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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're sitting.

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Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown. We see most gambles when they

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Speaker 3: go to gamble, they go to Swayn.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible being bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 5: You want to.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 6: We are presented by our friends at bet MGM, the

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Speaker 6: King of sports books. We are here for NFL Week

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Speaker 6: fourteen Best Bets. My name is Brendan Glasheen, joined by

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Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson, who was kind enough to fill in and

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Speaker 6: host last week.

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Speaker 4: We left Brandon behind.

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Speaker 6: Luke Swayin is back Vegas refund and the Touchdown Better

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Speaker 6: returns Jill Gallant.

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Speaker 4: That is the crew for today.

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Speaker 6: You can find the video version of this podcast and

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Speaker 6: all of our shows on the Action Networks YouTube page.

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Speaker 6: Once you're there, hit subscribe, give this video alike. We

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Speaker 6: also appreciate the five star ratings and reviews on Apple Spotify.

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Speaker 6: Wherever you listen to Action Network content, don't forget you

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Speaker 6: can follow these guys individually in the free, award winning

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Speaker 6: Action Network app for all the bets they give out

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Speaker 6: today anything else they might be on futures perspective, and

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Speaker 6: Brandon's big in the futures market as well. You can

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Speaker 6: also find a link in the bio below, podcast or

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Speaker 6: video to the Action Network discord server in this episode

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Speaker 6: description if you want to hop in and chat it

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Speaker 6: up with our Action experts and other gamblers. Last week,

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Speaker 6: another five hundred plus week for the podcast five and

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Speaker 6: four and week thirteen. Eight straight weeks at five hundred

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Speaker 6: are better, So we are all in for the year

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Speaker 6: now sixty six and sixty one when you include look

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Speaker 6: aheads from Brandon as well. Okay, Brandon, let's go Week

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Speaker 6: fourteen best bet number one?

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Speaker 4: What do you have for us?

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Speaker 3: All right, I'm going to Baltimore. Give me the Ravens

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Speaker 3: minus seven against the Rams. And I like the Rams too.

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Speaker 3: They're fun. The offense is looking good, but I think

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Speaker 3: people are just getting a little too ahead of themselves.

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Speaker 3: They blew up the Cardinals. Yay, the Cardinals are not

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Speaker 3: any good. They beat the Browns thirty six to nineteen,

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Speaker 3: but it really should have been tied in the fourth

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Speaker 3: quarter against all the Browns backups, even Miles Garrett basically

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Speaker 3: going through Cardio out there and didn't do a whole

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Speaker 3: lot with his injury. They should have tied up twenty

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Speaker 3: to twenty, they missed extra point. They browns it up

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Speaker 3: at the end. That's the Rams. They're winning games lately,

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Speaker 3: but I think we're getting a little too excited about

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Speaker 3: them with the wild card race. The offense is good,

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Speaker 3: they're fun. Offense is worse on the road though, they're

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Speaker 3: nineteenth dvaway on the road versus sixth at home. And

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Speaker 3: the defense is still the clear Week link on the

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Speaker 3: field in this game. Baltimore's offense is good. Rams offense

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Speaker 3: is skilled, Baltimore's defense is great. Rams defense just kind

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Speaker 3: of lacks talent still, right, Like you pretty much can't

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Speaker 3: name guys other than Aaron Donald on the defense, a

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Speaker 3: couple other young guys that started to come around there,

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Speaker 3: but it still is the clear Week link, other than,

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Speaker 3: of course the special teams who the Rams are dead last,

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Speaker 3: and specially teams versus John Harbough that's probably going to

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Speaker 3: come into play here too. So I think the Ravens

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Speaker 3: offense just kind of gets what it wants in this game.

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Speaker 3: And Baltimore has also a top ten pass rush against

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Speaker 3: a poor Rams offensive line. So I think that gets

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Speaker 3: to the Rams a little bit. And then look you've

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Speaker 3: seen we've got all sorts of these crazy totals this week.

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Speaker 3: Right We've got a thirty, and we've got two thirty

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Speaker 3: point five, we got a bunch in the thirties. It's

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Speaker 3: all this weather impacted. This game right now looks like

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Speaker 3: the biggest weather impacted game. Looks like thirteen million hour wins,

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Speaker 3: fifty percent of rain. That to me is the perfect

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Speaker 3: setup for Baltimore. Goss Edwards, power, run, great defense, just

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Speaker 3: control the ball, pound the rock twenty three to ten

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Speaker 3: sort of when Matt Stafford when there's ten mile an

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Speaker 3: hour wind or more, seven to fourteen to one against

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Speaker 3: the spread thirty three percent. This is not Stafford weather.

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Speaker 3: Remember he played in the in Detroit inside for so long.

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Speaker 3: Angelus obviously safe. They're not a good spot for him.

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Speaker 3: And November forward when Stafford plays a team over five

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Speaker 3: hundred seventeen thirty seven and two against the spread thirty

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Speaker 3: one percent cover rate for his career and that has

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Speaker 3: held up really with the Rams still too. So I

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Speaker 3: just think it's a good spot for the Ravens. They're

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Speaker 3: on a buy at home coming on extra rest. The

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Speaker 3: Rams just had to play against the Browns at physical defense,

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Speaker 3: Harbough after buy sixty percent cover rate McVeigh and Stafford

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Speaker 3: facing teams off of a bye combined six fifteen and

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Speaker 3: a one twenty nine percent cover rate for them. So

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Speaker 3: give me the Ravens minus seven. Very good.

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Speaker 6: That's pretty self explanatory. I still don't really get what

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Speaker 6: the Rams are, like, I know, like you said, when

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Speaker 6: they're at home and they got Pooka going, I know,

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Speaker 6: Cooper Cup at a late touchdown, like they're just so

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Speaker 6: Jeckyll and Hide.

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Speaker 4: I can understand this.

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Speaker 6: I think it's a pretty generous number, honestly at minus seven,

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Speaker 6: so fully understand that. And I noticed two Ravens first half.

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Speaker 6: They're really good. The books have caught up on that,

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Speaker 6: right four and a half. I understand one of them

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Speaker 6: a full game, go the touchdown.

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Speaker 4: Very good.

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Speaker 6: Okay, Luke swayn Vegas refund your first best bet for

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Speaker 6: Week fourteen.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Bears getting three and a

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Speaker 1: half hosting the Lions at home, which this one. And

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Speaker 1: I really I think I'm just probably one of the

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Speaker 1: higher people on this Bears team, and I think I

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Speaker 1: brought up the quote a couple of weeks ago, and

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Speaker 1: it really has stuck with me, where like this Bears

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Speaker 1: team really feels like the Lions of two years ago

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Speaker 1: where they weren't really winning games, but they just continued

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Speaker 1: to cover and try I guess you could say try

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Speaker 1: hard every single week. And this Bears defense is getting

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Speaker 1: better and better every single week, it seems like the

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Speaker 1: last couple And they are coming off of buy.

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Speaker 2: So they should be healthy.

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Speaker 1: And this is a big revenge divisional game where I

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Speaker 1: want to say, two weeks or three weeks ago, they

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Speaker 1: were in Detroit and they were winning that entire game,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, the Lions came back on

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, like I think, down ten plus. So

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Speaker 1: this is just a a Bears revenge spot. Getting Jared

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Speaker 1: Goff in outdoors where the weather was looking pretty bad,

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Speaker 1: but actually within the last like twenty four hours, I

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Speaker 1: think it's cleared up where the total came down into

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Speaker 1: the thirties. I think it was like thirty nine, and

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Speaker 1: since his weather's cleared up, it's back up to forty four,

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Speaker 1: which still it's gonna be cold.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be outdoors. Jared Goff is notoriously.

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Speaker 1: Bad and outdoor games, and he just hasn't looked himself

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Speaker 1: the last few weeks, and two weeks ago he had I.

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Speaker 2: Think it was three or four turnovers. In the week

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Speaker 2: before he.

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Speaker 1: Had two, and you could see last week against the

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Speaker 1: Saints that they definitely should have lost that game if

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Speaker 1: Car didn't get hurt. Their neutral pass rate was the

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Speaker 1: lowest it has been all season, which tells me that

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Speaker 1: this Lion's coaching staff is not trusting golf like they

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Speaker 1: have in the past, just purely based off of the turnovers.

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Speaker 1: And then you have a Detroit defense that is looking

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Speaker 1: like one of the worst in the league right now.

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Speaker 1: They're thirtieth in EPA. I think they're twenty fourth in

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Speaker 1: success rate. They gave a they had a twenty point

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Speaker 1: lead on the Saints last week and they stormed back

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Speaker 1: and gave up I think it was like twenty eight

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Speaker 1: points or something like that, where every week they're just

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Speaker 1: giving up points and Fields is looking a lot better.

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's their quarterback of the future, but

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Speaker 1: right now he's twelfth in EPA. So I'm just going

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Speaker 1: to take a Bears team that I'm pretty high on

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Speaker 1: right now that They're one of the first teams I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at every week getting three and a half at

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Speaker 1: home with revenge.

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Speaker 2: So give me the Bears.

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Speaker 6: That was the game you're referencing was the week before

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Speaker 6: Thanksgiving when the Bears and Lions played. That was the

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Speaker 6: first game back for Justin Fields coming back from the injury,

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Speaker 6: replacing Baijen at quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Two games played.

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Speaker 6: Since you mentioned the head to head with the Lions,

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Speaker 6: then they had to buy very good. Bears might be

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Speaker 6: undervalued in the market. Jill Gallant. Not only do you

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Speaker 6: bet touchdowns, my friend, You'll come on here and you'll

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Speaker 6: explore the interception world. And that is where you're going

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Speaker 6: with your first one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, And I'm going right to the Bengals cold scheme

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Speaker 5: and I feel like this is a nice little Bilo spot.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to take Jake for an interception at minus

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Speaker 5: one oh five. And obviously the feel good aspect coming

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Speaker 5: out of that game was not necessarily what happened to

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Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence, but was how Browning looked thirty two for

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Speaker 5: thirty seven throwing the ball. But again, Browning is still

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Speaker 5: a backup. He should not be getting these type of

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Speaker 5: int odds. He was minus one sixty five in his

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Speaker 5: first start against the Steelers with Burrow out, then last

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Speaker 5: week was minus one seventy five against the Jaguars. So

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Speaker 5: for me all the way to go to minus one

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Speaker 5: oh five, that's a little too much of an overcorrection here,

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Speaker 5: especially facing a Colts defense that again, it's shown defensive

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Speaker 5: flashes over the last month. During this four game win streak,

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Speaker 5: they've held opponents to less than twenty points per game

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Speaker 5: on average. They forced five interceptions in those games, and

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Speaker 5: the Colts they're also top ten in interception rate per

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Speaker 5: drop back at two point nine percent, and they're also

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Speaker 5: top ten and passes defended. Another aspect too about this

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Speaker 5: Colts defense, second in sacks. They are going to get

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Speaker 5: some pressure in that pocket, and like a lot of

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Speaker 5: outdoor games this week, there's gonna be some rain and

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Speaker 5: wind in Cincy. So I feel like right now Browning

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Speaker 5: should probably be around minus one forty for an interception,

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Speaker 5: But because of how clean he looked against that Jacksonville defense,

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Speaker 5: we're getting a little bit of a premium here. We're

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Speaker 5: getting it around minus one oh five. So Jake Browning

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Speaker 5: interception minus one oh five. I love this bet for

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Speaker 5: Week fourteen.

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Speaker 2: This this, this calls tol Island so underrated.

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Speaker 1: Like I think they're like probably a top two or

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Speaker 1: three unit in the lague right now, and they are

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Speaker 1: going to bring chaos to Browning.

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Speaker 2: So I totally agree with that.

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Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 4: Use bonus code Action when signing.

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Speaker 6: Up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars paid back

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Speaker 6: users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 6: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 4: All right, onto the next round of picks.

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Speaker 6: You know, typically when Brandon Anderson handicaps a game and

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Speaker 6: involves bad quarterback play, he'll just steer away, especially if

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Speaker 6: he's backing the team with the bad quarterbacks. But now

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Speaker 6: with Desmond Rudder taking on Baker Mayfield, you actually will

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Speaker 6: probably mention quarterbacks when you give this next one.

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Speaker 3: I will, because in this case, the bad quarterbacks I

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Speaker 3: think help the cap. I'm gonna take the under under

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Speaker 3: forty one in Bucks at Falcons. Look, we get what

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Speaker 3: at the light. We get the entire NFC South playing

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Speaker 3: each other in division matchups this weekend. There's Carolina and

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Speaker 3: New Orleans two. This is why we still have to

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Speaker 3: pay attention to these divisions? Is fine? Give them a

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Speaker 3: seven seed, Like there's no reason one of these teams

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Speaker 3: beginning a home game in the playoffs against probably the

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Speaker 3: Cowboys is ridiculous. Anyway, I was thinking about taking the

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Speaker 3: Bucks here. I think that they honestly look better than

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Speaker 3: the Falcons. They're better in DVAA and offense and defense

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Speaker 3: and special teams, and I just tie myself into the

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Speaker 3: under instead because really I just don't believe in a

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Speaker 3: whole lot in this game. I think the best unit

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Speaker 3: on the field is probably Tampa Bay's defense. Their run

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Speaker 3: d has pretty much always been solid when Vitavea is

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Speaker 3: out there, anything kind of hold their own against Franklin

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Speaker 3: Atlanta attack that has scared nobody all season. There are

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Speaker 3: some injuries here. I think the injury news has gone

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Speaker 3: well for both teams this week. Well for the defenses.

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Speaker 3: Levante David, one of the linebackers for the Bucks is practicing.

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Speaker 3: Devin White hasn't yet, but if I only get one,

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Speaker 3: Levante David's the one I want in this game. He's

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Speaker 3: way better than Devin White this season, especially way better

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Speaker 3: against the run. That matters in this particular matchup, because

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Speaker 3: that's pretty much all the Falcons try to do, so

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Speaker 3: I like them there. The pass rush for Tampa has

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Speaker 3: been trending up. Atlanta's pass blocking isn't great and Bucks

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Speaker 3: defense on the road third in DVA versus only twenty

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Speaker 3: first at home, so those splits can be a little finicky,

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Speaker 3: but goes in our favor here. So Tampa Bay's defense

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Speaker 3: looking pretty good. Both teams defense have struggled against the

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Speaker 3: pass lately. But okay, there's the quarterbacks now. Desmond Raider

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Speaker 3: not really that worried about you. Baker Mayfield has been

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Speaker 3: pretty good this year, to be honest, but he's banged up.

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Speaker 3: He's had moments. Mike Evans is the one real threat here.

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Speaker 3: Ajterrell has been in concussion protocol but's practicing this week,

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Speaker 3: so I'm hoping Ajterrell plays. That's Atlanta's stud lockdown corner.

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Speaker 3: You want him against Mike Evans. If he's not out there,

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Speaker 3: Evans could put up another one of those huge games.

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Speaker 3: But then I've got a bunch of numbers here for

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Speaker 3: the under. Todd Bowles Tampa Bay rode unders for him

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Speaker 3: for his career thirty and seventeen sixty four percent. That's

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Speaker 3: the second most profitable coach in our system. Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 3: When the total is below forty four twenty and nine

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Speaker 3: to the under sixty nine percent, he's the second most

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Speaker 3: profitable as well. Week fourteen or later, division matchups total

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Speaker 3: forty to forty seven, it is fifty six percent of

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Speaker 3: the under home favored under a touchdown fifty seven percent

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Speaker 3: to the under. And then this season, Falcons are eight

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Speaker 3: and four to the under under thirty nine points a

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Speaker 3: game in their games. Bocks are eight and four to

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Speaker 3: the under under forty points in their games. And then

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Speaker 3: as I was searching, I found the stat. So far

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Speaker 3: this year we've had six games in the division in

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Speaker 3: the NFC South, the terrible awful NFC South, not one

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Speaker 3: game has hit forty points. Yet, get this division out

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Speaker 3: of here. They're averaging thirty five and a half points

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Speaker 3: a game and the lowest total of all of them.

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Speaker 3: Box Falcons twenty nine points first time around, give me

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Speaker 3: the Bucks and the Falcons under forty one.

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Speaker 6: Wow, that's quite the stat. All the head to heads,

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Speaker 6: so all the teams say that one more time. All

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Speaker 6: the teams have their combined averages.

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Speaker 3: All Friends, Box, Saints, Panthers. That's the division. They have

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Speaker 3: played some combination of each other six times so far

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Speaker 3: this season, and the highest score in any of those

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Speaker 3: games has been thirty nine. Not one division matchup has

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Speaker 3: even cracked the almighty forty point barrier. Get the NFC

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Speaker 3: South out of here.

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Speaker 4: Wow, Okay, excellent.

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Speaker 6: So we were going to pick a Kansas City and Buffalo.

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Speaker 6: That's one of the marquee matchups of the weekend, and Luke,

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Speaker 6: you are turning to the desperate Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 4: They need this game. Why do you like Buffalo for

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Speaker 4: your second one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Buffalo right now. Plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think it opened at three, which would have been

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Speaker 1: awesome to get, which didn't last very long. It just

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Speaker 1: continues to come down, which I think has a lot

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Speaker 1: to do with teasers, which the Bills are a great

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Speaker 1: teaser leg as well this week, but this is a

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Speaker 1: Bills team coming fresh off of buye who I really

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Speaker 1: don't think any team needed a bye week more just

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Speaker 1: in general and health, specifically on their defense going against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs team that I don't think. I'm assuming every

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Speaker 1: one of our listeners and all of us have been

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Speaker 1: watching the Chiefs and they just aren't right. Whether it's

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Speaker 1: just Travis Kelcey being old or injured, I think is

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Speaker 1: probably both. Outside of him, there's just nothing, and they

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Speaker 1: struggle to complete a pass further than five yards. I'm

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Speaker 1: going against a Bills team that is extremely desperate, probably

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Speaker 1: should have won the Eagles game, which that was that

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Speaker 1: game going to OT, I totally forgot that they don't

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Speaker 1: kick extra points and the push. I've never been so

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Speaker 1: happy about a push. But this Bill's team is. It's

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Speaker 1: definitely a trendy team this week, specifically in the futures market,

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Speaker 1: which I don't disagree with at all. But this is

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Speaker 1: just a Bills team that is going against the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: team that I don't see it. I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: going to be fixing anything, and their defense has been fantastic,

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Speaker 1: but they don't have Tranquil, They're not gonna have Bolton,

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna have Brian Cook, where three starters they

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Speaker 1: might not even have Donovan Smith, which are all four

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Speaker 1: starters and above average starters going against a Bills team

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Speaker 1: off of buy with all of the weapons in the world,

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Speaker 1: should be healthier and have historically played very well against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: They're a great teaser leg as well. All six of

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Speaker 2: the Bills' losses this week this year have.

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Speaker 1: Been by six or less points, so you can tease

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Speaker 1: them right up through the key number of seven, and

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Speaker 1: I think that.

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Speaker 2: Would be a great teaser leg. But I'll take the

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Speaker 2: Bills plus.

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Speaker 3: One and a half.

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Speaker 4: It's fair.

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Speaker 6: I mean, Joe Ryan now running the offense. They look

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Speaker 6: against the Jets, they presented a running game. They alleviated

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Speaker 6: Josh Allen. It wasn't Josh Allen dependent. I say all

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Speaker 6: that because Jill's second pick. He actually probably wouldn't mind

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Speaker 6: Josh Allen being the guy a week after week to

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Speaker 6: save the day. Josh Allen, Jill is someone I totally

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Speaker 6: understand both sides here, but Jill, I tend to really

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Speaker 6: agree with where you're going to go with your next one.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm very much a Josh Allen anytime touchdown pot committed,

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Speaker 5: especially last week, I did cash in, pardon me, prior

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Speaker 5: to the buy, I hit a seventeen to one for

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Speaker 5: his two touchdowns against the Eagles. So I like this

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Speaker 5: bet against the Chiefs because he has scored an eight

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Speaker 5: of twelve games. He leads the Bills with nineteen red

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Speaker 5: zone carries. As you alluded to those rushing issues that

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Speaker 5: they've had, he kind of takes the mantle and goes

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Speaker 5: assertive when they get into the red zone. And why

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Speaker 5: we also like Allen in the spot is the Chiefs

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Speaker 5: are twenty eighth and dv away versus the run, but

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Speaker 5: fifth and Dvoa versus the past. Now that ladder Dvay staff.

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Speaker 5: That may not matter as much facing an offense like

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Speaker 5: the Bills, who can move the ball pretty officially against

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Speaker 5: any type of defense, But when they get into those

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Speaker 5: tight spots inside the ten yard line, that could be

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Speaker 5: the difference between the Bills scoring a touchdown and settling

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Speaker 5: for a field goal. So if we're on third down,

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Speaker 5: I could definitely see Josh Allen just tucking and running

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Speaker 5: it and just bulldozing his way into the end zone

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Speaker 5: like he did against the Eagles twice. Also, again, the

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Speaker 5: Bills are pretty much in must win territory the rest

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Speaker 5: of the way. I don't really like the bet on

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Speaker 5: touchdown scores based on like motivation, but this is the

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Speaker 5: ultimate motivation spot. It's going to be like a playoff

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Speaker 5: game pretty much every game the rest of the way,

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Speaker 5: and based on how he ran the ball versus the Eagles,

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Speaker 5: I thought this was going to be around plus one fifty.

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Speaker 5: So around plus one eighty I think is still pretty

377
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Speaker 5: good value for Josh Allen to score in any time

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Speaker 5: touchdown versus the Chiefs.

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Speaker 6: I don't think there are picks that go against each other.

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Speaker 6: I think they need I think they need Allen to

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Speaker 6: do what he does. And I'm not sure I off

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Speaker 6: a bye. I don't know how confident I am and

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Speaker 6: Sean McDermott to get this right and Joe Ryan, but

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Speaker 6: it truly is Sean or but show as we know,

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Speaker 6: as the head coach, did, Josh.

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Speaker 1: Literally go nuclear every single week for them to make

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. And like the Bills could be the second

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Speaker 1: best team in the league and they still might not

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Speaker 1: make the playoffs, but if they do, it will be

390
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Speaker 1: totally on his back, which will be him scoring touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: And Brandon you're you're going to join the party on

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen.

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Speaker 3: I am, so you've heard this one on the pod before.

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Speaker 3: The first prop I look for whenever the Bills play

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Speaker 3: a big game, is Josh Allen rushing yards? So give

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Speaker 3: me the Josh Allen over thirty and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 3: This is Jill kind of just made the case for me.

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Speaker 3: They save Josh Allen's legs for these big games. If

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Speaker 3: you look at the staffs, look at the splits, and

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Speaker 3: you kind of have to do a manual lean. Okay,

401
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 3: was this a big game? Did this look like a

402
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Speaker 3: team against the playoff team? Was it? You know, they're

403
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Speaker 3: playing a Washington or something. In the big games, they

404
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Speaker 3: call more designed runs with Josh Allen, those like third

405
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Speaker 3: and two sort of plays that we've all seen in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. This is a playoff game for Buffalo, and

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Speaker 3: Buffalo has used Alan Moore's scrambler this year. To Allen

408
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 3: has added more EPA per play than any quarterback on

409
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 3: scrambles by like a huge margin this year. It's part

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Speaker 3: of why his overall EPA is so high. Scrambles are

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00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:14,479
Speaker 3: even more valuable runs than designed runs because the defense

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Speaker 3: has their back turn the other direction and here comes

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen and running at you from behind. So here's

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Speaker 3: the numbers last two seasons, so that's not counting this

415
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Speaker 3: year yet. Twenty two games against non playoff opponents, Allen

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Speaker 3: averaged six and a half carries just under forty yards.

417
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Speaker 3: Sixteen games against playoff opponents almost nine carries a game

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Speaker 3: fifty three yards, and over half of those at least

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Speaker 3: forty four. So we're at thirty point five here. I

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Speaker 3: out honestly put that line like at least ten yards higher.

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Speaker 3: This season, I'm counting four games I'm gonna count as

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Speaker 3: against presumed playoff opponents. Now again, we got to kind

423
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Speaker 3: of make some assumptions here, so I'm counting Week one

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Speaker 3: against the Jets when we thought that was supposed to

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Speaker 3: be a big game for them. Aaron Rodgers, the whole

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Speaker 3: Jets hype. Four games this year against presumed playoff opponents,

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Speaker 3: eight carries forty four and a half yards. Over this number.

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Speaker 3: Three of the four the other eight games, remember they've

429
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Speaker 3: had a pretty soft schedule so far, four and a

430
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Speaker 3: half carries twenty and a half yards, so it's like

431
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Speaker 3: double this year. Basically, his numbers when he plays one

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Speaker 3: of these top teams, and we've got a real sample

433
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Speaker 3: against the Chiefs. Now, we've had five games Josh Allen

434
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Speaker 3: against this version of Mahomes and the Chiefs. Here are

435
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Speaker 3: Josh Allen's rushing yards in those Chiefs games thirty two,

436
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Speaker 3: fifty nine, forty two, sixty eight, and eighty eight, averaging

437
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: over nine carries a game fifty eight yards. He's had

438
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 3: at least seven carries at least thirty two yards every

439
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,360
Speaker 3: one of those games. Luke, you mentioned Drew Twainqwell, Nick

440
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 3: Bolton both out. Those are the linebackers. Those are the

441
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 3: guys that have to try to contain and tackle Josh Allen.

442
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: So that's also a key part here as well. I

443
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 3: just think this is a game where, like all of

444
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 3: us are saying, this is everything for the Bills. They're

445
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,679
Speaker 3: fighting in the spot, Josh Allen's going to have to

446
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 3: make some plays with his arm, with his legs, with

447
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 3: his brain, like every part of Josh Allen's body is

448
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 3: gonna have to make some plays in this game. So

449
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: I love the over thirty and a half. And while

450
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 3: we're here because it's me and you mentioned my futures,

451
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 3: and I love the alternates as well. Let me just

452
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 3: rapid fire a couple other ones for you. If you

453
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 3: like the Josh Allen angle, you can do fifty yards

454
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 3: plus three twenty seventy five yards plus fourteen twenty five.

455
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 3: So that's a little escalator taste if you want it.

456
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 3: Kansas City bottom ten against wide receiver two. Don't forget

457
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 3: this is the team Gabe Davis lit up in that

458
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: playoff game. Eight catches, two hundred yards and four touchdowns.

459
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: Eighty yards and a touchdown is fourteen to one. I

460
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 3: like that one a lot, and I like the Bills.

461
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: Like Luke said, I wanted the plus three. I was

462
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 3: hoping we get the plus three and a half and

463
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 3: then went the other way, sim investing the Bills by

464
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: playing futures. I like them here, sorry, Jill. I like

465
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 3: them against the Cowboys next week. And if both of

466
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 3: those happen in Miami falters a little bit in their schedule.

467
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 3: Buffalo can still beat Miami in the final week for

468
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 3: the division seventeen to one Buffalo Division. And if they

469
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 3: do fifty to one, Josh Allen MVP. So those are

470
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 3: some bonus picks for you for this pod. Josh Allen

471
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,719
Speaker 3: over thirty and a half rushing yards got it.

472
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 6: So it's one of those weekends for me when I

473
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,239
Speaker 6: open the Action Network app and I'm gonna scroll and go,

474
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 6: is Brandon the only one using the Action app today?

475
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: Oh?

476
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 4: Wait a minute, there's somebody else o Car doing brand

477
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 4: and stuff.

478
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 1: No, that Josh Allen MVP angle like I took it,

479
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: I think a week or two ago, where you hear

480
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 1: about the trends that like every MVP of the last

481
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 1: ten years or further has been like a one or

482
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 1: two seed, which if they win the division, I guess

483
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: they yeah, they probably wouldn't.

484
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: But this year is totally different.

485
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,959
Speaker 1: Like this year, like around this time, we pretty there

486
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 1: is like a favorite in the MVP race. Right now

487
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 1: we have three guys at plus three hundred and then

488
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 1: like I think the fourth is jailing at plus eight hundred,

489
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: which it's been that because usually the guy making the

490
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: one or two seed is the heavy favorite. Now we

491
00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 1: just don't have that, And I just think this is

492
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 1: a total outline year where there's a case for every

493
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 1: MVP right now, and there's also a case for guys

494
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 1: who jump leap frog down where the Bills Dolphins game

495
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: could be for MVP.

496
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: Well, and that's the thing is with the schedule, you

497
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 3: got Josh Allen on big national TV spots against the

498
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 3: Chiefs and the Cowboys and the Dolphins, And if you

499
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 3: took records away and we only could look at stats

500
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 3: right now for the season, Josh Allen will probably be

501
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 3: unanimous MVP, like he's leading in most of the stats.

502
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 3: He's leading up near the top and the epas and

503
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 3: Cpoe's and all those things. The only reason he's not

504
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 3: early in the picture is because of the six and six,

505
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: which matters. But if they close on a five game

506
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: winning streak, if there's not really a clear MVP, no

507
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 3: one's gonna want necessarily vote for Brock Purty, who's the

508
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 3: leader right now. I think he's in the mix, But

509
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: I just think fifty to one is too long for

510
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 3: a guy this good who's playing like an MVP, and

511
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 3: we're all betting him like an MVP in this pod,

512
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 3: we're betting him on the road as a short dog

513
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 3: against Pat Mahomes. Holy cow, that is not the spot

514
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 3: to go. But that's how good we feel about how

515
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 3: Allen and the Bills are playing, So I think it's

516
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 3: a good spot to back them in multiple ways.

517
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 6: So if you parlay the Bills plus one and a

518
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 6: half Josh Allen touchdown the Allen over rushing, you get

519
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 6: around plus four hundred if that tickles your fancy. So

520
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 6: that was Brandon's third pick, Luke, Oh no, oh no,

521
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 6: Well this isn't the Broncos team of old.

522
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 4: No, I'm always saying no no, because I'm with Brandon

523
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 4: and Jill.

524
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 6: It's just bringing me back in time to like last

525
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 6: year doing that late Sunday night podcast.

526
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 4: We're doing.

527
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 5: A lot has happened this season since the frozen Pizza

528
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 5: Bowl of last year.

529
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, the last.

530
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 5: Six games, I think we've taken that pizza out of

531
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 5: the oven.

532
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 6: Now when you give this, can you help me understand

533
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 6: why Denver's an underdog in this game, because I still

534
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 6: don't really get it, but go ahead.

535
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 1: I mean, it's really just home field that they really

536
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: just don't have, which like two and a halfs I

537
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,479
Speaker 1: guess you could just say his home field and then

538
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: everyone always like says they don't have home field, which

539
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 1: there are a lot more factors that come into home

540
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 1: field than just the crowd. But yes, I'm gonna go

541
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: with the Broncos plus two and a half They're definitely

542
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: a team. I think a lot of quote unquote experts

543
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 1: are looking to fade, just purely based off of they've

544
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: gotten lucky a lot this year and the offense really

545
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: hasn't been a well world machine.

546
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 2: But again, this Chargers team is just gross.

547
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 1: Like it's like, if you watch like you watch the Chiefs,

548
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 1: that offense isn't working.

549
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 2: And then the eye.

550
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 1: Test with the Chargers, like it's just not working either.

551
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: Eckler that high ankle sprain a week one totally ruined

552
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: a season. Stale even came out today, I think, saying

553
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: that like running backs are going to earn their carries,

554
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 1: which I don't think really means anything. If anything, I

555
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: guess it motivates Eckler, but like he's just if you

556
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: watch him, he's just not himself. And then you have

557
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: really the only other weapon that they have is Keenan On,

558
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 1: which is gonna be going against probably the best defensive

559
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: player in the league in my opinion, Patrick certain Actually,

560
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 1: if I was drafting a fantasy team, he would be

561
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: my first pick for defense. He might not be the best,

562
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: he'd be my first pick going against Keenan Allen and

563
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 1: this Broncos seem just I'll take Sean Payton over Staley

564
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 1: any day now. Plus two and a half definitely, definitely,

565
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: Like you don't need to jump on this right now.

566
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 1: There are some threes out there. There are threes that

567
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 1: are starting to show. Which three in a game like this,

568
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: going against a Chargers team that just continues to play

569
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 1: close games, I think is a.

570
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 2: Lot more value.

571
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: It's obviously extremely valuable, but a lot more valuable in

572
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 1: this game.

573
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: So I haven't bet it yet.

574
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for the three, but I don't get a three,

575
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: which you can find right now, honestly anywhere. I'm just

576
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 1: gonna take the two and a half or just tease

577
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 1: them up, which Broncos and Bills would be a great

578
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 1: two team teasers as well, But I'll just take a

579
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 1: Broncos team that I just I just have nothing positive

580
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: to say about this Chargers team, and I'll go against

581
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: the grain and take them again and hope they get lucky.

582
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: I guess, But Broncos plus two and a half, We

583
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: wait for the three, right. Last thing I want to

584
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: say is Brandon gave into futures. We gave a future

585
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: out a couple weeks ago. Will Anderson defensive Rookie of

586
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: the Year, which was twenty five twenty five to Wine

587
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: at the time, which now is plus four hundred, and

588
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: I would still take that. So if you don't have

589
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: any Will Anderson, I think you can definitely get involved.

590
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: Plus four hundred on one sportsbook, it's plus three hundred elsewhere.

591
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: Will Anderson is surging right now. I think he has

592
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 1: a top I think he has like the third best

593
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 1: pass rush win rate in the last like ten years.

594
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: Right now, he gets Zach Wilson this week against the Jets,

595
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,239
Speaker 1: which is probably the best offensive line he can go

596
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: against in terms of him eating. Then he gets Will

597
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: Levis next week, which has another god awful offensive line,

598
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 1: and then the last in the last week, he has

599
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 1: the Browns. So whether it's Joe Flacco or what Flacco

600
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 1: is in, like I think will be Flacco because I

601
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: think he's going to continue to start.

602
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 2: But which is even better.

603
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: So like, I honestly think Will Anderson be tied as

604
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: a favorite right now. Definitely had a Witherspoon in even

605
00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: the favorite, so I would definitely take it a plus

606
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 1: four him.

607
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 6: I wasn't sure if we would get into that, but

608
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 6: I'm glad you brought it up if you've been listening.

609
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 6: We don't just give out the weekly sides and totals

610
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 6: best bets. We mix in some other stuff too. All right, Jill,

611
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 6: take us home. You're gonna stay in the same game.

612
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 4: Denver and Los Angeles.

613
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: Yeah.

614
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 5: Last year when we used to cover the Broncos, this

615
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 5: guy couldn't get open the offense. Passing offense in general

616
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 5: was just terrible. But this year he is probably a

617
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 5: top five wide receiver just based on production and touchdown output.

618
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,959
Speaker 5: And that's Cortland Sutton. And I'm gonna take a anytime

619
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 5: touchdown odds it's a round plus two to ten. So

620
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 5: he's got nine touchdowns this year. He's scored in nine

621
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 5: of twelve games. I think that's important to note because

622
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 5: a lot of the time you'll see these big, gaudy

623
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 5: numbers and you think, oh, we had like a three

624
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 5: touchdown game or a four touchdown game. No, no, no,

625
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 5: this is just all consistent every week. He's got fifteen

626
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 5: red zone targets. That's eighth overall in the NFL. He

627
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 5: also leads the league with eight red zone touchdowns this year.

628
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 5: So I think that's important to know because like the

629
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 5: next closest is Mark Andrews six, and then it goes

630
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 5: five and onwards. So again he is clearly Russell Wilson's

631
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 5: safety blanket because a lot of the touchdowns, if you

632
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 5: guys have watched the Broncos games this year, a lot

633
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 5: of touchdowns that he has scored has just been russelled

634
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 5: just going fuck it, something's down there somewhere and just

635
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 5: throws it and it's this improbable catch in the end

636
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 5: zone and that ends up being the difference in the game.

637
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 5: But it's also just a great matchup for the Broncos

638
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 5: pass offense because the Chargers are twenty seven, the Dvoway

639
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 5: to the pass twenty eighth and dvowaight to wide receiver one,

640
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 5: and I think it's undisputed he is wide receiver one

641
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 5: in this offense. Thirteen touchdowns to wide receivers this year.

642
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 5: That's also bottom five in the NFL. They've given up

643
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 5: six touchdowns to wide receivers just over the last four games.

644
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 5: And when you're doing some shopping around, as you should

645
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 5: for touchdown odds, his odds are ranging all over the place.

646
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 5: I see I got it at plus two to ten.

647
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 5: It's as low as plus one twenty in some spots,

648
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 5: so please shop around, don't bet at less than plus

649
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 5: two hundred. But the fact that you're getting a plus

650
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 5: two hundred value on a guy like him, who's in

651
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 5: my opini in the same world as Mike Evans right

652
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 5: now where you just can't really bet another touchdown score

653
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,719
Speaker 5: on this team because the quarterback clearly favors this option.

654
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 5: So Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown at plus two to ten

655
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 5: is my final best bet of Week fourteen.

656
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, just to chime in on this one, I actually

657
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 3: had I have Sutton plus two hundred in my Every

658
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 3: Game Every Team article coming out. That's my pick for Denver,

659
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 3: and I also have noted in there Denver plus eight

660
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 3: and a half teased up is my favorite teaser spot

661
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: of the week. So to chime in on both of those,

662
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: and to tie it back, Lukey brought up Will Anderson.

663
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: He just played these Denver Broncos last week. Five tackles,

664
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 3: two sacks, four quarterback hits. He tipped a punt that

665
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 3: led to a short field fuel goal. I think he

666
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 3: tipped an interception that led to a touchdown. That's ten

667
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 3: points that he's pretty directly responsible for in a game

668
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: I believe they won by nine. So that's Will Anderson.

669
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 3: That was his win, I thought on Sunday, and I think, yeah,

670
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: this is definitely a spot where I still see some

671
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: value on him as well.

672
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 6: Oh is just loving the island right now. He's loving

673
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 6: Texans Island this year, he sure is.

674
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: It's trending.

675
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 6: The Anderson bett and the Demico Ryans Coach of the

676
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 6: Year pick you gave out, those are both trending in

677
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 6: the in the right direction right now.

678
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 1: Can you just look at He's got the Jets this week,

679
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: Titan's next in the Browns where the Eagles have the

680
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: Cowboys this week, who might even expose them even worse.

681
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: And I don't know who the Eagles have next week,

682
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: which I think we're about to find out.

683
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 2: But all right, it just sets up too well for

684
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: loll Anderson.

685
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 6: We could do a forty minute episode on Will Anderson

686
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 6: by himself. It's kind of like the where we're at

687
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 6: with this. And they get the Seahawks next, the Philadelphia

688
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 6: Eagles and real quick, to Jill's point, the primetime games too,

689
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 6: because that's when you see any team you'll see more

690
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 6: like Denver the seventeen to nine win over the Chiefs.

691
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 4: Sutton the pass he caught Jill out of this world.

692
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 6: So shout out to Action Island and Jill's been on

693
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 6: that show plenty. Luke, you've been on there too. And

694
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 6: the other game that he played.

695
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 4: Well, I think it was the Buffalo game, the Buffalo

696
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 4: Monday Night game. Oh my gosh. Like just so you're

697
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 4: so spot on with that. When Russell's like, okay, whatever

698
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: here it goes well.

699
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,959
Speaker 5: Even last week, like he only had he only had

700
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 5: two catches, I'm pretty sure, and one of them was. Yeah,

701
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 5: two seven targets for seventy seven yards and a touchdown.

702
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: I feel like that makes every catch way more difficult

703
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: than it should be what it's worth. But he catches it,

704
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: and he's not a natural catcher, but like he just

705
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: catch it well.

706
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 5: And it's also just where the offense is too, Like

707
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 5: Jerry Judy is just kind of falling completely out of

708
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 5: favor when it comes to their offense. Adam Trupman isn't

709
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 5: really much of a threat, Javonte Williams can't really seem

710
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 5: to get anything going in this run game and the

711
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 5: run game in general for the Broncos. They've only scored

712
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 5: four rushing touchdowns all season, and they've been in the

713
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 5: last couple of weeks. Russell Wilson has two of those,

714
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 5: So yeah, we're gonna go with the passing offense. If

715
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 5: I'm going anywhere with a Broncos touchdown, Evans is a

716
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 5: great comp all right.

717
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 6: Before we go, we always get to Brandon Anderson's look ahead.

718
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 4: He's got a Week fifteen spot circled.

719
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 6: He was on the Cowboys for last week going into

720
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 6: this week Cowboys minus two and a half. We know

721
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 6: now they are three and a half. So hope you

722
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 6: jumped on that, Brandon. What are you eyeing for Week fifteen?

723
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: Yeah? Look, I have twice in a row on this

724
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 3: podcast bet against the Eagles. I am the Philadelphia slanderer

725
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 3: on my Twitter timeline right now, but I got to

726
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 3: come back the other way. I can say nice things

727
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 3: about Philadelphia. I'm gonna take the Eagles this time minus

728
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 3: four at the Seahawks. We flex that one into Monday night.

729
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 3: I think it is our first ever flexed Monday night

730
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 3: football game. And Seattle, I don't know if they're going

731
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 3: to be ready to show up for this one. They've

732
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 3: lost three games in a row. We watched it against

733
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 3: Dallas last week when Dallas had eight trips to the

734
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 3: red zone, I believe thirty three first downs like those

735
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 3: are unbelievable numbers. Offensively, I think Cowboys could have scored

736
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 3: just anything they wanted if they actually knew how to

737
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: play in the red zone. But they got the job

738
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 3: done anyway. I got Cowboys over the Eagles. Hopefully you

739
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 3: got it before the key number it's flipped at the

740
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 3: other side. Now, this one's really not a key number

741
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 3: sort of play. This is just don't think that the

742
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 3: Seahawks can handle the Eagles. Seattle is gonna play Sandfran

743
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 3: this week. They are double digit underdogs. They get destroyed

744
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 3: in that matchup, right, It is just not the game

745
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 3: for them, and for a lot of the same reasons

746
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 3: I like them here Seattle has they will be entering.

747
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 3: I believe that on a four game losing streak last

748
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 3: five games for the Seahawks twenty fourth in DVA, bottom

749
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 3: ten offense and defense. So I know we think that

750
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 3: this is a playoff team. I know they kind of

751
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 3: look the part on offense against Seattle, but the other

752
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 3: side matters too. They can't tackle anybody, right, I was

753
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 3: Seattle Island all last season they couldn't tackle, then they

754
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 3: don't really figure that problem out. Love Bobby Wagner, he's

755
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: kind of a problem at this point as well. You

756
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 3: gotta be able to tackle against Philadelphia. That's not gonna

757
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 3: go well for you if you don't tackle Jalen Hurts

758
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 3: and Doandary Swift and all these guys. Sales O line

759
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 3: has struggled. Eels pass rush should get their GINO is

760
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 3: not great against pressure. So that's another problem. Same stuff

761
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: that we're worried about in the San Francisco matchups. It's

762
00:34:56,280 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 3: coming up here against Philly. Seattle has been terrible all

763
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 3: season offense, in defense, on late downs and in the

764
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 3: red zone. Well, what's the one thing we know about

765
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 3: Philadelphia They have all those little edges on third down,

766
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,439
Speaker 3: fourth down, in the red zone like that is where

767
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 3: they absolutely hammer teams. So I just think it's a

768
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 3: good spot to back the Eagles either way. Really, if

769
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: the Cowboys beat the Eagles this week, as I still

770
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 3: expect them to, now you got Philadelphia two games losing

771
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: streak in a row they badly need this, or you

772
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 3: get the Eagles go to Dallas and win. You're not

773
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 3: getting a minus four here. Anymore. Now you're at a

774
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 3: minus six, maybe pushing seven Philadelphia. Even with all their

775
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 3: close games this season, they've covered this four point spread

776
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,719
Speaker 3: in seven of the ten wins. So I just think

777
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 3: that there's a good chance this line rises to something

778
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 3: more like six six and a half, where it probably

779
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 3: won't be playable anymore. So I'll grab it and now

780
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 3: Eagles minus four in Seattle Monday Night football.

781
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: I think it spread went up like after they watched

782
00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 1: the Niners on Thanksgiving. It went from mike seven and

783
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 1: a half to like nine and a half maybe more,

784
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 1: which they ended up covering. But if we expect the same,

785
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: then we can expect this when they go up too.

786
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Seattle San fran I believe got as high

787
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 3: as twelve and a half and then it did get

788
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 3: bet down. I think like all the trends, all the

789
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 3: everything this week says Seattle are passed based on the

790
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 3: trends except for the matchup. The matchup on the field

791
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 3: says San Francisco just like owns that matchup, So I'm

792
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 3: not really betting that particular matchup. This is kind of

793
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 3: my way of betting the Seattle potential blowout lost to

794
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,479
Speaker 3: San Francisco is grabbing this before the line perhaps rises again.

795
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 6: Okay, good stuff, fellas, you can find us again next week.

796
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 6: That will do it for the Action Network podcast for

797
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 6: our NFL Week fourteen Best Bets episode presented by BETMGM.

798
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,879
Speaker 6: If you missed the full betting preview the Sunday six

799
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 6: Pack with Ray Bond and Stucky, that episode is out now.

800
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 4: You can tune into our weekly recap as well. Monday morning.

801
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 4: Joe Galot will be there.

802
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 6: With Evan Abrams, our director of Research Media. Don't forget

803
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 6: to down thead the free award winning Action Network app

804
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 6: to see all the guys picks track your own as well,

805
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 6: and also, as I said at the top of the show,

806
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 6: check out the Action Network Discord server to chop it

807
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 6: up with experts and fellow gamblers during the games. Best

808
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 6: of luck this weekend, everybody for Luke, Jill and Brandon

809
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 6: Brendan glas Sheen. Thanks for watching and listening to the

810
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 6: Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGF.

811
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

812
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,719
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813
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,840
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