1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Since we have Lisa here, 7 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: we figured we'd booked a whole bunch of super smart 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: rates guests, So pream Isra is the first on our 9 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 1: docket to join us. Pre a great to have you 10 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 1: on the program. Um, I'm gonna kind of sit back 11 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 1: while you and Lisa explain to me what's going on. 12 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: I know that what the curve is inverted for like 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 1: the third time, maybe the fourth time, right, Um, and 14 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: Jay help me out. Lisa, Sorry, Lee, Lisa helped me out. 15 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: Jay Powell pays attention to the three month tenure, but 16 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: we're all fixated on the two year, ten year. Well, okay, 17 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: so there are yield curve in versions. People. If it's 18 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: waiting for this, you're seeing people really bid into the 19 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: long end. There is this expectation for some sort of recession. 20 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: But the thing that really has struck me in Matt. 21 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 1: You know, to me, the fascinating aspect is that people 22 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: are already pricing in rate cuts, and a lot of 23 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: people are pushing back and saying it is too soon 24 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: to predict the FED will curtail their rate hiking cycle. 25 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: Can you weigh in on that, this idea that there 26 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: is going to be some sort of retracement of a 27 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: federal reserve that is dead set uncurtailing inflation. Sure, thanks 28 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: for having me, and I love all the rich talc. 29 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: It's it's really the heart of the issue right now. 30 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 1: So you know, I think it's fair the market pricing 31 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: in these cuts. What I struggled with not so much 32 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: as the concern. I mean, the FED is likely to 33 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: hike at the fastest space into the highest level really 34 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: since the nineties, so it is a significant amount of frightening. 35 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: We also have balance sheet run off, so there is 36 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: a lot of tightening, and so I think the concern 37 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: about growth and the consumer six months out, one year out, 38 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: I think is legitimate, and which is why we're actually 39 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: long long and real rates. We went long last week. 40 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: What I struggled with is the pricing and of rate cuts. 41 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: I think the FED is telling us, and I'm taking 42 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: them at face value. They've changed their reaction function. They 43 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: care about inflation unconditionally, which means, even though they know 44 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: that they have a dual mandate, if growth slows down, 45 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: I think they'll view it as collateral damage. They really 46 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: have to get price stability and their inflation credibility back 47 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: on track. So if inflation stays higher, we're looking for 48 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: another actually above consensus headline inflation number this week. We're 49 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: concerned that that's going to make the FED continue to hike, 50 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: and I think the market pricing and cuts right after 51 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:45,959 Speaker 1: the last hike that I struggled with, I think they're 52 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: going to stay on hold for a while, so that 53 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: inversion that Matt's talking about. I think that inversion stays 54 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: deepens further because we're all going to wait for the 55 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: FED to respond to slower growth, and they're going to 56 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: be their hands are a bit tied until inflation gets 57 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,119 Speaker 1: closer to percent. I don't think they'll have that. It's 58 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: two percent the number that we're looking for pre I 59 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: was reading a note from Ben Emmons over at Medley 60 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 1: Advisors this weekend, and he says, um an unemployment rate 61 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: of sorry, uh uh, an inflation rate of three point 62 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: six percent would be three and a half percent would 63 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: be headed in the right direction. I think it's headed 64 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: in the right direction. It can help them slow down 65 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: the place of hikes like we're looking for after this 66 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: fifties twenty five. But I think to ease you have 67 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: to have two percent very clearly in front of you. 68 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: I think three and a half is still too high. 69 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: I mean, if we're a two and a half, that's 70 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: a big decline and growth is slowing significantly. I think 71 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: that might be mode level where they can cut. But 72 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: absolutely I think getting to three three and a half, 73 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: they'll say, look, their success, our tightening is having an impact. 74 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: We can slow down, we can pause the hiking cycle. 75 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: I think cutting is just a higher hurdle. Right. We're 76 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: speaking with Permsra Ahead of Rates Strategy over at TV Securities. 77 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: Prior earlier this morning, we were speaking with Sonalza Sai, 78 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: a Franklin Templeton who said she expects inflation headline and 79 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: c p I to remain at about seven and a 80 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: half to eight percent at year end. What kind of 81 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 1: FED funds rate would that imply if the Fed really 82 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 1: saw that inflation, Yes, was trending down, but only by 83 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: about a percentage point. Oh that's not a good That's 84 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: much higher than our forecast. We've got FED funds closed 85 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: like three seventy five by your en four percent biole 86 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 1: next year with a five and a half percent cp I. 87 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: So if you're telling me it's seven percent, I mean 88 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: I don't think we go up necessarily a lot more 89 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: than four four and a quarter, but I think it's 90 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: going to make that it makes it very hard for 91 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 1: the Fed to sound responsive to growth. Let's say, let's 92 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: sort of reframe this in terms of the CPI print 93 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 1: that we get this week on Wednesday. Is the risk 94 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: of possible upside or a downside surprise? What's the bigger 95 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: risk based on market positioning for rates? I actually think, 96 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: I mean we're looking for upside surprise because I think 97 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: even though oil prices have fallen, they didn't really fall 98 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 1: in June. But I think the markets more vulnerable to 99 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 1: a weaker surprise, meaning you know, we were sort of 100 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,119 Speaker 1: we've priced in high inflation, and so if you start 101 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 1: to see weaker inflation prints, I think these FED hikes 102 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: start to get taken out. The idea maybe the touts 103 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: pricing will go down, but I do think rates will fall. 104 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: I mean we've risen a lot, even in the front end, 105 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: so I think now with growth concerns sort of front 106 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: and center, a weaker inflation, and I should say it's 107 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: not just headline, it's core, and it's details of the core. 108 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 1: If all the decline is driven by airline fares, I 109 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: think the market should ignore it. If it's driven by 110 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: shelter service inflation, the consumer is pulling back and therefore 111 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: service inflation is slowing down. I think the market is 112 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: going to say, great, now the FED can slow down 113 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: hikes and that doesn't result in a recession. And so 114 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: I think some of the real move this, you know, 115 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: inversion of the curve or over the FED over doing 116 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: it risk. I think that starts to come off. I 117 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: think it's truly for it. I think we only see 118 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: that sign closer to your end, but but that's the risk. 119 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: Pria thanks so much for joining us. Pre A Miser 120 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 1: their managing director and global head of rate strategy at 121 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: t D Securities. So, Lisa, I saw that interview they 122 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: do with Nale Decide this morning. I thought it was 123 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: fantastic and both Priya and Sinale are have been going 124 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: long on the long end of the curve, right is 125 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: that is that consensus right now? Basically people see a 126 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: more consistent outlook over the next ten to thirty years 127 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: than they do over the next two months. That's my 128 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 1: takeaway as we look at a market that is highly 129 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: tollowed off, as we look at that market, and as 130 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: we focus on Way. Paul Sweeney is out this week 131 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: on the Big Island. Lisa just came back. Magnum p I. 132 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: The Robin's nest was demolished in two thousand eighteen. This 133 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Let's go to Darway cong right now and 134 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: talk about the commodities portion of that equation. He's a 135 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: portfolio manager and head of Commodities over at d w 136 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: S Group. Darway. Thanks so much for joining us. Um 137 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,679 Speaker 1: are we seeing commodities prices turned down? I've seen charts 138 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: recently the show. You know, not just the aggs, but 139 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 1: also the metals and the oils start to turn over, 140 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: even though we still have this natural gas story in Europe. 141 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: Uh Hi, Matt, thank you for inviting me today. Yes, 142 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: we do see quite a bit of a correction recently 143 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: across the board across all commodities and your rights across 144 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: energy complexes, cross based metal and certainly agriculture as well. 145 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: But we do think the drivers behind each part of 146 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: the sector is different, so plus energy. Clearly energy is 147 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: most directly related to people's concerns about the session and 148 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: the demand correct in there. It could be very severe 149 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: should we have a deep prolonged recession, but we do 150 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: think right now that's a little bit overdone from the 151 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: energy price correction perspective. On the natural gas side versus oil, 152 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: US natural gas price corrected much more than the global 153 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: natural gas price actually going opposite direction. Large part of 154 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: that is driven by the recent vire freeport that caused 155 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: the export to slow down, and we do think once 156 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: to export blockage, what to reverse welcome to see the 157 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 1: export pick up again, and then probably energy price, especially 158 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: metural gas price wor pick up again as well. Darway's 159 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: taking on the crude story on the oil, not the gas. 160 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: I'm wondering what the floor and what the ceiling is 161 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: for your expectations at this point, given that just a 162 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 1: few months ago you saw the potential for a hundred 163 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: and fifty five barrel and Brent and now we're seeing 164 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: recession concerns overwhelmed some of the demand issues and really 165 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: caused the clients. Um, that's a very good question of 166 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: our earlier assumption really comes from the unknown from how 167 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 1: much would the Russian oil be off market? I think 168 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: at the beginning of March there has really been very 169 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: little clarity about how deep the sension could go and 170 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: how much impact there are in terms of just ability 171 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: for for replacement for the oil. But we have found 172 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 1: since then, and I think the market recognized that is 173 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 1: the exports from Russia has been disrupted, but not to 174 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 1: the large degree that could have happened. And then even 175 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: though Europe is about to impose more ascension hasn't started yet, 176 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 1: so Europe is still buying oil from Russia. UM that 177 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: that replacement of demands from Asia has been very palpable 178 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: and was a increase buying from both India and China. 179 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: They can take up what the Europe doesn't buy. So 180 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: we're seeing less supply disruption than earlier expected. So that's 181 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: why the price has declined. What's your outlook for China 182 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: and how much does that play into the price because 183 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: they've been locked down and I know, Um, that's also 184 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: stopped a lot of driving demand. Uh trying. That's an 185 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: interesting story because in terms of the crew purchase, they 186 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: actually haven't declined very much, so the country is still 187 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 1: important crewe uh even though the demand part is impacted 188 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: directly because of the traffic constraint. Um we're seeing China 189 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: releasing some of the products of gasoline diesel, allowed that 190 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: to export out of China recently. Still very limited by 191 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: allowing that to occur, so we may see some more 192 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 1: inventory freeda from China. Chinese stories are very interesting because 193 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: it is a policy issue for China in terms of 194 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: the COVID constraints. So near term we see the same 195 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: concern on COVID, but once that would to to change 196 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: onnticipating very large spending package. We just saw one recently 197 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: with a recent a large MOM program that's worth about 198 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: billion US dollars that that if that would to kick in, 199 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: we'll want to see sharp reversal of demand from China. Darwai, 200 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Darway Kung there portfolio 201 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: manager and head of Commodities over at d w S Group. 202 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: Let's get over right now to Alex Webb Rights for 203 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion and covers tech for us, and uh, he's 204 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: going to talk about Twitter and exactly what's going on 205 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: there with Elon Musk doing his you turn. I will 206 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: tell you also, the Bloomberg Markets is brought to you 207 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 1: by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors 208 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: with the solution they need to grow a thriving business, 209 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 1: Commonwealth go where you grow. Visit Commonwealth dot com to 210 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,839 Speaker 1: learn more with that other way, Uh, let's get over 211 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: to alex web and and find out what happens next. 212 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: I think Alex to be fair, we none of us 213 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: were really expecting Elon Musk to buy Twitter. Is that 214 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: a fair statement. I mean, some people clearly were, because 215 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: the share price got one stage, got very close to 216 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: the offer price, but not for very long weeks and weeks, 217 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 1: you know, not for a little while. There's been certainly 218 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: a lot of very confusing messaging, and you know, Elon 219 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 1: Musk says that she wants to buy it and then 220 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: does something even before today, which seems to suggest very 221 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: much the opposite. It clearly was not looking good because 222 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: the the offer price was fifty four dollars twenty The 223 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 1: share price is now in the low thirties particularly given 224 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,959 Speaker 1: the latest news, some analysts forecasting that it could fall 225 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: as low as the low twenties. So um, just even 226 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 1: cutting aside any Elon Must related whimsy, from pure financial perspective, 227 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: it was very hard to see why he would want 228 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,559 Speaker 1: to do this deal. But he's already sealed it, so 229 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: there was an you know, he's tied to it in 230 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: a sense. Well that that's really where wanting to go, 231 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 1: this idea that he's trying to back out of the deal. 232 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: But the deal exists and is currently being debated in 233 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: a Delaware chord, and you have Twitter board members saying 234 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: you gotta buy this, and you've gotta buy it at 235 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 1: fifty four and twenty cents. Is this all just a 236 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: lot of drama around renegotiating price. That's hard to tell, Like, 237 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 1: you know, that's essentially I've said this is someone earlier today. 238 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: Actually that so many questions when you're going broadcasts to 239 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: do with Elon Must, they ultimately come down to what 240 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: is Elon thinking? And no one knows what Ellen is thinking. 241 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: He may still wants to do the deal, just in 242 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: a reduced form. He may not want to do the 243 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 1: deal at all. Ultimately, I think that you know it 244 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: was looking over priced. Now, if he really wanted to, 245 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: could he raise that money? Yeah, of course he could. 246 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: He could just sell down his test or stake. Does 247 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 1: he want to sell down his test stake? Almost certainly 248 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: not so. Um, it leaves him in a pickle where 249 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 1: clearly the Dela where court is going to have to 250 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 1: make some sort of decision. I think this would be 251 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: one of the if not the biggest decision of this 252 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,119 Speaker 1: nature ever carried up ever taken by the court. Previously, 253 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 1: there is evidence to suggests that they have forced these 254 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: deals through. The case law that most people tend to 255 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: site is in the meat industry twenty years ago, where 256 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: a company had agreed a deal, the market collapsed and 257 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:14,839 Speaker 1: then they tried to say, oh, well you weren't didn't 258 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: provide us ironically with full data, which it sounds very 259 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: similar to what Ellen has been saying. And they were 260 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: forced to do the deal anyway. And so, but that 261 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: was a third three point two billion dollars deal. This 262 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: is a forty four billion dollar deal. So there's a huge, 263 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: huge difference there. Um, can he not simply pay the 264 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: billion dollar breakup fee and walk away? I mean, he's 265 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: super rich, right, It would be an expensive, um sort 266 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: of mistake. I guess we would see there's a mistake. 267 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: He probably wouldn't. But can he do that? Not if 268 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: Twitter doesn't agree to it? Right? If they they? If 269 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: Twitter saying look, you you've agreed to do this deal, 270 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: you have to do this deal now. If the thing 271 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: is with a breakup fee, is that is when both 272 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: sides of the of the agreements say, oh, for whatever reason, 273 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: we code determined that this is not going to work, 274 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: for whatever the reasons might be, but irrespect to that, 275 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: you've got to pay the breakup fee. For instance, that 276 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: would be if for antitrust reasons they weren't allowed to 277 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: do the deal. You'd still have to pay the breakup 278 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: fee because you know, you've endured some damage over course 279 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: that time. But just the buyer not one to do 280 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: the deal. That is not enough to go actually the 281 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: breakup fee and be done with it. Is there anyone 282 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: standing by waiting in the wings? Any white night here, 283 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: um even maybe a beige night. Well, we've not seen 284 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: any big names reported, but there is over the years, 285 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 1: there's been any any amount of speculation, you know, big 286 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: names like Google for instance. Hard to see how that 287 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: would be doable from an antitrust perspective, given that fundamentally 288 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: YouTube is a social media channel. Um, but there are 289 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: you hear some of these names like Oracle or sales Force, 290 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: some less sexy names who you know clearly have the capital, 291 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: and you know that far hose of data's valuable, particularly 292 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: for in the advertising business, Alex. It's a bigger question, 293 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: which is at what point does it become more damaging 294 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: for Twitter to pursue and try to hold elon musk 295 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: price tag versus cutting their losses, cutting a deal with him, 296 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: letting him out, and trying to move on. And you 297 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: could say that that pass that point has long since passed. 298 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: They have clearly endured a lot of damage over the 299 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: past few months and have in a certain amount of stasis, 300 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: except I think clarity is something the shareholders almost certainly want. 301 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: But if there's no path to moving the share price 302 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: from the twenties and thirties to the fifties again, then 303 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: this is the best deal for shareholders, right, And so 304 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: that's why potentially that's why they're trying to fight for it. 305 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: From the Tesla side, how concerning is it and how 306 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: much do you start to hear some pushback about a 307 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: CEO who can joke about an acquisition, who can make 308 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: comments and make agreements without thinking them through, perhaps, or 309 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: you know, just on a whim and try to backpedal 310 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: just as quickly. I mean, has it had any material 311 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 1: effect on the nuts and bolts of his business? Tesla 312 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 1: shares are down. I think they're down something like, if 313 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,360 Speaker 1: I recall correctly, something like twelve percent since this this 314 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: since the Twitter deal was announced. Now, whether there's a 315 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: correlation between the two or whether that's the cause entirely, 316 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: it is hard to say. It also suggests that all 317 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: investment in Tesla is rational, which you could say isn't 318 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: necessarily the case as well, when you look at some 319 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:27,479 Speaker 1: of the earnings fundamentals, it is clearly or has clearly 320 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: been a distraction. But Elon runs a whole bunch of 321 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 1: companies and they seem to distract from each other, and 322 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: yet Tesla share prices where it is, so, you know, 323 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: I think that the bigger risk would have been perhaps 324 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: relationship with China, stuff like that. Is that, but that's 325 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: probably more of a relation of risk for Twitter. I mean, 326 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: there are so many different moving parts here that it's 327 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: hard to kind of pin anyone down and saying that's 328 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: been detrimental to this. Yes, there's so many moving parts 329 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: to everything I'm finding this morning. Um. In terms of 330 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: the deal, though, one thing I was thinking as I 331 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: read through this over the weekend and Alex is that 332 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: his friends he's got on board must be annoyed. His 333 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,439 Speaker 1: bankers must think, God, this guy waste so much of 334 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: our time. His lawyers even must. I'm sure they're happy 335 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: about the billing, but just unbelievable how much business this 336 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,959 Speaker 1: guy generates. Is it not hurtful to his relationships? I mean, 337 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 1: if you're a lawyer, you're probably pretty happy, as you say, yeah, 338 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: because your generates all billable hours. If your banker is 339 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: a bit more complicated. It also depends where you are 340 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: in the value chain. If you committed equity, then perhaps 341 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 1: you're a little bit perturbed, although equally, did you want 342 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 1: to be buying in at that price given the direction 343 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: of travel. If you can get out of that, you 344 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: might be quite happy. From the debt perspective, of course, 345 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: the debt situation now, if there was a bridge, if 346 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: there was bridging financing in there, and then all of 347 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 1: a sudden you've got to find new financing. In the 348 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: current climate, it would have been a significantly different ask 349 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: because interest rates are so much higher. So again I'm 350 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: sorry to be, you know, a little too equivocate a 351 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: little bit, but it isn't a clear picture that everybody 352 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 1: will be angry at him. I think clearly if you 353 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: are Twitter, back to Lisa's original question that you know 354 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: good Twitter wanted to get out of this. I'm sure 355 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 1: Twitter is annoyed because they he's kind of come in 356 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: throwing a metaphorical grenade into the business which has proven 357 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,399 Speaker 1: a distraction for however many months in his life, to 358 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 1: prove a distraction for another few months. So those are 359 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: the people I think are most put out right. Although 360 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: you wonder how many employees really wanted to work for 361 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: Elon Musk and I'll leave that a question. Alex Web, 362 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Alex Web their Bloomberg 363 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 1: opinion calumnists who covers tech for us. Talking to us 364 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: about the Elon Musk Twitter deal, I noticed everyone cares. 365 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: Even people who are normally covering rates have commented on 366 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: Twitter today shade this is Bloomberg. Let's bring in Burt 367 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: White to talk about this and how it affects his 368 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 1: market outlook, his chief strategy officer at the Carson Group 369 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 1: and bert Um, you know, these prices are real. Um. 370 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: The Fed seems pretty determined to break the back of inflation. 371 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: And can we take them at their word that they're 372 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: gonna do whatever it takes and offer clear and effective 373 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 1: communication along the way. Yeah, I think you can. And 374 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: I think I think what you're beginning to get a 375 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,719 Speaker 1: sense of is that, Um, you know what, what's causing 376 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: this inflation is a bit demand, but it's released the 377 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: supply side. And so I think what the Feds beginning 378 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: to realize is what's just as important as their rate 379 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: rising is their narrative. Right. They've got to talk pretty tough. 380 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: They've got to redefine what hawk is is. I think 381 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,159 Speaker 1: they are doing that as best they can, and that 382 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 1: certainly was in the minutes, and I think they're going 383 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: to continue to do that because at the end of 384 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: the day, Um, you can raise rates all you want, um, 385 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 1: but the demand side is not as big an issue. 386 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 1: It's a supply side. So the Feds just buying time 387 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: here with this tough talk until the supply chains begin 388 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 1: to loosen up a bit, which we're starting to see happen. 389 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 1: It sounds like you doubt the commitment to raising rates 390 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: to the degree that a lot of people in the 391 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: market currently are pricing in. Is that right? Yeah? I 392 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: think I think a lot of this is talk. You know. 393 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: The good news is that that the markets come down 394 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 1: a little bit, a feed has come up a little bit, 395 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: which is really what has got the market a little 396 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 1: bit more comfortable. They were in completely different camps set 397 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: in left field in La La Land, the market much 398 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: more on Hawkish Land, and those two things have come 399 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: together a bit um. But I do believe that the 400 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 1: Fed wants to take a couple of really big swings 401 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: at the ball um and and raise seventy five. They 402 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 1: did that. They'll raise seventy five again. But then I 403 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 1: think that they're gonna be a lot more moderate than 404 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: what I think that people think they will be. Um, 405 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 1: at least the market is thinking they will be, because 406 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: I think they recognize that all they can really do 407 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,880 Speaker 1: is reduced demand, which sends us to a recession. That's 408 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,959 Speaker 1: all they can do, and so they're willing to do 409 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: that a bit, but they don't want to take that 410 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: too far. They recognize what really is going to get 411 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: us on the other end of this is the supply 412 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: side beginning to open up. So how much pain do 413 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: you think they're willing to let us take? I mean, 414 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: so far, we really haven't seen much in terms of, 415 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: you know, equity indexes, we still haven't come down to 416 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: pre COVID levels, and um in terms of unemployment, we're 417 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: still an incredibly low number. Right, What do you think 418 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: is gonna set them off to go together direction? Yeah, well, 419 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: you know, you're exactly right. They have a lot of 420 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: room to operate. And and remember the FED doesn't have 421 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: a scalpel. The set has baseball bats, and so they 422 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,719 Speaker 1: recognize that. So they have a blunt instrument. And so 423 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: if they were trying to lower inflation from let's just 424 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 1: pretend five to two, that'd be pretty tough because you 425 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: need a scalpel to do that. But but moving from 426 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 1: eight percent to two percent, have a lot of room. 427 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: And so that's why I think that this soft landing 428 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,439 Speaker 1: is possible. So I think they're willing, just like they 429 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 1: showed in some of the dot plots, They're willing to 430 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 1: see employment begin to slow down and moderate. They're willing 431 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: to see the unemployment rate take back up a bit UM, 432 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: call that a few a few, you know, maybe a 433 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 1: half a percentage point or so. I think they're willing 434 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: to see demand come down just a little bit because 435 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 1: that's going to take some of the pressure off of 436 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: what really is going to impact this, and that is 437 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 1: a supply chain and so UM. I do think they're 438 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: they're mindful of that, but their narrative has to be tough. 439 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: And that's really what's really cut out of this is. UH, 440 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: they've come out with a really tough sort of stance, 441 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: and I think that they're trying to just buy time 442 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: that they'll do whatever it takes, UM, but they don't 443 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 1: have the tools to fix it. They're just buying time 444 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 1: until those uh, those real fixes on the supply side 445 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 1: come through. Bert, my spidy sense gets the feeling that 446 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: maybe your long stocks is that right? You know, UM, 447 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: we're neutral rate right now, UM, but we want to 448 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: start buying UM and and and listen, midterm election years 449 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: are always tough. You know, this is historically go back 450 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: the nineteen fifty mid term election years have been the 451 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: hardest of the three year presidential cycle, and the quarters 452 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 1: win right now are almost always tough. UM. What we 453 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 1: usually see historically is around right before the midterm elections. 454 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: That is typically the time UM to begin to see 455 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: the market rally. We think that's going to happen again 456 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 1: this time. So I think we're in for some you know, 457 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 1: foltle up and down. Think about a decision box that 458 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: this plus or minus you know, five or six percent. 459 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, we think that 460 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: that stocks move higher before the you know, by the 461 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: end of the year, substantially higher by the end of 462 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 1: the year, and a lot of that's going to happen 463 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: in the latter parts of this year. Bert, thanks so 464 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Burt White, they're um talking to 465 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,959 Speaker 1: us from the Carson Group, where he is chief strategy Officer. 466 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Mark Kids podcasts. You 467 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,720 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or 468 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,719 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on 469 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 1: Twitter at Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on 470 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can always 471 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.