Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the college football Week
Speaker 1: five look Ahead, featuring none other than the God of
Speaker 1: Thunder himself, Thor Nystrom. It is gonna be a good
Speaker 1: day here. We are gonna be looking over the best
Speaker 1: lines that you can possibly find for Week five of
Speaker 1: the college football slate. We're gonna be looking at what
Speaker 1: the lines are, what Thor thinks they should be, and
Speaker 1: where he thinks they're gonna be moving before the week's end,
Speaker 1: so you can know if you want to be that
Speaker 1: in early or wait until closer to kickoff. Thor, how
Speaker 1: are you doing today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great, Thomas. The Kansas Jayhawks are five and all.
Speaker 2: You're Syracuse Oranger five and ah, It's another great day
Speaker 2: to be a college football fan.
Speaker 1: It is a fantastic day. Indeed, I am feeling good.
Speaker 2: The Orange.
Speaker 1: I have never seen this happen before, and it was
Speaker 1: a bad beat for anyone who had a ticket on
Speaker 1: the Orange on the spread because they did absolutely cover
Speaker 1: the fifty three point spread they had.
Speaker 2: But if you had a ticket.
Speaker 1: You're out of luck because for the first time I've
Speaker 1: ever seen they agree read to shorten the third and
Speaker 1: fourth quarter by five minutes apiece. They played ten minute
Speaker 1: quarters in the second half. I've never seen that before.
Speaker 2: Yeah, crazy situation. You had a line that opened up
Speaker 2: at Syracuse minus fifty. It closed at Syracuse minus fifty three.
Speaker 2: Some books it got up to fifty four some of
Speaker 2: the offshores, but it was somewhere between fifty and fifty four.
Speaker 2: Anyone that bought a ticket on that game. Syracuse was
Speaker 2: up forty nine to nothing at halftime. Anyone holding a
Speaker 2: Syracuse ticket was feeling pretty good after two quarters, and
Speaker 2: then Dino Babers agreed with the Wagner coaching staff to
Speaker 2: shorten the third quarter in the fourth quarter to a
Speaker 2: ten minute thing, which people out there, just to explain
Speaker 2: to you some of how the sports book. Sports book works.
Speaker 2: You don't have to complete a full sixty minute game
Speaker 2: for a game to be graded, but you do have
Speaker 2: to get over the fifty five minute threshold, and so
Speaker 2: that game, it clocked in at fifty minutes, which nullified
Speaker 2: all tickets purchase on that game. So, even though Syracuse
Speaker 2: ended up winning fifty nine to nothing, covering all tickets
Speaker 2: so it would have been purchased on them, nobody got
Speaker 2: paid out for a Syracuse bet because the game did
Speaker 2: not go over the books limit for what a game
Speaker 2: needs to to get graded.
Speaker 1: Yep, and them's can be the break sometimes that's what
Speaker 1: it was here, But I personally don't care. I'm just
Speaker 1: glad that we came away with yet another W not
Speaker 1: that this one was really in much doubt. But thor Today,
Speaker 1: we're gonna be going over some of the biggest games
Speaker 1: of the week, as well as the games that you're
Speaker 1: telling us have the biggest discrepancy between the line and
Speaker 1: what you think.
Speaker 2: It should be.
Speaker 1: But let's start off with the biggest one of them all.
Speaker 1: College Game Day is headed to Kansas as they take
Speaker 1: on the TCU horn Frogs, who just absolutely swamped at
Speaker 1: oh Oklahoma last week. I didn't necessarily not see that coming,
Speaker 1: but I certainly it's still weird to see TCU dominate
Speaker 1: Oklahoma like that. But this game, Kansas is gonna be
Speaker 1: getting four and a half points. Where do you think
Speaker 1: the line should be in this one?
Speaker 2: I think it should be a little bit higher towards
Speaker 2: the TCU side. And this, you know, I'm remiss to
Speaker 2: say because I'm a Kansas grat, of course, but TCU
Speaker 2: has like that was a team that I was higher
Speaker 2: on over the summer than the marketplace, and they've hopped
Speaker 2: over every marker that I've even set for them. Going
Speaker 2: through the Oklahoma game this past weekend. That that game
Speaker 2: was probably my biggest bet regret of the weekend because
Speaker 2: I didn't bet it. My numbers were screaming at me
Speaker 2: to bet on TCU, and they were on the final
Speaker 2: cut of my my chopping block. And I talked to
Speaker 2: some of my TCU sources and they were a little
Speaker 2: bit more pessimistic about TCU covering that game. But it
Speaker 2: speaks to some of these programs that have jumped way
Speaker 2: up over the offseason. Kansas is a much more precipitous
Speaker 2: example of this, but it's you almost I mean, not
Speaker 2: only do you have to get ahead of the marketplace,
Speaker 2: you have to get ahead of what your own head
Speaker 2: is thinking. And even like that, the people that are
Speaker 2: are more familiar with those programs because the historical president
Speaker 2: of what we've seen in the recent history, it has
Speaker 2: such an effect on the way that you perceive these teams.
Speaker 2: When we have seen Kansas is clearly a better team
Speaker 2: than anything close to what anyone's wildest dreams could have
Speaker 2: expected to this point. It's almost the same way with TCU.
Speaker 2: TCU is a I mean but on a higher end
Speaker 2: of the of the spectrum. TCU is a legitimate Big
Speaker 2: twelve championship contender. They absolutely are. And you know, and
Speaker 2: I talked about this over the summer where last year's
Speaker 2: team they had these two major weaknesses that caused the
Speaker 2: entire Gary Patterson regime to come down to creater. It
Speaker 2: was the passing offense. That rushing offense happened to be
Speaker 2: really really good last year it is again, but it
Speaker 2: was the passing offense brought the whole offense down and
Speaker 2: then the defense overall, which was weird with a Patterson team.
Speaker 2: This team, now moving to twenty twenty two, they brought
Speaker 2: back all of this different experience on defense. They had
Speaker 2: nine or ten starters back. On offense. They brought back
Speaker 2: a bunch of guys too, and then they hired Sonny Dykes,
Speaker 2: the air raid guru, who directly addressed the passing attack
Speaker 2: thing this team. There is no dearth of talent on TCU.
Speaker 2: Gary Patterson's last team that was getting its head pushed
Speaker 2: in in some of these games. That was a talented
Speaker 2: team as well. It's just that things win a scance
Speaker 2: that again, the specific on field things that caused that
Speaker 2: to happen, those things have been directly addressed. TCU has
Speaker 2: jumped so far up. Kansas has of course as well,
Speaker 2: but this is a great measuring stick for both teams.
Speaker 2: My line on this game is TCU minus six point
Speaker 2: four points. It opened I think at five or five
Speaker 2: and a half, and then you've seen some early money
Speaker 2: come in on Kansas, which is not necessarily surprised going
Speaker 2: to the other side, because not only is Kansas five
Speaker 2: and oh straight up, they were also five and oh
Speaker 2: against the spread and they pulled off I believe three
Speaker 2: outright upsets to this point. Believe they've they've been an
Speaker 2: underdog in three of those games, so I can see
Speaker 2: why the marketplace is starting to trust them. But don't
Speaker 2: throw out the baby with the bathwater with regards to TCU,
Speaker 2: because it's the same kind of a story. It's just
Speaker 2: again at a higher level of that spectrum.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting game, I think. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm excited to see it. I'm excited to see if
Speaker 1: Kansas can keep it. All of these come on, wouldn't
Speaker 1: that be a fun story?
Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, yeah, I have to tell you. You don't
Speaker 2: have to tell me. I mean, like for me, Kansas
Speaker 2: haven't if they would have gone four and eight. That
Speaker 2: that's an interesting story to me because that that is
Speaker 2: a jump up from every season that I watch every
Speaker 2: stap at Kansas football. That's a step up from every
Speaker 2: single season that I've seen. Now what is it now,
Speaker 2: eleven years, twelve years? Like you know, I'm like Tom
Speaker 2: Hanks and Castaway. I have been sequestered from quality football
Speaker 2: from my alma mater for so long. I'm out there
Speaker 2: talking to my volleyball and Peyton on a face, you know,
Speaker 2: talking about the Mark man Gino days, and now all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, manna from heaven. It's like we've been,
Speaker 2: you know, rescued from the island. But where Kansas is now.
Speaker 2: I talked about before the you know, beyond your wildest
Speaker 2: expectations before Kansas already this season is way beyond the
Speaker 2: wildest expectations of even the biggest Kansas homer. And there
Speaker 2: doesn't get bigger Kansas football homers than me. I think
Speaker 2: there was about twenty of us that watch every snap
Speaker 2: over the last decade at Kansas football to get to
Speaker 2: this point. So yeah, I mean, it's it tickles us
Speaker 2: all pink, but I mean, beyond that, it is probably
Speaker 2: the story of college football to this point of the season,
Speaker 2: just because it was so wildly unpredictable. We have seen
Speaker 2: some things that are unpredictable this season, Kansas starting out
Speaker 2: with that record and winning some legitimate games. They've beaten
Speaker 2: three Power five teams, they have beaten three ball teams
Speaker 2: from last year. They have won two road games against
Speaker 2: legitimate opponents, both them were ball teams last year. There
Speaker 2: is nothing flukey about what Kansas is doing. There hasn't
Speaker 2: been one game where they were suddenly outplayed and they
Speaker 2: luck box it at the end. They have controlled all
Speaker 2: of these games so far. But again, TCU is a
Speaker 2: different sort of opponent for them. TCU is a team
Speaker 2: people watched them last year, you know, and they might
Speaker 2: be surprised on a different level with them. But again,
Speaker 2: that TCU team had all the talent in the world
Speaker 2: and now they're making use of it. So it's it's
Speaker 2: a different sort of a thing, but again, a great
Speaker 2: measuring stick game. I do think that line is a
Speaker 2: little bit objectively low, because I don't think people are
Speaker 2: giving TCU enough credit, and I think at this point
Speaker 2: now the market has swung a little bit on Kansas,
Speaker 2: where now everybody wants to believe in Kansas. If that
Speaker 2: line comes down, certainly I'm not going to bet against
Speaker 2: my alma mater. But if if that thing comes down
Speaker 2: anymore and it's at you know, four, but especially three
Speaker 2: and a half, for especially three, if that number gets
Speaker 2: down there, for me, that would be a by signal
Speaker 2: on TCU that the market has gone too far on
Speaker 2: the Kansas side. And by the way, I will say
Speaker 2: as far as an in game specific thing, Max Dugan,
Speaker 2: the TCU quarterback, he it was a guy who was
Speaker 2: an incumbent starter for them. It started multiple years for them.
Speaker 2: Max Dugan is a kid who has very good mobility
Speaker 2: and he's got a strong arm. His bugaboo has always
Speaker 2: been accuracy, and so when Sunny Dykes got hired as
Speaker 2: the TCU coach, everybody expected TCU to turn the job
Speaker 2: over to Chad Morris's kid, Chandler Morris. He's small, he's
Speaker 2: shorter the Max Dugan. He weighs less than Max Dugan.
Speaker 2: He does not have Max Dugan's arm, and he does
Speaker 2: not have Max Dugan's and letticism either. But he's more accurate,
Speaker 2: and he understood that the spread system, that the whole
Speaker 2: a raate thing, et cetera. He was a better fit
Speaker 2: for it. But he comes out in the opener against Colorado.
Speaker 2: The one half that Morris played, the TCU offense was
Speaker 2: not moving against against one of the worst teams in
Speaker 2: the FBS. Colorado just fired its coach earlier today, as
Speaker 2: we're coming to you on Sunday. They fired Carl Durell.
Speaker 2: But anyway, what once Chandler Morris got injured, they bring
Speaker 2: in Max Dugan. They were scoring touchdown, touchdown, touchdown throughout
Speaker 2: that you know, the second half, and then the next
Speaker 2: game they played an FCS team, but Dugan played awesome
Speaker 2: in that game. That wasn't you know, a measuring stick
Speaker 2: or anything like that. But then now last week they
Speaker 2: play Oklahoma and Dugan looked awesome. So it's like, what
Speaker 2: a big key for this game is how is Max
Speaker 2: Dugan gonna do through the air against Kansas. Kansas the
Speaker 2: secondary's played way better than we were anticipating so far
Speaker 2: this season, and they've been particularly good at making plays
Speaker 2: on the ball. So if Max Dugan throws a couple
Speaker 2: up where they're errant or he makes the wrong decision,
Speaker 2: you could see the field getting flipped really quick. But
Speaker 2: if Max Dugan keeps playing the way that he's been playing,
Speaker 2: TCU has the talent of advantage across the formation. Their
Speaker 2: best receiver. They don't even throw it to him. They
Speaker 2: haven't thrown into him a ton yet. But Quinton Johnson,
Speaker 2: I think he's a legitimate top fifty NFL draft prospect.
Speaker 2: He's started like a poor man's Julio Jones in terms
Speaker 2: of his frame, in terms as boss scales, in terms
Speaker 2: of running after the catch with the ball. Super talented kid.
Speaker 2: And then they got two or three other receivers as well. Kansas,
Speaker 2: I don't know, can go cornerback for you, cornerback for
Speaker 2: receiver across the formation. But again, that's all gonna come
Speaker 2: down to do get because I think the TCU receivers
Speaker 2: are gonna win that matchup. Ken Dugan be accurate enough
Speaker 2: to take advantage of that. On the one side. I
Speaker 2: also think Jalen Daniel's going to the other side. I
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be able to take advantage of some
Speaker 2: of the TCU defensive stuff as well. Even though that
Speaker 2: TCU defense is up Jalen Dale has just been playing
Speaker 2: so well so far, between the rushing and between the passing. Again,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a very interesting game. But objectively, trying
Speaker 2: to put down my Crimson and blue glasses for just
Speaker 2: a second, I probably would lean to tcut with where
Speaker 2: the line is right now, and again, especially if that
Speaker 2: thing toggles into the threes, I probably betting on TCU.
Speaker 1: The next game up that we got here USC. They
Speaker 1: took down the Sun Devils last week. Now they will
Speaker 1: take on Washington State and they are going to be
Speaker 1: playing this one as ten and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1: Do you think this line should be a little bit higher.
Speaker 2: I do. Yeah. My line on it is USC minus
Speaker 2: thirteen point three. We've seen a weird thing with the
Speaker 2: marketplace with USC, where it's like almost every every other week,
Speaker 2: it's like one week that the market is way heavier
Speaker 2: on USC, so you have to pay the USC tax,
Speaker 2: but then it's like the next week they'll be doubting USC,
Speaker 2: and then like you get you're sort of getting line
Speaker 2: credit if you bet on USC. It's weird. It's almost
Speaker 2: like it's a matchup specific and you can tell that
Speaker 2: the market does not have its finger on USC. Yet
Speaker 2: whatsoever the sharp betters don't, the public does, nobody does
Speaker 2: at this point. But USC has continued to win some
Speaker 2: of these games in sort of inauspicious circumstances or sort
Speaker 2: of through things that the stats would point to you
Speaker 2: as potentially fluky, for instance, like dominating the and over
Speaker 2: margin in their first four games, something that is not sustainable,
Speaker 2: especially knowing how many new starters they had on that defense.
Speaker 2: But the offense is gonna get better and better and better.
Speaker 2: We've already started to see some of that. You know,
Speaker 2: I'm they're offensive talent. You put it up against dang
Speaker 2: or any team in the nation. So for me, this
Speaker 2: line is short. I also think the market trust Washington State,
Speaker 2: so I think it's a little bit of residual doubt
Speaker 2: on the USC side, a little bit of doubt or
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, a little bit of debt for USC, but
Speaker 2: being more confident in Washington State with some of these
Speaker 2: performances that they put up. I'm showing almost three points
Speaker 2: a line value on USC with where the line opened.
Speaker 1: Aut I'm with you, I think that this I'm probably
Speaker 1: gonna end up betting USC in this one, but I
Speaker 1: am certainly not the expert here, but I just don't
Speaker 1: trust Washington State at this point. I think that USC,
Speaker 1: especially on home soil here, is going to be able
Speaker 1: to figure it out. But next game up, it's definitely
Speaker 1: a little more close to home because I cannot stand
Speaker 1: the fact that Clemson took down NC State this weekend
Speaker 1: because we were gonna get college game Day again, the
Speaker 1: Syracuse NC State game, but instead Clemson comes out victorious
Speaker 1: and now they head to Boston College as twenty and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites.
Speaker 2: I will say, though, this is.
Speaker 1: Not the Clemson team that had Trevor Lawrence. They have
Speaker 1: taken a real step back.
Speaker 2: Oh well, yeah, for sure, for sure. But I mean
Speaker 2: on Saturday yesterday, as we're coming to you right now,
Speaker 2: was a very impressive performance by Clemson in lieu of
Speaker 2: the circumstances. They had almost their entire defense either ruled
Speaker 2: out before the game or got injured or ejected in
Speaker 2: the first half, and so the fact that they held
Speaker 2: on and ended up winning by ten, I believe beating
Speaker 2: a very quality NC State team again in lieu of
Speaker 2: those circumstances was pretty crazy. Like Brian Brese was ruled
Speaker 2: out right before the game, Tyler Davis was out, they
Speaker 2: had one of those stud edge rushers was out, They
Speaker 2: lost one of the safeties to a targeting ejection. I
Speaker 2: believe in the second quarter of that game. There their
Speaker 2: linebacker that makes all the line calls. He was out
Speaker 2: with an injury, I believe in the first quarter with
Speaker 2: regards to this handicap. So again, very impressive that they
Speaker 2: did what they did two NC State. They controlled that
Speaker 2: entire game with essentially their B team defense. So for me,
Speaker 2: that is super impressive. Yes, they're not the National championship
Speaker 2: Clemson teams, you know, whether it's the Laurence seam or
Speaker 2: the WATS team whatever. But like I mean, again, in
Speaker 2: Lewis circumstances this game, what you need to pay attention
Speaker 2: to this week is the reports coming out of Clemson
Speaker 2: about the front seven, the health of those guys. You know,
Speaker 2: again Brise was out. You have the injury questions with Davis,
Speaker 2: a couple of the edge rudgers, rushers are compromise. Have
Speaker 2: to see about that linebacker, what what his ailment is
Speaker 2: it and if he could be back as well. But
Speaker 2: the reason that awesome Clemson, you know, objectively awesome Clemson
Speaker 2: front seven is so important in this matchup is Boston
Speaker 2: College has one of the worst offensive lines, not just
Speaker 2: in the Power five, in the entire FBS. It has
Speaker 2: been stunning to watch how far the Boston College offensive
Speaker 2: line fell off from what we knew of it in
Speaker 2: recent seasons. They I mean, like you go back the
Speaker 2: last five years, they have sent numerous offensive linemen into
Speaker 2: the NFL. But it went from that to a dumpster
Speaker 2: fire overnight in one season. And I can tell you
Speaker 2: Zay Flowers, the receiver from Boston College who was willing
Speaker 2: to listen to nil offers over the off season and
Speaker 2: ended up deciding to come back to Boston College. And
Speaker 2: he made a big deal of it if I turned
Speaker 2: down all these other offers where I was going to
Speaker 2: get more money, et cetera. I don't think he's puffing
Speaker 2: his chest out about that anymore. I think Jay Flowers
Speaker 2: would wish he could rewind the clock to the offseason
Speaker 2: and lead boss in college, Phil Jerkovic, might be thinking
Speaker 2: the same and or I wish I'd gone to the NFL.
Speaker 2: But he was in a tough spot because he had
Speaker 2: most of his previous season had been wiped out with
Speaker 2: an injury, and when he was playing. He was compromised
Speaker 2: with that injury. But those guys are being hamstrung by
Speaker 2: that offensive line. Now they got this one game of
Speaker 2: you know, it's like every dog has its day, and
Speaker 2: that was Boston College yesterday against Louisville. They took advantage
Speaker 2: of this Louisville team that has been chas essentially chasing
Speaker 2: tail all season. Nobody can seem to figure out exactly
Speaker 2: what Louisville's identity is, what kind of team do they
Speaker 2: want to be, what exactly is Scott Saderfield's long term vision.
Speaker 2: It's like Scott Saderfield got on the hot sege he
Speaker 2: expected things to go different, but then all of a
Speaker 2: sudden he foun himself on the hot seat. And then
Speaker 2: this offseason he just spent going yolo in the transfer
Speaker 2: portal and he did win some derbies for like some
Speaker 2: of these high profile guys, and so you were wondering, like, well,
Speaker 2: maybe maybe he's onto something, you know, being aggressive, and
Speaker 2: he was like Lane was aggressive. Obviously Lincoln Riley was
Speaker 2: the most aggressive, but like maybe you know, sort of
Speaker 2: along that line of continuum and maybe he shored up
Speaker 2: the deficiencies, the very obvious ones that we had seen
Speaker 2: with the Louisville team the season previous, that the two
Speaker 2: years previous or whatever. But one of the main guys
Speaker 2: got injured, Jermaine Lowell, the guy that they brought him
Speaker 2: from Arizona State. Some of the other ones are not
Speaker 2: playing as well as they had thought. So it's it's
Speaker 2: not only strategically short I mean game in and game
Speaker 2: out short term that you're sort of scratching your head
Speaker 2: or long term of what exactly is Sadderfield doing here.
Speaker 2: You also have the thing of the things that the
Speaker 2: roster moves that they were making to try to shore
Speaker 2: up some of these deficiencies, either or not working out
Speaker 2: or the plan got foiled through injury or whatever. For
Speaker 2: as far as Boston College goes, if Clemson's front seven
Speaker 2: is as depreciated by injuries and attrition as it was
Speaker 2: in the previous game against NZ State, that would be
Speaker 2: the only scenario where someone should consider betting on Boston College.
Speaker 2: But even in this game, because that the discrepancy between
Speaker 2: Clemson's front seven and Boston College's offensive line is that
Speaker 2: precipitous where it doesn't really even matter what the point
Speaker 2: spread is, because if the one train starts rolling Boston
Speaker 2: College is gonna have a real problem, Like Djerkovic is
Speaker 2: going to be seeing multiple guys in his face immediately
Speaker 2: after getting every snap. If that's the case, But it
Speaker 2: I think it's very dependent on that because if Clemson
Speaker 2: does still have all those guys out, they're coming off
Speaker 2: of a big win. If they're still playing all the
Speaker 2: second stringers in the front seven, and then the third
Speaker 2: stringers become the rotational guys because Dabo does like to
Speaker 2: rotate guys in Venables did too when he was there.
Speaker 2: If that's still the case, and maybe they Clemson withholds
Speaker 2: people because they know the Boston College stings year, that
Speaker 2: would be the thing that I'd be monitoring for this game.
Speaker 2: Otherwise I don't have any interest in it, but you
Speaker 2: need to know about Clemson's front seven down if all
Speaker 2: the Clemson guys are back on Saturday, I actually might
Speaker 2: bet on Clemson just because they will overwhelm Boston College's
Speaker 2: offensive line like a tidal wave.
Speaker 1: The next game that we've got up here, Texas versus Oklahoma.
Speaker 1: All you know, it's always a good one and Oklahoma
Speaker 1: is going to be getting four and a half points here.
Speaker 2: Is Texas really back? I don't know if I don't
Speaker 2: know if I go that far, but every time, Yeah,
Speaker 2: the key for this one is is Quinn you Weers back.
Speaker 2: We have thought each of the last two games that
Speaker 2: we were gonna see Quinn you wers the one two games.
Speaker 2: So before this past weekend he had become listed on
Speaker 2: the depth chart as a co starter again. He had
Speaker 2: returned to practice provisionally and then he went through like
Speaker 2: the warm ups and stuff, but he didn't play in
Speaker 2: that one. And then last week we were hoping for
Speaker 2: him too, and it was the same sort of a
Speaker 2: thing where they were listening him on the depth chart,
Speaker 2: he warmed up before the game, you know, all that
Speaker 2: sort of he was at practice stuff like that, but
Speaker 2: did not end up playing in that one, which, you know,
Speaker 2: in one sense, it's like, well, for two weeks they've
Speaker 2: sort of indicated that he very well maybe back for
Speaker 2: that game, but he hasn't played, So maybe we should
Speaker 2: be more pessimistic about Queen Yours's status for this game.
Speaker 2: But on the other hand, I remember two weeks ago
Speaker 2: when there was the report of like quin Ewers could
Speaker 2: actually play this weekend, and and like I called someone
Speaker 2: and I was like, is this bs, cause it was
Speaker 2: way ahead of what the timeline initially that they the
Speaker 2: texts had given us for Queen Yours potential recovery. So
Speaker 2: I was pretty stunned two weeks ago. And and then
Speaker 2: you know, it was like, is he that far ahead
Speaker 2: of the schedule of his you know, recovery timeline whatever,
Speaker 2: And and you know, of course then again he didn't
Speaker 2: end up playing. He also did not end up playing
Speaker 2: yesterday against West Virginia. But the important thing to know
Speaker 2: is the Oklahoma game was always circled. It's not just
Speaker 2: circled on the team calendar for Texas once quinn Ewers
Speaker 2: was injured. If you go back and you google the
Speaker 2: stories from the day after quinn Youwrs' injury and the
Speaker 2: Austin Beat reporters writing up that game, almost every single
Speaker 2: one of them was like, the target date for quinn Youwrs'
Speaker 2: return is the Red Red River rivalry game against Oklahoma.
Speaker 2: This is the game that they were getting them ready for.
Speaker 2: I would expect quinn Ewers to play because of the
Speaker 2: indication we got in the last two weeks, because this
Speaker 2: was the game that was on the timeline. You know,
Speaker 2: it wasn't like a pie in the sky thing. This
Speaker 2: was the correct timeline for quinn Ewers to return. So
Speaker 2: I think you know, between that, we'll see about Xavier
Speaker 2: worthies how they you know, he one hundred percent, but
Speaker 2: if you got one hundred, you know, ninety percent quin yours,
Speaker 2: let's say, and then you got close to one hundred
Speaker 2: percent Xavier Worthy. John Robinson and all those guys going
Speaker 2: up against his Oklahoma team that we have seen now
Speaker 2: mightily struggle against Kansas State and TCU, two teams that
Speaker 2: were not being talked about as big Big twelve title
Speaker 2: contenders coming into the season. This Texas offense could give
Speaker 2: them real problems. And we saw what Texas's defense did
Speaker 2: to a full strength Alabama offense in Week two. The
Speaker 2: Texas defense is up this year so and it bears
Speaker 2: mentioning Dylan Gabriel status. Dylan Gabriel suffered a one of
Speaker 2: those injuries yesterday where it was like you sort of
Speaker 2: hold your breath, you know, and then they went to
Speaker 2: the commercial and they carted him off the field. He
Speaker 2: took a really nasty shot to his head. We'll see,
Speaker 2: you know, we never know what that especially because in
Speaker 2: college they don't have to do the injury report, and
Speaker 2: in fact, the coaches not only did they not have
Speaker 2: to give the injury report, they can also hide behind
Speaker 2: essentially hide behind the hippolas where I don't need to
Speaker 2: give you guys any information because I'm protect the kid,
Speaker 2: the college kid, the college student, YadA YadA. So we
Speaker 2: don't get a lot of accurate injury information for those reasons.
Speaker 2: But that's something where you're gonna need to monitor the
Speaker 2: situation this week and then read in between the lines,
Speaker 2: because these things are very important as far as this
Speaker 2: handicap goes. If Dylan gabriel is not playing, Oklahoma is
Speaker 2: up up Poops Creek in this game. Oklahoma has not
Speaker 2: been impressive all season. We saw Texas man handle West
Speaker 2: Virginia last week with Hudson Cards starting. If they're at
Speaker 2: full strength going against an Oklahoma team without Dylan Gabrielle,
Speaker 2: Texas might be back for one weekend.
Speaker 1: Now. The next game that we've got up here in
Speaker 1: the last one we're gonna get to before we get
Speaker 1: into some of your biggest line discrepancies. Michigan versus Indiana.
Speaker 1: Indiana getting twenty two and a half points at home here,
Speaker 1: but this Michigan team Jim. We know that Jim Harbaugh
Speaker 1: is not afraid to just blow teams out, and I
Speaker 1: am not of the belief that Indiana is even remotely good.
Speaker 1: I feel like this could be a whole lot more
Speaker 1: than twenty two points by the end of it.
Speaker 2: No, yeah, I mean Indiana thinks My line in this
Speaker 2: game is Michigan minus twenty three point three. If I
Speaker 2: was setting the line as a book maker, I probably
Speaker 2: would have installed it at Michigan minus twenty four and
Speaker 2: a half, to be honest, because I wouldn't mind having
Speaker 2: exposure to the Michigan side on this one. Indiana is
Speaker 2: the luckiest this This is not an opinion the second
Speaker 2: order wins or you know pick your statu choice. India.
Speaker 2: The Indiana Hoosiers are the singular most lucky team in
Speaker 2: college football all season in terms of what their expected
Speaker 2: wins would be based on their performance on the field
Speaker 2: against what their wins actually are in the standings. They're
Speaker 2: a fraudulent team. Michigan is anything but a fraudulent team.
Speaker 2: Indiana's stuff. They pulled multiple wins out out of their
Speaker 2: you know what at the very end in games where
Speaker 2: they were soundly outplayed. This season, the fourth quarter, late
Speaker 2: fourth quarter heroics are not going to be there against Michigan.
Speaker 2: I would expect Michigan to absolutely wipe the floor with Indiana.
Speaker 1: Now let's talk about this next game up here. We're
Speaker 1: going to get into some of your line discrepant season.
Speaker 1: We're gonna start off with one more big game here
Speaker 1: because we got the number two team in the land,
Speaker 1: Georgia laying twenty seven and a half against Auburn. The
Speaker 1: times have been a little tougher for Auburn as of late.
Speaker 2: They for sure have. Yeah, Brian Harrison managed to save
Speaker 2: his job again this week. You know, it's funny. It's
Speaker 2: like the Brian Harson Show of like how long he
Speaker 2: can prolong the inevitable. The previous week, there was all
Speaker 2: the reports the day before the game against Missouri that
Speaker 2: if Harson loses to Missouri, he will be fired, which
Speaker 2: nobody was surprised by that at all, because everybody at
Speaker 2: Auburn has wanted to fight Harrison since the end of
Speaker 2: last season. And then Auburn absolutely should have lost that game.
Speaker 2: They were outplayed by Missouri during it. Even at the
Speaker 2: end of the game it required flukey start stands to
Speaker 2: get into overtime. It also required flukey circumstances for Auburn
Speaker 2: to prevail on overtime. They shouldn't have won that game
Speaker 2: at multiple different junctures, whether it was in regulation or
Speaker 2: whether it was in overtime, but they managed to. So
Speaker 2: then Harrison held on for another week, and then this
Speaker 2: past week against LSU, it was the opposite Auburn and
Speaker 2: I say this with a tear in my eye to
Speaker 2: quote Rick Flair, but Auburn, like because I was on
Speaker 2: LSU minus eight or whatever, and Auburn, I have to acknowledge,
Speaker 2: actually outplayed LSU on the field for the vast majority
Speaker 2: of that game. LSU was able to pull it out,
Speaker 2: I believe by four at the end. Unfortunately for me,
Speaker 2: it wasn't enough to cover my ticket. But Auburn probably
Speaker 2: deserved to win that game, and they didn't. But they
Speaker 2: played well enough, and in conjunction with the what was
Speaker 2: a flukey win the week before, Harson's going to be
Speaker 2: hanging on for one more week. This does not seem
Speaker 2: like a good proposition, Harson. This week, you got the
Speaker 2: best performance from your team of the season last week, right,
Speaker 2: the best effort that you have gotten from them back
Speaker 2: against the Wall game, and you came up just short.
Speaker 2: Probably shouldn't have, but that's that's the way it went down.
Speaker 2: You took a loss in a game that you could
Speaker 2: have won. And now you got to turn around the
Speaker 2: next week after being deflated like that. You need to
Speaker 2: head into Athens, Georgia to face this Georgia team that
Speaker 2: has gone from this goliath the nation, the defending national champions.
Speaker 2: Then in week one they wiped the floor with Oregon.
Speaker 2: Everyone's toasting their champagne glasses to the Georgia Bulldogs. But
Speaker 2: over the last two weeks now they're starting to get
Speaker 2: mocked by the same people that were praising them before
Speaker 2: and they are well aware of it. Between essentially no
Speaker 2: showing the Kent State game, you know, they just thought
Speaker 2: that they were gonna roll the ball out and they
Speaker 2: were gonna play around with them like a cat with
Speaker 2: a mouse, and Kent State actually showed up for that
Speaker 2: game and was game with them. And then last yesterday
Speaker 2: on Saturday, against Missouri, it was it was stunning how
Speaker 2: poorly Georgia was playing in that game and allowing Missouri
Speaker 2: to I shouldn't even say allowing them to hang around,
Speaker 2: because Missouri led for long portions of that game, and
Speaker 2: Georgia was it wasn't even like the Kent stake in
Speaker 2: that the effort was very clearly lacking. Like from the
Speaker 2: start it was like okay, boys, like the game started,
Speaker 2: you know, like stuff like that. The Missouri game was
Speaker 2: weird because there was these several different spots where like
Speaker 2: Georgia just did something incredibly stupid or inopportune that gifted Missouri,
Speaker 2: whether it's field position or a situation or whatever, and
Speaker 2: then they got behind the eight ball and then had
Speaker 2: to come back to the very end. But either way,
Speaker 2: now Auburn has to go into essentially what is a
Speaker 2: pissed off horness nest. I don't know if I can
Speaker 2: say pissed off on the pod, but Georgia is they
Speaker 2: have not been locked in at all the last two weeks,
Speaker 2: but they're going to be reading about that and how
Speaker 2: now they've dropped in the polls all this different stuff,
Speaker 2: people aren't trusting them anymore. YadA, YadA, YadA. Not a
Speaker 2: great situational spot for Auburn. A locked in Georgia is
Speaker 2: going to wipe the floor with this Auburn team. And
Speaker 2: I've been waiting for Auburn to quit on Harson. It's
Speaker 2: going to happen when the chips are down at some point,
Speaker 2: this might be the opportunity for it, and then they
Speaker 2: just get boat race and then that's the end of Harson.
Speaker 2: Even though my systems showing a couple of points of
Speaker 2: theoretical line value on Georgia, it's not baking. In the
Speaker 2: context of the ancillary details of this thing, I definitely
Speaker 2: would not bet on Auburn in that game.
Speaker 1: The next one up here, we've got Ohio State and
Speaker 1: Michigan State, and Michigan State getting twenty four and a
Speaker 1: half points at home here. Do you like the Buckeyes
Speaker 1: to be able to just absolutely run over this game
Speaker 1: or is Michigan State going to be pal able to
Speaker 1: put up a little bit of a fight here.
Speaker 2: It's this is assuredly going to be a stay away
Speaker 2: gay for me. It's another game where my numbers are
Speaker 2: appointing at Michigan State. But they've done that now for
Speaker 2: multiple weeks. I'm not the only and last week it
Speaker 2: burned me that that, you know, that was one of
Speaker 2: my worst ones too. I tried to take the eight
Speaker 2: nine points of Michigan State against Maryland and we saw
Speaker 2: how that one worked out. It has been a struggle
Speaker 2: for people who do what I do to try to
Speaker 2: catch up to how far Michigan State has fallen, because
Speaker 2: it goes beyond even what would sort of the band
Speaker 2: of outcomes of what data would suggest is theoretically probable,
Speaker 2: like Michigan State is, they're falling beneath the band of
Speaker 2: outcomes Like this is actually bad for mel Tucker. It's
Speaker 2: not bad for him in terms of his job status.
Speaker 2: They can't fire him because he's got ninety five million
Speaker 2: dollars left on his deal, but it doesn't show very
Speaker 2: well for him and his dedication is after getting that
Speaker 2: big deal. We're gonna have to see what goes on
Speaker 2: at Michigan State because now you have this marriage long term,
Speaker 2: neither side can get out of it. Mel Tucker is
Speaker 2: going to need to get that motivation back that this
Speaker 2: team might The point I'm trying to make is this
Speaker 2: team might have arrived into this season dead on arrival. Essentially,
Speaker 2: it doesn't seem like Tucker made as many alterations in
Speaker 2: additions through the transfer portal as he could have one
Speaker 2: player leaving a team. Kenneth Walker in this case shouldn't
Speaker 2: especially a running back in the game of football should
Speaker 2: not cause you to go from a consensus top ten
Speaker 2: team to a team that now might be out of
Speaker 2: the consensus top fifty. Like it just shouldn't have. I mean,
Speaker 2: Michigan State brought back a decent amount of places, and yes,
Speaker 2: they have had inactives, you know, maybe more than the
Speaker 2: average team so far. You know, Jayden Reid missed one
Speaker 2: of those lobsided losses, They've had multiple injuries to key guys,
Speaker 2: et cetera. But even so, that far of a drop off.
Speaker 2: I tried. It's funny, Thomas. I went on a VSI
Speaker 2: in show on Friday and they asked me about that
Speaker 2: Michigan State Maryland game, and I just sort of chuckled,
Speaker 2: and I said, like, I have to do it because
Speaker 2: my system is yelling at me one more time that
Speaker 2: Michigan there's value on Michigan State. So I said, I said,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them, but I said, I promise you
Speaker 2: guys this. If Michigan State does not cover this game
Speaker 2: and they're not particularly like it wasn't a fluky reason
Speaker 2: that they didn't cover it, I said, that is the
Speaker 2: last time I will try to stick my hand in
Speaker 2: the cookie jar of Michigan State under the auspice of
Speaker 2: the idea that I'm getting value by buying low. I'm
Speaker 2: done with that. I will not put any more of
Speaker 2: my heart earned money behind mel Tucker, at least in
Speaker 2: the short term. So even though again my numbers are
Speaker 2: showing I got Ohio State minus twenty point six in
Speaker 2: that game, so my numbers are showing around four points
Speaker 2: of line value on Michigan State. But it's we can't
Speaker 2: we can't manually adjust Michigan State down far enough to
Speaker 2: recognize what the Vegas lines are on it. I just
Speaker 2: got to stay away from their games and or bet
Speaker 2: on the other team. But this one probably with where
Speaker 2: this line started, this game being in east Land saying
Speaker 2: it's probably gonna be a stay away informational game for me.
Speaker 1: I think that's definitely a wise course of action.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: Ohio State, I don't know. I think they'll be tired
Speaker 1: off the beatdown of Rutgers.
Speaker 2: You know, Rutgers covering that game, though very importantly.
Speaker 1: They did cover in that game. That is important to realize.
Speaker 1: And now we're gonna go from a soso Ohio team
Speaker 1: to the class of the Buckeye State Miami of Ohio
Speaker 1: is taking on Kent State. Here in Miami's getting three
Speaker 1: and a half points in this game. I know this
Speaker 1: is going to be one of the big ones. I'm
Speaker 1: surprised Game Day didn't decide to go here instead. But
Speaker 1: where are you going in Miami of Ohia versus Kent State.
Speaker 2: The good people of Miami, Ohio are going to be
Speaker 2: very happy that you heard that, including shout out to
Speaker 2: my buddy Tom Downey, a Cowboys writer that went to
Speaker 2: Miami of Ohio, who calls them the real Miami. Whenever
Speaker 2: we would do the online dinos for NCAA fourteen, Downey
Speaker 2: would I always immediately call Miami, Ohio.
Speaker 1: So anyway, I actually my entire mom's side of my
Speaker 1: family are buck Eyes, except my great aunt who went
Speaker 1: to Miami of Ohio.
Speaker 2: Oh really yeah, okay, yeah, so the real Miami, I guess,
Speaker 2: as Downey would say, this game is. It's another one
Speaker 2: that's really interesting to me. And the reason why is
Speaker 2: because coming into today, like when you know, for me Sundays,
Speaker 2: I watched my vikings and then the rest of it,
Speaker 2: I'm running, as Thomas knows, I'm running my numbers and
Speaker 2: get my injury notes up until we shoot the show
Speaker 2: or whatever. This game was one where I you know,
Speaker 2: when you're looking at the card before you run the numbers,
Speaker 2: it's one where you're sort of hoping that you're gonna
Speaker 2: get a value on a specific side, and then it
Speaker 2: didn't happen for me. I came in like and preferring
Speaker 2: Ken State because coming into the year, like, I like
Speaker 2: Sean Lewis going back years and years and years. He
Speaker 2: was Deno Babers' longtime offensive coordinator when Dino like like
Speaker 2: had all the explosive offenses and stuff like that, like
Speaker 2: bowling Green specifically or whatever, and he has done all
Speaker 2: that stuff with Ken State and typically you get a
Speaker 2: lot of value with Ken State in early October during
Speaker 2: the Lewis era. The reason why is because Ken State notoriously,
Speaker 2: for their four non conference games, notoriously takes three enormous
Speaker 2: checks from the blue Bloods. This year it was Georgia
Speaker 2: because I was the one that they getting close in Washington,
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna blame on the third one. But anyway,
Speaker 2: that's what they do every year, and then they play
Speaker 2: one FCS team so that like one of the four
Speaker 2: they'll take the win. But they usually lay down in
Speaker 2: those games. It's not just a talent discrepancy. It's that
Speaker 2: Ken State wants. They want to set themselves up as
Speaker 2: well as they can for the MAC schedule in the
Speaker 2: short term. That's what the coaching staff wants, and then
Speaker 2: of course the athletic program wants to set the rest
Speaker 2: of their sporting programs up well long term. It's the
Speaker 2: reason why they're putting the football team in a bad
Speaker 2: situation with the three payoff games. But that's the way
Speaker 2: it manifests is usually they get annihilated in all those games,
Speaker 2: and then once you get into October and they're playing
Speaker 2: these MAC teams, it's like a one in three Kent
Speaker 2: State team that you've seen lose by fifty points three times.
Speaker 2: Now they're facing a different team that you know, maybe
Speaker 2: as a better record because they don't play nearly as
Speaker 2: hard of a schedule, whatever, and then you can get
Speaker 2: value on Kent State. So that's what I was sitting
Speaker 2: dead right on coming into it. Then I ran my numbers,
Speaker 2: and my numbers were to quote league or so said,
Speaker 2: not so fast, my friend on this or that. The
Speaker 2: rest of the market was thinking exactly what I was thinking,
Speaker 2: and that that sort of pulled the line the other way.
Speaker 2: But right now we got a line up kent State
Speaker 2: minus three and a half at Miami of Ohio, whereas
Speaker 2: my line on this game is Miami of Ohio minus
Speaker 2: one point seven. Miami Ohio a team that just got
Speaker 2: upset at home by Buffalo Buffalo, a team that it
Speaker 2: was on the Miami was at at Buffalo, but they
Speaker 2: did lose that game. Buffalo is a team that the
Speaker 2: market had liked before and had missed on it, missed
Speaker 2: on and missed on it, and then finally Buffalo got
Speaker 2: right playing this Miami of Ohio team the week before,
Speaker 2: though Miami Ohio had beaten Northwestern. You can certainly nippick
Speaker 2: Northwestern as a team as far as being a Big
Speaker 2: ten Big ten team, but like for Miami, Miami of Ohio,
Speaker 2: that was a big win. And then the other games
Speaker 2: they played was Kentucky and Cincinnati and then an FCS team,
Speaker 2: So it's hard to get information about Miami beyond that.
Speaker 2: Kenn State is stuck in everybody's head because they played
Speaker 2: Georgia so well, right, and then last week we might
Speaker 2: have gotten more value on the other like for pushing
Speaker 2: it towards ken State or yeah, ken State getting the
Speaker 2: value so so so the line getting pushed more towards
Speaker 2: Miami and Ohio. Had Ken State not held on for
Speaker 2: an overtime win against Ohio last week, Ohio was able
Speaker 2: to keep that one close. And then you know, of
Speaker 2: course in overtime that that's where Ken State ended up
Speaker 2: winning by a touchdown. In terms of the overall talent
Speaker 2: UH and and again the schematics, and and who I
Speaker 2: trust in it? I trust Sean Lewis a little bit
Speaker 2: more he did. Ken State did lose some guys over
Speaker 2: the They lost their starting quarterback, a kid that actually
Speaker 2: got to look from the NFL went to the combine.
Speaker 2: Stuff like that, they have a new quarterback, they have
Speaker 2: some new new guys in important UH spots on their team,
Speaker 2: skill positions, et cetera. But with where my numbers are
Speaker 2: telling me, instead of this game being a Sunday bet
Speaker 2: on Ken State, it became a I need to sit
Speaker 2: back and I need to handicap this game during the
Speaker 2: week and decide if my preconceived notions or you know,
Speaker 2: disposition heading into it of preferring Ken State provisionally, if
Speaker 2: that is what I actually believe after I dig into
Speaker 2: the numbers, the matchups of the one team's you know,
Speaker 2: rushing efficiency against the other team's run defense efficiency, the
Speaker 2: explosion on both all that sort of stuff. The end
Speaker 2: game stuff is, you know, should I ride with what
Speaker 2: I initially felt or should I ride with what my
Speaker 2: sort of tree top numbers are telling me. It's going
Speaker 2: to be a handicap for me this week, and it's
Speaker 2: gonna be one of the games that I dig deepest into,
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 1: And that's the thing. These smaller games, the ones that
Speaker 1: you're not really thinking about because they don't grab the headlines,
Speaker 1: that's where you're gonna be able to get a better
Speaker 1: price in the market, kind of like the next one
Speaker 1: up here. You already talked about Buffalo. Well, they're playing
Speaker 1: Bowling Green now Bowling Green laying minus one and a
Speaker 1: half in this game. Where are you going to this
Speaker 1: is your line says it should be very different.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Buffalo is. You know I talked about like the
Speaker 2: market where the market in if I'm recalling right, it
Speaker 2: was weeks two and three where the market was like
Speaker 2: it there was so much action going in on Buffalo
Speaker 2: where you're like, if you've done this for long enough,
Speaker 2: you're looking at the line moves and you're looking at
Speaker 2: the tickets bought and stuff like that, and you're just
Speaker 2: sort of scratching your head of like, who knows more
Speaker 2: about this game than I do? And what do they know?
Speaker 2: But then Buffalo misfired in both of those spots, and
Speaker 2: there were some people with some deep pockets that lost
Speaker 2: money in both those games. What's really interesting over the
Speaker 2: past two weeks that has not been as much of
Speaker 2: the case that the market has not been as hot
Speaker 2: after Buffalo as they were the last two weeks are
Speaker 2: the ones that Buffalo won. So it seems like the
Speaker 2: Buffalo team that the Sharps wanted to see week two
Speaker 2: and three they finally showed up week four. And as
Speaker 2: far as Bowling Green, they have one of the more
Speaker 2: prototypical mac starts of their season as a as in
Speaker 2: contrast to what I was talking about with ken State,
Speaker 2: where Ken State plays that you know, like the the
Speaker 2: Golias or whatever, Bowling Green to this point they've gotten
Speaker 2: the thing of where they've gotten the They played two
Speaker 2: poor opponents one and another G five opponent, and then
Speaker 2: then they took their medicine on the two road games
Speaker 2: to the you know, the blue Bloods or whatever. But
Speaker 2: like they they lost their their games very similar scores
Speaker 2: to UCLA and Missippi State on the road. They also
Speaker 2: had lost at home to Eastern Kentucky, which is the
Speaker 2: embarrassing loss for Bowling Green so far. But they did
Speaker 2: catch Marshall sort of with their pants down that week
Speaker 2: that Marshall was coming off the big upset win against
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, Bowling Green ambushed them the next week won
Speaker 2: by a field goal. Then this past week they go
Speaker 2: to Akron and Bowling Green was a Jews favorite. They
Speaker 2: only win by three points in that game against this
Speaker 2: Acron team that has been been very bad. It's hard
Speaker 2: for me to get my finger on Bowling Green right now,
Speaker 2: a team whose performance has gone it's been, uh, you know,
Speaker 2: going up and down by this much week to week,
Speaker 2: where you can lose at home to a mediocre FCS team,
Speaker 2: and then you can beat a team that just beat
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, you know, et cetera. And then when you
Speaker 2: play down against a team like Akron that shouldn't be
Speaker 2: beating any even average MAC opponent right now, or even
Speaker 2: slightly below average MAC upon it, which I feel like
Speaker 2: bull and Green. That's what they were expecting to be
Speaker 2: this year. That's what they've sort of been building towards.
Speaker 2: So I it's it's a hard one of trying to
Speaker 2: figure out, like where your finger is on both these teams,
Speaker 2: because they have been so hard to get your your
Speaker 2: finger on. But I do think that I'm I would
Speaker 2: be on Buffalo in in this game. Again, it seems
Speaker 2: like they have finally turned the corner to being what
Speaker 2: the sharps in the marketplace, what they had wanted them
Speaker 2: to be previously, whereas Bull and Green they're just so
Speaker 2: up and down, up and down. The thing with Bull
Speaker 2: and Green is they can catch the sunlight in like
Speaker 2: we've seen this the past couple of years. The Marshall game,
Speaker 2: of course, was not the first September ambush we've seen
Speaker 2: in the past. They did that to Minnesota as well.
Speaker 2: That one was on the road, But it's like in
Speaker 2: the other games where there's not as big as the lights,
Speaker 2: that's where they play sort of the expectations. For me,
Speaker 2: I prefer Buffalo right now, with where that number is,
Speaker 2: I think Buffalo should be favored. My line on it
Speaker 2: is Buffalo minus three point two and.
Speaker 1: Let's cap it all off. Your one final game Oregon
Speaker 1: in Arizona. U of a getting ten and a half
Speaker 1: at home right now. But Oregon, I don't know, what
Speaker 1: do you think about them? What do you make of
Speaker 1: this team? Is the pack twell doesn't have many great
Speaker 1: schools left after the next couple of years with the accident,
Speaker 1: Is Oregon all that's remaining?
Speaker 2: Uh well, no, I mean of course you got USC.
Speaker 2: You know they're gonna have to figure out I'm.
Speaker 1: Talking about yeah, I'm talking about down the road here with.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, after the exodus maybe yeah, yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean when, and we'll have to see what the pieces
Speaker 2: look like, you know, I mean like because obviously USC
Speaker 2: and UCLI are not going to be they were just
Speaker 2: the first dominoes. But we'll have to see what the
Speaker 2: reconstituted thing looks like. But Oregon has looked okay so far,
Speaker 2: especially when you bring your mind back to that opening
Speaker 2: game against Georgia, where like, you know, there was some
Speaker 2: thought that Oregon could be a little bit more competitive
Speaker 2: in it. Maybe that upgraded the quarterback from Brown to Knicks.
Speaker 2: Now you had the Georgia defensive coordinator that the architect
Speaker 2: of that defense, Dan Lanning, now he's going against his
Speaker 2: former team, and Georgia wiped the floirt with Oregon. But
Speaker 2: ever since, we all we just totally dropped our expectations
Speaker 2: of Oregon. Yeah, this is like a classic life. But
Speaker 2: it's like then, they've sort of turned into what we
Speaker 2: thought they were going to be initially. They've won the
Speaker 2: four games since then, and they've looked pretty good and
Speaker 2: doing it. I mean, they slapped around BYU when BYU
Speaker 2: came into that game as a top fifteen team in
Speaker 2: terms of the polls. They won that Washington State game,
Speaker 2: which maybe they didn't play as well as like you
Speaker 2: would have liked heading in, but Washington State. Again, going
Speaker 2: back to what we were talking about before, they're a
Speaker 2: better team than we thought they were going to be.
Speaker 2: And also you have to give Oregon credit for prevailing
Speaker 2: in the circumstances of what became one of the wildest
Speaker 2: fourth quarters of any game played this season. So I mean,
Speaker 2: you at least have to tip your cap to Oregon
Speaker 2: for that, for coming out on the right side of that.
Speaker 2: And then they whip Stanford last week, which they absolutely
Speaker 2: should out. But it's a good mark, you know, it's
Speaker 2: a mark of a good team. To conform to expectations
Speaker 2: in a game like that, in a match up like that,
Speaker 2: because of course, Stanford has a couple of players that
Speaker 2: give them a puncher's chance in a game against a
Speaker 2: superior opponent that's overlooking them, and Oregon clearly wasn't last time.
Speaker 2: So I'm starting to trust Oregon a bit more. My
Speaker 2: numbers certainly are in this game, my numbers. This is
Speaker 2: one of my biggest discrepancies between what my opening line
Speaker 2: is and the market's opening line. My line on this
Speaker 2: game is Oregon minus sixteen and a half. The market
Speaker 2: opened it at ten and a half. Oregon minus ten
Speaker 2: and a half. I think the market even though seems
Speaker 2: like the market had gotten higher and higher and higher.
Speaker 2: On Arizona, you know the fighting jed Fishers through the
Speaker 2: first four weeks of the season, and justifiably so, right like,
Speaker 2: they had upset San Diego State by double digits in
Speaker 2: the first game, they had beaten North Dakota State, who, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's an FCS team, but a goliath of an FCS team,
Speaker 2: a team where if they were in the FBS over
Speaker 2: the last decade, a lot of those seasons they would
Speaker 2: have like, I'm not going out on a limb here,
Speaker 2: they would have finished qualitatively as a top half of
Speaker 2: the FBS team. That's where the debate begins. Like me
Speaker 2: living in Minneapolis, a lot of my buddies are NDSU fans,
Speaker 2: so like they'll argue with you till you're blue, until
Speaker 2: they're blue in the face. That NDY issue could like
Speaker 2: hang in the Big ten, maybe not compete certainly, but
Speaker 2: like that that they would still be making balls there.
Speaker 2: Or you know, if they went to the MAC what
Speaker 2: you know what what they just absolutely wiped the floor
Speaker 2: of people. I think they that they would. But Arizona
Speaker 2: had put together a pretty good resume up until last
Speaker 2: week when there was some sharps out there that felt
Speaker 2: that they were going to go onto Cow and upset them.
Speaker 2: And the game did not go as well for Arizona
Speaker 2: as some of those initial ones had, where they were,
Speaker 2: you know, sort of going above expectations. And in this one,
Speaker 2: this is going to provide an even stiffer test for
Speaker 2: them because of the athletes that Oregon has jud Fish
Speaker 2: labored over the offseason in attacking with aggression, the transfer
Speaker 2: portal trying and and and also I will say that
Speaker 2: his high school class because he signed a top twenty
Speaker 2: five high school class, but he was looking for projectable
Speaker 2: athletic type guys to fit into the formation with a
Speaker 2: nod to matchups like this. He has brought the talent
Speaker 2: level Jetfish of Arizona way up in relativity to what
Speaker 2: we usually expect from a year to year basis, but
Speaker 2: he is still now he's trying to build up to
Speaker 2: at least not be embarrassed in that regard against a
Speaker 2: team like Oregon where you're putting athletes in on islands
Speaker 2: and you just can't trust them whatever. Arizona is not
Speaker 2: quite there yet. And I again, I'm surprised that the
Speaker 2: market is still not that it's not that I think
Speaker 2: the market should be out on Arizona for losing that
Speaker 2: one game, because I actually think Cal's better this year
Speaker 2: than they've been, like, you know, like that's you know whatever,
Speaker 2: but that the market did not toggle Arizona down a
Speaker 2: bit more than they did. It seems like we're still
Speaker 2: getting that bullishness. And meanwhile, we're still getting a little
Speaker 2: bit of doubt towards Oregon, where at least me personally,
Speaker 2: I feel like Oregon has addressed that doubt since and
Speaker 2: who knows I mean maybe for some people, not only
Speaker 2: are they the sort of not acknowledging what Oregon has
Speaker 2: done since that Georgia loss, but they are now sort
Speaker 2: of compounding it with Oh, Georgia struggled against Kent State
Speaker 2: and Missouri the last two weeks, and so you know,
Speaker 2: this Oregon team that I already didn't want to trust,
Speaker 2: that was the team that they got whipped by, and
Speaker 2: they're clearly not ires. You know, like, however you would
Speaker 2: justify that to yourself. I don't buy into that line
Speaker 2: of thinking though, Like I qualitatively, Oregon has several steps
Speaker 2: ahead of Arizona. I think they're going to provide him
Speaker 2: with some matchup problems as well. This is a line
Speaker 2: that I would expect to be closer to fourteen come
Speaker 2: kickoff time. I'm surprised that it opened up where it did,
Speaker 2: but I do expect the market to correct that and
Speaker 2: to bring that line closer to what my ad Justice
Speaker 2: line is. I don't think it's get all the way
Speaker 2: up to what my number is by the time kickof
Speaker 2: is sixteen and a half. So there could be value
Speaker 2: for Oregon better throughout the week.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, thora that is going to wrap it up.
Speaker 1: Here once again, if people want to check out the
Speaker 1: rest of your work for the week ahead, where are
Speaker 1: they going to want to go?
Speaker 2: You go on my Twitter at thor ku or go
Speaker 2: to Betting pros is where all the columns drop that
Speaker 2: I do between the power rankings that will be out
Speaker 2: whenever you're listening to this, they'll be out on the
Speaker 2: site early week notes, injury notes, coaching notes. I'll be
Speaker 2: jumping into the Carl Durrell firing in that column this week,
Speaker 2: and then going into some of the injuries, like you know,
Speaker 2: I mean again with college football not having the injury report.
Speaker 2: That's something that for the first time people in Minneapolis
Speaker 2: got furious about yesterday because mo Ibraheim, the Minnesota superstar
Speaker 2: running back who nobody nationally or locally had reported anything
Speaker 2: was wrong with. Mo Ibraheim was ruled out from the
Speaker 2: Purdue game like fifteen minutes before a kickoff. And so
Speaker 2: you know, in that column, we can't get college football, unfortunately,
Speaker 2: to change and to allow us to put out the
Speaker 2: injury apart. We talked about this before with the hip
Speaker 2: with regards to the hippolas and stuff like that, but
Speaker 2: in my column, I try to go as deep as
Speaker 2: I can, as far as finding updated injury information of
Speaker 2: unexpected scratches, what are the statuses of those guys? Is
Speaker 2: that going to affect the line coming up? Injuries that
Speaker 2: occurred on Saturday or Friday or Thursday if it was
Speaker 2: a game then and how that could affect the line,
Speaker 2: the prognost to those guys and stuff like that, and
Speaker 2: then of course the coaching changes. And then also games
Speaker 2: that I'm looking at where I think you can get
Speaker 2: line value early in the week by betting them because
Speaker 2: they're games that I expect the lines to move during
Speaker 2: the week.
Speaker 1: All right, And of course you can also catch your
Speaker 1: podcast on Wednesday with Scott Bogman for Betting Pros, where
Speaker 1: you guys break down the week ahead and do not
Speaker 1: miss the Saturday morning live stream ten am East in
Speaker 1: time each and every week you and Mike Farrell going
Speaker 1: over everything that anyone needs to know, asking getting any
Speaker 1: questions from the chat in a live stream to break
Speaker 1: down the entire Saturday slate. But guys, that is gonna
Speaker 1: do it for us today. Be sure to check back
Speaker 1: next week and let's cash some tickets.