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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, We're growing in.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting it to cash. We'll see most gamblers when

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Speaker 1: they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 2: You want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are away. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: AFC Win Totals Episode Part one of two. In this episode,

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Speaker 1: we'll have the AFC East and the AFC North covering

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Speaker 1: all their win total, super Bowl odds and futures team

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Speaker 1: by team, and then part two will be the AFC

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Speaker 1: South and the a f C West, followed by the

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Speaker 1: NFC sput into the same two parts. So joining me

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Speaker 1: none better than the Prime Minister of de General Nation,

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Speaker 1: one of the sharpest NFL betting minds in the biz.

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Speaker 1: Stucky stuck, what is going on? My dude?

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Speaker 2: Oh man? So to spent the entire weekend updating everything

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Speaker 2: for NFL. It was a good six year run until

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Speaker 2: last year where I was never been more wrong. So

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Speaker 2: I'm stitching for this season to start. I'm just so

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Speaker 2: excited to talk AFC in this episode NFC next. So

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Speaker 2: if you're listening to this one. NFC will be out

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Speaker 2: shortly thereafter, but I can't wait for this season to start.

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Speaker 2: So it's this is the official you know, the gun

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Speaker 2: is going off from here on out. It's just living, breathing,

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Speaker 2: and being obsessed with the NFL from now through the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: I dig it, man, It's that this is the time

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Speaker 1: of year I love. So let's get right to it.

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Speaker 1: And I just want to set up some general trends

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Speaker 1: that I found in each of these future of its markets,

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Speaker 1: just so as we kind of talk about these odds

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Speaker 1: and these numbers, people have some contexts out there. So

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Speaker 1: for win totals, the sweet spot has been five to

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Speaker 1: six and a half, So the five, five and a half,

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Speaker 1: six and six and a half win totals in that

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Speaker 1: range fifty five percent to the over since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and two, all others fifty two percent to the under.

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Speaker 1: And then if you look Justin's twenty twenty one when

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Speaker 1: we expanded to seventeen games, sixty five percent to the

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Speaker 1: over for win totals in the five to six and

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Speaker 1: a half range. All others are fifty six percent under.

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds. Every Super Bowl winner since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and two forty to one or less and ranked in

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Speaker 1: the top fifteen in Super Bowl odds divisional odds. The

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Speaker 1: only real plus ev spot in terms of UH rank

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Speaker 1: is the last ranked team. You get about a three

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Speaker 1: percent edge. Twelve percent finished number one nine point one

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Speaker 1: percent were implied, so about a three point one percent

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Speaker 1: edge since three. And in terms of playoff odds, I.

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Speaker 2: Do have a last place team I bet to win

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Speaker 2: the division, but that's it's a teaser that's in the

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Speaker 2: NFC episode.

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Speaker 1: Love It UH. I think I'm pretty sure I could

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Speaker 1: guess which one it is, but episode yeah. And in

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Speaker 1: playoff odds, the plus ev spot in terms of odds

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Speaker 1: has been from UH plus two hundred and up thirty

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Speaker 1: one percent of those teams priced at that or higher

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Speaker 1: make it versus an implied odds of just twenty one percent,

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Speaker 1: so you're getting just under a ten percent edge. Everything

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Speaker 1: else is pretty much the opposite, although about over the

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Speaker 1: last death so we could apply that to plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty and up as well. A little bit smaller of

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Speaker 1: an edge though, so those are kind of the historical trends.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't mean, though, continue, but just some good context. AFC

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Speaker 1: East let's go in order of win totals. Actually, I'll

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Speaker 1: just give the win totals Buffalos eleven and a half

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Speaker 1: juice to the over, New England, and Miami seven and

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Speaker 1: a half juice to the over. Sometimes just the eight

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Speaker 1: and a half juice to the under. And then the

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Speaker 1: Jets are in last place at five and a half

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Speaker 1: juice to the over. The only team that would qualify

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Speaker 1: in terms of Super Bowl odds forty to one or

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Speaker 1: less the Buffalo Bills at seven to one. Stuck. This

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Speaker 1: Bills team they get to the playoffs, and I mean

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Speaker 1: they they get kind of a lucky win against Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: probably an unlucky loss against the Chiefs. What do you

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Speaker 1: make of the squad with the win total up with

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, the AFC is it's no mystery.

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Speaker 2: You're going to have your teams that you usually have

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Speaker 2: at the top, your Chiefs, Ravens, Bills. They're going to

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Speaker 2: be in the conversation, and ultimately it's the same question

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Speaker 2: for the Ravens that you have for the Bills. Can

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Speaker 2: they get over the chief sump? I mean, that's basically

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Speaker 2: what this comes down to. But the Bills, I really

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Speaker 2: like this team this year. I mean who wouldn't. And

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Speaker 2: I like what they did in the offseason. Some of

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Speaker 2: their defensive staff hires I really like, outside of Babbitch,

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Speaker 2: who was kind of like a McDermott light. But I

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Speaker 2: like what they did in the draft. It said, hey,

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Speaker 2: we're going to focus on defense, and they did that

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Speaker 2: in the free agency market as well. It's like, look,

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Speaker 2: we have Josh Allen. We know the offense, as long

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Speaker 2: as he stays healthy, is going to be great. Let's

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Speaker 2: focus on the defense. There's easy for me to say

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Speaker 2: there are some suspensions to developed the stutter in the

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Speaker 2: off season. I guess some suspensions with Hogan Jovi hooked

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Speaker 2: that should be noted. But yeah, I like what they

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Speaker 2: did in the offseason. The offense is going to be great.

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Speaker 2: It's everybody eats and you got the James Cook. I

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Speaker 2: think he's going to be there, but his status is

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Speaker 2: definitely worth monitoring. There are still some questions on the

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Speaker 2: back end of the defense. A better pass rush could

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Speaker 2: help in that department. I think they would really benefit

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Speaker 2: from bringing in like a veteran safety just kind of

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Speaker 2: the shore up the back end there. But yeah, this team,

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Speaker 2: what's not to like, especially when you consider the schedule.

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Speaker 2: The schedule broke right for them. I mean, look at

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Speaker 2: their their road games you want to go through. Does

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Speaker 2: anyone have an easier road schedule than the Bills, Jets, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Texans, Steelers, Patriots, Browns.

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Speaker 2: I mean for a first place team, it doesn't get

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Speaker 2: much easier than that. So yeah, I really like the Bills.

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Speaker 2: I think I project them at twelve point two five wins,

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Speaker 2: so I would lean over a little rich for the division.

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Speaker 2: But the Bills can really help their case for getting

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Speaker 2: over that hurdle against the Chiefs by getting the one seed,

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Speaker 2: and they have the schedule and the roster to do it.

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Speaker 2: I can't wait for that Week one opener though. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's not much to not like about the Bills. I

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Speaker 2: really like their draft as well, addressing some of their

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Speaker 2: issues on defense. So yeah, I what's not to like

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Speaker 2: about the Bills this year?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you just look back Sean McDermott, since

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Speaker 1: he took over as the head coach, they've gone over

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Speaker 1: their win total in seven of eight years by an

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Speaker 1: average of one point wins per year. Now, I don't

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Speaker 1: love betting over these high wind totals. Again, I think

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Speaker 1: if you know, it's way too early unless you're looking

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Speaker 1: at you know, those low win totals and trying to

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Speaker 1: go over you know, I don't really think there's a

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Speaker 1: point right now, but that just kind of solidifies what

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Speaker 1: you're saying that the Bills they're going to be around

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Speaker 1: when it's all said and done. So they're one of

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Speaker 1: the teams that I want a Super Bowl ticket on.

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Speaker 1: You know, they's seven to one pretty much across the market.

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Speaker 1: I really think in that AFC, it's hard to imagine

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Speaker 1: if it's not the Chiefs. It's not either the Bills

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Speaker 1: or the Ravens. And I think the Chiefs got really

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Speaker 1: lucky to get that you know, number one seed in

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Speaker 1: that by last year, and if it could have gone

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Speaker 1: a whole different way.

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Speaker 2: The problems if you win eleven or twelve one possession games.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, that the one seed is it's important in

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Speaker 2: the AFC for these evuations, and you.

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Speaker 1: Have Phills have a great chance at it. Because you're

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Speaker 1: talking about a coach who goes over is win total

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Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the time over an eight year span.

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Speaker 1: You're talking about, like you said, the hardest road game

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Speaker 1: probably what Houston or Pittsburgh, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: And then you do have some tough ones at home, Philly,

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Speaker 1: Baltimore case, but you know you could win. You can

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Speaker 1: lose all of those and still go, you know, thirteen

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Speaker 1: fourteen wins, one seeds. So yeah, I like the Bills

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Speaker 1: one upside with them.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Ravens Chiefs, by the way, I have as

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Speaker 2: top ten hardest schedules, so they have much tougher paths

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Speaker 2: than the Bills. For what just a quick macro question

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Speaker 2: for you. You have the three powerhouses in the AFC,

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Speaker 2: with the Bills who are minus seven hundred to make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, the Ravens minus four thirty, the Chiefs minus

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Speaker 2: three eighty five. It's also worth noting that the they

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Speaker 2: play and I think overall topper divisions than the Bills.

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Speaker 2: But if you had to take so you just got

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Speaker 2: a free pick, and if you get it right, you

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Speaker 2: get a million dollars. You have to take one team

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Speaker 2: to make the Super Bowl from the AFC. It's not

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Speaker 2: those three. Who are you taking? The hard question? Right? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I mean I'm probably taking the Bengals just because I

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Speaker 2: mean they're the best odds make the plus and then

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Speaker 2: you have Borrow like you're gonna need an earlade quarterback

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Speaker 2: to get through the AFC. But I mean, we'll talk

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Speaker 2: about the Bengals. Their defense is just I don't know

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Speaker 2: if they have the pedigree to get it done. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm curious your answer.

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Speaker 1: I think I would go with it would be it

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Speaker 1: would be a tie between the Chargers and the Broncos,

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Speaker 1: because you know, if the Chiefs, whoill make it every

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Speaker 1: damn year, aren't gonna make it. I do want some

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Speaker 1: like AFC West upside the Broncos that they don't like

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, not on that level, but I love their

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Speaker 1: roster overall, and I think a lot of things set

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Speaker 1: up well for them again this year. And then the

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Speaker 1: Chargers have the quarterback and the coach. So yeah, it

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Speaker 1: would be one of those two. Probably, I guess wean

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Speaker 1: charge it just for the quarterback, but probably like the

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Speaker 1: Broncos more all things considered, all right.

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Speaker 2: So you lean over on right, I said it's a

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Speaker 2: little high. I mean, like I show some value. Maybe

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Speaker 2: I'll play it small, but look, if like the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: go the Chiefs or Ravens go fourteen and three and

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Speaker 2: the Bills are sitting there eleven and six or eleven

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Speaker 2: and five, and then you know they sit everyone in

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Speaker 2: the final week against the Jets like they did. Like

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Speaker 2: that's that's some of the things that can happen with

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Speaker 2: a very eye wind total. But it's over or nothing

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Speaker 2: with the Bills, And yeah, I'm probably gonna be looking

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Speaker 2: for a time to if they you know, if they

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Speaker 2: have a skid or struggle out of the gates a bit.

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Speaker 2: Might be looking to get some Super Bowl equity at

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Speaker 2: some point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm the one i'd make now is the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl odds at seven to one. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: though they I don't see too much fluctuation with that.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's, like I said, I think there's three

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Speaker 1: teams and so seven. I don't mind the seven to one.

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Speaker 1: I mean i'd wed the division at minus two sixty,

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Speaker 1: but you're not. You know, that's no fun in futures odds.

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Speaker 1: But I think there's a big gap between them and

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Speaker 1: New England I think is probably the second best team.

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Speaker 1: Uh and uh And yeah, I'd lean over on the

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half as well, but I just think

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Speaker 1: that's also it's too early for me to make that.

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Speaker 1: But the Super Bowl is one I'll be making.

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Speaker 2: I show value. I shall value in that division number.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's like that says like this, Josh.

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Speaker 2: Allen stay healthy, then they should win it. But where

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Speaker 2: do you want to go next in the seas Let's.

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Speaker 1: Go with the Patriots because I really like what they

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Speaker 1: did in the off season. But but there's still I

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Speaker 1: think a wide range of outcomes, right because on one hand,

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Speaker 1: you got Vrabel coming over. He's been very good in

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Speaker 1: terms of wind totals four and two to the over.

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Speaker 1: You got McDaniel's coming back. But I mean that old line.

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Speaker 1: You know, they they did improve it on paper, it

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Speaker 1: could still be bad, you know, especially if Campbell doesn't

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Speaker 1: hit the ground running, and then what are we getting

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Speaker 1: from Diggs? What are we getting from you know, the

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Speaker 1: rookie wide receiver. You know, there's there's just a lot

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Speaker 1: of different ways this could go. For me, I do

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Speaker 1: think the defense will play well under Vrabel, but a

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Speaker 1: lot of moving pieces here. But I do when I

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Speaker 1: look at Miami and especially all the rumors and just

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Speaker 1: what's been coming out of there, the trades and whatnot,

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Speaker 1: I see I see a new England team that to

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Speaker 1: me just has an edge over Miami for that number

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Speaker 1: two spot in the division. What do you think with

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Speaker 1: this Patriots team win total seven and a half to

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Speaker 1: eight and a half depending on the book.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like what they did in the

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Speaker 2: off season and then definitely trending up. I like just

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Speaker 2: a culture perspective, coaching perspective. You know that the new

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Speaker 2: staff should be a massive upgrade. Do you get a jump,

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Speaker 2: you know, a year or two jump with Drake May

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Speaker 2: who I think showed some really good things, especially considering

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Speaker 2: what he had around him. The offensive line should be

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Speaker 2: better this year. I couldn't be. It can't be any

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Speaker 2: worse than last year. I mean, the talent was so dreadful,

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Speaker 2: and then you add injuries. You know, now you bring

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Speaker 2: in guys like you know, Bradbury and Moses, and you

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Speaker 2: know some of the guys you were asking to start

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Speaker 2: are going to be your second and third stringers. So

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Speaker 2: I liked I liked their off season a lot. It's

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Speaker 2: just a big jump though, to get to get to

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Speaker 2: I know, the schedules really easy. The schedule broke right

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Speaker 2: for them. I think I have them with the third

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Speaker 2: easiest schedule in the NFL. O line should be improved

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Speaker 2: I like Drake May, I like the new staff, but

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Speaker 2: I can't get to this summer. I mean I project

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Speaker 2: around seven and a half, seven point six. Does Barmore

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Speaker 2: stay healthy all year? I think that's important for the

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Speaker 2: defensive line. And then what are you getting from from Giggs?

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Speaker 2: Has he washed it? What can he still give you?

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Speaker 2: We know what he's going to bring to the party,

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Speaker 2: but what can he bring to the field still? So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty close to market. I mean at eight and

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Speaker 2: a half, I would actually lean under on the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: but nothing I love. I like what they did. I

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Speaker 2: like what they did in the draft. I like what

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Speaker 2: they did in the all season. I like what they

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Speaker 2: did with the staff. So all things are pointing up

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Speaker 2: for the Patriots too. I mean last year they went

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Speaker 2: four to thirteen. One of those wins were against the Bills,

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Speaker 2: arrested everyone. It's really he won three games. This is

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Speaker 2: a big jump. So I get the hype, but I'm

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Speaker 2: just not their number. How about you?

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Speaker 1: Numbers wise, I'm there, so I actually have them favored

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Speaker 1: in eleven games, and I have their wins more right,

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Speaker 1: even five hundred teams eight and a half. So it's

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Speaker 1: just tough because you know that's seven and a half

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Speaker 1: is pretty juice s up. I don't mind it. I'm

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Speaker 1: over that sad weed that way. I think it's again

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Speaker 1: a little bit too early to just be betting some

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Speaker 1: juice up win totals. But I think Rabelin is gonna

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Speaker 1: have a defense playing well almost regardless of the person now.

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna do more less. And Drake May

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Speaker 1: I thought was really impressive last year. I think he's

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Speaker 1: a guy that would probably not him. And I think

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Speaker 1: there's a few quarterbacks that are kind of fine under

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Speaker 1: the radar this year that probably shouldn't. I think Drake

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Speaker 1: May is won. Penix might be one. Jordan Love I

294
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Speaker 1: think is one. But I mean, yeah, Drake may had nothing,

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Speaker 1: nothing last year, So whatever they get from Diggs is

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Speaker 1: going to be an upgrade. I don't you know, who

297
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Speaker 1: knows about Kyle Williams, the rookie receiver. I mean McDaniel's

298
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Speaker 1: system could be you know, could take some time, so

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Speaker 1: who knows. But I think the town is definitely better.

300
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Speaker 1: There's gonna be faster guys, there's gonna be guys that

301
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Speaker 1: can get open better. Uh, and the defense should be better.

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Speaker 1: And then you know, I talked about I haven't favored

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Speaker 1: in eleven games.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm I'm at seven point six seven is

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Speaker 2: my projection. But yeah, there's there's a lot of them.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of like you said, there's a wide

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Speaker 2: range of outcomes. The good news is, you know, you

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Speaker 2: have new head coach, new offense coordinator, new defensive coordinator,

309
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Speaker 2: and then you have I don't know what ten new

310
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Speaker 2: starters potentially, So the good thing there with a lot

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Speaker 2: of change, Vegas at home at Miami, home against pitt

312
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Speaker 2: home against Carolina, a nice little runway to start the

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Speaker 2: season while you're kind of working out the kinks. Late

314
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Speaker 2: by might heard of it with so much change, but

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Speaker 2: that early part of the schedule in the schedule overall

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Speaker 2: definitely works in their favor.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And like Vrabel is a dog, right, Like if

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Speaker 1: they're favored in you know, ten or eleven games, and

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Speaker 1: then Rabel steals a couple that they're a dog, and

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Speaker 1: I mean they should. They should be in pretty good

321
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Speaker 1: shape because at the fast is you know, outside of Buffalo,

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Speaker 1: it's not as strong. So you know, I'm definitely lean

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Speaker 1: over the seven and a half and I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: eyeing that to them to make the playoffs, but I'd

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Speaker 1: like it to get to two hundred or better. It's

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Speaker 1: a round plus one seventy. But you know, if some

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Speaker 1: other teams falter, I wouldn't be surprised. If you know,

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Speaker 1: New England just rides, you know, a year two jump

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Speaker 1: from May and h and a great Rabel defense to

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Speaker 1: nine to ten wins, and you know, some somebody gets

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Speaker 1: hurt and you know, in a different division and doesn't

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Speaker 1: make it. So I'm kind of eyeing that. But right now,

333
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Speaker 1: over for me, any anything for you here?

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Speaker 2: No, I think they finished eight nine. It's it's a pass.

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Speaker 1: For me, Miami seven and a half of the win

336
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Speaker 1: total juice to the over round minus one fifty five,

337
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Speaker 1: sixty to one for the super Bowl, six to one

338
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Speaker 1: to win the division. I mean, this was a team

339
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Speaker 1: at one point that you know it's considered, you know,

340
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Speaker 1: right there with Buffalo, not right there, but you know,

341
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Speaker 1: at least able to challenge. They've really fallen off. We're hearing,

342
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Speaker 1: you know, their top two receivers Jhona Smith Harry Kill

343
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Speaker 1: and John of Smith both been in trade rumors. The

344
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 1: defense just can't seem to stay healthy. The line, I

345
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Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna be great with armstead of retiring.

346
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Speaker 1: But what are your thoughts on this Dolphins squad?

347
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Speaker 2: So I'm selling this team. I just I don't think

348
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Speaker 2: that they're building this team right. I don't think two

349
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Speaker 2: is the guy I don't really like. I didn't like

350
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 2: their draft. I didn't really like what they brought in.

351
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 2: New guards and new safeties. I don't like almost any

352
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 2: of them. I mean, maybe you get a healthier chub

353
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Speaker 2: in Phillips and that helps with your edge rush, but yeah,

354
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 2: the old line is still very dicey questions in the secondary.

355
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 2: I assume Ramsey's probably going to be moved. Who else

356
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 2: I think the secondary is going to be bad. I

357
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 2: don't like this team at all. And then you look

358
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Speaker 2: at the schedule, like after the week twelve by you

359
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 2: know some of your road games that you look at

360
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,120
Speaker 2: the schedule and you'd say, oh, I think that these

361
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: because the Dolphins have a pretty easy schedule. I have

362
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 2: them twenty fifth and schedule difficulty. But at the Jets,

363
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:44,880
Speaker 2: at the Steelers, at the Patriots cold weather games after

364
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: week twelve, so that's not ideal. So the schedule is

365
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 2: pretty easy. But I'm selling this team like a juiced

366
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: under eight and a half. I don't think that. I

367
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 2: think this could all fall apart and get ugly. There's

368
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 2: just too many holes here on both sides of the ball.

369
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: And I mean, who knows what two is? Do you

370
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 2: want to talk about injury risk? You have to talk

371
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 2: about the Dolphins. Two is has to be at the

372
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,439
Speaker 2: top of the list just because of his concussion history.

373
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Speaker 2: And then what all of a sudden, you're you're out

374
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Speaker 2: there with Zach Wilson. So under for me on the Dolphins,

375
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: I project them closer to like seven six seven seven.

376
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Speaker 1: Yep, I'm at seven to five for the Dolphins. I

377
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 1: totally agree you can get a under eight and a

378
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:35,479
Speaker 1: half juice to minus one fifty's. That's one of the

379
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 1: better win total values I show. I'll still call it

380
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 1: a ween just because, like I said, a little bit early,

381
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 1: but under eight and a half at minus one fifty,

382
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: I think it is a pretty solid play for the

383
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: Dolphins because, like you said, you got that to a

384
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: injury risk you got, and you just got the traight

385
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 1: upside if you're betting the under, that is for the Dolphins,

386
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: because I don't think they'd be able to get anything

387
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: in terms of value that's gonna help him this year

388
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: back necessarily.

389
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: So there's just still like this luster around the Dolphins

390
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 2: from some people like I mean, what's what's Tyreek chills?

391
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: Me?

392
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: What is he? Thirty two? Thirty one? Like he's he's

393
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: not the same player he was. And yeah, this roster, uh,

394
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: in my opinion has just way too many holes under

395
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: for me on the Dolphins.

396
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean if they're now if you're talking

397
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: about moving John who you can't even count on like

398
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 1: John who repeating necessarily at his age. Yeah, Tyreek is

399
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 1: thirty one, you know John who's like great, but that

400
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: was like his first monster season. He's gonna be thirty.

401
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 1: Wattle regressed last year, I would say probably last two

402
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 1: years has been regressing. Uh, yeah, it's been it's been

403
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 1: odd for this team and McGann's has that reputation and

404
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: but you know, the defense is up and down. It's

405
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 1: all it kind of all depends on injuries. And yeah,

406
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: I have this team. This is a seven ISSU win team, so.

407
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 2: That I would six and eleven wouldn't be surprised.

408
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a favorite in six games, So yeah,

409
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:08,959
Speaker 1: that actually would be probably the median outcome that wouldn't

410
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 1: be surprising at all. Jets five and a half juice

411
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: to the over for the win total. Uh. Aaron Glenn

412
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: new head coach, replacing Sala and Olbrick Tanner Engstrand offensive

413
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: coordinator replaces then Daniel Hackett. There's some upside there because

414
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: you know extraan has been in Detroit, and then you

415
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: got Stevie Wilkes, veteran defensive coordinator. UH. So you know,

416
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: depending on your opinion of Aaron Glenn, I guess this

417
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: team could be competent coaching wise, first time head coaches

418
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: fifty six fifty five percent to the over on their

419
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: win total. Since two Justin Fields is the quarterback, what

420
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 1: do you think of the Jets.

421
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: I'm not an Aaron Glenn guy. I'm not a Wilkes guy,

422
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: so I don't really love this staff. This is I mean,

423
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: Justin Fields, he's just He's probably gonna put up good

424
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: fantasy numbers right because of his legs if you're a

425
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: fantasy guy. The schedule is the hardest in the division,

426
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 2: although it's still pretty easy. I have a twenty third

427
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: in difficulty at Buffalo last game of the year. That

428
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: could be helpful. As I mentioned earlier Buffalo as things

429
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 2: wrapped up, and they do post the Dolphins late in

430
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 2: the year, which could also help. So there are some

431
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 2: things in the schedule to like. But I mean, I

432
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: projected this is not a great team. There's there's holes

433
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball. I didn't love the draft.

434
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 2: It was decent, but this is just a sub bar

435
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 2: team and I project I mean, I project them at

436
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: six on the dot. So nothing here for me. Probably

437
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,719
Speaker 2: gonna be another long year for Jets fans. What are

438
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 2: your thoughts on them?

439
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the old one could be decent, but

440
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: I think fields there's a there's a ceiling there. There's

441
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 1: there's a ceiling there with Fields. The funny thing is

442
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 1: if you compare fields numbers now, granted it's pretty abbreviated

443
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: season last year, but even if you go back and

444
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: compare like their last three to Aaron Rodgers' last three,

445
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: so that you know, it's two healthy seasons and essentially,

446
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: like some of the metrics, there's really not like Rodgers

447
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: has barely has an edge, So you know, this is

448
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: this is kind of the same team that it could be,

449
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: kind of the same team it was last year, just

450
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of new pieces. But that's not

451
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 1: good because that was a five win team last year.

452
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: However, they did go three seven one possession games like

453
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 2: they were, they were close.

454
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: So you usually see these teams go over their win

455
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: total lot about a fifty five to fifty seven percent clip.

456
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: When you look at teams you know that are at

457
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: least a win under forming. Uh, And I do have

458
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: him at six, so I got five and a half.

459
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say I leaned over because I think it's.

460
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 2: Probably close to six if I had that out with

461
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 2: that over, but I'm pretty close to the market. It's

462
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: nothing there.

463
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this, I mean, this could still be a disaster.

464
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: I mean there's if the old line doesn't, you know,

465
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: move up to expectations, then you're talking about he could

466
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 1: still could be talking about one of the worst offenses

467
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: in the week. And I don't know what the Briest

468
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: Hall situation is. I mean, I feel like the minute

469
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: the new coach came in, he was like, yeah, we're

470
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: gonna like use more of a committee, and then it

471
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 1: was like he was on the trade blox. So who

472
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: knows what's going on with him. It's just not ideal

473
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: for you. You know your second best offensive player.

474
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: Ron Taylor. Probably a Field will like get hurt for

475
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: a couple of games. Ty Taylor will win, win like

476
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 2: a game or two. That's and don't finish like I

477
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: think they finish. H I don't know. I think they'll

478
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 2: win six or six or seven games, but I'm pretty

479
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: close to market.

480
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they could probably beat Miami twice or

481
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: something like that. Actually Miami usually whoops them, right, Yeah,

482
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: I don't know. Whatever their Jets did. They They're not

483
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: any team I want to really invest in either way,

484
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: at least at this at this point. Underdogs is one

485
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486
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,840
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491
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492
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498
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499
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506
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509
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510
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511
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512
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Speaker 2: Last night I had a five man and I had

513
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: the only reason I didn't catch it was because I

514
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 2: had Hardenstein lower seven and a half rebounds. And I'm

515
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 2: watching sweating. Everything else looks good, and with like eight

516
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: minutes ago, he tipped the ball out and then I

517
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: saw it tick up and I lost. So thanks for

518
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:17,479
Speaker 2: reminding me of that.

519
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: Hey, you're talking to a guy who has a five

520
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 1: to one Hartenstein to wead the series and rebounding. So

521
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: you know, I'll just I'll just click, I'll just split

522
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: some with you. But it is fun everyone out there.

523
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: Make sure you dowlo that underdog. Aap AFC North got

524
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 1: Baltimore as the favorite with eleven and a half wins

525
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: seven to one to win the Super Bowl and a

526
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 1: minus one fifty Division fave Cincinnati the second place team

527
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 1: at nine and a half wins eighteen to one for

528
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. Pittsburgh eight and a half wins, and

529
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: we know Tom win always getting that winning record. So

530
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: eight and a half for Pittsburgh forty to one to

531
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: win the super Bowl right at that threshold, and the

532
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: plus fot fifty to win the Division. The Bengals are

533
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: plus two thirty and then the Browns are the last

534
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: five and a half. Is the wind total juice to

535
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: the under and I won't even mention their Super Bowl

536
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: or Division odds, which should be irrelevant. But Baltimore, this

537
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: is the team that you always have the best read

538
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: on the team that you're a fan on and also

539
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: a very good prognosticator. Row And so talk to me

540
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: about the Ravens with this wind total of eleven and

541
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: a half and the super Bowl odds of seven to one.

542
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're basically I mean I project eleven six,

543
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 2: so win total eleven and a half, I'm pretty close

544
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: to market. They're basically running it back with the super

545
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: Bowl caliber team, arguably the most talented roster in the league,

546
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: with a great draft. I love their draft that it's

547
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: a common team with the Ravens and one of the

548
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: best drafting organizations in the NFL. But I love the

549
00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: I mean Starks getting green where they got green. I

550
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: just love their draft. It will be you know, there's

551
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: some questions on the offensive line left guard specifically that

552
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: I have the biggest question I have. Can Starks step

553
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: in and be productive right away? I really love that

554
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,239
Speaker 2: draft pick. But he's someone that I'll be watching. I mean,

555
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: are you gonna have to rely on a woozy A

556
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 2: I'm not sure so like, but just having the Kyle

557
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 2: Hamilton chess piece, they really fixed their defense in the

558
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: second half of last year after some schematic and communication changes.

559
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: So I'm bullish on their defense. Little worries about their

560
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 2: pressure rate, like they were twenty first in pressu rate.

561
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: Can you keep relying on Kyle van noy, I mean,

562
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: he's thirty four. Now you have ridiculous season. But but

563
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: you're gonna get Mitchell back. What can he give you?

564
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 2: Flowers his loss, They've really missed him in the playoffs

565
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: when he was hurt. But they're basically running it back

566
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 2: after a great draft, and they want not Tucker, which

567
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 2: is gonna be weird. It's Tyler Lup Show. We'll see

568
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 2: how that was. But it's not like Tucker was overly

569
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 2: productive last year. But it's just gonna be weird to

570
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 2: see the Ravens without Tucker. The one thing that I

571
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: am worried about I mentioned like, yeah, Mitchell wasn't healthy

572
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 2: and they lost Flowers, But the Ravens were one of

573
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: the luckiest teams in recent history in terms of health

574
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 2: last year in terms of average games lost. You got

575
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: to go all the way back to twenty seventeen for

576
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 2: when the Falcons had a It was the last time

577
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 2: a team had fewer average games lost than the Ravens

578
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: last year, so they were extremely lucky on that front.

579
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: So fingers crossed if you're a Ravens fan. We've seen

580
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 2: some seasons where it just all goes to hell in

581
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 2: a hand basket. So but I'm right on market. They're

582
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 2: gonna be in the mix. Can they get over the

583
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 2: Chiefs hump? It's all on the mar just like it's

584
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: all on Josh Allen. But this is one of I

585
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 2: think I have them going into the year power rated

586
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: number one in the NFL. Not huge separation from a

587
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: couple of other teams up there, but it's one of

588
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: the best teams in the NFL. But uh schedule isn't

589
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: easy by any stretch. I have them with the seventh

590
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 2: most difficult schedule. You know, first four weeks you're at Buffalo,

591
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: at Kansas City, Detroit at home, and you're Houston the Rams.

592
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 2: Before year by, you know, you got three straight road

593
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: games after the bye week at Miami, at Minnesota, at Cleveland.

594
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: He schedule, he's he's up a bit, but it's definitely

595
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: not an easy schedule. So I project right around eleven

596
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 2: and a half. Nothing for me on the Ravens can

597
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 2: they get over the Chiefs. It's all comes down to.

598
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want upside with the team. So I'm I mean,

599
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: you know, they're Super Bowl odds as well at at

600
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 1: seven to one. I think I want to have more

601
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 1: of the Bills because I think there's more still more

602
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: downside with the Ravens, as you mentioned the injuries and whatnot.

603
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: But I do have a favorite. Bills have the easier

604
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: path to the one he too is he talked about

605
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: and Yah's that's really what it is. Yeah. So and

606
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: then when you look at like win totals eleven and

607
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: a half or higher, just three and sevens, it's twenty

608
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: twenty one double digit win totals forty five percent to

609
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: the over since two thousand and two when they switched

610
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 1: to thirty two teams. So it's you know, you're not

611
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: gonna get a ton of value consistently betting overs on

612
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,919
Speaker 1: these high wind totals. Harbaugh has been uh ten six

613
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 1: with one push sixty two and a half percent in

614
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 1: his career. So, you know, the Ravens, I think they'll

615
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: they'll win double digit games most like when they and

616
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 1: I just think they're one of those three teams. It's

617
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 1: gonna come down in injuries. Uh, their path probably isn't

618
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 1: as easy as the Bills, but they still have like

619
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: you said you could, Yeah, I think I have them.

620
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: Yeah tie, No, they haven't power to number two behind

621
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: uh Buffalo. So yeah, it's you know, this is one of.

622
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,479
Speaker 2: The one buffalo too. I like point zero point two

623
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 2: points that separating them, so basically one and two.

624
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I mean I like a lot of what

625
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 1: this team did you look at cause even you know, yeah,

626
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 1: there's gonna be question marks at corner as you know,

627
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 1: as usual at that other one of those corner spots.

628
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 1: But the other two spots. I mean, Wiggins was a

629
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: top twenty five corner in grade. Last year home for

630
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: he was top seven. So you got two top twenty

631
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 1: five coming off top twenty five seasons. And then Stevens

632
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: he graded out one hundredth of one sixteen on over

633
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 1: a thousand snaps. So a woozi a I mean Wuzia

634
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: Tampa cont like whoever they end up some veteran, whoever

635
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: they end up putting in there could have could be

636
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 1: better than Stevens.

637
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and everything worked better once you know you have

638
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: Humphrey manning the slot predominantly Hamilton on the back end more.

639
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: But you have that chess piece we'll talk about the

640
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 2: Eagles in the gene two just enables you to move,

641
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: like if there's an injury or someone struggling. With Hamilton,

642
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 2: it's like having two players in one. But with Washington's injury,

643
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 2: I am going to watch Starks because I think he

644
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: can be a key piece this year. We'll see what

645
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 2: that and I like him. We'll see what they give

646
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: he can give them as a rookie. But yeah, it's

647
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: one of the best teams the NFL. Not much else

648
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: to say.

649
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: Marcus Williams another terrible player that's over five hundred snaps

650
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 1: that won't won't be suiting up for them this year.

651
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, So, I mean their Super Bowl odds. I

652
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: would still figuring out the amount of units I want

653
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: to split between Buffalo, Casey and Baltimore in the AFC.

654
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 1: But that's pretty much how I'm going to play the

655
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Maybe one long shot, but I don't, you know,

656
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: I really have a tough time seeing want like all

657
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 1: three of those teams failing to get there. Cincinnati, that's

658
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 1: been the team that's been able to beat Kansas City

659
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: in the past win total nine and a half.

660
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 2: What's up and the Bills in the playoffs?

661
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: Yep, yeah, I mean outside of those that Big three,

662
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: I'm Cincinnati's that other team. They're nine and a half

663
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: juice to the over eighteen to one Super Bowl plus

664
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: two thirty to win the North. And I mean his

665
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: team stuck wide range outcomes, right, because their defense could

666
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: be really bad. Their defense could be and it was

667
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 1: bad last year, but you're talking about potentially know Hendrickson,

668
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 1: who was you know, seventeen and a half sacks, eighty

669
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 1: three pressures. Your draft picks, Stewart on the edge, I

670
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 1: mean no college production, so risky, No Osi Murphy, those

671
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: guys haven't really panned out yet. They both ranked eighty

672
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 1: fifth or worse at PFF. Now you did add Orrin Burks,

673
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 1: a linebacker on the second level, you know, got the

674
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: new Any thoughts on Al Golden because I mean, I

675
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 1: feel like a lot seems to be riding on this guy.

676
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: You know, they've replaced anar Rumo, a long time coordinator.

677
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 1: We know what we're gonna get from the offense. It's

678
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: just about health with the offense, right, I mean, the

679
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 1: line was bad last year. It could be bad. Burrow

680
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 1: can still make up for it. But what do you

681
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: think of this defense? Al Golden replacing Anna Rumo, the

682
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,720
Speaker 1: Hendrickson question marks, and just I mean, not a ton

683
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 1: to be excited about outside of I guess if Stuart

684
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:17,399
Speaker 1: ends up panning out.

685
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the Bengals are such bad drafters. It's incredible, Like, yeah,

686
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 2: they got Burrow and they drafts good receivers just overall,

687
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 2: especially like in the trenches. If he looked their history,

688
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 2: it's so bad. I hated their draft again this year.

689
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 2: They're kind of just hamstrung because of who they had

690
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 2: to pay. And I I'll go en one of, if

691
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 2: not the best defensive coordinator in college football prior this year,

692
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: now that he's in the NFL. But lou Ana Rumo

693
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 2: was highly regarded as well. Might have been a tad overrated,

694
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 2: and some of his assistants at the time when he

695
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: was really good might have had a little bit more

696
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 2: to do with it than others might have thought. But

697
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: he's still I'm still a good defensive coordinator. There's only

698
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: so much you can do when you just don't have talent.

699
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 2: So this defense, yeah, it's gonna be bad. It's there.

700
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 2: There could be a schematic pump, like, hey, let me

701
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 2: come in, get a new fresh set of eyes on

702
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 2: this group and do some different things. But it's amazing

703
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 2: how bad they were When you're Hendrickson having like a

704
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: defensive Player of the Year caliber season, That's what worries men.

705
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 2: They're gonna be in shootouts. That's what the Bengals do.

706
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I project them with their wind total is

707
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 2: nine five juice totally day over. I project them nine

708
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 2: to six that they're gonna have a lot of the

709
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 2: They're gonna have a lot of coin flips just because

710
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 2: they're not gonna able to get stops. Barrow's gonna be

711
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 2: able to score anyone. I do think their offensive line

712
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 2: has potential to be a little better because you can

713
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 2: potentially replace Ford and Volson who were so bad, with

714
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: some combination of Patrick Fairchild Rivers. You know, that's counting

715
00:39:58,440 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 2: on the Bengals being able to be able to draft

716
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 2: an offensive lineman. But you can't get much worse than

717
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: Ford and Bowlson. But yeah, I mean, the hope is

718
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 2: that Al Golden, just a fresh set of eyes and

719
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,240
Speaker 2: new scheme, can give them a bump because the defense

720
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 2: is definitely not going to be good. You know, I

721
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 2: receivers are becoming like quarterbacks in that. This is why

722
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,240
Speaker 2: I kind of like the Bills and like everybody eats,

723
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 2: Like everybody eats, no one gets paid, right, Like you

724
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 2: don't have to without Diggs and you have Alan can

725
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: just let him cook, Like wouldn't Burrow be fine? I

726
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 2: know the numbers are better with Higgins on the field obviously,

727
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: but if you just went and got somebody else, like

728
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 2: a veteran receiver, and then use that money to address

729
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 2: some of the other like it's Burrow, like he's their

730
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 2: offense is going to be good with Joe Burrow, but

731
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: the ceiling just might not be there because of some

732
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: of the other holes on the roster that they're not

733
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,359
Speaker 2: able to address because of who they had to pay.

734
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think I would have. I definitely

735
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 2: would have won a different route in building this roster.

736
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 2: But like would you would if you were running the

737
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 2: Bengal would you have paid T Higgins or like put

738
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: money elsewhere?

739
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 1: Personally, if I was running the Bengals, I I would

740
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 1: kind of look at like you said, the track record

741
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,959
Speaker 1: drafting defensive players especially I know you got a couple

742
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: of hits, but yeah, I would I would have kept Chase.

743
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's a talent that's hard to replace

744
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: and just allow him to, you know, open up things

745
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: for everyone else. Getta keep drafting receivers and pay for

746
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: defense since you suck at drafting defense, you know what

747
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 1: I mean. Like, I mean, at some point, you just

748
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 1: got to look at your strengths and weaknesses. And yeah,

749
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 1: for the Bengals, I think that's that's the way I

750
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:52,959
Speaker 1: would have I would have approached it. But yeah, it's

751
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: I mean, even the pick they made, like Stuart, Like,

752
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on? Stuart?

753
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 2: Not a fan? So yeah, I I didn't like their

754
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 2: offseason at all, but they're they're kind of limited, and

755
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: I never liked their draft. So I'll tell you one thing,

756
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 2: Bengals fans, you better win Week one. Bengals always lose

757
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 2: Week one.

758
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, I already have money on the Browns.

759
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 1: Yeah no, but I'm saying if they don't, if they

760
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 1: lose that game, I don't care who the quarterback is,

761
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 1: and then.

762
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:21,959
Speaker 2: You know, you're you probably beat the Jags at home.

763
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 2: But that you got to get that Cleveland whin like

764
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 2: you're talking like win total and playoff hopes, because after

765
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 2: those first two weeks, here's a four week stretch at

766
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 2: Mini at Denver home against Detroit at Green Bay. And

767
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 2: that's before you play another four game stretch late in

768
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 2: the season at Baltimore, at Buffalo home against Baltimore, and

769
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: then at Miami. We don't think Miami is any good.

770
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 2: But after Baltimore, Buffalo, Baltimore and then you're going down

771
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: to Miami late in the year, Like, that's just a

772
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 2: weird spot too. So there's some tricky spots in the schedule,

773
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: and I would agree, I would think Cleveland Week one

774
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 2: too well. I guess we'll talk Browns now. But the

775
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 2: wrap up the Bengals, I'm it's no surprise, like how

776
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 2: much of a schematic pumpkin golden give and the offensive

777
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 2: line get better in the interier with some of the

778
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 2: addition's draft picks. Maybe we know the offense would be good.

779
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 2: Defense gonna be bad. I mean shootouts, Like I think

780
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 2: the Bengals seasons probablynna come down to like what their

781
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 2: close game record is. Like, There's probably gonna be a

782
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 2: lot of close games, a lot of high scoring games.

783
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: But I project, right on one.

784
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm about nine nine wins flats, I'm a

785
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 1: little under I think that road schedule doesn't do them

786
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: any favors, like you said, and then even like at

787
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: home game against Jacksonville. I mean you look at like

788
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 1: if their offense takes a jump similar to what Tampa

789
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: Bay did under William Cohen, I mean Cincinnati can lose

790
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: to any Yeah, yeah, I mean yeah, because their defense

791
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 1: could be that bad. And yeah, I mean Zach Taylor

792
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: only has hit the over in two of his six

793
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 1: seasons coaching the two team. Uh yeah, I think there's

794
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: probably more like there's there's super Bowl upside here, but

795
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 1: there's so much downside, and so it's kind of it's

796
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 1: it's tough. It's like do you do you take a

797
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 1: shot of them super Bowl or don't you are you

798
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 1: are you gonna do that with them with them in

799
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 1: like eighteen to one, or you're just gonna pass on that.

800
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 2: No, I'm passing now. But I mentioned that that four

801
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: week stretch, and you know, if they lose at the

802
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 2: Browns week one, if I see some like schematic improvements

803
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,879
Speaker 2: and you know, they get a bit longer, I might

804
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 2: take a flyer on them at some point during the season.

805
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 2: Nothing preseason.

806
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers eight and a half juiced to the under,

807
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 1: so you can actually get some plus money for them

808
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 1: to win nine games, which they have won and uh

809
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,280
Speaker 1: they have gone. They've had a winning season in every

810
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 1: Mike tom woulds he's thirteen and five to the over

811
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:06,359
Speaker 1: on the win total seventy two percent, going over by

812
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 1: uh just under one win per season in his eighteen seasons.

813
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 1: The schedule doesn't scare me. It's not it's not super easy,

814
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: it's not super hard in my opinions about middle of

815
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 1: the pack. But Rogers, I mean five point seven six

816
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,879
Speaker 1: net yards per attempt last year. That was lower than

817
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: Wilson who had six point one to three, a little

818
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 1: bit higher than Fields at five point five fives, and

819
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: a little lower than the team overall at five point

820
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: nine to six. So Rogers could conceivably, as crazy as

821
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: it sounds, be a downgrade like an on paper and

822
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 1: actual downgrade when it's all said and done. What are

823
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 1: your thoughts on the on the Steelers team. You know

824
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: Metcalf in there at wide receiver for Pickens as well.

825
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think the swap of Metcalf for

826
00:45:56,800 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 2: Pickens is a net positive, especially just for the locker room.

827
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 2: I can consistency. Did their draft was decent. The offensive

828
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: line has some potential. Like I think it comes down

829
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 2: to two things with the Steelers. One, what are you

830
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 2: getting from Rogers? Like he showed some some better signs

831
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 2: as the year progressed, especially late in the year, so

832
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: like another year removed from his injuries, he better. Basically,

833
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 2: can he be Farv? In two thousand and nine? Right?

834
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 2: Farv went to the Jets. If that failed, then he

835
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 2: went to Minnesota. They were like close to getting to

836
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 2: the super Bowl. He had a horrible pick, but he

837
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 2: went to the He went to the Vikings after the

838
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 2: Jets and uh Vikings went to the playoffs and almost

839
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 2: made a run. What Rogers are you getting? I think

840
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: he'll indirectly help the offensive line as well, like Audibling

841
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 2: having control the line of scrimmage, which they basically took

842
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 2: away from the quarterbacks last year, and then he just

843
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 2: gets rid of the ball so quick. But the offensive

844
00:46:56,640 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: line also has just some potential, like can during COM's

845
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 2: first years, they drafted a bunch of the offensive line.

846
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: Does that finally pay off? You got Fatano back, you

847
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 2: got Jones moving back to left tackle. I really liked

848
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 2: what I saw from some of the young guys, especially

849
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 2: Fraser at center. So you know the offensive line has

850
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 2: some potential. But this basically comes down to, like what

851
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 2: you think Rogers will be, here's a world where he

852
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 2: gets even worse. There's a world where like because not

853
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 2: only is his age, it's his injury that complicates matters

854
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 2: as well. I do think it's an upgrade from Nason

855
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: Rudolph for sure, but the depth, there's some depth, Like

856
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,479
Speaker 2: the offensive line depth is really scary. Like if they're

857
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 2: they're starting five of what Jones, some low Fraser, McCormick,

858
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 2: Altano doesn't work out, or someone gets hurt, it gets

859
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: pretty scary quick. But this is like the middle of

860
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 2: the road team. And I mean luckily I project them

861
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: at eight point two wins. I do have them with

862
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 2: this thick start the schedule in the NFL, but it's

863
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 2: Tomlin voodoo magic, like they're probably gonna steal a win

864
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 2: or two where you don't think that they're gonna win

865
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 2: the probably maybe drop a game or two. I don't know,

866
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 2: they'll actually the way that this works is they'll start

867
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 2: out and they start out Jets, Seattle, New England, Minnesota, Cleveland.

868
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 2: So they'll start out like eight and oh somehow and

869
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 2: then finished nine and eight.

870
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Roethlisberger goes to Roethlisberger year. Weren't they eleven and

871
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:30,359
Speaker 1: zero to start?

872
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: Yeah year?

873
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, last year it happened again.

874
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 2: And their schedule does get rough the last sex six

875
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 2: it's Buffalo at Baltimore, Miami at Detroit, at Cleveland, Baltimore

876
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 2: at Chicago, Cincinnati before then at the Chargers. So they're

877
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 2: back after their schedule is uh, pretty brutal. But yeah,

878
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 2: I have no interest in fading Tomlin and I'm lucky

879
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 2: I'm close market here the so yeah, nothing for me

880
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 2: just comes out of the way you think of Rogers,

881
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 2: And to be quite frank, I don't think anyone really knows.

882
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, i'd actually mean over here. Uh, And the reason

883
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: is Rogers I don't really have much trust in. I

884
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 1: don't think he can be much worse than what they

885
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 1: had last year or what they had in that year

886
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 1: they started eleven and oh with the corpse of Roethlisberger, though,

887
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:29,359
Speaker 1: I think he like, that's kind of what you're gonna

888
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 1: get out of Rogers. But Mason Rudolph's back after was

889
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,320
Speaker 1: it a one year Yeah, one year hiatus. They're actually

890
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 1: eight and four with one tie in his starts. So

891
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 1: and then you got you also drafted a quarterback, so

892
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,359
Speaker 1: you actually might have a better quarterback room at week,

893
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: like a little more upset than you had last year

894
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,239
Speaker 1: in just like getting Kenny Pickett the heck out of there,

895
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,880
Speaker 1: getting Mitch Trubisky, Mitch Bortles the hell out of there. Uh,

896
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin wins has a win season every year and

897
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 1: he's thirteen and five to the over, so yeah, I

898
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 1: don't see. You know, they go to Detroit and uh

899
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 1: that's that's their and into Baltimore. Those those are two

900
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 1: tough road games. But and then Buffalo Green Bay and

901
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 1: of course the Ravens at home. But I mean the

902
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 1: Steers can win every game. And their defense, I mean

903
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 1: high Smith why uh the harming, I mean it's just

904
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 1: hey where there's just so many pieces. I think Minka

905
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,839
Speaker 1: can move back to the slot at times. You know,

906
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: Porter still has some unrealized upside. He hasn't really been great.

907
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 1: Uh he got Sway who probably has flown off but

908
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: was very good last year. So corner could be better yeah,

909
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,399
Speaker 1: I think this team finds a way tonight. I don't

910
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: know if they make the playoffs. That depends on what's

911
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:48,399
Speaker 1: going on with you know, the West and you know, oh,

912
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 1: you know who gets hurt and Bengals defense and whatnot.

913
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: But I like them get I like getting over eight

914
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 1: and a half and you can still get it at

915
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: plus jews, So I would play that, uh, and then

916
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: the Brown five and a half, prust money on the

917
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 1: over four and a half in some spots, juice to

918
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 1: the over. I mean, who starts a quarterback Week one? Placo?

919
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: Who who makes the most starts this year at quarterback?

920
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 2: Placo? I think I think it's like Flacco. I mean

921
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 2: someone in the know like I Flacco is probably like

922
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 2: eight to twelve starts, pick it, maybe three to four.

923
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 2: Chador probably ends up getting a start at the end

924
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 2: of the year or two.

925
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 1: So you would make a fack of an overwhelming favor. Yes,

926
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 1: what is he in the market? I would take the

927
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 1: other side of that action really about it. Yeah, we

928
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 1: got to figure out some odds. Let's we'll figure out

929
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:52,800
Speaker 1: some odds and uh post it somewhere. But yeah, because

930
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,320
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, he's forty like he's forty, and

931
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 1: he wasn't good last He was good those two years ago,

932
00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 1: but he really wasn't good last year.

933
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 2: He's better than he's better than Picket. Who do you

934
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 2: think is gonna start? You think Picket's gonna start?

935
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:09,919
Speaker 1: I think I think it's a toss up between all three.

936
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 1: But I think they like Picket more than we think,

937
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 1: like more than makes with logical sense to any onlooker.

938
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 1: I think they actually like Picket, like on that level.

939
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 1: So I because you're not going to carry four quarterbacks, right, Yeah,

940
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 1: I don't know what the rookies. So I think two

941
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 1: guys gets cut or traded and hoping would be the

942
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,760
Speaker 1: most likely one to get or yeah.

943
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 2: Cut, I don't think you getting was not getting cut?

944
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 1: You don't think so?

945
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 2: No, I think he's starting week one. Do you want

946
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 2: to hear some great I show value in the Browns

947
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 2: over I project them five nine is five eight? Now

948
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 2: Here's I don't know if I'm gonna play it, yeah,

949
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,239
Speaker 2: because I want to wait to see what happens with

950
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks.

951
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: I also there's also trade wrests.

952
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:03,439
Speaker 2: With this team, like other players like their secondary there's

953
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:05,760
Speaker 2: a lot of questions team, But like if if everything,

954
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 2: like if Emerson and knew him get back to twenty

955
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 2: twenty three for him. I mean, they were awful last year.

956
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 2: I think there was like some quick factor in the

957
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 2: Browns on defense just because their offense was so bad.

958
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:19,879
Speaker 2: But like their offensive line, if they stay healthy, has

959
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 2: potential to be decent.

960
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 1: You know.

961
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:26,959
Speaker 2: Obviously the weapons aren't great outside of Judy having the Joker,

962
00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 2: but he could get trade. I could see him geting trade.

963
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 2: I could see like one of the corners getting traded.

964
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 2: But the secondary has potentially. You still have Miles Garrett.

965
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 2: There's like I remember, this is a team that, like

966
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago, won double digit games, and

967
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 2: their quarterback situation has not been great for a long time.

968
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that they can get to six

969
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 2: or seven wins, but it could all fall apart too.

970
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,760
Speaker 2: They could they you know, you could have Shidor Sanders

971
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 2: and Dylan Gabriel starting in the back half of the year.

972
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 2: So I do show value in the over not sure

973
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 2: if I'm going to get there. They're gonna need guys

974
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 2: like calling right to take the next step on the

975
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 2: defensive line, which would help it. I just didn't I

976
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 2: hated their off season, Like what were they doing? Like,

977
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:13,960
Speaker 2: I why did you do? You traded for Picket? Then

978
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:19,240
Speaker 2: you drafted two quarterbacks like late, I mean, and you

979
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 2: you got flat, Like they should just tank and get

980
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 2: get your quarterback next year. I don't know what they're doing.

981
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:26,399
Speaker 1: Do you think they're doing.

982
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 2: I waste two draft picks and a trade on other quarterbacks.

983
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:37,319
Speaker 2: You should draft other positions that have some upside if

984
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 2: you're waiting to get your quarter like just wasting draft

985
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 2: picks and trade like you're not finding your quarterback the.

986
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: End of the third round. A lot of gms don't

987
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,760
Speaker 1: really I mean they view maybe like you know, third

988
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 1: up to the third round started startable, but like by

989
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 1: the time you get to the end of the third round,

990
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 1: a lot of gms are just in pure dart throw territory.

991
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 2: A mistake in my opinion, especially if you're like you're

992
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 2: you're trying to build out a row. I think that's

993
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 2: a major mistake. They are going back to like their

994
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 2: old offense, which I think is a strength for Stefanski.

995
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 2: Like they're going around a lot of their old stuff,

996
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 2: hearing good things about Thewan Jones and left tackle. So yeah,

997
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 2: this team could be feisty and I show a little

998
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 2: bit of it. They're not gonna be good, but I

999
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 2: might dabble on the over but I still have the

1000
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 2: weight on news and things I hear. I know some

1001
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 2: people close to the team, but it's over nothing for

1002
00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: me with the Browns who do. By the way, I

1003
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 2: should have mentioned, their schedule is also rutal. They have

1004
00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:41,240
Speaker 2: the second artist schedule in the NFL. I mean, where's

1005
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 2: a break? Tell me when you're Cincy at Baltimore, Green Bay,

1006
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 2: at Detroit, Minnesota at Neutral, at Pitt Miami, at New

1007
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 2: England at the Jets Baltimore. Yeah, but like these games

1008
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 2: that you're like the easiest are on the road, like

1009
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:57,240
Speaker 2: at New England at the Jets.

1010
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:00,760
Speaker 1: Going to the Jets is actually better than like did

1011
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 1: it like that? No one plays good in freaking.

1012
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:05,319
Speaker 2: Their homes to be but their home looks they're they're

1013
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 2: home games Sincy, green Bay, Minnesota's Neutral, Baltimore, San fran

1014
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 2: I mean, Tennessee. Well, we'll talk with them later. Buffalo

1015
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:18,399
Speaker 2: and Pitt. That's it's brutal. But I lean over. Yeah,

1016
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 2: I'm not having a division thirty three to one. I'll

1017
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 2: tell you that that's on They won the division nineteen

1018
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:23,840
Speaker 2: eighty nine. Who's the AFC Central.

1019
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're probably better off just not getting investing in

1020
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:31,399
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, they drafted five skill players.

1021
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 2: You just told me about them week one. You already

1022
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: invested them. You're going, yeah, yeah, yeah, but.

1023
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,879
Speaker 1: That's against the automatic l Bengals in weeks like.

1024
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:40,279
Speaker 2: Well, there's a win, I'll tell you that's if I

1025
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 2: get that win, I'll be feeling good about my over

1026
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 2: five act.

1027
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:45,759
Speaker 1: Is that that's actually true? Yeah? They win, I mean yeah,

1028
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 1: the win total will bump up a win after after

1029
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:52,719
Speaker 1: after week wins. That actually actually makes a lot of sense.

1030
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 1: All right, so you lean over five and a half

1031
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 1: nothing from me here, all right? That does it for

1032
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 1: the Action Networks AFC wind Totals twenty twenty five podcasts,

1033
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:09,439
Speaker 1: Part one of two where we cover the AFC East

1034
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: and North. Next up the AFC South and the AFC West.

1035
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:13,719
Speaker 1: Let's get this sh.

1036
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 2: Money, Let's go.

1037
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1038
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,440
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1039
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 2: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1040
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler