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Speaker 1: Brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. Investing in

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Speaker 1: local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's the power

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Speaker 1: of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Incorporated

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Speaker 1: Member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and

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Speaker 1: of course on the Bloomberg fur Badholds, who joins is

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Speaker 1: now in our Bloomberg eleven three oh studios. He's the

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Speaker 1: chief US economist at the Undo Credit Group. Great to

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Speaker 1: have you here with us. Let's start with what I

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Speaker 1: just mentioned there. There had been such optimism, enthusiasm for

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Speaker 1: stuff getting done in Washington, d C. It seems like

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Speaker 1: we've reached a pivot point here where there's some realism,

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Speaker 1: some skepticism, perhaps that this isn't going to happen, at

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Speaker 1: least not as fast as many thoughts. Yeah, maybe it's

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Speaker 1: more it's more realism right now. I mean, I still

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Speaker 1: think that what the market is really waiting for is

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Speaker 1: a big text card so I mean, to be honest,

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Speaker 1: the market does not care so much about the healthcare

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Speaker 1: bill as many many Americans, you know, for global financial

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Speaker 1: markets that if it's Obamacare or any other healthcare system,

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Speaker 1: they couldn't care less. But they know that the new

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Speaker 1: administration basically set up the sequencing. They first want to

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Speaker 1: repeal or replace Obamacare and then continue with the tax cuts.

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Speaker 1: So of course there's a ripple effect. If the healthcare

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Speaker 1: bill does not pass Congress, then that may have negative

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Speaker 1: negative consequences as well for the timeline of the tax cuts.

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Speaker 1: And so from that perspective there is more realism. They

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Speaker 1: are looking at it more and a bit more skeptic

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Speaker 1: away and and wonder I don't think whether we do

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Speaker 1: get a text cut at all. But when Yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: a fascinating piece on the Bloomberg yesterday about the order

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Speaker 1: of operation here. Uh, you know, they're their political motivations

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Speaker 1: for doing the Affordable Care Actor repeal first, but it

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Speaker 1: sort of laces the groundwork for tax reform. There are

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Speaker 1: elements their tax cuts in this particular bill, and I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of political concerned that if this

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Speaker 1: couldn't get through, that would mean the rest of the

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Speaker 1: presence agenda would have trouble as well. As you look

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Speaker 1: at this process, player, what does it tell you about

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Speaker 1: the prospects for a tax reform. Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: it shows the disc the disconnect, and I think I

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Speaker 1: think globally investors have to understand the the different dynamics

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Speaker 1: of US politics compared to to to what global investors

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Speaker 1: look at. I mean, we we have seen during the

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Speaker 1: election that there are topics much more important for US

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Speaker 1: voters than they may be for for international investors. And

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Speaker 1: as I said, UM, for many Republican voters, for almost

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Speaker 1: all Republican voters, UM, this Obamacare has been really a

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Speaker 1: red flag and they want to get rid of it.

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Speaker 1: And that's why it's politically important, I think for the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party to deliver, because I mean they have been

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Speaker 1: they have been if you want, benefiting over the lad

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Speaker 1: us now six years. I think since the two thousand

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Speaker 1: ten mid term election from Obamacare, UM and I have

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Speaker 1: been able to to really against this gain gain voters.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's why it's so important for them to

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Speaker 1: to do it first, to fulfill the pledge to their voters. Plus,

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Speaker 1: as you correctly pointed out, Obamacare has some text relevant provisions.

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Speaker 1: So in other words, if if they, if the Republican

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Speaker 1: administration would get the text reforms through, simplify the text code,

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Speaker 1: and then a couple of months later, all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden the Catillec text and other things kick in. You

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden make it more complicated. Um, I think.

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Speaker 1: And and now they have said they want to do

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Speaker 1: it first, they need to deliver because they can say,

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Speaker 1: you know, we we we changed the plan. Right now

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Speaker 1: they can't do so they have to come up with

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Speaker 1: with healthcare. And you just wrote a great piece I'm manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: really really smart, with a lot of theory to it.

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Speaker 1: Let me cut to the chase. Is it finally time

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Speaker 1: for a national policy and manufacturing? If we're going to

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Speaker 1: develop a little Switzerland or a big Switzerland with all

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Speaker 1: the politics and Mr Trump going out and saying I'm

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Speaker 1: creating jobs Bologni, Do we finally need a labor policy

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Speaker 1: to boost manufacturing jobs? Do you mean big Switzerland as

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Speaker 1: at Germany? Yeah? That would be Sorry why you're helping

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Speaker 1: get out of this? No, I completely agree, but I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't not necessarily call it manufacturing policy because you know,

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Speaker 1: I think, what what the US really needs is a

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Speaker 1: system of getting the education, house and order. We always

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Speaker 1: I always come back to that. Um. There's of course

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Speaker 1: a group, a relative small group of the population being

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Speaker 1: extremely well educated. But if you look at the broad masses,

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Speaker 1: there is some room for improvement, to say politely, so

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Speaker 1: I think that is where the government needs to step in.

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Speaker 1: And then you can also think about the the system

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Speaker 1: of people may leave after middle school that is very

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Speaker 1: often happens in Germany, and then you go to a company,

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Speaker 1: do an apprenticeship, and then you just you continue going

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Speaker 1: to school, but you learn only the stuff that you

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Speaker 1: need for your job. You get specialized experts for your field.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's an important reason why countries like

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Speaker 1: Switzerland or Germany or some other countries are doing so

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Speaker 1: extremely well. They produce high quality stuff and that justifies

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Speaker 1: them too, um to get relatively high priced in the

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Speaker 1: global market. Because let's face it, the US is an

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Speaker 1: expensive country with a high GDP per capita, so the

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Speaker 1: uys will never compete on a price basis whereas many

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Speaker 1: of the other global players, and it has to produce

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Speaker 1: high quality stuff and that for that you need a

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Speaker 1: very well educated workforce. Why haven't we seen the apprenticeship

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Speaker 1: model here. That was certainly something that was discussed at

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Speaker 1: the White House and Chancellor we sat where the President

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Speaker 1: excuse me, I spoke with. I spoke with Mark belly

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Speaker 1: Off of Salesforce, who was at a meeting at the

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Speaker 1: White House before that, that joint press conference with those

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Speaker 1: two leaders. It's something that he champions. He thinks he's

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Speaker 1: happening within his company and should happen more. Why why

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Speaker 1: is it not a phenomenon that's caught on here in

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Speaker 1: the US. Yeah, I really don't know. I mean I

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Speaker 1: I read a little bit about it as well. Some

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Speaker 1: people say, well, that's because the labor market is not

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Speaker 1: as strict as in in Germany. And German you basically

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Speaker 1: have the system if you do an apprenticeship in the company,

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Speaker 1: you stay there until you're higher, so kind of it's

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Speaker 1: an investment from the company side initially and it pays off,

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Speaker 1: pays back for the company over the next three or

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Speaker 1: four decades. In the US, obviously, the system is very different.

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Speaker 1: You were very often employed at will. So if you

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Speaker 1: do that apprenticeship, the company invests in you and then

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Speaker 1: you get then you get a better offer from somebody

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Speaker 1: else you leave. So maybe the the incentive for companies

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Speaker 1: to offer something like that on an individual basis if

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Speaker 1: you want is very limited. For that reason, we would

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Speaker 1: need something institutionalized so that everybody participates. So then you know,

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Speaker 1: then the incentive for one company it's as big as

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Speaker 1: for the other one because you have fluctuations. But maybe

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day you still end up

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Speaker 1: with well trained people. So it has to come from

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Speaker 1: the top tom asks about policy. We hear so little

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Speaker 1: about automation, and you have a startling chart in your

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Speaker 1: most recent chart book looking at UH divided by education

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Speaker 1: level of education, if you're at a lower level of education,

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Speaker 1: if you've been in secondary school, saying that's it. It

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Speaker 1: sort of like a forty nine percent chance that your

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Speaker 1: job could be automated. Why are we not hearing more

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Speaker 1: about that and how real is that threat? I think

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Speaker 1: we are hearing indirectly because that I so I wrote

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Speaker 1: last year a piece about robots because I wanted to

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Speaker 1: educate myself. So that's what's part of the results. And

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Speaker 1: I think I think we are hearing about the people

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Speaker 1: losing the jobs to the losers of technological progress. By

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Speaker 1: looking at the polls, I think Mr Trump, Brexit, all

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Speaker 1: the polls that we see in Europe is is the

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Speaker 1: result of some of these losers of globalization and technological

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Speaker 1: progress having been left on their own for too long.

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Speaker 1: I think we're seeing it. And the chart that that

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Speaker 1: you quoted is actually from an O C. D study,

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Speaker 1: and I was just happy to use the numbers. We

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Speaker 1: do that here. Yes, of course, No, I mean it's

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Speaker 1: and and and and that suggests that that it will continue.

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Speaker 1: So so established parties or politicians have to find a

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Speaker 1: way to deal with that because it is getting worse

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Speaker 1: if you want before it gets better in terms of inequality.

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Speaker 1: So technological progress is a good thing, but it produces

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Speaker 1: winners and losers, and we have to take care of

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Speaker 1: the losers. Help me here, and this is the way

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Speaker 1: of script, but I'll go with it. Harm help me

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Speaker 1: here with big Switzerland. What did you detect within the

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Speaker 1: body language Chancellor Miracles visit to President Trump? I mean

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Speaker 1: there was I'm sorry for Americans, it was lost in translation,

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Speaker 1: were a little subtly is in nuances. We didn't pick

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Speaker 1: up what did you pick up? No, I mean I

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Speaker 1: think it is very hard and I think that that's

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Speaker 1: that's Chancellor Market's big strengths too. To have that, how

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Speaker 1: can I call it poker face? Maybe all the time

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Speaker 1: she does not or barely signal anything if she is

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Speaker 1: in these meetings. I think her strength is she's very

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Speaker 1: well prepared, extremely well prepared. Um. She knows exactly where

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Speaker 1: she can give something and where she doesn't want to move. Um.

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Speaker 1: I was it was interesting that she did. I mean,

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Speaker 1: for her, given that was mercle her initial statement that

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Speaker 1: it is better to talk to each other than about

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Speaker 1: each other. I mean that was more clear than anything

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Speaker 1: I heard from Meracle. If you're used to other rhetoric,

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Speaker 1: then you may not notice that. But for Mercle, that

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Speaker 1: was very strong statement and letting out at Trump honestly.

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Speaker 1: But thereafter she gave something back, saying, yeah, we have

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Speaker 1: to increase our defense spending and all that stuff. So

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Speaker 1: she was willing to give that to the president. But

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure you know, the big criticism we've heard

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Speaker 1: from Petter Navarro and others that Germany has to move

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Speaker 1: to change the trade to plus. That's not going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I would kill for you to write again on oil.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't want to tell, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to be erk Nielsen and tell you what to do,

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Speaker 1: but I would kill to get her bundles from Oil.

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Speaker 1: In the next six weeks he is with Unit Credit

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Speaker 1: terrific research. Again, we protect the copyright of all our guests,

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Speaker 1: even Michael Barr. We do not send out Michael Barr's

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Speaker 1: news reports as those Batte Those are highly highly protected

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Speaker 1: her bundles. Thank you so much. I've been waiting for

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Speaker 1: this interview because April six seven, mark your calendars. What

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Speaker 1: are we calling Mara Lago the golf house. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they can golf. I think in the president don

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Speaker 1: stairs and will you be there at Mara Lago golfing

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Speaker 1: when the President and a teachership of China. I won't

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Speaker 1: be there. President she is not a golfer, So I

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Speaker 1: think I'll do I don't know. They're They're going to

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Speaker 1: have a cordial time. Um pleasant, but no no progress

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Speaker 1: and quite frankly, the problem is that President she has

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Speaker 1: no idea what the President Trump thinks of anybody else

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Speaker 1: one of my young troops. Why you again, just set

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Speaker 1: me a gift, a jif whatever you call it, a

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Speaker 1: little video of chance or miracle. Looking at the President

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Speaker 1: during the press conference and it was suitably hilarious. We're

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Speaker 1: not getting the same look from the leadership of China.

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Speaker 1: Let me properly introduce you Donald stas folks with decades

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Speaker 1: ever core, I s I on his China. What do

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Speaker 1: they think of this president? Um, they are. I'm pretty confident, astonished,

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Speaker 1: as I think many people are. We have a president

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Speaker 1: now who is behaving differently than any president that I

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Speaker 1: can I can remember. I think, quite frankly, he has

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Speaker 1: some sound bites in mind and but not uh, not

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Speaker 1: many principled views. And without an anchor of that sort,

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Speaker 1: you get this flopping around, this distraction, lack of focus.

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Speaker 1: And I think the healthcare thing is just one simple

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Speaker 1: symptom of that. We have the Secretary State Rex Deelers

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Speaker 1: and in Beijing and the Hall of the People meeting

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Speaker 1: with it with the President a couple of days ago,

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Speaker 1: laying the groundwork I gather for that visit to Florida.

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Speaker 1: What did you hear from him? Uh? It might give

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Speaker 1: you some sense of what's going to be discussed. What

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Speaker 1: might come out of that meeting in Florida. Well, I

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Speaker 1: think um he folk Uh primarily on areas that excuse me,

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Speaker 1: areas of agreement UH, and that's what that's what you

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Speaker 1: would expect. We know there are a variety of conflicts

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Speaker 1: on the trade side, on the investment side, UH, North

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Speaker 1: Korea and UH on and on. So focus on what

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Speaker 1: the two of you can agree to and kind of

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Speaker 1: kick the can down the road and talk more later

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Speaker 1: about what they don't agree on. I kind of asking

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Speaker 1: about what's happening with the PBOC the third day here

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Speaker 1: of the PBOC injecting more money into the financial space

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Speaker 1: in China. What's going on there? How noimalous is it?

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Speaker 1: And how concerns investors be by what's happening. You shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be concerned at all. This is UH. PBOC has UM

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Speaker 1: more difficulty than many central banks UM gauging liquidity demands.

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Speaker 1: In the very short run, these episodes come and go,

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Speaker 1: as this one will. China is in UH dragging mode

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Speaker 1: whatever it takes for a good economy in two thousand seventeen.

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Speaker 1: This is their selection year after last year was our

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Speaker 1: election year. So things will be fine. You know. We

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Speaker 1: watched as a Treasury sectary Steve Manuchen went to Berlin

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Speaker 1: and then to boden Botten and he was asked about

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Speaker 1: labeling China currency manipulator. He said, that's something that will

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Speaker 1: be discussed at these sort of semiennial reviews within the

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Speaker 1: Treasury department. Give us your sense of the timetable for

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Speaker 1: looking at the Chinese currency, what you expect to hear

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Speaker 1: from the Treasury Department. A Treasury seemingly is going to

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Speaker 1: go back to the typical schedule of April and October

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Speaker 1: reviews in which they look at various countries and decide

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Speaker 1: if that country is or is not a currency manipulator

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Speaker 1: in their view. I think they will again conclude that

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Speaker 1: they are not. I think Washington is is coming to

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Speaker 1: the view that they have precious little leverage over China

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Speaker 1: on trade and on the currency, and so the surprise

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Speaker 1: will be how little they do this year, not how much.

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Speaker 1: I saw a article yesterday on the cost to live

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Speaker 1: in Asia were leading away for idiocy. Is China pricing

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Speaker 1: their cities out of competition with how much it costs

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Speaker 1: to live there? No, I don't think so. Um and

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Speaker 1: it has become a lot more pricey, But the people

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Speaker 1: still want to live in the Tier one cities, and

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Speaker 1: just like they do in this uh in this country,

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Speaker 1: Boston and New York and l A and San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: Extraordinarily a pricy but that's not killing at Houston in Chicago.

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Speaker 1: If I'm playing golf in Florida, dun Strass, iimers whatever, Core,

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Speaker 1: good luck with the bracket as well. Perdue. As we're in,

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Speaker 1: we're there. Boiler up, Boiler up with Don Strass, I'm perdue,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina. Brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch.

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Speaker 1: Dedicated to bringing our clients insights and solutions to meet

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Speaker 1: the challenges of a transforming world. That's the power of

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Speaker 1: global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Incorporated Member

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Speaker 1: s I PC, David Garrow with Tom Keene in New York.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. If j Alfred

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Speaker 1: Prufrock measured his life with coffee spoons, we increasingly measure

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Speaker 1: hours with presidential tweets. Donald Trump tweeting moments ago, big

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Speaker 1: day for healthcare, working hard, and we'll use that as

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Speaker 1: a peg for our next conversation. Here with Zeke Emmanuel,

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Speaker 1: chair the Medical Ethics and Health Policy Department at the

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Speaker 1: University of Pennsylvania, who had an audience with the President

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Speaker 1: just a couple of days ago at the White House.

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Speaker 1: Great of you to join us, Thanks very much for

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Speaker 1: being here. And without divulging too much detail of your

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Speaker 1: conversation with the President, what did you want to convey

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Speaker 1: to him about health reform generally, what's working and what's not. Oh.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to convey to him, as I've said in

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Speaker 1: lots of other public venues, including The New York Times

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Speaker 1: and Fox, that I think the uh Paul Ryan bill

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Speaker 1: in the House is not a good bill and he

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Speaker 1: should not support it. It It does not realize his goals.

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Speaker 1: His goals are, as he has said many times, he

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Speaker 1: wants to uh, um, you know, get coverage for all

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Speaker 1: Americans uh. And he has not said access, he has

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Speaker 1: said coverage. And second of all, he wants uh to

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Speaker 1: bring healthcare costs down so that healthcare is affordable to

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Speaker 1: more Americans. He also says that he would like to

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Speaker 1: negotiate drug prices because drug prices are too high. This

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Speaker 1: bill does none of those things, as we all know.

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Speaker 1: According to the CBO, it will dramatically increase the number

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Speaker 1: of uninsured. Maybe twenty four million isn't exactly the right number,

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Speaker 1: but it's certainly gonna be tens of millions of people

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Speaker 1: are gonna lose insurance. And we've already heard from a

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Speaker 1: number of insurers that if this bill passes, they are

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Speaker 1: jacking up their premium uh and even the CBO said

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Speaker 1: that by premiums ago up, then they'll decline only for

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Speaker 1: young people and increase for older people. This is not

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Speaker 1: a bill that realizes the president's objectives or the objectives

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Speaker 1: that all of us should have the healthcare system. Let

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Speaker 1: me talk about those objectives a little bit more here.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious why when we talk about healthcare policy it

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Speaker 1: happens to happen in these very time limited portions. In

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Speaker 1: other words, it's so important, Yet we see this court

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Speaker 1: of being moved through Congress rather quickly. We saw the

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Speaker 1: same thing with the affordable character. Wait wait wait wait

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Speaker 1: wait wait wait a sec Okay, no, you're misrepresenting history,

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Speaker 1: and I cannot let that go on. Well, it was

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Speaker 1: a nine month process. It was excuse me, we started

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Speaker 1: on January and we passed it on Marche. That's a

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Speaker 1: fourteen month process. And this is less than sixty days

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Speaker 1: that it was not equivalent. When we introduced the bill

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Speaker 1: in the House, matcy Posy introduced the bill in the House,

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Speaker 1: there was a hundred and sixteen days before it was

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Speaker 1: voted on. Here they're sixteen days. These are not equivalent.

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Speaker 1: The Republicans are not doing what the Democrats did. We

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Speaker 1: tried to ogociate. We had the Gang of Four, the

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Speaker 1: Gang of six, the Gang of eight to try to

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Speaker 1: negotiate with Republicans. They haven't even called a single Democrat

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Speaker 1: to the best of anyone's knowledge, to talk. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: this is not equivalent. This is much worse. Alright, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to have the equivalency. It's just like the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: That's false. You hear from the House speaker, however, uh

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Speaker 1: that this has been something on which this party has

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Speaker 1: run for cycle after cycle after cycle. He's rejecting the

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Speaker 1: comment that you just made there, that this is something

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Speaker 1: big force through now. He's run on repeal and replace,

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Speaker 1: and as many of us have noted multiple times, he's

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Speaker 1: never had a replacement bill. He's never articulated something until

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Speaker 1: now when he had to go out there. The reason

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Speaker 1: he never articulated something is because he got a terrible

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Speaker 1: CBO score. If he had to put in a bill before, uh,

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Speaker 1: he would never I mean the score is devastatingly bad.

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Speaker 1: I didn't mean for the question to be offensive. What

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Speaker 1: I intended to to get to here is it doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like it's very diological. It's hard for politicians to

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Speaker 1: talk about what in fact is wrong without their care

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Speaker 1: in this country and to work it out. Why is

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Speaker 1: that the case in other ways? Why does it have

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Speaker 1: to come to sort of a crisis point like this?

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Speaker 1: Wait a second. I'm the policy brother. I'm the guy

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Speaker 1: who thinks of what is the best policy for the

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Speaker 1: health care system? And as I have said multiple times,

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Speaker 1: I do believe there's a bipartisan approach. I don't think

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Speaker 1: the alternative is keep the a C A uh do

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Speaker 1: Representative Rand Paul's approach of uh, you know, just repeal

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Speaker 1: and no replacement, or uh your only other approaches Paul Ryan,

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Speaker 1: there's other approaches, including a bipartisan approach that begins where

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Speaker 1: there's overlap. And I don't know why politicians can't seem

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Speaker 1: to come to rational reasonable agreement. You know, you'd have

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Speaker 1: to ask my political brother. He understands those things better

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Speaker 1: than these A little occupied, Zeke, We're going to continue that.

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Speaker 1: I want to do the next block. He's well, but

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Speaker 1: let me ask you this Mark Meadows got jawed uh

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Speaker 1: chewed out yesterday by the President United States. He from

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Speaker 1: western North Carolina. If I go down to the former St.

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Speaker 1: Joseph's Hospital in Asheville, North Carolina, or I go to

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Speaker 1: your Beth Israel Hospital in Boston, let me ask the

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Speaker 1: question of the same doctors at St. Joseph's and the

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Speaker 1: doctors at Beth Israel. What's in this for the doctors.

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Speaker 1: You're a doctor, You're like a real doctor. What do

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Speaker 1: the doctors want out of this? Donnybrook in Washington, let

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Speaker 1: me let me emphasize three points. First, the A M

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Speaker 1: A has come out against this bill. Doctors are are,

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Speaker 1: I think, very strongly against this bill. UM in the

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Speaker 1: American public ought to notice doctors were very nervous about

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Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Actors. They didn't understand it. Initially it

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Speaker 1: was complicated. UM. I run a panel every year at

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Speaker 1: Wharton where I teach UM for my students of I

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Speaker 1: bring in doctors, and you know, the first few years

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Speaker 1: after the passage of the Affordable Character doctors were like

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Speaker 1: kind of negative. I've got to do this electronic health records.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the system is gonna be now.

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Speaker 1: They love it. The last few years I've been doing it.

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Speaker 1: Doctors so much better. Let's do the Zeke, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: come back. Zeke Emmanuel with is fired up about what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing and of course the drama that will see

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Speaker 1: today and in Joe tomorrow in Washington. Stay in touch

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg News Washington. Are good, Kevin surreally as well

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Speaker 1: about what we'll see forward um on healthcare. Zeke Emmanuel University,

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Speaker 1: Professor at Penn, Senior Fellow at the Center of American Progress,

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Speaker 1: an expert on health policy. We're having a spirited discussion

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Speaker 1: about what's going on on Capitol Hill this week. Let

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Speaker 1: me ask you about what the insurance companies are saying.

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Speaker 1: We've watched in these weeks and months leading up to today,

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Speaker 1: a number of insurers pulling out of markets. We saw

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Speaker 1: that with Etna and others. They say it's not competitive

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Speaker 1: for them to be there. Certainly, this is something that

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Speaker 1: at face is worrisome to consumers. What's the solution here?

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Speaker 1: How do you get insurers to get back into those markets? Right?

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Speaker 1: You have to have consumers in the markets who have

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Speaker 1: to have UH protect them against the uncertainties of this market.

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Speaker 1: You know, any to any new health insurance market is

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Speaker 1: a problem because you don't know who's gonna come in,

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Speaker 1: you don't know what their health utilization is. To be

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Speaker 1: pricing a the product in that situation is uncertain. That's

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Speaker 1: why we've built in risk corders reinsurance in case people

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Speaker 1: are more expensive than they anticipated. Those were part of

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Speaker 1: the the rules of the game going forward. We adopted

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Speaker 1: them from the Republicans who introduced it in Medicare Part

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Speaker 1: d UM and we need and then Marco Rubio changed

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Speaker 1: the rules. He pulled those things out and upset the

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Speaker 1: insurance marketplace. We need to put them back in. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, Representative Speaker Ryan's bill has a hundred

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Speaker 1: billion dollars and a stability fund for exactly this kind

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Speaker 1: of thing, reinsurance making sure that people are high costs

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Speaker 1: do not affect the insurance bottom line. That will definitely

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Speaker 1: that kind of thing would definitely stabilize the market, and

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Speaker 1: we believe in that. We also think you need to

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Speaker 1: probably adjust the subsidies. Uh and uh, you know my

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Speaker 1: favorite approaches. Forget the mandate, forget the penalty if you're

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Speaker 1: not continuously insured. Let's go to auto enrollment for people

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Speaker 1: like we have in medicare apart a. I think there

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Speaker 1: are those kind of changes that will you know, could

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Speaker 1: substantially UH get them stabilized the market. But we should

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Speaker 1: also note that the CBO, when they scored the bill said, look,

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Speaker 1: the marketplaces are stable, They're going to continue, they're not

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Speaker 1: going under, they're not collapsing. That claim by Representative Ryan

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Speaker 1: and others that the marketplaces are collapsing simply false. Okay,

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Speaker 1: fake news again. Last question here, we heard from the

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Speaker 1: President in that speech before a joint session of Congress

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Speaker 1: he wants to have insurance available across state lines. I

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Speaker 1: imagine that might be something he brought up with you

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Speaker 1: when you visit with him at the White House. What's

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00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 1: the rationale for that, How likely is that to happen,

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00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:44,719
Speaker 1: and what difference could that make? Well, let's inform your listeners.

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00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 1: Three states already have UH allow insurers to come across

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Speaker 1: state lines, Maine and Georgia, and I forget the third one. Okay,

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00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: not one single insur has taken it up, even though

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Speaker 1: it's legal in those states. And the reason is it's complex.

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Speaker 1: Setting up a network is complex unless you have enough

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Speaker 1: UH people willing to buy it's too expensive to set

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00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 1: up a network and other things, so it's and even

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00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: if it got set up, most economists estimated it would

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00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: hardly affect premiums at the wall. So unless you're gonna

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00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: have a race to the bottom where insurers can come

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00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: in and basically offer these horrible medical insurance plans that

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00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 1: are very skinny, it's not really going to do a big,

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00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: big job. And then if it does a big job,

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Speaker 1: it would do a big job by depriving people of

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Speaker 1: coverage for basic uh items. So it's not a solution.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not opposed to it, but it's hardly

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Speaker 1: the of a solution. Ze, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being this. We look forward to speaking to you again

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00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: because he is a laurier from Yale. Robert Schiller, Bob,

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Speaker 1: good morning. We'll make it quick today. You wrote a

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Speaker 1: book called Finding in the Good Society. Where did the

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00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 1: good Society go? Well, we've got the tough business man

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00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: that we wanted. I guess people want someone who can

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00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: say no, who can say you're fired. They got him. Uh,

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00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: that's it's a whole different view. But it isn't a

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00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: whole different my book, Tin and send the good society

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00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: was about the business world and what it can do

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00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: for society. Ultimately, we owe much or most of our

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00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 1: well being to business. And uh so Trump is on

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00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 1: that wavelength, on the wavelengths in that book. What's your

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00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: sense of what's happening in Washington today? Uh there was

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00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 1: such enthusiasm, such optimism that so much was going to

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00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: get done so quickly. We're not. We're seeing that not happen.

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00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,199
Speaker 1: Give us your your take on what's going on there?

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Speaker 1: Is this anything different? Are we seeing anything new out

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00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 1: of Washington, d C? Today? Well? Unfortunately, one of my

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00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 1: grapes about Donald Trump is that he over implifies or

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00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 1: implies it's easy to fix these problems. We have a

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00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: health care system that I applaud. It has some chinks

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00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 1: in it. We can work on improving it. But the

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00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: rhetoric is as if the people who framed it were

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00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 1: We're just stupid or incompetent or biased. That isn't what happened.

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Speaker 1: We have a system that could be improved, but you know,

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00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: it's just not going to be so easy to fix it.

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Speaker 1: Let me ask you lastly, you're just about growth and

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00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 1: the degree to which all of this could affect growth.

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00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: That being a healthcare reform or tax reform, or indeed

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00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: an infrastructure package if we were to get that. How

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00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 1: optimistic are you that we can see the growth trajectory

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Speaker 1: change in this country. Well, you know, we measure growth

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00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: by something called gross domestic product. I I do feel

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Speaker 1: that loosening regulations will tend to boost that. But the

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00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: problem is that gross domestic product isn't the best possible

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Speaker 1: measure of well being for the nation. So things like

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Speaker 1: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which were created by Dodd

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Speaker 1: Frank might be eliminated or handicapps that would actually help

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Speaker 1: d DP, but I think it would hurt the overall welfare.

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Speaker 1: Professor Schuler, thank you so much. Too short of visit today,

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Speaker 1: We'll do it again for a much longer time. He

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Speaker 1: is with Yale University, and of course a classic book

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00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: on the exuberance of our markets. Thanks for listening to

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00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud,

501
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm out on Twitter

502
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: at Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before

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Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: radio Ye brought you by Bank of America. Mary Lynch

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00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: dedicated to bringing our clients insights and solutions to meet

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00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 1: the challenges of a transforming world. That's the power of

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00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith, Incorporated, Member

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Speaker 1: s I p C