1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,960 Speaker 1: Lynn, I have so much to talk to you about. 2 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 1: There's so much going on in the world, and I 3 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: have some interesting things that I want to take us into. 4 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 1: But anyway, thanks for joining me today. 5 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 2: Happy to be here, Thanks for having me again. 6 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, So, a lot of stuff going on in the world, 7 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: and you've been tweeting about a lot of different things, 8 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: and I think you've been sort of recognized in the 9 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: industry as thinking a little bit differently about things. It's 10 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: probably your engineering background that you have. But I want 11 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: to start on some big macro topics and then we'll 12 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: take this down into a couple of different rabbit holes 13 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: that people maybe haven't really heard us discussed before. But 14 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: let's sort of start with like this big broad macro picture. 15 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: I like to think of things in politics, finance, and 16 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: technology and really where these three things converge because it 17 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: gives better context. So I want to get into some 18 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: of those topics, more of the technology stuff. But if 19 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: we start with just like this macro picture. I've seen 20 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: you talking about quite a bit how we're sort of 21 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: going into this period of fiscal dominance, and so I 22 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: recently did a video talking about how really the central 23 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: bank interaction in the market have really changed since two 24 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: thousand and eight. They've been much more involved and really 25 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: been more proactive instead of as reactive as they were. 26 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: And so we can talk about this fiscal dominance, but 27 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 1: what I kind of want to talk about is a 28 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,199 Speaker 1: lot of assumptions that it seems like we've had about 29 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: the markets have really been challenged in the last year 30 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: or two since the Fed's gone on this tightening cycle, 31 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: and so a lot of things maybe biases or just 32 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 1: historical assumptions that people make, such as well, when the 33 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: risk free rate goes up, the stocks have to be 34 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: repriced down, but they haven't been. When rates, when mortgage 35 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: rates go up so high, home prices have to come down, 36 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: but they haven't been. So it seems like a lot 37 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: of assumptions have been challenged here, and so I guess 38 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: the bigger question is if we're in this period where 39 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: the FED is fiscal dominance, they're really driving markets, we're 40 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: seeing assumptions being challenged, then the big challenges do the 41 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: markets have to crash? 42 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: So it's a good question. My base case has been 43 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 2: range bound for a lot of different assets, which which 44 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: points towards not very good real returns over say a 45 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 2: five plus year period, but not necessarily expecting a crash either. 46 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: So I've neither been a kind of a you know, 47 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 2: melts up bowl or a deflationary crash bear. I've been 48 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: more in that range bound camp, which so far has 49 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 2: been working out both in the housing market in aggregate 50 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 2: and the stock market in aggregate. Obviously, there are very 51 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: different industries that can be up or down, there are 52 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 2: very different geographies that can be up or down. But 53 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 2: overall that's kind of the general path we've been on. 54 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 2: And if we look back historically, I kind of classify 55 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 2: the long term debt cycle Ray Dalio's work, for example, 56 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 2: and then additional work I put into it to kind 57 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 2: of really flesh out and explore this concept. I know 58 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 2: you've covered it quite a bit as well. It's basically 59 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,519 Speaker 2: the observation that you go through a number of normal 60 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 2: business cycles, but you build up instability in the system 61 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 2: a couple of different ways, including on the public debt side. 62 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 2: And so if we characterize the past forty years, we 63 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: had ever rising public debts, so whenever we had a recession, 64 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 2: we would have you know, industries get cut that allows 65 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 2: higher debt levels and you get you know, lower lows 66 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 2: and lower highs in indust rates and higher highs and 67 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 2: higher lows in both private sector and public sector debts 68 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 2: is a percentage of GDP and that coincided with basically 69 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 2: the peace dividend, the opening up of the world. You know, 70 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 2: China opened up to the world in the nineteen eighties, 71 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 2: Soviet Union fell in the early nineties, and so we 72 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 2: kind of entered this more connected world for a period 73 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: of time, and we basically brought Western capital together with 74 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 2: Eastern labor and resources, and that was a very kind 75 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 2: of productive, disinflationary time. Some people were hurt by it, 76 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: but a lot of people were helped by it, and 77 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 2: that's kind of been the era we've been and that 78 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: allowed for lower indust rates and when you look at 79 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 2: the government expenditure, if you have hired higher debt to 80 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 2: GDP but lower and lower indust rates, your overall interest 81 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: expense remains manageable. And when we had the global financial crisis, 82 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: a lot of things changed there. We had a bank recapitalization, 83 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 2: We hit the peak in terms of private debt relative 84 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 2: the GDP, but we push a lot of that debt 85 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: onto the public sector in multiple countries, especially the United States, 86 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 2: and so when we look back at prior long term 87 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: debt cycles, they do tend to come in a one 88 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,160 Speaker 2: two punt. First you have the private debt bubble kind 89 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 2: of break apart, which is disinflationary. But then the second 90 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 2: stage is when all that gets pushed up to the 91 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: public sector and then that becomes more of an inflationary 92 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: type of crisis. So kind of ever since the past 93 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 2: call it three four years, we've been in that second 94 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 2: phase of the bubble, and so I think that's one 95 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: of the best ways to look at it from a 96 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 2: historical lens. But then of course I have to think, okay, 97 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 2: what is different now in terms of culture, in terms 98 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 2: of technology, in terms of just the way the world looks, 99 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 2: you know, what is different? Even though that's a useful baseline, 100 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: and it's you know, these types of periods are all weird, 101 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 2: and so there's going to be challenging things to navigate 102 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 2: that you didn't necessarily expect, which is why it's useful 103 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 2: to have a framework, but to also be very flexible 104 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 2: with your thinking to see what sort of curveballs might 105 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 2: or may not come, and then you know, adjust that 106 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:17,840 Speaker 2: over time based on what's happening. 107 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: So then if to recap, so your base case isn't 108 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: a big crash, it's sort of just chopping along sideways. 109 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: This crab market, if you will, I think is kind 110 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 1: of what you said two very similar. You've been talking 111 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: about a lot, and I think it's very helpful to 112 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: kind of look at sort of what we saw in 113 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: the thirties and forties as a better sort of proxy 114 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 1: or representation of what we're where we're at today as 115 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: opposed to like the seventies era. However, what you're saying 116 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: is that we need to remain flexible. So it's good 117 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: to have some sort of like models that we can 118 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: view the world through, but be flexible because who knows 119 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 1: right if I frame that up right? 120 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, And as an example, you know, back in early 121 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, when it became clear that the FED 122 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: was going to be quite hawkish, that was you know, 123 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 2: my expectation was we'd have a recession by kind of 124 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 2: later in the year and that it'd be tough to 125 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,039 Speaker 2: get in straights over three percent before you'd have kind 126 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 2: of those types of problems. And for the most of 127 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two that was correct. We had slowing economic indicators. 128 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 2: We had two quarters of negative real GDP growth, even 129 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 2: though they weren't technically a recession because they didn't have 130 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 2: like an unemployment spike and stuff. But we had a 131 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: period of softness as the price has had a pretty 132 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: bad time across the board. But then by early twenty 133 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 2: twenty three, I started to see signs that it was 134 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 2: playing out differently that basically the fiscal deficits, ironically from 135 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: part of that, the monetary tightening, so the higher interest 136 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 2: expense from the federal deficits were starting to actually kind 137 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 2: of balance themselves out. They were becoming kind of inflationary 138 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: and stimulatory. And then when you had the kind of 139 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 2: the minibanking crisis and the FEDS willingness to reinject some 140 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 2: liquidity in there to stop contagion, these things really kind 141 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 2: of added up to a shift in how I viewed things. 142 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 2: So you know, that's that's an example being flexible, where 143 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 2: you have a view it starts playing out, but then 144 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 2: after a certain point it kind of starts being a 145 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: little different. It's almost like if you're very tired and 146 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 2: you stay up all night and you just kind of 147 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,679 Speaker 2: force yourself through it. Eventually you almost get like another 148 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: burst of being awake. Again right, that that's and that's 149 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 2: kind of what we saw in markets where they got 150 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 2: so tight on the on the fiscal side and the 151 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 2: and the monetary side, they kind of went past the 152 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 2: looking glass towards actually being so much stimulatory. Because a 153 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 2: lot of the private sector debt is low and fixed rate, 154 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: especially in the in the household sector and in the 155 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 2: investment grade corporate sector, so those industries have held up 156 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 2: pretty well, whereas a lot of the US federal debt 157 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 2: is short term and so that's been refinanced at at 158 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 2: much higher rates. And so this the we have like 159 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 2: two very powerful competing forces here. One is that the 160 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 2: industrates are putting downward pressure on a number of industrate 161 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 2: sensitive industries, you know, commercial real estate and small businesses 162 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 2: and junk rated companies and the like. But the other hand, 163 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 2: that interest expense is just completely blowing out the deficit, 164 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 2: which is on its own, and it's a stimulatory inflationary force. 165 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: And in the past year so they've been roughly balanced. 166 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think maybe it was Joseph Waang or somebody 167 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: said this was something like I'm so bearish on bullish 168 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: kind of a thing, right, So it's like things are 169 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: so bad. It's actually sort of bullish. It's stimulatory, to 170 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 1: your point. And so we're starting to see more and 171 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: more of the spending being from the government and this 172 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: deficit spending, and so you've talked about extensively, how as 173 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: things continue to get worse, that deficit spending goes up, 174 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: and that's really the sort of main driver of a 175 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: lot of this inflation that we have. I guess it 176 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: is sort of the point that you're sort of making. 177 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: Now you have what I was kind of saying earlier 178 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 1: in the intro sort of like I charted out sort 179 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,719 Speaker 1: of the change in central bank policy sort of from 180 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight and so like, for example, in 181 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: two thousand and six, the housing market had started to crash. 182 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: The housing starts went down by twenty six percent, but 183 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: yet it took thirty months before the Fed did anything 184 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: in the markets. From the time bear Stearns went bankrupt, 185 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: it was seven months before they even got a package. 186 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: It was one hundred billion dollars or one hundred million 187 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: dollars that they had ready to go or no, it's sorry, 188 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars. But in twenty twenty three, when 189 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: the banks went bankrupt, it was six days, so we 190 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: kind of see the difference. In twenty twenty, the FED 191 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: set up I think it was thirteen different special funding facilities, 192 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: three four letter agencies, and again you know, the BTFP 193 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: was set up in like six days. So it shows 194 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: at least it looks like to me that they're much 195 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: more proactive now they've gone around and set up all 196 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: these swap lines, not just with friendly countries, but now 197 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: even you know what maybe Tier two central banks, et cetera. 198 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: So it seems like their fingers on the trigger and 199 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: they're ready to go. And so, you know, if you 200 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: understand that we're in this debt based monetary system and 201 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: the debt is the asset, it's the collateral on more debt, 202 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,959 Speaker 1: they have to keep that system from unraveling. But then 203 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: you might have somebody like a Jeff Snyder who says, well, 204 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: but really the Fed has no control because it's really 205 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: the euro dollar market overall. So are they able to 206 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: sort of have this dominance where they can continue to 207 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: keep these things elevated with these special funding facilities and 208 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: these swap lines and the fiscal side can continue to 209 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: spend or are we sort of like in this period 210 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: where maybe there's this out of control beasts that we 211 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: can't control. 212 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 2: So there's been this narrative for several years that they 213 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 2: can't create inflation, that the markets are too deflationary to 214 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: them to do it. And I wrote an article back 215 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen where I said, are bonds in a 216 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: bubble or is this a new normal? And the conclusion 217 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 2: of the article was it is a bubble, and I 218 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 2: talked about how I was like, look, a lot of 219 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 2: things look disinflationary, but if in the next downturn, central banks, 220 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: you know, they can completely change the rules and they 221 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 2: can work with physical authorities and just have massive monetized 222 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 2: physical deficits. There's almost eerie. You know, I didn't talk 223 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 2: about a pandemic in that article, but it's almost eerie 224 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 2: what happened less than a year after that article came out. 225 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 2: It was just completely, you know, completely the rules were changed. 226 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 2: And that's what we've seen. And the reason I had 227 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: that view is because that's when you get towards a 228 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 2: sovereign debt kind of cycle nearing its its sort of completion, 229 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 2: and a completion can take a decade. It doesn't mean 230 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 2: a completion like this six months. I mean like this era, 231 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 2: the rules change, the cycles get tighter. Similarly, during March 232 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, I wrote an article called why this isn't 233 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: like the Great Depression, And that was like just an 234 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 2: early sign of seeing somebody stimulus. And so my view is, no, no, 235 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 2: this is not going to be disinflationary. This is likely 236 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 2: going to be inflationary because the cavalies response time is quicker, 237 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 2: and because it's more like the forties, not like the thirties. 238 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 2: So I would consider the two thousand and eight crisis 239 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 2: to be very similar to the nineteen twenty nine crisis. 240 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 2: That was all the hallmarks of a private debt bubble unwinding. 241 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 2: But I think we're past that now. I think now 242 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 2: we're towards the sovereign debt bubble. And the closer you 243 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: get to the sovereign, the quicker the trigger finger is 244 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 2: to come in with any sort of thing, because it 245 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 2: starts to potentially make the treasure market get illiquid. So 246 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 2: if you looked last year during the twenty twenty two 247 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 2: guilt market blow up, right, so it's September of last year, 248 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 2: the UK guilt market blew up and the Bank of 249 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 2: England had to come in and do emergency QE for 250 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 2: a number of weeks, even though they had ten percent 251 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 2: inflation at the time, and they had to cancel a 252 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,599 Speaker 2: speech about bounce sheet reduction they were going to have 253 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 2: the next day, because you literally had a vicious cycle 254 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 2: of more bond selling and at the same time, the 255 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 2: US treasure market was like one step behind. It was 256 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 2: like very I liquid bond auctions were not going well. 257 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 2: It was looking very wildly and he started to see 258 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 2: the treasury offset the Fed, so you know, the Fed 259 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 2: was still being somewhat tight. The treasure started drawing down 260 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,959 Speaker 2: it's treasurey generally count and taking other measures. That was 261 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 2: kind of the part of the reversal. So basically my 262 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,199 Speaker 2: view is that when push comes a shove, and when 263 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 2: it gets closer to the sovereign, inflationary forces can always 264 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 2: be used to override the various debt driven disinflationary driven 265 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 2: forces in the economy, and so I will generally always 266 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 2: air towards that inflationary outcome while risk managing it along 267 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: the way and basically having a realistic timeframe and diversification. 268 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, you know, something that I was thinking about 269 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: in regards to that too, is like sure, so maybe 270 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 1: the FED doesn't have total control, but sure to your point, 271 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: the fiscal the government could do that spending or increase that, 272 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: and so a couple things. So, like you mentioned some 273 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:45,079 Speaker 1: of these things that are more interest rate sensitive, sort 274 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: of like the commercial real estate market, specifically the mortgage 275 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: bond market in the real estate sector is two point 276 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: nine trillion dollars of debt that could potentially blow up, 277 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 1: and people look at that as like this big you know, 278 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: maybe not a black swan but a gray squand that 279 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: could sing things. But like the FED could just take 280 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: all that under their books. They've done that before, Like 281 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: why wouldn't they. So when you go through a lot 282 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: of these things, at least for me, I'm like, okay, 283 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 1: sure that's bad, but like we've seen before that they 284 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: could just take that on their books and just sort 285 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: of put that over on the side. So when you 286 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: start look at these things. Also we saw I think 287 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: some of the banks in Europe were guaranteeing banks loans, 288 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: So banks don't want to loan money out because they're 289 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: afraid that you know, the market's you know, shaky, there's 290 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: a recession there, so the banks don't want to loan 291 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: the money out, but the government just says, hey, we'll 292 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: just backstop your loans like go ahead, and so then 293 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: the banks well of course will loan if there's no risk. 294 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: So there's lots of things. I guess when I look 295 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: at some of these people that I've been studying for 296 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: a long time, like Harry Dent Junior, I've probably read 297 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: five of his books. I love his research. I think 298 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: his research is correct. But trying to continue to time 299 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 1: when this crash is going to happen is obviously failed 300 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: for him, and I think a lot of it is 301 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: we just continue to fail. How many more tricks they 302 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: have up their sleeve? Would you say that. 303 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 2: When they change they unit up account, it's like changing 304 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 2: the rule. It's a kobyashi maru, right, You just change 305 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 2: the rules of the test is basically what they do. 306 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: And so you know, a country that controls its own 307 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 2: unit of account is when a push comes to shove, 308 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: they print. And I'd be careful that doesn't mean fully 309 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 2: risk on because for example, you know the FED right 310 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 2: now under Drone Pale, his legacy is on the line. 311 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 2: He is serious about tightening and it's one of those 312 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: things where he doesn't you know, if the stock market 313 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 2: drops twenty percent. He's not going to care if credit 314 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 2: markets have problems, if there's a big cycle of commercial 315 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 2: real estate bankruptcy, he's not going to care. If anything, 316 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 2: they're good that he that thinks he'd probably like to 317 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 2: see the markets where they jump in quickly. Are bank 318 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 2: contagion anything adjacent to that, like ripo spikes like they 319 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 2: did in twenty nineteen, or the tragy market itself, right, 320 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 2: those are those are the cores of the system that 321 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: I You know that they're very unlikely to let struggle 322 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 2: for long periods of time, whereas almost anything else you 323 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 2: do it be quite careful of. That's part of why 324 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 2: I don't expect and for a while I have not 325 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 2: expected good stock or or broad real estate returns, especially 326 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: on a real basis. You know, when you're comparing that 327 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 2: to CPI, or when you're comparing that's what you can 328 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: get on a T bill and things like that. The 329 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 2: the overall risk of those markets remains pretty high. But 330 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 2: you know, another way of looking at as you mentioned 331 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 2: two point nine trillion in debt, but it's like we 332 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 2: have one point seven trillion annual physical deficits, right, It's 333 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 2: like there's a fire hose of depthits going to the market. 334 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: So you can have trillion dollar bankruptcies that are kind 335 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 2: of offset by trillion dollars just ongoing physcal injections. And 336 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 2: so even if the FED doesn't come to the rescue there, 337 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 2: it's just that one industry is suffering, you know, arguably 338 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: right sizing, I mean, commercial real estate does have to 339 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 2: go through a repurposing, and you know it's a change 340 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 2: because we've changed, our technologies changed, our locations have changed. 341 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 2: But the other hand, you know, I don't think you're 342 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 2: gonna see like restaurants sales go bust because the people 343 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 2: that go to restaurants a lot of them are on 344 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: the receiving side of these very large physical deficits. And 345 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 2: so it's a very kind of industry by industry market 346 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 2: and I think the overall aggregate is this is kind 347 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 2: of stagflationary, range bound type of thing where it's a 348 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 2: very some people feel like what recession. I don't see recession, 349 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 2: and other people are racking up credit card debt to 350 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: get by because for them it already is a recession. 351 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 2: And it's just very industry specific, individual specific, and the 352 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 2: overall range is that kind of murky sideways action. 353 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, in two thousand and eight, I was in southern 354 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: California developing real estate. Orange Scanty, California was like the 355 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: epicenter of the mortgage industry, and we got hit really, 356 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: really hard. But there was plenty of other industries that 357 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: didn't really feel that recession as much, Right, So that's 358 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: sort of an example. And to your point about the restaurants, 359 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: you know, we also have, like, for example, the baby 360 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: boomers sitting on tens of trillions of dollars worth of 361 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 1: wealth and they're like they're gonna die, so like I 362 00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: might as just go to spend my money. So they're 363 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: not really a sense of tip to those things. And 364 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,199 Speaker 1: so there's a lot of plays here, or a lot 365 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: of things in play. I guess to kind of wrap 366 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 1: this up back to so one, the market doesn't have 367 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 1: to crash. It doesn't have to Potentially the maybe shorter term, 368 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: maybe the next twelve months, is more uncertain. It seems 369 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: to me the longer term is more certain. Because of 370 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: the debt based montary system that we have, we need 371 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: more inflation and most likely asset prices will be higher 372 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 1: over the next three to five years. Maybe we don't know, 373 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: the next six to twelve months. That's sort of my 374 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: base case. Would you agree with that or no? 375 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, generally, and I think, you know, crash, it helps 376 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 2: to define it specifically, right, So I mean the fact 377 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 2: that we had like a twenty percent draw down and 378 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 2: then a partial retrace and then we're having like another 379 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,719 Speaker 2: draw down, now you know that's to be expected. I mean, 380 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 2: you could have a ten to twenty percent move with 381 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 2: not much of a problem, especially over a multi month 382 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 2: period or over the course for you. 383 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: And you might even consider that a healthy pullback after 384 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: the run. 385 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 2: That I wouldn't consider that a crash. I think, I 386 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 2: think a useful models to look at emerging markets when 387 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 2: they go through recessions or just in general, when they're 388 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 2: kind of in a malaise. Often the stock market's not 389 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 2: going down big in nominal currency terms. It's kind of 390 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 2: it's doing bad in dollar terms, but it's usually doing 391 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 2: fine in nominal local currency terms. And I think that 392 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 2: basically when when developed countries go through sovereign debt crises 393 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 2: or things like we're having now, it's basically like a 394 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 2: developed market with emerging market characteristics. And so either, like 395 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 2: you know, I use the nineteen forties analog a lot, 396 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 2: but potentially more accessible analog for people. Just look at 397 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 2: emerging markets, you know, not I'm not saying the absolute 398 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 2: basket case ones, but just like the standard quintessential merging market, 399 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 2: what do their recessions look like? What are their stock 400 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 2: markets doing in nominal terms versus say, compared to dollars 401 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 2: or gold or whatever. And I think that there's there's 402 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 2: some comparisons there that are instructive. So I would expect 403 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 2: a range bound and that range could be pretty big 404 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 2: and then not great real returns probably, you know, we've 405 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 2: had negative real returns since you know, like early twenty 406 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 2: twenty one, mid twenty twenty one, and I would expect 407 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,399 Speaker 2: that to continue for a number of years because I 408 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 2: think that some of the more defensive assets like literally 409 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 2: you know, T bills, tips, you know that at their 410 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 2: positive real rates are interesting. Now I prefer gold and bitcoin, 411 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 2: I you know, I think there's some emerging markets that 412 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 2: are attractive if you choose them selectively. There are a 413 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 2: mix of assets out there that are interesting, but I 414 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 2: think the ones that have been expensive and crowded into 415 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 2: are just unlikely to do good returns, and that you know, 416 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 2: things can correct in price, or they can correct in time. 417 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 2: They can just be in a arrange for a long time, 418 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 2: and that is eventually a correction. 419 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: Right now, and we have to sort of zoom out 420 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: of just the macro and look at the bigger picture 421 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 1: to sort of understand things as well. And so now 422 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: it seems like when things, when all things fail, high inflation, whatever, 423 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 1: like let's just go to war, and here we are. 424 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: Janet Ellen comes out and says we can fight two wars, 425 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: we might have a third war shaping up China, sending 426 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 1: warships over to the Middle East as well. Right now 427 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: in light of that, in light of looks like potential 428 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 1: massive military spending is in the cards for us in 429 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 1: the near future, at least probably for the next year. 430 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 1: How does that change things? I mean, that's going to 431 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: be massive inflation or does that give them a cover 432 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,919 Speaker 1: potentially a cover of letting things run hot, getting that 433 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 1: inflation they need to get that GDP up to bring 434 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: the debt to GDP down or how do you see 435 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 1: that plane out? 436 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it potentially does. And a common thing 437 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 2: you see during the sovereign debt crisis is financial oppression. 438 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: So various ways to kind of keep financing to the 439 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 2: government affordable while trying to restrict private sector lending too 440 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: much and trying to restrict private sector capital flow. So 441 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 2: you know, basically various capital controls. That was a place 442 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 2: across the developed world in the nineteen forties. And when 443 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 2: you see emerging markets like today there are multiple merging 444 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 2: markets that all various frictions on purpose for people that 445 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 2: want to get their capital elsewhere. They basically add various 446 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 2: hurdles to them. And so that's that's something we should expect, 447 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: and but part of that has to be done with narrative, right. 448 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 2: It's like, you know, in order to be successful, they 449 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 2: have to have something your plausibility with it, which gets 450 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 2: a lot of the public on board. And so you know, 451 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 2: right now we've seen, for example, there's been a lot 452 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 2: of misinformation in the in the financial media around how 453 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 2: much terrorists receive financing from crypto right. That's that's been 454 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 2: a big thing, and it's been it's been pretty soundly debunked. 455 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: Now even the sources that some of those media articles 456 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:40,199 Speaker 2: used themselves said no, no, this is completely misconstrued. The 457 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 2: numbers like less than one percent of what you said 458 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 2: it was most of the financing comes from traditional existing 459 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 2: financial rails. This is like a rounding error. But that 460 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 2: doesn't change the fact that there are certain senators and 461 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,119 Speaker 2: certain politicians that are like, look, look, we have to 462 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 2: go after this. Now, this, this crypto is all terrorist financing. 463 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 2: And if you can drill that enough people's heads, people 464 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 2: get scared. They think, yeah, no, we have to block this. 465 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 2: Like it's just people are not very quantitative on average, 466 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,479 Speaker 2: and politicians will use that and just shape the narrative 467 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,400 Speaker 2: over and over again. And so I think that that's 468 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,439 Speaker 2: an ongoing thing now. Luckily, the combination of social media 469 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 2: and things like bitcoin or stable coins do allow for 470 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 2: more peer to peer transfer information and value, which makes 471 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 2: it a lot harder for them to do the types 472 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 2: of financial oppression that they've done in prior cycles. But 473 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 2: that's not guaranteed. That's something that has to be protected. 474 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 2: Fault for people educated on lies kind of called out 475 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 2: a well evidenced and I think that that's kind of there. Basically, 476 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 2: there is a kind of cultural battle behind the scenes. 477 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 2: And the reason I talked about that is because having 478 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 2: studied the nineteen forties a lot and studying emerging markets today, 479 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:58,120 Speaker 2: this is actually a very common occurrence during these cycles 480 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 2: to use kind of these temporary crisses for permanent restrictions 481 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 2: or to kind of shift narratives around to help get 482 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 2: people more on board with the financial oppression that they 483 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 2: kind of mathematically get stuck into. 484 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's yeah, don't let a crisis go 485 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,359 Speaker 1: away sort of sort of thing. And so it wasn't 486 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 1: just the forties. We continue to see that being in 487 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 1: the playbook, but sort of going back to what you're 488 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 1: talking about, this financial repression, and so in order to 489 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: get the debt to GDP down, they can either bring 490 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: the debt down unrealistic or get the GDP up. So 491 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: there's this financial repression where you let inflation run really hot. 492 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: So GDP goes up because of the inflation. But the 493 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 1: problem is then they have to kind of restrict the 494 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: capital within that and so it's not politically pattable at 495 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 1: this point to let inflation run hot. But if they 496 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,360 Speaker 1: could blame it on a war, Oh, it's Putin's fault, 497 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: it's Israel, it's just Homasice fault, whatever it may be, 498 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 1: then we could potentially get that inflation that they want, 499 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: that they need and blame it on the war. That's 500 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: the narrative part that you're talking about. 501 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, the same exactly. Yeah, they can't just say, look, 502 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: our decade of you know, kind of just broad based 503 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 2: spending and tax policies have contributed to a destabilizing situation, 504 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 2: and therefore it's going to just kind of inflate on 505 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 2: its own. They definitely need an external reason, right, and 506 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 2: so that anything that they can use, they're they're willing 507 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,120 Speaker 2: to jump on. And you know, in the prior kind 508 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 2: of a couple of years, I think the Federal Reserve 509 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 2: intended to be slower to raise rates and respond to 510 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 2: the inflation. They kind of signed that pretty strongly, but 511 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 2: the public reaction to that inflation was pretty you know, negative, 512 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 2: pretty quickly, and so they change course pretty quickly, and 513 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 2: so that was not enough cover for them to do 514 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,679 Speaker 2: what they want to do. But potentially a war is 515 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 2: and so I think that, you know, we'll see how 516 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,880 Speaker 2: this plays out. But basically, the more that they can 517 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 2: blame inflation on an external source and then therefore also 518 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 2: blame the need for capital controls and things like that 519 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 2: on an external source, and to drive up the fear 520 00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 2: of security, you know, that's that's really what kind of 521 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 2: captures a lot of people. 522 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: So war is like this perfect double whammy so to speak. 523 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: Not only can they get an excuse to get inflation up, 524 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 1: but they also get an excuse to get capital controls 525 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,800 Speaker 1: in place at the same time, which they need both, 526 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,239 Speaker 1: and yeah, that's perfect. You put out a tweet and 527 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: you said technology changes how humans have to interact with things, 528 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: and unfortunately it takes time and experience. And you were 529 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: talking about the fall of publisher media gatekeepers is good, 530 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: but it means we have to pick our media if 531 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 1: we don't want to be uninformed. And then you also 532 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: said the fall of money security gatekeepers also mean we 533 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 1: have to pick our money. So it's technology, as I 534 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: say the same thing. It always changes the way the 535 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: world works because of how we communicate and we organize, 536 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 1: changes the way we organize as well. And so sort 537 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 1: of what you're saying is this the way that we're 538 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: communicating now is much faster. We don't need a gatekeeper 539 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,439 Speaker 1: to get information out there anymore, and that's good for us. 540 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: So it's creating this sort of like ground level decentralized movement, 541 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 1: but it's sort of the opposite of what the gatekeepers want. 542 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,199 Speaker 1: And so now there's multiple battles being fought, and so 543 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 1: now sort of and you put another tweet sort of 544 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: referencing the Patriot Act. And so now they see maybe 545 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: this disruption in these open monetary or open let's say 546 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: communication networks and in this you know, just in this 547 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: war scenario, they are using that as a way to 548 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 1: clamp down on Is that what you're seeing with the 549 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 1: Patriot Act reference. 550 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been seeing that, and the Patriot Act was 551 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 2: specifically there was a recent Finsend proposal to basically dramatically 552 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 2: increase the reporting requirements on various private types of crypto 553 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 2: transactions to the point where it's so broadly and vaguely 554 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 2: worded that it applies to almost everything. And so it's 555 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 2: basically a pretty draconian thing. And they cite Section three 556 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 2: one one of the Patriot Act as part of their 557 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 2: justification for it, so that parts of the patriarch are 558 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 2: alive and well all these you know, a couple of 559 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 2: decades later, and so I think that's that's kind of 560 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 2: a challenge. And going back to the gatekeeper point. Basically 561 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 2: in the old model, and this was largely just technology driven, 562 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 2: the limitations we had is that if you wanted to 563 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 2: publish a book, or if you wanted to have a 564 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 2: radio show or have a TV show, these were kind 565 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 2: of gate kept. There's publishers, there were broadcasters, and there's 566 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 2: a lot of cons that come with that, especially in 567 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,360 Speaker 2: a less free society. A couple pros or that they 568 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 2: you know, they filter out some of the you know, 569 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 2: there's some quality filter to it. In a healthy market. 570 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 2: You know, it's if the whole world's watching Walter Cronkite, 571 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:34,880 Speaker 2: they are at least on the kind of the same 572 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 2: set of facts they're working with as they debate each other. 573 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 2: But as that devolves into either more propaganda type of 574 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 2: media or just more captured corporate captured media, that that 575 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 2: kind of disintegrates. And so the fact that we've the 576 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 2: technology has made it easier to self publish a book 577 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 2: or easier to start your own radio show or start 578 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 2: your own TV show. That's literally what we're doing right now. 579 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 2: These more peer to peer interactions bring down the importance 580 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 2: of the gatekeepers, which is a net good, but then 581 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 2: it takes adjustment to that because you also a lot 582 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,719 Speaker 2: of low quality stuff enters the market and people get 583 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,719 Speaker 2: can get silent into their own echo chambers, right, so 584 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 2: where they they have a bubble and they only follow 585 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 2: people that are kind of just like them, and then 586 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 2: they end up getting shocked and certain outcomes because they 587 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 2: forget that they're in a small bubble and that most 588 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 2: of the world doesn't think like them. But most of 589 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 2: the world's in their own bubbles too, and so increasingly 590 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 2: there's people in their own little bubbles. And so I 591 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 2: think that as we have this more peer to peer world, 592 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 2: it does take some adjustment and more responsibilit in our 593 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 2: part to go out and make sure we have a 594 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 2: higher level of view, like what is this silo of thinking? 595 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 1: Now? 596 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: What is this silo of thinking? What soiloce am I 597 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 2: unconsciously in that I might not be questioning enough? Right, 598 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 2: So I think it takes more effort on the part 599 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 2: of the person and self awareness on the part of 600 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 2: the person to go out and actually, you know, it's 601 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 2: kind of like eating right, you have to go out 602 00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 2: and eat healthy things on purpose, and you have to 603 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 2: go and your information diet has to be somewhat diversified 604 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 2: and somewhat you know, just a healthy, healthy thing. And 605 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 2: when it comes to financial gatekeepers, that's the latest one 606 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 2: that's being brought down because you. 607 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 1: Know, let's talk about the media. Let's talk about the 608 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: media gate keepers for a minute before you get into 609 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: the financial side, because there's a whole lot to jump 610 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: into on that. You referenced Walter Kronkite, and to your point, 611 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: he was sort of like the main newscaster for a 612 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: long time, and really before internet, we had like three 613 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 1: TV channels and like a couple of newspapers, and I 614 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 1: remember growing up as a kid, like we all listened 615 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: to the same music, and we all watched the same movies, 616 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 1: like just what it was. But Walter Cronkite got into 617 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: trouble and there was like Kronkite Gate, where he was 618 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: caught sort of lying or bringing false facts about some stories. 619 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 1: And so then that brought down the trust that he had. 620 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 1: And so you know, while I guess I would I 621 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 1: certainly would agree with you, like it's going to be 622 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 1: way better if we all agree, and so if we 623 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 1: only get one source of information, then I guess we 624 00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: could all agree. It's sort of the premise at that 625 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 1: book Fahrenheit four fifty one was written on I don't 626 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: know if you've seen that book or read that book, 627 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: but where they destroyed all the books. There was a 628 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: for the listeners, there was a massive civil war, world war, 629 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 1: and so they said it was because people had different information, 630 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 1: and so they just destroyed all the books. And then 631 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 1: the government became the central source of truth. And then 632 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 1: they said, hey, we'll have peace if everybody reads the 633 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 1: same thing. And so certainly the world would work better 634 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 1: that way. But at the same time, we need to 635 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 1: decide what is truth and not decide truth by a gatekeeper. 636 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: But I think that truth is found through open, honest dialogue, right, 637 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 1: so like it should be. It seems like we're in 638 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: this maybe transition period. It's very difficult. But if we 639 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 1: could get to a point where information is more decentralized 640 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 1: and going to be openly discussed, then we could find 641 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 1: truth through discussion that then maybe people could tap into 642 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: as opposed to trying to have it delivered to us 643 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 1: by a trusted party. 644 00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 2: We agree with it, I agreed. I think that takes 645 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,920 Speaker 2: a while. Is my point that basically, as we enter 646 00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 2: this more decentralized world, which is which is just objectively 647 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 2: it's a it's a much better thing, but we have 648 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 2: to learn, Okay, there's gonna be a lot of lower 649 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 2: quality stuff coming to market, and so there's a lot 650 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 2: of higher quality stuff that would otherwise have been blocked, 651 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 2: but there's also a lot of a long tail of 652 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 2: low quality stuff. And then there's our responsibility to make 653 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,200 Speaker 2: sure that we don't get trapped into silos because what 654 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 2: happens is a lot of the old style kind of 655 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 2: propaganda media gets recreated in this more decentralized world. Basically, 656 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 2: people either get audience captured, so they're telling their audience 657 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 2: what they want to know. Like if they if they 658 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 2: challenge their audience and they get pushed back from it, uh, 659 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 2: they that's like a pain point. They said, no, no, I'm 660 00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 2: just gonna feed the audience what they want. Then I 661 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 2: know what my audience wants and they're gonna So that 662 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 2: that's one method. The other one is obviously, like you know, 663 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:46,880 Speaker 2: donor capture or or advertiser capture, where you know they 664 00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 2: have to kind of parrot pair it of financing source 665 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 2: to their people and that they always have to take 666 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 2: a side, and they become more like actors in a 667 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 2: similar way that that state you know, kind of state 668 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 2: media or corporate media. In many ways they're acting right 669 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 2: and so you can see, unfortunately, see the same thing 670 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 2: emerge in some of these peer to peer communication channels, 671 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 2: and so I think that partly that's a transition phase 672 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 2: that we over time, years and generations of this, we 673 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 2: get better at filtering, hopefully and hopefully that the markets 674 00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 2: kind of take care of themselves. I think that the 675 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 2: market analogy is a good one because basically it's a 676 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 2: market for information, and if people are always kind of 677 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 2: on the same line whether it's right or wrong, eventually 678 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 2: that should filter itself out and that there become trusted 679 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 2: sources that are more reliably useful and pieces of information. 680 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 2: So it's more it's trust in a sense, but it's 681 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 2: more decentralized trust. It's basically trying to filter out signal 682 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 2: from the noise. And you know, in order for a 683 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 2: society to get through this, it's just we have to 684 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 2: have more self reflection, more seeking out alternative views, which 685 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 2: is hard because when you go through these big debt 686 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 2: cycles and big macro cycles, they tend to be very 687 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 2: polarized environments. You know, both of us are familiar with 688 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 2: the fourth herning. I think that's what we're going through, 689 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 2: and so one of the dangers that are fourth herding 690 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 2: is that everybody's polarized, and now they're polarized in their 691 00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 2: own bubbles, and then they didn't even know what's with 692 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 2: AI or with kind of state propaganda. You don't even 693 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,240 Speaker 2: know it's true like Russia. Russia can go and say, Okay, 694 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 2: here's this like woke group and here's this like patriot group, 695 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,239 Speaker 2: and they can make these little fake groups that are 696 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,839 Speaker 2: arguing with each other. But they're both not real. They're 697 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,200 Speaker 2: both just an illusion. They're purposely for destabilization. And the 698 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,280 Speaker 2: United States can go do the same thing to Russia, 699 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 2: do the same thing to another country where we kind 700 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 2: of stir up, you know, social things like kind of 701 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,239 Speaker 2: real sticking points that are there. But then you just 702 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 2: add fuel to the fire. And there's really the only 703 00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 2: way to handle it is for people to be aware 704 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 2: of that and then try to cross silo and start 705 00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,840 Speaker 2: more proactively filtering for truth. 706 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 1: I think I want to dig into that, but before 707 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: it sort of seems, as you're talking about it and 708 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,760 Speaker 1: I was listening, sort of seems like it's a problem 709 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 1: that we have in this current system, but in a 710 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 1: new system, we wouldn't have that same problem. And what 711 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:13,880 Speaker 1: do I mean by that, you know, Jeff Booth always 712 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 1: talks about, you know, it's hard to see the new 713 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 1: system when we're in an existing system. And so we're 714 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,880 Speaker 1: in this existing system today where we have massive government, 715 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 1: central massive central planning. Something I think I've thought about again, 716 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:30,719 Speaker 1: if technology always changes the way that we organize. One 717 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 1: of technology is both. It can be centralizing, it can 718 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,840 Speaker 1: be decentralizing. So you could argue the Stirrup allowed for 719 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,279 Speaker 1: the feudal system to grow, right, and I could do that, 720 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,239 Speaker 1: and then you had a gunpowder revolution, and now that 721 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,920 Speaker 1: sort of decentralized the government. The Industrial Revolution brought us 722 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,920 Speaker 1: back into cities, and it got mass manufacturing. You had 723 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 1: Henry Ford created the assembly line, right, So we had 724 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:55,799 Speaker 1: these mass corporations, you had mass manufacturing. In order to 725 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 1: manage the masses. You had smart people and dumber people 726 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 1: work even on an assembly line. So then we had 727 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 1: to manage them like cogs and a wheel, so to speak. 728 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,080 Speaker 1: So we got created a new management structure, and then 729 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,239 Speaker 1: we sort of had this new government structure to manage that. 730 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 1: But we're not in that world anymore. That was like 731 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,400 Speaker 1: the Industrial age, and so now we're in like this 732 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 1: information world. And so we're with in this big government structure, 733 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,399 Speaker 1: in this Fiat money system that we have, like these 734 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 1: endless wars, and you know, a lot of what we're seeing, 735 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 1: so you say, like rally the Russians against the Ukrainians 736 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 1: or against the US, and so using these deep fakes 737 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 1: to get people on team USA or Team Russia. But 738 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,759 Speaker 1: that's a symptom of the world we're in where we 739 00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 1: have these big nations on this Viat money system that 740 00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 1: want to go to war, and potentially maybe in a 741 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 1: new structure, on a sound money system like a Bitcoin standard, 742 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,880 Speaker 1: where we don't have these big governments going to endless 743 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: war all the time, maybe them creating these deep fakes 744 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 1: to get me on team USA and someone else on 745 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,400 Speaker 1: Team Russia. Maybe that's not even a problem anymore. 746 00:36:58,200 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 2: I think, well, first of all, I think that'd be 747 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,279 Speaker 2: a it's a while away. You know that we have 748 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,959 Speaker 2: to go through a period to get to that future. Too. 749 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,360 Speaker 2: Is that I think that even in that world, you 750 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,760 Speaker 2: still have to navigate the issue. It's just different issues. 751 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,800 Speaker 2: So instead of country to country, it can be more. 752 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 1: Like tribe to tribe or tribe to tribe, or. 753 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 2: Corporate corporate to corporate, like corporate disinformation, you know, kind 754 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,239 Speaker 2: of like that, you know, like a dystopian tech novel 755 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,319 Speaker 2: where you have like just kind of corporations that are 756 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 2: just kind of cynically doing whatever they're going to do. 757 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 2: That that becomes more of the risk in that world. 758 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 2: So I think that that's something that's always with us, 759 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 2: that we always have to be aware of, and it's. 760 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,399 Speaker 1: Problems still there, just at a different level. 761 00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, different level. 762 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: So then the answer to that, then you had said 763 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,279 Speaker 1: in your tweet is we need a more intelligent society. 764 00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,800 Speaker 1: One of my old favorite punk rock bands, No Effects, 765 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,040 Speaker 1: they have a song that's like, what's the point of 766 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 1: democracy when ignorance is celebrated? Right, And so like we 767 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 1: need people to be smarter otherwise this sort of information society. 768 00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,320 Speaker 1: So if we've if we've left the industrial age and 769 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,280 Speaker 1: we're now in this information age, then we need people 770 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,240 Speaker 1: to be smarter to decipher this information. 771 00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think, I mean, obviously it's it's something 772 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,759 Speaker 2: that it's like every generation wants the next generation. They 773 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,400 Speaker 2: always complain about the next generation. Uh, It's like a 774 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,719 Speaker 2: classic thing throughout history. And I think part of the 775 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:18,280 Speaker 2: fourth turning concept is that society kind of goes through 776 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,640 Speaker 2: these trends for multiple decades and then some sort of 777 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,840 Speaker 2: crisis happens or some sort of pushback happens, and you 778 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 2: go in another direction. So I think we're seeing, you know, 779 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 2: we're seeing early signs. People are questioning the nutrition advice 780 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,919 Speaker 2: they've been given, they're questioning the medical advice they're given, 781 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:38,080 Speaker 2: they're questioning the military industrial complex, they're they're questioning the 782 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:38,760 Speaker 2: money system. 783 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,680 Speaker 1: Right, And so do you think that's because of the 784 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,280 Speaker 1: rise of decentralized information. 785 00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,239 Speaker 2: I do, yeah, because you so before, you know, you'd 786 00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,360 Speaker 2: have to like advertise your little group in like a 787 00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,400 Speaker 2: magazine and by mail, and like, you know, it's like 788 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,040 Speaker 2: a very small niche thing. Uh, And now it's people 789 00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,759 Speaker 2: people with with divergent views can find each other and 790 00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,920 Speaker 2: then even travel for like conferences. You know, they can 791 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,080 Speaker 2: go to conferences together and meet each other in person 792 00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,480 Speaker 2: in addition to being online. And and that's that's that's 793 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,360 Speaker 2: one of the things. That's why I call this a 794 00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,319 Speaker 2: very positive thing. So there's a lot of good that 795 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 2: comes from it, and so just but like most new technologies, 796 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,600 Speaker 2: you have to just manage the downsides. Like you know, 797 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 2: video games are great, but if you get kind of 798 00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,719 Speaker 2: just always playing video games or if you know, computers 799 00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 2: are great, but if you're on the computer all the 800 00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,680 Speaker 2: time and you're straining your eyes and your back, you know, 801 00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,440 Speaker 2: there's downsides to this powerful technology. And I think the 802 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,359 Speaker 2: same is generally true for this where there's so much 803 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:36,400 Speaker 2: power unlocked by decentralized media in all of its forms. 804 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,880 Speaker 2: But we do have to adjust to that and be 805 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,839 Speaker 2: able to filter out some of the downsides that come 806 00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 2: with any any new technology. 807 00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:46,680 Speaker 1: So I want to ask you how you do that, 808 00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,919 Speaker 1: because you're such a I love the way you think, 809 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:50,600 Speaker 1: so I want to get into that. But before we 810 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: do the other thing though, that we have and so 811 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,920 Speaker 1: we can look back to, you know, the Protestant Reformation 812 00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,200 Speaker 1: as a really good sort of model for that, where 813 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,319 Speaker 1: you had sort of this this and state combined that 814 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,920 Speaker 1: had to keep this narrative. But previously we had a 815 00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,279 Speaker 1: new technology called the printing press that decentralized information, and 816 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,520 Speaker 1: it created heresy and heretics, and they would you know, 817 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:11,399 Speaker 1: anyone who would read the Bible and speak out against 818 00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,319 Speaker 1: the church was put to death, etc. Didn't matter because 819 00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 1: the information was out there, and today is something similar, right, 820 00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,160 Speaker 1: So now instead of having Walter Cronkite tell us what 821 00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,520 Speaker 1: to eat. Instead of the FDA telling us what to eat, 822 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,560 Speaker 1: now we have independent people saying, oh, seed oils is 823 00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,360 Speaker 1: bad and you should try carnivore dide or whatever it 824 00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,399 Speaker 1: may be. And now we're starting to see sort of 825 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:33,439 Speaker 1: like this ideas being discussed and we're starting to see 826 00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,480 Speaker 1: which ones work. We can try different things for ourselves 827 00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,680 Speaker 1: as opposed to just getting this one narrative. However, the 828 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,000 Speaker 1: problem seems to be if we sort of break things 829 00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:44,200 Speaker 1: down to a first principles level, in order for a 830 00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,799 Speaker 1: central power to stay in power, they have to be 831 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 1: able to control the narrative somewhat. And it seems like 832 00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,440 Speaker 1: when you look, you know, study the history of empires 833 00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,400 Speaker 1: or democracies, they tend towards and maybe some of this 834 00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:02,160 Speaker 1: fourth turning, but they tend towards corruption. And as they 835 00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:06,160 Speaker 1: get more corrupt, and especially as the people see this more, 836 00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,400 Speaker 1: they get more unhappy, and so the government has to 837 00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,560 Speaker 1: control this narrative. And so it seems like we're in 838 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,919 Speaker 1: this collision course where if central powers want to stay 839 00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,360 Speaker 1: in power, they have to control the narrative. But we 840 00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 1: have technology over here that's taking away their ability to 841 00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,600 Speaker 1: control the narrative, and so like we're heading on this 842 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,719 Speaker 1: collision course that I think we're already starting to see. Now. 843 00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:30,200 Speaker 1: We've seen this, yes, in the United States nineteen seventeen, 844 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,200 Speaker 1: we saw the Sedition Act, we saw the Smith Act, 845 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,000 Speaker 1: we saw you know, different things like that where they've 846 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:40,279 Speaker 1: regulated speech based off of wartime. But do you see 847 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,480 Speaker 1: this collision course, I guess, and I think you maybe 848 00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:44,480 Speaker 1: alluded to this earlier. We're gonna have to fight for 849 00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:48,200 Speaker 1: this because because of these two imposable forces that are 850 00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,360 Speaker 1: coming together. The government needed to control the narrative, but 851 00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,680 Speaker 1: at the same time technology taking away their ability to. 852 00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 2: Do so absolutely, And I think that's happening globally. You know, 853 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 2: some countries more than others, but I think in the 854 00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,360 Speaker 2: United States, in Europe, this already happens a lot in 855 00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:05,600 Speaker 2: developing countries, you know, throughout the world. I think we're 856 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:11,040 Speaker 2: seeing increasing restrictions on you know, basically, they want to 857 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:12,920 Speaker 2: control the final system. They don't want to let these 858 00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,279 Speaker 2: new technologies kind of break out of the silo. So 859 00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,480 Speaker 2: they're trying to push back there. And I think we're 860 00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,719 Speaker 2: gonna see more control. You know, we're already seeing a 861 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,200 Speaker 2: lot of control over social media. For example, you know, 862 00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,799 Speaker 2: certain things on YouTube have a tough time staying up 863 00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,439 Speaker 2: rather than letting the audience, you know, if they don't 864 00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,560 Speaker 2: like it, they can just not look at it, and 865 00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:35,640 Speaker 2: instead they either put weird disclaimers on them and point 866 00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,719 Speaker 2: them to some kind of old school like authority that 867 00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,600 Speaker 2: was like has a bad track record anyway, or they 868 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:44,600 Speaker 2: take it down outright. And so I think that's that's 869 00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:49,799 Speaker 2: an ongoing challenge. It's going to exist, and it's a 870 00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:51,920 Speaker 2: lot of it comes down to making sure people are 871 00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,960 Speaker 2: aware of that narrative were And for me, the biggest 872 00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,520 Speaker 2: one I like to focus on is that financial freedom aspect. 873 00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:05,000 Speaker 2: Because social media is already largely won. There's there's various 874 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 2: kind of attempts at cloging some of that back. But 875 00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,719 Speaker 2: I also like there's new technologies like Noster for example, 876 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:14,880 Speaker 2: that make even more decentralized social media. So instead of 877 00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:19,320 Speaker 2: just relying on these centralized silos of media, there's various 878 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,360 Speaker 2: things you can go to if you're deplatformed if you 879 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:25,400 Speaker 2: don't want you know, kind of various either corporations or 880 00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:30,560 Speaker 2: governments kind of enticing corporations to censor them so one 881 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,880 Speaker 2: is that I like the more decentralized social media model. 882 00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,960 Speaker 2: And then two, when it comes to the transfer of value, 883 00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,839 Speaker 2: that's the one that's newer. It's kind of like a say, 884 00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,399 Speaker 2: a decade or more behind the you know, the decentralization 885 00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:47,160 Speaker 2: of information, uh, and that one's still in its earlier stage. 886 00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,839 Speaker 2: It's still a little bit more easily disruptible. And so 887 00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,359 Speaker 2: that's that's the one I tried to protect a little 888 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:58,760 Speaker 2: bit more with my words, my writing, my actions, trying 889 00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:02,759 Speaker 2: to my best to make sure the public's aware of that. 890 00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,080 Speaker 2: And I think that the good news is that with 891 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:11,439 Speaker 2: this decentralized media, and because the status quo is kind 892 00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,800 Speaker 2: of having struggling under its own weight, this is doable. 893 00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,480 Speaker 2: I mean, for example, the other day I ratioed Bloomberg 894 00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,759 Speaker 2: like seven thousand likes to like one hundred light It 895 00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:24,200 Speaker 2: was like an insane ratio, wow, because it was just 896 00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,800 Speaker 2: a really bad article. And I actually like most Bloomberg articles, 897 00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,160 Speaker 2: but this particular one, I was like, it was like 898 00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,880 Speaker 2: basically about how like it was kind of a negative 899 00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,839 Speaker 2: article about bitcoin transactions from someone who likely never sent 900 00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,880 Speaker 2: a bitcoin transaction based on what he wrote, and was 901 00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 2: like if you're sending a bitcoin traction, you're probably doing 902 00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,000 Speaker 2: something illegal. And it was like it it feels like 903 00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,560 Speaker 2: it's written in like silk road days, Like it feels 904 00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,680 Speaker 2: so out of date, and so I called them out 905 00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:55,000 Speaker 2: on it, and there was a huge reaction because you know, 906 00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,279 Speaker 2: in these types of environments when there's just more pushback 907 00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:03,120 Speaker 2: against kind of yes in the media or in you 908 00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:04,560 Speaker 2: know what we see in like political theater. 909 00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,800 Speaker 1: But that's exactly the point is, like good ideas winning 910 00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,399 Speaker 1: in open and open debates. So they put their narrative out. 911 00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,440 Speaker 1: You put their narrative out, and then the audience the 912 00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,920 Speaker 1: people sort of chimed in. You got seven thousand likes, 913 00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,200 Speaker 1: they got one hundred, and so then those good ideas 914 00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,840 Speaker 1: were challenged and people were able to kind of choose. So, 915 00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,160 Speaker 1: you know, I look at censorship and really, like I said, 916 00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,720 Speaker 1: really the central powers needing to hang on to power, 917 00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:29,040 Speaker 1: and so then in order to do that they have 918 00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,959 Speaker 1: to censor. So one censor our speech, right, which also 919 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,040 Speaker 1: sensors what we can read in our ideas, our thoughts, 920 00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,680 Speaker 1: but also our money. To your point that you're talking 921 00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,760 Speaker 1: about the financial piece, and so what we've seen for example, 922 00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,799 Speaker 1: just recently with like Russell Brand, they went after his 923 00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,239 Speaker 1: ability to earn money. They wanted to take his monetization 924 00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,320 Speaker 1: off of his YouTube channel. I'm sure you saw the 925 00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:52,000 Speaker 1: letter that the UK Parliament i think wrote to Parlor saying, hey, 926 00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,960 Speaker 1: we're troubled that he can still make money like what 927 00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,319 Speaker 1: you have. Like Alex Jones, he was probably the first 928 00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,680 Speaker 1: person that was deplatformed, right wiped off the face of 929 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,200 Speaker 1: the earths. But he's probably bigger today than ever, still 930 00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,760 Speaker 1: on the Internet. But it's the money that they go after. 931 00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,960 Speaker 1: And so we have these open monetary networks. The Internet 932 00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,279 Speaker 1: is somewhat decentralized already. And now, like to your point, Noster, 933 00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,239 Speaker 1: which I'll just say, I've been still locked out of 934 00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,239 Speaker 1: my Twitter account for almost three months now. It's for devastated, 935 00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:23,680 Speaker 1: going on three months. Elon, if you're listening, please turn 936 00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,600 Speaker 1: me back on. George Gammon's also locked out of his 937 00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,719 Speaker 1: account the same thing, and both of us are the 938 00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,960 Speaker 1: same problem. They reset our two FA and we just 939 00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,919 Speaker 1: filled out like twenty support reguys. Just reset my TWFA 940 00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,800 Speaker 1: and the rub is they're still charging me monthly for 941 00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:41,600 Speaker 1: my blue subscription. Anyway, maybe I should have just started 942 00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,879 Speaker 1: posting on a noster. But anyway, so we have these 943 00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:48,239 Speaker 1: decentralized platforms and really, now this money piece is this 944 00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,120 Speaker 1: is this next piece. So they need to censor that, 945 00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 1: They need to control that, if you will, not just 946 00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,560 Speaker 1: the speech, but our money, our value transfer as well. 947 00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,960 Speaker 1: This is sort of what we've seen throughout history creative destruction. 948 00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:04,040 Speaker 1: Right the lud Heites, they went and destroyed the looms. 949 00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,279 Speaker 1: They didn't like the looms, putting them out of jobs. Right, 950 00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,960 Speaker 1: the candlemakers didn't electricity, the buggy makers didn't like the cars. 951 00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:14,880 Speaker 1: But this is different. You know, the movie companies and 952 00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,200 Speaker 1: the movie industry and the music industry didn't like streaming. 953 00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:20,520 Speaker 1: But maybe this is different because it's government. But it 954 00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,440 Speaker 1: seems to me that when the technology is so much better, 955 00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:25,480 Speaker 1: when it's one hundred times, when it's a thousand times better, 956 00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:27,719 Speaker 1: it just wins out. It's a rough transition, but at 957 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:29,960 Speaker 1: the end, it just wins out. Would you agree? 958 00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,560 Speaker 2: I agree? This is the hardest battle. You know, when 959 00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:33,960 Speaker 2: you when you. 960 00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:35,800 Speaker 1: Go it's the final boss, it's the big boss. 961 00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:37,719 Speaker 2: This is the final boss, like you know when you 962 00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:41,279 Speaker 2: we kind of went through gatekeeper after gatekeeper after gatekeeper, 963 00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,719 Speaker 2: and the biggest one left is the state and their 964 00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:48,800 Speaker 2: money and and so that like that's not gonna be 965 00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,000 Speaker 2: that's it's not gonna be left. 966 00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,200 Speaker 1: But it's bread is broken and it has to be fixed. 967 00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,719 Speaker 2: So I agree, I agree, and I think And it's 968 00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:59,520 Speaker 2: also different countries have different levels of pushback. And so 969 00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:02,840 Speaker 2: for example, simple there's there's nothing that Argentina can do 970 00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,680 Speaker 2: about the fact that stable coins and bitcoin keep penetrating 971 00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,400 Speaker 2: into their country, right because there's nothing they can do 972 00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,359 Speaker 2: about it. They can they've already tried to cut off 973 00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,640 Speaker 2: the bank and the fintech uh friction points going in there. 974 00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:19,200 Speaker 2: But the more ubiquitous and widely known liquid these assets get, uh, 975 00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,279 Speaker 2: it's it's just you're you're trying to like build a 976 00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,839 Speaker 2: sand wall against the rising tide. It's just it's just 977 00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,879 Speaker 2: gonna you can hold it back, you can hold it back, 978 00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:30,840 Speaker 2: but you're you're fighting something that's almost inevitable. Now. Obviously, 979 00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,840 Speaker 2: entities like the United States and China and the European 980 00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:37,520 Speaker 2: Union have more ammo uh to go at this, and 981 00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:40,400 Speaker 2: so that's that's more of a longer term battle, I think. 982 00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:42,920 Speaker 2: So I don't think that people should just assume that 983 00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:46,400 Speaker 2: they win because with these things. I mean, things can 984 00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:49,800 Speaker 2: get set back a generation, right, So if you want, 985 00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,480 Speaker 2: like yourself and your kids to enjoy that, you know, 986 00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:55,840 Speaker 2: it's it's like, you know, you don't want to you 987 00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:57,440 Speaker 2: don't want to take it for granted and have the 988 00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:01,919 Speaker 2: whole thing happen fifty years late and fear that's yeah, 989 00:49:01,960 --> 00:49:05,200 Speaker 2: that's the risk. And so this technology exists now even 990 00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:09,440 Speaker 2: if it's somehow killed, it can reform itself, but it's 991 00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,040 Speaker 2: you know, ideally you want it to win on the 992 00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,399 Speaker 2: first try. You don't want to have to have to 993 00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,680 Speaker 2: go into the dark ages for a period of time 994 00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:20,040 Speaker 2: and then come back. And WikiLeaks was a great example. 995 00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:23,799 Speaker 2: One of the first use cases of bitcoin was WikiLeaks 996 00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:28,399 Speaker 2: was deplatformed monetarily and they turned a bitcoin. And now 997 00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:31,000 Speaker 2: in recent months we've seen wiki leaks has put some 998 00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:34,279 Speaker 2: of the information itself in the bitcoin blockchain. So, in 999 00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,760 Speaker 2: addition to bitcoin being decentralized money, kind of a lesser 1000 00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:42,200 Speaker 2: use case for it is it's the most decentralized database 1001 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,320 Speaker 2: that we know how to build for small amounts of information, 1002 00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:49,400 Speaker 2: and so important documents or information can be put in 1003 00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,560 Speaker 2: there and that doesn't necessarily mean that they're true, but 1004 00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:55,200 Speaker 2: it means that they've not been changed since they're put in. 1005 00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:57,400 Speaker 2: And so you know, someone wants to put in the 1006 00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,960 Speaker 2: book nineteen eighty four or Animal Farm or you know, 1007 00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:05,680 Speaker 2: fair Knight for Bible or the Bible, or these wikilies cables, 1008 00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,399 Speaker 2: you know, whatever the case may be. You can put 1009 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,520 Speaker 2: in information that you you want to exist in the 1010 00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:15,080 Speaker 2: future and say, okay, well regards whatever happens, as long 1011 00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,600 Speaker 2: as this decentralized network, which is you know, stored in 1012 00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,880 Speaker 2: tens of thousands of nodes, it's something that is provably 1013 00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:24,399 Speaker 2: unchanged since that was put in. And so that's that's 1014 00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:28,319 Speaker 2: one of the non monetary use cases for it. But 1015 00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,360 Speaker 2: you know, the money wants the bigger one overall, but 1016 00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,080 Speaker 2: I think that second one shouldn't be overlooked. 1017 00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I also like, you know, sort of like 1018 00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:39,120 Speaker 1: what Jack has done with what Blue Sky and using 1019 00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,439 Speaker 1: the Bitcoin blockchain to hash the d i ds in there, 1020 00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,840 Speaker 1: so a decentralized identifier and so you know, potentially in 1021 00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:48,279 Speaker 1: a world hopefully not too far away, instead of having 1022 00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:51,600 Speaker 1: Facebook and Google have our sso or login IDs, we 1023 00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,759 Speaker 1: could own our IDs. I think it's pretty cool. Maybe 1024 00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,040 Speaker 1: it's a noster using a private key. We don't know 1025 00:50:58,080 --> 00:50:59,879 Speaker 1: how that will win out. But as of right now, 1026 00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,640 Speaker 1: those de ideas, I guess are recognized by the World 1027 00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:05,320 Speaker 1: Wide Web Consortium or whatever it is. But it's used, 1028 00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,440 Speaker 1: it's it's being hashed in the bitcoin blockchain. So we 1029 00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,080 Speaker 1: sort of have the bitcoin network and then we have 1030 00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:11,880 Speaker 1: the bitcoin as an asset. So there's sort of like 1031 00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:13,520 Speaker 1: two things going on. I guess is that sort of 1032 00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:14,040 Speaker 1: how you see it? 1033 00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I And you know, we'll see what layers went out. 1034 00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,839 Speaker 2: I think Noster has a little bit more organic. It's 1035 00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,960 Speaker 2: a little bit kind of simpler, you know, like basically 1036 00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:27,040 Speaker 2: sometimes simple protocols uh just kind of went out and 1037 00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:31,160 Speaker 2: and Jack himself spends quite a bit of time on Noster. Uh. 1038 00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,440 Speaker 2: But you know, we'll see it. And there doesn't necessarily 1039 00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,560 Speaker 2: to be one. You can have. You can have different 1040 00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,120 Speaker 2: layers for different purposes or different use cases or just 1041 00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:42,200 Speaker 2: different choices. Uh. And they make they make use of 1042 00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:44,920 Speaker 2: bitcoin in their own ways. Uh. And so I think 1043 00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:48,560 Speaker 2: that these technologies, as long as there's a spark a 1044 00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:51,080 Speaker 2: live somewhere in the world, you know, some some jurisdictions 1045 00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:53,560 Speaker 2: will push back on other jurisdictions will open up to 1046 00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:55,320 Speaker 2: it and say if you want to build this stuff 1047 00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:58,040 Speaker 2: come to us. And as long as there are people 1048 00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:01,760 Speaker 2: advancing this, which there currently are, I think both information 1049 00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:04,719 Speaker 2: and money are on track to get more and more decentralized. 1050 00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's that game theory piece. I read this book. 1051 00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:10,360 Speaker 1: You might have heard it before. It's The Revolt of 1052 00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,640 Speaker 1: the Public. It was written by Martin Gurry. He's a 1053 00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:16,680 Speaker 1: CIA analyst, and he talks about how basically the Internet 1054 00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:20,200 Speaker 1: has given us so much information that the center, the 1055 00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,960 Speaker 1: central planning, the Center could never hold because the public 1056 00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,560 Speaker 1: is too broad. But anyway, he talks about how this 1057 00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:27,840 Speaker 1: Internet is and he kind of goes through history and 1058 00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,880 Speaker 1: talks about how in the Arab Spring, how the Facebook 1059 00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,200 Speaker 1: was used to kind of overthrow the government in Egypt, 1060 00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,840 Speaker 1: and he talks about Israel, etc. But the point that 1061 00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:37,960 Speaker 1: he makes is that the governments are sort of caught 1062 00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,640 Speaker 1: between this rock and a hard place where if they 1063 00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,880 Speaker 1: allow this freedom of the Internet, this freedom of ideas 1064 00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,520 Speaker 1: and communication, if they allow it, their country is going 1065 00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,120 Speaker 1: to flourish. It's going to create all these new jobs 1066 00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:52,120 Speaker 1: and businesses and people will be smart, etc. But then 1067 00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:56,319 Speaker 1: they'll probably lose power. They could choose to not allow it, 1068 00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,400 Speaker 1: but then they hold themselves back in the dark ages, 1069 00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:00,800 Speaker 1: and so they kind of have like they're trying to 1070 00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:02,800 Speaker 1: kind of ride this line. You can be North Korea 1071 00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:05,600 Speaker 1: and like sense or everything, but then your North Korea. Right. 1072 00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:09,239 Speaker 1: So that's where this kind of game theory plays out, 1073 00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:11,319 Speaker 1: hopefully in a shorter period of time and not a 1074 00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,719 Speaker 1: longer period of time. But to your point about you know, 1075 00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:17,680 Speaker 1: hopefully this doesn't leap frog a decade or generation. You know, 1076 00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,480 Speaker 1: it scares me seeing these seventy eighty year olds in 1077 00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:24,040 Speaker 1: office making laws against things that they just don't understand. 1078 00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the average age of a fortune five hundred 1079 00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:30,160 Speaker 1: CEO is in their fifties, like fifty five, certainly not eighty, 1080 00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:32,799 Speaker 1: and certainly not passing laws to your point that could 1081 00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,359 Speaker 1: impact generations. I know we're kind of starting to run 1082 00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:38,000 Speaker 1: down on time here, so I want to get to 1083 00:53:38,600 --> 00:53:40,239 Speaker 1: one last thing I want to ask you about, because, 1084 00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,239 Speaker 1: like I said a couple times in this interview, like 1085 00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:45,200 Speaker 1: the way that you think and process information is amazing. 1086 00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,360 Speaker 1: I haven't gotten through this whole book yet, I have 1087 00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,160 Speaker 1: to just say that, but it's a great book. Everyone 1088 00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:54,600 Speaker 1: should check out this book. I'm also a paid subscriber 1089 00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,160 Speaker 1: to your newsletter. It's amazing. We'll link to that in 1090 00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:58,920 Speaker 1: the notes down below. But like, the way that you 1091 00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:04,160 Speaker 1: process information is very analytical. I guess maybe it's your 1092 00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,560 Speaker 1: engineering background. So you put on a tweet talking about 1093 00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:11,239 Speaker 1: like deciphering information, and you were talking about that, and 1094 00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:12,799 Speaker 1: it's something that I've kind of said as well. But 1095 00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,480 Speaker 1: it's that in the past, maybe the problem was getting information, 1096 00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:19,239 Speaker 1: and today we have too much. You said, we have 1097 00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:22,760 Speaker 1: too much info? What can we filter out? On social media? 1098 00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:26,320 Speaker 1: We resort to patterns, but patterns breed tribalism. It takes effort, 1099 00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:29,120 Speaker 1: extra effort to have a global view and ask how 1100 00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,680 Speaker 1: can people of all types flourish. So in this world 1101 00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:34,919 Speaker 1: that you framed up for us, and this tweet talks 1102 00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:39,000 Speaker 1: about where we have too much information, what do you do? 1103 00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:41,040 Speaker 1: What are practical steps that you do or that other 1104 00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:44,240 Speaker 1: people could do to sort of decipher this and find 1105 00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:45,040 Speaker 1: some truth there. 1106 00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,799 Speaker 2: I think one step is to be aware of the 1107 00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:51,880 Speaker 2: tribes that exist or or the echo chambers that naturally form. 1108 00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,400 Speaker 2: They used to be formed largely due to geography, and 1109 00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:58,279 Speaker 2: now now it's more digital, right, So it's not a 1110 00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:00,839 Speaker 2: physical tribe, it's a digital tribe. And so the one 1111 00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:04,240 Speaker 2: is to say, okay, which echo chambers are forming, which 1112 00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:06,879 Speaker 2: ones am I maybe finding myself in. So those things 1113 00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,279 Speaker 2: start seeming increasingly obvious because all the people I follow 1114 00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:11,880 Speaker 2: are kind of saying the same thing. And then they're 1115 00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:15,399 Speaker 2: you know, and I'm attracting followers that think that too, 1116 00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:17,759 Speaker 2: and we're kind of feeding on each other. How can 1117 00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:21,359 Speaker 2: we challenge ourselves? So you identify what tribes you might 1118 00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:25,200 Speaker 2: be in, identify the other tribes that exist, and then say, okay, 1119 00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:27,960 Speaker 2: they're they're the other tribes are not all dummies, they 1120 00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:30,880 Speaker 2: have they have smart people in there too, at least most, 1121 00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:33,200 Speaker 2: I mean some some you know, some ideas are just 1122 00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:36,000 Speaker 2: really bad. But like most other tribes, there's this is 1123 00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:39,080 Speaker 2: a complex world. So it's okay, what can identify some 1124 00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:41,960 Speaker 2: of the most high signal intelligent people from those other 1125 00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:44,240 Speaker 2: tribes and make sure I'm aware of what they're saying, 1126 00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:46,480 Speaker 2: what their argument are. Can I can I recite their 1127 00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:48,759 Speaker 2: argument back to them in a way that they would 1128 00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:51,760 Speaker 2: be pleased with even if I disagree with it. It's 1129 00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,600 Speaker 2: the process of steel manning an argument. So instead of 1130 00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:57,799 Speaker 2: straw meaning an argument by saying this other tribe thinks this, 1131 00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,239 Speaker 2: and it's like, you know, you're mischaracterizing their views. You're 1132 00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,480 Speaker 2: giving a simplistic view. You're saying, Okay, here is this 1133 00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,200 Speaker 2: person I disagree with. They're saying this argument, and if anything, 1134 00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:09,440 Speaker 2: you're trying to make their argument sound even better, and 1135 00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:11,560 Speaker 2: then you're saying, okay, here's why I disagree with it. 1136 00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:16,480 Speaker 2: So I think basically that that intentionality of purposely keeping 1137 00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:21,880 Speaker 2: your finger on the pulls of multiple different silos, echo chambers, tribes, 1138 00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:24,560 Speaker 2: what every want to call them, the more at least, 1139 00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,919 Speaker 2: the more intelligent side of each of them, because each 1140 00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,000 Speaker 2: one's going to have a spectrum of thought leaders versus 1141 00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:34,680 Speaker 2: just pure tribalists. So you identify the highest you people, 1142 00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,000 Speaker 2: and that that just gives you a more global perspective. 1143 00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:38,680 Speaker 2: It helps you. It helps you see errors where you 1144 00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:42,640 Speaker 2: might be wrong or where you might be maybe you're right, 1145 00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,319 Speaker 2: but you realize that you're in a small minority than 1146 00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,880 Speaker 2: you think. Uh, and then therefore you have to just 1147 00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:52,360 Speaker 2: probable outcomes for certain things, even if you prefer your outcome. 1148 00:56:53,400 --> 00:56:56,760 Speaker 2: There's multiple kind of reasons why that ends up being useful. 1149 00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:00,880 Speaker 2: In addition, it helps you if you wanted to have 1150 00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,680 Speaker 2: your ideas spread to them the more effective you're going 1151 00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:07,360 Speaker 2: to be is if you understand their ideas more thoroughly, 1152 00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,520 Speaker 2: if you can recite their ideas back to them in 1153 00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,440 Speaker 2: a way that they actually can tell you actually understand 1154 00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,640 Speaker 2: what they're thinking, and then you say, well, here's why 1155 00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:19,840 Speaker 2: I disagree. You can make inroads into there in a 1156 00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:21,560 Speaker 2: way that most people can't, and. 1157 00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:23,040 Speaker 1: So I open honest dialogue. 1158 00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:26,760 Speaker 2: It works exactly, And so both for both challenging your 1159 00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:28,960 Speaker 2: own ideas and making sure you're in the right echo 1160 00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,720 Speaker 2: chambers or just ideally not an echo chamber, but basically 1161 00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:35,960 Speaker 2: both stress testing yourself and figure out how to spread 1162 00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:40,160 Speaker 2: your ideas to others. It really takes that intentionality, to 1163 00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:44,520 Speaker 2: that open mindness and that intentionality to go out and say, look, 1164 00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:46,680 Speaker 2: there are people that are smart, but they disagree with me, 1165 00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:48,840 Speaker 2: and I want to make sure I know what they're 1166 00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:51,160 Speaker 2: saying and what they're thinking and what they're focused on, 1167 00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:53,560 Speaker 2: so that I don't get too caught up in a 1168 00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:56,160 Speaker 2: small thing that I assume is bigger than it really is. 1169 00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,880 Speaker 1: So then one you need to find the signal, the 1170 00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:03,360 Speaker 1: highest signal people you can follow, but making sure you're 1171 00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,680 Speaker 1: following people on both sides of the aisle. So you're 1172 00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:08,280 Speaker 1: not just getting feedback from your own echo chamber, you're 1173 00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:12,600 Speaker 1: also getting the opposite side of the argument as well. 1174 00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:14,920 Speaker 1: Trying to take time to understand the argument and then 1175 00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:18,560 Speaker 1: engage in honest dialogue so that you can understand that better. 1176 00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:19,960 Speaker 1: I mean, that's sort of like the high. 1177 00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:21,520 Speaker 2: Level of it. Yeah, and approach it, and a lot 1178 00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,800 Speaker 2: of times approach it like a questioner. So don't approach 1179 00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:26,919 Speaker 2: it like you're already one hundred percent correct, because nonither 1180 00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:28,800 Speaker 2: of us, none of us are gonna be a hundredercent 1181 00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,600 Speaker 2: correct and everything. So approach it as though, like, Okay, 1182 00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,600 Speaker 2: you've thought certain things out. There could be areas that 1183 00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:37,000 Speaker 2: you've thought about less than other areas, and that you 1184 00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,680 Speaker 2: could learn something from a person you otherwise disagree with, 1185 00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:42,240 Speaker 2: just as you would hope that they would learn something 1186 00:58:42,280 --> 00:58:45,840 Speaker 2: from you. And so it's not just seeking out to 1187 00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:49,360 Speaker 2: challenge them, but it's seeking out to understand them more, 1188 00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:53,000 Speaker 2: to fully stress test your own ideas. And like, for example, 1189 00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:57,000 Speaker 2: Broken Money, the book, you know, I purposely wrote it 1190 00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,240 Speaker 2: in such a way to try to reach a pretty 1191 00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:03,120 Speaker 2: wide audience to say, Okay, if you don't care at 1192 00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:05,480 Speaker 2: all about bitcoin, it's like, let's explore the history of 1193 00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:08,560 Speaker 2: money and some of these future technologies for where we're going. 1194 00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:12,240 Speaker 2: And then if you are to bitcoin, it basically says, Okay, 1195 00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:14,160 Speaker 2: here's some ideas that you might not have explored as 1196 00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:18,120 Speaker 2: thoroughly from other bitcoin books, and then therefore you might 1197 00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,240 Speaker 2: be caught off guard by certain arguments that they can make. 1198 00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:23,320 Speaker 2: So it kind of like seeks out intelligent people from 1199 00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:27,120 Speaker 2: multiple camps as it explores the history of money. And 1200 00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:29,960 Speaker 2: I just think basically that kind of technique applied to 1201 00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:34,880 Speaker 2: multiple different subjects is important, and especially when we're you know, 1202 00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:38,200 Speaker 2: we sovereign debt crisis can lead to war, and work 1203 00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:40,120 Speaker 2: can lead to sovereign debt crisis. These things tend to 1204 00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,840 Speaker 2: feed on each other, and so in this world, and 1205 00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:47,200 Speaker 2: then especially when we add things like AI and purposeful 1206 00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:51,120 Speaker 2: misinformation either from state actors or corporate actors or tribes 1207 00:59:51,200 --> 00:59:53,600 Speaker 2: or whatever the case is, it just takes a lot 1208 00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:57,560 Speaker 2: of responsibility. It's really on us how well we get 1209 00:59:57,600 --> 01:00:00,280 Speaker 2: through this era. You know, it's like it come down 1210 01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:04,760 Speaker 2: to individual people making better decisions. Why do some cultures 1211 01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,280 Speaker 2: flourish and others fail. It's because a critical mass of 1212 01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:11,840 Speaker 2: the people kind of just cut through the noise and say, look, 1213 01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:14,480 Speaker 2: these are the virtues I'm going to stick with. Uh, 1214 01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:17,480 Speaker 2: these are I'm going to be educated. I'm going to 1215 01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:19,560 Speaker 2: seek out multiple views since I can fill to the 1216 01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:23,160 Speaker 2: right ones. I'm gonna try to empathize the people I 1217 01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:26,320 Speaker 2: disagree with and say, what would what would the smartest 1218 01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:29,680 Speaker 2: version of this alternative argument look like? And what what 1219 01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:31,560 Speaker 2: does my argument look like to them? 1220 01:00:31,880 --> 01:00:32,040 Speaker 1: Right? 1221 01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:34,520 Speaker 2: So, what is a smart version of my argument sound 1222 01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:36,840 Speaker 2: like to someone who disagrees with it? What point do 1223 01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:40,680 Speaker 2: they specifically think I'm not thinking through? Because there's there's 1224 01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:42,120 Speaker 2: a lot of problems in the world. There's a lot 1225 01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:46,520 Speaker 2: of emotions. Uh, it comes down to political views, religious views, 1226 01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:51,600 Speaker 2: control versus subjects. There's so many vectors here and the 1227 01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:54,000 Speaker 2: stakes are pretty high, and I think we just all 1228 01:00:54,040 --> 01:00:55,560 Speaker 2: have to challenge ourselves. 1229 01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:58,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that. I think of it. I know 1230 01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:00,880 Speaker 1: you're into martial arts and you do. I think about 1231 01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:04,040 Speaker 1: it like verbal sparring, Like I love to just talk 1232 01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:06,120 Speaker 1: to someone with the opposing views and if we can 1233 01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:07,760 Speaker 1: have a good dialogue, it's kind of fun. Just like 1234 01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,200 Speaker 1: I would go a spar against an opponent and we 1235 01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:12,920 Speaker 1: get to try each other's technique against each other. It's 1236 01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:14,280 Speaker 1: one of the reason why I love sitting down with 1237 01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:17,479 Speaker 1: Peter McCormick. We see we're kind of set on opposite sides, 1238 01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:20,120 Speaker 1: but we can have a good honest dialogue about it. 1239 01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,800 Speaker 1: My show producer Q he's also on a different political 1240 01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:25,760 Speaker 1: ideology than I am a little bit for the most part, 1241 01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:28,400 Speaker 1: but we have good honest dialogue and it helps both 1242 01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:30,680 Speaker 1: of us to kind of explore these ideas if we 1243 01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:34,320 Speaker 1: can talk about it. It's when they throw out the 1244 01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,240 Speaker 1: nuclear bomb arguments that it kind of goes sideways. But 1245 01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,200 Speaker 1: I have time for maybe one more question. And so 1246 01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:42,720 Speaker 1: you mentioned the bitcoin piece, and so I just want 1247 01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:46,520 Speaker 1: to maybe ask one more question there. A lot of 1248 01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:49,240 Speaker 1: people are starting to kind of hang their hopes on 1249 01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:52,760 Speaker 1: this Bitcoin ETF being this like big catalyst that we need. 1250 01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,240 Speaker 1: I have this view that we talk about, you know, 1251 01:01:56,280 --> 01:01:58,960 Speaker 1: bitcoin is money for your enemy, so to speak. Right, 1252 01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:02,600 Speaker 1: So like bitcoin is aid for peer to peer transactions, 1253 01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:05,000 Speaker 1: So it's sort of like anti establishment. You know, we 1254 01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:09,520 Speaker 1: don't need gatekeepers, We don't need that anymore. But a 1255 01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:11,600 Speaker 1: lot of times people say in the United States don't 1256 01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:13,400 Speaker 1: really understand why we need that, because our money works 1257 01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:16,040 Speaker 1: pretty good in third world countries. They do understand it, 1258 01:02:16,120 --> 01:02:18,400 Speaker 1: especially when their money is really really bad. To your point, 1259 01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:22,920 Speaker 1: do you think that Wall Street could be the catalyst 1260 01:02:22,960 --> 01:02:26,200 Speaker 1: that gets it going? Or I'm starting to think that 1261 01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:29,480 Speaker 1: maybe what we really need is a more adversarial lens 1262 01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:32,600 Speaker 1: against bitcoin for it to prove its real value and worth, 1263 01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:36,640 Speaker 1: to prove its utility. So like in North Korea or 1264 01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:39,560 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan, you could understand why you need a money 1265 01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:41,560 Speaker 1: that moves peer to peer and it's not censors, but 1266 01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:44,200 Speaker 1: maybe in the US we don't. So what do you 1267 01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:45,960 Speaker 1: think it could be both? Or do you think one 1268 01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:47,120 Speaker 1: is better catalyst than the other. 1269 01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:49,200 Speaker 2: I think we're gonna get both together because I think 1270 01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:51,680 Speaker 2: Wall Street is likely going to help in price, which 1271 01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:54,880 Speaker 2: is good for the network. But meanwhile, the government, through 1272 01:02:55,160 --> 01:02:59,560 Speaker 2: Finsen and various Patriot Act kind of references, are going 1273 01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:03,200 Speaker 2: to really after the privacy side and the self custodial 1274 01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:08,480 Speaker 2: side potentially, And so I think that there's there's two fronts, 1275 01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:11,440 Speaker 2: you know, kind of on this war here. I think 1276 01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:12,480 Speaker 2: it's inevitable. 1277 01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:14,760 Speaker 1: That, but that's also a US centric view, right, So 1278 01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:15,760 Speaker 1: what about globally? 1279 01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:18,200 Speaker 2: Well, So what I was gonna get to is that 1280 01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:22,560 Speaker 2: ironically the reason it's so interlinked, right, So as an 1281 01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:26,440 Speaker 2: asset monetizes, it achieves certain liquidity. Like, for example, when 1282 01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:29,680 Speaker 2: it traded a few thousand dollars a day, someone couldn't 1283 01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:32,040 Speaker 2: just ape into it a million dollars. When it trades 1284 01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:34,240 Speaker 2: a few million dollars a day, someone couldn't just ape 1285 01:03:34,240 --> 01:03:36,360 Speaker 2: into it the billion dollars. When it trades a few 1286 01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:39,320 Speaker 2: billion dollars a day. There's even bigger pools of capital 1287 01:03:39,360 --> 01:03:41,520 Speaker 2: that still have they can move the price if they 1288 01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:44,880 Speaker 2: get too bullish or bearish in a day. The larger 1289 01:03:45,080 --> 01:03:48,600 Speaker 2: and more widespread and more kind of ubiquitous it is, 1290 01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:51,160 Speaker 2: the more types of pools of capital that own non 1291 01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:54,400 Speaker 2: zero amounts of it, the bigger and more liquid it gets, 1292 01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:56,800 Speaker 2: the harder it becomes for any one entity to move it. 1293 01:03:57,360 --> 01:03:59,120 Speaker 2: I think that's healthy for the network. If you go 1294 01:03:59,200 --> 01:04:01,480 Speaker 2: to and this is where I tie it ties in 1295 01:04:01,520 --> 01:04:03,160 Speaker 2: the rest of the world. If you go to some 1296 01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:05,920 Speaker 2: in Argentina and you say, why aren't you like all 1297 01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:08,520 Speaker 2: in bitcoin, they're like, well, it's super volatile. You know. 1298 01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:10,880 Speaker 2: I like bitcoin, but I have to hold mostly stable 1299 01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:13,640 Speaker 2: coins because I have to know what my value is 1300 01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:15,640 Speaker 2: going to be worse than two months, right, bitcoin I 1301 01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:18,200 Speaker 2: can hold for five years, but I have to I 1302 01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,440 Speaker 2: have to have something more stable in the shorter term. 1303 01:04:20,680 --> 01:04:25,240 Speaker 2: But bitcoin only achieves that lower volatility if it becomes 1304 01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:30,120 Speaker 2: more big, ubiquitous liquid, And it's also just its inevitability. 1305 01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:33,760 Speaker 2: Basicallyf we hit higher levels of monetization, eventually larger pools 1306 01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:36,120 Speaker 2: of capital want to join. Maybe a central bank somewhere 1307 01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,840 Speaker 2: adds it to their balance sheet, maybe black Rock apes 1308 01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:41,480 Speaker 2: into it. Right, there's certain empties that start going after it, 1309 01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:45,360 Speaker 2: and not only do they become relevant for their own countries. 1310 01:04:45,520 --> 01:04:47,400 Speaker 2: Like so, for example, it is good for people in 1311 01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:48,920 Speaker 2: there are various four to one k's if they can 1312 01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:52,360 Speaker 2: have a non zero bitcoin position in there, you know, 1313 01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,440 Speaker 2: for their own kind of protection. If we if some 1314 01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:55,960 Speaker 2: of the things we talked about play out, like a 1315 01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:59,200 Speaker 2: stagflationary stock market and a housing market and a bond market. 1316 01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:01,720 Speaker 2: You know, if they have a non zier amount of 1317 01:05:01,760 --> 01:05:05,680 Speaker 2: bitcoin and their four wing k it's one, and if 1318 01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:08,320 Speaker 2: that capital is kind of stuck there anyway, and if 1319 01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:10,440 Speaker 2: they're you know, age sixty and maybe they don't want 1320 01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:13,440 Speaker 2: to get a cold card, you know, and there are 1321 01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:15,640 Speaker 2: sixty year olds that love cold cards, but maybe not 1322 01:05:15,720 --> 01:05:19,440 Speaker 2: everyone that's an access point for them. But then in addition, 1323 01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:23,040 Speaker 2: even if Americans then are not using bitcoin in the 1324 01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,080 Speaker 2: way that we would maybe prefer, they would use it 1325 01:05:25,120 --> 01:05:29,040 Speaker 2: like I recommend self custody, I recommend swan or any 1326 01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:33,680 Speaker 2: of the other kind of bitcoin focused on ramps. But 1327 01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:35,800 Speaker 2: for people that are not using it that way, they 1328 01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:39,160 Speaker 2: still strengthen the network for people in other countries. If 1329 01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:42,120 Speaker 2: bitcoin is five x bigger or ten x bigger and 1330 01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:44,720 Speaker 2: it's somewhat less volatile, still gonna be volatile for a 1331 01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:47,840 Speaker 2: while until it's like ubiquitous. But if it's less volatile 1332 01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,640 Speaker 2: and it's more known and it's had another cycle of growth, 1333 01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:53,560 Speaker 2: that can bring it to more awareness for people in 1334 01:05:53,600 --> 01:05:56,520 Speaker 2: all these other countries that can use it in hopefully 1335 01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:58,000 Speaker 2: the more cipherpunk way. 1336 01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:04,440 Speaker 1: And so then the US centric sort of financialization of 1337 01:06:04,480 --> 01:06:07,360 Speaker 1: bitcoin is maybe a shorter term catalyst in a sense 1338 01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:08,919 Speaker 1: where it brings more money to it, which then makes 1339 01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:10,760 Speaker 1: the market caap bigger, which then makes it more stable, 1340 01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:13,840 Speaker 1: and then the other nations might recognize that as more 1341 01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:16,520 Speaker 1: stable and they could adopt it better. So you think 1342 01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:19,400 Speaker 1: the sort of I guess money argument is a better 1343 01:06:19,480 --> 01:06:23,880 Speaker 1: catalyst than the near term than the sort of adversarial 1344 01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:26,720 Speaker 1: lens even though we're seeing you know, because I guess 1345 01:06:26,760 --> 01:06:29,080 Speaker 1: maybe those transactions in other countries where the demand is 1346 01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:32,680 Speaker 1: higher from the adversarial lens, the transaction volumes are too low, 1347 01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:35,120 Speaker 1: so it doesn't really bring the stabilization that's needed to it. 1348 01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:38,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think the way I would describe it 1349 01:06:38,960 --> 01:06:42,560 Speaker 2: is that there's just kind of some to give inevitability 1350 01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:47,040 Speaker 2: to it. But that I view it both. It's adversarial 1351 01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:49,760 Speaker 2: at the same time as it's advantageous because on one hand, 1352 01:06:51,200 --> 01:06:53,160 Speaker 2: like America as a government does kind of want a 1353 01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:56,400 Speaker 2: walled garden this thing. And so for example, I don't 1354 01:06:56,480 --> 01:06:58,560 Speaker 2: view the bitcoin et apps the best way to hold it, 1355 01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:03,160 Speaker 2: but I do think that ironically that adds stability to 1356 01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:05,800 Speaker 2: the market. It's just another it's not like a unique 1357 01:07:05,880 --> 01:07:08,320 Speaker 2: level of stability. It's just another level of stability. If 1358 01:07:08,400 --> 01:07:11,040 Speaker 2: Japan's central bank decides to have a five percent Bitcoin position, 1359 01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:13,280 Speaker 2: that's another you know, it's a completely different example. There 1360 01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:15,680 Speaker 2: are all these big pools of capital that for a 1361 01:07:15,680 --> 01:07:19,040 Speaker 2: while bitcoin's been too small for them or unclear if 1362 01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:21,080 Speaker 2: it's going to work out, and it reaches a certain 1363 01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:24,600 Speaker 2: critical mass though, you know, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, 1364 01:07:24,840 --> 01:07:27,080 Speaker 2: and the black rock. You know, just large pools of 1365 01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:30,720 Speaker 2: capital suddenly get interested in having it as a reserve 1366 01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:33,840 Speaker 2: as a product. Uh, and maybe it's not great, but 1367 01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:36,440 Speaker 2: that's just it's part of a monetization of an asset. 1368 01:07:38,040 --> 01:07:40,360 Speaker 2: But I, you know, I proactively then go out and 1369 01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:44,840 Speaker 2: invest in say privacy technologies or self custodial technologies. Uh, 1370 01:07:45,040 --> 01:07:48,840 Speaker 2: focusing more on these other countries or other markets or 1371 01:07:49,160 --> 01:07:52,760 Speaker 2: you know, ways that I think is preferable to hold bitcoin. 1372 01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:55,200 Speaker 2: I think that it has been stress tested, like for example, 1373 01:07:55,560 --> 01:07:58,600 Speaker 2: during the Canadian trucker protest when they try to then 1374 01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:01,800 Speaker 2: you know, black this bitcoin address to the grafter them. 1375 01:08:01,800 --> 01:08:03,439 Speaker 2: That was kind of a stress test to say, okay, 1376 01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:06,880 Speaker 2: what can we have done better next time? Mount Gox 1377 01:08:06,960 --> 01:08:09,080 Speaker 2: was a stress test. It helped us bring you know, 1378 01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:12,080 Speaker 2: like hardware, wallets and things like that. Every time there's 1379 01:08:12,120 --> 01:08:14,360 Speaker 2: like you know, when China banned bitcoin mining, you know, 1380 01:08:14,360 --> 01:08:16,439 Speaker 2: they had multiple failed bands and one of them finally 1381 01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:20,120 Speaker 2: kind of stuck and it actually helped decentralize mining a 1382 01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:22,880 Speaker 2: little bit more than it already was, and some mining 1383 01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:26,160 Speaker 2: re emerged in China. Anyway, So bitcoin does go through 1384 01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:30,080 Speaker 2: these challenges over time. So far, it's been successful at 1385 01:08:30,160 --> 01:08:33,599 Speaker 2: being anti fragile when it faces them, and I think 1386 01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:36,160 Speaker 2: this is yet another one. This one comes with both 1387 01:08:36,200 --> 01:08:39,000 Speaker 2: pros and cons. It's good for price and liquidity, which 1388 01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:42,240 Speaker 2: can be good for eventually for volatility, but it also 1389 01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:43,960 Speaker 2: comes with you know a lot of people just kind 1390 01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:47,120 Speaker 2: of get trapped into walled gardens. And I think that 1391 01:08:47,160 --> 01:08:50,559 Speaker 2: this is just it's another phase that bitcoin was destined 1392 01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,360 Speaker 2: to go through should it ever reach this level, which 1393 01:08:53,400 --> 01:08:54,880 Speaker 2: is what it reached now. And to be clear, I 1394 01:08:54,880 --> 01:08:57,280 Speaker 2: don't think that bitcoin needs a spotty TF and I 1395 01:08:57,280 --> 01:09:00,519 Speaker 2: think that if a spotty theft never comes, I still 1396 01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:03,560 Speaker 2: think there's going to be a bitcoin bull cycle. I 1397 01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:05,720 Speaker 2: think it's going to be heavily tied to global liquidity, 1398 01:09:06,680 --> 01:09:09,040 Speaker 2: and its tied to like the Hoddler wave. So basically 1399 01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:13,439 Speaker 2: during bear markets, the strong hands keep accumulating coins and 1400 01:09:13,479 --> 01:09:15,479 Speaker 2: then you get a having and then just you know, 1401 01:09:15,800 --> 01:09:17,680 Speaker 2: the supplies like gets very tight. So it only takes 1402 01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,960 Speaker 2: this tiny spark of new demand to really kind of 1403 01:09:21,000 --> 01:09:23,439 Speaker 2: lift the price neck. So I think that regardless to 1404 01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:25,880 Speaker 2: whether a spot bitcoin ETF comes, I think we're going 1405 01:09:26,120 --> 01:09:29,759 Speaker 2: eventually have another cycle. The spot ETF can just potentially 1406 01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:34,400 Speaker 2: accelerate or magnify that cycle, and that has some pros 1407 01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:37,080 Speaker 2: and cons, but I think it's mostly pros in the 1408 01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:40,920 Speaker 2: sense that one it's inevitable, and two, any higher level 1409 01:09:40,960 --> 01:09:45,400 Speaker 2: of liquidity and size is good for the overall network, 1410 01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:48,639 Speaker 2: especially for people that ironically not in those walled gardens, 1411 01:09:49,760 --> 01:09:52,400 Speaker 2: that are still benefiting from the stability and liquidity and 1412 01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:55,920 Speaker 2: market size and price action that those walled gardens are 1413 01:09:55,960 --> 01:09:56,839 Speaker 2: giving the whole network. 1414 01:09:57,640 --> 01:10:01,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. Wow, there's a there's a lot there, but we'll 1415 01:10:01,760 --> 01:10:03,240 Speaker 1: end it. We'll end it with that. I know we've 1416 01:10:03,240 --> 01:10:05,720 Speaker 1: gone a long time. It was pretty interesting to see 1417 01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,360 Speaker 1: Larry Fink come out and say that people are using 1418 01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:10,960 Speaker 1: it to fly to safety. So we're starting to see 1419 01:10:10,960 --> 01:10:15,240 Speaker 1: that shift for sure for everyone listening. You talked about 1420 01:10:15,479 --> 01:10:17,760 Speaker 1: investing into some of these privacy companies and stuff. I 1421 01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:21,640 Speaker 1: know with EGO Death Capital, which is investing in that. 1422 01:10:22,080 --> 01:10:24,000 Speaker 1: I of course have the big one Opportunity Fund. We're 1423 01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:26,600 Speaker 1: investing into that. So we're both trying to build the 1424 01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:30,080 Speaker 1: world that we want in a way for everyone listening, 1425 01:10:30,200 --> 01:10:32,320 Speaker 1: check out Broken Money. We'll make sure we link to 1426 01:10:32,320 --> 01:10:34,439 Speaker 1: that in the show notes down below. And Lynn Alden 1427 01:10:34,520 --> 01:10:36,360 Speaker 1: I subscribed to our newsletter, will link to that down 1428 01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:39,439 Speaker 1: below as well. Anything else that you want to let 1429 01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:40,200 Speaker 1: people know about. 1430 01:10:40,520 --> 01:10:43,519 Speaker 2: Now, that's it. Check out Broken Money and hopefully we 1431 01:10:43,560 --> 01:10:47,400 Speaker 2: can do our little part to kind of push back 1432 01:10:47,439 --> 01:10:51,200 Speaker 2: on the financial oppression and the misinformation that's out there 1433 01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:53,200 Speaker 2: and just kind of help shape the world in some 1434 01:10:53,280 --> 01:10:55,320 Speaker 2: tiny way, hopefully in a better direction. 1435 01:10:56,200 --> 01:10:57,599 Speaker 1: All right, Thanks, Lynn, appreciate it.