1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,040
Speaker 1: So we're coming off of the Iowa caucuses and heading

2
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:06,480
Speaker 1: into the New Hampshire primary. It is clear with Donald

3
00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:10,040
Speaker 1: Trump's very decisive when winning with fifty percent of the vote,

4
00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,120
Speaker 1: biggest win in caucus history, that he's the guy.

5
00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:13,640
Speaker 2: You know.

6
00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,759
Speaker 1: DeSantis's only shot really was to try to win Iowa

7
00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,240
Speaker 1: and get a bounce after that. That didn't happen, so

8
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:21,880
Speaker 1: there's no lane for him left. Nikki Haley's going to

9
00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:24,600
Speaker 1: try to perform in New Hampshire, but she'll likely lose

10
00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,440
Speaker 1: and the potentially lose in her home state of South Carolina,

11
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,080
Speaker 1: so there's not really a lane for her. But we're

12
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 1: going to check in with Robert Cohally of the Trafalgar Group.

13
00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,200
Speaker 1: They nailed the Iowa caucuses. They got their numbers right.

14
00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 1: We'll talk to him about why he was accurate and

15
00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,239
Speaker 1: others weren't. Also, is my reading of this correct? Is

16
00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 1: there a lane for anyone else or is it over well?

17
00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,279
Speaker 1: So get his talk on the general election, what he

18
00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,040
Speaker 1: thinks is going to go down. There are there any

19
00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,760
Speaker 1: groups like young voters or minorities that might surprise us? Also,

20
00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,920
Speaker 1: what are the big issues dominating the general election? We're

21
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,080
Speaker 1: going to get into all of it with Robert Calhawley,

22
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,320
Speaker 1: who always has such insightful things to say. I think

23
00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:13,280
Speaker 1: you're really going to enjoy this conversation with Robert. Stay tuned, Robert.

24
00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,319
Speaker 1: It's always great to have you on the show. I

25
00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,679
Speaker 1: love hearing your insight and you know, as we move

26
00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,119
Speaker 1: beyond Iowa and head into New Hampshire, I'm really looking

27
00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:21,880
Speaker 1: forward to what you have to say, so appreciate you

28
00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:22,560
Speaker 1: making the time.

29
00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,600
Speaker 3: Well, it's great to be here, and it's you know,

30
00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,320
Speaker 3: great to be able to expand on kind of what

31
00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,840
Speaker 3: we're thinking and we're seeing out there. Because I know

32
00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 3: you have an audience that is well tuned in into

33
00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:39,560
Speaker 3: this kind of political I guess it would palace intrigue

34
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:41,679
Speaker 3: and it's fun to do it.

35
00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:43,240
Speaker 2: Well, let's brag on you for a minute.

36
00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:47,120
Speaker 1: So you've got the Iowa caucuses correct, and the caucuses

37
00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: are not easy to pull and to try to figure

38
00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,080
Speaker 1: out why do you think you were able to get

39
00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:51,520
Speaker 1: it right?

40
00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,640
Speaker 2: And maybe others sort of missed the mark a little bit.

41
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,680
Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a number of factors. One, we

42
00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:03,800
Speaker 3: really measured some voter intensity and looked at as the

43
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:05,800
Speaker 3: you know, we saw that the weather was going to

44
00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,880
Speaker 3: be quite a factor, and we were able to kind

45
00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,200
Speaker 3: of ask some questions in a way that gave us

46
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,480
Speaker 3: a better and you know, better intention on whether people

47
00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,640
Speaker 3: what they really wanted to do and how strongly that

48
00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:25,000
Speaker 3: they planned to participated, because you know, when when you

49
00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,480
Speaker 3: just let people say, oh, yes, I planned to vote,

50
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:32,440
Speaker 3: that's an easy answer, and sometimes you get an overflow

51
00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,480
Speaker 3: of people who really don't have any intention to vote

52
00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,640
Speaker 3: and I don't really know much about what's going on.

53
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,760
Speaker 3: So one of the filters we use is half people

54
00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:44,400
Speaker 3: ever voted in a caucus before, how consistently have they

55
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,560
Speaker 3: voted in Iowa caucuses? Because you know, when you start

56
00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,240
Speaker 3: talking about ten below zero, you're only going to get

57
00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:55,120
Speaker 3: the most dedicated caucus voters. And so part of that

58
00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:59,480
Speaker 3: is the filtering mechanism, and I think part of it

59
00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 3: is to actually find people that were really tuned in,

60
00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 3: because while the nation didn't watch to see an end debate,

61
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,680
Speaker 3: a lot of people on Iowa did. And that debate

62
00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:14,160
Speaker 3: was one where my most account, Haley really kind of

63
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,919
Speaker 3: got called out by the Santus on a lot of things.

64
00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,080
Speaker 3: And so we saw some shifting after that poll among

65
00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,519
Speaker 3: people who excuse me, after that show among people who

66
00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,840
Speaker 3: said they had watched the CNN debate.

67
00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,000
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting is I was wondering if the sub

68
00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:31,880
Speaker 1: zero temperatures would end up being a curveball. I mean,

69
00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:33,840
Speaker 1: it did depress turnout a little bit. You know, you

70
00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 1: had about fifteen percent of registered Republicans turnout. That's less

71
00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,480
Speaker 1: than previous years. And I was wondering if it would

72
00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,760
Speaker 1: impact Trump, just because you know, he's sort of seen

73
00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,760
Speaker 1: as inevitable, and if someone's seen as inevitable, their people

74
00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 1: might be like, you know what, enough people are going

75
00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,200
Speaker 1: to turn out and support him, I don't need to

76
00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,920
Speaker 1: get out. But that's not what happened, and he won

77
00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,360
Speaker 1: with fifty percent of the boat, the biggest win in

78
00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 1: caucus history. What does that tell you about where the

79
00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,800
Speaker 1: Republican electorate is today? Obviously with him, but beyond that,

80
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:01,760
Speaker 1: what we have.

81
00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 3: Found and we always say, it's really kind of funny

82
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 3: when you ask, okay, who's your second choice? And what

83
00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 3: we found is, you know, most voters will tell us

84
00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,720
Speaker 3: who the second choice is, but then we have a

85
00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:19,000
Speaker 3: great number of them Trump voters. Actually, you use the

86
00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,520
Speaker 3: majority of Trump voters say Trump and say no, no, okay,

87
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,880
Speaker 3: if Trump is an option who's your second Trump? And

88
00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:32,000
Speaker 3: what that tells us is there is an intensity. Most

89
00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,160
Speaker 3: of these Trump voters are on a mission that they

90
00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:40,280
Speaker 3: are they're so angry at what they see on television,

91
00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,040
Speaker 3: what they read in the news, and what they see

92
00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:47,880
Speaker 3: in the world that it's just an itch and the

93
00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,520
Speaker 3: only what is scratcheat is to vote. And it is

94
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:57,280
Speaker 3: like they've got to do this to feel like they're

95
00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 3: taking some kind of a stand against what they're seeing.

96
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,360
Speaker 3: And and that's you know, that's how I would describe

97
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,919
Speaker 3: a large number of Trump buds around the country is

98
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,880
Speaker 3: they're just they're fed up. And the way that they

99
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,200
Speaker 3: are going to show that, the way that they're going

100
00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,240
Speaker 3: to demonstrate that, the way that they're going to scratch

101
00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 3: that itch even a little bit, is to vote.

102
00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,599
Speaker 1: DeSantis, who I have a ton of respect for, you know,

103
00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:23,600
Speaker 1: I've made that know, and I have a ton of

104
00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,600
Speaker 1: respect for Trump too. But you know, look, he put

105
00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,400
Speaker 1: a lot of stock into Iowa, you know, and he

106
00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,000
Speaker 1: ended up losing by by thirty points. Put a lot

107
00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,680
Speaker 1: of money, a lot of time into Iowa. Why do

108
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,039
Speaker 1: you think he fell so short? What do you you

109
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,600
Speaker 1: know based on you know, polling and what you've experienced

110
00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:37,920
Speaker 1: in Iowa.

111
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,520
Speaker 2: Why do you think he fell so short?

112
00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,080
Speaker 3: People want to blame it on him, and I just

113
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:47,920
Speaker 3: really don't. You know, certainly he is not the best candidate.

114
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:52,359
Speaker 3: While he has this incredible record as governor, he's not

115
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,400
Speaker 3: the best candidate. You know, he's not the best retail politician.

116
00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,400
Speaker 3: But he certainly was trying, and he was making the

117
00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,760
Speaker 3: effort in person. But I think as all these indictments

118
00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 3: started to ring up and everything, there just there came

119
00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 3: a Republican uh unity of this isn't gonna fly. I'm

120
00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,599
Speaker 3: not gonna let this stand. And even if they preferred

121
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,920
Speaker 3: the saentis uh, they just said, what, you know, the

122
00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,760
Speaker 3: only way to push back is to be for Trump.

123
00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,160
Speaker 3: And I think all the trouble that's happened, and all

124
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:34,560
Speaker 3: the Biden and administration uh attacks and everything that's happened

125
00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,279
Speaker 3: against Trump, I have more done more to make Trump

126
00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,360
Speaker 3: than And at the same time, they've kind of undone

127
00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 3: dissanas uh. And so you know, I've always said from

128
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,480
Speaker 3: this primary, there was there were two lanes. It was

129
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 3: kind of an America first lane and an establishment lane,

130
00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,920
Speaker 3: and Trump just started to consolidate the America First lane

131
00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:02,520
Speaker 3: and when since that represents about, you know, fifty or

132
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:07,520
Speaker 3: so percent of the vote, it absolutely has a huge

133
00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:12,000
Speaker 3: impact when the voters go to the polls and they

134
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:16,640
Speaker 3: when they kind of got behind, they're not behind Trump,

135
00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:18,560
Speaker 3: just the Scientus was the victim of it.

136
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,320
Speaker 1: You mentioned that establishment lane. You know, Nicki Haley fits

137
00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,160
Speaker 1: the bill. You know, we're heading into New Hampshire where

138
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,120
Speaker 1: she's hoping that you know, she does better than Iowa.

139
00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 1: But it's really hard to see a lane for anyone

140
00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,600
Speaker 1: else really besides Trump at this point because if you're DeSantis,

141
00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,280
Speaker 1: I was really like the place where you know, if

142
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,080
Speaker 1: you're going to make a stand, that was going to

143
00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:39,720
Speaker 1: be it. You know, He's not really set up for

144
00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,000
Speaker 1: New Hampshire or South Carolina, and Nicky Haley set up

145
00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,080
Speaker 1: for New Hampshire. But it looks like she's down pretty

146
00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,400
Speaker 1: significantly and then she might lose her home state. So

147
00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,240
Speaker 1: is there a lane left for anyone or is it

148
00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:51,480
Speaker 1: pretty much game over?

149
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,960
Speaker 3: It's politics and you think it happen. But at this point, though,

150
00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,880
Speaker 3: I don't see much of the lane, And frankly, I

151
00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:04,160
Speaker 3: think that Haley has to really I think she probably

152
00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,200
Speaker 3: to continue. I think she would have to win New

153
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:14,720
Speaker 3: Hampshire because I don't know whether she has calculated what

154
00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:19,120
Speaker 3: getting devastated in South Carolina will do to her, but

155
00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:24,360
Speaker 3: I think that it becomes kind of part of somebody's obituary.

156
00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,240
Speaker 3: I mean, we still talk about the fact that Gore

157
00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,560
Speaker 3: will be president, but for the fact he lost Tennessee.

158
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,160
Speaker 3: And I think it would be hard for her to

159
00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:37,199
Speaker 3: go on in politics if she gets wallopped in South Carolina.

160
00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,320
Speaker 3: And so if she doesn't come out of New Hampshire

161
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:47,480
Speaker 3: with a complete head of steam and a complete vindication

162
00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:52,040
Speaker 3: and be able to make the case to donors that

163
00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:57,079
Speaker 3: this is a safe investment, then I can't see her

164
00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,800
Speaker 3: going on to South Carolina. But again, you know, that's

165
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 3: a political calculus that that I see thinking about things

166
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,080
Speaker 3: the way that I do. That may not be the

167
00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,280
Speaker 3: way they Hailey sees it, But you know, I'm thinking

168
00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,960
Speaker 3: about what I would think if I were Hailey, about

169
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 3: what my future looks like, and to get devastated in

170
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,920
Speaker 3: South Caron and I don't think bodes well for her

171
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:21,920
Speaker 3: liked ability in the future. Yeah.

172
00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,000
Speaker 1: I mean, look, if if I was working on either

173
00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,760
Speaker 1: DeSantis or Hate, well, I wouldn't be working on Haley.

174
00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,240
Speaker 2: But if I was working on either of their campaigns.

175
00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,320
Speaker 1: I've made my disdain for Nicki Haley very known, But

176
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,079
Speaker 1: if if I was working on either of them, I

177
00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,680
Speaker 1: would be like, you know, for Desantas, I would be like,

178
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,079
Speaker 1: if you lose Iowa, you got to drop out because

179
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,280
Speaker 1: at this point it's time to save face. You night

180
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,360
Speaker 1: behind Trump, you know, let's fight the greater evil. And

181
00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:47,240
Speaker 1: then you know, if you're Haley, same thing. If she

182
00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:49,319
Speaker 1: loses New Hampshire, you don't want to get crushed in

183
00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,800
Speaker 1: her home state, as you just pointed out, So you know,

184
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,800
Speaker 1: I'd probably like, would you know, Haley makes sense for

185
00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,200
Speaker 1: to stick in until New Hampshire at least, But it's like,

186
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,000
Speaker 1: if you're DeSantis, I feel like you got to drip

187
00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,200
Speaker 1: about now, save some face before getting crushed in New

188
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 1: Hampshire and then South Carolina. And if you're Nikki Haley,

189
00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,240
Speaker 1: you got to drop out after getting crushed in New Hampshire,

190
00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 1: before getting disgraced in your home state where you were

191
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:11,439
Speaker 1: a governor.

192
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,559
Speaker 3: But then again, you know, it's possible Haley could lose

193
00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,440
Speaker 3: New Hampshire and give a speech on the night she

194
00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,720
Speaker 3: loses the town like a victory speech, because she clearly

195
00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 3: had the wrong speech in the tele prompt from when

196
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 3: she came in third in Iowa. I mean, you really

197
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,280
Speaker 3: would have thought that she was on the way of

198
00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 3: the nomination the way she was talking, so, uh, you know,

199
00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,840
Speaker 3: that was kind of surprising to me. I thought she

200
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,160
Speaker 3: really just little was given the wrong speech. It. Yeah,

201
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,959
Speaker 3: maybe somebody didn't tell her she came in third. I

202
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:45,320
Speaker 3: don't know.

203
00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,840
Speaker 1: I feel like sometimes it's like professional athletes when you know,

204
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,360
Speaker 1: they just don't know when to bow out. You know,

205
00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:53,720
Speaker 1: like you know, bow out after the state, you know,

206
00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 1: or after you know, the Super Bowl, when you're you know,

207
00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,520
Speaker 1: old and you're kind of on your last leg.

208
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,240
Speaker 2: It's like people just never know when to kind of

209
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:02,240
Speaker 2: gracefully bow out.

210
00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,839
Speaker 1: It seems as we look ahead at what will likely

211
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:11,120
Speaker 1: and inevitably be Trump versus Biden, where do things stand today,

212
00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,720
Speaker 1: obviously knowing that we still have a lot of time

213
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:14,960
Speaker 1: between now and November.

214
00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,200
Speaker 3: I think right now what you're seeing is Trump has

215
00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,480
Speaker 3: a degree of strength. But what has not happened yet

216
00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:27,440
Speaker 3: as the Democrat Party is leaps and bounds ahead of

217
00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:31,880
Speaker 3: the Republican Party when it comes to organizing their assets

218
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:37,160
Speaker 3: and organizing their funders, to do the kind of work

219
00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:38,920
Speaker 3: that needs to be done when you look at the

220
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,880
Speaker 3: kind of thing as they've done with Arabella and nonprofits.

221
00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:47,800
Speaker 3: They will start to raise money and start messaging. And

222
00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,079
Speaker 3: they've already started in some of the states with ads

223
00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,640
Speaker 3: on issues that are starting to kind of cook the

224
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:58,319
Speaker 3: electric towards their direction. And what I fear is that

225
00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:02,880
Speaker 3: the traditional thing will happen. The Republicans will wait until

226
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,720
Speaker 3: months before the election to even start egg campaigns. Then

227
00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 3: you know, spend the money with people who run lackluster,

228
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 3: cookie cutter ads as they've done the past. Big consultants

229
00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,599
Speaker 3: and brokers will you know, buy a new yacht or

230
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,480
Speaker 3: a new vacation home with the with the with the

231
00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:25,800
Speaker 3: money they've sucked out of these efforts, And the Democrats

232
00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,160
Speaker 3: will be able to move the electorate and make this

233
00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,360
Speaker 3: election very very competitive and uh you know, fund some

234
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 3: of the shenanigans and nonsense in some of the states

235
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:41,320
Speaker 3: where they have lacks laws regarding voter harvesting and absentees

236
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,400
Speaker 3: and all that stuff. And so I think they can

237
00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,560
Speaker 3: make it much more competitive. Uh you know, I say

238
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,840
Speaker 3: what my general feeling is the when you look at

239
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,720
Speaker 3: the difference between the Democrat operation, and I mean, you know,

240
00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,920
Speaker 3: beyond just the dn Z, but their whole operation of

241
00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,880
Speaker 3: the left and the right. The left wants to win

242
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,800
Speaker 3: and the right has a bunch of individuals who want

243
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:05,880
Speaker 3: to get rich and if they win to that's cool.

244
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:11,360
Speaker 1: I think that's a really sad but accurate summation of

245
00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,320
Speaker 1: where things stand between the two parties. You know, what

246
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,520
Speaker 1: are those issues you mentioned that Democrats are going to

247
00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 1: try to make this about is abortion, and we see

248
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,840
Speaker 1: them trying to get abortion on the ballot in swing

249
00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,480
Speaker 1: states to turn out women, to turn out young people.

250
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,520
Speaker 1: How big of a concern is that for Republicans? And

251
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:30,719
Speaker 1: then you know how much of a galvanizing issue has

252
00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:32,920
Speaker 1: this been in recent elections.

253
00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:37,600
Speaker 3: I think it's been a big issue. In twenty twenty two,

254
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:42,320
Speaker 3: the ruling was so new, and so the scare tactics worked.

255
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,720
Speaker 3: You know, you had a few states rushing immediately to

256
00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,720
Speaker 3: try to make abortion illegal, and so all the things

257
00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:53,559
Speaker 3: they said would happened started to happen. And this idea

258
00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:59,079
Speaker 3: of that everything is falling apart for those who believe

259
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:04,640
Speaker 3: in having legalized abortion, some of some all the way

260
00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 3: up to third trimester and beyond, with martial work. Those

261
00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,440
Speaker 3: people felt like that, you know, the sky was falling,

262
00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:16,520
Speaker 3: and they felt like a need to go vote. And

263
00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,200
Speaker 3: I think it settled out a little bit more because

264
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 3: some of these you know, some of these states have

265
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,680
Speaker 3: already dealt with this, you know, whether it's Michigan or Highway,

266
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 3: it's already been dealt with. And so I don't expect

267
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 3: you to see a big impact there. And I do

268
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,800
Speaker 3: believe that on states where it is on the ballot,

269
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 3: it could have an impact, just as as having you know,

270
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,280
Speaker 3: marriage on the ballot in two thousand and four is

271
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:50,680
Speaker 3: probably the direct relation to the fact that Bush won again.

272
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,520
Speaker 3: I don't know that he would have won again if

273
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,840
Speaker 3: that were not kind of a big effort that swept

274
00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 3: the nation on turning out people to depend traditional marriage.

275
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:05,320
Speaker 3: So I think these these outside factors can affect elections.

276
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,480
Speaker 3: So I think that this battle about putting things on

277
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:13,040
Speaker 3: the ballot is a smart one for the Democrats, and

278
00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,600
Speaker 3: it's one that the Republicans are going to be forced

279
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 3: to start dealing with this. And the thing is, Republicans,

280
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 3: when they delivered the message right, they don't lose. But

281
00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,520
Speaker 3: when the Democrats outspind you two to one, like, well,

282
00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,960
Speaker 3: what would just happen to Virginia? You had Youngkin doing

283
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 3: a great job, but he was fighting the entire Democrat party.

284
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,600
Speaker 3: He lamented that he couldn't get any money out of

285
00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 3: the Republican Party. I mean, so you know, why should

286
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 3: one governor have to raise enough money with his packs

287
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 3: and everything else to fight for his entire stake and

288
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 3: an election that the country is looking at and the

289
00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,480
Speaker 3: Republican parties sit on the side they weren't going to lose.

290
00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,800
Speaker 3: Look what happened in Mississippi. They weren't going to lose

291
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:05,200
Speaker 3: Missippiar Louisiana. So where with all the resources, why are

292
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,200
Speaker 3: they not Why would they are partnering with him the

293
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 3: same as the Democrats partner with the other side. So

294
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 3: when the Republicans get out spent, then our message doesn't

295
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,720
Speaker 3: get hurt. You know, we need when the Republicans talk

296
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 3: about abortion restrictions and and and small limits on abortion

297
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,200
Speaker 3: that you know, they win when they talk about things

298
00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 3: that seem reasonable. But when the when the word abortion

299
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 3: ban is the beginning of the winning of the sentence,

300
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:35,640
Speaker 3: then it really doesn't matter what is at the end

301
00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,680
Speaker 3: of it. So when the media says the Republicans advocate

302
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 3: an abortion ban beyond you know, fifteen weeks. They are,

303
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,520
Speaker 3: they all people, here's the word ban, you know what.

304
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 3: But when they when the other side says, we're just

305
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 3: talking about a reasonable restriction and abortion and you know,

306
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 3: making sure after you know, a heartbeat or fifteen weeks

307
00:16:56,360 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 3: or whatever line they put that has a greater impact,

308
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 3: and people go, well, that doesn't sound unreasonable. But again,

309
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,560
Speaker 3: it doesn't really matter if one message trounces the other

310
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 3: one because of the resources. And our problem is really

311
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:16,199
Speaker 3: a resource message and message problem is we're just not

312
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 3: getting this message out because the Republicans are not dedicating

313
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 3: the resources and are not as all in as the

314
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:28,480
Speaker 3: Democrats are. You know, this is an existential election for

315
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,919
Speaker 3: the Democrat but not bringing so much the Democrat. But

316
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 3: the extreme left knows if they don't win this time,

317
00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:42,000
Speaker 3: that their entire agenda now having been exposed, that they're done,

318
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,960
Speaker 3: that they're done with the radicalism, and the Democrat Party

319
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,800
Speaker 3: may go back in the hands of reasonable people. And

320
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,280
Speaker 3: they fear this, I mean, the extreme left fears this,

321
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,879
Speaker 3: that these being exposed, and so I think that you know,

322
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 3: they're more all in uh many ways. And then the

323
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,679
Speaker 3: conservative apparatus is not not the conservative voters, but the

324
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 3: conservative apparatus.

325
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 1: We'll take a quick commercial break more with Robert on

326
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 1: the other side. One thing that concerns me you talk

327
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,199
Speaker 1: about resources, and I've expressed this concern before, is you know,

328
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 1: part of what the Democrats' strategy is is to tie

329
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,440
Speaker 1: Trump up with all these indictments, to tie him up

330
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 1: to have to be at these court hearings, to tie

331
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 1: him up financially where he's directing his money towards defending

332
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 1: himself legally as opposed to spending it on the campaign.

333
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,920
Speaker 1: What kind of wildcard do you think these indictments are?

334
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 1: And you know, how do you think that that could

335
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 1: potentially play out among the electorate.

336
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 3: Well, let me give me an example. You have Iowa.

337
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 3: While the Santus was proud that he went to all

338
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,640
Speaker 3: ninety nine counties and talked about nine to nine counties.

339
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 3: Guess what your average Trump voters when you if you

340
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 3: ask them, what do you think about the SATs going

341
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 3: to all the counties and doing all this work and

342
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,160
Speaker 3: Trump not being here as much? You know what they say, Well,

343
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 3: Trump's tied up with this legal stuff. It actually kind

344
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 3: of works to Trump's benefit. Every time Trump isn't somewhere,

345
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 3: can't do something that they want him to do, that

346
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 3: there's an understanding of, well, you know, he's distracted with

347
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 3: all this, so it kind of and and all these

348
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 3: things have the piling on is what has given Trump

349
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,120
Speaker 3: the strength that he has. I mean, they have really

350
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: underestimated this. They have created almost as Nelson Mandela style

351
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 3: persecution of Trump, and you know, to actually try to

352
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 3: put him in jail is only going to do more

353
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 3: to enrage his supporters and to turn out people that

354
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 3: you just can't imagine.

355
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 1: Do you think that will say, I agree with you

356
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: in the way that it's with Republicans and conservatives who obviously,

357
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 1: you know, have a lot of grave concerns about the

358
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,919
Speaker 1: weaponization of government, But do you think that will be

359
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 1: the same with independence and trying to win over moderates.

360
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 3: The fact that he's doing as well as he's doing

361
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 3: with the African American vote and the Hispanic vote and

362
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 3: the young vote tells me that, yes, the people people

363
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,439
Speaker 3: can see something that's ridiculous. I mean, how can you

364
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 3: watch mainstream media as pushy as it is against something

365
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,360
Speaker 3: and still be supportive of Trump? How can an African

366
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: American voter in inner city Atlantic, exposed to all the

367
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 3: things they're exposed to it, all the messages they get,

368
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 3: whether it be social media or TV or radio or

369
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 3: you know, what they read. How can they have all

370
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 3: this message and still consider Trump? And the fact is

371
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 3: they're not. People in general aren't buying it. It is

372
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 3: you know, I said few ago that what my fear

373
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 3: is is that we were on the way to becoming

374
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: like North Korea and Iran, where people know that what

375
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 3: they see on the television isn't true. And so their

376
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,239
Speaker 3: skepticism grows as all these attacks happen. And so a

377
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 3: lot of these voters that we're talking about are those

378
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 3: middle voters, those voters who may be voted for Obama

379
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 3: and then Trump and then back back to Biden because

380
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 3: they thought the Trump was bad and they realized, oh

381
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 3: wait a minute, now, this that wasn't quite what we

382
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 3: thought it was. And so you can tell people something

383
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 3: all day, you can scream it in their ear, but

384
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 3: if their life experience is different than what you tell them,

385
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,959
Speaker 3: they're going what that their life experience is, and they

386
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 3: remember what their life was like in a Trump and

387
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,199
Speaker 3: they know what their life is like now, and so

388
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 3: all these attacks don't move them as much. And it

389
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 3: really adds credits to what Trump is saying, is that

390
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 3: they're out to get me because I want to get

391
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 3: I want to bring things back to you the way

392
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 3: they work.

393
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: That makes sense. It's comforting on that note.

394
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 1: And talking about well, actually you had mentioned, you know,

395
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: young people and minorities. What sort of groups do you

396
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: think might surprise us this election cycle?

397
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's definitely young people. There there's definitely

398
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 3: been a move you know, you see it as almost

399
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 3: generational people want to kind of rebel against what their

400
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 3: parents are doing. And that you know, now as we

401
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 3: start to see the you know, the gen zs are

402
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 3: starting to have their own kids, and some of their

403
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 3: kids are really rebelling and going back conservative uh, in

404
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 3: spite of what the parents think. And so there's there's

405
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 3: a movement uh kind of reminiscent of what I remember

406
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 3: when I was in school. Uh, you know, we were

407
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 3: able to get you know, a little teenage Republican branches

408
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 3: going and all that kind of stuff, and and and

409
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: you know for a while now that's kind of dwindled away,

410
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: and I see that coming back, you know, so I

411
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: think that the young people are going to surprise folks

412
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:13,400
Speaker 3: because that they're starting to realize that that what they're

413
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 3: getting with all of the mainstream mesquet isn't real. But

414
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 3: these guys are connected in a different way, you know,

415
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 3: their connection and what you look at the guy of

416
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 3: the podcast and the videos they're watching and that they're

417
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 3: seeing there's another side and they're exposed to things they

418
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 3: never thought, the messages they never heard, and so I

419
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 3: think it's it's captivating to a lot of them. And

420
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: to see all of the attention and attacks that are

421
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 3: going on this one guy is like, you know, you

422
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: can only you can only beat somebody so many times

423
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 3: in the coliseum before you start getting some sympathy from

424
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 3: some of the people, some of the spectators. That's why

425
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 3: I would describe it. And it's like that it just

426
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 3: comes a point if you remember, like and I know

427
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 3: this is a movie, but remember how Rocky was getting

428
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: beat up so much that even some and still surviving

429
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 3: and hanging in that even some of the Russian fans

430
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 3: started to cheer for him. You know, while that was

431
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 3: a movie, that is a real thing. And I think

432
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 3: that that kind of mentality you're seeing with some of

433
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: these young people.

434
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 2: Now, that's really interesting, you know. I mean it's true.

435
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 1: I mean Trump is a beast that I think, you know,

436
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 1: unlike anyone else in the sense of he seems to

437
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: somehow be able to withstand you know, almost everything that

438
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 1: would you know, obviously break most people. I mean, I

439
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: don't think many people could face ninety one indictments without

440
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: breaking down.

441
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 2: I don't think I could do any I'm not gonna lie.

442
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 1: It's just like, you know, he's just a unique entity

443
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 1: in politics and just life. You know, what are some

444
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 1: of the big, big issues that you think are just

445
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: passionately driving the electorate?

446
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 3: Things? For sure? Is that is I think an outfront

447
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 3: issue is the border. People are now recognizing just how

448
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 3: destabilizing it is to the entire country to have this

449
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 3: open border and to have all these these folks that

450
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 3: that are coming in there that are not being vetted properly,

451
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 3: and we're talking about we're talking about the basket with

452
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 3: jar of Americans. You know, they're not against immigration, they're

453
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 3: not against legal immigration. As a matter of fact that

454
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: most most people are pro immigration. They understand it is

455
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 3: America's strength, but it has to be orderly and it,

456
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: and what they're seeing is all these resources being spent

457
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 3: for these people that are coming into the country, while

458
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: while so many of those resources are not being spent

459
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: on other people. You know, the stories about the kids

460
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 3: who can't go to school in New York, you know

461
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 3: the stories about homeless veterans that aren't getting the attention

462
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 3: and funding they need. All these things that are out

463
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 3: there because of migration coming into the country and people

464
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 3: are overwhelming cities. They this is this is a motor

465
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 3: motivational thing. And almost everybody now can point to someone

466
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: they know that has died from an overdose or some

467
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 3: kind of exposure to fentanyl, and that is so easily

468
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: tied back to this uh uh legal or immigration and

469
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 3: people coming in and smuggling things in as they come in.

470
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 3: And so I think that is probably the most the

471
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 3: strongest issue on the surface, followed closely and quickly by

472
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 3: the economy. Uh. While everybody's affected by immigration, not everybody's

473
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 3: affected in the same way about the economy. So for

474
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 3: some people, you know, the increase in prices uh and

475
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 3: is just an inconvenient but for some people it has

476
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: put their their family and their survival on the edge.

477
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 3: I mean, the number of the faults we're seeing on

478
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: credit cards, and and and and car loans, and and

479
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 3: the number of people who are using these credit cards

480
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: to simply buy groceries. It's out of control. And those

481
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 3: people they don't they don't see any hope unless they change,

482
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 3: you know, they had they had the government, because you know,

483
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 3: they say that people you know sometimes fairly and unfairly

484
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: blamed the president for the economy. But you know this

485
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 3: this president, it's a little more fair to blame him.

486
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 3: I mean, what he's done simply with energy and and

487
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: with spending is enough to devastate the economy and increase inflation,

488
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 3: uh to a point where the you know, the only

489
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 3: choice that the fat had to do was to raise

490
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: interest rates to try to drive solve the problem, which

491
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: which is certainly compound of the problem for so many

492
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: of these folks who you know, can't even afford to

493
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 3: refinance a home or any or access any equity or

494
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 3: anything to kind of get through this rough patch. So

495
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 3: I think the economy a second only because it doesn't

496
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 3: affect everybody equally. But I think other issues that are

497
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 3: bubbling up is the real fear. And I think we

498
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 3: haven't seen this. You know, certainly people in my generation

499
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 3: and beyond don't ever remember being scared scared of another country,

500
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 3: scared of the possible war. I mean, you know, we

501
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: kind of grew up, you know, after the moon landing

502
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: and where America was on top. There wasn't any real

503
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: fear that America was going to lose to Russia, I mean,

504
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 3: to the Soviet Union at that point, and so there

505
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 3: wasn't a fear of a world war. Will you know,

506
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: they see Russia and China get together and for the

507
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: first time, we see the makings of a coalition that

508
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: could actually defeat us, and it is scary. And then

509
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 3: kind of a backdrop is this fear that we actually

510
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 3: could be headed to a war. So it's like, you know,

511
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 3: we get we had an invasion on our borders, We've

512
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 3: got an economy that it is failing for you know,

513
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 3: millions of people, and in the back of people's minds,

514
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 3: we might be headed to a world war. So I

515
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 3: think these things are the issues that are real. Uh,

516
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 3: we see this and polling that are bubbling up as

517
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 3: real concerns.

518
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: There are real concerns that you know, I think all

519
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 1: of us share. You'd have to be you know, blind

520
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: or just you know, ignorant to not see that things

521
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: have taken a major downturn for the worse on you know,

522
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: pretty much all fronts, and especially the ones that you

523
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 1: just laid out, you know, Robert, As we continue to watch,

524
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: as we move forward with this election cycle, what should

525
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: people listening, you know, what should we be looking for?

526
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: What should we be keeping an eye on?

527
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: Well, I think you should be keeping out one the

528
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 3: difference between the two organizations. When you talk about the

529
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: conservative apparatus and the left. You'll watch very soon the

530
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 3: ramping up of major efforts to put in place and

531
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 3: reactivate ballid harvesting apparatus. I mean, now, maybe go one example,

532
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 3: what I saw in Georgia firsthand when I was watching

533
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 3: the way the election was unfolding down there. I mean,

534
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 3: it was the Democrats and different than the Democrat and Republicans,

535
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 3: was just vast Democrats sending a thousand operatives through the

536
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 3: state of Georgia that we're going to people person to

537
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 3: person working with them.

538
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 2: For midterms or twenty twenty just clear midterms.

539
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: Midterms for basically the Senate race and the runoffs in

540
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one for the twenty twenty those two races,

541
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 3: so you know, irrespective of the presidential race. So these guys,

542
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 3: these operators will own the ground, one to one, working

543
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 3: with people, showing them how to go to their friends

544
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 3: and build an apparatus where they go and they have

545
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,959
Speaker 3: the thing they work with their cell phone and plug

546
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 3: in for them to make sure all the people who

547
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 3: are in their cell phone contact list voted. I mean,

548
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 3: this is the kind of one to one campaign that

549
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 3: when we used to do campaigns, we've trained people to

550
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 3: do that. There's nothing more personal, no more powerful than

551
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 3: that person you know, reaching out to you. Well, just

552
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 3: imagine how that happens when you have this many operatives

553
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 3: who then deputize this many people. Then they oversee to

554
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 3: make sure they are working their groups. And the Republicans,

555
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 3: you know, runs of ads and that a mailer or two.

556
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 3: There's just no competition, there's no comparison. These people fund

557
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:24,959
Speaker 3: real grassroots and so you'll see those differences starting to

558
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 3: take place in battleground states. We saw it in twenty

559
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: twenty and in twenty twenty two, we saw it in every

560
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 3: state with a US Senate race. Not every state, but

561
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 3: every state with the US Senate race. What I like

562
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 3: to point out is in twenty twenty two there was

563
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 3: a red wave and in the States where they did

564
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 3: not build the Blue Wall and the blue apparatus came

565
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 3: in for the grassroots. We saw the red wave working,

566
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 3: you know, we saw it in even in New York.

567
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 3: They didn't lost until the last minute. New York was

568
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 3: the problem. They didn't build it in New York, so

569
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 3: they were freaking out. But they but they built that

570
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 3: thing in Arizona, they built it in Nevada, they built

571
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 3: it in Georgia, they built it in Wisconsin, and they

572
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 3: were ready. And so that's what I think will be

573
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 3: the biggest indicator that you'll start to see that this

574
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 3: thing is owned and and the Republican Party at this point,

575
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 3: the conservtive movement has no answer for this, has no

576
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 3: corresponding organization to put in place. That's so I think

577
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 3: you'll see that start to happen. You'll see the messaging

578
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 3: start to happen, and you'll see new you know, new

579
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: new fear tactics. Uh that there'll be a big push

580
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 3: to kind of abandon some of the rules again and

581
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 3: and loosen up some of the election laws. I mean,

582
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 3: so they they will they will play as if they

583
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 3: have nothing nothing to lose, that that they they're going

584
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: to lay it all on the line and so and

585
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: you and you'll see, as usual, uh, you know, a

586
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 3: few conservative oligarchs siphoning off all the money and directing

587
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 3: it to their friends and family for uh, for operations

588
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 3: that are that are incompetent at at worst and ineffective

589
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 3: at best. And and you'll see the you know, the

590
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 3: divide start so well. I believe the issues, the real

591
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 3: issues are on the side of the of the right,

592
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 3: and I believe the voters on the side of the

593
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 3: right that isn't that will not compare to what they're doing.

594
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 3: And so this will be a very competitive election and

595
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 3: it'll you know, it'll kind of be a street fight.

596
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 2: Quick break more on the upcoming election real quick before

597
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: we go.

598
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 1: Does the threat to democracy narrative play out well designed?

599
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: Is that effective? What Biden's trying to do with that?

600
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 3: One of the things that I used to say when

601
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 3: I I was a consultant was the two biggest mistakes

602
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 3: in politics is looking at a campaign and assuming the

603
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 3: side that one did everything right and the side that

604
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 3: lost did everything wrong. And I think that in twenty

605
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 3: twenty two. Some of the Democrats victories had a lot

606
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 3: more to do with this apparatus and this work they did,

607
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 3: and the fear tactics of the abortion argument, and they

608
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 3: really misunderstood and thought the threat democracy stuff was real.

609
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 3: And a lot of that had to do with exit

610
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 3: polls that said it was real. But you know my

611
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 3: thought of exit polls, they're junk because I'm always a

612
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 3: believer that a person to person people will tell you

613
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: what they think you want to hear, and not what

614
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 3: they're ashamed to admit is driving them. And if you

615
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 3: think that's bad on the telephone, how bad is that

616
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 3: standing in front of somebody with a clipboard. They might

617
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 3: be voting on something else and tell you, you know, if

618
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: you ask some rank issues that that's what it is.

619
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 3: So I don't we buy that. I don't think it

620
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: was a real effective argument then. And you know the

621
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,439
Speaker 3: real I think that when the Trump for somebody else

622
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 3: in the right test with a real threat to democracy

623
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 3: is destabilizing the economy, locking up political opponents of a

624
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 3: border that's uncontrolled and weakness that invites aggression from the

625
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 3: other side, I think the conservative side can make the

626
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 3: case that that's a greater threat to democracy. And this

627
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 3: is not a real argument and it's not showing up

628
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,760
Speaker 3: and pulling either compared to all the other threats out there.

629
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 3: But don't get me wrong. You get there enough operatives

630
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 3: and enough messaging saying it at the threat, they can

631
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 3: create something that isn't there if it's not answered.

632
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 2: Oh that's a good point, you know.

633
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: Then it's also just ironic that they're saying it's a

634
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: threat to democracy. Well, demandankeys removed from the Ballance States.

635
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 2: It's like it's like, uh, this does not a track, Robert.

636
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: Yeah. And what's a griter threat to democracy than losing

637
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 3: a world war? Yeah?

638
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 2: Well, god, it's you know, it really is. Uh.

639
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: You know, as we kind of just walk through everything

640
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: facing us right now, it's a sad state of affairs,

641
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:22,280
Speaker 1: and you know, just really pray that we can deny

642
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 1: Joe Biden another four years and you know, get Trump

643
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 1: in the White House because we can't continue on this trajectory.

644
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: Robert Caley, you're awesome, congrats on nailing Iowa and would

645
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 1: love to have you back on as we go throughout

646
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: the selection cycle to get your input and get your insight.

647
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 3: Sounds good. It's always a pleasure to to join you

648
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 3: and to speak to your very tuned in and engaged audience.

649
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 1: That was Robert Kahauley with the Trafalgar Group. Always love

650
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: hearing his insight. He always has so many just interesting

651
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 1: and really inful things to say. I want to thank

652
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 1: you guys at home for listening every Monday and Thursday,

653
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: but you can listen throughout the week. I want to

654
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 1: thank John Cassio for putting the show together. Until next time,