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Speaker 1: It's time to get inside the Giants Huttle on Giants

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Speaker 1: dot com, the Giants, the Giants Podcast Network. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the newest edition of the Giant Subtle Podcast. John Smoke

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Speaker 1: with you today's guest Pro Football Focus Chief revenue officer

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Speaker 1: and data scientist, George Schahrury will be with George and

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Speaker 1: just a second. But first I want to remind folks

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Speaker 1: you can find the Giant Subtle Podcast on Giants dot com,

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Speaker 1: on the Giants Mobile appen all your favorite podcast platforms.

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Speaker 1: Find the subscribe and if you're an Apple podcast and

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Speaker 1: you like what you hear, you can leave a five

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Speaker 1: star positive review. Let's get to our guest, George, did

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Speaker 1: I nail the name for the second straight year? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: You're improving, you know, year over year improvement there. You

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Speaker 1: came in, you had a great rookie season, um, and

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Speaker 1: it's just getting better from there. Man. So I appreciate it,

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Speaker 1: really well done. I try to give everyone encouragement. Some

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Speaker 1: of it is a little more you know, fake than others.

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Speaker 1: I just gotta you know, I feel bad. Some people

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Speaker 1: really try and it just doesn't come out very well.

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Speaker 1: But I'm I'm here for improvement. I'm here to help

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Speaker 1: people and I want to see you succeed. But you,

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Speaker 1: my man, has continually set the bar. So I'm happy

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Speaker 1: to be back while someone I could tell your skills

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Speaker 1: and at an executive at a high powered football company

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Speaker 1: are being put to good use of buttering people up. George,

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Speaker 1: very well done, and then make it this far for nothing. There,

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to it. First of all, George,

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Speaker 1: why don't you tell the folks where they can find

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Speaker 1: your stuff? I know you do. You know everyone over

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Speaker 1: at PF kind of wears a million different hats, So

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Speaker 1: why don't you just kind of tell folks where they

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Speaker 1: can find the working and and the type of work

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Speaker 1: you guys are doing over there A PFF. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: appreciate it, um that we have a tod rate stuff

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Speaker 1: kind of regardless of what you're looking for. I think, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know our our fantasy team, We've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of new young guys that are just absolutely killing it. Um,

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Speaker 1: So if you're preparing to dominate your fantasy league, you

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Speaker 1: want to head over to PFF. We actually have a

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Speaker 1: little promo right now you get off some really good stuff. So, um,

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Speaker 1: go to PFF dot com. Check that out course to

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Speaker 1: be caring enough to the NFL season. The college season

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Speaker 1: will have you covered there. And then some really good

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Speaker 1: podcast obviously the p FF NFL Show with Sam Steve,

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Speaker 1: the FF Forecast with myself and Eric Eager, Um, the

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Speaker 1: two for One Draft podcast, which is normally just focused

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Speaker 1: on the draft, but they had Tyrone Matthew on their

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Speaker 1: podcast yesterday it was awesome. And then the PFF Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Podcast with Ian Hardest is fantastic. I haven't listened to

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Speaker 1: this many fantasy podcasts in my life. I'm on like

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Speaker 1: five straight and I'm not I wouldn't do that for

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Speaker 1: no reason. So um, a bunch of good stuff over

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Speaker 1: at at PFF dot com and on social media wherever

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Speaker 1: you wherever you have in the fancy. Well not on

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Speaker 1: what hopefully we'll have a fantasy football season to participate in.

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Speaker 1: We'll see. I don't even want to mention where we are,

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Speaker 1: but the time of this recording things changed so quickly.

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Speaker 1: But let's just hope everything works out, all right, George,

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Speaker 1: let's start here, and I've kind of mentioned this um

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Speaker 1: on the show earlier this year. By the way, folks,

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Speaker 1: what we'll do for the show is we'll kind of

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Speaker 1: talk about some of the general analytic discoveries PFF is

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Speaker 1: made over the last year, and then at the end

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Speaker 1: we're gonna focus on some Daniel Jones stuff. So this

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Speaker 1: is something I've mentioned George over the course of the

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Speaker 1: year on one of our shows that I thought it

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Speaker 1: was really interesting story you guys had at PF dot com, Uh,

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Speaker 1: the fragility of defense. And I think when you look

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Speaker 1: at defense, you know, people think about stars, but if

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Speaker 1: you think about it logically, the offense will dictate what

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Speaker 1: part of the defense they attack. And that's kind of

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Speaker 1: what you guys found as you've studied how you put

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Speaker 1: together a good defense. Yeah, I feel like almost a

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Speaker 1: broken record because I keep saying this is my favorite

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Speaker 1: article from the past year. And it's not a surprise

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Speaker 1: that um Eric Eager wrote it, because he's just a

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Speaker 1: fantastic job of pinpointing these really interesting studies and then

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Speaker 1: attacking them. And that was exactly kind of the genesis

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Speaker 1: of this thought, was looking at defenses and saying, Okay,

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Speaker 1: people make a really big deal out of let's let's

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Speaker 1: take Khalil Mac going to show of go bearts. Because

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Speaker 1: Khalil Mac is an awesome player, In fact, on I

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Speaker 1: think it was Monday or Tuesday, I was talking to

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Speaker 1: Mitchell Schwartz and as it was the best pass rusher

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, and he said, Khalil mack Um. But

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Speaker 1: you look at the teams that they're on, and Aaron

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Speaker 1: Donald's another really good example. T J. Watt was our

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Speaker 1: highest grade edge rusher last season, another great example on

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Speaker 1: teams that do not end up UM winning a ton

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Speaker 1: of games. And so why is that, you know, why

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Speaker 1: is the reason that these incredible defensive players are unable

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Speaker 1: to kind of raise um their team up. And one

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Speaker 1: of the ideas is that singular stars on defense just

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Speaker 1: can't impact the game the way UM, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: a quarterback or even a receiver can. Because of what

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Speaker 1: you just said, right, there are so many things that

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Speaker 1: the offense controls, and particularly attacking weak links on the defense.

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Speaker 1: So when you think about it, um, you know, kind

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Speaker 1: of across the defense. One of the places that that

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Speaker 1: really stands out in coverage because that's where in the

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Speaker 1: passing game the the offense can absolutely dictate where they

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Speaker 1: attack and generally causes the most damage. Because in today's NFL,

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Speaker 1: that's the passing game is really what wins, and it's

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Speaker 1: it's really a common sense to just think about, Okay,

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Speaker 1: if I have four defensive backs on the field or

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Speaker 1: five defensive backs on the field, and one of them

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Speaker 1: can't cover a five dollar check, then that's where the

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Speaker 1: offense is going to go. I mean, you know, how

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Speaker 1: often have we seen Tom Brady pick on the weakest

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Speaker 1: coverage linebacker or the weakest um you know, safety and

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Speaker 1: coverage by by attacking the slot um. It just happens

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Speaker 1: all the time. And so what Eric looked at was

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Speaker 1: how the basically the skill or ability of different members

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Speaker 1: of the defense um impacts you know, what would expect

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Speaker 1: to happen in the game. And it turns out that

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Speaker 1: like your third best corner, and want to give away

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Speaker 1: the whole thing, go read the article. But basically that

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Speaker 1: the thing that I always tells people is your third

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Speaker 1: corner is just as important as your first corner, like

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Speaker 1: if you're if not more like, if your third corner

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Speaker 1: can't cover anybody, then you're gonna get torched. Because offenses

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Speaker 1: nowadays have a guy or have a way to put

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Speaker 1: that guy in coverage against someone they want to attack.

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Speaker 1: And it makes a lot of sense when you think

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Speaker 1: about building a defense. When you look at the New

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Speaker 1: England Patriots, how have they done it? They have like

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Speaker 1: five different defensive backs maybe six that they can throw

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Speaker 1: out there in a situation that they're prepared to cover

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Speaker 1: somebody and cover them. Well, uh, they have not spent

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Speaker 1: money on singular defensive stars on the defensive line um

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Speaker 1: and a lot of their their linebackers that they put

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Speaker 1: in put in positions are either kind of specialty pass

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Speaker 1: rushers or they're put in coverage for a reason because

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Speaker 1: they can cover um. So it really sheds a light

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Speaker 1: on how you should build a defense in today's NFL

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Speaker 1: and on why some teams of expect the singular defensive

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Speaker 1: stars to really improve their team and then are let

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Speaker 1: down year after year. Now, you guys did find, though,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we've talked a lot about already with

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Speaker 1: you guys, how coverage is a little bit more important

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Speaker 1: than pass rush in terms of you know, predicting success

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Speaker 1: in victory. But you did find that having that big

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Speaker 1: time pass rusher does impact the rest of the defensive

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Speaker 1: line and help the defense rather than having that one

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Speaker 1: big time corner. Right. Yes, yes, so there's less there's

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Speaker 1: less um. Sorry, not less there are a fewer players

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Speaker 1: on the defensive line and fewer players that are rushing

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Speaker 1: the pass there then are covering, so you can have

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Speaker 1: you know, you can pay a Khalil Mack and he

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Speaker 1: can have a huge impact on your pass rush. And

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Speaker 1: what you highlighted there is that we generally over rate

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Speaker 1: that that impact on the game, right, because if you

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Speaker 1: can't cover and then look quarterbacks, you can get rid

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Speaker 1: of the ball to an open receiver less than two

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Speaker 1: half second. So you know, even if Khalil Mack is

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Speaker 1: continually beating up on your left or right tackle, if

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Speaker 1: you're unable to cover on the backside, it's not going

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Speaker 1: to have the impact that you hope it will. So

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Speaker 1: you're you're dead on and it's all about understanding the

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Speaker 1: potential payoff. We tend to focus on the impressiveness of something,

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Speaker 1: for example, a running back forcing in this tackle or

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Speaker 1: a defensive lineman. The guys that are big and massive

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Speaker 1: and athletic like they're impressive, right, So when Khuil mac

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Speaker 1: whoops three pound right tackle, you know, just right off

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Speaker 1: the bat, we are super impressed by it. But it

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Speaker 1: takes um you know, that anti fragility, right, it takes

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Speaker 1: the whole defense being solid to make that continuously show

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Speaker 1: up on the statute. Did you guys find an impact

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Speaker 1: though that having a star on defense can help the

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Speaker 1: players around them or was that not found? It can,

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Speaker 1: but it's far less than say, on the offense. So um,

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Speaker 1: and to follow another term, it's like a forced multi applier, right,

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Speaker 1: so you know how much will bringing in a big

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Speaker 1: you know, a new quarterback or a new wide receiver

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Speaker 1: that is much better than the previous one that they're

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Speaker 1: replacing have an impact. Well on offense, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be way bigger. It's going to multiply your offense a

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Speaker 1: little bit more than it will or a lot more,

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Speaker 1: i should say, than it will on defense. Because even

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Speaker 1: if I replace even if my number one corner is

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Speaker 1: bad and I bring in Sto Fond Gilmour, Yeah that'll

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Speaker 1: that'll have a big improvement, certainly, but it's still is

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Speaker 1: really going to depend on who the rest of those

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Speaker 1: guys are out uh, you know that are out there,

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Speaker 1: because when you face a good team, right and you

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Speaker 1: look at playoff teams, they're gonna going to attack your

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Speaker 1: weakness and so you have to really build um that

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Speaker 1: anti fragile defense and that takes more than just that

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Speaker 1: one star. Whereas on the offensive side, right, if I

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Speaker 1: had that one quarterback, he can he might be able

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Speaker 1: to pick on your weakness so much better, so much

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Speaker 1: more effectively. He's so much more accurate. That's going to

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Speaker 1: show up far more frequently. And you mentioned it an offense.

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Speaker 1: Obviously quarterback is one thing, but you did find that

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Speaker 1: having that star receiver can't have a bigger all around

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Speaker 1: impact than having that one singular star on defense. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you think about it this way, if you have that

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Speaker 1: once that star receiver, and I go, let me think

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Speaker 1: it's a good example here. Maybe look at the Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: You know they had they did not have a single

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Speaker 1: wide receiver last year that earned a top seventy five

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Speaker 1: PFF grade when lined out outside. So you just think

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Speaker 1: about those alpha receivers on the outside they didn't have.

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Speaker 1: They didn't have one, They didn't have anyone close to

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Speaker 1: even mediocrity in that in that area. And I think

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Speaker 1: we'll see you bring in DeAndre Hopkins, who all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden is going to just he's going to be

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Speaker 1: open all the time because he's DeAndre Hoppins, one of

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Speaker 1: the best wide receivers in the NFL. And when you

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Speaker 1: can do that, you force not only do you force

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Speaker 1: the hand of the defense, right they've all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden got to adjust their coverage, but you give your

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Speaker 1: quarterback a true a true first read, a true number

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Speaker 1: one option um and that all that helps you dictate

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Speaker 1: the offense in ways that you just simply couldn't perform

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Speaker 1: where you're not really even able to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: defense's weaknesses as you would want to. So, yes, the

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Speaker 1: star receiver is going to be able to impact the

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Speaker 1: the offense more than that star corner is going to

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Speaker 1: be for that reason. All right, we mentioned a couple

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Speaker 1: of big time pass rushers like Khalil mca already and

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Speaker 1: Aaron Donald. And you look at some guys, and you know,

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Speaker 1: some players just get sacks and other players just seem

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Speaker 1: to get pressures. You know, Letter Williams is one of

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Speaker 1: those guys, Right, He's somebody that's got a lot of

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Speaker 1: pressures over the course of his career, can't seem to

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Speaker 1: get sacks. So I know you guys tried to look

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Speaker 1: at this. Is there some type of secret sauce for

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Speaker 1: the guys that can get the sacks? And the guys

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Speaker 1: that can just get the pressures or is it really

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Speaker 1: just a matter of fate. There's always a few guys

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Speaker 1: who stand out. I think a couple That one guy

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Speaker 1: that that you mentioned, that you didn't mention that always

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Speaker 1: sticks out to me is Brandon Graham, who you know,

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Speaker 1: continually wins um and seems to just not end up

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Speaker 1: getting sacks sacks. It turns out, and Timo Risque wrote

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Speaker 1: a great piece m on on this that you can

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Speaker 1: go check out UM where he looks at the different

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Speaker 1: um factors involved in getting sacks, and it turns out

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Speaker 1: that a lot of getting sacks is being put in

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Speaker 1: a position to get them. In other words, there are

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Speaker 1: situational factors. It's as simple as down and distance that

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Speaker 1: really matter in terms of being able to convert pressures

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Speaker 1: into sacks, and that when you're accounting for those different situations,

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Speaker 1: there really isn't a tangible signal uh that says, hey,

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Speaker 1: getting sacks. Converting pressures into sacks is actually the skill.

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Speaker 1: It's really about being able to get pressure. And if

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Speaker 1: you're getting pressure one year, I expect you to get

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Speaker 1: pressure the next year. And if you get pressure one year,

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Speaker 1: I expect you to get sacks the next year, and

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Speaker 1: that the key there is knowing that actually knowing how

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Speaker 1: Welcoman gets pressure helps you predict their sacks going forward,

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Speaker 1: and how many sacks they got one year would predict

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Speaker 1: the number of sacks the next year. So um, I

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Speaker 1: still want to focus on pressures in terms of predicting

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Speaker 1: things going forward. Obviously, sacks tell a lot of the story,

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Speaker 1: right They tell a lot of the story of looking backwards,

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Speaker 1: and so it's still something that's important to look at.

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Speaker 1: And it actually turns out that one of the places

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Speaker 1: that I would look before I would look necessarily at

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Speaker 1: the skill of the defensive lineman is what is the quarterback?

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Speaker 1: You know, who's the quarterback back there? Because you know,

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Speaker 1: holding onto the ball for a long time right down

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Speaker 1: in distance, which has a huge impact on that. Those

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Speaker 1: situational factors really play a large part in whether there's

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Speaker 1: going to be a sack or not on the play,

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Speaker 1: And what the defender can really control where their skill

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Speaker 1: shines is whether they're able to get pressure or not well.

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Speaker 1: And it's funny, you've transitioned just perfectly to the next topic.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to hit George in You know when people

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Speaker 1: talk about pressure on quarterbacks, amount of times they get sacked.

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Speaker 1: Fingers always a point that the offensive line, right, they

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Speaker 1: go all the offensive is not good enough letting people

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Speaker 1: get to the quarterback, you know, not good. But you

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Speaker 1: guys have found that pressure and sack rates have a

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Speaker 1: lot more to do with the quarterback than it has

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Speaker 1: to do with the guys in front of him, Right,

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Speaker 1: it shouldn't be too surprising, um, two people, once you

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Speaker 1: kind of think about it a little bit and maybe

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Speaker 1: think about it from the perspective of an offensive lineman,

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Speaker 1: who by the way, you know, they offensive linemen are

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Speaker 1: are awesome, Like they are just fun, they're great people,

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Speaker 1: they're the best, They're fantastic. And if you're an offensive lineman,

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Speaker 1: you know, people just like people notice when you get

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Speaker 1: noticed as an offensive lineman, that's a bad thing, right,

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Speaker 1: because you get noticed because you get beat and you

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Speaker 1: give up a sack. Your job as an offensive lineman

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Speaker 1: is is really just to like go unnoticed. Right, If

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Speaker 1: no one calls your name for an entire game, you're

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Speaker 1: probably in good shapes. I mean, you haven't done anything

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Speaker 1: bad exactly exactly, um, And so you know, if you

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Speaker 1: think about it from their perspective, You go, Okay, I'm

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Speaker 1: a I'm an offensive lineman. If I do my job,

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Speaker 1: I've blocked the blocker for what two and half seconds?

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Speaker 1: And at that point in time, you know, depending on

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Speaker 1: the play call, um, I expect the ball to be

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Speaker 1: to be out. And so what can really impact whether

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Speaker 1: a quarterback is taking a sack or getting pressure is

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Speaker 1: how long they're holding onto the ball. And I say, quarterback,

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Speaker 1: I'm also throwing in a little bit of scheme, right,

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Speaker 1: you know that part of that is, hey, how long

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Speaker 1: developing are your plays going to be? But you can

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Speaker 1: do things to mitigate that, like play action, which generally

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Speaker 1: buys you a couple extra tenths of a second. But um,

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Speaker 1: for for the quarterback, having the ball in their hands

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Speaker 1: is a huge you know, that is the the ultimate

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of decision maker. And so when you

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Speaker 1: hold onto the ball for two tenths of the second

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Speaker 1: longer than your offensive line is trying to block or

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Speaker 1: doing their job been blocking um for that amount of time,

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Speaker 1: you've all of a sudden incurred a lot more a

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Speaker 1: lot higher probability taking on pressure and therefore of taking

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Speaker 1: on a sack. So um, the quarterback really should own

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Speaker 1: a large amount of the pressure rate and a large

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Speaker 1: amount of their sack rate. And we found temail found

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Speaker 1: that um taking sacks is from a quarterback's perspective, really

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Speaker 1: something of a skill. And a guy like a Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes who doesn't you know, he doesn't avoid pressure at

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Speaker 1: a particularly great rate, but he does not take sacks.

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Speaker 1: He took sacks blacks last season about six percent less

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Speaker 1: often UM than than you'd expect, which is ridiculous. Um.

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Speaker 1: Whereas a guy like um, uh maybe Ryan Tannehill who

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Speaker 1: had a really high sack rate last year. Uh, he

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Speaker 1: kind of held on the ball for a little bit.

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Speaker 1: He's not the most elusive guy on the planet. Um,

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Speaker 1: and he took sacks at a rate higher UM than

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Speaker 1: we would have expected, and given kind of the situational

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Speaker 1: factors that he had, so taking sacks interestingly and no

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Speaker 1: one would ever guess this, right, But like sacks are

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Speaker 1: almost more indicative of a quarterback skill than they are

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Speaker 1: um uh defensive alignment skill. Right, because we have a

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Speaker 1: way to measure defensive alignment skill with pressures UM that

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Speaker 1: are more indicative of how good they are as a

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Speaker 1: pass threshure for a quarterback taking sacks and avoiding sacks

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Speaker 1: to the skill. And I've seen a lot of studies

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Speaker 1: where a quarterback takes a sack on a drive. You're

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Speaker 1: looking at like failure rate. There's it's very rare for

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Speaker 1: teams to score off those sacks. It was a big place.

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Speaker 1: And and and we're gonna touch back on, you know,

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Speaker 1: holding the ball a little bit when we get to

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Speaker 1: our Daniel Jones section at the end here. That's a

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Speaker 1: little teams from the Giant Fans were gonna go deep

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Speaker 1: into some Daniel Jones stuff. Um. One of the thing

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Speaker 1: I want to touch on real quick, Jordan before we

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Speaker 1: get there is you guys did a study that I

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Speaker 1: thought was interesting on how quickly players at different positions

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Speaker 1: that get drafted um kind of reach their potential and

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Speaker 1: and find their peak performance. And from what I could tell,

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Speaker 1: most guys the jump comes in year two. But there

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Speaker 1: were a couple of exceptions to that role on the

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Speaker 1: offensive line and an edge rusher. Yeah, and that's that's

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Speaker 1: one of the things you talked about earlier with you know,

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Speaker 1: the stability at different positions and and also looking at

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Speaker 1: where you're going to get um. You know, in drafting,

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Speaker 1: where am I going to get that peak performance. And

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Speaker 1: if I'm going to get peak performance from an offensive

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Speaker 1: lineman and a pass rusher deep deeper into their career,

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Speaker 1: maybe year four, year five, and then that's going to

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Speaker 1: continue for a little bit longer into their career, that

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Speaker 1: should change the calculus a little bit on on how

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Speaker 1: you draft and UM. You know, offensive linemen I think

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Speaker 1: are a really good example. It's obviously a very hard

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Speaker 1: position to play. UM. Oftentimes guys come in and they're

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Speaker 1: you know, they're moving. Sometimes they're moved you know, from

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Speaker 1: fact or reguard or you know, switch sides or whatever

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Speaker 1: it is. UM, and so there's certainly a learning curve there,

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Speaker 1: and there's also kind of a you know, uh, athletic

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Speaker 1: match ration right for you know, those big players having

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Speaker 1: to play against guys that are just they've had that training,

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Speaker 1: they are absolute beasts, and so you see kind of

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a delay there, whereas if you

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Speaker 1: look at like a running back for example, where running

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Speaker 1: backs can come in and and almost dominate right from

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Speaker 1: the from the jump. UM, and so learning about how

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Speaker 1: positions mature and how deep into their career you can

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Speaker 1: expect them to play it near their peak really help.

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Speaker 1: You know, you think about team building and when you're

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Speaker 1: watching the draft kind of frame, you know how you

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Speaker 1: might expect some of these prospects to develop over time.

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Speaker 1: And I want to get to quarterback here because that's

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Speaker 1: obviously significant to Giant fans. And by the way, so

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Speaker 1: the message there from George for Giant fans, don't panicked

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Speaker 1: if Wi Hernandez hasn't taken a big jump yet only

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Speaker 1: two years in the same thing for Lorenzo quarter You

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Speaker 1: know there are some time for oceans in and has

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Speaker 1: just played one year, so patients have required at those

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Speaker 1: specific positions. Quarterback, though, Georgia people will be watching Daniel

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Speaker 1: Jones very closely in year two. That's where the jump

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Speaker 1: seems to happen for most quarterbacks right in their second season.

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Speaker 1: And does the fact that they've changed schemes and offensive coordinators,

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Speaker 1: does that change the formula a little bit since Jones

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Speaker 1: is almost starting from scratch again. Yeah, you know, the

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Speaker 1: scheme thing is is very interesting. Um, the quarterback position

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Speaker 1: is one where you know, whenever someone says, hey, the

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Speaker 1: sushions sit on the bench and learn for a year.

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Speaker 1: I pushed back on that because it's like, no, it's

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Speaker 1: a valuable year, you know, of of understanding, and if

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Speaker 1: you're drafting a guy high, um, you want them out there.

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Speaker 1: You know you're you're drafting them high for a reason,

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Speaker 1: and that's you know, that's exactly what you find is, Hey,

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Speaker 1: we can see these jumps happen. Um, you know we

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Speaker 1: can see them reach. You know, they're close to peak

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Speaker 1: performance within the rookie contracts. So don't delay that because

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Speaker 1: you want to find out right you do not want

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Speaker 1: to be the team that is sitting there going I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure whether we want to extend the sky or

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Speaker 1: not because we haven't seen enough. And so you know,

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Speaker 1: I think it was it was good of the of

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Speaker 1: the Giants, and it's it's a good thing for Giants

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Speaker 1: fans in general that they saw good chunk of Daniel

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Speaker 1: Jones last year. Now, the changing of offensive scheme is

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Speaker 1: going to be interesting because and I'd be curious, you

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Speaker 1: know your thoughts here. Certainly do you view it as

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Speaker 1: an upgrade necessarily in scheme, because I you know, it

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Speaker 1: depending on who you talked to do the paper go

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Speaker 1: you know, man, I really wish they had gone with

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Speaker 1: you know, someone a little younger, a little more innovative. Um,

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Speaker 1: there's not a lot of love out there for what

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys have done over the past two years. So um,

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Speaker 1: that is a really interesting, you know concept to think

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Speaker 1: about it. You're switching coordinator, and you're switching in a

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Speaker 1: time where you probably haven't had as much of a

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Speaker 1: runway to prepare, right, you know, who knows what people

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Speaker 1: have been able to do during the quarantine. You know,

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Speaker 1: obviously everyone's situation is a little bit different, but you

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Speaker 1: would think that even if a really progressive and finding

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Speaker 1: ways to to learn this stuff, that you're going to

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Speaker 1: be a little bit behind where you'd normally be. So

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Speaker 1: you know, I wouldn't want to use it as an excuse, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, going into next year saying oh, well, look

431
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: it was his first year in this scheme. Um, but

432
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: I might give it a little more runway going into

433
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 1: the season. I wouldn't be I wouldn't be judging based

434
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: on weeks you know, one, two, and three. I'd give

435
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: it a little bit of time see how that goes.

436
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: But that's part of the process too, is being able

437
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:32,719
Speaker 1: to learn and quickly digest and quickly execute um the offense. Right,

438
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: So that's I think one of the reasons we do

439
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 1: see that jump happened is that, right, you have that

440
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: year under your belt, you're used to, you know, some

441
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: of the intricacies at the NFL game that are different

442
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 1: from the college game, and at that point you have

443
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 1: that confidence to just really actually play the game of

444
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 1: football instead of worrying about the kind of little things

445
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 1: on the periphery. It's funny, George, I've mentioned that two

446
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 1: fans on our shows that you know it could be

447
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: a slow starter for the offense. Then throwing the fact

448
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: that the Giants first four games this year are ends.

449
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: The Steelers, the Bears, the forty Niners and the Rams

450
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,199
Speaker 1: all top ten past defenses last year, so that is

451
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: that is a challenging start for a quarterback with no

452
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: offseason and depending on how this goes, maybe two weeks

453
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 1: of padded practices before the teams played their first regular

454
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 1: season games. So yeah, interesting um sticking at quarterback and

455
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 1: we'll get the Jones specifically in a moment, I thought

456
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 1: Sam Monson did a really interesting article. And you guys

457
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: have talked a lot about how you know, the running

458
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: game is helpful, but it's you know, passing is where

459
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: you guys are gonna win games, score points, game yards,

460
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 1: and be productive. But I thought his little look at

461
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: how different quarterbacks perform when they have to throw. I

462
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: think it was more than forty passes per game, and

463
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: the list of the guys that did the best when

464
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 1: they did was not surprising. And I find that interesting.

465
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: Where you look at the guys on that list that

466
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: played best when they throw over forty passes, they're the

467
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: guys that you would consider some of the best quarterbacks

468
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: in the league, the Tom Brady's, the Russell Wilson's guys

469
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: like that? Does that tell you that maybe, even if

470
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: running the ball more doesn't necessarily directly with its production,

471
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: help you win, asking less of your quarterback, depending on

472
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 1: who your quarterback is, might help your team win games

473
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 1: because you're not putting them in positions that might lead

474
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: to more failures. It's interesting, um, you know, and you

475
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 1: mentioned that list. I mean it's it's Patrick Homes and

476
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: then a bunch of savvy veterans and then you know,

477
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: you've got Shaun Watson, Russell Wilson in there. Who who

478
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: are guys that you know, you just think of as

479
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 1: guys that, no matter what, they're gonna kind of lead

480
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: you back, and that is that is where I would

481
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: think about it. What's the score? Generally in situations where

482
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: you you're forced to throw right that lead to these

483
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: high um these higher number the high attempt games. And

484
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: if you're losing in a game, the chances are that

485
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 1: you are playing a pretty good team, right, And I

486
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: think that's where this that's why I am so impressed

487
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 1: by this, because if you were throwing a lot, you're

488
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 1: throwing a lot, you know, to come back or just

489
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: to stay ahead against another very good offense. That's that's

490
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 1: where the pressure is really on. If you can design

491
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 1: an offense where your quarterback can come out and you know,

492
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: just run a couple of plays off of play action

493
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 1: and you score touchdown a lot like what we saw,

494
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 1: Like the Titans were on a role last year offensively,

495
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: Ryan Taniel would come out. I mean he didn't have

496
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: he wasn't throwing the ball forty plus times, but they

497
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 1: were so efficient on offense that he didn't have to.

498
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: They get these leads and the other team wasn't wasn't

499
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: capable of coming back, and so you're able to you know,

500
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: you want to ask your quarterback obviously to do as

501
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: little as possible, because you don't want to meet that

502
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: that point where they can't do something. Whereas guys, you know,

503
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 1: the truly elite players that Patrick Mahomes, the Tom Brady

504
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: and his primes, the Aaron Rodgers and their primes, the

505
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 1: Peyton Manning and their primes, the limit almost didn't exist

506
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 1: right the place where they couldn't perform that was in

507
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: a different universe. And so you felt more comfortable obviously

508
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: with them throwing the ball more often and when they

509
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: had to, we're going to play better, um than the

510
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 1: average quarterbacks. So yeah, I mean, it's almost like asking,

511
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: It's almost like saying, if you go into this and

512
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: you go, okay, well, look, my quarterback is not going

513
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 1: to do well when he has to throw a lot,

514
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 1: so we should just start off by running the ball

515
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 1: all the time, Like well, you're you're putting the cart

516
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: before the horse there, right. The goal is to be

517
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 1: winning the game and have it in hand, and that's

518
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 1: always everyone's goal, and whatever you have to do to

519
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: score points, you should do. Um. What leads to those

520
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: high number of attempts is the kind of the game

521
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: script and the score of the game, and that is

522
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: dictated by what you do at the beginning, Yeah, that

523
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: makes sense. So I guess then, I think one thing

524
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 1: you guys do well at PFF is that you try

525
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 1: to take old football cliches and kind of you know,

526
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: destroy him and say that really doesn't make any sense.

527
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: But in this case, playing with the lead does matter,

528
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 1: and it does really help your offense operate. No, absolutely,

529
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: And where people always getting mixed up is the causation

530
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: verse correlations thing. Right, So they look at a game,

531
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: they go, okay, we won by four, oh, and we

532
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: we won the rushing battle. Therefore, winning the rushing battle

533
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 1: causes you to win the game, and you want to

534
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: look at it. You know, it's not all points in

535
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 1: the game are created equal. How did you build your lead?

536
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: And if you want to score points, which is how

537
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: you would build a lead, you want to look at

538
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: the plays that are that are most likely to lead

539
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,239
Speaker 1: to scoring, and those are passing plays. So generally we

540
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 1: conflate the two and we think, oh, just because I

541
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 1: ended up running the ball for the entire second half

542
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: because the other team couldn't find a way to score,

543
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: you know I had this big lead that therefore that's

544
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: what I need to do starting out every game. And

545
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:47,959
Speaker 1: really what you want to do is be as efficient

546
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 1: as you possibly can on offense, put up points, as

547
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: as many points as you can as early as possible,

548
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: so that you're not in a situation where it's a

549
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 1: close game or you have to come back and win

550
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: at the end. UM. And you know, as simple as

551
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: that sounds, it's often hard for us to look at

552
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: the end result and pull apart the two. Um. The

553
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,239
Speaker 1: Titans were a great example this year. I mean, in

554
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: building a lot of those leads in the playoffs. UM,

555
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: they had some massive pass plays and some really good

556
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 1: performance UM from you know, Ryan Tannehill and a J.

557
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 1: Brown that lead to you know, that lead to points,

558
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: and then of course Derrick Henry was just mauling people,

559
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 1: you know, you know with the lead. UM. But you know,

560
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: it's important to understand when those things happen because that matters, alright.

561
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 1: The final one before we get to Jones, specifically, predictive

562
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: stats for quarterbacks. This is something I think is interesting

563
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,719
Speaker 1: when you try to predict success for a quarterback from

564
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: year to year and even from college to the pros,

565
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: and they're trying to figure out, you know, what quarterbacks

566
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: are going to be good, So what did you guys

567
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: find is the best way to figure out whether a

568
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 1: quarterback was lucky in a year, whether or not he

569
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: was truly good, and whether or not that's going to continue.

570
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: What type of numbers should you be looking at? Yeah,

571
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: this is also kind of counterintuitive for most because of

572
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: what we see. So if you're watching, you know, the

573
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: highlights of the game, you're going to see the really

574
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: impressive plays. Right. You might see if you're watching the

575
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: Chief's game, Patrick Mames running from left to right and

576
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: then making a spin move and going back to the

577
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: right and throwing it across the field, and you go, man,

578
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 1: that's amazing. Um, And it certainly is. But those plays

579
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: are small sample plays, and they're also you know, big plays.

580
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: Big positive plays oftentimes are take a confluence of things

581
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 1: going right right, The receiver has to get open, um.

582
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: You can't have an offensive lineman completely blow block all

583
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: these things. So you want to look at the pieces

584
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: that are really repeatable for a quarterback, and the things

585
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: that tend to be the most repeatable are avoiding negative plays.

586
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 1: And so we grade obviously every play, and some plays

587
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: get a negative grade, some players get a positive grade.

588
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: And if you think about negatively grade plays. Those are

589
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: throwing thos where look, you should be able to put

590
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: the ball on the money, but you make a throw

591
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: that's just uncatchable. The receiver can't possibly catch it. That's

592
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: a hugely negative thing because you need to give your

593
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: receiver a chance, right um. Another example would be holding

594
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: the ball too long and taking the sack. Right You

595
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: talked about how negative that is. It's incredibly bad for

596
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: your team. But those are things that we find to

597
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: be pretty consistent for quarterbacks. Avoiding negative plays is a

598
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: quarterback trade. And so if I'm looking at things that

599
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: predict how good a quarterback will be going forward, I

600
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: actually want to look at how well they avoid negative

601
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: plays instead of how well they created positive place because

602
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: we've seen positive play rates fluctuate a lot depending on

603
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: you know, are your receivers healthy, that you have a

604
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: functioning offensive line, you know, there's all these little factors

605
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 1: that can come into play. But avoiding negative plays is

606
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: something that is by and by far at quarterback trade,

607
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: and so that's the first place I look. The second

608
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: thing I look is how does a quarterback perform in

609
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: a clean pocket, Because not only does that happen more

610
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: frequently but it's also something that can be practiced, right,

611
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: you are practicing the reads and the play design, assuming, look,

612
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: I'm going to be able to get two and a

613
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 1: half or two point seven or two point eight seconds

614
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 1: to throw, And so when you see that happen in

615
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: the game, that's something that's indicative of what the quarterback

616
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: has been able to practice and been able to repeat

617
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: um and so that tends to be far more stable

618
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: than play under pressure. So those are the two places

619
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 1: that I would start off with, and surprisingly enough, those

620
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: are two plays places that we're gonna go when we

621
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: talk about Daniel Jones here. So let's start here, George,

622
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: I basically watched every snap over the last month. I

623
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: looked at every advance that you guys have on PFF,

624
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: sorting through situations and everything like that. And this is

625
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: the kind of overall conclusion I came to. And then

626
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: we'll get to some of the specific stuff in a moment.

627
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 1: If you and this is to the point you just made.

628
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: If you watched Daniel Jones is highlight reel, You're like, damn,

629
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: this guy is an elite quarterback. Like some of the

630
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: amazing throws he makes, You're like, wow, that's pretty aren't fantastic,

631
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: but the consistency of it obviously is something. And then

632
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: the negative plays that go along with it. So a

633
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: lot of his greatest strengths, you know, putting balls into

634
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: small spots, you know, playing well in the face of pressure,

635
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: standing in the pocket, throwing in the face of pressure.

636
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: These are all things that are positives for a quarterback,

637
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 1: but they lead to too many negative plays. So for him,

638
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: cutting down on those negative plays has to be the focus.

639
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: And is it easier for a quarterback to do that

640
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: earlier in their career. I mean, once you set a baseline,

641
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 1: I imagine it's harder for the quarterback to kind of

642
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: emerge from that. We've seen that with Jamis Winston, right,

643
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: But do you think for a younger quarterback with only

644
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: twelve games under his belt, that improving in that area

645
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: avoiding those negative plays is something that Jones can do

646
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: in year two? Yeah? I was. You know, It's it's

647
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: timely that we're talking because I am working on kind

648
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: of ranking the sophomore quarterbacks going in for uh and

649
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: NFL Network, Kay, And I was thinking I was looking

650
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: at Daniel Jones and um, you know, everyone kind of

651
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: likes to think that we were hating on Daniel Jones

652
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: UM in the draft process, and I thought he was overdrafted. Um.

653
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: But I'm in no way looking for the negatives. I

654
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: was looking for the positives. And you hit the nail

655
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: on the head. In terms of look, he had too

656
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: many really bad plays. Last year. He was thirty third

657
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: out of thirty five quarterbacks in turnover worthy play rate.

658
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 1: By the way, you could get all of these numbers

659
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: that that I'm referencing in our Quarterback Annual UM with

660
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: the the p f F Edge subscription. I have to

661
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: throw that out there. I legitimately I use this thing

662
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: all the time. It's a great way to prepare for

663
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: the season. By the way, I have it printed out

664
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: sitting on my desk at work. I do. It's great.

665
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: There you go. I don't have it printed out in

666
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 1: large part because I don't have a printer, but it is.

667
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: It is one of the many tabs that is almost

668
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: always open, along with way too many Google docs and

669
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 1: Google sheets. Um. But but you hit the nail on

670
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 1: the head there, so turn over worthy play rate, think

671
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: about um. And this is the way I explained to people,

672
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: either a throw that should be intercepted and sometimes it

673
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: isn't cost sometimes it is, but we grade it the

674
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 1: same way because we grade the process, not the result

675
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,959
Speaker 1: or like a really bad fumble. And that's a place

676
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 1: where Daniel Jones really struggled, right, He had some really

677
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: not great fumbles. Um. Even think about that that Tampa

678
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 1: Bay game which everyone you know, just continued to reference

679
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: because of how well he played under pressure and you

680
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 1: know that the the kind of heroism in that game

681
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 1: that we saw, but you know there was there was

682
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: a really bad fumble in that game. Um, and that

683
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 1: was an issue for for DJ last year. But turnover

684
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: worthy plays are still a very small portion of the overall,

685
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: you know, body of work that a quarterback has. And

686
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: when I look at all negatively graded plays that include

687
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: you know, less less dire throws, right, just uncatchable throws

688
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: that aren't in danger being intercepted. But we're uncatchable bad sacks,

689
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 1: you know that. Look, they happen a little more frequently

690
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: than a fumble. Will. He actually was out of thirty

691
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: five quarterbacks and avoiding negatively graded places. So that gives me,

692
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 1: that gives me some hope there that you know, I

693
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: would negatively greater place as a whole are far more

694
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: stable than turnover worthy place. Um. Now that being said,

695
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: it's not never a good thing to see. You know,

696
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: a guy like you mentioned Jameis Winston, right, um, who

697
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: makes a ton of like what are you doing throws?

698
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: But I would be more worried if they were reversed,

699
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: you know, I would be more worried if those two

700
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: rankings we're foot PLoP because, um, we've just seen mathematically

701
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 1: that turnover worthy play rate is something that fluctuates a

702
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 1: lot more than just their overall rate of making negative

703
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 1: place interesting. I think, by the way, if you break

704
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,359
Speaker 1: down those thirty one turn over worth he plays, ten

705
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: were fumbles and he had by the way, about four

706
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 1: let me think I think he had eight, and that

707
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: shows you that sometimes he just got sacked really quick

708
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: cats and bad luck I hit as he throw. He

709
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 1: had eight fumbles that you guys did not credit to

710
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 1: him as turnover worthy plays. So that's a fair amount

711
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: of fumbles. So that means there was some bad luck

712
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 1: involved there and you can improve ball protection. Um. I

713
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: think he had nine dropped interceptions, which is I think

714
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 1: is something that kind of gets overlooked a little bit.

715
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: And you brought up the accuracy there, George, and to

716
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 1: your point, and you know you guys track accuracy, and

717
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,240
Speaker 1: again you can find all this on on pf dot com.

718
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: He was in the top half of the league and

719
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 1: avoiding uncatchable passes, but a number where I think he

720
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: was a little bit too high is passes that you

721
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: kind of term catchable but inaccurate. So it was on

722
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 1: the frame. The receiver can make the play, but maybe

723
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 1: you give the defensive player a chance to get the football,

724
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 1: maybe you limit run after the catch. So in terms

725
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: of precision accuracy, to me at least, that's where you

726
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 1: can see Jones get a little bit better. He's good

727
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 1: at putting the ball on the receiver, maybe just be

728
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 1: a little bit more precise. Yeah, this was literally a

729
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 1: conversation that that Eric and I were having about Daniel Jones,

730
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 1: because look, he he was under pressure of his dropbacks.

731
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 1: Now that's not all his offensive line's faults. As we

732
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: have discussed, his average time to throw was above the

733
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: league average, up two point nine uh seconds from snap

734
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: to pass, and the league average got two point seven

735
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: two tenths of a second. There By the way, is

736
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: a lot difference. Two tenths of the second. Um, you know,

737
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: below the average is about the fastest that any quarterback

738
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 1: what we'll have, and I think it was it's usually

739
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: Drew Brees Eli Manning was always up there. Actually, Um,

740
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: you always got rid of the ball quickly for you know,

741
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 1: a variety of different reasons. But um, I think Daniel

742
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: Jones had a little bit of fearlessness that that endeared

743
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 1: people to him for obvious reasons, like that's a cool

744
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: thing to have as a quarterback, especially you know after

745
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 1: kind of some of the things that Manning went through

746
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 1: at the end of his his run in New York.

747
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: So I understand in that I would say one of

748
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: the places where I would look to see that that

749
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 1: pinpoint accuracy show up is if you're taking the pressure

750
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: rate down, if you're getting the ball out of the

751
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: hands quickly, are you able to make more pinpoint throws

752
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 1: because you're a little more comfortable, you're getting the ball

753
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: out more quickly, you're not worried about pressure, you know,

754
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: showing up um and and derailing your ability to make

755
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 1: a clean throwing motion. So that would be a place

756
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: that I'd be keenly looking this year. Are we seeing

757
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 1: that rate of what we deem accurate passes. So that's

758
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 1: basically a throw that's on the quarter sorry, on the

759
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: receiver's frame. It might not be perfectly in stride, but

760
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 1: it's not something that I'm you know, adjusting as a

761
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: receiver dramatically to catch. Um is that rate going up,

762
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: because as you mentioned, he was in the bottom third

763
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: of the league um in making accurate throws, but he

764
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 1: did at least avoid the kind of you know, the

765
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 1: ones that you can't live with, which are the uncatchable throws.

766
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 1: So it'll be a very interesting see. And I mean,

767
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: you draft Andrew Thomas, guy that pff lobs our offensive

768
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: tackle number one in the draft, so you hope, you

769
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 1: know that improves a little bit. I would look definitely

770
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: to take that time to throw down to try and

771
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 1: mitigate the pressure numbers there. Um. And then you have

772
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 1: to rely on some receivers and you know, if you

773
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:21,879
Speaker 1: throw se Kwon Barkley in there, you know I'd put

774
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 1: him and have him running way more routes uh and

775
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 1: and some of the tight ends you know, to to

776
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: get open because that ultimately is going to decide a

777
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: lot of things. Right, you can only you can only

778
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,319
Speaker 1: make positive throws that they're there to be had. It's

779
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 1: kind of what I always think about, and so they

780
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: need to be there for Daniel Jones to make them.

781
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 1: You know, George, it's funny you said that. And I

782
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 1: saw the exact same thing watching all of Jones's plays,

783
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 1: and the strength was the weakness. Right pressure would come,

784
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: he would just hang in the pocket and throw it.

785
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: And if you look at it, I broke it down

786
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: time in the pocket with with no pressure and pressure

787
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 1: when he was pressure. Jones was in the top ten

788
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: in the league in terms of average time to throw,

789
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 1: so he wasn't like running around buying time. He looked

790
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: at pressure, he goes, I don't care, and he threw

791
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 1: the ball. Now that's gonna probably lead to some sacks

792
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,959
Speaker 1: and fumbles, right, because he's just sitting there and trying

793
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: to make a play. But I thought the interesting thing

794
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: that I looked at if you look at his average

795
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 1: time in the pocket, especially um for straight dropbacks on

796
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 1: places where there were no pressure, I think he was

797
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: thirty three or thirty five qualifying quarterbacks in terms of

798
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 1: time to throw. So and if you look at his

799
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: overall stats on plays where he gets rid of the ball,

800
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:27,439
Speaker 1: quicker he plays better so I think to me, even

801
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 1: though he played better verse pressure relative to the rest

802
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 1: of the league than he did without it, which I

803
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 1: think again is is a good sign of high level play.

804
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 1: I think if him getting rid of the ball quicker,

805
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 1: will he make him play better, be more accurate, and

806
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 1: it will overall reduce that pressure. So I think one

807
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 1: thing with Jones is, you know, I think this is

808
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 1: two for all rookies. Maybe you guys have found this.

809
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 1: You look at the average time to throw a list

810
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 1: on that you guys track. Aside from the mobile quarterbacks,

811
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: which are always gonna have higher numbers there right bu

812
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 1: they're running around Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson doing all sorts

813
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 1: of crazy stuff. Um, the guys at the bottom of

814
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: that list are generally young quarterbacks because it takes him

815
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: a little bit longer to you know, see what's going

816
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 1: on process. So, for me, a huge thing for Jones

817
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: this year that will help every part of his play

818
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: is making quicker decisions and getting rid of the ball faster,

819
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 1: because it just impacts everything. It's I think you hit

820
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: the nail on the end there. That's one of the

821
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,439
Speaker 1: reasons that, Look, it's a tough it's a tough place

822
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 1: to be as a rifie quarterback. But you can learn

823
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 1: quickly and um, if you don't, that's that's obviously a

824
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 1: bad sign. And if you do, you can see that jump. Um.

825
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: But but you're right. I mean, so many young guys

826
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 1: come in there, someone that I think about who, Um,

827
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,240
Speaker 1: I don't think this was. This certainly was not because

828
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 1: he couldn't like get rid of the ball more quickly,

829
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,839
Speaker 1: because he couldn't read what was going on with Andrew Luck.

830
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: But he was the guy that certainly knew what was

831
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 1: going on. But he was fearless, right and he just

832
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: stood there and he took I mean, probably one of

833
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: the reasons that he's not in the NFL right now. Um,

834
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 1: he just was fearless and it cost him dearly. And

835
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: we actually saw with Frank Reich, and I thought it

836
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 1: was going to save his career honestly. Was that they

837
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: were able to do that. They were able to get

838
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,879
Speaker 1: the offensive scheme to kind of shift and say, Okay,

839
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: we're gonna get some throws out quickly, we're gonna get

840
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 1: guys open on some quick game stuff. Um, and you're

841
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 1: going to deliver the ball accurately as he did and

842
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: he had a great season that year. Um, it's something

843
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 1: that they can see Chiefs do a great job of.

844
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: They I think only the Packers um ran more quick

845
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 1: in than the Chiefs did. We always think about Mahomes

846
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: on these long developing plays. Patrick Mahomes is amazing on

847
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 1: quick throws. You know, he doesn't miss and so and

848
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 1: he has receivers that are getting open not obviously is

849
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: a key component of it. So, um, you know, seeing

850
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones process things more quickly but also be willing

851
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 1: to get rid of the ball more quickly, which I think,

852
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: you know, something that we've seen um with with other

853
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: really great quarterbacks, will be important for this season. Yeah.

854
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: The final thing I wanna ask you, George about Jones

855
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 1: is just basic aggressiveness, because you can kind of judge

856
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 1: aggressive in two different ways. Right, the amount of time

857
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 1: the number of times you throw down the field is one,

858
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: and I think Jones could probably throw deep a little

859
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: bit more frequently, is to be a little more accurate,

860
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: especially outside the numbers on those throws. That's one. But

861
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: I think the place where he was extremely aggressive, and

862
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 1: you guys, I think he was top five in the league,

863
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 1: top ten in contested throws and contested catches on passes

864
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: he threw. And I think it's just a simple matter

865
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 1: of him being more prudent, Like it doesn't make sense

866
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 1: to try to complete a seven yard pass in between

867
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 1: three defenders, Like the benefit just does not outweigh the

868
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: potential costs there. And I think that's something he could

869
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 1: figure out. I agree, And to me, that is that

870
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 1: is a lot of situational components, right. So one of

871
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 1: the reasons that I would have liked to see, you know,

872
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 1: some new receiving talent in there is do you feel

873
00:43:58,160 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 1: really confident that you have guys that are gonna be

874
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 1: able to separate consistently? And if you do, then you

875
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: should be able to avoid a lot of those you know,

876
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 1: a lot of those situations. But you're so right it.

877
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,720
Speaker 1: You know, he is fearless almost to a fault. And

878
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: you know, if you can take two to three of

879
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 1: those prayers out of the out of the game plan

880
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 1: every every every single week, and instead, you know, said, Okay,

881
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna actually deliver you know this, uh, this three

882
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: or five yards plant that you know he's gonna be

883
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:28,919
Speaker 1: open eighty percent of the time. That's where I'm gonna look,

884
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna wait for this contested jump ball, you know,

885
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 1: but for another three seconds, um, I think I can

886
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 1: go a really long way. We'll see the accuracy. You know.

887
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 1: That would be a place where you find out more

888
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 1: about the accuracy. Certainly right, throwing up contested um catches,

889
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 1: it's really hard to judge accuracy. And we in a

890
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: lot of those situations, on the contested situations, right, we're

891
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 1: not We're very rarely going to deem something pinpoint accurate

892
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,439
Speaker 1: because you are just kind of throwing it up right, um.

893
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,399
Speaker 1: And so that would be a place where will learn

894
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 1: a lot more about Jones if you start to make

895
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: more of those designed read throws. All right, George, final question,

896
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: This is kind of overarching thing because you've said you'd

897
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 1: like to kind of mention this and mentioned to talk

898
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 1: to this about people when you do other you know,

899
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,720
Speaker 1: meetings and such. First down production. We had Warren Sharp

900
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 1: on last week. He talked about the importance of first

901
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 1: down production and a lot of fans still think a

902
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: four yard round, a five yard run, second and five

903
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: second and six, that's great, that's success. But all the

904
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: data you guys have compiled says that's not the case,

905
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: and you're better off trying to avoid third downs altogether.

906
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 1: Can you can kind of just talk about that overarching

907
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 1: theme that kind of I think informs a lot of

908
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: the work you guys do. Yeah, people, you you asked

909
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: this great question the last year and the year before.

910
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 1: It was like, look, I'm on first and ten. You know,

911
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 1: it's a four yard game? Really that exciting? Should I

912
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 1: be that excited about it? And if you look at

913
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: your expected number of points you score on first and

914
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: ten relative to you know, second and six, you know

915
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 1: changes depending on where you are in the field, but

916
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 1: by and large that that's not test not a great

917
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 1: play for your offense. You're actually losing points. Um if

918
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:06,240
Speaker 1: you do that. And the same is true on second

919
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 1: and ten. You do not want to end up in

920
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 1: third and five. And a five yard run is beating expectation, right,

921
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: you know the yards per carry? If five is great,

922
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: you're excited about that. Um, So thinking about where you

923
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,879
Speaker 1: know where a path can potentially gets you not only

924
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: did you have a higher chance of you converting, which

925
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: avoids the third down altogether, but even if you don't convert,

926
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:31,840
Speaker 1: it gives you a chance to have a third and

927
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:35,439
Speaker 1: short where it is. I preach this all the time.

928
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 1: Certain short people should run the ball more off because

929
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:39,959
Speaker 1: you should be more willing to go far and fourth

930
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 1: and shorts you should be less afraid of failure. But

931
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: also that's where the expectation of a run at three

932
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 1: yard run a four yard run actually gets you a

933
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: first down. And so I think it's something that we

934
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,800
Speaker 1: can continue to grow in terms of UM thinking about

935
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: the game of football. UM. It's a place that if

936
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: coaches become more efficient with it, and we saw that

937
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 1: Ravens do a really good job of this last year. UM,

938
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: we'll see more exciting games because we'll see you know,

939
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 1: more scoring UM. And it's you know, it's a simple innovation.

940
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: I think those are always the best, right because UM,

941
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 1: they can have a really dramatic impact and they're generally

942
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 1: easy for people to understand. So UM, I think it's

943
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: a great way to think about the game. UM. And

944
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 1: it's one of those things that I'll continue to preach

945
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 1: and some people will yell at me about, but smart

946
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 1: people like you and your listeners will will learn from

947
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: it and be smarter for it. George, awesome stuff. My

948
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: friend always went by the way for giant fans out there.

949
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones was a top ten quarterback on third and

950
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 1: four or less last year, so that's where you want

951
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 1: to be. George, great stuff. Man. Always have fun doing

952
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: this with you. Maybe we'll do it again closer to

953
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 1: the draft, because I had like four or five draft

954
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 1: stories that I thought really interesting that but I didn't

955
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 1: think this was necessarily the best time to talk draft

956
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 1: because who knows what next year's draft is gonna be,

957
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 1: by the way, it could be a Jude for all

958
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,200
Speaker 1: you know, depending on when college football happens. But anyway,

959
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: awesome time, my friend, had a great time. Enjoy the

960
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 1: rest of your summer, and fully will be texting back

961
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 1: and forth about NFL football on about a month and

962
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: a half. God willing Man always appreciate it. Thanks so much.

963
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 1: That's George Schakruri. He's the chief revenue officer and a

964
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 1: data analyst for Pro Football Focus. I know I probably

965
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 1: eat these things up more than you guys do, but

966
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 1: I just think talking about general strategy and what help

967
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 1: what helps you win in the NFL is just really

968
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: really important. I love it. Um. I hope you guys

969
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,919
Speaker 1: learned something I know I did. UM, and just kind

970
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 1: of changes a little bit about the way you think

971
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 1: of the game and what you like about pro football focus.

972
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: Some of their findings might change some of your preconceived notions,

973
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 1: and you know, make you think about things that you

974
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 1: really thought were true and you believe, which, by the way,

975
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 1: is a good thing. Challenging your assumptions is something people

976
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: should be doing all the time and all walks of life.

977
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 1: It's good. But I think what you like is at

978
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 1: other times what their study show is logical to what

979
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 1: you see on the field. Right. You know that the

980
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:00,280
Speaker 1: fact that playing with the lead helps your quarterback should

981
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 1: not be a surprise. That that's what we've been taught

982
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: for a long time and the data shows that it's true.

983
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: So I hope you guys enjoyed this. I know I did.

984
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 1: I thought it was a lot of fun. We thank

985
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:10,839
Speaker 1: George for being with us. You can find him again

986
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: on PF Forecast and you can find all the data

987
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: we talked about today at PF dot com for George

988
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 1: on John Schmilk again. You can find the John Suttle

989
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 1: podcast on all your favorite podcast platforms, on the Giants

990
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: mobile app and the Giants dot Com slash podcast, where

991
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 1: you can find all of our podcast offerings, including Big

992
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 1: Blue Kickoff Live, our daily show from twelve to one,

993
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,399
Speaker 1: UH Giants re Want with Carl Banks, and of course

994
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: The Giants Huddle for George. I'm Schmilk. We'll see you

995
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 1: next time. Everybody, stay safe,