WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2020 Presidential Election Betting Angles 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.399 Check it on Man Now down Man, It's good today 0:00:12.480 --> 0:00:15.280 morning in the right here at Visa in the Sports 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:18.120 Betting Network Series six time channel to A four of course, 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:20.560 Visa dot Com, the Visa have Boobo Slinging game plus 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:23.280 thanks to everybody who uh it's planning on joining us 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:27.320 for the two hours today because uh I like this one. Later, 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:30.600 Drew dinsick whale Caper on Twitter talk a little NFL 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:32.080 with us, not a little NFL, that was a lot 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.240 of NFL. We'll get his picks, will get his thoughts 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:37.120 on week seven and obviously week eight moving forward, and 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:40.400 then Joe Shan will join us talk World Series Game 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:42.680 six tonight. And I'll do what I did with both 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.640 Sport and Winegarden yesterday. I just sort of throw out 0:00:45.720 --> 0:00:48.720 my Davy Roberts theories and see if Joe wants to 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:51.199 bat them down as well. Everybody disagrees and they're like yeah, 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.880 but Davy Roberts loses job, So I don't know if 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:55.640 they disagree or they agree. So we look forward to that. 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:59.279 Football and baseball come in the second hour, but we 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:02.240 start today. As you know, on this show, we have 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:06.559 not been shy about talking about political betting. A politically speaking, 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:08.640 of course, Jason Jason conn is here as well. Everybody, 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:10.960 how you doing, Jason? Could good morning? Go yeah we 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:13.399 get a political yeah yeah, well I want to get 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:16.240 a political but political betting. This is like super geeked 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.920 out stuff. Uh. And these two guests who are kind 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:23.040 enough to join us this morning, they did a phenomenal 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:27.000 podcast video pod on the subject last week, and I 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.560 wanted to have them both on. Uh. She is from 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:32.040 odd Sharks. She's a writer for add Sharks. Comes comes 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:35.000 to us primarily from my poker writing background. I believe 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:37.760 she'll correct me if I'm wrong. Pamela Malda Nado on 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.800 the show this morning, and uh, he is a gaming attorney. 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:42.959 But also and he may object to this term, so 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:45.240 I'll have to get a definition on this. I believe 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:47.720 operative might be too strong of a word. He may 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:52.960 object to that. But registered Republican, formerly working in politics 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:56.600 and the Republican Party. It's Mac for standing. So welcome, Pamela, 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:58.680 Welcome Mac, and congratulations to the both of you. And 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:00.840 I thought was just a great pot cast last week. 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:04.720 Thank you so much. There they are, look at them 0:02:04.920 --> 0:02:07.600 very much. Oh no, no, it was great. It was 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.200 It was thorough. It was wonderful and I hope to 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:14.440 do justice here this this morning, because I think this 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:16.800 is the content that everybody wants. We are one week away, 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:20.919 obviously from the presidential election, and I guess I was 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:22.440 trying to figure out where should I start, And let's 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:25.120 just start with the latest, which is yesterday. When we 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:27.320 were on the air, it looked like Joe Biden had 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:30.359 his day cleared, he wasn't gonna go anywhere, UM, had 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:33.720 his calendar cleared. And then he showed up in Pennsylvania randomly, 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.240 maybe not so randomly, but at least schedule wise, it 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:38.760 was randomly. And then the schedule came out and he's 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.520 going to Georgia and Florida. I want to start with 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:45.800 Georgia and Texas specifically because I found that interesting. UM, 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:49.359 because Georgia and Texas at least in the betting markets, 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.440 and I can give you the numbers specifically, Republicans to 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.400 win the electoral vote electoral vote in Georgia minus one 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:59.200 seventy six to do so in Texas. Uh, it is 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:01.239 just about the same number. I think a little higher. 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:04.000 I'll check on the exact number right now. Mac. Let's 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:07.120 start with you on these um Texas, by the way, 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.840 minus three sixty for the Republicans, pardon me, much higher 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.760 are Georgia. In Texas and specifically Georgia, where Biden is 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:20.320 visiting today in play, George is not genuinely in play 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:24.000 on the presidential front, but George is important for two reasons. One, 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:27.800 there's a Senate race that is weirdly in play. The 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:32.600 incumbent Senator per Due is looking oddly vulnerable against a 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.240 guy named John osof whose claimed to fame and I 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:37.800 could not make this up, is he lost the most 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:42.400 expensive house race in American history. But somehow he's running 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.920 strong in Georgia on the Senate front. And if Biden's 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:47.400 going to win in his game to the point in 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:50.080 the race where he's taking for granted the idea that 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:51.840 he might win and he wants to send it to 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:54.200 back him, that puts a lot of pressure down to 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:57.480 get there too. It makes the Republicans in the last 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.480 week spend money in the Atlanta media mark which is 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:04.120 expensive and going to the Texas point in a bunch 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:07.360 of media Marke considers super expensive, and that takes their 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:12.120 precious resources away from Michigan, Pennsylvania and parts of Florida, 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.680 So it's not a it's not a Hillary mistake. I don't. 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:17.720 I know. He did say he's going to go visit Wisconsin, 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:20.400 so maybe it's it's it's not a kin to that, 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:22.240 but it's not for those are saying like, hey, this 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:23.920 is exactly what Hillary did. She was in the wrong 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:25.560 states of the in the last week. You don't view 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:28.480 it that way. I don't view it that way because 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:30.800 I don't think there's any obvious blind spot states that 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.320 he's missing. Look, I'm a proud man who used to 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:36.919 live in Wisconsin, went to school in Wisconsin. And the 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:41.040 fact that Hillary couldn't see that iowaism play, in ohioism play, 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:46.800 but somehow didn't realize Wisconsin isn't play is malpractice of 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:49.039 highest magnitude. But I didn't seems to be doing a 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:52.000 better job covering the obvious states. So I do think 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.479 it is a little arrogant to go down to Georgia, 0:04:54.560 --> 0:04:57.400 to go down to Texas and to try to put 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.320 those in place, so to speak, when he us have 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.240 real concerns in other states. But he's playing like a 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:05.919 man who's well ahead in the fourth quarter and something 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.800 of a preventive hunt. Interesting by the way, Trump of 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:13.560 course winning Georgia and polls right now split. But the the 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:16.480 betting market, as we mentioned, Republicans at minus one seventy 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.960 six to win the electoral will vote skill Alexander. It 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:20.760 is a numbers game right here at Visa the Sports 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:23.600 Betting Network series x M channel two O four talking 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:27.120 with both mac Verstanding and Pamela Maldonado from odd Shark 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:30.200 about the election one week from today. Let me shift 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:32.840 to Texas for a second, Pamela, And by the way, 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.560 pam or Pamela, what do you prefer either way? We're 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:40.000 exciting to me. Okay, well, uh, Texas. You live in Texas, 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:45.000 you are familiar with the demographics there. Uh done deal. 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:49.359 Republicans huge favorites minus three sixty in terms of the 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:52.320 betting market on the electoral vote in Texas. But you 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.120 think that might be a little high. As far as 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:58.479 I could gather, I will would not believe that they're 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:02.240 spending advertising dollar Kamala Harris is making a trip to 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:05.440 Texas if they didn't believe that there is a legitimate 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:08.960 shot at at least making this a much tighter race 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:12.240 than the odds and polls indicate. Now, the reason for 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:15.960 that is because we have a large number of transient 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:19.599 people that have come from California, New York, Arizona, people 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:23.400 from all across the country have in fact moved over 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:27.000 to Austin, moved over to Harris County, that's Houston, Dallas, 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.200 moved over to some of these big metropolitans cities within 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:34.320 the state. And that has shifted our demographics. We are 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.919 no longer as strongly read as we used to be. 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.560 And now you said my Republican was minus three sixty. 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:45.520 I've been tracking these odds since about March April UM 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:48.320 when everyone else was focusing on Korean baseball. I got 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:53.080 into politics. The number for a Republican was minus six hundred. 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.800 That number is now anywhere between minus three hundred. I 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:58.680 see it on bet online minus three. You see it 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:02.520 a minus three sixty. Democrat went from plus one thousand, 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.719 it is now plus two forty. Now it's interesting about 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:11.040 Texas is we have nearly seven point four million early 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:15.200 votes as a Sunday. Why is that number so important 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:19.520 because that is of the state's total in two thousand 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:22.640 and sixteen and we still have a week away. It 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:24.600 really is a present. But how about that Douson team 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:26.280 in Korea. That's what I really wanted to bring on it. 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.480 Very very curious about that. Um so then, but just 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.720 from a betting perspective, then, while all of that so, 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:37.200 both in Georgia and Texas, while we're trending in one way, 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:39.320 and listen, we're all about value. We always say it, 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:41.160 no matter the bed, value is value, whether it's a 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:45.080 favorite or an underdog. Mac do I do? Do you still? 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:47.640 Do you recommend a bet on the Democrats in either 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:49.880 of those states? Are we are we jumping ahead of ourselves? 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:53.160 I would take the bet on the Democrats in Texas. 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:57.320 I think Texas at least for this election cycle is 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:00.560 lucy and the football to the Democrats there gonna get close, 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:02.880 They're going to make some progress, but the last man's 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.720 gonna get pulled away. Georgia with the right odds, and 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:09.760 it seems that we're getting there may actually have good 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:11.840 value if you're looking to make a wager if Joe 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:16.440 Biden wins big, if this is a historic election, somewhere 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:19.000 in the nature of Ronnie Reagan and eight four about 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:22.200 out the forty nine states sweep, Georgia is one of 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.840 those surprising states. That's gonna flip his way. I don't 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:26.960 think it's gonna happen. I don't think it's more probable 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:29.240 than not. But if you're getting the right odds and 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:31.880 it looks like the markets are just about there, it 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:35.240 may be a good value bet Okay, let's talk about 0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:37.560 the rust belt states because as I'm as I understand 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:40.679 and I think how the conventional wisdom is going right now, 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.080 and most people seem to get it, is if Biden 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:48.160 can win, uh, the trifecta, if you will, of Michigan, Wisconsin, 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:51.839 and Pennsylvania, this thing is over. Katie bar the doors. 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:53.960 They say back down south that this is done ze. 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:56.520 Let's start with these one by one. You guys did 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.280 a great job on your pot about this. Let's start 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:02.560 with Michigan. Um, how do you see that one? As 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:06.600 we look at the real clear politics board here up 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.240 at Visa dot com and the Visa app, that's the 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.880 one of the three Michigan that looks like it is 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:15.640 definitely not definitely, but at least it has a light 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:19.120 shade of blue Michigan right now. The electoral vote, the 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:22.040 electoral vote rather in terms of the betting market, Democrats 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:25.240 minus to sixty Republicans plus two oh nine mac Michigan. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:32.720 Michigan probably does Democratic. I certainly don't like the action 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:34.760 of minus to six D. I don't think it is 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:36.959 that safe from the Democratic cold. But I don't think 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.160 there's enough value of plus two or nine either. It's 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:42.040 a race. I wind to be wagering at those odds 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:44.960 one way or another. If Trump's going to hold on 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:47.840 to Michigan, it's going to be a hidden vote that 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.240 comes out from Again, it's also going to be reverse 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.200 coachail and was a Senate race with a really lovable 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.640 guy named John James's an Iraqi War veteran running on 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:59.679 the Republican ticket, If he can draw out enough of 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:03.000 the true additional GOP base that's been otherwise repulsed by Trump, 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:06.720 and let's just say there's really bad weather in Detroit 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.800 that day or something that sort of tamps down the vote, 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:12.800 it's possible. But I see Michigan going back in the 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.240 Democratic column, and I would say relatively safely. So light 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:19.560 blue does seem like the right shape. Pennsylvania, where the 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:22.600 Democrats are minus two hundred, another state that Trump won 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:27.800 in has come down from minus to fifty. Biden not 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:31.840 quite the polling advantage that he has in Michigan. Do 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:37.040 you think Pennsylvania is in play and and is it really, 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.400 I mean, is it one of these that if Trump 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.480 can win, I mean, that's his only path, right mac, Yes, 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:45.960 his only path is to pick up two of the 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:49.040 three rest spelt states. Trump is an incumbent who's not 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.080 going to add a single state he lost last time 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:53.920 with the possible looks of human the vata, and that's 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.880 sort of exasperatmant to itself if you're looking at the 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.240 big odds, the idea. They have an incumbent who is 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:03.079 not likely to be territory. Pennsylvania's Joe Biden's home state, 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.839 US the senator from Delaware. But he is at least 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:09.360 supposedly a proud son of screen to Pennsylvania, and he's 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:11.280 been pointing that out a lot on the campaign trail. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:16.880 The problem for him is Philadelphia has been not showing 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:20.200 these sort of robust enthusiasm you would want from a 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:24.520 Democratic perspective. Trump has been smart. He's been campaigning hard 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:28.440 in Pennsylvania, not just recently. I mean, remember Donald Trump 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:32.160 started campaigning for re election roughly ten seconds after the 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:34.959 oath of office. So I'm looking to see what we've 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:40.000 got at the moment, Democrats Republicans plus one fifty three, 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.360 I think there's value on the Republican mind there. I 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:45.800 wouldn't take it even money, but at plus one fifty three, 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:47.640 I think Donald Trump could pull this out of his 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.240 back pocket. Again. It's a state that's not getting any 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:52.720 more liberal. It's it's a it's a market that has 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.880 really come down to like every day, Yeah, go ahead, 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:57.920 go ahead. Did I go ahead and interject here? I 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.480 think another thing that you have to get cosider is 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.839 that it's not just a Biden that's making his rounds 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.680 over in Pennsylvania, it's also Obama. And who's gonna who 0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:08.600 has a lot more name recognition at this point, It's 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:11.000 going to be Obama. But something that did help that 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.000 is a big blow for Republicans that would have me 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.920 leaning more towards Democrat, is that the Supreme Court ruled 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:21.400 just yesterday that mail in ballots can't be rejected over 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:25.080 mismatched signatures. So what that means it's different looking signatures 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:28.959 from your ballot than your registration form are no longer disqualifying. 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.959 That's a big blow for the Republicans. Did you find 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:35.640 since you got into this, Pam earlier this year, have 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:39.080 you found that the that the betting interest in this 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:44.280 has grown far wider than you could have imagined. I 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.600 listen every single day. I go about an hour walk 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.480 every single morning, and it's why I need to listen 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:54.120 to podcasts. I am listening to every single political podcast 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.320 that I can. I have absorbed this like it has 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:59.440 become my limb. I'm astonished with myself, to be frank, 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.720 and it's just it's it's just so it's thrilling to 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.360 see the developments from where we were in March to 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:08.679 where we are now, and it's a week away. You're 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.760 seeing the progression from either side, Republicans Democrats, You're getting 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:15.600 viewpoints from Republicans Democrats, and it's just it's it's fascinating 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:17.800 to me, it is and it's it's what. What's what 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.319 me and my friends have talked about the most. Obviously 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.120 we talked about football and baseball and standard as well, 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.520 but this has been the running sort of sidebar the 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:27.320 whole way through. I want to get your thoughts Pam 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.120 on on Florida momentarily, but let's finish the Rust belt 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:33.480 because I know Mac that you were in Wisconsin for 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:37.000 a good period of time. This to me, of all 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:38.520 the things you guys talked about, well, there was a 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:42.600 couple of states, Wisconsin and Nevada were particularly interesting, but Wisconsin, 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:46.400 which is part of that Rust Belt trio. Uh Democrats 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.360 minus two right now Republicans plus two thirty five. These 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.400 are consensus numbers in betting markets globally. Trump wanted in 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.679 polling has been really really interesting because you see some 0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:00.520 polls where Biden is double digits ahead in Wisconsin. You've 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:04.600 lived there, You've worked in politics there. You see this 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:08.640 completely differently from a poll like that I do. I 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:10.640 think it is much closer, and I think it was 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.920 value on the Republican side. Trump was the first Republican 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.640 to pull Wisconsin out in some time. But the fact 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.800 that it's got in the stake close is not coincidence. 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.480 With auto layoffs. The number of unionized employees over the 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.800 past several years has dropped dramatically. That means the number 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.440 of both Democratic voters period has dropped, and the number 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.480 of Democratic voters who are going to be told by 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.360 his or her respective union boss to help and vote 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:39.920 has dropped. There's another issue with Wisconsin. This is not 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:41.680 a good thing, but from a betting point of view, 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:45.720 we've got to take everything into account. Milwaukee is a 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.680 city that contains almost the entire Democratic base of the 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.880 Wisconsin vote outside of Madison, and Milwaukee is a place 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:56.560 where voter suppression occurs on just an enormous and deeply 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.680 unfortunate scale. By no means my condone in this this 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.280 is a terrible thing, but it's baked into the cake. 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.880 The reality is there is year and a year out 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.840 in effort to suppress the African American vote in Milwaukee. 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.840 The African American vote in Milwaukee is a heavily Democratic vote. 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:15.400 The polling obviously isn't suppressed. No one's being turned away 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.320 from answering the phone over dinner. So there tends to 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.040 be a divide between what the polls show in advance 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.400 and what actually happens on election day. Added the fact 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:28.120 the places like Jamesville don't have the auto workers that 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:30.560 they once did. Add in the fact the parts of 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.400 the state have actually done pretty well under Trump, and 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:35.320 I think it's a very close state. I think there's 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.760 a lot of value in the Republican wager at the moment, 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:41.080 I don't know that it makes sense. And an even 0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:42.640 money point, I think Joe Biden is going to win 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.400 the state, but it's much much closer. And add on 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:50.360 to that you have I was just talking about Pennsylvania 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.120 and how the Supreme Court was a big blow for 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:57.440 the Republicans. Well, it's the reverse. It's the Supreme Court 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:00.600 ruled in something that's in favor of the Publicans. The 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.560 Supreme Court will not and this was also something that 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.320 just happened over the weekend. They will not extend the 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.960 deadline for absentee ballots, meaning absentee ballots will be counted 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:13.480 only if they are in the hands I mean musical 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.280 clerks by the time the polls closed on November three. 0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:20.840 So that's a big win for Republicans. Speaking of speaking 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:24.640 of the allegations of voter suppression, or maybe not just allegations, 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:27.040 maybe maybe the reality of voter suppression. We talked about 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:31.800 Milwaukee here moments ago. Uh. Florida pam uh again, another 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.120 state that went to Trump in it was read in 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:39.760 this market very tight Republicans minus one forty four Democrats 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:43.600 plus one twenty. There is a path where Florida or 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:45.960 there is a scenario, I should say where Florida doesn't 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.240 matter in the end. If Biden wins those rust belt states, 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:52.600 maybe even Trump winning Florida will not shift this election 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:57.800 to Donald J. Trump. But Latino's obviously an interesting demographic 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:00.800 in the state of Florida and very hard to sort 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:04.080 of wrangle. Explain that to us if you would. I 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.080 think I'm going to let Mac do this one, because 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.240 I kind of do believe that. I think, yes, it's 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:11.399 a toss up, but I am agreement with him that 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:14.440 it is probably going to go towards Trump and Republican 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:18.560 minus too minus the odds are the voter turnout is 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:23.120 not doing as superb as other states. The voter turnout 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:25.880 is kind of whether it is depression, but it's only 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:30.200 the votes have cast their ballots. They are expecting turnout. 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:34.840 But I myself, I'm I'm not. I don't feel strong, 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:37.760 and I would believe that Mac perhaps would be a 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:39.720 better one to answer on this one when it comes 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.800 to the state back so far, that is where I 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:44.240 went to law school. I don't know that gives a 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:47.159 much way of bona fides, but I've lived in Miami 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:50.160 and I've voted in Miami. One of the really inexplicable 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.919 things is the ratio of Republican voters to Democratic voters 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.640 in Florida has actually gone up over the past four 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.480 years during Trump's first start, meaning there are more registered 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:03.960 Republicans today as a percentage than there were four days ago. 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:08.159 That doesn't jibe with any national arment, doesn't jibe with 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:12.920 anything you expect against a relatively unpopular incumbent president. There's 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:15.600 also a lot of things in Florida that would ordinarily 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:20.159 suggest Biden should be comfortable to heavily minority state, but 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:24.479 and Hamela is much more qualified on this part than me. Uh. 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.720 The Latino and Latino vote is not a singular block. 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.879 It's an enormously complicated voting block. But it's a huge 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:37.040 part of Miami Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, which 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.840 are the three counties in southern Florida that account for 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.760 almost all of the state's Democratic votes, and where they 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:46.560 meaningfully differ from the Latino and Latino votes in places 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:50.240 like Texas and Arizona is there's a heavily Cuban influence. 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.360 Younger generations of Cubans are supposed to be getting more 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:56.879 and more liberal because they did not personally flee the 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:00.560 terrors of Fidel Castro, but somehow that has a planned out. 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:04.840 The Cuban vote has been reliably Republican over the years, 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:09.520 mostly just because of the de facto reaction to anything 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:13.560 that even vaguely sounds like communism or liberalism, which again 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:15.320 put in the side of Merrite from the other day, 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.520 and that's held Florida as a relatively conservative state. So 0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:20.840 I think it is growing to hold for Trump. It 0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:23.840 is now officially his residence. He somehow shut up and 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.080 voted in person the other day, got a good photo op. 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:29.719 But yeah, there's some guys on the public and ticket there. Okay. 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:33.399 So Florida is just Sorda. Is just really hard because 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.840 you're having to guess who is going to turn out 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:39.480 for the vote. You have the older white demographic who 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.439 is very upset at them is handling of coronavirus. And 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:45.280 like Max said, you have the Latino population, which we've 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.920 had this discussion. It is very hard to break down 0:19:47.960 --> 0:19:52.480 the Latino Hispanic population because we have thirty subsidies within 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:55.760 our culture. So somebody who is like he said, you 0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:58.639 have the Cubans, and then you have the Mexicans who 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:00.199 are vote well part of Mexico. Are you've from the 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:02.840 southern Mexico, from the west coast Mexico, Like, it's just 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:05.679 so many So you're trying to have why Florida is 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:08.560 a toss up is because you're trying to guess which 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.359 demographic is going to turn out. Okay, So then to 0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:13.240 both of you here, because we have a pesky commercial 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:16.639 here in a minute, of the states we've talked about Michigan, Wisconsin, 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:20.240 and Pennsylvania, the rust belt states, uh, Florida, and then 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:22.880 let's throw in Georgia and Texas, which is where we started. 0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:26.760 What's the best bet state by state among them as 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:28.640 you see it value wise, either of you could take 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:34.200 that best value is Wisconsin. Safest bet is Florida. Gop 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.680 on both of them, gop on both of you agree 0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:39.680 with that, Pam, I was Wisconsin is going to be 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:42.600 my first response as well, so the value on the 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:45.840 GOP in the state of Wisconsin, which is again one 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.560 of those three that Biden is trying to get to 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:51.640 clinch it and make it an early night a week 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:55.520 from today, election night, November three, one week from today. 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:57.800 All right, we'll come back. It's mac verstanding it's Panela 0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:01.600 Maldonado from Odds Shark talking a election here all hour long. 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:03.520 We'll talk to Dreu Densic on the NFL and Joe 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:06.280 Sheen on MLB. In the second hour. I want to 0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:10.080 get into the state of Nevada, which most people sort 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.959 of think is a done deal. Mac doesn't see it 0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:15.520 that way. We want to get into the interesting demographics 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:17.479 of the state of Nevada, which is a very twenty 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:21.960