1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 2: You're in Washington, we have our eyes on Capitol Hills, 7 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 2: specifically on the Senate, after we spent weeks watching the 8 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: House of Representatives and the wrangling that it took to 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 2: get the House Republican Conference in line to pass President 10 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill as it is actually this 11 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 2: legislation is actually now called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Remember, 12 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: it took a lot of wrestling arm wrestling from the 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, but also from President 14 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 2: Trump himself in some ways. Arguably, Joe, it's President Trump 15 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: that's acting as the majority whip. I don't know where 16 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 2: Tom Emmer is and in any of this, but the 17 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 2: question is going to be can President Trump play that 18 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 2: role as well? In the United States Senate, where the 19 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: dynamics are a little bit different, though certainly we see 20 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: evidence today of the president. 21 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 3: Try dynamics are really different. As John Thunne would tell you, 22 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 3: beginning with salts, you don't have senators Republican senators in 23 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 3: salt states, which is the beginning of just a long 24 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 3: list of different ideas that are going to be coming 25 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 3: out of the Upper Chamber. Whether they make them into 26 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 3: legislation has yet to be seen. Tyler Kendall is standing 27 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 3: by at the White House for US right now. Bloomberg 28 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 3: Washington corresponded with HERRAI and the administration's take on this, 29 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 3: because Tyler, that does seem to be the energy center 30 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: is on President Trump's end of Pennsylvania Avenue right now. 31 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, Hey, Joe, President Trump really trying to ramp 32 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 4: up the pressure on these Senate Republicans, making phone calls, 33 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 4: posting on truth social as you've been mentioning. Because we 34 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 4: have to keep in mind here the White House is 35 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 4: dealing with some pretty conflicting demands when it comes to 36 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 4: these Republicans that want to make changes to the House Bill. 37 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 4: On one hand, you have these this group of senators 38 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 4: pitching themselves as fiscal hawks. Ran Paul. You mentioned also 39 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 4: Senator Ron Johnson, who had a phone call with President 40 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 4: Trump yesterday. I says he has plans to meet with 41 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,239 Speaker 4: the White House's economic team, and he wants to see 42 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 4: some deeper spending cuts. But of course, on the other hand, 43 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 4: here we have those concerns from Republicans about what changes 44 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 4: to benefit programs could ultimately mean, particularly when it comes 45 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 4: to Medicaid, perhaps speeding up those work requirements. Also, the 46 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 4: House's plan to freeze the Medicaid provider tax have some 47 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 4: of the states take on more of that to cost sharing. 48 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 4: These are all raising concerns and really is a politically 49 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 4: fraught issue for this White House. President Trump doubling down 50 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 4: in recent posts on truth Social saying that the bill 51 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 4: will not cut Medicaid. But there are analysis out there, 52 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 4: including one that we cite here at Bloomberg News that 53 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 4: predicts seven point seven million people by twenty thirty four 54 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 4: could ultimately lose coverage because of a shifting in the 55 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 4: eligibility requirement. So they really are going to have to 56 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 4: thread the needle here to make everybody happy and ultimately 57 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 4: to pass this bill. I could keep going. Of course, 58 00:02:57,960 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 4: it's the big, beautiful bill. So there's a lot of 59 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 4: other provisions where we're seeing disagreements. But Joe and Cayley, 60 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 4: we have to keep in mind, they can only lose 61 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 4: three Republicans at the end of the day, and we 62 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 4: know there are many more than that that are raising concerns. 63 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, Ran Paul says he thinks there are at least 64 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 2: four who could be ready to stop this thing in 65 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 2: its tracks, knowing that the White House is up against 66 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 2: a kind of self imposed deadline, if you will, that 67 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,799 Speaker 2: Senator Thune Tyler seems to be going along with they 68 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: want this done by July fourth. When would that mean 69 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 2: it actually leaves the Senate if it still has to 70 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 2: go back to the House, if it's to get to 71 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 2: the President's desk by Independence Day. 72 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 4: Right, exactly, Kelly, It's definitely an expedited timeline. Center Tom 73 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 4: till Us, a Republican from North Carolina, did tell reporters 74 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 4: yesterday that the Senate's current plan their goal is to 75 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 4: get some of those medicaid and tax changes over to 76 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 4: the White House to review by this weekend and then 77 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 4: to push more of a fuller draft of the package 78 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 4: in the next ten to fifteen days. This would be 79 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 4: incredibly expedited. Now. Of course, they want to see this 80 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 4: done by July fourth, because that ultimately gives lawmakers a 81 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 4: little bit of buffer room here against what really is 82 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 4: going to be that hard deadline, which of course is 83 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 4: the X State. We even had Treasury Secretary Scott Besstt 84 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 4: really say that that is going to be what adds 85 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 4: fuel to the fire for these lawmakers because it is 86 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 4: one big, beautiful bill. So they are of course also 87 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 4: attaching a hike to the debt ceiling. And we were 88 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 4: talking about Senator ran Paul before. His biggest point of 89 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 4: opposition is that this bill ends up lifting that ceiling. 90 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 4: But when you look at the details of this the 91 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,799 Speaker 4: House plan lifts it by four trillion dollars Joe and Cayley, 92 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 4: but the Senate has said there's enough runway to lift 93 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 4: it up to buy five trillion dollars. So there's still 94 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 4: disagreement even among that issue too. 95 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live on the North lawn 96 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 2: of the White House, Thank you so much. As we 97 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 2: can center the consider the positions of various senators here. 98 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 2: Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Republican from Wyoming, was on Bloomberg 99 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 2: TV and radio in the last hour saying that there 100 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 2: are changes she needs to see on medicaid, specifically if 101 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 2: she's to vote yes for this bill. And we had 102 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: a similar conversation with one of for a colleague, Senator 103 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 2: Kevin Kramer of North Dakota, joined us on the late 104 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power yesterday and we asked him 105 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 2: if he'd be prepared to vote yes as it stands 106 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:09,679 Speaker 2: right now. 107 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 5: This is what he told us. 108 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,359 Speaker 6: I want this to pass, but there's no reason that 109 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 6: the Senate should just simply rubber stamp it when we 110 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 6: can do so much better. I think it was interesting 111 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 6: listening to the leader from the House say I don't 112 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 6: think there's any way to find more savings, and I 113 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 6: think that's really the thing we have to do. We 114 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 6: will not be able to pass the bill without finding 115 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 6: some more spending cuts. I do think though by and 116 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 6: large it will look similar to the House bill, but 117 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 6: we just may be able to find some other places 118 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 6: for savings. 119 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 2: So for more on where exactly they might be able 120 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 2: to find savings, just how big these changes to the 121 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 2: numbers might be, we turned to Bill Hoagland, senior vice 122 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,359 Speaker 2: president at the Bipartisan Policy Center and former Republican staff 123 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 2: director for the Senate Budget Committee, who was here with 124 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 2: us in our Washington d C. Studio Bill, Welcome back 125 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Always good to have you. 126 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 2: When you look at what you're hearing from the very 127 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 2: factions in the Senate, those who want steeper cuts, those 128 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 2: who think the cuts maybe go too far. Who would 129 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 2: you anticipate wins out here? Or do they actually cancel 130 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 2: each other out? And we're not going to see many 131 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 2: changes at all. 132 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 7: No, I think there'll be changes in the bill, and 133 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,239 Speaker 7: I think it is likely that they will come together. 134 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 7: There's a lot of pressure being put on, particularly as 135 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 7: it relates to if they do not put something together here, 136 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 7: the tax increases that will take place will hit sixty 137 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 7: eight percent of all those out there who file taxes 138 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 7: one way or the other. How much that is, But 139 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 7: certainly there will be pressure. Changes will take place, They'll 140 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 7: have to take place. There's no question in my mind 141 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 7: that are a number of provisions in this bill that 142 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 7: the House set over that are what we call birdable 143 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 7: in the sense that they do not belong in this bill. 144 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 7: They have no budgetary consequence, and so it will change now. 145 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 7: The question I would ask, though, is to get it 146 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,679 Speaker 7: done and on the presence desks by July. The fourth 147 00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 7: is rather expedited process. But what that tells me is 148 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 7: that the Senate is nego will have to negotiate what 149 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 7: they passed. 150 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 8: The House will have to just simply take up and pass. 151 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 7: And that's where the difficulty is going to lie in 152 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 7: terms of can they put a bill together in the 153 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 7: Senate that the Senate that the House can simply take 154 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:15,239 Speaker 7: and pass. 155 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 3: Should we assume that the current policy baseline accounting method 156 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 3: is okay with the parliamentarian? Will that be the. 157 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 8: Case of the Senate? Well, Joe, that's a very good question. 158 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 7: It's a question that I've been asking myself for quite 159 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 7: some time. 160 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 3: Mike Johnson seems to be making this assumption. 161 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 8: I think that. 162 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 7: Being an old budgeteer, I don't think that it passes 163 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 7: the test that is necessary to get around a bird rule. 164 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 7: There is a problem here with the current policy baseline, 165 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 7: and I don't want to get into the weeds here, 166 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 7: but it does impact upon what we call the bird rule, 167 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 7: which is adding to the deficit beyond the ten year window, 168 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 7: in which case that it would be a it would 169 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 7: violate the process and his store. I've been out of 170 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 7: the twenty three twenty four reconciliation bills that have been 171 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 7: enacted over the fifty year history of the Budget Act. 172 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 7: I participated in about twenty of them, I guess, and 173 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 7: we've always used current law, not current policy. 174 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 8: But at the same time, I will tell you what 175 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 8: I'm picking up. 176 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 7: As an old budgeteer who thinks deficits and debt matter, 177 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 7: I'm picking up it doesn't really matter right now. They 178 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 7: aren't concerned about the debt and deficit and that's disconcerting 179 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 7: to me, if nothing else. 180 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 2: Well, we've also heard from the Majority Leader. Senator Thune 181 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 2: contends that actually it's up to Senator Lindsay Graham, who 182 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 2: leads the Budget Committee, to decide whether current policy baseline 183 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 2: is justified or not. Do you see John Thune as 184 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: being willing to defy the parliamentarian on that or any issue? 185 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 8: No, I don't. I think the par I think. 186 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 7: The Majority Leader has I understood, made it very clear 187 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 7: he's not going to question the parliamentarian, and therefore I 188 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 7: don't think he would go beyond the parliamentarian's advice. Now, again, 189 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 7: the Parliamentarian gives the vice to the chair. The Chair rules, 190 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 7: not the parliamentarian, and so it's possible the Chair could 191 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 7: say current policy is fine and we'll go forward with it. 192 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 7: It's a real it's an unanswerable question, Joe. I'm sorry 193 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,119 Speaker 7: at this point to give you that astract. 194 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 3: Well, this is you know, we're getting to the rub here. Yes, 195 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 3: the old lion that the Senate is the saucer that 196 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:21,959 Speaker 3: cools the sea. Is it going to be the opposite 197 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 3: this time? 198 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,839 Speaker 7: I think the Senate is going to certainly modify the 199 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 7: house the hot tea of. 200 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,959 Speaker 3: The House and turn up the heat under the tea. 201 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 7: But honestly, this is going to be a very dicey 202 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 7: exercise obviously for the majority leader in the Senate, because 203 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 7: he has to also make sure that whatever he passes 204 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 7: can get passed back into the House and not fail 205 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 7: in the House too. So getting the two sides, the 206 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 7: ones who want more deficit reduction of those who don't 207 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 7: want to make the particular reductions that are necessarily this 208 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 7: this is going to be a very very difficult exercise 209 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 7: for the new majority leader. 210 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 2: When we consider the Medicaid issue, specifically, President Trump is 211 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 2: contending that there are false statements being made that these 212 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: are not Medicaid cuts that are happening. We've been told 213 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 2: the same by many Republicans on this program, including a 214 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 2: Congressman Ashley Hinson last night who told us that this 215 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 2: is just fear mongering on the Democrats. This isn't about cuts, 216 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 2: it's about making sure the program can last long term. 217 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 2: How realistically should we be framing these Medicaid alterations cuts, 218 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 2: whatever you want. 219 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 4: To call them. 220 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 7: I think it's half. I think there's truth in both 221 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 7: arguments that are being put forth. Number One, work requirements. 222 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 7: Are the work requirements a cut? Know that they are 223 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 7: requiring individuals to participate in the Medicaid program and if 224 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 7: they choose not to because of the work requirement, is 225 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 7: that a cut? 226 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:45,839 Speaker 8: I don't know. 227 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 7: At the same time, the provider tax that's in there 228 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 7: does impact directly, I think nursing homes, rural hospitals, that 229 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 7: could feedback to being real cuts on individuals. So when 230 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 7: the CBO makes it instrument, and your reporter indicated also 231 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 7: about six point seven million, seven million people that would 232 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,599 Speaker 7: be removed from the Medicaid rules because of this, I 233 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 7: think I think it's hard to say there aren't going 234 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 7: to be reductions here. And particularly the one area that 235 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 7: should be focused on I think, as coming from a 236 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 7: rural area myself, is the rural hospitals they are there 237 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 7: could very well be hit by the provider. Take one 238 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 7: other thing I want to make a point I would 239 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 7: make is that we should also look at the SNAP program, 240 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 7: the food stamp program, and the changes that are being 241 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 7: proposed there, which are work requirements also, but also the 242 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 7: requirement that the states pick up a particular share. Right now, 243 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 7: the benefits the SNAP benefits self is one hundred percent federal. 244 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 7: If you're asking the states to pick that up for 245 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 7: the SNAP benefits, and then you're asking the states to 246 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 7: pick up the administrative costs associated with the work requirement, 247 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 7: there are going to be some major shifts in administrative 248 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 7: costs to the states. And those are a lot are 249 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 7: red states. And so when those red state governors start 250 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 7: calling their senator, I think it will make some changes 251 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 7: that you're. 252 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 3: Only putting your finger on. So Jim Justice knows this, 253 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 3: which is why he's been talking about it. Republican senators 254 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 3: with big rural communities in their states are deeply concerned 255 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 3: about that provider tax. They see nursing homes closing, rural 256 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 3: hospitals closing. Does that mean Republicans crank back the changes 257 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 3: to Medicaid? 258 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 7: I think they I think there will be some changes 259 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 7: in the Medicare Medicaid program, particularly coming out of it. 260 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,959 Speaker 7: You know, you've reported so many times here we got 261 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 7: Susan Collins who has concerns. Yet, Murkowski has concerns. Josh 262 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:41,839 Speaker 7: Holly of all people, Conservatives senator has concerns about that 263 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 7: these are big issues in rural areas of the country, 264 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 7: in rural hospitals. Yes, I think there will be changes. 265 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,839 Speaker 2: Well, as we wait to see what those changes are 266 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 2: in the Senate. The House is also going to be 267 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: taking up some work this week, as the White House 268 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 2: is now formally sharing a precision package with the House, PBS, NPR, 269 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: USAID funding. I think it amounts to about nine billion. 270 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 8: Dollars, billion bill. 271 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 2: I think they're going to make a big deal out 272 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 2: of this. But is this a big dealer? Is it 273 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 2: a drop in a bucket? 274 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 7: Well, nine billion dollars is nothing to snuff, and I 275 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 7: would say that yes, it is a big deal. 276 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 8: The question here is, I'm not clear. 277 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 7: I haven't seen the proposal yet whether it's the nine 278 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 7: billion is made up basically the USAID funds and then 279 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 7: the public radio and public communication. And my sense here 280 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 7: is if they put those two together as one package. 281 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 7: It probably does pass the House. I'm not sure it 282 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 7: passes the Senate. Again, we're back to the rural areas 283 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 7: that depend some of the corporate broad testing systems that 284 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 7: are out there. Not to take anything away from Bloomberg 285 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 7: at all, of course, but definitely so, yes, that's it. 286 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 7: One thing you should know is that that this is 287 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 7: probably just the start of recision. This is something under 288 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 7: the Impoundment Control Act. The President has every right to 289 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 7: propose to Congress the elimination of funding that has been 290 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 7: made available. My sense is there's going to be a 291 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 7: lot more coming later in the year. 292 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 3: Will that be coming with help from the DOGE or 293 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 3: is that a. 294 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 8: Separate Well, it's separate from DOGE. 295 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 7: But the DOJA proposals that not now take actual form 296 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 7: in the form of a recision that was submitted to 297 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 7: would be submitted to Congress. I want to get into 298 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 7: the weeds too far here, but you have forty five 299 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 7: Congress has forty five days to act on a recision 300 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 7: package once it's submitted. 301 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 8: Either approve it or you don't approve it. And what 302 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 8: if you wait until. 303 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 7: Say the middle of the August recess and you propose 304 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 7: those it is possible that those recisions would go in 305 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 7: effect without any action by Congress. 306 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 8: This is what we call. 307 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 7: Line item recision VETO, and so be aware that there's 308 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 7: some more coming. 309 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 3: And that can happen during a recess as only. 310 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 7: It's well, it's not. They're not on official recess. There's 311 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 7: continuous station. They will not go on recess during the 312 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 7: August perform it largely so that they can avoid recess appointments. 313 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 2: Right, wow, we remember what we were having a conversation 314 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: about recess appointments every day. 315 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 3: Yes, we were on the cabinet nomage. Just wait, we'll 316 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 3: come back around. We'll call Bill Hoaglan. It's great to 317 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 3: have you with us. Thank you, Bill as always a 318 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 3: veteran of the Senate now with a bipartisan policy center 319 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 3: and giving us a real sense, Kelley, of what we 320 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 3: can look for with changes that are coming out of 321 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: this bill. You wonder if Donald Trump told John Thune 322 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 3: to keep it the way it is. 323 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, certainly the Speaker of the House hasn't been 324 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 2: shy about doing that, saying, mister Majority leader, you need 325 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 2: to change this as little as possible if you want 326 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 2: me to be able to pass it. A second time. 327 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 2: We'll see how much louder the voice of the president. 328 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: Gets on this. Yeah, may not be very practical for 329 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 3: John Thune. In the meantime, stay with us. We're going 330 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 3: to assemble our political panel next Moragillespie, Kristen Hahn, no 331 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 3: strangers to this debate. We'll be up with us here 332 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 3: on Balance of Power alongside Kally Lines. I'm Joe Matthew. 333 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us on Bluebird TV and radio. 334 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 335 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 336 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: on Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 337 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 338 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 339 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 2: I'm Kateie Lines alongside Joe Matthew, live in Washington, where 340 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 2: we are focused on the United States Senate as we 341 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 2: will be probably all week for the weeks to come, 342 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 2: basically leading up until when they leave for the July 343 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 2: fourth recess, which is actually the last week of June 344 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 2: is the last week they're scheduled to be in session, 345 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 2: and the Senate Majority leader John Thune has suggested he 346 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 2: would like to see a bill pass through the Senate, 347 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 2: set sent back to the House, and pass through the 348 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 2: House on the President's desk by the fourth of July. 349 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 2: So the time is short and there's a lot of 350 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 2: people that still need to be made happy here, including 351 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 2: Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, who is not yet 352 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 2: a yes. She said on this bill, there's still something 353 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 2: she would like to see change, including when it comes 354 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,360 Speaker 2: to Medicaid. She said this on Bloomberg TV and Radio earlier. 355 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 9: I would like to see some reforms to Medicaid. This 356 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 9: is not in an effort to remove benefits from those 357 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:24,399 Speaker 9: who were intended to have it, but rather to stop 358 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 9: the states from using a mechanism to enrich their federal 359 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 9: participation dollars. And forty nine states are doing it. It 360 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 9: would require the reform of the state's loophole for me 361 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 9: to support the Medicaid reforms. 362 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 3: She's talking about changes to the provider tax, which, as 363 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 3: we were just discussing with Bill Hogland, is a problem 364 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 3: for a lot of Republican Senators who represent rural states. 365 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 3: The fear that it could lead to the closures of 366 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 3: rural hospitals or nursing homes. It's where we start our 367 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 3: conversation with our political panel. Republican strategist Mara Gillespie is 368 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 3: where us. The founder of Blue Stack Strategy is Kristen Hahn, 369 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 3: Democratic strategist and partner at Rock Solutions. Great to see 370 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 3: both of you, hear, Mora, what's your sense of this. 371 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 3: If Republican senators start to tinker with this deal on Medicaid? 372 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 3: You work for a former speaker, a former Republican Speaker 373 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 3: of the House, is it DOA when it comes back 374 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 3: to the lower chamber? What happens now? 375 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 5: The pressure does begin to mount though on making sure 376 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 5: it can still get done again. I think that the 377 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 5: biggest issue here is the role that the President will 378 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 5: play in pressuring these members, especially in the House I 379 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 5: to accept what the Senate has done with the bill 380 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 5: and get it done before realistically the August recess. I 381 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 5: think that's the more likely scenario. But Senator John Thune 382 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 5: is going to let this kind of work its will 383 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 5: through the Senate, and you're seeing that play out and 384 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 5: talking about the benefits and some of the issues there 385 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 5: with rural states. You know, Missouri is one that I 386 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 5: know they have deep concerns about that provision that Senator 387 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 5: Lumbus talked about. So you're going to have a couple 388 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 5: of these senators that are going to raise their you know, 389 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 5: right a flag as saying this isn't a non negotiable. 390 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 5: They have a little bit more you know, staying power 391 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 5: as far as some of them aren't out for reelection 392 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 5: this cycle and they're not up in the midterms, whereas 393 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 5: the House is going to have to play ball more 394 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 5: so when it comes to Donald Trump's pressure. 395 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: So is that another way of saying, Laura that or 396 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 2: more that the Senate actually does have a great deal 397 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: more leverage here. Might not be as easily moved by 398 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 2: either the leader John Thune or by President Trump himself. 399 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 5: They do just because of the fact that the House 400 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 5: is up for reelection in twenty twenty six, and several 401 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 5: of the senators that are speaking out some are up 402 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 5: for reelection in twenty six. But again, they represent a 403 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 5: larger swath of the American public, and so they're objectives here. 404 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 5: They do have more legs to stay in on as 405 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 5: far as being able to push back on these provisions 406 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 5: of the House puss through. 407 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 3: What's your sense of this, Kristen Han as a Democrat 408 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 3: watching a Republican only exercise, do you expect that the 409 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 3: House signs off on whatever comes back? 410 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 10: I mean, I think that if they want to ultimately 411 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 10: get this done, they're going to have to. You know, 412 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 10: I worked in the House side when we had a 413 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 10: you know, a Democratic Senate, a Democratic House, and President 414 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 10: Obama in the White House, and it was a frustrating 415 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,360 Speaker 10: thing for the for the House staff and the members 416 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 10: because we would send something over to the Senate and 417 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 10: that we come back to us and we call it 418 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 10: sticking the House. I mean it's so if the President 419 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 10: wants to get it done, I think he's just going 420 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 10: to have to force the members of the House to 421 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 10: do it. And then a lot of them are going 422 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 10: to be in some really tough spots if they get 423 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 10: this done because of what we were discussing, you know, 424 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 10: heavy cuts to Medicaid and how that will impact a 425 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:53,919 Speaker 10: lot of rural America. And I know that there are 426 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 10: a lot of Senators, sorry, members of the House, we're 427 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:57,640 Speaker 10: very concerned about that coming back. 428 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: Well, well, when we consider those swing districts in twenty 429 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 2: twenty six, in the messaging war that is going to 430 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 2: be fought in them. Kristen, We were told last night 431 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,880 Speaker 2: by one Republican lawmaker that Democrats are just fear mongering 432 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 2: on this. President Trump is saying the same. How do 433 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 2: you think voters will actually view this medicaid issue? Is 434 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 2: it just semantics to them? 435 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 10: I mean, you look at these town halls and a 436 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 10: lot of these Republican or red districts, and people are fearful, 437 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 10: they're scared, and that's not something that the National Democratic 438 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 10: Party has genned up. That's that's what's happening on the ground. 439 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 10: People are, they're upset, and they're voicing their opinions, and 440 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 10: they're going to voice their opinions at the ballot box. 441 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 10: So you know, I was very actually, as a cons person, 442 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 10: very impressed with you know, Republicans in the House who 443 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 10: had been very concerned about this leading up to the 444 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 10: vote for the bill, but once they voted for it, 445 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 10: they were all speaking off of the same playbook, saying 446 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 10: that Democrats are fear mongering and this isn't actually you know, 447 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 10: you know, we're just you know, people who are not 448 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 10: citizens United States shouldn't have medicaid. I mean, they're they're 449 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 10: doing a good job of talking about it up in 450 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 10: DC and Washington on television, but at home people are 451 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 10: concerned and that's what they should be concerned about. In 452 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 10: twenty twenty six, for sure, what. 453 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 3: Is it mora that gets President Trump out of the 454 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 3: White House back up on Capitol Hill. You know there's 455 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 3: going to be a tough meeting at some point where 456 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 3: everybody goes behind closed doors so they can be cajoled 457 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 3: or even shamed by the President. We're starting with phone calls, 458 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 3: but when does the personal visit happen? Does that push 459 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 3: this across the line? 460 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 5: It will likely when it goes back to the House. 461 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 5: I think you're going to see some of these cuts, 462 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 5: you know, in terms of snap You know, Chuck Grassley 463 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 5: has been pretty adamant about that one that he doesn't 464 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 5: like the House version of it, and so seven members 465 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 5: of the Senate don't like that either, And the discrepancy 466 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 5: there between with the Senate once versus with the House ones, 467 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 5: it's pretty pretty massive. So I think when we see 468 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 5: how that plays out, and then again with the medicaid 469 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 5: to the medicaid discussion, you know, the message there is important, 470 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 5: and I think that that Kristen hit on that a 471 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 5: little bit there about what they're saying about fear mongering, 472 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 5: but they're also talking about there needs to be a 473 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 5: accountability when it comes to Medicaid, and the programs themselves 474 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 5: are not sustainable if we don't get a handle on 475 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 5: the fraud, waste, and abuse both in Medicaid and Medicare. 476 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,360 Speaker 5: And so being able to talk to your constituents going 477 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 5: home and doing town halls, even though they're challenging, even 478 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 5: though they're very difficult and you do get yelled at, 479 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 5: it's important to hear your constituents, hear them out and 480 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 5: explain to them what it is that you're looking to 481 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 5: do as a member of Congress, and that messaging war. Unfortunately, 482 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 5: if they're not successful, Donald Trump will have to come 483 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 5: in and let them know here's what's happening, and he 484 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 5: all have them, maybe, you know, make some promises about 485 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 5: going to their districts and going in to help them 486 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 5: during their reelection. I think that kind of a conversation 487 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 5: between the conference and the President is going to be 488 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 5: pretty important, especially with some of these holdouts who are 489 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 5: concerned about the impact for their reelection. 490 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 2: I do want to mention that at this hour, the 491 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 2: White House Press Secretary Caroline love It is holding court 492 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 2: in the briefing room answering questions from reporters. She did 493 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 2: just make a little bit of news confirming that President Trump, 494 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 2: as you can see live on Bloomberg TV as well 495 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 2: as on Bloomberg Originals, will be attending the NATO summit 496 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 2: later this month. That, of course, is being held just 497 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,360 Speaker 2: after the G seven meeting, which he is also attending. 498 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 2: I would imagine the war in Ukraine will feature heavily 499 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 2: on that agenda. But she's also speaking to the efforts 500 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, as she notes that the White House 501 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 2: will be sending a recisions package today to the House, 502 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 2: but is talking about the Big Beautiful Bill as well. 503 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 2: She says Republicans opposing the Big Beautiful Bill are wrong 504 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,360 Speaker 2: and Kristen, she also is pointing out specifically the CBO 505 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,919 Speaker 2: being wrong at least in her words, historically on the 506 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 2: economic impacts of such legislation. We have seen a lot 507 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 2: of Republican I are thrown at the CBO specifically, do 508 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 2: they have a point? Should we be taking CBO estimates 509 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 2: at face value? 510 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 10: Well, I think you know we've said this before on this, 511 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,360 Speaker 10: so that people tend to really lean on the CBO 512 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 10: and love on the CBO when they agree with their 513 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 10: assessment and then you know, and not when they don't. 514 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 10: So this is a tale as old as time, and 515 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 10: people have gone after the CBO forever. But I know, 516 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 10: I think that you know, the CBA play plays an 517 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 10: important role clearly in any piece of legislation that has 518 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,919 Speaker 10: an impact on our debt and deficit and spending in 519 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 10: this country, and they're the ones that are actually looking 520 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,719 Speaker 10: at it, not through a political lens. So I think 521 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 10: it's important to take what they're saying seriously. 522 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 3: Is this a party in power thing or a Republican thing? Though? 523 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 3: More I remember the Biden Whitehouse embracing CBO scoring. What's 524 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:44,159 Speaker 3: Republicans allergy to? What is a non partisan outfit with 525 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 3: years of experience inside the Congress. They're not going to 526 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 3: start dynamics scoring tomorrow, apparently, But what are they doing wrong? 527 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 5: Well, I think for a lot of Republicans, but I 528 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,159 Speaker 5: think it goes across the aisle as well. You know, 529 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 5: the CBO score is one aspect of the viability of 530 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 5: a piece of legislation, but it also really does come 531 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 5: down to the messaging of it and the will of 532 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 5: the people behind it and the power of the members 533 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 5: who are pushing it forward. So it's not the end 534 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 5: all be all, and I think that that's how Republicans 535 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 5: have viewed it for a long time. Sure they have 536 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,479 Speaker 5: to get the bill scored, but it doesn't necessarily make 537 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,879 Speaker 5: or break whether that bill has a piece of legelation 538 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 5: has viability, and so looking at it through that lens, 539 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 5: that's more or less how Republicans have largely viewed the CBO. 540 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 5: But to Christen's point, may mean the hypocrisy about it 541 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 5: kind of goes runs the game on Capitol Hill. You 542 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 5: love it when it loves you, and you hate it 543 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 5: when it hates you back. So that seems to be 544 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 5: the consensus there. 545 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 2: Well, speaking of hate, I do want to call attention 546 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 2: to a post that just hit the wire on X, 547 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 2: specifically from the man who owns it, Elon Musk, taking 548 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 2: to X and saying the following quote, I'm sorry, but 549 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 2: I just can't stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork 550 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 2: filled congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on 551 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 2: those who voted for it. You know you did work, 552 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 2: you know it, Kristin, Is this what happens when Elon 553 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 2: Musks leaves Washington. 554 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 10: I guess so, man. He didn't have a long tenure here, 555 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,440 Speaker 10: and he certainly doesn't have the stomach for the politics, 556 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 10: particularly when you're talking about dealing with issues that are 557 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,399 Speaker 10: this big. But that's certainly interesting. I wonder if he 558 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 10: and the President had some sort of call. I don't 559 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 10: know what's going on there, but it's always interesting to 560 00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 10: see what he says. I don't disagree with him necessarily. 561 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 6: So. 562 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 3: That sounds like they broke up. 563 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, and this goes well beyond just that a 564 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 2: bill can't be both big and beautiful that he said 565 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 2: on CBS last week. Yeah, this is much harsher language. 566 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 2: Shame on those who voted for it, he says. I 567 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 2: wonder if we'll be hearing from President Trump about this one, 568 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 2: or if this will work its way into the White 569 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 2: House briefing that is currently happening with Caroline love It. 570 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 2: Thank you very much to our political panel, Kristen On 571 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 2: and Mara Gillespie. Always great to have you here on 572 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: Balance of Power. As we watch the wire on X 573 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,199 Speaker 2: watch the Wires on the Terminal as well. We'll be 574 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,120 Speaker 2: back for more in just a moment on Bloomberg TV 575 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 2: and radio. 576 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 577 00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 578 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 579 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 580 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,880 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 581 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 3: I want to add the voice, as I mentioned, of 582 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,360 Speaker 3: a stakeholder here. We talk about salt date all day long, 583 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,119 Speaker 3: and if you live in one of the Salt states, well, 584 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,360 Speaker 3: I guess you are a stakeholder. But sometimes it's interesting 585 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 3: to talk to somebody beyond an elected official here because 586 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 3: from lawmakers to lobbyists, this is a big deal right 587 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 3: now in the throes of this debate. Colin Allen is 588 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 3: executive director of the American Property Owners Alliance and joins 589 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 3: me right now here in Washington, d C. Colin, welcome, 590 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 3: It's good to see you. Thanks, Joe, appreciated live you 591 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 3: right as a stakeholder in this. 592 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 11: Debate, absolutely, yeah, you know. We the American Property Owners 593 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 11: Alliance were founded in twenty twenty to represent the interests 594 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 11: of individual homeowners and small property owners across the country. Right, so, 595 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 11: salt is a huge issue for people who own property 596 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 11: across the country, you're not seeing uh you know this, 597 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 11: the local taxes go down, right, as as home home 598 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 11: values continue to go up and and and local governments 599 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 11: look to fund priorities sometimes even as you're you're seeing 600 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 11: the federal government shrink what they're looking to do, right, 601 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 11: you're going to need to see some of the local 602 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 11: governments pick up the slack. And the way they do 603 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 11: that is through property taxes. So I you know, I 604 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 11: know living here in the in the DC area, both 605 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 11: both the valuation and the and the assessment went up 606 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 11: on properties in the county that I live in this year. 607 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,400 Speaker 11: So it's it's been a while since we've seen that, 608 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 11: and it's it's coming to you. 609 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 3: Well, talk to me about what the Alliance is doing. 610 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 3: We should be clear you're a five o C four 611 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,239 Speaker 3: advocacy organization, so you can actually engage in lobbying and 612 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 3: political activities. Do you have four behind this right now? 613 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 3: Are you calling lawmakers about this? 614 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,239 Speaker 11: That is correct? We're working to make sure that you know. 615 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 11: What we've seen is the House has given us a 616 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 11: good provision here with with forty thousand dollars in salt 617 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 11: relief that would cover most of what you'd see from 618 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 11: a property owner. And what we were urging is for 619 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 11: the Senate to finish the job here. 620 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 8: You know where it is. 621 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 3: Do you like the deal struck in the House. 622 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 11: The deal in the House is a good deal and 623 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 11: it'll cover you know again, what we're looking at here 624 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 11: is property taxes for the vast majority of Americans. 625 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 3: Well, listen, if you're lobbying this issue, you're probably you 626 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 3: know more about this than anybody who's reading or hearing anything. 627 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 3: You're you're on the front lines of the debate. What 628 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 3: are you hearing from the Senate? Are they actually going 629 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 3: to keep this intact? Because you know what the line is, 630 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 3: there's no such thing as assault state in the Senate. 631 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 3: If you're a senator, if you're a Republican senator, your 632 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 3: state's not too worried about this issue right now. 633 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 11: Yeah, So what we're hearing, and i'd say look towards 634 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 11: you know, the person that I've looked to recently as 635 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 11: a Senator, Mark Waynemullen from Oklahoma. He's not just because 636 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 11: I like what he's saying about salt. 637 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 3: He's afraid of making big changes. As a former congressman, 638 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 3: I think. 639 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 11: Isn't you know, and I think look to him as 640 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 11: a good gauge here, right, that he is still very 641 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 11: in touch. He's a relatively new senator. Yeah, I've been 642 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 11: there for about two and a half years, and still 643 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 11: has really good connections with the House leadership, especially on 644 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,160 Speaker 11: the Ways and Means Committee and the leadership of the House. 645 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 11: So I think he is having those conversations and in 646 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,239 Speaker 11: a really good position to be a gauge for what 647 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 11: the House may or may not be able to do 648 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 11: from the Senate. 649 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 3: I wasn't kidding when I was talking to Tyler Wane, 650 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 3: and we do salt stories, they become the most right 651 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 3: on the terminal. When I talk about it on the air. 652 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,719 Speaker 3: All of a sudden, my terminal lights up. I get email, 653 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 3: I get tweets because so many Bloomberg viewers and listeners 654 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,959 Speaker 3: understand this story and so many are impacted by it. 655 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 3: If you're living in estate though, where you do not 656 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 3: have high property taxes, and they're talking about a blue 657 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 3: state bailout, what's the answer to that? Because this is 658 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 3: the debate we're in. 659 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 11: So I think one of the things and try to 660 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 11: illustrate that a little earlier, right, is that as we 661 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 11: are continuing to see the value of homes appreciate. Right, 662 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 11: we're under supply, We're not building enough enough, new supplies 663 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 11: not coming under the market. What we're seeing is that 664 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 11: the values of homes continue to get more and more expensive. 665 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 11: And i'd say, as you look to the federal government 666 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 11: maybe shrinking some of the responsibilities that they're looking at, 667 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,200 Speaker 11: a lot of those services are not necessarily going to 668 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:18,560 Speaker 11: go away, right, They're going to go to the states, 669 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 11: They're going to go to the localities. And the biggest, 670 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 11: the biggest way that those organizations, those units of government 671 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 11: fund their priorities is through taxes own properties. So I'd say, 672 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 11: as we continue to see these increasing valuations and local 673 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 11: property taxes going up, this is an issue that is 674 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 11: going to creep across the country. 675 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 3: Well, you don't only have your ear on this debate 676 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 3: on Capitol Hill. You have your ear on the market. 677 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 3: That's the reason why you exist at the Alliance. And 678 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 3: I want to follow up on what you just mentioned 679 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,080 Speaker 3: because it's really interesting looking at the dynamics in this market. 680 00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 3: And we had new numbers by Redfin that you probably 681 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 3: saw Axios published today. A buyer's market if you can 682 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 3: afford it, there are nearly five hundred thousand more home 683 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 3: sellers than in the US housing market. How long could 684 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 3: this last? 685 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 11: So I think, you know, and I was listening actually 686 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 11: funny enough this morning on the way in listening to 687 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 11: a podcast with Logan Modashami from Housing Wire kind of 688 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 11: looking at that and I think debunked maybe some of 689 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 11: the numbers. I think his exact his exact comment was, 690 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 11: I'm going to give this a yellow card. Unclear where 691 00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 11: that number is coming from, right, I think it may 692 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 11: be a proprietary formula from from Redfin, but definitely something 693 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 11: that that you're seeing there and what we may be 694 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 11: seeing is maybe not this like imminent crash of twenty 695 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 11: to forty percent that I think you'll see some of 696 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 11: the trolls. 697 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,640 Speaker 3: Talking about when when we use these kind of packted terms, 698 00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 3: is that not true. 699 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:46,600 Speaker 11: I think we're probably coming back into more of an 700 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 11: alignment right where where you're you're having a little bit 701 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 11: more supply coming online and buyers are coming out and saying, 702 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 11: you know, hey, maybe I understand that interest rates are 703 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,960 Speaker 11: not coming back down to three or four percent. I'm 704 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 11: going to take advantage of of you know, where I am. 705 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,960 Speaker 11: I still have a you know, my job is good. 706 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 11: I've had a change in my life circumstances, right, We've 707 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 11: had a kid, I've gotten married, whatever it is, and 708 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 11: and I do feel that the time now is right 709 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,840 Speaker 11: and that we're we're in a pretty good what happened. 710 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 3: We can all live our lives around interest rates and whatever. 711 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 3: You get a job, sometimes you got to move, or 712 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 3: sometimes you need to or want to move. What happens 713 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,399 Speaker 3: if the FED starts to cut What if we get 714 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 3: fifty basis points this year or more? What would that 715 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 3: do to the market. 716 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 11: I think you would see an immediate interest in in 717 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:29,680 Speaker 11: our folks getting in and. 718 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 3: Buying market and buying. Is that right? 719 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,520 Speaker 11: Absolutely? Yeah, No, I think that is very much. You know, 720 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 11: some of the folks who may be sitting on the sidelines, 721 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 11: right and this is one of the things that we 722 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 11: talk about on the capital gain side, is that you've 723 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 11: got especially older, longer tenured folks who've lived in their 724 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 11: homes for a long time, you know, may want to 725 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 11: take advantage of of getting in there and selling a 726 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,920 Speaker 11: property if they've been locked in sure, you know, for 727 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,239 Speaker 11: a long time, and say, yeah, you know, maybe i'll 728 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 11: downsize now it makes sense. 729 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,799 Speaker 3: You know where it well didn't place for a long time. 730 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,839 Speaker 11: Exactly where it didn't make sense at you know, six 731 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 11: and a half percent, maybe it makes more sense at five. 732 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,600 Speaker 3: You're telling us you think salt stay is where it 733 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:05,879 Speaker 3: is when it comes back to the House. 734 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 11: I think it's certainly open for debate. 735 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 8: Right, this is it. 736 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 11: I used to be a where I came from. Yeah, 737 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 11: was that I would start off and say, you know, 738 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 11: I think the Senate is kind of a they'd take 739 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,960 Speaker 11: the House bill, send it back and say, you know, 740 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:21,840 Speaker 11: you guys can eat. 741 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,879 Speaker 3: Whatever we passed, right, yes, exactly? Will the Senate try 742 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 3: to jam the House again? 743 00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,320 Speaker 11: I really feel like you saw this bring the rapture. 744 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 11: You saw this bill pass with one vote, right exactly. 745 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,719 Speaker 11: I think we're just in a fundamentally different spot here. 746 00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 3: I feel good. 747 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 11: I've heard I've heard in a number of different things mentioned, 748 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 11: but I'm going to follow Senator Mullins lead on this 749 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,320 Speaker 11: one and say, I think we're in a good spot. 750 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,879 Speaker 3: He's part of the driving force behind the salt cap 751 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 3: keeping it lifted. Colin Allen, American property Owner's Alliance, Right conversation, 752 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 3: I appreciate your coming in to see us in Studio Commune. 753 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 754 00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 755 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,839 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 756 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 757 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.