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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: Right all right, here we go. We're growing in Joe.

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Speaker 2: We're saying it's a cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to

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Speaker 2: make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: That is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the NFL Wildcard Weekend Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Flex on the Action Network Podcast. I am Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 2: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, part of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network. In this episode, we are breaking down the

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Speaker 2: players at the top of our rankings, which as always

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Speaker 2: are available at Action network dot com slash Fantasy. You're

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Speaker 2: discussing the guys we are high and lo on and

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Speaker 2: we're speculating on some player props with me is Seawn

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Speaker 2: Corner and Us Raybon. Shawn is our director of predictive

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Speaker 2: Analytics and one of the top end season fantasy football

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Speaker 2: rankers for the past half decade, and Chris is a

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Speaker 2: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network and a

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Speaker 2: cost at the Action Network show on Sirius XM Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Radio By the way, I should mention that as of

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Speaker 2: last week, Chris is also a top five Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 2: ranker for this past season. Chris, congratulations on that.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you.

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Speaker 3: Happy New Year to you guys and everybody out there,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, I'm just trying to get, like you know,

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Speaker 3: how to get a top ten finish in like you

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Speaker 3: guys on a resume, So humble by and congrats to

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Speaker 3: everybody who did their thing, and especially Justin who continues

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Speaker 3: to year in year out be in that top in

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Speaker 3: that top ten.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well you have improved since last season. I've gotten

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Speaker 2: worse as I've gone along in this contest, which is

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Speaker 2: slightly disheartening. Once again, I'm totally going to revamp my methodology.

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Speaker 2: Over the offseason. Before we hit record, we were starting

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Speaker 2: to talk about playoff fantasy formats. That's kind of where

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Speaker 2: our want to pick up this show because there are

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Speaker 2: you know, just because it's now the wildcard weekend only

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Speaker 2: four games doesn't mean that fantasy ends, and it doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean that DFS is the only way in which you

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Speaker 2: can play fantasy, although of course that is a primary way.

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Speaker 2: I want to briefly talk about some of the different

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Speaker 2: ways that people can play their fantasy games. Some of

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Speaker 2: these are formalized. You can find them on different sites.

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Speaker 2: Some of them are more informal, and you would kind

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Speaker 2: of have to do the legwork to calculate who wins,

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Speaker 2: but anyone with a spreadsheet can do that pretty easily.

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Speaker 2: So the main way you draft your team when a

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Speaker 2: player is eliminated from the playoffs. That's it in total

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Speaker 2: points wins. You can find contests like that on a

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Speaker 2: lot of different platforms. One of the other ways, and

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Speaker 2: I like this way quite a bit. I'd like to

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Speaker 2: get your feedback on this. You redraft your team each week.

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Speaker 2: It's head to head, single elimination, so there are eight

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Speaker 2: teams for the first round. You have two weeks you

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Speaker 2: have the wild card weekend, and then the divisional round.

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Speaker 2: You know, head to head. Four teams are eliminated, so

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Speaker 2: you have four teams advancing to the conference championship. Once again,

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Speaker 2: you draft your team. Two teams advance, they draft their

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Speaker 2: team for the Super Bowl. I kind of like that

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Speaker 2: format because you don't have to go through the mental

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Speaker 2: calculations of thinking about which teams are going to advance

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Speaker 2: to the next round. Although if you are a smarter

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Speaker 2: person or you know, maybe just more in tune with

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Speaker 2: what's happening. If you actually have an edge in those calculations,

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Speaker 2: maybe you don't like that type of contest because it

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Speaker 2: diminishes the skill that you have. And then also another option,

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Speaker 2: and this is more of like a DFS style. Everyone

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Speaker 2: gets full access each week to the entire player pool

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Speaker 2: and you just pick the starting lineup you like, and

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Speaker 2: then at the end of the Super Bowl total points wins.

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Speaker 2: What formats do you guys like playing, Sean, I want

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Speaker 2: to kick it to you because you said you were

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Speaker 2: up all night doing calculations and projections for a tie

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy playoff contests that's out there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I like the idea you have, but I

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Speaker 1: do prefer as many mental calculations as possible, of course,

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Speaker 1: because it requires me, like you said, being up all night,

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Speaker 1: you know, running simulations and stuff. But I do like

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Speaker 1: the playoff challenges where you know you can only pick

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Speaker 1: one player from a team, and you know the roster

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Speaker 1: sizes are typically from ten to twelve players, So I

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Speaker 1: like doing those. Like I said, I create a simwhere

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Speaker 1: I got you know, estimated point projections for each player

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Speaker 1: throughout the playoffs. I think there's some good game theory

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Speaker 1: behind it, you know, something that's you know, in a

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Speaker 1: bigger contest, it's a little bit easier to go conturn.

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Speaker 1: I think, I know, you know, the roughly all the

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Speaker 1: players that everyone's going to gravitate towards, and just making

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Speaker 1: some slight pivots will give me a huge edge in that.

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Speaker 1: So I like that. But like you said, it's you

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Speaker 1: don't want to put all your eggs in one basket.

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Speaker 1: I think with the playoffs, you should join as many

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Speaker 1: contests like this played the FS on player props. It's

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Speaker 1: the time to really, you know, invest in everything non

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Speaker 1: season long related because we have that extra time. So

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Speaker 1: I mean trying to do as many formats as possible.

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Speaker 2: All right, Raymond, what do you think? What are the

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Speaker 2: formats that you like?

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Speaker 3: I think I like, I feel like I'm in the

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Speaker 3: twilight zone. Like now we're staying up all night, like

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Speaker 3: I was staying up all night off season, and I'm

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Speaker 3: trying to like not stay up all night now that

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Speaker 3: we have like a fourth of the team's well a

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Speaker 3: little more than that remaining in the playoffs. But no,

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Speaker 3: I like, I do like the idea of kind of

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Speaker 3: having a redraft every week or every two weeks, because

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Speaker 3: something that I think is would be fun and fantasy

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Speaker 3: that we don't really get to do is use like

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Speaker 3: the third fourth receivers, you know, number two tight ends,

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Speaker 3: and I think if you're redrafting for even each round

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Speaker 3: of the playoffs, those guys kind of come into play,

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Speaker 3: especially if you're in a you know, fairly large league.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's kind of it adds a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a wrinkle that you won't see in the

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Speaker 3: regular season where you have to kind of say, Okay,

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Speaker 3: do I want Isaiah McKenzie or you know, Rishard Robert

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Speaker 3: Davis or something like that, and you know those a

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Speaker 3: guy like that could end up winning you a week

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Speaker 3: or something. So I do like that that rink. And

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Speaker 3: of course, you know, go to fashion DFS is always

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Speaker 3: fun this time of year because you have the they

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Speaker 3: kind of split the slates up into two days. You

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Speaker 3: also have the four games slate, and then you have

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Speaker 3: the showdown so you can kind of focus in a

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Speaker 3: little more on each matchup.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get into it. We have our rankings. Raymond,

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Speaker 2: did you stay up all night doing your rankings or no.

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Speaker 3: I actually I got some sleep, so I got up

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Speaker 3: it around I think it was maybe five or so

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Speaker 3: and started working on him, and I got him in

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Speaker 3: by like about ten or so. I was five hours

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Speaker 3: instead of like fifteen, So excellent. Yeah, feeling good. And

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Speaker 3: I don't feel like I'm gonna they're gonna like change

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Speaker 3: a time throughout the week, which is also good.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a couple of situations, you know, Philadelphia.

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Speaker 3: Obviously there are some injury question marks, but for the

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Speaker 3: most part, I feel good about where I'm at.

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Speaker 2: All Right, let's get into it. The three players at

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Speaker 2: the top of our rankings, and it's not kind of

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Speaker 2: funny to say this because they're only like eight quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: so it's like the Big three out of eight. But

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Speaker 2: the three players at the top of her rankings, we

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Speaker 2: have Watson, Breeze, and Wilson Sean. Who are you relatively

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Speaker 2: high on this week?

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Speaker 1: You know, this is pretty much a DFS specific show,

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Speaker 1: so I wouldn't say I'm high on him. He's my

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Speaker 1: number six QB. But I think I'll have a lot

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Speaker 1: of Tom Brady this week. I'm in DFS. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to fall for the trap we're getting you know,

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Speaker 1: the greatest quarterback of all time. He's the cheapest quarterback

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Speaker 1: on the slate, so I'm going to be a sucker

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Speaker 1: for that. I'm going to take him at home against

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Speaker 1: the Titans. Hopefully we get some Brady playoff magic here,

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Speaker 1: and then I think they'll fall flat next round. I'm

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Speaker 1: then get beat. But you know, fifty eight hundred the

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks on this lad they are pretty interesting. I really

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Speaker 1: want to take Deshaun Watson at his price, but I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, Brady, I think he's be under owned this week,

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Speaker 1: you know, as the lowest price QB. And then I'm

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Speaker 1: going to probably load up at wide receivers. So I

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Speaker 1: think just the way that roster construction is looking, I

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Speaker 1: think Brady makes the most sense for me.

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Speaker 2: Rabon what ABOUTE You I like Drew.

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Speaker 3: Breese actually as the number one guy this week when

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Speaker 3: I look at Watson, I know, you know a lot

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Speaker 3: of there's a lot of kind of talk about these

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Speaker 3: these dome overs in the postseason, which have hit at

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Speaker 3: a pretty high rate, but most pretty much all of

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Speaker 3: that profitability has come and all of the kind of

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Speaker 3: plus hitting that over has come at a totals of

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Speaker 3: forty five and a half or above. So essentially, when

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Speaker 3: the total is leak average or better, when it's under that,

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Speaker 3: it's pretty much five hundred. So I don't I'm not

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Speaker 3: as bullish on kind of a high scoring game for

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Speaker 3: Bill's Texans as maybe some. I do think that Vikings

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Speaker 3: and Saints has a good chance of going over that total.

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Speaker 3: It's the highest total of the week, So that's kind

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Speaker 3: of the game that I'm zeroing in on. And Breeze,

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's been I mean it's he's been unstoppable

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Speaker 3: these last few weeks, kind of got in a groove.

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Speaker 3: I think it's what fifteen touchdowns and no picks over

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Speaker 3: the last five He had that game where he only

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Speaker 3: threw one incomplete and I think that the Vikings defense

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Speaker 3: isn't what it once was. So I do like Breeze

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Speaker 3: at sixty six hundred over Watson and over Russell Wilson

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Speaker 3: at sixty eight hundred as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I hear you there with Breeze. And one thing

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Speaker 2: that's interesting is the Saints over the past month have

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Speaker 2: averaged forty points per game. That's just them. That's not

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Speaker 2: even like what the other team has done. So I'm

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Speaker 2: with you there on I'm looking for a high scoring game.

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Speaker 2: I bet the over as quickly as I could on that.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, so in the Friedman model in DraftKings for

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Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs, which by the way, obviously I say it

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Speaker 2: every week, it's the sexiest of the models. He's number

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Speaker 2: one in that model, and I get it. And then

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Speaker 2: Watson is number one and a lot of the other models,

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Speaker 2: both models for you guys for Draft Kings, the Baials model,

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Speaker 2: the cs A model. So I like those two guys

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Speaker 2: quite a bit, and Watson specifically, if it looks like

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Speaker 2: Fuller is going to play, and right now things seem

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Speaker 2: to be trending in that direction, and so if he plays,

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Speaker 2: you know Fuller he's a net positive to that entire offense.

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Speaker 2: And so when he plays, you have Deshaun Watson scoring

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Speaker 2: five to six more DraftKings points per game. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's a good situation for him, even though I

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Speaker 2: have to admit it is a tough matchup. I have

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Speaker 2: a lot of respect for the Bills pass defense, but

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Speaker 2: I still like Watson at his what I think is

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Speaker 2: a relatively reduced price on DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: One thing that I do like about Breeze in the

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Speaker 3: spot is his floor projection, which is essentially what he

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Speaker 3: would be expected to go over about eighty five percent

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Speaker 3: of the time. It's thirteen point one for DraftKings, and

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Speaker 3: the second highest is ten, So he has a pretty

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Speaker 3: sizeable lead in terms of this floor projection over all

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Speaker 3: the other quarterbacks Josh Allen, interestingly enough, number two, assuming

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Speaker 3: for some of that rushing upside and that Houston defense

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Speaker 3: hasn't been good, so I think the key to that

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Speaker 3: game going over would be kind of the Bills showing

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Speaker 3: up on the other end. But bree breathe, I think

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Speaker 3: the floor is kind of unmatched.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and he has the highest selling projection in the

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Speaker 2: model too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think just real quick, gripe, I want

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Speaker 1: to make it's so frustrating that Taysom Hill is still

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Speaker 1: listed as a QB, especially for this late like I

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Speaker 1: have n't projected just as a wide receiver right around

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Speaker 1: the Ted Gin Tray Quon Smith range, And I just

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Speaker 1: think it'd be really cool if they give, you know,

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Speaker 1: make him a wide receiver finally, especially for slate like this.

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Speaker 1: Not that I would take him necessarily, but I do

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Speaker 1: want others to kind of take him at like or whatever.

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Speaker 1: But he's he's so annoying as sort of the troll

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Speaker 1: that kind of breaks slates or something that no one has.

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Speaker 1: I wish that they would make them wide receiver just

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Speaker 1: so he was relevant.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Okay, So Sean, you said that Brady is one

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Speaker 2: of the players you're really interested in. I get everything

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Speaker 2: that you said. I'm just I'm kind of out, you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm a little out of Brady and he because it's

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Speaker 2: it's a situation where, you know, like he normally, I mean,

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Speaker 2: he tends to do on the playoffs, but in the

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Speaker 2: second half of the season and he's historically faded, and

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Speaker 2: you know, he's been even worse this year in general.

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Speaker 2: And you know, part of that is probably age, part

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Speaker 2: of it, you know, lack of weapons around him, you know,

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Speaker 2: cold weather, whatever. You can come up with a number

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Speaker 2: of reasons for why he's underperformed. And so, you know,

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Speaker 2: you look at this spot. I think it is great

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Speaker 2: in that he's at home, he's favored, He's going against

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Speaker 2: a Titans defense that is lacking its top two cornerbacks.

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Speaker 2: Just benched the guy who was backing up one of

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Speaker 2: those guys. You know, they're playing an old veteran in

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Speaker 2: Tremaine Brock, who wasn't with a team a month ago. Like,

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Speaker 2: there are a lot of things that are good with

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Speaker 2: his situation, especially that the Titans are just driving games

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Speaker 2: to the over and so I think that could be

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Speaker 2: a high scoring game. So, like I get the setup

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Speaker 2: and why everything is good for Brady, It's just I

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Speaker 2: don't trust it because I haven't liked anything that I've

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Speaker 2: seen out of him for you know, like the past

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Speaker 2: month and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would just say I'm not going to have

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent Brady. I'm just going to try to

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Speaker 1: have more more than you know, what his ownership is.

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Speaker 1: So I would say, like twenty to twenty five percent

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Speaker 1: exposure is about where I'm headed. And and I'll mention

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Speaker 1: it later in wide receivers. But I just think there's

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Speaker 1: a sneaky contrarian snack stack with him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, So Sean, who are you relatively low on?

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm gonna try fading the quarterback playing at New

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Speaker 1: England again this week. It didn't work so well with

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Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, of course, pretty much call that

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Speaker 1: with backfire. But I'm going to fade Ryan Tannehill here.

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Speaker 1: I do get taking him to be Contrarion's. He's pretty

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Speaker 1: pricey given the matchup. But I think this is an

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Speaker 1: obvious spot for them to just feed Derek Henry a

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Speaker 1: Ton and probably not lean on Tannehill as much. So

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Speaker 1: I just don't like his upside in the spot. And

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Speaker 1: you know, there's there's eight quarterbacks on the site, so

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Speaker 1: we can't play everyone. We have to fade somebody, and

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Speaker 1: I think I'll try to be under own on Ryan Tannehill.

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Speaker 2: Here, ratbou On, what about you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with Sean. I think Tannehill stands out.

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Speaker 3: You know, you can't use like the recency bias from

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Speaker 3: last week and in again that the Patriots obviously, you know,

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Speaker 3: just from a human perspective, couldn't have been quite as

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Speaker 3: motivated as they should have been, even though they were

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Speaker 3: still playing for seeding, because there's no other way to

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Speaker 3: explain a loss to the Miami Dolphins for the New

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Speaker 3: England Patriots, for a team that good. So I'm not

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Speaker 3: looking to I'm not looking to really touch Tannehill. And

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Speaker 3: we have a piece up on Action Network dot Com

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Speaker 3: right now, John Ewing Road it it's really interesting about

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Speaker 3: first time postseason quarterbacks and they have really struggled going twelve,

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Speaker 3: fourteen and thirty against the spread, and you know that's

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Speaker 3: I think that's kind of indicative of how tough it is,

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Speaker 3: you know, your first go around. A guy like Tannehill

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Speaker 3: going into Foxborough, I don't see it for him. I

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Speaker 3: think that the Patriots can take away AJ Brown, which

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Speaker 3: is really the guy that's been doing, you know, almost

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Speaker 3: single handedly pulling Tannehill to these you know, plus plus

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Speaker 3: fantasy stat lines. I think with that, if AJ Brown

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Speaker 3: has elimitated, it's a lot tougher when you're working with

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Speaker 3: you know, Corey Davis and John new Smith and Ferkser

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Speaker 3: and Taj Sharp to put up big numbers. So I

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Speaker 3: will be fading Tanahale as well.

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Speaker 2: All Right, we're going to have some conversation on AJ

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Speaker 2: Brown later. And by the way, John new Smith fantastic

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Speaker 2: rusher puts up next to his name.

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Speaker 1: That's all he did last week though, Yeah, I know,

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Speaker 1: all right, let's uh, let's get to the quarterback prop

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Speaker 1: for the wildcard weekend.

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Speaker 2: By the way, everyone should check out the Fantasy Labs

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Speaker 2: props tool, which over the past year going back, actually

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Speaker 2: more than past year, going back to the full twenty

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Speaker 2: eighteen season. So now really like two years worth of

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Speaker 2: data has a sixty percent win rate on Bett's player

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Speaker 2: props that have a bet quality of ten. Sean, give

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Speaker 2: us a player prop.

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Speaker 1: Let's go with Ryan Tannehill total passing yards at New England.

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Speaker 1: I have it at two twenty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: or we should almost do what will be great Ryan

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Speaker 1: Tannehill passing yards or Derrick Henry rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: That's a good one.

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Speaker 3: I actually have the over. I have them a little

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Speaker 3: bit over that, so I'll go over it there. I

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Speaker 3: think the Patriots actually can can, like Friedman said, do

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Speaker 3: some things against this Titans defense. So I wouldn't be

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Speaker 3: surprised if Tannehill put up some yards. I just don't

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Speaker 3: really expect them to have a lot of success. Expect

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Speaker 3: some turnovers, some negative plays, things like that. But I'll

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Speaker 3: go over just because I think they will be playing

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Speaker 3: from behind.

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Speaker 2: I have the under. I have two twenty one, so

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Speaker 2: I feel like I'm not all that far from your line.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, just you know, tough matchup playing out doors,

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Speaker 2: but I think I'm pretty close to to your line. Raymond,

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Speaker 2: where are you? You said you're a little bit over.

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Speaker 1: So I'm at two thirty three.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we're pretty much brackety Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I pretty much split the difference on you guys. That's okay,

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Speaker 1: Yeah good, that was That was the one projection I

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Speaker 1: wasn't too sure about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's talk about these running backs, the

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Speaker 2: three guys the top of our rankings, al M Kamara,

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Speaker 2: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry Sean. Where are you with these

355
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Speaker 2: guys or anyone else that you were relatively high on?

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Speaker 1: So I love both running backs and the Bills Texans game.

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Speaker 1: Carlos Hide is only fifty one hundred. I think this

358
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Speaker 1: is a spot where they'll intend to use him heavily. Here.

359
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Speaker 1: The Bills are a run funnel type defense, you know,

360
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Speaker 1: the Texans are slight home favorites. He's averaged you know,

361
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Speaker 1: the rest of starters. Last week, I believe he only

362
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Speaker 1: had like four carries, so we'll throw out that game.

363
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Speaker 1: But the three previous games he was averaging nineteen carries.

364
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Speaker 1: And he's pretty cheap on DKSE fifty one hundred, So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a spot where his ceiling's a

366
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Speaker 1: lot higher than normal. Obviously, he's not going to catch

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Speaker 1: many balls, but I think, you know, a twenty carry

368
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Speaker 1: game for Hundy yards in a touchdown is possible here,

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Speaker 1: I concern like a poor man's Derek Henry in the

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Speaker 1: spot and then on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 1: Devin Singletary. I just love him, you know. Ever since

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Speaker 1: Week eleven, he's basically become the workhorse back. In Week sixteen,

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Speaker 1: they increased his role even more. He played ninety six

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Speaker 1: percent of snaps. They didn't even let Frank Gore get

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Speaker 1: a touch that game. So you know that that's not

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Speaker 1: in anybody's mind right now, because week seventeen they rested

377
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Speaker 1: the starters as well. So I'm just looking at Week

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Speaker 1: sixteen and I could see him having, you know, a

379
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Speaker 1: twenty five touch game here, and his ress run per

380
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Speaker 1: drop back spiked up at eighty eight percent that game.

381
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Speaker 1: I just see him as being a true workhorse back here.

382
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Speaker 1: They'll they'll need him to beat the Texans, So I'll

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Speaker 1: have a ton of him at six K this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Singletary is popping in our models, especially our

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Speaker 2: models for FanDuel. But I mean, you can obviously make

386
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Speaker 2: a case for getting an exposure to him on DraftKings too. Raybawn,

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Speaker 2: who are you relatively high on? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I love the singletary call. I think he's going to

389
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Speaker 3: be deployed, like just unleashed in this game. I mean this,

390
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Speaker 3: this is what you have to do in a road

391
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Speaker 3: playoff game where you're underdog. This is what they got

392
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Speaker 3: him for.

393
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Speaker 1: So love it.

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Speaker 3: A guy that's a little more contrarian. It's almost this

395
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Speaker 3: would almost be kind of a poor man's Carlos Hide.

396
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Speaker 3: But I think he has sneaky kind of upside to

397
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Speaker 3: be that power back that ends up going for multiple touchdowns.

398
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Speaker 3: And that's Jordan Howard. Miles Sanders is banged up. You know,

399
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Speaker 3: Boston Scott's going to get a lot of pass down

400
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Speaker 3: work as well. But I was reading a quote from

401
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Speaker 3: Doug Peterson saying they are going to kind of lean

402
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Speaker 3: on Howard a little bit more this week with Sanders

403
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Speaker 3: banged up. And if you look at the Seattle Seahawks

404
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Speaker 3: over the last four games, they have allowed multiple rushing

405
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Speaker 3: touchdowns two running backs in each game. And I think

406
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Speaker 3: Jordan Howard would be that guy if the Eagle's gotten

407
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Speaker 3: scoring position. He's generally that guy that that that they

408
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Speaker 3: look to in those spots. It's a it's an outdoor

409
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Speaker 3: postseason game, just kind of sets up I think for

410
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Speaker 3: for the Eagles to ride him a little more than

411
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Speaker 3: maybe we expect, and I think it kind of it

412
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Speaker 3: almost reminds me of a couple of years ago when

413
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Speaker 3: you had you had a Garrett Blunt just kind of

414
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Speaker 3: as that power back for New England. His usage was

415
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Speaker 3: all over the place, and then they kind of just

416
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Speaker 3: unleashed him in a game against the Colts. And I

417
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Speaker 3: think there's like a sneaky chance that that could be

418
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Speaker 3: the case for for Howard this week. Obviously gamescript depending,

419
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Speaker 3: but love it is a tournament play, all right.

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Speaker 2: One guy. I am relatively high on Dalvin Cook. I

421
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Speaker 2: feel like that almost doesn't need much explanation, but in

422
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Speaker 2: a smash spot in what I expect to be a

423
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Speaker 2: high scoring game, and the Saints aren't bad by any

424
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Speaker 2: means in run defense, but I just have so much respect.

425
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Speaker 2: And it's funny because, like, I didn't think all that

426
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Speaker 2: highly of Cook entering the season, but you know, he's

427
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Speaker 2: been able to stay healthy for most of the year.

428
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Speaker 2: It's it's trending towards him playing and the offensive line,

429
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Speaker 2: even though I still don't think the like separate parts

430
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Speaker 2: are really all that good as a cohesive unit. They

431
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Speaker 2: have been pretty good and run blocking this year, and

432
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Speaker 2: I think that speaks to you know, run game guru

433
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: Gary Kubiak in his influence, and then also Kevin Stefanski,

434
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 2: and you know, they just have a team that is

435
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: very committed to running the ball. I think it could

436
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 2: be a pretty big game for Dalvin Cook, and obviously

437
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 2: we know what he can do as a receiver too.

438
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 2: So right now I have him number one. You guys

439
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 2: both have him ranked number two, and you know, I

440
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 2: can see the case for either way with how that

441
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 2: would go. But I have Cooked just a little bit

442
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: ahead of Kamara. Here, Sean, who are you relatively low on?

443
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 1: So I'm low on Derrick Henry. I just think he's

444
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: way too expensive on DK. I know he's going to

445
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 1: be pretty heavily owned after last week's two hundred yard

446
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: three touchdown game, But you know DK is a full

447
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 1: PPR site, so you know, ninety five yards and a

448
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,719
Speaker 1: touchdown is about fifteen and a half points, and that's

449
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 1: that's just not worth eighty two hundred. So you have

450
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 1: to fade somebody on this late. I think he'll be

451
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 1: the guy fit at running back. I have Kamara and

452
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:02,159
Speaker 1: Cook projected higher than him, and they're you know, significantly cheaper.

453
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 1: I think wide receiver, like I mentioned earlier, is the

454
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 1: position to spend up on, so I'll be fading him,

455
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 1: and you know, I am very aware of his ceiling

456
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: in this game, but I think, you know, part of

457
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 1: this is just knowing that he's going to be heavily

458
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: owned at eighty two hundred and he has at the

459
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: last time he got a catch was week fourteen, I believe,

460
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: so you know on a PPR site that that just

461
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: doesn't help. So he's going to have to score multiple

462
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: touchdowns again, I think to hit at this price, especially

463
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: on a smaller slate, I think it's it's it's easier

464
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 1: to find cheaper options at running back than other positions.

465
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the the game last week was massive

466
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 2: and UH totally destroyed Chubb tickets for you know, twelve

467
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 2: to one, fifteen to one, UH to lead that Yeah yeah, yeah,

468
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 2: I had.

469
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 1: I had some Henry too, but it was definitely rooting

470
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: for Chub to hang on.

471
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, So that was that was disappointing to see,

472
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: but massive and impressive performance by Derek hen last week. Raymond,

473
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: who are you relatively low on one.

474
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 3: Guy that stands out for me is Alexander Madison. You know,

475
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 3: I know that he's been that number two back for

476
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 3: most of the year, but we got to remember, you know,

477
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 3: he had a twenty seven percent backfield carry share in

478
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 3: the games that he was active. But the Vikings were

479
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 3: one of the most running heavy teams in the in

480
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 3: the league, and they had a lot of games where

481
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: they were kind of blowing people out, and so I

482
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: think that that number is a little bit inflated. And

483
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 3: it's the postseason, so I do think that, you know,

484
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: Cook is going to be the guy to kind of

485
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 3: hit his average, and they're gonna make sure that they

486
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 3: get him his carries. Madison coming off a multi game

487
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 3: layout layoff, he's a rookie, first postseason game. I just

488
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 3: really don't know if they're going to lean on him

489
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 3: very heavily in this spot. So you know, he's kind

490
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 3: of priced, you know, right in there. Like some of

491
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 3: these other guys, like Sean mentioned Carl was hied, I

492
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 3: like Jordan Howard more than him. With Tavius Murray, so

493
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 3: like I would just pay the extra extra two three

494
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 3: hundred hours, four hundre it. I was like one of

495
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,719
Speaker 3: those guys instead of going Madison. And right now I

496
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 3: think Miles Sanders I would even say is a little

497
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 3: bit over priced at sixty two hundred because I again

498
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 3: I think this is a game, you know, Seattle's been

499
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 3: kind of getting banged around in the run game. I

500
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 3: think this game, you know, close game, one of the

501
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: a little bit low scoring in terms of the projection.

502
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 3: I just think it sets up for a little bit

503
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 3: more power running and then you're seeing a lot of

504
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: Boston Scott on pass downs as well. So it could

505
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 3: just be an ugly spot with with like a three

506
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 3: man committee for Sanders at sixty two hundred, where whereas

507
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 3: you have a Devin Singletary who has Sean mentioned he's

508
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 3: at six K and he got every he got every

509
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: touch last the last important game for the Bills a

510
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. So Sanders is another one I'm

511
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 3: looking to faith.

512
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, looking at the rankings right now, I'm too high

513
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 2: on Sanders. I have him at number four, and like

514
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 2: I'm just anticipating I'm going to need to move him

515
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 2: down based on the injury, which I think I probably

516
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 2: didn't take into account as much as I even though

517
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: they said MRI I was negative. You know, it looks

518
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: like he's you know, day to day and trending towards

519
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 2: playing this week. I need to adjust him down, you know,

520
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: in part because of Singletary and what he offers. But

521
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 2: then also, yeah, Jordan Howard coming back.

522
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: Uh.

523
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm probably a little bit too high on

524
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 2: Sanders one guy I am low on, and Sean is

525
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 2: some guy you like Carlos Hyde.

526
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 1: Uh.

527
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: And so I get why you would like Carlos Hide

528
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 2: home favorite. You know, it could be a good situation,

529
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 2: but I don't know. I'm just a little bit pessimistic

530
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 2: on the Texans.

531
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 3: Uh.

532
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 2: And so I think game script might not be as positive.

533
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 2: And if you know, if the Texans fall behind, I

534
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 2: don't know, if there's a situation in which Carlos Hide

535
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: gets the necessary carries he needs to return value, and

536
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 2: I could see the split being a little bit closer

537
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 2: between Hyde and Duke Johnson in terms of playing time.

538
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 2: So I'm you know, I don't know. I don't want

539
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 2: to say like I'm down on Hyde, but I'm I'm

540
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: lower on Hide relative to where you are. I have

541
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: him ranked number nine, you have him ranked number five.

542
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 3: Do you think do you think Watson is going to

543
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: be the highest one quarterback or because I think it's

544
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 3: he's an interesting leverage play, you know what I mean. Like,

545
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 3: if you're looking at it from a tournament perspective, If

546
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 3: if like Watson Hopkins are going to be high owned,

547
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: which I'm guessing they will be, especially on DK, I

548
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 3: think I think that's the way you would use him.

549
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 3: What would be.

550
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, yeah, I don't know. I think Breeze

551
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: might be. Yeah.

552
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 1: I think Breeze will be the chalk.

553
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, Breeze at home in the game with the highest

554
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,239
Speaker 2: total on the slate, and then with the matchup that

555
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: Watson has, I think people might respect that enough to

556
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 2: pivot towards Breeze, especially since Breeze is cheaper on DraftKings, which,

557
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 2: like I just I don't understand that move. The fact

558
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 2: that Breeze isn't the most expensive quarterback I think is

559
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,640
Speaker 2: a little off. Sean, I almost skipped over the high

560
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: point of the running back section, which is the prop

561
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: go ahead and tell us.

562
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the guy. We really haven't talked about much,

563
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: but Alvin Kamara, I want to do total rushing and

564
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: receiving yards. I mean, talk about salvaging his fantasy season.

565
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 1: He had what eleven game scoreless drought, and then he

566
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 1: scored four times the last two games. So I have

567
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: his total rushing and receiving yards at ninety four and

568
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 1: a half.

569
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 2: I'll go over. I have it at like one hundred

570
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: and one, like one hundred and a half, so I'll

571
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 2: go over.

572
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 3: I have it at ninety seven, so yeah, I'll also

573
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 3: go over. But I think this is an interesting spot

574
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 3: for Kamara because you know they had last week. I

575
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: don't think they were fully invested in giving him a

576
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 3: full workload, so his I think his carry percentage is

577
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 3: kind of hovering in that in the high fifties. But

578
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: in terms of the backfield carries with Murray, but I

579
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 3: think in a game like this, they will feed him,

580
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 3: whether it's on the ground or through the air, probably

581
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 3: at the highest volume they have all season or since

582
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 3: early in the year where Murray wasn't as much of

583
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: a factor. So I do like I like the upside

584
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 3: for Kamara, and all he needs is one or two

585
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 3: big plays to kind of like a spike play to

586
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 3: get over because I think he will get around twenty

587
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 3: twenty touches or approach twenty touches and.

588
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: How many how many touches do you guys have for Murray?

589
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say. The thing that scares me

590
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 2: a little bit about this is that if the I

591
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: mean their home favorites, if the Saints get out to

592
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 2: a sizeable lead, I could see them using Murray a

593
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 2: little bit more in the second half. So I have

594
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 2: Murray projected for nine carries in one reception.

595
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 3: I've met seven point nine carries and one point nine

596
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: catches actually, so same amount of touches, just under ten,

597
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 3: just like about between nine nine and a half and

598
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: ten touches.

599
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there with you guys. It's a revenge

600
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 1: game narrative for Murray too.

601
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 2: So ah, forgot that I change.

602
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I give him a boost.

603
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's talk about the wider SI. The

604
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 2: guy's at the top of our rankings. Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins,

605
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: Julian Edelman. Edelman is interesting. I definitely want to hear

606
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,479
Speaker 2: what you guys have to say about him, because you know,

607
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: he's he's playing through injuries, he hasn't been super productive,

608
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 2: but this is you know, a good matchup for him,

609
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 2: and this is the time in which they really need him,

610
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 2: and you figure that they will feed him. Sean, what

611
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 2: are your thoughts? Who are the guys you're relatively high on?

612
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: So I rarely point out the you know, top projected

613
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: and most expensive guy, but I think this is necessary.

614
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: I think Michael Thomas is a free square at ninety

615
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: three hundred. I mean, he's breaking my projections here. So,

616
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: like I said, there's easy ways to save money at

617
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: all the other positions, and it's pretty easy to fit

618
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: in Michael Thomas. I think he'll be extremely chocky, as

619
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: he should be. I'm not gonna even try fading him

620
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: in the spot. I haven't projected seven more points than

621
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: the next guy, so he comes out his I have

622
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: his estimated capt is about ten point two k, so

623
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: he's about one k too cheap on the slate. So

624
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: there's I don't really have to go into why he's

625
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 1: a good play, but just know that he's he's way

626
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: too cheap. He's gonna be highly owned, and I don't

627
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 1: think there's any reason to fade him. But the one

628
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: guy I do like kind of taking in the four

629
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: K range, and I mentioned earlier, is that this is

630
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: the guy I want to stack with Brady in a

631
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: couple of teams. Is Nikhil Harry at forty one hundred.

632
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: You know, Julian Edelman, he's tricky. Like you mentioned, he's

633
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: playing at way less than one hundred percent. I think it,

634
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: you know, that would have been one of the positives

635
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: having a first round by is to get him healthy.

636
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: But he's gonna have to play through it, so I

637
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 1: think we won't see, you know, eight to ten catch

638
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: game like we're used to it this time from him.

639
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: I think Harry is a sneaky play. He's been playing

640
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: around sixty percent of the dropbacks and then last week

641
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: he was targeted seven times. One of them was a

642
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: corner fade in the end zone that he just missed

643
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: a touchdown. So I could see Brady having him be

644
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: his top red zone weapon this week. So I love

645
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: him a lot. At four one hundred, I think he's

646
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: he's a potential two touchdown upside guy. I don't think

647
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: he's gonna go for six catches one hundred yards, so

648
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: to speak. I think he's a sneaky you know, four

649
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: catch forty yards for two touchdowns type of play on

650
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: four games slight. Those are the type of guys that

651
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: I like pairing with a guy like Brady on the slate.

652
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 2: All right, Raybon, you are relatively high on Edelman. What

653
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: are your thoughts there?

654
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think, you know, this is classic Patriots

655
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: I mean, and I do, like Harry, I think that's

656
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 3: that is a good call. But I'm bush on the

657
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 3: Patriots offense in general. I think this is a defense

658
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 3: that they can have success against. But when it comes

659
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: to Edelman, I mean, you know, he's banged up, absolutely,

660
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: but number one, you just look at these experienced veteran quarterbacks,

661
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 3: like at the end of the day against a shaky secondary,

662
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 3: I think Brady's still going to lean on the guy

663
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: he trusts the most to get you know, third down

664
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 3: catches and just just in general, if you look at

665
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: his Edelman's postseason numbers the last five postseasons, Julian Edelman

666
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 3: is seven catchers are more per game, eight catchers are

667
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: more per game and four of those five and that's

668
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: you know, that's above his season average. So there is

669
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 3: a lot of data to back up kind of Brady

670
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: leaning on him even more and his median target his

671
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 3: median targets this year in a game, even with some

672
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 3: down games at the end of the year is still

673
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 3: ten and a half, and I think that is a

674
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 3: very fair outlook for him even banged up, because remember

675
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 3: they don't have to all come deep and whatnot. But

676
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 3: I just think to move the chains, he will still

677
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 3: be heavily involved and it can add up pretty quick

678
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 3: in PPR especially.

679
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you are also high on dk metcalf. I see,

680
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 2: and I like that. Like the situation for the cornerbacks

681
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: for the Eagles is I wouldn't say it's dire, but

682
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: it is near dire. So Jalen Mills missed Week seventeen

683
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: with an ankle issue. He practiced every day last week

684
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 2: on a limited basis, so I think he's likely to

685
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: play this week. But Ronald Darby is obviously out for

686
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 2: the season. On ir Avonte Maddox, who normally plays in

687
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: the slot, for Week seventeen, he shifted outside to the

688
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: perimeter and then he suffered an undisclosed injury, so we're

689
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 2: not sure what is happening with him. So right now

690
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 2: in the slot, they are starting a guy who has

691
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 2: a great name in Cravon LeBlanc, but that doesn't mean

692
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 2: that he's going to be able to defend Tyler Lockett

693
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 2: and then on the outside there starting Rasul Douglas against

694
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 2: DK Metcalf, and that's assuming Jalen Mills is able to play,

695
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 2: but he if he's not, or if he's not one

696
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: hundred percent, then there could be a really bad situation

697
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: going on for the Eagles in their secondary. Of course,

698
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 2: all of that assumes that the Seahawks might be willing

699
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 2: to throw the ball, which is never a safe assumption.

700
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 2: But just in terms of the matchup, you do have

701
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 2: to like what's happening for Metcalf and also for Lockett.

702
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, and one thing about Metcalf, and I might end

703
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 3: up moving him up to six because I think there's

704
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: valid concerns about all right, you know, Stefan Diggs could

705
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 3: see some, could see some Lattimore hasn't been, you know,

706
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 3: quite as productive with sewing in the lineup, and s

707
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 3: Deewin just hasn't been productive period. And then AJ Brown

708
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 3: could see some Steven, Stefan Gilmour. So you know, I

709
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 3: have you know, Thomas Edelman, Hopkins, Lockett Brown, John Brown.

710
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 3: I think you can make a good case for Metcalf

711
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 3: number six because he's run one hundred percent. He ran

712
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 3: one hundred percent of the route's last game and ninety

713
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 3: eight percent the game before. His season average is around

714
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 3: eighty eight percent, So you're you're now looking at a

715
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 3: target share in that twenty two to twenty three percent

716
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 3: range if you kind of projected out with the increase

717
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 3: in routes. And I think that'll continue because you don't

718
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 3: have Josh goryon uh. You know, Molie Turner will see

719
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 3: if he can clear if he clears the concussion protocol.

720
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 3: But you know, Jeron Brown just got hurt. You have

721
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 3: John Ursua, a rookie. So I think Metcalf is a

722
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 3: pretty good bet to play pretty much every snap. Yeah,

723
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 3: on the outside. And this this is how you beat

724
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,720
Speaker 3: the Eagles team as you attack them at the cornerback position,

725
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 3: you attack them on the perimeter. So I think Metcalf

726
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 3: has a it's within his range of outcomes to finish.

727
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 3: You know, if if Michael Thomas doesn't score like two touchdowns,

728
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 3: there's a chance that Metcalf could could be right up

729
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 3: there with him. I think he has a ton of

730
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 3: upside for sure.

731
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: I mean you mentioned his range of outcomes, and he's

732
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: had some big games this year, but I don't think

733
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,720
Speaker 1: we've even seen his true ceiling game yet, Yeah, which

734
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: is you know, like a six to seven catch, hundred

735
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: fifth yards and two touchdown game, And there's certainly a

736
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 1: spot where you can see him potentially doing that.

737
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 3: So I love the call.

738
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, uh okay, I mean, let's let's get into the

739
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: highlight of the show. Me standing for aj Brown Againstefan Gilmore,

740
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,399
Speaker 2: just as I did last week with Devonte Parker, which

741
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: by the way, was the right side. I have all

742
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: the respect for schef on you'll, who I think really

743
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 2: should be a lock for Defensive Player of the Year,

744
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 2: but I think it's a similar situation to what we

745
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 2: saw last week. I think Tannehill he's not the yolo

746
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 2: type of quarterback that Ryan Fitzpatrick is, but like there

747
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: are some definite similarities and Tannehill is like playing with

748
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: house money at this point. Like I don't think that

749
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: he has the fear to think, oh, you know what,

750
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 2: maybe I shouldn't throw at Stefan Gilmore's coverage ten times

751
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 2: in this game. Like I could see Tannehill actually doing that.

752
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 2: And I think Brown is the physical and like bald

753
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 2: dominant type of receiver, similar in a way to Devonte Parker,

754
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: who could actually have some success against Stefan Gilmore, and

755
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 2: I've just been incredibly impressed with what we've seen out

756
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: of AJ Brown this year. So I you know, it's

757
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: not to say like I think he's a lock to

758
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: go off, but I'm I'm just a little bit higher

759
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: on him than than you guys are. And it's like

760
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: one hundred percent that he's going to see Stefan Gilmore

761
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: for you know, like ninety five to ninety nine percent

762
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 2: of this route. So it's definitely not an easy matchup.

763
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:14,280
Speaker 2: But I'm more comfortable having him at number six. You know, Raymond,

764
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 2: you have him at number nine. It's not to say

765
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 2: there's actually like all that huge of a disparity probably

766
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 2: in the way that we're projecting, because it's such a

767
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 2: small slate, but you know, relatively speaking, I know that

768
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 2: you are lower on him.

769
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, at first, I'll say this, you know,

770
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,760
Speaker 3: in terms of half point PPR, I have John Brown

771
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: and AJ Brown there, you know, bookending five and nine,

772
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 3: you know, and this, so there's five guys there and

773
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 3: they're all separated by a point, so it's not a ton.

774
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: But I do think that AJ actually does have the

775
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 3: lowest floor because again, I just don't think that you

776
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 3: can kind of look at like you can kind of

777
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: look at the Patriots and like, Okay, this is what

778
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 3: happened last week. Davonte Parker goes off and they lose

779
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 3: the game, They lose the seed. Like, I just don't

780
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 3: see Bill Belichick this happen again, to the point where

781
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: I could see them putting Stefan Gilmour on Brown and

782
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 3: still doubling him all game with a safety and saying,

783
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 3: there is no way that you're beating up, like if

784
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 3: you want to beat us with all these other guys

785
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 3: John Whu and Taj and Corey Davis and Henry Right.

786
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: Yeah no, no, I mean in a past game in

787
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,280
Speaker 3: the past. Yeah no, I mean I just don't see

788
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 3: Bill Belichick in Fox bro wetting. Does this happen again,

789
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 3: like like like he's just he's not He's just not

790
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 3: a coach that gets fooled twice. And I just don't

791
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 3: I just don't see it. And we've seen a little

792
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 3: floor for Brown in terms of targets and cert like

793
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 3: the game before last week he had just an eight

794
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 3: percent target here, just a couple of looks. Yeah, kind

795
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 3: of saved his day with a rushing score so you know,

796
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 3: I think the floor just when I look at some

797
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 3: of these, like when I look at you know, John Brown,

798
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 3: I think his his floor is extremely high because he's

799
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 3: that number one guy bad defense.

800
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: Uh.

801
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 3: Then I think Digs and DeLand have a reasonably decent

802
00:38:57,719 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 3: four just because it's going to be a high scoring

803
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 3: game and they see someone to a target chair and then

804
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 3: Metcalf we talked about, so that you know, that just

805
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,280
Speaker 3: leaves Brown as the guy that I could see getting,

806
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 3: Like you know.

807
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 2: Agree, I actually I agree with that. I think the

808
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 2: range of outcomes with him is pretty big, and I

809
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 2: think he like within his range of outcomes, like the

810
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 2: floor is uh, two targets, zero receptions like that that

811
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 2: could happen.

812
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I know you I mean you're making a

813
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 1: good point, and he's expensive enough, he's gonna be I

814
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be under owned. So like you know,

815
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: when we're making medium projections, he doesn't really pop in

816
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: the model. But I think, like you mentioned, the range

817
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: of outcomes at that price, he's gonna be low owned.

818
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 1: I can get behind him much more so than Devonte Parker. Lastic.

819
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 1: That was so weird because that's like the only guy

820
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 1: they had to worry about. You know, you don't have

821
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: to pay attention to Patrick Laird or Delance Turner like

822
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: they have, Derrick Henry like you guys mentioned Corey Davis,

823
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 1: other guys that they have to pay attention to.

824
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: So I think A. J.

825
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,919
Speaker 1: Brown has higher upside here where they can't They can't

826
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 1: cover all of them, so, uh, you know, if they

827
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: weren't able to stop Parker Lastick, I don't know how

828
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 1: they're gonna stop on too. He's just so good borderline

829
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 1: matchup proof that I think you could make case for

830
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: him at this price.

831
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sean, who are you relatively low on?

832
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: So you guys mention him earlier. But Stefan Diggs, I'm

833
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 1: guessing he'll be shadowed by a lot of more and

834
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 1: he's sixty six hundred. Don't really like the price, you know,

835
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 1: they they were able to wrest their starters last week,

836
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 1: so hopefully Feeling can be somewhat his old self and

837
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 1: be closer to one hundred percent. So I could see

838
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 1: Diggs being more of a decoy potentially and targeting Feeling

839
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 1: a ton. And you know Dalvin Cook's gonna be back,

840
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: so I could see them just running at a ton

841
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 1: to keep Drew Brees off the field. So at six

842
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: six hundred, he's just in the price range that where

843
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: I don't think you should be targeting a guy like him,

844
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: you know, especially when guys like John Brown and DK

845
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 1: mattcalf are five hundred bucks cheaper. He's just sort of

846
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 1: in no man's land for me. So I'll be fading

847
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: digs this week at six six hundred.

848
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 2: Okay, one guy I'm probably going to stay away from,

849
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 2: and Sean mentioned him as one he likes, so you know,

850
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 2: we're caught in the crosshoads here, but in kil Harry.

851
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: Not that I think there's anything wrong with him. I'm

852
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 2: just I'm pessimistic about this, this Patriots passing game in general,

853
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 2: which is probably why he's actually a smart play, especially

854
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:18,439
Speaker 2: you know, as a contrary and tournament option. But I'm

855
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 2: just I don't know, I'm I'm pessimistic on everything to

856
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 2: do with the Patriots offense. Sean, give us the wide

857
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 2: receiver player, prop.

858
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 1: Let's go with aj Brown receiving yards. I have it

859
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 1: at sixty five and a half.

860
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 2: That's almost I have it at sixty six and a half,

861
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: so I guess I'm obliged to take the over.

862
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: Are you going to do some media mean tactics and

863
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 1: go with Understill?

864
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:46,280
Speaker 2: Okay?

865
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 1: Over?

866
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the over. I mean, let's be honest.

867
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 2: I want to take the under just because I know

868
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 2: that's probably the right side. But I'll take the over.

869
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 3: I have him at just over sixty, so I'm going

870
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 3: I'm going under here, you know, I agree. I think

871
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,800
Speaker 3: I think he does have It's the range of outcomes

872
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 3: for me. I think the median. I think the median

873
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,360
Speaker 3: is stale. Bill Belichick saying, what the hell you guys

874
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 3: do in the last week with DeVante Parker. This is

875
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Now he's the one guy in the passing

876
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 3: game that can beat us. Let's just take him, Morking.

877
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna go under.

878
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the tight ends. The guys

879
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 2: at the top of our models, Goddard, Cook, and Hollister.

880
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 2: One quick note, we are recording this on Tuesday afternoon.

881
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 2: We don't know yet exactly what's happening with zach Ertz.

882
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 2: I think that we are leaning. I mean, actually, this

883
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 2: will be sort of part of the conversation. Chris. You

884
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: don't have him ranked, so I am assuming that you're

885
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:44,240
Speaker 2: leaning towards the idea that he is not playing. I've

886
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 2: sort of, you know, quote unquote downgraded him to number

887
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 2: five in our rankings, which is basically my way of saying,

888
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 2: I'm kind of doubtful he's gonna play. But where Sean,

889
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: where are you on Ertz?

890
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 1: Well, I'm sorry, I was just treating that situation cautiously.

891
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: Right now. I have him projected for like four catches

892
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: and got it for five. That's something that I'll be,

893
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,919
Speaker 1: you know, dealing with later in the week, so I'm

894
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: just sort of fading it right now.

895
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, in Raymond, I'd like your thoughts on this. So, like,

896
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 2: right now we all have Goddart ranked number one. My

897
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 2: thinking is that even if Ertz does play, I still

898
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 2: really like Dallas Goddard this week obviously not as much,

899
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 2: but I'm I'm still really interested in what he can

900
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: do because they have so few options in that offense.

901
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 2: But what are your thoughts on Goddar if Ertz does play?

902
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: Uh?

903
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I think I think God is the guy.

904
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 3: I think God is just you know, he would probably

905
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 3: see more. SA mean, I don't. I don't see how

906
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 3: Earth plays. I you know, from what I've read. You know,

907
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 3: they say his injury was more serious than thought. He

908
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 3: has a cracked rib and a lacerated kidney that kept

909
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 3: him in the hospital after the game. I mean, I

910
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 3: think this is total game theory by Doug Peterson because

911
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 3: it changes the whole offense. Uh you know, you know,

912
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 3: you don't necessarily play as much too tight end and

913
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 3: I know Josh Perkins, they can kind of slot him

914
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 3: in there, but he's more of a kind of like

915
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 3: a hybrid tight end wide receiver, almost like a Darren

916
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 3: Waller type. So I think that whole offense kind of changes,

917
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 3: and you don't want to give that away in the

918
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 3: most important game of the year. So I think this

919
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 3: total game theory. I don't see Earth playing. I don't

920
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 3: see them risking. I mean it's a playoff game, but

921
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 3: I mean lacerated anytime you're talking about something with a kidney,

922
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 3: I just don't see it. You know, he's too important,

923
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:30,359
Speaker 3: I mean, any human being is too.

924
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 2: Important, any internal organ Yeah, and the word it's.

925
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 3: Like okay, yeah, I mean you know, I may. I mean,

926
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 3: maybe they could give him like some type of teflon

927
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 3: armor thing and he but I just I don't see it.

928
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 3: I could be wrong, but I'm just treating it, you know,

929
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 3: because it really does change the whole projections of the

930
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 3: whole team if you kind of slot him in there,

931
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 3: So like I just have him out so I can

932
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,760
Speaker 3: get a better sense of you know, Okay, what's Perkins?

933
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 3: What do I What do I have for Perkins? What

934
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 3: do I have for ward those guys? And obviously I'll

935
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 3: update if we get more news, but right now I

936
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 3: would consider it like I would consider him doubtful, which

937
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 3: is about twenty five percent chance to point.

938
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, So if Erks is ruled out, which is very possible,

939
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 1: you know, people are obviously going to flock to Goddard.

940
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 1: But you mentioned Josh Perkins. What do you think about

941
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: him as just being a total pivot play. He ran

942
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 1: seventy four percent of routes on dropbacks, basically the Goddard role,

943
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 1: So Goddard basically became ERT's and Perkins got her and

944
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 1: he he went for four catches fifty yards and a touchdown,

945
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 1: So would be over exposedive Perkins. Do you think I

946
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 1: like it?

947
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 2: Yeah?

948
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 3: So, I mean I think I'm the most, probably the most.

949
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 3: I have my number five, and that's why I wanted

950
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,400
Speaker 3: to rank it without Ert to kind of see where

951
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 3: some of these other guys fall, because I think tight

952
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 3: End is going to be a really important play on

953
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 3: this slate because you have got Her and you have

954
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 3: Jared assuming ERT's does it play or it is going

955
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 3: to be limited. You have Goddard and Cook is kind

956
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 3: of the two guys who you probably trust the most.

957
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 3: Jacob Hollis theer has been kind of in six seven

958
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 3: target range but not always doing it a lot with it.

959
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 3: So I think, you know, being able to get a

960
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 3: guy like Perkins under three K that could be a

961
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 3: slate changer. And mentioned he's kind of a he's kind

962
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 3: of a wide receiver in a tight Ends body or

963
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 3: whatever you revice versa however you want to look at it.

964
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, I love that call with Perkins, and I

965
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 3: again I have him at number five assuming Earth is out.

966
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, that is the biggest discrepancy. I would say, like

967
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 2: any meaningful ranking that we have this week, you at

968
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 2: at number five with Perkins, Sean and I much lower

969
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 2: and honestly like I'm gonna adjust him up, like that's

970
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 2: that's something I need to do, Like once I know

971
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 2: for sure that Erth is out all of those snaps

972
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:43,359
Speaker 2: and targets get reallocated. But yeah, Perkins is definitely someone

973
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 2: who's intriguing this week. Sean, who are you relatively high on?

974
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 1: So the whole Eagles situation aside, I think Hollister makes

975
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 1: a compelling case at forty three hundred. I think at

976
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 1: that price he's going to be pretty under owned. He

977
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 1: hasn't really done much in the box scorelarly, he's basically

978
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: a walking four for forty kind of guy. But he's

979
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: you know, he's running a route on over eighty percent

980
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 1: of the dropbacks and last week it spiked up to

981
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: eighty eight. And then you know, he hasn't scored a

982
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: touchdown I think in the last six games, but only

983
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 1: Lockett has more resonand targets fourteen to his twelve since

984
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: Hallister became a full time player in Week nine, So

985
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: he still does have that touchdown potential we saw earlier

986
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 1: in the season. So I love holler start forty three hundred.

987
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 1: I could see him easily, you know, going for five

988
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,840
Speaker 1: catches for fifty yards and a touchdown or something, and

989
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 1: at this price, I think people will shy away. But

990
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: his underlying usage has been encouraging. Just we haven't seen

991
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 1: the results in the box scores yet, but I think

992
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: that could change this week.

993
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I mean honestly, the Titan position is so

994
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 2: weird this week that I feel like there's no one

995
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 2: I actually really love, like relative to the rankings that

996
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 2: we have. So I'm just going to probably go super

997
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 2: chalking and say I really love Dallas Goddard, Like that's obvious.

998
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 2: We all have him number one. But like even if

999
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:05,320
Speaker 2: even if Ertz gets in a full practice on Friday,

1000
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 2: which is not going to happen, but even if we

1001
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 2: had a fully healthy Ertz, I would still really like

1002
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:15,479
Speaker 2: Goddar this week, and I would have probably Erth's number one. Again,

1003
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,839
Speaker 2: assuming Ertz is totally healthy, I would have Erth number

1004
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 2: one and Goddard number two, just because like I think,

1005
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 2: I think they really see what they have in Goddar

1006
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 2: and he's like at this point he's functioning as their

1007
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: number one option. So still like I am, I am

1008
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: really on him this week, and also like Jerry Cook

1009
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 2: quite a bit a high scoring game, but his matchup

1010
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: is is pretty tough going against the Vikings Sean who

1011
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 2: are you relatively low on.

1012
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 1: So I'm low on John new Smith. I mean I

1013
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 1: kind of mentioned that joke earlier, but he only had

1014
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 1: a carry last week, and you know, looking at his usage,

1015
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: he his routes per run drop back lower to forty

1016
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: eight percent. And really this is this is more more

1017
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 1: of a three way ugly tight end time. I'm sure

1018
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 1: than people realize. Anthony Firkser is getting a ton of run.

1019
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:10,240
Speaker 1: He ran just one or two routes less than Smith

1020
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 1: and Michael Prutz, and they're quite a bit as well.

1021
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 1: So this is situation I want to avoid. And John

1022
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 1: new Smith, he had a good three game stretch there

1023
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: where Adam Humphries is out. Adam Humphries could return this week,

1024
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: so I think that'll further lower my production for Smith

1025
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: if he's able to return this week. But Smith is

1026
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 1: a guy that I liked a few weeks ago, but

1027
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: at thirty eight hundred this week, I think I'll be

1028
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 1: completely fading him.

1029
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 2: Raymond, what do you got for me?

1030
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 3: It's the Texans tight ends, Jordan Aikins and Darren Fells.

1031
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 3: They're kind of platooning in terms of their routes run.

1032
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 3: They're both they both tend to be in the fifties,

1033
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 3: so that they're running around half the route. Aikens has

1034
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,280
Speaker 3: popped a little more lately, but this Bills team always talk.

1035
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 1: About it pretty much.

1036
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 3: Since Sewn mc garmott has taken over, they've been really

1037
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 3: good at womiting TI and I think a lot of

1038
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 3: that has to do with their safeties. Jordan Ployer and

1039
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:07,919
Speaker 3: Micah hyge Back there really really good safeties. They don't

1040
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 3: They play a lot of the zone and they can

1041
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 3: kind of and if they can match up man to

1042
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 3: man if they need to as well. So not a

1043
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 3: fan of Fellas and Akens have them nine to ten.

1044
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: I actually like the tight end on the other side

1045
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 3: in this game a lot more in Dawson Knox. The

1046
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 3: Houston Texans are number thirty two in DVA on passes

1047
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 3: over the middle, and I think that you always have

1048
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 3: to look out for, you know, tight end slot receiver.

1049
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 3: So also like Cole Beasley, but I think you know

1050
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 3: Josh Allen if you're using him in a tournament, I

1051
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 3: think a good way to get some differentiation is to

1052
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 3: stack him with you know, not only Brown or not

1053
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 3: only Brown and Beasley, but to throw Knox in there

1054
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,720
Speaker 3: as well, because I think Knox is another sneaky candidate

1055
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 3: to have a big gamer or finish in the top

1056
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 3: three this week.

1057
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, give us the tight end prop.

1058
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 1: So let's go. If Dallas Goddard, assuming zach Ertz is out,

1059
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: what do you guys have receiving yards wise from I

1060
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 1: have that line, I have to adjust that real quick

1061
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,280
Speaker 1: because I have ERT's playing. I would set that at

1062
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 1: Oh boy, I would set at sixty six and a half.

1063
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 2: Wow.

1064
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 3: Actually, I actually do have him a lot slightly under that.

1065
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 3: I'm at sixty two and that he is assuming Earth's

1066
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 3: is out, but you know, pretty close. But I'll go

1067
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 3: under just for the you know, media mean type of situation.

1068
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 1: What's the status on AGA right now?

1069
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 2: Do we even know he still hasn't returned to practice

1070
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 2: yet in a month, So I would lean towards doubtful. Okay,

1071
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: I'll go over sixty two and a half. That would

1072
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 2: actually be more fair.

1073
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:48,919
Speaker 1: I mean, it's pretty tough setting a line and having

1074
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: a stick with it after two guys pounce on it.

1075
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'll give you over sixty two and a half.

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00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:54,799
Speaker 1: We'll see if you guys can middle me out there.

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00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:59,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, that would that would be fantastic. Okay, that's that's

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00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 2: the show. I hope everyone as you're listening to this

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00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 2: that you are having a fantastic new Year. You can

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00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 2: follow Sean, Chris and Me in the Action Network app

1081
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 2: at the Underscore odds maker Chris Raymond and Matt f

1082
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 2: the Oracle use the app to get real time ods

1083
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 2: and track your bets for free. Check out the rest

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00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 2: of our episodes and live shows this week. Please subscribe

1085
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 2: to and rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts,

1086
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: radio dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts. See

1087
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:29,319
Speaker 2: you again next episode.

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00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 1: We're finished talking