was. This is interesting,

0:40:29.800 --> 0:40:33.279
<v Speaker 1>especially on the political um uh question. I was looking

0:40:33.280 --> 0:40:36.240
<v Speaker 1>at a two thousand eighteen University of Notre Dame study

0:40:36.480 --> 0:40:39.160
<v Speaker 1>on over confidence, and it pointed out that in order

0:40:39.200 --> 0:40:42.840
<v Speaker 1>to avoid the social punishment of over confidence, you know,

0:40:42.920 --> 0:40:47.279
<v Speaker 1>essentially being being called on on your your false uh

0:40:47.440 --> 0:40:50.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, understanding of transformer movies or you know, the

0:40:51.239 --> 0:40:54.360
<v Speaker 1>future of the economy, whatever it happens to be. The

0:40:54.360 --> 0:40:57.680
<v Speaker 1>authors argue that it helps to engage in plausible deniability.

0:40:58.120 --> 0:41:01.759
<v Speaker 1>So examples include claims that cannot be proven wrong in

0:41:01.800 --> 0:41:05.319
<v Speaker 1>the moment, though they may be proven wrong later, or

0:41:05.600 --> 0:41:10.040
<v Speaker 1>more importantly, using terminology that is not subject to close scrutiny,

0:41:10.120 --> 0:41:13.040
<v Speaker 1>so saying a particular war will be a cake walk,

0:41:13.280 --> 0:41:15.480
<v Speaker 1>for one example they bring up because ultimately, like what's

0:41:15.480 --> 0:41:17.520
<v Speaker 1>a cake walk? You know, you can you can make

0:41:17.560 --> 0:41:20.120
<v Speaker 1>the argument that, Okay, one person died, that's not a

0:41:20.120 --> 0:41:22.360
<v Speaker 1>cake walk and one life is important, or if you

0:41:22.400 --> 0:41:24.320
<v Speaker 1>could bump that, you could you know, it's totally in

0:41:24.600 --> 0:41:28.040
<v Speaker 1>the either the holder. Another example would be saying that

0:41:28.160 --> 0:41:30.360
<v Speaker 1>something will be made great. What does it mean to

0:41:30.400 --> 0:41:32.960
<v Speaker 1>make it great? What is what is great? Put up?

0:41:32.960 --> 0:41:34.960
<v Speaker 1>Put a number value on great. But you don't want

0:41:35.000 --> 0:41:36.880
<v Speaker 1>to put a number value on it because then you

0:41:36.920 --> 0:41:39.160
<v Speaker 1>could be shown to be wrong. So like the more

0:41:39.360 --> 0:41:42.400
<v Speaker 1>vague you are with your predictions, the harder it is

0:41:42.440 --> 0:41:44.440
<v Speaker 1>for somebody to later come along and show that you

0:41:44.480 --> 0:41:47.520
<v Speaker 1>were wrong. Right. And this is why the I think

0:41:47.560 --> 0:41:50.560
<v Speaker 1>the the trivia example, it's a it's a perfect example

0:41:50.600 --> 0:41:53.400
<v Speaker 1>to to bring out because it is a semi artificial

0:41:53.880 --> 0:41:56.960
<v Speaker 1>situation in which you're really putting your knowledge on the

0:41:57.040 --> 0:41:59.960
<v Speaker 1>line and just you know, and and and stating, yeah,

0:42:00.239 --> 0:42:02.279
<v Speaker 1>this is what I believe, this is the fact, and

0:42:02.320 --> 0:42:06.120
<v Speaker 1>then you're you're gonna be immediately uh called on it

0:42:06.160 --> 0:42:08.279
<v Speaker 1>if you're wrong. Well, I think you know one great

0:42:08.280 --> 0:42:10.760
<v Speaker 1>example we're talking about politics. You talked about like making

0:42:10.800 --> 0:42:13.680
<v Speaker 1>an economy better in the future, Like you know, politicians

0:42:13.680 --> 0:42:15.600
<v Speaker 1>would always claim to be able to do and they've

0:42:15.600 --> 0:42:18.480
<v Speaker 1>got different ways that they claim that will happen. I mean,

0:42:18.520 --> 0:42:20.920
<v Speaker 1>I think what people just have to admit in reality.

0:42:21.000 --> 0:42:24.400
<v Speaker 1>So there's a huge amount of uncertainty in economics and

0:42:24.480 --> 0:42:27.560
<v Speaker 1>political economics, like you can't actually predict what's going to

0:42:27.640 --> 0:42:31.400
<v Speaker 1>happen in the future. Economy You can make some very broad,

0:42:31.600 --> 0:42:34.960
<v Speaker 1>vague generalizations, but you know, you're not gonna know when

0:42:35.000 --> 0:42:37.040
<v Speaker 1>the recession is going to happen. You're not gonna know

0:42:37.160 --> 0:42:40.040
<v Speaker 1>exactly what effect the new tax or budget bill is

0:42:40.040 --> 0:42:42.120
<v Speaker 1>going to have. You can generalize, but you know, it's

0:42:42.160 --> 0:42:44.520
<v Speaker 1>hard to know for sure. There's tons of uncertainty, right,

0:42:44.560 --> 0:42:46.279
<v Speaker 1>But that's all. But at the same time, it's a

0:42:46.320 --> 0:42:50.200
<v Speaker 1>horrible campaign slogan, right, Yeah, we'll do our best, but

0:42:50.320 --> 0:42:53.680
<v Speaker 1>you know you can't be certain. Yeah. Yeah, so people

0:42:53.719 --> 0:42:56.680
<v Speaker 1>are going to continue to gravitate towards these statements, especially

0:42:56.719 --> 0:43:02.000
<v Speaker 1>these vague statements that protect the liar in question. Yeah.

0:43:02.160 --> 0:43:04.880
<v Speaker 1>So I mentioned these two papers that both had Donna

0:43:05.000 --> 0:43:07.680
<v Speaker 1>Moore is one of the authors, and they both of

0:43:07.719 --> 0:43:12.560
<v Speaker 1>them looked at what percentage of the existing papers in

0:43:12.600 --> 0:43:16.680
<v Speaker 1>the scientific literature on over confidence. We're looking at each

0:43:16.719 --> 0:43:19.840
<v Speaker 1>type of overconfidence, And so the two thousand eight study

0:43:20.160 --> 0:43:24.239
<v Speaker 1>found that forty six percent of papers were looking at overestimation, uh,

0:43:24.239 --> 0:43:27.759
<v Speaker 1>thirty two percent were overplacement, and twenty two percent were

0:43:27.800 --> 0:43:31.200
<v Speaker 1>over precision. And then they looked at it again on

0:43:31.280 --> 0:43:35.240
<v Speaker 1>papers that had come out since that one in the paper,

0:43:35.719 --> 0:43:39.799
<v Speaker 1>and they found that sixty percent were overestimation, overplacement, and

0:43:39.880 --> 0:43:42.879
<v Speaker 1>ninetent on over precision. One of the main ones we're

0:43:42.880 --> 0:43:45.759
<v Speaker 1>gonna keep looking at in this episode series is about overplacement.

0:43:45.760 --> 0:43:47.960
<v Speaker 1>It's about the better and better than average effect. But

0:43:48.000 --> 0:43:50.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm struck by the fact that in both of these analyzes,

0:43:50.719 --> 0:43:53.600
<v Speaker 1>the least attention is going to over precision, which seems

0:43:53.640 --> 0:43:57.800
<v Speaker 1>like perhaps the most important of these effects to study. Yeah,

0:43:57.840 --> 0:44:00.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, maybe it's one where we know, you know,

0:44:00.880 --> 0:44:02.799
<v Speaker 1>certainly that you know the study I mentioned is not

0:44:03.320 --> 0:44:07.480
<v Speaker 1>is not really presenting something that is not already intrinsically understood,

0:44:07.840 --> 0:44:12.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, lying and inflating estimation, basically playing the social game.

0:44:13.080 --> 0:44:15.319
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's what humans do. So maybe we're just

0:44:15.600 --> 0:44:20.560
<v Speaker 1>we have a built in a tendency to safeguard ourselves again,

0:44:20.600 --> 0:44:25.360
<v Speaker 1>except in semi artificial situations like tests and trivia nights.

0:44:25.680 --> 0:44:27.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's a big problem. This is of course

0:44:27.960 --> 0:44:30.680
<v Speaker 1>a problem in all kinds of arenas of psychology research,

0:44:30.760 --> 0:44:34.160
<v Speaker 1>but it's definitely a big problem in studying over confidence because,

0:44:34.160 --> 0:44:36.200
<v Speaker 1>as several of the authors have been reading have pointed out,

0:44:36.239 --> 0:44:41.040
<v Speaker 1>it can be really hard to recreate the types of

0:44:41.160 --> 0:44:44.720
<v Speaker 1>over confidence projection scenarios that occur in the real world

0:44:44.920 --> 0:44:47.279
<v Speaker 1>in the lab. All right, on that note, we're gonna

0:44:47.280 --> 0:44:53.240
<v Speaker 1>take one more break, but we'll be right back. Than alright,

0:44:53.239 --> 0:44:55.480
<v Speaker 1>we're back, Okay. So I wanted to go back to

0:44:55.719 --> 0:44:58.080
<v Speaker 1>that paper that I mentioned earlier in the episode, the

0:44:58.080 --> 0:45:00.040
<v Speaker 1>one that just came out this year in Psychological a

0:45:00.160 --> 0:45:04.239
<v Speaker 1>bulletin the the comprehensive review and meta analysis of the

0:45:04.280 --> 0:45:07.799
<v Speaker 1>existing research on the better than average effect, the thing

0:45:07.840 --> 0:45:10.440
<v Speaker 1>where people just tend to think that, you know, they

0:45:10.440 --> 0:45:13.560
<v Speaker 1>evaluate themselves as better than average on all different kinds

0:45:13.560 --> 0:45:17.359
<v Speaker 1>of qualities. So the researchers themselves in this paper from

0:45:18.040 --> 0:45:21.400
<v Speaker 1>and again that was zel at all. Uh. They define

0:45:21.440 --> 0:45:24.200
<v Speaker 1>it thus Lee, They say, b t a e is

0:45:24.239 --> 0:45:28.279
<v Speaker 1>the proclivity to rate one's current abilities, attributes, or personality

0:45:28.320 --> 0:45:32.759
<v Speaker 1>traits more favorably than those of the average peer. Now

0:45:32.760 --> 0:45:34.719
<v Speaker 1>there's a ton of stuff in this paper, but I

0:45:34.760 --> 0:45:36.680
<v Speaker 1>wanted to talk just briefly about a few of its

0:45:36.800 --> 0:45:39.960
<v Speaker 1>major findings. Of Course, as we mentioned earlier, the paper

0:45:40.040 --> 0:45:44.800
<v Speaker 1>found robust, highly replicable evidence for the better than average effects.

0:45:44.800 --> 0:45:48.719
<v Speaker 1>They did find different effect sizes given different scenarios, but

0:45:48.800 --> 0:45:51.759
<v Speaker 1>generally the effect is there. It is really how our

0:45:51.800 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 1>brains tend to work most of the time. So one

0:45:54.719 --> 0:45:56.879
<v Speaker 1>thing that I thought was very interesting, and I think

0:45:56.960 --> 0:45:59.600
<v Speaker 1>this ties into some of the vagueness that you were

0:45:59.640 --> 0:46:04.680
<v Speaker 1>just taking king about Robert. Abilities versus traits. The researchers

0:46:04.719 --> 0:46:08.320
<v Speaker 1>here found that the better than average effect is significantly

0:46:08.400 --> 0:46:13.000
<v Speaker 1>stronger for personality traits than it is for abilities. So,

0:46:13.080 --> 0:46:17.040
<v Speaker 1>for example, people on average are more likely to overplace

0:46:17.160 --> 0:46:22.279
<v Speaker 1>themselves for semi fixed personal traits like intelligence, honesty, or

0:46:22.360 --> 0:46:26.080
<v Speaker 1>attractiveness or sense of humor than they are to overplace

0:46:26.160 --> 0:46:30.160
<v Speaker 1>themselves on specific abilities like how well will I do

0:46:30.200 --> 0:46:32.680
<v Speaker 1>on this math test? You know, though they show the

0:46:32.680 --> 0:46:35.640
<v Speaker 1>better than average effect for both, the effect is stronger

0:46:35.680 --> 0:46:40.719
<v Speaker 1>for traits than it is for abilities. Does that make sense? Yes? Yeah,

0:46:40.760 --> 0:46:43.239
<v Speaker 1>and again yeah. Again. It comes back to something that

0:46:43.760 --> 0:46:45.880
<v Speaker 1>is easily proven and easily put into the put to

0:46:45.920 --> 0:46:49.360
<v Speaker 1>the task, like say your ability shooting what free throws

0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:52.759
<v Speaker 1>in basketball? Uh, you know, versus something that is far

0:46:52.800 --> 0:46:55.839
<v Speaker 1>more subjective. Yeah. And the authors they agree they think

0:46:55.840 --> 0:46:59.640
<v Speaker 1>this is quote likely because personality traits are more abstract

0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:04.120
<v Speaker 1>and less subject to external verification than abilities. And I

0:47:04.120 --> 0:47:06.760
<v Speaker 1>think that's not just like in the moment you're making

0:47:06.800 --> 0:47:09.480
<v Speaker 1>the prediction about yourself, you know, not just because you

0:47:09.520 --> 0:47:13.560
<v Speaker 1>fear embarrassment. I think your estimation of your own abilities

0:47:13.680 --> 0:47:17.919
<v Speaker 1>is probably generally more truly accurate because you have more

0:47:18.120 --> 0:47:21.640
<v Speaker 1>chances in your life to have your your self impressions

0:47:21.640 --> 0:47:26.640
<v Speaker 1>adjusted by meeting obstacles and you know, being regulated by them.

0:47:26.719 --> 0:47:29.759
<v Speaker 1>You actually very rarely run into scenarios in your life

0:47:29.760 --> 0:47:31.880
<v Speaker 1>where somebody can say you're not as smart as you

0:47:31.920 --> 0:47:34.000
<v Speaker 1>think you are, or if they can say that you

0:47:34.000 --> 0:47:36.680
<v Speaker 1>know you just like it's easy to dismiss. Yeah, I

0:47:36.719 --> 0:47:38.879
<v Speaker 1>guess I get the sense that you know, certainly as

0:47:38.920 --> 0:47:42.640
<v Speaker 1>you as you age, there's more of an erosion of

0:47:41.719 --> 0:47:46.000
<v Speaker 1>those tendencies as opposed to just you know, uh, you know,

0:47:45.840 --> 0:47:48.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, a sharp impact on them. Well, that's another

0:47:48.960 --> 0:47:51.319
<v Speaker 1>funny thing. There is a role of age in this.

0:47:51.480 --> 0:47:54.280
<v Speaker 1>The meta analysis revealed that the better than average effect

0:47:54.560 --> 0:47:59.320
<v Speaker 1>was negatively correlated across lifespan, So on average, the younger

0:47:59.400 --> 0:48:02.640
<v Speaker 1>you are, the more likely you are to overplace yourself

0:48:02.680 --> 0:48:06.640
<v Speaker 1>relative to peers. Younger people show more better than average

0:48:06.640 --> 0:48:10.040
<v Speaker 1>effects than older people. Just like Aristotle told us again,

0:48:10.080 --> 0:48:12.560
<v Speaker 1>he pointed out that the young and the rich are

0:48:12.560 --> 0:48:15.280
<v Speaker 1>the ones most likely to suffer from hubris. That's funny

0:48:15.280 --> 0:48:17.920
<v Speaker 1>I wonder what exactly explains that. Could it be that

0:48:18.160 --> 0:48:21.480
<v Speaker 1>throughout life you're literally just getting more information, like you're

0:48:21.600 --> 0:48:24.960
<v Speaker 1>learning more about your own limitations, and that tempers your

0:48:25.080 --> 0:48:28.480
<v Speaker 1>over overplacement about your own abilities. Could be I mean,

0:48:28.880 --> 0:48:31.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean again, we're kind of getting into two tropes

0:48:31.160 --> 0:48:34.840
<v Speaker 1>here that to varying degrees, uh, you know, can be

0:48:34.880 --> 0:48:37.840
<v Speaker 1>applied to to actual real life individuals. But there is

0:48:37.880 --> 0:48:41.600
<v Speaker 1>that idea of the of the the the prideful, rich

0:48:41.680 --> 0:48:44.880
<v Speaker 1>individual as being kind of like a man baby that

0:48:44.920 --> 0:48:48.520
<v Speaker 1>that has never never had to really be proven wrong,

0:48:48.640 --> 0:48:51.160
<v Speaker 1>that has just been surrounded by yes men for example,

0:48:51.239 --> 0:48:53.719
<v Speaker 1>that sort of thing. Yeah, but I I also do

0:48:53.760 --> 0:48:55.680
<v Speaker 1>want to admit, I mean, we don't really know. It's

0:48:55.719 --> 0:48:58.120
<v Speaker 1>possible that it doesn't have anything to do with getting

0:48:58.160 --> 0:49:01.160
<v Speaker 1>extra information. It could just be psycho logical facts about

0:49:01.160 --> 0:49:02.919
<v Speaker 1>the young versus the old. Well, I mean it could

0:49:02.920 --> 0:49:06.600
<v Speaker 1>it could tie into just the basic the difference different

0:49:06.600 --> 0:49:10.080
<v Speaker 1>psychology of of a young person who is who is

0:49:10.120 --> 0:49:12.840
<v Speaker 1>like an arrow leaving the bow, you know, Like the

0:49:12.880 --> 0:49:15.320
<v Speaker 1>whole idea is that you know, when you're young, you're bold,

0:49:15.400 --> 0:49:17.879
<v Speaker 1>you want to break away from your family because that's

0:49:17.960 --> 0:49:21.520
<v Speaker 1>ultimately how you're going you're you're just obeying the genetic

0:49:21.560 --> 0:49:24.160
<v Speaker 1>mission of the organism. That's true. It could It could

0:49:24.200 --> 0:49:27.480
<v Speaker 1>be that there are stronger pressures in favor of inflated

0:49:27.560 --> 0:49:31.040
<v Speaker 1>confidence in a younger brain. Here is another interesting one,

0:49:31.680 --> 0:49:35.360
<v Speaker 1>negative better than average effect versus positive better than average

0:49:35.360 --> 0:49:39.280
<v Speaker 1>effect the author's right quote. When examining thirty six matched

0:49:39.320 --> 0:49:42.359
<v Speaker 1>comparisons in which other variables were held constant, the better

0:49:42.360 --> 0:49:46.839
<v Speaker 1>than average effect was larger for positive dimensions the negative dimensions,

0:49:47.280 --> 0:49:51.040
<v Speaker 1>which suggests that the motive to self enhance or exaggerate

0:49:51.080 --> 0:49:54.560
<v Speaker 1>one's positive qualities may be more pronounced than the motive

0:49:54.640 --> 0:49:58.960
<v Speaker 1>to self protect or minimize one's negative qualities. Okay, so

0:49:59.040 --> 0:50:01.800
<v Speaker 1>if I give you a chance to rate yourself compared

0:50:01.800 --> 0:50:03.719
<v Speaker 1>to others, I say, you know, how would you rate

0:50:03.719 --> 0:50:07.839
<v Speaker 1>yourself in terms of your honesty? Versus I say, how

0:50:07.880 --> 0:50:11.719
<v Speaker 1>would you rate yourself in terms of deceptiveness? That's sort

0:50:11.760 --> 0:50:13.920
<v Speaker 1>of asking the same question. It seems the better than

0:50:13.960 --> 0:50:16.959
<v Speaker 1>average effect manifests in both like that you're more likely

0:50:17.000 --> 0:50:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to overestimate your honesty underestimate your deceptive nous. But the

0:50:22.040 --> 0:50:26.080
<v Speaker 1>effect is stronger for exaggerating the good trait than it

0:50:26.160 --> 0:50:30.600
<v Speaker 1>is for minimizing the negative trait. I wonder why that is. Yeah,

0:50:30.640 --> 0:50:33.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I guess it. You know, in a broad sense,

0:50:33.160 --> 0:50:35.200
<v Speaker 1>it just kind of comes back to playing the social game,

0:50:35.360 --> 0:50:39.160
<v Speaker 1>right of just of presenting yourself to your fellow humans.

0:50:39.480 --> 0:50:41.799
<v Speaker 1>I wonder if it plays into our our sense of

0:50:41.840 --> 0:50:46.520
<v Speaker 1>like having a rich personality, that we would imagine ourselves

0:50:46.600 --> 0:50:50.400
<v Speaker 1>as having strong positive qualities and allowing some negative qualities

0:50:50.440 --> 0:50:53.160
<v Speaker 1>as opposed to you know, just uh, not really getting

0:50:53.160 --> 0:50:58.440
<v Speaker 1>to adventurous with strong positive qualities but denying negative qualities. Yeah,

0:50:58.600 --> 0:51:01.600
<v Speaker 1>perhaps so this study also, they looked at gender. They

0:51:01.640 --> 0:51:04.760
<v Speaker 1>found no gender association. Men and women were equally likely

0:51:04.880 --> 0:51:07.719
<v Speaker 1>to engage in the better than average effect. They looked

0:51:07.719 --> 0:51:10.800
<v Speaker 1>at culture, and through some types of analysis they didn't

0:51:10.840 --> 0:51:14.400
<v Speaker 1>find much difference between cultures. But they said, to quote,

0:51:14.400 --> 0:51:18.000
<v Speaker 1>an analysis of eleven matched comparisons yielded a significantly larger

0:51:18.040 --> 0:51:20.759
<v Speaker 1>b T a E in the case of European Americans

0:51:20.800 --> 0:51:24.040
<v Speaker 1>than East Asians. It's possible that the better than average

0:51:24.040 --> 0:51:27.560
<v Speaker 1>effect was larger among European Americans because the dimensions were

0:51:27.560 --> 0:51:30.759
<v Speaker 1>of greater cultural importance to them. So, like the specific

0:51:30.800 --> 0:51:34.960
<v Speaker 1>traits being measured in that test might have been phrases

0:51:35.080 --> 0:51:38.000
<v Speaker 1>or traits that were considered more important in European American

0:51:38.040 --> 0:51:42.080
<v Speaker 1>culture as possible. Um. But then they also say, indeed,

0:51:42.120 --> 0:51:46.080
<v Speaker 1>the three studies that considered dimension importance found that European

0:51:46.080 --> 0:51:50.799
<v Speaker 1>Americans exhibited a larger better than average effect on individualistic traits,

0:51:50.840 --> 0:51:55.640
<v Speaker 1>but there was no difference between cultural groups on collectivistic traits. Moreover,

0:51:55.760 --> 0:51:58.600
<v Speaker 1>although the better than average effect varied by culture, it

0:51:58.760 --> 0:52:02.320
<v Speaker 1>was generally robust in both European Americans and East Asians,

0:52:02.360 --> 0:52:06.440
<v Speaker 1>which supports the position that self enhancement as universal. You know,

0:52:06.600 --> 0:52:09.719
<v Speaker 1>did these findings do remind me of our previous discussions

0:52:09.760 --> 0:52:14.600
<v Speaker 1>on how the how, how how the East and West

0:52:14.680 --> 0:52:18.319
<v Speaker 1>differ to certain degrees in how we view, you know,

0:52:18.360 --> 0:52:21.040
<v Speaker 1>the nature of character, whether it is something that emerges

0:52:21.080 --> 0:52:24.600
<v Speaker 1>internally or it is subject to the in the forces

0:52:24.640 --> 0:52:28.360
<v Speaker 1>of environment and culture. Yes, uh, yeah, the the greater

0:52:28.440 --> 0:52:32.800
<v Speaker 1>emphasis on context, and this also seems to tie into actually,

0:52:32.840 --> 0:52:35.680
<v Speaker 1>I think this was the context in which that discussion happened,

0:52:36.040 --> 0:52:39.319
<v Speaker 1>was when we were talking about fundamental attribution error, uh,

0:52:39.360 --> 0:52:42.520
<v Speaker 1>and the fact that it seemed like by some measures,

0:52:42.680 --> 0:52:46.360
<v Speaker 1>East Asian cultures were less prone to the fundamental attribution

0:52:46.480 --> 0:52:49.799
<v Speaker 1>error than like European Americans were right, Yeah, though they

0:52:49.800 --> 0:52:52.080
<v Speaker 1>were still prone to it. It just basically the numbers

0:52:52.080 --> 0:52:54.040
<v Speaker 1>were a little different between East and West, and that

0:52:54.080 --> 0:52:56.279
<v Speaker 1>seems to be the case here too, Like both are

0:52:56.320 --> 0:52:58.480
<v Speaker 1>prone to the better than average effect, but by some

0:52:58.560 --> 0:53:02.920
<v Speaker 1>measures it's a little strong younger among European Americans, especially

0:53:02.960 --> 0:53:06.960
<v Speaker 1>on individualistic traits. Here's one more that I thought was interesting.

0:53:07.400 --> 0:53:11.040
<v Speaker 1>They found that there was a medium sized positive association

0:53:11.120 --> 0:53:14.720
<v Speaker 1>between the better than average effect and both self esteem

0:53:14.960 --> 0:53:20.040
<v Speaker 1>and life satisfaction quote as anticipated, Therefore, the tendency to

0:53:20.080 --> 0:53:23.640
<v Speaker 1>perceive oneself as above average was associated with greater self

0:53:23.760 --> 0:53:27.480
<v Speaker 1>esteem and happiness. However, the moderate size of these associations

0:53:27.520 --> 0:53:30.319
<v Speaker 1>indicates that the better than average effect is not redundant

0:53:30.360 --> 0:53:33.359
<v Speaker 1>with self esteem and happiness. So they're saying, it's it's

0:53:33.400 --> 0:53:35.799
<v Speaker 1>clearly not the case that just like self esteem and

0:53:35.800 --> 0:53:38.680
<v Speaker 1>happiness are the better than average effects. It's not just

0:53:38.719 --> 0:53:41.879
<v Speaker 1>a one for one thing, but there is a correlation. Yeah.

0:53:41.920 --> 0:53:44.920
<v Speaker 1>I imagine that that some listeners might might have already

0:53:44.920 --> 0:53:47.680
<v Speaker 1>been been thinking on this a little bit, because we

0:53:47.800 --> 0:53:50.520
<v Speaker 1>spent a fair amount of tough time here in this episode,

0:53:50.920 --> 0:53:53.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of driving home the fact that you're probably not

0:53:53.600 --> 0:53:55.920
<v Speaker 1>as good as you think you are. Well, you might

0:53:55.960 --> 0:53:59.239
<v Speaker 1>be about some things not some things, but uh, you

0:53:59.280 --> 0:54:02.640
<v Speaker 1>know the ULTI that message is kind of depressing. You know,

0:54:02.719 --> 0:54:05.680
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of like, oh, well, I I thought I

0:54:06.080 --> 0:54:08.080
<v Speaker 1>was an honest person, but I don't know. Joe said,

0:54:08.080 --> 0:54:10.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm not. So I didn't say, I guess I should

0:54:10.400 --> 0:54:15.080
<v Speaker 1>feel bad about myself. Come on, But that is not

0:54:15.160 --> 0:54:17.239
<v Speaker 1>the message of this episode. No, I think it's still

0:54:17.239 --> 0:54:21.640
<v Speaker 1>like it's to be wary about positive self impressions. Is

0:54:21.680 --> 0:54:24.640
<v Speaker 1>not that you know you are actually really bad. It's

0:54:24.680 --> 0:54:27.960
<v Speaker 1>that our brains, on average, have a tendency to inflate

0:54:28.080 --> 0:54:30.520
<v Speaker 1>positive self impressions, especially when it comes to things like

0:54:30.600 --> 0:54:34.160
<v Speaker 1>personality traits. It's worth being aware of that fact about

0:54:34.160 --> 0:54:36.480
<v Speaker 1>ourselves and as it applies to others. Obviously, it's not

0:54:36.560 --> 0:54:38.520
<v Speaker 1>something that applies just to you. This is something that

0:54:38.600 --> 0:54:41.319
<v Speaker 1>appears to apply to human beings, right, Yeah, So I

0:54:41.320 --> 0:54:42.879
<v Speaker 1>guess one way to look at it would be, say,

0:54:42.880 --> 0:54:46.520
<v Speaker 1>on the subject of generosity, like, it's not to say, okay,

0:54:46.760 --> 0:54:48.520
<v Speaker 1>Joe said, I'm not as generous as I as I

0:54:48.560 --> 0:54:50.680
<v Speaker 1>think I am, and I should feel depressed over this,

0:54:50.719 --> 0:54:53.440
<v Speaker 1>but more we should realize that, Okay, if we value

0:54:53.440 --> 0:54:58.360
<v Speaker 1>our generosity. That's that's great. We may very well be

0:54:58.520 --> 0:55:02.960
<v Speaker 1>overestimating our generosity, and therefore that's just a reason to

0:55:03.080 --> 0:55:07.000
<v Speaker 1>lean into the thing you value. Yeah. Another way to

0:55:07.000 --> 0:55:10.440
<v Speaker 1>do it is to is to make yourself perception of

0:55:10.480 --> 0:55:16.080
<v Speaker 1>your positive traits uh dependent on real world performance. Uh. So,

0:55:16.239 --> 0:55:18.960
<v Speaker 1>for example, if you want to think I'm a generous person,

0:55:19.040 --> 0:55:22.600
<v Speaker 1>don't just trust your gut about these free floating positive qualities.

0:55:22.920 --> 0:55:25.680
<v Speaker 1>Prove it to yourself, right, you have to do things

0:55:25.719 --> 0:55:28.440
<v Speaker 1>that make it true. Yeah, what would a generous person

0:55:28.520 --> 0:55:31.719
<v Speaker 1>do in this scenario? And then do it? Yeah? All right, Well,

0:55:31.719 --> 0:55:34.279
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna go ahead and cut this episode off here,

0:55:34.520 --> 0:55:36.759
<v Speaker 1>but we will be back in the next episode to

0:55:36.880 --> 0:55:40.239
<v Speaker 1>continue discussions of over confidence. Uh you know what it

0:55:40.280 --> 0:55:43.040
<v Speaker 1>means from a psychological standpoint. Will also get into a

0:55:43.080 --> 0:55:47.160
<v Speaker 1>little bit into the business scenario here, which is which

0:55:47.239 --> 0:55:48.960
<v Speaker 1>I have to say, is a lot more interesting than

0:55:49.000 --> 0:55:52.120
<v Speaker 1>it sounds. Well, you're you saying there's over confidence in

0:55:52.200 --> 0:55:55.680
<v Speaker 1>business even or not believe it or not there is,

0:55:56.239 --> 0:55:58.279
<v Speaker 1>uh So, Well we'll discuss that as well in the

0:55:58.280 --> 0:56:01.440
<v Speaker 1>next episode. In the meantime, if you want to check

0:56:01.440 --> 0:56:03.960
<v Speaker 1>out other episodes of stuff to blow your mind, such

0:56:03.960 --> 0:56:05.720
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0:56:05.760 --> 0:56:08.920
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0:56:09.000 --> 0:56:11.600
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0:56:20.960 --> 0:56:25.200
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0:56:27.600 --> 0:56:30.760
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0:56:31.040 --> 0:56:32.560
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0:56:32.560 --> 0:56:35.040
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0:56:35.040 --> 0:56:37.160
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<v Speaker 1>I think four F four far far f